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Sportsbet call it a Coalition win, *still* taking bets, but pay out $1.5m early

Sportsbet odds reached $11.50 for an ALP win, and as low as $1.03 for a Coalition win. They’ve just called the Australian Election, nine days early.

That’s it! Sorry Sky News, apologies to the ABC, don’t bother news.com.au. We’re calling it first. – Sportsbet

They’re saying the Coalition will win 90 seats, ALP 56, Katter 1, and Wilkie 1, but don’t know about the seats of Lyons and Lingiari.

Shame the Coalition appears to be missing his rare opportunity to give us the small government we so desperately need. They could savagely cut red-tape and spending, and unleash the power of Australian innovation, brains, and creativity. This is not even being discussed. Sigh. They offer $31b in cuts, but as Judith Sloan points out: “Essentially, both parties expect to spend nearly $1700bn in the next four years.

Government shouldn’t be trying to “create jobs” any more than they should be “picking winners” in the market. A governments job is to create the conditions that allow the cleverest, hardest working, and luckiest to mobilize the workforce in the most efficient and fairest way.

 

UPDATE: ! Oops. They are still taking bets, Title and Tweet corrected. Apologies to Sportsbet, I didn’t see how they could still take money…

 

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Rating: 8.8/10 (65 votes cast)
Sportsbet call it a Coalition win, *still* taking bets, but pay out $1.5m early, 8.8 out of 10 based on 65 ratings

Tiny Url for this post: http://tinyurl.com/pauzl3t

89 comments to Sportsbet call it a Coalition win, *still* taking bets, but pay out $1.5m early

  • #
    Jon

    It’s not over yet. If you like Norway have a media dominated by leftist they will do their best to promote ALP?

    60

    • #

      The definite are. Especially the A(LP)BC. Down in a local shopping centre with live radio broadcast on the “voting compass”, ecouraging people to group-think by inviting people to compare their opinions to those of others.

      40

      • #
        Bulldust

        How can this be Bernd? The ALP keep telling us how the big, bad Murdoch press, which owns 150% of the country’s media or somesuch, is dead set against them???

        50

        • #
          Sceptical Sam

          According to the 2011 Finkelstein Review of Media and Media Regulation, Newscorp owns 23% of the newspaper titles in Australia and accounts for 59% of all sales of daily newspapers.

          The customer tells the story clearer than any ALP, ABC or Fairfax party line.

          No wonder the losers, like Fairfax, are generating pressure through their socialist comrades in the Labor Party (ALP) and Greens to try and bring a successful newspaper business back to the field. Of course, Newscorp (Murdoch) is successful because of the quality of the journalism, the breadth of reporting and the diversity of views presented in its papers. May it long continue.

          70

      • #
        John Brookes

        Have you done the “voting compass” thing Berndt?

        114

        • #

          You mean the questionaire with Cooksian validity that only asks about a limited number of issues in the media focus at the time; which then tell the voter which party they should be voting for depending on the intersection of “policy blobs” determined arbitrarily by “anonymous” policy analysts?

          P.S. You should take more care reading and writing; especially names. Some people might mistake your carelessness for discourtesy.

          110

        • #
          ian hilliar

          I have JB- I came out a little to the right of the coalition, but I have always said I am just to the right of Attila the Hun.

          20

        • #
          Bulldust

          I labored through the crappy survey only to arrive at what I knew was my position … ever so slightly (bottom-right) right of centre. Duh.

          The problem with democracy is that you don’t get to vote on things that should be popular conscience votes – e.g. gay marriage, abortion, euthanasia etc. These things should not be decided in canberra but by an online poll or some such. But politicians don’t like to let go of any power, so we remain with this second-best system where you have to vote for a member-party combo which essentially means backing a whole portfolio of policies many of which you disagree with, but the overall basket is not as bad as the other camp’s. This is assuming that one votes while paying attention, as opposed to being a mindless rusted-on.

          BTW the election was pretty much over when Sportsbet called it, but Labor is now dead in the water with the $10b “black hole” gaffe. Falsely representing the treasury, Finance and/or PBO has destroyed whatever credibility Rudd might have had. He’s gone.

          50

          • #
            AndyG55

            ” you don’t get to vote on things that should be popular conscience votes ”

            SO ABSOLUTELY TRUE !!

            These are NOT political issues.

            They should be decided by plebiscite, and the people wanting the change should fork out the funds to the electoral commission to cover the costs.

            10

            • #
              Bulldust

              With online voting the costs would be minimal – use Centrelink offices of the like for those without access. Others could do it from home. You can bank from home, do your taxes from home … why not vote from home?

              10

              • #

                Why not?

                Gaping holes in security vs anonymity tradeoffs.

                With banking etc, the other party has to be reasonably sure that they are dealing with the correct individual.

