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Australian Rainfall Zones have moved (if you cherrypick the right years)

The headlines are out, telling us the unnerving news that the climate has changed, “zones are on the march”. How ominous.

Too-tricky graphs show how different everything is in the last 16 years “compared to the 99 before that”. But since our weather comes in cycles of 30, 60 or 200 years, as well as longer ones, almost any 16 year period is likely to be not the average of the century beforehand. Thus this technique can be applied to any noisy cyclical dataset as a Handy Headline Generator.

It’s a tad shameless to present it as if it means something given our short knowledge of the Australian climate and the hyper variability within. You’d think our last century had a constant climate, then there was a “shift”. Spot the hockeystick?

AEGIC — New Australian Climate Developing

Australian Rainfall, Climate zones,

 

Is someone graphing noise?

In thousands of kilometers across the pink “summer dominant” areas of central Australia, it might rain more in summer, but it mostly doesn’t rain at all and when it does rain properly, it’s once in a decade. See Alice Springs in January. How’s that for noise? Did a remnant cyclone rain on Alice this year?

How do we spot this zone “moving” — with a Ouija board?

 

Alice Springs Rainfall, BOM. Australia.

 

Here’s the winter rain across Australia — look at the whipsaw — to see a real shift in the Australian climate we’d need a lot more data to deal with the noise.

The flatter part recently looks a bit like the 1920s and 30s. Is it really a new climate, or just a cycle in the old one? If it has changed, how do we know it’s not due to land clearance, or some other factor?

 

 

About the only area that appears to show a trend is winter in South West WA and some bumper summer rain across the top half. The trend in SW WA seems ot be partly due to land clearing, (See do forests drive wind and rain?). Otherwise, check the cycles for yourself, there’s nothing that unusual going on in the Winter Rain in the Murray Darlin Basin, Tasmania, South Australia, Queensland and Eastern Australia. Rain goes up and down.

If you do enough permutations of months, years, seasons and regions, there’s bound to be a few with slopes.

Striking changes?

Dr Stephens said the new analysis revealed striking changes to the Australian climate over the past 16 years.

“Since 2000, there has been a general increase in summer rainfall across Australia, and a corresponding decrease in winter rainfall, leading to shifts in rainfall zones extending for hundreds of kilometres,” Dr Stephens said.

“Rainfall between May to October over much of the heavily populated regions of southern Australia has decreased 10-30%, while summer rain has increased up to 40% in some areas.

“This change in climate has major implications for farming and pastoral systems as the profitability of different crop types changes, disease risk changes, and the composition of rangeland grasses changes with stocking rates.”

H/t Peter H.

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Rating: 8.7/10 (47 votes cast)
Australian Rainfall Zones have moved (if you cherrypick the right years), 8.7 out of 10 based on 47 ratings

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132 comments to Australian Rainfall Zones have moved (if you cherrypick the right years)

  • #
    Leonard Lane

    With so few raingages in the interior and the short period of record, it seems hard to conclude anything but high variability.
    If they used the same analyses techniques on the 99 years of data prior to their period of analyses, then we might have some comparisons to make between patterns in the 99 years and in the 16 years.
    Again, sloppy statistics, ignored data for nearly a century, and wild speculations bereft of any comparison studies.

    252

    • #
      Ursus Augustus

      Gosh you just get sick of this cherry picking drivel don’t you?

      have a look at the graphs jo has presented, BOM data and BOM graphs no less and then imagine taking a 16 year period as your guide and imagine how many completely different alarmist stories you could confect depending on which 16 years you selected.

      Take the Australia, winter rainfall anfd for 1925-1941, 1960-76 or 1986-2000 and the headline would be:-
      “NOAH’S FLOOD IS COMING – WE’ll ALL NBE ROONED!!”

      but

      Take 1916 to 1930 or 1950 to 1966 and the headline will flip to:-
      “ITS A FLANNERY OF DROUGHT – WE’LL ALL BE ROONED!!”

      But if you mention ‘the Pause’ from 2000 – 2016 then you are “A CHERRY PICKING CLIMATE CHANGE DENIER.”

      Who gave these children a job? Yawn!

      52

      • #
        Rereke Whakaaro

        I worked in South East Asia for a while, doing what I do. A perk of the job was that we used to get a copy of the Australian weather forecast, wired to us, courtesy of the ABC. Nobody knew why.

        We were puzzled because a) it (the arrival of the wire message) had always happened”, and b) outside of the southeastern states, the forecast never seemed to change.

        Darwin was always, “Hot and Dusty”, Perth was always, “Warm, with a chance of rain”, Brisbane was always, “Humid for the time of year” [Say, what?], Melbourne was always, “Mild with a later chance of rain”, and my favorite; Alice Springs was always, “temperatures, slightly above average” [Go figure!].

        41

  • #
    MelbourneFox

    Looks like a Negative feed back loop in the climate system. Warmer weather bring more water to the Ecosystem when its better able to use it,ie during summer. Balancing the Climate Equation. Well just a thought. Anyway with all this experiences Cherry picking at lest the sacked Climate Scientist from the CSIRO Climate Change Department can get jobs Picking real Cherry’s on farms across Australia now that the rains increasing during the growing season.

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    • #
      Mike

      “the sacked Climate Scientist from the CSIRO Climate Change Department”

      We ‘cherry picked’ some folk.

      42

  • #
    Peter Miller

    Perhaps the rainfall figures are being homogenised as well as those of temperature?

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    • #
      Mike

      Your onto something.

      There could be money in homogenised rain.

      To market it, you could call it ‘Mist’ and make a squillion selling it as an investment grade product in CO2 futures trading.

      72

      • #
        Mike

        CSIRO have a history of working with water to obtain new products.
        Selling “Mist” to farmers might go something like this.

        Ordinary rain results in droplets which do not fall evenly, therfore some soil particles are hit by rain drops when other soil particles entirely miss out on rain drops hitting them.

        Mist ensures the distribution of precipitation is even and impact a maximum number of soil particles resulting in homogenised distribution. Viola !

        I can always remember the amazingness of the idea at the CSIRO of using a kitchen sink water aerator in a shower nozzle. The marketing was great!!

        23 January 2013
        ‘Air shower’ saves 50 per cent water

        “Traditional flow restrictors reduce flow and pressure, whereas Oxijet uses the flow energy to draw air into the water stream, making the water droplets hollow,” Dr Wu said.”

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        • #
          AndyG55

          Courtesy Steeley Dan..

          “Are you with me Doctor Wu
          Are you really just a shadow
          Of the man that I once knew
          Are you crazy are you high
          Or just an ordinary guy
          Have you done all you can do
          Are you with me Doctor”

          30

          • #
            AndyG55

            wups.. Steely Dan …no “e” before the “y”.. dopy !

            10

          • #

            So then AndyG, tell me then, what was that band named after?

            Tony.

            PostScript – Same album, same side even, the opening track, Black Friday. Where do you think they flew down to?

            10

            • #
              Ceetee

              Know the answer Tony but not fit for publication here. Nevertheless fantastic musicians those fellas. Now what could be the derivation of the word ‘fella’?.

              10

              • #

                Thanks Ceetee. I wondered how many might know, or not knowing, go and look it up. (nyuk nyuk nyuk)

                As to the song, the line is: (my bolding)

                When Black Friday comes
                I’ll fly down to Muswellbrook
                Gonna strike all the big red words
                From my little black book
                Gonna do just what I please
                Gonna wear no socks and shoes
                With nothing to do but feed
                All the kangaroos
                When Black Friday comes I’ll be on that hill
                You know I will

                I just loved that whole album, Katy Lied, which was a great follow up to Pretzel Logic, which is still my favourite of their albums.

                In that song they pronounce it it as ….. muz .. well .. brook instead of the correct pronunciation Muscle .. brook.

                The had an atlas, and wanted somewhere as far away from LA as they could find, that rhymed with the last line in the next line of the song, book, and hence the kangaroo addition to the verse as well. I heard the line immediately I played the LP the day I purchased it in 1975, and always wondered why they included the name of that place, knowing that Oz is the only Country with a town of that name. Years later, I found out why.

