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Forget extreme temperatures: Nothing kills as many people as moderate cold

Some are scoffing at the idea that rising heating costs will kill people. But check out the number-one temperature-killer in 74 million deaths across 13 countries. It’s not the extremes that we need to worry about, the deadly phrase is “mildly suboptimal temperatures”. Look at the blue finger of death in the graph below, starkly showing how irrelevant “extreme heat”, or any other ambient temperature zone, is.

Do you need an excuse to turn the heater on in winter? Low ambient room temperatures will thicken your blood.

Moderate cold accounted for as many as 6.6% of all deaths. Extreme temperatures (either cold or hot) were responsible for only 0·86%.

Join the dots — will we save more lives by:

a) making homes cold now in the hope that lower “carbon” emissions will,

b) mean less deaths from heat in 90 years time despite people probably having better access to heaters and air conditioners?

Would you sacrifice ten years of your life…

Death rates, mortality, international, room temperature, Lancet, graph.

Note the big killer “moderate cold”  |  Click to enlarge

Cold is more likely to kill you in Sydney than in Sweden

Check out the curves below. As a percentage of the population, there are more deaths in Sydney than in Bejing at 5C.

Australian houses are not designed to be warm. Sweden’s are.

Lancet, Graph, Death, Mortality. excess, country, ambient temperature, UK, USA, Australia, Korea, Canada, Sweden, Taiwan, Italy, BrazilJapan.

Figure 1 shows overall cumulative exposure-response curves (best linear unbiased predictions) for 13 cities selected to represent each country, with the corresponding minimum mortality temperature and the cutoff s to defi ne extreme temperatures. |. Click to enlarge

Blame house design, we Australians don’t take the cold seriously (read more about the flaws at this link).

Professor Adrian Barnett, a researcher based at the Queensland University of Technology, has studied death rates associated with abnormal weather conditions plus occupant access to heating and cooling, and has established a link to the quality of housing in Australia and a corresponding increase in death rates during cold spells.

Professor Barnett’s studies have concluded that Australia’s death rate due to cold weather, which at 6.5% is almost double that of Sweden’s at 3.9%, is almost entirely due to the poor quality to which we build our homes.

Swedish homes are designed and built to stay comfortable during all weather conditions, whereas comfort in Australian homes is often an afterthought, usually covered by an oversized air conditioner which continually battles poorly insulated walls, leaky doors and windows.  Australian homes are referred to as “glorified tents” due to this phenomenon, which particularly affects less affluent homeowners and of course, renters.

The internal temperatures of Federation or Queenslander style homes in winter often drop well below 17°C, while Swedish homes usually remain at a stable 22-23°C whatever the weather.  According to Barnett, “Many Australian homes are just glorified tents and we expose ourselves to far colder temperatures than the Scandinavians do.”

In the Energy + Illawarra program the University of Wollongong’s Sustainable Buildings Research Centre team recently identified surprisingly cold living conditions in 158 households across the Illawarra, Shoalhaven & Wingecarribee regions of NSW.  Researchers found that approximately half of all households studied were experiencing extended periods (>25% of the time) when the living room temperatures were well below 16°C.  In fact some houses did not exceed 14°C throughout a number of days, some occupants reported being too anxious to turn heating on due to the cost of energy and ‘bill anxiety’.

Save carbon emissions and raise your blood pressure

In the cold, the naked ape suffers from thickened blood, local inflammation, weakened immunity, bronchoconstriction:

 The biological processes that underlie cold-related mortality mainly have cardio vascular and respiratory effects. Exposure to cold has been associated with cardiovascular stress by aff ecting factors such as blood pressure and plasma fibrinogen, vasoconstriction and blood viscosity, and inflammatory responses. Similarly, cold induces bronchoconstriction and suppresses mucociliary defences and other immunological reactions, resulting in local inflammation and increased risk of respiratory infections. These physiological responses can persist for longer than those attributed to heat, and seem to produce mortality risks that follow a smooth, close-to-linear response, with most of the attributable risk occurring in moderately cold days.

 I wrote about this enormous study, on 74 million deaths across Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, UK & USA: Cold weather kills 20 times more than heat does. But the paper is now fully available with more detail, and hardly any politician seems to have got the message the first time around. Hence the revisit.

Please someone send this to Craig Kelly and the SMH.

The benefits we can derive,
From warming, helps keep us alive,
While our true foe is cold,
Killing both young and old,
Who with warming would otherwise thrive.

-  Ruairi

REFERENCE

Antonio Gasparrini et al.  (2015) Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature: a multicountry observational study. The Lancet, May 2015 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)62114-0Full PDF.

