JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


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The devastating floods of Brisbane in 1893

At least eight people have died in dreadful flooding in South East Queensland and Brisbane. The slow moving rain system moved south through NSW, inundating towns, and has arrived in Sydney and surrounds, where evacuations have begun.

Despite the pain, some are already exploiting the situation for their climate religion or their retirement plan. What was torrential rain is now a rain-bomb, and to stop floods they yell at us that the Climate Change Emergency must be our priority!

A few days ago the floods in Brisbane peaked at 3.85m. Apparently this was due to a surplus of coal fired power or a lack of wind turbines, or something like that. But this photo below, was taken in Brisbane 129 years ago, when there were almost no coal turbines anywhere in the world, and CO2 levels were ideal, yet floods reached 8.3m.

1893 Brisbane Flood

Not climate change: the flood waters rose to 8.3m.

And in the land of flood, fire and drought, it keeps happening. In 1974, floods in Brisbane reached 5.45m. In 2011 the waters were 4.46m deep. Obviously things have changed a bit: the Wivenhoe dam wasn’t there during the first two floods, and the hydrology of city streets is not like it used to be. Nonetheless the flood of 1893 was shocking.

An incredible 907mm or 35.7 inches of rain fell in a single 24 hour period. That was at Crohamhurst on the Sunshine Coast. If that isn’t a rain-bomb, what is?

Brisbane floods 1893, Poul C Poulsen ANMM Collection

Brisbane floods 1893, Poul C Poulsen
ANMM Collection |

The 1893  Black February Flood was not just one flood but three floods in a row in one month that caused 35 deaths. Another 190 were hospitalized.

The tide gauge in the city reached 8.35m, which was almost as high as the 8.43m rise recorded in floods in 1841. (Imagine how bad that flood was?)

Both the Victoria bridge and the Indooroopilly Railway bridge collapsed.

 

1893 Brisbane Flooding, Photo

Trove. National Library of Australia.

 

Indigenous people, apparently knew of the risks of flooding and built their camps on higher ground. Probably, flooding has been going on since time began. It is said that they tried to warn the settlers not to build to close to the river but the settlers did it anyway.

Broisbane Flood 1893

Trove. National Library of Australia. |  Click to enlarge or follow the link to read in full.

.
Shocking footage though a few days ago:
Brisbane.


Lismore (which is definitely not Brisbane, sorry to mix themes):

 

Addendum: It’s a Cult:

The unvaccinated are not allowed to fill sandbags. Better to flood a home than let an unvaccinated person volunteer:

Volunteers need vaccination to sand-bag

Volunteers need vaccination to sand-bag

On a lighter note, kangaroos do jump through houses.

Best wishes to everyone affected by flooding.

9.9 out of 10 based on 65 ratings

128 comments to The devastating floods of Brisbane in 1893

  • #
    David Maddison

    Why do people keep building in flood plains and then expect the taxpayer to bail them out directly or expect taxpayer subsidies for insurance companies to cover their flood losses?

    The locations the hazardous areas are well known!

    Many of the houses flooded and rebuilt have been rebuilt multiple times. There is a name for repeatedly doing the same stupid thing over and over!

    I have never bought a house without first checking possible flood levels.

    In any case a lot of floods coukd be minimised or eliminate if Green types allowed appropriate dams to be built.

    I am sympathetic to anyone who loses due to floods of course, but these are mostly preventable losses.

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    • #

      It’s the local Councils who allow people to build on flood plains. Graft and corruption probably plays a big part in these approvals for Property Developers and others. Get on the train from Blacktown to Richmond and just look at the number of houses that have been built in the last 10 years on very flat ground (was farmland) that has probably always flooded when the Hawksbury River gets too high.

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      • #
        David Maddison

        Yes, but ultimately it is individuals who are stupid enough to buy there. Government is (not yet) forcing people to live on flood plains.

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      • #
        Strop

        Get on the train from Blacktown to Richmond and just look at the number of houses that have been built in the last 10 years on very flat ground (was farmland) that has probably always flooded when the Hawksbury River gets too high.

        I deal with land development in Victoria and there are flood overlays, inundation overlays, special building overlays galore throughout the planning schemes that prevent it. We deal with land that is subject to inundation and improve the drainage with floodways, fill the land to above flood level, and ensure any filling that consumes flood volume does not adversley affect or exacerbate flooding elsewhere. I’m not familiar with the planning controls and the flood management authorities who govern the land you’re referring to, but I doubt the similar processes are not in place.

        Of course, it’s all subject to theoretical modeling and theoretical 100 year storm events, but the theory indicates no one is deliberately allowing or knowingly building in a situation where the floor of the house will be inundated. Particularly anything in the last 10 years, but much longer.

        Down here we even have theoretical sea level rise allowance.

        Properties that are flooding are generally older well established communities.

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    • #
      John

      Everyone who takes out home insurance has to pay for the foolishness of people who built in locations at high risk of natural disasters. Insurance was originally for people who had equal risk but that notion seems to have died.