                Great song, from a great album by a great band. Got five of their albums (vinyl LP’s) too.

                Muswellbrook is the home town closest to, umm, Bayswater Power Station, my goto plant for power comparisons.

                Tony.

                10

              • #
                AndyG55

                I occasionally drag out the vinyl.

                The old Thorens 125 still does a good job :-)

                00

              • #
                Ceetee

                Is it just me, but I reckon a well looked after LP on a good sound system will always sound better than a digital recording. Good old fashioned analogue recordings seem to have a greater depth of sound. I think I know why that is before any boffins bombard me but the point is even a slightly scratched record of an analogue recording has a depth of sound that a digital recording can’t match. Call me an old fogey, but thats just me.

                00

              • #
                Greg Cavanagh

                Ceetee, your not alone. The CD format takes out the low frequency and high frequency sounds which the human ear can’t hear. Little did they know at the time that while we can’t hear those frequencies, the ear recognises when they are missing.

                The CD format is quite a low frequency sample rate. It’s just enough to be adequate and no more. Much like 24 frames of film per second. Just enough and no more. It does lack greatly compared to an analogue LP.

                00

            • #
              AndyG55

              F***ed if I know ;-)

              (in deference to our erstwhile host.. I say no more.)

              00

  • #
    doubtingdave

    ” There has been a general increase in summer rainfall across Australia ” Dr stephens said , wait a minute ! , didnt they justify building the desalination plants by telling you the opposite for years , surley more rain and higher levels of atmospheric CO2 is a win win situation for dryer areas , and yet the good docter tries to turn a positive into a negative, ” spinning ” for the cause .

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  • #
    Manfred

    Transparently and risible propaganda, presented as part of a ‘talk’ by a suitably titled “agro-meteorologist” this non-peer reviewed work does not readily broadcast methodology and appears merely to be ‘news’ released by a non-profit institution, the Australian Export Grains Innovation Centre (AEGIC) established in November 2012 by the Grains Research and Development Corporation (GRDC) and the WA State Government (through the Department of Agriculture and Food, Western Australia). It would be interesting to learn where their funding spigot lies.

    Suffice to say, David Stephens appears all ‘agro‘ and little ‘met’.

    Dr Stephens said the new analysis revealed striking changes to the Australian climate over the past 16 years.

    A quick glance at the World Meteorological Organisation whose definition of ‘climate’ states:

    The classical period is 30 years, as defined by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

    They betray themselves at every turn.

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    • #
      diogenese2

      The IPCC helpfully define “climate” as (to paraphrase) “the average of weather over decades, centuries, millennia or even millions of years”. That covers most bases. About a decade ago I read in the (London) Daily Mail that “the climate zones are moving north at half a mile a year”. So I drove down to Tunbridge Wells to see what the weather would be like in 50 years. It was the same as it was in Romford.
      I remember being taught about “climate zones” in junior school in the 50′s, learning words like “cordillera” “tundra” “pampas”. In those days the biosphere was recognised as part of the climate and it still is to key stage 2 (11 years old). Climate science sees it merely as a subjunctive, possibly their biggest myopia.

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      • #
        PeterPetrum

        “So I drove down to Tunbridge Wells …… “. That, D2, is the funniest thing I have read in years! I’m still laughing.

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        • #

          (Spoiler alert – This may be construed as satire, or it may even not be)

          So I drove down to Tunbridge Wells ……

          So, let me see now.

          In 2048, Australian Cricket will have a special commemoration of the 1948 Invincibles tour of the UK. Well, I suppose they will, what better opportunity to cash in sorry, celebrate such a monumental occasion.

          The Australian cricket team will tour the UK, and play matches against all the sides they played on that 1948 tour, which came in at 34 games in the five Months they were there, a hectic schedule of 112 days play in the 144 days of the tour. (I wonder if Australia’s players of today could handle that.)

          They played Kent at the St. Lawrence Ground in Canterbury, home of the legendary St. Lawrence Lime tree, actually on the field of play, that tree split by Global Warming, sorry, high winds in 2005 and replaced.

          For this 2048 commemoration tour, with the Climate now having changed, that ground is now virtually unplayable due to the parched conditions of the field and pitch due to the continual drought they now have.

          So this match will have to be moved to the Nevill Ground at (Royal) Tunbridge Wells, Kent Cricket Club’s secondary ground.

          That 1948 match was won by the Australians, by an Innings and 186 runs in two days. Oz batted on the Saturday. Bill Brown got the only Ton with 106 out of Australia’s 361, with Bradman scoring 65. Then the Australian bowlers tore through Kent, rolling them for 51 and 124, with speedsters Lindy and Big Bill Johnson, and the medium fast Sam Loxton taking 14 of the wickets to fall.

          Now, in 2048, I suppose with this heated climate moving inexorably north, I suppose Australia will have to take 4 spinners into the match.

          Tony.

          PostScript – On that same 1948 tour, Australia scored what, to this day is the highest score in First Class Cricket in one day’s play, 721. That was against Essex at Southend. Bradman won the toss and batted. Directly on Stumps after the full six hours of play, Australia was dismissed for 721, in fact, the only time on the whole tour the team was dismissed in one full day’s play. However, it’s not the runs which are worthy of note here, even though that huge total has never been approached in First Class Cricket. What is worth noting here is that Essex bowled 129 (six ball) overs, a rate of almost 22 overs per hour. In this day and age when teams are hard pressed to get through 90 overs in a day, this is just astounding. In those days, in County Cricket, that over rate was about the average, so time wasting has become common all over. In fact, in that famed Fourth test at Headingly, Norman Yardley, when in a winning position, batted on for two more overs on the last day, so seven minutes plus the ten minutes innings change, and set Australia 404 to win, and Australia got them with ten minutes left until stumps, so just over five and a half hours of play. However, England bowled 114 overs in that time, almost 21 overs an hour, and today it’s set at 15 overs per hour. I guess these days, bowlers struggle in that extra heat, eh!

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      • #
        Annie

        So, were you the original “Disgusted of Tunbridge Wells”?

        00

    • #
      ianl8888


      They betray themselves at every turn …

      CAGW advocates don’t care about that …

      And the silly red thumbs show they’re right. Nobody needs facts when they can just emote away.

      52

  • #
    AndyG55

    Dr Stephens said the new analysis revealed striking changes to the Australian climate over the past 16 years

    .

    Really ???? Not in the temperatures, that’s for sure.

    http://s19.postimg.org/m4jm9tfeb/Aust_Feb2016.png

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    • #
      Graeme No.3

      They need to get their act together, why would there be drastic change driven by no change in temperature.

      Oh! I forgot…they don’t think that there has been a hiatus (sic) in temperatures so disaster is coming. Now all they have to do is explain why a higher amount of warming 1979 to 1998 didn’t bring changes. ( I haven’t referred to any 1920-1940 warming as they have homogenised that.)

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    • #
      Alan

      But,but Andy our chief scientist (Alan Finkel tells Q&A) has ‘warned the planet is “losing the battle” against climate change, after new data showed February set a “completely unprecedented” record for the hottest month since global records began.’
      Don’t you just love that name. And do I need to add – sarc/

      72

      • #
        AndyG55

        “the planet is “losing the battle” against climate change”

        The world has NEVER even started that battle against climate change.

        In fact they have done the exact opposite of what will be required in the coming decades.

        What should have been done is the shoring up of energy supply systems against natural variability in climate.

        Everything that has been done in the “renewable” area will be found to be a total counter-productive WASTE when the world’s climate starts to drop back down into a colder period.

        A lot of the world’s population is going to suffer big time from lack of solid reliable energy supplies.

        But the scammers DON’T CARE.. they have their money safely tucked away.

        51

  • #
    Mike

    It’s really very simple….. when economic activity increases, this causes smoke particles to blot out the suns rays which causes temperatures to drop globally.

    Therefore => now that economies around the world are crashing, the generation of smoke particles diminishes which in turn allows more suns rays to hit the earth thus increasing temperatures.

    simple :)

    72

    • #
      The Backslider

      Not quite.