                With online voting, not only do they have to be sure that they are getting a vote from the right person, they need mechanisms so that the vote as cast cannot be associated with the individual. The necessary scrutiny and oversight at time of counting will not be reduced. Transparency is more difficult to achieve than with e.g. postal ballots. The system audit trails that need to be kept to facilitate quality control and problem solving with the voting system can be leveraged to identify who voted and perhaps by correlation, which vote they cast.

                Worse still is that most individuals know nothing worthwhile about keeping their own computing devices secure. Even knowledge doesn’t lead to secure practice in all but a minority of computer users.

                Moreover, an independent recount will be impossible if there are no paper ballots.

                Do you trust the numbers coming out of a computer?
                And how long have you been a climate modeller? :-)

                00

  • #
    Big_Nambas

    There has been no chance for the ALP since Gillard lied and lied to us. Rudd is no better and we see right through his waffle. As for Jon, “it’s not over yet” get real!

    70

    • #
      jon

      In Norway it’s very popular to have some sex or rape smear before an election. Media choose to cover it all leaning. Usually if its Labour he will be mentioned With his name only. If it’s the opposition they will use the party and then the accused name.

      30

  • #
    Truthseeker

    Jo,

    A landslide for the Coalition in the House of Reps means nothing if they do not get a clear majority in the Senate.

    40

    • #
      ianl8888

      Yes, it does, I’m afraid

      The size of a majority in the Lower House determines the likelihood of a follow-up Double Dissolution and subsequent Joint Sitting

      In short, the Lower House numbers of the winner must exceed the Senate shortfall (by a good margin) to consider the risk of a follow-up Double Dissolution and subsequent Joint Sitting

      If the LNP win Sep 7 with a margin of, say, 20-25 Lower House seats but the Greenies still have the balance in the Senate (3-4 votes), then DD+JS game on. Now, that will be interesting

      50

  • #
    MemoryVault

    Essentially, both parties expect to spend nearly $1700bn in the next four years.

    Every cloud has a silver lining. Just think of it. In three years time, with taxes on just about everything increased, electricity up another 40%, manufacturing down another 30%, official unemployment around 8% and climbing, and Gross Debt hovering upwards of around $600 billion, we’ll be able to look back on the last six years as the good ol’ days.

    .
    And that’s regardless of whoever actually wins.

    50

    • #
      Truthseeker

      MV, to repeat a comment I made on an earlier thread …

      Actually all government system gravitate towards collectivism. Why? It is simply because those in power want more power. Power is addictive and regardless of the purity of the motivation (“I want to improve life for everyone”), power gained is never relinquished. That means that power accumulates for a ever decreasing section of society. Collectivism increases and individuality reduces.

      Freedoms mean a lack of control and if you want more control you need to reduce freedoms. How many laws have been enacted since Federation in Australia? How many have been repealed? If you did that comparison by a word count, the difference would be truly stupendous. If you include “regulations” that differnce becomes astronomical. The growth in the various government bureaucracies is another indicator of this.

      The good news is that all collectivist systems collapse. You cannot create a control system that works with that level of control. The required bureaucratic overhead is too much for the productive ecomony to support and the whole thing implodes. The bad news is that usually many people die in that collapse until the “reset” is complete. Of course if one collectivist system is replaced by another, then you get the turmoil without the benefit and the same collapse will re-occur until a true “reset” is done and then the cycle starts again.

      The light at the end of the tunnel is indeed an oncoming train …

      100

    • #
      Sceptical Sam

      I’m not as pessimistic MV.

      When we get that fracking gas going and the pipelines pumping it through to where it’s needed we’ll see the economy pick up and fire. Cheap, reliable and plentiful energy will be one of the drivers of economic success in the time-frame you identify.

      Just get then Greens out of the way.

      82

      • #
        MemoryVault

        That will indeed be interesting to see, Sam.

        Especially given that, like LNG already, ALL CSG projects currently under development are for the EXPORT market. There simply is no plan for any of it to be available for domestic consumption.

        Which is probably just as well, as there also aren’t any “pipelines to pump it through to where it’s needed“, either. Nor any plans to build them.

        60

        • #
          Sceptical Sam

          Watch this space, MV.

          12

          • #
            MemoryVault

            Watching

            31

            • #
              Sceptical Sam

              Page 2. “The Australian” today, 30 August 2013.

              The pressure to sort out the policy obstruction is just beginning.

              keep watching this space, MV.

              10

          • #
            Sceptical Sam

            Wow! Red letter day.

            My first ever red thumb.

            What was that for?

            11

            • #
              MemoryVault

              .
              Don’t look at me Sam.
              I don’t “do” red thumbs.

              .
              I also don’t buy the Australian or subscribe online, so you’ll have supply a bit more detail about “sorting out the policy obstruction”.

