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Health Warnings issued for Tasmanians facing six days over 25 degrees (77F +) !

Hobartians face a record heatwave for November

Things are so serious they may find Echidnas in their dog’s water bowl.

Echidna in dog's water bowl

Wildlife struggling to find water during the hot weather are likely to seek relief in your backyard. Photo: Emma C

Spend billions. Stop climate change. We simply can’t allow this kind of disaster:

Heatwave health alert issued for southern Tasmania as 130yo record set to fall

The weather bureau’s Tim Bolden said it was shaping up to be the first time Hobart has recorded six consecutive days on or above 25 degrees Celsius in November in nearly 130 years.

“[We'll break the record] if we make it to the six days that we’re currently forecasting over 25 degrees — since last Saturday up until Thursday — and it’s certainly looking very likely,” Mr Bolden said.

“[We are] currently forecasting 28 for Tuesday, 29 for Wednesday and 29 for Thursday, having reached 30 last Saturday, 27 on Sunday and 27 on Monday.

“If we make it to that stretch of six days above 25 degrees, that would be a record heat spell for November, and equal to the maximum heat spell for the Hobart area that we’ve ever seen.

“So it’s looking like a very significant event.”

Ladies and Gentlemen, hold your breath, here’s the full awful truth about what climate change has done to Novembers in Hobart. If only the ABC staff were trained to research the internet and find these kinds of graphs. (If only the BOM were…)

November Maximum mean temperatures, Tasmania, Hobart, Graph, 2017.

Spot the effect of CO2. Anyone?

Source: Bureau of Meteorology, Hobart

Long ago, back in 2003, Tasmanians had to endure a January where the Mean Maximum for the whole month was 25C. How did they survive? Five times in one month temperatures reached above 30C (even 37C!). Going back to times when the climate was perfect, in February 1895, the average temperature for the month was also 25C.  So the effect of one hot week in November is … not that different to surviving normal summer conditions, but two weeks early. Set up a task force!

I had to double check this story wasn’t filed under “satire” and wasn’t talking about minima.

Pray for people in Tasmania. There are real issues that need discussing but the ABC and BOM are data-mining to generate “record hot” headlines.

h/t RobertRosicka, Pat. :-)

PS: The ABC restrained themselves by not blaming climate change explicitly in this story, but neither did they bother to get the bigger perspective on whether “records” like this are even worth mentioning. The public are now well trained to blame climate change with every cherry picked record.

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227 comments to Health Warnings issued for Tasmanians facing six days over 25 degrees (77F +) !

  • #
    RodM

    The poor things. I do feel for them.

    90

    • #
      Annie

      Poor darlings! I was brush-cutting fencelines today in at least 29C and humid and I am no spring chicken. This was in North Central Vic and we had thunderstorms a bit later. I have to say that I am enjoying a glass of white and also enjoying the A/C which is set on 24C. Cheers, and commiserations to our Tassie friends!

      170

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        I have mates in canberra who are enjoying the warmth, but they have also said that its not uncommon for it to snow in canberra in november either. It could be just the unpredictability of a sub-alpine climate, but tas I think would have similar climate? If so, the climate “flakiness” is just a function of the climate type. On occasion , while hiking up at Thredbo, the weather can change, and quickly, from sunny to howling wind and rain in a matter of hours. There is no “weirdness” to this, rather just the alpine climate at work.

        No idea how the public broadcaster managed to keep itself restrained…it wont hold…like most pathological behavour, it can only be suppressed for so long, but it will resurface – with a vengeance – later….Pavlov would be proud…

        80

        • #
          Annie

          We were walking at Pretty Valley at Falls Creek some years back. It was a week before Christmas and we had a blizzard…right among the snow gums! The snow didn’t lie around long and down at Mt Beauty where we were staying it was hot and humid.

          70

          • #

            Poor darlings in Tasmania. With some fellow pensioners we spent a balmy day at Sandfire last week, plant collecting with 45C in the shade. Seed only ripens when it’s hot enough.

            60

    • #
      Roger

      The significance of this is that after decades of ‘global warming’ temperatures are what they were 130 years ago…….

      Not the best bit of propaganda for AGW …… where is it ?

      110

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        Can someone interpret the BOMs latest “predictions”?

        http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-21/bom-announces-short-weak-la-nina-for-summer/9154204

        BOM announces short, weak La Nina probability for summer lacking rainfall but packing heatwaves

        The Bureau of Meteorology’s latest climate wrap has tilted the warning level over to a La Nina alert, the highest level below an official La Nina.

        A La Nina is now highly likely this summer, but the rainfall typically associated with the conditions is not expected due to competing climate drivers.

        This La Nina could be more associated with heatwaves than rainfall.

        “There are two things that have happened,” said Dr Blair Trewin, a senior BOM climatologist.

        “The sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific have cooled a bit further, so in the key areas of the central and east-central Pacific we are now looking at sea surface temperatures of 0.5-0.6 of a degree below average.

        What can we expect?

        While it looks like there is 70 per cent chance of a La Nina this summer, models suggest it will be short lived and will not bring about the widespread rainfall typically associated with La Nina.

        What El Nino and La Nina actually do

        The latest outlook, released last week, suggests it could be warm and dry for parts of Australia over the next three months despite the looming La Nina.

        “The interesting thing about this one is that the conditions around the Australian continent itself are not those typical of a La Nina,” Dr Trewin said.

        “Normally when you have a La Nina in the eastern-central equatorial Pacific you will have warm waters around Australia and you will have warm temperatures in the Indian Ocean. And we don’t have those at the moment.”

        Dr Trewin said that this meant the usual sources of moisture that a La Nina brings to the continent would be largely missing.

        “The climate outlook for this summer is, if anything, leaning slightly towards the dry side despite the likelihood of a weak La Nina,” he said.

        “Whereas there are other parts of the world which we would expect to see more typical La Nina signals.”

        What about extreme events?

        Dr Trewin said the change from a ‘Watch’ to an ‘Alert’ will not affect bushfire or cyclone risk too much.

        “It has been incorporated into the outlooks for a couple of months now. One way or the other we were probably going to be borderline La Nina,” he said.

        According to Dr Trewin there is a natural disaster which a weak La Nina could have a big impact on.”

        40

        • #
          Sceptical Sam

          Yep.

          What it means is this:

          Summer will officially arrive on 1 December and last for exactly three months. It will be hot and dry with the occasional thunderstorm.

          Go to the beach. Have a beer. Play a bit of golf.

          90

          • #
            Will Janoschka

            Yep.What it means is this: Summer will officially arrive on 1 December and last for exactly three months. It will be hot and dry with the occasional thunderstorm. Go to the beach. Have a beer. Play a bit of golf.

            How horrible! Pitty poor Santa, Rudolph, and the rest of the gang! Does the sleigh grow rollers when traveling south?
            Ho ho ho!

            30

        • #
          Ozwitch

          Was just about to post this, thank you for saving me the trouble.
          Terrified that people might believe that global warming is not the worst thing to ever happen to humankind, the BOM puts out the most confused, wussy, non-committal, semantically empty summer forecast with lots of “mights” and “coulds” hoping desperately that nobody notices that we may not have a record breaking hot dry summer. The despair in the text is only too apparent.
          I suspect that after all this pathetic fence-sitting we are in for a wet mild summer after all, and those people who depend on the BOM for accurate forecasting – you know, farmers, rural industries, and water management bodies like the MDBA and others, will be blamed because they got it wrong again based on the advice they had every right to expect should be useful, being completely inaccurate and misleading.

          61

    • #
      ivan

      Since it is the BoM that is making this prediction using their i second peak temperature reading device with the results homogenized with some other i second peak readings from a unit outside a blast furnace somewhere it will be hotter than anyone expects evah.

      131

  • #
    Graham Richards

    This is a disaster! Last time temperatures ran this high a whole generation was born with two heads.

    233

    • #
      KinkyKeith

      Do you have a reference for that?

      :)

      50

      • #

        Do you have a reference for that?

        Says Kinky Keith, as he is channelling DHC-6.

        Tony.

        60

        • #
          KinkyKeith

          True Tony,

          My favourite aircraft, the twin otter.

          40

          • #
            Will Janoschka

            “My favourite aircraft, the twin otter.”

            :-) but Ha! 1-2 many engines, and 1-2 many pilots!
            Try the Fairchild Hiller Heli-Porter (PC-6), Six place, with mounted 20mm chain gun. The only craft with two beer can holders for “the pilot”. Thank you Ev, we have much more to learn! :-)
            All the best!-will-

            20

      • #
        Rereke Whakaaro

        The answer to that question, probably depends on which head you ask.

        90

      • #
        gary turner

        Al Gore, maybe an exhibit? I know he must have two heads as often as he talks out of his a$$. The second is hidden away where the sun don’t shine.

        90

  • #
    Hasbeen

    Wow! Unprecedented heat.

    Well it would be if it hadn’t happened 130 years ago.

    It must have been all those horses farting that did it.

    170

    • #
      robert rosicka

      Highest recorded temp in November for Hobart was just over 36 so how does this story make a mention on the ABC .
      Or is this another cunning Baldrick plan to homogenise where they set the minimum temps for heatwaves , the boy who cried wolf .

      121

      • #

        Ahh but Robert, seriously, this probably is the Hottest Six Day Consecutive Mean Maximum in November!

        There are only 45768 other combinations of possible 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 day, month, records of warmest/coolest ever nights or days in each of 12 months, 4 seasons, and not to mention special events, public holidays, opening weeks of school and Happy Hanukkahs.

        352

        • #
          robert rosicka

          I grew up on farms and spent most of my life in the bush , we always listen to the ABC as an emergency channel on the radio when travelling and camping out as do many others .
          With stories like this we are more than likely going to change channel when we hear a warning alert because of the increasing rhetoric and fake news coming out of the ABC these days .

          261

        • #
          Bobl

          Perhaps to get a little perspective all Tasmanians should spend a six day period in marble bar…

          130

        • #
          Tim Hammond

          Exactly! If you are going to look at records like this, then it is inevitable that there will be records set quite often, because we don’t have enough data yet to cover all the possibilities.

          90

        • #
          me@home

          Jo, I am interested in how your 45,000 + number was calculated / estimated. Is it meant to be real or just indicative of a large number? I got c 10,000.

          10

    • #
      Yonniestone

      Any reliable accepted BOM temperature data only goes back to 1910 so 1887 is irrelevant anyway, worlds best practice and all that doncha know.

      Ironic that BOM and Petard are so close in meaning………

      91

  • #
    Manfred

    Tasmania should secede from the Federation, offer asylum to Mugabe and create a new Trump-free headquarters for the UN. It makes so much sense, and, the MSM would applaud.

    150

    • #
      James

      You are welcome to the UN. We will send you the building piece by piece, with our compliments, and President Trump’s as well. The Money spent at the UN would probably be more than the gross state product of Tasmania!

      60

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        We could disassemble the UN HQ, and use it to build toilet blocks.

        At least it would be finally put to a good use….

        60

  • #
    Kevin Lohse

    Err….. The scale on the y axis of that graph only goes to 22C, and the highest temperature plotted is an eyeballed 21C. The Story is about temps reaching 25C or more. Am I missing something?

    80

  • #
    robert rosicka

    There’s been a bit of this including the Melbourne heatwave of days above 30 , if anyone does a check of places in the southwest of tassie it doesn’t take long to find somewhere like adventure bay which is expecting one day of a blistering 23 and a couple of 22 .
    We should declare an emergency and send in the army to help these poor people and I’m amazed the greens are silent .
    But at least our resident troll thinks it’s a non issue .
    I never did a check of past record temps because usually the current claims just don’t stack up and I remember the fires in the south west a few years ago were called unprecedented but when I checked it was a bogus claim .
    Amazing how they can go back 150 years when it suits .

