Recent Posts
-
Saturday
-
60% are skeptics: Only 13% of UK voters say Net Zero is more important than cost of living
-
Friday
-
Climate change is causing South Africa to rise and sink at the same time
-
Thursday
-
Why is the renewables industry allowed to sponsor political advertising in schools and call it “education”?
-
Wednesday
-
In trying to be a small target, the Liberals accidentally disappeared
-
Tuesday
-
Monday
-
The best thing about the Australian election was that Nigel Farage’s party won 30% in the UK
-
Sunday
-
Saturday — Election Day Australia
-
Vote for freedom…
-
Friday
-
Bombshell: Sir Tony Blair says climate policies are unworkable, irrational, and everyone is afraid of being called a denier
-
Thursday
-
Blackout in Spain to cost 2-4 billion Euro, likely due to solar plants — blind and biased ABC says “cause is a mystery”
-
Wednesday
-
Days after Spain reaches 100% renewable, mass blackouts hit, due to mysterious “rare atmospheric phenomenon”
-
Tuesday
-
Help needed: Site under DDoS attack from hundreds of thousands of unique IPs this week — especially China and the USA
-
Monday: Election Day Canada
-
When the Labor Party talk about “The Science” the Opposition can easily outflank and outgun them with bigger, better science
-
Saturday
-
UK Gov spends £50 m to dim sun to create slightly less beach weather
-
Friday
-
The cocoa price crisis is a Big Government price fixing disaster, not a climate change one
-
Thursday
-
Blame the Vikings! Moss found in East Antarctica lived in warmer summers a thousand years ago.
-
Wednesday
-
Tuesday
-
Monday
-
Easter Sunday
-
Saturday
-
Good Friday
-
In crash-test dummy land, we solve teenage girl climate anxiety with $500b in fantasy weather experiments…
-
Thursday
-
Nothing says “Safe and Effective” like destroying all the data from Australia’s giant abandoned vaccine study
-
Wednesday
-
Who owns the oceans? The UN wants to tax ships to reduce carbon emissions — a $40b windfall for unaccountable global bureaucrats
-
Tuesday
-
Monday
-
Sunday
-
Saturday
-
Conservatives promise to axe the car tax that would have added $10k to petrol and diesel cars
-
Friday
-
The monster Green Tariffs we put on ourselves are worse than a foreign trade war
-
Thursday
-
Trump goes gangbusters on coal power and coal mining to supply AI energy demand
-
Wednesday
-
Instead of $8b in rebates, Labor could have built gas and coal plants and actually made cheap electricity
|
What can I say? Putin has the same scientific quals as Al Gore, but more polar bears. The Greenies should love him:
In an interview by CNBC at the International Arctic Forum in Arkhangelsk, Russia, Putin was asked about the rollback of environmental regulations from U.S. President Donald Trump‘s administration.
“Those people who are not in agreement with opponents (of climate change) may not be at all silly,” Putin replied via an interpreter.
With 10% of the Russian GDP dependent on the Arctic, he also said:
“Climate change brings in more favorable conditions and improves the economic potential of this region,”…
We can’t have that then.
Mr. Putin thinks skeptics are right,
To reject the fake warmist fight,
As a great waste of time,
When a mild Arctic clime,
Makes the future in every way bright.
— Ruairi
h/t WS.
9.9 out of 10 based on 63 ratings
The unravelling of the climate religion continues: Graham Richardson is an old-school Australian Labor powerbroker and former senior minister, and yesterday he was bagging out Adam Bandt, the Greens MP, for his atrocious timing, and “meanness of spirit” in using cyclone Debbie to score political points about climate policy “while hundreds of thousands of people are wondering what they will have left.”
What’s remarkable is how flat out unapologetic, no-pussy-footing plain and clear he is, and how much he is making the same points that sensible skeptics have been saying. Is this the first sign of a shift in the ranks of the Labor Party?
Richardson, 2015 was determined to fight for carbon pricing:
You need not worry, dear readers. This fearless correspondent will continue to wage war on this issue even when all my comrades have surrendered.
Graham Richardson 2017:
It is becoming increasingly difficult to remain a hard-core supporter of climate change belief. The entry into the debate this week of zany zealot Adam Bandt was horribly wrong on several fronts.
He [Bandt] made the staggering claim that Malcolm Turnbull would have “blood on his hands” if he supported the building of coal-fired power stations, exclaiming that these stations would cause even more cyclones to hit the coast.
There is no evidence upon which to base this claim. In fact, over the past three or four years, far north Queensland has had almost no cyclones and experienced wet season failures in each of these years. The dam in Townsville is at a miserable 18 per cent because of those failures.
Sounds like a true skeptic:
Cyclones have been around forever and the advent of coal-fired power stations has neither increased nor decreased their frequency.
You would think this bloke would have learned a real lesson from Tim Flannery’s attempts…
Richardson goes on to mention failed predictions, and how Flannery got it “spectacularly wrong” and even how Arctic ice is melting, but Antarctic ice is stable. It’s not news to us, but to hear from a Labor guy is. And Richardson was one of the ones leading Labor into the Enviro-green mould nearly 30 years ago. Fitting then, if all these years later, he is leading them out of it:
As far back as 1989, I was the minister who took a submission to cabinet on global warming, as this phenomenon was then called. I am not prepared to dump my core belief, but like the sceptics, my view has gradually changed and so should theirs.
