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Africa to double coal fired power by 2030

In the next ten years, Australia will close a couple of coal plants, while Africa will build 1250.

Africa is going to double its energy and almost all the increase is coming from fossil fuels. This is hard to explain, given that renewables are “free” and Africa is poor. But at the end of the decade unreliable renewables will still make less than 10% of the energy in Africa.

Thanks to the GWPF:

Fossil fuels to dominate Africa’s energy mix this decade – report

Power Engineering International 

A new study into Africa’s energy generation landscape uses a state-of-the-art machine-learning technique to analyse the pipeline of more than 2,500 planned power plants and their chances of successful commission.

African power generation, 2030, graph.

African power generation, 2030, graph.

The study predicts that in 2030, fossil fuels will account for two-thirds of all generated electricity across Africa. While an additional 18% of generation is set to come from hydro-energy projects. These have their own challenges, such as being vulnerable to an increasing number of droughts caused by climate change.

This is only the start. Most countries in Africa are not even in the race yet:

South Africa alone is forecast to add almost 40% of Africa’s total predicted new solar capacity by 2030.

Five years ago TonyfromOz looked at Niger — a nation of 17 million people and estimated that the entire country used about as much electricity as Dubbo, Australia, a town with about 40,000 residents.

As Matt Ridley says: Africa Needs To Be Rich – Rather Than Green

REFERENCE

Alova et al (2021) A machine-learning approach to predicting Africa’s electricity mix based on planned power plants and their chances of success, Nature Energy volume 6pages158–166(2021)

NASA — Africa: https://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/79000/79793/city_lights_africa_8k.jpg

9.6 out of 10 based on 63 ratings

151 comments to Africa to double coal fired power by 2030

  • #
    NoFixedAddress

    Sorry.

    I’ll believe that about the African continent about the same time as the Western do-gooders are thrown out and communism on the continent is banned.

    82

    • #
      David Wojick

      What part don’t you believe? The Chinese are very active funding new coal power in Africa. Thanks to the World(less) Bank and other green development banks, China will own much of Africa.

      They are just cloning themselves. China produces more domestic electricity from coal than the US does from all sources. China produces more juice from all sources than the US and EU combined. Powering their way to power.

      531

      • #
        Yonniestone.

        What NFA is suggesting that Africa has a history of Communist/Dictator type of government for most of its countries that differ from the China system, for China to control the actions of African armies and Cartels they will need boots on the ground so to speak, or not, it could be interesting.

        140

      • #
        Graham Richards

        There are millions of South Africans who’d love to see some new power generation in their country.
        They’re sick of 4 hours out more of blackouts every day. Government tells them it’s not a blackout. They call it load shedding. Germany, of all countries has a similar problem but they refer to “ peak smoothing” or some such BS. They don’t have enough power to go around so they have blackouts to make sure essential services & industries don’t go without. Tough shit if you’re “just” a German citizen.
        It’s Australia’s turn in the not too distant future.

        380

        • #
          David Maddison

          South Africa has plenty of proper power generation including coal and nuclear and not counting degradation of the electrical grid by solar and wind, of which they have relatively little.

          The only problem with South Africa is extremely bad and incompetent management of ESCOM, South Africa’s Electricity Supply Commission and also subsequent lack of maintenance of power infrastructure and theft of electricity or valuable recyclable materials like copper.

          190

          • #
            Ronin

            It worked fine when it was run by majority white management, but has degraded badly since the ANC came to power.

            272

            • #
              Ian

              I suspect most non-white South Africans prefer a less than perfect power supply to Apartheid.

              113

              • #
                David Maddison

                By almost any metric, non-white South Africans are far worse off today under the ANC regime than they were under apartheid, not saying apartheid was right either.

                180

              • #
                ian hilliar

                Ian, one person / one vote has never worked in tribal societies….Read some history. Or just think…..

                00

          • #
            Graham Richards

            David ,
            I think you should read this to cure the illusions about power generation in South Africa.

            https://dailyfriend.co.za/2021/04/04/in-desperation-use-powerships/

            The Daily Friend is publication of the Institute for Race Relations. Many notable writers!

            25 years ago South Africa was producing 70% of all electrical power on the African continent. ESKOM is totally bankrupt , financially, morally, technologically,
            They don’t even use the correct grade of coal in their boilers & wonder why the boiler tubes are failing every 6 months.
            The nuclear power station, Kroeberg, has only 1 turbine in working order. No spares
            & no money. Cry the beloved country!

            50

        • #
          Ross

          Already happened in Victoria 2 summers ago. Big power users such as Alcoa smelter Portland and oil refineries were told by government to power down during a very hot windless February period. Then the state experienced “managed outages” region by region. Managed outages are just rolling blackouts. Then, of course, some justification that it was necessary because of the unreliability of coal (one power plant may have had maintenance) and it’s the price we pay for Climate change. Usual nonsense.

          210

          • #
            Klem

            Where I live the temperature drops to -20c in the winter. That kind of rolling blackout climate nonsense can kill lots of people.

            To avoid this, many folks have installed wood fireplaces to avoid death. Now our government is contemplating outlawing wood fireplaces. You know, because climate.

            Government is not our friend.

            191

            • #
              James Murphy

              Given the media-approved hostility towards older people (those evil “baby boomers”), reducing their numbers could only be seen as a benefit. Andrew Cuomo’s efforts to kill a lot of people in New York nursing homes has largely gone without serious investigation, and he still has his job.

              101

            • #
              Hanrahan

              According to Reagan:

              The most terrifying words in the English language are: I’m from the government and I’m here to help.

              61

        • #
          David Maddison

          Australia’s lack of cheap and reliable coal and gas power (and no nuclear power because Australia is not “grown up” enough) is disguised by the fact that we are deindustrialising at the same time due to high renewable power prices, high taxes and high regulationss which liberates power for other uses.

          240

      • #
        NoFixedAddress

        David

        Kindly point to the Continent of Africa where the existing power stations are located and where the proposed power stations will be located.

        00

      • #
        NoFixedAddress

        To David Wojick

        They are just cloning themselves. China produces more domestic electricity from coal than the US does from all sources. China produces more juice from all sources than the US and EU combined. Powering their way to power.

        So you and The Heritage Foundation believe that China is and will rule the world.

        Good to know.

        10

      • #
        NoFixedAddress

        David Wojick

        Would you agree, or not, that the CCP regime that currently controls China is the most global environmentally destructive organization.. ever?

        71

  • #
    Kalm Keith

    Impoverished peoples around the world have traditionally burnt anything handy and combustible to give warmth and enable cooking. Local bush and grass is used along with animal dung in some places.

    The sudden jump envisioned from this basic picture to full scale electricity availability is beyond belief.

    Possibly some outside interest will arrive on Africa’s doorstep and install the system free of charge.

    No strings attached.

    Honest.

