Just as the great bull run that could have no end, ended, another unthinkably big bubble quivers. Technical indicators are quietly being tripped that suggest the bull run in global temperatures may be toying with a reversal. Could another large human institution dependent on complex models be headed for it’s ‘Lehman Bros’ moment? […]
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April 12th, 2009 | Tags: Evans (David), Little Ice Age, Satire & Parody | Category: AGW socio-political, Global Warming, Monetary History |  Print This Post | | This is a Guest Post by Dr David Evans
The big temperature picture. Graph and insight from Dr Syun Akasofu (2009 International Conference on Climate Change, New York, March 2009). The global temperature has been rising at a steady trend rate of 0.5°C per century since the depths of the little ice age in the 1700s (when the Thames River would freeze over every winter; the last time it froze over was 1804). On top of the trend are oscillations that last about thirty years in each direction: 1882 – 1910 Cooling 1910 – 1944 Warming 1944 – 1975 Cooling 1975 – 2001 Warming In 2009 we are where the green arrow points, with temperature leveling off. The pattern suggests that the world has entered a period of slight cooling until about 2030. 8.7 out of 10 based on 19 ratings […] April 3rd, 2009 | Tags: Akasofu (Dr Syun), Evans (David), Evidence, Little Ice Age | Category: Global Warming | Print This Post | |
DeSmogBlog could’ve flattened The Skeptics Handbook in just one sentence. All they had to do was point to empirical evidence that more CO2 forces temperatures up. They can’t and everything else is bluster and bluff. The question of evidence is on the front page; the book is built around it, and billions of dollars hinges upon it, on this topic, “nothing else matters…”. Yet Jeremy Jacquot’s sole attempt at evidence only shows he doesn’t know what evidence is. Even a bright junior high spark could prove him wrong with a 20 year old encyclopedia. Jacquot uses 3000 words to NOT answer that question, he confuses himself, resorts to cut-n-pasting from the site that does his thinking for him, and makes at least 9 errors of logic and reason. Jacquot complains that I’ve rehashed and repeated old arguments, which only makes it all the more embarrassing that he still hasn’t got any good answers. But the part I like best was the way he jumps through the hoops just as I predicted. The Skeptics Handbook says when you poke a believer they will bark ‘Santer’, ‘Sherwood’, and ‘amplification’ and he does, right on cue. Yap Yap Yap. DeSmogBlog […] March 22nd, 2009 | Tags: Debunking The Skeptics Handbook, DeSmog Blog, JoNova's Favourites, The Skeptics Handbook, Venus | Category: Global Warming, Logic & Reason, The Skeptics Handbook | Print This Post | | Party Party Party! A donor in the US felt The Skeptics Handbook was so worthwhile that they have paid to print and post 150,000 copies of the booklet. Just soak in that number. A “bestseller” only has to notch up 5,000 copies… […] March 22nd, 2009 | Tags: JoNova's Favourites, The Skeptics Handbook | Category: Global Warming | Print This Post | | the email exchange between Sceptico and myself, that started off as a friendly enquiry by me, as to why a self-proclaimed ’skeptic’ thought that anyone raising scientific questions about global warming should be lumped in with creationists, and called a denier. I wondered if he was just innocently unaware that the science has changed. […] February 17th, 2009 | Tags: Argument by Authority, Debunking, Debunking The Skeptics Handbook, Skeptico, Unskeptical Skeptics | Category: Global Warming, Logic & Reason | Print This Post | | Supplement: Our Email exchange ……Ref: Skeptico on “Global Warming Denial” What’s the most embarrassing thing that could happen to a skeptic? Could it be worse than being exposed for believing anything and everything a government committee (the IPCC) tells them? “Science without debate is like business without competition and a trial without a defense. It’s a sham.” Unfortunately some of the loudest skeptics are the part-time ones. They busy themselves ‘catching out astrologers’, but then suspend all their usual rules of logic to defend the largest scientific scam in history. Ironically, at the same time as the scammers plot to suck billions from citizens, pretenders like Skeptico arm themselves to the teeth to, wait for it… fight for “authority”. (He actually does this—the unthinkable—he claims that argument by authority is legitimate in science. Holy-Cringeoli! Let’s bow to the bureaucrats.) Here Skeptico responds to my emails by publicly trying to justify his belief in the AGW theory. In response, he steadily exposes himself for having faith, trust, and poor reasoning skills, he proves to be a ‘denier’ (of the need for empirical evidence), a name caller, as well as patronizing, and totally unaware of his religious faith to boot. All that, […] February 13th, 2009 | Tags: Debunking, Logic & Reason, Skeptico, Skeptics (fake), Unskeptical Skeptics | Category: Global Warming, Logic & Reason | Print This Post | | Carbon credits are a form of fiat currency, yet as calls for carbon trading grow, ironically, another fiat currency collapses—destroying life savings, wiping out jobs, and taking down historic institutions overnight. […] February 4th, 2009 | Tags: Bankers, Carbon Credits, Economics, Emissions Trading Scheme, Fiat Currency, JoNova's Favourites, Monetary History, SPPI Original Paper | Category: Global Warming, Monetary History | Print This Post | | Scientists Now Say Global Warming Fears Fading Away – Claim Warming Consensus Never Existed. By Andrew Revko – New York Times Environmental Reporter […] February 1st, 2009 | Tags: Marc Morano, New York Times, Satire & Parody | Category: Global Warming | Print This Post | | This must be it, surely, the point where being a skeptic has more scientific cachet than being a believer. The trickle is becoming a flood. We are reaching the stage where independent