The biggest blackout has hit South Australia since the statewide crash of 2016. It’s due to a weather calamity, but the renewables state is struggling to keep the frequency stable for a whole week without the rest of the national grid to lean on. This time they have the back up generation, but they’re going to great lengths now to stop the surges from solar and wind — there’s no where to dispose of excess electricity…
On Saturday afternoon a storm system blitzed out 423,000 lightning strikes and brought down some 500 lines, including the Heywood interconnector that joins South Australia (SA) to Victoria. That is out of action until Friday, so for a whole week the Star Renewables State of South Australia is on its own — Islanded from the national grid. The test is here, and right now at 6am they’re running on 80% fossil fuels and 18% wind, plus millions of dollars has been spent on frequency control, and they’re trying to turn off the solar panels.
The storm caused blackouts affecting 163,000 customers or roughly 18% of the state. Power was restored for most within hours, but there were still 35,000 properties without electricity on Monday, and some still out tonight (late Tuesday).
So the fragile grid teeters on. But the first thing the renewable energy star state had to do was dump their solar power because it threatened to push the system over. The highest risk moment they are worried about now is midday Thursday, because it looks like being a sunny day. Oh, the woe!
Too much solar power for grid stability?
At the time the tower fell about 400MW of electricity was flowing out of SA into Victoria. But afterwards there was suddenly an oversupply of energy in SA that couldn’t go anywhere and the frequency surged far outside the normal range.
Not only did SA Power Networks (SAPN) cut off all the panels that they could remotely control, but they even put out a facebook plea for South Australians to manually disconnect their own panels — something Paul McArdle of WattClarity doesn’t think he has ever seen before.
Indeed the idea has been floated that SAPN may be sending voltage spikes down the line specifically to trigger the automatic cut-off’s and trip the solar panels. It’s not clear if this is the case, so it may be something else, but people are reporting voltage spikes of 255V or higher and lasting for four hours and McArdle asked the question.
Mark Jessop has noted that: ‘SAPN appears to be increasing line voltages to cause PV inverters to trip out. Interesting decision, but I’m not sure what other options they would have (probably not enough systems which are remotely controllable yet).’
Below is a suspicious voltage jump on Monday, with Mark Jessop saying that “even though it was cloudy today I guess there was enough generation for @SAPowerNetworks to have to do the voltage step thing again…”
Voltage surges in SA | Mark Jessop
If it is deliberate it would be a Wild West story in grid “control”. We know high voltages above 253 trip out solar panels, but they also damage other appliances too. If they need to create “demand” they could always ask everyone to turn their air conditioners and ovens on at midday? Dear South Australians, help the state and press Go on your pyrolytic ovens at noon….
This has left some solar power owners feeling somewhat vexed and perplexed and downright deflated — they’re sitting in the dark, and with a Tesla powerwall, yet they can’t use their solar panels at all and their neighbors have the lights on with diesel generators…
It’s a long thread of comments on Facebook… (for anyone with a Tesla battery, apparently you can switch it to “off grid mode” in a blackout.)
And some people thought solar panels meant they were less dependent on the grid, but it turns out the grid controllers were just renting their roof space.
One of the lessons in this experience is what happens when the renewable states can’t dump their excess power in the state next door. When every state is in the same boat, and all running unreliable renewables, they will all still need complete back up and the ability to switch off your solar panels.
This week, frequency is everything in South Australia
South Australia struggles to keep the frequency stable after they are disconnected with the bigger and more stable Australian grid.
Thanks to Dan Lee at WattClarity: this was the first hour of frequency gyrations:
South Australia was really struggling to control the frequency of the grid after the Islanding.
Allan O”Neill notes the astonishing prices in the Frequency Control Ancillary Service (FCAS) market.
FCAS driving the island?
So here we see that all that FCAS volatility since separation has driven big chunks of revenue for suppliers in the region…
Keeping the grid stable is earning good money for some. In the chart below the batteries like Hornsdale or Dalrymple are bringing in big dollars but not producing much in the way of megawatts. The gas generators are obvious because they are… generating. So wholesale prices for electricity haven’t gone through the roof this week in SA (much) but gas generators are making money in FCAS payments to keep the grid stable. That’s a nice $400 – $900 /MWh for them. Not too shabby. But a killer for the customers, and a hopeless long term solution.
But clearly South Australia isn’t remotely ready to cut the cord and go 100% renewable either.
Once upon a time no one needed an FCAS market because we had so many giant turbines. Now we have almost as many giant turbines, but we also have a whole lot of small unreliable generators too. Twice the infrastructure! We don’t need the unreliables, and if we cut them out we wouldn’t need the FCAS market either.
h/t TonyfromOz
Why the storm was so intense.
Sadly, the climate-zealots will learn nothing. And the situation will almost certainly get worse for Australia.
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They will never admit they’re wrong . .
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First rule for Leftists.
Never admit you’re wrong.
Just cover your mistakes with more lies or censorship and call your opponent the usual ad homs: racist, sexist, tin-foil-hat-wearing conspiracy theorists, far right, uneducated etc., etc., etc.
However, we’re getting to the point that the Sheeple are so dumbed-down, they are not even capable of recognising mistakes and the legacy and social(ist) media tell them what to think.
You can also get a sense of how insanely stupid a majority of people are by the sort of election advertising published by Victoriastan Dear Leader Andrews. He knows exactly how stupid his supporters are and his advertising confirms that.
Look at his promotion of the new state owned unreliable energy company he is promoting which is supposedly going to lead to cheap electricity prices, for example. How low an IQ must you have to believe that nonsense?
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Dick Dan managed to convince all the plebs that he did all that damage to himself falling down 2 or 3 steps.
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Dan did have to aviod parliament questions when his evidence was damning.
As the matter became less topical and his amnesia became madatory for ministers and staff his injuries became less.
Alfred hospital are now making demands. Is this a bribe? What does Dan’s doctor know?
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What’s the ABC’s comment on this? If any.
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I don’t know but good chance it will be along the lines of, ‘this shows we need more solar and wind’.