              20

              • #
                Sceptical Sam

                http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/turn-gas-tap-on-or-crisis-looms/story-e6frg6nf-1226706991616

                The headline is:

                “State told to act or face price hikes, job cuts
                ‘Turn gas tap on or crisis looms’”

                Sarah Jane Tasker.

                12 paras.

                From: The Australian
                August 30, 2013 12:00AM

                THE NSW gas industry has warned of higher gas prices, job cuts and a significant risk to the state’s energy security if the coal-seam gas sector is not developed.

                James Baulderstone, vice-president of eastern Australia at Santos, said without indigenous gas of its own, NSW had no ability to control its energy supply security.

                “NSW faces prospective gas shortages as long-term contracts underpinning the state’s gas supply expire over the next two to three years, the very time in which the commencement of LNG exports from Queensland will see annual gas demand in eastern Australia triple,” he said.

                “Looming natural gas shortages in NSW could be avoided by the timely and balanced development of the state’s already discovered reserves of natural gas.”

                Mr Baulderstone argued that unless NSW could quickly secure future supplies, its homes and businesses would be subject to significant energy price increases.

                Industry leaders, including Santos, Origin, AGL and industry body the Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association have used submissions to the government’s inquiry into downstream gas supply to add weight to their CSG campaign. The development of NSW’s CSG reserves has been strongly opposed by green groups and farmers, leading the government to announce several policies over the past 18 months that the industry argued negatively impacted investor sentiment.

                “All other states are streamlining their approval processes to encourage investment. However, the NSW approvals framework is uniquely complex and lengthy, and is further extended by the prevalence of third-party review provisions, including both merit and judicial reviews,” Mr Baulderstone said.

                “The current regulatory process in NSW is likely to extend the length of time for project approval from three to five years. This would result in no gas from new projects being available to NSW customers until the end of this decade.”

                AGL’s chief economist and group head of corporate affairs, Paul Simshauser, said that if the CSG industry was allowed to safely develop the proven gas reserves in NSW there would be enough natural gas in the state to supply current levels of consumption for many decades.

                “The potential for security of supply breaches later in the current decade is of particular concern to AGL Energy and NSW’s manufacturing industries,” he said.

                APPEA warned that inconsistent policies added uncertainty to investors and operators.

                “As a result the regulatory environment for the natural CSG sector in NSW, it is now subject to the strictest regulations in Australia,” Ryan Bondar, APPEA senior policy adviser, said.

                This MV, is why you need to get yourself an online subscription to “The Australia”.

                Did you see it in any other newspaper?

                As I say, watch this space.

                20

              • #
                MemoryVault

                Thanks for that Sam, but I fail to see the point you are trying to make.

                What I said originally was that all CSG projects currently under development, are slated for the export market (LNG too).

                The article even goes on to say that gas that is currently available to the state of NSW under existing supply contracts, those contracts all expire in the next two or three years, and, to date, there is nothing in the wind to replace them.

                .
                These days nobody develops a multi-billion dollar oil or gas field, and then hangs up “gas for sale” sign. The major players, like Santos, explore and prove a field, and then go looking for a customer or customers, either in a joint-venture, or signed supply contract basis.

                The joint-venture, or the contract to supply, then becomes the collateral used to borrow the funds to develop the field, the processing plant, and the delivery pipes, or shipping load-out facilities.

                Back in the old days of responsible politicians, State governments were major investors in, and so subsequently clients of, gas field developments. For instance, development of Moomba initially involved supply contracts with the SA and NSW governments, and later, QLD. The Court government in WA were major investors in, and clients of, the Dongara gas fields.

                Unfortunately our distraction with CO2 this last decade, has meant no such investment, state governments have preferred to buy gas at the “spot” price, relying on oversupply.

                What your article really is, is a warning to the State governments, particularly the NSW government, that those days are over, the spot price will soon go through the roof, and there probably won’t be enough gas on the spot market to meet demand anyway.

                10

            • #
              Sceptical Sam

              Ok. Thanks MV.

              I’ve just worked it out.

              We’ve got two greens on here who are red/green colour-blind. They were so impressed with my erudition that they thought they were giving me the green thumb, but being good socialist/communistas they found their red baggage trumped their green inclination.

              Is that why they call watermelons watermelons?

              10

              • #
                MemoryVault

                Possible.

                I know there’s someone who gives Crakar a thumbs down, no matter what he posts. Ditto for Manfred. I had someone targeting me a couple of months ago, but it seems to have stopped now.

                10

    • #
      Andrew McRae

      Pat found the CO2 dirt on Greg Hunt and the Liberals. A CO2 emissions reduction treaty by major powers is still on the Liberal party planning radar.
      Since they are already looking at a landslide victory it seems unlikely he faked this rumour to garner the Labor-disaffected non-Greens green vote (if there is such a beast).