      240

    • #
      el+gordo

      Not sure if floods can be eliminated completely, because of where people have chosen to live. The dam they have should minimise the risk factor, but obviously this doesn’t always work, such as in 2011.

      We should be able to recognise when the high precipitation cycle comes around, roughly 40 to 50 years in Brisbane. It would be worthwhile knowing the PDO phase.

      111

    • #
      Kneel

      But,but, but…

      Climate change!
      Drought is the new normal.
      The dams will never fill again.
      We need a desalination plant to supply drinking water.
      Who would suspect the were in any danger on a flood plain if that was true?

      140

      • #
        exsteelworker

        Yes indeed, imagine if we damed every river down the East Coast of Australia, hydro power for ever.

        10

    • #

      Firstly, thanks Jo for mentioning Cromhurst where there was an observatory manned by a prominent scientist and meteorologist. It is in the hinterland near Maleny. Buderim is a hill where the original settlers of the area lived cutting timber which they hauled to the rivers below. It overlooks the Maroochy and Mooloolah rivers down at coast where the famous beaches are. (note Maroochy airport now takes International air traffic and old runway was/is flooded). At the Buderim PO for the 4 days to 3rd Feb 1893 1.15m rain was recorded. It rain for every day of Feb. 1893 to record a total of 1.82m of rain for the month and a total of 3.848m for the year. However, the wettest year was actually 1898 for a total of 4.0m rain with 1.38m for Jan, 0.43m for Feb and 1.19m for March. By contrast Buderim PO recorded only 0.52m for the whole of 1902 at the beginning of the Federation drought. It is very possible that more rain will fall but sure as anything a drought will follow.
      David M, agree about last sentence. A Royal commission recommended fixing up the Wivenhoe dam after the 1974 Brisbane floods. Then after the 2011 floods another Commission of inquiry recommended fixing and raising the dam wall. Now again in 2022 people have died due to the lack of action by ALP governments with greens influence. Remember, that useless but influential climate activist/paleontologist saying around 2007 even if it did rain, the dams would not fill.

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    • #
      Phillip Bratby

      I have lived in four houses, and the first consideration before buying was “is it liable to flood?” You have to be pretty stupid to buy a property on a flood plain.

      40

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      Strop

      Here’s a chart of Lismore flood events greater than 6m from 1870 to 2017.

      https://lismore.nsw.gov.au/files/Lismore_Flood_Events_1870-2017.pdf

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      • #

        Strop, the chart clearly shows that there has been no increase in the frequency of floods.

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        • #
          Strop

          I didn’t post it to make a point. Just as info. But seeing as you have made the observation I will point out the X axis is not linear. So while it looks at a glance that the frequency has not changed, 4/5 of the chart is the last 75 years and 1/5 of the chart is the previous 75 years.

          As far as major events above the levee, including this years not on the chart, there were 8 events in the first half and 9 events in the second half of the period. Not statistically significant IMHO, but there does seem to be many more events between 6 – 10m in the more recent half of the period.

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  • #
    PeterS

    Climate Scientists Want To Go On Strike

    That would be a very good thing!

    160

  • #
    Glenn

    I recently wrote to my local federal member pointing out that roads that flooded here 28 years ago in February, flooded again last week, in exactly the same spots, cutting off food, fuel and mail deliveries. The highway from Brisbane to where I live was also cut, creating all sorts of problems for people.

    In 28 years of governance by our expert leaders, we cannot even manage to flood proof a few roads.

    About four days of heavy rain totally crippled the area, and stripped local supermarkets almost bare.

    If the Chinese ever decide to invade, they should plan to do it around February if we have a week of rain.

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    • #
      PeterS

      In that scenario, after China has finished with us they would begin building massive dams to capture the vast amounts of water that falls in Australia then start growing large fields of food. They would also build coal and nuclear power stations. Still, I prefer China did not invade us for other reasons that are too obvious to mention. Sadly though we might not have a choice going by the way our Western leaders are behaving of late.

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  • #
    lindsay samuel phillips

    Morning Jo,
    I spent most of my formative years in a house less than 1km from the (unfortunately) well-renowned flood-pit of Rosalie.
    From 1973 to 1994 we lived in Payne st., Torwood.
    There was a laminex strip around the high-set house at window-sill level, we asked the vendor or realtor “What that was?”, & they said it was to cover up the high water mark from said 1890’s flood.
    By the way, only covered our front fence in 74.
    It’s a pity adopting green ideology necessitates some wacky kind of early-onset alheimers, when it comes to any historical weather events! (LOL!)
    Warm regards, reformed warmist of Logan

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    • #

      Thanks Lindsay — Photos of anything that survives now are useful ammo. Or I guess old photos work too, even if the buildings are gone. 🙂

      Australia doesn’t have the 300 year old walls with flood markers, but whatever we do have, we should preserve!

