JoNova

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2000 Forecast: Snowfall to disappear from the UK

Photo: London Evening Standard 24 Nov 2010

Monday, 20 March 2000.  Look out! Back when every witchdoctor had a PR agent and newspapers dutifully repeated their latest crystal ball incantation, it was reported (without so much as a caveat) that there would soon be no more white Christmases in London, and worse, soon  “kids will not know snow”. Gone too would be the scenes that inspired glorious impressionist images, and lyrical poetry. Are you in tears yet? The travesty!

Pity the poor shop owners who were trying to order stock based on met office “forecasts”. Back in 2000, shop owners were not bothering to stock sledges.

No more snowmen in England!

h/t to Bernadette and Trevor who spotted this gem.


Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past

By Charles Onians, 20th March 2000

Britain’s winter ends tomorrow with further indications of a striking environmental change: snow is starting to disappear from our lives.

Sledges, snowmen, snowballs and the excitement of waking to find that the stuff has settled outside are all a rapidly diminishing part of Britain’s culture, as warmer winters – which scientists are attributing to global climate change – produce not only fewer white Christmases, but fewer white Januaries and Februaries.

However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.

“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said.

The effects of snow-free winter in Britain are already becoming apparent. This year, for the first time ever, Hamleys, Britain’s biggest toyshop, had no sledges on display in its Regent Street store. “It was a bit of a first,” a spokesperson said.

The chances are certainly now stacked against the sort of heavy snowfall in cities that inspired Impressionist painters, such as Sisley, and the 19th century poet laureate Robert Bridges, who wrote in “London Snow” of it, “stealthily and perpetually settling and loosely lying”.

From The Independent March 2000

So how did those brave predictions pan out?

From The Independent this week: ten years later, Britain is trapped in a savage deep freeze. Records are being smashed (on the downside). In Wales the coolest day ever recorded in Llysdinam, Powys, was -11.2 recorded in 1921. This week minus 18!

And the cool arctic breeze is flowing, keeping those industrial freezer temperatures going for a bit longer. Those babies born in the year 2000, who would “not know snow”, are now ten years old and struggling with blizzards. In London it’s the earliest November snowfall for 17 years.

The witchdoctor predictions worked so much better when no one could record exactly what they said.

Cold comfort for a Britain stuck in the deep freeze

Temperatures plunge as low as -18C in Wales

Snow and ice combined to make the roads treacherous across swathes of the country and several airports, including Glasgow and Aberdeen, had to be closed yesterday. More than 40cm (16in) of snow fell in some parts of Scotland and up to 40cm blanketed parts of North-east England, but the coldest of the weather so far was felt in Wales. In Llysdinam, Powys, the temperature sank to -18C, the coldest on record for Wales in November and far below the previous low of -11.2 recorded in 1921. Northern Ireland also suffered its coldest November night ever, with -9.5 at Lough Fea. The previous record was -9C in 1978, the Met Office in London said.

In England, temperatures fell as low as -13.5C – at Topcliffe in North Yorkshire, while in the Scottish Highlands -15.3C was recorded, extremely cold but far short of the -23.3C reported at in Braemar in November 1919. The English record of -15.5C was set at Wycliffe in 1993.

Read more in The Independent

Meanwhile Anthony Watts points out that only a month ago the UK met office was predicting a mild winter. And Now the Met Office denies that it issues long range forecasts. It only does monthly outlooks (though they don’t seem to provide a link to that) and 100 year ultra long range reports of guaranteed catastrophes.

But wait, wait — there’s more!

Could it all be due to Global Warming? (Could anyone seriously suggest that?)

Of course they can, they did, and what’s the evidence? The “evidence” that extreme cold in Europe confirms the AGW theory, comes from the same (slightly improved) climate simulations which were outrageously wrong only ten years ago. Climate models have again, post hoc, demonstrated that they are flexible enough to hindcast nearly any small subset of the real world:

Strong disturbances in air stream flows would be the main reason behind frosty weather, said Vladimir Petoukhov of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).

Ice melting in the eastern Arctic Ocean could create warmer layers of air that would in turn change air flows, he said.

“Should it occur these disturbances would triple the possibility of an extremely cold winter in Europe and northern Asia,” he said.

“Hard winters like last year’s or in 2005-2006 do not defy the premise of global warming, but rather confirm it.”

Petoukhov and his colleagues at the institute supported their theory with simulations by supercomputers.

From The Local

Thanks to Baa Humbug for reminding me.

——

PS: James Delingpole is on fire today, and it seems has been dropping by here,  (possibly reading the corruption series…). Thanks  James.

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116 comments to 2000 Forecast: Snowfall to disappear from the UK

  • #
    Dave N

    ..and yet the heavy snowfalls last winter were blamed on.. you guessed it: AGW. I guess alarmists are banking on the average Joe having short memories, being extremely gullible, or both.


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  • #
    Jaymez

    I’m surprised this latest cold spell hasn’t been pinned on global warming too. Perhaps Stephan Lewandowsky is writing another of his logic deprived pieces for The ABC Drum Unleashed at this very moment.

    “How can the deniers keep ignoring the falling temperatures and raging blizzards? Surely no more evidence of CO2 climate disruption is needed?”

    Good to see you included by Delingpole in the climate sceptic list of Royalty, Jo. Well done!


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  • #
    Roy Hogue

    And still they do not learn!


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  • #
    Brian G Valentine

    I wish people like Phil Jones were a thing of the past.

    I mean, their views, of course – I don’t wish any ill to befall anyone.


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  • #
    Phillip Bratby

    I live in the mild south-west part of England and can confirm beyond a shadow of a doubt that snow is not a thing of the past. I was cut off for a week both last winter and the previous winter and I am looking at snow today with -9 and -7 deg C being the last two night-time minimum temperatures. It’s no fun when our electricity bills keep going up to subsidise wind turbines, which sit idly towering over the snow.


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  • #

    You know when they continue to blame both cold and snow or warm and rain weather events for the same regions in winter,on AGW.You know they are running on empty.

    The problem is in the language.Anthropogenic Global WARMING (AGW) clearly posits a WARMING trend.Meaning less possibility of snowfall in winter in the UK.

    Since we see the very opposite the last three years.It is slowly becoming a climatic trend in the opposite direction,from what the AGW hypothesis would suggest.

    It is hard not to notice when you are shoveling snow in… NOVEMBER,in the UK!

    Physical Reality beats Virtual reality every time.


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  • #
    Henry chance

    I have posted this comment several times last winter on Joe Romm’s Climate Progress. It seems to get deleted.

    The actual false forecasts are a shame for the AGW crowd.


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  • #

    Jaymez #2 In fact it has been blamed on AGW. The lie theory goes something like…” AGW has pushed the jet streams south/north causing cold air to descend on Britain and northern Europe whilst creating warming in the Arctic”….or some such bullchit.


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  • #
    DougS

    Dr Viner has been described by one of his AGW alarmist buddies as ‘one of the giants of climate science’??

    Makes you wonder what the climate science pygmies are up to!


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  • #

    I think Mr Vine may have had too much Wine when he made those statements :)

    Actually, we may laugh at the incompetence of the Met Office, but on a serious note, I hope Piers Corbyn (he who has an excellent strike rate in long range weather forecasting)doesn’t read this post because it hits a nerve with him, and rightly so.

    You see, last winter (and I think the winter before)the local authorities, who are responsible for clearing roads of snow, didn’t stock up on sea salt and quickly found themselves running out of the stuff. The result being uncleared dangerous roads which not only cost millions in lost productivity, (people couldn’t get to work, goods unable to be transported etc) but many accidents happened.

    This despite fore-warnings by Mr Corbyn. But ofcourse, the authorities took the word of the Met Office, (they with the multi-million pound computer models and the now infamous “Barbeque Winters” forecast)

    The long range forecasting by the Met Office was abondoned after many years of utter embarrassment.

