JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


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Breaking News: World’s third largest economy bails on Kyoto II’

Source national post news.

“Japan will not inscribe its target under the Kyoto protocol on any conditions or under any circumstances.”

Japan is the third largest economy in the world. In absolute, unequivocal terms it has just announced it will not be extending the Kyoto agreement.

It’s hard to see how a carbon trading scheme can continue to grow when major emitters are pulling out.

“The delicately balanced global climate talks in Cancún suffered a serious setback last night when Japan categorically stated its opposition to extending the Kyoto protocol – the binding international treaty that commits most of the world’s richest countries to making emission cuts.

The Kyoto protocol was adopted in Japan in 1997 by major emitting countries, who committed themselves to cut emissions by an average 5% on 1990 figures by 2012.

However the US congress refused to ratify it and remains outside the protocol.”

From The Guardian: Japan refuses to extend Kyoto

Presumably this is the perfect time then for the Gillard Government to launch Australia (with it’s minor player, 800 billion dollar, GDP) into a sacrificial symbolic scheme that the rest of the world is abandoning.

‘The forthrightness of the statement took people by surprise,’ said one British official.

If it proves to be a new, formal position rather than a negotiating tactic, it could provoke a walk-out by some developing countries and threaten a breakdown in the talks. Last night diplomats were urgently trying to clarify the position.

Japan — owes some $13 Billion thanks to Kyoto. They must be regretting ever signing it.

Japanese taxpayers will pay for two-thirds of that nation’s excess, New Carbon Finance estimated, based on the current sharing between state funding and industry.

Jimbo commenting at WUWT points out “that the signs were there just a week ago”:

Reuters – November 25, 2010
Japan says extending Kyoto pact is “meaningless”
“European countries from this year have proposed that it could be okay to extend the commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol if it is joined by major emitters, but we have made clear that this is not acceptable,” Minamikawa told a news conference.

“Even if the issue of extending the Kyoto Protocol becomes a major item on the agenda in Cancun and Japan finds itself isolated, Japan will not agree to this.”.
http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFTOE6AO01G20101125

The stakes are changing in this poker game.

Who knows — maybe the Japanese Translation of The Skeptics Handbook made a small contribution :-)

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  • #
    Rick Bradford

    Japan is also leading the way in the industrial exploitation of methane clathrates, which have far greater reserves than coal, oil and traditional ‘natural gas’. The sun is rising again over The Land of the Rising Sun.

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    Bruce of Newcastle

    China has been sniffing around the Senkaku islands and is being a bully over rare earth metals. If I were in the Japanese Government I really would not like to kneecap myself when I know the Chinese have no intention of kneecapping themselves too. So this is a political statement – “if you guys think you can pull a swifty because you think we are old and decadent, pull the other one its got bells on”.

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    Phillip Bratby

    Don’t forget us poverty stricken citizens in the UK who are going full tilt with our Climate Change Act to reduce CO2 emissions by 80% by 2020, whilst we are freezing our n***s off. -15.7degC in the balmy SW of England this morning. Oh for a bit of sanity from Loony Huhne, who is enjoying himself in Cancun whilst the UK has ground to a halt.

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  • #
    matty

    If the Chicago Climate Exchange has already closed, and Kyoto was the only thing keeping the European one alive, there will be some morose traders right now. I’m guessing that when Cancun is all done the carbon price will be sliding terminally. I see Gore right now with a phone pressed into his head.

    Do I recall correctly – have the BBC ploughed a heap of their retirement momies into carbon????????

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  • #
    Adolf Balik

    Not long ago I read an article at web, which I cannot find any more. Transfer of green technologies from rich to developing countries was dealt in it and many other things. I guess it was a report from a conference.

    It also included a notice of an Indian diplomat who told something in the way: “If developed countries don’t make a treaty for Kyoto to continue at least then it is hardly any point to drag developing nations to Cancun at all.”

    Well, it looks like a total collapse in which is no point but abolishment of Kyoto and the rest of irrational carbon crusade.

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  • #
    Rereke Whaakaro

    Rick Bradford: # 1

    Japan … in the industrial exploitation of methane clathrates, which have far greater reserves than coal, oil and traditional ‘natural gas’

    Two slight corrections: 1) As far as I am aware methane clathrates are not industrialised yet – there are still some problems to solve – but looking good. 2) The reserves are far greater than all of the other sources of carbon put together – the total reserves are unknown because they are simply too huge.

    matty: # 4

    … and Kyoto was the only thing keeping the European one alive, there will be some morose traders right now.

    The European scheme is separate from the Kyoto agreement. In fact it was started a year before Kyoto, and it will continue even if Kyoto is not extended. If you are in Europe, then I feel for you, for there is no respite on the horizon. Also, a lot of countries, including Russia, have a lot of surplus credits (EUA’s). These are worth Euros, so they will not want to see them lapse. Mind you, the Euro may well collapse, which will not be at all pretty, but it may take the EU carbon trading scheme with it.

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  • #
    Mark

    Can you believe the crap published here?

    http://www.tcdailyplanet.net/blog/gerde033/delicate-dilemma-disillusionment-cancun

    Still, you get a sense of the despair these galoots are feeling. Can’t help thinking that’s a very good thing!

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  • #
    Dave N

    Of course, Gillard will predictably come out with some tripe along the lines of: “we’re not going to wimp out like Japan”. Her ignorance knows no bounds.

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  • #
    John Canuck

    I live in British Columbia, Canada. Our provincial government recently imposed a 10 cent/liter green tax on gasoline. I wonder if they will stop collecting the tax now that the Kyoto agreement is merely a joke?

    Nahh. This is BC, which is short for BRING CASH!!!!

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  • #
    Joe Lalonde

    You think of all the trillions of dollars spent on trying to proove CO2 causes global warming. From Ice cores to the massive amounts spent during the years in research only to be WRONG!