    160

  • #
    Travis T. Jones

    Obama: “Planet will boil over if people in Africa are allowed to attain air conditioning, automobiles and big houses.”

    https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/obama-planet-will-boil-over-if-young-africans-are-allowed-cars-air-conditioning-big

    Stick a fork in me, Barry, I’m done.

    220

  • #
    Peter Fitzroy

    Given that it is Chinese money which is paying for this, does this mean that China is now good?

    After all the western powers had the opportunities to do the same, but preferred the colonial exploitation way of helping Africa.

    342

    • #
      Mike Jonas

      Africa getting the reliable power it needs could have been a very good thing. If the west had any sense at all then they would have helped to achieve it. Instead, thanks partly to America’s worst president of modern times, America handed control of Africa to China. Those coal-fired power stations in Africa are for China’s benefit, not Africa’s. China builds the power stations, and Africans then find out that they have to pay for them. China ends up in total control. That’s how colonialism works nowadays.

      490

    • #
      Graham Richards

      Just wait until the Chinese have a god foothold in Africa. Exploitation will take on a totally new meaning & believe me they’re not as tolerant as Europeans. Of course we all know how tolerant they are when it comes to dissent!

      Peter, you don’t have a clue about the way the real world works!!

      291

      • #
        Richard Owen No.3

        I’m sure the Chinese will find a bit of sunny desert for the EU to build solar power plants and export the generation to Europe (at cost).

        110

      • #
        Harves

        But surely China is simply being philanthropic … West=bad. China=good.

        130

      • #
        Peter Fitzroy

        What a load. Yes China will gain influence and those loans will have to be paid back. Now tell me how the world bank works, tell me about Haiti

        The chinese fund infrastructure and it is built. The west faunds dictators and strong men and nothing is built.

        Ask any Nigerian about oil, ask Steven Donziger about what happened in Ecuador

        But China is bad, and the west is good.

        638

        • #
          Kalm Keith

          Good point.
          Unpleasant behaviour comes from unpleasant people, not necessarily any particular country.

          141

        • #
          R.B.

          over 6 million Haitians lived below the poverty line of US$2.41 per day, and more than 2.5 million fell below the extreme poverty line of US$1.12 per day.

          And has transitioned to a real democracy for the past 6 years.

          There
          Told you about Haiti.

          70

          • #
            Peter Fitzroy

            Haiti’s debt to the IDB amounts to approximately half a billion dollars with debt service payments projected by the IMF to increase in the following years. This debt ( and a lot which has been forgiven) is what keeps Haiti poor, although being a ‘protectorate’ of the USA does not help

            118

            • #
              Dave

              Amazing Haiti Peter!

              The Clinton’s had their honeymoon there in 1975!

              Bill said:

              That his understanding of God and human nature were profoundly transformed when they witnessed a voodoo ceremony in which a woman bit the head off a live chicken.

              Seems he moved on from the chicken & head!

              The Clintons raised heaps of $ (BILLIONS) to help Haiti out of the disaster Earthquake in 2010!

              They went away rich & happy while HAITI remains a ruined basketcase!

              That’s the Clintons for you!

              Emperor XI will do the same to Africa like he experimented with Hambantota in Sri Lanka and now owns it!

              And they’ll all be lauded as saviors of the poor countries!

              Wonderful people with the Monika belief in Heads!

              151

              • #
                Ronin

                Billy Bob was so impressed by the woman biting the head off the chicken that he got Monica to replicate the feat, without the biting of course.

                71

            • #
              R.B.

              Service on a debt, that the US pays, of $1.8B for a nation of 11 million is what keeps them poor?

              Guatemala is a comparable country that is still pretty poor and had a $1.8b a year tourism industry before covid.

              I’m guessing that their Peter Fitzsimmons are running the place and that is the problem.

              81

          • #
            tom0mason

            See here https://haitiantimes.com/2017/01/13/protesters-demand-clinton-foundation-to-shut-down-on-anniversary-of-haiti-earthquake/

            The ‘helpers’ of Haitian squalor was/is the UN and those nasty Democrat kleptocratic Clintons and their Demoncrat crony mates. Just search ‘Haiti Clinton’ and read about the whole vile mess.

            US$6 billion short from the Clinton Foundation, and a Haitian population of about 11 million …
            Politics for power and money that all its every been for the Democrats.

            90

        • #
          Harves

          So Peter, if China is so so so much better than the US where are all the immigrants scrambling to get to China?? Why are you not packing your bags to be part of this wonderful philanthropic country. Why are Taiwan, Hong Kong and Tibet not embracing this great benefactor who simply wants to make the world a better place?

          160

          • #

            China has a very effective immigration system.
            Illegal immigrants (in or out) may be shot on sight and their default immigration policy is NO.

            One thing China has right is ignoring climate change domestically and earning hard currency on the scientific ignorance of Western politicians. At least their climate scientists know the truth and this truth will enable world domination in the evolving global economy where the bulk of the value added to raw materials is migrating from labor to energy.

            40

        • #
          Kevin kilty

          Why even reference Steven Dozinger? He has been thoroughly discredited, and a reference to him only shows being out of touch.

          30

    • #
      Ronin

      If Africa thinks it was hard done by the colonials, just wait till China is done with them.

      160

      • #
        el gordo

        That is pure speculation and wrong, the Europeans have history in Africa. Should we start with slavery?

        The China state owned enterprises, which built the foundations for the greatest economic revolution the world has ever seen, is spearheading this strategy throughout the Third World.

        Note they always get their hands on the power stations as a starting point.

        17

        • #
          Peter Fitzroy

          Ports, bridges, critical infrastructure, it all laid out in the Belt and Road strategy.

          Soft power now is the province of the Chinese, whereas the americans use hard power on mostly unarmed people.

          118

          • #
            el gordo

            The Beijing hierarchy has a firm grip on their own people, which is not our style because we value human rights, free speech and democracy in our political culture.

            The Belt and Road will soon have competition from America, a replication model, both creating new markets by uplifting the masses. Following on from this enlightened self interest, we should expect peace and goodwill to prevail.

            06

          • #
            el gordo

            Its become a standing joke in Beijing, that if America plans to do a BRI they should begin at home.

            http://epaper.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202104/02/WS60664c1ca31099a2343551d0.html

            They think Biden is a tosser, which draws the US right into a lose coalition with a totalitarian dictatorship.

            61

            • #
              Peter Fitzroy

              Unfortunately, el gordo, the Australians do not escape chinese ridicule either

              012

              • #
                el gordo

                The Beijing mob are myopic fascists and its our duty to see that they become more democratic. This may take a little while and in the meantime there is a real danger that xenophobia may get out of control.

                Its quite clear that Beijing doesn’t believe CO2 is causing global warming and they will continue to uplift the Third World with fossil fuels.