    By the way, wasn’t theMet Office boss given multi million pound BONUSES for a JOB WELL DONE earlier this year? Beggars belief.


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  • #

    There we go, “MET OFFICE DUFFERS GET 1.4MILL BONUS” Article here

    And Piers Corbyn is from weatheraction.com


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  • #

    But wait, wait — there’s more!

    Could it all be due to Global Warming? (Could anyone seriously suggest that?)

    Of course they can, they did, and what’s the evidence? The “evidence” that extreme cold in Europe confirms the AGW theory, comes from the same (slightly improved) climate simulations which were outrageously wrong only ten years ago. Climate models have again, post hoc, demonstrated that they are flexible enough to hindcast nearly any small subset of the real world:

    Strong disturbances in air stream flows would be the main reason behind frosty weather, said Vladimir Petoukhov of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).

    Ice melting in the eastern Arctic Ocean could create warmer layers of air that would in turn change air flows, he said.

    “Should it occur these disturbances would triple the possibility of an extremely cold winter in Europe and northern Asia,” he said.

    “Hard winters like last year’s or in 2005-2006 do not defy the premise of global warming, but rather confirm it.”

    Petoukhov and his colleagues at the institute supported their theory with simulations by supercomputers.

    Thanks to Baa Humbug for reminding me.
    I’ve added it to the main post.


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  • #

    Dellingpoles on fire allright, OVER 2000 comments and still coming.
    Needless to say I ain’t gunna read ‘em all lol

    Maybe a few warmists (decepticons) might wander over here. We’re short of alarmists lately.

    Please come back MattB, all is forgiven :)


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  • #
    andyS

    DougS said
    “Dr Viner has been described by one of his AGW alarmist buddies as ‘one of the giants of climate science’??

    Makes you wonder what the climate science pygmies are up to!”

    Quite so. In the case of the scientists of CRU at UEA it is more a case of pygmies standing in the shoulders of Lamb(s), Hubert Lamb, that is.


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  • #
    Joe Veragio

    NEWS:-
    Article in the FT today
    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/43d235dc-fb23-11df-b576-00144feab49a.html#axzz16hRiEkMa

    begins enticingly ehough :-

    Expectations for the international climate change talks in Cancún are low, but not low enough,

    but then goes onto cite the impossibility of reaching international agreement as reason enough to Stop talking and go ahead start taxing carbon anyway.

    Sounds not unlike the US stance on Iraq a few years ago.
    ‘ international agreement’s nice if you can get it, but don’t let it stop you doing what you’re hell bent on anyway.


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  • #
    Ken Bevakasha

    Well done, Jo. You certainly know your Onians!


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  • #
    Adolf Balik

    A contribution to one of the Czech discussions on AGW:

    „I have been shoveling snow up till now. Who bubbles anything on global warming will be stricken with my shovel.”


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  • #
    Amr

    Not only has the Emperor got no cloths, he has no dick.
    Amr


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  • #
    MadJak

    Great post Jo,

    We should be digging out all of those predictions and make the comparisons.

    Wasn’t perth and Brisbane meant to have run out of water by now? Who said that? Did it happen? Why are we not holding people to account for their predictions which were written with such grave and serious certainty?

    Why is this important? Well lets just say that I have a young relative who has been absolutely convinced that the Earthquakes around the world are because of the evil C02 emissions – and yes, apparently it’s all of us evil humans fault…


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  • #

    Errr, Yup, it’s a bit snowy in dear old blighty today, but, isn’t the real news today the amazon best seller.

    http://www.amazon.com/Slaying-Sky-Dragon-Greenhouse-ebook/dp/B004DNWJN6/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&m=A7B2F8DUJ88VZ&s=books&qid=1290761070&sr=8-1

    13
    Baa Humbug:
    November 30th, 2010 at 3:09 am

    Please come back MattB, all is forgiven

    We had better get used to them running away, but
    you will be surprised by who some of the “them” that are running away are….


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  • #
    Joe Veragio

    An atypical placement of high pressure zone’s, one west of Iceland and another over central Norway are causing a wind direction that’s bringing UK weather from the core of continental Europe.

    However the last 24 hours hasn’t been as severe as predicted, due to a strengthening Low, south west of Ireland.

    While anything out of the ordinary can be blamed on the old bogey AGW, it’s a similar combination that brought the continental cold & snow early in the year.


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  • #
    wes george

    We’ve been through this debate many times before with Warmists since the Orwellian term “climate change” replaced Anthropogenic Global Warming.

    Language is the basic tool the human mind uses to reason with. If one is immersed fully in the new language of the debate, ie “Carbon pollution causes climate change,” then one becomes quite capable of believing that decreasing AND increasing snow fall are both evidence in support of the CAGW hypothesis…Of course, we probably shouldn’t call AGW a hypothesis anymore, since by definition a hypothesis must present implications that can be tested.

    http://shewonk.wordpress.com/2010/02/17/more-lies-damned-lies-and-statistics/#comments

    Dunning-Kruger Effect, anyone?

    “The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which “people reach erroneous conclusions and make unfortunate choices but their incompetence robs them of the metacognitive ability to realize it”.”

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning–Kruger_effect#cite_note-Kruger-0


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  • #
    Ross

    I see Julia Gillard is promising a carbon price for Australia next year ( part of the blurb around the start of Cuncan). Can I suggest that one of the things you could start doing is asking how the figures for 1990 were derived for Australia , as this is what they all measure against.
    In NZ we have more than half of our so called emmissions related to various forms of land use. When the Govt. started reporting to the UN the data required under Kyoto about 6-7 years ago they found they had very little of the appropriate data so they set a system called LUCAS ( Land Use & Carbon Analysis System) to improve their data collection. So I have asked ( and not got an answer !!) — where did the figures for 1990 come from if we did not have an adequate data system in place ??
    Does the same apply in Australia , concerning where the data came ? (ie. were there any systems in place in 1990 ?) To me this fundamental to any targets and related carbon price system.


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    Adolf Balik

    To Joe 20:

    Look at articles on NAO here:
    http://notrickszone.com/


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  • #

    Bishop Hill Blog targeted by ‘alarmists’ – ?Skeptic Alerts
    (Campaign Against Climate Change’ – CaCC))

    http://www.realclimategate.org/2010/11/bishop-hill-targeted-sceptic-alerts/

    http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2010/11/29/cacc-notices-bishop.html

    Shameless plug alert!
    Hope you like the name of my new blog…… http://www.RealClimategate.org – I could not resist ;)

    The links above are a follow up to this Jo Nova article:
    http://joannenova.com.au/2010/04/newsflash-the-fightback-campaign-against-sceptics/


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    Joe Veragio

    If ex Vice President Gore had rather been deputy to a UK Prime Minister he too would now be a Lord, rather than just plain old Al., in which case he could have accepted accepted Lord Monckton’s standing invite to a debate on more equal terms :-)


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    [...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by johnnyA99, Martin Thomas. Martin Thomas said: 2000 weather forecast – snowfall to disappear from the UK – from JoNova http://bit.ly/gxd2rz [...]


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    Joe Veragio

    Djekuje Adolf, @23: For putting my simplistic observation @20 in context.

    So this UK cold spell is not so atypical after all then , thanks to this North Atlantic Oscillation thingy.

    Thankyou too for this touch of your continental weather, a bracing reminder of Prague winters. :-)


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    crakar24

    Post 8

    BH,

    I am confused by the AGW Bullchit you mention. Using logic (because thats the only climate skill i have) it does not make sense.

    Bear with me for a moment.

    Firstly, lets assume they are right and the ice loss and warming for the past 30 odd years in the Arctic are “signs” of AGW then how could a change in wind direction (also a “sign” of AGW) bring all that cold Arctic air that does not exist down south?