      Svensmark has hit the nail on the head. The whole “greenhouse effect” is game over. The only greenhouse effect we have is a cloudy night impeding convection to keep the night warmer (and not “back radiation”). It does not at all control global temperatures.

      The correlations Svensmark is able to show are astounding, from tens of years to millions of years.

      20

  • #
    TdeF

    About a decade ago, I read in the Australian press of a 20 strong US team investigating why Australian rainfall had suddenly halved 50,000 years ago. This was interesting. You can see this in our desert, that the slightest drop of rain and the desert blooms, unlike the deserts overseas. The desert dams in American do not have our green verge. In Nevada when it rains, the dirt is wet. Then it dries out. Western Australia is covered with wild flowers.

    Anyway the team apparently came to the same conclusion as Tim Flannery with his mega marsupials also wiped out exactly 50,000 years ago. The arrival of man and the gift of fire. As Flannery found, the conclusion is obvious and inescapable and the story was buried. Nothing to see here. I can find no reference on the internet.

    However it does raise a serious question. If we could restore the green landscape with drip irrigation, planting, channels, terra forming, could we restore the rainfall? Could mankind change the climate? Could we flood Lake Eyre? Move water around? Create rainfall zones. Restore habitats? Terraform? Can we start? Was this Abbott’s direct action?

    All we get from the proponents of a carbon tax is that we should send money overseas. What about spending it on ourselves and changing our own climate? Or is the carbon tax just a ruse to get cash?

    You saw this on the weekend, a benign and benevolent Julie Bishop getting her photo taken with Fijian children as she handed out $14million to help them recover from the terrible cyclone. What about the $400million she and Malcolm gave to the UN to help the world with Climate Change? Or is that about helping Kevin Rudd and Julie Bishop achieve their dreams, following Helen Clarke into the caring UN. The weather is a gift to politicians and there is a world stage with the IPCC. Trillions to stop everything and self promotion. Nothing to make climates change for the better.

    How can we in all logic employ 350 CSIRO people solving Australia’s Climate Change problem. Why the CSIRO? The same 350 people could not even positively identify the problem. Now we are told it is all about the rainfall. To quote Homer Simpson, duh!

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    • #
      TdeF

      Malcolm Turnbull’s ETS. You do not change anything you are doing, just send money overseas and the caring bankers will make sure it gets to the right people to prevent Global Warming. Now called Climate Change because there is no warming. Anyway, you would not think people would fall for this, would you? Whoever thought this up deserves a medal. Even a Nobel Prize.

      142

      • #

        It really is a sad day when the leaders of the major political parties believe in “climate change” initially, and that anybody can do anything much about it except adapt. Let’s see some robust evidence before spending the proverbial penny.

        71

        • #
          Rod Stuart

          I was expecting a retort to Dr. Stephens regarding statement “Since 2000, there has been a general increase in summer rainfall across Australia”.
          Where did you find the actual empirical rainfall data for the Hydro Tasmania watersheds leading up to the current situation?
          I was looking for the at the other day. According to the Mercury, it is all due to a ‘drought”.
          Thanks, and cheers.

          81

          • #

            The same story in today’s Australian, Tasmanian’s problem in part due to lack of rainfall, also on the Hydro Lake level site. Cannot see much evidence drought in the west coast catchment, annual rainfall in 2015 of 2500 mm. at Strathgordon is not a drought. Perhaps a political drought. All this diesel is going to cost more than the profits from selling their green electricity in the first place!

            10

    • #
      David Maddison

      Agreed. I recall reading many years ago that most of the desert regions of Australia could be irrigated and turned into fertile farmland with the use of about three nuclear powered desalination plants to make fresh water from the ocean and pump it inland.

      81

      • #
        TdeF

        Russia built many great canals, albeit at terrible human cost. The Moscow/Volga canal and the Don/Volga canal changed the country. Many societies like the Romans did amazing things with water. England built a canal system which provided transport and drained the marshes. Greens are letting them clog and waterbirds matter more than people.

        You can only be grateful to the visinoaries who built the 26 locks on the Murray which never ran dry in the drought. Plus the people who put the sluice gates and plugs on Wivenhoe in 2006, preventing an incredible catastrophe and forcing the operators to act at the last minute while the politicians dithered.

        Then there is a real possibility to make it rain much more in Australia, but it’s what you do with it. Changing vegetation can change climate. We just let water evaporate. The nature loving Greens prevent us from doing anything. Not a big new dam in Australia in fifty years. That is criminal. Three huge unused desalination plants which will take a generation to pay off, perhaps $100Bn. Even an unused $800million North South pipeline in Victoria no one wanted. Water management in Australia is a disgrace, shackled by Green mantra of stopping change, even the weather and certainly water storage. The Greens in Victoria even stopped a freeway under a cemetery which would have taken 40,000 cars a day off their streets. It cost every Victoria family $1000 to stop a tunnel?

        In Victoria, Andrews is now going to start the desalination plant? I agree with this as water is liquid cash, but he has given no explanation which makes sense. In Tasmania the excuse for emptying the dams is a drought, except it is not true. Tasmania has had normal rainfalls. Greed is the explanation, banking on exceptional rainfall to cover up the theft of Tasmania’s water. Green economic management, a contradiction.

        When will governments actually employ scientists to make Australia the food bowl it should be. Water is the key. The CSIRO spent 50 years trying to make it rain with cloud seeding. Now they have 350 people working on fixing Climate Change. That’s amazing.

        Unfortunately the Greens, the people against everything are against farming too and think deserts are cute and lizards should rule the earth. They did once. It’s our turn.

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        • #
          Mike

          TdeF, hey!!! what about the corrosion……..we still need to install the stainless steel water pipes to distribute the stuff….for the water treated by reverse osmosis :)


          Definition – What does Reverse Osmosis Corrosion (RO Corrosion) mean?

          Reverse osmosis (RO) corrosion is a type of corrosion that is encountered with water produced by reverse osmosis.

          Water produced by reverse osmosis has a comparatively low pH and has little or no alkalinity. This means that the water lacks its hardness to function like a buffer. Therefore, this type of water can be highly corrosive to the distributing piping of metals.

          40

        • #

          Tasmania is now down to 14.8% of lake storage, from 22% in mid Dec. There was a statement about electricity security with a taskforce; phase 1 get to the winter rains and phase 2 longterm planning in case BassLink is not repaired by the Summer. To me it looks as though they are putting the foxes in charge of the henhouse. Still nothing definite about repair to the cable

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        • #
          David Maddison

          It’s sad that nobody in Australia thinks about mega-engineering projects any more.

          10

    • #
      Wayne Job

      We have huge tides up north, about 20ft around Darwin, my plan would be to dig a channel to lake Ayre. It is around 32ft below sea level. We would have our inland sea, commercialised it would be worth billions a year. It would also create rain fall. Just a thought.

      11

      • #
        AndyG55

        Lase Ayre is already a salt bed, so I guess that would be a problem.

        But I’m not sure how you would use the sea water otherwise.

        No many commercial crops like salt water..

        Maybe another desal plant :-)

        21

        • #
          AndyG55

          “Lase Ayre ” ????

          I guess the ‘s’ is close enough to the ‘k’ to pass it off as a typo ;-)

          10

      • #
        Graeme No.3

        Wayne Job:

        Join the queue. Just after WW2 Hartnett (then Chief of GMHolden) wanted to use a stockpile of approx. 7,500 tonnes of explosives to blast a channel from Spenser’s Gulf to Lake Eyre (via Lake Torrens), and fill it with sea water and generate more rain inland. That would be shorter and cheaper than bringing the water down from Darwin.

        He was following Bradfield and Idress who proposed damming rivers on the east side of the Great Dividing Range in Qld. and diverting flood waters to Lake Eyre via Cooper’s Creek, for the same aim.

        P.S. Lake Eyre is about 6 metres below sea level mostly, with the lowest part being 15 metres below.

        30

    • #
      Tom R Hammer

      Currently Desert Valkey in California is blooming madly as too was Big Bend National Park in west Texas, so Australia isn’t the only place where deserts bloom vigorously after a good soaking.

