JoNova
A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).
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Statistics
The Voice referendum looks as though it shall crash, but not burn. Our betters shall ensure all of the Ayers Rock Statement from the Blood Pump is put in place by hook or by crook. There shall be a treaty, there shall be reparations, there shall be “truth telling” (ie” lying about our colonial past), there shall be place-name changes for our nation and all cities/towns/districts, there shall be massive “heritage” red tape as in WA, but worse. Who is going to stop all this and how? Vote Coalition? Spoil your ballot paper? Nothing shall work.
343
The state premiers will write it into the state constitutions (Hat tip, Covid), the local councils will push it.
Remember, with the state constitutions, only the state government’s can make changes.
A parody of cats in the cradle, in honour of the greatest president in the history of the United States of America and his son.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/koWRAiuGtDIG/
“how? Vote Coalition? Spoil your ballot paper? Nothing shall work.”
One hope, One Nation.
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Pauline Hanson’s twitter feed is on fire. She’s fighting hard. Her persistence is impressive.
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Similar legislation now in Victoria and Federal Minister Plibersek has announced complimentary legislation planned by Albanese Labor.
And all before Voice+Treaty+Truth telling referendum.
90
Part of me wonders why we’re having a referendum anyway, given that leftist ‘progressive’ governments the world over are trampling democracy in a quite outrageous and dangerous manner every day. We had no referendum about destroying our reliable and cheap fossil fuel energy generation, no referendum about teaching small children about LGBT sex, no referendum about defunding police, no referendum about cancelling prominent conservative figures who failed to get with the program and no referendum about supplying Ukraine with cluster bombs.
So why did they bother asking us this time?
171
The only reason why this global warming scam has lasted so long is because of the millions of numb skulls that support it.
What will it take for those millions to understand and accept they have been duped?
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/08/green-hypocrisy-full-swing-16-million-trees-axed/
Copied from the Saturday thread
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VOTE YES π ππππππ
Alboβs gotta go.
(GOTCHA)
72
It would be wise to get a grip on the facts surrounding Heat Pump Water Heaters.
Yes, with a COP of approx 3, they are more efficient vs gas/electric water heaters under ideal conditions. BUT.
The space they are installed in must be 30 m^3 in volume.
The space temperature must be between 5C to 35C.
The water must not have high calcium levels or a water softener is required.
In winter, the 4.5 kW extracted from the space must be compensated by additional space heating.
Overall costs of a HPWH are some AUD 4K to 13K depending upon installation, operation, maintenance.
Tank life is no more than a traditional glass lined gas/elec water heater. Replacement HPWH = 4K AUD.
On balance, they are an expensive waste of effort.
211
Agreed. But heat pump hot water is being pushed very hard by the anti-energy and anti-civilisation lobbies.
1) They don’t really care if you have what they consider to be “luxuries” like hot water.
2) They don’t care that they are unaffordable for non-Elites.
3) There soon won’t be enough electricity for electric resistance water heating once they close down more power plants. There might be enough electricity for heat pump hot water.
4) They want to shut down gas and are already starting to do so in Sicktoria. Gas hot water soon won’t be an option.
5) They don’t care about the noise these things make.
6) They don’t care that they don’t work on cold days in various areas. I assume they have resistance heating backup at large expense.
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David,
In the case of Victoria, you’re forgetting that the Victorian electors voted for the government they got. It’s still a democracy. They can vote them out; and will do so when things get bad enough and an opposition becomes sufficiently organised to provide an alternative.
Ditto for the Federal government. The Australian people voted sufficient of the socialists into power and sufficient minor party socialist/green representatives into Parliament with whom the Labor socialists could enter into a power sharing arrangement. When things get bad enough the Australian voter will vote the incompetents out.
It’s not yet a dictatorship.
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How can Victorians vote the incumbents out when there’s no credible and viable alternative?
140
This is why there has steadfastly been institutionally enforced “Hobson’s Choice”. (NONE AT ALL)
What is REALLY need at ALL levels of the political process is a “box” on ALL ballot papers, labelled:
“NO SUITABLE CANDIDATE HAS BEEN PRESENTED”, i.e.; NONE OF THE ABOVE.
