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Despite record heat, six times as many people die of cold in Australia not heat

Australia has had the hottest temperatures for a thousand years (according to some). We’ve “shattered records” yet even so, at the peak of this hot era — six times as many Australians were felled by cold weather. Lord help us when the next ice-age comes.

A study on Australian deaths from 2000-2009 found that heat, cold, and temperature variability killed 42,000 people which was about 6% of all deaths. Of those temperature related deaths 60% were due to the cold. 28% were due to sudden changes in temperature. A mere 10% were due to heat.

Greenhouse gases should help prevent 90% of those deaths (they reduce temperature variability too). Looks like we need to burn more coal. For the sake of the vulnerable and needy.

When are our government and our government broadcaster going to start dealing with real problems, not fake ones?

 

...

Attributable fraction of deaths: Heat, cold and temperature variability together resulted in 42,414 deaths during the study period, accounting for about 6.0% of all deaths. Most of attributable deaths were due to cold (61.4%), and noticeably, contribution from temperature variability (28.0%) was greater than that from heat (10.6%).

 

Don’t assume we just got lucky. According to an ABC heatwave panic story, deaths from heatwaves during this 2000-2009 decade were among the worst.

Heatwave deaths, graph, Australia.

The ABC warns us repeatedly of the dangers of a few hot days

Heatwaves are Australia’s deadliest natural hazard and many of us are unprepared

Heatwaves are Australia’s deadliest natural hazard, but a recent survey has found that many vulnerable people do not have plans to cope with extreme heat.

A search for “ABC Cold Death Warning” turns up a story of a dead cook in a freezer.

Mortality, graph, temperature, heat. cold, Australia.

,,,,

Results

The greatest percentage increase in mortality was for cold (2.0%, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.4%, 2.6%), followed by heat (1.2%, 95% CI: 0.7%, 1.7%), and temperature variability (0.5%, 95% CI: 0.3%, 0.7%). There was no clear temporal pattern in mortality risk associated with any temperature exposure in Australia. Heat, cold and temperature variability together resulted in 42,414 deaths during the study period, accounting for about 6.0% of all deaths. Most of attributable deaths were due to cold (61.4%), and noticeably, contribution from temperature variability (28.0%) was greater than that from heat (10.6%).

Conclusions

Exposure to either cold or heat or a large variation in temperature was associated with increased mortality risk in Australia, but population adaptation appeared to have not occurred in most cities studied. Most of the temperature-induced deaths were attributable to cold, and contributions from temperature variability were greater than that from heat. Our findings highlight that, in addition to heat and cold, temperature variability needs to be considered in assessing and projecting the health impacts of climate change.

 

REFERENCES

Cheng et al (2019) Impacts of heat, cold, and temperature variability on mortality in Australia, 2000–2009, Science of The Total Environment,Volume 651, Part 2, 15 February 2019, Pages 2558-2565, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.186

h/t Pat.

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130 comments to Despite record heat, six times as many people die of cold in Australia not heat

  • #
    John F. Hultquist

    We do have A/C.
    Otherwise, hot is dealt with a spray bottle and shade.
    It is amazing what H2O mist does to the temperature.

    210

    • #
      TdeF

      Agreed, like antibiotics, both were a consequence of the American D Day landings at Normandy. Airconditioning has made climates like Queensland, Florida, Broome, Dubai not only survivable but enjoyable. Ice in your cool drink. Dial the temperature you prefer. How many people live outside in the hot sun any more?

      However if it is cold and you do not have coal to keep you warm, hundreds of millions are at risk through Eastern Europe and Ukraine. It is a huge cost they cannot afford to keep warm, even stay alive in winter.

      So what does the UN care about? A 0.5C rise in ‘world’ temperature, a 50% rise in CO2 and the fate of coral polyps and polar bears. The UN/IPCC can join the ABC/SBS, BBC, CNN/MSNBC, New York Times are the rest of the money desperate junkies who make their living from fake news, unverifiable fake science. Close or sell the lot.

      They only do great harm to the poor and do no good at all while claiming insanely that they are the voices of justice and science. Donald Trump is proving otherwise. European countries are fighting back too, Italy and Hungary. More are stirring against the new oppression of France and Germany and the tens of thousands of princes of the new Regime.

      300

      • #
        TdeF

        In Australia we by far the world’s biggest carbon tax, hidden in the energy bills. $200 a ton for coal, $400 a ton for gas. Diesel too. In fact any fuel which is not accepted, which is every fuel.

        No relief for the poor who cannot afford to stay warm in winter or cool in summer. Meanwhile the elites moan about saving the planet and the threat of 1.5C while ignoring the people who are suffering.

        No tax relief for the poor because amazingly, the Renewable Energy (Electricity) 2000 theft is not a tax at all. It is theft, with billions going overseas. Or subsidizing the rich and middle classes with solar panels and payin tariffs, with cash from the poorest segments of society. No one else benefits and we are all asked to give more. To save the planet? From whom?

        251

      • #
        Dean

        Wasn’t modern air conditioning developed to help quality control in printing?

        50

        • #
          TdeF

          Yes, it was a contract to stop the coloured ink running in the newspapers in New York. This was won by John Carrier’s firm, a company which had developed dehumidifiers for the tobacco/cigar industry. A really fascinating story which started with people like Mr Birdseye.

          Miniaturization of these huge machines was the next step, to move the glaciarium to the home. This move was required to keep food fresh for GIs. After the war, the whole world changed. Refrigerators, jeeps, cars, aircraft, microwaves, hot water services, good stoves, so much came from WWII it fills pages, but it also changed the quality of life in very hot areas like the Arabian peninsula.

          Now all we do is moan about 0.5C, as if that is anything at all. After 30 years, where are these devastating sea rises? It is all hokum.

          130

      • #
        Hanrahan

        How many people live outside in the hot sun any more?

        Many must, and if they died in the heat the death rate would be terrible. But they don’t.

        Some oldies might remember Nino Carlotta’s They’re a Weird Mob [Nino was really an Aussie] and the culture of hitting the pub after a hard day in the sun. Today’s tradesman is more educated and professional, they drink copious quantities of water while working and prompted by RBTs, take it easy at night.

        I barely use my aircons because I have a cool house and have lived most of my life without them. I think the problem lies with oldies living in suburbs that are nothing like they were when they raised their family, they are scared and lock up their houses. If you are concerned for your olldies, don’t buy them aircons, get them into a safe [gated?] community and visit them regularly.

        60

        • #
          TdeF

          I meant by choice. Of course we have developed ways to deal with the heat. I was amazed by the ancient step wells in India last month. Cool oases dug into the ground, because they didn’t have the British pumps. Magnificent structures. Leonardo Da Vinci would have had a solution with his water screw, but the point is that people learned how to cope. According to the IPCC, we cannot adapt to +0.5C. Ridiculous. Humans have adapted to Murmansk at 70North and to the Sahara (the Arabic for desert). No one asked for money to do so.

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          • #
            theRealUniverse

            Humans have been adapting ti live in +50 to -50 C in many regions for millenia. Lived through the last ice-age (bp 14000yr) even though the population was reduced quite substantially.

            70

            • #
              TdeF

              I have lived in Colorado through a regular -40C to +40C in one year. High altitude arid areas away from water do that. I cannot see that 0.5C would make any detectable difference to lifestyle. People lived there before air conditioning and central heating and the IPCC.

              What difference has the IPCC made to CO2 in the last 30 years anyway? You would have to say that nothing mankind is doing has any impact on CO2 levels so far. No have CO2 levels show any impact on world temperatures in the last 20 years. The only question remaining is what happened in the 1980s to produce an alleged rise of 0.5C in ten years? This coincided with the formation of the IPCC in 1988.

              50

  • #

    THere was a report a while back that analysed the deaths from cold (I think I have a reference in my blog post) and found that it didn’t require a significant drop in temperature for the death rate to increase. So we don’t need the Thames freezing over once again to have a large increase in deaths.

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  • #

    “Australia has had the hottest temperatures for a thousand years…”

    For a moment, let’s just forget about the futility of comparing the readings of the boozy postmaster in the paddock a hundred years ago with the readings of the buggy electronic device under the expressway today. Let’s pretend that min-max tells an accurate story and that no context or interpretation is needed once you have a bunch of numbers sanctified by gang-review. After all, you just need to turn on the TV and someone will talk about “doing the math” and “sciencing the sh@#t out of the problem”. Who wants to be the doddery old baby-boomer who “just doesn’t get it”?

    Yep. Let’s just accept that “Australia has had the hottest temperatures for a thousand years”. Agreed! It was very toasty for those European cathedral builders, those Greenland settlers, the peoples of the Andes and the Tang in China. So why not Australia? This one notion of high temps a thousand years ago demolishes the claims of the climatariat.

    And after the demolition, the clear geological indications of a warmer globe than now through much of the last ten thousand years will cart away the rubble.

    230

  • #
    Kinky Keith

    A recent thread on the Moon Astronauts reminded us of the qualities needed to bring about a successful mission.

    That Moon Project was the Ultimate test of Reality.

