Wednesday

9.2 out of 10 based on 17 ratings

101 comments to Wednesday

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    The Madness of Frauds, Summer 2024 Edition

    Believe it or not, ‘the Experts™’ are baaaaaaack prognosticating hundreds of ‘heat deaths’–that is, if you wish to believe the modellers who so brilliantly ‘helped’ us during Covid

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      • #

        As they write, not a new phenomen
        😀 Dali knew about 😀

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        A small closed room, in sunshine, clock hand made of
        plastic material, no wonder at all it melts.

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        David Maddison

        Can we add “melting clock hands” to the long list of things claimed to be caused by “Climate Change(TM)”?

        Myself, I would put it down to poor design and/or materials selection.

        Anyone who has ever left their car in the sun would know how hot a small enclosed space in the sun can get as Krishna pointed out (that’s why you should never leave children or animals in a parked car, even for a short time, apart from other reasons). But warmists lack powers of observation or analysis, so immediately blame that poor, invisible, demonised, trace gas…

        Melted clock hands ===>>> “let’s destroy the economy”…

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          Broadie

          how hot a small enclosed space in the sun can get

          under a glass face

          Shall we bundle this under the common term ‘Greenhouse effect’ David? Placing a black object under glass is common in solar heating.

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        Ronin

        The hour hand is still in place and the minute hand has fallen because it got tangled in that black plastic strip.

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        Broadie

        WOT?

        Rubber water proof seal fell off due to the failure of the adhesive. Eh!

        or maybe it has a rechargeable back up lithium ion battery. Did anyone see smoke?

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        Bushkid

        Nonsense. The surrounding band has obviously softened, probably more likely the glue holding it though, and dropped onto the hands, pulling off the second hand and bending the hour hand.

        Blaming the poor/inadequate construction on supposed “global warming” is just blatant opportunistic lying.

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  • #
    MeAgain

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-09/electric-vehicles-can-feed-power-back-into-the-grid-emergency/104075562

    1. Dr Sturmberg said if the 100,000 electric vehicles sold in Australia last year could feed power back into the national grid when needed, they would provide about the same amount of power as used by NSW and the ACT. -my first question – for what length of time?

    2. Mr De Rango said it should be up to consumers to decide whether they participated in vehicle-to-grid schemes.

    “We don’t see a future where anyone is able to draw energy out of a consumer’s car without their consent. This level of consumer protection is actually baked in at a very basic level – because it’s the driver that decides if the car is plugged in or not,” he said. – I think you have to plug these things in quite regularly if you want to drive them – but happy for a boffin to correct me if I am wrong here – is it like perpetual energy now?

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      David Maddison

      And if your car is “donating” energy to the grid overnight, what happens when you go to drive to work (or wherever) the next morning?

      Its like filling your car up with petrol/gasoline one day, not using it, then going to drive it the next day and the tank is empty…

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      CO2 Lover

      for what length of time?

      A standard Tesla battery pack hold 54 kWh when full charged

      Therefore 100,000 Tesla if fully charged would power Australia for around 10 minutes and NSW for around 40 minutes

      Tesla recommends you charge to 80% or less for daily driving. 100% is fine for occasional use if you’re going on a long trip and need the extra range to reach your destination or the next supercharger.

      It is likely that at any time the average charge level for 100,000 Teslas would be around 50% so halve the numbers above at least.

      How many would be on the road vs connected to the grid to recharge?

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      • #
        Ted1.

        The idea is not wholly silly. There are a couple of issues that have not yet been given due consideration. It was foolish in my view to visualise cars in the future modelled on current patterns.

        Whatever the source of power, tare mass costs to cart it around. Batteries make a fair bit of tare mass, so minimising the size of the battery should reduce cost both in cost of the battery and the cartage.

        So there goes your 500 km range, and maybe your 5 star ANCAP rating. But for how many people would that be a disadvantage?

        If a battery was designed to be swapped in under a minute, which would not be difficult, a range of 100 km might be sufficient for a lot of applications.

        It would be the batteries that are in storage at the servos for charging that could be utilised to supply power back to the grid, not the ones in the cars.

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          KP

          Hmmm… how many batteries would be available per car? One in the car, one charged one waiting at the servo, one on charge? Could it get down to one in the car and one on charge overnight at the servo ready for the next day?