      10

      • #
        Bill Burrows

        It is important to appreciate that the younger generations seem to only believe that history began on the day they were born. I have linked the following https://getpocket.com/read/3413631195 on numerous blogs over the years (including this one I guess) in an attempt to give commenters who fall into the short history category a better perspective. Of course it is not just flooding rains & droughts & bush fires & coral bleaching etc (or heck even wars between nations) that seemingly repeat endlessly over time. It is the silliness of humanity who also fail to learn from past mistakes.

        The Long Paddock poster series is a brilliant concept and learning tool (regularly updated). It ought to be prominently displayed in the weather and environment newsrooms of every MSM outlet in Australia. I bet it isn’t!

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  • #
    David Maddison

    I wonder how much of the recent years of failure to flood proof and drought proof Australia via systems of appropriate dams and canals can be traced back to 2007 when Tim Flannery made an “expert evidence-based scientific prediction”:

    “Even the rain that falls isn’t actually going to fill our dams.”

    Meanwhile, after that “prophecy”, countless billions have been thrown away on mostly-unused desal plants and windmills and expensive “green” electricity has greatly contributed to Australia’s deindustrialisation and general economic decline.

    And remember Flim Flammery’s “hot rocks” scheme before that? How many proper power stations were not built because of that? As a taxpayer I want him to pay back my share of the $90 million taxpayer grant that went into that one.

    Just imagine if the money wasted on solar and windmills was spent on something useful and much cheaper like dams and canals to irrigate and flood proof Australia (which may also have produced a bit of hydro as well)?

    But the whole scam of anthropogenic global warming has nothing to do with improving Australia or any other country. It is nothing but a plan to destroy Western economies and transfer wealth and power from the ordinary folks to the mega rich Elites. Sadly, the “useful idiots of the Left are so heavily indoctrinated that they will never understand how they are being used.

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    • #
      Tel

      If you think the spendthrift squandering was bad back then, just take a look at the money that’s been printed since 2020.

      https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/central-bank-balance-sheet

      Click the “10Y” timescale to see how it was mostly flat and then blam … goes straight up. Not only is it worse than we thought, but it’s unprecedented. There’s never been money printing in Australia anything like what’s going on.

      20

  • #
    beowulf

    The 1893 event was a huge flood event down the east coast; many rivers had record flooding from at least Rockhampton in the north to at least the Hunter River at Maitland/Newcastle in the south. Its effects likely extended further, although they were patchy with some river systems being less affected.

    The Macleay River at Kempsey on the NSW Mid North Coast had such a volume of water flowing in it that it changed its course and cut a new mouth to the sea 50km from where its old mouth had been.

    At Maitland a baby girl was found floating on debris from somewhere upstream. Her parents were never located. She was renamed Dorothy Flood by her rescuers.

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  • #
    David Maddison

    Even Australia’s Bureau of Meterological Propaganda admits to historic floods in the Brisbane area.

    And perhaps their flood data hasn’t yet been adjusted to show the required political message of an increase in flood frequency and severity due to supposed anthropogenic global warming.

    Have a look (link below) before the data is “homogenised” out of existence and perhaps archive the page. And there is not even mention of the word “warming” on that page at all.

    http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/flood/fld_history/brisbane_history.shtml

    110

  • #
    John

    November to March is not called “the wet season” for nothing. Brisbane gets its highest rainfall at that time of year and that sometimes includes floods. According to the daily data for Eagle Farm, the racecourse in Brisbane that used to have a weather station, about 800mm of rain fell in about 4 days back in 1974.

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  • #
    Peter Fitzroy

    is it the size of the flood, or the frequency?
    1841, 1893, 1929, 1974, 2011, 2022
    Do you see a pattern?

    313

    • #
      David Maddison

      Insufficient data to see a pattern.

      Plus, people decided to build in flood plains more and more.

      Even the Aboriginals told the early settlers not to build on the flood plains as Jo pointed out. They knew flooding was a regular occurence 200+ years ago.

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      • #
        Peter Fitzroy

        David, you go from a 50 year average to 40 years and now 10. (for brevity I left out the moderate floods)

        As to building on floodplains, government offloaded this to the insurance industry. You can now build anywhere, and in any style, but insurance could be a problem if you are in fire prone or flood prone areas.

        I would have thought a person such as you purport to be would be all in favour of this. After all you have the freedom to build whatever and wherever you like,

        It is hypocritical to demand freedom from mask mandates, and then demand that the government provide flood and fire protection, as I’m sure you (and Jo) would agree.

        118

        • #
          David Maddison

          I fully support people building in flood plains Peter. If they are stupid enough to do so, let them. But my taxes should not be spent subsiding these people to rebuild or government subsidies of insurance companies to cover the risk. Insurance prices should reflect the actual risk and nor be subsidised.

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          • #

            Peter, you must be kidding. We can NOT build anywhere and in any style. There a pages of bylaws and rulings 6 feet deep. People can buy properties, but they can’t subdivide and sell unless the government gives them permission.