    By comparison, our National Broadcaster focuses attention, effort and cash on the amazing concept that extremes of temperature in our environment can lead to death.

    There are two points that could be made: it would interesting to know why the figures quoted are for ten year periods and also what other health problems were being experienced by those suffering death from abnormal temperatures.

    Someone might even like to estimate the annual death rate in Sydney as suggested by proportionality the national decadal total. Does it seem that bad on an annual basis.

    I think that Australia has bigger problems to face.

    It seems that some news is easy, globul warming always gets a run. Other issues just can’t be aired because they might embarrass politicians.

    KK

    101

  • #
    dp

    So what caused the record setting heat 1,000 years ago?

    130

    • #
      sophocles

      The Roman Warming, c 200BC – 300AD. Also known as The Roman Climatic Optimum (Wikipedia says 250BC to 400AD. Depends, I guess, on what you call cold and warm … I prefer a bit more warmth than coolth. )

      see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman_Warm_Period

      One of many warmings in the climate cycle … :-)
      Note Bene: it immediately preceded the Dark Ages so-called because they were cold and dark as well as a nadir of human civilization. Civilization, it’s rise and fall, tends to follow climate cycles closely. It’s all to do with food. Cold = crop failures and food failures, warm = bountiful crops and population growth.

      The climate has reached the end of the Eddy Warm Cycle and is poised on the cusp of falling into another cooling. Are you prepared to cope with food shortages?

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      • #
        el gordo

        From my understanding the cool wet summers throughout Europe and Britain brought about crop failure. In their malnourished state they were vulnerable to wave upon wave of plagues. The Black Death was a virus and presumably so were the other plagues.

        On the question of food shortages in the modern era, only war could disrupt the relief effort.

        Over here on the main island we have this flash idea of becoming a food bowl to the world, putting their hopes in new dams in the tropical north to bring water south. Due diligence is required and they haven’t factored in the essentials.

        http://www.co2science.org/articles/V21/oct/a8.php

        40

        • #
          sophocles

          The cold and the wet also meant people huddled together to keep warm, which created an ideal disease vector. The plague is passed through aerial droplets in the air from sneezing. Handkerchiefs and especially their use, were found to be effective anti-plague devices. That’s why we still have them.

          Think about the nursery rhyme:

          Ring a ring of rosy
          A Pocket full of posy
          Atishoo, atishoo,
          and we all fall down.

          (Sneeze and we die.)

          So malnourishment was one of the factors. The hugely improved vector made it a certainty.

          The NH crop failures are mostly of winter crops but its been enough to eat into the crop surpluses savagely. There isn’t a food shortage as such just yet, but prices are rising, and without surpluses, the past saved surplus won’t last much longer.

          Whatever happens will have two limiting boundaries or extremes. The extremes are:
          1. some nations will raise good surpluses and be able to provide relief.
          2. the world’s reserves disappear and nobody has a sufficient surplus to provide relief.

          In the second case, war will rage as some nations try to capture food. The most extreme of this limit will be nuclear becomes an option which is used.

          What will actually happen will be somewhere between the available extremes.

          Planners have to be sure of the precipitation to fill those dams. Lower sea surface temperatures will mean lower evaporation of water into the atmosphere, creating lower atmospheric moisture content, which means lower precipitation rates and creates a higher probability of extended and extensive drought. That’s one of the important factors: adequate precipitation both near and over the croplands.

          Water conservation would become a must, which means changing irrigation methods from wasteful broadcast to efficient Spot Irrigation. Spot irrigation would require miles and miles of small diameter tubes running water to each plant and metering it. That would make agriculture even more expensive.

          But, on the other shoe, he who has surplus food when everyone else is starving, can name his own price, as long as he has a sufficient investment in military forces to prevent theft.

          60

          • #
            Hanrahan

            Whatever happens will have two limiting boundaries or extremes. The extremes are:
            1. some nations will raise good surpluses and be able to provide relief.
            2. the world’s reserves disappear and nobody has a sufficient surplus to provide relief.

            Sadly the transition from feast to famine is but a couple of seasons, were it longer and predictable farmers’ self interest would smooth out the bumps somewhat. But modern farmers can never feed poverty stricken Africa without cheap energy, and is it self defeating to try to do so? “Band Aid” was a disaster, the Horn of Africa has exploded it’s population/poverty.

            20

      • #
        sophocles

        Then we have the Great Warming also known as the Medieval Warming. That started in or around 950 AD and ended between 1250 – 1290AD.
        It was a time of plentiful food, and was about 2°C warmer, at it’s peak, than it is now.

        There were plentiful crops and this created a large economic surplus, which was generally spent on:

        1. The Crusades (to keep the pagans out of the Holy Land and turn that into another European kingdom (Outremer was the collective name for the Crusader States carved out of what later became known as Palestine.)

        2. Building large cathedrals as lavish thank-you-for-your-Beneficence gifts to God, lest his wrath be unleashed and bring an end to the good times through plagues, famines, and maybe war. In lean years, the gifts reduced or dried up and the building slowed down or stopped for a while. (Cologne Cathedral paused for 400 years).

        Like all animals in times of plentiful food, mankind’s population across Europe grew from c. 34million to over 80million. The Little Ice Age some 400 years later savagely reduced that, through starvation and plagues.

        Like the preceding Roman Warming, the Medieval Warming was caused by an active sun. The increase in Solar Magnetic Activity provides an increase in shielding Planet Earth from incident Cosmic Rays. The fewer Cosmic Rays hitting the atmosphere, the fewer cloud condensation nuclei created and the fewer clouds. The fewer clouds, the more solar insolation the oceans are exposed to and the more they warm. They warm the atmosphere.

        When the Sun’s magnetic activity decreases, Cosmic Ray counts rise, there are more cloud condensation particles, more clouds acting as sun-shades and the ocean’s cool. (See the Svensmark Theory.) Lower Sea Surface temperatures make lower atmospheric temperatures.

        The changes are not massive, about +/- 10%-15% but it doesn’t seem to need huge changes in cloud cover to warm or cool the global climate significantly. It sure isn’t CO2 nor mankind. The warming wasn’t record setting: the Minoan Warming 4000 years ago was perhaps the warmest warming since the peak of the Holocene Optimum about 8,000 years ago. It hasn’t been reached since.

        It’s all cyclic and we’re poised on the edge of another grand cooling.

        Did you find any of this helpful or did you really know it all before? :-)

        170

        • #
          el gordo

          Yeah I knew it but the Eddy Cycle is novel.

          ‘The 976-year Eddy cycle, also referred as the millennial cycle, is one of the most constant solar periodicities reported. The Eddy cycle most clear climate correspondence is with several peaks in the Bond series of ice rafted debris that reflect cold periods in the North Atlantic area.’

          Euan Mearns / Energy Matters 2016

          ———–

          The people of England in 1042 AD had good teeth.

          40

          • #
            sophocles

            I know you know it—after all this time, it’s obvious. My above was part 2 of my response to dp @ # 5. You popped your paddle in while I wuz composing it, so it appears to be aimed at you. It isn’t and wasn’t.

            My mouse had a button-fart which somehow posted Part 1 @ #5.2 while I was writing it’s 5.1.2 which was supposed to be part of 5.2 but wasn’t. I threw Microsoft software out in 1994 for software farts like this and I have occasional concerns with Linux. This was one of them. 5.1.1.1 was aimed your way, as is this.

            That’s my story for the muddled labeling and I’m sticking with it. :-) .

            10

        • #
          el gordo

          Okay thanks Sophocles, this means a readjustment of my timeline, we are now confronted by the Oort Minimum and then global warming should pick up again.

          https://tallbloke.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/minimum.jpg

          The Anglo Saxons at the time were also as tall as modern people, a strong and healthy folk, people became shorter during the LIA.

          20

          • #
            sophocles

            I’ve wondered myself if we’re going to see an Oort-style minimum with a second play of warming for longer following it. I’m not so sure. Zharkova et al from their Solar Double Dynamo analysis are predicting the minimum at 2030 to be as deep as the Maunder (1645 – 1715) but nowhere nearly as long (maybe 15%, maybe not). We won’t know until it bites. The leading edge of that bite was brought forward this year from five years away to three.

            Davidson (Suspicious 0bservers) video essay ( Energy from Space | The Shift Has Begun: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nsqZJP54shg ) is offering a poor recovery over the long term. The Earth’s magnetosphere had lost 15% of its strength over just over the previous decade to date which indicates/suggests a magnetic pole swap may be imminent to add to our climate woes.

            If you look at the timeline you linked to, look at the Sporer minimum. Jack Eddy proposed it was a Solar Minimum. Zharkova proposes it was not a solar minimum because the aurorae were active, indicating an active Sun, but it was a Galactic Cosmic Ray storm. ( Zharkova, Valentina: -Reinforcing the double dynamo model with solar-terrestrial activity in the past three millennia free pdf: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.04482.pdf espec. Sporer Minimun hypothesis.)

            10

          • #
            sophocles

            The Anglo Saxons were well fed. After 1066, that wasn’t so much the case.

