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Last winter 9,000 more British pensioners died than usual — how many were due to high heating costs?

Higher electricity costs mean more people turn off their heaters

There’s a big freeze coming to Britain with minus 12C temperatures possible in the next three weeks.

Last year in winter in England there was a remarkable 40% rise in winter deaths

David Archibald emails that last year was a mild winter for Brits, but the death toll rose from the normal 25,000 excess to 34,000 people. Remembering that it’s moderate cold that kills far more people than extreme temperatures. The UK government advises rooms be heated to at least 18C. (I’ve been in a Canberra house where the temperature fell to 11C indoors, and that was in May.) Despite all the newspaper headlines about outside temperatures, the big killer is indoors.

Indoor temperature matters, graph, deaths, moderate cold, extreme heat, lancet.

The big killer is indoor temperature and moderately cold, not extremes.

Campaigners demand urgent cuts to power bill after number of winter deaths among the elderly rise by 40%

Pensioner groups are demanding urgent measures to cut the cost of heat and light after official figures revealed a surge in deaths last winter. There were some 34,300 so-called ‘excess’ deaths during the cold months, according to new figures from the Office of National Statistics (ONS). The figure equates to 11 pensioners dying every hour and represents a rise of 39.5 per cent – 9,720 – on the year before.

The excess deaths largely came from English regions. Statistics in Wales were stable. It’s partly due to the strain of flu virus, but colder room temperatures are a known risk factor.

Research suggests that further increases in dual-fuel tariffs in the past year means people are increasingly worried about putting the heating on.

National Pensioners Convention (NPC) general secretary Jan Short says governments have been ignoring the excess winter deaths and the cost of heating:

“‘Almost one in three older people live in homes with inadequate heating or insulation making their homes more difficult to heat or keep warm.

Research by the price comparison website, Energyhelpine, claims that UK families are now paying the highest energy prices in history – 33per cent higher than six years ago.

Age UK’s Charity Director, Caroline Abrahams,  claims that 250,000 older people have died from the cold over the last 10 years – and 2.5milllion over the past 60 years.

Influenza virus transmission is higher at colder temperatures and with lower humidity.

From Lancet, cold ambient temperatures increase both cardiovascular deaths and infectious deaths. Colder temperatures cause blood to thicken, blood pressure to rise and sinflammatory responses:

The biological processes that underlie cold-related mortality mainly have cardio vascular and respiratory effects. Exposure to cold has been associated with cardiovascular stress by affecting factors such as blood pressure and plasma fibrinogen, vasoconstriction and blood viscosity, and inflammatory responses. Similarly, cold induces bronchoconstriction and suppresses mucociliary defences and other immunological reactions, resulting in local inflammation and increased risk of respiratory infections. These physiological responses can persist for longer than those attributed to heat, and seem to produce mortality risks that follow a smooth, close-to-linear response, with most of the attributable risk occurring in moderately cold days.

h/t Pat too

REFERENCE

Antonio Gasparrini et al.  (2015) Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature: a multicountry observational study. The Lancet, May 2015 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)62114-0Full PDF.

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82 comments to Last winter 9,000 more British pensioners died than usual — how many were due to high heating costs?

  • #
    Mall

    People who can afford to generally will move from cold climates to warmer ones. Cold weather kills.

    70

    • #
      el gordo

      Baby boomer empty nesting is a first world problem, Australia encourages Brit grey nomads to come south and pick fruit.

      30

    • #
      Roger

      Good point Mall, they are probably the only genuine’Climate Refugees’ – or in the case of the UK and spiralling energy costs perhaps more accurately they are ‘Political Refugees’ fleeing from political policies to decarbonise and de-industrialise …… but then again perhaps the most apt description is “Renewables Refugees”.

      90

  • #
    robert rosicka

    Exactly mall , going to be hard to build any electrical generation devices when we are covered in snow and ice .

    41

  • #
    Peter C

    This post reminded me of a story that I read years ago.

    The Little Match Girl.
    http://www.online-literature.com/hans_christian_andersen/981/

    People who would deny any one, especially the poor from affordable heating and light are despicable beyond comprehension.

    110

  • #
    Carbon500

    As a UK resident, I’ve noticed that a lot of public places such as supermarkets and pubs either don’t switch their heating on, or they turn on the air conditioning (air con) which chills the place very efficiently.
    The air con salesmen have been busy. Over the last few years, these systems have been fitted in a lot of places. Why anyone in the British Isles would want air con is beyond me to understand – we get very few really hot days in the year. An open window is enough, and this brings in fresh air, too! There are a couple of restaurants I no longer go to because it’s unpleasantly chilly.
    The county of Derbyshire lies in the middle of England, and a neighbour tells me that there was snow on the ground when he went on a trip there a week or so ago.
    Climate change? In the UK? You must be joking – and I’m now 69 years old, and a resident for all of those years.

    120

    • #
      ROM

      Ah! The usual British realism appears once again!

      Turning the A/C’s on when the temps are already in the low teens [ C ] is a rather obvious method of forcing the British and Scottish population to adapt to the new oncoming Global Cooling / Cold Climate periods of some decades duration that is now predicted by the Russians, numerous western climate scientists as well as Japanese and Chinese scientists.

      The Brits are getting in first when it comes to ensuring their populations are fully adapted to the new Cooling Climate / Cold Climate regime that Europe is facing over the next three or four decades as the North Atlantic continues to cool and fast with the switch in the decades long North Atlantic Oscillation.

      :-)

      Don’t tell the University of East Anglia’s Climate Research Unit or Phil Jones as he might not have the information ready on Global Cooling that he won’t be prepared to share with anybody as they will only try to find fault with it.

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      • #
        Roger

        Both Russian and Chinese scientists believe in the cyclical nature of climate based upon many, many centuries of record keeping. It is only Western scientists who have been sucked into the politicisation of CO2 and Maurice Strong’s fanatical design of the IPCC to de-industrialise civilisation.

        111

        • #
          toorightmate

          Agree.
          I read as many of the technical papers from China and Russia as I can.
          The scientific approach they use is vastly superior to what has become a poor general standard for the west.
          They also strictly stay with the topic and stay away from emotions and politicising the topics.
          Has the standard of technical report writing been purposely changed in the west to include the horsesh*t rather than the facts?

          100

      • #
        ROM

        More seriously!

        The term “Global Warming” was abandoned by the green and politically left Elites when it became clear that nobody could detect anything different to the usual when it came to temperatures.
        The term” Global Warming” was also too determinate and specific, hence the term the indefinable, amorphous, could mean anything, meaningless word construct of “Climate change” was substituted for “Global warming”.