To get some idea of just how far he has come, here’s what he said nearly two years ago:
“Labor vacated the arena of argument. The sceptics and deniers have turned the 70 per cent-plus belief in climate change into a minority because no one has engaged them.” – Graham Richardson, May 2015
And I can’t resist, indulge me, I still like my reply at the time: No one has engaged the deniers! Oh really? says JoNova
That’s right Graham, we unfunded bloggers and the few surviving skeptical scientists not evicted and blackballed from our universities (yet) have tricked 20% of the population because no one has put forward the climate change arguments except for: The Climate Commission, CSIRO, Deutsche Bank, Citigroup, Royal Dutch Shell, GE, Panasonic, The ABC, The BBC, The Guardian, Fairfax, The Australian government, most universities, The EU, The UN, The World Bank, and the IMF.
With a budget of nothing we’re winning. Why? We have nature on our side.
Reading Richardson’s comments in 2015, he might argue that he was bagging out the Greens then, and he still believes in climate change now, the difference is that now, he sounds more and more like a skeptic and has gone in hard to mock the prophets of doom.
Richardson 2015:
I am starting to feel like the lone Japanese soldier stranded on a long-forgotten Pacific island still fighting a war for a lost cause. I am still a believer in climate change. I am not hysterical about it and don’t believe our cities and towns are about to be inundated by some permanent tsunami caused by human activity. I do believe our rainfall patterns will be interrupted and some areas will be drier, others wetter. It would be wonderful if we could focus on what those changes might be.
The Labor Party need more sensible voices like Richardson. To Richardson, when he says skeptics should be willing to change their views, I say, absolutely. My views are still open to change, and in the last ten years they’ve changed, I’ve become more and more skeptical.
9.7 out of 10 based on 99 ratings
The SA blackout cost around half a billion, and building a new gas plant (with a $170b in green bribes) adds another half. It’s now emerged that Alinta offered Jay Weatherill a deal to keep the Port Augusta power plant running which he turned down. If he had paid just $30m to keep the Northern coal fired station in business, there might have been no statewide blackout, and no need for regular load shedding. Wholesale electricity contracts in SA have risen from 8c per KWhr to 14c since mid last year.
The owner of the now-defunct Port Augusta power station made a secret offer to keep generating electricity until mid-2018 in return for $25 million from the State Government — 22 times less than its $550 million power plan.
In the six-page letter supplied to The Advertiser by the Liberals, Alinta warns of significant risk to the security of South Australia’s power supply and a surge in electricity prices — costing the state $56 million to $112 million a year — if the power station and associated Leigh Creek brown coal mine were to close.
Other sources have told The Advertiser that Alinta made another bid for $30 million to the government, which made a rejected counter-offer of only $8 million. Alinta then announced in June 2015 that it would close the station.
WHAT ALINTA WARNED
Closure of Port Augusta power plant would trigger:
■ Significant risk generally to SA’s power supply security.
■ Likely increase in wholesale cost of electricity, between $4-8 per megawatt hour. This would cost SA economy $56-$112 million a year.
■ $150 million of regional gross domestic product is cut.
■ $4.5 million lost revenue in foregone coal royalties in payroll tax.
Businesses across the state took an estimated $450 million hit because of the statewide blackout and mining giant BHP Billiton has said that outages at Olympic Dam cost it $137 million.
Having knocked back such a sensible offer, the SA government did what any self-serving government would, and kept the offer hidden, even after FOI requests. Weatherill cited a confidentiality clause. Nonetheless, the Libs have the whole document, and now so does everyone else.
Presumably Weatherill could not bring himself to “subsidize” coal power — how the Greens would have howled. But how screwed up is the free market when the cheapest form of electricity needs subsidies to compete with other subsidies offered one of the most expensive competitors. All Weatherill would have been doing is giving back some of what Big-Government had taken. Alinta closed the cheapest power source in SA because it was forecast to lose as much as $10m a year by 2020.
Weatherill made a billion dollar mistake presumably to stop people like Sarah Hanson Young calling him names. How much more will the people of SA have to pay for Weatherills ideological zealotry?
Keep reading →
9.4 out of 10 based on 109 ratings

The Final AEMO Report on the big-SA Blackout deals up some hard truths, and contradicts its earlier claim that the “energy mix” didn’t matter. The key theme here is about the system inertia. The Blackout on Sept 28 last year was an accident waiting to happen, and it wasn’t storm damage to lines that caused it. The blackout would not have happened if wind power had not been so dominant.
The transition to a 35% wind powered system left the SA grid very vulnerable. On Sept 28 last year, the safety settings on wind turbines were overly sensitive and when voltages “bumped” the turbines shut off suddenly, but those shutoffs hit the system too fast, and that caused the interconnector to shut off too, sacrificing SA to protect the rest of the national grid. The settings themselves are not the main issue — because they can be changed to prevent a repeat. It is a fixable problem — what is harder to fix, is the lack of inertia, and the sheer complexity. These are the biggest challenges of any renewables grid. We can fix even those problems, but at what cost in order to change the weather 100 years from now?
The AEMO report mentions that the “intermittency” of wind power was not a problem, but that’s a strawman. It is true on the blistering scale that a grid crisis unfolds at, that intermittency is not an issue. (The graph in Figure 14 covers just five hundreths of a second). But on a longer scale the-intermittency-problem set the scene. Intermittency is a problem for the pricing, the market, and in the long run, it, and the subsidies to compensate for it, was what made cheap coal powered stations unviable.