    Current science does not include a revolving planet nor the energies the planet provides. As far as science is concerned all the energy on this planet came from the sun including wind energy. Although you stop the planet and a wind sheer of 1669.8km/hr would fly off from the planet.

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  • #
    Bob Malloy

    Off Topic, What NBN Television was telling Novocastrians tonight

    2010 on track to be one of three warmest years since 1850

    The year 2010 is almost certain to rank among the three warmest years since the beginning of instrumental climate records in 1850, with the possibility of topping the chart, the United Nations World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on December 2 2010, the UN News Service reports.

    Surface air temperatures over land were above normal across most parts of the world, with the most extreme occurring in two major regions – most of Canada and Greenland with mean annual temperatures 3 degrees Celsius or more above normal in parts of west Greenland and the eastern Canadian Arctic, and most of the northern half of Africa and southern Asia as far east as the western half of China with temperatures 1 to 3 degrees Celsius above normal.

    Hallelujah I’m convinced, “sarc off.

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  • #

    Regarding 2010 being the warmest – see here for the press release details.

    I’m assuming this is one and the same, and they say

    “The provisional WMO annual Statement contains information for 2010 on global temperature, regional temperature anomalies, global precipitation, droughts, flooding and storms, El Niño/La Niña, tropical cyclones, Antarctic ozone hole and Arctic sea ice extent. The final data for 2010 will be as usual published in March 2011″

    Note the word ‘provisional’; although given the way the press are carrying this you would think it was a done deal. Also no links to the actual report I can find..

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  • #
    DougS

    Phillip Bratby:
    December 3rd, 2010 at 6:33 pm

    …Oh for a bit of sanity from Loony Huhne….

    Sorry Phillip – you’ve got more chance of being struck by lightning.

    Huhne is as nutty as they come!

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  • #

    Canada stepped back from the brink of madness…
    http://www.torontosun.com/news/canada/2010/11/17/16186176.html

    …and now Japan.

    There may yet be hope!

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  • #
    David

    Perhaps surprising to note that the Mafia are taking a healthy (?) interest in wind farms in Italy…
    Gone all ‘green’..? Not a bit of it – you can sum up their interest in one word.
    Money.
    Like the ‘la-la-la I-can’t-hear-you’ government in the UK, the Italian government gives incentives to ‘renewable’ projects – and as everyone knows, without these, wind farms are just not viable.
    I have another proposal – which should attract a Renewable Obligation Certificate – if not a Nobel Prize..
    Instead of burying CO2 – or whatever hairbrained scheme is in vogue this week – why not get giant fans (powered by clean coal power stations) to blow the CO2 at the wind turbines..? That way you’d get wind power 24/7 – instead of 25% of the time..!
    I know – its brilliant, isn’t it..??

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  • #
    Patrick

    Hmm, must be another climate conference going on… The CBC is running “news” reports about how this was the “warmest year ever” in Canada, how the drastic “climate change” in the Arctic is now showing up further south, how we are being hammered by more and more “extreme weather events” yada yada yada. “Environmental Correspondent” Margo MacDairmuid sounds nearly hysterical as she recounts the litany of climate threats that she sees. Gasp – it rained in Ottawa and Montreal yesterday instead of snowing. Somebody must DO SOMETHING! They must have, because it’s snowing this morning.

    And who do they interview for comments outside of the news breaks? Some VP of the “International Climate Action Coalition”. True believers all of them.

    Also, the local weather expert at CBC Ottawa, Ian Black, is now referred to as “our resident climatologist” instead of “meteorologist”. While he has always seemed to be a competent meteorologist, not afraid to differ from the official short term forecasts, I doubt he is qualified to be called a “climatologist”.

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  • #
    Mervyn Sullivan

    The great global warming swindle is down on its knees … its inevitable decapitation will occur in 2011 … (and remember, you heard it here first).

    2010 has seen the IPCC’s AR4 report utterly exposed for what it is … a fraud… not the ‘gold standard in climate science’ … rather, it’s the ‘fools gold in climate science’!

    The fundamental principle that underpins the IPCC’s science is the green house gas theory … and that’s now been demolished (actually it was demolished 40 years ago by NASA in relation to putting man on the moon).

    And now, here is the latest controversy facing the IPCC. I provide the following link:

    http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/30577

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  • #
    Brian G Valentine

    All this talk of a doomed planet, it is so depressing

    Time for some FUN

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    [...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Rob, Prodigy. Prodigy said: Breaking News: Worlds third largest economy bails on Kyoto II « JoNova: Breaking News: Worlds third largest econ… http://bit.ly/eroQAh [...]

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  • #
    Joe Veragio

    NEWS NOW ! :- For anyone who can get it BBC World Service is currently broadcasting a special on Climate Change, for the rest of this hour…

    Plenty of the same old, same old from well meaning innocents that know no better …

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  • #

    Japan emerged from almost total devastation in 1945 to be the 2nd largest economic might in the last century – and in less than 30 years! They did not do that by being stupid. They see China getting all the passes as China passed them for #2 (and soon to pass the US for #1). They are not going to relegate their economy to a 3rd world status based upon a voodoo religion.

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  • #
    Brian G Valentine

    Figure out how to get the West off that stupid religion, Phil, and you’ll save Western Civilisation.

    This is neither exaggeration nor hyperbole of the urgency of the need to do this

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  • #

    The Campaign Against Climate Change are running out of money!!!

    From the Guardian – Ahead of the Campaign Against Climate Change’s march in the snow tomorrow…..
    “Phil Thornill – Founder/National Co-ordinator.
    And he’s worried about his organisation, Campaign Against Climate Change, which is, he says frankly, “running out of money massively. I’m exhausted, we’ve been running on risible funds for years now, and to be honest I don’t know what we’re going to do.”Given CACC’s position as one of the very first groups campaigning straightforwardly on climate change, it is indeed worrying that they, sitting in the middle of the campaign spectrum from conservative to radical, should be going bust.”
    —————

    Makes an interesting read.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2010/dec/03/campaign-against-climate-change-march-thornhill

    the comments are amusing

    they are behind Skeptic Alerts:

    http://www.realclimategate.org/2010/11/bishop-hill-targeted-sceptic-alerts/

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  • #
    Joe Veragio


    “We don’t burn fossil fuels just to annoy Al Gore”

    Bjorn Lomborg on ‘The Climate Connection’, BBC World Service, just now, commenting on the prosperity carbon has brought us.

