JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


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Climate Change will make coffee extinct or something like that

The terror. Sit down I tell you.  The ABC tells us that you should “Grab a latte while you still can”.

Coffee beans

Coffee beans  |Image wiki Hesham Raouf

In full, the true catastrophe is that if the models that are always wrong get something right, some wild coffee relatives, but not actual coffee crop plants, might go extinct. We don’t use them for coffee but you never know, we might one day use them as breeding stock. It’s that serious.

And we can’t save the seeds because apparently liquid nitrogen is too expensive. Wail. Gnash. Fawn.

Since bulk liquid nitrogen is cheaper than spring water, I rank this one as a Prime SkyWhale Class Scare, it’s all hot-air and scary for the wrong reason. You are meant to be afraid of the end of coffee, but what’s really frightening is that science journalism is dead instead.

By Belinda Smith and Nick Kilvert, ABC Australia

Most coffee species at risk of extinction due to climate change, scientists warn

The set up:

You might also want to sit down before reading this. And maybe grab another latte while you still can.

Of the 124 wild coffee species worldwide, UK researchers have declared at least 60 per cent of them in danger of dying out.

There might be science there:

In a paper published in Science Advances today, the researchers warn we need to beef up existing conservation plans, because the ones we have in place now are “inadequate”.

Stick to Climate 101 reporting rule: Good things die, Bad things go viral.

But with deforestation and a changing climate, which brings unpredictable rain, pests and fungal diseases, coffee farmers will be hit hard.

A 2016 report by The Climate Institute found worldwide coffee production could be cut in half by 2050.

We’re already seeing declining production and quality in some traditional coffee-growing regions, said Robert Henry, a plant geneticist at the University of Queensland who was not involved in the research.

Need some condescension?

So why not store coffee beans in a seed bank? Unfortunately, it’s not that simple.

“It is difficult, perhaps impossible, to conserve coffee using conventional seed storage methods,” Dr Davis said.

This is because seed bank storage freezers, even at -20 degrees Celsius, don’t cut it when it comes to preserving coffee beans.

They need to be chilled by liquid nitrogen — a costly process.

Price of liquid nitrogen: allow for doubling since 2007 and it’s still $1 per gallon. Less than coke.

If the government stopped funding renewables for 24 hours they could save wild coffee seeds.

Let’s check. Here’s what excess fossil fuel emissions have done to coffee production

Looks like coffee has been relentlessly increasing. It has doubled since 1977. Another 100 years of this kind of climate change and we will be drowning in the stuff. Get out your life jackets.

Global Coffee Production, Graph, FAO

Global Coffee Production, Graph, FAO

.Ho hum.

Skywhale

Scary like the SkyWhale

Skywhale image by Nick-D   | Coffee beans  Image Hesham Raouf

h/t Dave B, Bill, George.

VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
Rating: 9.7/10 (75 votes cast)
Climate Change will make coffee extinct or something like that, 9.7 out of 10 based on 75 ratings

237 comments to Climate Change will make coffee extinct or something like that

  • #

    You must be training us well Jo, I heard this “piece” on the ABC radio this morning and thought along the lines you did, though I did not know liquid N was reasonably cheap. I wonder what figures there are of improved coffee yields due to tiny increases in CO2 which should improve the efficiency of the the coffee plant the same as it does every other crop.

    302

    • #
      el gordo

      A recent paper gives elevated CO2 the thumbs up.

      ‘Realistic plantation conditions were used to demonstrate that elevated [CO2] stimulates photosynthesis, growth and crop yield in the coffee tree, suggesting that is a suitable crop under elevated [CO2]; additionally, leaf miner incidence is reduced during the expected high infestation period.

      ‘Given the multiplicative nature of growth, CO2 fertilisation is expected to stimulate more branches and nodes for anchoring more fruits over time, which, in parallel with the up regulation of photosynthesis, may potentially enhance crop yield in future harvests.’

      Raquel Ghini et al 2018

      250

      • #
        Environment Skeptic

        Maybe they meant elevated like CO2 on mountain tops, sky scrapers, and other elevated places, Elevated CO2 levels also seem to be fostering good growth, and new branches of politics, actually lots of branches and lots of growth and also CO2 stimulation in the field of solar panels that are helping to keep real estate values up by adding value to homes at very low interest rates.
        The m,ind boggles a how multiplicative the nature of growth and CO2 really are….

        Nice word that on…“multiplicative”, not a tinny sounding word at all.

        90

    • #
      Mary E

      If you check back a few years, the “crisis” was a glut, and the hysteria was that the farmers were making pennies on the dollar, if that. Too much production, too low prices. It was a market issue, not climate, and many a white US citizen was made to feel guilty for drinking a cheap cup of coffee.

      http://www.ico.org/documents/globalcrisise.pdf

      Methinks the issue remains a problem of too much coffee, to little payment to those who grow and harvest the beans. Mostly harvest, as I’m sure quite a few, if not most, of the plantations are corporate owned. At any rate, there is more than enough coffee being harvested, which means there are more than enough coffee bushes being grown. Also, as mentioned elsewhere here, the CO2 levels are being enjoyed by the plants on the planet – not only growing and thriving with the extra boost in food, but able to fend off pests and diseases better.

      The people who think most of us will run screaming to the bank to fund the next windmill or solar energy plant upon reading this are the same ones who tried to make us feel guilty that so much coffee was being grown – and sold at low prices – and will be the first to complain when the gourmet coffee shops up their prices in response.

      130

  • #
    robert rosicka

    Sky news have just chimed in following the ABC blindly , it was fake news last year and is still fake news this year .
    You only have to google world coffee production to know they have had record production over the last two years , not hard to research .

    301

    • #
      el gordo

      The TV industry bring in the rookies during the silly season, to hold the fort while they enjoy the break.

      160

      • #
        wal1957

        You don’t need rookies, I can guarantee you on that!
        Most so-called journalists sensationalise, especially these days.
        That is why I don’t bother with news services anymore.
        They are generally distorted opinion pieces.

        210

  • #
    Environment Skeptic

    Nah, nitrogen is so passé

    A decent cascade refrigeration system gets minus 100 degrees Celsius much more economically.

    Basically the first freezer cools the hot side of the second freezer circuit so that a much lower temperature can be achieved..

    The Applied Science you tube personality even shows how to repair one if things get tough.

    Personally i am interested in making a freeze dryer to preserve food produce rather than not knowing what to do with it all. Peaches, stone fruit etc….

    “Ultra low-temperature cascade refrigeration system repair”
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mzeRvdnIP-I

    80

    • #
      Environment Skeptic

      If minus 200 is absolutely necessary for coffee, then Stirling cycle would be the go…about 1000 US dollars online from china region.
      “Liquid Nitrogen Generator – Overview
      “This liquid nitrogen generator uses a Stirling-cycle cryocooler…”
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7PWESWqhD8s

      60

      • #
        Environment Skeptic

        Going low energy high efficiency with a Stirling cycle cryo cooler could see every house having their own crycooler to preserve seeds and various essential DNA’s thus forming a nation wide Australian owned seed bank grid system. Centralised seed banks and putting them all in one place leaves little to fall back on if the power goes out in the location of perhaps a coffee seed bank for example. A national cryo grid is the way forward for Aussie extinction battlers.

        80

      • #
        Graeme No.3

        Environmental Skeptic:

        Liquid nitrogen is a by-product of liquid oxygen (or compressed oxygen in cylinders).
        Also there is a giant seed saving Unit on Svalbaad. Just a matter of collecting the seeds. David Bellamy (Botanic Man) was doing so years ago before he was booted out of the BBC and his University.

        80

    • #
      Curious George

      Use a “dry ice”, a solid form of a cheap and abundant carbon dioxide.

      60

  • #
    George

    Coffee potential production area would expand in Australia, if there was significant warming.
    At the moment the limit is just past the Qld NSW border.
    I grow it in Sydney, but it is very prone to frost damage.
    Surely a warmer climate would mean more coffee trees, not less.

    240

    • #
      el gordo

      True, but they are suggesting that human induced global warming will make the tropics hotter and destroy this delectable product. Which is a fallacy because they have already told us that the coldest places will warm the fastest and that is not happening.

      Warm days and cold nights are good for growth, but frost will knock them back.

      170

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        Surely we have reached peak stupid with this whole malarky…..

        200

        • #
          ivan

          You never reach peak stupid!

          190

        • #
          Yonniestone

          What’s he that wishes so?
          My cousin Stevemoreland? No, my fair cousin:
          If we are mark’d to laugh, we are enow
          To do our hostess loss; and if to see,
          The fewer truths, the greater sense of humour.

          50

        • #
          sophocles

          OriginalSteve was heard to ask:

          Surely we have reached peak stupid with this whole malarky…..

          You wish! :-)
          I’m sort of surprised The Wowsers chose coffee, a tropical plant thoroughly enjoying the largess of its favourite food (CO2) and growing to excess :-) . I rather thought they might choose something else, something which has teetered on the edge of `crisis’ for some time: the Cavendish Banana. Both plants sequester CO2.

          No, Peak Stupid is some way away yet. They haven’t detected Climate Change in our sleeping positions, nor are they declaiming on `required exercise.’ … Yet.
          But as soon as someone can write new modules for the models …

          50

      • #
        Greg

        It’s the arctic and antarctic coffee plantations that are at risk

        160

        • #
          Dennis

          But iced coffee is popular.

          sarc.

          120

        • #
          sophocles

          I don’t care: I don’t drink coffee, I’m fond of the Camellia, Camellia sinensis actually, aka Tea.
          I put coffee aside when it started giving me an acid stomach. There is no point to drinking something which makes one uncomfortable. Tea doesn’t, so it stays. Iced tea can be nice. There’s the green teas, the black teas and the white teas. Lots of variety and flavours.

          40

          • #
            sophocles

            They will annoy me if they attack the cacao crop. Life with `Climate Changed’ chocolate … yeah right.

            20

    • #
      ATheoK

      Bingo, George!

      Higher CO₂ levels mean better vegetative growth.

      Warming, if it ever really happens, means an expanded range for all coffee tree relatives.

      Alarmists, wasting everyone time and funds decrying imaginary things the alarmists believe will cause the greatest distress.
      Alarmists are false on every level.

      40

  • #
    Phoenix 44

    Wow, so assume bad stuff will happen and that will mean bad stuff happens.

    These scientists sure are clever.

    120

    • #
      Another Ian

      Assume

      The word that makes an “ass” out of “u” and “me”

      170

    • #
      Graham Richards

      They’re not as clever as Kevin Rudd. He’s known about the demise of coffee for years. That’s the reason he had Twinnings develop his special blend of Australian Afternoon Tea for him.
      There’s no flies on our Kevin…..only the spots they left behind!

      30

      • #
        Jonesy

        Bloody Hell! That blend got me drinking tea again…had to search the provenance and sure enough..Bloody Rudd blended the tea in a competition back in 2011. Stuffit, Im just going to have to blank that out of my memory bank otherwise I will never enjoy my favourite cuppa again.

        30

  • #

    Anti-life-globulists, tsk,
    would deny us liberty
    -freedom to venture
    into dangerous spaces,
    like Captain Cook voyaging
    to the Antipodes, or Darwin,
    heck, really don’t go there …
    that’s Nature’s trial and error,
    Laws of Biology and Identity,
    and we’re not even to be allowed
    a cup of coffee – evil sapiens!!
    back to the Inquisition, the
    Dark Ages and slavery.

    160

  • #
    el gordo

    This coffee thing is old news, as Robert said earlier, so I’ll talk about climate around the equator.

    Under the sway of human induced global warming the Madden Julian Oscillation should intensify, but the klimatariat has no faith in their own prediction. They are not sure whether the winds will be stronger or weaker with a more intense MJO.

    By comparison Ian Wilson is not dithering.

    ‘My collaborator and I are currently submitting a paper that shows that lunar influence upon the MJO leads to the initiation of moderate to strong El Nino events roughly once every 4 to 5 years.’

    As you know a strong El Nino can cause havoc to coffee plantations, so predicting ENSO behaviour would be a boon.