            10

        • #
          el gordo

          They say the best kept secret is the one you keep from yourself, I know now where we are in time and space.

          I still want to include the 87 year Gleissberg Cycle, so that we can join the dots more effectively.

          10

      • #
        Hanrahan

        Are you prepared to cope with food shortages?

        No probs! The increased plant food, CO2, will compensate. We are in a state of excess ATM, evidenced by protective trade barriers and growers’ subsidies.

        30

        • #
          sophocles

          The increased plant food, CO2, will compensate.

          We can hope. Frost and cold at planting and again at harvest are deadly. Growers are going to have to move quickly to obtain cold resistant seed stock, stock which can cope with shorter growing seasons, and so on. I suspect that seed stock exists but in what quantities and how soon can it be distributed?

          10

      • #

        In 1971 I hitch-hiked right by the Pass of Thermopylae and missed it by looking toward the waters of the Gulf of Malia. Looked the wrong way, didn’t I?

        Regardless of whether it was siltation or some other geological forcing, that famous narrow stretch between mountains and coast is now a wide plain cut by a busy road. You would think that in the somewhat cooler period before the Roman Warming the sea would have been much further from the pass than now. Yet the Spartans and other Greeks would not have been able to cramp the Persian forces on today’s plain.
        https://tinyurl.com/yam46er8

        You would think that some old siltation would not be able to resist the disastrous sea level rise we are supposed to be experiencing right now. Yet Rome has an airport where it once parked boats. That’s some silt!

        All we can manage of sea level rise is a dribble since the 1700s. This is an easily ascertained fact…which therefore has to be buried under piles of factoids and sensationalism. When a crumbly, overbuilt slice of coastal land slides into the sea, that gets noticed. The old hydrographic records of geologically stable places like Australia are not to be mentioned in cultivated circles. Uncultivated people might get the wrong idea.

        20

    • #
      theRealUniverse

      Early coal fired power stations..Probably built by aliens.

      60

  • #
    Roy Hogue

    Statistical malpractice has been around since the percent sign “%” was invented. Why would it suddenly change now?

    I once gave this advice to someone who was fighting an insurance problem. Always operate from the strongest position you can manage to get, not the weakest one. And it’s far more to the warmist’s advantage if they make their position as strong as it can be made. So they ignore the cold and emphasize the heat related death.

    But when I was handing out my advice I didn’t envision lying by omission as one of the ways to increase the strength of your argument.

    130

    • #
      sophocles

      Back in or around 1848, an English judge was heard to opine (quite forcefully), that:

      There are Liars, Damned Liars and Experts.

      Sometime between then and the 1880′s, it sort of morphed into:

      There are Liars, Damned Liars and Statistics.

      I have a slight prejudice towards the first :-)

      110

      • #
        Roy Hogue

        One way or the other there liars and there are statistics. And it’s so easy to make statistics lie that I look for several opinions about something before even thinking of believing it.

        A good example is the supposed danger of second hand smoke. And don’t get me wrong, I’m very happy to not be inhaling smoke everywhere I go. It’s unpleasant even if it’s totally harmless. And higher levels of smoke are well known to be dangerous, even deadly. But they don’t happen from someone smoking.

        If you know statistics you know that 95% confidence is the smallest number that since the beginning anyone would accept as showing even a weak correlation.

        The EPA’s data couldn’t make it at 95% but of course the outcome was predetermined by politics, not science so what did the EPA do? They simply lowered the standar to 90% and voila, second hand smoke is as deadly as smoking.

        The public in general has about as much statistical background as your average bronze statue and doesn’t know they should ask a question or two, much less what the question should be.

        I saw all sorts of rationalizations trying to justify that little ruse. The worst was to assume that testing second hand smoke was not a new independent test but depended on the finding that smoking is harmful. Therefore the shortcut to the desired result was justified.

        Now here’s the clincher for me. And I speak only for myself. I grew up in a household where my father smoked like a house afire. Many evenings smok hung across the living room like a cloud at whatever lever it found equilibrium. I have yet to find a single thing the matter with me that can be traced to exposure to smoke. And when my father died it was not from smoking related difficulty.

        It may well be that constant exposure to the level of smoke I was exposed to does do some harm or that people are all different so some may be harmed. But to make second hand smoke as dangerous as active smoking is one of your damned lies.

        10

  • #
    Mal

    We should have the cheapest electricity in the world with coal fired power stations and moving to nuclear.
    Then we could afford cheap air conditioning.
    Then no deaths from overheating.

    Therefore no problem.

    Simples

    240

    • #
      Hanrahan

      We should have the cheapest electricity in the world ,,,,,,,

      Have you ever been in/near a union run workplace?
      Collinsville SHOULD have been a successful power station, built on the coal seam, but it was always a disaster – The mine, the power station and the town itself were run by the union mob. I did some contracting in the power station in the ’70s and the “do not operate” tags fluttered everywhere. Even the unreliable lift’s phone was physically broken. You remember the handpieces at the time? You could drive over them with a truck and they wouldn’t break. Somehow they managed.

      Militant unions were killing the country then, what has changed?

      20

  • #
    Another Ian

    Somewhat O/T but a good example of one who has been spectacularly wrong in their field of expertise expecting us to believe them when they stray out of their field

    “Nobel Prize Winning Economist Weighs In On Climate Science”

    https://realclimatescience.com/2018/10/nobel-prize-winning-economist-weighs-in-on-climate-science/

    80

    • #
      RickWill

      Krugman is not a Nobel Prize winner. There are only 5 Nobel prizes awarded each year and they are in the areas of chemistry, physics, medicine, literature, and peace.

      Krugman has an award from the Swedish Central Bank that is in honour of Alfred Nobel. It is a blight on Nobel’s legacy to refer to this award as the Nobel Prize in Economics. There is no such award. It is correctly abbreviated to the Sveriges Riskbank Prize in Economics.

      50

  • #
    Gaz

    Some years ago I did a ‘quick and dirty’ seasonal analysis of death from all causes for every region I could find data on (WHO has much of this). I found only 2 regions (out of a hundred or so) where summer deaths outstripped winter deaths – one was northern Canada and the other was the North of one of the Scandinavian countries – I forget which. Anyway, looking a bit further, each of those regions had virtually zero population in winter and a bunch of summer cabin folk and tourists in summer blasting away at the wildlife as ‘hunters’

    120

    • #
      Roy Hogue

      …blasting away at the wildlife as ‘hunters’

      That’s a good thing to point out. The anti gun people here lump all gun deaths together and try to tell us they’re all preventable if NO ONE could have a gun. The unfortunate thing is that a fair percentage of those deaths are suicides and the gun was there to use. But if someone really is intent on doing it the lack of a gun would not stop them. An overdose of the right over the counter drug could easily kill you.

      Hunting accidents account for another fairly small percentage. And the rest are some nut case intent on using the gun to enforce his will on others or plain old murder. And you can make all the gun control laws you want to but the criminal, by definition, doesn’t obey laws. I will guarantee you that if I wanted a gun and could not get it legally I would be able to get it illegally. It might take some time but I could get it.

      So death statistics can be manipulated like any other number and made to look justified. But with so many years behind us now during which the cause of death can be easily determined, why do they persist in claiming heat is such a villain?

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    • #
      sophocles

      In NZ we have around 3 – 5 deaths on average per year from mishandling and misuse of a firearm. The Police keep very careful statistics. We have a population heading for 5 million (malpractice on the part of the government but that’s another story). There are about 250,000 owners and users of firearms in New Zealand. We have had the odd year where there has been zero and the odd year where there has been about 7.

      Breaking one’s neck by tripping over a firearm is not counted.

      I have no idea how these statistics compare with other countries or whether they are good or bad.
      I would be interested to hear about South Australia and Victoria over recent years.

      50

      • #
        robert rosicka

        No idea for Victoriastan but we’ve had a lot of gang and drug related shootings in previous years .

        20

        • #
          OriginalSteve

          Fun fact – death by knife in London is higher than death by guns in NY…..

          Have they implemented knife control yet?

          30

  • #
    Yonniestone

    The deaths from TV doesn’t surprise me, remember when Video killed the Radio Star?

    90

  • #
    Robber

    Does this pass the pub test? More people die from the cold in Sydney and Brisbane than in Melbourne? In Brisbane overnight lows rarely drop below 9°C. Don’t they own warm clothes or blankets? I wonder what the numbers are for Hobart and Ballarat. I lived for several years in New York where lows were around minus 10°C. Now that’s cold.

    60

    • #
      Binny Pegler

      ‘Don’t they own warm clothes or blankets’ Actually no – That’s the problem. Also most of the houses are designed to get rid of heat, not hold it.
      You also need to remember that these are old people, who are going to die at some point anyway.Their circulation is poor and a brief drop in the temp, is all it takes to tip them over the edge as their body struggles to adjust.

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    • #

      That was part of the analysis I mentioned earlier. People in hotter climes suffer more from temperature drops than those in colder climes. And no, the former don’t usually have any form of heating as we found out decades back when we moved to Townsville. There was a sudden cold spell (as far as the locals were concerned) and every store sold out of electric heaters as locals froze, while we wandered about in t-shirts and short marvelling at the mind weather.