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  • #
    Bulldust

    I thought the following piece in The Australian defending it’s neutral position on climate change reporting interesting:

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/climate-debate-no-place-for-hotheads/story-e6frg6zo-1225965406382

    I wrote (assuming it is published):

    “I certainly follow the climate-related articles on all the major Australian papers, and of them the reporting in The Australian has been the most balanced and diverse. It is unfortunate that those with more extreme views such as those of Clive Hamilton refuse to acknowledge the uncertainties in the science, let alone the computer models used to predict catastrophic future warming. This is something that is very poorly communicated by most advocates of the AGW (Anthropogenic Global Warming) view.

    To be fair the ABC also gives some space to non-AGW writers, but the West Australian, the Age and SMH are extremely one-sided in their reporting.

    It would serve The Australian well, in my humble opinion, to run a series of articles on the science, perhaps synthesising the main areas of the IPCC report. If you sit down and have a sensible discussion with “skeptics” and AGW supporters, you quickly find out that there is far more common ground than not.

    We both agree that CO2 causes some direct warming (all else being equal), that CO2 levels in the atmosphere are increasing, and that man causes much of this increase. It is the climate feedbacks assumed by the IPCC we disagree with.”

    I realise there might be some contention about the second last statement, about man causing much of the increase in CO2, but I was out of characters to post that in detail /shrug.

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  • #
    Llew Jones

    Is this not a negative consequence of the BOM unable to make short term predictions on the basis of known weather drivers because it has taken AGW far too seriously? Along the lines the hottest year on record with the implication that rainfall would be lower and climates across Australia drier.

    Had it been able to make regional predictions of a significantly wetter spring to autumn, much earlier, that is before it was too late, then farmers would have been able to make choices about crops and or increasing livestock numbers to match the weather.

    This is another reason why those professionals, blinded to the obvious weather drivers, by the myth of AGW should be pensioned off.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/intense-la-nina-pattern-delivers-more-rain-than-usual/story-e6frg6nf-1225965402304

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  • #
    MadJak

    Apparently Christiana Figueres, executive secretary of the U.N. FCCC has seen the film 2012 and has woven that films apocalypse into the Cancun agenda…

    “Excellencies, the goddess Ixchel would probably tell you that a tapestry is the result of the skillful interlacing of many threads,”….”we will admire the policy tapestry that you have woven together and think back fondly to Cancun and the inspiration of Ixchel.”

    she says in her opening address.

    Ixchel was a mayan goddess – you know the mayans – the nutters who tortured and killed their children to appease their gods.

    The only tapestry that’s showing up is the web of lies exaggerations abuse and manipulation as far as I can tell.

    The link is here

    Excuse me, I need to clear out my eyes from laughing so hard. Who said the catastrafarians have no sense of humor? Oh yeah, that’s right, she was being serious…

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  • #
    Roy Hogue

    @7,

    “I saw a drowned polar bear the other day,” said Ronald Jumeau from the Republic of Seychelles. “What are we doing? Something is wrong here. A natural swimmer is drowning.”

    Quick! Tell Al Gore. He’ll be glad to be proved right after all.

    On the other hand I wonder where he managed to see a drowned Polar Bear. These folks won’t go out of their way far enough to get their hands dirty with some actual observation. And the Seychelles might as well be a million miles from the nearest Polar Bear — or do they live in the Indian Ocean now? Maybe a computer model…?

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  • #
    Thumbnail

    If anyone cares to watch this bit of chicanery, scaring kids for Christmas. Santa might not come if his runway melts due to climate change. Will these bastuards stop at nothing? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iX06r-NoCxQ&feature=player_embedded#!

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  • #
    Tel

    Ixchel was a mayan goddess – you know the mayans – the nutters who tortured and killed their children to appease their gods.

    I think you are being a bit unfair on the Mayans there. It aint easy to find a religion that hasn’t done a bit of torture and murder here and there where necessary to keep up the shock and awe factor amongst the subjugated. Christianity certainly did it’s fair share, so did the pagan druidism that Christianity attempted to displace. They would all do it again in a blink if they got the opportunity.

    The only tapestry that’s showing up is the web of lies exaggerations abuse and manipulation as far as I can tell.

    What a tangled web we weave…

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  • #
    matty

    RE: Tel #30 – “they would do it all again in the blink of an eye”

    The idea of christianity waiting to go on a murderous rampage is basically nonsense, it won’t happen. 23 of the 25 biggest charities in Australia are church based. Atheists don’t come close when it comes to parting with the hard earned. The present holds a lot more water than the past in my book. Critics of Christianity always prefer to look back.

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  • #

    Apologies the link to Japan owing $13 billion was broken. It’s now fixed.

    Spain, Italy and Japan are going to pay $33bn for exceeding their Kyoto allowances:
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=akEM_x0ximjk

    Thanks Roy for that notification.

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  • #
    Llew Jones

    Bulldust: @25

    Though Graham Lloyd asks for comments I haven’t seen any printed for his articles that I have read. He probably would be seen as a bit of a traitor by other environmental reporters.

    On the other hand one could criticize him and the editor of the Australian for believing in a significant role for AGW in climate change on the basis of the “science” without having a clue, apparently, how fragile that science is.

    Their AGW belief lacks numbers. Once one starts looking at the caveats on the heating effect of added atmospheric CO2 it is hard to see how a rational observer can continue the charade about the necessity to do something about “carbon pollution” to control “Earth’s average temperature” and thus,in their understanding, “climate change”.