        At this stage I personally am getting fed up to the back teeth with the constant jarring , non stop repetition of the term “Climate change” often completely out of context that is introduced into every article, opinion piece, supposed science based publications and the usual political pap and crap in the media everywhere.

        And I suspect if thats how I’m feeling about that now jarring and meaningless term, “Climate Change” and what it supposedly implies then a similar attitude to the claimed Climate Change meme might now be beginning to take hold quite quickly across a lot of the rest of the various national communities as well as we are now beginning to see in Germany, Spain, the UK and some parts of North America, italy and many other nations where good common sense along with billions of other peoples hard earned wealth has been blown by stupid arrogant virtue signalling governments on completely meaningless and never will be practicable ,Renewable Energy projects of wind and solar and an infinite number of utterly useless green projects of little or no value to society whatsoever.

        Russia and China and India of course never seriously believed in the western green left’s supposedly science supported Elites ‘s construct of “Climate Change” but played along to take political advantage of the incompetent West’s political practioners and their concentration on the purported deadly and catastrophic “Climate Change” which might / could be manipulated to brinr political and economic advantages.

        Right from the 1995 Madrid Conference [ Madrid 1995: The Last Day of Climate Science (Part II); Also see WUWT ] from when a young Ben Santer got the job of writing up the report of that conference and changed the Madrid Conference’s agreed wording from a vague and quite indefinite statement meant to try and satisfy the wide range of opinions being expressed at the Madrid conference summed up as “The balance of evidence points towards a human influence.”to a far more definitive statement “‘Nevertheless the balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernible human influence on global climate.”’ that set the scene for the abject display of political incompetence that was the Kyoto Conference and set in stone the whole Global Warming / Climate Change debacle that is leading to the destruction of trust in science, politics and the media by society and in the entire political process.

        It now appears that this change was done under pressure from the USA’s State Department whilst Bill Clinton was President.

        A few years ago I had a debate at one of Horsham’s schools on global warming.
        The opposition was a proffessor from Monash I think [ names gone from the memory banks ] who claimed that when he was head of the East Anglia’s CRU, [ he wasn't but was head of some lower status climate science body as it turned out when I checked later ] he convinced Al Gore, Clinton’s Vice president of the very serious dangers Global Warming held for the planet.

        This bit of information included with Bernie Lewin’s history of the Madrid Conference in 1995 just about ties up where the links with the USA State Department and the pressures applied through the State Department on the Madrid Conference recorders to change and alter the vital and definitive text , admitted by Ben Santer in an inteview, from the Mardrid Conference, arguably could well have come [ I could be more definite!! ] from a highly corrupt Clinton administration which had an even more corrupt Vice President who could see the wealth to be gained by doing some manipulation of various science bodies to get himself a very nice pile after he left the Vice Presidency.

        The whole of this Elitist Climate Change meme has been imposed from the top, there never has been any sort of mass movement in support of the societal changes that would be required to “Fight Climate Change”.
        Its all been promoted by the scientific and despicable Green Left watermelon Goat cheese Circle inner city Elite plus the political, media and business Elities of Society, never by the proletarian masses further down the societal status ladder.

        And that I believe is a vital point in this whole debacle and it is also the very vulnerable point for the Elites where, as the proletarian masses begin to wake up [ as power prices keep rising, blackout keep occurring, and socetial expectations are destroyed or rendered useless and incompetence by the elites employed in so many governemnt ordained fields continues to increase will possibly itself destroy most of what those Elites believe is their god given right to have and nobody else has a right to refuse them.

        The Elitist politicians and political parties and the Elities as exemplified by “their” ABC and the Green Left watermelon Goat cheese circle dwellers have sold their very souls and their very few principles that they had left along with their fellow man and woman down the river in an increasingly deadly and an ultimately and completely futile display of Virtue Signalling about their beliefs, born of gross ignorance of real observed science, in Catastrophic Climate Change.

        And we and all of society but most of all those right at the bottom of our society status levels are paying a very high price indeed for the elites arrogance , stupidity and condescension on an unparalleled scale .

        231

    • #
      Annie

      Actually Carbon500, in the summer of 2003 I was unbearably overheated in the kitchen of the house we were in in Gloucestershire. It had two large windows facing east and south and the south one was over a large paved area. We had decided to ship a nearly new AC unit back with us from Aus and I was very grateful that my husband fitted it into the east-facing window. Despite double-glazing the heat gain from the sun was incredible there. Double glazing is nothing like as insulating as good brickwork, as we find with our present house in Aus. The outer glass has that ‘e coating’ finish too.

      60

      • #
        Carbon500

        Fair comment Annie, but I’ve never felt the need for air con myself. I suppose it depends on the house design. Our kitchen and main living areas face squarely South, but open doors and windows usually cool things down enough for us.
        I think we Brits are so deprived of warmth we welcome any heat! It’s a shame we can’t bottle some of it up for winter.
        Something I forgot to mention.
        Our government does help the ‘oldies’ with winter fuel payments. Earlier this month, my wife and I each received a cheque for £100 to help with the bills – it’s much appreciated!

        30

        • #
          toorightmate

          Carbon500,
          Have a crack at living in Paraburdoo on a 50 deg day.
          Then you might just appreciate a drop of air conditioning – regardless of which way your house is situated..

          40

          • #
            Carbon500

            Tooright mate – yes, point taken, but then again, come to the UK. It’s cold outside, say 4 degrees C, you’re chilled to the bone, maybe it’s snowing, you go inside hoping to warm up – only to be refrigerated because someone in charge of the thermostat has it turned down.
            Picture this scene: in an office, a roomful of people are huddled in scarves and jackets at their desks, while the person in charge is quite content in a T-shirt – and won’t turn up the thermostat.
            I’ve seen this happen!

            20

        • #
          Annie

          My husband isn’t bothered by heat Carbon500 but I certainly am, especially when it’s humid and I’m trying to cook! At 0900 I have just finished watering outside and I’m melting and my reading glasses are steamed up :( It’s probably something to do with individual physiology as I loathe the bitter cold too and there was certainly plenty of that in recent winters (and 1950s/1960s too).

          30

        • #
          Annie

          I would agree with your earlier comment re. too much AC in shops and pubs and so on. For a long time I’ve whinged about over-cooling in summer and over-heating in winter. On top of that they leave doors wide open…how stupid is that?
          That doesn’t address the inability of the young, old and sick to afford adequate heating or cooling at the same time as eating properly. For a ‘civilised’ country to meddle with the power supply to the gross suffering of its most vulnerable citizens is, not to put too fine a point on it, evil.