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      • #
        Annie

        We had a similar experience one September in Perth; we felt freezing cold in the unheated house.
        Once, when our son and his family were visiting the Gold Coast from the Arabian Gulf, he astonished Queenslanders by wearing a thick fleece in the height of a QLD summer!
        It’s partly a matter of what you are used to and to what you have been acclimatised.
        I’m the sort of wimp who likes it neither too hot nor too cold, especially if it’s humid. Dry heat is preferable to me.

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          robert rosicka

          Spare a thought for those living in Oodnadatta and William creek , it can be as much as 50C during the day and as cold as -7 at night .
          Not sure they will notice any Globull warming during the day but will appreciate anything we can do for warmer nights .

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      Salome

      I spent two years in Brisbane a couple of years ago. Believe me, by dawn in winter it was cold–sometimes down to around 3 degrees, in a house designed to maximise draught, even though it had no fly wire so you couldn’t open it up in summer without getting visited by anything that flew or crept and even the neighbour’s cat. The shops ran out of heaters.

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      Hanrahan

      Think about it! Unless broken down in the desert or snow storm, “temperature” doesn’t kill directly. Your [a general "you"] attitude to it might help.

      Having lived most of my life in the tropics I know of no-one who died directly of the heat but I will admit to severe headaches when careless. Conversely I know of a race of people who came out of Europe, who toiled cutting cane and thrived on a bit of vino, so much so that Ingham is “little Italy” and other cane towns nearly so. By comparison the “ten pound poms” got off the boat at Circular Quay and started whinging, or so the story goes. :)

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      Hanrahan

      In Brisbane overnight lows rarely drop below 9°C. Don’t they own warm clothes or blankets?

      Nobody freezes to death, EVER, in Qld.

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    robert rosicka

    I still remember the heat wave warning from BOM issued to Tasmania for a day of extreme 29 C temps last year .

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      el gordo

      Tasmanians are sensitive creatures, there are pockets who still have the appearance of early English convicts. They have a lot of respect for anyone from ‘the mainland’.

      BoMs seasonal forecast went through a stage of painting Tasmania red, with the global warming meme attached but not spoken.

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        Hanrahan

        They have a lot of respect for anyone from ‘the mainland’.

        Or, as our lovely hostess at Woolnorth called it: North Island.

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        • #
          sophocles

          as our lovely hostess at Woolnorth called it: North Island.

          Did you tell her she was wrong? North Island, South Island and West Island are all copyright NZ :-)

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    TedM

    Heatwaves are dangerous when you don’t have reliable, abundant and affordable power. Cold even more so.

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    TedM

    Has the ABC noticed that?

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    • #
      el gordo

      The Australian Brainwashing Company will consider your question, but don’t expect an answer until hell freezes over.

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    yarpos

    I always wonder about attribution with these sorts of stats. Are these actual deaths directly caused by hot and cold? or deaths due to conditions accelerated by hot and cold? in those years did any more people die overall that the long term trend? I guess we will never know. Bit like “smoking related deaths” I am sure there are many , and also pretty sure its a handy label on many more.

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    pat

    6 Oct: Guardian: Most Wentworth voters want Nauru children brought to Australia
    Exclusive: Poll shows climate change tops list of issues for people in the electorate, ahead of the economy and hospital funding
    by Katharine Murphy
    A poll commissioned by the Refugee Council of Australia says 65.4% of a sample of 870 Wentworth residents want children on Nauru brought to Australia, supporting a recent public intervention to that effect by the Australian Medical Association and other medical groups.
    The poll also suggests climate change is a significant issue in the byelection…
    Climate change topped a list of issues influencing the votes of local residents on 20 October, ranking ahead of the economy and hospital funding, and 62.3% of the sample said they would be more likely to vote for a candidate with a credible plan to tackle climate change…

    Liberal polling tighter than Scott Morrison admits in Wentworth
    Daily Telegraph-4 hours ago
    Independent candidate Dr Kerryn Phelps…(issues) were “getting kids off Nauru”, climate change, the independence of the ABC…

    no problem putting on the A/C in Wentworth, so no CAGW problems in that regard.

    Waterfront properties under threat? doubt it. in fact, some might be buying up riverfront property in warmer climes!

    20 Oct: news.com.au: Buyers rush to buy riverfront property as prices float to the top
    SOME of the state’s most prestigious waterfront estates have flooded the market for the first time in years, luring interest from interstate buyers keen to swap Sydney Harbour for the Brisbane River.
    Tens of millions of dollars worth of prime real estate is up for grabs as sellers who have held on to their ritzy riverside pads take advantage of an increase in demand and record sale prices
    House prices in Brisbane’s flood prone suburbs are outperforming the rest of the city, with the 2011 disaster now a distant memory for many home hunters…
    Data from property researcher, CoreLogic, reveals many of the suburbs affected by the Brisbane floods have achieved double digit house price growth in the past five years.

    New Farm achieved the biggest jump in house price growth in that period — climbing nearly 74 per cent compared to the Brisbane average of 20.9 per cent.
    House prices in Corinda have increased by nearly 52 per cent in the past five years, followed by Norman Park, with 46% growth, and Hawthorne, which is up 36 per cent…

    Adcock Prestige principal Jason Adcock, who is marketing more than 10 riverfront properties in Brisbane at the moment, said demand for riverfront homes was “incredibly high” and they held strong potential for further capital growth.
    “The prices we’re achieving for these properties at the moment are better now than what they were pre-floods and some of the prices being achieved are breaking records,” Mr Adcock said.

    “There are only 850 absolute riverfront properties in Brisbane and they’re not making anymore.
    “In fact, it’s a diminishing supply because they’re getting rid of some and building units and high rises, so I see some incredible capital growth in riverfront property over the next three to five years.”…
    Mr Adcock said a quarter of his riverfront sales were to interstate buyers or expats…
    “They’re coming home to get that beautiful trophy home and put their kids through their remaining years of high school,” he said…
    https://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/brisbane-qld/buyers-rush-to-buy-riverfront-property-as-prices-float-to-the-top/news-story/634046ba59e659a466c7968bb1030c00

    as for “independence of the ABC” – what does that mean? independence to air any unproven theory about CAGW that fits their agenda?

    someone should do an NPC cartoon of Phelps as the “ultimate NPC” with the word “Wentworth” behind her, and the “o” in Wentworth showing an NPC face. under “Went” you could have an NPC Turnbull under the “t”. wish I could do it myself.

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      Robber

      What are they smoking in Wentworth?
      62.3% of the sample said they would be more likely to vote for a candidate with a credible plan to tackle climate change.
      Nothing an elected candidate from Wentworth can do will change the climate. Nothing an Australian government can do will change the climate. This is evidence of a brainwashed/brain dead community.

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      Greg in NZ

      Pat, “absolute riverfront properties” – what could go wrong! Then again, https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12144780 , “Aucklanders being asked to support a $1.8 billion stadium on the waterfront… The stadium will be built [...] partly on reclaimed land and partly sunk into the seabed about 28m below sea level.” What could go wrong!

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        theRealUniverse

        ..’ What could go wrong!’ A 28m sea level rise of course. Any more heatwaves an all that antarctic ice will melt .!

        I still dont get where they get the 1000 yr record from, another made up thing to make everything extreem.
        I suspect there were probably heatwaves in the last big ice age in some places.

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        sophocles

        What could go wrong!

        Ah, yes, the WSS Auckland.

        Will it have enough lifeboats?
        Or will it do a Titannic?

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    pat

    comment in moderation.

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    el gordo

    Here is a fairly recent critique of the Lancet, the British medical journal, which is a strong supporter of the AGW theory.

    https://inconvenientfacts.xyz/heat-%26-life%2C-cold-%26-death

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    Jeff

    I do think it is crazy to say warming will cause more deaths,
    but it is a very complicated to draw any real conclusions.
    Most people that supposedly die of cold or heat will only last a few more days.
    Winter deaths are higher in developed countries, but that is because now colds and flus are a major killer of the elderly and they are spread in closed up buildings (hence the flu season) IMO.
    In the middle ages summer had the highest death rates because diseases like dysentery and malaria and warfare killed more people then.

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      Ken Stewart

      “In the middle ages summer had the highest death rates because diseases like dysentery and malaria and warfare killed more people then.”
      Not just the middle ages- in Australia 120 years ago death rates were higher in summer.

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      el gordo

      That last sentence is open to debate, the middle ages covered two cold epochs and the Medieval Warm Period, but on the question of malaria we have the monks to thank for draining the swamp.

      https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16397424

      The plagues killed more people than direct warfare throughout all of Europe, thank dog for modern medicine we have inherited the earth.

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        Jeff

        Yes, I forgot the plague was the major disease.

        “Dr Cummins examined the fates of 1.3m European nobles, looking back as far as the first millennium AD. He identified the death dates, or at least death seasons, of 230,000 of them. In the 11th century, the first for which the numbers are statistically meaningful, 118 died in summer for every 100 who died in winter. That ratio peaked in the 14th century, at 153. But by the 1700s, it had fallen to 89. From that point onwards summer got ever friendlier. By the 20th century only 81 people died then for every 100 winter deaths.