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72 comments to Forget extreme temperatures: Nothing kills as many people as moderate cold

  • #
    Reed Coray

    Join the dots — will we save more lives by:

    a) making homes cold now in the hope that lower “carbon” emissions will,

    b) mean less deaths from heat in 90 years time despite people probably having better access to heaters and air conditioners?

    When I join the dots the picture I get is a win/win for the greens. We save the earth in two ways: first we reduce all that nasty CO2 in the atmosphere; second, we reduce the population of the earth’s primary despoiler.

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    • #
      Lionell Griffith

      We save the earth in two ways: first we reduce all that nasty CO2 in the atmosphere; second, we reduce the population of the earth’s primary despoiler.

      You get one guess as to which payoff is the most desired by the green blob. Especially since every program they support, push, demand, and riot for always has the second outcome without any respect to the first. They do not mean us well. In fact, they intend not genocide but humanoscide with everyone else going first: equal opportunity death by whatever means necessary.

      As always, they are held to be more equal than others because they get to live off of others while their programs are implemented. Worse, they get to pretend they have only the most good, wise, and noble of intentions. All with the almost unanimous vocal support of the general media and politician or despot on earth.

      How, by any stretch of imagination, fantasy, or whim, can this be thought of as good, wise, and noble? It is, by the light of reason, the ultimate of evil beyond all evils that have befallen mankind in the past.

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      • #
        Reed Coray

        AMEN!

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      • #
        Leonard Lane

        Wonderful comment Lionell. You put so much information and meaning in just a dozen lines of text. I would love to see this expanded to a complete post.
        Thank you very much.

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        • #
          Lionell Griffith

          You are welcome.

          I do sometimes write longer comments. See for example the one on what I call a Smell Test or the one on Proper Method. However, I generally prefer the short, clear, and to the point comments similar to the one you referenced.

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      • #
        Yonniestone

        Carbon Reduction is Carbon Life Reduction of Humans make no mistake or undermine the intention, throughout history every type of totalitarian rule has used this practice mostly for the purpose of removing a percentage that could undermine their power, with the advent of modern free democracies especially the US republic model those that desire total control adopted the Malthusian scare tactic along with the faux environmental movement to gain control and eventually the dismantling of Western values.

        When the Roman army used Decimation it was an obedience mechanism to remind soldiers of what Rome was to them without a great loss of assets, the globalists view Decimation as whatever number they deem fit to succeed with the agenda of grabbing power that was never designed for them to have, they strive to be leaders using underhanded methods as deep down they know in an open society they could never compete with a well written constitution.

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      • #
        Ted O'Brien.

        Lionell, here in Australia with about ten per cent of the vote their policies dominate our agenda!

        We call this democracy. It’s in need of an overhaul.

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      • #
        Tom O

        No, they do NOT intend or desire the end of the race, only removing what they consider the unnecessary people. I’ve been saying all along that the use of hypothermia was the driving purpose behind “climate crisis.” And yes, a cold house is a fairly easy way to reduce population, thus the outright attack on energy. Just remember, intermittent energy would be most dangerous when you are heating, not cooling.

        The “greenies” have become the new master race, and they intend to rid the world of those that don’t fit their needs.

        00

  • #

    Here in Britain the onset of the first frosts of winter always causes a spike in the death rate, despite homes being reasonably well insulated.
    Having visited Southern Brazil a few times in winter, the temperatures are usually quite warm, with day-time temperatures of 30-40C and night-time over 20C. But when it drops to 5C outside it is not much warmer in the houses, as they are designed to stay cool. There might be a single heater – often a gas fire fed by a gas bottle – but this is insufficient to keep the house warm. It is almost like camping in the British winter.

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    • #
      RAH

      Are they dying in their houses or while outside of them?

      This former cold weather warrior thinks it has more to do with a lack of ability to adapt and preparation than a lack of adequate housing. People that know how to do it survive in shelters of ice and snow in sustained subzero F temps. They know they have to keep dry to stay healthy and survive in such conditions. They know they have to stay hydrated. They know the signs when their core temp is dropping and what to look for when extremities are getting too cold and what to do about it. They know that the amount of fat in their diet has to be increased to keep the bodies furnace fueled. They know to layer their clothes. They know that sugars and carbs will give you a short burst of heat and fats/proteins make the body work harder to digest and by doing so boost ones core temperature. etc, etc, etc.

      It’s just like winter driving. The first snow/ice always brings a rash of accidents until people relearn how to deal with the slick road conditions. Then after that the accident rate goes down even though conditions may be much worse. So it goes.

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      • #
        Rereke Whakaaro

        … it has more to do with a lack of ability to adapt …

        I agree.