I’m still waiting for a single journalist in that groupthink collective to report on the total ’emissions’ generated by wind/solar over their full lifecycle to justify their use? They might be in for a shock when they realise for all those billions spent, a net increase in ’emissions’ results with the added benefit of destroying our biggest competitive advantage, cheap power. You would be mad to run an energy intensive manufacturing operation in this country now. Maniac Andrews in VIC is even paying manufacturers not to run when its a bit hot for goodness sake. During the last few years of Ford Australia, they were forced to stop melting metal during dayshift because it was not worthwhile due to the power cost inflated by RET and tripling of coal royalties.
And then how about an investigation into the outcome of spending trillions world wide on this non problem…reduction in temperatures? improved climate? The only thing this lunacy has achieved is the trashing of our standard of living.
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“During the last few years of Ford Australia, they were forced to stop melting metal during dayshift because it was not worthwhile due to the power cost inflated by RET and tripling of coal royalties.”
I didn’t know about that Ando, would have been tough to run a business like that.
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“The only thing this lunacy has achieved is the trashing of our standard of living.”
If you listen to the people driving this mess, (WEF etc)
… you will see that trashing our standard of living is EXACTLY what they are trying to do. !
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“I’m still waiting for a single journalist in that groupthink collective to report on the total ’emissions’ generated by wind/solar over their full lifecycle to justify their use?” – Ando
See here
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PS – Yes, I know. That journalist is outside of their groupthink.
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No. Our standard of living is small beans compared to the takeover of our free thought and action. Everywhere we look big government is getting bigger and more intrusive to keep us safe of course. If we are not careful we will be as crippled as the kulaks of the USSR. Remember the US destroying a Vietnamese village in order to save it? Well our super smart leaders are destroying our economy in order to save it just as they destroyed our lives during the Covid BS to save us. They are either inept or evil: there is no other explanation.
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“ They are either inept or evil: there is no other explanation.” – Lawrie
Sadly, it appears to be a hefty mixture of both.
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All roads lead to more Unreliables, all weather events indicate CO2 is evil, 2 legs not 4.
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The MSM has been largely missing-in-action with its coverage of SA’s seriously challenged electricity supply.
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Unless the lights go out big time they aren’t interested. All the teetering on the brink, she’s gonna blow type stuff is of no interest and casts doubt on “the narrative” Especially with a Labor government in power dont expect any curiosity about why the cheap and effective “renewables” arent just coasting through.
Its all a fly speck compared with what Andrews has been allowed to slither by on.
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I found a reference from last year as reported by the ABC which says they use smart boxes to regulate supply. Seems As though it’s common practice.
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https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-16/sa-businesses-count-cost-of-storm-power-outage/101658904
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-14/power-blackout-south-australia/101649858
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-14/sa-blackouts-compared-to-2016-electricity-cut/101649566
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-15/renewables-switch-off-on-the-cards-as-sa-remains-cut-off/101653744
among a few other more general storm damage stories
wonderful things search engines
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Once again, the warmistas will blame fossil fuels.
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ADMINISTERED PRICE PERIOD DECLARED in SA1 region.
AEMO has determined that the rolling sum of the uncapped market ancillary Lower Reg, Raise Reg services prices for the SA1 region over the previous 2016 trading intervals has exceeded the cumulative price threshold (CPT) of $1,398,100.00.
In accordance with Clause 3.14.2(b) of the National Electricity Rules, AEMO has determined that an administered price period will commence at the trading interval starting 0405 on 16 November 2022 and will continue through to the end of that trading day.
An administered price cap (APC) of 300 $/MWh will apply to all trading intervals during this administered price period. This APC will apply to all market ancillary service prices in the SA1 region.
AEMO has detected there is an elevated risk of the contingent disconnection of Distributed PV (DPV) with the loss of scheduled generation exceeding secure thresholds in the South Australia region from 1000 hrs 16/11/2022 to 1600 hrs 16/11/2022. The maximum forecast DPV contingency is 117 MW at 1330 hrs and the DPV contingency direction trigger is 36 MW.
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Errr..
What are they saying?
🤔
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my translation fwiw
they are putting price caps on to limit the price escalation Jo detailed (dont know if it included FCAS)
they are saying they will disconnect distributed solar panels is they have (if they form to large a part of generation they cant schedule)
its a shame these notices have to be couched in Sir Humphrey Appleby speak rather than plain English
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It’s designed to hide the facts that:
1) The system is fundamentally defective and not worthy of a civilised nation.
2) They have no clue what they’re doing.
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2) “They have no clue what they’re doing.”
The outcomes so far sure are saying that.
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“ 2) They have no clue what they’re doing.” – David Maddison
If they weren’t aware of how offensive their actions were, they wouldn’t be trying so hard to make it seem as if it was otherwise.
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be good if I could type in plain English also:
“they are saying they will disconnect distributed solar panels is they have”
means
they are saying they will disconnect distributed solar panels if they have to
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Which means they will remotely switch off your rooftop solar PV if they have to.
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Don’t believe that the current inverters support remote switch-off Jo. Further, I suspect that older inverters also don’t support shutdown when the grid rises to 260 Volts.
I haven’t seen the latest Aust. standards for inverters, so aren’t sure if all new inverters have to support remote switch-off. It’s been talked about, but don’t know if it’s now in the Standards.
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All inverters are supposed to shut down at 253V and this has been mandated for at least 12 years.
The problem is that rooftop solar is NOT put onto the grid, it just reduces local demand in the sub-district. Too many local panel installations in a sub-district can raise the voltage as the inverter struggles to push the (excess) electricity out. Before that some ‘cow-boy’ installers were boosting the voltage control to maximise output.
In recent years there have been moves to make remote switch-off possible.
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It looks like remotely commanded disconnect has only been required since September 2020. So for the bulk of the installations it may be that driving them off with over voltage is the only other centrally commanded option.
source for the date https://www.solarquotes.com.au/blog/solar-disconnect-explained-mb1792/
which presents it as a good news story and part of something to be “proud of”
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Ok, but only for South Australia? Thought that would have been a change to Australian Standards. And as you point out, only applicable for recent inverter installations.
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‘What are they saying’, gibber gibber, waffle waffle.
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Couldn’t happen to a nicer state.