                41

              • #
                Peter Fitzroy

                el gordo, I agree about the xenophobia, and the fact is that they are doing the heavy lifting via fossil fuels as you say. Their experience demonstrates that once you get the infrastructure built, and a quality education system, you can leverage you relative cost of labour to ignite your economic growth. While I would prefer that alternative power sources were built, I will not deny, as the west has done for centuries, the improvement that that infrastructure gives to african and asian well being

                11

              • #
                el gordo

                Renewables have to travel a hard road in sub Saharan Africa.

                https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X20304939

                00

        • #
          Lucky

          “Should we start with slavery?”

          Who introduced slavery into Africa? Not a European nation.
          Which nation led to the abolition of slavery? An empire, capital city, London.
          Which nation had a devastating civil war to end slavery in its borders? USA.

          Which nation has brought in large scale slavery of ethnic minorities to produce consumer goods? China.

          141

          • #
            el gordo

            China makes slaves of its ethnic minorities, not foreigners. It is what it is and we should stop buying anything from them.

            30

    • #
      Tilba Tilba

      Given that it is Chinese money which is paying for this, does this mean that China is now good?

      I wondered this too … something of a schizophrenic position with respect to the Mandarins of the Hidden Kingdom it seems.

      I think it’s great that the world'[s poorest are going to get more electricity, particularly if they aren’t getting screwed on the cost – upfront or over 30 years.

      15

  • #
    graham dunton

    I say good on them, but the indebtedness to china, is of some concern.
    Remember, this could have been(democratic) European investments and technology?

    80

    • #
      Klem

      Europe is under China’s heel, so most likely European investment and technology was directed somewnere else, after receiving China’s approval of course.

      20

  • #
    William Astley

    This is a good article. The Western countries are busy destroying our industries by making electricity more expensive and less reliable because we are rich enough to enable borrowing while our economies are being destroyed. Africa does not have that option.

    Ever African country is almost broke and needs some/more 24/7 electricity to enable industrialization… Sun and wind gathering is not a viable option. Germany has shown the world, the green scams just make electricity more expensive and less reliable.

    Africa will need to find the money to build coal fired and natural gas power plants because Africa needs 24/7 power to power industry or there will be starvation and riots.

    The current African population is 1.34 billion people. The African population is growing at 2.5% per year. The African population is expected to gain 300 to 400 million people, by 2030. “The 95 percent prediction interval for Africa anticipates that the population in 2030 will fall between 1.65 billion and 1.71 billion.”

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-coal-idUSKBN2A308U
    China’s new coal power plant capacity in 2020 more than three times rest of world’s: study. … China approved the construction of a further 36.9 GW of coal-fired capacity last year, three times more than a year earlier, bringing the total under construction to 88.1 GW.

    https://www.eskom.co.za/AboutElectricity/ElectricityTechnologies/Pages/Coal_Power.aspx#:~:text=South%20Africa's%20coal%20reserves%20are,years%20of%20coal%20supply%20left.

    South Africa is the only African country that has significant proven reserves of coal.

    “South Africa’s coal reserves are estimated at 53 billion tonnes, and with our present production rate there should be almost 200 years of coal supply left.”

    Nigeria, Algeria, Egypt, Tanzania, Libya and Mozambique have significant natural gas reserves.

    https://www.theafricareport.com/20712/natural-gas-africa-could-provide-20-of-global-needs-by-2025/

    “The gigantic discoveries made over the past decade in Mozambique, Tanzania, Senegal and Mauritania have revealed a total of 200 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of gas reserves, enough to supply two-thirds of current world demand for 20 years. In addition, there are 200Tcf of proven reserves in Nigeria.
    • In 2018 sub-Saharan Africa provided 10% of the global production of liquefied natural gas (LNG), equivalent to 28 million tonnes per year (mtpy).
    • Analyst Akap Energy forecasts that by 2025 this African production capacity will have increased by 150% to reach 84 mtpy.
    • That is 15 to 20% of the world market.
    Such growth will depend on investment of more than $75bn, two-thirds of which will be injected into Mozambique.”

    231

    • #
      Richard Owen No.3

      Botswana’s vast natural mineral reserves, which include an estimated 200 billion tonnes of coal, remain relatively unexploited due to poor infrastructure.

      “It is without a doubt that infrastructure and by extension railway infrastructure acts as a key enabler of economic development, a catalyst for business and a facilitator of employment creation,” says Botswana’s minister of transport and communications.

      The line from southern Botswana to South Africa has been up-graded. Planning for a longer 367km cross-border Mosetse – Kazungula – Livingstone freight line between Botswana and Zambia is also currently underway

      80

      • #
        Kalm Keith

        “says Botswana’s minister of transport and communications.”;

        from his new vacation home in the Swiss alps.

        110

        • #
          William Astley

          Wiki claims Botswana is one of the least corrupt African countries. Who wrote that article?

          Botswanans have a very high per person GDP because the country is so sparsely populated and because mining is very profitable (I cannot imagine many tourists traveling to Botswana). “A mid-sized country of just over 2.3 million people, it is one of the most sparsely populated countries in the world. About 10 percent of the population lives in the capital and largest city, Gaborone.”

          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Botswana

          “Homo sapiens had first inhabited the country over 200,000 years ago.”

          “It is bordered by South Africa to the south and southeast, Namibia to the west and north, and Zimbabwe to the northeast. Its border with Zambia to the north near Kazungula is poorly defined due to being in the midst of the Zambezi River. This border with Zambia is, at most, a few hundred metres long.[16]”

          “The economy is dominated by mining, cattle, and tourism. Botswana has a GDP (purchasing power parity) per capita of about $18,825 per year as of 2015, one of the highest in Africa.”

          10

    • #
      Ronin

      Eskom, ‘ Powering your world’…….. sometimes. LOL

      30

  • #
    David Maddison

    Western banks and the world bank won’t lend Africans money for coal power stations, only for expensive unreliable energy generation such as wind and solar.

    Therefore the Chinese will either lend them the money or donate proper coal or gas power stations.

    In either case, Africa will pay a heavy price because in return for the favour the Chinese communists will strip Africa bare of minerals, forestry, body parts of endangered species and anything else that can be removed and taken to China, including slaves.

    There are already entire Chinese towns in parts of Africa.

    The Africans have the Green Left to thank for their ongoing misery.

    Africa will not progress as long as the Left control its future via the UN and banking institutions etc..

    200

  • #
    Flok

    Meanwhile in Australia

    Released report by the Clean Energy Council
    https://assets.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/documents/resources/reports/clean-energy-australia/clean-energy-australia-report-2021.pdf

    Page 13 and 14

    Vic Cost per MW $1,713,706 Jobs per MW 1.21
    NSW Cost per MW $1,550,388 Jobs per MW 1.16
    QLD Cost per MW $1,753,823 Jobs per MW 1.32
    WA Cost per MW $5,203,608 Jobs per MW 4.80 (What?)
    SA Cost per MW $1,693,777 Jobs per MW 0.71
    NT Cost per MW $1,859,375 Jobs per MW 4.25
    Total Cost per MW $1,792,977 Jobs per MW 1.30

    One can also look at the states by elected party and smell a MW capacity rat.