        Singapore is not that far from the equator, so the climate remains much the same for the entire year, apart from having a rainy season and a less rainy season. But people have been known to die from exposure, when the nighttime temperature drops by five or ten degrees from the norm.

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      • #
        jorgekafkazar

        The first snow/ice always brings a rash of accidents until people relearn how to deal with the slick road conditions. Then after that the accident rate goes down even though conditions may be much worse.

        Dealing with slick roads is quite simple. Stay off them. Once people remember that concept, of course the accident rate goes down, regardless of the conditions.

        81

        • #
          RAH

          Quite often not a practical or realistic solution. Just as staying inside when it gets really cold or hot outside is often not practical. People have things to do and a living to make. In my case I have a truck to drive to make my living. In cold, snow, and ice when it gets so bad that I can’t sustain 45 mph on an interstate or the mirror heaters can’t keep up then it’s time to find a hole to park it in. Otherwise it’s drive on. I’ve got over a million safe miles behind me driving a big truck but there have certainly been times that my good fortune was not because of anything I did or did not do.

          81

          • #
            jorgekafkazar

            In slippery weather, the driving should be left, as much as possible, to you professionals. Yes, sometimes that’s not feasible.

            01

      • #
        Yonniestone

        RAH you’re correct about the health of the individual and the ability to adapt, I’ve spent most of my working life outdoors in all conditions and it wasn’t until my health declined that I eventually fell ill ending up in hospital with a collapsed lung, many factors can effect people as they age, depression, weight, alcohol, diet, stress etc.. that can easily bring about life threatening conditions.

        All the above however pales in comparison to the threat of fanaticism and the deluded fools that follow it to the end.

        80

  • #

    Architects first build clattery, draughty barns full of glass and hard surfaces. Then they come up with reasons why “open plan” – which omits all the good stuff like cavities, halls, alcoves, separate purpose rooms – is somehow “green”. Maybe it’s because there’s a glarey skylight to save turning on a light or something. Maybe the marble kitchen-top was brought from Italy in edible packaging…I dunno. Come the winter, come the summer, there’s always a reason why one has to suffer or a feeble but expensive “solution” offered.

    Thanks Mr Architect, but my ancestors have already done the Viking thing. I want individual privacy, group intimacy, insulation from noise, draught, heat, cold…in short, something you would know nothing about called civilization.

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    • #
      Geoffrey Williams

      Good blog Mosmo-I have always wondered at the sense (or lack of) in Australia of not using double glazing in homes. The improvement in both heat and sound insulation would be of huge benefit. The additional cost would be minimal and the inclusion should be mandatory in the building codes.
      Our housing construction here in Australia leaves much to be desired.
      GeoffW

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      • #

        Building costs are finely tuned; but poorly managed. (vis e.g. “site shrinkage” during construction)

        Double glazing is beyond the horizon of awareness of what seems to be the vast majority of Australians. As is a functional, basic understanding of energy and power; heating and cooling. Evident by the rate of successful hoodwinking.

        To illustrate, try to find out what RECs (or equivalent) are available for installing double glazing on the larger windows of a house. The construction codes require some sort of thermal performance target (in some States) but how that performance is met is a matter of architects/builders juggling numbers to achieve an acceptable result. It often turns out cheaper, on the bottom line, to slap a couple of kW of (subsidised) PV solar on the roof than to double-glaze the windows.

        Home ownership is also a political barrow in Australia. Making homes less affordable, even through sensible regulations, is not going to be popular and will doubtless require (further) government subsidies to offset.

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        • #
          Geoffrey Williams

          Thanks Bernd for a good explanation of some of the problems regarding the use of double glazing.
          GeoffW

          21

        • #

          Its not just double glazing. If you choose a proper inert gas between the glass sheets, and add some coating to the glass, you will drop the energy loss from 2.5 watts per sqare meter to 1 watt. If you add a third glass you come down to 0.6 W/m².

          Here in Germany the price of a one square meter triple glassed window starts from 100 €. Okay, some companies or clever salesmen sell them at prices five times as much.

          (We have a saying here in Germany: Each day three idiots are waking up. You just have to catch one of them.)

          00

      • #
        Asp

        If we are about to get serious about energy efficient housing, then use of aluminium window and door frames should be reviewed alongside using double glazing. Metals are good conductors and radiators of heat, whether into the house, or out of the house.

        01

  • #
    Roy Hogue

    According to one of my doctors dehydration in the hot weather is a serious danger to the elderly, an age group that I now fall into whether I want to or not. I’ts a subtle thing that can sneak up on you without your knowing it for a variety of reasons and few take effective action to avoid it or deal with it when it occurs. And it can cause death or serious health consequences if allowed to go on.