    Does this new revised theory then suggest that the Arctic was indeed cold for all these years?

    Secondly, assuming the Arctic was in fact cold for the past 30 years the change in wind direction which cant be a sign of AGW (see first point) has merely moved the cold air to somewhere else.

    For the theory to withstand the cold hard light of day the Arctic needs to warm along with the Nth Hemisphere or is my logic flawed. Can anyone please advise if i am wrong.


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  • #
    Richard S Courtney

    Friends:

    I live in Cornwall, a peninsula at the extreme SW of the UK.

    The climate in Cornwall is warm and wet. Wild plam trees grow here (one has sprung up in my back yard). And snow is rare: it occurs on average about once in four years and rarely stays on the ground for an entire day.

    But now we are having the second severe fall of ‘global warming white stuff’ this year. It settled on the ground in February and lasted two days (so I built a snow man). It fell again on Saturday, has fallen intermittently since and has stayed on the ground.

    My problem is that I have to drive up country tomorrow and I fear I may not be able to get my car out of the cul-de-sac safely because of all the ‘global warming white stuff’ on the road.

    But the UK Met. Office says such ‘global warming white stuff’ is to be a thing of the past. So, the Met. Office tells me that my car being stuck is soon to never be a problem again. My question is When?

    Richard


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  • #
    bunny

    Baa Humbug @ 13

    If you’re missing MattB, perhaps you would like to drop into Andrew Bolt’s blog and have a chat to one of the resident warmists there. I’m sure AS would give you plenty of rubbish to refute. You could even exercise your skills against Big Ted, although he is becoming increasingly irrational of late as his pet project crumbles daily.


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  • #
    Bulldust

    Brian G Valentine @ 4:

    Oh I don’t know Brian… I think it would be delicious irony if he slipped on some ice after predicting a mild winter. But yes, like you I don’t wish the poor schmuck any harm.


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    val majkus

    Richard at 28; I love your image, it seems to always suit your posts! and no that’s not an insult


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    Richard

    Richard S Courtney:

    I think you will find that the “palm” trees growing in Cornwall are in fact New Zealand cabbage trees, which grow in a wide variety of habitats throughout the U.K., even as far north as Scotland. They cannot be taken as an indicator of warm, or even mild, climates.

    Richard (ex Yorkshire now New Zealand)


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  • #
    John Brookes

    Its just weather. Just like the way Perth Western Australia is about to have its warmest November since records began. Its just weather.


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    Mark D.

    But John, when exactly, does weather change to climate?


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    MadJak

    John @ 34

    Is it the weather today and climate change in Perth? Ok, got it.

    So does the climate affect the weather or does the weather affect the climate?

    Sorry, I’ve been finding that line of argument as being predictable and puerile


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    Speedy

    Morning All

    David Archibald has been predicting the cooling for a while now.

    http://www.davidarchibald.info/papers/Archibald2009E&E.pdf

    Solar Cycle 24 is starting to wake up but it’s taking its time!

    Cheers,

    Speedy


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  • #
    John Brookes

    Mark D@35. Good point – when does weather change to climate?

    If I were making the call, it would be 30 years.

    However you don’t need to wait that long. A quite simple way of looking at it is to simply count the number of hot records and the number of cold records. So that place in Wales counts as a cold record, and Perth’s hot November counts as a hot record. Apparently, when you add them up like this, the hot records outnumber the cold records considerably.

    But you guys would hardly be surprised by that, because it is getting warmer, because we are coming out of the little ice age. But its not CO2. We can be quite sure of that ;-)


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  • #
    wendy

    It has a gigantic supercomputer, 1,500 staff and a £170m-a-year budget. So why does the Met Office get it so wrong?

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1240082/It-gigantic-supercomputer-1-500-staff-170m-year-budget-So-does-Met-Office-wrong.html


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  • #
    Mark D.

    I followed Joe Veragio @27 link and end up with this cool graphic:
    http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/20vs00warming.gif

    Showing an uncanny….absolutely uncanny correlation between the warming trend starting 1880 and the one starting 1970.

    I know no one else here believes in conspiracies so I’ll just remind you that every “expert” in climate should have known about this.

    GET IT? They knew about this!

    {off soap box}

    article at: http://notrickszone.com/2010/11/28/lesson-learned-predicting-the-european-climate-from-the-cet-record/

    (thanks Joe. V.)


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  • #
    John Brookes

    Morning Speedy@39. About David Archibald’s predictions. To quote from his paper:

    On this basis, and according to Svensmark and Friis-Christensen’s hypothesis, peak cloudiness, and therefore peak rate of cooling, will be reached in mid-2010.

    I suppose it would be too mean of me to point out that the UAH satellite data (AQUA ch05) had mid-2010 as being the hottest year since 2002 when it started collecting data?

    Mind you, temperatures have dropped back since then, so maybe the prediction was good, but the timing was out….


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  • #
    pattoh

    As a long term fan of the humour of Tom Sharpe, it is very hard to view the whole CRU/UEA saga without conjuring images complete with Wilt & Professor Yapp type charachters.


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  • #
    John Brookes

    Mark D@42 – nice graph. It shows that European temperatures for 1970 – 2005 is almost a carbon copy of 1880 – 1915. The same pattern that is, but warmer by just under one degree. The pattern is definitely a cool thing to investigate, but the warming is what matters.


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  • #
    J.Hansford

    Yes, well… Now that they have rebadged AGW(Anthropogenic Global Warming to CC(Climate Change)and then finally settled on calling it GCD(Global Climate Disruption)… They now have the Ultimate word game theory in climate pseudoscience… The Hotter, Colder, Wetter, Drier, Winder, Calmer theory of everything.

    You have to give it to them. They are Gods amoung mere mortals.


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    crakar24

    John,

    Perth hot, Wales cold but the number of hot records out number the cold ones. It is a sad when the believers of AGW resort to local weaher conditions as “signs” of global warming.

    Let me ask you which of the two completely contradictory theories about what should happen in the NTH Hemisphere do you agree with and why.

    I ask this question because a while ago i was told that the NTH hemisphere winters will get milder and milder for year upon year and AGW will rob the poor (pronounced pooohwer in Wales) little kiddies of the experience with playing in snow. I was also told the only way to fix this problem would be for me to shell out more cash on a carbon tax of sorts.

    Now i am being told AGW is the cause of recent bone chilling winters and these bone chilling winters will continue for the foreseeable future and once again the only way to fix this problem is for me to shell out more cash on a carbon tax of sorts.

    So i think i have a right to ask (what theory do you accept colder or hotter NTH Hemisphere due to AGW)why should i pay more cash when it is obvious the so called experts on this HAVE NO IDEA WHAT THEY ARE TALKING ABOUT. If i dont ask these questions then who will? Most people are mindless lemmings and simply nod there head in approval when told, are you one of these people John?


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    Speedy

    John Brookes

    You’re right, it would be mean of you :) And, as you say, it could have been a case of right prediction, timing out by a year.

    Cheers,

    Speedy


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    John Brookes

    crakar24@47: to quote you:

    It is a sad when the believers of AGW resort to local weaher conditions as “signs” of global warming.

    Its a global phenomena, but ultimately there is nothing but local temperature measurements to quantify it. While I think global climate models are reasonable, I have less faith in local climate models. The weather system is too chaotic to expect successful predictions of local climate over the short term.

    Mind you, I did see “The Day After Tomorrow”, and they were definitely of the opinion that global warming would mean European freezing! ;-)


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  • #
    Roy Hogue

    John Brookes @34,

    November 30th, 2010 at 11:44 am

    Its just weather. Just like the way Perth Western Australia is about to have its warmest November since records began. Its just weather.

    Now you’re getting it John. The warmest November on record means that it’s the warmest November on record. And that is exactly just weather.