Oh, hang on, there’s always Victoriastan with
DDD (Dangerous Dictator Dan) promising 100%
renewables if he is reelected.
Time ALL interconnectors are opened AND locked open.
We need to get away from the circus that is the AEMO.
I have stronger words for them, that probably wouldn’t
get published.
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why start with the parochial BS? it adds nothing and shows you are doing nothing like “just thinking”
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The problem with locking open the interconnectors is the potential for another Statewide SA blackout. Interconnectors are vulnerable and if one falls over or trips out while there is a large load it may trigger cascading collapses on both sides. That’s why the interconnectors are much more constrained now than they were before 2016. At all times the network controllers have to assume the interconnector could fall over and be prepared to recover from that break.
If SA had more stable baseload running — the interconnector wouldn’t need to be constrained so often.
The problem in 2016 was that they allowed 500MW to run (not that much more than the 390MW running on Saturday). As wind farms tripped off, that rose to nearly 900MW which tripped the Heywood interconnector. Grid managers realized too late that they had effectively treated the 500 – 900MW supply line as if it was a generator that couldn’t shut down. They didn’t have backup ready to run if it fell over.
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Grid “interconnections” remind me of lads from my uni days who had a rich daddy who’d bail-out their debts when they repeatedly failed to put aside 10% of their earnings for unexpected expenses. If Sth Au had no interconnectors the people would have forced the govt to rectify the problem by now. This is elementary self-response-ability at a State level.
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and he gets 16 likes from equally unpleasant types to our east.
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Of course all these delights are coming to a state near you, just wait and see the Andrews loony turn off our very reliable and stable COAL powered system in Vic. And what about WA problems?
AGAIN what happens in the future when we have very sunny weather in DROUGHT years and heaps more of the S & W lunacy to turn off and on?
Honestly is this any way to try and run a modern economy in the 21 st century? And who would want to try and run their existing business or start up new businesses under these circumstances?
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The odd thing is they are so driven by their ideology they dont learn anything. They continue down a path that has not been achieved anywhere in the world at the penetration % they are stating.
They learnt nothing from SA Disaster 1, California failing regularly, Energiewende debacle or the UK’s current issues. They will ALWAYS manufacture an excuse, its a storm, its the Ukraine war, its climate change, its “unreliable coal” etc. Any but its a decade or two of really bad decision making. They blithely step over the fact we have had cheap reliable power for 70 years + before they started fixing things.
The only reason SA is still working at all is that Weatherdill got panicked into spending half a billion dollars on gas turbines and batteries going into a summer election after the last blackout.
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“Honestly is this any way to try and run a modern economy in the 21st century? And who would want to try and run their existing business or start up new businesses under these circumstances?”
Basically all we do in this country apart from being a sheep station and a quarry, is sell overpriced real estate and coffee to each other.
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Ronin,
You are ahead of the pack with this thinking.
I am old enough to remember the “golden years” of the 1970-80 era when many people opened their morning newspapers at the mining investment pages before cartoons and sport. Headlines were about new resource discoveries, new plant being built, surges in export sales, resource company share prices. It was a differen, exciting world.
These days, it seems that many younger folk think that mineral resources grow on trees, that the aluminium that made the aircraft they are flying in comes magically with the purchase of the aircraft, that the world will never run short of supply.
We remaining observant folk have to do all that we can to get people out of “jobs” that entail telling others what to do and into real, productive, wealth-generating jobs like farming, forestry, mining, manufactiring things we can sell.
Not cups of coffee served to each other, that reminds me of two truckie friends who crossed paths at Albury, one headed for Melbourne, the other for Sydney. “What are you carrying?” “Eggs”. “That’s funny, so am I”.
Soon we will see person A serve coffee to person B in the mornings, the other way around in the afternoons, because nothing alse to do. Geoff S
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The WA govt has already raised concerns about the possibility of summer blackout. In a state that has more than sufficient supplies of coal and cheap gas, this is ridiculous.
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I read recently : You can have green or growth, but not both.
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from that link that Jo provided, to watt clarity, is a comment that I don’t understand:
“But some (like Tailem Bend) will probably have been that way because of ‘no negative price’ clauses in their PPA;”
what does the no negative price mean? thank you
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The off-take agreement that Talem Bend solar farm has with Snowy Hydro prevents it from providing power into the wholesale market when the SA price is negative. It would be shut down now because the price in SA is currently MINUS $63.50/MWh.
An intermittent generator can usually make money at any wholesale price less negative than the cost of LGCs (currently $65.75/MWh).. During the middle of a sunny day in SA the price sits around MINUS $60/MWh in spring and autumn. However intermittent generators also have some exposure to FCAS costs as they are the reason there is a FCAS market. Intermittent generators pay roughly half the FCAS payment that goes to dispatchable generators. Snowy Hydro may simply avoid treading the fine line. They will often be paid for FCAS so it would be silly to have that eroded by the solar farm paying for the FCAS.
I figure Snowy Hydro have the clause on negative price so they do not need to get involved in the fine line between profit and loss that intermittent generators balance on when the market is oversupplied.
A further note on the situation with FCAS. Normally rooftops are left running providing the local voltage is below the limit. There should be a big political backlash in SA if rooftops are being shut down in preference to wind farms. Of course rooftops are not exposed to FCAS directly but all consumers are exposed by the component levied on retailers. This is another hidden aspect of the intermittent Ponzi where rooftops reward their owner but penalises consumers without rooftop solar.
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Per AEMO notices, distributed PV curtailment is occurring in the SA region to maintain system security due to a Distributed PV Contingency condition.
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SA should be the first Australian State/Territory to go under. If it wasn’t for the VIC Interconnector, the State would have gone under by now. Can’t wait for the SA voters to finally wake up to reality.
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Too much crow to eat! It is all beyond belief and good humour listening to experts on how things work in their little world. Reminds me of King Midas. In reverse.
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Trouble is The Hollies also recorded a version of Bobby Scott and Bob Russell’s “He Aint Heavy, He’s My Brother” which, from the mindset of all the hippie free-love, freedom man, be yourself, you are owed everything original 60s generation and their offspring totally trumps the Midas warning. The drug induced idealistic smoke haze into which reality started to disappear back then is still the fog obscuring the minds of our present younger generations. We have moved from free love to all love is equal with only my love is better than your love so you stop loving still to come.