        There are probably two reasons why the summer months were so deadly. One is medieval nobles’ penchant for warfare, mostly a summer activity in those days. The other is disease, particularly bubonic plague. Warmth would be good for the rats that (via the fleas they carry) spread plague. And the biggest plague of the past millennium was the Black Death of the 14th century, which killed about one-third of the European population. Only in the 18th century, with plague defeated and battle delegated to professional soldiers, did summer become the safest season to be alive.”

        https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2014/10/24/the-cruellest-months

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        Hanrahan

        thank dog for modern medicine we have inherited the earth.

        You don’t need to be dyslectic to appreciate that boomers in Aus and US won the lottery the day we were born. Anaesthetics, antibiotics, understanding nutrition [sort of], dentistry, electricity, the internal combustion engine and MAD making global war obsolete ensured massive changes in both length and quality of life.

        Why are they stuffing it all up now?????

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      James

      The other issue with the flu is if you want to help the weakest who will not survive the flu, then you should only vaccinate the weakest. If you vaccinate everyone as they recommend now in the USA at least, then you have just selected for a new stain of influenza that will kill the weakest who would have otherwise been protected by the vaccine. That I believe is why we hear about how ineffective the flu vaccine is!

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        Hanrahan

        Dunno. Wasn’t the swine flu hitting the young and fit? I recall that but maybe that was WHO alarmism selling their “cures”.

        I don’t recall ever having had the flu and laugh at my GP when she advises the injection. Keep your hands clean, don’t cross infect nose. eyes. mouth and don’t work in a large, airconditioned petrie dish.

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      Hanrahan

      colds and flus are a major killer of the elderly

      That looks more like stinkin thinkin than science to me. I come from a large family of long livers, none died of a cold or flu. Do you have supporting evidence?

      I think this conversation should examine the effects of poverty and loneliness, they might be the primary killers. Why does the temperature at the time matter?

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    Earl

    Ahh.
    Remember the good old days, when you would poke your head out the door to check the weather.
    If it was cold, you might put jumper on, if it looked a bit warm, a hat might be in order. Assessing the current weather was not hard, and by the time we reached 5 or 6 years of age we got pretty good at it. If you got it wrong, your mother would berate you for being a bit stupid.
    Now we have urgent radio broadcasts warning of extreme weather, to drink lots of water, to wear a hat, or put on a coat, to stay in the shade.
    There people who listen to this, unable to be personally responsible for their own welfare. Waiting for the next text, warning of impending doom, providing instruction for the pursuit of their miserable day. I am a Baby Boomer, and have managed to get through life thus far, without listening to the prophets of catastrophic Armageddon, but, unfortunately, some people of my age still hold the abc in misplaced high regard..Sell it, burn it , chuck it in the bin. The abc needs to go, it is causing an enourmous amount of devisive social damage.

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      Ken Stewart

      Absolutely correct. We are breeding and training a population of sooks who are too useless to think for themselves, take responsibility, and more importantly, consider the consequences of their thoughtlessness for other people.

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      el gordo

      Earl we may have to wait for a Royal Commission into climate change before dismantling takes place, but that gives us time to prepare our case against aunty.

      The propaganda has been extremely powerful because people had faith in the old dear, but now that the brash upstart Sky is in the regions, its a game changer.

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        Bobl

        Yes, sky will change the bush, reliable news without the dose of socialism. Well Unless you watch the morning shows or richo which all have a left lean. Even Speers is a bit of a lefty. I think it’s having an impact based on the change in quality of the advertising.

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    Ruairi

    In Australia, the heat is a threat,
    Killing scores, much to mourn and regret,
    While the cold and the chill,
    Claim the top weather kill,
    A hard fact that warmists forget.

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    Geoff Sherrington

    Some of us have not been doing our reading, have we?
    Here is the analysis of Australia’s capital city heatwaves, showing that the official line is most often false. That is, heatwaves have not usually become longer, hotter or more frequent over the years, in 6 of our capital cities.

    http://joannenova.com.au/2015/02/heatwaves-in-australia-not-longer-not-more-common-why-wont-bom-and-abc-say-that/

    Here are some easy-to-read graphs to back this all up.

    http://www.geoffstuff.com/graphs_sydmelb_heatwaves.pdf

    You know, a good way to argue your case is with data. Geoff.

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      robert rosicka

      Faith beats Data any day .

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      Bill In Oz

      Hi Geoff, thanks for your comment here.. Very interesting post and your comment made me look at the 2015 JoNova post on ‘heatwaves’ 5 capital cities.

      Most;y good but one ‘fact ‘ bothers me..
      In early January 2000 I visited my brother in Adelaide for 10 days ( Rose Park, just 2 ks from the BOM office at Kent Town) and it was a cooker of a heat wave the whole time…In fact so hot I went twice down to Port Elliot to cool off…

      But this heat wave doe snot get a mention in the charts presented for Adelaide..And I wonder why…

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        robert rosicka

        It’s called “Homogenisation ” , used by BOM to make the past cooler and everyday now warmer .

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      • #
        Geoff Sherrington

        Bill in Oz,

        Here is how the graphs were calculated, use Adelaise for an example.
        The longest set of weather records was chosen. The were analysed both from Climate Data ONline, CDO, and Acorn, for the other BOM data set starting in 1910.
        Foer a 6-day series, for example, all values of the average of every six days in a row was calculated for the BOM Tmax values. For every year, the highest 6=day everage was chosen. The years were then ranked from the hottest 6-day average to the coolest. The “Top 20″ indices were chosen and plotted as you see on the graphs.
        So, to answer your question of why year 2000 does not show – there were 19 years or more with hotter averages. Did not make the Top 20.

        One can argue about the details of the methodology, such as which weather stations to choose to represent Adelaide and why, but it remains that by this simple analysis, not more than adding up and taking away numbers and calculating an average, there is scant evidence for worsening heat waves at the stations representing these capitals.

        When the simple analysis is fairly compelling, it poses questions that need to be answered before alternative, complicated explanations need to be invoked.
        I other words, dare you to show me wrong.

        Cheers Geoff.

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          Bill In Oz

          Geoff, thanks for the reply.

          But I do not understand your reply.It’s full of gobbledegook.

          And before you get offended, please know I am not challenging you. I am challenging the capacity of the BOM to accurately measure weather and then record it.

          The heat wave of January 2000 happened.Full stop.

          I was staying in an apartment with no AC and each evening we waited to see if the Hills Wind would cool things down. That apartment was in Rose Park,near the CBD, not 2 ks from the BOM’s head quarters at Kent Town.

          If the BOM’s methodology leads to the fact of that heatwave being denied or erased, it’s a stuffed methodology mate.

          A black swan.

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    Greg in NZ

    Despite never-ending prophecies of The Death Of Snow –

    https://www.arapahoebasin.com/the-mountain/opening-day/

    Friday 19 October 2018, A-Basin in Colorado cranked-up the chairlifts for its official Opening Day – hoot! Had the privilege of being there for Opening Day 1990 (!) when I lived in Summit County, CO (having given up skiing for a snowboard). Killington Mountain in Vermont also had its Opening Day on Friday. But, but, it’s too hot, innit?

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    pat

    Independent goes from sales of “NEW” cars to giving the impression ???other countries are outright banning petrol & diesel cars:

    19 Oct: UK Independent: Ban ***NEW*** petrol and diesel cars by 2032 instead of current ‘unambitious’ target, MPs say
    by Josh Gabbatiss
    In response to these threats, the government has announced its intention to make all new cars and vans “effectively zero-emission” by 2040.
    However, the new report by the parliamentary business committee echoed many environmental groups in calling for a stricter and clearer deadline, in lines with several other nations.

    ???Norway has pledged to ban petrol and diesel vehicles by 2025, and India by 2030. Even the Scottish government has said it will outdo the UK by phasing them out by 2032…

    Simon Alcock from environmental lawyers ClientEarth, who have successfully taken the government to court three times over its illegal air pollution, agreed that the ban on dirty vehicles must come sooner…
    Greenpeace clean air campaigner Morten Thaysen said with UK carbon emissions falling just 2 per cent since 1990, a phase-out date of 2040 is too late…
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/petrol-diesel-cars-ban-vehicles-vans-2032-air-pollution-climate-change-a8590661.html

    Independent has a habit of doing this; note this headline, which Norway has denied; even in the article, it makes clear it’s about new sales:

    4 Jun: UK Independent: Norway to ***’completely ban petrol powered cars by 2025′
    ‘What an amazingly awesome country’, Elon Musk tweeted in response to the plan
    by Jess Staufenberg
    Norway will ban the ***SALE*** of all fossil fuel-based cars in the next decade…
    ???Politicians from both sides of the political spectrum have reportedly reached some concrete conclusions about 100 per cent of Norwegian cars running on green energy by 2025…
    “Just heard that Norway will ban ***NEW*** sales of fuel cars in 2025,” (Musk) wrote…

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    pat

    only in NPC-infested-Australia!