    110

    • #

      Interesting link. Thanks Flok.

      WA is only installing 288MW. Not like the other states at 1.5 – 3.5GW.

      Presumably it’s a lot of small solar rooftop installations. Lost of “jobs” and not many MW.

      Because we are an islanded small grid we can’t afford to “go big” on renewables, though we appear to be stupidly trying to catch up.

      201

      • #
        Flok

        Hi Jo,
        It does not read that affordability is an issue at $5.2 per Watt compared to other states ranging from $1.5 to $1.8 per Watt. Which is still a premium price to pay for the nameplate with 1/4 of energy output.

        Segments of the report mention cutting the emissions but fails to quantify.

        Something fishy there or the report was done by a 10 grade student.

        60

  • #
    Neville

    Just a few points about Africa and their so called climate crisis/emergency/apocalypse or whatever BS you choose.

    In 1900 the population was about 120 mil life exp perhaps 30+

    In 1950 the pop was 177 mil , life exp about 36

    In 1970 the pop was 363 mil, life exp about 46

    Today 2021 pop about 1340 mil, life exp about 63.5.

    Some climate crisis since 1970, and the 53 countries of Africa inhabit the poorest continent on earth but they are much wealthier and healthier today and more are urbanised and their standard of living is improving all the time. Today their average age is about 19 and mid range Aussies about 37.

    So in the last 50 years their population has increased by nearly 1000 mil people and yet we’re supposed to be approaching the apocalypse. What a load of BS and fra-d.

    And Humans have been fully evolved for at least 200K + years ( see latest data) and in 1800 the average life exp was under 40 and today about 72 and we’ve increased by another 6.8 billion over the last 221 years. The world pop has increased by 4.1 billion people since 1970 and even the UN expects everyone to be 3.5 times richer by 2100 or 3.6 times richer if we were stupid enough to waste money on their so called mitigation BS and fra-d con trick. ( see Lomborg, Shellenberger, Koonin etc) See Our World in Data.

    So will we ever wake up to their apocalypse/crisis/ emergency/ existential threat nonsense?

    210

  • #
    Neville

    So why do we need to have net zero emissions by 2040 or ’50 and how is this possible?
    Well Pres Biden the leader of the most powerful country tells us in this video that we are facing an existential threat for humans and he actually mentions this a number of times in a couple of minutes. He also tells us we can “feel this in our bones” , but I seem to have missed that feeling.
    I certainly understand the data since 1800, 1900, 1950, 1970, 1990 etc and of course the human race is today much healthier, wealthier and has a life expectancy of about 72 years. All 7.8 bn of us and that average is made up of Africa ( 64) China (76) wealthy countries like Australia ( 83) etc.
    And the Pres of the UN loves the EXIST….. word and always seems to use it in any number of interviews about SLR or whatever.
    But even if we get all our electricity ( mission impossible) from dirty, toxic S&W etc how does that help us with the remaining 70%+ ( at least) of our energy needs until 2050 or 2100?
    Don’t forget these loonies are telling us that the human race is threatened because of that extra 0.0065% of co2 in our atmosphere. Remember Dr Hansen and Bill McKibben etc ( 350.dot org) tell us we must reduce co2 levels to a “safe 350 ppm”.
    So at present we have about 415 ppm less 350 ppm= 65 ppm and that’s about 0.0065% too much co2 in our atmosphere according to Dr Hansen.
    But don’t worry because China, India+ developing countries are happily building hundreds of new coal power stns and couldn’t care less about any of Biden’s, delusional, stupid BS and fra-d.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0wXe-GanTh0

    150

    • #
      Dave in the States

      Biden is innumerate. Every time he tries to present numbers it’s a Laurel and Hardy skit. His puppet masters are laughing all the way to bank. He has no idea of numbers even before we factor in his dementia.

      That and he thoroughly enjoys giving the 3 out of 5 voters who didn’t vote for him the middle finger.

      40

  • #
    Neville

    Here’s Dr Rosling’s 200 countries in 200 years BBC video and covers 1810 to about 2010.
    It takes just 4 minutes and clearly shows how Humans have moved from POOR and SICK to wealthy and healthy, because of the use of FOSSIL FUELS.
    OH and Matt Ridley has checked the data and we’re still improving since 2010.
    So how is any of this possible if we’re facing dopey Biden’s “EXISTENTIAL threat”?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbkSRLYSojo

    141

  • #

    Huh! As I have so often said, when it comes to electrical power generation, there’s just not enough hours in a day.

    I wrote that article about Niger back in 2014, seven years ago, and as is always the case ….. moved on. Today is probably the first time I have revisited the article.

    That single proposed coal fired plant for Niger that caused all the green heads to explode was scaled back, and instead of the single 600MW unit, only a 200MW Unit was constructed.

    So, at that time, Niger was generating around 300GWH of electrical power.

    Now here we are seven years later.

    With the addition of that single coal fired Unit, Niger has doubled its power generation.

    It now generates 600GWH of power a year.

    The population of Niger has now increased from the 2014 level of 17 Million people to around 23 Million, so a little less than the whole of Australia, which now consumes 204TWH of power a year, so here in Australia, we consume 340 times the power of Niger.

    So back in 2014, Niger generated around the same power as the City of Dubbo consumes.

    Now Niger generates around the same power as consumed by the residents of Dubbo, and now, thanks to those humungous truckloads of extra power, you can add in same power consumption as nearby Orange to the total of Dubbo.

    So Niger generates the same power as consumed by those 80,000 people in Dubbo and Orange ….. for a little less population than the whole of Australia.

    Oh, and back in 2014 when I wrote that article about Niger, there were calls to ramp up the use of renewable power of choice, wind and solar power in those African Countries.

    Well, that has indeed happened in just that one Country Niger They still have no wind plants there at all, but there has been solar panels put in, so that now, Niger generates almost, wait for it, almost ONE percent of their total power generation from solar panels.

    How refreshing to see those altruistic people proposing wind and solar for Countries like this back in 2014 have put their money where their mouths were and ramped up soooooooo considerably the use of solar power in these Countries. (and must I really insert /sarc here)

    The construction of that large number of coal fired power plants in those African Countries will not even make a dent in the access to electrical power for most Africans in the homes they live in.

    As I mentioned in that Niger article, the Capital city Niamey, well, that’s where nearly all of that electrical power is being consumed, in the central area of that city. The vast area that is the rest of Niger is virtually without electrical power at all, something that here in Australia, we take so utterly for granted.

    Tony.