The Final Report “Black System South Australia” 273p
External Review on the Final Report
The key difference was the lack of synchronous generators
The Heywood interconnector has broken before but this time SA didn’t have enough “inertia”. (Credit to the ABC for doing a decent job on this):
AEMO said unforeseen separation and complete loss of the Heywood Interconnector has occurred six times in the past 17 years.
But in every other instance, the system stayed alive.
“The key differentiator between the 28 September 2016 event and the other three events is that there was significantly lower inertia in SA in the most recent event, due to a lower number of on-line synchronous generators,” the report said.
“This resulted in a substantially faster rate of change of frequency compared to the other events, exceeding the ability of the under-frequency load-shedding scheme to arrest the frequency fall before it dropped below 47Hz.”
The independent review blames synchronous inertia:
– The system inertia on the SA side was not sufficient to maintain the frequency drop (once the Haywood interconnector tripped) and to make the under frequency load shedding (UFLS) effective. This is a key point. This is illustrative from Table 11.
 The Heywood Interconnector has suffered a “complete loss” before. This time the system had more asynchronous (i.e. mostly renewable) generators.
The state with “must run” renewables will need to have “must run” thermal generation:
– The system inertia requirements must be carefully evaluated to ensure system stability in the event of extreme disturbances as the one that led to the black system. This is identified in the report. ‘Must run’ thermal generation may have to be identified. Synchronous condensers may be investigated as a potential solution if the thermal generation dispatch is expected to be low under specific load conditions. Generation mix is identified mentioned throughout the report as an important consideration from a power system security perspective.
More renewables means the whole grid system needs to be redesigned:
Keep reading →
9.9 out of 10 based on 65 ratings
This image was taken at about 6pm EST as darkness started to sweep across the nation. (It is all dark now).
For sheer weather voyerism (forgive me people of Ayr-to-Mackay): at the BOM satellite animation watch night befall the nation and notice how the the clouds appear for-all-the-world like river rapids flowing over rocks. Up close in the darkness, the clouds roil and churn like a wave smashing over a beach. (I’m sure if someone could capture some cropped video it would be impossible to tell if it were clouds or waves, see the “white-water” above Antarctica. See the two waves collide explosively into each other over the Pilbara in NW WA).
Best wishes to everyone in Debbie’s path tonight.
UPDATE:
12 noon QLD Time: Hamilton Island is on the edge of the eye right now according to the radar. Latest Observations at Hamilton Island show wind gusts peaked at 263km/hr at 10:30am Qld time. Lowest pressure 961HpA. About 120mm rain recorded in last 24 hours. [Copy of Obs, Copy of Radar.] On the Dvorak scale the cyclone was a 6.5 (8 is Max) but has lost some intensity and is down to 5.4. 947mB, 109.8 kts. [Dvorak copy here].
9.3 out of 10 based on 48 ratings
TonyFromOz reports that the first generator at Hazelwood Power Station has stopped after 53 years of operation.
If only the Victorian government saw value in keeping an old cheap power generator going. Marvel that even though this plant can sell wholesale electricity at 3 or 4 cents per KWhr it is unable to make a profit. There is no free market in electricity in Australia, only the illusion of it. Hands up who thinks a million households would buy direct from Hazelwood and keep it going, if there was no government intervention to stop them? — Jo
 Hazelwood Power Station, closes, March 2017. Photo David Maddison.
_____________________
Hazelwood Update – The shutdown has started
At 1.51AM Monday 27th March, Unit 8 was the first Unit at Hazelwood to shut down. It reduced power at around 3.45PM on Sunday afternoon from around 170MW to between 128MW and 134MW, trying vainly to stay operational for as long as possible. At 11.05PM Sunday night, power started falling even more, leading me to believe it was starting the shutdown process, which took almost three hours. Power fell off over the next almost three hours and finally, it stopped generating at 1.51AM on Monday morning.
At the end of Sunday, Hazelwood had generated 14.8% more power than every wind plant in Australia over the last 28 days. That extra 14.8% amounted to 129.696GWH, enough power to supply the 24 hour needs for 265,000 Australian homes for those 28 days.
Tony. March 27, 2017 at 2:39 am
TonyfromOz has been updating his record of the last month of the Hazelwood plant here.
________________________
I don’t expect we will see any particular crisis or price spike this week, but I know people are very interested in this process. The system will continue on just fine until it doesn’t…
PS: Dont’ forget the shutdown will mean death to barramundi and cichlids in the artificially warmed lake next to it. But then cooling is supposed to be a good thing isn’t it? h/t David M
h/t David B.
9.6 out of 10 based on 83 ratings
…
8.6 out of 10 based on 29 ratings
Taxing a basic molecule of life on Earth was never going to be easy.
Leaked paper exposes EU abuse of climate loophole
EXCLUSIVE/ European Union countries exploited loopholes in United Nations forestry rules to pocket carbon credits worth €600 million and the equivalent of global-warming emissions from 114 million cars.
That’s slightly more cars than exist in Germany, France and Italy combined.
You will not believe, governments overstated their logging targets then claimed credits for the forests they didn’t cut down, and the EU paid them for it.