      20

  • #
    Mike

    Poor economic data is following the same routes.

    For example……….

    Think of people as being cherries. When the ability to pollute is curtailed as manufacturing plummets due to poor economic activity, an employer needs to cull the cherries that are performing poorly and keep the cherries that are performing well.

    This is an example of ‘cherry picking’ at its finest.

    Thanks

    Mike

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  • #
    spangled drongo

    “In contrast variability in annual rainfall has increased in….. much of central Queensland.”

    The big climate shift they forget about was 1976 when all the cyclones SE Qld and Northern NSW had been getting at the rate of half a dozen a year for decades suddenly stopped.

    Not progressively as you would expect with increasing emissions but overnight and a serious cyclone has not crossed the coast south of the TOCap in the 40 years since.

    If that shift can be incorporated in “normal” weather then this is a pussycat.

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    • #
      Graeme No.3

      Standby for GLOBAL WARMING ATE OUR CYCLONES

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      • #
        James Murphy

        There’s no standby required unfortunately. I can name at least 3 occasions where I have been accused of cherry-picking this data from the BOM, despite just posting a link, and not actually making any claims about climate change either way – you know, just letting the data speak for itself.

        From what I now understand, I was completely wrong when I thought I remembered being told we should expect to see more cyclones as a result of “climate change”, because it has always been the case that we should expect to see fewer cyclones as a result of “climate change”.

        Apparently we have always been at war with Eastasia too…

        21

        • #
          spangled drongo

          “Projected changes in the number and intensity of tropical cyclones are subject to the sources of uncertainty inherent in climate change projections.”

          IOW, when nothing bad is happening it is “uncertainty” but normality is always “worse than we thought”.

          James, when you go from 100 cyclones in the previous 40 years to none in the following 40 years in a specific area you can be sure it will be the only time the BoM will embrace uncertainty and anyone asking the awkward question will be accused of cherry picking.

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        • #
          el gordo

          It seems global warming produces less cyclones than global cooling, but I hasten to add its just a model perception.

          http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL064929/full

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          • #
            spangled drongo

            Yes, EG, Lindzen has been saying for years that they should reduce with GW.

            But not many seem to agree.

            I just wonder what causes them to disappear altogether ☺

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  • #
    RB

    There was a recent month in Adelaide that was the driest ever, according to the Kent Town Station that has a record since 1979. So I checked the North Adelaide data that went back a century and is only a few kilometres away. It was not even in the top 10% of driest years because of how variable rainfall is even in a small area as well as the longer record.

    A lot of the rainfall in Australia is from down pours. The recent heavy downpours across East Australia five years ago dropped about a years average in one day in arid regions. The rainfall data varied by over 20% in short distances. The error bars on that data would be massive if science were still about what the data says and not what those who dole out grants want.

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    • #
      TdeF

      In Petra, Jordan, the Nabateans had mastered random and rare heavy rain with many small dams, pipes and hundreds of cisterns to create an amazing and then rich oasis in the middle of endless desert. The point though is that random heavy rain is their climate. The primitive BOM model seems to be steady rain or drought.

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    Rainfall in southern Australia is mainly due to the series of low pressure systems which proceed from the west to east and then on to NZ. In wintertime this band of “lows” reaches its northern most displacement at around 40 degrees south with the centres reaching the southern coast of Victoria. In the summer the lows descend again and rarely reach the southern tip of Tasmania at about 43 degrees south. Some years the lows go higher (more rainfall) and some years they don’t (less rainfall). Not too sure about the difference between winter and winter dominant rainfall; I thought the west coast of Tasmania would qualify as winter dominant.

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      el gordo

      ‘During the summer, the sub tropical ridge is located over southern Australia resulting in warm to hot conditions with winds generally from the east through to the northwest.

      ‘During winter this ridge is located across northern Australia allowing the westerly winds and associated cold fronts to extend over southern Australia with colder conditions.’

      BoM

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      Rod Stuart

      Tassie’s Koppen-Geiger climate classification is Cwa. (Although it is pretty obvious that the climate of Terraleah is different than that of Binnalong Bay).
      With all this “climate change” underway, I am unaware of anyone altering the classification.
      Strange how people conflate “weather” and “climate”. And conflate “climate” and “temperature”.

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    Glen Michel

    The new science is in!A vaguely colour-coded map with the dominant climate regions lacking any nuance as to be laughable.Stick it up on the classroom wall where the teacher can point out our regions.Geraldton a dominant winter zone? Are they suggesting southern maritime air masses dominate in winter?incredulous that 16 years is used as a time frame for climate.Still, no-one on the CO2 alarmist bandwagon can prove their case that any regional/ global variation is at the whim of this proscribed trace gas.These academics need a collective enema.

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    Ted O'Brien.

    Curious that the 16 years chosen coincide with “The Pause”. I shouldn’t be so cynical.

    I am not a scientist. But my observations over a lifetime do not confirm any weather/climate cycle beyond the daily rotation of the earth, the monthly rotation of the moon, the annual rotation of the Earth around the sun, and sunspot cycles.

    In my grandfather’s diary he was seeking through the weather records for evidence of cycles which would enable better forecasts. He found none. It is my view that in the more than a century since, the only change is that we have better methods of recording data. Certainly some events occur in sequence, but the sequence is not cyclic on a regular basis.

    That said, chaos may be more readily observable in the part of the world that I am familiar with than in other places around the world.

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    Robert R

    The election for the Lord Mayor of Brisbane is next Saturday. Opinion poles point to a change from the current Liberal to a new Labor Mayor because of Green prefs. One of the main policies being put forward in the campaign by the Labor candidate is that he will divest all Council investments away from coal and fossil fuels immediately if elected. He says that the erratic weather (rainfall and floods) experienced by Brisbane in recent times is caused by ‘climate change’ and Brisbane has to do its bit to prevent this from happening. Apart from the fallacy of this reasoning, have they forgotten that over 40% of the state of Queensland income is derived from coal. The Queensland state deficit is already monumental.
    OMG we need to remind them!

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      Robert R

      When the coal exports stop and the money runs out, the QLD public servants will have to start to go at some point.
      And no…… there won’t be enough lawn mowing jobs for them on the Gold Coast when that happens.

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        Mike

        Bullcrap!! ……There will be heaps of lawn mowing jobs if more of this continent is homogenised as history has proven.

        Take plantation forests which is a new age forestry that has already converted most of Victoria into a homogeneous lawn of genetically modified blue-gums and pines out of biologically diverse state forests for nickels in the dollar.

        By converting the rest that is not used for homogeneous gums and pines into lawn, there will be plenty of mowing jobs.

        A growth industry the new age Carbon Green Forestry could help with based on incredibly successful experience/practise.

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          Robert R

          Yes, but no place will ever beat the Gold Coast…….it is the Mower/Blower capital of the world.
          Mowers, blowers, edge trimmers going seven days, sunrise to sunset. It’s now the headphone capital of the world ha!
          But I guess that all the CO2 emissions from this overload of machines is making the grass grow faster temporarily causing more job opportunities.
          But people won’t be able to afford to pay these mower men when the money runs out and there won’t be any fossil fuel to run the mowers etc if the greens have their way via their labor lackeys. Oh for such a day….no public servants and no mower/blower men LOL

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    el gordo

    AEGIC believes its the ‘…strengthening high pressures over Australia.’

    They are parroting BoM, but they are wrong. My observation suggests the Sub Tropical Ridge (STR) is stuck in summer mode all year round and is more than likely a cooling signal.

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    We are not living in our grandparents’ climate, that’s true (and who’d miss the climate of the 1930s?). What they don’t mention is that our grandparents were not living in their grandparents’ climate. Since you could have walked from Melbourne to Tassie a mere eleven thousand years ago (or less), it’s fair to suggest that climate changes more than a bit, in both cyclical and lineal ways, and changes pretty fast.

    In short, climate alarmists do not believe in climate change. The notion of a static climate preceding an Anthropocene is a flagrant denial of what most educated people used to know about the Holocene Epoch…and had to be diseducated to unknow.