    Despite that The Australian and the Herald Sun (with Andrew Bolt) is streets ahead of the rest, as you say, in terms of some exposure to more rational approaches to AGW. I notice the WSJ occupies a similar place as the Australian, in the US context.

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  • #

    Joanne Nova:
    December 4th, 2010 at 2:34 pm

    Spain, Italy and Japan are going to pay $33bn for exceeding their Kyoto allowances:

    Who do they pay?
    What happens to the monies?
    What is the “administrative” cut? ;) (nudge nudge wink wink)

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  • #
    Nick

    If Cancun results in the EuroCarbon price taking a hit? We may need to watch for economic ramefications.

    The world cannot afford another bubble to burst.

    The USA is straddled with debt, and the Chinese reviewing their exposure.

    The Europeans are bailing out Spain, Greece etc.

    Japan telling Cancun to go jump, because it can’t be held to ransom with Chinese REM, just may be the next straw that breaks the fake market in air’s back.

    There’s a lot of money tied up in that thar Co2. Companies and maybe even economies maybe looking for rescue if it all goes pear shaped due to Cancun’s failure.

    HHHhmmmm, what interesting times we live in :-)

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  • #
    matty

    RE: Nick #35

    I’m with you there. I got corrected back at post #4-5 for postulating the demise of the European Climate Exchange, but at the same time I don’t see how the europeans can keep trading CO2 while the whole thing evaporates. That market was always tied to the expectation of it going global – long term.

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  • #
    Roy Hogue

    Jo @32,

    Maybe it’s time for someone to repudiate that “debt” and say we now see through your scam and it won’t work on us anymore. What would really happen if Japan or Spain did that?

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  • #
    matty

    RE: Roy #37

    Good question – what happens when they all just chuck it in? Those with a closer understanding might say it’s not that simple, but the “debt” was basically voluntary anyway. All on paper. Why not cancel your own debt? It was guilt money, pulled out of thin air while the Chinese roar off into the sunset. So long suckers!!

    Mate, the Berlin wall fell down, so can the ECX

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    Tel

    Matty, thank you for your kind reassurance but it’s not much of a guarantee. Just one man’s opinion… and since you believe that the present is more important than the past, should your opinion even change you no doubt would just continue to claim the present is more important than the past, and happily discard earlier opinions.

    Sadly, the same “do gooder” mentality of charities that fix people’s lives for them is also the mentality that considers it entirely reasonable to burn someone’s physical body in order to save their immortal soul. You see, the worst abominations of churches in the past were committed on the basis that they were helping the victim.

    Hopefully someday I might hear churches saying, “It’s OK to be different. If you want to be gay / drunk / stoned / unbeliever / unmarried / condom-using / gambling / etc. that’s none of our business,” then I’ll feel some progress towards freedom has been made. The Catholic Church of the 21st century is structurally identical to the Catholic Church of 1000 years ago. The only difference being the measure of power available. The argument that human nature has changed and we are all just better people now is a bit of wishful thinking.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-11857143

    There they are again, telling me what to believe, telling me how to live my life, and using terms like “moral outrage” if people don’t give them what they want, and quick smart. Somehow I don’t find it difficult to expect that people with such a sense of self-importance and entitlement would be able to convince themselves that they needed to save a few immortal souls here and there.

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    matty

    RE: Tel #39

    Tel you sound rooted in the past. There are two types of atheists I know and I was one myself. There are the severed ones who live removed from the whole question of God without ever a thought, and there are the ones who have an issue with it and get in a bit of a twist even. When I was an atheist I paid no attention to what the church said. In fact I didn’t even know what they were saying.

    All I really now for sure is this – life is not a resort, it’s more like a school and your teacher is not your enemy, far from it. That’s the good news.

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    Nick

    Spain, Italy and Japan are going to pay $33bn for exceeding their Kyoto allowances:

    I doubt that very much. They may “Appear” to pay. But they wont.

    Spain has close to 20% unemlpoyment due to productivity sapping renewables.

    Itally’s not far behind Greece I beleive?

    Japan are struggling and, have done for the past 15 years, to climb out of the deflationary whirlpool. Just when the world may be onto a “BRIC” recovery your going to tell them they can’t part? Good onya, let me know when your gonna tell ‘em, I’m walkin’ the other way.

    I can imagine some in Japanese authority mortally affraid of Chinese economic dominance. There is no way there gonna give ‘em a competetive edge by tieing their economy to Co2 emmissions and in turn Electryfying everything and in turn rare Erth Minerals.

    By the way. The US Navy is looking at reopening a Rare earth minerals mine that has been dormant for years. They know how important it is to be independant in this stuff.

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    Nick

    Carbon markets are doomed to failure from their inception.

    They trade something that is naturaly free, Oderless, Colourless and you can’t repackage it and sell it on late night telly with a free set of steak knives. And no one wants a box of Co2. Or half a dozen bocxes at a discount. :-)

    In fact that would probably be the simplest way to sell carbon. Package it up with water or something else. Oh that’s been done, it’s called offsets. Well back to unsellable.

    Regulation doesn’t make a sustainable market. Demand, Innovation, Supply and then competition for the remaining demand create’s a market

    For instance… Gov’t regulation created the huge market for home insulation. Australias entire production of insultaion was thrown at the demand. Not enough. Import the insulation we did. If that demand was trully driven by the market, the price would have gone through the roof, restoring the supply demand equilibrium.

    Regulation disapears and Whoala, like the Gene going back into the bottle the market disappears.

    May ggaaawwdd, you can’t even regulate a market out of existence with threats of jail or execution. Bootlegging, Drugs etc. There was a market for religion in the USSR and it survived for years under threats. A market will always exist if someone wants something they can’t make, and somone else can make it and wants something different.

    The insulation scheme is the perfect example of a market regulated into existance. Then it killed people, set houses on fire, and destroyed family businesses due to supply problems with material and trained labour that cared about such things as being prosecuted for burning houses down.