            If land is short in supply and valued at extreme global levels compared to median wages (and it is) then who is to blame? We live on the lowest population density continent on Earth (apart from Antarctica) — yet our land price is exorbitant, and we are now selling 300m2 tiny blocks and pretending this is “the Australian lifestyle”.

            There is a million square kilometers people could build a house on (and thats only in WA), but they can’t have a backyard anymore.

            60

        • #
          Ronin

          Insurance, if you really need it, you can’t get it and if you can get it, you can’t afford it.

          00

        • #
          b.nice

          “for brevity I left out the moderate floods”

          So leave out all the floods that don’t suit your imaginary pattern.

          That’s funny ! 🙂

          00

    • #
      David Maddison

      What pattern do you see here, Peter?

      It’s data from “your” BoM.

      http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/flood/fld_history/brisbane_history.shtml

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      • #
        b.nice

        Brisbane River had lots of regular floods before 1900.
        Now just occasional short periods that don’t reach those levels.
        I guess if you ignore all the big, but not so advertised, floods between, you could imagine the pattern that Peter imagines.

        10

    • #
      el+gordo

      The cyclic pattern is important, it appears that the wet cycle is now happening every 10 years because of AGW.

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      • #
        Bruce

        It seems to float (so to speak) around the same timings of Solar activity. Who ‘da thunk that a rolling thermonuclear bomb, 93 million miles away, might have some influence on the weather around the globe. look at the logs of solar prominences and particle “storms.Then, there is the big rock in the sky, whose gravity drags the atmosphere and the oceans around as it orbits.

        The “old-timers” had good reason to keep an eye on the sky. The bird-life is likewise canny. They seem to change their migration and feeding behaviours shortly before one of these big wets, especially in tropical areas.

        The reasonably observant individual can easily spot the huge flood plains left by the activity, (regular and spectacular course changes) of the Brisbane River. The effect of all that water pressure on the big fault lines that underlie and are partially responsible for the path of the river are a whole other related topic. The floodplains extend from relatively small ones up near the headwaters to the mouth of the river. “Cutting corners” is not just restricted to shonky builders, pollie-muppets and churnalists.

        I’ll remind everyone that after the 1893 floods, a plan was hatched to dam the offending Stanley river. It was finally commissioned in 1959. The catch with the 1974 flood was that the big rains fell over a MUCH wider area of thoroughly pre-saturated real-estate, further west. Ditto the 2011 event. People pass through and away, newcomers do not know the history, nor do they seem to have an “eye” for the ground; one of the many prices of “urbanization”. Wivenhoe was finally built AFTER the 1974 ripper, but it is compromised by being “dual-purposed” (More “experts”). I’m no spring chicken, but I’m planning to still be around for the next big wet, probably in 2033, and maybe a bit sooner, just for the re-confirmation of my already abysmal opinion of “experts”, churnalists, pollie-muppets, et al. I wonder if I will have to learn Mandarin……

        50

    • #
      el+gordo

      Brisbane is relatively dry for 35 years and then they have a five year window of wet conditions.

      https://theconversation.com/floods-dont-occur-randomly-so-why-do-we-still-plan-as-if-they-do-93371

      08

    • #
      Neville

      PF, El Gordo provided a link to a very wet period from 1890 to 1896, so cyclones were very active in that period.
      Thankfully today we’ve seen a lower trend for cyclones in the Aussie region since 1970, so just more solid proof of their climate change BS and fra-d. See BOM graph.
      Here’s EG’s link.

      http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/flood/fld_history/floodsum_1890.shtml

      80

    • #
      Graham Chubb

      1841 to 1974 – 133 years
      1893 to 2022 – 129 years
      A full lunar/solar cycle – 132 years, so well within the possible range of influence of several planetary cycles.
      Piers Corbyn (weatheraction.com), I believe, basis his long range weather forecasts mainly on this theory. Piers has a Masters Degree in Astrophysics.
      Australia’s records are too short in time. Europe has much longer records.

      70

    • #
      R.B.

      This is how stupid wsrmistas are. The claim is for less frequent but 30% more intense rainfall when it does happen, by 2040. So less rain than 1893 but twice in 11 years is not what was predicted by The Science.

      10

    • #
      robert rosicka

      1893 floods to 1895 start of the federation drought = 2 years

      Didn’t we have bushfires 2 years ago ? The real pattern is in the nature of boom and bust , flood and fire etc that is the land we live in called Australia . Always has been always will be – “Unpredictable” .

      50

  • #
    David Maddison

    In Brisbane, unvaxxed volunteers are not allowed to fill sandbags to save lives and property from the floods. Disgraceful!

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    • #
      Fin.

      It’s worse than disgraceful, David. I’m not a Queenslander but this attempt to marginalise people deserves an inquiry to identify the person/ratbag issuing the directive.