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      spangled drongo

      MM, they sure don’t believe in our historic, plain and obvious, natural climate change.

      To cure their denial that our tiny global temperature increase since the LIA, the coldest period of the Holocene, is still not anywhere near average natural climate variability they should be made to do that Melbourne to Tassie walk to help them get the message.

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      The Backslider

      You are perfectly correct mosomoso.

      Climate alarmists are indeed the true and only “climate deniers”.

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    tom0mason

    Yet another so called scientific report that takes an unproven hypothesis and successfully proves that by manipulation more confirmation bias can be manufactured.

    “Since 2000, there has been a general increase in summer rainfall across Australia, and a corresponding decrease in winter rainfall, leading to shifts in rainfall zones extending for hundreds of kilometres,” Dr Stephens said.

    Since 2000!
    So climate is now judged by the last 16 year, a time period where global CO2 levels have risen but temperatures have not. A time period where a global temperature hiatus has ruled, but even this, in climate terms, is not that significant.

    Who ever paid for this ‘research’ has wasted the money. So who did pay for it?

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      Mike

      So who did pay for it?

      Meanwhile………on a terrestrial planet in our solar system…..

      , “Loretta Lynch And The Government War On Free Speech”

      During her appearance before the Senate Judiciary Committee last week, Attorney General Loretta Lynch admitted that she asked the FBI to examine whether the federal government should take legal action against so-called climate change deniers. Attorney General Lynch is not responding to any criminal acts committed by climate change skeptics. Instead, she is responding to requests from those frustrated that dissenters from the alleged climate change consensuses have successfully blocked attempts to create new government programs to fight climate change.

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      ROM

      The Grains Research and Development Council [ GRDC ] one of a number of similar Agricultural Research Councils across Australia’s agricultural, horticultural and livestock, pasture and other smaller Ag producing industries of which each deals with a specific sector of the Agricultural industry.

      Each Research Council is funded by a levy on the farmer’s production of the relevant group of agricultural products.

      In the case of the Grains industry’s GRDC the Levy amounts to 1% of the value of the Grain production produced by a farmer and is deducted from that farmer’s proceeds from his crop.
      As the consumer also gets very considerable benefits from food production research and the consequent stability of supply and price and a trusted food quality for their food consuming requirements the Federal Government matches the amount of levy money raised by the GRDC from each annual crop.

      There has been a good deal of angst within the GRDC over the last few years as the amounts being raised from the levy and therefore the reduction in the matching federal Government funds due to the poor harvests and very low prices of the last decade or so has created a situation where there is very little funding for new projects after the annual funding for longer term research projects has been allocated.

      The GRDC has a number of regional Panels ie Southern Panel that deals with crop production in the SE Australian region and high rainfall areas in Victoria, consisting of agronomists, well regarded and up speed in technology farmers and local researchers that filter out the applications for funding for projects in their areas of responsibility before their regional agricultural research projects, that originate across a whole gamut of private to government to academic to university applicants, are assessed as being relevant to the regional agricultural situation of the time.
      And that the projects to be kicked up stairs for a further assessment for funding on a national level are relevant to the manner in which agriculture is moving and are relevant to the new plant variety breeding programs and a whole range of problems, mostly natural ie; Rust fungus disease, fungal diseases of every type, root diseases and insects pests that arise as crop technologies and crop types and varieties change and any other factors that loom large as problems for agriculture both current and future and are therefore likely to need funding to research.

      The press release looks like it might be a poorly presented and a rather blatant attempt at self promotion using some very dodgy statistics to try and grab another lot of funding as the GRDC is probably around this time of the year is doing its sums on research project allocations as the amounts of the last harvest’s levy outcomes are becoming finalised and the funding of research projects and long term semi permanent funding arrangements for Agricultural research organisations for the next annual cycle of funding can begin to be allocated .

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        ROM

        The AEGIC should be very careful in its claims as the GRDC might just decide that the publicity being generated indicates that the original projects funding aims is not being met and just simply fails to allocate any further annual funding or reduces that funding by a considerable percentage.

        As for climate zones shifting; Yep! it happens short term, say a half a lifetime in length all the time before it shifts back or more likely just morphs to another version of an ever changing climatic conditions.

        The item here is that over the last few years a serious and very and possibly deliberately misleading misnomer has been subtly introduced into our climate terminology.

        The truth is that this whole gamut of ever changing conditions re rainfall and wind and temperature and humidity are Australia’s real and actual Climate. Australia’s climate is Zonal.

        We have all those zones that the map shows.

        Thats our Australian Climate and it shifts and changes all the time whilst remaining within that band that all relatively knowledgeable people other than climate catastrophe believers and academics just doing their usual gross misrepresentations [ I'm trying to be polite and dodge the mods! ] whilst chasing vast sums of tax payers money, know as and call our Climate

        But there are, always have been and will continue to be quite significant shifts in the regions where particular localised climate conditions exist and have remained so for a few years to a few decades before they again subtly change in character as do all the surrounding localised climate regions at irregular intervals.

        The Australian continental climate as is the case every where on the planet including to vast ocean expanses is made up of all these often subtle variations in ever shifting, ever changing localised conditions.

        But to claim that “Australia’s” CLIMATE is changing just because there might be an unproven zonal shift in localised conditions and then call it a “Climate change” as though it was a major and very long term millenium lengthy shift in the major weather patterns and therefore a definite climate shift / change without any hard observations based over many decades or a century or more to back up and to base that claim on is pure modelling and academic BS.

        To take a couple of the macro sized climatic forces that affect the Australian climate I will quote [ at length Sorry ! ] from the World Meteorological Organisations Significant Natural Climate Fluctuations

        Each of the following multi year to multi decadal long natural cycles almost invariably has an effect upon Australia’s climate.
        I would suggest that in fact all three natural cyclic phenomena listed below either separately or in combination and in phase or out of phase with one another will have a very considerable effect on our relatively small land mass continent surrounded as it is with the vast ocean areas where these listed climate controlling phenomena plus other natural cyclic climate controlling phenomena originate  from and have been located out there over a very long time since the present global ocean current and wind configuration came into being at the end of the last ice age and its consequent rapid rise in sea levels some 12,000 or more years ago
        ——————

        South Pacific Convergence Zone

        In the South West Pacific, there is an interesting region where the generally warm sea surface temperatures produce lower surface air pressure, and where converging, rising air produces cloud and rainfall. Its position and the associated rainfall have a major impact on the peoples of many Pacific Island countries in the region. Known as the South Pacific Convergence Zone, it runs diagonally southeast from the Solomon Islands to Samoa and beyond. While it usually shifts little during the year, its position is linked to ENSO variations. During El Niño events it is displaced east, and during La Niña events west, of its mean position. Over the longer term the zone has shown a striking eastward displacement since 1977, compared with the period 1948–76, again reflecting the more prevalent occurrences of El Niño events during the later period.
        ————————

        Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO)

        The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) is a lengthy interdecadal fluctuation in atmospheric pressure. When the IPO is low, cooler than average sea surface temperatures occur over the central North Pacific, and vice versa. These changes extend over the entire Pacific Basin. During the 20th century the IPO exhibited three major phases. The IPO had positive phases (southeastern tropical Pacific warm) from 1922 to 1946 and 1978 to 1998, and a negative phase between 1947 and 1976. The two phases of the IPO appear to modulate year-to-year ENSO precipitation variability over Australia, and bi-decadal climate shifts in New Zealand. The positive phase enhances the prevailing west to southwest atmospheric circulation in the region, and the negative phase weakens this circulation.
        ——————-

        Antarctic Oscillation (AAO)

        [ edit; Also called the "Southern Annular Mode"; the SAM which is known to have a summertime effect as far north as Darwin according to one paper I read a few years ago ]

        The Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) is an oscillation of atmospheric pressure in the far southern latitudes. It is characterized by pressure anomalies of one sign centred in the Antarctic and anomalies of the opposite sign centred about 40-50°S. The AAO is also referred to as the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). There is a Northern Hemisphere equivalent called the Arctic Oscillation or Northern Annular Mode.