    Congratulations!


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    bunny:
    November 30th, 2010 at 10:01 am

    Been there done that bunny. Big Ted, Dark Night Silly Filly et al.

    John Brookes:
    November 30th, 2010 at 12:25 pm says

    Mark D@35. Good point – when does weather change to climate?

    If I were making the call, it would be 30 years.

    Hi John. So can I assume then that you discount the 60yr cycle?


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    John Brookes

    Yes Baa Humbug@51, I’m going to ignore the 60 year cycle, and the easter bunny, and the tooth fairy. If you consider the globe as a whole, I don’t think these cycles will matter much. In any one location, cycles could be of much greater importance.


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    MadJak

    John @ 49

    Mind you, I did see “The Day After Tomorrow”, and they were definitely of the opinion that global warming would mean European freezing

    So, that’s where you’re getting this stuff from, well here’s a tip john, It’s not real, it’s just a movie…


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    crakar24

    John,

    So let me get this straight, you believe regional modelling aint worth the paper the code is printed on and yet you point to a local event to strengthen the global modelling you believe is reasonable.

    Just to put this into perspective Adelaide which is about 2000 K’s east from perth has had a very mild year, in fact July, August, September, October and i suspect November have all been well below average therefore the evidence is unequivocal that AGW is a myth from an Adelaide perspective.

    The next question that needs to be asked is if AGW was the cause of the Perth heat then why did this AGW heat not effect Adelaide? I know, i know the weather when affected by AGW works in mysterious ways. Seriously its important that you understand my point here most people that believe in AGW talk in intangible ways, you point to local events such like heat in Perth and cold in europe and assign blame to AGW but the past 6 months of cool weather in Adelaide is simply weather.

    The loss of ice in Arctic is caused by AGW and the increase in Antarctic ice is caused by AGW the reasons to support their belief is constantly changing, they make one statement and before anyone can pin them down on it the story is changed so we have to start all over again.

    So please for the sake of my sanity tell me will the NTH H get ever increasing milder and milder winters due to AGW as Viner says or will the NTH H continue to experience bone chilling winters as the other IPCC employed scientist claim.

    Which one is it?


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    Mark D.

    John Brookes Re. 40,

    30 years not 10, 20, 40, 50, 80, not 32.2834, not 27.14159?

    Could it be that with a 30 year slice, you can really do nice hockey graphs out of an 80 year normal cycle?

    Another thing, how do you take the temperature of the earth? Do you use morning lows? daytime highs? average daily? When the sampling is done all at the same time of day, how do you correct for daylight savings time? Isn’t the most “heat” at a certain sun height? How do you do it John?

    How do you calculate the global temperatures when you only have 5 thermometers? Or 50? Or 500? Or 5000? How many weather recorders didn’t bother to actually read the thermometer because it was a cold pouring rain? Or a freezing, blinding blizzard? How many of those records are just a lazy mans guess John? How many records were .5 degree off just because the person reading them needed better glasses.

    Regardless, you still need a theory in order to move from “one degree” to “Man Caused one degree”. It is that theory that lacks.

    You also might explain why it is only ONE DEGREE?


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    John Brookes:
    November 30th, 2010 at 1:38 pm

    Yes Baa Humbug@51, I’m going to ignore the 60 year cycle, and the easter bunny, and the tooth fairy. If you consider the globe as a whole, I don’t think these cycles will matter much. In any one location, cycles could be of much greater importance.

    OK fair nuff. So can I then assume that you also don’t accept the notion of say….a mediterranean climate, or an alpine climate or even a desert climate.
    To extrapolate further, you must then believe the area called the mediterranean region can have it’s climate changed within around 30yrs by some strong forcing..say…the PDO or AMO etc Seen as all sides agree that these oscillations have gone through warm and cool cycles over the instrumental period, the mediterranean region must have exhibited some changes in say…plant life, or animals and critters that live in and make up that CLIMATE as we know it.
    Can you point me to some evidence that this area (or pick your own climate region if that makes it easier John) has demonstrated changes in flora and fauna which would constitute a “changed climate”?

    thnx


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    JPA Knowles

    Between the wars a George Simpson was head of the UK Met Office. Later he went on to suggest that warming was a precursor to an ice age. Increased solar irradience would cause more tropical evapouration and provide the necessary extra snow at the poles, => increased albedo => glaciation. Ice cores suggests a few periods of rapidly oscillating warm and cool climate prior to full ice ages so what we’ve got is probably close to normal.
    It does surprize me tho’, that more catastrophists have not pointed out that the extra snowfall in Europe and Nth America is “proof” of global warming, citing Sir George Simpson’s theory.


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    crakar24: #28
    November 30th, 2010 at 9:40 am

    Sorry Crakar, I hadn’t realised you addressed your post to me.

    I can’t help you I’m afraid, for I too can’t follow the logic.

    Maybe someone like John Brookes can enlighten us? Or we could just accept the alarmist line that warmer is AGW, colder is AGW, wetter is….drier is…etc


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    John Brookes

    crakar24@54 – give me a break! I never said that Perth’s hot November was caused by, or on its own, evidence of, AGW. I said it was just weather. I also said that when it came to weather, there were more hot records being set than cold records, which is hardly surprising because the world is warming, or certainly has been since we started keeping weather records in most places on earth. If you want to join the lunatic fringe and sit in the corner with your hands over your ears chanting “Its not warming”, be my guest. Most of your fellow skeptics accept warming, but argue over the cause…..

    The point of AGW is that the total energy in the earth’s atmosphere and oceans increases. Just how that energy is distributed is, in my opinion, very hard to predict. If you just take a very broad brush approach, the poles will warm the most. But exactly what will happen in some little island 50 degrees north of the equator – well who knows?

    However one thing we should expect is more water in the atmosphere. And that water comes back down as snow or rain. So maybe we shouldn’t be too surprised at the recent floods and heavy snowfall.

    Oh, and as for Adelaide (you aren’t from there, are you?), they had a blisteringly hot November last year – record hottest, if my memory serves me correctly. But its just weather, just like Perth’s record cold June this year.


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    I see Ove is at it again with his alarmism!

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/11/30/3080628.htm

    I have a meeting (doing lunch) next week with the senior partner of a global law firm. We will be discussing legal action against Ove and others as I believe it’s time to put them and their wacky science in the box under oath.

    I see sleepless nights ahead for this bunch, a small price to pay for traumatising my daughter!


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    crakar24

    Hey John,

    Your gunna love this,

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1333225/Global-warming-slowing-say-scientists.html

    Try and look beyond the contradictions which state the arctic is warming but we dont know how much due to a lack of data.

    We have a new theory as to why the Earths energy balance is reducing whilst the theory says it cannot.

    enjoy the read.


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    John Brookes

    Scaper@60: Its a good idea to take legal action to stop people expressing ideas you disagree with. Go for it.


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    John Brookes

    Thanks crakar24@61. It certainly would be good news if global warming was slowing. Lets hope it keeps slowing.


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    Expressing ideas?

    These charlatans made all types of predictions that never eventuated based on their so called science.

    Only one will be targeted in the initial stages and will be forced to produce the science. Once the precedent is set then it will be open season.

    I see you are one of those leftists that have fallen for the rubbish. I see that others here are shooting your misplaced dogma to bits…you are out of your league, pal!


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    JPA Knowles

    In defence of the UK Met I’d say their 5 day forecastes are better than they were. However, if they rely upon probabilistic nonsense from their super computer to provide a forecaste for a coming season, it is inevitable that it will be wrong because it is only working from past circumstances and does not allow for new factors such as the variation in the Earth’s magnetic field a couple of years ago or the Cosmic Ray Flux.


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    spangled drongo

    Derek @ 20,

    Yes, Isotopegate makes for interesting reading and would scuttle Cancun if the MSM would go with it.