          30

  • #
    Carbon500

    Thanks for the ‘Lancet’ article reference Jo – much appreciated!

    50

    • #
      David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

      Agree.
      And the article makes the statement “I don’t like the cold” sound like a shorthand for great science.
      Cheers,
      Dave B

      20

  • #
    Phoenix44

    And it wasn’t a particularly cold winter last year, either in terms of the cold or the duration.

    The graph shows that there is some nonsense in the article though – “extreme cold” in Brazil and Thailand?

    30

    • #
      el gordo

      Cold air outbreaks (CAO) in Brazil and Thailand are real, and is probably related to blocking highs. This northern hemisphere winter will be cooler than average.

      ‘Strengthening ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies across Greenland (often referred to as Greenland blocking) will force troughing/negative geopotential heights across Europe accompanied by cold temperatures for the next two weeks and possibly beyond.

      ‘Similarly, strengthening ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies centered on the Urals (often referred to as Ural blocking) will force troughing/negative geopotential heights across East Asia accompanied by cold temperatures for the next two weeks and possibly beyond.’

      Judah Cohen (AER)

      40

  • #

    Add energy poverty to the winter of 1708-9 and watch the deaths. Can’t happen again?

    For the New Man at Year Zero there is no history. But the New Man can freeze like any man. Year Zero can be as cold as 1708-9, even if you think history never happened.

    But there is no New Man and history did happen. The world has been both colder and warmer, not just in some remote geological period (distraction), but over the last thousand years (salient fact).

    So look out, England. And good luck.

    81

    • #
      Roger

      During the Little Ice Age contemporary written records show ice which was regularly 5ft thick on the river Thames in London when they held Ice Fairs and Queen Elizabeth 1st’ court diaries record horse-drawn carriages regularly crossing the Thames and her retinue playing games on the ice. Also recorded are ships held in sea ice as much as two miles off the English coast in the North sea.

      During the Roman warm period it was hot enough for grapes to be cultivated throughout England and Wales and as far north as Hadrian’s wall. It wasn’t until the 1930′s that the UK was warm enough for grapes to be grown in the furthest south of England. Over the last 90 years, as the climate has been slowly recovering from the Little Ice Age it is now warm enough for them to be grown in the Midlands – but nowhere near warm enough yet for them to survive near Hadrian’s wall.

      This is a fascinating compilation covering the period of the Little Ice Age from contemporary records :- “long-slow-thaw-supplementary-information.pdf”, published on Judith Curry’s website.
      https://curryja.files.wordpress.com/2011/12/long-slow-thaw-supplementary-information.pdf

      141

      • #
        John,UK

        Actually the vineyards have reached West Yorkshire and on a northerly-facing hillside too, got a bottle from Holmfirth tucked away for Xmas! Will be interesting to see if they survive a tough winter, I built an igloo in the back garden for the kids every winter from ’80 to ’85 when I lived up there.

        50

      • #
        Roger

        I see that a dedicated warmist red-thumber doesn’t like facts about past temperatures ….. that’s their biggest problem, the Global Warming Climate Change scare doesn’t stand up to scientific facts (as opposed to fanatsy models), and they just hate it !

        None so fanatical as those who find their religious belief in climate change being exposed as worthless and without any substance ….. except of course those with their mouths in the Climate Change trough as ‘scientists’ or global profiteers.

        81

        • #
          Carbon500

          No arguments, points of view or figures from the red thumber(s).
          Hardly surprising, really.

          61

        • #
          el gordo

          The scientific fact is that the system is cyclic and not linear, here we see the Thames in 1894.

          https://i2.wp.com/friendsofastonseyot.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Thames-Frozen-over-1894-1024×696.jpg

          80

          • #
            Roger

            El Gordo,
            Great picture, any idea where it was taken ? I’ve lived and farmed not far from the Thames close to Windsor for 35 years and know it reasonably well but can’t work out where this was taken.

            In the bitterly cold winter of 1962/63 we actually had slushy sea ice forming on the beach at Watergate Bay on the north coast of Cornwall, 30 foot icicles hanging from the cliffs and I couldn’t get to school in Newquay for a couple of days because of the snow.

            Cornwall rarely even sees a frost let alone snow and sub-zero temperatures lasting for days.

            Climate and weather are cyclical – not controlled by mankind in any way.

            20

        • #
          Rereke Whakaaro

          The problem, Roger, is that the radical conservationists, who will believe any article that purports to be against everything more technical than a hand whisk, will always believe whatever they are told by those they hold in esteem, such as the venerated James Hansen, and Saint Gavin of Schmitt.

          They vent their angst, on what they see as the unbelievers, by coming to Jo’s site, and hitting the red thumb, as hard, and as often, as they can. They rarely make a comment, and even more rarely, make a cogent one.

          From what I have heard, Jo has an army of moderators who do nothing else but mend, and straighten out, the red thumb thingie’s.

          31

          • #
            Bobl

            Sorry they are against hand whisks too since the steel contains evil carbon or if it’s plastic, oil.

            Mind you they don’t seem to mind wearing plastic clothes.

            00

  • #
    • #
      Graeme#4

      The SA govt have now decided to buy the diesel backup generators, not just lease them, for around $111 million, when it only would have cost them around $8m annually to keep the northern coal power station going.

      80

      • #
        robert rosicka

        Thats a good business decision for Labor and par for the way they govern , wreck and spend then tax to cover it .

        31

  • #
    robert rosicka

    OT but are ABC trying to paint the one nation candidate in a certain way here is it just me .

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-28/one-nation-stephen-andrew-new-queensland-mp/9202834

    30

    • #
      Peter C

      The Pig Hunting Weapons Dealer!

      Sounds like a pejorative comment to me.

      50

    • #
      el gordo

      Aunty likes to paint him as a red neck, but he got this right.

      ‘Mr Andrew said the result had a lot to do with the reintroduction of compulsory preferential voting.’