        The fact that Antarctica appears to have cooled during the 1990s is claimed to relate to the fact that the AAO was largely in its positive phase during that time. Typically the Antarctic Oscillation alternates between phases about every month. But in the 1990s the positive phase occurred more often. Without the influence of the Antarctic Oscillation, it is likely the Antarctic would show the same kind of warming as the rest of the Southern Hemisphere. Before 1975, Antarctica appears to have warmed at about the same rate as the rest of the hemisphere, about 0.25 degree C per century. But since 1975, while the Antarctic showed overall cooling, the Southern Hemisphere has warmed at a rate of about 1.4 degrees per century. It has been claimed that ozone depletion in the Southern Hemisphere is keeping the Antarctic Oscillation in its positive phase for longer periods.

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    Bulldust

    Cherry picking is the way science is done now, apparently. Australia’s chief scientist, Dr Allan Finkel (can’t spell that without fink… but I digress), wishes to highlight that we are losing the “battle against climate change” whatever that is:

    https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/31099750/were-losing-climate-fight-finkel/

    So the same sort of people that wanted to ignore 18 some years of “hiatus” now get all moist because of a couple hot months:

    “That rise is consistent with a trend. Even though it’s one month and it’s almost aberrantly high, you wouldn’t want to dismiss it,” Dr Finkel said.

    “…you wouldn’t want to dismiss it”

    I would like to dismiss Dr Finkel (El Fink?) for sheer lack of scientific integrity, but there I go with my old skool rational logic again…

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        pat

        Bulldust -

        ABC’s on a CAGW binge again – won’t bother with urls as they can easily be found:

        this hour – or the last 20 mins which is what I heard – was the appetiser overnight, with cli-fi writer Bacigalupi quoting Oreskes & the tobacco meme (he has a book called “The Doubt Factory”), and saying stuff like “I profit from hopelessness hahaha”… and “I can suck the joy out of anything” (audiencce laughter):

        14 Mar: ABC Books & Arts: The Water Knife by Paolo Bacigalupi
        His gripping new novel, The Water Knife, explores a future blighted by drought. Bringing the potential effects of climate change to life, Bacigalupi weaves a compelling tale that calls into question our moral obligations in caring for the planet.
        He speaks about the novel with Michael Cathcart at the 2016 Perth Writer’s Festival.

        above was followed by this IMPARTIAL(?) ABC hour:

        14 Mar: ABC Big Ideas: Innovation and sustainability
        Human ingenuity seems to know no limits. So what innovation, what new technology, could be just around the corner to help us become more sustainable and provide a solution to some of the big environmental challenges? (CLIMATE CHANGE MENTIONED AT THIS POINT IN THE BROADCAST, BUT NOT IN THE SUMMARY).
        Recorded on December 29th, 2015, ‘Green Forum”, Woodford festival…
        GUESTS:
        Ian Lowe, former president, Australian Conservation Foundation; Professor Emeritus, Griffith School of Environment
        Hogan Gleeson, third-generation farmer, creator of an eco-village in Northern NSW; co-creator of the Eco-city Farm.
        Stephanie Morozengineer, scientist, businesswoman.
        Hans Jurgen Kleinwaechter, solar physicist; creator of integrated solar-power systems.

        as morning broke, u could get:

        15 Mar: ABC AM: Reef death a ‘wake up call’
        MICHAEL BRISSENDEN: Scientists are warning of a “climate emergency” following the release of new data that shows February smashed global temperature records…
        TERRY HUGHES (convenor of the National Coral Bleaching Taskforce): The most severe bleaching occurs where the hot water has resided for the longest period, so there’s a very clear link between global warming and the severity of these events…
        DAVID WACHENFELD (chief scientist, Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority): The bleaching that we’re seeing on the reef at the moment is concerning, and this just re-emphasises how important it is that we urgently cut greenhouse gas emissions…
        The Australian Research Council’s Laureate Fellow, UQ Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, says half the reef’s coral has died over the past three decades.
        OVE HOEGH-GULFBERG: Lose the corals, you lose the fish. If you lose those organisms, you lose the tourism and fishing, and of course if you lose those you lose the income to Queensland and Australia…
        STEPHEN MILES(Qld environment minister): I’m greatly relieved that the Paris climate talks did resolve to limit global warming well below two degrees because we know that’s what the reef needs to survive…

        with a follow-up so silly I will include the url:

        AUDIO: 15 Mar: ABC AM: Australia’s reached peak emissions and the trend is ‘not just good, but deeply… important’: Greg Hunt
        MICHAEL BRISSENDEN: This is pretty stark confirmation of what’s happening in the world, isn’t it? Are we all acting fast enough and is Australia doing enough?…ETC
        http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2016/s4424983.htm

        can’t imagine another media outlet in the world – much less a taxpayer-funded one – getting away with this degree of CAGW propaganda in the space of 5 or 6 hours.

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      handjive

      Tipping Point – Hottest February Ever …

      NASA, Special Weather is now Climate:

      “But the increase temperature anomaly spike seen last month was particularly steep. As Gavin Schmidt, head of NASA GISS, put it on Twitter today: “Normally I don’t comment on individual months (too much weather, not enough climate), but last month was special.”
      . . .
      That’s not a tipping point, more like a ‘jumping the global warming shark’ moment.

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    Farmer Gez

    Hmm, but I will say that in our area of the Wimmera a run of seven bad seasons including absolute droughts in the past sixteen years is real. I’m not blaming CO2 but this dry cycle has tested us severely.

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      Ted O'Brien.

      Compounded with the depressed prices for what produce you do have caused by the NFF’s economic policy of Unilateral Trade Reform, Farmer Gez, nobody, I repeat nobody is surviving. It will take years of current improved prices to recover Agriculture’s losses over the last 13 years. By then you will be old.

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        Another Ian

        Ted

        I’m afraid that the powers that be from Canberra down haven’t realised that they’re facing a rural crisis of the magnitude of the US dust bowl of the 1930′s.

        And they’ve got a majority of voters that are mostly rural disconnected

        And there isn’t even a dust storm for punctuation.

        Up that creek and no paddle I’m afraid if you’re rural

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    During natural warming periods the climate zones do appear to shift towards the poles and in natural cooling periods they shift towards the equator.

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    The report says this:

    “In the mid-1970s, there was a weakening of the Indian Ocean Trough to the west of Perth which appears to be related to a decline in winter rainfall since then. In the 2000s, this trough has weakened further in conjunction with strengthening high pressures over Australia.”

    The mid 70s was the time of the poleward climate zone shift between the cooling of the 50s and 60s to the warming from the mid 70s until the 90s.

    They seem to be suggesting that the shift around 2000 was an intensification of that poleward shift whereas the global air circulation shift that I have been drawing attention to over the past ten years is actually equatorward since 2000.

    There is plenty of evidence globally that the wavier jet stream tracks since 2000 have resulted in a more equatorward average position for the climate zones so I am surprised by this report.

    What we should be seeing is a return of Australian rainfall patterns towards those that prevailed in the 50s and 60s.

    Does anyone have data on that?

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      el gordo

      ‘Does anyone have data on that?’

      Just had a quick look, the 1950s appear wet and the 1960s drier.

      Do you accept BoMs argument that the Subtropical Ridge is intensifying?

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    handjive

    SMH, June 14, 2007: Wetter north only temporary: Flannery

    “The Australian of the Year says people instead should learn to live in a permanently drier climate.

    “Computer models indicate that the increased rainfall is most likely caused by the Asian haze, which has pushed the monsoon south,” Professor Flannery wrote in the latest issue of New Scientist magazine.

    “This means that as Asia cleans up its air, Australia is likely to lose its northern rainfall.”
    . . .
    Yogi Berra: “The future ain’t what it used to be” …

    theaustralian, DECEMBER 11, 2015: “The Philippines is set to open 23 coal-fired power plants over the next five years to meet rising electricity demand, illustrating the challenge climate-talk negotiators face in crafting a deal that reduces carbon emissions.”