Just saving the world, one lie at a time.
The document said that leaving the loophole open risked 133 million tonnes of unearned carbon credits falling into governments hands.
133 million tonnes is worth €665 million at today’s carbon price and is equivalent to 127 million cars on the road.
It’s a market based on intentions instead of a product. What could possibly go wrong?
9.4 out of 10 based on 78 ratings
After the 2009 peak of Copenhagen-fever and ClimateGate, media coverage dropped precipitously. Then there’s been a kind of dead cat bounce as the extreme voodoo climate meme was pumped and every hot afternoon became a front page headline. But media interest has plummeted — and in a US election year. To some extent this was coming as the crowd was tired of the hottest year after the hottest year, the tipping points came and went, the apocalypse didn’t happen but the fatigue did. But there is more to that crash that just weariness. Looks like Trump just killed climate news…
See Grist: Major TV Networks spent just 50 minutes on climate change combined last year…
 …
Climate broadcast coverage was already over the peak before the election year, but the crushing collapse in a “hottest ever massive El Nino year” says a lot. Trumps mockery of the topic was something the media news broadcasters couldn’t handle. It wasn’t a case of Any News Is Good News as the cliche goes, if Trump or the Deplorables had been given any real airtime the whole rent-seeking fantasy gravy train would have run off the rails.
The Boy Who Cried Warming had blamed climate change for droughts, storms, snow, lost cows, and “wrong” voters. There is nothing left. Every shade of near and far apocalypse has been done to death, and then Trump called their bluff so they ran away. They had used mockery and namecalling to silence critics for years, but when Trump owned their mockery and threw it back, they had no ammo left. They had not won the debate through reason and argument but through ridicule. He just turned their main weapon back at them.
9.6 out of 10 based on 106 ratings
Righto. It’s time to blame climate change for causing British voters to vote against German rule of Britain. Back when the climate was ideal, the Brits would’ve been fine with that.
Instead, even though the world has not warmed for 80% of the history of the EU, the EU is breaking up because of climate change.
It’s not like Al Gore to draw conclusions from a long nebulous chain of dubious reasoning, but here’s how it goes: Coal gives off CO2, which causes droughts according to models that don’t work, and that made Syrians migrate. Everyone got unhappy and voted for Brexit.
Brexit was caused in part by climate change, former US Vice-President Al Gore has said, warning that extreme weather is creating political instability “the world will find extremely difficult to deal with”.
Really, it’s all about coal, cars and plastic bags. If the EU had only put in more wind farms, the UK would have voted to stay in.
If it weren’t for a lack of rain in the middle east, the British Isles would want to leave decisions about immigration, fishing and light bulbs to their friends in Europe. What were they thinking when they voted to save billions and make those choices for themselves?
Mr Gore, speaking at an event in which he previewed a sequel to his landmark 2006 documentary, An Inconvenient Truth, said the “principal” cause of the Syrian Civil War had been the worst drought in 900 years, which forced 1.5 million people to move from the countryside to the cities. There they met a similar number of Iraqis who had fled the conflict in their homeland, creating powder keg conditions that Syrian government officials privately feared would explode.
Let’s not forget that for the last thousand years when the weather was preindustrially perfect, the French, Germans and Spanish got along super well with the Brits. It’s not like there was ten centuries of warfare until the climate warmed and peace ripped across the land. (Climate change also causes peace in Europe. How bad can it get?).
Gore’s evidence amounts to saying that there was a bad drought in this multivariate intercontinental geopolitical mess, plus Wikileaks shows someone in Syria saying “there is going to be a social explosion” just before there was one. Well, that does it for me…
/sarc /sarc /sarc2
9.5 out of 10 based on 93 ratings
Last days before Hazelwood shuts down.
Robert Gottleibsen in The Australian a couple of days ago has investigated our energy crisis, and discovered our old centralized grid design is quite likely to fall over next summer in an incredibly expensive way. It’s nice that he did some research and even talked to engineers:
The looming crisis is much worse than I expected. Three state governments, Victoria NSW and South Australia, have vandalised our total energy system. The Premiers of each state clearly had no idea what they were doing and did not sit down with top engineers outside the government advisers to work out the best way to achieve their objectives — whether that be an increase in renewables or gas restrictions.
He warns that it is potentially criminal:
I have been alerted that in the 1995 Federal Criminal Code under Section 137.1 in Chapter 7 there is a section entitled ‘Good administration of government’.
Me? I remain a cynic (not that I’m a lawyer). The legislation has been there since 1995, threatens 12 months in prison for “misleading information”. It can’t be this simple.
Still it would be good if politicians were scared into doing the right thing (keep Hazelwood running, explore for gas, talk about nuclear):
I can’t prejudge the courts but there appears to be no statute of limitation in the legislation so every statement made by any politician may be available to be examined by the courts to see if it is false or misleading. If we get damaging blackouts or gas shortages then my guess is that any politicians and advisors who are charged will face the next five to 10 years defending themselves in the courts. The government of the day will decide whether they should have legal aid.
This legislation is about promoting public service and political honesty. If Hazelwood is closed the Victorian government needs to tell the people that there is a good chance of blackouts but, (if it’s true), say that they are bringing in the best experts from around the world to lessen the chance. Maybe the Commonwealth should bring in the experts but they too must tell the people the truth.