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      William Astley

      Tony,

      I like your analogues to illustrate the magnitude of the power supply/power consumption differences Niger vs Australia. The other issue is the Niger and almost all other African countries population is growing at 2.5% per year. Population is more or less stable in the Western countries. And most people have never seen vast shanty cities.

      People in the Western countries do not understand the connection between 24/7 electric power and industry/standard of life and what happens when population grows at 2.5%. There are no movies about what will happen. There is no analysis. There is no discussion.

      Almost all businesses/industry/modern cities need 24/7 electricity to exist. Africa cannot industrialize without 24/7 electricity.

      The problem is most people in the Western countries have not experienced life in a country with regular weekly blackouts. All of the large businesses require diesel backup or they would not exist. 24/7 electricity is almost impossible without a power supply. Sun and wind gathering is not a power supply.

      From a lay person’s standpoint… Fake Engineering reports (which are sort of just political propaganda) look just like real engineering reports. Real engineering reports evaluate/compare top alternatives, have pros/cons, realistic(honest) estimates/projections/engineering/accounting calculations.

      https://assets.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/documents/resources/reports/clean-energy-australia/clean-energy-australia-report-2021.pdf

      “As I mentioned in that Niger article, the Capital city Niamey, well, that’s where nearly all of that electrical power is being consumed, in the central area of that city.”

      And electricity is only available in the central area of capital cities and large cities …. Is true for almost every African country.

      The African cities are surrounded by vast shanty towns where there is no or spoty electricity.

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    David Maddison

    In Niger they are wasting money building a 20MW peak solar “power plant”. Of course, it will only reach that capacity for a few hours around midday and only if the panels are kept free of dust (and you can bet they won’t be).

    It is being build at the site of a 100MW diesel power station but other references I have read say it is 80MW.

    And the solar installation will produce nothing at night when it is most needed.

    In Third World countries the number one priorities for electricity are night time domestic lighting so children can study and mothers and wives cook, electricity for cooking and electricity for refrigeration of vaccines etc..

    Lighting usually involves kerosene lamps which many can’t afford and they blow up or catch fire and cooking involves The “free renewable resource” of wood burned inside which leads to deforestation and respiratory diseases.

    But when did the Left ever care about anyone except for themselves?

    https://www.afrik21.africa/en/niger-construction-of-the-gorou-banda-pv-solar-plant-will-finally-begin/

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    David Maddison

    A problem with coal burning power stations in South Africa (apart from labour disputes, management incompetence and lack of maintenance) is that the coal in that area is poor quality and contains a high level of ash and is erosive to boiler tubes and other equipment in the combustion stream. Boiler equipment has to be properly designed to accommodate this.

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    Neville

    Their so called carbon or co2 offsets are just more BS and fra-dulent nonsense and at a cost of many more trillions $.

    I find it incredible that otherwise intelligent people are fooled by the fra-dulent carbon offsets market and obviously others involved are in it only for the money. And other scumbags literally laugh about it as they rake in the dough.

    Who could forget some of these con merchants who laughed out loud during the Planet of the Humans video? Just fits the old saying “laughing all the way to the bank” and I’m sure China and other developing countries have many belly laughs to share.

    Way back I mentioned the Bernie Madoff scandal /fra-d/ponzi scheme that was quickly solved by Maths genius Harry Markopolos, but wasn’t acted on by the US SEC etc for a further 9 years and by then more financial ruin and untold damage to many more people.
    But all the different fra-dulent con merchants and schemes involved in their so called Climate crisis are a lot more complicated and involves govts of all persuasions across the globe. Of course today the fra-dulent schemes involve trillions $ and yet we’ve hardly started to have a serious conversation about this in our media.

    Here’s a few paragraphs about the carbon offsets BS and fra-d from “The Conversation” article. Andrew Bolt covered this topic years ago, but nobody today seems to have the nerve to take this on, although it is just more BS and fra-d and this time literally makes money out of the air we breathe. And much laughter, illusion and fantasies as they sell their con tricks.
    https://theconversation.com/carbon-offsets-offer-a-fantasy-of-capitalism-without-crises-155730

    “Its failures are already accounted for.”

    “To help explain the new hype around carbon offsetting and its return to a central position in climate policy, I argue in a new paper in the journal Environmental Politics that one of the reasons carbon offsetting continues is because of fantasy. According to a psychoanalytic approach to the critique of ideology – which has been advanced prominently by the philosopher Slavoj Žižek – fantasy is a means by which ideology takes its failures into account, in advance.

    Fantasy helps explain why knowledge about intractable problems may not stop carbon offsetting: its failures are already accounted for within the ideological formation. To research this further, I linked psychoanalytic theory to transcripts of interviews that I conducted with 65 practitioners involved with carbon offset markets. My analysis suggests that many of those involved recognise, at different levels, the gap between the spectacular portrayals of carbon offsetting and its deficiencies in practice. Awareness of this gap is managed through cynical forms of reasoning and knowledge disavowal.
    Problems are known – but suppressed

    Cynical reasoning involves knowledge that one is perpetuating an illusion or a problem, but doing it anyway. It sometimes involves laughter which mocks the predicament of the self. For example, one person selling offsets told me they only partly believe in carbon offsetting, and then laughed. Knowledge disavowal involves knowing about the existence of problems, but suppressing that knowledge. Those involved in carbon offsetting need not laugh at themselves all the time – disavowal also works for them.

    Cynical reasoning and disavowal are not very disruptive to the social fantasy, which circulates through markets populated by experts who proclaim that offsets are genuine and legitimate. Figures of authority in the offset market – people with claims to expertise who talk about “high-quality” offsetting – reinforce fantasy. Doubts about offsetting are calmed, because even if one person does not (fully) believe, someone else will do it for them, in a process that repeats.

    Furthermore, fantasy shapes our desires, so this account helps explain the emotions, enthusiasm and hype. On some level, people want to believe in carbon offsetting because it offers to rekindle capitalism’s promise that we can enjoy consumerism without being too concerned about ecological crisis, by delivering a seductive story of power and status in which somebody else cleans up the mess. Even if you are already an offset sceptic, we had better recognise that this fantasy runs deep”.

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    NoFixedAddress

    Jo.

    I am disgusted with this GWPF press release.

    When you read the thing it is based on an Oxford University “study” that turns out to be MORE computer modelling!

    A new study into Africa’s energy generation landscape uses a state-of-the-art machine-learning technique to analyse the pipeline of more than 2,500 planned power plants and their chances of successful commission.

    Crap on steroids.

    And I would challenge anyone to tell me where the “power stations” on the African Continent actually exist now and where these magical 2,500 future power stations will be built.

    Get communism out of Africa.

    (and kindly don’t distract the whole argument with just the country called South Africa)

    [Duplicate]

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      NoFixedAddress

      My apologies for duplicate.