“He Ain’t Heavy, He’s My Brother”
The road is long
With many a winding turn
That leads us to who knows where?
Who knows where?
But I’m strong
Strong enough to carry him
He ain’t heavy, he’s my brother
So on we go
His welfare is my concern
No burden is he to bear
We’ll get there
For I know
He would not encumber me
He ain’t heavy, he’s my brother
If I’m laden at all
I’m laden with sadness
That everyone’s heart
Isn’t filled with the gladness
Of love for one another
It’s a long, long road
From which there is no return
While we’re on the way to there
Why not share?
And the load
Doesn’t weigh me down at all
He ain’t heavy, he’s my brother
He’s my brother
He ain’t heavy, he’s my brother”
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That was great, everything he touched turned to 54it.!
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Victoria won’t be able to provide any interconnector power very soon at 100% W/S.
NSW should reserve all of its reliable energy for itself and let the others including Qld work it out.
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So what happens when a WA coal miner goes broke? And can or will the WA govt step up to the plate?
The Andrews loony is telling Vic voters that he will start up the old SEC in Vic if he is re-elected, but the WA govt doesn’t seem to be as keen to go down that path? Very interesting times indeed.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-06/power-on-the-brink-as-indian-coal-loan-turns-toxic/101612696
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WA’s McClown seems to think it’s not his problem, private enterprise should come and fix it.
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Twiggy to the rescue and the Kerry Stokes’ Seven West Media to cover up the mess.
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The WA govt is planning to (or has already started) to import coal, despite that fact that the coal power stations are sitting next to coal mines that still have a lot of coal. They also plan to shut down Australia’s newest coal power station in 2025. Coal energy used to supply 40% of the SWIS grid power, but that’s now dropped to around 20% and will become nil in 2025. Currently, because of the mild weather, the SWIS grid doesn’t have to generate much energy, but come summer, it could be interesting.
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To reinforce these comments, during the daytime gas around 35%, coal about 20%, with the rest coming from home solar and wind in equal amounts. But every night, gas has to step up to around 50% all night.
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Here’s a radical thought – we keep on being told that S+W power is free.
Why not make all that excess power generated by S+W above and beyond normal grid needs be offered to anyone who can use it for FREE!
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not much of a market for unstable, intermittent energy even for free
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I think we need to stop using the meaningless term “renewables”. It implies goodness and wholesomeness but they are nothing but unreliable, expensive, economy-destroying parasitic loads on what was once a properly engineered, reliable grid that provided some of the world’s cheapest electricity, which was once considered a competitive advantage for Australia..
Unreliables.
Parasitic loads.
Subsidy generating plant.
Ruinables.
Might be better terms to consider.
I prefer “unreliables”.
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Intermittent?
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Yes. I forgot to include that one.
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Ephemeral?
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Sadly it doesnt matter what we call it , if the MSM and the pollies keep calling the “renewables” and spinning positive , that is what the public will hear. All part of language control to continually push “the message”
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I beg to differ. As explained by George Orwell, control of the language is one of the left’s weapons. Any word that we reasonable people can get into the daily language to counteract them will be helpful. I rather like “intermittent energy” for wind and solar, as it is a well-known word, accurate, and non-pejorative. Others may feel that another word is better. But if we all agree on what word we will use, and then hammer the airwaves relentlessly with it, who knows – we might start to make a real difference. Better to try than just give up.
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nice theory , but we the small fact oriented minority don’t drive political language. The so called education system, the pollies and the MSM do. We carp on the sidelines by comparison.
global warming, climate change, climate crisis, denier, “renewables”, ……phobic, safe and effective vaccines, far right etc are all in common use now.
I didn’t mention giving up BTW those are your words. I just dont dream I have an impact by putting “renewables” in quotes the way I do, as I am not the mainstream.
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Good points David, but I prefer TOXIC unreliables because S & W have to be dumped into landfill every 15 to 20 years and the entire TOXIC process has to begin again.
Then we have to add TOXIC, dangerous EVs to the very same process and at least twice the cost of a much better existing ICE vehicle.
Why would we burden ourselves with these future disasters, when very simple sums and common sense tells us we are heading over a cliff?
But try telling that to the silly religious fanatics and some become very hostile and seem even more unbalanced.
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Fantasy Energy
LARPE – Live Action Roll Play Energy
Aspirational Energy
Mythological Energy
Energy of Aquarius
Doll House Energy
Kabuki Energy
Tengu Energy
Energy Burlesque
Roulette Energy
Crapshoot Energy
Cotton Candy Energy
Send in the Clowns Energy
Energy is a Social Construct Energy
CBNC Energy (Close But No Cigar)
Speed of Science Energy
Schrodinger’s Cat Energy
Naked Emperor Energy
Pink Elephant Energy
(Not Bigfoot Energy ’cause Bigfoot is real)
Reliable as the US Election System Energy
Brandon Energy
Me Love You Long Time GI Energy
60
I use “not grid-worthy” a lot. (Seinfeld fans may spot a link)
30
It was quite a storm which among other things brought a large tree down on the Victorian interconnector near Tailem Bend. They are trying to put up temporary pylons and reconnect ASAP.
Fewer customers are blacked out now but there are areas which will be without power for some time. Stirling in the Adelaide Hills has power on one side of the main road but on the other side they are not expected to get electricity back before Saturday. (That is the side of the town with the hospital and 2 Retirement villages). Just further south there was 2 kilometres of line out in the hilly area (Upper Sturt) where those who like lots of trees live.
At the top end I know someone who has power as part of a block of several but 4 houses away are blacked out.
The State Emergency crews are doing wonders, working 16 hour shifts.
No problem here in the Onkaparinga valley/ Mt. Barker (the major town). I noticed only 2-3 weeks ago that the Electricity Grid Co. had the gangs out trimming the trees near the lines.
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Don’t they cut trees back from major power lines any longer?