      60

  • #
    pat

    ABC manages to cover the following, with only this reference -

    ***”It’s a struggle to pay the bills, that is why I am still working,” she said…

    to suggest such people can’t afford their electricity bills:

    28 Nov: ABC: ‘Too old to keep going’: Older people at risk of homelessness jumps by 50pc in NSW, data shows
    Lateline By Sarah Farnsworth
    Even before her husband’s death, Mrs Hope said they were struggling to survive in the private rental market and were waiting for priority public housing…

    Unpublished data from the Australian Department of Social Services shows 32,000 homes, where people are aged 65 and above and receiving rent assistance, are paying unaffordable rents in NSW.
    It is a 50 per cent rise in the past five years and includes 9,000 people, 65 and over, who are paying more than half their income on rent.
    The figures are included in the latest Ageing on the Edge Project report, to be submitted to NSW Social Housing Minister Pru Goward this week…

    The report’s co-author, Dr Debbie Faulkner, Housing and Aging research fellow from the University of Adelaide, said the scale of the problem posed a significant challenge.
    “How do we provide better living circumstances for this number of people? Particularly when it’s thought that this situation will only worsen over time,” Dr Faulkner asked…

    Report co-author Jeff Fiedler, from the Housing For the Aged Action Group, said the private rental sector was unsustainable for older people on low incomes…
    “People are talking about not being able to afford basic things like food and medication, which are really critical needs for people’s health.”…

    To pay the rent, Ms Earl, 71, works from 4:00pm until midnight at a deli, and drives a two-hour round trip to work four days a week.
    ***”It’s a struggle to pay the bills, that is why I am still working,” she said…
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-28/older-people-at-risk-of-homelessness-jumps-50pc-in-nsw/9198420

    haven’t got time to search through this website to see if they specifically address electricity bills:

    29 Nov: Ageing on the Edge – National Action Project
    The forum is supported by the Ageing on the Edge NSW Reference Group, a coalition of concerned organisations led by the NSW Federation of Housing Associations and Homelessness NSW. The Ageing on the Edge Homelessness Prevention Project is a partnership between Housing for the Aged Action Group (HAAG) and The University of Adelaide’s Centre for Housing, Urban and Regional Planning (CHURP). The Project is funded by The Wicking Trust…
    Presenters: Ageing on the Edge Project partners Dr Debbie Faulkner, The University of Adelaide and Jeff Fiedler, Housing for the Aged Action Group.
    https://www.oldertenants.org.au/events/ageing-edge-nsw-state-crisis-older-renters

    30

  • #
    pat

    ABC carries this piece from The Conversation, idealising dumpster diving for environmental reasons! choice of interviewees also precludes any discussion about cost of living pressures:

    28 Nov: ABC: Why some people see ‘dumpster diving’ as an ethical way to eat
    The Conversation By Chamila Perera, Swinburne University of Technology
    Over three months I interviewed 21 young environmentalists from Melbourne, exploring how and why they began “dumpster diving”: searching waste bins for food.

    While there are many reasons why someone might choose — or be forced by economic circumstances — to investigate trash, the young people I spoke to cited a range of motivations: to reduce waste; to create a sense of community; and because they did not want to support unsustainable food markets…

    My findings show Melbourne’s young environmentalists regularly visit dumpsters at vegetable markets, supermarkets and bakeries.
    My interviewees were motivated to dumpster dive by a range of factors besides the obvious gain of free food and goods. Framing the deed as economic necessity fails to capture a variety of incentives.
    It’s worth noting the limited demographic I studied means these results cannot be associated with those who dumpster-dive out of genuine need…

    Several participants said they refused to buy from companies with unacceptable environmental credentials…
    Ultimately, the purpose of dumpster diving is to highlight and provide an alternative to the food waste embedded in everyday business models.
    At the end of the day, the way forward is for each of us to consider and reflect on our own habits of consumption.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-28/dumpster-diving-why-some-people-see-it-as-ethical-way-to-eat/9200566

    28 Nov: SA power: Liberals foreshadow inquiry into ‘scandalous’ power plant purchase
    By politics reporter Nick Harmsen
    The Liberal Party has amped up its campaign against the South Australian Government over power — promising to appoint a “special investigator” on day one of any future Marshall Liberal government, to investigate Labor’s early purchase of a power plant.

    Premier Jay Weatherill and Energy Minister Tom Koutsantonis this morning exercised an option to purchase nine aero-derivative turbines, which it currently leases from US company APR Energy.
    They are meant to provide up to 270 megawatts of backup generation should the state face the risk of blackouts over the next two summers.
    The Government plans to take the nine turbines from their temporary diesel configuration at Elizabeth and Lonsdale and connect them at a permanent location, to become a gas-fired backup generator…

    The Government has refused to detail the precise costs of leasing and buying the turbines, declaring the figures are “commercial in confidence”.
    But the Premier said all elements of his $550 million Energy Plan remained within budget…
    Minutes before the contract was signed, deputy Liberal leader Vickie Chapman declared a Liberal government would appoint a “special investigator” to examine the decision to purchase the generators.
    “If the Premier signs that contract today, on day one of a Marshall government we will commence an inquiry into this scandalous behaviour,” Ms Chapman said…
    “To do this in a hurry, to save their own skin on the eve of an election makes it all the more despicable.”…

    The latest fight over the South Australian Government’s generators came as the Australian Energy Market Operator confirmed they might be used to help prevent blackouts in Victoria this Summer.
    AEMO’s summer readiness plan confirms the operator has used emergency powers to procure 1,150 megawatts of back-up generation and demand-side measures to help alleviate the risk of blackouts across the national grid…

    The Energy Minister Tom Koutsantonis has confirmed the State Government will be paid if it is called upon by AEMO to turn its generators on.
    “We will get paid in the RERT system, but not enough to recover costs and we’re not attempting to make profit. We’re just helping with the running costs of the generator,” he said…
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-28/sa-liberals-foreshadow-inquiry-into-power-plant-purchase/9200740

    20

  • #
    tom0mason

    From a press report of the same research

    The most recent study doesn’t project what its findings could mean for the future, particularly with climate change warming much of the globe over the next century.

    “Extrapolating the results of this study for this purpose would only provide speculations not based on evidence,” Gasparrini said. However, he has received a grant from the United Kingdom to study that and hopes “we will answer this question soon,” he said.

    Jam tomorrow, if paid today…

    30

  • #
    observa

    There has been a nasty double flu outbreak in the UK last winter and presumably the same strain that struck here in winter so that could explain a spike in cold deaths as it certainly led to pneumonia in a number of people I know including hospitalisation of babies.

    70

  • #
    Ruairi

    As Arctic conditions enfold,
    Even indoors a little more cold,
    With high energy cost,
    Can leave many lives lost,
    Among those who are poor and are old.

    150

  • #
  • #
    robert rosicka

    And this OT gem about China could lead the world on climate change if only it can wean itself off coal !

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-29/china-beijing-renewable-energy-climate-change-pollution/9191176

    10

    • #
      el gordo

      ‘… its investment in green technology overseas is also the largest in the world.’