    81

  • #

    [...] Nova on the alarming news that we better get coffee while we can. Let’s check. Here’s what excess fossil fuel emissions have done to coffee [...]

    40

  • #
    Mark M

    For some, the very thought of no morning coffee induces climate madness …

    “Though I learned to find a way of looking unwaveringly at what was happening to the planet, I fell into a deep depression and I began to wonder whether there was any point in even writing about this.

    Given the fact that a rapid increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere coincided with previous mass extinctions and that we could well be facing our own extinction, we should be asking ourselves, “How shall I use this precious time?”

    > Up the meds, or more coffee might be the best way forward for such folk.

    For the doomsday non-believers, the laughs continue …

    In Facing Mass Extinction, We Must Allow Ourselves to Grieve

    https://truthout.org/articles/in-facing-mass-extinction-we-dont-need-hope-we-need-to-grieve/

    One more time for the red-thumber:

    Worst Apocalypse. Ever.

    110

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Mark that bloke is very depressed and very depressing to read as well.

      I wonder what he thinks of his own just published book “The End of Ice”now that mother nature is freezing the butts off everybody in the Northern hemisphere And the Arctic ice sheet is growing

      10

      • #
        Another Ian

        Bill

        That would seem to follow the model of many “how to” books which is that not so well known volume

        “How to do it and not get it”

        Written by

        “One who did it, got it and can’t get rid of it”

        10

  • #
    Hivemind

    I always thought that it looked more like a sky turkey. In any case, the ACT government wasted an obscene amount of money on it.

    70

  • #
    Roy Hogue

    Cheer up folks, there is enormous relief if coffee goes extinct. If no more coffee then we will not ever again have to listen to anyone telling us coffee is bad for us.

    There, see how easily problems can be solved if you just look for the positive side of no more coffee. :-)

    120

  • #

    It’s coming for your coffee! Wake up and smell the climate change, deniers!

    Really, Edward Bernays himself would be proud of this latest psychological rocket. Forget reason. Always work through emotion and the senses. Give the punters roasted coffee beans, sizzling steaks and bloodied bayonets, then they’ll buy.

    120

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      You mean like

      “Daddy…what did you do in the war
      ( against non existant climate change)?”

      61

      • #
        Yonniestone

        “Well son I cleared my head of any rational thoughts and completely embraced Green ideology,
        our self appointed masters had to be obeyed no matter how much of your future I was throwing away,
        now get the blankets and soy candles, the snows piling up and this Brisbane winter is a bad one.”

        91

  • #
    PeterPetrum

    I seem to remember this story from at least three years ago. It was wrong then and it is wrong now (just look at Jo’s graphs). Something to to with PNG or Brazil, not sure which now.

    This really is bottom of the barrel stuff, mindless regurgitation without checking the archives, thinking we would not remember and we would believe that this is “new” information.

    Sigh!

    100

  • #
    Peter C

    Off Topic Here,

    But maybe some one knows.

    What is the capacity factor for solar cells in various places in Australia; Melbourne, Sydney, Adelaide , Perth?

    30

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      PeterC:

      Sorry, I have lost the reference but there are calculators that generate the expected output for what postcode you input e.g.
      https://solarcalculator.com.au/solar-panel-output/

      or https://www.lgenergy.com.au/calculator/suburb/gravesend-nsw/2401

      Somewhere there is a calculator that gives you a percentage capacity factor apparently linked to BoM data from a nearby town if you are in the countryside, and presumably city. I used it some years ago but I have lost the sales type brochure.

      20

      • #
        Peter C

        Thanks Graeme,

        The second reference works well. It gives the average daily output for a 1kW system (under ideal setup conditions) by postcode. From that I could quickly calculate that the capacity factor for sunny Horsham is 24% but for my area of Melbourne it is just 14%.

        That is an average over the whole year. In winter I would get just over 1kW/day average. Probably near to zero on the rainy days.

        20

    • #
      John in Oz

      Mt Barker, SA (35 deg South)
      4.3hrs/day average over 8 years
      North facing, 22.5 deg roof pitch, no shading from trees, buildings, etc

      From memory, this is the average sunshine hours I saw when I first considered solar (for the cost benefit, not ‘green’ reasons) but cannot remember the reference

      40

      • #
        Graeme No.3

        John in Oz

        Your figure for % generation would be 17% based on BoM solar readings in Charleston.

        00

        • #

          After keeping daily records now for 28 weeks all up, The Capacity Factor (CF) for rooftop solar here in Australia is pretty much average.

          Now, there is no absolutely accurate total nameplate for rooftop solar, but recent reports have it up over 8000MW, so I’m basing the CF around that figure of 8000MW, and keep in mind here that if it is booming and that Nameplate is higher, then the CF will be lower.

          Last week, for probably the best week of Mid Summer so far, with the greatest time of Insolation, so, higher peak, longer hours, and the Sun closer to directly overhead at Midday, that CF came in at 16.32%.

          The average CF over the 28 weeks I have been keeping these records comes in 13.3%

          Tony.

          70

          • #
            Bill In Oz

            Tony your work on this is really a valuable resource.

            It shows just how poor renewable power is at supplying the normal demand for power…And the clear essential need for coal & gas electricity generating plants in Australia.

            30

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        I’m also in Mt Barker SA.

        I considered solar for the same reason ( the cost of mains power ! ) a while back ( 2012). But with the neighbors tall trees in her backyard it was not worth it. Even now after having pruned the branches of her trees back to the fence line, it’s not worth it.

        40

        • #

          Keep in mind here that this is Mid Summer, so rooftop solar is at its absolute best.

          The highest total power generation so far this Summer, always in that two hour period around midday, has been 4800MW, and even that is only at a CF of 60%, and that’s at its absolute maximum.

          Tony.

          60

        • #
          yarpos

          Impractical to install on a ground frame?

          10

  • #
    TdeF

    I’m missing something. Why are coffee beans so perishable, so different from all other beans and seeds?
    You would think all the world’s life was so fragile. Coral. Polar bears. Caribou. Now coffee beans.

    Or is it that the elite coffee drinkers of the ABC are worried that Global Warming will impact their life style dramatically. If you really want to scare them outside Australia, threaten Prosecco in the UK or avocado. Or the Kale or Quinoa supply. The angst would be dreadful.

    100

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      The seeds of most tropical species do not take well to being frozen..There is no need for such an evolved trait in the warm tropics.

      ..Unlike the seeds of plants which come from temperate climates where being able to survive extreme cold is a useful evolved trait.

      The news that coffee seeds can survive being frozen in Nitrogen is ‘new’ to me. Useful !

      90

      • #
        Tdef

        As I remember the coffee bean potential was spotted by goat herders in Ethiopia in the 16th century. Equatorial but not tropical. More arid. Cold nights at altitude too. The bean swept the Middle East and then Europe as a tea alternative. I think tea was more fragile until they found a low altitude strain. Prior to that it was the mountains of China and the Himalayas.
        I still would like to understand the alleged problem. Like all plants there are diverse species too. I still suspect this is a fabricated concern.

        90

        • #
          Bill In Oz

          Tdef
          Good source of info on coffee plants here : https://infogalactic.com/info/Coffea

          40

        • #
          Another Ian

          TdeF

          “I still suspect this is a fabricated concern.”

          Can you think of one around this paddock that wasn’t?

          80

        • #
          theRealUniverse

          The tea plant was stolen from China by the British (18th cent) and planted in Ceylon (Sri Lanka).

          50

          • #
            TdeF

            Yes, I though that was true too. A Scotsman who spoke fluent Chinese and brought plants out of China. However they did not prosper. Other explorers and adventurers found a similar Himalayan plant in Simla on the slopes of the Himalayas. This was a long established story of high adventure in Northern India. 3 days by elephant, disbelief by British botanists who denied it true or even possible, but it was the real start of the India tea story. A famous story in India. However the real breakthrough was finding a variety of tea bush which would grow in the South, in Tamil Nadu. Then tea exports really took off.

            Possibly my point is that selection happens in plants as well as animals. Surely in the potentially enormous gene pool of coffee beans there is enough variety to find some which will survive and even thrive in changed conditions? This story is the usual do not change anything nonsense. It seems the world is perfect right now, so species selection and thus adaption is forbidden by politicians, no less. In fact, we are close to legislating an end to Natural Selection.

            70

            • #
              el gordo

              The coffee grew well in Ceylon until a blight wiped out all the plantations, so they decided to grow tea.

              20

      • #
        beowulf

        Bill, I don’t know how much agronomy/botany you know, but you’re drawing a very long bow with your assertion. The vast majority of seeds in the world are not designed to be frozen, but nevertheless freeze and maintain their viability very well. It has zero to do with being a tropical or temperate species. Some hard seeds are par-boiled to initiate germination. Last time I looked, boiling was not something seeds were adapted to. I seem to recall somewhere that human embryos are frozen too. Is that only for Siberian humans or does it demonstrate a wider biological ability to be frozen then thaw and grow?

        The Svalbard seed bank stores seed at minus 18 deg C and holds species from all over the world (not just arctic regions) including sorghum, bean species, cow peas, soybeans, chick peas, peanuts, none of which are designed to be frozen solid in nature. Things like sorghum, beans and cow peas are tropical/sub-tropical originally. They would be lucky to see a frost. Let alone be frozen solid.

        Seeds simply react differently to the same conditions. Nothing to do with being tropical or temperate or arctic. Sorry.

        70

        • #
          Bill In Oz

          Beowulf, it used to be area I specialised in as a seed saver.

          Take a look here for an interesting outline of this issue :https://pubag.nal.usda.gov/catalog/2945678

          30

          • #
            beowulf

            Bill
            Good abstract, but it doesn’t support your assertion that the seeds of “most tropical species” are unable to handle freezing. “Most” is an awful lot of species to generalise about, especially when we know common species of tropical/subtropical origin DO handle freezing. More importantly it says nothing about genetic adaptation to freezing which is what your comment emphasised.

            The only species noted in the paper are all soft-fruited. It is not surprising that they might fail since the initial stage of freezing seed involves drying it. It isn’t the cold that kills the seed, it is the desiccation. A lot of seeds cannot stand being desiccated particularly if they are soft-fruited species from humid environments. Contrast that with eucalypt seed that comes pre-desiccated off the tree. That is the major issue that seed banks have yet to overcome in threatened species preservation. It is a problem across the board in plants from many climatic zones.

            Coffee isn’t soft fruited in that sense but apparently doesn’t like minus 18 — it is however quite happy at minus 320 C!! That’s some mean cold adaptation there in a tropical species.

            No tropical or sub-tropical seeds are designed to be frozen solid in the wild, but the majority of such domesticated species handle freeze-storage. Nothing to do with genetic adaptation to cold though; it has everything to do with random genetics.

            20

    • #

      Coffee beans are good to store for several years in the raw state. I follow a 2/2/2 rule, namely, green coffee is good for two years, roasted coffee is good for two weeks and ground coffee is good for two minutes. (It’s more common for people to follow a 3/3/3 rule, but it’s so easy for me to roast around here just using a popcorn popper on my deck that there’s no need to stretch things out to three weeks.)

      While rancidity and staleness are big probs once coffee is roasted (so yeah, a lot of people are drinking stale coffee) green beans are one of the most durable and storable foodstuffs around. To tell the truth, I’ve never known them to go off, ever. These days heirloom coffees are popular (I’ve got an old Mexican varietal on the way from Melbourne right now) and if a coffee is any good someone will grow it. Anyway, nitrogen is cheap and straightforward if it’s really needed to conserve a few strains.

      The Advances paper is bunk and the ABC is, of course, bunk.

      140

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      TdeF:
      You can’t freeze coral, and polar bears and Caribou take up too much space in the freezer, so what else could the Green Gullibles choose to work up a scare? They’ve already tried the coming Beer shortage via barley being hit by GlobalWarming©.
      Barley grows from North Africa to Iceland in the northern hemisphere so that didn’t get much traction.

      They are gtting desperate as they loose public support.