    Also BTW,

    Brisbanes first sub-30c Spring ever recorded. Just weather of course…..


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    manalive

    “Hard winters like last year’s or in 2005-2006 do not defy the premise of global warming [AGW], but rather confirm it.”

    The Earth, including of course Europe, most recently has been trending warmer for about three centuries, so according to the Petoukhov theory, the winters over that period should have been getting progressively colder which they haven’t.

    Is he proposing that somehow warming due to AGW (which he assumes) has an unexpected unique effect?

    These guys have an a priori belief in AGW (as defined by AR4) which leads them into logical absurdities.


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    Bulldust

    I see one of our favourite professors (Ove Hoegh-Guldberg) is going off like a frog in a sock at the ABC:

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/11/30/3080628.htm

    What amazes me is the precise scientific language used in the article:

    “So 65 million years ago they’ve got very good evidence … all the dinosaurs died because of smoke and stuff in the atmosphere from a meteor strike.”

    …and stuff…? It gets better:

    “So it’s the combination of this alteration to coastlines, climate change and everything…”

    The “everything” must be that “stuff” mentioned earlier, I guess:

    “But the point is that our activities on land have a big influence on what goes on in the oceans and now we are starting to wreak the harvest of those changes.”

    I hate to be pedantic, but what the heck… normally you “reap” harvests. And of course the best scientific analysis for last:

    “It’s mucking around with the heart and lungs of the planet – that’s essentially what the oceans are, a huge respiratory system.

    “We damage them, the consequences could be very serious.”

    Sad thing is… it’s our tax dollars paying to keep this mug employed.


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    Bob Malloy

    John Brookes:
    November 30th, 2010 at 12:48 pm

    Mark D@42 – nice graph. It shows that European temperatures for 1970 – 2005 is almost a carbon copy of 1880 – 1915. The same pattern that is, but warmer by just under one degree. The pattern is definitely a cool thing to investigate, but the warming is what matters.

    Even we realist acknowledge the end of the 20th century being warmer than the end of the 19th John, The little ice age only finished in the mid 1800′s and I for one appreciate that extra warmth.


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    Richard S Courtney

    Richard:

    At #33 you say:

    “Richard S Courtney:
    I think you will find that the “palm” trees growing in Cornwall are in fact New Zealand cabbage trees, which grow in a wide variety of habitats throughout the U.K., even as far north as Scotland. They cannot be taken as an indicator of warm, or even mild, climates.
    Richard (ex Yorkshire now New Zealand)”

    Sorry, but no.

    The species you mention does exist here in Cornwall. Several species of palm tree can be cultivated throughout the UK but do not grow in the wild throughout the UK.

    This link mentions 10 species of palm tree that grow in the wild in Cornwall.

    http://members.multimania.co.uk/cornishexotics/palms.html

    Richard


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    Tim

    A brilliant find, Bernadette. It serves to show us the depth of corrupted/unresearched jounalism that the public uncritically swallowed 10 years ago. Thank goodness the ‘awakening’ now occuring would see it for what it is.

    Good try Charles Onians – where is your apology published?


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    Bulldust

    And so the battle lines are drawn… Labor in the red corner, and the Greens in the ultra red corner…

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/climate/labor-and-greens-in-brawl-over-emissions-cut-target/story-e6frg6xf-1225963444537

    I feel like tapping my fingers together in glee … Eeeexcellent!


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    John Brookes

    Scaper@65: (is that short for manscaper?):

    These charlatans made all types of predictions that never eventuated based on their so called science.

    Oh, so you are taking economists to court? No? Maybe you’ve taken exception to real estate spruikers?

    I’ve got a prediction for you, and you can sue me for it if its wrong. You won’t get any joy from wasting the justice systems time on a political witch hunt. I’d say “good luck”, but that would be lying. I wish you no success at all.


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    John of Cloverdale WA

    Joe Bastardi, meteorologist and non-believer of the CO2-causes-global-warming hypothesis, responded recently to Dr.Vicky Pope, head of climate science at the AGW pushing Met Office. Note he doesn’t call her Dr. Pope but Ms. Pope. I wonder if she calls him Joe or that Italian Bastard.

    FRIDAY NIGHT, AS THE NORTHWEST FREEZES: A RESPONSE TO VICKI POPE COMMENT:

    Here it is:

    There’s a very clear warming trend, but it’s not as rapid as it was before, Pope told reporters yesterday in London. Where the average temperature rose at about 0.16 degrees per decade since the 1970s, the rate through the 2000s has been from 0.05 to 0.13 degrees, she said.

    No Ms. Pope, there is a very clear response to the warming cycle of the PDO (Pacific decadal oscillation) and AMO (Atlantic multidecadal oscillation) in tandem, and you should see the ENSO (El Niño/La Niña-Southern Oscillation) response within the background of warming that is caused by the larger multidecadol oscillations. So in the spirit of competition, just like last winter, let me issue another challenge to the UKMET office, which seems to love to trumpet warmth (some like it hot, right)…

    The 2011 temperature will FALL to levels comparable to 1999, ACCORDING TO THE OBJECTIVE SATELLITE DATA, EASILY ACCESSED HERE: http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/

    Game on, just like last winter, the response is to the ENSO, not CO2, just like the response in the coming decades will be to cool as the oceans cool, just like it was to warm like the oceans warm, with the lag as is well known in any stimulus-response system. And remember, in spite of the best efforts of those that want to twist my words, the cold winter for Europe and the eastern U.S. was made with a forecast for a global SPIKE in temperature, simple to see coming due to the Nino… Why? The temperatures respond to the oceanic temperature and the deck has been stacked for warm in the last 15-30 years.

    Do me a favor, if you are wrong, don’t quit, like you did with seasonal forecasting, just open your minds a bit. I do like the office as a whole, and do think they are good at what they do. Truth be told, I don’t want them judged by their worst day, but will challenge them when I don’t agree, and obviously a challenge looms here and has been issued. The forecast is made. Let’s see what becomes of it, and the link is there for all to watch, no fudging or adjustments from previous decades.

    Okay, fair enough… a challenge on the objective field of battle for all to watch.

    They now have a chance to tie this up if the global temperature does not fall.

    And if they admit it has to fall, then my point is made as to what the cause is!

    Ciao for now. ****


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    John Brookes

    Scaper:

    Just one more comment on your chances in the legal system. When you can’t sue an American investment bank for selling a product which it deliberately designed to fail, what chance do you think you’ve got against a climate scientist.

    What will the judge say? “I find you guilty of being a little over-enthusiastic and committed to your view of the world. I sentence you to watch Fox News for the next 3 weeks.”


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    Bob Malloy

    61
    scaper…:
    November 30th, 2010 at 3:48 pm

    I see Ove is at it again with his alarmism!
    I have a meeting (doing lunch) next week with the senior partner of a global law firm. We will be discussing legal action against Ove and others as I believe it’s time to put them and their wacky science in the box under oath.

    Can you please make sure that the greens most vociferous mouth piece, Christine Milne, is included in any law suit, I would dearly love to see her under the microscope, rather than mankind as a whole.


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    Mark

    I wonder why we don’t have media outlets like this in Oz.

    Article here.


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    John Brookes

    Mark@79: Perhaps because we have fewer morons here?


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    Baa Humbug

    John Brookes:
    November 30th, 2010 at 6:39 pm

    What will the judge say? “I find you guilty of being a little over-enthusiastic and committed to your view of the world. I sentence you to watch Fox News for the next 3 weeks.”

    That was truly funny, I coughed up bits of turkish bread and swallowed 2 olive pips.

    As much as I’d hope Scaper (is that SKYscaper?) would be successfull, I’d doubt the law suit would get off the ground, for much the same reasons as John points out, though I’m not as confident as John.