scientists will want to make sure they are known to be on the skeptical side of the fence. […] January 28th, 2009 | Tags: Skeptics | Category: AGW socio-political, Global Warming | Print This Post | | Big names like Santer, Sherwood, and Schmidt admit that the models predict more warming 10 km above the equator than what the weather balloons could find. Each time they announce that they’ve resolved the differences, they have to start by admitting there are differences to resolve. […] January 3rd, 2009 | Tags: Hot Spot, JoNova's Favourites, Missing Hot Spot, Santer (Ben), Sherwood (Steven) | Category: Global Warming | Print This Post | | This is vintage spinmeister-Tim. Overall he claims I’m deluded, confused, constantly repeating discredited arguments, “doesn’t even know what the hot-spot is”, and “doesn’t understand how the greenhouses gases warm the planet”. But when it comes to backing up the giant patronizing put-downs, it amounts to nit-picking phraseology; irrelevant points; straw men; his own false understanding of what a fingerprint is; and then an own goal when he drops in a graph that shows that the hot-spot is indeed missing. […] January 3rd, 2009 | Tags: Coercion, Debunking, Debunking The Skeptics Handbook, Deltoid, Hot Spot, JoNova's Favourites, Lambert (Tim), Missing Hot Spot, The Skeptics Handbook | Category: Global Warming | Print This Post | | Leo Elshof from Arcadia University in Nova Scotia* has written to me asking that I put a comedy disclaimer on the Skeptics Handbook, and otherwise threatens to ridicule me at international conferences and set the media onto me. The email is here and my reply is below. What have our universities sunk too? See Leo’s scorecard on logic and reasoning. […] November 26th, 2008 | Tags: Coercion, JoNova's Favourites, Logic & Reason, The Skeptics Handbook | Category: Global Warming, Logic & Reason | Print This Post | | Science based ideas are falsifiable, whereas religious ones are not (thanks Karl Popper). The acid test for climate scientists: “What evidence would convince you that carbon was not significant?” […] October 30th, 2008 | Tags: Coercion, Evidence, Logic & Reason, Science | Category: AGW socio-political, Global Warming, Logic & Reason | Print This Post | | Evidence means observations, made by people at some time and place. Things you can see, hold, hear and record. Computer models are not, and can never be evidence. […] October 30th, 2008 | Tags: Evidence, Evidence (What is it?), Logic & Reason, Science | Category: Global Warming | Print This Post | | The gap between real world data and thermometers is a make-or-break issue for the AGW theory. The models predict a hot-spot in the atmosphere above the tropics, but the weather balloons (called radiosondes) can’t find any sign of it. Most claims that the hot-spot has been found are not providing any new data, they are just massaging the same old numbers with a different statistical tool. Here are three variations (though the third is not a statistical-spin, it’s just nonsense). 1–Some AGW supporters claim that Santer et al has found the hot-spot. But his paper boils downs to a statistical reanalysis that suggests that due to noise and error, the hot-spot might be there. Santer hasn’t actually found the missing hot spot. He has a case, but it’s not a strong one. The statistical counterargument is at Climate Audit. 5.5 out of 10 based on 10 ratings […] October 30th, 2008 | Tags: Evidence, Feedback, Hot Spot, JoNova's Favourites, Missing Hot Spot, Water Vapor | Category: Global Warming | Print This Post | | The ‘Hotspot’ is crucial to the climate debate. If greenhouses gases are warming the planet that warming will happen first in the cold blob of air 8-12 km above the tropics. It’s freezing cold up there, but it ought to be slightly less freezing cold thanks to greenhouse gases. All 20-odd climate models predict warming there first—it’s the fingerprint of greenhouse gas warming, as opposed to warming by some other cause, like solar magnetic effects, volcanic eruptions, solar irradiance, or ozone depletion etc etc.
Look at A above, the greenhouse gas fingerprint is markedly different from the rest and dominates the overall predicted pattern in graph F. The big problem for the believers of AGW is that years of radiosonde measurements can’t find any warming, as shown in part E of Figure 5.7 in section 5.5 on page 116 of the US CCSP 2006 report
8.7 out of 10 based on 40 ratings […] October 26th, 2008 | Tags: Evidence, Hot Spot, Missing Hot Spot, Santer (Ben), Sherwood (Steven) | Category: AGW socio-political, Global Warming | Print This Post | | Submission for Treasury Secretary, Ken Henry for Australia’s future tax system http://www.taxreview.treasury.gov.au/content/Content.aspx?doc=html/submissions.htm Regarding: the Emissions Trading Scheme, and any tax relating to carbon dioxide.
Before Australia commits to any tax the Australian people deserve to know that the taxation rules are based on the latest and best scientific evidence available. The evidence about climate change has changed dramatically since 2003. I was a committed believer that action was needed, but like many other scientists I have changed my mind. Please bear in mind that the theory of greenhouse gas emissions causing atmospheric warming is just that—a theory, and it has no empirical observable evidence to back it up.
The need for any carbon tax regime hinges on the question below:
10 out of 10 based on 3 ratings […] October 20th, 2008 | Tags: Emissions Trading Scheme | Category: Global Warming | Print This Post | | I want to lift the debate above the mud-slinging, pathetic ad hominem attacks, and specious argument by authority. The basic rules of logic and reasoning have been known since the Greeks. Educated adults ought to do better. Maybe one day, national curriculums will too. […] September 30th, 2008 | Tags: Evidence, The Skeptics Handbook | Category: Global Warming | Print This Post | | |
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