    101

  • #

    Shall we have a new iconic image, Global Warming – gasp!
    It’s so alarming, echidna in a dish replacing poli on
    what’s left of Arctic ice?
    http://static1.businessinsider.com/image/4e488ea169beddb83e00004d-1190-625/morgan-stanley-these-huge-stocks-show-that-the-market-is-already-expecting-disaster.jpg

    70

  • #

    You often find that if it is a bit warm somewhere it is a bit chilly elsewhere. Rather like the not-for-discussion increase of sea ice in Antarctica even as there was a decrease in the Arctic (by autumn min post-1979 sat record).

    So guess what! Here on the cool and damp midcoast of NSW November is still cooler than October by mean max, and October was cooler than September by mean max. In ten days we will know if there has actually been a reverse spring, with each month cooler than the one preceding. At present it’s a chance. There are perfectly good reasons why this would eventually happen, and they have to do with common tendencies of wind and fronts at this time of year in this part of Australia. But while it’s not all that rare for one spring month to be cooler than the one preceding, this “reverse spring” is a real long shot, maybe a first. (It almost happened in 1937, just missed.)

    But let the climatariat keep talking about Tassie…and, look, a squirrel!

    170

    • #
      toorightmate

      Does anyone know if November 2017 is heading to be the coolest Brisbane November EEEVVVVAAAAAHHHHH?

      170

      • #

        We’ll know by the deafening silence.

        180

      • #
        el gordo

        The blocking highs are bringing heat to Tassie from central Australia and cool wet onshore winds to Brisbane.

        I tells ya, its a regional cooling signal.

        90

        • #
          el gordo

          Correction: The Taswegian heatwave is not really coming from central Australia, more central west NSW.

          https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-215.91,-21.64,821/loc=150.809,-37.646

          40

        • #

          Sea temperatures are probably starting to kick in. BoM’s ENSO overview released today … http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Overview
          __

          The tropical Pacific is approaching La Niña thresholds. If the current progression continues, and thresholds are exceeded for a sustained period, 2017–18 will be considered a La Niña event. As a result, the Bureau’s ENSO Outlook has been raised to La Niña ALERT meaning there is approximately a 70% chance—or triple the normal likelihood—of La Niña occurring. Climate models suggest that any event is likely to be weak and short-lived. This means it is expected to be very different to the strong 2010–12 La Niña.

          Oceanic indicators of ENSO show a clear progression towards La Niña. Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have cooled since late winter, and waters beneath the surface remain cooler than average in the eastern Pacific. However, they are currently just shy of La Niña thresholds. Atmospheric indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and trade winds have shown signs of shifting into a La Niña-like state. In order for La Niña to become established, atmospheric and oceanic indicators need to be reinforcing each other (“coupled”), which will strengthen and sustain these changes (i.e. a positive feedback).

          All international climate models suggest further cooling of the tropical Pacific is likely. All models reach La Niña thresholds in December 2017, and most maintain these values until at least February 2018.

          La Niña typically brings above average rainfall to eastern Australia during late spring and summer. However, sea surface temperature patterns in the Indian Ocean and closer to Australia are not typical of La Niña, reducing the likelihood of widespread summer rainfall. La Niña can also increase the chance of prolonged warm spells for southeast Australia.
          __

          The BoM and all international ENSO outlooks have been 100% incorrect over the past 12 months so the La Nina strength and duration forecast above isn’t reliable. The NOAA’s SST satellite mapping from yesterday (http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2017/anomnight.11.20.2017.gif) is worth comparing with the beginning of November (http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2017/anomnight.11.2.2017.gif). Note that seas all the way along the Queensland coast have gone from above to below average temperature over the past three weeks and the southern hemisphere Pacific is now mostly below average.

          130

          • #
            el gordo

            Good catch Chris, we can say with 97% certainty that there won’t be any GBR coral bleaching this summer.

            Reading through NOAA paperwork I noticed that the back to back La Nina of 2010-2012 produced the coldest world temperatures in recorded history.

            It would be of great advantage to our cause if there was a repeat performance and then a quiet sun kept the world below the Spencer line for a decade or more. For the flash cool mob it’ll be game set and match, and presumably our long awaited political victory.

            70

        • #
          Glen Michel

          Well I can tell you that in northern NSW our anomalies are 2.5 below both average in both max.and min. Hoping for some warmer stuff.Unfortunately the metrosexual inner city types who do the weather will carry on in their oblivious braindead state.

          110

    • #

      Whether the echidna
      will survive such
      untoward warming
      in Tasmania

      is an enigma.

      110

  • #
    NB

    The beautiful thing about weather data is that it is possible to turn just about anything into a record of some sort. And, if you are after a particular kind of record you can almost always find the data to create it, so long as you are willing to select appropriately. And goodness gracious, our friends in the AGW industry are sure willing to select!

    151

  • #
    toorightmate

    It’s hot!
    Very hot!!
    Over 25 degs!!!
    Send more GST!!!!

    131

  • #
  • #

    Is it polite and SFW to mention that Hobart’s five hottest Novembers by mean max were in 1882 (start of record), 1901, 1921 (hottest), 1945 and 1982? Hottest November day was in 1937.

    This could be another one of those echidna-ate-my-homework moments for the BoM.

    160

  • #
    ScotsmanInUtah

    25 Degrees is a minimum for my Girl

    My Brazilian/Italian wife recently told me she welcomes global warming as she finds anything below 25 degrees too cold.

    180

  • #
    ROM

    One of my daughters has been a nurse up in the Darwin hospitals for close on two decades now.

    She told the story a few years back where a new Taswegian nurse signed up with the Darwin Hospital where my daughter worked.

    It was a bit of a cold period for Darwin when she turned up from Tasmania, with the thermometer getting down to close to 22 C or 23 C overnight and the locals getting all rugged up in their version of Darwin winter woollies.

    The new nurse turned up at work at the hospital next morning bitterly complaining about the heat.

    She explained to the gob smacked Darwin regulars that she had to have her A/C on all night because it was so hot.
    .
    ————-
    Its called adaption;
    .

    A long time ago possibly from one of those short paras out of the Readers Digest ;

    A couple of Alaskan types were working on a kayak or boat and had an old Inuit, [ called Eskimos back in those less politically correct days ] helping them with what ever they were doing to the boat /kayak.

    Around midday the temperature finally reached 32 F, ie; 0 C and the old Inuit announced he had had enough of these temperatures .
    It was just too bloody hot for him so he was heading north to where the tempertures were cooler and more pleasant.

    120

    • #
      amortiser

      Reminds me of my stint in Darwin back in the late 70s following Cyclone Tracey. Our office was staffed by people from all over the country and Papua New Guinea during the reconstruction phase.

      In June the weather was wonderful and the camping opportunities fantastic. I have a photo taken one night of our group around an open fire. The guy from Port Moresby was huddled up and wearing a balaclava, 2 woollen jumpers, long strides, woollen socks and boots. I was sitting on the log next to him and being just out of a Canberra winter I was wearing a pair of Speedos. Nobody had noticed until we looked at the photo afterwards.

      100

      • #
        Mary E

        I moved from along the northern coast (Great Lakes) USA to the southern extremes of the US (Florida) for what was to be a 4 year stint, which turned into a 1 year stint. When I returned, in August (north hemi summer, dog days, scorching!, or so they say) I was surprised to discover that it was -cold-. So cold, in fact, I had to wear a heavy sweater. It was only 85F (daytime, nights went to – gasp – 78F or so) and I had become used to 98F plus high humidity (90F nights). By the time winter arrived I had adjusted back (mostly) to the colder temps.

        It took me less than a year to acclimate to Florida, and about 2 months to readjust to the not-quite-northern-but-close-enough-to-the-cold of the lower Great Lakes. Friends who took photos like to tease me still – there they all are, in sundresses, shorts, sandals, and I’m in jeans, long-sleeves and a sweater (or jacket) – and socks inside my “beach” shoes.

        What Cleveland, Ohio thinks of as a summer “heat wave” – 90F+ temps for more than 3 days – is night-time/early morning temps in the southern-most states. And what is considered bone-chilling winter cold (20F) in Cleveland is fairly balmy in the Dakotas (I can’t even type the temps, won’t admit it gets that cold)

        40

    • #
      James Murphy

      Summers in South West Queensland had me thinking that the high 30s was a cool change. On the first visit, the publican at the Noccundra Hotel knew we were from a drilling rig, because he said “sensible people don’t work up here at this time of year”. He’s right – few people have accused me of having a sensible career.

      The air conditioning wasn’t working, but the beer was cold. Priorities.

      60

    • #
      Ian George

      It’s interesting that Darwin’s highest recorded max temp is 40.4C (Darwin AP in 1892) and Hobart’s record is 41.8C.

      40

  • #

    Waaay off topic but a Tip:

    The SA Battery looks to have achieved the distinction of comprising an International Standard Unit of Measurement already, as seen here.

    ..Big South Australian Battery (BSAB)..

    The article discusses the issue of “how much storage (of whatever form) is needed to fill the lulls in the power delivery of the unreliables”.

    Answer – lots, lots more than is usually estimated, and at swingeing unit costs.

    [Thanks Wayne, :- ) -- Jo.]

    20

  • #
    ROM

    Nan and Derek , both now departed this world were a really nice decent Dutch couple who lived across the road from us on a farm for many years.

    Derek was a teenager during WW2. His brother was in the Dutch resistance and hid in the roof of a house for 3 months to escape the Nazis.

    Derek was called up after the end of WW2 for the Dutch Army and sent to indonesia to fight the Japanese and indonesian independence fighters who were backed and supported by the Japanese before they surrendered on August 15 ;1945

    [ I remember being sent home from school soon after we arrived at school that day when it was announced over the ABC that Japan had surrendered. It was declared a national holiday or at least that was what our head teacher had decided.]

    The japanese continued to fight the Dutch army for some time after the official surrender of Japan assisting the Indonesian independence fighters who sometimes attacked the far out numbered Dutch with nothing more than spears and armulets that the imans told them would protect them from bullets.

    [ it was a time and a war torn world very far removed indeed from the world of today ]

    Derek on his discharge from the army after the Dutch had left Indonesia decided that the Netherlands, destroyed and still recovering from the starvation of over half of the Netherlands population that the nazi’s had instigated , decided it was not for him so he boarded a boat for Australia, as far away as possible from the troubles of destroyed Europe.

    In the l;ate 1950′s Derek married Nan via a telephone hook up between Horsham and the Netherlands , no mean feat in those post war days when only a few international cables connected Australia and the Europe of the times.

    Nan was quite easy on the eye and settled into Australian farm life with gusto.

    Both Nan and Derek were very grateful for the opportunities that Australia had given them to begin life anew.

    The first summer and Nan was seen around usually in shorts and a shirt constantly singing the praises of the heat of the Australian summer.

    And we used to often smile as even Nan did later.

    By the following summer, her second summer here in the Australian farm lands, she was just like the rest of us, complaining regularly and often about the bloody heat and the bloody flies.

    And so Nan became an Australian and became a real citizen of Australia with Dereks and her naturalisation not very much later.

    They were good people, the very best!

    170

  • #
    sophocles

    I arrived in Melbourne on 6th June 1990 having left temps of 9° – 10°C in Auckland. I can’t remember what it was in Melbourne at the time but it seemed to me to be hot. It may have been somewhere about 20°C. I was lodged somewhere in South Melbourne, Park Road I think, within comfortable walking distance of where I was to work in the CBD.

    On my first day there, I walked and arrived at the new place of work with my jacket slung over a shoulder, shirt sleeves rolled up, tie stuffed into a pocket and my shirt collar unbuttoned, having worked up a gentle sweat during the walk. My forehead was well beaded with perspiration.

    I boarded the lift with a bunch of women. I was the only male. All the women were dressed in thick woollen coats, knitted scarves, woollen hats and thick woollen gloves, all shivering and rubbing their hands together, while agreeing with each other about how cold it was. The lift fell silent when I quietly disagreed with them. None of us said a thing about that for the rest of the week. I arrived hot and perspiring, they arrived cold, shivery and all rugged up.