      90

    • #
      sophocles

      … you forgot bananas. They’ve been in `crisis’ for decades now.

      50

  • #
    robert rosicka

    I’ve lost count but so far it’s been -
    Coffee
    Fish
    Beer
    Wine
    Wheat
    ?????
    And whatever ABC makes up next week .

    120

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      And meat is banned as well – Bugger !

      90

      • #
        Robert R

        I wonder if AGW “experts” will become extinct due to global warming?
        The scorching, blistering heat could put an end to them perhaps?

        80

    • #
      EternalOptimist

      I’ve been on a diet of micro plastic beads for nearly three weeks now. I get a subsidy from the EU, as much as I can eat, a free laptop.
      The only downside is the large school of pike that chase me down the street every time I go out.

      150

  • #
    pat

    hahahahaha…

    17 Jan: ScienceDaily: Economist find a global tax on carbon may be feasible
    Source: Georgia State University
    There is a consistently high level of public support across nations for a global carbon tax if the tax policy is carefully designed, according to a survey of people in the United States, India, the United Kingdom, South Africa and Australia.
    The research was published in Nature…

    “Imposing a cost on carbon is the most economically efficient way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions,” said economist and lead author Stefano Carattini, an assistant professor in Georgia State University’s Andrew Young School of Policy Studies. “Our research shows that a system of harmonized carbon taxes, in which countries agree on the tax rate but maintain control over tax revenues, would be the easiest way to achieve a global carbon price.”…

    In the survey, 5,000 respondents from the five countries were asked their opinions on different carbon tax designs and whether they would support a carbon tax to be implemented in their country in 2020, if this was also done in all other countries.

    The majority of the respondents — from 60 percent in the United States to above 80 percent in India — supported carbon taxes in scenarios where revenues are given back to people ***or spent on climate projects…
    LINK TO NATURE
    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/01/190117092556.htm

    LSE Grantham Institute: Stefano Carattini, Visiting Fellow
    He studies energy and environmental policy, behavioral economics, public economics, and political economy. His research combines policy evaluation, to examine how policies work, with empirical analyses of their political economy. He has also been working on cooperative (pro-social) behavior and the diffusion of green behaviors, practices, and technologies…
    Stefano is one of the recipients of the Heinz König Young Scholar Award, delivered by the Mannheim Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW). Prior to joining Georgia State, he was an Associate Research Scientist at Yale University, where he was also a Lecturer in the School of Public Health. He obtained a PhD in Economics from the University of Barcelona and a MSc in Economics from the University of Lausanne. He also holds a BA in Socio-economics from the University of Geneva…

    LINK FOR A PIC OF THE VERY SMOOTH ASST PROF CARATTINI
    https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2019-01/gsu-rlb011619.php

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      pat

      Carattini clearly didn’t wish to survey the French. Climate Home are not the people to analyse the situation there either, but provide a few comedic moments:

      17 Jan: ClimateChangeNews: Under fire, France’s ‘King Macron’ surveys nation on climate policy
      After two months of disruption, the president seeks public input on four national issues, but gilets jaunes protestors are sceptical
      By Natalie Sauer
      On top of the ecological transition, three broad themes are under discussion: taxes and public spending; democracy and citizenship and the organisation of the state and public services…

      “Hot air, hot air, hot air! What is the purpose of organising a debate if King Macron tells us immediately that he won’t change direction?” said Brigitte, a member of a gilets jaunes Facebook group in Rennes, Brittany.

      Altogether, the survey on the ecological transition puts forward 17 questions on perceptions of climate change, carbon taxes, individual responsibility and awareness of current policies…

      Valérie Masson-Delmotte, a French climate scientist and co-chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), criticised the first question, which asked respondents to pick the “most important, concrete problem in the area of the environment,” from “air pollution”, “coastal degradation”, “climate change (sea level rise, drought)”, “biodiversity and the disappearance of certain species” or other.
      “The first question asks to identify a single priority on subjects that seem to me to be of equal importance. Why?,” Masson-Delmotte tweeted…

      The environment minister also said that heavy vehicles ought also to be taxed, “especially those that only cross France”. He pledged to work with transport minister Elisabeth Borne so that all “transport that emit CO2 [could] contribute”.
      De Rugy also said that taxation was only one method for bringing down carbon emissions and the government wanted to experiment with incentive methods, for example for ***saving energy.
      https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/01/17/fire-frances-king-macron-surveys-nation-climate-policy/

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    Bill In Oz

    The weird thing is that places with a tropical climate, where coffee grows best, are predicted to ‘warm’ the least, under the global warming fake catastrophe scenario. (FAKE GLOBAL WARMING SCARE = FGWS ? )

    It’s the polar regions and higher latitudes which are ‘predicted’ to be most impacted by it.

    And none of the 150 odd coffee species grow in those parts of the planet…

    I do wish the global ‘alwarmists’ would get their story right

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      Bill In Oz

      Tsk tsk, I point out that the ‘AlWarmists’ can’t get their story right and I get a red thumb ?

      Ahhhh the truth is frequently a source of embarresment and so annoyance…

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    EternalOptimist

    tsk tsk. you climate deniers.

    These comments on coffee bean extinction are projections, not predictions. Why does the denialist blogosphere continue to confuse one with the other ? It must be because of some very bad reason.

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      ivan

      Maybe the fact these projections are based on unvalidated and unverified computer models might have something to do with everyone laughing ans calling fake news.

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      Dennis

      Figments of over fertile imaginations.

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    • #
      robert rosicka

      If you read the story you will find it’s both predicted to happen in the future and happening now .

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    • #

      “You might also want to sit down before reading this. And maybe grab another latte while you still can.”

      Actually, it’s not prediction or projection. I think the technical term for it is “more manipulative blather from the ABC based on the latest publish-or-perish twaddle which needed a climate message for its very existence”.

      Of course, a more accurate description of the twaddle would be “publish-then-perish-immediately-to-make-room-for-the-next-shovel-load”. Think of it as a way of employing people. Sort of a green job.

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  • #
    pat

    the Carattinis of this world (comment #15) can look forward to more dough from Jeremy Grantham. check out the photos, enjoy the insanity of the text:

    17 Jan: BloombergBusinessweek: Investing Prophet Jeremy Grantham Takes Aim at Climate Change
    The veteran money manager will devote $1 billion to helping the world escape catastrophe
    By Ben Steverman
    Terrifying an audience is one of Jeremy Grantham’s specialties. The legendary investor, co-founder of Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo (GMO), is famous for predicting doom. And he’s famous for being right, with a remarkable record of spotting investment bubbles before they pop, notably the 2000 tech crash and 2008 financial crisis.

    These days, the topic of Grantham’s warnings is not financial markets but the environment. At universities and investor conferences, gardening clubs and local environmental groups, he gives a talk titled “Race of Our Lives”—the one between the Earth’s rapidly warming temperature and the human beings coming up with ways to fight and adapt to climate change.

    Green technologies, like batteries and solar and wind power, are improving far faster than many realize, he says. Decarbonizing the economy will be an investing bonanza for those who know it’s coming — “the biggest reshuffling of the economy since the Industrial Revolution.” …

    Despite these gains, people are losing the race: Climate change is also accelerating, with consequences so dire that they’re almost impossible to imagine.
    Grantham says he’ll devote 98 percent of his net worth, or about $1 billion, to help humans win the race. Currently he and his wife, Hanne, are giving more than $30 million a year to eight large nonprofits and about 30 smaller ones. Beneficiaries include three academic institutes in the U.K. named after him, at Imperial College London, the London School of Economics, and his alma mater, the University of Sheffield…

    ***“On income inequality, I am left of Karl Marx”

    While the donations fund a variety of climate research and policy projects, Grantham focuses his presentations on overpopulation…
    Grantham’s discussion of overpopulation makes some people uneasy…

    While capitalism “does a million things better than any other system,” he says, it fails completely on long-term threats such as climate change. “You must not expect unnecessary good behavior from capitalists,” he says. The answer, he adds, is strong regulations: “I’m sorry, libertarians, it is the only way.”…
    The election of Donald Trump was, he hopes, the “final flowering of corporatism”…
    Especially galling is Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, a move that he says makes the U.S. a “rogue state.”…

    While giving away $1 billion, Grantham’s planning to make even more money, and he’s hoping climate change offers the opportunity…
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-17/jeremy-grantham-s-1-billion-plan-to-fight-climate-change

    yes indeed, the Marxists are the allies of the CAGW elite.

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    pat

    Davos climate obsessions contain clues for policymaking
    by Gillian Tett
    Financial Times – 18 Jan 2019
    The environment has replaced the economy and finance on the global elite’s worry list…
    A decade ago, what worried Davosians was the economy and the financial system.”…

    17 Jan: DeSmogUK: Climate Change High on Agenda at Davos Summit Despite Privileged Access For Fossil Fuel Industry
    By Chloe Farand
    As the world’s rich and powerful gather in Davos for the World Economic Forum (WEF), the threats to the global economy caused by environmental disasters and climate change are set to be high on the agenda.

    Attended by David Attenborough, 15-year-old school strike activist Greta Thunberg and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, this year’s WEF conference will hear from influential voices which have repeatedly warned that time for world leaders to address climate change is running out.

    But the fossil fuel industry continues to be a guest of honour at the meeting, with some of the world’s largest oil, gas and mining companies having a say in shaping the forum’s agenda and sitting on the conference’s front bench as “strategic partners”…

    For the third year in a row, environmental risks dominated the influential World Economic Forum (WEF) Global Risks report…
    Commenting on the findings, Greenpeace Executive Director Jennifer Morgan, also a speaker at this year’s WEF conference, warned that “climate emergency must dominate” the gathering.
    “The Davos ‘elite’ are still pretending we have time to fix the climate crisis. We don’t. We have already entered into a new phase of climate change, one in which the impacts are coming faster, with greater intensity, and where we must act immediately,” she added.
    Morgan urged attendees to consider technology and the dawn of the “Fourth Industrial Revolution” — one of the summit’s central themes — as a way to “totally reimagine the way we approach solutions to the climate crisis” only if “this revolution is in service of solving climate change”…

    In the age of rising populism and the rejection of the scientific consensus on climate change by Donald Trump and Jair Bolsonaro, the conference also includes a panel discussion on ways to bridge the increasing divide between scientific evidence and public opinion.
    While neither Donald Trump, Emmanuel Macron, nor Theresa May (who has more pressing threats to solve at home) are expected to attend Davos this year, Bolsonaro, who was sworn in as Brazil’s President earlier this month, will be one of the star attractions…

    Despite concerns about the risks posed by climate change, the summit is known for its polluting extravagance. Last year, 982 private jets set off to the Davos summit — a nine percent increase from 2017, according to global aviation service company Air Partner…

    But not everyone will be travelling to Davos in a private jet. Teenage climate activist Greta Thunberg said she would make the journey to and from her home in Sweden on the ***train…
    https://www.desmog.co.uk/2019/01/17/climate-change-high-agenda-davos-summit-despite-privileged-access-fossil-fuel-industry

    reminder, Greta needs to check out if the trains are running:

    15 Jan: Daily Mail: Europe’s snow hell completely cuts off towns – including Davos a week before economic forum – with avalanche warnings raised to maximum and tourists trapped at luxury resorts
    By Miranda Aldersley For Mailonline and AFP
    Davos in eastern Switzerland, the site of the World Economic Forum’s main annual meeting next week, was badly affected, ***as train services to the ski town ground to a halt, national rail service SBB said…
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6589387/Avalanche-slams-German-hotel-100-guests-staying.html

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    Anton

    Liquid nitrogen might be cheap but the cost of running a fridge at -196 degrees is a lot more than at -20 degrees. The story is still scaremongering drivel, of course.

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    pat

    lengthy, pure madness:

    17 Jan: Vox: Doctors are frightened by climate change. Their industry is a big part of the problem.
    Health care creates a tenth of US greenhouse gas emissions.
    By Julia Belluz and Umair Irfan
    Wildfire deaths. Smoky air. Floods. Droughts. There’s no escaping the reality that global warming is rapidly exacerbating threats to human health and communities in the United States and around the world. As the top scientists have told us over and over, we need to immediately lower our greenhouse gas emissions to avoid climate change’s most catastrophic effects. Governments and businesses are particularly on the hook, but so are citizens — we are all in this together.