Until that time, the “system will inexorably become more corrupt and “totalitarian-friendly”.
A further refinement may be to call fresh elections in any seat in which the “informal” candidate garners more than , say fifteen percent.
And NEVER, ever, allow electronic voting; tabulation of verifiable hand-counts bet NEVER anything like the Dominion system; or is it too late?
151
β an opposition becomes sufficiently organised to provide an alternative β
And β pigs knitting socks will fly β
Long Live The Uniparty!
110
Trouble is, when politicians go before the electorate, they espouse what the polls tell them the voters want. Once in office, they do whatever they please.
60
Agree with your points.
My position is that the imposition of HPWH is dishonest in that it does not account for the overall energy and other implementation costs associated with installing a Heat Pump Water Heater.
Most homes cannot support all the requirements at any reasonable cost. Most people will never see a savings, but rather increased costs, and all that for no gain other than political fantasies.
Consumer choices and Market forces are abundantly more intelligent and efficient in the real world than the bravado of politicians who deny the economics of their fantasy solutions for a problem that isn’t relevant.
20
I am told that under the current heating codes you cannot have water heaters inside a house. Ideally you need some kind of system that dumps the cold air into your house in summer, and outside in winter.
20
Your point is well taken. The Heat Pump Water Heaters cool the space they occupy to provide hot water. That’s fine in summer, but in winter the owner must pay for an additional 4.5 kW to compensate for the energy transfer from an occupied space into the storage tank whenever the HPWH is active. In summer, all is well, but in winter the HPWH is a disadvantage.
There is no overall apparent advantage to using them. If you have “hard” water ( high calcium) the a water softener is required to prevent fouling of the heat transfer surfaces. That cost isn’t advertised as a real possibility.
The HPWH is a solution in search of a problem.
20
Leftists are always going on that various things or activities are “unsustainable”. It is a ridiculous argument. In a free market, nearly everything becomes available at a certain price point. If a certain thing becomes too expensive for most people, innovators/entrepreneurs come up with cheaper alternatives.
172
David, I also cringe at the ‘sustainable’ word.
One thing I think is that it speaks to the erroneous modern concept that science and the spiritual are incompatible.
We exist because the ‘sustained’ system created us, was utterly sustainable before we got here, and will sustain long after we are forgotten.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but the new much vaunted Webb Telescope, takes daily ‘pictures’ of sh!te that’s been sustained for a lot longer than we’ve been able to make fire.
And then they harangue us about ‘science’.
(Not to mention, that Webb’s new observations are humbling ‘settled Science’ … like from the get go.)
Sheesh.
I just consumed my morning coffee, thus feeling the urge to produce something ‘renewable’.
A demonstration of the true relationship between ‘renewable’ and ‘sustainable’.
For the record, I am not a bull.
60
This video confirms the globalists’ agenda of the WEC. This is very concerning for all of us. https://www.algora.com/Algora_blog/2023/08/05/nicole-schwab-get-used-to-permanent-climate-lockdowns
80
You mean WEF.
60
World Economic Collapse. Still works.
90
Net Zero Economic Activity.
40
Interesting, today I was reading a sub stack article authored by Robert Malone. He contended that the WEF was actually a creation of the CIA and Henry Kissinger.
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Any evidence Ross?
40
https://unlimitedhangout.com/2022/03/investigative-reports/dr-klaus-schwab-or-how-the-cfr-taught-me-to-stop-worrying-and-love-the-bomb/
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Nice pick up JC. I’m possibly now turning into a believer. So past first reports.
10
Thanks J C II.
Now to read it.
Cheers
Dave B
00
One of those 1st reports, which I have learnt not to believe until I hear further. His direct quote,
Link to CIA? Basically via the involvement of the American Intelligence Agency in affecting a world government. Maybe subscribe to RM at sub stack, then you can read the whole piece. Just email your address to [email protected].
10
Henry Kissinger’s first name was Heinz originally
01
Hmm …
‘Klaus and Henry’?
A new road movie ala Crosby and Hope?