    In December, I met Melbourne’s Summer. It was fascinating watching the tram tracks cork-screwing themselves out of the road, and the repair crew hammering them back down. 33°C or so was a “warm” day. I was melting. It was also when I discovered the comforts of the pubs with their Antarctic Air Conditioning and semi-frozen Fosters on tap. It was the first time I could drink and not get drunk. It was amazing how fast fluid entering the mouth left through the skin.

    I returned to Auckland in April 1991. On arrival, it was a about 17° C which is about normal for the month of Indian Summers.
    My only trouble with it was that it felt Expletive Deleted COLD.

    It all comes down to acclimatization.

    If Tas is having a heat wave, they should get out the sun screen and go outside and enjoy it. All a heat wave is, is a large slow-moving anti-cyclone with no cloud. Blue-dome skies from horizon to horizon. Now, I invite Global Warmists to explain in careful and accurate detail how lots of atmospheric CO2 can cause that.

    Whoever attempts the explanation is to remember that the leading zone of all anti-cyclones always have clear cloud free skies, and little if no wind.
    Go for it.

    90

    • #
      sophocles

      The big anticyclone which may have been the “ace up the BOM’s sleeve” for their heat wave prediction, has almost departed Tas, and is now inflicting its wrath on NZ. It hasn’t completely departed Tas by the BOM’s own weather map.

      Big YAWN. Who are they trying to kid?

      It’s fine and sunny in the south. Auckland, as usual, is cloudy and cool.
      (I was brave: it wasn’t snowing, so I went outside and looked around!)
      Temperatures are nowhere near “heatwave” temps—about average for this time of the year in the low 20′s. 21, 22 most places and maybe the odd 25. I’ll see on this evening’s weather …

      The BOM prediction for a heat wave seems to have been way over the top. After this year’s winter, (wash, rinse, repeat every week) NZ would welcome some fine weather like that.

      There’s another one of slightly lower pressure now over Perth. Maybe they’re anticipating that one to be worse …

      40

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      I remember as a teenager living in the NSW Riverina area, temps not dropping below 30C over night for 2 weeks in a row and trying to sleep with cicadas going full tilt … people were short tempered by the time the heat broke 2 weeks later…..

      50

  • #
    King Geo

    Well that blocking high on the east coast has been feeding northerly winds down to Happy Hobart. They should be rejoicing this “warm spell”. And while this has been happening we here in Perth have been blessed with mainly westerlies & cool mid November weather. But remember early November was a different tale because a blocking high positioned more to the west, thus fed SW & S winds to the east coast resulting in “cool” early November weather while here in WA we had a ‘heatwave” because of those warm NE winds. So its depends which way the wind is blowing. SIMPLES (not to most of the MSM especially the ABC, SMH etc regurgitating “warmist doctrine” from BOM ad nauseum).

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  • #
    TdeF

    The first time in 130 years the wind has blown in the same direction for six days in a row in Hobart! Lillee, caught Willee bowled DIlley. Presumably at least 130 years until it happens again.

    120

    • #
      King Geo

      And this gaffe from the late English commentator Brian Johnson during the the same era (1976) “The bowler Holding, the batsman’s Willey”.

      100

    • #
      Wayne Job

      TdeF, I live in Wonthaggi on the south coast of Vic, we are having hot and humid days. That is not a problem, we are wind central here with half a dozen big wind generators that can be seen from town, for the last three or four weeks they have been idle. I am not used to no wind, the wind can blow from all points of the compass in one day.

      90

      • #
        TdeF

        Amazing latitude. Almost no land. The ‘roaring forties’, wind predominantly from the West. The next continent in either direction is South America with a sliver of Chile and the deserts of Southern Patagonia. However we sometimes get these long slivers of tropical Pacific air the length of the continent. However in the world of Climate Change, there are no statistics, there is no luck, no natural variation. It is all the fault of CO2 and the worst sort of CO2 is coal CO2. Diesel CO2 is fine.

        130

  • #
    AndyG55

    Forecasting 26, 27, 26, 26 in Newcastle over the weekend….

    OMG… OMG… we are going to cook !!
    .
    .
    .
    .

    But its gunna get a LOT hotter than that !!

    http://www.supercars.com/newcastle/

    91

    • #
      peter

      I was in Newcastle this arvo. The city was choked! One big traffic jam from closed streets, concrete bollards, cyclone fencing, restricted parking, buses and car traffic in gridlock idling with lots of exhaust gas emissions. No wonder the max temperature reached 21oC today with all those greenhouse gases around. And the race hasn’t even started yet! Supercars will have a lot to answer for if we get a heatwave (or 2) this summer. (Definition of heatwave: when the ABC says so) We may even get six consecutive days above 25oC (almost certain for most weeks of December, January, February). I want the Climate Council to come and shut down the Supercars event to save the planet. At the very least they could force organisers to replace those gas-guzzling V8s with environment-friendly electric golf carts, charged from solar-cells of course. Andy would love that.

      51

      • #
        AndyG55

        Will be fun zooming around those new roads when its all over :-)

        They will probably put road humps all over the place though :-(

        50

      • #
        Manfred

        It’s laughable to think that a future is contemplated with the same image, only full of even more toxic electric cars incapable of running their A/C. Insufficient battery power to sit idly in a long duration traffic jam, A/C running. People flaking out with heat stroke, cars abandoned, more chaos.

        In thermal contrast, a clutch of 4-wheel drive enthusiasts got bogged down in the Otago NZ hills with night closing in, in sub-freezing wind chill temperatures and blizzard conditions. Had they not had their diesel vehicles running for much of the night, able to keep vehicle heaters warm, some of them may have been in dire straits or wearing wooden overcoats.

        Either way, electrick vehicles make very poor life preservers.

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        • #
          John in Oz

          Let’s hope that by the time we are all forced to use electric vehicles they also fix all of the floods as an electric anything does not work too well when underwater

          70

        • #
          OriginalSteve

          Well yes, and the cold kills batteries….try taking your mobile to the snow and watch how fast the battery capacity drops….

          Now imagine a snow-bound tesla…

          40

  • #
    Phillip Bratby

    In the UK we love it if we get any days above 25C.

    40

    • #
      Tdef

      Even cold southernmost Capital Hobart has a latitude of 42. Snow is rare.

      30

      • #
        ROM

        A bit off topic but maybe a bit more information about our atmosphere for quite a lot of lurkers and etc here.

        Back in about the 1970′s or 80′s , my decade dates may be off a bit, NASA was running high altitude research flights down to the Antarctic using the legendary, very high altitude Lockheed Skunkworks designed U2′s out of the East Sale RAAF air field in Victoria’s Gippsland region.

        Being in the gliding game so as to speak and with some of the Australian and American air force pilots plus aircraft designers also glider pilots we often got some not for public consumption information and scuttle butt on aviation matters and various research flights including the real sweaty and sometimes the very short but very noisy bits and etc .

        One of the characteristics of mountainous regions where strong upper level winds of fifty to a couple of hundred kms per hour blow more or less at right angles across the mountain ranges is the formation of Mountain waves or Lee waves.

        These wave systems have been seen by means of the Lenticular clouds that often cap them, at a maximum altitude of say around 100, 000 feet right on down to a few hundred feet above the ground level depending on atmospheric conditions, winds, temperatures, water va]our, mountain or hill configuration and etc .

        I have soared the Grampians mountain wave system in an early wooden construction glider many years ago here in west Vic to just under 24,000 feet but a number of other pilots in much later model sailplanes have reached 30,000 feet in wave from what is a small mountain system by other continent’s standards.
        .

        And in fact the considerable amount of Australian financed Perlan Project has built a pressurised glider and has been waiting over the last year or so in Argentina’s very rugged Patagonia region and intends when conditions are right which only occurs a very few times each SH winter season , and using the immense wave systems as a jumping off point that are triggered by the Andes Mountain systems running the 5000 kilometres or so down the western edges of the South American continent, to jump from the upper levels of the Andes wave systems at around 50, 000 feet altitude into the 300 kph velocity winds of the Polar Vortex wave systems with the aim of reaching 90,000 feet of sustained flight in Antarctica’s Polar Vortex wave systems that are known to exist from observed very high altitude cloud systems.

        Meteorologists and high altitude atmospheric researchers are salivating at the prospects of the Perlan Project bring back information based hopefully on observations taken over a few hours duration from a region of the atmosphere that has never been researched for more than a few minutes by sounding rockets, Balloons and etc which operate up to about 65,000 feet and low orbit satellites from couple of hundred thousand feet altitude leaving the 80,000 feet to about 150,000 feet altitude range of the atmosphere lacking any serious sustained measurements .

        But back to Tasmania;

        The pilots of those Antarctic high altitude research U2 flights spoke of times when they were downwind and well east of Tasmania going to or coming from the Southern Ocean and / or the Antarctica at an altitude of around 65,000 feet, of striking areas of heavy sink where they had full power on to maintain a constant altitude, one of the requirements for this research, and then striking only a very short time later, areas of strong lift where they had the engine almost shut down to idle to try and maintain their designated altitude.

        All of which is proof that the mountains of Tasmania right in the path of those Roaring Forties latitude winds with nothing between Tasmania and South America upwind to the West [ South Africa does not come down anywhere near Tasmania's latitudes ] and NZ down wind to the East are generating wave systems that exceed at least 65,000 feet altitude which is seen as being at the bottom of the stratosphere and therfore the Tasmanian generated mountain wave systems quite likely extend well up into the stratosphere .

        NZ of course is also renown in the gliding world for its immense mountain wave systems and the record distance flights by gliders in those Mountain wave systems by world class/ world best in a couple of cases, NZ glider pilots in those waves generated off their South Island Alps.

        50

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      Phillip:
      I was in David Jones the other day and a young sales assistant bounced up to me.
      David Jones is a conservative department store where for many years the ladies wear all black. This young girl was in black, but with black tights. Very nice legs and a cute bum if I can be sexist. After brief parleys she said she had ben living in the Adelaide Hills for 3 months and she couldn’t get over how cold it was.
      She spoke with a strong Liverpudlian accent!

      A delightful present from England to Australia but I wonder about her australian fiancee not being able to keep her warm.

      51

    • #
      Old44

      My wife was in Brighton UK on a 16C November day and the beach and parks were filled with half naked sunbathers.

      30

  • #
    robert rosicka

    More quality journalism from the ABC , complete with symbolic coal fired plant .

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-21/uni-installs-australias-largest-rooftop-solar-system/9176034

    30

  • #
    TedM

    Perhaps the warmth in Tassie has something to do with this.

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/ocean-page/

    40

    • #
      Sceptical Sam

      The only problem with that Ted, is this:

      “In January 2012, climate researcher Trevor Prowse put questions to the Bureau of Meteorology ………., making the point that as the 14 tidal stations are mostly free of urban heat effect, all are at sea level and are well scattered around Australia, they may be more accurate than any other land-based data.”

      http://www.waclimate.net/sea/sea-air-temperatures.html

      Yes, I know it only goes to 2012 but 20 years of no increase suggests 20 years of no increase.

      An update might be nice.

      51

      • #
        Sceptical Sam

        And you can check Sea Level, barometric Pressure, Water temp and Air Temp for each of the 14 sites here:

        http://reg.bom.gov.au/oceanography/projects/abslmp/data/monthly.shtml

        There is something very wrong with the BoM’s analysis looking at these 14 sites.

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        • #
          TedM

          Sam this shows transient sea surface temperatures, not a trend.

          20

          • #
            Sceptical Sam

            Who said anything about a trend?

            What the data show is that there’s been no change for 20 years.

            It the BoM that wants to say there’s no trend.

            Give those sites another ten years of no change and then, according to BoM, you have a trend. Unless it changes its mind and says 14 data points are insufficient for the drawing of a trend. But they can’t possibly say that without shooting themselves in the foot, now can they?