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Maybe that NRMA ad where the kids take down the tape markers from all the trees due to be cut for hazard reduction inspired someone misguided pruescent south of the border.lol.
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“some misguided pubescent…” Gotta stop posting while “He Ain’t Heavy He’s My Brother” is playing as clenched fists are not good for typing, lol.
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Trees? Can’t cut them down, they’re *carbon sunks* fergoodnessakes.
Looks like another storm is on the way: snow for Bluff Knoll, WA, Friday, before the ‘eye’ passes over Adelaide Saturday. Fun times ahead.
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They give them a good savaging around here. We have some very odd looking trees in some places.
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Since Electranet got fined for problems a few years ago with bush fires, there are regular trimming of trees near the overhead cables (At least in the Adelaide Hills near where I live. Upper Sturt would be difficult, narrow winding road, lots of trees and lots of Green inclined inhabitants.
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I was at a function inside a restaurant in the western suburbs of Adelaide which was scheduled to finish at 4pm Saturday which is right when the storm hit. No-one was leaving until it passed. Water came inside from an overflowing gutter and the staff were busy dealing with it. I haven’t seen anything like it for over 20 years.
It felt safe to leave at 4:45pm and I took the 30-minute drive home on a different route than I normally would. Some traffic lights were out or flashing amber and I saw one tree half down with branches twisted like a corkscrew – very odd. My power was still on but the neighbouring suburb (CLG) was blacked out. I guess it will be my turn next time.
I heard yesterday that my daughter-in-law staying at Clarendon in the hills is still without power three days later.
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Another article about the situation.
https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/markets/solar-and-wind-power-shutdown-forecast-as-sa-remains-cut-off-from-national-electricity-grid/ar-AA146XXm?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=ad936bcc9e6245f3bb023ed839b78659
The Glenelg tram line had trams stranded on it near level crossings on Sunday. Electric trains were still running.
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good article describing the situation, surprising to see it near mainstream news
40
An ABC story from this afternoon (Wed).
” Meanwhile, uncertainty remains over whether household solar power will have to be switched off tomorrow, with authorities saying no decision has been made yet.
Authorities said Thursday would be the likeliest day for a request to switch off rooftop solar panels due to the sunny forecast.
Electranet chief executive Simon Emms said a request would come as a “last resort”, but if a request was made, households may need to contact their solar panel providers to understand how to turn their panels off. ”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-16/sa-businesses-count-cost-of-storm-power-outage/101658904
Cheers
Dave B
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It’s not an easy process to shutdown your solar system, but the step-by-step process is written somewhere, usually on the inverter, with labels.
20
Excuse my ignorance but can someone explain what happens to the solar panels when they are disconnected from the grid. I read somewhere that the panels must produce electricity as long as they are exposed to sunlight. Is there a risk of damage and what about the inverter ? . .
81
They would still be producing power to the inverter but no current would flow.
Much like water pressure to your taps but no flow with the tap turned off
I.e, no risk
Disclaimer – I know enough to be dangerous
91
Thanks instant understanding. Yes I been told that flow water in a pipe could be a useful analogy for electricity . .
20
Hmmm, not really. Think more a row of steel balls dangling in a row. Move one end ball and the ball at the other end jumps out. So the energy travels, but each ball doesn’t move very far. Now you understand energy flow through electrons in a conductor.
71
an article that discusses solar panels without load
https://www.portablesolarexpert.com/what-happens-if-a-solar-panel-is-not-connected-to-anything/
60
Even that explanation is wrong, as it talks about electrons flowing down a wire. They don’t move very far in reality.
41
irrelevant in terms of the question really
20
Graeme, so DC is not the flow of electrons from -ve to +ve?
Gosh, I’ve been wrong all these years. I must find out how electroplating works! And, how a lead Acid battery works.
Oh well!
20
The panels just go open circuit, they do nothing, something they have plenty of experience in, the inverter stays shutdown but sensing the grid for a restart.
60
Jo, Tony,
A great big “thank you” for doing what represents a lot of work in backgrounding this report. A lot of people in SA will thank you for, dare I use the word, “shedding” light on what must be for them at present an otherwise completely imponderable situation.
I take no joy in mentioning that I pointed out, 10 years ago, albeit in the careful language of a scientific paper, that this kind of chaos is a very likely outcome of connecting highly variable, intermittent generation to a grid, and in particular, when the authorities try to shut down the huge, fully dispatchable turbines at the same time.
Your last point, Jo, re the FCAS required merely to balance all this parasitic “generation” is spot on.
I have no doubt that the following has already been said by others who are far more insightful than I: if, as a policymaker, you are concerned about the impacts of so-called “climate change”, wouldn’t you be concerned to design a power grid where the generators are hardened, protected against the vagaries of the weather and, in particular, against extreme weather events?
Yet here we are, our policymakers deploying more and more weather-dependent toy generators, proposing to build more and more weather-susceptible, long, transmission lines. When are these people going to wake up?
For example, those who had the power stations in Port Augusta blown up should be made to pay out of their own pockets for a coal-fired replacement. Such a generator would at least alleviate the difficulties resulting from beyond the end of long transmission lines from the rest of SA’s generation.
My heart goes out to all those innocent people in SA that are affected by the chaos resulting from this stark failure of energy “policy”.
Thanks again, Jo. One of your best.
Best regards,
Paul Miskelly
320
Thanks for your comments Paul, but we shouldn’t forget a few pertinent facts I’ve linked to many times.
There’s nothing we can do about future weather, climate or temperature at all.
See Dr Finkel under oath in the Senate inquiry. Even if we stopped all Aussie co2 emissions today. That’s just 1.1% in 2022.
Even the CSIRO tells that the entire SH is already a NET co2 SINK and the NH is a NET co2 SOURCE. See CSIRO Cape Grim site.
AGAIN there has been no increase in Net co2 emissions from the wealthy OECD countries and the combined USA + EU co2 emissions have not increased since 1970. See Wiki graph and data 1970 to 2018.
160
Neville,
Note that I did say: “If, as a policymaker”. I am not thereby endorsing any such views. Let’s stay with the point of Jo’s article, which is to expose the mayhem that such policy failures cause.
Paul Miskelly
120
Good point, Neville, but hardly surprising.