      Its the Third Way, first you seize their poles and wires, then the old coal fired plants in need of replacement with a state of the art model.

      That’ll be some way down the track, in the meantime Beijing will just flog renewables to the gullible Aussies.

      10

  • #

    The UK government advises rooms be heated to at least 18C.

    This is quite right. Many of the elderly feel cold at temperatures below around 25C. Meanwhile, earlier this year HRH The Prince of Wales wrote the forward to The Ladybird Book of Climate Change. To illustrate energy solutions it shows a lady turning the thermostat down to 17C. Central heating is a small part of the UK’s energy usage. UK’s Greenhouse gas emissions are less the 1.3% of the global total. But then in modern Britain, it is more important to be seen to be Leading the World on Climate Change than to reduce excess deaths in the elderly and vulnerable.

    110

  • #
    Ian1946

    O/T but an interesting tweet from Cory Bernadi

    The @australian reports that small modular reactors could be coming to meet Australia’s energy needs – a pity then @corybernardi bill (to open up federal laws to the option) was wiped off the @AuSenate agenda this Thursday for #ssm debate #auspol #abetterway

    Can someone who has an account at the Australian have a look at the story. Is it possible that reality could overwhelm the green blob

    50

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    pat

    28 Nov: Breitbart: James Delingpole: Elon Musk Cons South Australia out of $50 million
    Whoever handles Elon Musk’s public relations deserves a medal.
    The slippery snake oil salesman and rent-seeker extraordinaire has been down to South Australia – now reduced, pretty much, to a third world state under its disastrous left-wing administration – and conned the hapless locals out of $50 million to build them an all-but-useless giant battery to make up for the energy they have lost by blowing up their coal-fired power station and relying on wind power instead.

    And how are the lickspittle media reporting this outrageous scam?…READ ON
    http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2017/11/28/elon-musk-cons-south-australia-out-of-50-million/

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      Graeme#4

      They are starting testing the battery soon, but testing against what specs? Since the SA govt has never published the battery specs, how will anybody know that the battery works as intended?

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      • #
        sophocles

        How long after installation before it catches fire?
        1 year?
        2 years?
        3 years?
        4 years?
        5-7 years?
        7-10 years?
        never?

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        • #
          Bobl

          Like all the now disused solar projects we will never be told, 3 years out the battery packs will be stuffed and the maintenance costs will kick in, but of course that’s AFTER the next election. It’ll just sit there while the spiders and cockroaches move in and just decay away until some intrepid reporter notices

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  • #
    pat

    EconomicTimesIndia is attributing this to Reuters, but can’t find any other MSM link for it:

    28 Nov: EconomicTimesIndia: Reuters: EU must not slow down on wind power ambitions -WindEurope
    Targets for renewables in the EU’s 2030 energy mix ought to be raised to at least 35 percent from 27 percent and there should be three-year visibility on the timing, volume and budget of support schemes, it said…

    “Job growth in the industry has flat-lined in the last five years as many countries have become less ambitious on renewables,” WindEurope said in a report prepared with consultancy and auditing firm Deloitte.
    “Half the EU member states invested nothing in wind last year,” said the report, which focused on developments between 2011 and 2016.

    It was presented for discussions on Europe’s Clean Energy Package on decarbonisation targets up to 2030.
    https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/renewable/eu-must-not-slow-down-on-wind-power-ambitions-windeurope/61836074

    28 Nov: Wind Europe: Europe’s €36bn industrial success story: but for how long?
    The European wind industry contributed €36bn to the EU’s GDP in 2016, supports 263,000 jobs and generated €8bn of exports outside of Europe.

    These are the main findings of a new report, ‘Local Impact, Global Leadership’ carried out by Deloitte for WindEurope and published today. The report also outlines what the wind industry saves Europe in terms of reduced fossil fuel imports (€32bn from 2011-2016) and CO2 emissions (166 million tons of CO2 in 2016) and what it contributes to government tax revenues (€4.9bn in 2016)…

    Every €1,000 of turnover generated in the wind industry generates €250 of economic activity in other sectors such as metals, chemicals, electrical equipment and machinery, construction and engineering. Much of the industry and supply chain is located in economically less-advantaged areas. And it brings quality jobs to those areas: 82% of the 263,000 jobs are high-skilled…

    Wind farms also bring direct benefits to the communities where they’re located, whether through local citizens sharing the revenues through community ownership or the operators paying local taxes to the town or district authorities.

    That’s the good news. The less good news is that Europe’s really got its work cut out to maintain this success. Job growth in the industry has flat-lined in the last five years as many countries have become less ambitious on renewables: half the EU Member States invested nothing in wind last year. Net exports of wind equipment are falling in the face of strong competition from emerging economies: down from €3bn in 2011 to €2.4bn today. This is due to European turbine manufacturers sourcing more components from outside Europe. The policy ambition and clarity needed to sustain wind’s contribution to the European economy is currently not in place…

    Wind energy is cheaper than many fossil fuels and it’s time for the EU to review its 2030 renewable energy target and raise it to at least 35 per cent…
    The report was issued today at the WindEurope Conference & Exhibition in Amsterdam.
    https://windeurope.org/newsroom/press-releases/europes-e36bn-industrial-success-story-but-for-how-long/

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    pat

    believable or not?

    28 Nov: CarbonBrief: Guest post: ‘Keeping lights on’ is not just about increasing supply
    by Dr Aidan Rhodes
    (Dr Aidan Rhodes is a research fellow at Imperial College London and is part of the Energy Futures Lab team, working on delivering their Briefing Paper series)

    In recent years, as the large-scale deployment of renewable generation gathers pace and the contribution of conventional power generation (gas, coal and nuclear) to electricity supply dwindles, popular concern over grid stability and reliability has grown substantially.
    It is not uncommon to see stories in the British press every autumn warning of low capacity margins and worrying about “the lights going out” over the winter.