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  • #
  • #
    Graeme#4

    Many years ago, we folks in Perth only referred to a heatwave when max temps were in the high 30s continuously for about three weeks. I believe that the BOM has now re-defined a heatwave as only a few days.

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    • #
      Ian Hill

      … and 25C is the new 35C!

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    • #
      Manfred

      The rejigging of definitions and use of calamitous adjectives to describe usual 1sigma weather as catastrophic is (as we all know and recognise) a standard working ploy of Leftists in the MSM. It’s an intentional Alinsky SOP to control the language (‘A Word About Words’). While the majority don’t / won’t / can’t correlate Met data with the MSM propaganda, most are now either habituated or have an in one ear out the other approach to it all, which in its own way is quite an effective numbing-up technique.

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      • #
        OriginalSteve

        Interstingly, I met an engineer who considered Alynski a “hero”. This engineer grew up in working class conditions in the USA heavily steeped in unionism.

        Up until he mentoned his approval of Alynski, I figured him to be a decent bloke, but the approval of Alynski ( the same who dedicated his book to the Devil ) was the thing that killed off the friendship.

        I know people have different views of life etc, even his growing up in a very left wing household was fine, but not truly grasping what Alynski truly stood for showed a proper lack of judgement, despite his considerable professional achievements.

        As I get older, I look more for peoples character as a guide to the person.

        20

    • #
      Michael in Brisbane

      My recollection from the ’50s, riding to school and home again every day, hot, cold or wet, was that a heat wave had to be a week of temperatures over 100 degrees F (37.8C).

      70

  • #
    Earl

    The poor little loves at the ABC.
    From their air conditioned office to their air conditioned car, to their air conditioned apartment, to their favourite air conditioned vegan restaurant, then back home on an Obike.
    Life in a bubble must be so……..!!, I can’t think of the words without a total bowel disfunction.

    60

  • #
    King Geo

    While on the subject of “so called heatwaves”, why doesn’t the ABC, SMH etc inform the Aussie public that this November 2017 is globally the 3rd coolest month in the past 28 months (since July 2015, ie prior to the 2015/2016 El Nino event) – based on Weatherbell Global Temp Maps which apply NCEP & CFSR data. There is a strengthening La Nina now in place so expect Global Temps to drop lower in late 2017 & early 2018. Rather inconvenient for the “Warmists” – hee hee hee!!!

    81

  • #
    wal1957

    King Geo….The Gerbil Warming idiots changed their mantra to Climate Change.

    Thus, whether it gats cold, hot, windy, humid, stormy etc, it all gets blamed on climate change.

    Why? Simples…it’s because their Gerbil Warming forecasts were all bloody wrong.

    41

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      Sounds just like the psychotic “micro agressions” game leftists play – no matter what you do, you cant win that one…. unless you ask them who died and made them king….that messs them up completely – its just a question…no agression here…..he he

      20

  • #
    wal1957

    King Geo….The Gerbil Warming idiots changed their mantra to Climate Change.

    Why? Simples…it’s because their Gerbil Warming forecasts were all bloody wrong.

    Thus, whether it gats cold, hot, windy, humid, stormy etc, it all gets blamed on climate change.

    21

  • #
    Bushkid

    So, 130 years ago they also had a whole 6 days in a row over 25C.
    25C – the horror.
    That just says to me that it’s been a while since it was mildly warm in Tassie.
    The echidnas will probably cope.

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    • #
      Geoffrey Williams

      The thing is that Tasi had this 6 day ‘warm event’ 130 years ago. It wasn’t global warming then, and it’s not global warming now. It is only remarkable because of the time gap.
      Regards GeoffW

      30

  • #
    peter

    Jo asks ‘spot the effect of CO2?’ I would ask spot any global warming AT ALL in 130 years? There is none.

    I realise everyone is treating this story as an ABC joke but there are numerous other temp. charts like this one, including for NZ (before their records were homogenised) that effectively show little or no temp. trend. Graphs like this one show that the Emperor’s clothes have fallen off. Does the emperor have to do something rude with his dangly bits before anyone notices?

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    • #
      robert rosicka

      Not only makes a laughing stock out of the ABC it also makes a mockery of BOM’s credibility , that’s if they had any to start with .
      Two once mighty and respected organisations have hit rock bottom and started to dig .

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      • #
        TdeF

        A job with the BOM must be the most boring job on the planet. Most science jobs are. Every meteorologist, as while everyone wants to talk about the weather, who cares are about air pressure patterns.

        So consider how much fun it has been since Climate Change Global Warming close the evil power stations and stuff the country and teach the capitalists a lesson started? Anyone for some artificial warming? It could make your career and you can travel to the UN for existing conferences in Rio, Durban, Paris, Copenhagen.. All expenses paid. No pressure.

        30

        • #
          TdeF

          Exciting conferences. Only a real meteorologist would want to go to existing conferences.

          20

          • #
            ROM

            To quote Samuel Clements, much better known by his pen name as” Mark Twain”
            .

            As it could be said , the BOM are in the “prophecy” business.
            .

            Prophesy is a good line of business, but it is full of risks.
            .
            ——————-
            A quote that defines today’s ABC and the media;
            .

            Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.”

            —————————-

            And a quote I would like to live long enough to be able to use with feeling re the “Climate Change Cult” and “Renewable Energy”.
            .

            I didn’t attend the funeral, but I sent a nice letter saying I approved of it “.

            30

  • #
    Antoine D'Arche

    warm days in November in Hobart or ANYWHERE in Tassie would be a God-send! I lived there for 6 years and every November was still cold.
    ask the Taswegians what they think about it…..

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  • #
    PeterS

    Why are they so worried about a little old heat wave? Nothing new. They always have come and they always have gone. It’s not as though it’s permanent due to some climate change nonsense. They need to grow a brain and wake up.

    51

  • #
    robert rosicka

    I wonder if BOM have been reading this site they have released a blurb about more frequent heatwaves and it’s going to be warm and dry in some parts of Australia over the next three months now doesn’t that restore your faith in the Bureau or what .

    31

  • #
    A C Osborn

    Have you noticed the drop in temp between around 1945/6, it goes from around 21 down 15.2.
    Now you would be able to feel that that kind of change.

    30

  • #
    pat

    such fun reading the comments. here’s another one:

    from the Northern Rivers region of NSW – make of this what you can; more confusing figures at the link:

    note: url says “cold weather delaying our summer” -

    21 Nov: NorthernStar: Still cold in November: Where’s the warm weather?
    by JASMINE BURKE
    WHEN is the Northern Rivers summer going to kick in?
    November, for the past week at least, has had residents in jumpers – an unusual clothing item for this time of year.
    According to the Bureau of Meteorology, the lowest recorded temperatures for November this year have been lower than previous month October’s daily recorded lowest temperatures on most days.
    The lowest recorded temperature for Lismore this month was recorded as 11.3C on November 1 and the highest low was recorded as 17.9C on November 5 .

    November’s average minimum temperature from 2002 to 2017 was recorded as 15.5C , and the average maximum temperature was 28.7C .
    For Lismore, temperatures today are predicted to reach a maximum of 24C, but may get as low as a cool 14C…
    https://www.northernstar.com.au/news/cold-weather-delaying-our-summer/3270188/

    40

  • #
    pat

    “snow-clad” Himalayas at work:

    21 Nov: SkyMetWeather: Delhi winters set in as mercury drops, cold day ahead
    In fact, Delhi continued to record morning temperature around 9°C for the second consecutive day today…
    On Tuesday, Palam Observatory recorded minimum temperature of 9.7°C, which is the season’s lowest night temperature. In fact, this was three degrees below the normal average temperature of 13.6°C…
    Not only minimums but day maximums are also settling below the average by 2-3 degrees…

    Both the observatories in Delhi had been recording mercury around 15°C, which had seen a significant drop of five degrees on November 20. The reason for this sudden drop can be attributed to flow of icy cold northerly and northwesterly winds from the snow clad Himalayas…
    https://www.skymetweather.com/content/weather-news-and-analysis/delhi-winters-set-in-as-mercury-drops-cold-day-ahead/

    60

  • #
    Michael

    Indeed. Having lived in Hobart for a couple of years some years ago, this newsfeed (on Sky, no less) caught my attention.
    Are there temperatures of 38C plus that we experienced in 2012? Or 34C in 2013?
    No, nothing like that. Just normal for the first warm air mass of summer that covers Victoria and Tasmania.
    Who puts these lies out to the MSM? It must be BoM.

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  • #
    Richard Ilfeld

    Oh yeah, awful. The number one industry in my home town in the US, in Florida, is tourism. People like to come here in the winter,
    because it is warm (gasp). Actually, about 5 degF more, on average, then these awful heat wave temps in Hobart.
    Not only do people visit, many move here to leave what is clearly a more prefect climate. Imagine, people find a
    place that is warm, wet, and green in our winter attractive. No wonder most folks think this climate thing is bunko.
    When the myth meets experience, experience usually wins.

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  • #
    Lionell Griffith

    The BOM has totally lost the plot for it complain about a string of 25 C days. In fact it is the Standard Ambient Temperature reference for Chemistry. It is a very comfortable temperature and something to be thankful for.

    Where I live, it is likely that we won’t see 25 C for at least four months and do expect to see many days of below 0 C until then. The high today is predicted to be 6 C and is close to the high for the week.

    61

  • #
    Ruairi

    Tasmanians need to be brave,
    And ignore those warmists who rave,
    That a few warmer days,
    Sets November ablaze,
    As a once in a lifetime heatwave.

    150

  • #
    tom0mason

    US military bootcamp training recommends periods of rest if the temperatures are above 27°C for acclimatisation…

    https://bootcampmilitaryfitnessinstitute.com/2017/10/02/heat-acclimatisation-what-is-the-value-of-short-term-low-volume-training-in-the-operational-context/

    30

    • #
      Old44

      In Darwin they reccomend Great Coats if it falls to 27C.

      70

    • #
      RAH

      When I went through US Army basic training in July and August at Ft. Jackson, SC we had highs running between 30 and 35 basically everyday. Two cases of heat stroke in the training battalion. When the “wet ball” got to a certain point they mandated T-shirt and un-blousing the trousers for the uniform and training to be conducted in shaded areas. One way our drill instructor would get our undivided attention in the late afternoon when we did D&C (marching) training was to make us get down in the “front lean and rest” or IOW pushup position on the asphalt.

      62

  • #
    Old44

    In nearly 130 years means it was hotter 10 years ago.
    I also see by the trend in the graph that the UHI effect is having a negative impact.

    40

  • #
    Svend Ferdinandsen

    Next time they have to evacuate the base at Antarctica because the temperature has been over 0C in several days, and it has never happened before. It is a big health hazard if they forget to dress accordingly.

    51

  • #
    Roy Hogue

    Let me see here. Hmmm! On any summer day in the west end of the San Fernando Valley where I worked for more than 20 years I could look forward to temperatures above 90° F (32° C). On a good day it might reach 105° F (40.5° C) — 110 was unusual but not unheard of (43.3° C). I went out walking on my lunch break on most of those days at a brisk pace, just for the exercise.

    Poor Tasmania! How will they ever survive down there? The UN should immediately mobilize its vast network of relief organizations and have air conditioners shipped to every affected household. That would be a straight forward solution to this terrible danger.

    But wait, the UN only complains, it never ships relief to anyone. Remind me to tell you about their effort after the Indonesian coast was almost destroyed by a tsunami if you don’t believe me.

    40

    • #
      Roy Hogue

      I really hate to use derision like this. But what sound argument or facts have not already been used to no avail? None. Nothing is left to us but ridicule and contempt.

      And they will not be moved by that either.

      71

      • #
        Sceptical Sam

        Ridicule, satire and emotional pull is what will eventually win the day.

        Oh, and the hip-pocket nerve. :-)

        20

  • #
    AndyG55

    I have older relatives down there.