Two fun guys embark on a trip around the globe creating hijinks and mayhem in their path?
A dark comedy?
(This joke is only accessible to those of us that were taught cursive handwriting.)
30
Well that mod seems strange.
So the Great Internet Machine is banning jokes?
00
In the renewables spirit of if something doesnt work, clearly you need more of it , comes the powered caravan with 80kWh battery to help overcome range anxiety.
Can be used with EV or ICE vehicles. The base model is a mere USD 125k. Get em while they are hot!
https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/first-ever-all-electric-ev-trailer-defeats-range-anxiety
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Twice the recharging time at least, and in Australia depending on location 70-80 per cent generated using fossil fuels or diesel fuelled generators.
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Just realized, get em while they are hot! may have been an unfortunate choice of words.
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Does it have a gas powered generator to charge it while driving along?
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Why the blue lips Tammy?
I was living a happy healthy life until in flew Enza!
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Professor Leaf take note, its Hunga Tonga-Hunga by a length.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/08/05/record-global-temperatures-driven-by-hunga-tonga-volcanic-water-vapor-visualized/
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You may have post Monday between 9 and 3:21 to be noted
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Its a positive feedback.
‘This stratospheric water vapor increase alone induces a positive climate feedback, which may cause about 10% of the simulated global mean surface temperature increase, contributing significantly to Arctic amplification, modifying atmospheric circulation, and even affecting the poleward expansion of the Hadley cells.’ (Charlesworth et al 2023)
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Australia will fall well short of 82 per cent renewable energy by 2030, analysts predict, as problems mount
Renewable energy advisory Nexa has joined global analyst Rystad Energy in finding Australia’s green energy share is likely to be barely 60 per cent by the end of the decade under the current rate of progress.
As part of ambitious plans unveiled last year, the federal government has set a renewable electricity target of 82 per cent by 2030.
Australia currently generates between 30 and 35 per cent of its power from renewable sources such as wind, solar and hydro power. (OpenNEM reports 37%)
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Where do they get the figure of 30-35% from “renewables”? Surely that isn’t correct?
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Don’t know their source but a readily available numbers is in the NEM dashboard, fuel mix, last 12 months.
Wind 15% Solar 7% and Hydro 9% for a 29% total.
Off course you can have a whole debate on whether Hydro should be there in a boiling “dams will never refill” and dams are bad anyway clown world, but there you have it.
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15 wind + 7 solar + 9 hydro = 31. Itβs not difficult to believe that with increasing penetration of wind and solar that this could have increased to 34 per cent. The problem is not with the amount produce but when it is produced. The amount of storage needed to get through a wind drought in winter is huge.
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Thanks John, brain fart on my part. Closer their estimate window also.
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And the hydro was built decades ago by engineers who knew how to build a grid. No new hydro is being built so that 9% will not be increased, that means that twice the already installed wind/solar capacity will need to be installed in the next 7 years. That won’tbe done with rooftop solar, without the high FITs there will not be a flood of new believers.
I am leaving discussing dispatchability for another day.
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That low hanging fruit has already been plucked.
The curve has plateaued.
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Actually there may be a 2nd wave of installations.
In southern Australia, people are discovering they need to have an installation suitable for WINTER sun. And batteries are becoming somewhat more reasonable in price. Emphasis on somewhat. And the costs of grid connections in rural and regional areas are becoming “financial disincentives”.
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Hi David
Don’t they count nameplate capacity as a percentage of demand, and also hydro is now a renewable ?
50
the witches’ cauldron: is ivermectin part of a depopulation agenda: papers, sensemaking & call ins
https://www.bitchute.com/video/hn7vs8xUzNdC/
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We’ve been treating livestock with ivermectin for a long time with no reported fertility problems – just sayin’
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People are not live stock, very different DNA, just saying.
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Ian’s logic is good. Most genes are very similar in humans and mammals. Often the main difference is in the promoters or the number of repeats. It’s the reason we test drugs on animals first.