          Nope, because if the Govt drained that charging battery, you would still run out tomorrow, so you need three batteries per car, one that is not allowed to be discharged by Govt, and THAT has just added to the cost of ruinable transport by a big factor.

          I’m happy with say 150Km range per day, I’m happy sort-of with an electric car, but never would I let Govt control the amount of power in it.

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          Yarpos

          and of course these areas of battery accumulation, being handled, sored and charged will be subject to the ever oresent fire dangers of the current technology. It seems a scenario that is just asking for a fire. I wondwer what the insurance industry will make of it?

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      I’m sure John Cadogan went into this somewhere, recently, but I cant find it. He did mention MG does it at the moment, but there was something about it will only handle one connection out, so you cant do a lot from it, and there are problems running a house, generally.

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  • #

    As a vegetarian this won’t affect me but KFC Canada is going halal with its chicken and removing bacon so as to be inclusive and appeal to Muslim customers

    https://tnc.news/2024/07/08/ontario-kfcs-ban-pork-inclusive-menu/

    I understand that many schools find it easier to just order halal meat. I don ‘t like the method of slaughter nor the idea that a religious phrase is made upon slaughter.

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      Honk R Smith

      Has anyone tried a religious process or phrase to sanctify solar panels and wind mills?
      Maybe that’s why they’re not working as promised.

      Not to mention, Canada is gonna need Divine intervention.

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        Ronin

        I think I’ve heard a few when the owner had a look on the roof after a big hailstorm.

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        PADRE

        Last summer in England we attended a Sunday morning Eucharist in a village in NW England. I really wondered whether we were worshipping God or Gaia. No wonder the Church of England is going down the gurgler.

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          PADRE

          The following week the service, an ad hoc Morning Prayer, was held in the local pub to save heating the church building in winter although it was summer at the time. Things only improved and returned to normal when the bar opened.

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      David Maddison

      It’s about power and control. You don’t see other minority groups with dietary restrictions such as vegans, vegetarians, Jews, Seventh Day Adventists, Hindus, Jains and Buddhists demand that restaurant chains conform to their dietary requirements.

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      Ted1.

      I think all the major meatworks in Australia use halal slaughtering, because many of our export clients require it and it is easier than keeping the carcases separate after slaughter for export.

      The cost is employment of another qualified man on the chain. It doesn’t hurt the meat. I think if you studied it you would find that a fair bit of it covers health issues in primitive (pre refrigeration) economies.

      Even today countries with all their wars have refrigeration but no 24/7 electricity to drive it. That is why they prefer live sheep.

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      KP

      “KFC Canada…. removing bacon ”

      How long will it last? As long as the fake meat burgers before they realise people want bacon, or long enough for a Bud Light moment on the share-market?

      Instant ad change from MacDonalds.. “Now with extra bacon!”

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      Yarpos

      Mmmmm removing bacon, always a winning move for fast food places. I’m sure all the long established customers will be fine with that.

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  • #
    David Maddison

    Thought for the day.

    Gravity is not a force. It is a property of spacetime according to Einstein.

    For most practical purposes however, and in accordance with Newtonian mechanics, it is commonly considered a force.

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    David Maddison

    Difference between Addans Family and Munsters.

    The Munsters are mainly monsters, but they try to act like a normal family. The Addams Family are mostly human, with a few monsters, but they act more Ghoulish. The Munsters are working class, while the Addams family are wealthier (stock market, they have a Butler…etc.)

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      David Maddison

      From the link:

      If you deduct the luxury hotel ($900) from the total tab, it leaves $9,000 – which really can only mean one thing: private jet.

      I am not surprised in the least.

      I would only surprised if a “climate change” activist actually attempted to conserve energy or taxpayer money.

      Flying by private jet is to be expected from these people.

      It’s also routine for them to fly to Klimate Krisis Konferences in private jets.

      Nothing to see there…

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      Ronin

      Maybe her brief is to ensure climate change happens, that makes sense.

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      Yarpos

      Jeez I would have struggle to do half that at the height of my corporate travel, and I guess I would have been regarded as part of “the problem” . This persom is supposed to be part of the solution. Im sure the frequent flyer points went to carbon offsets though.

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    David Maddison

    Interesting story from the US explaining why some US commercial pilots now no longer announce altitude. Sad. I would personally like to know just out or interest. This is from Quora Digest.