      250

    • #
      David Maddison

      A thinking person might require that, if deemed necessary all, all volunteers should be subject to a RAT test because the vaxxed also spread the ‘Rona.

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    • #
      PeterS

      Will the person who gave the command also refuse a life saving surgeon from operating on him if that surgeon was not vaccinated? Perhaps that person should refuse and collect the Darwin award.

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  • #
    John Michelmore

    Unvaxxed volunteer to person drowning “Do you wish to be saved I’m not vaccinated? ” Person drowning , “I think I would prefer to drown”

    260

    • #
      David Maddison

      I’d say a good proportion of the Sheeple would actually rather drown than have to be touched by one of the unvaxxed…

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      el+gordo

      Extraordinary, they didn’t mention AGW.

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    • #
      David Maddison

      Wow! I wonder how that one managed to slip through?

      It is surely a mistake. Could someone please archive that page (see link in my post above)? I can’t do it from my phone.

      And they only mentioned “climate change” once in the article but that was in reference to an architect that “mitigates” buildings against supposed c.c..

      A shocking but pleasing outbreak of common sense from Their ABC.

      60

  • #
    Dave

    If they were truly community minded , they would be vaccinated. Would they, if possible, get themselves unvaxed from their childhood ones ?.

    219

    • #
      KP

      Why would being community minded affect their vaccination status Dave? The vaccinations don’t prevent the spread of Covid.

      If you argue that unvaxxed overwhelm hospitals, then you would have to ban everything that contributes to hospitalisation- drinking alcohol, eating too much food, not getting enough exercise, having the wrong genes, the list would be endless,there are plenty of people who would love to tell everyone else how to live!

      Should those with ‘the wrong genes’ who have children liable to go to hospital be allowed to breed?

      Your community might be one that you would not want to live in!

      As for getting unvaxxed, did the children give fully informed consent beforehand? Are you counting neutralised bacterial vaccinations the same as lab-generated RNA ones? Its a very murky area to get into.

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  • #
    John Connor II

    So..how much liability will the govt take for not telling people the truth about climate change, global cooling, solar cycle 25 and extreme weather changes and history?
    Maybe people can’t avoid property damage but at least they’ll be informed and prepared as much as possible for the ramp-up in extreme weather that’s coming.
    Will insurance companies even offer cover when these weather events become common?

    60

    • #
      OldOzzie

      Doomed Planet

      Roads, Rates, Rubbish and Climate Ratbaggery

      2nd March 2022 Tony Thomas

      To date, 108 of 537 Australian local government councils have declared “climate emergencies”. This initiative involves saving the planet, as distinct from attending to councils’ tradition role of concerning themselves primarily with the three Rs of local government: roads, rates and rubbish. A green activist site, Climate Emergency Declaration and Mobilisation In Action (CEDAMIA) tracks all these councils on a spreadsheet. Globally, there the group boasts 2000-plus councils.

      The Port Macquarie-Hastings City Council’s “Climate Emergency” declaration of March 2021 is listed at CEDAMIA’s site but the sad compilers have put a delete-line through it with the note, “rescinded 16 February 2022.”

      The rescinding was, like the 1914 deed of Gavrilo Princip in Sarajevo, a shot heard around the world. Or anyway, enjoyed on sceptic blogs in both hemispheres. I hope it will inspire other councillors to push back against the Greens who have used their dark arts (“How Green Zealots Take Over Councils”) to marshall council assets to stoke their own socialist ambitions.

      Getting back to Port Macquarie, Cr Sharon Griffiths is a third-termer and 30-year small business owner. She sponsored the rescission motion and is (incredibly) quoted by the ABC, saying, “I actually don’t believe that climate change is as big as an issue as people think it is really.” She has teamed with Mayor Pinson, a self-styled “community warrior” who became the town’s first female mayor in 2017. Pinson runs the newly-elected “Team Pinson” ginger group of five on the nine-member council. She’s been on holidays and sadly incommunicado.

      Phoned by Quadrant, Griffiths seemed impressed to discover her global fame. She said there hasn’t been much hostile feedback about the rescission because Emergency! supporters had their say when the Council Agenda was published. “Those people always present the same climate story and information, with nothing substantial underneath,” she says. “We’re a conservative area and we don’t like waste of council resources [on climate activity].” She’s hostile to council pursuing climate concerns about “what might be”, rather than urgent practical matters. In particular, the council should be making good on tens of millions of dollars in damage from the 2021 floods, she says. (Our interview was just before the latest floods). The ABC quoted Mayor Pinson on the so-called Emergency!: “Yes, we note that we’ve had these natural disasters but the world has had natural disasters. They’ve had it over the history of man and these things unfortunately do happen.”

      20

  • #
    Neville

    AGAIN just for the stupid true BELIEVERS, here’s the BOM cyclone trend since 1970 for the Aussie region and NOTE that the recent 2015 to ’16 season was the only year WITHOUT a SEVERE cyclone since 1970.
    Please WAKE UP to their climate change BS and fra-d.

    http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/climatology/trends.shtml

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    • #

      nice use of caps nEVILle

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    • #
      Dave

      Nev, If you had read the second last paragraph you wouldn’t have posted that piece of cherry picking. Science obligates you to READ ALL THE EVIDENCE.