EG. Insulin gene goes back to not just monkeys but all the way to clam shells. It is present in all “Metazoa” — molluscs, insects, fish, birds, mammals, apes…
https://academic.oup.com/icb/article/40/2/213/419013?login=false
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That’s the trouble with stupid targets that can mever be met. They are stupid and wont be met. If we ever hit the 60% that these seers predict, we will be in deep do do.
Unless of course its a paper 60% like the ACt 100% and the supermarkets 100% then no problem. Just make it up as you go. ReaΔΊity can be suspended.
170
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It’s a minor issue but important to me. I just entered a half marathon and the entry system asked for my “Sex”. It was refreshing to see that.
The other thing I have done recently is to delete a social account used by runners. When I signed up in 2017 my “Gender” was Male. When I saw it during the deletion process it had been changed to “Man”.
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You can now consider your gender change a success.
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A BBC staff diversity survey forgot to give respondents a heterosexual option, they probably didn’t think that there were any left there!
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12376975/BBC-diversity-survey-ridiculed-employees-discovered-heterosexual-not-listed-sexual-orientation.html
40
A comment to the linked article on the continued climate emergency frenzy promoted by the BBC:
Mike Austin, 3 hours ago
Despite all the current rain and low temperatures, the BBC still report global warming.
I have an explanation.
Itβs asymptomatic global warming, just like a covid infection but not explicitly described in the same way.
https://dailysceptic.org/2023/08/06/a-round-up-of-the-bbcs-climate-howlers-of-the-past-12-months/
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Dave Chappelle’s brilliant commentary on Trump.
https://twitter.com/TONYxTWO/status/1687506271744794646?s=20
2m video clip
10
Does it have a gas powered generator to charge it while driving along?
10
Now Just Stop Oil eco-clowns plan to bring chaos to Premier League footie matches EVERY weekend of the coming season by invading pitches and glueing themselves to goal posts
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12376311/Just-Stop-eco-zealots-hatch-secret-plan-paralyse-London-bring-city-streets-standstill-three-WEEKS-boasting-want-3-000-arrests.html
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I wish that, just once, one of these idiot protesters would be simply left in place, glued to whatever it is, with cones placed around them. In pouring rain, with no food or anything else. Just ignored and their pleas for help likewise dismissed and mocked.
Oh and make sure to video their tears.
60
https://rumble.com/v2ohtte-physicist-dr-denis-rancourt-presents-his-findings-on-all-cause-mortality-ot.html
Dr. Denis Rancourt Unveiling All-Cause Mortality: A Critical Analysis of the Pandemic Declaration and Vaccination Rollout | Ottawa Day One | NCI
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WOW, This is an amazing video!
30
FWIW
More “the shifting sands of the “Peking Pox saga”
“Dr. John Campbell recently published a YouTube video discussing a paper where 1 in 35 of those who partook of the clot shot had markers for myocarditis. Many, including me, wondered how long the video would stay up. As of August 1st, it is still there. ”
With speculation as to why it might stay there –
https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=249450
And in here starting at
“Did Dr. Paul Offit, official vaccine evangelist, just throw out a new limited hangout that may be signaling a huge shift in the jab narrative?”
https://open.substack.com/pub/coffeeandcovid/p/shokin-lives-sunday-august-6-2023?r=1vxw0k&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email
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The Forbidden City has flooded, the Beijing fascists might lose the Mandate of Heaven.
11
A different way to look at the nonsensical energy transition.
Think megawatt hours of gasoline
By David Wojick
https://www.cfact.org/2023/08/06/think-megawatt-hours-of-gasoline/
The beginning: “The energy content of gasoline and other fuels is usually measured in Btu, or kilojoules if you are metric. But it can also be done in kilowatt or megawatt hours. Fuel energy and electric energy are both energy, after all. Given the Biden rush to electrify all fuel use, this way of measuring helps make clear the fantasy of that policy. The amount of electricity required to replace ordinary fuel uses is enormous.”
Lots of specifics in the article. Please share it.