    In South Australia, concerns over high levels of renewables causing grid instability at times of summer peak demand, combined with a couple of large-scale power cuts, have led the state government to propose investing directly in battery storage and a gas-fired power plant…

    We have recently produced a briefing paper (LINK) focusing on whether the UK is facing an upcoming electricity crisis, with the aim of investigating whether the wide levels of concern seen over the past few years are justified.
    We found several interesting findings, directly applicable to the UK, but of interest more widely to those countries facing similar concerns…READ ALL
    https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-keeping-lights-on-not-just-about-increasing-supply

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  • #
    pat

    behind paywall:

    28 Nov: UK Times: Aaron Rogan: Ireland faces €600m fine for missing EU energy targets
    Ireland’s failure to tackle climate change was laid bare yesterday in a report that showed greenhouse gas emissions had risen by 7 per cent since 2015 despite policies aimed at reducing them.
    The country is likely to face multi-million-euro fines for failing to meet EU 2020 targets or will have to spend similar amounts buying credits from member states who overachieve on their targets…

    The increases, ***caused by the growing economy, have undone all the progress made since 2009. The EPA found increases across three main sectors…
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ireland-faces-600m-fine-for-missing-eu-energy-targets-lwrffhqqt

    27 Nov: Irish Times: Kevin O’Sullivan: Serious rise in Irish greenhouse gas emissions, figures show
    Expert warns of fines of up to €455m in 2020 as EU targets likely to be missed
    The State has committed to reducing carbon emissions by 20 per cent by 2020 and increasing the amount of energy taken from renewable sources. Progress was made on these commitments ***while economic activity decreased during the recession years, but the State has since fallen back to 2009 emissions levels…

    Dr Paul Deane, of University College Cork’s Environmental Research Institute, said Ireland was relatively unique in European terms in failing to meet both emissions and renewable energy targets.
    He estimated that based on current emissions, Ireland could face EU fines of some €455 million in 2020 for failing to meet its reduction targets.
    However, he said this was about 25 per cent lower than a previous projection of €610 million. The lower number reflects the falling cost of “carbon credits”, which are typically purchased in lieu of fines, he explained…

    Dr Eimear Cotter, director of the EPA’s Office of Environmental Sustainability, said a transformation of the State energy, agriculture and transport systems would be needed if Ireland was to meet its long-term goals to reduce emissions…

    Agriculture: Emissions from farming increased by 2.7 per cent in 2016. The most significant drivers are higher dairy cow numbers (up 6.2 per cent), which reflects national plans to expand milk production. Dairy cow numbers have increased by 22 per cent in the past four years, while greenhouse gas emissions increased by 8 per cent over that time.

    Transport: Emissions have increased by 3.7 per cent in 2016 and 13 per cent in the past four years. This is driven by economic and employment growth and shows no sign of abatement in the short term.

    Energy industry: Emissions increased by 6.1 per cent in 2016. This is underpinned by an increase in demand for electricity and more electricity generation from gas. In 2016, decreases were observed in coal and peat use and also renewable energy sources (ie wind) ***due to weather conditions…

    Dr Cara Augustenborg of Friends of the Earth Ireland said the group was appalled by the EPA report…READ ON
    http://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/serious-rise-in-irish-greenhouse-gas-emissions-figures-show-1.3306961

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  • #
    pat

    28 Nov: Bloomberg: EPA to Hold Its One Hearing on Climate Rollback—in Coal Country
    By Christopher Flavelle
    While the Environmental Protection Agency leadership under Obama steered clear of the coal-producing state, the agency will hold a public hearing on dismantling Obama’s climate rule in Charleston, West Virginia on Tuesday and Wednesday. That will give coal miners and executives easy access to weigh in on the plan to repeal the Clean Power Plan, which would have forced utilities to burn less coal…

    Opponents of the plan loudly faulted Pruitt’s predecessor, Gina McCarthy, for not holding a hearing in West Virginia while she was developing the Clean Power Plan. In 2015, West Virginia Republican Senator Shelley Moore Capito said she was “appalled” by McCarthy’s skipping her state. This week’s hearings mark a sort of rebuke to that decision.

    Among the issues the agency must decide is whether and how it will replace the Obama-era rule. One industry group, Electric Reliability Coordinating Council, is set to argue Tuesday that the benefits of the rule didn’t justify the costs. But the group also will ask for a milder replacement plan.
    “Federal guidance of sufficient flexibility, and limited to actions within the fence line, can provide regulatory certainty, diminish frivolous litigation, and can aide in planning,” Scott Segal, the group’s director, will say, according to a written copy of his remarks…
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-28/epa-to-hold-its-one-hearing-on-climate-rollback-in-coal-country

    28 Nov: Register-Herald: Officials voice support of repealing Clean Power Plan in West Virginia Coal Association rally
    By Andrea Lannom
    CHARLESTON — Some state officials and industry supporters spoke in favor of repealing the Clean Power Plan at a Tuesday rally outside the Capitol where the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is conducting it two-day public comment hearings on the proposed repeal.
    The West Virginia Coal Association hosted the rally with speakers, including Senate President Mitch Carmichael and House Speaker Tim Armstead voicing their support of repealing the Clean Power Plan. Some even called Tuesday a day of celebration.

    “I think we ought to forever celebrate today,” Chris Hamilton, vice president of the West Virginia Coal Association, told those who gathered outside the Capitol. “Today shows officially the end of the war on coal from the Trump administration. I think we should always celebrate Nov. 28 going forward.”

    Hamilton went on to say he felt the state should celebrate the day President Donald Trump was elected. He reiterated comments he made earlier that day when he spoke in the EPA public hearing applauding Trump and his administration.
    “I made remarks earlier that I was not sure Russians had any intervention or anything to do with last year’s election. I think it was divine intervention,” Hamilton said. “And I thank God for President Trump. I thank God for EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt and I thank God for DOE Energy Secretary Rick Perry.”…

    “It’s significant to have the EPA hearing here,” West Virginia Coal Association President Bill Raney said Tuesday. “The only one is right here in coal country. The EPA has never been here to listen to people most affected by policies over the years. It’s a big day for West Virginia.”
    State officials who spoke at Tuesday’s rally voiced their support of repealing the plan…

    West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey called the Clean Power Plan “unlawful on every level.” Morrisey along with 27 other state attorneys general have challenged the plan. Morrisey, who is running for U.S. Senate, said his goal is to put an end to the Clean Power Plan…

    “It’s exciting to have the EPA here today,” Armstead said. “Time and time again, we’ve said to the EPA to come to West Virginia, to come to the area affected with regulations. Listen to the people affected. Listen to the people who have jobs in this state … Finally, thanks to President Trump, this has happened.”
    http://www.register-herald.com/news/officials-voice-support-of-repealing-clean-power-plan-in-west/article_53241beb-3fcc-5cdb-80cf-7f258c1d5ea8.html

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    • #
      pat

      those in favour of the Clean Power Plan as is lie:

      1min28secs in: Alan Tweedle, CEO, Composite Transport Technologies Inc: “We’re seeing storms we’ve never seen before, and they they are going to get worse.”