    John I wonder what would happen if when next you’re at the airport you start yelling “terrorists, terrorists abound, quick we need to act NOOOWWW!!!!”.
    How quickly will they release you when you tell them you were just “vociferously expressing your deeply held personal belief”?

    What I’m getting at is that I wouldn’t write-off a law suit, all it takes is a crafty lawyer and a sympathetic (sceptic) judge to make the defendants life difficult. The defendant may finally get off, but much much evidence would have been thru the cross-examination process.
    And really, that’s all us scepticons want, to be able to cross-examine decepticons under oath.


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    Mark

    Hey John, did you ever go to Climate Audit and explain to Steve McI where he is wrong? No? Thought not.

    Otherwise, just another typical drive by mouth-off from you.


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    Llew Jones

    All good fun about weather and climate but almost totally irrelevant, given that there can be no such entity as “world climate” or even a nation’s climate. e.g. it is meaningless to postulate there is an Australian climate. Which one is the Australian climate? Melbourne’s, North Western Victoria’s or say Brisbane’s etc, etc? Thus trying to speculate about world climate change on the basis of local and regional weather patterns is a game for the thoughtless. Melbourne for example is influenced by weather in the Antarctic/Southern Ocean, the Indian Ocean and the sub tropical northern States just to mention a few influences. For other locations around the Earth those influences are unique and will be different.

    That is why pinning the wide range of varying-with-time weather patterns that have been observed in the thousands of unique “climates” around the world on one variable, namely a suggested general slight warming of the Earth is a mug’s game. That is the reason CAGW is not accepted by that practical scientist; the “man in the street”, because he knows from experience that over his lifetime local weather patterns repeat themselves. Expressed in another way that is called natural climate (or long term weather) variation.

    The only bit of the puzzle that approaches “climate science” is the generally accepted logarithmic relationship between the change in the Earth’s temperature with increases in atmospheric concentrations of GHG like CO2 and water vapor. Anyone familiar with elementary mathematics knows what the curve of that relationship looks like and thus knows that there is “a law of diminishing returns” in play. Thus runaway global warming is, on this bit of “climate science”, impossible.

    Not to be beaten by science the AGW catastrophists suggest that the tiniest bit of warming of the atmosphere, caused by an anthropogenic increase in atmospheric CO2 evaporates more water and thus sets off a sort of chain reaction and thus will produce their yearned for catastrophic scenario. The present state of the empirical science is saying, more insistently, yeah and “pigs may fly”.


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    allen mcmahon

    Its just weather. Just like the way Perth Western Australia is about to have its warmest November since records began. Its just weather.

    John Prof. Barry Brooks at BNC would not agree. For him a heatwave in Adelaide with 8 days over 35c last November was proof of AGW. This year with all three months of spring temps below average and with above average rainfall the silence is deafening at BNC.

    For some CAGW alarmists all weather events are not equal judging by how events in Pakistan and Russia were portrayed earlier this year.


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    John Brookes

    Thanks Baa Humbug. Its not often something witty enters my head…..


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    Joe Lalonde

    Canada is seeing it’s fair share of record breaking cold as well on the west coast with LOTS of snow. Toronto, Ontario, Canada has predicted they may see as much as 3X the normal snow amounts this winter.

    This sure will put a big dent into that hockey stick and also being the hotest year ever!


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    John Smith

    Bulldust@74
    I will be looking forward to see Labor and the Greens duke it out over co2 carbon “pollution” reduction targets. It should be made into a movie called ‘Idiotic (Labor) vs even more idiotic (The Greens)’. Hopefully lots of popcorn will be sold beforehand.
    Oh did I mention that if they have it their way, we might have to ration our food and electricity.
    http://www.infowars.com/cancun-climate-change-summit-scientists-call-for-rationing-in-developed-world/


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    The ‘Palm trees’ that grow in Cornwall (and in many parts of the UK and Eire) are Cordyline Australis, the Cabbage Tree, native to New Zealand and introduced to the UK by one Capt. James Cook and his Botanist, Mr Banks. I have noticed quite a number of NZ native plants flourishing here in the UK, such as Hebes, which grow really well in London. There is a very large and sturdy Cabbage Tree growing in the Moat Garden at Windsor Castle.
    The name ‘Cabbage Tree’ is derived from the fact that Maori once harvested the ‘heads’ of this tree and cooked them to extract a sweet substance that was highly prized.


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    Mervyn Sullivan

    James Delingpole is on fire today … … actually he is always on fire!

    Here is one of his great articles published in January 2010 referring to the oldest thermometer readings going back 351 years of continuous recording – the Central England Thermometer record (CET).

    There is a similar record that has been maintained in Prague, Czec Republic, which correlates well with the CET. Both show no signal of human involvement in global warming. Most remarkable of all is that in 351 years, there has only been a quarter of a degree celcius increase in temperature (0.26 degree celcius rise per century rate since 1659). Hardly a case to support anthropogenic global warming!

    The fact is that the IPCC’s global warming has only happened in its climate computer models, and created by corrupt scientists who have manipulated the surface temperature data with a bias towards creating warming.

    When are governments going to wake up? Scam scam scam!


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    UK Sceptic

    It snowed on the West Lancashire coast 2000. It was the year I moved house and we had several inches of global warming on the ground a week before Christmas. Certainly deep enough for sledging. I guess Hamleys should go elsewhere for their winter weather forcasts so they can stock up on sledges. I believe Piers Corbyn might have the solution…


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    Roy Hogue

    scaper,

    You’re probably in for a tough fight. But give it all you can. If it gets to trial the exposure will be a hard blow to the warmers.

    GOOD LUCK!


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    Robuk

    Brian G Valentine:
    November 30th, 2010 at 1:55 am

    I wish people like Phil Jones were a thing of the past.

    I mean, their views, of course – I don’t wish any ill to befall anyone.

    If they are a thing of the past they can`t shoot themselves in the foot.

    http://s446.photobucket.com/albums/qq187/bobclive/?action=view&current=Theydontwantrawdata.mp4


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    Richard S Courtney

    Alexander K:

    At #88 you are making the same mistaken assertion as’Richard’ made at #33. Please read my reply and its link at #72.

    Richard


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    wes george

    scraper @61:

    We Want Climate Justice Now!

    It’s a brilliant idea to develop a case, any case, to drag the CAGW spruikers into court. A trial searches for the truth with many of the same methods as science does. Moreover, a judge can compel evidence with subpoena powers out of those who have something to hide. If the trial was sufficiently high profile it would be a very revealing exercise. Perhaps it should be broadcast live on TV or at least webcast. It’s the debate we have to have.

    Last year Michael Mann threatened to sue Minnesotans for Global Warming (M4GW) for their “Hide the Decline” musical satire video. Jeff Davis of No Cap-and-Trade said “If Doctor Mann decides to sue, we would welcome the opportunity to do legal discovery. I believe he’s hiding more than just ‘the decline.”

    Obviously, Mann was bluffing. No one on the warming side wants a high profile investigation or debate on the facts about global warming. Not Al Gore, Not Joe Romm, Not the RealClimate goons. That’s why in the end some group will have to sue the bastards, just to drag them kicking and screaming out into the bright light of rational inquiry.

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/04/20/prominent-climategate-figure-threatens-lawsuit-over-spoof-video-no-cap-and-trade-coalition-says-“bring-it-on”/


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    Joe Veragio

    Mark D.:
    November 30th, 2010 at 12:31 pm

    I followed Joe Veragio @27 link and end up with this cool graphic:
    http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/20vs00warming.gif
    Showing an uncanny….absolutely uncanny correlation between the warming trend starting 1880 and the one starting 1970.