    I stopped doing so during my PA’s after a friend of mine, who routinely announced the altitude, was called before the Chief Pilot. It seems a passenger in the back had just enough knowledge to be dangerous. And when this passenger heard the altitude they were flying at, he KNEW it was the wrong altitude for their westbound heading. So he called up the company and complained about this pilot flying recklessly. In front of the Chief Pilot, my friend explained he had been assigned the particular altitude by Air Traffic Control, who had a military operation going on, using up the normal altitudes.

    After that, I began to chat about the route of flight, forecast destination weather, and those big circular shapes on the ground (crop circles with pivot irrigation – NOT alien landing sites).

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      Ronin

      All the SLF need to know is the time of landing, weather at destination and that all the wheels came up when the gear was raised.

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      John Connor II

      They no longer announce the altitude on Boeings as it scares the passengers too much when they know how far they’re about to drop. 😆

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    environment sceptic

    More on iGG4.

    I am not going to spend a long time editing this as my main intent is to just put it out there ***ASAP***. The letter is a brief description of Professor Tindle’s recent paper covering some main points in the link below from on the Australian Journal of General Practice.

    Here is an excerp from Royal Australian College of General Practitioners (RACGP) is Australia’s largest professional general practice organisation.

    https://www1.racgp.org.au/ajgp/2024/july/letters

    The possibility that long COVID could be related to the vaccines is important, but the focus here is on the notion that the vaccines could cause some sort of immunosuppression, especially, as noted by Professor Tindle, since the spike protein ‘exhibits pathogenic characteristics’ – to say nothing of the ‘class switch to IgG4 antibodies’, which Professor Tindle thinks could lead to autoimmunity and cancer. I have speculated as much, noticing many data sets indicating that not only does COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness appear to decline very rapidly (varyingly for infections, hospitalisations and even deaths), it can reach zero (no effectiveness), and beyond (negative effectiveness).

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  • #
    Tonyb

    Is Michelle Obama going to run for President?

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13613649/michelle-obama-president-biden-insiders-barack.html

    Polls show she would easily win. All other democrat candidates would lose to Trump

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    • #
      Steve of Cornubia

      I wonder what it is that allegedly makes so many people want to vote for her, despite never even having been a lower-level politician? What evidence is there that she has the knowledge, skills and experience required? Is there something I’m missing?

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      • #
        Skepticynic

        Is there something I’m missing?

        Only a great big elephant in the room.
        Of what possible relevance is knowledge, skills and experience in this modern day and age of ubiquitous ignorant naivety and AI enhanced media saturated public opinion manufacturing?
        With Michaelle LaVaughn Robinson/Obama, all boxes are ticked so she’s bound to win. Black? tick. Woman? tick. Trans? tick. Tall? tick. Big smile, lots of extra white teeth. No record of ever having said anything meaningful or controversial. Big wife of black Jesus. Jesus, how can anyone beat those credentials?

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        KP

        How do you think Ronald Reagan got to be President? Clint Eastwood, Arnie..? Any celebrity wins in politics immediately!

        Harry Potter could easily be PM of England, politicians win on public saturation, not intelligence or morals or ideas or…

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        Ted1.

        In 2008 I expected her to be a major player on the scene. She didn’t materialise.

        There is a very different scene in 2024. Her kids are 16 years older.

        She might be well qualified for the job.

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      I doubt that she would run or even have a chance of winning. The Obama Crime Day is now over along with the Biden Crime Family. Next.

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      Hanrahan

      It will be at the last moment, less time for her past to be presented, such as her glowing endorsement of Hervey Weinstein when receiving a $5 mil[?] cheque.

      It did buy him immunity, just not for too long.

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      el+gordo

      The story is a beatup, the lady has no ambition for the job.

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    another ian

    FWIW

    “The Political Suicide of Pushing “Climate Homicide” … & muscling in on someone else’s “ExxonKnew” lawsuits territory?”

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2024/07/08/the-political-suicide-of-pushing-climate-homicide-muscling-in-on-someone-elses-exxonknew-lawsuits-territory/

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    YYY Guy

    In today’ example of “all men are bad” on the ABC we have a beta male from the Aust Institute of Criminology. Rigorous criteria –

    This study examines the rate of sexual violence perpetration in a community sample of adult Australians. Data were collected through a survey of a proportional quota-based sample of 5,076 Australian residents aged 18–45 years.