    This will reduce their heating bills ! :-)

    60

  • #
    Robber

    Don’t ignore us heat stricken Melbournians. If I can believe BOM maximums, 33.0 last Monday, 33.9 Tues, 31.4 Wed, and this week 30.8 Mon, 32.4 Tues, 32 Wed, 32 Thur, 31 Fri.
    And we pay for it. Current wholesale spot price for electricity in Vic $128/MWhr, and fortunately the wind is blowing strongly in SA so they are kindly sending us max power of 625 MW on the interconectors. Spot price in SA $90. And NSW is helping us cope by sending Vic 440 MW as a pass through of some of the 1130 MW coming from Qld. But Vic is helping Tas cope with the heat by sending 200 MW their way.
    Vic price for Nov month to date per AEMO $89.64/MWhr. Must be freezing up in Qld, average price $65 – oh wait, they still use coal.

    50

  • #
    Stephen Robinson

    Do they not have any Echidnas in Northern territories? If they do, do they all live in peoples gardens/ dogs water bowls?

    50

    • #
      David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

      Afternoon Stephen,
      I’ve seen echidnas here, and been close enough to get photos (of only moderate quality). My house is at about 35 degrees south. I’ve been surprised and delighted to find them here at all, but never investigated how much further north they’re found.
      A vague memory has me thinking they’re native to the SE of Oz, in which case the Darwin dogs needn’t worry about losing their drinking water.
      Cheers,
      Dave B

      20

      • #
        David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

        Wrong again,
        A Safari search showed they’re found all over Australia, so those Darwin dogs better watch their noses.
        Cheers,
        Dave B

        20

        • #
          ROM

          And when those echidnas get serious about not being found out, they just go straight down at speed.

          How the heck they can dig their way down so quickly without dirt flying everywhere to the point of them disappearing under the surface has me stumped.

          30

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    pat

    22 Nov: Bolt Blog HeraldSun: UNIVERSITY ENFORCES WARMIST GROUPTHINK: LEGAL ACTION AGAINST ACADEMIC
    Professor Peter Ridd faces the sack from James Cook University (LINK) for warning us not to trust alarmist predictions that global warming will destroy the Great Barrier Reef. What a terrible attack on academic freedom – and where are academics to protest?

    (excerpt) Outspoken James Cook Univer­sity professor Peter Ridd has taken Federal Court action claiming conflict of interest, apprehended bias and actual bias against vice-chancellor Sandra Harding.
    Professor Ridd wants JCU to drop a misconduct investigation launched following his interview with Alan Jones on Sky News on August 1 in which he criticised the quality of Great Barrier Reef science.

    In the interview, he said research findings by major institutions could not be trusted. “We can no longer trust the scientific organisations like the Australian Institute of Marine Science, even things like the ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies.

    “The science is coming out not properly checked, tested or replicated, and this is a great shame.”

    JCU responded in late August by launching a formal investigation for misconduct which could result in Professor Ridd’s employment being terminated….
    FROM COMMENTS:
    ScienceMichael: From Ridd’s page on the JCU website:
    “Peter Ridd raises almost all of his research funds from the profits of consultancy work which is usually associated with monitoring of marine dredging operation (http://www.jcu.edu.au/marinephysics/services/JCU_103139.html) . Work has recently been done at Hay Point and Abbot Point as well as at Barrow Island in Western Australia… Funds pay PhD scholarship and the staff of the MGL (usually around 7 scientists and engineers).”

    ScienceMichael: “What a terrible attack on academic freedom”, Andrew? What journalistic checks have you done on Professor Ridd’s Freedom from influence by, say, the coal industry?
    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/blogs/andrew-bolt/university-enforces-warmist-groupthink-legal-action-against-academic/news-story/a96ab9333852091044ab5fda13417c81

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    • #
      pat

      btw not sure if Bolt’s headline is accurate,

      UNIVERSITY ENFORCES WARMIST GROUPTHINK: LEGAL ACTION AGAINST ACADEMIC

      it is Ridd who is taking the legal action, it would seem.

      50

      • #
        Peter C

        Another Science skeptic punished and silenced?

        According to Graham Lloyd in the Australian today 22 Nov 2017).

        JCU is undertaking a misconduct investigation against Professor Peter Ridd because he was interviewed by Alan Jones on radio and told a few home truths about the state of Great Barrier Reef science as performed by scientists at the The Australian Institute of Marine Science and the ARC Centre of Excellence on Coral Reef Studies.

        Specifically he is reported as saying that these institutions cannot be trusted. “The science is coming out not properly checked, tested or replicated, and this is a great shame.”

        Also; “I think most of the scientists who are pushing this stuff – they genuinely believe that there are problems with the reef, I just don’t think they’re very objective about the science they do. I think they’re emotionally attached to their subject.”

        The misconduct investigation alleges that these comments constitute serious misconduct because there were not in the collegial and academic spirit of the search for knowledge, understanding and truth….his comments had denigrated the AIMS and the ARC Centre and were not respectful or courteous.

        I do not know why Ridd has to be respectful or courteous about his colleagues, especially if his comments are true and correct. However, rather than examine the veracity of his claims the JCU would rather silence him and likely dismiss him.

        Sounds to me as if the colleagues are squealing.

        Also best to keep the whole thing under wraps. Just to confirm that a JCU spokesman said “it is not appropriate to comment on confidential matters.”

        Ridd wants the investigation dropped and has taken action in the federal court claiming conflict of interest, apprehended bias (ie perception of bias) and actual bias by the JCU vice chancellor Sandra Harding who has a council position on the AIMS.

        JCU is also lawyering up. More to come I suspect.

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      • #

        Yes Ridd is being forced to fight back. Sadly!

        32

  • #
    Extreme Hiatus

    Incredible heat wave! So hot you can break an egg on the sidewalk!

    In other similarly relevant news, here we have just established the all time record high temperature for November 21, 2017.

    30

  • #
    Bulldust

    O/Topic: Interesting story highlighting how Elon Musk’s Tesla company is burning through US$8,000 per minute:

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/innovation/elon-musks-tesla-is-burning-through-10500-a-minute-as-model-3-problems-linger-20171121-gzq8p2.html

    That’s a little over US$4 billion a year … that’s a bigger deficit than most state budgets over here. Impressive.

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    Off Topic I know and sorry for that, but this has some merit to break in here.

    Are Hazelwwod’s chickens coming home to roost in Victoria?

    Yesterday, Victoria had a real increase in power consumption, and I mean plus 2500MW or so more than similar times in the previous weeks.

    Peak power consumption was around 4/4.30PM and was 7630MW.

    Of the existing 10 coal fired Units, three of them were offline, taking out around 1200MW of power.

    So coal fired power was generating 3400MW.

    Victoria was importing power from NSW, Tasmania, and also SouthAus.

    They also had EVERY gas fired plant on line, 21 of them, and some of those plants only make 20MW or so. All up gas fired power was making 2300MW so fossil fuel was supplying 5700MW, so they needed almost 2000MW from wind and Interstate

    Hazelwood would have been able to supply around 1400MW, so with that gone plus the down Units, there’s 2600MW, enough insurance to cover this spike.
    Because all those gas fired units were running, power cost spiked in Victoria, not just the normal straight up and then back down spike, but above $200/MWH for five hours with a peak of $290/MWH.

    Thank heavens wind power was above average.

    Seriously, I don’t think it will take too much this Summer to drive Victoria into load shedding, if this is any indicator. This will hurt.

    Tony.

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    • #
      Robber

      AEMO declares a Forecast LOR1 condition under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the Vic region for the following period: From 1530 hrs on 23/11/2017 to 1700 hrs on 23/11/2017.
      The contingency capacity reserve required is 1095 MW.
      The minimum reserve available is 936 MW.

      AEMO declares a Forecast LOR1 condition under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the Vic region for the following period: From 1530 hrs to 1700 hrs on 24/11/2017.
      The contingency capacity reserve required is 1154 MW.
      The minimum reserve available is 1095 MW.

      LOR1. When, for the nominated period, AEMO considers there are insufficient short-term capacity reserves available. This capacity must be sufficient to provide complete replacement of the contingency capacity reserve when a critical single credible contingency event occurs in the nominated period.
      LOR2. When AEMO considers that the occurrence of a critical single credible contingency event is likely to require involuntary load shedding.
      LOR3. When AEMO considers that customer load (other than ancillary services or contracted interruptible loads) would be, or is actually being, interrupted automatically or manually in order to maintain or restore the security of the power system.

      And it’s not even summer yet. Forecasts of 32 degrees for Melbourne Thurs/Fri with light winds in the afternoon, and only 26 in Adelaide.

      30

  • #
    pat

    ABC is ramping up the anti-Adani Carmichael coal mine talk:

    PickeringPost comments:
    ThePhantom Wed 22 Nov 2017 08:57:05 am
    ABC Brisbane radio has just given one of their reporters about 20 minutes of air time with a litany of woes against the Carmichael Coal Project. Yes ABC we get it, you don’t wont this country to be prosperous, you don’t wont Aussies to get jobs, you are an outlet for the Greens, but FFS you are supposed to provide balance…

    ThePhantom Wed 22 Nov 2017 09:25:45 am
    They are now giving a call up listener air time. This idiot is saying that he accepts that the Greens policies are a fiscal basket case but better this then destroy the planet. This is the mentality of the gene pool we have or at least the mentality of ABC that allows this comment to be broadcast with no challenge.

    PRESUMABLY THE ABOVE REFERS TO THE STEVE AUSTIN PROGRAM. AUSTIN TWEETED THE GRAHAM READFEARN DESMOG ARTICLE BELOW AND THEN RE-TWEETED READFEARN :

    Twitter: Steve Austin, ABC Morning program
    (Broadcaster & journalist I dislike a smug narcissistic tone. I love flawed people. Retweets are not endorsements. Trying to be better than I am)
    Steve Austin retweeted 2hr ago:
    Graham Readfearn:
    Replying to @SteveAustinABC @Qldaah
    No and no, Steve, and it goes downhill from there.
    (LINK TO DESMOG/READFEARN)
    https://twitter.com/steveaustinabc?lang=en

    21 Nov: DesmogBlog: Graham Readfearn: The Climate Science Denial Promoters Behind Queensland’s Energy Scare Election Headlines
    In the final week before an election, the biggest-selling newspaper in the Australian state of Queensland screamed a front-page headline that cut into one of the poll’s most divisive issues.
    “Nervous Energy” read the headline, claiming an “Exclusive” on a “Dire warning of power station closures, blackout.”…

    The report was from the Australian Institute for Progress (AiP) and provided a perfect echo of the center-right Liberal National Party’s (LNP) warnings to prospective voters in the state poll. But this is not surprising, when you learn who is behind the AiP…
    Pavetto ran in the Federal Queensland seat of Kennedy against Bob Katter in the 2016 election. But the AiP’s links to the LNP go far deeper than that. The “institute” is stacked with current and former senior Liberal National Party members.
    What’s more, the same institute has heavily promoted the rejection of the science linking fossil fuel burning to dangerous climate change…
    An AEMO spokesperson told me: “To date AEMO has not modeled a 50 percent renewable energy target in Queensland in our 2016 NTNDP or any other reports.”