    The Co2 market’s failure is not a matter of if, but when. Find me the demand for Co2, other than plants, for gawds sake, and we’ll talk about a viable market. Till then, sorry, your wistlein’ somethin’ that doesn’t even resemble dixie.

    If Jullya brings in a Carbon Tax, there will be “Top of the troposphere” (as opposed to bottom of the harbour) tax schemes running around everywhere, people will get burned & confused. This will divert resources into unproductive areas, agaaaiinnn. You’ll see jobs advertised for Carbon Accountants. I can’t wait, and accountant that believes in AGW. OMG Weather and accountant in one conversation. LMAO

    And it will all be false. Just waiting to fail.

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    Bulldust

    Nick:

    Sorry to get all economist on your arse, but I have been following the world economic events in a casual way for the last couple of years or so, and I think we are headed for another major dip. The last couple of years have been a “dead cat bounce” IMHO, with the worst yet to come. As you say, most economies spent their shells on the last downturn and there isn’t any reserve left for the next one. This is partly a problem of having politicians that focus on today’s headlines and worry more about re-election than the long-term health of the economy.

    If you want to see a good basic video on why we are headed for the tough times see John Mauldin here:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4mn4ujPLKvA

    I am not saying John is necessarily right on everything he says, but he makes a lot of sense IMO and cuts through the noise to find the underlying signals in the economy. He has a lot of free blogs up here:

    http://www.investorsinsight.com/search/SearchResults.aspx?u=2103&o=DateDescending

    Personally, being a tad more dramatically-minded than John, I wonder if the predicted de-leveraging recession to hit in Q1 next year will be precipitated by the leaking of the “major US bank” documents Mr Assange had forewarned us about. For now the powers that be have silenced the web site, but the nature of the Internet is such that the truth will out sooner or later.

    If the bank details get out next year, as Assange had promised, then that could well be the financial “black swan” that triggers the next downturn… but that might just be me being dramatic /shrug.

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    Bulldust

    PS> I don’t even worry about CO2 emissions schemes anymore. After the Copenhagen failure, the Rudd backflip, and the Japanese pullout… I think we are seeing the warmists in serious retreat now. Once the next recession hits no one will be talking or writing about global warming. As Mr Clinton famously stated: “It’s the economy, stupid.” Voters get cheesed off when the economy is flat… and the US economy has been so very flat since Obama got in (not that this was his fault… just unlucky timing more than anything). Expect a Republican president next time around, and pray it is Romney and not Palin :D

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    Bulldust

    I love how you can’t stifle voices on the internet: http://wikileaks.ch/

    I guess the Swiss are just giving the US the finger. Don’t get me wrong, I love the US and most of the people there, and as far as governments go they are better than most, but I love the truth better.

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    Nick

    Bulldust. I like your thinking, but, I don’t think your thinking big enough:-)

    In 1952 every $ borrowed by the USA produced 94c of GDP.

    By 2008 that had reduced to 12 cents. Another way of putting it… in 2008 the USA had to borrow 7.6 times the money to produce the value of wealth as 1952.

    By 2010 that has turned negative. Every $ borrowed contracts GDP. WOW, are they in trouble. Which is why China are reviewing their exposure to US Treasuries.

    In the context of all this, Wikileaks is a preschool fight over who said what to whom. :-) Yes it may cause a ripple or 2, but in the end it’s just a small cat fight, relegated to the rear of the school sheds :-)

    There’s a big stoush on the way. And all the football teams (Treasuries) from all the schools (Western and modern developing Country’s) are gonna be in on it. We just have to wait for the first domino, which I think will be the USA halting borrowing (they’ll realise they have to stop) and making arrangements for the calling in of debtors.

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    Bulldust

    Nick:

    Watch John Mauldin… he covers those stats somewhere in the cideo if memory serves :) I think you’ll enjoy his forthright style.

    There are no easy options left for any of the economies in trouble and John covers the basic options.

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    Joe Veragio

    on Tel @ 30:

    I think you are being a bit unfair on the Mayans there. It aint easy to find a religion that hasn’t done a bit of torture and murder here and there where necessary to keep up the shock and awe factor amongst the subjugated. Christianity certainly did it’s fair share, so did the pagan druidism that Christianity attempted to displace. They would all do it again in a blink if they got the opportunity

    .

    Such observation may be applied not just to religions ‘though, but to any mass movement or belief system (inherited or adopted) that can be hijacked, as it gains influence, its adherents gain confidence in the certitude of its doctrine (as it’s presented for them), depriving them of wider perspective.
    History is littered with them, while the 10:10 fiasco might be indicative of the early stages.

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    Joe Veragio

    Thanks Jo @ #32
    Re:-<blockquote>……Japan owing $13 billion…&

    Spain, Italy and Japan are going to pay $33bn for exceeding their Kyoto allowances:

    Bit of a Catch 22 eh ?

    Their ability to service the debt (economic growth) being stifled by the need to buy even more such credits, in order to do so.

    Now they get a sense of how a struggling farmer in the developing world feels, all the time.

    Won’t collapsing carbon markets, just reduce the ($33bn or so) debt ‘though ?

    Is that their game ?

    Indeed these $13bn. & $33 bn. respectively, are they realistic valuations, in this the post Chicago (climate exchange) world, of today ?

    Are the collapsing carbon markets being driven more by public awareness/indifference or by (‘selfish’)national interest , now they feel what it’s like to be a country struggling to develop while saddled by a stifling debt ?

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    Nick

    Bulldust,

    Your right, I did enjoy his style.

    All through his lecture I can’t help thinking the Kyoto protocol is dust. And any meaningful renewal is well to quote Kerigan “Tell ‘em they’re dreamin’”

    There is not a chance in hell that Japan is going to commit to “saving a tree” based on a theory while their swinging through economic hoola hoops.

    Same for the USA, after it’s realised renewables are productivity sapping.

    The west actually needs to get obsessed with productivity for about 10 years. And you can’t do that with rising Electricity and Fuel costs.