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    Dr Stephens ought to open his eyes occasionally, get out some more. He is seriously trying to make the science fit his world view. Here in Broome in the last 25 years, we have had record high summer rainfall, record low summer rainfall, record high winter rainfall and record low winter rainfall. No record heat or record cold shows that everything is still normal, showing that we have weather, not climate change. But then I cherry-picked the last 25 years!
    I am constantly visiting our state’s biggest desert, and see no change to a vibrant ecology, subject to extremes of hot, cold, dry and wet. Nothing points toward anything extreme or change outside of natural variations.

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      el gordo

      In 1900 the top end had no wet season and 1902 was only marginally better. It was the Federation drought with a centennial Gleissberg the main player, that is when weather becomes climate.

      Broome sounds great.

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      Ted O'Brien.

      Tom, does your record start, like ours, at 1990?

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      Another Ian

      Tom

      I’ve been suggesting a new word (well it was good enough for Shakespeare)for the likes of Dr Stephens

      Empixellated

      To describe those who spend too much time looking at computer screens and not enough in the real world

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    DaveR

    Same old template – Write a false/highly biased story and feed it down the pipeline to a compliant mainstream press. No chance of correction or retraction, no investigation from any journalist.

    Until someone tackles one of these blatant fabrications full-on, just one, and fully exposes it as an article designed for press consumption with no regard to the truth of the science, with a correction/retraction issued, the cycle will continue.

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      Rereke Whakaaro

      But, but, but, that would spoil all our fun.

      And let us not forget, that at each stage of authoring, and editing, and publishing, those involved have all added their own degree of scare factor.

      A rounding-up here, and a “slight” over-estimation there, and some approximation of time scales somewhere else.

      Then you have journalistic license applied, so that it reads better, fills the alloted column-inches, and becomes more news-worthy.

      Truth leaves the room when any of these things occur. I can’t remember the last time I saw it.

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    pat

    more shock horror shonky nonsense:

    14 Mar: WUWT: Eric Worrall: Claim: Sea Level Rise Could Displace Millions of US Citizens
    Sea Level Rise may displace up to 16 million Americans by 2100, according to researchers from the University of Georgia. But the study ignores history, technological progress, and the unreliability of climate models…
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/03/14/claim-sea-level-rise-could-displace-millions-of-us-citizens/

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    handjive

    That awkward moment when the most thorough analysis ever finds no precipitation trend – in the last couple centuries:

    http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169415008744

    Another new study for OZ droughts was reviewed on ABC Vic Country hour.

    This covers the period 1500 to 2012 and like the Calvo and Vance studies this shows that the period from 1900 to 2015 is about as good as it gets.

    http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/124002/pdf

    And here is another reference:
    This second link gives an overview and it shows that all of the worst droughts occurred before 1900.

    http://newsroom.unsw.edu.au/news/science-tech/500-years-drought-and-flood-trees-and-corals-reveal-australia’s-climate-history

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    pat

    this makes Michael Brissenden’s interrogation of Greg Hunt on ABC AM this morning look ridiculous:

    14 Mar: ClimateChangeNews: Megan Darby: German CO2 emissions rise 1% in 2015
    Higher heat demand and use of brown coal for power behind estimated increase in climate pollution, says think tank Green Budget Germany
    Germany’s carbon dioxide emissions increased by an estimated 10 million tonnes from 2014 to 2015, in a blow to the country’s claims to climate leadership.
    Higher demand for heating oil and diesel, plus use of lignite (brown coal) for power generation, were behind the 1.1% bounce, according to Green Budget Germany…
    It is an inconvenient analysis to surface the week Germany’s foreign office hosts the Berlin Energy Transition Dialogue (LINK), an international conference to promote cooperation on clean energy…
    http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/03/14/german-co2-emissions-rise-10-million-tonnes-in-2015/

    above links to the following. check agenda/sponsors.

    Berlin Energy Transition Dialogue 2016
    The global energy elite meets in Berlin to shape concepts for an intelligent energy transition.
    17-18 March 2016 Federal Foreign Office Berlin

    the hype is in overdrive this week:

    14 Mar: ClimateChangeNews: Tim Radford: Mediterranean could be in driest spell for 900 years
    Drought in east spanning Cyprus to Syria the worst in at least half a millennium and may be nearly twice as long, scientists say
    They report in the Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres that they used a tree-ring chronicle – trees accurately reflect the rainfall conditions of each year in their annual growth – to establish what had happened…
    In effect, they have traced climate history back to a very different world, long before the European discovery of America; a world in which Christian crusaders fought the Saracen forces for control of Jerusalem; in which the armies of Byzantium held the eastern Roman Empire against assault from the Turks; in which the temples of Angkor Wat were first built; in which work on the great cathedrals of Europe began; in which Venice began to emerge as a great maritime power; in which the first European universities began to take shape…
    “Both for modern society and certainly ancient civilisations, it means that if one region was suffering the consequences of drought, those conditions are likely to exist throughout the Mediterranean basin,” said Kevin Anchukaitis, an expert in ancient climates at the University of Arizona, and one of the authors.
    http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/03/14/mediterranean-could-be-in-driest-spell-for-900-years/

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    pat

    14 Mar: Bloomberg: Abengoa Said to Step Up Efforts for Debt Restructure Support
    by Katie Linsell, Macarena Munoz Montijano & Luca Casiraghi
    The Spanish renewable-energy company still needs the support of lenders with about 35 percent of its debt to approve a deal agreed with its main bank creditors and bondholders last week, according to two people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified because the negotiations are private.
    Under Spanish law, creditors holding 75 percent of the debt must approve the plan, and Abengoa must present it to a court by March 28…
    A spokeswoman at the company declined to comment on the negotiations…
    Banco de Sabadell SA, another of the lenders involved in the restructuring talks, sold 75 million euros of Abengoa’s loans this month as negotiations for a preliminary agreement drew to a close, according to two people familiar with that matter, who declined to be identified because the trade was private.
    Banks involved in Abengoa had struggled to offload debt holdings in previous months because of uncertainty over the future of the company.
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-14/abengoa-seeking-further-creditor-support-for-debt-restructuring

    ***keep a watch on your super/pension funds:

    14 Mar: Business Green: Jocelyn Timperley: SSE sells £355m stake in flagship Clyde Wind Farm
    Deal sees utility giant sell a 49.9 per cent stake in 350MW project to two investment funds
    Utility giant SSE today announced it has sold a 49.9 per cent stake in its operational Clyde Wind Farm.
    The £355m deal will see renewable investment fund Greencoat UK Wind (UKW) acquire a near-28 per cent stake in the 350MW South Lanarkshire farm, while ***UK pension fund venture GMPF & LPFA Infrastructure LLP (GLIL) will purchase a 22 per cent stake. SSE will continue to hold a majority 50.1 per cent stake…
    http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/2450805/sse-sells-gbp355m-stake-in-flagship-clyde-wind-farm

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    John F. Hultquist

    I’ve always thought I’d like to visit Coober Pedy.
    However, I’m not too fond of real hot and dry.
    Now that it is green and cool, I’ll check the flight schedule.

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    David Maddison

    OFF TOPIC REMINFRT

    Richard on Weekend Unthreaded mentioned this. As I type this, the event is about 17 hours from now.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=poi8YLUIgVs

    Can Humans Cause Global Warming with CO2-Emissions From the Burning of Fossil Fuels?

    The lecture will present some basic facts concerning CO2 and its properties, discuss the residence time in the atmosphere of human emissions and why it has no measurable effect on the climate. The lecture will also explain the 30% increase of CO2 during the last century and why it is not human caused and will finalize the lecture by explaining what is causing the climate changes and what the climate will be in the future

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    David Maddison

    I meant OFF TOPIC REMINDER not OFF TOPIC REMINFRT.

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    OriginalSteve

    Speaking of *cough*…..”research”

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/australian-national-university-academics-call-for-fossil-fuel-divestment-20160314-gnj0rk.html

    The skiiiiesssssss are falllllllliiiinnngggggg!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    “The letter reminds Professor Schmidt, a physicist and 2011 Nobel Laureate, that he described climate change as “the great challenge for humanity over the next 100 years” and called for global warming to be kept below 2 degrees.