Most atmospheric CO2 ultimately ends up dissolved in the ocean.
The NH is mostly land, and the SH is mostly ocean, so absorption will be much faster in the SH.
SFA to do with puny humans.
110
Paul Miskelly,
Thank you for your many contributions.
It is sad that folk like us who just happen to have relevant knowledge and experience on these topics are not able to be heard in places where it matters.
I’ve been arguing that climate science is too poor to be useful since 1992, but I do not see that it has had much impact.
An example follows.
Geoff S
http://www.geoffstuff.com/rba.docx
130
The AEMO NEM Dashboard is showing 2 Interconnections between SA and VIC could uld the line have been repaired already?
50
Look at the capacity they are capped at. Click on the coloured circles.
The smaller connector from SE VIC is unaffected but maxes at 130MW ish
The larger connector is the one impacted and is only running a trickle
100
Murraylink is a smaller 300MW DC connection between Vic and SA. Because it is DC, it can’t help much with frequency stability directly, only through balancing the load.
50
Yes Ian1946 and OpenNem shows SA still importing most days in this 7 day chart
https://opennem.org.au/energy/sa1/?range=7d&interval=30m
80
SA is a net importer of energy. Has been that way for a couple of years.
20
So, no Paradise by the Dashboard Light, then?
20
The Left never ever learns. They always propose grandiose (expensive) schemes which are supposedly for our benefit.
The huge problem is that they have no idea about the unintended consequences of their actions and don’t understand that because something is technically possible, it is often not practically possible. For instance, Senator Gerard Rennick, a totally outstanding individual who I am in regular contact with, asked had the 20 000km of interconnectors necessary for these Leftists schemes of renewable generation actually been costed or actually been budgetted for? They had not.
So the supposedly “cheap” (free according to the AEMO…) renewables need an uncosted but probably tens of billions in extra infrastructure investment. They also need a complete backup grid that is virtually the same size as our current generating capacity – again uncosted and not allowed for. To say nothing of uncosted and unallowed for batteries to firm up the grid and provide some instantaneous backup – which must be replaced in 10 years time.
This is a catastrophic mistake. Why has a series of nuclear stations in place of current coal fired generators not been looked at? The cost will be far lower and they actually work!!!!
Nothing good will come of this, we have our civilisation being destroyed before our very eyes.
210
The left never learns, they have nothing to learn, they know it all already, you know, like your teenagers, font of all knowledge.
90
The AEMO dashboard for the energy mix at 0830 hours today in South Australia shows;
Solar 25%, Wind 25%, Gas 48%, Battery 0.25%
Gas is keeping half the State of S.A. online today, without gas and coal, HALF THE STATE WOULD BE WITHOUT POWER.
Blackouts followed by more blackouts, this is the future in Victoria as the Greens and the Labor Party have banned coal and gas.
https://aemo.com.au/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/data-nem/data-dashboard-nem
130
And when the sun goes down this evening.. and if wind drops a bit more..
… gas could have to go to 80%+
… and they will have to start their diesel generator farm !
120
We can’t even recycle soft plastic bags, let alone windmill blades and solar panels.
140
Ronin,
One of my past took me to monthly management meetings of a large Aussie forestry and paper subsidiary. This group looked at recycling of forestry and paper products in some detail. I learned that after about 4 recycles, original wood fibres were too damaged to be used any more in paper making, so they had to be diluted to very low levels to avoid paper that fell apart.
There was some discussion about whether the whole concept of recycling was valid, with most saying it was not, except for a few (some boutique) products like gold that did not degrade a lot with re-use.
These days I see recycling as just another means for control freaks to gain more control to exert their particular pet theories of governance. Look at how banning plastic straws evolved from a single video of a turtle with one up its nose. Juvenile logic processes follwed.
Try teaching that conclusion in schools!
Geoff S
Geoff S
150
Thanks for that insight Geoff, yes, recycling, carbon offsets , variable power, all sent to try our patience.
70
Most clever countries don’t recycle, they feed it all into high-temperature incinerators. The resultant small amount of ash left is non-toxic and can be safely disposed of in landfill. Even treated sewage can be fed into the incinerators. The claimed downside of this is the generation of CO2.
40
Even 20 years ago I remember a New Scientist article admitting that in Europe it didn’t make sense environmentally to recycle paper because the transport distances were too large to return the paper to the recycling mills. If it couldn’t be done in Europe, how could it possibly make sense in Australia?
They concluded we were better off burning the paper in power plants than using diesel to return it for reprocessing. Yet here we are 20 years later…
110
Yes, and someone suggested rolling them up into a log shape and providing cheap heat for pensioners and those on welfare. There was even a simple device for doing so, but it was a financial flop.
Similarly with household waste, including plastic, it would be simpler to bury it and wait for “bugs” and anaerobic breakdown to methane gas. In fact this is used even in Australia (on a small scale) but if we were to name the process BioFuel then the Bio-fools would be screaming for it to be adopted.
50
It’s not a good idea to bury plastic waste, as they can leach toxins into the groundwater for a long time.
20
I’ve just returned from a trip to Japan. There they (a very clean, tidy country) recycle bottles and cans (bins with limited diameter circular holes) but all other waste is labelled as “combustible” or “non-combustible”. Tells you what they do with waste we spend a fortune trying to recycle.
20
I have a 315 lit HWS with a thermostat which is connected at present to the O/P circuit. Some tanks have two electric elements and while expensive, it would be possible to have this connected to a metre that was remotely controlled by Bluetooth/ internet from the power company so that they could “dump” excess power at will.
To save expensive normal mains power I pump up water to a header tank and wash clothes at night on O/P. Perhaps we all need to learn to use power when it is surplus (cheaper).
31
It’s possible John+PAK — but there is a price to rearranging human body clocks, timetables, and circadian rhythms. Washing clothes at night means noise at night, potentially disturbing sleep, and the clothes stay wet longer allowing mold to grow before they are hung out, especially a problem in summer. Hey I’m guilty of leaving clothes in the machine for 24 hours, and it’s not the end of the world, but there are many little costs.