      VIDEO: 2mins19secs: 28 Nov: WSAZ3 WestVirginia: Environmental Protection Agency holds public hearing on clean power in Charleston
      By Blaine Carragher
      CHARLESTON, W.Va. (WSAZ)– During a public hearing in West Virginia’s capital city, coal miners and coal industry leaders were advocating for the EPA to repeal the Clean Power Plan…
      “We’re excited to get this feedback and move forward,” EPA region 3 administrator Cosmo Servidio told WSAZ. West Virginia is part of Servidio’s territory…
      “It’s important that we get this regulation completely off the books,” West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey said.

      While several were there in support of the repeal, others were staunchly opposed. Environmentalists argue the plan can clean up the air.
      Across the river from the state Capitol, groups met at University of Charleston in support of the Clean Power Plan Tuesday afternoon…
      http://www.wsaz.com/content/news/Environmental-Protection-Agency-holds-public-hearing-on-clean-power-in-Charleston-460629423.html

      ***life-long engineer? plus more lies:

      28 Nov: Register-Herald: Matt Combs: Sierra Club outlines opposition to repeal of Clean Power Plan
      CHARLESTON — Although ensconced at the University of Charleston Tuesday, the attention of West Virginia’s Sierra Club was pointed across the Kanawha River at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s public hearing on the repeal of the Obama administration’s Clean Power Plan.
      Sierra was joined in its “Hearing for Healthy Communities” discussion by other state and national organizations with vested interest in environmental protection…

      First to speak was Alan Tweedle, CEO of West Virginia-based Composite Transport Technologies Inc.
      “I’m an engineer,” Tweedle opened. “I’ve got 50 years experience in the whole world of pollution. That was my specialty as an engineer and I’m very, very concerned.”…
      “The fascinating part of addressing climate change is it’s an enormous economic opportunity,” Tweedle said. “The economic picture of climate change is so totally contrary to what you hear in this state, which I call the epicenter of climate denial.”…

      The ***life-long engineer, cited examples of perceived impact of climate change that are presently taking place.
      Explaining that he has a close college friend living in Alaska, Tweedle highlighted 30 seaside Alaskan villages that are in immediate need of being moved, along with an additional 125 that will need to be moved in the next 10 years.
      Highlighting an example of sea-level rise in the Mid-Atlantic, Tweedle explained the situation currently unfolding at the Norfolk Naval Station.

      According to Tweedle, the home of America’s Atlantic Fleet currently floods eight times a year, with estimates that flooding will take over the base 280 times a year by 2030.
      “The military is completely committed to addressing climate change,” Tweedle said. “They don’t even discuss it anymore.”

      While Tweedle discussed his opinion on possible ramifications of climate change, he added the transition to renewable energies provides an opportunity for economic growth, a sentiment that was also shared by the Rev. Tony Pierce of Peoria, Illinois.
      Pierce is also involved in social and environmental issues in his hometown and throughout his state…

      David Doniger, director of the Climate and Clear Air Program of the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), also spoke out against a repeal of the Clean Power Plan…
      Doniger was most perturbed by the fact that Pruitt and the EPA have scheduled only one public forum, this week in Charleston, against the four events held during the previous administration’s efforts to pass the plan…

      ***“If he (Pruitt) goes through with this, we will see him in court,” Doniger said, adding that he believes Pruitt and the Trump administration’s legal standing is uncertain…
      http://www.register-herald.com/news/sierra-club-outlines-opposition-to-repeal-of-clean-power-plan/article_991ae96b-3c19-5795-b3fc-08fa86e50963.html

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      • #
        pat

        27 Nov: Scientific American: Trump Races to Pick Judges Who Oversee Environment Cases
        The president’s court picks could help his climate legacy endure long after Trump leaves office
        By Robin Bravender, Scott Waldman, ClimateWire
        Trump’s judicial appointments rank “pretty high” in terms of his climate change legacy, said Glenn Sugameli, who runs the Judging the Environment project, which tracks judicial nominees’ environmental records.
        “They’re the ones that are going to determine whether the actions taken by the Obama administration, by states and local governments are justified, are legal, are sustainable,” he said. And “they’re the ones that are going to decide whether the actions taken by the Trump administration are legal.”

        Richard Lazarus, an environmental law expert and professor at Harvard Law School, said courts have played an “outsized role” in climate policy in recent years because regulators are working with an old law to deal with a problem its authors weren’t specifically addressing…

        Michael Gerrard, director of the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law at Columbia Law School, said he’s also expecting to see “a lot more litigation about fossil fuel extraction, especially on federal lands and waters,” as the Trump administration seeks to expand domestic energy production…

        While the pace of appointments is significant, it would likely take years for the Trump administration to equal the influence of the Obama administration, said Jonathan Adler, director of the Center for Business Law and Regulation at the Case Western Reserve University School of Law. He noted that the Obama administration appointed about 40 percent of the federal judiciary in active service. He said if Trump is president for eight years, he could have a similar influence. But it will take years for Trump to tip the ideological balance of the courts, he said..

        For now, the effect of Trump’s appointments on environmental policy is limited because his appointments have not tipped the balance of liberal and conservative judges in any of the key appeals courts, including the 9th Circuit in California that encompasses Nevada, Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Montana, Alaska, Arizona, Hawaii, Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands. Trump has also not tipped the balance in the 10th Circuit, where federal land cases might be heard, and which includes Utah, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, Kansas and Oklahoma.

        The administration has nominated a judge to the D.C. Circuit, which is tremendously influential in federal policy, but that move would replace a conservative with a conservative. The balance on that court still favors Democratic nominees, who make up seven active members of the court compared with four Republicans.

        Any shift in the courts toward a more conservative bent on environmental policy would reset the balance of power away from the federal government and back toward the states where it belongs, said Hans von Spakovsky, senior legal fellow at the Heritage Foundation, which has been instrumental in helping the Trump administration shape the courts.

        He said EPA and other federal agencies that set environmental policy have exceeded the bounds of their authority in recent years and that the federal role has overshadowed the state role in environmental policy, where the two should be equal. He said Trump’s judicial appointments will bring the federal government back inside the bounds of legislation passed by Congress.

        “Conservatives, just like liberals, want a clean environment,” Spakovsky said. “But we expect federal agencies to act within the authority delegated to them by Congress and to do so in compliance with all applicable laws and regulations. Trump’s judges will help make sure that happens.”
        https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/trump-races-to-pick-judges-who-oversee-environment-cases/

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  • #
    pat

    28 Nov: Daily Caller: Michael Bastasch: EPA Sued For Withholding A List Of Officials Who Can Send Encrypted Messages
    The Cause of Action Institute (CoA) is continuing its battle for records on how many EPA employees may have tried to shield their work-related communications with encrypted apps, like Signal, to avoid federal transparency laws.
    CoA has filed three Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests for agency records, including EPA’s use of the software tool “Mobile Device Management” to compile master lists of apps installed onto government mobile devices and computers.