      06

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      • #
        Neville

        GEEEEZZZZ Dave you can BELIEVE their future models or projections for con merchants but don’t include me.
        I’m showing you an accurate lower trend from the BOM for the last 51 years and I couldn’t care less about their MAKE BELIEVE nonsense or their delusional fairy tales.
        When will you wake up?

        20

        • #
          Dave

          I’ve just highlighted your terminal confirmation bias and come back with your beliefs.
          If your ‘evidence’ floats , stick it in a property researched paper for review like a good scientist.

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          • #
            Neville

            AGAIN you’re wrong Dave. I only checked past DATA and in this case BOM cyclone data since 1970.
            As I said I couldn’t care less what they THINK will happen by 2050 or whatever.
            Again learn to think for yourself and check real data, not their silly future delusions.
            BTW check my links below for the 2 ABC Catalyst stories about higher past SLs + super cyclones and again proves we are very lucky to live in the modern era.

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            • #
              Dave

              That’s great Nev, do you really think scientists haven’t considered it ??, be sure to include it in your paper , minus the shouting please.

              02

      • #
        Strop

        Dave, are you referring to the second last paragraph above the graph? Or the second last one on the page? The latter about storm surges seems inconsequential to counting the number of cyclones. So I assume you don’t mean the second last on the page.

        The “second last” above the graph reads:

        The time series of analysed tropical cyclone activity in the Australian region (south of the equator; 90-160°E) show that the total number of cyclones appears to have decreased. However, there was a change to the definition for tropical cyclones in 1978 which led to some systems which would previously have been classified as tropical cyclones instead being considered sub-tropical systems. This contributes somewhat to the apparent decline in total numbers.

        The BOM only says the change in definition “somewhat” contributes. This suggests there would still be a decline trend even if the definition hadn’t changed. Otherwise the BOM would state the decline is due to a change in definition.

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      Simon

      You may have noticed that this rain event wasn’t caused by a cyclone. The proximate cause is a massive blocking high in the Tasman Sea. There is some evidence that lower temperature differentials create a wavier jet stream causing weather systems to get stuck. Also note that atmospheric water content increases by 7% per for every 1°C increase in temperature.

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          Peter Fitzroy

          And what intensified the La Niña’s, and for extra points what increases the severity of the typhoons?

          The answer is extra energy, both in the oceans and in the atmosphere.

          C02, H2O and the other greenhouse gases are the reason why there is extra energy (in the form of heat) in the oceans and air.

          Humans are the (and physical science confirms) reason for this increase in C02, and the cascading increase in the other greenhouse gasses

          see

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            b.nice

            “C02, H2O and the other greenhouse gases are the reason “

            I would love to see you produce some scientific evidence for that nonsense statement.

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              • #
                b.nice

                That’s not science, that’s unproven supposition and baseless short term correlations.

                Its really just non-scientific nonsense to fool those not versed in real science, and in your case has obviously succeeded.

                You really have to do better than that.

                CO2 does not and can not “trap” energy. Measurements show that any energy intercepted is thermalised and released through the atmospheric window

                Basic physics says that net energy transfer in the atmosphere is controlled by pressure and temperature gradients, and there is no measured evidence I can find anywhere, nor any rational physics, that shows CO2 affecting the temperature gradient or pressure gradients in the atmosphere.

                And as for the ludicrous bottle experiment.. it neglects the very fact that the atmosphere is not an enclosed bottle. Have you never heard of convection?

                Thank you for the links though, they make me realise how non-scientific people can be so easily fooled.

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                b.nice

                The second video is even more of a joke, releasing compressed CO2 into a closed cylinder.

                Is that all it takes to fool you !

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            el+gordo

            ‘And what intensified the La Niña …’

            When the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation is in its negative phase we should expect more back to back La Nina.

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            b.nice

            ” what increases the severity of the typhoons”

            Since that isn’t happening… Nothing !

            https://climatlas.com/tropical/global_running_ace.png

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        BruceC

        The proximate cause is a massive blocking high in the Tasman Sea.

        And back-to-back A La Niña’s.

        The rain events that flooded southern QLD and much of NSW between 1860-64 weren’t caused by cyclones either. In fact, the rain events back then, which were possibly bigger than this weeks events, were caused by the exact same reason as today … back-to-back A La Niña’s.

        CO2 had nuttin’ to do with it.

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        el+gordo

        ‘The proximate cause is a massive blocking high in the Tasman Sea.’

        True, is the blocking high a global warming signal?

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    Oh, please don’t tell me that the under headline of the news clipping (under the one with image of the 1943 fiftieth anniversary) uses the word ….. unprecedented. (and then again, at the start of the text)

    See, journalists DID know ‘big words’, even back then!