For example: “According to EIA, Virginiaβs estimated 2021 gasoline consumption is around 440 trillion Btu. The conversion is 3,412,000 btu = 1 MWh. So that is about 130 million MWh in gasoline energy. Also, in 2021 Virginiaβs electric power generation is 93.5 million MWh. So the gasoline energy is 1.4 times the total power generation. Thatβs a lot, right? If it takes this much energy to power our cars and light trucks, then we need to build generation capacity that is almost one and a half times our present generation to make the transition. We also need to build the costly transmission, distribution, and charging capacity to deliver all that juice to the EVs.”
It cannot be done.
Interesting to do this analysis for Oz.
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The USA consumes approximately 13 million barrels of petroleum per day supporting transportation.
It varies from 11 MBpd to 18 MBpd. https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/united-states/oil-consumption
The electrical equivalent of 13 MBpd is 920 GW/hr. https://energyeducation.ca/encyclopedia/Barrels_of_oil_equivalent
The total generation capacity of the USA is approx 1200 GW. In practice, approx 1000 GW.
Transportation uses the equivalent of 90% of the total generation capacity of the entire USA, averaged on a 24 hr period. If you want to charge all those EVs in 8 hours, you need new generation capacity of 2,760 GW in addition to the existing 1000 GW. Or else the grid will collapse.
It has taken 120 years to get the grid we have. Doubling or tripling that capacity for EVs will take another 100 years. 427,000 miles of transmission line would have to be restrung. an additional 100,000 miles of new lines would need construction. Transmission lines cost about USD 3 to 4 Million/mile. HVDC lines cost 500 Million USD per substation and 4 Million USD/mile with a max of 5 substations and a minimum economic distance of 1000 miles.
The time to construct new transmission lines in accordance with environmental law, eminent domain law, etc, is about 10 years per new line and 3 years per upgrade of existing lines, and about 5 miles per month per crew. . Then there’s the issue of upgrading substations and secondary distribution and end user transformers and service entrance lines to enable the power requirements of EVs. Each home, apartment or dwelling would need a new service entrance of some 300 Amps at 230 VAC per dwelling to accommodate the fast chargers.
This cost is in the Trillion USD range and 100 year time frame.
If you want to go solar, it would take 960 years if 1 m^2 panels could be produced, delivered, installed, and integrated, each second. And 600% of all known world reserves of silver.
And the LIon batteries to support that solar/wind system in the US, alone, would be 400 Trillion USD.
None of this is going to happen. Only an Idiot, Liar, or Charlatan would propose such stupidity.
40
Oh, if you’d like to use the GE AP1000 model nuclear generating plant, there’s a hitch.
Only one approved source can produce the ring forgings for the reactor pressure vessel, Japan Steel Works, and they have limit of one forging per month. That translates into 225 years of production if you can bring a nuclear reactor online every month.
The latest reactor in the USA is the Georgia Power Vogtle Unit 3, which is 6 yrs behind schedule, so overcost that GE Nuclear division is bankrupt. A total of 13 years for unit 3 and 14 yrs for unit 4.
Figure that into the EV fantasy.
30
Well, according to OWID , the world average for Nuclear reactor builds, β¦first pour to fuel loading,β¦ is 88 months.
France has built them in under 60 months, and China commissions 8-10 new reactors per year with a build programm of 50 months (4-5 years)
I guess china has a monopoly on those forgings, as they build licenced versions of the Westinghouse AP 1000 ?
11
France uses a standardized design. The US does not. You are speaking to “world averages” which is irrelevant to USA requirements.
Your arguments are not relevant to the reality in the USA that the Georgia Power Vogtle reactors are 6 years behind schedule.
https://dailycaller.com/2023/07/31/georgia-nuclear-reactor-online-delays-cost-overruns/
Why don’t you attempt to build an AP1000 in the USA and tell us about your experience.
Nothing fails more spectacularly than irrelevant comparisons.
20
And nothing more irrelevant than using a total outlier as a reference example.
Maybe get the french or Chinese to build those plants in the USA ?
Oh , and you may want to adjust your calculations using the reduced energy required for EV transportationβ¦
β¦IE, by a factor of 5 at least !
02
More irrelevant claims. Reference your claims at the least, else they are naught.