    Institute Pushes Climate Science Denial
    Soon after launching in 2014, the AiP hosted Canada-based climate science denier Patrick Moore, who claims there is no evidence that human emissions of CO2 are warming the planet — a position at odds with all the world’s major scientific institutions.
    In July 2017, the AiP hosted a Brisbane screening of Climate Hustle — a film produced by the Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow (CFACT), a U.S.-based climate science denial group.
    Several climate scientists reviewed the film for DeSmog and described it as “muddled,” “misleading,” and “the usual rubbish from the usual suspects.”
    The AiP was also a “founding think tank partner” of the October 2017 LibertyFest conference in Brisbane that featured two prominent climate science deniers…

    The LNP has pushed for the building of more coal-fired power stations while backing to the hilt the Adani project.
    Palaszczuk has said if the Federal government’s Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility approves a $900 million taxpayer loan to Adani, she will block it. Numerous polls have shown that taxpayer support for the mine is deeply unpopular across the state…
    https://www.desmogblog.com/2017/11/21/climate-science-denial-promoters-queensland-energy-scare-election-headlines
    https://twitter.com/steveaustinabc?lang=en

    20

  • #
    pat

    ABC repeatedly state it WILL cost Australian jobs:

    22 Nov: ABC: Stephen Long: China will finance Adani mine, insiders say, but it ***will cost Australian jobs
    The Adani Group is close to securing finance for its controversial coal mine and railway project in outback Queensland, with an announcement expected in coming weeks that Chinese state-owned enterprises, banks, and export credit agencies are backing the venture.
    Australian taxpayers may be let off the hook under the deal, which could mean Adani no longer requires an Australian Government-subsidised loan of up to $1 billion for the railway it needs to transport the coal to port.
    But China’s money ***will come at the cost of local jobs…

    If China does back the Adani mine, it ***could seriously undermine another Chinese investment — the 50 per cent stake in the Port of Newcastle held by China Merchants Group, a large, Chinese state-owned corporation…

    Support for a massive new coal mine — with a licensed capacity of 60 million tonnes a year — would also run counter to the China’s rhetoric on climate change.

    At the recent international climate change talks in Bonn, China has been keen to present itself as a global leader on efforts to limit carbon dioxide emissions to keep global temperature rises to less than 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels…READ ALL
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-22/china-will-finance-adani-mine-insiders-say/9177470

    Murdoch’s Sky repeats the ABC allegations, but says ***COULD be at the cost of Aussie jobs (according to ABC, of course). includes Ben Oquist interview of six days ago. Sky also misleads on One Nation, which supports the mine, but wants Govt to fund the rail line in full so it belongs to Australians:

    22 Nov: news.com.au: Tracey Ferrier: Adani’s Carmichael mine may be funded by Chinese company
    VIDEO: 5mins07secs: 15 Nov: Sky News: David Speers interviews Ben Oquist: Adani loan unpopular with Queenslanders: (The Australian Institute/ReachTel) Poll

    ADANI is reportedly close to getting finance from China for its Queensland coal mine but it ***could be at the cost of Aussie jobs.
    An unnamed director of Adani Mining has told industry figures the company has secured Chinese funding for the Carmichael mine and associated rail line, the ABC says…
    A formal announcement about the financing deal is said to be imminent, but the ABC reports that reliance on funds from Chinese enterprises and export credit agencies ****could cost Australia jobs associated with the project…
    One Nation, which could hold the balance of power after Saturday’s poll, has warned the LNP will not get its support unless it also promises to veto the loan.
    “Would rejecting a taxpayer loan to Adani be a condition of your support to form government?” 2GB broadcaster Alan Jones asked One Nation’s Queensland leader Steve Dickson on Tuesday.
    “Absolutely. Absolutely 100 per cent. We want that money spent for the sake of Queenslanders and Australians alone and nobody else, ever.”…
    http://www.news.com.au/finance/business/mining/adanis-carmichael-mine-may-be-funded-by-chinese-company/news-story/b284cfcd29857a80701fdcb44631a6de

    20

  • #
    pat

    meanwhile -

    22 Nov: AFR: Mark Ludlow: Annastacia Palaszczuk tells Adani: ‘Just build it’
    Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk has called on Indian company Adani to “get on with it” and build its controversial $16.5 billion Carmichael mine rather than wait around for potential federal taxpayer funding.
    In a significant hardening of her stance on the Adani mine and rail project, which has dominated the state election campaign, Ms Palaszczuk said the waiting around for financial close on the mega-mine had gone on too long.
    “They have the green light to go ahead, they have always said it can independently stack up, so they should get on ahead and deal with it,” Ms Palaszczuk said in an interview with The Australian Financial Review on the campaign trail in Rockhampton.
    “We are a resource-rich state. They can just get on with it and do it. There’s other companies that are doing it.”…

    With only days to polling day, the Premier denied her position on Adani – including an eleventh-hour decision to veto a federal loan for the mine to help shore up its Green preferences in key seats in Brisbane – would damage Labor’s chance at the ballot box on Saturday…
    http://www.afr.com/news/politics/just-build-it-annastacia-palaszczuk-tells-adani-20171120-gzpg7o

    22 Nov: Townsville Bulletin: Andrew Backhouse: Anti-Adani protesters vow continuous action
    ANTI Adani protesters have stepped up their militant action in Townsville against the Indian mining giant and one activist has made an ominous vow.
    “We won’t stop doing this until the mine is stopped,” an activist said during a heated protest this morning.
    Seventeen protesters descended on the company’s South Townsville building today and blocked access to the office on level eight.
    Employees were unable to access their workplace and police were called the scene about 7.30am…

    Police issued a move-on direction and the majority of activists left the building peacefully…
    Three who had locked themselves together remained in the office and were arrested by police…
    The bulk of the activists then moved on to Flinders St where they disrupted an LNP media conference relating to the upcoming Queensland election…
    The Bulletin understands Adani will ramp up security at the Telstra building in an attempt to thwart future protests by the activists…
    CHECK THE COMMENTS
    http://www.townsvillebulletin.com.au/news/antiadani-protesters-vow-continuous-action/news-story/1d3b772e5989c83754d7b4d4e7feae59

    21 Nov: Brisbane Times: Toby Crockford: Anti-Adani protesters defy council, police in last-ditch action before election
    More than 200 anti-Adani activists have defied council and police by gathering in the heart of Brisbane for a last-ditch protest just days before the Queensland election.
    Organisers hinted there could be mass arrests on Tuesday evening after Brisbane City Council and the Queensland Police Service refused to issue permits for the action, but despite a strong police presence, no arrests were made…
    Ely’s songs weren’t the only musical feature of the protest, with Greens councillor Jonathan Sri treating the crowd to a rap performance.
    “What more is left to say about global warming?” Councillor Sri sang.
    “What more to say about the puppeteer politicians and CEO warlords who would choose numbers in a bank account over the security and safety of literally billions of people?
    “Coal is a dangerously addictive substance. They want to dig it up and sell it. Dig it up and burn it.
    “Dig it up and turn it into profit and we never seem to learn.”…

    Cr Sri also asked protesters to take pictures from the rally and post them onto social media in order to generate discussion about the Adani proposal in the days before voters head to the polls…
    “No one wants the coal, the business model’s all wrong,” he sang.
    “And if the trucks start to roll, you better bet we’re locking on.
    “There are thousands of us, our supporters number millions, we’re gonna mobilise, a whole army of civilians.
    “And if you don’t like it you might as well resign, ‘cos there’s no way we’ll ever let you build that mine, there’s no way we’ll ever let you build that mine.”
    https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/anti-adani-protesters-defy-council-police-in-last-ditch-action-before-election-20171121-p4yx57.html

    40

  • #
    pat

    ostensibly, an LNP headline but, before u even get the headline, u get:

    PHOTO CAPTION: Biofuels and Water Supply Minister Mark Bailey (left), Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk, Clare Solar Farm project manager Wayne Staunton and ALP candidate for Burdekin Mike Brunker.

    anyone who can understand, or believe, any of the figures in the following deserves a prize.

    21 Nov: CoastBulletin: Paul Weston: Poll promises more than $1000 off bills as LNP turns election debate to cost of living
    THE LNP will today launch a poll offensive to convince Queenslanders they are going to be more than $1000 better off each year under fairer electricity pricing and reduced government fees…

    Labor and the LNP are playing the blame game after a pricing inquiry shows retail electricity prices for Queenslanders increased by 257 per cent since 2004-05…

    PHOTO CAPTION: Queensland Opposition Leader Tim Nicholls is seen at Team Group Engineering in Mackay during the Queensland Election campaign
    Mr Nicholls told the Bulletin: “We know that local families and small business owners are doing it tough under Annastacia Palaszczuk and Labor.
    “Annastacia Palaszczuk has been using electricity as a secret tax and it’s no wonder Queenslanders are experiencing record high electricity prices.”
    Mr Nicholls will confirm the LNP in Government would for consumers:
    * Reduce electricity by $780 over three years…

    Labor has documented the former Newman Government’s performance which saw a 45 per cent rise in electricity prices.
    The LNP claims wholesale prices rose 60 per cent under Ms Palaszczuk’s watch. They also claim that under the Bligh Government — in which Ms Palaszczuk was a minister — there was a 55 per cent increase locked in for network prices from 2010 to 2015…

    PHOTO CAPTION: Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk at Toonpan, 30km south east of Townsville where the new pipeline from the Burdekin Falls Dam to Ross River Dam will be built.
    The Labor Government told state-owned power generator Stanwell to cut profits this year after reaping $378 million in dividends.
    The LNP is promising to scrap Labor’s 50 per cent renewable energy target saving households $220 a week from 2020…READ ALL
    http://www.goldcoastbulletin.com.au/news/queensland-state-election-2015/poll-promises-more-than-1000-off-bills-as-lnp-turns-election-debate-to-cost-of-living/news-story/0a1101804939678029ba498806414fd9

    BTW I WOULDN’T BE SURPRISED IF LONG-TIME LNP VOTERS WHO HAVE BEEN ENJOYING THE BENEFITS OF TAXPAYER-SUBSIDISED SOLAR PANELS ON THEIR ROOFS VOTED FOR LABOR, IF NOT GREENS, ON SATURDAY.

    20

  • #
    Bruce

    aka Sunray
    Thank you Jo, it is amazing how effective indoctrination can be over 2 or 3 decades. I wonder if the “records” are of the “homogenized” kind? I will check with the IPA over the next few days to see what mendacity they can uncover.

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    • #
      robert rosicka

      Which would be a measure of what twotter?

      35

      • #
        Sceptical Sam

        It would be a measure of Twinotter’s cherry-picking ability. Nothing else.

        On the other hand, if we have a look at Bushy Park (095003) we can see the cyclical nature of the Tasmanian weather.

        http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_display_type=dataGraph&p_stn_num=095003&p_nccObsCode=36&p_month=13

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        • #
          Harry Twinotter

          Sceptical Sam

          Do you realise you posted a temperature graph that is consistent with Global Warming?

          Better watch JooNova and her mood watch dogs will be snapping at your heels. Or you might even get comment-bombed by Andy-Pandy himself!

          16

          • #
            BruceC

            Just a heads-up Harry, the unadjusted UHCN data shows a mean max temp of 18.4C for Hobart in 1895. ;)

            61

          • #
            robert rosicka

            Twotter wrote –

            “Do you realise you posted a temperature graph that is consistent with Global Warming?

            “Better watch JooNova and her mood watch dogs will be snapping at your heels. Or you might even get comment-bombed by Andy-Pandy himself!”

            So twit you can prove globull warming can you ? Best get of to the UN and NASA mate and show them your work because they haven’t been able to prove it yet after 30 years of trying .

            Not sure why the insult about the host but we are free to say anything about the subject matter of the thread and if we went to one of your watermelon sites and behaved like you we would be moderated and banned .
            Pull your head in troll you know exactly what you’re doing and unlucky for you we call out BS where we see it .

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            • #
              Harry Twinotter

              Yeah what ever. I will wait for your paper published in the peer-reviewed scientific literature on why the majority of climate scientists have got it wrong.

              Meanwhile, look up the “Dunning-Kruger Effect”.

              01

          • #
            Peter C

            Harry makes an interesting point.

            Apparent warming at Bushy Park is >1C since 1930. That goes against other observations which suggest little or No Change in the Southern Hemisphere over that period.

            Why is Bushy Park special?

            I had a look at Google Earth but did not identify the BOM station.

            50

          • #
            Sceptical Sam

            Twinotter,

            Now come on. Grow up.