    19 Oct: Guardian: Wentworth becomes test bed for how federal election will treat climate change
    Coalition of green groups has been working hard to ensure voters realise they have a chance to give Liberals a wake-up call
    by Anne Davies
    Young people in colourful T-shirts bearing slogans of Stop Adani, and members of Renew and other green groups, have been fanning out across Sydney’s eastern suburbs to knock on as many doors as possible – not for any particular candidate, but for a specific cause…

    The well-educated voters of Wentworth, who might once have felt reassured that Turnbull would prevail, now see that the party that they have supported for 60 years is not the moderate “small l” Liberal party they voted for…

    GetUp’s climate campaigner, Miriam Lyons, says it’s not just Wentworth; climate change is now as big an issue as it was in the 2007 election campaign.
    That does not bode well for the Coalition at the next election…

    A coalition of environmental groups has been working together in the electorate to ensure that voters realise they have an opportunity to send a message on climate change…
    GetUp has organised an army of phone banking volunteers who have called more than 85,000 of Wentworth’s 103,000 registered voters…
    Over the past few days, volunteers have swelled to more than 100 each night…

    GetUp will have literally hundreds of volunteers at polling places handing out cards that explain how to cast your vote for the environment. It gives four options: Greens, the independents Kerryn Phelps and Licia Heath, and Labor…

    Several green groups also organised a candidate forum at Bondi Pavilion, which was attended by 300 people. But it received good national exposure, thanks to speakers from the conservative side of politics – John Hewson and Geoff Cousins, who were joined by coral expert Professor Terry Hughes.
    Hewson, a former Liberal leader, has urged voters concerned with climate change to vote against the Liberals…
    Hewson’s intervention seems to have been a turning point, aided by Malcolm Turnbull’s son, Alex Turnbull…

    The ACF does not issue how-to-vote cards, but has sent its 5,000 supporters in Wentworth a scorecard rating each candidate on their environmental policies and has asked them to talk to their friends and family about the issues…
    The advertising has also been more conventional, and the ACF has been running advertisements about climate change and drought in local cinemas, while GetUp has crowd-sourced funds for mobile billboards that have become regular features on the streets of Wentworth…

    The ACF has also produced electorate-specific data on what climate change will mean for that community. It plans to replicate the work, by the Australian National University, for more electorates during the the general election.
    Wentworth is proving a useful test bed for strategies the environmental groups plan to use next year.
    “Wentworth is a trial run for tactics for the election next year,” McFadzean says. “The main challenge will be to keep climate as an issue through the UN Conference of Parties meeting in Poland and into next year.”
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/19/wentworth-becomes-test-bed-for-how-federal-election-will-treat-climate-change

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    pat

    20 Oct: ABC: Wentworth by-election: Dave Sharma interupted by anti-Adani protesters at press conference
    Updated 24 minutes ago
    Mr Sharma was surrounded by the protesters during an impromptu media conference.
    “Well I’ve served in a war zone in Bougainville and in the Middle East, so I’ve seen some challenging times,” Mr Sharma told reporters, while protestors chanted “stop Adani, climate action now”.
    Mr Sharma said climate change was a “global challenge” and he supported the Paris agreement.
    “I’m putting myself forward as the best candidate to help rebuild the party … [and to] get the Parliament refocused on the issues that matter to the country.”…

    One resident, who had just cast his vote, told the ABC it was the first time he had not voted for the Liberals…
    “I’ve gone off the Liberals or the National Party, you know, they’re all over the place.
    “And what they did to Malcolm Turnbull here is dead wrong. They’re making little mistakes all the time, what are they doing in the big mistakes, we don’t know.”…

    ***(Kerryn Phelps) told media she sought to “set the agenda” for the by-election by talking about “issues that are important to the future of Australia”.
    “Climate change, what’s happening to kids on Nauru, getting them and their families away from Nauru, supporting the independence of the ABC, these are all important issues for the Australian people and they’re important to the future of our country,” Dr Phelps added…
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-20/dave-sharma-wentworth-by-election-media-conference-interrupted/10399698

    ***for more, see comment #16 which is now out of moderation.

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    Stanley Parks

    Can some-one explain mortality from Temperature Variability? I get it that heat stroke and hypothermia cause deaths but how does a change in temperature (either up or down) in a matter of a few hours cause death? You mean you got a chill or asthma? Anyway how can TV be conflated with climate change? Its just weather! Hang on I feel suddenly cold. Croak!

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    pat

    from the ABC “Just In” page: After a childhood of staring at clouds in the cold shadows of Dracula’s castle, forecaster Gabriel Branescu’s fascination with weather draws him to the ***climatic extremes of Queensland

    20 Oct: ABC: Dracula’s weatherman flees cold climates to face the Queensland sun
    By Shelley Lloyd
    Gabriel Branescu speaks four languages, has lived on four continents, guided Soviet-made MiG fighter jets on sorties over Eastern Europe and safely landed expeditioners on an ice runway at Casey Station in Antarctica.
    He grew up in the shadow of Dracula’s castle in Transylvania, a distant mountainous region of the former socialist republic of Romania — a country still steeped in obscurity and seemingly frozen in time.
    So how did he end up on the other side of the world as a meteorologist in Brisbane?

    A desire to learn about tropical weather and severe storm forecasting brought Mr Branescu to Australia seven years ago.
    It has been a long journey to sub-tropical Queensland, but he is about to experience his first summer in the Sunshine State ***and the extreme weather that goes with it…

    Three months ago, the chance to forecast Queensland’s severe storms lured him to Brisbane.
    “This is the next chapter in my life, forecasting severe storms, super cells and hail — I’m always looking for weather adventures and challenges,” he said.
    “You don’t need to have grown up in Australia or Queensland to be able to forecast the weather here … the technology, the science and expertise is universal.”…
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-20/draculas-weatherman-transylvania-antarctic-brisbane/10388066

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      Graeme No.3

      pat:
      Does that mean the ABC will be broadcasting warnings about vampires (and blaming it on global warming)?

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        Bill In Oz

        Here in Adelaide at times, we get an Indian weather forecaster later on at night on the ABC..

        I have wondered quite often about his ‘capacity’ to forecast Adelaide weather as he seems to have zero ‘local’ knowledge of the various suburbs and topographies which impact local weather significantly. Another issue is his accent & stress when speaking, which I struggle to understand…

        Simpler to look on the BPM’s own website..

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          Greg in NZ

          Most of our TV/media weather spokes-bots/actors hail from England and Ireland, the majority with speech impediments, ethpethly the ‘male’ ones who flail their arms like limp windmills in a breeze, while NIWA’s pro-cAGW ™climate communicator™ is a recent American import. Local knowledge/history? Meh, who needs that when you’ve got Super Models!

          Did any of your experts predict the overnight snow which fell on Mt Hotham and Falls Creek in Victoria? I saved a few screenshots from this morning as the webcams continually update, plus most of it will be melting soon. Here’s a link: http://www.snowatch.com.au/live-snow-cams/ Bring on a White Christmas! [or is that Festive Day Le Blanc?]

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        pat

        seems so…lol.

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    pat

    19 Oct: Herald Scotland: Agenda: Scotland should beef up its climate change targets
    By Gina Hanrahan, Head of Policy, WWF Scotland
    CLIMATE change is no longer someone else’s problem. Scotland has experienced a year of extremes – from the Beast from the East, to this summer’s heatwave and the challenges it posed for farmers, vulnerable people and wildlife…
    When we talk about half a degree here or there it sounds deeply abstract and inconsequential. But the latest report shows that half a degree really matters, much like it does to the human body, where small shifts can mean the difference between a healthy temperature and a life-threatening fever…

    Some of the biggest brands in the world – household names like ***Sky, Tesco, Coca Cola and Unilever recently came together to call for a net zero emissions target – eliminating our contribution to climate change – by 2050. The Bank of England recently announced that all banks will have to appoint a dedicated climate risk senior executive. And just this week, ScottishPower announced it was getting out of fossil fuel generation – further evidence the clean energy transition is accelerating.

    So where does this leave Scotland? With a new Climate Change Bill before Parliament, Scotland now has an opportunity to reassert its leadership in the climate change arena. However, in its current form the bill does not go far enough…

    Scotland should aim to eliminate its contribution to climate change entirely by 2050 by going for greenhouse gas neutrality. This isn’t just about the energy system but also enabling change in the land use and farming sectors. We will still have some emissions from food production and industry but they can be balanced with emissions soaked up from the atmosphere by trees, peatlands and other options…
    https://www.heraldscotland.com/opinion/16993711.agenda-scotland-should-beef-up-its-climate-change-targets/

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    pat

    18 Oct: BusinessGreen: District heating plans warm up as £320m funding drive moves forward
    by Michael Holder
    Plans confirmed that aim to leverage up to £1bn investment in low carbon heat networks across the UK
    A new £320m funding drive aimed at boosting low carbon sources of heating for homes and businesses has been officially launched by the government this week in a bid to stimulate private investment in expanding the number of heat networks in towns and cities across the UK

    The launch of the Heat Networks Investment Project (HNIP) was announced on Tuesday as part of Green GB Week, bringing together £320m of government loans and grants and additional investment from a host of energy companies, including Engie, E.ON, Vattenfall, SSE, and Metropolitan.