    That includes you, doctors…
    In a New England Journal of Medicine (LINK) commentary published Wednesday, a pair of Boston doctors make the case that it’s high time medical professionals engage more directly in the fight to limit climate change. Lead author Caren Solomon, a physician at Brigham and Women’s Hospital, tells Vox she was compelled to write the piece as the urgency of the climate crisis has become clearer and clearer…READ ON
    https://www.vox.com/2019/1/17/18184358/healthcare-doctors-climate-change-divesting

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    Bill In Oz

    Jo, when I saw the ABC story about this the other day, I had a huge sigh at the alarming lack of scientific rigor and low standards in OUR ABC.

    It’s definitely not my ABC….

    I can only say I am glad that I do not subscribe to the ABC Science news. It’s bad enough finding this crap by accident. I do not want to be email bombed by it every week.

    BTW : The ABC Science on line has propagated a another booby about the horribly shrinking, melting Antarctic…Big SIGH !

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    • #
      Geoffrey Williams

      You’re so right Bill; it’s not you’re ABC and it’s not my ABC.
      I’m sure that there must be many out out there who feel the same.
      Sell the thing off and save us all a lot of money.
      We can choose our own radio stations.
      GeoffW

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        Bill In Oz

        No point in trying to sell it off Geoff. There are no buyers. And there is no popular support for that idea anyway.

        Best to make it OUR ABC again after all that’s what it’s supposed to be.

        The solution is to revive the ABC : to remake it so it is again the Australian National pubicly owned media corporation.

        Some suggestions towards this:
        1 Decentralise all programmimg back to the states again with state based board of management.( IE Break apart completely the Ultimo & South Bank dominance)

        2 : Split Radio National into two separate networks : One labelled for clarity ” Radio Greenist/Progressive” and the other “Radio national for the not indoctrinated”

        3 : Fund ABC Classic FM so it can do a decent job again. ( God there was a time when I listened Classic FM far more than any other ABC station.But not recently.

        4: Fund the expansion of the Regional network again. It too has been defunded and shut down in recent years.

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          Annie

          Many years ago I used to love listening to ABC Classic FM; even while we were living back in England. I could get Music for the God Who Sings; a favourite until it went to a different time. I think, though, that the thin end of the wedge of change started with those morning interviews by Margaret Wotsername. I also used to enjoy 3MBS. I once sat in on the early morning Sunday programme with Peter Wakeley (that was in Cotham Rd Kew days). In England I was a great fan of Radio3. They used to have great presenters and great music…stopped bothering some years ago. I never listen to any radio station now and no tv, except that I did start watching SkyNews on Win. I’m waiting for the return of Outsiders.
          In the meantime, I enjoy my breakfast and then coffee reading this blog, WUWT, UK DT, and a couple of others.

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          • #
            Bill In Oz

            Annie I like Margaret Throsby at 10.00 am on weekdays.
            She had one rule which I thought was great : no politics. It was great to listen to folks talking about their lives and their love of music. I remember listening once to Aarvo Paart back in the 1990′s and being introduced to his lovely music via Margaret Throsby’s program.

            But later it was moved to Radio National and changed in character..

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        • #
          Geoffrey Williams

          Great comments Bill I’d support your ideas any time . . .
          GeoffW

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  • #
    Rud Istvan

    This is a recycled scare. An esrlier version minus the liquid nitrogen made the rounds in late 2012. Illustrated essay Last Cup of Coffee in ebook Blowing Smoke debunked it in 2014.

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  • #
    Dennis

    That long?

    “A kitchen thermometer at Cobar’s Empire Hotel had repeatedly reached 50C, bar attendant Britney-Lee Fazulla told AAP.
    “It’s very difficult but we push through,” she said.
    The 19-year-old, who has lived in Cobar all her life, said it was the worst heatwave she’s experienced.”

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    Mary E

    The northern polar express made its rounds of the eastern side of the world and is working its way into the US and Canada, with below normal temperatures arriving this weekend. Plus, a blizzard. Or maybe just a flurry. No one was 100% certain last I listened. Lows to go to single digits F (-14 to -16 for you C folks) for several nights, maybe not more than low teens for highs (-9 to -12C) before climbing back into the usual 20s and 30s (-6 to -1C.) Of course, parts of the mid-west will be much colder, parts of the east a bit warmer, especially along the coast and the Great Lakes, which were still fairly warm but cooling fast. If the Great Lakes freeze the temperatures will drop further, but lake effect snow, a bane to many in NE Ohio, Erie-shore Pennsylvania and Ontario-shore New York, will be less of a bother.

    Large bodies of water like the Great Lakes tend to disrupt the weather, holding warmth well into the winter and cold well into the summer, creating their own micro-climates and messing with inland averages. Homogenizing temperatures in areas like that with surrounding areas is silly; known micro-climates should be monitored separately for changes, trends, not used to heat up or cool down areas outside the micro-climate. Likewise cities – urban heat effect is a known issue, so track the city temperature trends separately, don’t blend them in with surrounding suburbia and farmland. I am certain that if this was done, most all of the increase being displayed in the homogenized trends would remain in the urban micro-climates and not show at all in the outlying areas.

    And if I am right, then the cities can take measures to reduce the temperatures by various means, with those who have not contributed to the increase let off the hook.

    In the meantime, I’m going to make a cup of coffee and enjoy the winter’s day unfolding outside my window. Thankfully the coffee bushes are being grown in a much warmer climate than I get here, or I’d be worried.

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    • #
      Slithers

      Our Bureau Of Meteorology just break the laws when ever it suits them.

      Boyles Law being a case in point as they record the barometric pressure of two weather gauges just 10 km apart, but separated by 250m(879′)height as being exactly the same.

      How do they do this?

      Well they removed the weather gauge from up the hill some time ago. They still report its data which is copied from the data from the CBD weather gauge which conveniently measures about 2 degrees higher than the surrounding 300SQKM, which also has its measurements copied from that same CBD weather station!

      Our taxes at work seemingly un-accountable to any one!

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      • #
        Slithers

        I have been asked to issue an UPDATE, well retraction was the words used, lol.

        Its rather a sad story actually.

        The roll-over to the electronic weather stations was proceeding slowly. Enterprising, but ne’er-do-wells were checking the published locations of these electronic weather systems and removing the batteries!

        Many, but not most, weather gauges became Rain-fall only systems and the data I was looking at did not distinguish the real weather stations from the rainfall only stations. I now know where the real weather stations in my local area are!

        Just TWO in an area some 100km North/South and 30km East/West. Roughly an Ocean to Dividing Range Patch.

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        theRealUniverse

        Sounds like a ‘convenient adjustment’ of the barometric equation to me! higher alt = more pressure and higher temp (inversions omitted). hmm…

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    Geoffrey Williams

    Why oh why do so many people put up with this rubbish from the BBC.
    I can only assume that many if not most of them believe what they hear.
    My conclusion ; you have to be an imbecile to listen to the ABC!
    Regards GeoffW

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    Geoffrey Williams

    Quick fix to above, I meant ‘rubbish from the ABC’
    In fact though, it’s the same there also.
    GeoffW

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    RAH

    I don’t think I could do my job without coffee. At home we buy whole beans and grind our own right before we brew. I take 2 Stanley Thermoses with me on the road both filled with coffee from home and then refill on the road as needed. But since my beer still tastes fine when they told me it wouldn’t I’m no worried about my coffee either.

    This morning at 00:00 I woke up at a truck stop in Comber, ON about 20 miles from the Ambassador bridge I would cross to get back into the US. I had stopped there to take my break for two reasons:
    #1 they have a Tim Hortons there and I love their coffee so I always refill a thermos there.

    #2 The border is screwed up right now due to the shutdown and times to get through are 2 to 4X longer than average. By stopping in the afternoon at that truck stop I ensured that after my break I would go over the bridge very early in the morning instead of the high traffic hours of the afternoon. So at 00:30 I woke to my alarm in the sleeper. Drank a cup of coffee from the thermos. Got cleaned up and went in and got my customs clearance document that had been faxed to the truck stop and then walked over to the Tim Hortons and got my thermos filled. By 02:30 I was at the bridge. It took an hour to get to the customs booth when usually that early in the morning it’s a 15 minute wait or less. When I pulled up to the booth the officer, who was an older black guy, looked a bit frazzled. After asking the typical questions, and getting satisfactory answers, he handed my passport card back to me. I told him “Thanks man for hanging in there”. He gave a little smile and said “Thanks” and I went on my way. Those guys are doing a job that has to be done and not getting paid and that deserves an expression of appreciation no matter if a few times in the past they have made me feel like a bit like a potential criminal or terrorist as I try to get back into my own country.

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    Neville

    Another informed comment from Prof Ian Plimer in the the OZ 17th Jan.

    https://www.thegwpf.com/ian-plimer-97-of-scientists-agree-on-nothing/
    “IAN PLIMER: 97% OF SCIENTISTS AGREE ON NOTHING”

    Date: 17/01/19
    Ian Plimer, The Australian

    It is often claimed that 97 per cent of scientists conclude that humans are causing global warming. Is that really true? No. It is a zombie statistic.

    “In the scientific circles I mix in, there is an overwhelming scepticism about human-induced climate change. Many of my colleagues claim that the mantra of human-induced global warming is the biggest scientific fraud of all time and future generations will pay dearly.

    If 97 per cent of scientists agree that there is human-induced climate change, you’d think they would be busting a gut to vanquish climate sceptics in public debates. Instead, many scientists and activists are expressing confected outrage at the possibility of public debates because the science is settled. After all, 97 per cent of scientists agree that human emissions drive global warming and there is no need for further discussion.

    In my 50-year scientific career, I have never seen a hypothesis where 97 per cent of scientists agree. At any scientific conference there are collections of argumentative sods who don’t agree about anything, argue about data, how data was collected and the conclusions derived from data. Scepticism underpins all science, science is underpinned by repeatable validated evidence and scientific conclusions are not based on a show of hands, consensus, politics or feelings. Scientists, just like lawyers, bankers, unionists, politicians and those in all other fields, can make no claim to being honest or honourable, and various warring cliques of scientists have their leaders, followers, outsiders and enemies. Scientists differ from many in the community because they are allegedly trained to be independent. Unless, of course, whacking big research grants for climate “science” are waved in front of them.

    The 97 per cent figure derives from a survey sent to 10,257 people with a self-interest in human-induced global warming who published “science” supported by taxpayer-funded research grants. Replies from 3146 respondents were whittled down to 77 self-appointed climate “scientists” of whom 75 were judged to agree that human-induced warming was taking place. The 97 per cent figure derives from a tribe with only 75 members. What were the criteria for rejecting 3069 respondents? There was no mention that 75 out of 3146 is 2.38 per cent. We did not hear that 2.38 per cent of climate scientists with a self-interest agreed that humans have played a significant role in changing climate and that they are recipients of some of the billions spent annually on climate research.

    Another recent paper on the scientific consensus of human-induced climate change was a howler. Such papers can be published only in the sociology or environmental literature.

    The paper claimed that published scientific papers showed there was a 97.1 per cent consensus that man had caused at least half of the 0.7C global warming since 1950. How was this 97.1 per cent figure determined? By “inspection” of 11,944 published papers. Inspection is not rigorous scholarship. There was no critical reading and understanding derived from reading 11,944 papers. This was not possible as the study started in March 2012 and was published in mid-2013, hence only a cursory inspection was possible. What was inspected? By whom?

    The methodology section of the publication gives the game away. “This letter was conceived as a ‘citizen science’ project by volunteers contributing to the Skeptical Science website (www.skepticalscience.com). In March 2012, we searched the Institute for Scientific Information Web of Science for papers published from 1991-2011 using topic searches for ‘global warming’ or ‘global climate change’.”