            When did I ever say that there has not been some global warming? When did Jo?

            I’ve always been prepared to accept the IPCC’s estimate of the 100-year linear trend (1906-2005) of 0.74 C° (0.56 C° to 0.92 C°); just as the IPCC has been prepared to accept that there was no warming during what it calls “the Hiatus”.

            That slight 0.74 C° increase is easily explained by the fact that the Earth was coming out of a (little) ice age. The IPCC and climate “science” is yet to show the proof that it was predominately caused by man-made CO2. The CAGW hypothesis is nothing more than a bald assertion at the moment – and has been since the 1980s, when it became part of the green-left ideology.

            If you have the proof please present it here.

            52

            • #
              Harry Twinotter

              Sceptical Sam.

              Oh I could give you a ton of evidence, but you would never accept it. Or claim that it has been doctored or what ever it is the deniers think to amuse themselves.

              I think there are temperature records after 2005. The latest IPCC report came out in 2013, you might want to read it sometime.

              Can’t say the IPCC ever said there has been no warming. But if you can tell me the IPCC AR5 report section number, I can go check. It’s a large document.

              I laugh when people try to associate me with the Greens (guilt by association). I can’t stand the Greens, they produce some of the worst pseudoscience I have seen.

              10

              • #
                Sceptical Sam

                I can’t stand the Greens, they produce some of the worst pseudoscience I have seen.

                For a cherry-picker like you that really takes the cake.

                02

              • #
                Sceptical Sam

                Oh I could give you a ton of evidence, but you would never accept it.

                Try us. Show us where man-made CO2 has been shown to be the predominant cause of the (slightly) increased global average temperature since the end of the little ice age. Causation, not some very weak correlation nonsense.

                Try us.

                02

              • #
                AndyG55

                “Oh I could give you a ton of evidence”

                You NEVER have.

                EMPTY !!!

                02

              • #
                Harry Twinotter

                “For a cherry-picker like you that really takes the cake.”

                Are you calling JoNova a cherry-picker? I used the reference she gave in her article.

                10

              • #
                Harry Twinotter

                Sceptical Sam.

                I really do not know why you bother, I really don’t. Go and read the report, and tell me where you think the climate scientists have got it wrong.

                I refer you to the IPCC AR5 report. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Fifth_Assessment_Report

                I summarize:

                “General
                Warming of the atmosphere and ocean system is unequivocal. Many of the associated impacts such as sea level change (among other metrics) have occurred since 1950 at rates unprecedented in the historical record.
                There is a clear human influence on the climate
                It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of observed warming since 1950, with the level of confidence having increased since the fourth report.
                IPCC pointed out that the longer we wait to reduce our emissions, the more expensive it will become.
                Historical climate metrics
                It is likely (with medium confidence) that 1983–2013 was the warmest 30-year period for 1400 years.
                It is virtually certain the upper ocean warmed from 1971 to 2010. This ocean warming accounts, with high confidence, for 90% of the energy accumulation between 1971 and 2010.
                It can be said with high confidence that the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have been losing mass in the last two decades and that Arctic sea ice and Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover have continued to decrease in extent.
                There is high confidence that the sea level rise since the middle of the 19th century has been larger than the mean sea level rise of the prior two millennia.
                Concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has increased to levels unprecedented on earth in 800,000 years.
                Total radiative forcing of the earth system, relative to 1750, is positive and the most significant driver is the increase in CO2′s atmospheric concentration.”

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          • #
            AndyG55

            Seems twooter doesn’t like being proven WRONG all the time. !

            Diddums. !!

            Australia, last 20 years.. show us the warming, twotter. !!

            Or are you talking local UHI effects ?

            https://s19.postimg.org/t849zahv7/Australia_20_years.png

            Certainly no warming trend in November

            https://s3.amazonaws.com/jo.nova/graph/temp/aust/tas/hobart-nov-maxes-m.gif

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            AndyG55

            Its great to know I am constantly on your mind, twooter. ! :-)

            12

        • #
          Harry Twinotter

          Peter C.

          I gave you an up tick. As much as trying to work out a trend from an individual station is boring, the annual data does show an upwards trend.

          The problem with individual stations is they are not really reference stations. Not telling what the location history for the station is. But sometimes the data is interesting.

          10

    • #
      BruceC

      Hey Harry Twotter, please explain this!!

      In the article above, the BoM makes this statement;

      If we make it to that stretch of six days above 25 degrees, that would be a record heat spell for November, and equal to the maximum heat spell for the Hobart area that we’ve ever seen.

      Seems the BoM is not interested in Feb 1895 ;)

      https://postimg.org/image/qge4ewc2b/

      Note: graph generated from RAW, unadjusted, unadulterated UHCN data … the same data that NOAA, GISS and BEST use for ‘global temperature’ ….. BEFORE adjustments.

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    • #
      AndyG55

      Just so people know the QUALITY of the site Twooter is going on about.

      It would have to be amongst the WORST sites in Australia.

      https://s19.postimg.org/esxd68pb7/Ellerslie_rd.png

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    TdeF

    Could the BOM just stop sensationalizing the weather? Look, I know it’s a boring job.

    Today in Melbourne is just perfect, the middle of a lovely warm week after a lot of rain, near tropical. It is not an evil portent of terror to come. It is not a disaster in the making. Yes, the pollen count is far too high but it is spring and we have spring weather as the major highs move South with the sun at midday over the Tropic of Cancer, not the equator.

    Still you see the cartoons of Australia covered in red as if the place is ablaze from Broome to Hobart. Some of it is understandable as the more passionate BOM spruikers try to sex up the news so people will talk to them at parties. The irrational upgrading of a cyclone by two categories just to make the news worse happened over a year ago. That was deliberate, inexcusable and unacceptable storm creation which did impact lives.

    As for tweaking up the temperature data, by deliberate act, homogenization or simply changing instruments without compensation is more subtle. The last thing we Australians need is a group of scientists who want to look after their friends overseas. The sheer cost of this deceit to ordinary Australians will one day be seen as actionable. Scientists must never change raw data. That is a primary rule of experimental science.

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      pat

      TdeF -

      read somewhere Ch9 was pushing similar to the following on morning TV. halfway through, but “unprecedented” says BoM:

      21 Nov: TheAge: Melbourne to swelter through longest November heatwave in 150 years
      by Melissa Cunningham
      The city has sweltered through its first taste of summer early this year, and if temperatures stay as high as predicted, it will be Melbourne’s first seven-day spell of temperatures higher than 28 degrees in November since official records began in 1862…

      Melbourne is halfway though its hot streak…

      The mercury hit 34 degrees on Tuesday and Melburnians are expected to toss and turn through another sticky night with the temperature not expected to drop below 22 degrees…
      Temperatures are expected to soar again on Wednesday, with a top of 32 degrees predicted and an overnight low of 21 degrees.
      It will be a hot and sticky 32 degrees again on Thursday, before the mercury hits 33 on Friday before a prediction of rain and some relief…

      ***Bureau of Metrology senior climatologist Dr Blair Trewin said the length of the pre-summer swelter was “unprecedented” for this time of the year…
      “It’s a very extended warm spell, normally in spring we do get the odd hot day, but what we are seeing right now is the type of warm spell which is more typical of late summer and early autumn,” he said.
      “It’s unprecedented for this time of the year. Melbourne has now had eight nights in a row above 15 degrees and it looks like those conditions will continue at least until the weekend.”
      Dr Trewin said the bureau predicted the warm spell could last for at least 13 nights in a row, setting a new record.
      “We’ve never previously had more than nine nights in a row with temperatures above 15 in November… never previously at any time of the year have we had [those kinds of temperatures] before before January,” he said…

      Dr Trewin said the only other time there had been such a significant heatwave in November was in 2009 when the city experienced temperatures of 32 degrees or more for five days
      http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/melbourne-to-swelter-through-longest-november-heatwave-in-150-years-20171121-gzpwu1.html

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    • #
      el gordo

      ‘…..as the major highs move South with the sun at midday over the Tropic of Cancer, not the equator.’

      You may have missed my lecture on the collapse of the subtropical ridge, allowing low pressure to dominate and ‘highs’ to block, this is a SH cooling signal.

      50

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    pat

    ???lovely and cool today just south of Brisbane!

    21 Nov: 9News: Melbourne sweating through one of its hottest weeks in 155 years as nation swelters
    Melbourne residents may want to stay poolside this week, with the city on track to experience one of its longest and hottest November streaks in 155 years.
    The city is half-way through a sweltering week and things are not expected to let up until at least Sunday.
    Currently the mercury is sitting at 32C in the CBD, after remaining above 18C overnight

    Tweet: Bureau of Meteorology Victoria: #Melbourne has had 8 nights in excess of 15°C. Forecast is for the warm conditions to continue for at least another 6 nights. Likely to be a November record. Check forecast at http://www.bom.gov.au/places/vic/melbourne/forecast/ … (LINK)

    If temperatures remain on their current trajectory through to Saturday, the city will have suffered through its first seven-day November spell of 28C or hotter in 155 years of records…
    “It’s going to be quite warm through Friday and then there’s going to be a cold change through Saturday,” Weatherzone meteorologist Rob Sharpe told 9news.com.au.
    “The low pressure trough on Saturday is going to bring some showers, it’ll be a little bit cooler on Sunday and Monday, but it’s a little bit warmer than is average for this time of year.”…

    Mr Sharpe confirmed the average temperature for November in Melbourne was 22C.
    Adelaide is also going through a hot spell. The city suffered through a very warm night, and there is no relief in sight today…

    If the temperature remains above 24C again tonight, it will be the city’s longest spell of warm spring nights in 30 years…

    But those aren’t the only regions feeling the heat.

    Sydney is expecting a maximum of 23C today but will warm up a little toward the weekend, with a maximum of 28C predicted on Saturday, and 27C on Sunday and Monday (albeit with a few showers expected).

    ???Brisbane is warming up just in time for summer, with the temperature moving between 25C and 28C all week long, but with showers expected all the way into next Monday.

    Things are also heating up in Perth where the mercury is predicted to mostly remain above 30C this week…

    In Canberra it’s expected to warm up by Friday when the mercury will rise to 28, and remain in the high 20s until next week…
    After a string of days with a maximum temperature of 29C, Hobart is predicted to be hit with showers and temperatures in the low 20s from Friday and over the weekend.
    https://www.9news.com.au/national/2017/11/21/10/55/melbourne-sweating-through-one-of-its-hottest-weeks-in-155-years-as-nation-swelters

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    pat

    glad I don’t watch TV, except for cricket and tennis:

    VIDEO: 22 Nov: 9News: Melbourne hits 32C as scorching hot week continues
    At 1.30pm the temperature was 32.2 degrees in the CBD, after remaining above 19 overnight.
    If temperatures continue, Melbourne will break records for the first seven-day November spell of 28 degrees or hotter since official records began, 155 years ago.
    That record could even extend to eight days, with temperatures forecast to hit 28 degrees on Saturday…

    People determined to get their exercise for the day out of the way were gathering since sunrise with their pets at St Kilda Beach.
    “Yeah, I don’t know, (my dog’s) just being really lethargic. That’s why I’m up this early, I’m not normally up this early. But otherwise, he won’t come,” one woman told 9NEWS.
    “Every day, out early in the morning, go home, stay indoors, back out in the evening,” is how another woman is getting through the hot weather…

    Senior Weatherzone meteorologist Rob Sharpe has nevertheless warned that city-slickers may find themselves braving even steeper temperatures.
    “People will notice very different temperatures depending on where they are, according to the local microclimate,” he told 9news.com.au.
    “Parts of the city are going to feel much hotter than 32 degrees – for example on the middle of the road in the middle of the day.”
    Other parts of the state won’t escape the heat, with temperatures of 32 and 33 degrees anticipated for Ararat and Bendigo.