Keep reading →
9.2 out of 10 based on 113 ratings
The 12th International Conference on Climate Change (ICCC-12) will take place on Thursday and Friday, March 23–24 at the Grand Hyatt Hotel in Washington, DC, thanks to the Heartland Institute. Watch and hear the scientists, economists, engineers, and policy experts who persuaded President Donald Trump that man-made global warming is not a crisis, and therefore Barack Obama’s war on fossil fuels must be ended.
WATCH LIVE STARTING AT 8:00 AM (ET) ON THURSDAY, MARCH 23
More information below…
Keep reading →
8.4 out of 10 based on 24 ratings
Three days to go: The Hazelwood shut down begins
The situation in Australia right now:
 The total fossil fuel output compared to total wind power generation, NEM, Australian electricity market, 21 March 2017
One old coal plant makes more electricity than all the wind farms
Guest Post by TonyfromOZ and Jo Nova
I’ve been watching the output of all eight generators at Hazelwood closely all month and comparing it to the total wind farm generation across the National Electricity Market (NEM). The old warhorse is a remarkable engineering and economic success.
I’ve kept a total of the power output each day from midnight to midnight and a running cumulative total. So far, the running total output from Hazelwood has always stayed ahead of the total from wind farms. So this 53 year old coal fired plant that is being shut down next week has produced more energy than the 43 wind plants on the National Energy Market. Even if we could store the energy from the wind farms, it still doesn’t add up to the same as one very ancient coal plant. The shut down starts in three days time on Friday March 24th.
Over the first 18 days of this month the old coal workhorse still made 7% more power than all the windfarms in the National Energy Market (which is everywhere bar WA and the NT). Hazelwood has delivered 561GWH over these 18 days and wind, 521GWH. The extra 40GWH of energy means an extra 2,211,111KWH per day, and if the average home consumes 17.5KW per day, then that means the extra delivered by Hazelwood is enough to supply 126,350 homes, and for the full 24 hours of those 18 days.
In the Australian NEM grid, there are 43 wind plants, and around 2400 turbines on poles, and for 14 years they’ve been building them. Despite that, they’re still not delivering enough power to replace a 53 year old tired worn out coal fired plant that can still manage to get all its generators working. See my post for all the details as I track the closure of this large piece of infrastructure: Hazelwood Power Plant Closing 31st March – Currently Delivering More Power Than Every Wind Plant In Australia.
Renewables can’t even keep a small state running
South Australia only consumes 6% of Australia’s total power consumption, the second lowest in Australia, only marginally higher than Tasmania’s 4.5%. If they cannot make renewables work on such a tiny scale, what does that say for Victoria, Queensland and NSW, and Australia as a whole? The wind industry began around the year 2000 in Australia. So, here we are, now 17 years later, and they still don’t generate enough power to replace one ancient power plant slated for closure. You tell me how good wind power is now.
I’ve been watching the output of the old coal generators closely. Here’s a typical example — at 3:20PM today.
In NSW:
Bayswater – all four units running – 2494MW – 30 years old
Liddell – three of four units running – 750MW – 46 years old
Eraring – all four units running – 2340MW – 35 years old
Vales Point – both units running – 11130MW – 40 years old
In Victoria:
Loy Yang – five of six units running – 2580MW – 32 years old
Yallourn – two of two units running – 680MW – 44 years old
Wind energy output
Total in the NEM in Australia varied from 200MW up to 2000MW this month. (Total nameplate capacity: 3900MW)
Most of the wind farms operate on a 30% capacity factor, even though they are a lot newer. Hazelwood is 53 years old, and is not generating its original Nameplate of 1600MW, but it can still make 86% of that total, which is pretty astonishing after 53 years. One of the oldest wind farms runs on just a 16% capacity factor. Challicum Hills in Victoria opened in 2003 with 35 turbines and a Nameplate of 52.5MW. Even on the best of windy days, the maximum power generation is only 40MW, so that’s 10.5MW short of the maximum, or 7 turbines possibly not even working at all.
When Hazelwood was new it ran at around a 90% Capacity Factor, and even now, after 53 years that has only dropped to around 60%, so effectively over its whole life it has managed (typical for large scale coal fired power) a capacity factor of around 70% lifetime. So, after 53 years, Hazelwood has generated 520.4 TWH of power, and I only expressed it that way because in MWH it’s a very long number: 520,349,760MWH
It has been delivering that power for around $30/MWH give or take, that’s 3c per KWhr and those prices are in today’s dollars.
So, from the sale of electricity alone, that comes in at $15.6 billion worth of electricity which is around $295 Million a year.
Here’s a graph comparing wind power across the entire NEM with the 1360MW provided by Hazelwood alone. Most of the time Hazelwood is outdoing all 43 wind farms. Only during peaks (yellow) does production climb above the total of this old power station.
 Wind farm outout, March 2017, graph, National Electricity Market, NEM, Australia.
This is what old coal reliability looks like:
 The output of the eight generating turbines at Hazelwood today March 21, 2017.
Are the engineers at Hazelwood defiantly showing off?
There appears to be some defiance going on from the people who work there, wanting to thumb their noses at the people who clamor for its closure. They’ve fixed one turbine this month and brought it back to speed when they didn’t need too.