    Just over one in five respondents (22.1%, n=1,124) had perpetrated one or more of the forms of sexual violence examined since turning 18 years of age, and one in 10 (9.9%, n=504) had done so in the past 12 months. Men were significantly more likely than women to have perpetrated any and each form of sexual violence examined, and to have perpetrated multiple forms of sexual violence.

    So many people!!! Let’s have a look at the definitions –
    Sexual violence can take many forms, including:

    Sexual assault: any sexual act or behavior that occurs without the consent of the victim, including rape, sexual battery, and sexual harassment.
    Rape: the act of forcing someone to engage in sexual activity without their consent.
    Sexual abuse: any sexual behavior that is unwanted or non-consensual, including touching, fondling, or other forms of sexual contact.
    Sexual harassment: unwelcome or inappropriate sexual behavior, such as catcalls, leering, or inappropriate comments.

    Yep, let’s include the last one to get the numbers up.
    Perps seem to be lawyers, gays, Antarctic workers, uni students, retail workers, those in parliament et al but they managed to bury the complaints within the ABC.
    Missing is all the usual suspects. Great work, Dr Chris.

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      Yarpos

      I was thinking about this the other day. You know in all my long life I have never come across a bloke that treats women badly in this sense. I have known people that might be insensitive, thoughtless and occasionally act like a d**khead (me included) but I havent come across someone in my social group who didnt look after the woman in his life as best he could.

      I am (we are) a bit selective in regard to who we hang out with. So that may explain my views to some extent, but not my younger years.

      I guess as a final point, for every homicide with a female victim, there are two with a male victim. They dont seem to get much airtime.

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    John Connor II

    How deep a hole can we dig ourselves. Let me count the ways.

    BREAKING: New French government calls for a new 90% tax on any annual income above €400,000.

    https://x.com/CarlBMenger/status/1810694268283138248

    Of course we all know that the wealthy have been leaving froggy land for years now, most going to the UK (a slight mistake) and a lot simply walking away from their properties as they can’t sell them.

    The wealthy are not the cause of your problems, you are!
    They’re not scapegoats or cash cows for the clueless.

    What do you call a basement full of liberals?
    A whine cellar!

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      Broadie

      Now that is ‘shooting yourself in the foot’. Their big supporters are the bureaucratic elites and the wealthy trust fund babies. I believe they are already maxxed out on fringe benefits and tax deductions so they are going to take the hit with this tax. It will not be your farmers or small businesses who are affected.

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      OldOzzie

      Le grand escape! Panicking French elite bombard wealth managers with enquiries about moving to Italy and Switzerland amid growing fury over victorious hard-left’s plans for 90% tax on rich and huge spending increases

      New Popular Front alliance proposed a major tax-and-spend economic policy

      The hard-left alliance plans a huge spending spree that would deliver a major boost to minimum wage and public sector pay, reduce the pension age from 64 to 60 and freeze prices of essential goods – measures it claims will cost some €150 billion over three years.

      But Macron’s camp warned it could cost as much as €300 billion and will entail the scrapping of tax breaks and credits for companies as well as soaring income tax.

      Ministers have also warned against such a spending spree given that France is already grappling with a budget deficit of 5.5% of GDP.

      ‘People are worried about a wealth tax, the end of the flat tax and potential higher taxation on salaries, as well as an overall atmosphere that is not pro-business,’ said Vincent Lazimi, a partner at law firm Jeantet in Paris, in comments leading up the the snap election.

      Gregory Soudjoukdjian, a Parisian wealth adviser, told the FT following Macron’s election call: ‘I’m not sure I’ve had this many calls since the start of my career… our high-end clientele are asking themselves a lot of questions.

      ‘The question we get asked most frequently is if money is safe in France,’ he added.

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  • #
    Richard C in NZ

    Meme

    Printer – “If you want 50 million ballots printed in time, I’ve gotta have a name”

    Obama – “Yeah, I just need another day or two”

    https://images.americanthinker.com/tg/tga5wpe8rsqcabhofihc_800.jpg

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    John Connor II

    Wednesday funny

    The economy is so bad that:
    I received a pre-declined credit card in the mail.
    CEO’s are now playing miniature golf.
    Exxon-Mobil laid off 25 Congressmen.
    Angelina Jolie adopted a child from America.
    A picture is now only worth 200 words.
    They renamed Wall Street “Wal-Mart Street”.
    Finally, I called the Suicide Hotline. I got a call center in Pakistan and when I told them I was suicidal, they got all excited, and asked if I could drive a truck!