20
A minor correction Davidβ¦
I litre of gasoline contains 9.7kWh of energy = 38.8 kWh per gallon
Converting a typical 20 mpg (USA) gas car to km/kWh = 1.14 kWh/km
BUT a typical EV only uses 0.15 – 0.20 kWh/km !
So EVs only require around 13% to 20% of the energy to travel the same distance as ICE, which for that example of Virginia, would be only 17 -26 million MWh . !
That is only a fraction of their existing 130 m MWh generation capacity, and certainly within the capacity of 1 or 2 new NUCLEAR PLANTS.
00
Chad, there is a vast difference between what an EV charge cycle requires and the generation/infrastructure is required to support it. You argue that some things are possible, while ignoring the reality of an incapable grid and unavailable generation and dismiss the reality. I get it. You support EVs while ignoring the fact that the current grid is incapable of charging them, and no rational energy source can supply them in any reasonable fashion.
Then, you claim that world average construction times apply worldwide, while not acknowledging the differences in nation state laws regarding nuclear power.
So, from your claims, everything is possible if we simply ignore reality. Yeah?
There are reasons why batteries are inferior to hydrocarbons in terms of energy density. There are reasons why hydrogen is inefficient on a volume basis, and reasons why limited lithium resources cannot supply a world scale demand for more than 30 years. Yet you propound solutions that aren’t possible or sustainable. Which fuel cycle is sustainable. What fuel cycle design ought be used and why. That’s the part that is perplexing. The resources for wind and solar don’t exist on decade or century timelines. The only long term nuclear cycles that exist are thorium or MOX transuranic cycles. So how will this be accomplished?
40
Lance, ..you make a lot of assumptions.
I do not support EVs unconditionally,.. i simply accept that they are a viable alternative to cars, delivery vans, and some other specific applicationsβ¦..particularly in urban areas, for SOME users.
Personally i run 3 diesel vehicles with NO plans to switch to any EV.
But, I believe EVs do have an important roll in reducing the consumption of oil which is an essential feedstock for many other essential uses. ..
β¦Oil is not an essential fuel for most light transport (cars etc)
I have pointed out several times that there is sufficient existing power generation capacity in Australia to support a use base of 10 million EVs. NOW ! β¦β¦whilst noting that it will take at least 15-20 years before that 10m EVs can be produced and sold .
So there is much time for the power supply to be upgraded to deal with any issues that may be encountered.
And i certainly do not suggest Wind and Solar are a practical solution for power generation. Nuclear is the only viable option if you ignor fossil fuels.
The only significant point you should take from my comments is your lack of comprehension regarding the dramaticaly reduced energy requirements for electric propulsion EVs compared to ICEs , and how that affects your wild and inaccurate statements.
01
Pointing things out multiple times doesn’t make it reality. Its still just an opinion.
20
The whole point of this blog is fossil fuels is not a problem, the carbon pollution is a nothing burger.
Looking at alternative fuel sources is admitting a problem that does not exist, exists.
We donβt need an alternative, what we had worked my entire life.
We have been running out of oil my entire life as well, and we keep pumping it out at ever increasing volumes.
10
But even so, you would have to agree it is not an infinite resource ?
And sure, we need coal at least until a better, cheaper, option is in place.
I believe that option is Nuclear ,..in some form.. (Gen βxβ, modular, Thorium, e tc ?)
00
“The only significant point you should take from my comments is your lack of comprehension regarding the dramaticaly reduced energy requirements for electric propulsion EVs compared to ICEs , and how that affects your wild and inaccurate statements.”
1. EVs do not have “dramatically reduced energy requirements” vs ICE. The energy to charge an EV currently requires 70% + fossil fuel generation. The EV itself and its components are all made using fossil fuels. Show me an EV mining operation, steel mill, chip fab plant. Do it.
2. Your attack on my “comprehension” is laughable. You neither know me nor are qualified to comment.
3. Point out each of my “wild and inaccurate statements” and then we’ll have a discussion. Put on your Big Boy pants and have a go. One of your wild statements is that AU has “NOW” the ability to service 10 Million EVs. That’s a 600 MW load over whatever time frame you posit. Is that with AU lights on or off? Jobs or Not? At what Cost? Paid by Whom? Seems you have your own wild claims to justify.