    Tony.

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      PeterPetrum

      Yes, I noticed that too, Tony. Glad the word “unprecedented” can be used at least twice for the same thing. I believe there is a grammatical term for that – “redundancy” comes to mind.

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    Michael Spencer

    But! But! Joanne – don’t you know that there are no accurate Australian records prior to 1910? (‘Experts’ say ….)

    So, it’s clear that those old newspaper reports and photographs must be forgeries produced by 21s Century ‘climate deniers’ in order to corrupt our children’s perfectly justifiable fear of the deadly consequences of their breathing out ‘carbon [sic] pollution’.

    Hmmm ….. Perhaps those who perceive this to be the cause of the present ‘unprecedented’ floods should set an example and hold their breaths indefinitely. That should fix the problem …. /Sarc Off/

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    Neville

    Willis tries to unravel the BS and fr-ud involved in their so called dangerous SLR.
    Certainly satellite data is seriously corrupted by fiddling with the data and GLOBAL MSL measured at the tide gauges is about 1.65 mm a year or about 165 mm a century. That’s about 6.6 inches by 2122.
    This is also what Prof Humlum has found for years in his annual reports.
    And the SLR over the previous century was about 8 inches or 200 mm. WAKEY, WAKEY and we have to ask AGAIN, where’s their so called Climate Emergency?

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/03/02/the-uneasy-sea/

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    KP

    pfft.. Those flood levels haven’t been homogenised by experienced people in Govt Ministries and then recalibrated with reference to Central Australia yet!

    In 12months the latest will have been the greatest!

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    Ronin

    I notice that it took until 1988 before someone was mentioned drowning at a creek crossing, now it happens all the time, something happened to society around 1989.

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    Neville

    Here I’ll link again to Ken Stewart’s recent post on numerous SL studies for the Aussie area and of course SLs were much higher in the past.
    Even their ABC Catalyst agree and showed how SLs at Sydney were 1.5 metres higher 4,000 years ago. Ken has found numerous studies that prove our climate today is cooler compared to earlier periods during these numerous studies.

    https://kenskingdom.wordpress.com/2021/08/23/the-worlds-biggest-thermometer/

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    Neville

    Here’s the ABC Catalyst Narrabeen Man story and mention of 1.5 metre higher SLs at Sydney 4,000 years ago. See transcript.

    https://www.abc.net.au/catalyst/narrabeen-man/11010512

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      STJOHNOFGRAFTON

      The ABC’s dreaming! I used to surf with Narrabeen Man and Collaroy Man. Narrabeen Man, a big wave fanatic, wiped out on a monster wave at Narrabeen Beach in 1978 BC. He aparently died of head injuries when he hit the bottom. We buried him with what was left of his board in a deep hole high up in the the sand dunes. After a brief but moving eulogy, Collaroy Man, me and Narabeen Man’s mates went to the Royal Antler, Narrabeen for the wake. Here’s the thing, though. Who has got more plausible deniability: Me, the honourable STJOG, or their ABC?

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    Neville

    Here’s Dr Johnathon Nott and his ABC Catalyst story of the SUPER cyclones that used to hit the QLD coast hundreds of years ago. Don’t forget co2 levels were then a perfect 280 ppm. Or so we’re told.
    In fact the last one hit QLD about 200 years ago and today would devastate the coastline.
    He went back about 6,000 years and found evidence for dozens of these super cyclones hitting the QLD coast up to the early 1800s.

    https://www.abc.net.au/catalyst/super-cyclone/11006020

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    BruceC

    The ABCNews are now reporting that the CBD of Casino is flooding for the first time EVER in history!

    To bad their ‘journalists’ don’t do any research as it took me less then 5 minutes to find out Casino was flooded in 1863 and again in 1864.

    “We have [Casino] been visited by the largest flood ever witnessed by white men … The water rose at a rapid rate – the last twelve hours two feet an hour… I believe that is ten or twelve feet higher than the largest ever seen,” reported a correspondent for Clarence and Richmond Examiner and New England Advertiser after heavy rain fell in February 1863.

    The district again endured extensive flooding the following year in 1864 along with towns further south including Tamworth and Maitland.

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    STJOHNOFGRAFTON

    Unvaxxed and sandbag dilemma? Here’s a workaround: the unvaxxed can work from home filling sandbags. Logistics? Run a sand and bag shuttle service of masked drivers between unvaxxed volunteers and the flood site. That way the fright-bat health authorities can benefit from selfless volunteers but still have the insane luxury of being incurable gormless idiots.

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      KP

      Bathurst track hillclimb on Saturday, but you can only go if you are double-vaxxed as you might infect someone as you drive past.. or the double-vaxxed might give you a cold.. No mention of those millions in NSW who have already had it and are Covid-proof for two years, they don’t exist.

      Never been any brains at Motorsport Australia!