      20

      • #
        pattoh

        All the more reason to back the Sceptics & Leon in the senate.

        NWO Fawning Fabian Bastards – tools of “the City”

        30

  • #
    realist

    “Government shouldn’t be trying to “create jobs” any more than they should be “picking winners” in the market. A governments job is to create the conditions that allow the cleverest, hardest working, and luckiest to mobilize the workforce in the most efficient and fairest way.”

    Agree entirely. However, what we see under all governments, primarily at Federal and State levels, is “job creation” of the Statist kind. This ramped up considerably under the Labor/Green alliance, where the deliberate expansion of bureaucracy has become an under-handed endeavour to entrench control via the entitlement agenda, by filling the public circus and quangoes with left-compliant attitudes and doctrine. This is “job creation” of the purely political, non-market economics kind. The agenda is to gain incremental control over every aspect of people’s lives if they can, by both direct means and a raft of hidden mechanisms.

    This is quite deliberate, make no mistake and has been for some time, to manipulate public opinion and shut down dissenting opinion (does the ABC spring to mind?), entrench Big government and make everyone pay for their trojan horses (numerous departments of CAGW, Union power, quangoes and commissions ad infinitum, bankster bailouts, etc). And let’s not forget the other taxes hiding around every corner (“speedy” revenue collection, anonymous accusations of “littering”, etc). All sides of politics are guilty, but Labor has “progressively” turned it into an art form since the 80′s. A massive cleanout is long overdue.

    Long gone are the days when the public “service” (that’s become a misnomer in itself) was not beset by partisan manipulation of appointments from the top to the bottom in all departments and agencies. Turning the tide might require more than a “King Canute stand” by the populace at large. It might also take a severe recession, or worse, to wake up the sleeping chooks that the foxes have found the keys to the door, they are well and truly inside, and are busy picking out the next ones to be on the menu.

    80

  • #
    Kevin Lohse

    “Government shouldn’t be trying to “create jobs” any more than they should be “picking winners” in the market. A governments job is to create the conditions that allow the cleverest, hardest working, and luckiest to mobilize the workforce in the most efficient and fairest way.”

    Jo! Go wash your mouth out with soap. By far the biggest sector of the electorate are not the hard-working, upwardly-mobile winners, people who take pride in achieving financial independence and paying their own way , but the lumpen masses, consumed by envy and resentment who expect others to pay for all they need. If that wasn’t the case, there wouldn’t be Socialism. It follows then, that to form a government in a liberal democracy, a Party must provide bread and circuses for all. That’s why Mr. Abbot will disappoint so many on this blog, and why Mr Abbot will spend as much as Mr and Mrs footnote-in-history would have.

    100

    • #
      MemoryVault

      . . . why Mr Abbot will spend as much as Mr and Mrs footnote-in-history would have.

      We even have a name for this rerun of history, Kevin . . . “The Fraser Years”.

      50

  • #
    Bulldust

    Hey I thought of another way of summing this up….

    Q) What do Labor and Essendon have in common?
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    A) You can’t bet on either to win in September… /boomtish

    60

    • #
      Bulldust

      Just to point out this was posted before the correction indicating that bets were still being taken on the Coalition.

      10

  • #
    jorgekafkazar

    Who counts the votes?

    20

    • #
      Joe V.

      Or do you mean, would the bookies have bet on a Mugabe win, based on his popularity ?

      20

      • #
        jorgekafkazar

        I mean what’s to stop certain parties from tampering with the results? The stakes are large and their ethics have been proven non-existent in every way possible.

        20

        • #
          Andrew McRae

          To rig the vote is quite difficult but I would not say it was absolutely impossible because no system is 100% secure. There is only one obvious attack vector that has even the slightest hope of working, followed by a 2nd plan so unlikely that it could pass for a Hollywood movie plot.

          • Pay off a whole bunch of people to volunteer as scrutineers in 20 electorates more likely to vote Liberal and make sure two of the officials counting the votes in each place are also on your payroll, so the poll is thrown by corrupt counting in just enough seats to ensure victory. Your scrutineers watch the vote being faked and say nothing. This scheme is quite risky due to the number of people that have to keep quiet. Most invigilators are old retired people so you can always make their subsequent murder look like natural causes and nobody will ask any awkward questions and usually no autopsy will be done. Still, finding 120+ dishonest people who will act cool under pressure is difficult.
          ..OR…
          • This ludicrous scheme still requires many conscripts who have to be silenced after the event, but because they don’t have to be part of the vote count procedure they don’t have to pass any background checks so common crooks can be used who are cheaper to hire and won’t be missed when they “retire”. AT ALL POLLING PLACES IN EACH OF 20 ELECTORATES: Use the published electoral roll to estimate how many fake ballots are needed for each polling place. Spend the preceding week paying your thugs to write out ballots in your favour and put them in a big box, one for each polling place. Wait until after 6pm. When you’re sure the counting is about to begin, cut the power to the building and start a siren blaring outside. In the ensuing confusion and darkness your thugs will have about 20 seconds to enter the room, bring in the box of fake votes, pick up the real ballot box, and leave while shutting the door behind them. Restore power. With any luck the staff will begin counting the fake votes without noticing the switch. In polling places handling thousands of voters there is probably more than one box, but having one box almost entirely loaded in your favour may still be enough. Even if several polling places realise they all had the same unlikely power failure, they may not suspect the votes were switched and they can’t count the real ones anyway.