One of the Units (Unit 8) was taken off line eight days back now. As I have explained, there are a lot of processes in the chain of power generation, and any one of them could be at fault. However, if the plant is scheduled to close at the end of the month, then there’s no real need to fix the problem. Just concentrate on the other units. However, yesterday at around 8AM, Unit 8 started to come back on line. It took 4 hours to reach full power delivery, but now it’s just humming along, just like the other seven units.
Keep reading →
9.6 out of 10 based on 133 ratings
After years of struggle to conceive, plus tortured introspection about the effect her baby might have on future storms, Sophie Lewis, climate scientist, announces conception in the most convoluted way:
And then, just as senselessly as our grief began, it ended. For no particular reason, the expected bad baby news never arrived and now the complexity of having an imagined child will become a concrete ethical entanglement.
Exactly. And many a climate model operates with all the same clarity and insight.
But sincere congratulations to Sophie Lewis. We hope her good news brings her years of joy.
We also pray she escapes the climate bubble soon. Because by golly, she’s in deep.
Lewis reveals the paroxysms of irreconcilable guilt — where the evolutionary drive conflicts with the climate religion:
Older climate scientists speak widely about their worries for their grandchildren and the world they have provided them. While such concerns must weigh on older minds, younger climate scientists’ future concerns require active deliberation. Should we have children? And if we do, how do we raise them in a world of change and inequity? Can I reconcile my care and concern for the future with such an active and deliberate pursuit of a child?
Put simply, I can’t. Nowadays, the pitter-patter of tiny feet is inevitably the pitter-patter of giant carbon footprints. Reusable nappies, a bike trailer and secondhand jumpsuits might make me feel like I’m taking individual action but they will achieve little. A child born today is inevitably a consumer and, most significantly, is a consumer of greenhouse gases.
Warning. Pure climate-princess material coming — The climate battle is like World War II:
Living in and starting a family in volatile and uncertain times are not unique experiences. My grandmother fled Europe in the early 1950s for a better life in Australia. A German Jew, her family had been scattered, with herself interned in Britain, her sister lost in Auschwitz and her family’s desperate flight rebuffed by an indifferent world. Years of horror, combined with strict rations and economic uncertainty drove her to strike out bravely for a new life in Australia with her young babies.
But there was icing on the cake of the abject horror then — No such luck now:
Climate change is a critically different problem. In my grandmother’s time of abject horror, good people were empowered – to varying degrees – to do good. After the war ended, the actions of just a few were recognised as having salvaged the honour of all our humanity. Nowadays, the very act of living in Australia, regardless of concern for our climate future, is detrimental.
Now there are no heroes, just climate prophets (who can’t seem to predict anything useful) and whose bodily existence, like everyone else, including babies “is detrimental”
Indeed, to paraphase her baby announcement:
And then, just as senselessly as our grief began, it ended. For no particular reason, the expected bad climate news never arrived and now the complexity of having an imagined climate has become a concrete ethical entanglement.
Those warmists who fear that a child,
Could leave our green planet defiled,
Or that one baby primate,
Could change Earth’s whole climate,
Are by climate-change hot air beguiled.
–Ruairi
9.3 out of 10 based on 91 ratings
…
7.8 out of 10 based on 29 ratings
Once upon a time governments bragged about how much they spent on “climate change”. Every Climate Quiz or tin-pot-program to insulate a chicken-run was wrapped under the Climate Action banner so that politicians could claim they were saving the world. Nowadays voters have voted for the guy who called it a hoax, and the funding’s gone underground because he was going to boast about how much climate funding he’d cut.
When I wrote Climate Money in 2009, a lot of the spending was already documented, under the Climate Change Science Program or by the GAO. How times have changed.
To Protect Climate Money, Obama Stashed It Where It’s Hard to Find
President Donald Trump will find the job of reining in spending on climate initiatives made harder by an Obama-era policy of dispersing billions of dollars in programs across dozens of agencies — in part so they couldn’t easily be cut.
Climate change is so important that no one even estimates what the government spends on it:
The last time the Congressional Research Service estimated total federal spending on climate was in 2013. It concluded 18 agencies had climate-related activities, and calculated $77 billion in spending from fiscal 2008 through 2013 alone. But that figure could well be too low. The Obama administration didn’t always include “climate” in program names, said Alice Hill, director for resilience policy on Obama’s National Security Council.
What was $79 billion in climate funding from 1989-2009 doubled in the next 5 years. The US government has spent far more than $150 billion.
“The Trump Administration needs to defund the entire apparatus of the climate change federal funding gravy train,” said Marc Morano, a former Republican staffer for the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee. “In order to dismantle the climate establishment, agencies and programs throughout the federal government need to be targeted.”
“The climate funding has spread to almost every aspect of the federal government with sometimes wacky results,” said Morano, who doubts global warming and runs the website climatedepot.com. He cited one example of a Department of Transportation query about the link between climate change and fatal car crashes.
Marc is right.
h/t Climatedepot
9.4 out of 10 based on 93 ratings
Turnbull announces beefing up the Snowy Mountains Hydro. Weatherill gets grumpy. Insults exchanged.
Things are so serious that suddenly the Feds are unveiling a new solution to fix the blackouts and “load shedding”. http://a.msn.com/01/en-au/BBybbQL?ocid=se
As Bob FJ writes: see Canberra Times and note the eye-contact avoidance etcetera twixt Weatherill and Frydenberg.
h/t To Bob FJ
9.3 out of 10 based on 49 ratings
 The Milgram Experiment. Image Wikimedia.