    All credit for bringing that revealing link to our attention belongs to Adolf Balik @ #24
    article at: http://notrickszone.com/2010/11/28/lesson-learned-predicting-the-european-climate-from-the-cet-record/
    but thanks for the acknowledgement anyway Mark D.
    I’m able to really impress my climate agnostic colleagues now with this confident & authoritative explanation of recent weather, from Adolf, on the first day of Cancun too, which makes it ever so much more topical . Thanks again Adolf @#24.


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    crakar24

    John @ 60,

    “Oh, and as for Adelaide (you aren’t from there, are you?)*yes i am*, they had a blisteringly hot November last year – record hottest, if my memory serves me correctly. But its just weather, just like Perth’s record cold June this year.”

    It was not the record hottest it was the equal hottest, tied with the January heatwave in the year of our lord 1906.

    A majority of simpletons believe this was a “sign” that the Lord AGW would appear but after 12 months he has not and so the search for “signs” continues. If you are not one of these simpletons John then i am glad and if i gave you the impression i thought you were then i am sincerely sorry.

    Regards

    Crakar


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    David Burgess

    From Bolts site (John of Cloverdale)

    An engineer, a statistician and a climate scientist were all asked what 2 + 2 was. The engineer said it was 4. The statistician said he was 95% confident that the answer lay between 3.95 and 4.05. The climate scientist said, “What would you like it to be?”


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    wes george

    Crakar,

    There they go again. John warns @60:

    However one thing we should expect is more water in the atmosphere. And that water comes back down as snow or rain. So maybe we shouldn’t be too surprised at the recent floods and heavy snowfall.

    On the Radio National this morning some academic expert was saying with global warming in 30 years time we can expect less rainfall in the Murray-Darling catchment. Yet warmists also say that more warming equals higher evaporation rates and so we can expect more rain and, yes, snowfall in the future. Therefore, both increases and decreases in rainfall and snowfall are cited as evidence for CAGW.

    Every possible climatic condition is clearly evidence for CAGW. Gotta love a theory that ROBUST! ;-)


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    crakar24

    Wes,

    If we take Johns comment at face value he is wrong on a number of issues, John dont take offence to this as it is not your fault (remember simpletons so be careful).

    I agree one thing we should expect is more water vapour in the atmosphere of course if it is not there then the theory has been holed below the water line. Luckily for us wind shear measurements from radio sondes confirm the increase in water vapour.

    Secondly warmer air holds more moisture which is why the original theory (AGW theory MKI) claims less rain more drought and by the end of it all the oceans will be suspended above our heads.

    However AGW theory MK VII as described by John above claims the water vapour will simply rise and then drop again. This new theory has a couple of profound ramifications. Firstly if this were to happen then in theory the hot spot would not exist (wind shear measurements are wrong).

    More importantly when water vapour evaporates it takes heat away from the surface so the surface cools then when it drops back down it cools the surface even more, rain comes from low level clouds which cools the surface even more.

    This cooling will also cool the oceans absorbing more CO2, a reduction in atmospheric CO2 will reduce the amount of extra water vapour rising then falling again increasing the surface temp and causing the oceans to warm releasing CO2 .

    Picture a simpletons eyes rolling around in its empty head and you can understand why some people actually believe this AGW crap and that is why the AGW simpletons accept the stories they are told that everything that happens is a sign of AGW.


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    crakar24

    Anyway whilst John has been scrambling to prop up the church of scientology there has been a mass migration going on, this mass migration has emitted more CO2 than all of us could do in our life times. Of course i am talking about COP16 at cancun a luxury holiday resort in Mexico, the sole purpose of this massing of minds is to figure out a way to stop us from producing CO2 so they can emit more. Whilst the gorging at the cracked crab buffet goes on a number of great ideas have been floated to do this.

    So far the major front runners are:

    1, Force the western world to go back to WWII like rationing.

    2, Putting mirrors in space to reflect sunlight.

    3, Covering Green land in a massive blanket so it does not melt.

    4, Sprinkling iron filings into the ocean so algea can suck up CO2

    5, Seeding clouds (creating clouds to block the sun)

    6, Artificial trees that will suck CO2 out of the air (do they need to look like trees?)

    7, Painting roofs white

    8, Man made volcanos that produce sulphates

    Now have a good read of what the high priests are suggesting here John as they sit in a beautiful exotic location.

    Some people will view this as humanity working together to solve the greatest challenge mankind has ever faced whilst people that live in the real world will look at this and say “what the f@*k was in that cracked crab?”

    Who in there right mind would think you could get a f@#$@@!&*g blanket to cover greenland, every point mentioned generates a similar response. These people are either nut jobs and if so we are all in a world of hurt or they are very smart and have absolutely no intentions of ever doing something so utterly stupid but to the mindless drones out there they can by themselves so time. Hopefully enough time to enjoy another all expenses paid holiday at one of the worlds most luxurious locations in COP17.

    So back to the two predictions, which one will be proven correct by the passage of time and which one will fall flat on its face?


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    Roy Hogue

    When you see the government subsidizing, offering tax or other incentives for doing something, follow this rule. Run the other way.

    The chance is real good that it’s either not technologically or not economically viable, maybe both. Nothing gets slipshod merchandise to market faster than the government’s promise to subsidize it for the consumer. I know, I fell for solar water heating along with quite a few of my neighbors. It was a flop from the first day but since you sink $3 thousand dollars and high expectations into it the truth takes a while to settle in. Even if it had all kept working up to this very day it would not have saved enough to justify itself.

    I suspect solar electricity will be troublesome too. After the collector panels have been on the roof a couple of years and subjected to summer and winter temperature extremes there’s a good chance they’ll leak.


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    David, UK

    Mervyn Sullivan said: (December 1st, 2010 at 12:20 am)

    When are governments going to wake up? Scam scam scam!

    No no no! When are YOU going to wake up, Mervyn? The Governments are PUSHING this agendum – it is THEY who are behind this scam fraud.


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    Post 102 SPOT ON.

    Whilst “scientists” ride the gravy train, provided by Government (at our expense), and,
    so called “skeptics” DO NOT QUESTION the “greenhouse effect theory”, because it is not worth it………………

    We are going to loose.

    “Skeptics” WAKE UP, your part of the problem we all face.

    STOP MERELY QUIBBLING THE FIGURES OF AGW, AND,
    START QUESTIONING THE PRINCIPLES OF “GREENHOUSE”.

    Post 20 may be of help.


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    Mark

    G’day David,UK.

    This might interest you. Link here.


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    Mark

    Ummm, OK click on the Cancun link.


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    Alexander Davidson

    I live near Gatwick airport, currently closed with 8 inches of level snow and -2 deg. C.

    Expected high today is -1 deg C.

    Here is the latest Corbyn weather forecast – coldest winter for 100 years: http://climaterealists.com/attachments/ftp/WANews10No37ESSENCEOFWINTER2010-11Forecast.pdf

    Enjoy the Sun Aussies and pray that Cancun’s AGW venomous serpents are struck dumb as they realise the enormity of their folly…..:o)


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    wes george

    CO2 from man-made sources accounts for 7 billion tonnes of the 220 billion tonnes of carbon equivalent emitted each year – or about 3%. But the question of whether man-made CO2 causes unprecedented and dangerous global warming – the notion behind so much social and political angst about ‘carbon’ – remains in serious dispute.

    http://www.quadrant.org.au/blogs/doomed-planet/2010/11/alex-stuart

    Skeptics have done a pretty convincing deconstruction of the so-called greenhouse theory. It’s just that the Climate Mafia is deaf, dumb and blind to any inconvenient facts.