          You cannot just bribe the Divisional Returning Officers to enter in your numbers regardless of what the polling places phone in to them, because the polling workers know what the real poll result was and will notice when the result shown on TV doesn’t match what they counted the previous day.
          You cannot just bribe one person inside the AEC national tally room to enter fake count data into the final tally database because again the results shown for electorates won’t match what those scrutineers saw.

          I guess what I’m saying is… our voting system is fairly secure due to high levels of community volunteer involvement and, short of absolutely everyone involved being simultaneously corrupted, it’s difficult to rig the vote counting without being detected.

          One ABC news reader last week was chomping at the bit¹ to introduce electronic voting machines. I’m sure he just wanted to spare voters the hassle of manipulating giant 1.2m-wide Senate ballots, with the eventual side-effect of creating an USA-style unauditable election-rigging system being a completely accidental unforeseen consequence.
           
          _________________________
          ¹- pun intended

          20

        • #
          Angry

          People should realize that it is perfectly legal to use a PEN rather than the pencil provided at polling booths.

          This is stated on the Australian Electoral Commission website FAQ ……..

          There is, however nothing to prevent an elector from marking his or her ballot paper with a pen if they so wish.:-

          http://www.aec.gov.au/faqs/voting_australia.htm

          11

          • #
            Yonniestone

            Thanks for the info Angry, this raises an interesting event that occurred last time I voted.
            When I handed my completed ballot papers to the polling official I noticed they didn’t initial the top right hand corner as it states here http://www.aec.gov.au/voting/polling.htm when I queried this I was told it would be done later and it wasn’t vital to do straight away.
            I pointed out it could be a way to dispose of certain votes by dishonest people (I trust nobody) and not satisfied I asked to witness the polling official initial my ballot papers, now I may be over cautious and off the mark here but if anyone with knowledge or experience in this matter can chime in I would be grateful.

            40

            • #
              Angry

              I have always folded my completed voting papers and placed them into the slots of the relevant boxes provided.

              I would NEVER hand them to any person to do with them what they like ……..

              10

              • #
                Yonniestone

                Correction, story is ass about, it was when I collected the ballot papers they have to be initialed. :)

                10

  • #
    Eddie Sharpe

    Pardon my, but what motivates a bookmaker to pay out early ?
    Have they just got too much to lose if, for whatever reason, it went the other way ?
    What am I missing (apart from the obvious ) ?

    30

    • #
      MemoryVault

      Cheap advertising.

      Sportsbet is wholly owned by Paddy Power, a conglomerate of Irish bookies. They have form for this kind of stunt. It’s all good, cheap advertising.

      Keep in mind how bookmakers work. They calculate the odds they offer, based on the entire field, plus profit. In other words, the $1.5 million paid out is more than covered by bets people made on Labor winning. Assuming a Coalition win, those Labor backers have done their dough.

      The only way Sportsbet could now lose, is if Labor wins, and even then the monetary damage to Paddy Power would be minimal. They also own the other big Aussie online betting agency, IASBet. The two even share the same data base and offer identical odds. But IASBet are not offering an early payout.

      You can bet this little stunt was worked out months ago, and any surprise outcome was factored into the odds offered across the two companies ever since then.

      60

  • #
    Maverick

    I think Lyons will go the way of the Coalition. I live next to the South Esk River, just ten minutes west of Launceston. The river is the Lyons/Bass boundary so whilst Lyons does not officially incorporate Launceston many Launceston workers live in Lyons.

    Dick Adams is the incumbent – he is the big guy that’s had his busiest few years ever because he has had to count caucus leadership challenge votes three times.

    Northern Tas has a serious commercial issue in that we need more regular and reliable freight services to Melbourne and export destinations. Yesterday Albanese came into town flanked by Dick Adams and the Bass incumbent to solve the problem. And you know what his solution is? – to offer $37.5 million in grants to small businesses to get “export ready”.

    Their solution has nothing to do with encouraging ships, nothing, nada, yet the lack of regular ships is 100% the problem.

    Labor are clueless and I think (and hope) that big Dick might not rise on polling day.