    I found a statistic with no source claiming that at any given time up to 75% of Americans are in a state of dehydration. I can’t vouch for that number and it seems rather extreme to me. But I can vouch for what my doctor told me, that the summer heat is not something I can play around with any longer, I should stay inside when it’s hot, run the air conditioning to maintain a comfortable shirtsleeves temperature and of course, drink the standard x number of glasses of water every day. So while we’re discussing the effects of moderate cold let’s not forget that at the extremes either way there is also danger.

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    • #
      Rereke Whakaaro

      You are not elderly, Roy.

      You are mature and well rounded. A bit like a cheese.

      I can’t comment on the piquancy of the aroma from this distance. ;-)

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    • #
      jorgekafkazar

      I found a statistic with no source claiming that at any given time up to 75% of Americans are in a state of dehydration.

      That is from a woo-woo medicine source and is utter, complete, total felgercarb. See the work of Dr. Heinz Valtin for good information on the topic.

      …the elderly, an age group that I now fall into…

      You’re not elderly until you’re at least seventy. I expect to get there in another decade or so; I’m currently only sixty-ten.

      60

      • #
        Roy Hogue

        Well then, only sixty-ten? You’ve an infinite space to get older in if you recon it that way considering the possibility of negative numbers, as in seventy-(-one) etc.

        For a few years I used to hold my annual 39th birthday party (a la Jack Benny). Of course my body wasn’t fooled by that or anything else I could do to put off aging or squeeze a little humor out of my age. So eventually you wake up each morning and say, “Today I’m alive and I’ll live the day as fully as I can. Tomorrow can wait for consideration until it’s actually here.”

        00

    • #

      This may be an obscure idea, but I think many older people dehydrate because they are wary of having to urinate frequently when out and about. My mother was like that. I think one good use of public money would be to increase the availability of public toilets. (As a non-right conservative I’m in favour of public conveniences and services which work well, things like underground rail, public loos, libraries, nappy stations etc. I just don’t like white elephants.)

      Years ago there were many pissoirs across France for men. The scant privacy meant that pissoirs were not good places for lurking, and many of them were designed for elegance (see “Clochemerle”). This did not help women directly, but at least it took the pressure off the more complete toilet facilities. Now one often has to become a cafe customer to get a key to its loo.

      Of course, Nanny, Big Feminism and the New Puritans would never permit the re-introduction of pissoirs. But at least we can spend more on loos so older people won’t have to think twice about that second cup of tea. I hear there are going to be lots of older people, so may as well get ready for them. Who knows? More public facilities might also make things better for young women with the babies we now lack.

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      • #
        Roy Hogue

        Would you believe a bar maybe 35 feet in length with a urinal running its full length at the floor level. In and out again without ever leaving your barstool. It’s now been rescued, rehabilitated and is in a restaurant in Santa Barbara, California. Of course there are now numerous laws and ordinances prohibiting its alternate use.

        I wonder how many drinks a man would need before he could go inside and be able to withstand the smell.

        10

        • #
          Roy Hogue

          I think that’s probably the ultimate achievement in public convenience.

          10

        • #

          Er, even for me that’s a bit…Never mind. I suppose it might make nanny and femo-ridden California great again.

          Something like this is about right. No leg cover, stand only, you can’t lurk, nothing to vandalise, but you can do the business:
          http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3441/3303450151_442716b74e_z.jpg
          Ventilation no prob.

          Environmentalism is about waste, fetishism and inconvenience. Conservation is about simplicity, thrift…and pissoirs.

          10

          • #
            Roy Hogue

            I don’t think that would go over very well anywhere in the U.S., not even in liberal, progressive California.

            However, there’s no arguing with its simplicity and probably ease of maintenance. But where do you wash your hands after use?

            00

  • #
    Mark M

    ARTHRITIS: A Byproduct Of Adapting To Cold Climates?

    Humans Developed Arthritis as They Moved Out of Africa
    Joint pain is the price we paid for evolution

    Arthritis causes pain and suffering for millions of people around the world, but it’s also the byproduct of an evolutionary mutation that allowed early humans to make the move from Africa to colder climates tens of thousands of years ago.

    http://www.newser.com/story/245192/arthritis-is-the-byproduct-of-adapting-to-cold-climates.html

    Cold temperatures kill more Americans than hot ones, CDC data show (paywall)

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/12/17/cold-temperatures-kill-more-americans-than-hot-ones-cdc-data-show/?tid=sm_tw&utm_campaign=buffer&utm_content=buffer91aa4&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_term=.8991d420ef06

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    • #

      I saved my own life by moving from a popular resort town with a Mediterranean climate in Australia’s south west, to a tropical town near the desert in the north that has become a popular resort destination over the past 30 years.
      Nothing better than escaping the moderate cold to improve one’s health! I wasn’t alone.

