Assume the IPCC is right. Assume that Australia would have kept emitting the same proportion of global emissions of CO2 for the next four decades — despite the rapid catch up in emissions-per-capita as the developing world gets cars, frozen foods, and holidays-in-Bali. Then assume somehow, theoretically, we might be able to completely stop emissions of CO2 suddenly (by Tuesday). What’s the most generous possibility of success we could get from massive Australian sacrifice and green action now? Answer: Tops, absolutely as high as it gets, exceeding beyond our wildest expectations — if Australia stopped emitting CO2 tomorrow, we could save … 15 thousandths of one degree of warming (0.0154 °C) by 2050. Spiffy eh?
David has done the number crunching that we’re “sure” the ALP has done many many times as they redirect billions of Australian dollars in search of a world that’s immeasurably (and un-measurably) cooler. — JN
CARBON TAX AND TEMPERATURE
Dr. David Evans, 14 March 2011
BY HOW MUCH WILL A CARBON DIOXIDE TAX REDUCE AUSTRALIA’S TEMPERATURE?
Suppose Australia reduced its emissions over what they would otherwise be. The effect, according to the IPCC’s theory of man-made global warming, is:
|Average reduction in Australia’s emissions from now to 2050||Decrease in the temperature in 2050 due to Australia’s reductions|
|0 %||0.0000 °C|
|5 %||0.0007 °C|
|10 %||0.0015 °C|
|20 %||0.0031 °C|
|50 %||0.0077 °C|
|100 %||0.0154 °C|
Notice that if Australia shut down entirely, and emitted no CO2 starting today, it would lower the temperature in 2050 by just 0.0154 °C (on IPCC figures).
The effect of a carbon tax on Australia’s carbon emissions is unknown, but is probably small given the small effect of petrol price increases on petrol usage.
Calculations: In this short PDF (warning: contains equations).
Skeptics say: The climate establishment have made numerous exaggerations. The temperature increase due to increased carbon dioxide levels is about one tenth of what the IPCC say. A CO2 level of 507 ppm in 2050, up from the current 390 ppm (parts per million, that is, 0.039%) (generously allowing for 50% higher carbon level growth than current), would raise temperatures by about 0.12°C, which is not worth doing much about.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Dr David Evans consulted full-time for the Australian Greenhouse Office (now the Department of Climate Change) from 1999 to 2005, and part-time 2008 to 2010, modeling Australia’s carbon in plants, debris, mulch, soils, and forestry and agricultural products. Evans is a mathematician and engineer, with six university degrees including a PhD from Stanford University in electrical engineering. The area of human endeavor with the most experience and sophistication in dealing with feedbacks and analyzing complex systems is electrical engineering, and the most crucial and disputed aspects of understanding the climate system are the feedbacks. The evidence supporting the idea that CO2 emissions were the main cause of global warming reversed itself from 1998 to 2006, causing Evans to move from being a warmist to a skeptic.
The climate establishment is exaggerating and cheating: Climate Corruption
Inquiries to david.evans AT sciencespeak.com.
* The 2mm sea level rise calculation is from this similar post (which used different calculations) Shut down Australia and save 0.01 degrees.