The chilling Milgram experiments have been replicated, and yet again, 9 out of 10 are willing to inflict electric shocks and pain on another person. In these infamous experiments the power of a white lab coat was enough to get more than half the participants (26 out of 40) to deliver a fatal shock (the participants didn’t realize the shock was faked, and the victim an actor).
This willingness to obey authority is both a great strength of humanity when authority is worthy and yet leads to the darkest abyss when it is not.
By nature, we are largely empathetic creatures: most people really don’t want to cause pain, they get quite upset themselves in the process. Yet many people will override this inbuilt ethical wiring if a person in a position of authority insist they do. It’s time we talked about ways to train people to resist. There is hope as outlined below in a different study from last year.
Conducting the Milgram experiment in Poland, psychologists show people still obey
Press Release: The title is direct, “Would you deliver an electric shock in 2015?” and the answer, according to the results of this replication study, is yes. Social psychologists from SWPS University of Social Sciences and Humanities in Poland replicated a modern version of the Milgram experiment and found results similar to studies conducted 50 years earlier.The research appears in the journal Social Psychological and Personality Science.
“Our objective was to examine how high a level of obedience we would encounter among residents of Poland,” write the authors. “It should be emphasized that tests in the Milgram paradigm have never been conducted in Central Europe. The unique history of the countries in the region made the issue of obedience towards authority seem exceptionally interesting to us.”
For those unfamiliar with the Milgram experiment, it tested people’s willingness to deliverer electric shocks to another person when encouraged by an experimenter. While no shocks were actually delivered in any of the experiments, the participants believed them to be real. The Milgram experiments demonstrated that under certain conditions of pressure from authority, people are willing to carry out commands even when it may harm someone else.
“Upon learning about Milgram’s experiments, a vast majority of people claim that ‘I would never behave in such a manner,’ says Tomasz Grzyb, a social psychologist involved in the research. “Our study has, yet again, illustrated the tremendous power of the situation the subjects are confronted with and how easily they can agree to things which they find unpleasant.”
While ethical considerations prevented a full replication of the experiments, researchers created a similar set-up with lower “shock” levels to test the level of obedience of participants.
The researchers recruited 80 participants (40 men and 40 women), with an age range from 18 to 69, for the study. Participants had up to 10 buttons to press, each a higher “shock” level. The results show that the level of participants’ obedience towards instructions is similarly high to that of the original Milgram studies.
They found that 90% of the people were willing to go to the highest level in the experiment. In terms of differences between peoples willingness to deliver shock to a man versus a woman, “It is worth remarking,” write the authors, “that although the number of people refusing to carry out the commands of the experimenter was three times greater when the student [the person receiving the “shock”] was a woman, the small sample size does not allow us to draw strong conclusions.”
In terms of how society has changed, Grzyb notes, “half a century after Milgram’s original research into obedience to authority, a striking majority of subjects are still willing to electrocute a helpless individual.”
The good news from a study last year: Matthew Hollander listened to all the Millgram recordings again, and there were about 800 in the full set. He found that even among obedient people there were signs of resistance as the experiment got more painful. They had ways of slowing the experiment, tried to talk their way out of it, and talk to the victim too. The difference was that the disobedient people were more aggressive about slowing things down, they started to resist earlier, and had more options to resist. It would seem likely that if we train people better, a lot more people will stand up to authority.
“Before examining these recordings, I [Hollander] was imagining some really aggressive ways of stopping the experiment — trying to open the door where the ‘learner’ is locked in, yelling at the experimenter, trying to leave,” Hollander says. “What I found was there are many ways to try to stop the experiment, but they’re less aggressive.”
Most often, stop tries involved some variation on, “I can’t do this anymore,” or “I won’t do this anymore,” and were employed by 98 percent of the disobedient Milgram subjects studied by Hollander. That’s compared to fewer than 20 percent of the obedient subjects.
Interestingly, all six of the resistive actions were put to use by obedient and disobedient participants.
“What this shows is that even those who were ultimately compliant or obedient had practices for resisting the invocation of the experimenter’s authority,” says Douglas Maynard, a UW-Madison sociology professor who leads the Garfinkel Laboratory for Ethnomethodology and Conversation Analysis. “It wasn’t like they automatically caved in. They really worked to counter what was coming at them. It wasn’t a blind kind of obedience.”
If people could be trained to tap practices for resistance like those outlined in Hollander’s analysis, they may be better equipped to stand up to an illegal, unethical or inappropriate order from a superior. And not just in extreme situations, according to Maynard.
— See Infamous study of humanity’s ‘dark side’ may actually show how to keep it at bay
Though the numbers do still look depressing. There are critics of the Millgram experiments, who say that it was an artificial setting, unethical, and people wouldn’t react that way, but this second round of research has replicated at least some of those findings.