      50

  • #
    Philip Mulholland

    It’s Called Cold

    Lars Fält is one of the writers of the Winter Soldier – the soldier’s rules for winter conditions. A textbook that is part of the training for all soldiers in the Swedish Armed Forces since 1997. The coldest day he experienced was during a NATO exercise in Igloolik, northern Canada. The temperature dropped to minus 60 degrees. There he could also study how the Inuites handled extreme cold. There is an old saying that reads: “Sweating men, die.” They were extremely careful to keep dry. They moved slowly so as not to sweat under the layers of leather skin. Before entering their igloo, they carefully removed the minutest ice crystals from their clothes.
    -99 percent of our history has lived as a hunter in a much warmer climate than our present. Clothes have become a prerequisite for survival. Our bodies are simply not made to store heat, but to get rid of it, he explains.
    At 27 degrees, like during a hot summer day, you can walk around naked. Your body will work as it was once intended to do. If you exert, you will sweat and the body will cool off so you will not suffer from heat stroke. This cooling mechanism has been central to human survival. Provided that we are in good health, we can maintain our own body temperature in an environment where the heat rises to 60 degrees.
    -Cooler temperatures mean, however, difficulties. Without clothes you will already have trouble maintaining your body temperature at 15 degrees, “says Lars Fält.

    After a heat wave has passed the death rate drops below normal for a while, but there is no commensurate drop in the death rate to below normal after a cold spell has passed. Heat kills those who were due to die. Cold kills everyone irrespective of health.

    20

  • #
    el gordo

    Big snows in the south-east this coming week, which is fine if you’re rich and fatuous.

    ‘Further good news for skiers and boarders is the outlook for the Southern Annular Mode, otherwise known as SAM, is to go into a negative phase in the coming week. SAM describes the north-south migration of the westerly wind belt surrounding Antarctica, and in a negative phase, the wind belt migrates north, pushing the cold fronts higher. The higher the fronts, the more chance of snow for the resorts. In times like this, it’s definitely ok to be negative!’

    Weatherzone

    40

  • #
    Graeme No.3

    The early settlers in Australia came from northern Europe and found Australia very hot, so houses were ‘designed’ to be cool. Advice came from British India e.g. the Colonial bungalow with verandas on 3 sides to keep the sun off the walls, or the Queenslander built for cooling by the breeze. (Veranda[h] came from India). Winter was endured by burning trees which were plentiful.
    The other problem is that most house builders started off as carpenters and reproduced traditional designs, usually by removing the best bits. Then, as mosomoso points out above, professional designers (Architects) made a house design a matter of prestige (theirs not the owners), and the profession is riddled with disciples of Al Gore, so climate control is something to be done in public, not in your house. So now we have a stock of houses unsuitable for the climate cooling down and we aren’t allowed to burn trees these days except in power stations otherwise the evil CO2 monster will get us, and alternatives for heating are being made too expensive deliberately.
    So now astute readers will have realised why Greenies aspire to a solar house with great thermal mass. Such is only possible if sited on a few acres of well watered, fertile land which limits the number that can be built or afforded by the lumpenprolertariat who are kept out of the neighbourhood by strict planning controls. Much like here in the Adelaide Hills where the Councils don’t repair the roads (nor does the State govt.) but are placing modern sculptures in the parks – usually cutting down a few trees to make space – and trying to ban burning rubbish or wood fires in houses. Judging by the amount of smoke in the last month with no success as obviously more people are resorting to burning a tree to get through winter. Backwards 200 years in time, a part success for the Greens. Look for a cheap cave before the rush.

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    • #
      Neil Crafter

      Graeme No3
      While I agree with most of your post your blame passing to architects is overstated. While statistics are difficult to find, in the US it is estimated that only 1 to 2% of houses are designed by an architect. In Australia the figure is said to be “below 10%” but I’d hazard a guess that its as low as it is in the US. So perhaps point the finger at the 98% of houses that are certainly poorly designed, mostly by home builders and their draftsmen.Disclaimer – I am a qualified architect but not practising as one.