    EPA has so far only responded to two of CoA’s three FOIA requests, so the group is suing to get more records released. CoA filed suit against EPA in the U.S. District Court for D.C.
    “We now know that a small group of career EPA employees used Signal to avoid transparency,” CoA counsel Ryan Mulvey said in an emailed statement.
    “These employees’ work-related communications—including their messages concerning any proposed efforts to thwart the new Administration’s political appointees from carrying out the President’s policy agenda—should have been preserved for disclosure to the public,” Mulvey said. “Records released by the EPA, however, prove that this preservation never took place.”…READ ALL
    http://dailycaller.com/2017/11/28/epa-sued-for-withholding-a-list-of-officials-who-can-send-encrypted-messages/

    27 Nov: Daily Caller: Chris White: Watchdog Finds More Evidence Obama’s EPA Broke Federal Law
    Former President Barack Obama’s EPA used a social media platform to secretly promote the agency’s policies in violation of federal law, according to a conservative watchdog group in Washington, D.C.

    Judicial Watch obtained 900 pages of documents Monday showing the EPA used social media to lobby support for the Waters of the United States (WOTUS) rule. The agency used Thunderclap, a platform that shares messages across Facebook and Twitter, to recruit outside groups to generate support for various environmental policies…
    Federal law prohibits agencies from engaging in propaganda…

    “I don’t want it to look like EPA used our own social media accounts to reach our support goal,” former EPA Director of Web Communications Jessica Orquina wrote in an email in 2014 to Karen Wirth, an EPA team leader in the Office of Ground Water and Drinking Water.
    Judicial Watch obtained the email records through a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) lawsuit after the EPA failed to respond to a FOIA request in May…READ ALL
    http://dailycaller.com/2017/11/27/watchdogs-turned-up-more-evidence-obamas-epa-broke-federal-law/

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  • #
    pat

    28 Nov: AFP: Greenpeace sounds alarm on nuclear safety with new break-in
    A group of Greenpeace activists broke into a French nuclear plant on Tuesday and scaled the walls of a building containing spent nuclear fuel to highlight security shortcomings at the facility…
    Four activists scaled one of the buildings containing pools used to cool highly radioactive spent fuel rods and set off flares.
    “All you need to do is make a hole (in the building) to start a fire,” Yannick Rousselet, Greenpeace France’s chief anti-nuclear campaigner told AFP…

    France’s state-owned energy giant EDF which operates the plant confirmed the intrusion but said that the plant’s safety was never in danger.
    Regional security officials said 22 people were arrested, adding they had posed no threat.
    The incident is the second of its kind in as many months…
    https://www.afp.com/en/news/2265/greenpeace-sounds-alarm-nuclear-safety-new-break-doc-un89g1

    VIDEO: 28 Nov: RT: Are nuclear power plants protected in France? Greenpeace had no problems breaking in
    Police arrested 22 activists who participated in the stunt. France’s state-owned energy giant EDF, which operates the Cruas-Meysse plant, confirmed there had been a break-in but said the breech posed no threat to the plant’s safety…
    https://www.rt.com/news/411176-france-nuclear-plants-greenpeace/

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    • #
      Graeme No.3

      pat:

      Obviously the way to show how something is dangerous is to rush to it. The same logic applies to tiger cages at the zoo, a pride of lions out on the veldt, bubble of explosive with the fuse light etc.
      It does suggest that the gene for Green thinking is a recent mutation, no matter how many times it ocured in the past.

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  • #
    Amber

    Britain failed energy policies annually cause more deaths than all allied casualties on D-Day combined .
    Isn’t it sad that some of those people made it through D-Day only to be killed by their own government.
    Another inconvenient truth .
    Charge the politicians with manslaughter .

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  • #
    RickWilll

    South Australian forecast power prices for Thursday 30th are spectacular:
    30/11/2017 14:30 $9,775.32 1,989.15 1,756.00 270.02 43.42 Forecast
    30/11/2017 15:00 $12,786.17 1,994.89 1,756.00 267.30 34.89 Forecast
    30/11/2017 15:30 $13,341.37 2,028.73 1,883.00 264.92 126.40 Forecast
    30/11/2017 16:00 $11,515.02 2,057.48 1,884.00 262.54 95.75 Forecast
    30/11/2017 16:30 $10,873.63 2,069.66 1,901.26 246.74 85.69 Forecast
    30/11/2017 17:00 $11,709.92 2,061.21 1,920.00 235.27 100.63 Forecast
    30/11/2017 17:30 $13,409.53 2,038.28 1,924.00 219.71 112.27 Forecast
    30/11/2017 18:00 $12,981.17 2,007.31 1,771.00 215.91 -13.27 Forecast
    30/11/2017 18:30 $9,723.13 1,961.62 1,776.00 233.24 54.37 Forecast

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    • #
      RickWilll

      This is consistent with the LOR2 notice:
      PDPASA – Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the VIC Region on 30/11/2017
      AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

      AEMO declares a Forecast LOR2 condition under clause 4.8.4(c) of the National Electricity Rules for the VIC region for the following period[s]:

      From 1530 hrs to 1700 hrs on 30/11/2017.
      The contingency capacity reserve required is 594 MW.
      The minimum reserve available is 472 MW.

      AEMO is seeking a market response.

      AEMO will determine the latest time at which they would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event.

      Manager NEM Real Time Operations

      Friday will be interesting in SA and VIC.

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    • #
      RickWilll

      South Australia went over $2000/MWh at 5pm. Would be a good time to be dumping battery energy into the grid. Would not take many cycles if charge at negative cost and discharged at over $2000.

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    robert rosicka

    OT but worth mentioning, Sam Dastyari who we know struggles with the truth has been caught out big time .

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-29/sam-dastyari-secret-south-china-sea-recordings/9198044

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  • #
    Eddie

    The flu vaccine was almost completely ineffective at preventing flu in the over 65s last year. Meanwhile reports from Australia suggest it’s been having it’s worst flu season in a decade so, apart from the weather, the UK’s national health service is expecting a terrible winter to come.

    https://www.express.co.uk/life-style/health/866016/Flu-jab-effectiveness-vaccine-influenza-NHS-scared-over65s-injection-worried

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