    This translates as: This study was a biased compilation of opinions from non-scientific, politically motivated volunteer activists who used a search engine for key words in 11,944 scientific papers, were unable to understand the scientific context of the use of “global warming” and “global climate change”, who rebadged themselves as “citizen scientists” to hide their activism and ignorance, who did not read the complete papers and were unable to evaluate critically the diversity of science published therein.

    The conclusions were predictable because the methodology was not dispassionate and involved decisions by those who were not independent.

    As part of a scathing critical analysis of this paper by real scientists, the original 11,944 papers were read and the readers came to a diametrically opposite conclusion. Of the 11,944 papers, only 41 explicitly stated that humans caused most of the warming since 1950 (0.3 per cent). Of the 11,944 climate “science” papers, 99.7 per cent did not say that carbon dioxide caused most of the global warming since 1950. It was less than 1 per cent and not one paper endorsed a man-made global warming catastrophe.

    Political policy and environmental activism rely on this fraudulent 97 per cent consensus paid for by the taxpayer to rob the taxpayer further with subsidies for bird-and-bat-chomping wind turbines, polluting solar panels and handouts to those with sticky fingers in the international climate industry. It’s this alleged 97 per cent consensus that has changed our electricity from cheap and reliable to expensive and unreliable.

    Activists with no skin in the game are setting the scene for economic suicide. Time for yellow shirts to shirt-front politicians about their uncritical acceptance of a fraud that has already cost the community hundreds of billions of dollars”.

    Emeritus professor Ian Plimer’s latest book, The Climate Change Delusion and the Great Electricity Ripoff, is published by Connor Court. He is a member of the GWPF’s Academic Advisory Council
    The Australian, 17 January 2019

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    Neville

    I posted a very frank column from Ian Plimer and I’m now in moderation. I think his use of the F word may be the cause.

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    Another Ian

    I guess the truth of this can be assessed by a sudden rise in coffee shops for sale?

    Like sea level rise with seaside mansions for sale

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      Annie

      New coffee shops keep popping up everywhere…they must be getting the coffee from somewhere, not to mention the patrons who seem to have more money to fling around than we have!

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      • #
        RAH

        Yea, but from what I’ve seen at least half of the product they sell isn’t coffee and much of the coffee they do sell just serves as a base for some kind of concoction. Don’t get me wrong, I like a good Cappuccino as much as the next guy, but these days the stuff people orders boggles the mind.

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        • #
          Annie

          Some of the stuff is really weak and wishy washy…not much coffee in it and too much milk. It reminds me of the sort of gin and tonic they serve on aircraft…far too much ice, half a glassful! It sure economises on the g and t doesn’t it? My OH found the same when he visited the US of A; nearly all ice and he had some very funny looks when he asked for far less of it!

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    yarpos

    This is serious business. In my area the economy is propped up by old blokes who do up cars, and sit in cafes drinking coffee while talking BS.

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    Neville

    Dr Roy Spencer and Dr Judith Curry have been looking at the very latest studies dealing with so called ocean warming and OHC. Some of this data is very doubtful and Willis explored this a week ago as well. Same conclusion.

    Here’s Dr Spencer link.

    http://www.drroyspencer.com/2019/01/ocean-warming-in-climate-models-varies-far-more-than-recent-study-suggests/ Here’s Dr Curry’s link. Certainly OHC surprises.

    https://judithcurry.com/2019/01/14/ocean-heat-content-surprises/

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      theRealUniverse

      You cant warm huge volumes of water at great depth from a wee bit of hot air above it. Heat transfer says the temp above the oceans is much lower than that above dry land hence continents like Australia are MUCH hotter at same latitude than the same part of the ocean. Totally due to atmospheric adiabatic heat transfer.
      Spencer and Curry are lukeists (luke warmers) sorry.

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        Bill In Oz

        Spenser & Curry are open to changing their views if new reliable evidence is presented…

        That’s is a proper scientific way of operating

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    Neville

    The GWPF’s prize for the tallest tale about climate for 2018 has been won.
    Amazing delusional nonsense about louder whale songs, polar bears and even poor guys and the shrinkage of a very important part of their anatomy etc. Incredible imagination from the CAGW brigade and you couldn’t imagine what these donkeys will think of next.

    https://www.thegwpf.com/we-have-a-winner-climates-tallest-tale/

    Share on FacebookTweet about this on Twitter
    WE HAVE A WINNER: CLIMATE’S TALLEST TALE 2018
    Date: 18/01/19 GWPF
    We asked you to nominate the wackiest climate stories of the year. You didn’t let us down.

    Before Christmas, we asked GWPF readers to send us nominations for our search to find the tallest climate tale of 2018. It’s fair to say that there was a lot of competition, with the catastrophe mongers across the media clearly working hard to ensure that they were in the running for this much sought-after accolade.

    We particularly enjoyed L. Robertson’s ‘Climate change, weather and road deaths’, a paper in the journal Injury Prevention, which declared that rising concentrations of greenhouse gases was going to cause a rising death toll on the roads unless governments put in ‘major mitigating countermeasures’.

    We also liked the story from the Daily Mail, which alleged that a small rise in global temperatures would make people more likely to wet the bed and might also trigger plagues of ticks, snakes and…erm…voles.

    An honourable mention for creative headline writing goes to the subs at BehaviouralEcology.net, who had the brass neck to write a story about polar bear research and then stick a headline on the top that suggested that global warming was going to make men’s willies shrink. Charles Dickens they are not.

    However, the unanimous decision of the judges was that the tallest climate tale of the year was Mark Prigg’s bizarre suggestion, for Mail Online, that ‘Climate change is causing blue whales to sing louder as they struggle to be heard over breaking sea ice”. The judges felt this deserved particular kudos because it was not only daft, but could also be shown to be daft at the time of writing. More circumspect journos like to conjure up catastrophes far into the future. Tall-tale telling of this quality is therefore not something you come across every day.

    So many thanks to Mark for writing so entertainingly, and thanks also to reader Andrew K, down under, for sending us the nomination. Andrew has won himself a bottle of House of Lords whisky, and copies of a couple of GWPF books. Enjoy!

    120

    • #
      Another Ian

      Saw this recently

      A man of religion came upon a group of boys and asked what they were up to.

      Reluctantly it came out that they were having a contest with the teller of the biggest lie to win the puppy.

      He commented “At your age I would never have thought of telling a lie”

      And one of the boys said “I guess he wins the puppy”

      50

  • #
    theRealUniverse

    “Most coffee species at risk of extinction due to climate change, scientists warn” One word..GARBAGE!

    20

  • #
    el gordo

    O/T

    ‘Power baron Trevor St Baker plans to develop high-efficiency, low-emissions coal plants in Victoria and NSW.’ Oz

    30

    • #
      robert rosicka

      Interesting news elgordo but I’m not sure our glorious leader would welcome it .

      11

      • #
        el gordo

        I think he will give the nod, the election will be won or lost in the regions. We want fresh water from Lake Argyle to the Darling River and coal fired power stations to run the bullet trains and satellite cities.

        30

    • #

      In fact, Australia is the only country which wastes Australian coal by failing to modernise generation while continuing to rely utterly on coal power. China, Japan, India and S Korea, who consume much more Australian coal than we do and vastly more coal than they import from us, feel differently.

      With us, wasting coal is a green thing. I’m not sure why. The Guardian-perusing classes seem to understand.

      40

  • #
    STJOHNOFGRAFTON

    In the coffee roasting process natural sugars in the beans are pyrolysed into complex flavours and carbon dioxide. The roasted beans slowly de-gas
    the carbon dioxide. This is why your bag of beans has a one way valve. To experience the smell sensation of real coffee, squeeze the bag close to your nose and don’t worry about the carbon dioxide.

    50

  • #
    el gordo

    Viv Forbes is adamant that we should pull out of Paris.

    http://saltbushclub.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ten-reasons.pdf

    30

  • #
    Peter Fitzroy

    Coffee production increased by more than 100 percent from 18.8 million bags per year under the regulated market (1963-1989) to 39.3 million bags per year under the free market (1990-2013). But yield per hectare has dropped. That C02 seems to be a two edged sword.

    57

    • #
      robert rosicka

      And what was the production for 2017 and 2018 Fitz ?

      23

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Ummmmmm ?

      Wild speculative correlation AGAIN Fitz ?

      Maybe coffee crop growing has expanded into regions less suitable for coffee production. Eg poorer soil or less reliable rainfall.

      Maybe a less intensive method of production is being used with less fertilisers and pesticides in response to the booming market for Fairtrade and Organic certified coffee.

      maybe lots of possible stuff going on …

      42

      • #
        Peter Fitzroy

        But Bill, the story was positive that C02 was behind the increase in coffee, and has a nice graph and everything., I’m just pointing out that yield is dropping, despite the alleged help from C02.

        46

        • #
          Bill In Oz

          Blatant misrepresentation of the basic facts Fitz.
          1; The chart at the head of this post shows coffee production increasing over the past 30 dd years..CO2 is not graphed on the chart…

          But as it happens CO has increased an d CO2 is good for plants by making it easier to them to get CO2 which is for plants an essential nutrient.

          2: The link you provided to coffee news states that coffee production has increased in some regions and decreased in others Nowhere does it state that the decreases were due to CO2 increasing….

          now that’s Harebrained Fitz !

          32

          • #
            Peter Fitzroy

            here is the heading just above that nice graph
            Let’s check. Here’s what excess fossil fuel emissions have done to coffee production
            Since the emissions are all about C02 (we’ll ignore the others like NOx, SOx, CO, PM, organic gases and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons) for now.

            for the yield (Phys.org)
            Lead author Alessandro Craparo, a PhD candidate from Wits University and his fellow researchers warn that without substantial climate change adaptation strategies, the average coffee production in Tanzania (where the study was conducted) will drop to 145 kg per hectare by 2060.

            Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2015-04-coffee-production-decline.html#jCp

            Now where is this “Blatant misrepresentation”

            55

            • #
              robert rosicka

              Again give us the facts for the last few years , you have them but it doesn’t help your cause now does it ? You have nothing futz , nothing but drivel and ideology and one thing we will never see from you is evidence that’s relevant, factual and stands up to scrutiny.

              54

              • #
                Peter Fitzroy

                Dig them up yourself robert, I’m not going to spoon feed you, nor am I taking orders from you. You Have the internet, you have a search engine. Besides as I was saying to Bill – the statement is about C02 increasing production, which is what I am protesting.

                66

              • #
                robert rosicka

                Your protesting Co2 raising coffee production ? Is your foil hat too tight ?

                30

              • #
                el gordo

                Robert the point is that CO2 is good for coffee growth but warmer night time temperatures are going to make it harder to grow.

                My first thought would be to find out whether temperatures are increasing in Tanzania at night? If affirmative then I would look for a natural variable.

                20

              • #
                robert rosicka

                Elgordo I think if I bothered to check Tanzania I’d find a cause or causes other than temp .

                10

              • #
                robert rosicka

                Trying to find info on Tanzania is proving difficult but regular droughts a big population and the need for food crops would be a factor .
                I found a chart of temps and rainfall from early 1900 to early 2000 and it looked like the higher the temp the better the rain .

                10

              • #
                PeterFitzroy

                El Gordo, that study, which you quoted upstream, is very interesting, especially where they note that temp increase was not part of the study. They also note that higher temp would depress growth in coffee. So the empirical work is good, but would it play out in the world

                45

              • #
                AndyG55

                But we know the temperature increase is NOT caused by the atmospheric CO2.

                There is absolutely no evidence that is the case.

                Plenty of evidence that CO2 enhanced growth.

                Coffee bean production is increasing….. end of story.

                02

            • #
              robert rosicka

              We’ve established that coffee production is growing not shrinking and as for Tanzania might I suggest that figures for the Tanami desert are also down as is the Antarctica so what’s your point ?

              31

              • #
                el gordo

                ‘Since 1966, however, coffee production has dropped by 46 percent in Tanzania – a trend research predicts is likely to continue. Over that period, Tanzania’s night-time average temperature has risen by 1.4 degrees Celsius.