    The aim is to leverage up to £1bn of private and ***institutional investment in accelerating the design and construction of low carbon heat networks in a bid to cut emissions from what is widely seen as a hard-to-decarbonise sector of the economy…

    Triple Point said projects would need to demonstrate long-term sustainable market returns in order to attract additional institutional and private investment. In the long term it estimates the full private investment potential of the low carbon heating market could reach between £16.5bn and £22bn by 2030.
    Consultants and legal services specialists supporting the project also include AECOM, Amberside Advisers, LuxNova Partners, BDO, Ecuity and GemServ…

    Ken Hunnisett, project director at Triple Point Heat Networks Investment Management, welcomed the “hugely important” new initiative…

    But the move comes as fresh concerns have been raised over the government’s wider green heat strategy. Firms have this week warned about the potential impact of proposed “knee-jerk” changes to the Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) scheme, which were set out by the government in a consultation document released yesterday.

    The proposed RHI changes seek to exclude further support for biomass installations in urban areas on the gas grid in a move designed to reduce the air pollution impact of such boilers, which can produce smoke particles, benzene, formaldehyde and other harmful hydrocarbons.
    “Although biomass boilers are significantly cleaner than burning solid fuel on open fires or in stoves, they still produce much higher levels of particulate matter than gas- or oil-fired alternatives,” the consultation document states.
    However, the Wood Heat Association – which is part of the Renewable Energy Association trade body – said the proposals could stop the installation of highly efficient and clean biomass boiler technologies in urban areas…

    The move also comes as host of retailers confirmed they are backing the government-backed ‘Ready to Burn’ initiative, which aims to incentivise customers to switch to clean and smokeless wood fuels that can significantly reduce air pollutants.
    Over 50 companies, including Tesco, Sainsbury’s, B&Q, and Wickes, are now supporting the initiative and are seeking to label and promote the cleanest fuels.

    The support for district heating and cleaner biomass fuels has been welcomed across the industry, but concerns are widepread that decarbonising heat remains one of the biggest challenges faced by the government’s Clean Growth Strategy.

    As Energy and Clean Growth Minister Claire Perry told delegates at the BusinessGreen Leaders Summit this week, she is not willing to pursue more demanding measures to drive the switch from gas boilers to cleaner alternatives until somone can explain how such a large scale national programme can be funded. The hope is that the accelerated roll out of district heating technologies could one day play a key role in providing that explanation.
    https://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news-analysis/3064753/government-announces-gbp320m-low-carbon-heat-networks-scheme

    YouGov for Climate Action? that’s a poll you can believe in:

    19 Oct: EnergyVoice: Little public support for UK Government axing of solar tariff
    by David McPhee
    The UK Government’s proposal to axe the solar export tariff has met been with little public support, according to a YouGov poll.
    The data survey, carried out by YouGov for Climate Action, found that a clear majority were in favour of continuing the solar export tariff rather than abolish it…
    https://www.energyvoice.com/otherenergy/184061/little-public-support-for-uk-government-axing-of-solar-tariff/

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    pat

    19 Oct: Daily Caller: The Biggest US Oil Field Increases Its Output, Still Lowers Its Methane Emissions
    by Jason Hopkins
    The Permian Basin, the most productive shale oil formation in the U.S., has dramatically increased its oil and gas output in the past year. Production in the west Texas shale oil play rose from 1.9 million barrels per day in January 2016 to 2.8 million barrels per day by December 2017, according (LINK) to the Energy Information Administration.

    Natural gas also experience substantial growth, with production increasing from 6.5 billion cubic feet per day to 9.3 billion cubic feet per day. Analysts predict (LINK) the region will keep producing at a higher rate.

    At the same time, methane emissions saw a dramatic decrease. Oil and gas developers working in the Permian Basin saw their emissions drop by 100,000 metric tons of CO2 equivalent from 2016 to 2017, according to data (LINK) provided by the Environmental Protection Agency…READ ON
    https://dailycaller.com/2018/10/19/permian-basin-production-texas/

    18 Oct: Daily Caller: Democratic Candidate Criticizes Agriculture Industry, Suggests Workers Transition To Renewable Energy Instead
    by Jason Hopkins
    The Democratic nominee in Georgia’s gubernatorial election had to walk back comments that suggested the agriculture and hospitality industries weren’t worth working in.
    The controversy began when Stacey Abrams was giving a speech at Georgia Southern University as part of her “We Are Georgia” bus tour.
    “I want to create a lot of different jobs because people shouldn’t have to go into agriculture or hospitality to make a living in Georgia. Why not create renewable energy jobs because — I’m going to tell ya’ll a secret — climate change is real,” Abrams said Tuesday at the campaign rally.

    Throughout the campaign, Abrams has been a big proponent of solar and wind energy, and has made fighting climate change a part of her campaign platform. The Democratic candidate went on to claim in her Tuesday speech that the state could create 25,000 to 45,000 “good paying” jobs if renewable energy industry is recognized as “not only the future,” but also as “the now.”

    The insinuation that agriculture wasn’t worth working in drew backlash from her critics. Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp, who is the Republican nominee in the election, suggested her comments were “hurtful” and an indication that she was spending too much time with her “socialist backers in San Francisco.”
    Political pundits believe an insult against agriculture — which is the biggest industry in the Peach State — could badly hurt Abrams’ prospects in rural communities…
    Abrams has since walked back her comments, stating that she wants to diversify the state’s economy and raise wages across the board, calling agriculture a vital sector of the economy. Her campaign on Thursday flipped the issue back on Kemp, calling his attacks “assuredly misleading.”…

    This isn’t the first time the Georgia Democrat has made eyebrow-raising comments while on the campaign trail. Abrams said on Oct. 9 that the Democratic “blue wave” would be made up of documented and undocumented people, a sentence that suggests illegal aliens would be voting on Election Day.
    Abrams said Sunday on “Meet the Press” that areas such as Albany, southwest Georgia and “Glasgow County” have been hit hard by Hurricane Michael. However, there is no Glasgow County in the state of Georgia.
    https://amp.dailycaller.com/2018/10/18/stacey-abrams-insults-agriculture-workers?__twitter_impression=true

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    PeterPetrum

    Gee, I looked at the first graph (after reading the headline, but not the article) saw the TV and assumed that the ABC had killed off its audience, at last!!

    Sorry, Jo!

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    pat

    GetUp/CAGW zealots’ climate heroes – Al Gore, James Hansen, Bill McKibben, Michael Bloomberg, Tom Steyer, Michael Mann…and Jeffrey Sachs below. not exactly a diverse/inclusive bunch!

    18 Oct: CNN: Trump’s failure to fight climate change is a crime against humanity
    by Jeffrey Sachs
    (Editor’s Note: Jeffrey Sachs is a professor and director of the Center for Sustainable Development at Columbia University. The opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author)
    President Donald Trump, Florida Gov. Rick Scott, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, and others who oppose action to address human-induced climate change should be held accountable for climate crimes against humanity. They are the authors and agents of systematic policies that deny basic human rights to their own citizens and people around the world, including the rights to life, health, and property. These politicians have blood on their hands, and the death toll continues to rise.

    Trump remains in willful denial of the thousands of deaths caused by his government’s inept, under-funded, and under-motivated response to Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico last year…
    As the Earth warms due to the continued burning of coal, oil, and gas, climate-related disasters that include high-intensity hurricanes, floods, droughts, extreme precipitation, forest fires, and heat waves, pose rising dangers to life and property. Hurricanes become more destructive as warmer ocean waters feed more energy to the storms. Warmer air also carries more moisture for devastating rainfalls, while rising sea levels lead to more flooding…

    Yet Trump and his minions are the loyal servants of the fossil-fuel industry, which fill Republican party campaign coffers. Trump has also stalled the fight against climate change by pulling out of the Paris Agreement. The politicians thereby deprive the people of their lives and property out of profound cynicism, greed, and willful scientific ignorance…

    Real protection requires climate action on several fronts: educating the public about the growing dire risks of human-induced climate change; enacting legislation and regulations to ensure that families and businesses are kept out of harm’s way, for example by stopping construction in flood plains, and investing in sustainable infrastructure to counteract rising sea levels; anticipating the rising frequency of high-intensity climate-related disasters through science-based preparedness following through on properly scaled disaster-response during and after storm events; and most importantly for the future, spearheading the rapid transition to zero-carbon energy to prevent much greater calamities in the years ahead.

    This straightforward to-do list is the opposite of what Trump and his cronies are doing. Trump blithely disregards scientific findings about climate change and thereby exposes the nation to unprecedented risks…

    Trump’s mishandling of last year’s Puerto Rico disaster in the wake of Hurricane Maria is grounds itself for impeachment and trial…

    Professor James Hansen, one of the world’s leading climatologists, has demonstrated that the Earth’s climate has moved above the temperature range that supported the entire 10,000 years of civilization. The risks of catastrophic sea level rise are upon us. A group of world-leading ecologists recently highlighted that critical Earth systems could spiral out of control.