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    Steve of Cornubia

    Reading an article in the UK’s Daily Telegraph just now, I noticed that the International Energy Agency recently predicted that 2019 would be “peak gasoline”. Since then, consumption has in fact increased, in 2023 and likely to be even higher in 2024.

    Which got me wondering, “Where have all the clever people gone?”

    Once upon a time, not that long ago, really smart people headed all the big corporations, filled presidents’ and prime ministers’ chairs, ran the international agencies and all the NGOs, of course with the odd exception. Nowadays though, I see more and more of our erstwhile successful and respectable institutions making enormous mistakes, whether it is employing a trans caricature of women to sell beer, prime ministers calling elections that they subsequently lose in a huge way, central banks failing miserably to control inflation (or even predict its path) and the IEA being wrong about the one thing they’re supposed to be good at.

    What’s going on? Is mankind regressing intellectually? Has society changed in some way that promotes incompetence? Does politics rather than talent now dictate ALL appointments?

    And why are we letting this happen?

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      Simple. International Agencies of any kind are just a load of Apes. With NFI.

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      KP

      ” Is mankind regressing intellectually? ”
      Yes, studies show the decreasing IQ with each generation

      “Has society changed in some way that promotes incompetence?”
      Yes, Capitalism, which rewarded the most competent in business, has been replaced by Socialism, which rewards the most noisy.

      “Does politics rather than talent now dictate ALL appointments?” Yes, why try to make money as a Capitalist when the Govt will hand you money as a Socialist.

      “And why are we letting this happen?”
      See answer to Question one…

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    Richard C in NZ

    Record temperature streak continues in June – WMO

    https://wmo.int/media/news/record-temperature-streak-continues-june

    Monthly global surface temperature increase above pre-industrial – C3S/ECMWF [ERA5]
    https://wmo.int/sites/default/files/styles/prose_1x/public/2024-07/timeseries_era5_monthly_2t_global_anomalies_preindustrial_up_to_june_2024.png?itok=BoOapZ-P

    All they have done is traced some aberrant natural variation that has nothing to do with CO2 and is now on the way back down.

    Undeterred, Carlo Buontempo goes gung-ho on human attribution Simon-style:

    “Even if this specific streak of extremes ends at some point, we are bound to see new records being broken as the climate continues to warm. This is inevitable, unless we stop adding greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and the oceans

    – Carlo Buontempo, Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service.

    It’s a mantra they recite ad infinitum.

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    CO2 Lover

    Fun Fact: Keir Starmer’s wife Victoria is Jewish!

    Labour has recognised Palestine! “From the River to the Sea”!

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    John Connor II

    Tin foil hat Wednesday: the future digital reality

    https://x.com/_/status/1810187152275226938

    Interesting theory though.

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    John Connor II

    “Safe and effective”: How it started vs. how it’s going.

    https://x.com/wideawake_media/status/1810669463005446605

    /Always repost worthy.

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    KP

    Ah- here’s the next escalation, Poland entering the war! They have been champing at the bit for over a year now, no doubt expecting to get the Western Ukraine when the country ceased to exist.

    Zelensky & Tusk have signed a security agreement where Poland will shoot down missiles over Western Ukraine, donate more F16s and have them based in Poland, and train foreign troops in Poland for the war in Ukraine. Basically try to build a shield over the Western side against missiles and aircraft.

    “This unprecedented document includes a provision for shooting down Russian missiles and drones in Ukraine’s airspace that are fired in the direction of Poland.. We will also cooperate on combat aircraft—both those already transferred by Poland and the possibility of transferring more in the future.

    ..we have formalized the formation and training of the Ukrainian Legion, a new volunteer military unit, on Polish territory. This unit will be trained in Poland and equipped by our partners.”

    So, can Russia extend their missile warfare to bombing Polish airports and missile units? It that as legitimate as seizing overseas reserves of other countries held in your banks?

    https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1810290919888798092

    https://warnews247-gr.translate.goog/war-monitor/oukrania/sumfwnia-zelenski-tousk-h-polwnia-tha-katarriptei-rwsikous-puraulous-kai-drones-panw-apo-th-dutikh-oukrania-epibebaiwsh-war-news-24-7/?_x_tr_sl=el&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB

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      Dennis

      Ukraine requested ADF Taipan heavy lift helicopters now grounded and being dismantled for mostly being dumped and then there are the same manufacturer Tiger Attack Helicopters also grounded, new Blackhawk and Apache helicopters ordered during the Morrison Government term.