                ‘According to the study, published in the journal Agricultural and Forests Meteorology, for each 1-degree Celsius rise in mean minimum (night-time) temperature, farmers in Tanzania are likely to see a loss of approximately 137 kilograms of coffee per hectare. That is almost half the average small producer’s production, which is currently 225 kilograms per hectare.’

                Reuter
                ———-

                So what is the natural variable increasing night time temperatures?

                20

              • #
                Bill In Oz

                El Gordo,
                1: let’s look at that re[ported night time temperature increase - one degree since 1960..That's 58 years..But who did the measuring of the temperatures ? In 1960, 1961, 1962 etc etc up to 2015 when this study wa spublished..

                2: Firz is citing that production dropped in Tanzania. But did a similar drop in production happen in other tropical highland coffe growing countries ? Countries liek Costa Rica, Peru, Columbia, Brazil, Vietnam, PNG, Timur L'Este,Uganda Ethiopia etc..

                I am not aware of any significant drop in coffee production. In fact many of these countries have increased their production significantly.

                There are some other countries which have seen declines in coffee crops.But they are all in Africa which is curious indeed.
                Maybe the answer lies in factors within Tanzania such as those mentioned in Wikipedia's entry on the country.
                Wikipedia says about Tanzania "Tanzania has made little progress towards reducing extreme hunger and malnutrition.[106][107] The 2010 Global Hunger Index ranks the situation as “alarming”.[106] Children in rural areas suffer substantially higher rates of malnutrition and chronic hunger, although urban-rural disparities have narrowed as regards both stunting and underweight.[106] Low rural sector productivity arises mainly from inadequate infrastructure investment; limited access to farm inputs, extension services and credit; limited technology as well as trade and marketing support; and heavy dependence on rain-fed agriculture and natural resources.[106]

                Approximately 68 percent of Tanzania’s 44.9 million citizens live below the poverty line of $1.25 a day and 16 percent of children under 5 are malnourished.[107] The most prominent challenges Tanzania faces in poverty reduction are unsustainable harvesting of its natural resources, unchecked cultivation,… and water- source encroachment.”

                That leads me to wonder what were the conditions in Tanzania that lead to a drop in production…

                60

              • #
                PeterFitzroy

                I’m quoting world stats

                47

              • #
                el gordo

                The drop in Tanzanian production might be down to Wilt Disease which showed up in 1997 and is still impacting the Robusta.

                30

              • #
                Kinky Keith

                Bill @ 42.2.1.1.2,

                Good summary,

                A quick reading around suggests that any cuts in production in Tanzania are the usual:

                Politics.

                Political blight comes across as a central factor in reduced production, but there is hope.

                There are some sprays currently under test that may get rid of Political Wilt but tests so far, are inconclusive.

                The possible brand names being suggested are Brexit and Trumpit for the British and U.S. versions.

                Australian trials of MalExit444 have been discontinued and Australian coffee production has almost ground to a halt.

                KK

                41

            • #
              peter

              Fitzy,

              Plants and animals need ‘fixed’ nitrogen (and sulphur)to absorb those essential protein nutrients. NOx and SOx would help them absorb both N and S. CO? Are there motor cars continuously driving around plantations? Plants would ignore CO without any ill effect. PAH? Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons would be considered food or organic fertiliser by plants. They would thrive on them. PM? Oh, you mean dust. You didn’t mention that all of those so-called pollutants would only be at very slightly increased levels.

              01

            • #
              AndyG55

              “without substantial climate change adaptation strategies,”

              Yes, the coming cooling period cause a few problems, that is for sure.

              Still with an ever increasing atmospheric CO2 supply, thanks to China, India, Asia, Africa etc, there is still hope.

              02

    • #
      Dave

      60 kilo bags Peter
      Brazil alone produced over 55 million 60 kilo bags of coffee in 2017!

      What bag sizes are you using???

      60

      • #
        Dave

        Plus Peter the world
        Produced 145 Million 60 kilo bags in 2014?

        Have you got a link to these figures you quoted please?

        50

        • #
          • #
            Dave

            OK!
            Thanks for that!
            You did read the article Peter?

            You only quoted Robusta!

            You forgot to add Arabica!

            They are both coffee species Peter!

            Robusta Coffee was nearly 58 Million bags?
            Big difference there Peter!

            Where is the link to the drop in yield per hectare Peter?

            101

            • #
              • #
                Dave

                WOW
                Study only researches Arabica not Robusta!

                An 8 year old study based on models only!

                You do know the yield rate of both Robusta and Arabica today Peter? I’m only talking Tanzania.
                Did you know they are now up to 60,000 tonnes in 2018?
                That’s way above the decline predicted by Alessandro Craparo, a PhD candidate from Wits University you cited!

                Vietnam next in a few minutes Peter!

                61

              • #
                Dave

                OK!

                Vietnam

                Did you know your link contains a graph that VIETNAM leads the world in yield per hectare over the last 25 years!
                Go down to the 4th graph labelled “Coffee Yields Selected Major Producers”

                Your links are against everything you claim Peter!

                “Vietnamese coffee producers have the highest yields in the world.”

                No one is even close Peter!

                81

              • #
                Kinky Keith

                To Andy and Dave,

                It’s important to confront the posts that are just there to disrupt and offer no debate based on reason.

                Such posts which become excessive have no right to continue: they have a right to free speech but not to free abuse.

                Fair enough, while this blog is unfortunately about politics and money driving the global warming scam, it is also about science.
                Sometimes comments may appear to be scientific when in fact they are deliberate rubbish.
                When discovered such comments should be removed.
                Deliberately misleading under the guise of “free speech” is not something that the blog should accept.

                KK

                10

          • #
            Dave

            Peter,
            The total coffee production in 2013 was 107.8 MILLION bags?

            Where are you getting these figures from?
            Still waiting for Drop in Yield per hectare link as well!

            60

            • #
              Kinky Keith

              Dave, you’re doing a good job there, exposing all the landfill as being not what it’s purported to be and frequently the reverse.

              Be careful, you may be chastised.

              To the uninitiated, infill can appear to be very authoritative, but after you read a few they are mostly, 97%, fact free and designed to impact on the real discussion and learning.

              KK

              31

        • #
          robert rosicka

          2013 hey Fitz ? Now why would you quote 2013 when your masters say now and into the future ?
          Lucky Andy is not here chump .

          32

          • #
            Peter Fitzroy

            Yep, he is way better at name calling than you are.

            55

            • #
              robert rosicka

              Poor putz , it’s nice your missing him though , and it’s about time you coughed up some evidence that Co2 causes temps to rise .

              43

              • #
                PeterFitzroy

                I do not take direction form you

                48

              • #
                el gordo

                Andy was pulled up by the moderator for acting like a no all prat who picks on innocent bloggers. Get a life.

                33

              • #
                Kinky Keith

                It’s obvious from the aimlessness of the comments that he gets neither direction or guidance from anywhere.

                Fill the gaps, blog clogging.

                KK

                13

              • #
                el gordo

                Peter accepts the paradigm, we have to prove him wrong through debate.

                41

              • #
                Kinky Keith

                Hi El Gordo @ 41.3.1.2.2

                Were you using sarcasm in that comment.

                One of Andy’s comments:
                http://joannenova.com.au/2019/01/another-expert-climate-professor-retires-and-becomes-outspoken-skeptic/#comment-2094398

                By know means the only comment he has made, but it was carefully put together. I think that says something about Andy’s comments and respect for the blog.

                On the other side of the coin, there are an equal number of comments to which Andy has responded which display an intent to contradict others with posts that are fact free: all they do is fill space and clog the blog.

                Deliberately misrepresenting facts and clogging the blog at the level seen needs to be addressed.

                KK

                41

              • #
                Kinky Keith

                Hi El Gordo @ 41.3.1.2.4,

                That’s the point.

                I don’t see any debate. Just landfill.

                21

              • #
                el gordo

                I appreciate Andy’s graphs, but there is far too little respect for alternative opinion around here.

                If we can’t argue our case in a rational way then it reflects badly on all of us. Peter is merely putting forward the accepted paradigm, don’t shoot the messenger.

                He may never see the light of day, but that doesn’t matter because we are here to gain an education on every aspect of the debate, in the hope that green/left journalists (just wandering by) will be impressed and swayed.

                10

              • #
                Kinky Keith

                Hi El Gordo @ 42.3.1.2.7

                I didn’t notice that Andy had put up graphs, all I saw was a comprehensive and apparently authoritative comment about the heat flow mechanism from ground to space.

                One of his comments;

                “Convection/conduction/advection/bulk transfer RULE in the lower atmosphere.

                Radiative heat transfer is insignificant in that it does not change the thermal gradient.”

                Will Janoschka has previously stated that the only significant input to the Earth’s energy balance was high up where it gave up IR to space.

                It is blatantly obvious that CO2 cannot “create” energy out of nothing nor “trap heat” as in the “Paradigm” you speak of.

                There is no science or engineering that supports the concept of CO2 Induced Man Made Global Warming.

                The one and only issue is to ask how did this embarrassing state of affairs bypass all checks and balances in our Democratic systems?

                This is essentially a political issue that’s way out of control and causing immense damage to society.

                KK

                22

              • #
                AndyG55

                I can’t help it if pftuz is incapable of producing any evidence of CO2 warming.

                Why should one respect “opinion” that is based on ignorance and a total unwillingness to overcome that ignorance.?

                You say you are here to learn, El G, but you seem to have great difficulty doing so.

                12

              • #
                AndyG55

                And do you really think pfutz is an innocent blogger. !!!!

                Surely you are not that naïve, El G.

                He is not here to learn.. he is here to disrupt.

                12

  • #
    pat

    ***Beeb on the wild coffee rubbish – but best to listen to the entire program – despite it being virtually incomprehensible to anyone but a CAGW propagandist.
    however, fyi, the coffee stuff begins at 19min09sec:

    AUDIO: 26min28sec: 18 Jan: BBC Science in Action: Is 2018 the Warmest Year on Record?
    by Roland Pease
    Is 2018 the warmest year on record? We look at the evidence behind that claim. What part do the global oceans play in regulating the planets temperatures and what are the prospects for future extreme weather.
    We look at how climate change is ocean systems affecting storms and ocean waves, and the implications this could have for those of us living in coastal regions.

    ***And wild coffee species are facing extinction. This could affect commercial production of the coffee we drink. However rediscovering the coffee of the past might offer a solution.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3cswmqm

    20

  • #
    robert rosicka

    Seems this one managed to slip through the ABC sensor, here’s how we used to keep cool before air conditioning when temps were in the 50′s !

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-19/here-are-some-other-ways-to-stay-cool-during-a-heatwave/10729008

    Never ! Ever ! Did I think I’d see a report like this on the ABC again .

    12

  • #
    ROM

    [ROM! Hello. Is that you dropping in a blank comment? I hope so. We have missed you and would be so delighted to see you again.
    Thinking of you -- Jo and all the mods!]

    [Indeed, the moderators read as well as watching the store. Do hurry back.] AZ

    00

  • #
    RoHa

    No coffee? We’re doomed!