    “In August 2009, Dr Richard Lindzen of MIT and his collaborator Dr. Yong-Sang Choi inferred from satellite data that feedback isn’t positive at all. Using observations from the ERBE instrument on the ERBS satellite (launched in 1984), they analysed the relationship between tropical sea-surface temperatures and top-of-atmosphere heat radiation – and concluded that feedback is far lower than the positive 2.0 to 4.5 times assumed in IPCC’s models and is in fact negative…. They pegged climate sensitivity at 0.7, meaning higher temperatures from more CO2 wouldn’t be amplified, but would be reduced”

    In August 2010, Dr Roy Spencer and Dr. William Braswell of UAH published a paper, also based on observational evidence, from CERES and the AMSR-E instrument on the newer Aqua satellite. Spencer and Braswell likewise demonstrated that real feedback falls far below the theoretical levels built into IPCC models and must be negative. They showed that changes in the reflectivity of clouds are causes of constant adjustment in temperature, rather than effects hitherto believed to be positive feedback. They concluded that a doubling of man-made CO2 would raise average temperature by a net 0.6oC – minimal in historical, seasonal and even daily terms.”

    So much for the strongly positive feedback from water vapour that is necessary to amplify the effect of CO2 induced warming. The apocalypse has been postponed. Again. But don’t tell the Prime Minister.

    Just before voters went to the polls Ms Gillard again stated categorically: “I rule out a carbon tax”. Of course, that statement was rapidly rescinded after the election of a hung parliament created the political imperative that Labor court the Green and independent members who now held the balance of power.

    Making a dramatic U-turn, Ms Gillard rapidly segued to a new policy position. This involved scrapping the idea of a citizen’s assembly and erecting in its place a new Multi-party Committee on Climate Change (MCCC) to advise on policy options, which now again were to include of necessity (hat tip to the Greens) a carbon dioxide tax.

    With the Liberal-National coalition declining to participate, the MCCC ended up as including the PM herself as chair; her own Deputy Leader, Wayne Swan, and Climate Change Minister, Greg Combet; Greens leader and deputy-leader, Bob Brown and Christine Milne; and independent Tony Windsor, with the first lower house Green MP Adam Bandt as an additional “advisor”.

    The primary question that the MCCC needed to deal with, of course, was whether dangerous climate change is occurring, and if so what policy options might be available to mitigate it? First and foremost then, there was a scientific issue to be resolved.

    The committee’s state of mind on that issue was rapidly clarified by Ms. Gillard, who announced on September 27 the starting assumption that a carbon dioxide price was required to reduce “pollution” and to encourage investment in low-emission technologies.

    A belief in anti-carbon dioxide measures to combat dangerous warming was therefore a pre-requisite for participation in the committee. As well, Ms. Gillard also announced that under the MCCC’s terms of reference its deliberations and papers were to remain confidential until otherwise agreed…

    https://www.quadrant.org.au/blogs/doomed-planet/2010/11/bob-carter

    Because an investigation to how the government should seek to tax it citizens and restricts their civil liberties in a grand quixotic scheme to manipulate the Earth’s Climate should be TOP SECRET.


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    val majkus

    sorry if this link has been posted
    http://notrickszone.com/2010/12/01/global-warming-meets-its-stalingrad-cold-of-the-century/
    an excerpt
    H/t: NoTricksZone reader Bernd Felsche

    Right now with the bitter cold bearing down on Europe, the German media are scrambling like piglets on an ice rink. Indeed the news of global warming coming out of Cancun are coming across as a bizarre joke. Everywhere in the media we hear something like: “Duh duh duh…it’s…er, man-made climate change induced weather extremes, or something! We can’t explain it! But hold on – wait – it’s now in our models! Yup, there it is! Just the latest sign of global warming.”

    Stern Magazine: “Cold of the century”

    Stern asks the German Weather Service DWD): How long is this warming cold going to last?


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    That’s amusing three do not likes for my post 103.
    I wonder who..

    Anyways, anyone like to “explain” why there is no ideal gas law and gravity taken into account in the K&T budgets…
    I have my own suggestions why, naturally…
    Posts 75, 77, and 78.
    http://www.globalwarmingskeptics.info/forums/thread-609-post-7373.html#pid7373

    Maybe you would like me to write the subjects covered in the posts I refer to in the link as a guest post Jo.
    Thought not…..


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    Not only is James Delingpole on fire, Richard North of EU Referendum is burning with anger.
    Emphasis mine.

    “It is time therefore to recall that fatuous idiot Dr David Viner who so gaily told us in The Independent ten years ago that “Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past”. Then, Viner was a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, from which seat of learning he so cleverly informed us that within a few years winter snowfall would become “a very rare and exciting event”.

    “What is worse is that Viner is still on the public payroll, working for the British Council, where he is helping to spend the £2.9 billion of our money allocated by the British government as aid to assist developing countries in “adapting” to climate change – far more than is spent on dealing with the weather conditions here”

    “If there was any sense or justice in this world, the likes of Viner would be stripped naked and forced to parade in the snow he so confidently predicted would become “a very rare and exciting event”. Then he should be drummed out of office with neither pension nor compensation.”

    “But as long as fools like Viner are rewarded, and we continue to pay for it, then the public stupidity will continue to prevail. Yet, the existing political parties are not listening – and we cannot rely (and nor should we) on students to do our dirty work. We need to put a million angry people on the streets.”


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    Tel

    Now the Met Office denies that it issues long range forecasts. It only does monthly outlooks (though they don’t seem to provide a link to that) and 100 year ultra long range reports of guaranteed catastrophes.

    Which is just an admission that they are totally incapable of doing their job.


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    Llew Jones

    @103
    Derek:
    December 1st, 2010 at 5:19 pm

    Here is a defence of the greenhouse effect by Roy Spencer who, through his collection and analysis of data, is at the forefront of the challenge to the CAGW positive feedback hypothesis.

    http://www.drroyspencer.com/2009/04/in-defense-of-the-greenhouse-effect/

    As far as playing into the hands of the CAGW crowd, who summarily dismiss the contention that the “greenhouse” effect is not possible, it seems the better way is to “defeat” the exaggerated importance they attach to anthropogenic atmospheric CO2 emissions. The basic science, theirs and ours, tells us that CO2 alone cannot have anything but an insignificant and diminishing part in global warming.

    If it can be demonstrated the CO2/water vapor feedback is neutral or negative then the alarmists, given the GH effect exists, are up a well known Aussie creek in a barbwire canoe without a paddle.


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    There is no stopping these alarmists, nor do they have any sense of shame at all, none zip zilch nada sifir zero….

    Expert says global warming could bring colder weather to Wales

    Dec 4 2010 by Rachael Misstear, Western Mail

    RESEARCHERS have warned the last three winters’ cold spells could be a taste of things to come for Wales – with even a chance glaciers could return to Snowdon within 40 years.

    According to one theory, global warming could paradoxically trigger a collapse in temperatures in Western Europe.

    Dr Alun Hubbard, a reader at Aberystwyth University’s Centre for Glaciology, said future Welsh winters could be similar to those currently experienced in Iceland and southern Greenland.

    He said the current icy weather gripping Wales was unrelated to global warming or other climate trends – but it could be a foretaste of what winters will be like in Wales if the Gulf Stream weakens or moves south

    Read More http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/2010/12/04/expert-says-global-warming-could-bring-colder-weather-to-wales-91466-27765623/#ixzz17D3G2nX4


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    Mark D.

    Yes Baa H., they are shameless. I imagine by now they have a large file of “predictions” to cover any observation. It is silly, don’t you think, that glacier loss is evidence of AGW and the opposite; glacier rebuilding would also be evidence of AGW.

    It’s more evidence that the warmists are not interested in learning about how the climate systems work, but instead are interested in promoting their religion.


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    http://news.scotsman.com/news/Stewart-Stevenson-quits-over-snow.6657967.jp
    Scottish minister resigns over his mishandling of winter weather.

    If only the global warming witchdoctors had as much integrity.


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    Rod McLaughlin:#115
    December 12th, 2010 at 10:36 am

    thnx Rod, great news. Richard north of EUReferendum will be pleased. I’ll click over there see what hes got to say


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