      41

      • #
        Geoffrey Williams

        Neil it is unfair to blame the draughtsmen for inadequate building design. The problem is much deeper than just the daftys or the builders, it goes to more fudamenral issues like specification and cost. See my blog #3.1 above.
        GeoffW

        30

      • #
        Graeme No.3

        Neil,
        I am sorry if you think that I was unfair to architects but from experience I have doubts about them, and while they may only get paid for 1-2% of houses these are the ones talked about and parts of the designs feed into what is built. Most builders will copy what they think will sell. So when open plan is spruiked in the glossy magazines guess what people get.
        If I wanted to bore you I would post the saga of the Biology Building when I was at University, designed by the Architecture Dept. but it has since been demolished. I will say that when I moved to Sydney and the Opera House was nearing semi-completion I wasn’t surprised.
        But I must apolgise for not putting in the point I wanted to make, in that Sweden is a lot colder than Australia and heating may be necessary all year. So they can be designed to keep heat in, and the heat usage varied as the outside temperature changes. A variation of -35 to 25℃ is easier to handle with heat only than one of 0 to 45℃ which requires cooling at times.

        20

    • #
      joseph

      Interesting too, is that, when looking at a lot of the old stone houses and ruins in country southern Australia, you notice the houses were built facing east/west and there were often no windows built into the north facing walls.

      40

      • #
        joseph

        So, no warming sun getting into the houses during winter when the sun is lower in the northern sky.
        I imagine everyone would know that’s what I was getting at . . . . . .

        40

      • #
        Another Ian

        My mother thought she’d like to have one of those southern stone houses. Until she met a person who had grown up in one who’s description was

        “Once they got hot in summer they never cooled down and once they got cold in winter they never warmed up”

        40

        • #

          I have an old Bavarian Farmers Stone House from 1840 with 80cm thick walls at the basement. Even in the hottest summer they will stay cool inside.

          During Winter they will heat up quickly with a stove, because the walls inside have a wooden cladding.

          00

        • #

          I have an old Bavarian Farmers Stone House from 1840 with 80cm thick walls at the basement. Even in the hottest summer they will stay cool inside.

          During Winter they will heat up quickly with a stove, because the walls inside have a wooden cladding.

          We also have central heating – wood fired. Being lazy folks, we let come down the temperature to 15 °C before staring a fire, just adding a sweater or two.

          All family members are healthy and seldom catch a cold. Many here believe that experiencing various temperatures will keepyou healthy.

          00

  • #
    TedM

    To add to all the above; just what keeps vulnerable people alive during heat waves (as well as during cold weather)? Affordable and reliable power!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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    • #
      Manfred

      Exactly TedM.
      21st century life and prosperity is quite impossible without plentiful, cheap power. It is as necessary to survival let alone flourishing, as water is in a desert.
      The eco-globalists use it as a political tool, wielding it as one might a blunt cudgel, while at the same time blaming their victims for the inflicted injuries.
      It would be sick entertainment were it not for real. In reality, it is depraved, twisted and immoral, and it will be the measure of their judgement.

      20

  • #
    Mark M

    O/T. Newsflash!

    Tim Flannery prediction comes to pass!

    2010:, the ‘Science’ Show, abc: “I think that within this century the concept of the strong Gaia will actually become physically manifest.”

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/blogs/tim-blair/gaia-is-risen/news-story/c8467acc6005f50f97c01d09e100a9ec

    2017: Excavation works resume on 2,100-year-old marble statue of Cybele in northern Turkey

    “An Anatolian mother goddess, Cybele symbolizes prosperity with her pregnant belly, seated on her throne.

    In Anatolian mythology Cybele personified the earth.

    In Greek mythology, she was equated to the Earth-goddess Gaia, and was mostly associated with fertile nature, mountains, towns and city walls, as well as with wild animals including the lion.

    https://www.dailysabah.com/history/2017/07/11/excavation-works-resume-on-2100-year-old-marble-statue-of-cybele-in-northern-turkey
    . . .
    At 110 centimeters tall (the) sculpture of the goddess sitting in her throne weighs an impressive 200 kilograms & qualifies as a strong physical manifest.

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    Brilliant! Petr Beckmann published a graph showing teetotalers had higher death rates than social drinkers. I hung it over the kitchen table to ward off dry nagging. Scientific American used to produce separate graphs of per capita access to energy and of life expectancy. Having energy help one work for a living makes a difference even the Nuclear Energy Licensing Board couldn’t deny with the graphs bundled together. But this is the best compilation of how the humble line integral of F dot dr as amended by the work-energy theorem is intimately bound up with with the bioethical standard of value Ayn Rand pressed home in Atlas Shrugged–to the horror of Ecological National Socialists worldwide. Bravo Jo!