    The BRIC economies are coming, and they don’t give a toss about some mohair jumper wearing theory. :-)

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    Roy Hogue

    Bulldust @44

    Expect a Republican president next time around, and pray it is Romney and not Palin

    Bulldust,

    I can understand why not Palin. But why Romney? When governor he got Massachusetts into even more trouble than they already had. Knowing that, why would I vote for him?

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    Roy Hogue

    matty @38,

    Those with a closer understanding might say it’s not that simple…

    I got to thinking about that and I can’t imagine why it would not be that simple. What would happen? Is the UN going to invade Japan? Who would take punitive measures? Everyone is fragile these days. There are better things to think about and anyone who gets sidetracked is just going to hurt all the more. I think you and I are right.

    The free ride is over. It’s best for everyone if we all cut our losses sooner rather than later, admit the grand mistake and start down the road to recovery from this self-imposed disaster.

    Dream on, Roy! But at least Cancun has shown us how impotent the UN really is.

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    1DandyTroll

    @matty

    ‘and Kyoto was the only thing keeping the European one alive,’

    Here in Europe the madness will continue unabated for ever and ever what with all the green communists actually managed to get it written in the law before they managed to keep the Irish voting over and over again ’till they voted the “right” way. So the European fundamental law now dictates that it is against the law to get the global average temperature to rise more ‘an +2° C.

    Europe will save the world or bankrupt itself for trying, because to do otherwise, is not madness (right?), but against the law.

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    Roy Hogue

    1DandyTroll @53,

    Forgive my asking, but what might the penalty be if the global average temp ever does rise more than 2°C?

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    1DandyTroll

    @Roy Hogue

    ‘Forgive my asking, but what might the penalty be if the global average temp ever does rise more than 2°C?’

    I have never dared to ask such dangerous questions. :p

    Probably that the greenies want the rest of the eurocrats to pour even more cash at everything green tech and green research and point one percent production capacity windmills and add another zero or two to the free give away of billions of euro to the “third world” countries.

    Actually the 2° C target isn’t written into the treaty of lisbon but follows how the eurocrats decide what’s what based upon what IPCC set as target, and this is not a good thing since IPCC and the crazed hippies might decide on a 4°C target next time to “combat”, and what have you but fortress Europa running to the “rescue” shelling out trillions of euro as they go.

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    Richard S Courtney

    Roy Hogue:

    At #54 you ask:

    Forgive my asking, but what might the penalty be if the global average temp ever does rise more than 2°C?

    Clearly, there is none.

    Mean global temperature rises by 3.8°C from June to January each year and falls by 3.8°C from January to June each year.

    So, global average temp rises by nearly double 2°C during each year. Nobody notices and nobody suffers any penalty.

    Richard

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    Roy Hogue

    Richard @56,

    I think you weren’t supposed to notice that. :-)

    As I recall, Shakespeare wrote a play entitled, Much Ado About Nothing. That title would be very apt for the history of the great AGW scare.

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    Nick

    Bulldust,

    For anyone that has followed Climategate to think Wikileaks is surprising and revealing, I IMHO is naive.

    Wikileaks will release material that will have the ladies under the hair driers saying, “See, told ya the world was a crappy place”,”no one cares about us”.

    So far, all Wikileaks has revealed is…

    Your kidding, I can’t beleive you didn’t think this was all happening? ;-)

    I think the damage will be done by dragging the naive along with the rest of us, that were/are cynical to start with.

    I can live with my cynicism, been afflicted for a while :-) But newby’s to cynicism wont know what it is and will confuse themselves, which leads to bad beleive based decisions. A lot will claim a new found base of principals by which to live etc. Which is a crock of course.

    One thing I’ve learnt from my cyniicism… Remember, but don’t listen to, what people say, watch what they do.

    Wikileaks has revealed the reasoning behind the puzzling missmatch between what is said, and what is done. That’s all.

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    pattoh

    Nick @58

    Paranoid cynical pessimists only ever have pleasant surprises.

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    Nick

    LOL Pattoh, your right.

    Funnily enough though, I wouldn’t consider myself a pessimist. Keep smiling :-)

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    val majkus

    http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/TopStories/20101204/cancun-climate-talks-kyoto-101204/
    Canada has reportedly aligned itself with Russia and Japan to block the extension of the Kyoto Protocol beyond 2012.

    U.N. climate chief Christiana Figueres said Friday that Canada is one of three countries among the 36 signatories opposed to extending their emission targets under the pact.

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    Roy Hogue

    http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/TopStories/20101204/cancun-climate-talks-kyoto-101204/

    So now Canada is out as well. Has anyone noticed what a convenient excuse the U.S. provides for Canada — which wants nothing more to do with carbon reductions by the look of it — to bow out while still looking oh so green?

    Happy to do it for ya guys. Anytime! Glad you found some backbone! :-)

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    Not quite new but this parody on AGW is excellent, well worth a look.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tUZRjHK8rQs&feature=player_embedded#

    I’ll try the embed thingy

    nope didn’t work.

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    Bulldust

    Roy Hogue:

    I only mentioned Romney because I assumed he was the only (other) realistic candidate for the GOP. I haven’t followed the US politics too much lately to be honest, and his was the only name that sprung to mind… so beg my forgiveness if there are other sensible contenders. All politicians are bent… its whether they are competent or not that matters. Sounds like you guys are having as torrid a time as we are in terms of getting feeble political leaders.

    As for Wikileaks, the releases do not surprise me in the slightest… I think the funniest piece I read was one in which the papers were reporting that Clinton was ringing around the embassies etc trying to smooth things over and one of them said “don’t worry about it, you should see what we say about you!”

    Goldman Sachs has been mooted as the bank that might be in the damning leaks promised by Assange, which wouldn’t surprise me given how closely they are in bed with the political system.

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    Dave

    Your lead graph incorrectly shows France and Brazil at $1.2 and $1.1 Trillion, respectively. Those are each a trillion off as you can see by comparison to the bracketing countries.