    31

  • #
    pat

    19 Jan: ABC: Elon Musk to cut Tesla workforce amid plans to produce cheaper cars for everyday people
    by ABC/Wires
    “We face an extremely difficult challenge: making our cars, batteries and solar products cost-competitive with fossil fuels,” he said in a letter to staff.
    “While we have made great progress, our products are still too expensive for most people.”
    He said that 7 per cent of the workforce would be cut…
    Shares tumbled by 11 per cent after the letter went public…

    The US had put into place a tax incentive for people to buy electric cars, cutting the ticket price by about $10,000.
    But President Donald Trump and other Republicans consider the credit a waste of taxpayer money and want it eliminated.
    That incentive was reduced to about $5,000 this month and it will be cut to zero by the end of the year…

    Mr Musk’s rocket company SpaceX has also seen recent job cuts.
    On January, a spokesman for the company said the workforce would be reduced by about 10 per cent…
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-19/elon-musk-says-tesla-needs-to-cut-job-make-cheaper-cars/10728930

    18 Jan: Forbes: Tesla’s Profit Warning Is Further Evidence That Elon Musk’s Math Does Not Add Up
    by Jim Collins
    Musk indicated that preliminary results show that Tesla’s third quarter 4% profit margin would not recur in the fourth quarter. The $255 million profit underlying that margin –actually 3.7% on a after-tax basis–included $189 million in revenue from selling tax credits (ZEV and non-ZEV) to other carmakers, so I never viewed 4% as a sustainable level of profitability for Tesla. Musk seemed to confirm that in his blog post today…

    As that list dwindles, there remain the die-hards who want the “EV for everyone,” the $27,500 Model 3. Since that calculation assumed a full $7,500 tax credit removed from a $35,000 base price and Tesla is no longer eligible for the full tax credit, those consumers will never be delivered what they ordered. Teslas are eligible for a $3,750 from now until June 30th, from July 1st to December 31st that credit declines to $1,875 and then on January 1st, 2019 it disappears completely. While Musk mentioned the needs to deliver “at least the mid-range Model 3 in all markets” starting, as he put it, “around May” that is still not the $35,000 Model 3. That model will have a lower range battery pack than the one being sold in today’s $44,000 configuration of the Model 3 (220 miles versus 260 for the mid-range) and, as Musk indicated in his post today, a less “premium” interior, as well.

    So, even if Tesla can deliver the base Model 3 by July, those consumers will only be eligible to receive a $1,875 federal tax credit and the true cost of the car (excluding any state/local incentives) would be $33,125, a far cry from the $27,500 starting price that Teslaphiles have worshipped…

    The question from an analyst perspective has always been “can Tesla make a profit on a $35,000 Model 3?” Musk’s morning blog post clearly implies the answer is “no,” and that puts Tesla’s very future–to say nothing of the $60 billion market capitalization the company was afforded yesterday–at risk.

    Tesla’s interest expense ran at an annualized rate of $700 million in the third quarter and Tesla faces the maturity of its 0.25% convertible notes, a $920 million tranche, on March 1st, 2019. While Tesla has already indicated it would settle half of those notes in cash even if investors chose to convert, conversion itself that would only be economical at a Tesla share price of at least $359.87. With Tesla shares indicated at $323 in premarket trading, the potential that those notes need to be fully settled in cash becomes more real.

    Assuming a 2% or 1% net profit margin on the current Zacks consensus for Tesla’s 2019 revenue of 28.7 billion, Tesla simply could not cover those $1.6 billion in fixed costs. Those costs also exclude the the ~$3 billion in capital expenditures that Tesla has budgeted for 2019. That figure includes the $500 million that is annually required under Tesla’s agreement with New York State to fund what I refer to as Tesla’s “Buffalo blunder,” Gigafactory II in upstate New York…

    Tesla’s solar and battery-storage business only merited mention in the final sentence of Musk’s final paragraph of his blog post, and clearly he sees Tesla Inc. through the lens of its former incarnation Tesla Motors. So, if Musk is thinking like an automotive executive, he has to know that 1-2% profit margins cannot cover the high fixed costs related to making cars and the other costs relating to the non-automotive business of Tesla Inc.

    I have finished several prior Forbes columns with the following statement: the numbers don’t work at Tesla. Regardless of the gyrations of Tesla shares or the plaintive wails of bullish analysts, they never have worked. Today’s blog post from Elon Musk is just more evidence of that. In my experience the process of realization of such bad math is a very long and painful one for shareholders of any company.
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimcollins/2019/01/18/teslas-profit-warning-is-further-evidence-that-elon-musks-math-does-not-add-up/#1f40b9be5d65

    40

    • #
      robert rosicka

      Who would have thought that there was no market for high end electric cars once subsidies were removed .

      52

      • #
        yarpos

        The model 3 isnt high end in any sense apart from the price tag

        41

        • #
          yarpos

          ….and sooner or later they run out of virtue signallers and posers , then reality bites as they have to deal with real consumers actually comparing their product with real products and making choices.

          As with “renewables” , reality is problematic. Once the fanboys have had their moment in the sun, once the politicians have done their “downward pressure” soundbite, once the media have nodded knowingly in agreement, then all you have left standing there are the Laws of Physics and sound Engineering design practice. Neither of which is very much affected or impressed by rainbows and unicorns.

          72

  • #
    pat

    17 Jan: Carbon Brief: State of the climate: How the world warmed in 2018
    by Zeke Hausfather
    The climate data for 2018 is now mostly in, though the ongoing shutdown of the US government has caused some datasets to be delayed.
    In this article, Carbon Brief explains why last year proved to be so remarkable across the oceans, atmosphere, cryosphere and surface temperature of the planet.
    A number of records for the Earth’s climate were set in 2018…READ ON
    https://www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-climate-how-world-warmed-2018

    full text of Plimer’s piece in The Australian:

    18 Jan: ClimateDepot: Geologist Dr. Ian Plimer: 97% Of Scientists Agree On Nothing – Debunking the 97% ‘zombie statistic’
    Political policy and environmental activism rely on this fraudulent 97 per cent consensus paid for by the taxpayer to rob the taxpayer further with subsidies for bird-and-bat-chomping wind turbines, polluting solar panels and handouts to those with sticky fingers in the international climate industry. It’s this alleged 97 per cent consensus that has changed our electricity from cheap and reliable to expensive and unreliable.

    Activists with no skin in the game are setting the scene for economic suicide. Time for yellow shirts to shirt-front politicians about their uncritical acceptance of a fraud that has already cost the community hundreds of billions of dollars.
    http://www.climatedepot.com/2019/01/18/geologist-dr-ian-plimer-97-of-scientists-agree-on-nothing-debunking-the-97-zombie-statistic/

    10

  • #
    pat

    18 Jan: Daily Caller: Germany’s Climate Crusade May Put An End To No Speed-Limit Autobahns
    by Michael Bastasch
    A German government committee proposed fuel tax hikes, electric vehicle quotas and lower speed limits to meet European Union targets for cutting carbon dioxide emissions. If targets aren’t met, Germany could face massive fines…

    France’s government planned on raising carbon taxes on fuels at the beginning of 2019, but scrapped the planned fuel tax increases after weeks of violent protests. France also cut speed limits last year to reduce traffic fatalities.
    French officials also touted lower speed limits as a way to reduce pollution and fight global warming by cutting auto emissions 30 percent. Drivers were not happy.

    Protests sparked in November over fuel taxes have since taken aim at lower speed limits. CNN reported in early January that 60 percent of France’s traffic cameras were vandalized. France is still plagued with riots over President Emmanuel Macron’s policies…
    https://dailycaller.com/2019/01/18/germany-end-no-speed-limit-autobahn/

    18 Jan: Deutsche Welle: Will Germany use autobahn speed limits to cut carbon emissions?
    A national commission has laid out a number of steps to help Germany meet EU emissions targets. Though desperately needed, they will face resistance from citizens and the country’s influential auto industry.
    Among the proposals featured in the paper were a fuel tax hike from 2023 onward, an end to tax breaks for diesel cars, electric and hybrid vehicle quotas, and a 130 kmh (80 mph) speed limit on freeways — which is the norm in other EU countries.

    Speaking of the concept of limiting how fast Germans can drive on their famously speedy autobahns
    would seem a non-starter, and that point was made by Ulrich Lange, deputy chairman of Chancellor Merkel’s CDU/CSU parliamentary group, “I don’t think the suggestion of a speed limit is expedient.”…
    The issues of speed limits and fuel tax hikes are highly unpopular in Germany…

    Commenting on the lack of progress Germany has made in changing its approach to environmentally sustainable mobility, Greenpeace transport expert Tobias Astrup decried the fact that, “We have made absolutely no headway in terms of climate protection and transport since 1990.”…
    https://www.dw.com/en/will-germany-use-autobahn-speed-limits-to-cut-carbon-emissions/a-47144296

    10

    • #
      yarpos

      If the French wanted to reduce fatalities they should have left the speed limits alone and just got the French to drive more like Germans, and less like Italians.

      30

  • #
    pat

    here we go again:

    18 Jan: WashingtonExaminer: Pentagon warns Congress that climate change is a ‘national security’ risk to military bases
    by Josh Siegel
    The Defense Department issued a report (LINK) to Congress Thursday finding that climate change is a “national security” issue that could leave military bases vulnerable to coastal flooding and wildfires fueled by drought.
    “The effects of a changing climate are a national security issue with potential impacts to Department of Defense missions, operational plans, and installations,” the 22-page report said…

    Democrats of the House Armed Services Committee criticized the DOD’s report, saying it lacks specific plans on how the military intends to respond to climate change.
    “While this climate report acknowledges that nearly all the military installations it studied are vulnerable to major climate change impacts, it fails to even minimally discuss a mitigation plan to address the vulnerabilities.” said Rep. Adam Smith, D-Wash., the committee’s chairman…
    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/energy/pentagon-warns-congress-that-climate-change-is-a-national-security-risk-to-military-bases

    18 Jan: Reuters: CORRECTED-UPDATE 1-U.S. State Dept says may ask Trump to scrap another Obama climate order
    by Timothy Gardner
    (In Jan 17 story, fixes attribution in 8th paragraph to GAO’s David Gootnick instead of anonymous GAO official)
    The U.S. State Department said in a report released by the investigative arm of Congress on Thursday it may recommend President Donald Trump revoke an Obama-era order directing federal agencies to consider climate change in international development programs.
    Such a move would deepen the Trump administration’s already broad rejection of former President Barack Obama’s policies on global warming, which Trump has repeatedly suggested is not as serious as scientists claim…

    The State Department said in the General Accountability Office, or GAO, report published Thursday that its foreign assistance and budget bureaus “will begin working with stakeholders to consider whether to recommend that the Secretary (Mike Pompeo) ask the President to rescind” the order…READ ON
    https://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL1N1ZH23T

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    Neville

    Here is the link to that Ian Plimer article from the OZ via the GWPF. I think the F word was the problem above.

    https://www.thegwpf.com/ian-plimer-97-of-scientists-agree-on-nothing/

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    Kenneth Richard

    DaMatta et al., 2018
    https://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/acs.jafc.7b04537
    “Coffee is one of the most important global crops and provides a livelihood to millions of people living in developing countries. Coffee species have been described as being highly sensitive to climate change, as largely deduced from modeling studies based on predictions of rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns. Here, we discuss the physiological responses of the coffee tree in the context of present and ongoing climate changes, including drought, heat, and light stresses, and interactions between these factors. We also summarize recent insights on the physiological and agronomic performance of coffee at elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations and highlight the key role of CO2 in mitigating the harmful effects of heat stress. Evidence is shown suggesting that warming, per se, may be less harmful to coffee suitability than previously estimated, at least under the conditions of an adequate water supply. Finally, we discuss several mitigation strategies to improve crop performance in a changing world.”
    —–
    Dubberstein et al., 2018
    https://www.intechopen.com/books/climate-resilient-agriculture-strategies-and-perspectives/mitigation-of-the-negative-impact-of-warming-on-the-coffee-crop-the-role-of-increased-air-co2-and-ma
    “Here, we report recent findings regarding coffee species exposure to combined supra-optimal air temperatures and enhanced air [CO2], and impacts of drought stress on the crop. Ultimately, we discuss key strategies to improve coffee performance in the context of new environmental scenarios. The recent findings clearly show that high [CO2] has a positive impact on coffee plants, increasing their tolerance to high temperatures. This has been related to a better plant vigor, to the triggering of protective mechanisms, and to a higher functional status of the photosynthetic machinery. … The current [CO2] in the atmosphere is still below the optimum for photosynthesis of C3 plants; therefore, leaf photosynthetic rates are predicted to increase in response to future increase in air [CO2], due to increased carboxylase activity of RuBisCO [82, 83, 96]. This C-fertilization may eventually reinforce plant vigor (and the defense systems), which, in turn, could reinforce the plant ability to endure environmental stresses [97]. On the other hand, elevated CO2 levels will especially benefit plants with strong sink capacity to use such increased amounts of photoassimilates. … In the case of coffee, significant increases of net photosynthesis, between 34 and 49%, were observed for C. canephora (Clone 153) and C. arabica (Icatu and IPR 108) genotypes [31], when comparing plants grown subjected to elevated [CO2] (700 [ppm]) or normal [CO2] (380 [ppm]) under environmental controlled conditions. Furthermore, under such high [CO2], plants also showed a better water-use efficiency, reinforcement of photosynthetic components and increased activity of key enzymes involved in photosynthesis and respiration, without noticeable leaf sugar accumulation. … Finally, recent studies based on modeling approaches accounting with high air [CO2] positive impact reported that coffee yield losses associated mostly with high temperatures can be offset by the CO2 fertilization effect, with a probably yield increase by 2040–2070 [36], or 2050, particularly at higher altitudes [37].”