    “The Paris Agreement indicates the world is taking action to transition to a low carbon economy,” the letter says. “As a global leader in research and education, the ANU has an obligation to lead global efforts to secure a safe climate for future generations.”

    “Among the signatories are staff and academics in seven ANU schools and colleges. The letter coincides with a national campaign being launched across six other university campuses around Australia.

    Fossil Free ANU spokeswoman arts/law student Zoe Neumayer said Professor Schmidt and the ANU Council could not ignore the letter’s message.

    “As Brian Schmidt faces up to his new job as the leader of our university, staff are telling him to face up to the fossil fuel companies that are causing climate change and holding back progress.

    “That means divesting in full,” she said.

    Campaign group 350.org helped organise the open letter. A spokesman said it was the second largest open letter on the topic, following a similar push by staff and students at the University of California in 2015.”

    Yep – another hotbed of *should know better* leftist nonsense……is it any wonder people dont take academics seriously any more?

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      AndyG55

      I DEFY Prof Schmidt (unfortunate name, that) to divest of all fossil fuel usage throughout ANU.

      Have you got the GUTS to do that.. or are you being a TOTAL HYPOCRITE !!!

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        bobl

        And fossil fuel DERIVED energy, The Proportion of peak use allowed to be used must be strictly limited to the fraction of renewable nameplate being generated at any time. I doubt there’d be enough to charge the Profs IPhone.

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          bobl

          Sorry not quite right, if Renewable production is 1% of total energy at a given time then ANU can have 1% of their nameplate consumption only.

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    AndyG55

    OT, but a brilliant post on BolA’s site from Robert

    Malcolm is truly the Fence post turtle

    While stitching a cut on the hand of a 75-year old farmer whose hand was caught in a gate while working cattle, the doctor struck up a conversation with the old man.

    Eventually the topic got around to Malcolm Turnbull the Prime minister.

    The old farmer said, “Well, ya know, Turnbull is a fence post turtle.” Not being familiar with the term, the doctor asked him what a fence post turtle was.

    The old farmer said, “When you’re driving down a country road and you come across a fence post with a turtle balanced on top, that’s a fence post turtle.

    You know he didn’t get up there by himself, he doesn’t belong up there, he doesn’t know what to do while he is up there, and you just wonder what kind of dopey person put him up there to begin with.”

    BRILLIANT !!!! and oh so TRUE. !!!

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    toorightmate

    Either Broken Hill’s average rainfall has been higher for the past 70 years than it was for the first 50 years of recordings OR my school teachers in the 1940′s were telling me fibs.

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      AndyG55

      From what I’ve seen, the 40′s-70′s were a sort of raise “plateau” when it comes to rainfall.

      Certainly MUCH dryer through the beginning of the 20th Century. Federation drought et al.

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    Fred

    Some Australian historical weather and rainfall stats from achive . org

    https://archive.org/stream/climateofwestern00cookrich#page/36/mode/2up

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    pat

    14 Mar: ReutersCarbonPulse: Mike Szabo: Sandbag founder to lead Environmental Defense Fund Europe
    Bryony Worthington has taken up the role of executive director and will help the non-profit “bring a fresh voice to the European environmental debate – a voice for practical solutions grounded in science and harnessing the power of markets,” said EDF board chair Carl Ferenbach…
    Worthington, who was a lead author of the UK’s 2008 Climate Change Act, which established the country’s binding target to cut GHG emissions by 80% below 1990 by mid-century, will also work with former Energy Minister ***Greg Barker, who has been appointed to sit on EDF Europe’s board.
    Worthington was in 2010 awarded a life peerage by the Labour Party in Britain’s House of Lords.
    http://carbon-pulse.com/16983/

    ***that would be this Greg Barker:

    Wikipedia: Greg Barker, Baron Barker of Battle
    Gregory Leonard George Barker, Baron Barker of Battle PC is a British Conservative Party politician and life peer…
    Barker also developed strong links to the Russian oil companies, being Head of Communications at the Anglo-Siberian Oil Company from 1998–2000 and also worked in London and Moscow for the Sibneft Oil Group, owned by Roman Abramovich…
    In May 2012 Barker attracted media attention after it was reported he used a staff microwave at the Department of Energy and Climate Change to warm a cushion for his pet Dachshund, Otto…

    Dec 2015: Business Green: Madeleine Cuff: Greg Barker joins Leonardo DiCaprio to help deliver clean energy to world’s poorest
    Powerhive, a US technology firm that works to provide off-grid communities with access to clean energy, has appointed former Climate Change Minister Greg Barker and environmental activist Leonardo DiCaprio as the inaugural members of its strategic advisory board.
    In an announcement released today, Powerhive said DiCaprio and Barker would work with the company to help develop its strategy for delivering renewable energy to some of the world’s 1.4 billion citizens that live without access to reliable electricity…
    Barker said he will focus on aligning Powerhive’s work with the infrastructure and energy plans of developing countries. “Part of my role as an adviser will be to ensure Powerhive’s strategic expansion and critical infrastructure solutions work well with the plans and aspirations for energy access of a whole range of countries across the global South,” he said.
    He added that the Paris climate agreement reached over the weekend will spur the rollout of clean energy solutions…
    http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/2439263/greg-barker-joins-leonardo-dicaprio-to-help-deliver-clean-energy-to-worlds-poorest

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    GOYDER’S LINE OF RAINFALL
    How a Famous Boundary Was Delineated

    http://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/58542929

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    TdeF

    The biological adaption of kangaroos to a land of “droughts and flooding rain” is dramatic. A production line is in stasis waiting for the deserts to bloom after a rain. Then the kangaroos can reach plague proportions quickly. The explosive gum trees reproduce by fire as the world’s fastest growing trees and the kangaroos grow rapidly at the end of a drought. In a competitive world its all about real estate and opportunity and having an edge.

    So even without a hundred years of records by the BOM, surely someone studying the adaption of the dominant marsupials would conclude that over millions of years unpredictable and random heavy rainfall in Australia was the norm, not an extreme event or climate change or an ‘angry summer’?

    Then you had Australian of the year, dead kangaroo specialist Tim Flannery as the head of the National Climate Commission telling everyone that “even the rains which fall will not fill the dams”. He was wrong as usual but he should have known better. The evidence was built into his very own subject, kangaroos. We can learn a great deal about the long term climate of Australia by studying the native and unique flora and fauna. It certainly is clearly more instructive than the BOM and CSIRO furiously studying very time limited data and trying to work out if the climate has changed and we should pay a carbon tax.

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    eliza

    Ot but is this not the most amazing story ever (if true) to completely break the back of AGW in Australia? (unless psyed already) http://www.climatechangedispatch.com/climate-scientist-arrested-for-fraud.html

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      TdeF

      The real question is whether the booming now 30 year old ‘science’ of Climate Change/Global Warming/Ocean acidification actually attracts financial and career opportunists. Given that that Climate Change is so nebulous, the Globe is not warming and the oceans are alkali, you would have to think so. Otherwise how do you explain Australia’s Climate Commission, now the Climate Council? Not a meteorologist among them.

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    Roy Hogue

    I know birds migrate south for the winter. But migrating rainfall? And the direction ought to be the other way in the southern hemisphere, shouldn’t it?

    Things get stranger and stranger. Next we’ll have migrating continents or something like that. Oh! Wait a minute, we already do.

    Of course if you believe that just a few decades proves anything about the climate, well, I have some marvellous stock in a company making wind turbines that I’m forced to sell cheap. It seems that the wind isn’t cooperating with their grand plan any more than the rain is. But this company has a new design that runs even when there’s no wind. It’s called a windless generator. You turn it yourself when the wind stops. But you have to be quick to step in and provide muscle power when the wind dies lest your customers have a sudden blackout. I hear it’s good for your physical fitness too. How can you lose.

    It’s all so confusing and hard to keep straight… …migrating birds, rainfall, continents… :-(

    But the big bad wolf rides again, nonetheless.

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