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    Roy Hogue

    Bulldust,

    No need for any forgiveness. I was wondering if you saw anything specific in him. I always look for a candidate with a good clear vision for leadership and a fire in the gut for getting it done. Romney didn’t show it to me.

    To be honest with you I can’t see anyone I would vote for right now. I like Sarah Palin’s fire for conservatism but she isn’t at all ready for the job and may not ever be ready. Don’t underestimate her though. She has a lot of political clout and is learning how to use it. My contenders to watch are Marco Rubio, the new Senator from Florida and Governor Chris Christy of Virginia.

    If I were to confess my deepest desire it was to see Rudy Giuliani in the White House. I couldn’t see the fire in any of the others for the principles I think are required. McCain came out the GOP winner so I had no choice when it was McCain vs. Obama. But McCain was a wimp!

    I’ll give you a tip about understanding the Obama administration — he intends to drag the U.S. down to a third world existence and he is absolutely ruthless in pursuit of what he wants. You can take those two things to the bank. This has been noted on JN before. While it’s only one man’s opinion to be sure; it also is the only analysis of Obama’s behavior that makes sense out of both what he does and what he doesn’t do. You couple this with his narcissism and he becomes very dangerous. It’s no great stretch to extend his intent to the rest of the developed world if he can do it.

    Maybe I’ll be written off as a conspiracy theorist. But all I do is watch what people say, what they actually do instead, then observe the result of what they’ve done. Obama has told us all about himself in his own words in two different books. Why do we not believe the man’s own words when he starts out doing exactly what he told us he’d do?

    Please don’t get me started on Wikileaks. The only real surprise is that some think their own governments would not look out for their own interests just as ruthlessly. I think that is very naive. ;) And “own interests” doesn’t necessarily mean the country’s best interest. Having spent my Army years involved with intelligence I have some understanding of what goes on. I was at the bottom of the totem pole but the picture was obvious.

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    こんにちは、ノバさんやみなさん!! I’m JoNova blog reader in Japan.

    Since I wanted you and many readers to know the situation of Japan which is being trapped by the Kyoto Protocol and global warming fraud, I wrote this in my bad English. 

    Please excuse my bad English sentence…

    I think global warming by carbon dioxide and the Kyoto Protocol must be a magnificent trap for only Japan after all. Japan has been paying several billion dollars in our tax to China and some west European countries for emissions rights. But after all, Japanese tax and various energy-saving products were merely sent to those countries and Al Gore for FREE!! Originally the usage fee of air is free, isn’t it?

    Well, naturally, You will think why Japan did such a foolish thing.

    To tell the truth, Japan has been already ruled by Koreans and Chinese. Koreans are almost governing the industrial world, media, the entertainment world, the religious world, etc in Japan. However, China is wielding power recently in Korean Japan, and a lot of Chinese spy and lobbyist are slipping into the Japanese Democratic Party.

    The central person who is promoting the 25% carbon dioxide reduction bill in Japan is Tetsuro Fukushima (He is Chinese and his real name is Chin Tetsuro in Chinese). Here is a evidence.
    http://www.nikaidou.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/fukuyama.jpg

    He swears allegiance to China though he has the nationality of Japan. If the 25% CO2 reduction bill(Reduction rate more than Kyoto Protocol) is passed in Japan , it will give China and west Europe more profit.

    Present Japan was not original Japan any longer…

    Japan is completely taken over by the Mafia and spy of neighbor countries, Europe, and America.

    Why are such things allowed in Japan?

    It is because Japan has neither “Anti-Espionage Law” nor “a national treason Law”. So in the first place, there is no function to defend a nation in Japan. Japan is Heaven for spy and invaders.

    Can we call such the country independent “country”?

    Japan became such a country because Japan was defeated in war. I think all is caused by that defeat.

    It can’t be helped, but I wanna spend our important tax and effort so as to solve other serious problems(7 million worker are in on the edge of Karoushi (death from overwork, suicide from 30 thousand to 100 thousand a year, 1 million depressive patients and unfair wage differentials etc…The Japanese economic society almost collapses except the industry adhering to the government) in Japan rather than preventing global warming and promising the Kyoto protocol.

    By the way, present Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan is South Korean.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B9l3eSXgMtQ

    This is a site in Japanese. Sorry, but i think you can understand it with some pictures.
    http://ttensan.exblog.jp/11382076/

    How to drink by Koreans
    http://www.asahi.com/international/korea/images/TKY200707230469.jpg

    Korean drinking manner
    http://www.atesk.org/pages/culture.htm#status

    Thank you for reading.

    BTW How does South Koreans behave in Australia? I hear that they are quiet in Western countries…

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    gbrecke

    It’s worth your time revisiting the old classic ‘Animal Farm’ watch the movie for free, you’ll recognize the players.

    http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-9153412213802919416#

    Here in the USA, we call our PIGs ‘Czars’. The sad news is you have your own PIGs :-(

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    Roy Hogue

    Did anyone notice this statement on Prometeus‘ site?

    German Chancellor Angela Merkel admitted on Tuesday that the eurozone was “facing an exceptionally serious situation”. She brushed aside criticism that German insistence on bondholder “haircuts” from 2013 was fuelling the crisis. I will not let up on this because “the primacy of politics over markets must be enforced,” she said.[emphasis mine, RH]

    Is it any wonder they’re in such trouble? That gurgling sound you hear is the EU going down the drain.

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    Roy Hogue

    gbrecke @70,

    Now I understand why DC is so malodorous these days. It’s the PIGs.

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    gbrecke

    RE:Roy Hogue,

    We can smell the stench all the way out here in the barn.
    Some of the animals are wise, they recognize the promises the PIGs make for what they are.
    Still, … the PIGs are very persuasive; and many of the animals commit all their spare time to watching
    Jerry Springer and Dr. Phil, they are easy marks for the PIGs.
    We note:
    The children of Greece believed in magic, our leaders follow their every foot step and promise a different outcome.
    It seems we have learned very little in the last 80 years and we find ourselves back in the 1930s again?
    AGW… what will the PIGs dream up next?