      There are also classic Hornet F/A-18 in storage, some I understand have been sold but many are left unused.

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      Dennis

      In a 17 May release, head of Boeing Defence Australia’s Sustainment Operations Amy List said: “As the original equipment manufacturer, our heritage companies built the Hornets and introduced them into service; then, for more than 23 years, we worked in partnership with the RAAF and local industry to upgrade, modify and maintain them.

      “We also performed all end-of-service-life disposal activities, including preparing 20 jets for sale to the Royal Canadian Air Force and the eight for the Australian heritage project.”

      As for the 44 remaining `Classic’ Hornets, their future looks bleak. Under US export rules, if they cannot be broken down for spares for authorised customers, they will need to be destroyed or – like a proportion of the RAAF’s former F-111 fleet – buried in landfill.

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        Graeme#4

        The eight put aside for heritage projects have all been installed at either RAAF bases or in aviation museums. One is just down the road from me.

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          Dennis

          I understand the RAAF classic Hornets F/A-18 are in excellent condition having been well maintained.

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            Graeme#4

            Looks quite impressive. Don’t always see it as it’s tucked behind a Tornado in a separate new wing. I call it “the Tom Cruise aircraft”, which of course it’s not the same, but the public are impressed.

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      Vladimir

      Please point exactly to the words of Zelensky & Tusk security agreement which say that a) Ukraine will cease to exist and b) Poland will get western Ukraine.

      To support Russian cannibal V. Putin on the day of his bombing of childrens’ hospital is sick.

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        MP

        Spot of luck for Zelensky, day before the NATO meeting where he was with his brown paper bags begging for more white Christian males to throw at his hobby.
        He is a dual passport holder, his loyalty is not to Ukraine. Do we still call it Ukraine as Zelensky named the country big Israel.
        Maybe Zelensky got a missile from Israel, theirs are tuned to children.

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        CO2 Lover

        To support Russian cannibal V. Putin on the day of his bombing of childrens’ hospital is sick.

        Typical “False Flag” – the Ukrainian Nazis are now desperate that democracy will win in the Russian speaking part of the Ukraine that was given away by Lenin for a settlement in WW1.

        If Trump is allowed to win the Obama/Biden proxy war in the Ukraine will be over the next day.

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        Yarpos

        There is considerable evidence that the childrens hospital was hit by a Norway supplied air defense missile that didnt hit its intended target. Only of course if you step out of the agitprop you want to hear.

        Amazing isnt it that after 2 years of opportunity that this would allegedly be a thing now. A cynic might think a key NATO meeting was coming up next week.

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          Hanrahan

          SAMs, by definition, have small warheads, they are expected to reach high speeds quickly to track a high speed jet. They rely on being close to a fragile piece of aluminium to do damage. Razing a building sounds a bit far fetched.

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        KP

        “To support Russian cannibal V. Putin on the day of his bombing of childrens’ hospital is sick.”

        Why would he bomb a children’s hospital? Would it help him win the war? Was it accidental or a black-ops ploy by Zelensky with NATO’s meeting coming up later this week?
        I doubt that their missile ‘missed’ its target which was the Artemov factory 2Km away, but maybe it crashed from a SAM intercept.
        Do you remember the arguments over bombing a milk powder factory in Iraq? The Yanks said it was a munitions factory so they bombed it. People there (including Kiwis) said it produced milk powder. So here we have the same, while a children’s hospital was bombed we will probably never know why or how.

        Its a war, I disagree with war at any time, but if someone is going to win, yes I’d rather it was Putin than America, its as simple as that.