      When I see the words “oxford” and “modelling” I get a bit ‘wuhani’!

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    Aloha! Under the compassionate Clinton in 1994! More than 800,000 murdered by political genocide using machetes! Easily stopped or prevented by phone calls or USS Intrepid! The CIA knew … Clinton response … crickets! UN response … crickets!

    Climate change? $1.7tril and forever debt of every child in America. Once again I ask what is the ROI on climate change? Two less hurricanes in 2021? 25% more Arctic ice?

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    NoFixedAddress

    I am disgusted with this GWPF press release.

    When you read the thing it is based on an Oxford University “study” that turns out to be MORE computer modelling!

    A new study into Africa’s energy generation landscape uses a state-of-the-art machine-learning technique to analyse the pipeline of more than 2,500 planned power plants and their chances of successful commission.

    And I would challenge anyone to tell me where the “power stations” on the African Continent actually exist now and where these magical 2,500 future power stations will be built.

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      NoFixedAddress, I don’t think this is as serious as a hidden modelling “result” in climate change. All future predictions are models of some sort.

      I was aware of the role of modelling when I posted this. Since they were also predicting half the plants would fail to get off the ground, that seemed ball park reasonable. Given the need for electricity, and the Chinese funding, it may even happen.
      Africans probably need a magnitude more plants.

      Possibly we both could have emphasized that these were just projections of future builds, though I assumed everyone would be somewhat skeptical of all projections in Africa.

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        Peter Fitzroy

        So this is a ‘good’ model, caveats included, and anything with climate is a ‘bad’ model, and the arbiter is not an expert. Now I understand

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        NoFixedAddress

        Thanks Jo and I understand.

        Refer my post at 16.1 above.

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      William Astley

      NoFixedAddress,
      I believe the authors of this study care about Africans and understand population growth/reality economics … perhaps more than CAGW.

      I think we do not understand population grow, as it is slower in Western countries.

      The African population is expected to gain 300 to 400 million people, by 2030. “The 95 percent prediction interval for Africa anticipates that the population in 2030 will fall between 1.65 billion and 1.71 billion.”

      Obviously the new Africans will require some electrical power and will need to find jobs and will want to live in houses/have possessions. This is the 21st century.

      I hear your concerns. The study was done by a neutral party, analyzed actual past African history of power plant construction, to determine the predicted future power plant construction in Africa. This is not a guess or a biased agenda driven effort to push a scenario.

      Modeling, in this case, removes human biases. It is a logical approach to predict the future.

      Also…. if the EU and US continue on the path to get to zero CO2 emissions, more high energy production will move to Africa, to the countries where there is local natural gas/port coal access and safe land to construct power plants and other plants. And there will be new support cities built around those sites. That is the only solution possible for Africa.

      Africa has super cheap labour and inadequate/no infrastructure and countries that have large amounts of natural gas or access to imported coal. I see foreign controlled/protected super large industrial parks in Africa which will provide long term security/law and order to enable large power plants to be built and large companies to come to build and operate other plants in Africa, to take advantage of the cheap labour and to avoid mass starvation.

      The study was published in Nature Energy.

      In this study we built a machine-learning model that demonstrates high accuracy in predicting power-generation project failure and success using the largest dataset on historic and planned power plants available for Africa, combined with country-level characteristics.

      We found that the most relevant factors for successful commissioning of past projects are at plant level: capacity, fuel, ownership and connection type.

      We applied the trained model to predict the realization of the current project pipeline.

      Contrary to rapid transition scenarios, our results show that the share of non-hydro renewables in electricity generation is likely to remain below 10% in 2030, despite total generation more than doubling.

      These findings point to high carbon lock-in risks for Africa, unless a rapid decarbonization shock occurs leading to large-scale cancellation of the fossil fuel plants currently in the pipeline.

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        NoFixedAddress

        William A

        I think that ‘study’ is complete gobbldygook.

        The Western World being ashamed and shamed by ‘colonialism’ have ceded the African Continent to communism.

        The American Democratic Political Party were and are the greatest former and modern day supporters of slavery.

        The current slaves The American Democratic Political Party sourcing out of South America, and have been for some time.

        Nigerian Americans are among the top income earning ‘group’ in America.

        The smart ones have left the communist continent.

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    NoFixedAddress

    I would challenge anyone to tell me where the “power stations” on the African Continent actually exist now and where these magical 2,500 future power stations will be built.

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      David Maddison

      There is a list here (link below) but don’t be fooled by the numbers, many are very small and the list probably falsely describes useless wind and solar installations as “power stations” as well.

      https://powerafrica.opendataforafrica.org/

      And I agree. There is no way Africa is going to build 2500 power stations unless the Chinese do it for them, which they probably will in return for free access to minerals, forestry, body parts of endangered species and slaves.

      Africa, like Australia, hasn’t got the political will to build these. Unlike Australia they don’t have the management skills either.

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        NoFixedAddress

        Thank you for that link David.

        Have bookmarked it.

        47 Coal Fired Power Stations!

        Existing Power Plants
        Gas 246
        Solar 156
        Hydro 417
        Fuel Oil 445
        Coal 47
        Wind 72
        Nuclear 3
        Geothermal 11
        Other 133

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        GD

        The West gave many African nations the skills and infrastructure to bring their populations out of poverty. Some of those African nations expelled the Westerners and are now, once again, descending into poverty.

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    Richard Ilfeld

    In 1950 people in the West were concerned about poverty in Africa.
    In 1960 people in the West were concerned about poverty in Africa.
    In 1970 people in the West were concerned about poverty in Africa.
    In 1980 people in the West were concerned about poverty in Africa.
    In 1990 people in the West were concerned about poverty in Africa.
    In 2000 people in the West were concerned about poverty in Africa.
    In 2010 people in the West were concerned about poverty in Africa.
    In 2020 people in the West were concerned about poverty in Africa.

    Some problems are hard to deal with. “The West” has extracted some
    exploitable materials from the continent, but there isn’t a great deal of
    evidence that solving the problem of African poverty is high on our list.

    I don’t expect the neo-colonial Chinese to be much different.

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      NoFixedAddress

      In 2030 people in the West will be too concerned about their poverty to worry about poverty in Africa.

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      Neville

      My point about Africa is that it proves that we haven’t got a C crisis or dopey Biden’s so called EXISTENTIAL threat at all.
      If our poorest continent can gain 998 million people since 1970 and life exp increases from 46 to 63, you obviously haven’t got an EXISTENTIAL threat or C CRISIS.
      Just think, it took the Human race about 200,000+ years to reach 1 billion people living on the planet.
      But in just the last 50 years Africa alone has added that number and all are healthier and wealthier than the ENTIRE HUMAN RACE just 200 years ago.
      DUH, does anyone NOT SEE A PROBLEM with the Biden Donkey’s EXISTENTIAL threat/ BS and fra-d con trick?