    30

    • #
      Rod Stuart

      Many years ago the Li’l Abner comic strip by Al Capp made fun of Senator Jack S. Phogbound. When Jack S. was about to explain what he did in Washington Mammy Yokum said “We don’t care what you do, Jack S., so long as we’re down here and you’re up there.”
      His campaign motto was “Thar’s no Jack S. like OUR Jack S.”

      The incumbent in Lyons ought to have the motto, “Thar’s no big dick like OUR BIG DICK”.

      70

  • #

    Oops! Sportsbet twitter messaged me to say they are still taking bets. I’ve corrected that headline and tweet. I just couldn’t see how they could take, say bets for the Coalition at $1.03 and pay out immediately. I mean if I borrow $1m, does that mean I earn $30k tomorrow?… Obviously that can’t be right.

    20

    • #
      MemoryVault

      .
      They only paid out on bets placed before this morning (9.00am I think). Bets placed after that go through to the election.

      But yes, if you can borrow a million interest free for nine days, you can make $30,000.00 on current odds.

      30

      • #
        Eddie Sharpe

        3% isn’t bad for such a short term deposit. If ALP does get in again, may be better of as a dependent.(with nothing left to lose).

        30

  • #
    Dave

    Headline:

    Peter Beattie campaign signs stolen.

    I was at a work smoko room today near Gympie, and outside was a 6 X 3 sheet of plasterboard standing upright against the wall under the awning, with a campaign sign with Peter Beattie on it. I asked, the foreman inside what was the reason for the electioneering promo on the wall outside? I think the ALP donated them, these guys are not the sort to go out and steal these valuable campaign promotional materials just for fun.

    He started to explain that every day since the election was announced, the boys get signs of ALP candidates and play darts at lunchtime, the plasterboard is to stop darts damaging the outside of the building. And this is at a government work site. I had to work, but would have enjoyed staying for the lunch darts game.

    But he still had a Peter Slipper sign full of holes from last week (suppose Slippery was ALP for a short time) he proudly showed everyone.

    30

  • #
    Spiny

    The official unemployment rate is not the true figure, it is based on a sample survey plus anyone who works an hour a week is considered employed. This method was brought in to mask the true figures.
    I am a retired public servant, and when we did the unemployment figures it was the total of all recipients on unemployment benefit PLUS those registered with the Commonwealth Employment Service as unemployed, not in receipt of benefits, but looking for full-time work. The only ones not included would be professionals (relatively small number) registered with private agencies.
    So you see how understated the true unemployment figures are likely to be.
    By my estimate, I would say we are creeping up to at least the 10%. Then there are all those people who only have part-time jobs, and the majority of work in Australia has been casualised. Permanent work is a thing of the past unless your a public servant.

    60

    • #
      Sceptical Sam

      That’s interesting, Spiny.

      The trend also tells the story.

      For example, when the Labor incompetents came to power in 2007 they inherited an unemployment rate of 4.2%. It now stands at 5.7%.

      That’s a 36% increase in unemployment in just seven years.

      Why would anybody vote the incompetents back into government?

      40

      • #
        Angry

        In April 2013 an estimated 1.15 million Australians (9.3% of the workforce) were unemployed. This is down 1.5% from last month and is the lowest level of unemployment in Australia for nearly a year, since May 2012 (8.2%, 997,000).
        The Australian workforce* was 12,437,000, (down from a record high in March) comprising 7,473,000 full-time workers (down 198,000); 3,810,000 part-time workers (up 206,000) and 1,154,000 looking for work (down 215,000) according to the Roy Morgan monthly employment estimates.
        A further 1,100,000 Australians were under-employed – working part-time and looking for more work. This is 164,000 more than a month ago and represents 8.8% of the workforce* (up 1.4%).

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    Joe Lalonde

    Jo,

    I have two youtube videos that detail the future of our economies…
    One is on Britain and the other is the REAL debt of the US…NOT SHOWN BY THE MEDIA.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AYVZKpH3pnM

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VwmlZXxhSUU&list=UU76wWTDZ0Jv5Eo_dwEYa0WQ

    This path is being followed by every country due to our totally screwed up system of politics and economics…AN EXPERIMENTAL FAILURE!

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    MemoryVault

    .
    Totally off-topic, and in fact, totally off-blog. However I’m hoping against hope that Jo and the mods will forgive me my trespass, just this once, and indulge an old man in his new-found hobby.

    I have developed a sudden and urgent passion for aircraft spotting. Specifically heavy-lift military aircraft. Particularly C-17 GlobeMasters, but also any militarised large passenger jets – probably Boeing, in battleship grey, with either USAF or RAAF insignia. I’m looking for about twenty of them.

    The ones I am looking for, but hope don’t exist, will probably be at airports within a couple of hour’s flight time from Darwin. That means Darwin, Port Hedland, Alice Springs, Brisbane, Townsville and Cairns, but quite possibly even further afield.