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    Richard C in NZ

    How to misuse a linear trend. By Copernicus Climate Change and Atmosphere Monitoring Services.
    ———————————————————————————————————
    Extreme heat waves broiling the planet in 2024 aren’t normal: How climate change is heating up weather around the world

    Mathew Barlow, Professor of Climate Science, UMass Lowell
    Jeffrey Basara, Professor of Meteorology, UMass Lowell

    Published by: The Conversation

    https://theconversation.com/extreme-heat-waves-broiling-the-planet-in-2024-arent-normal-how-climate-change-is-heating-up-weather-around-the-world-234249

    Scroll down to Copernicus graph:

    Global temperatures showing the trend line averaged over 30 years.
    https://images.theconversation.com/files/605575/original/file-20240708-19-sng1db.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=2

    This is an anomaly graph of ERA5 but the X axis is in terms of the “1.5 C limit”. The trend looks impressive here but not so much when absolute but that’s not the point. I also dispute their “limit” overlay on ERA5 but ‘nuther story.

    They project a linear trend through the 2000s “pause” like it’s not even there. Then through post 2015 natural variation.

    Finally out to May 2033 where, apparently, the dreaded 1.5 C limit resides. In the background are IPCC computer simulated “projections” as if to justify their rationale.

    Their assumptions are that a) the linear trend is representative of the data – it’s not, b) the linear trend is representative of physical phenomena – it’s not, c) the linear trend approximates, via models, a valid IPCC theory – it’s not.

    They have April 2024 coinciding with the 1.5 C limit at May 2033. Except the April anomaly from 1991-2020 baseline was +0.67, it is now +0.51 and falling, a -0.09 diff.

    ERA5 Anomaly
    https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu/

    Their linear trend crosses April X axis 1.5 – 1.28 = 0.22 diff.

    Already 0.09 of that 0.22 has been scrubbed off leaving 0.13 but the trend line has risen for 2 months so about 0.1.

    At the rate the anomaly is now falling it will be below their linear trend very soon. More data at the end of the series below the linear trend will invalidate their trend but only a little.

    Once all the natural variation has passed through the system the anomaly has nothing to hold it up above 2015 levels except theoretical GHG warming. 2015 is -0.5 below the 1.5 C limit on that graph so well clear of catastrophe.

    I think there’s going to be much egg-on-face in a few months time at Copernicus and everyone like Barlow, Basara, and The Conversation that subscribes to the Copernicus scenario above that is based on a simplistic linear trend.

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      Richard C in NZ

      I think I’ve got it wrong that Copernicus generated the graph and imposed the linear trend – that was Barlow and Basara.

      At the bottom of the graph in fuzzy print I see:

      “Generated using Copernicus Climate Change Service information 2024”

      That implies Barlow and Basara generated the graph and trend.

      So now I have to retract a portion of my bottom line:

      “…much egg-on-face in a few months time at Copernicus…”

      No, not them – Professors Barlow and Basara

      Also my title:

      How to misuse a linear trend. By Copernicus Climate Change and Atmosphere Monitoring Services.

      Should be:

      How to misuse a linear trend. By Professors Mathew Barlow and Jeffrey Basara

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      Richard C in NZ

      I’ve also got this wrong, sort of:

      They have April 2024 coinciding with the 1.5 C limit at May 2033

      No, they state: “Global Warming reached an estimated 1.28 C in April 2024”.

      Except on their graph, April coincides with 1.5 – not 1.28

      So doesn’t change my reasoning. Also sends a warning not to trust these Professors.

      They also state: “If the 30-year warming trend leading up to then continued”

      That’s a heroic assumption, and a false one in my opinion.

      There’s a lot going on in that graph, not the least being the subtle manipulation of gullible minds.

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        Skepticynic

        the subtle manipulation of gullible minds

        Seems like it’s almost everywhere these days. I can’t move without tripping over it. And it stinks. I see people going about their daily business, they’re drowning in it but they can’t even smell it.

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    Hanrahan

    I had that in my headphones while watering the back yard today.

    Lei seemed to be saying that even if not 100% legit much of it could have been.

    The two big takeaways: China is desperate for tax revenue and they are itching for war, both domestic and foreign.

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    another ian

    In the spirit of that “leaky bathrooms” post back a bit – USA

    “Don’t buy a house built in 2024”

    Salty warning

    https://bayourenaissanceman.blogspot.com/2024/07/dont-buy-house-built-in-2024.html

    There is an old saying that “paint hides a multitude of sins”

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    another ian

    Another point for the correlation –

    Seems like Nike is in strife –

    “Go Woke, Go Broke? Just Do It”

    https://hotair.com/tree-hugging-sister/2024/07/09/go-woke-go-broke-just-do-it-n3791598

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