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    I like Tom Fiddaman’s work – and his modelling tools – scenario modelling and analysis. https://metasd.com/

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    Neville

    Just a quick reminder about the world data since 1970.
    Today we have added another 4.1 bn people and today life exp is 72, but in 1970 life exp was about 58 for the world’s 3.7 bn people.
    And today people are obviously much wealthier and healthier.
    So where is Biden’s EXISTENTIAL THREAT?
    Don’t forget that Matt Ridley has found further improvement as well since 2010.
    How is this possible? And yet our DOPEY pollies want to waste endless trillions $ on this non problem? DUH?

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      Ross

      Neville, some additional facts of how well mankind is doing.

      SINCE 1992
      * Global supplies of clean water have increased. In 1990, 76% of the world’s population had reasonable access to drinking water. By 2010 that had increased to 89%, according to a report from the Food and Agricultural Organization at the U.N.
      * The per-capita supply of fish worldwide climbed roughly 30% over those years.
      * World hunger and poverty have dropped dramatically. The share of the global population that is undernourished declined more than 40% between 1990 and 2015, U.N. data show. The share of the global population living in abject poverty went down by more than 35%.
      * Land has become far more productive, not less. In fact, the share of land devoted to agriculture hasn’t budged since 1990, according to the U.N. report. Think about that for a minute: We are able to feed 34% more people, and feed them better than ever, using the same amount of land!
      * In the U.S. at least, air pollution is down since 1992 for every single pollutant the EPA measures. And US CO2 emissions are down since the mid-1990s, thanks not to government regulations, but because of the fracking innovation.
      * That massive deforestation predicted by scientists? The amount of forest land in the world declined by just 3% from 1990 to 2010, the U.N. report says. (In the U.S., it’s increased.)
      * How about the warning that we were cutting off new medicines by destroying species? The pharmaceutical industry is in a golden age of innovation, with more than 5,000 new treatments in the production pipeline

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        Neville

        Thanks for that data Ross and I’m well aware of most of it.
        I just tried to sort of roll it all into one with life exp and pop etc,but you’ve done a much more detailed job.
        BTW the world is becoming far more urbanised and only a tiny no of farmers produce our food and fibre today.
        In wealthy OECD countries that urban pop is 80%+, but even poorer countries are changing decade by decade.
        Yet the L W religious fanatics tell us we only have a short time to live and we’ve almost reached the APOCALYPSE?
        And they follow stupid donkeys like Biden and hang on his every word as some sort of revelation from above? And the clueless lefties just love the Pope and his BS and nonsense.

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          Ross

          No worries,Neville. I’m particularly proud of that that 4th point, because that’s the industry I work in. Agriculture. That extra production in food has come from innovation in a whole host of areas. A lot of it new technology, but also just doing things smarter. Government policy has had minimal effects. In relation to Africa, as soon as they experience similar levels of technology (and 24/7 energy to more of their people) they will be able to feed themselves better and then birth rates will decrease. But it is a worry that China are involved so much. Western nations should also be still taking an active role, not actively discouraging fossil fuel use, as an example.

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        Tilba Tilba

        Neville, some additional facts of how well mankind is doing.

        Well … I guess most of us can cherry-pick statistics that suit the arguments one is trying to make. I’m certainly not going to do it in order to “demonstrate” that increasing human population is causing a wide range of problems and pressure-points.

        But just three observations:

        1. While I think global warming alarmism is not the right political | educational approach, it is encouraging that a whole generation of young people are growing up far more aware of climate issues, human pressure on the planet, the vulnerability of many species and ecosystems, the threats of pollution, what reuse and recycle can be, and much else

        2. President Biden is talking about the future … just because there hasn’t been a climate crisis yet doesn’t mean that there will never be one – the logic is highly faulty.

        3. And finally, the increase in population is worrisome enough, but if an increasing proportion of that enormous population lives wealthier, more resource-consuming lives, then pressure on the planet and its ecosystems goes up dramatically.

        This of course is not an argument to suggest that while the rich in the West continue to snack high up the food chain, that the masses of poor people in Africa, India, China, and South America should stay at the hippie level or worse. Some Cornucopians try to use such arguments, and believe that technological advances, water harvesting, better agriculture, and so on, can keep the party going forever.

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          Neville

          Tilba I’m certainly not advocating for higher human population, but I’m just stating the obvious data over the last 200+ years to prove my point.
          BTW better education is the answer, particularly for girls. See Rosling’s work etc and how the rate of pop increase has been slowing over the last 55 years.
          Hard to believe I know, but it is the case particularly in wealthy countries, but also in parts of the developing world.
          Africa has an average age ( Aussies mid range 37) of about 19 today and with better education their future rate of pop increase will come down. Likewise India.
          Don’t forget that the UN forecasts that the average person will be 3.5 times richer by 2100 than we are today and if mitigated for climate only 0.1 times more.
          See Lomborg, Shellenberger etc and It’s hard to understand why any sane person would want to waste endless trillions $ on this nonsense for a guaranteed ZERO return.

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            Tilba Tilba

            Don’t forget that the UN forecasts that the average person will be 3.5 times richer by 2100 than we are today and if mitigated for climate only 0.1 times more.

            Good points. I agree entirely that the education of girls is hugely important. The liberation of young women from everything they currently suffer is so important!

            In terms of “3.5 times richer”, my first reaction is that it is a pointless, meaningless average figure (the type you get in UN Reports) – is it some some sort of world-wide average? A middle-class white family in Dallas Texas living on say $120,000 per year – are they going to be 3.5 times better off? I can’t see how the US economy this century is going to power such an increase.

            But if a family in Bolivia on $12,000 can get 3.5 times, that will be great. If a family in Mali on $3,000 can get ten times, that will be even greater.

            The main issue is often the whole point of threads here … is the pursuit of material improvement in lives over the next 50 years going to be undertaken totally oblivious to global warming?

            Those who believe that global warming (to the extent that it is happening, and to the extent that it is caused by increasing CO2 in the atmosphere) is not significantly a result of human activity have no problem with massive developments that materially alleviate poverty around the world, especially in Africa.

            Those who believe that not only is Global Warming a serious issue but is being overwhelmingly caused by human industrial activity since say 1850 – do not believe that lifting so much of the world out of poverty can occur without a global warming context. These are very big questions.

            My view is that if a few more strategic coal-fired power stations in Africa lift people out of poverty – especially if it allows young girls to do homework at night – then go for it. Another 500 power stations in Guangdong Province so they can make more shiny object rubbish for Walmart in America … not so keen.

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              Kalm Keith

              “especially if it allows young girls to do homework at night ”

              What about the boys?

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                Hanrahan

                Pity TT said “girls” and not “children”. Let’s go with “kids”.