    So if you’ve flown recently, or are flying in the near future, and have noticed/notice anything untoward, I’d really appreciate a heads-up, either through a comment here (hopefully with mods and Jo’s permission), or via an email to Jo, for forwarding to me (again, hopefully with Jo’s permission).

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      MemoryVault,

      umm, what better place for a whole stack of, er, U.S.A.F. military troop carriers to fly into relatively unnoticed than to RAAF Base Tindal, near Katherine. You might also include the bare bases at Scherger and also Curtin, although both now are refugee processing centres I think.

      And probably even more out of the way and any inbound flights would probably never be noticed would perhaps be to the RAAF Base at Learmonth at NW Cape, near the USN Comms base at Harold E Holt.

      Just sayin’.

      Tony.

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      Andrew McRae

      I have my suspicions about the origin of your new “hobby” and if my assumption is correct then I hope your hobby is extremely boring and fruitless. And of course I mean that in the nicest possible way.

      M.A.D. has worked so far.

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        MemoryVault

        .
        Nah, Andrew, none of that even crossed my mind. I was merely thinking of the 3,000 fully armed American “tourists” currently holidaying in the NT, who might just want to suddenly go home – or “somewhere” – in a hurry, sometime soon. I hear Cyprus is nice, this time of year.

        However, since you have brought up the Syrian situation, I thought this might be helpful explaining things. It was apparently in a letter to a London newspaper, and pasted into the “comments” section of an article on the ABC yesterday.

        “Iran is backing Assad. Gulf states are against Assad. Assad is against Muslim Brotherhood. Muslim brotherhood and Obama are against General Sisi, but Gulf states are pro-Sisi which means they are against Muslim Brotherhood. Iran is Pro-Hamas, but Hamas is backing Muslim Brotherhood. Obama is backing Muslim Brotherhood, yet Hamas is against the US. Gulf States are pro-US. But Turkey is with Gulf States against Assad; yet Turkey is pro-Muslim Brotherhood against General Sisi. And General Sisi is being backed by the Gulf States.”

        Hope that makes it clear for everybody.

        Full article here.

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      Angry

      The globemasters often fly over our home and make an approach to the Coffs Harbour airport but then bank away at the last moment and do not land…..

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  • #
    Joe Lalonde

    Jo,

    Here is an interesting website I just came across that covers many up to date happenings from over a hundred websites at once…Brief bios before clicking on the actual stories…

    VERY COOL actually!

    http://thelibertymill.com/

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    • #
      Robert

      Thanks Joe, that looks interesting. Bookmarked for further perusal as time permits. Fall semester just started so between work and classes time doesn’t permit much these days :o /

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    Andrew McRae

    First Kevin4Kevin told us the Coalition had a $70 bilion black hole in their budget, which even Their ABC’s “Fact Check” programme didn’t believe.
    Now Kevin4Kevin has backpedalled enormously and says the Coalition has only a $10 billion black hole.
    If Kev keeps up this performance he’ll have paid for the Coalition’s policies by Monday! :D

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    Andrew McRae

    Wait, stop, hold up, here’s the bi-partisan policy solution to BOTH broadband and people smugglers! FTTB! :D

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    dp

    It sounds like Oz is as anti-exceptionlism as is the US. The push for equality of outcome, mediocrity at any expense, is as unlofty a goal as any nation can set for its citizenry, but that is what is driving our society and has been for some time. Perhaps we could show the world how it works by applying it to the Olympics – don’t acknowledge individual successes – laud the collective. Everyone’s a winner – a new age without the stain of competition, rejoice the trivialization of effort.

    Come to think of it, this is already happening with the Motion Picture Academy Awards and the MTV Video Music Awards. There ya go – mediocrity sells, we all win!

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    Robert

    Well since the coming election down there is more or less the topic I hope all of our Australian brothers and sisters have better results than we did here in the states with our last election. I gave up trying to understand your political meanderings, with the silliness that has become the norm in our own I can’t even claim to understand it any longer. At least it sounds like voter fraud would be harder to perpetrate there than it seems to be here. Maybe it will help.

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    crakar24

    OT,

    But it looks as though the jig is up, hopefully people finally wake up to what is going on.