Just the mental effort of replanning the day clogs up our brains…
70
I had my O/P set with a clock rather than a Ripple Unit so it is still ON until 7:00 every day. If I get up at sun-rise (normal) I can wash clothing between 6 and 7 and hang it out before going to work. I had to run an O/P circuit to the laundry when I was building it.
20
Flinders Island, 90% diesel.
100
What mentality would believe that the weather is going to get hotter and more chaotic and yet build a grid that is mainly weather dependent power.
210
Perfect summary!
120
A mentality that wants to destroy our civilisation.
90
AGL is now under the control of a green board.
If all units are shut down at Liddell in April, next winter will be an interesting period for the NEM.
130
“If they need to create “demand” they could ask everyone to turn their air conditioners and ovens on at midday.” – article
I can hear the conversation now.
Govt – “Everyone, due your duty, and pitch in to save the grid!”
People – “Will you pay us compensation for the power we use that we don’t need?”
Govt. – “No.”
People – “….#^*$&!@ you!…..”
Oh, yeah. That ought to work.
90
Do people still have those hotwater relays, why not turn them on when there’s more power than they need, they should also be fitted to dishwashers, clothes driers and aircons.
40
Imagine a whole town they do that to. Then people get tired of living there and all move out, but lights and appliances continue to go off and on at random. Ghost town out of The Twilight Zone?
40
Hmm!
Here’s the link to the wind output from all wind plants in Australia, and this is the current live data so, whenever you click on it, the data at far right on the graph IS for the most recent five minute period you clicked on, so when I link to it, this is for 10AM Wednesday morning, and as all AEMO time is linked to Queensland, that’s Australian Eastern Standard Time, so NOT daylight savings time.
Okay here’s that link to current wind output.
When the graph comes up, it shows all the colours for all the wind PLANTS (how I detest the use of that word ‘farm’ when related to Industrial Wind Plants) showing their Capacity Factor.
So at the top right of that graph, where it shows % MW, click on MW.
The solid line indicates total power delivery from all wind generation, and the coloured lines along the bottom indicate each wind plant.
Now, under the graph is listed the codes for each wind plant, and at the bottom of that is shown each individual State.
Now, UNCLICK each State ….. except SA. (South Australia)
The lower solid line now indicates just the output from ALL the South Aus wind plants.
You can see that total output stumbling along the bottom of the graph, and that SA output at 10AM is ….. 201MW from a total Nameplate of 2351MW. (so, a Capacity Factor of 8.5%)
Now, look across to the right of screen and up one map of Oz, and that’s the most recent Synoptic Chart for Australia, dated 5AM AEDT. (so 4AM real time)
Note that huge High Pressure weather system, and its location with reference to SouthAus and all its wind plants.
So, it might seem that while solar power might be high on the day in question, wind power will be low, real low!
Oh dear ….. the, umm, consequences of ….. weather!!!
Tony.
To see the most current data, refresh the screen, and at 10.15, SouthAus wind is now down to 159MW
160
“am I bothered?” would seem to be the way of the world … Like taking a horse to the trough … maybe more chance of a horse taking the drink than the Politicians and MSM on behalf of the Gang Green Blob ( GGB ) getting the message. UNfortunately politically minded engineers and bankers are encouraging the BBG .
thaks for the explanations once again.
20
Currently, NSW has just enough spinning reserve in the real generators to cope with daily fluctuations caused by intermittent generators and scorching air-conditioned after-noons but when one of the ageing coal units breaks down we will be in a similar situation to Sth Au and my power station operator son says that, rolling 4 hr power-cuts are planned.
My partial solution is to buy a small battery with a super capacitor bank to run my fridge and freezer 24/7 on a separate islanded circuit. I’ll charge it from the off-peak circuit at night and by day I’ll run a couple of double sided PV panels.
In rural areas we need an electric household water pump but I have recently elevated a 7000 litre header tank to provide 6 metres of shower pressure. Every month I fill this from the main in-ground tank using O/P power so the coming rolling power outages will not compromise my 96 year old mother-in-law living here, especially during bush-fires.
Au has: enough coal for the next century; enough gas to run every vehicle on the road for a century and huge uranium reserves. IMO, now is the time for us to develop an Au Atomic Energy Authority and design our own Small Modular liquid helium cooled Reactors to drop into existing coal plants and ships. We also need to develop our own nuclear waste disposal program with a Plasma Incinerator to reduce r/a half life and a small plant to create boron silicate bricks to retain toxins and residual r/a in perpetuity.
When my father was born (Brisbane 1922) this was “the lucky country” but it has “gone to the dogs” and we are now some weird Monty Pythonesque loony bin where science has been replaced by Green virtue signalling from those with a wilderness between the ears. As a long-time conservationist I find it disappointing becos real environmental degradation is rarely addressed.
170
More correctly, I should say Plasma Pyrolysis.
Au has a few of these little units for PCB destruction but the same process is useful for r/a waste accelerated decay. Plascon do a neat little self-promotion video. No mention of price tho !
50
Sorry, my bad with the link tag. Try this or just search for Pasconusa.com
40
Not if the developed world want solar panels and wind turbines. The only way China can achieve that level of production is use up all of the coal in Australia in the next 30 to 40 years.
The mining industry has recognised it needs to increase output four-fold to meet the Net-Zero targets by the end of this century.
The developing world has its hand out for more than USD1tr per year to cover its transition. That alone will keep China very busy.
80
The thing about Oz coal, especially the primo stuff from the Bowen Basin, is that it is ideal for STEEL making, burning it to make steam for generators is a bit of waste, just about any old rubbish can be used for that; you just need decent scrubbers in the exhaust stacks. However……
Our rice-propelled cousins want our “good stuff” to make quality steels. Think about who might be their domestic customers for high-grade steels.
I would bet that their constantly-growing fleet of coal-fired power stations are merrily consuming Their own domestic supply of “lesser-grade” coal. Also, has anyone been monitoring bulk goods crossing the North Korea / China border?
Have a look here, for a start:
https://www.gem.wiki/North_Korea_and_coal
70
Does anyone remember “pig iron Bob”
40
As Bruce correctly points out above, there are two types of coal – generally referred to as “brown” and “black”.