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    David Maddison

    O/T

    Isn’t Al Gore interfering in Australian politics by promoting global warming lies when most sensible people see that there is no anthropogenic global warming and hasn’t been for 20 years (and only natural cycles of cooling and warming before that)? He is influencing the ignorant to support Green Labor Turnbull warmist lies which will show at forthcoming state and federal elections. And Victoria paid $150,000 for one of his presentations, not sure how much he pocketed.

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      joseph

      He’s just being allegorical . . . . .

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      Yonniestone

      Our elected officials can associate with whomever in their personal time within political self preservation, its when laws, policy and public money get involved that there’s need for concern so in Al Gore’s case…yes.

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    Binny

    Old people die, and more often than not a cold change is the final straw.(bringing with it a statistical spike)
    I’m not sure if having the deaths spread evenly through out the year. Is better than having them grouped on the first cold snap of winter.

    ‘Lies, damn lies, and statistics’.

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    David Maddison

    O/T

    Al Gore’s inconvenient $30,000 utility bill.

    http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/GlobalWarming/story?id=2906888&page=1

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      Yonniestone

      If reincarnation is correct the truly worst people will come back as one of Al Gore’s toilets.

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    joseph

    It appears as though you’re determined to be yesterday’s man . . . . . .

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      joseph

      Got it not quite right again! Was supposed to be a reply to David #13.

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        joseph

        And now I see I got the number wrong! 1t was actually #14! Not a good posting day! It is quite cool, could be I’ve got thickened blood not getting to the brain.

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    Robert Rosicka

    MSM will never report this fact , it does not fit with their ideology and one sided reporting of which the facts are what they determine them to be .
    Case in point is this one and no mention of Shillary meeting with the Chinese for support in the election .
    Sheeple just don’t get the concept of fake news unless they research both sides to a story and discover it for themselves , almost all stories on renewable energy are one sided and full of rhetoric and misinformation.

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    pat

    a must-read:

    15 Jul: Townhall: Paul Driessen: Insanity and Hypocrisy Down Under
    The Wall Street Journal called it the energy shortage “no one saw coming.” Actually, a lot of people did see it coming. But intent on pursuing their “dangerous manmade climate change” and “renewable energy will save the planet” agendas, the political classes ignored them. So the stage was set…

    The blackouts and energy crisis “offer lessons for America, as it prepares to vastly increase natural gas shipments abroad,” the Journal advises. It certainly does, though not the lessons suggested by the article or people quoted in it, amid the “excessive exports” narrative. Here are some of the correct lessons…READ ALL
    https://townhall.com/columnists/pauldriessen/2017/07/15/insanity-and-hypocrisy-down-under-n2355240

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    pat

    16 Jul: news.com.au: LNP convention sticks with Climate accord
    by Stuart Layt, AAP
    Queensland’s Liberal National Party state convention has narrowly voted down a resolution formally calling on the federal government to back out of the Paris Climate Accord.
    Delegates debated the controversial resolution at the beginning of the final day of the meeting in Brisbane, after previously endorsing a motion to urge a future LNP state government to support the coal industry.

    It was argued that if the resolution was passed it would put pressure on Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull to follow US President Donald Trump’s lead and withdraw from the global pact, a move which is supported by some on his backbench.

    Mr Turnbull mounted a defence of coal-powered electricity when he addressed the conference on Saturday.
    “Those people who say coal and other fossil fuels have no future are delusional and they fly in the face of all of the economic forecasts,” he told the crowd…

    Earlier on Sunday a resolution from the Young LNP to prevent changing male stick figures on traffic-walk signs to female was passed…

    On Saturday, a resolution to privatise the ABC, and another to financially penalise the public broadcaster for instances of “bias” were voted down, with party members saying the measure would be “electoral suicide.”
    http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/lnp-convention-sticks-with-climate-accord/news-story/c70cb17e09dec31486d4f2ff68e47806

    Ben Oquist speaks:

    13 Jul: InDaily: Tom Richardson: South Australians want more funding for ABC: poll
    But a new poll commissioned by think tank The Australia Institute suggests the culture war has been largely lost on South Australians, in a market in which the ABC regularly dominates the radio airwaves and nudges out commercial television news rivals for market share…

    However, the ReachTel poll of 1589 South Australian residents, conducted on June 29, found 40.4 per cent of respondents believed government funding for the ABC should be increased, with 33.4 saying it should stay as it is.
    Only 17.5 per cent believed it should be reduced, with 8.7 per cent undecided.
    Of those who identified as Coalition voters, 21 per cent wanted ABC funding increased and 44 per cent said it should stay the same…

    An overwhelming proportion of respondents (59 per cent) who said they would vote for independents and minor parties – including One Nation – wanted more money put into the broadcaster…

    Australia Institute executive director Ben Oquist said the research “further confirms that the ABC is Australia’s most trusted broadcaster”…

    The poll also suggested strong local support for the federal Labor Party, which would garner 56.1 per cent of support compared to 43.9 for the Liberal National Party on a two-party-preferred basis…
    http://indaily.com.au/news/local/2017/07/13/south-australians-want-funding-abc-poll/

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    thingadonta

    My mother is from eastern Europe and she has always said that Australian houses are made for summer, and don’t protect people from cold.