10
I will ignor that comment and put it down to an evasion tactic on your part since you know full well we were discussing FUEL CONSUMPTION for transport, not manufacturing processes.
..Too many to cover here, but this is a starter..
β The electrical equivalent of 13 MBpd is 920 GW/hr.
The total generation capacity of the USA is approx 1200 GW. In practice, approx 1000 GW.
Transportation uses the equivalent of 90% of the total generation capacity of the entire USA, averaged on a 24 hr period.ββ¦
You wildly and incorrectly assumed that EVs would consume the same amount of energy (GWhs) as ICEsβ¦
..which if you bothered to check is totally wrong.
Typically EVs use less than 20% of the energy compared to ICEs
Its only βwildβ in as much as it is theoretical and i doubt we will ever see 10 m EVs whilst we have the same grid system..
I have no idea where you get 600MW from ?.. but i estimate that 10m EVs (traveling the same distance as the current 10 m ICEs they replace) would consume about 70000 MWh (70GWh) per day.
In a system that currently supplies 550-650 GWh daily, (and has an installed generation capacity of potentially 900+ GWh !)β¦i see no reason why an extra 12-15% demand should be a problem ?
And that assumes that none of the EV owners use their own RT Solar to recharge.
Managing the charge infrastructure and timing would need some smarts, but nothing impossible.
00
Talk about evasion, Chad. You’ve got that in spades.
EVs do not have βdramatically reduced energy requirementsβ vs ICE. The energy to charge an EV currently requires 70% + fossil fuel generation
The current grid is powered by 60% to 80% fossil fuels. Avg 70%
Ref: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=45096
So, I will ignore your comment as uninformed and baseless.
13 MBbl/day = 22092 Gw/day = 920.5 GW/hr. Gee. Pretty close.
https://www.kylesconverter.com/energy,-work,-and-heat/million-barrels-of-oil-equivalent-to-gigawatt-hours
10 Million Tesla EVs battery capacity at 85 KwH. Discharging them below 20% is a violation of the warranty. So, the max charge is 68 kWH. if 10 M EVs are charged at 68 kWH/day, that is a 28 GW/day load or 1.16 GW/hr, but if only half are charged simultaneously, it is a 0.58 GW/hr load or approx 600 MW/hr load. Diversity. Get it?
So you first claim “I have pointed out several times that there is sufficient existing power generation capacity in Australia to support a use base of 10 million EVs. NOW !” then you claim “Its only βwildβ in as much as it is theoretical and i doubt we will ever see 10 m EVs whilst we have the same grid system.” So which is it? AU grid can support 10 M EVs “NOW” or somehow different when you dodge with the “it’s only theoretical” and with a different grid system. Do the dance, eh”?
“Typically EVs use less than 20% of the energy compared to ICEs” says Chad.
No, Chad. Not even close. A grid that is 70% avg fossil fuel powered, at a Thermodynamic efficiency of 50% (that’s an HELE grid, 35% otherwise), then the electricity to charge those EVs is at best 35% efficient, and deducting transmission losses, charging inefficiencies, and the inverter drive losses, you are looking at 0.35 x 0.9 x 0.94 x 0.94 = 0.28 = 28% efficiency, at best. More likely the 20% you claim. But that is in comparison to a modern ICE engine that is essentially equal in overall efficiency.
“In a system that currently supplies 550-650 GWh daily, (and has an installed generation capacity of potentially 900+ GWh !)β¦i see no reason why an extra 12-15% demand should be a problem ?”
Therein lies your largest error. The US grid I reference does have approx 1000 GW generating capacity. The other 200 GW are offline for maintenance or emergency peaking or reserve. The grid must meet actual connected load within 5 to 30 seconds response time or else the grid goes into voltage or frequency induced collapse. What happens when that 600 MW load is dropped onto the grid during summer heat waves with aricons and peak evening loads? Well, in the US, at present, unless you live in CA, NY, MA, CT or TX, not much. Because the Wind/Solar penetration is less than the grid reserve capacity that is needed to backstop the unstable and undispatchable wind/solar, which is about 249 GW nameplate, or 62 GW reasonable CF or less than 6.2% overall, but higher in TX. If wind/solar exceed about 20% of “actual” generation, then the grid is unstable because 20% of that 1000 GW is required to backup the wind/solar, so that leaves you with 800 GW of actual dispatchable generation and the peak grid load is about 750 GW demand, then if 62 GW of EV load is added, the grid can collapse.