The black is the stuff used in steel making and is referred to as “coking coal”. It is NOT burned – it is thrown into the molten iron to provide the carbon to turn it into steel. If greenies want carbon locked up they should be promoting steel making.
Brown stuff is low grade and is the stuff burned as fuel. China no longer buys Australian brown coal so they are unlikely to “use up all the (brown) coal in the next 30 to 40 years” as you claim, Rick.
They ostensibly stopped importing our brown coal as part of the trade tariffs wars, but in reality they stopped because they discovered vast quantities in Tibet. They built a 2,000 klm railway line in less than two years to bring it down to China. There are videos of the railway construction on YouTube.
50
Victoria has enough brown coal for at last 500 years- so more than 1 century. That’s also the easy to get at stuff. Additional deposits ( harder to extract) put that out even further. Plus, oodles of gas.
40
It’s remarkable and tragic that there are no power systems engineers in positions of public prominence prepared to speak out against this madness.
190
David, yes it is. !
60
Kind of like politicians regulating what Drs can and can’t prescribe.
100
@Yonason, straying O/T but I had the “medics running healthcare” discussion with a recently retired GP from Manchester (UK). I suggested he sit upon a regional health steering committee once a month but he basically said the system is stuffed and doctors are sick and tired and want to retire as early as possible. He started fondling his left ear and looked away disinterested. My recently resigned Newcastle (Au) hospital Dr friend tells me he does not miss the job at all and would never go back.
The problems start in “Admin” and “Govt”. Clearly our regulator (APRHA) has been corrupted.
50
Thanks, John+PAK
That squares with some feedback I’ve gotten from some of my medical-professional friends. Insurers are also not doctors/patient friendly, according to them.
20
Real working engineers often arent the best spokespersons/lobbyists/activists. They also have mortgages and families.
The blind lining up on the dogma by their professional organizations disappoints. They at least could provide a layer between authority and the individuals, but they are just part of the problem.
50
Liddell going dark will be close to the straw breaking the camels back, the next closure will bury the camel 6 ft under.
110
On the bright side, when we commence routine “load shedding” the people will “go Greta” and scream “…it’s not fayer” and before long someone will donate money towards a few 2nd hand RB211 gas turbines from moth-balled Jumbo jets and build a few Combined Cycle power stations running on our almost limitless gas reserves.
30
Greta Tintin Eleonora Ernman Thunberg is a light to the world when the John Cleeses and stand-ups are so limited by “woke” rubbish.
10
Related:
THEIR ABCess et al have been boosting Mike Cannon Brooks for weeks and it got “louder” yesterday with this AGL caper..
The needle on my “BS Detector” went and “pinned” well and truly. Anyone know his real back-story?
60
I heard it was snowing in the Alps today
60
You anti-renewable lot are never happy.
“It can’t provide the power…”
“There’s too much power…”
The ac frequency is off by 0.5Hz
Always something to complain about.
Just plug in all those ev’s to soak up the excess.
If you moan any more we’ll put you back on coal.
/sarc
70
So as that high weather system wanders slowly across Croweater territory tomorrow ( and Friday) it’s going to be sunny and possibly quite windless. Which seems a disastrous mix. So, the government or power companies should request all SA residents tomorrow between 11am and 3 pm to wander around their houses and turn on every possible light and appliance they can. This would maybe soak up all that excess solar which normally gets shunted off to Victoria etc. Then when the sun recedes a bit, go around and turn every light and appliance off, that they just turned on 4 hours previous. Then maybe light some candles and have cold meat and salad for tea. Just saying.
60
Why disastrous if they are down on wind power? their only remaining options then are solar and gas/diesel.
Whatever the scenario they end up with they are having their “interesting times” I guess
50
Coal as we know and find it, is a relatively finite product. Oil & Gas …. ?? However, even if it does all run out in some future time period of 1 to 3 Hundred years, why are we hastily consuming it to produce machinery for producing electricity, which simply does not work! ( work as in reliability and longevity of the Plant) + all the disposal Costs and problems. We are racing to a fairly known Buffer, or cliff edge: will we be able to descend that Cliff when we get there, or catastrophically and tragically fall over it? We are NOT lemmings, though it seems that the Lemming gene is strangely taking hold in our population ( think about that one ! ).
Continue research in all by all means, but keep the powder keg dry.
30
Folks are running around like headless chooks in SA today because the power might be off from 12 – 12 Thursday. Cars and trucks are being fueled up. Out-patients that rely on the grid to power their life support machines at home are being transferred to major hospitals where there is gen-set capability.
So what has this head-long rush into renewables taught us? Fossil fuel (diesel and petrol) are more dependable than S+W!
70
Thank you Stanley. I’m interested in reports from the inside!
10
I dont see why there is a problem at all ?
According to Anero, SA has enough fossil generation (2.8GW ?) to more than satisfy all state demand. !
20
But haven’t they got the worlds biggest battery! Yes I know the issue here was too much electricity but we’ve been told that the battery plus renewables was all that was needed.
40
Dalrymple North Battery is making $275,000 per MWh! If folks are buying electricity for those kinds of prices, I’ll be happy to supply it for only $250,000/MWh 🙂
50
When you look at the big picture of the energy transition strategy it is insanity on steroids from an engineering perspective. Someone needs to explain why the governments in all states are funding rooftop solar and at the same time they’re funding large scale grid solar. This is completely insane and not just because the maximum energy is produced at midday when it’s not needed and little or no energy is produced during the evening peak when it is needed. The real insanity is that the government is subsidising customers to remove their demand from the grid at midday and at the same time they subsidise large scale grid solar to create maximum grid generation capacity at midday. How is this allowed to happen ???. And, not far behind on the inanity list is the consumer outcome, where users are being driven off the grid to avoid the huge retail prices caused by the unreliable RE, by using more subsidised unreliable RE, reducing much needed revenue flows going back into the grid, needed to pay for the hideously expensive RE transition. Of course the transition to RE will never happen, because it’s not cost sustainable and the solution is completely reliant on the weather, making the entire grid an electricity lottery, where the winners are big green, hitting the jackpot every day at the expense of the consumers.
20