    When the first settlers arrived I read somewhere they tried to grow some tropical crops because the summers were so hot, and then realised they under-estimated how cold it got in Sydney in winter. Been like that ever since. Even the Polynesians when they arrived in New Zealand brought tropical crops, which wouldn’t grow there.

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    NuThink

    UK excess winter deaths.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/health/news/12015735/Winter-deaths-soar-as-elderly-suffer-in-cold-weather.html

    “Many of these excess deaths are caused by people living in homes that are too cold, and alongside action on social care, the Government needs to gets serious about tackling fuel poverty. Home insulation has fallen by 80 per cent under the Tories and is set to be cut back even further. Older people should not have to choose between heating and eating.”
    Sophie Neuburg, Friends Of The Earth fuel poverty campaigner, said: “These are appalling figures that ministers cannot ignore. The government’s refusal to invest properly in home insulation shows a callous disregard for the thousands of people who die each year because they can’t afford to heat their homes.

    “Many of these excess deaths are caused by people living in homes that are too cold”
    Heidi Alexander, shadow health secretary

    “Countries like Finland and Germany have significantly lower levels of excess winter deaths, despite having colder winters than us”
    Janet Morrison, Independent Age

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      NuThink

      Winter deaths have reached a 15-year high amid warnings from experts that worse may be to come, amid growing pressures on NHS services.
      There were almost 44,000 “excess deaths” between December and March last year – the largest annual rise in such figures for almost five decades.

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    Halcyon

    I’m in a 2 storey Victorian house with exterior walls triple brick solid (no cavity). After a couple of good frosts (-3.9 & -4.5) and a weekend away the house was down to 7.5ºC. Many years back in a drought year, which means lots of clear skies and frosts, the kitchen got down to fridge temp.- ~5ºC. Great in summer, but I’m over cold houses.

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    Richard Ilfeld

    So its not an accident that people retire to Florida and Arizona? Who Knew?
    I guess watching what people actually do with their lives isn’t science.

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    Amber

    Another inconvenient fact . Warming is good no matter if cow farts are a reason or not .
    Why do so many of the scary global warming preachers live in California ?
    A cooling earth is an eco -fascist’s wet dream . Population control by cooling .
    Fuel poverty deaths caused by stupid vain attempts to pretend to control the earth’s temperature .
    It s a sad commentary on the media , scientists and the public that the global warming
    con game ever got as far as it did .
    French President MCNut thought he would educate USA President Trump by linking climate change and terrorism . Yep that will change his mind .
    Trump could have responded … the next time you surrender who you going to call and by the way how is your little scientist raiding campaign
    working out ?

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    JMO

    I read some time ago an article by the demographer Bernard Salt. In this article he reported 20% more die during July-August than January- February. He attributed this to elderly people being vulnerable to the cold.

    Craig Kelly (Liberal c’wealth MO) is spot on when he said recently some people will die due to high electricity prices because the first thing which is switched of is the heater.

    All this nonsense due to climate doomsters,

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    [...] Cold. Jo Nova ran a piece last week that reprised a WUWT post from last December.  Bottom line is that nothing kills as many people as moderate.  Not extreme heat.  Not extreme cold.  Moderate cold is the real killer.  The piece has a bar graph of 13 nations that plot attributable fraction of deaths to temperatures.  In no nation reporting, no number of attributable deaths due to extreme heat, moderate heat, extreme cold rise to even 1% of the total.  Moderate cold on the other hand range from 2% in Brazil and Thailand all the way to nearly 10% in China.  The US number if 5%.  Worse yet, cold is more likely to kill you in Sidney than in Sweden.  Why?  Homes in Oz are not designed for cold weather.  Swedish homes are.  The piece ends up being a critique on the quality of homes built in Oz, noting that the higher quality homes in Sweden keep interior temperatures in the vicinity of 22 C while homes in Oz vary much more, especially when it gets cold, which it has in recent years.  The study of overall deaths took a look at 74 million deaths and concluded that cold kills 20 times more people worldwide than heat does.  Perhaps CO2 emissions are as good for humans as they are for plants.  http://joannenova.com.au/2017/07/forget-extreme-temperatures-nothing-kills-as-many-people-as-moderat… [...]

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