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    Roy Hogue

    It seems we have learned very little in the last 80 years and we find ourselves back in the 1930s again?

    I’m tempted to ask: instead of a chicken in every pot a la FDR, can we put one of these pigs in every pot? A lot more meat’s on a pig.

    Roy

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    gbrecke

    RE: Roy Hogue:
    As mentioned, we all have PIGs to deal with, few have been (collectively) smart enough to keep them from living in the house, regardless of the country we live in.

    With that said, we can easily see what is happening and how it will likely play out starting with the PIG’s decision to lower interest rates. We need recognize what money is: It is simply life’s energy, and normally those who have been responsible and worked a life time for their meager savings could find some income in loaning out that money.
    After Alan Greenspan and others moved prime interest near zero, individuals who had invested responsibly noted their bonds were being called. But worse yet, managers of pension funds saw their bonds called too! Who will pay 6 percent on a bond when the PIGs are loaning your money out for 2 percent? What to do, and how long can you burn capital before you become dependent on others? Yes, if you look at this for what it is, the PIGs effectively took our money and placed it in the hands of others, (fellow pigs and those who promised to support them).
    The same PIGs saw another opportunity to wrap a pretty red bow around junk, and sell it to Pension Fund Managers and Retirees as they no longer had access to traditional and more Prudent investments and grew more desperate by the day.

    Other PIGs stayed up late at night to scheme. Some noted that many animals (especially sheep) see anything green as having value, and the PIGs started wrapping green paper around every kind of Junk. The farm animals in Germany started buying solar panels with beautiful green wrappers at a pace so grand that the demand drove the price to a record high.

    Next house to fall is all sorts of pension funds, but they’ll not hit the floor! They’ll land on the backs of all animals as the PIGs have convinced us all that every kind of warrantee can easily be carried on the backs of hard working animals across our great field of farms.
    The day is young here, and I know before it passes, I’ll be called a pessimist as if that’s a bad thing? I’m a skeptical too, I wear both badges with pride. But at the end of the day I am not sure what to do. It seems the fools have all the ideas, and as always they’ll likely suggest we travel the easiest road…. Straight to hell, hasn’t that been the plan thus far?

    In the USA, we have Grand PIG Pelosi, Her State is bankrupt on a grand scale, and somehow she maintains a bed with sheets in the farm house!

    Roy… there are few things tastier than a pig.

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    Roy Hogue

    gbrecke @75

    I would say that your pessimism is reasonably justified. I’m sure you saw the quote attributed to Angela Merkel that I posted at 71. They really believe this stuff. I guess they’ll stick to it even as their boat goes under.

    That so many can still find a reason to admire our head PIG is amazing.

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    Roy Hogue

    PS:

    I live in Taxifornia. So I know exactly the situation. Here they made it a double whammy on November 2nd — Jerry Brown for governor and repeal the 2/3 majority requirement to pass a budget. This is only good for the blood-suckers.

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    chaamjamal

    on the issue of methane hydrates – quite possibly the next big energy bonanza – the big winners in asia will be japan and india.

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    Our friends in Russia are not too optimistic about a solid result from Cancun.

    In an interview with the Voice of Russia, Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Yakovenko said “Working groups have been preparing for the top-level meeting for a week; however, even the experts admit that they couldn’t so much as get a draft agreement organized.”

    hehe he, no less than a DEPUTY was sent to Cancun. Such a stark contrast to the hype of Copenhagen just 12mnths ago.

    Yakevenko also said that Russia, being a signatory to the Kyoto Protocol, had commited to cut emissions by 15-25% of the 1990 levels by 2020.
    “Russia is doing more than it has pledged under the Kyoto Protocol and is the world leader in reducing greenhouse gas discharges.”

    I’m guessing the forced closure of the old Soviet rusty tin shed industries had something to do with that.

    Links HERE and HERE

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    Robinson

    That’s all good, but the National Post’s chart is wrong. France has a GDP of around $2 trillion, not $1.2 trillion!

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    Jack Savage

    The chart is also ridiculously wrong. Italy at 1.9 trillion is listed below Brazil and France at 1.1 and 1.2 trillion.

    Does not change the thrust of the argument, but is not very impressive and a classic example of “cutandpaste-itis”.

    As I am very guilty of it myself, I cannot be too harsh…..

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    Jack, well spotted. I think the 1.9 trillion for italy, must be a typo and be 0.9 t instead. Jo

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    How come Piers has this great track record of weather forecasting using only his degree in Astrophysics, a laptop computer and reams of public data available on the Internet, while the Met Office and other overly priced government agencies, the IPCC, etc., with their huge budgets can’t forecast their way out of a papar bag?

    Let’s see. Which is more efficient: Private enterprise or government bloat? Who has more to gain perpetrating the global warming myth? Do the math. Follow the money.

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    Roko

    Here are some truths for you all…….
    If we cannot leave this planet, it is logical to assume that all the resouces available to us are limited.
    To control the exploitation of these limited resouces we attach an economic value.
    To achieve an percieved as better quality of life, every enterprise we persue is to achieve growth.
    Greater demand always drives up prices as does restictions in availability.
    All we have to do to manage the long term viablity of our society and maintain the enviroment is to make bad things too expensive. ie 5000% tax on bullets, 2000% tax on fuel. accept the fact that travel is becomming an unnessesary luxury.
    Live in fewer but larger cities.
    Most importantly, change the social measure of success as an individual.
    We do not need more people who want to be rich.
    We want to be safe and happy and feel needed just as we are.
    We should learn to reward leaders for bettering our lives and not serving minority interest groups like the banking community.
    The first step is to spend less and only get what you have to, if we all did that the entire world econemy would go into free fall, but in the long term we would be better off.

    RoKo

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    Roko

    Why is it so may intelligent people are confusing subjective material, for facts?

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