    If you are worried about a NWO well look no further than here as the crusade rolls on.

    http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/should_the_west_really_bomb_syria_for_al_qaeda/

    Cheers

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    pat

    crakar24 -

    why hasn’t Bolt been demanding indictments for all the aussie al qaeda fighting in syria? why hasn’t the Coalition been demanding indictments? LOL. oh what a tangled web we weave…

    16 April: ABC 7.30 Report
    CHRIS UHLMANN: Are you concerned by reports that quite a few Australians are joining up to fight in Syria?
    BOB CARR: Yes, I am. There was a global figure quoted on the weekend in an interview I did that I can’t confirm or deny. The number of Australians who actually had been participating in the fighting would be a good deal lower than that 200 figure that was quoted. That 200 figure, if it is right, would include people who are raising money, expressing sympathy, people who have been described to me as Jihadist tourists turning up in a trouble spot. The number actually fighting for a terrorist entity is much smaller. And therefore they can be assured, and I send this message to that tiny section of the Australian community, they can be assured that they will be under the careful, loving attention of our security agencies and every move they take will be watched from now on.
    http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2013/s3738569.htm

    the aussie jihadis in Syria must be quaking in their boots & David Hicks/Mamdouh Habib must be bemused:

    Wikipedia: Foreign rebel fighters in the Syrian civil war
    Both European converts and immigrant or immigrant children have gone to fight for the Syrian opposition. This includes the Netherlands (with leading number of fighters) and followed by Great Britain, Belgium and France…
    There were also Australians fighting for the Syrian opposition camp, despite warnings from their government that they could be prosecuted for terrorism amid fears they could return home and carry out attacks. Australian security agencies estimated about 200 Australians to be fighting in the country with dozens said to be part of the Nusra Front…
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_rebel_fighters_in_the_Syrian_civil_war

    fears terrorists could become terrorists!

    hopefully, given approx 90% of the public in US/UK are against the humanitarian(?) bombing of Syria, & Russia/China/Iran/Egypt are against the attack, we won’t be reigning down cruise missiles on Syria anytime soon, tho our blood lust seemingly knows no bounds.

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    • #
      crakar24

      Pat,

      This is not the first time chemicals have been used

      http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=58558

      Here the UN state it has “concrete suspicions” whatever that means the rebels used sarin.

      Here the US government reject Russian claims stating the same thing and blame Syria

      http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world/2013-07/10/c_132526737.htm

      Tangled webs indeed, do the rebels have red lines?

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      • #
        Rereke Whakaaro

        Sorry for going off topic, but this is top of brain right now (and Crakar started it):

        If Sarin is used, you don’t get hospitals full of survivors, only morgues full of bodies. Also, chemical weapons do not discriminate between friend and foe in an urban environment. Therefore, Sarin would only used by people who did not know what they were doing, and that would not be the government forces. The UN and the Russians are correct.

        The West is mounting a propaganda war, and we have yet to figure out why.

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        • #
          FijiDave

          Rereke,

          The West is mounting a propaganda war, and we have yet to figure out why.

          .

          Exactly. I’ve listening to our so-called media, them that purport to disseminate the news in a fair and non-partisan way, and I have yet to hear anything about the possibility of false-flag activity. It doesn’t make sense that the Assad lot would use sarin when UN inspectors are in the vicinity. In the videos, where are the gas masks? Where is the protective clothing?

          I call BS on the whole thing, until, like the CAGW nonsense, someone comes up with empirical evidence to the contrary.

          The Yanks have been battling el Qaeda, et al, for 12 years now – are they now going to continue battling in one paddock against them, and with them in another paddock?

          We, the great unwashed are, as usual, being fed a line, and we don’t need the bookies to tell us that, either.

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          incoherent rambler

          Rereke you are correct. The LDT for sarin (cannot recall the number) is miniscule. Ends things very quickly.

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        • #
          crakar24

          RW,

          The west are mounting their war on Syria/Iran so they can install their central banking system.

          If you like you can you tube “all wars are bankers wars” to get a good idea of what is/has been going on for over 100 years.

          The video is crap but what the guy says makes a lot of sense. Dont worry about some stupid greeny NWO this is the NWO happening right now.

          Cheers

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    Rereke Whakaaro

    Well, we have the Sceptics Handbook (1 & 2) to explain climate science in term that even a Public Servant can understand.

    What we now need is the Australian Electoral Handbook to explain how Aussie elections work, in terms simple enough for a post-normal scientist to understand.

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    Brian G Valentine

    I am sorry that Australia suffers Cult of Personality Politics, which we have suffered here in the US since the first Obama election

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    Andrew Barnham

    To what extent are the odds represent a no-consequence balance of outcome probabilities? Maybe they’ve had a huge number of people bet on coalition and as a result they need to hedge against these losses by adjusting odds to mitigate this. Seems quite premature and outright reckless for a bookmaker to call it and pay out : or maybe it is a calculated move as they are enjoying a huge amount of free publicity out of it. Although it is arguably Coalitions to lose, Labour are still in with a serious chance by my reckoning.

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    [...] Obama stelde het moment nog eens uit. Maar nu kan het dus down under gebeuren en al binnen 4 dagen!Op Jo Nova lezen we dat de verkiezingen al zijn beslist nu de bookies 15 keer de inleg betalen bij winst Labour en 1,5 [...]

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