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    Another Ian

    “Dark Green Money Reveals Vast Self-Dealing Network in Canada’s Climate Change “Leadership” like Green New Deal Proposal says Friends of Science”

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/01/18/dark-green-money-reveals-vast-self-dealing-network-in-canadas-climate-change-leadership-like-green-new-deal-proposal-says-friends-of-science/

    And Australia?

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    pat

    ***star? the article suggests something else:

    18 Jan: CNBC: In the absence of Trump, Brazil’s Bolsonaro likely to be the ***star attraction at Davos
    by Sam Meredith
    “Bolsonaro will be the first LATAM (Latin America) speaker at Davos, speaking for 45 minutes — but that’s where the danger is,” Carlos Caicedo, senior principal analyst for Latin America at IHS Markit, a London-based research firm, told CNBC via telephone on Friday.
    “At his inauguration, he only spoke for 10 minutes, meaning his advisors could keep him on message. But, this is a man who has made a name for himself by saying whatever he wants and only worrying about the consequences later … Thankfully there is no question and answer session afterwards,” Caicedo said…

    Yet, while he is likely to come under fire from some Davos attendees on issues ranging from climate change to human rights, analysts told CNBC he is likely to try to focus on how his administration plans to tackle pension reform….

    The main theme of this year’s WEF meeting is “Globalization 4.0: Shaping a New Architecture in the Age of the Fourth Industrial Revolution.”
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/18/without-trump-brazils-bolsonaro-is-set-to-take-center-stage-at-davos.html

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    Serge Wright

    This fake alarmist story is more aimed at the rich latte drinking inner city lefties who are already so alarmed, they can’t be made more alarmed anyway. Now if beer production was affected that would be different, except of couse those that drink beer are less likley to be conned by such obvious BS ;)

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    pat

    18 Jan: Haaretz Israel: Climate Catch-22: If We Eradicate Particle Smog, Earth Will Get Hotter
    And if we don’t, we’ll all get sicker and Earth will warm anyway, says Israeli-Chinese study that warns the particle cooling effect has been grossly underestimated
    by Ruth Schuster
    Whoever thought coal dust and other crud in our air would have a silver lining? We know that air pollution is giving us everything from asthma to cancer. But if that smog is broken down into components, the greenhouse gas component is warming the climate, but the particulate component is cooling it.

    Thing is, we have grossly underestimated that cooling effect of the tiny particles that float in the air, called aerosols, says a new paper by Israeli and Chinese scientists published Thursday in Science Advances.
    So, if Earth is being cooled much more than we realized by airborne particles, that means that without them, global warming would have been much worse than we have grasped, they say.

    Daniel Rosenfeld of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and Yannian Zhu of the Meteorological Institute of Shaanxi Province in China developed a new method of measuring the cooling effect of aerosols, based on satellite imagery, which they applied to low-lying clouds above the oceans. They discovered that aerosols’ cooling effect was nearly twice as great as previously thought. That’s quite the stunning error…

    Damned if you do, cooked if you don’t. The entirety of modern civilization relies on fossil fuels in a thousand ways, and their use releases methane and carbon dioxide (making the world hotter) and aerosol (the small particles — making the world cooler). What to do?…

    Happily, Rosenfeld thinks the answer is a no-brainer.
    In the long run, we need to make combustion more efficient and therefore cleaner because in any case, if we don’t, we will have more and more and more greenhouse gases but the particles won’t stay in the sky anyway.
    But the true answer is to decarbonize: to replace fossil fuels, from gasoline to coal, with renewable energy sources, which at this stage means wind and sun…READ ON
    https://www.haaretz.com/world-news/climate-catch-22-if-we-eradicate-particle-smog-earth-will-get-hotter-1.6850678

    17 Jan: Science Mag: Aerosol-driven droplet concentrations dominate coverage and water of oceanic low level clouds
    Daniel Rosenfeld, Yannian Zhu, Minghuai Wang, Youtong Zheng, Tom Goren, Shaocai Yu
    http://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2019/01/16/science.aav0566?rss=1

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    pat

    18 Jan: ClimateChangeNews: Climate NGO chief Wael Hmaidan sacked over bullying, harassment of staff
    Climate Action Network International terminates executive director after independent investigation finds ‘preponderance of evidence’ supporting complaints against him
    By Megan Darby
    The board of Climate Action Network International (Can-I) revealed its decision in a statement on its website (LINK) on Friday and apologised to staff who experienced “unacceptable behaviour”. Hmaidan did not respond to a request for comment…

    Can-I has a modest secretariat of 20-30 staff but wields huge influence through its network of more than 1,000 member NGOs worldwide. It coordinates campaigns, channels funding and liaises with power brokers in politics and business. Hmaidan was its figurehead and at the centre of its political activities…

    A series of complaints against Hmaidan were raised in November 2018, following an emotional appeal by Robert Borday, father of Holly Borday, who took her own life after a period working in Hmaidan’s office at Can-I.
    In an open letter to “the climate movement”, the grieving father wrote that “cruelty she faced at work” sent Borday spiralling into a depression she never recovered from.
    This prompted three letters from staff, detailing allegations against Hmaidan and lapses in Can-I’s duty of care…READ ON
    https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/01/18/climate-ngo-chief-wael-hmaidan-sacked-bullying-harassment-staff/

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    pat

    Bloomberg doesn’t like the idea:

    19 Jan: Bloomberg: St Baker, China Partner Plan A$6 Billion Coal Plants: Australian
    By David Stringer
    Australian power-sector tycoon Trevor St Baker will set out plans to build new coal-fired plants under proposals for A$6 billion ($4.3 billion) of developments with a Chinese joint venture partner, the Australian newspaper reported.
    St Baker, founder of ERM Power Ltd. and chairman of privately-held Sunset Power International Ltd., will submit plans next week to Australian Energy Minister Angus Taylor, according to the newspaper…

    The proposals by Baker would see a A$3 billion to A$4 billion power plant with capacity of 1300 megawatt hours built in Victoria state at the site of the shuttered Hazelwood station, a A$2 billion coal plant installed in New South Wales and a new A$500 million pumped hydro facility in South Australia.
    The plan is the cheapest way to supply the “essential firm generation you need for reliable operations,” St Baker was quoted as saying in the newspaper…

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s government has said it intends to underwrite new base-load generation, including coal-fired power, a position that’s been met with anger by environmental campaigners who argue the fuel should be phased out of the energy mix to help tackle climate change.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-19/china-to-partner-on-a-6-billion-coal-plants-proposal-australian

    18 Jan: ClimateChangeNews: The ‘laughing matter’ of Australia’s relationship with the Pacific
    The Fijian PM used the Australian leader’s visit to call out his promotion of fossil fuels, showing Scott Morrison is on the wrong side in the Pacific as well as at home
    By Richie Merzian
    (Richie Merzian is the climate and energy programme director at the Australia Institute)
    Yes, this is the same bloke who brought a lump of coal into the Australian parliament, telling everyone not to be afraid…
    Worse still, Morrison is doing all he can to subsidise Australia’s fossil fuel industries, which are putting the Pacific’s welfare at risk…

    Undeterred, the Morrison government is encouraging new drilling for oil in the Great Australian Bight, digging more coal out of Queensland (including support for the Adani coal mine) and fracking oil and gas in Western Australia and the Northern Territory. If Australia’s LNG ambitions are reached, it will rival Qatar as the largest gas exporter in the world – adding to its infamous position as the largest supplier of coal.

    Knowing all this, Morrison didn’t come empty handed to Fiji. He brought a few trinkets to make up for genuine concern, including an A$2 billion Pacific Infrastructure Fund.
    The problem is that A$1.5bn will take the form of concessional loans, which most indebted Pacific island countries can’t afford. Morrison’s colleague and former minister for the Pacific Concetta Fierravanti-Wells was so appalled she published an opinion piece (whilst he was in Fiji) blasting him for the ‘debt-trap diplomacy’. The other AUD$500 million will be grants, cut from existing Australian aid projects…

    Bainimarama’s speech during Morrison’s visit wasn’t just for the Aussie PM but all Australians…Working from Australia’s capital Canberra, which hit 40C-plus for the third day in a row, the message is resonating here. It’s likely the Fiji PM knows the Australian public is on his side – three in four Australians think the country is already experiencing the effects of global warming, like more heatwaves and extremely hot days, according to the Australia Institute’s 2018 Climate of the Nation report…
    https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/01/18/laughing-matter-australias-relationship-pacific/

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    pat

    18 Jan: MaritimeProfessional: World Seaborne Coal Trade Rose 3.7% in 2018
    by Vera Eckert
    World coal seaborne trade grew 3.7 percent last year helped by higher output in India, Indonesia and Russia, Germany’s VDKI coal importers lobby said on Friday.
    Imports and exports rose to 1.202 billion tonnes from 1.159 billion tonnes in 2017, VDKI Managing Director Franz-Josef Wodopia said in an speech made available to Reuters.

    Of the total, trade in steam coal used in power stations rose by 3.6 percent to 920 million tonnes…
    Trade in coking coal used for steelmaking rose by 4.4 percent to 281 million tonnes, the VDKI (Verein der Kohlenimporteure) estimated.

    World demand was driven by India, where the start-up of new power plants pushed imports over 200 million tonnes, delivered largely from Australia and Indonesia.

    China and Southeast Asia were other demand centres, served by Australia and Indonesia but also by South Africa, Russia, the United States and Colombia…
    https://www.maritimeprofessional.com/news/world-seaborne-coal-trade-rose-341833

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    RAH

    In his Friday video Joe Bastardi said that from January 15th through March 14th the continental US and Europe will record the greatest number of Heating Degree Days so far this century. IOW it will be the coldest during that period those areas have experienced so far this century. Children, even HS kids, will never have experienced such extended cold. Oh, and Dr. David Viner will have to stay in hiding since it is pretty much a given that all of the British isles including London, will have snow cover. Joe also predicted that soon the alarmists will be out in force explaining how a warming climate is causing so much cold weather and snow and that some of those on the other side of the argument will be claiming it’s the start of a new LIA. Make sure you have your popcorn ready because it’s probably going to be quite a show.

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    RAH

    BTW right now in Hoosier land we got a bit of freezing rain this morning and that is supposed to be followed by about 5-7 inches of snow. Then the bottom drops out as we get into sub zero F temps on Monday for what will most likely be an extended period. Brutal cold now in Canada heading this way. Quite the opposite of down under right now I see.

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    thingadonta

    Coffee trees are robust, they originally grew in Ethiopia which doesn’t have that much rainfall. It’s also the only thing incidentally the rats wouldn’t eat when I lived in the tropics, rats even eat toothpaste by biting through the tube; but they wouldn’t touch coffee, neither did the tropical ants, but leave a sandwich for 5 seconds and ants were all over it. Doesn’t sound like coffee is in any danger to me.

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    raygun

    Are those teats on the skywhale ?!?!

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    Yonason

    Leftists just instinctively hate Covfefe.

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    Rupert Ashford

    The irony is we have seen some crop losses the last 2 years or so, but (gasp) it’s all been due to record and untimely cold and snow events in areas where crops are normally harvested in marginal areas. But still crickets about the threat of the GSM. Seems they tried to swindle some $$$ out of the sun, but the cantankerous old so-and-so just ignored them so no use beating the GSM drum as there’s no $$$ to be pocketed…

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