There is a kind of Millgram experiment going on in climate science. The experimenters keep pushing more ridiculous buttons…
References:
- Dariusz Doliński, Tomasz Grzyb, Michał Folwarczny, Patrycja Grzybała, Karolina Krzyszycha, Karolina Martynowska, Jakub Trojanowski. Would You Deliver an Electric Shock in 2015? Obedience in the Experimental Paradigm Developed by Stanley Milgram in the 50 Years Following the Original Studies. Social Psychological and Personality Science, 2017; 194855061769306 DOI: 10.1177/1948550617693060
- Matthew M. Hollander. The repertoire of resistance: Non-compliance with directives in Milgram’s ‘obedience’ experiments. British Journal of Social Psychology, 2015; DOI: 10.1111/bjso.12099
9.9 out of 10 based on 60 ratings
South Australia (SA) is planning to build a new gas fossil fuel plant for $550 million because it has too much competitive and “cost efficient” free energy. There are fears this will not only push up electricity prices in the state but in Victoria, NSW and Tasmania too. (Bravo, SA). In order to build a new fossil fuel plant with Greens permission they spend $360m on the new gas plant, and then offered $150m more to appease the angry renewables spirits. It is said to be needed to encourage investment. Obviously no sane investor would spend money on renewables for purely economic reasons.
Meanwhile Elon Musk offered to fix the states problems in just 100 days or “it’s free” and with only $33million for a 100MWh battery farm. The offer has triggered a bun fight between Musk and local companies who say they can do even better.
But in the long run, SA wants to go “100% renewable”. Below Paul Miskelly and Tom Quirk calculate that for SA to truly do that, it would need about 270GWh of batteries to cover the peak use. This would require 7.5 million tonnes of lead acid batteries and cost 60 – 90 billion dollars (and you thought an interconnector was expensive — SA could buy 60 – 90 interconnectors). For perspective the total state GDP is $97B (compared to AUS total of $1629). South Australian state govt revenue and expenses is about $16B so they can afford the batteries in 5 years if they cancel their own government.
If they were buying Power Walls from Tesla instead they would need 20 million of them. The retail cost is $180 billion. They also would have some 2000 wind turbines at 2.5 MW so 10,000 Power Walls per turbine.
— Jo h/t David B, Scott of the Pacific too.
_______________________________________________
South Australia – a Renewable State?
Paul Miskelly and Tom Quirk
With $90 billion spent on batteries and 4,000 MW of more wind farms, South Australia could be a totally renewable state, at least for electricity.
South Australia along with one or two other states has been described by Al Gore as the canary in the coal mine for climate change and renewable energy. This interesting comparison was rewarded by South Australia putting the canary in the dark as there was no coal. But it would be interesting to see what the electricity supply of South Australia might be like with zero CO2 emissions as is the fond wish of many and even of learned societies.
There are many combinations of renewables that could be considered with wind, solar, biomass, pumped storage and various storage technologies. The following is the simplest, combining wind farms and batteries.
The starting point for this analysis is the dominance of wind power in South Australia. To expand this renewable source we must add battery storage as there are no present alternatives. The present 1575 MW of wind farms meets some 35% of demand and expanding this to give an average 100% of supply, we must store the surplus and use that when the wind falls away. The performance of the present demand and wind farms supply is sampled from AEMO data for 3 January to 31 March 2016.
Keep reading →
9.4 out of 10 based on 78 ratings
Don’t mention the climate — unskeptical conservatives give away some of their best weapons
The local Liberals (conservatives) got smashed on the weekend in the Western Australian election. Polls predicted it, but instead of a Trump-surprise, Colin Barnett’s team got a nasty shock instead — wiped out. There was no “hidden vote” waiting there because the local Liberals are just another brand of The Establishment. There is nothing politically brave about them.
In WA climate was a non-issue, yet pandering to the religion still cost conservatives. One of the main election messages was about the privatisation of “Western Power” (Electricity supplier). This strange spectacle unfolded where McGowan, the leader who’d suggested the ridiculous 50% renewables target was thumping Barnett’s campaign with messages of fear about rising electricity prices after the privatization. Barnett didn’t hit back — No one seemed to notice the incongruity of Mr Renewables accusing someone else of making electricity expensive.
There are many reasons the WA Libs crashed (read some here). But the “climate” policy hole gets forgotten. Colin Barnett was unarmed, unskeptically accepting the unaudited foreign committee reports. In 2014, when semi-skeptical-Abbott was PM, the premier of a state that lives off mining and energy wasn’t even brave enough to go with the federal government of the day. Barnett publicly backed Obama’s climate plans instead.
Like Turnbull, Barnett missed the chance to roast the opposition for pandering to the climate faith, wasting money, making energy unaffordable, crippling industry etc etc etc.
Last year the WA Labor party waved the fantasy that this 13% renewables state could become a 50% Renewable Energy State. This should have been ripe fodder since it was South Australia on steroids: bigger and more risky. We’re a small isolated grid, not connected to the rest of Australia. There’s no hydro, no nukes, and no hope of another state keeping us running. We would be the blackout-state-in-waiting. But weeks ago, after yet another South Australian debacle unfolded — and leader of the Labor Party, Mark McGowan dropped the 50% target. Criticism was muted instead of savage.
Turnbull couldn’t unleash on his opponents in last years election, and neither could Barnett. Unskeptical politicians are just firing blanks.
Keep reading →
8.5 out of 10 based on 63 ratings
|
JoNova A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).

Jo appreciates your support to help her keep doing what she does. This blog is funded by donations. Thanks!


Follow Jo's Tweets
To report "lost" comments or defamatory and offensive remarks, email the moderators at: support.jonova AT proton.me
Statistics
The nerds have the numbers on precious metals investments on the ASX
|
Recent Comments