    Tasmania is expected to see significantly warm temperatures in the coming days, with the expected forecast pointing to six days in a row of 25 degrees or above – a record heat spell for November…
    A shower is expected for Sydney and Brisbane, which will hit a maximum of 24 and 25 today respectively.
    Adelaide will see a late shower and a top of 34, while a mostly sunny Canberra will hit 26, up from a low of 8…

    Meanwhile, the Bureau of Meteorology has raised the outlook status of La Niña from “watch” to “alert”. There is now a 70 percent chance of the weather system affecting Australia, up from last month’s 50 percent estimate.
    A La Niña weather pattern typically brings about heavy rainfall and flooding to eastern Australia. It can also trigger cyclones.
    https://www.9news.com.au/national/2017/11/22/07/26/melbourne-to-sweat-through-another-32-degree-scorcher

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    And yet in the Sunshine Coast here in SE Qld (Woombye) we have had 3 weeks of cool tempatures about 3 to 5 degrees cooler than the average temperature. Blankets still at night. Is that too man made global warming? Will the ABC report that as well.

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      Annie

      No, of course not…it doesn’t go with their flow. We had a hard frost two and a half weeks ago and then it warmed up…it’s weather.

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    ScotsmanInUtah

    Electric Aeroplanes – CNN article

    off topic and appologies are necessary

    http://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/electric-aircraft/index.html

    CNN recently published this article on what it thinks will be a practicable alternative to current fossil fuel driven aircraft.

    In the fight against Global warming CNN are at the forefront of realism :o

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    ROM

    .
    A commercially built and readily available Schemp Hirth Self-launching (electrically driven) Gliders

    And the even earlier developed 13.5 metre sailplane;

    Silent 2 Electro

    Plus most other major world sailplane manufacturers have moved to providing an electric retractable propeller driven alternative to the use of the normal engine driven propeller self launching sailplane, some with a limited ability to use a low powered “sustainer cruise ” mode on their retractable prop systems to get oneself home if you have miscalculated or when the lift packs up and you are still tens of kilometres outside of your final glide distance to your home base.

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      Peter C

      All very well ROM.

      Except for the purchase price. And then there are the battery fires which have grounded all the electric sustainer gliders for the time being.
      https://publicapps.caa.co.uk/docs/33/20170906EASAAD20170167E.pdf

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        ROM

        Been out of the gliding game a bit long now Peter, about 5 years, so I missed that one.

        And they have had close to a dozen years of electric launching to sort out the major battery problems but still came unstuck.

        But it does illustrate or suggest that these new Electric Vehicles that are the current raging fashion for the future and will “save the planet” are going to come seriously unstuck with battery problems sometime, somewhere as fires or worse, explosions due to all sorts of unthought of factors come to the fore with the increased number of pushed through, fast development designs to compete appear on the road scene. ie ; metal pieces on roads have already penetrated through the armoured Aluminium that Teslas use as battery containment floor protection and got a couple of good fires going in the Tesla battery compartment leading to a total loss.

        Tesla is re-programming their vehicles to raise them a bit higher off the road when under way and are strengthing the armoured aluminum floor under the battery compartment, all of which adds weight and reduces performance.

        And as a poster above suggested and I have also, some wealthy wacko in his new Tesla or some other you beaut EV is going to try and get home through half a metre or more of flood waters which sloshing round in its water proof battery compartment under the floor in the compartment which is at least waterproof from the bottom up , is going to fire up all sorts of spectacular flashing and banging as those batteries and/ or their connections short out.

        As the EV and battery manufacturers keep pushing up against the limits of the technology, sooner or later the unpredicted Black Swan battery event will suddenly explode onto the scene possibly quite literally, just like that Samsung mobile phone model and the Boeing 737 lithium battery fires.

        And then somebody will find those shares they thought were close to gold in value are not worth more than a teaspoon full of electrolyte.

        The advantage that we here in Australia now have is that thanks to our Glorious and ever forward thinking Politicians and their carefully held brown paper bags with the green Wind Turbine and Solar and Union logos on them in all parties and at all levels, we are likely to have a serious enough shortage of power that might mean we won’t even be able to even run our households leading to a situation where we will not have enough power left over to charge the batteries of the EV’s after they have been driven off the ship.

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    robert rosicka

    The weather we are currently experiencing is unprecedented .

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-22/hot-summer-outlook-provokes-bushfire-danger-update/9179780

    And also a mention that heatwaves have a La Niña connection so does that mean Co2 is off the hook .

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    JustAnOldGuy

    Damn! I thought you Australians were made of sterner stuff. Try to stay in the shade, plenty of liquids, minimize strenuous activities -for example prefer pull tabs over screw caps on your beer, and shift your most active hours to the periods just before dawn and just after sunset. I’m sure some of the weaker ones will fall by the wayside but the winnowing will leave a hardier population behind.

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    pat

    21 Nov: Daily Mail: Green levies ‘will add £200 to energy bills’: Company says measures should be paid for through general taxation
    British Gas estimates bill for average customer will increase by £200 next year
    Company says this is down to government scheme to shift to renewable energy
    Boss Ian Conn has called for the switch to be paid for out of general taxation
    By Sean Poulter
    The proposals were outlined by Ian Conn, the boss of parent company, Centrica, who is calling for fundamental changes to bills…
    The cost of Government schemes to support a shift away from fossil fuels and boost household energy efficiency is highly contentious.
    There is a cost in subsidising the building of new wind farms and solar installations, which are guaranteed high prices for their electricity.
    At the same time, energy firms must pay a minimum price for power produced from coal and gas, even if the market price is lower.
    Also, companies are required to help poor and vulnerable customers with, for example, free or cheap loft insulation, double-glazing and new boilers…

    The Committee on Climate Change (CCC), which was set up the Government to provide independent advice, estimated these various schemes would add £140 to annual household bills in 2017, rising to £174 by 2020 and £205 by 2030…
    Mr Conn said: ‘I recognise this isn’t easy, but the cost of renewable policies on everyone’s bills, and of the Government subsidies and incentive schemes, has now reached over £5billion a year…
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5102293/Green-levies-add-200-energy-bills-year.html
    21 Nov: CityAM: Diane James: COP23 cop out: The EU leaders forgo the chance to take meaningful climate action
    (Diane James is an independent MEP)
    First, there was the acknowledgment that attempts to turn the EU away from fossil fuels have failed.
    Germany’s state secretary for the environment confirmed that reforms to the system of carbon credit trading (the basis of the EU’s climate action) were insufficiently robust to incentivise a switching to cleaner fuels and renewables.
    Nor does the future of the carbon trading system look positive. The EU has taken a step backwards and entered into talks to link its carbon market to those of California and China, meaning that EU power and industrial firms will be able to import carbon credits from both California and China.
    Prices in the EU system are currently flat, languishing around €7.4 per credit, which is down around 80 per cent from their highs because of an oversupply of credits in the market…
    This will mean that Chinese industrials and power companies will be able to export their carbon credits to the EU for cash, creating another extended period of low prices, which will subsidise fossil fuel consumption in the EU and hand China billions in subsidies…READ ON
    http://www.cityam.com/276114/cop23-cop-out-eu-leaders-forgo-chance-take-meaningful

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    pat

    21 Nov: WaPo: Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris agreement means other countries will spend less to fight climate change
    By Johannes Urpelainen
    (Johannes Urpelainen is the Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Professor of Energy, Resources and Environment at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. He is also the founding director of the Initiative for Sustainable Energy Policy – ISEP)
    While U.S. noncooperation shouldn’t deter other countries from pledging climate action, my recent research (LINK) with Thijs Van de Graaf (LINK) shows that it threatens industrialized countries’ promises of climate finance for mitigation and adaptation in poorer countries…

    If the United States refuses to finance climate mitigation and adaptation in developing countries, then industrialized countries will have a hard time keeping their promise to offer $100 billion in climate finance every year from 2020.
    These funds would support renewable energy, energy efficiency, forest conservation and other projects that reduce greenhouse gas emissions…

    In 2014, the United States offered about $2.7 billion in climate finance, a sum comparable with contributions from Germany and France. With the Trump administration refusing to contribute, other industrialized countries will face great difficulties in putting together enough funds.

    There’s a real risk that developing countries will no longer trust the governments of the industrialized world on climate issues. The broken promise could poison climate negotiations in the future.
    Besides spurring disagreement and bad faith in negotiations, a failure of climate finance would also threaten future pledges under the Paris agreement…
    The lack of U.S. climate finance leaves a wide gap, and other industrialized countries will have a difficult time convincing their citizens that they should step in…

    Japan, the European Union and others have the funds, but their willingness to pay for climate protection in uncertain economic times is far from clear. These issues will be prominent soon, as countries plan to review the state of climate finance in 2018…

    If China were to replace the industrialized countries as a climate finance leader, this would be yet another sign that the wealthier countries are not willing to step up and lead on climate. For now, China’s climate leadership remains uncertain, as the country remains dependent on coal despite rapid progress in clean-energy investment — and Beijing hesitates to commit to goals it might fail to achieve.

    Trump’s hostility to climate policy poses a threat to future climate cooperation because it threatens to break a promise that industrialized countries made together in the 2015 Paris talks. Other industrialized countries would reap lots of goodwill and long-term benefits from filling the gap, but it remains to be seen whether they are willing and able to put together the funds required.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/11/21/trumps-noncooperation-threatens-climate-finance-under-the-paris-agreement/?utm_term=.b607e524bc96

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    pat

    21 Nov: CBC: Analysis: Keystone XL clears final hurdle only to see more hurdles
    Pipeline still needs work to get across finish line, despite approval of route through Nebraska
    By Paul Haavardsrud
    Supposedly, the sound of bulldozers breaking ground would soon bring a giant sigh of relief from Canada’s energy industry, and from both Alberta Premier Rachel Notley and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who could both sell the pipe as evidence they really do care as much about industry as they do the environment…

    Still, some in the industry remain more optimistic. Of the three major projects on the books — Keystone XL, Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain expansion and Enbridge’s Line 3 replacement —Alex Pourbaix, the former second-in-command at TransCanada and new chief of the oilsands giant Cenovus, told reporters last week that he thinks at least two will get built. As for the third? He believes it will go as well, but feels that the experience of the last decade means a little hedging is only prudent…

    If a pipeline does go ahead — a possibility that now seems at least marginally more likely following Nebraska’s decision — the benefits to Canada’s oil industry are clear. A new export line would eliminate current transportation bottlenecks, shrink the discount that Western Canadian barrels fetch compared to world prices, and remove a constraint on potential production growth from the oilsands…

    “I don’t think that the Trudeau government has the luxury of saying, ‘the pressure’s off, let’s sit back and relax,’” said Kathryn Harrison, a political science professor at the University of British Columbia. “He’s talked about the importance of getting oil to market, not leaving oil in the ground. There will be pressure on the federal government to defend its approval of the project.”…
    http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/keystone-nebraska-regulatory-approval-1.4411452

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    Ted O’Brien.

    That Nov mean max chart is very strange, strongly suggestive of environmental changes. Do the charts for other months follow a similar pattern? Are the data as read?

    Whatever happened there in the mid 1940s? Looks like somebody hung his hat on it for fifteen years or so. And that’s not the only apparent irregularity.

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    Curious George

    Beware of Global Warming! We will have record high temperature for a single day somewhere, a record high temperature for two days in a row somewhere else .. possibilities are innumerable.

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    Rob Scanlan

    We here in coastal Central Qld have just had the coldest October and November maxima in the past 6 decades to my knowledge, bearing in mind that my brain has not been homogenized.

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    Robber

    The regulators are coming. I have a registered smart meter that records hourly consumption to the network operator in Victoria. In trying to switch suppliers to get a better price, I have been informed by two retailers that I must switch to time of day pricing – peak/off peak, with off peak prices about half of peak. Peak is 7am-11pm Monday to Friday, the rest is off peak. Yet government insists that flexible pricing is optional. I am trying to get clarification from the multitude of regulators.

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