      It may be until never for us to get our freedoms back, shit like this will be buried in the small print regulations for so many things and never get removed or questioned.

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    Ross

    So, ultimately you get to the discussion of dams and their utility and why we as a nation have stopped building them. Dams store water for industrial, domestic and agricultural use. So they perform that function. But, more importantly they are built to avert the problems of flooding- flood mitigation. Unfortunately with the influence of the climatistas, government both state and federal have swallowed whole the theory that Climate change will reduce rainfall and so dams wont fill. The Tim Flannery proclamation. Trouble is, we haven’t seen long term drying trends even since he made that ridiculous statement. But we need dams for flood mitigation and we need big dams to prevent flooding damage to big populated areas. We cant increase outflows in anticipation of big rainfall events because that, in fact, exacerbates local flooding and could potentially make the problem worse. Hence, we need more dams or increased capacity for present dams. So where were the grown ups in the room to present the argument that dams are essential for flood mitigation 20-30 years ago? Desal plants only solve half the problem and so far those expensive white elephants haven’t had major use.

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      Philip

      Relax. Greens now want to build dams everywhere for the hydro power storage concept. There will be dams in every gully.

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        Ross

        Don’t worry, I’m relaxed. For starters I don’t live on a floodplain. I hadn’t heard the Greens have said that. I remain very sceptical 🙂

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    Philip

    At my very working class work place, it’s noticeable how these folks are coming to actually believe the weather is our new enemy…. because of climate change. The idea really is starting to take hold. Some are quite shocked by the flooding and now declare “this is what the weather does now”. They see a cycle in that these “1 in 100 year floods happen regularly now, remember 2011 ? That was only 11 years ago you know “. Very convincing stuff.

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    Philip

    Remember the drought period, when in distress they’d look at the rainfall by year chart and look at years with high rainfall in delight, remembering when the climate was good, “look at how much rain they used to get but now its just drought, because of climate change”.

    Tim Flannery was in peak drought fear propaganda mode, and we were all going to die of thirst and the land would shrivel up. Go and drive through any tableland country now and look at how productive and lush it is. There’s even good grass on granite soils. You never hear of this, the benefits, the recharging of aquifers, its brilliant.

    A big problem is appalling land planning. You always get floods, don’t build houses there, we have plenty of space, it really is quite illogical.

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      Ross

      The trouble with that TF statement, it was made during the Centennial drought. Which was really a pretend drought in a lot of ways. From an agricultural point of view those years between late 90’s and late noughties weren’t that bad. Sure, Rice production got hammered but most other enterprises did ok. There were years with autumn breaks and little follow up rain. Years with little starting rain (as an Autumn break) but not bad follow up. There was even a year that was good rain throughout but a huge frost event in early November which totalled a lot of broadacre crops. What we haven’t had for a while is a drought like 1982/3. That is, when it basically doesn’t rain the whole year on the east coast. (West Aussie was ok during 1982). We are overdue for one of those big drought events. Like 1967, 1944. They generally only last one year and the following year tends to be way above normal rainfall.

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        Philip

        I remember that 82/3 drought very well. It was bad bad, and I agree we haven’t seen that since.

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  • #

    Why are there floods?
    Because rainwater cannot drain away.
    Why can’t it flow?
    Because the rivers and rivers have not been dredged!

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      Tel

      At least in the case of the Windsor River in Sydney, there’s a narrow strip where it crosses between the mountains, and behind that the river flats are … well flat as the name suggests. Although a bit of dredging might help, you will never get sufficient pressure from the flat area to ram it at any significant speed through the mountains.

      In theory you could cut a lot of rock and widen out the choke point but that will never happen … besides, the fertility of the river flats depends on occasional flooding. It’s the thing that attracts people to farm there.

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    CHRIS

    People who don’t check whether the area they are buying property is flood-prone, deserve what they get

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    Blindsided

    Live on the high ground, farm the flat (floodplain) ground. Why cannot people and govt comprehend why they became floodplains in the first place? The flats were good farmlands to begin with e.g. the Nile River and Delta where the people relied on the annual flooding of the Nile to re-fertilise the farmland. It appears lessons still have not been learnt.

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    Geoff

    CO2 is .04 % of the atmosphere which is 40 Centimetres in 1000 metres or 20 inches app in 3300 feet of air.
    I cannot see the relation between CO2 heating up the world temperature[ climatee change]with such a small amount of CO2 in the atmosphere.
    Of the .04% , more than half is caused by natural means such as volcanoes.
    Australian CO2 emissions are reported to be 2% of man made CO2which is .8 of a centremeter.[ if all the .04% was man made:reduce that to 2 to 4 millimetersin 1000 metres of air]
    What ever Australia does to eliminate CO2 emissions here will have no effect on so called climate change caused by man.
    One thing people forget , the country side has been deforested and roads and housed built that don’t absorb water from rain.
    I feel so sorry for the people who have last their possessions through the floods. We will all pay the bill through insurance.

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