    The Nobel-prize winning Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change has also just released a harrowing report showing that the world has just a few years left to move decisively towards renewable energy if it hopes to achieve the globally agreed target to limit warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average temperature of the planet…
    The American people are paying a heavy cost for the cynicism and cruelty of politicians in the pocket of the fossil-fuel industry. It is time to hold these reckless politicians to account.
    https://edition.cnn.com/2018/10/18/opinions/trumps-failure-to-fight-climate-change-sachs/index.html

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    • #
      Bill In Oz

      That’s an awful lot of arguing from authority Pat….And I suggest you are operating on ‘faith’ in those authorities you cite..And you would all of us here ‘believe’ as you do.

      Frankly that will NOT do Pat.

      What if the authorities are simply wrong or even partially wrong?

      Science operates on the principal that a assertion like the “Planet is warming” has to be proved (= tested ) by discovering all the facts & evidence and seeing if they support the proposition.

      By the way Trump who is your ‘bete noir’ is president of the USA federal government…Puerto Rico is a self governing Island Commonwealth associated with the USA but not a state of the USA…It is thus responsible for it’s own disaster management.

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        robert rosicka

        Bill I think you’ve confused what Pat has posted , it’s from CNN and is a typical Trump bashing article .
        Can’t vouch for Pat but your wrong if he thinks Trump is a bad thing for America .

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    Phillthegeek

    Polls closed in Wentworth. Lib / Nat blood about to flow……well…..keep flowing more than it has been lately… :)

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      PeterS

      If the Libs loses Wentworth as to be expected in a smashing defeat it proves we have an electorate who hates conservative politics and prefers left wingers who believe in CAGW very strongly. I say to Morrison give it all you got, do not give in an inch and call a spade a spade. If that attitude in Wentworth still extends to much of the nation at the next federal election, then we deserve Shorten as PM to see how bad things can get under a left winger, coupled with the extreme left wing Greens. Turnbull of course is the architect of all this. If he hasn’t already he should be sacked from the Liberal Party along with all his close mates. It’s no time for appeasement. We need a Churchill not a Chamberlain to save this nation from the crash and burn scenario. So Morrison better change tune after the likely massive loss in Wentworth and rebuke all left wing CAGW defenders in the ALP, Greens and LNP as though they are terrorists. Anything less is being like Chamberlain. Get on with it Morrison. Time to get real or else don’t waste your time and our time and call an election now to get it over and done with so we can have a taste of Shorten.

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      Phillthegeek

      Funnily enough have hear that there was a bit of a gathering of brave like minded who dragged down Malcolm Turnbull in Sydney tonight, hosted by none other than out Tones. :) Apparently a bit of planning for post Wentworth. Anyone making odds on how long Sco daH Mo lasts??

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    Phillthegeek

    First “exit polling” :) This kind of stuff is pretty unreliable, but does seem to gell with the larger sample stuff done in the lead up.

    “With the appropriate cautions for exit polling (“from raw unweighted data and should be considered as indicative only”), the Australia Institute has released the following interim results of an exit poll of 875 respondents. This is directly from its report:

    Kerryn Phelps has a strong primary vote and has attracted many former Liberal voters, as well people who had voted for Labor and the Greens in 2016

    Liberal vote has dropped significantly and preferences are flowing strongly to Phelps from ALP and Green voters

    Climate change and replacing coal with renewable energy is the biggest single issue motivating voters in Wentworth – 78% of voters say it had at least some influence on their vote. Half (47%) said it had a lot of influence on their vote and 33% name it as the most important issue.

    Climate and coal was more important than any other issue to Phelps voters, with 39% of them saying it was their primary concern.

    Among ex-Liberal voters who have now voted for Phelps, climate change was the second-biggest issue (27%) behind Turnbull’s toppling (44%), but 80% of those voters said climate change and getting out of coal had at least some influence on how they voted.

    Remember we have yet to see the raw numbers all up. Just putting it out there.”

    :)

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    Phillthegeek

    Ok…Can someone fill me in on what the f sets of the robo defenders of the faith on those last couple of comments??

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      robert rosicka

      Why certainly Phil , you see it’s like this ,a piece of string and an onion a couple of small stones and a blackbird and a glass coffee cup but don’t confuse that with the other thing that sometimes never but occasionally will conflate the existential existence of the fore mentioned colour that’s not quite beige and too brisk to be red.

      I hope that’s an intelligent enough answer for your “owner operator ” style question .

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      • #
        Phillthegeek

        I hope that’s an intelligent enough answer for your “owner operator ” style question .

        About the level of coherency i’d expect here. :)

        Oh…..Libs seem to have misplaced a seat called Wentworth. How careless of them. :)

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        Phillthegeek

        Sorry robert, did reply but guess what? If went to moderation.

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    It would be worth understanding how the heat death rate in the 2000s was nearly ten times that of the 1990s. I suspect that it is almost entirely down on the reporting method.

    Another example is the EM-DAT database which lists global disasters from 1900. Take the number of droughts, floods, wildfires and extreme temperature events and they appear to have increased massively since the 1950s. That is 10 times more, or greater. That is purely down to the fact that in the 1980s international standards were set, which most countries have adopted, for reporting disasters of all types, including earthquakes and disease outbreaks. Even so, The global number of deaths from disasters has generally being falling, and from climate-related disasters per capita by maybe 95% from the database information. That is due to the mega events in the early twentieth century getting reported, but the smaller ones only being reported for most of the world after the 1990s.
    https://manicbeancounter.com/2018/09/12/increasing-extreme-weather-events/

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    theRealUniverse

    More discredited bunkum
    https://realclimatescience.com/2018/10/missed-it-by-that-much-3/
    “On September 26, 1988, experts predicted the 1,196 islands of the Maldives would drown in the next thirty years. That date has passed, and they only missed by 1,196 islands.”

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    pat

    Wentworth would probably have a big majority who read Fairfax/Guardian and are Friends of the ABC!

    20 Oct: AFR: Kerryn Phelps elected, Liberals punished in Wentworth bloodbath
    by Phillip Coorey
    Mr Turnbull’s son Alex, who had urged voters to snub the Liberals, tweeted his delight at the result…
    The rout is likely to embolden Liberal moderates to advocate harder for a more progressive agenda given climate change was the biggest concern cited by voters, according to anecdotal evidence.
    “It was one of the biggest issues, if not the biggest issue,” said NSW Liberal councillor Christine Forster.
    NSW Liberal MP Trent Zimmerman said the climate change backlash was exacerbated by conservative Liberals using the National Energy Guarantee, which had a climate change component, as the trigger to dump Mr Turnbull…
    Hewson led the Liberal party from 1990 to 1994 and has been scathing of the party’s failure to address climate change…
    https://www.afr.com/news/politics/kerryn-phelps-elected-liberals-punished-in-wentworth-bloodbath-20181020-h16wbd

    10 Oct: Guardian: Wentworth byelection: John Hewson urges Liberal ‘drubbing’ over climate change
    Former leader says it might take losing the seat to get the party to do something on climate
    by Anne Davies
    The former Liberal leader John Hewson has called on voters in his former seat of Wentworth to use the byelection as a referendum on climate change and vote against the Liberals…

    Hewson will join the Adani campaigner and former businessman Geoff Cousins and a coral expert, professor Terry Hughes, at a climate change forum in Bondi on Wednesday night as green groups warn that Wentworth would be markedly hotter and 9% drier by 2050.
    According to modelling produced for environmental groups campaigning to make climate change the central issue in the byelection, Wentworth faces a future where winter resembles summer temperatures and summer becomes even more extreme.
    The modelling, which will be used in a social media campaign, is done by the Australian National University using data from the Queensland Department of Environment and Science’s Long Paddock project, which is used to predict climate change impacts in regions and cities.
    It was commissioned by the Australian Conservation Foundation and is one of a series to be used in the next federal election.

    The “climate coasters” – visual representations of how the climate will change in key electorates – show the seasonal temperatures now and how they will change by 2050 under the IPCC’s high emissions scenario. This assumes that greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow at the current rate and do not moderate before 2050.

    The modelling for Wentworth shows that by 2050 the average daily maximum temperatures will be 3C hotter than the historic average (compared to 1960-1990 baseline); there will be twice as many days over 30C; and there will be an average of eight days above 35C.

    “If we allow runaway climate pollution to continue, Wentworth would keep getting hotter and drier,” the ACF climate change and clean energy program manager, Gavan McFadzean, said.
    “Summer conditions would take over much of the year and more frequent extreme temperatures would put increased pressure on the health of its more vulnerable residents,” he said…
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/10/wentworth-byelection-john-hewson-urges-liberal-drubbing-over-climate-change

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    Gordon

    Heat rises cold goes down. Australia is at the bottom of the globe, the cold from Canada drops down, the Heat from Australia comes up to Canada. Some of you freeze to death we get some summer months.How is that for climate science.

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