RT solar is irrelevant to grid scale energy. It isn’t dispatchable or reliable. Reliable Grids don’t run on hopes and dreams or bit players that bear no responsibility for being unavailable.
The grid follows the load. Solar and wind follow the grid. S/W are already behind the actual reality taking place, and disconnected if the main grid synch signal is lost. If you can’t balance the generation and load in less than 1 to 3 minutes, you are facing grid collapse and a black start scenario. That isn’t recoverable with more than 20% S/W generation in less than 3 to 6 months, if ever. The majority load is inductive and inductive loads take 4 to 6 times the generation to initially start up. So restarting a failed grid is a dicey game and may not be possible. EVs are an extraneous load that serves no useful purpose.
Risking so much for so little is not a wise move
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Lance,
I have replied and moved this on to the current Thursday thread #16, before it drops off the sidebar.
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Great Data.
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UK experiences year without a real summer, Homewood mentions the jet stream and blocking as the cause.
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2023/08/05/is-our-cold-wet-summer-due-to-global-warming/
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There was one in June. We were there and really enjoyed it. It’s done and gone now though, in time for the summer holidays!
During school years I remember baking in hot classrooms doing exams. in June and then having rather cool and/or wet weather for July and August.
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Jeffrey Sachs: Resentment and Nuclear Threats
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Johannes Leak again
https://michaelsmithnews.typepad.com/.a/6a0177444b0c2e970d02c1b25c2a8c200d-pi
Makarratta – Treaty in Arnhem Land culture of thirteen clans.
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What you might describe as Elbow being stitched up
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More on the shenanigans of “Elbow the Truthful” and “Their Voice”
I caught a bit of Ray Hadley interviewing Warren Mundine this morning so went and found it –
https://www.2gb.com/podcast/the-ray-hadley-morning-show-highlights-august-7th-5/
It is from 23:00 to 31:30
and worth listening to IMO, as it stitches in the WA back off from their latest horror “permit to dig a post hole” act.
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Open borders, Fentanyl (and other drugs), Philadelphia. Beggars belief.
https://twitter.com/DrLoupis/status/1688201073800974336
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San Fran is right on it’s heals.
Well they did say they would keep us distracted with drugs and video games.
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Malcolm Roberts interview, 50 minutes of reality.
Well worth a watch.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xu7Hu-o_lKA
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FWIW
“Developed Nations With Packed Infant Vax Schedule Linked To Higher Childhood Mortality Rates: Study”
https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/developed-nations-packed-infant-vax-schedule-linked-higher-childhood-mortality-rates-study
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The Real Indicator of Economy Crash: When You See This Happening
Charlie Munger Predicts a Horrible Economic Crisis Where Everything Will Collapse
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Smell of gas blowing in the wind
Even the luvvies say NSW wind farms donβt add up
https://www.spectator.com.au/2023/08/smell-of-gas-blowing-in-the-wind/
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Latest in the race for the lowest
“Again, wind power in Alberta drops to 0.8% capacity, three days after province puts brakes on development”
http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/2023/08/07/again-wind-power-in-alberta-drops-to-0-8-capacity-three-days-after-province-puts-brakes-on-development/
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And the comments there – including
“Windmills and solar panels are like federal government workers β they frequently donβt show and provide no output, yet still get paid in full.”
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Willis E questions again –
“Hunga-Tonga Mysteries”
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/08/07/hunga-tonga-mysteries/
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FWIW
“What does Commoditization REALLY Mean?” – to medicine
https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=249456
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FWIW
“TRUTH TELLING FOR THE YES VOTERS”
https://richardsonpost.com/cliff-reece/32550/truth-telling-for-the-yes-voters/
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