                The lives of the young are improved with cheap, reliable grid power. It is a strain on impoverished families to send their kids to school. When they come home there would be chores. How much better if the meal can be cooked cleanly rather than over a dung fire and then after the meal the school kids can do a little study and the parents watch TV instead of “doing what comes naturally”

                I have made assumptions, I have never been to Sub-Saharan Africa but I believe “real” electricity is the greatest gift you can give to the impoverished. We are not birds, we are capable of productive activity after the sun has set.

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                Tilba Tilba

                Is there a nit you won’t pick? We were discussing the issue of girls’ education, and the comment was naturally in response to that. Yes the boys can read and write at night too.

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              Hanrahan

              my first reaction is that it is a pointless, meaningless average figure (the type you get in UN Reports) – is it some some sort of world-wide average?

              Do you believe in “World average temperatures”? That’s an even more nebulous number

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                Tilba Tilba

                If the trend is clearly upwards then the purported nebulosity doesn’t matter much – you’re still comparing like with like.

                I notice that they have just recorded 420 ppm of CO2 on Mauna Loa … the issue isn’t going away.

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    Neville

    Here Shellenberger tries to awaken people to the real data about deaths from extreme weather events a century ago and today. Here’s the full link and like Lomborg he certainly proves his case.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2019/11/25/why-everything-they-say-about-climate-change-is-wrong/?sh=2e75fd2412d6

    “Last January, after climate scientists criticized Rep. Ocasio-Cortez for saying the world would end in 12 years, her spokesperson said “We can quibble about the phraseology, whether it’s existential or cataclysmic.” He added, “We’re seeing lots of [climate change-related] problems that are already impacting lives.”

    “That last part may be true, but it’s also true that economic development has made us less vulnerable, which is why there was a 99.7% decline in the death toll from natural disasters since its peak in 1931″.

    In 1931, 3.7 million people died from natural disasters. In 2018, just 11,000 did. And that decline occurred over a period when the global population quadrupled”.

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      Tilba Tilba

      “Last January, after climate scientists criticized Rep. Ocasio-Cortez for saying the world would end in 12 years, her spokesperson said “We can quibble about the phraseology, whether it’s existential or cataclysmic.”

      Yes – I am a sane, sober, person with a pretty good education, who thinks that human activity at an industrial scale is pumping far too much CO2 into the atmosphere, and that global warming is accelerating as a result.

      Having that (majority mainstream) view is no big deal, but when the likes of AOC – who has a lot of clout despite her young age and little real-world experience – says the world is going to end in 12 years … well, it is just egregious and pointless. And people like me are highly embarrassed.

      I agree that many things have got better – but it does not change the global warming curve, and all the fuzzies about longer lifespans and bigger beans and less whatevers and more whatsits – are good, but just a diversion.

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        Ronin

        AOC is such a [Snip]crazy unit that is doing her backers no favours whatsoever.
        Sure the world could end in 2 years time if it gets hit by an Everest sized asteroid, but nothing is guaranteed, it’s just chance, I sure would like to know where she gets her information from.

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          Hanrahan

          AOC is doing exactly what her backers expect of her. Cenk Uygur, a big backer, is as crazy as she is.

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    Grant

    OK Call me stupid, but the real point for this forum shouldn’t be who is paying for the uplift in vitally necessary electrical generation capacity in Africa it is the technology choice. If we look at other technologies that have been developed in the West and then much later moved to LDC’s in a big way like telephony we don’t see LDCs investing in wall mounted telephones linked by wires to exchanges, no they have bypassed the entire wire and poles option and moved directly to wireless cell based mobile technologies for both telephony and data. WHY?? because the wireless technology is cheaper and just as or even more capable. Now if electricity generation via the latest wind or solar technologies was truly cheaper than thermal energy coal / gas based technology as we are told it is everyday by the mainstream media, then LDC’s should skip the whole coal/gas fired stage and go straight to the “better” cheaper higher tech option, to do anything else makes no economic or engineering sense right? However, when real money as opposed to other people’s money is involved they don’t choose wind or solar so therefore the renewable is cheaper argument is extremely dubious. We have to assume that no one willingly spends more than they need to in order to achieve a given goal, so if a 100 GWH of capacity is required then surely you would opt for the cheapest means of delivering that capacity?

    Alarmist economists will say, “but that’s just because they don’t realise that CO2 is actually evil and they don’t price in the externality correctly so they make the wrong choice..” While that argument holds up if we talk about unfiltered smoke stacks releasing harmful particulates and causing acid rain etc. it’s not so clear for CO2. My view is that as long as the “CO2 is evil” argument is unsupported by robust empirical evidence and relies on manufactured data like the infamous hockey stick this isn’t a valid argument, and like my other pet hate “organic food is better” it is a faith based belief not a scientific or logical fact. Indeed the empirical evidence regarding the externalities of CO2 would lead to the conclusion that on balance the emissions over the last 80 years or so have had a net global benefit via increased food production and overall greening of the planet.

    As a famous Australian politician once said, you can always rely on people’s self interest to understand their decision making, I think the same argument holds true here LDC’s invest in Coal and Gas for their energy requirements because it best fits their interests, by being the lowest cost alternative!

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      Grant, regarding the role of this forum. Yes and No. We care about the technology, but in terms of the science of civilizations we very much also care who is paying for Africa’s infrastructure. Does anyone think the CCP is doing it to help Africans?

      Given the hostile bad behaviour of the CCP it is obvious that China will use its influence to help China. That may easily come at the expense of Africans. Eg, China buys votes at the UN, or owns WHO chiefs who say “keep the borders open to let in CCP bioweapons”. How many Africans died because of that one?

      Yes, we wish the West were helping Africans (as they did for decades past, even if not without flaws.)

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      Peter Fitzroy

      Re empirical evidence
      http://www.pas.va/content/dam/accademia/pdf/acta22/acta22-ramanathan.pdf
      or
      type this into your search engine “empirical evidence global warming”
      or
      continue your current research IDK

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        Kalm Keith

        There is absolutely no scientific mechanism involving human origin CO2 or natural origin CO2 which creates, produces or involves the liberation of “additional” heat or energy into the atmosphere.

        Even if CO2 was completely absent from the atmosphere the other atmospheric gases would carry on with no difference in the end result atmospheric temperature.

        The CAGW CONCEPT is an unscientific, despicable impost on the people of this planet who are not party to the financial benefits resulting.

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        el gordo

        Observation outweighs empirical theory.

        https://notrickszone.com/2021/04/04/hamburg-germany-seeing-more-easter-snow-lately-than-in-1960s-when-co2-was-much-lower/

        There is this 60 year cycle and AGW theory falsified.

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          Peter Fitzroy

          Hmm, It seems that your model only allows one degree of freedom, and that is the weather can only go in one direction. News flash, it is a chaotic system, we are increasing energy in that system, everything gets more extreme Both at the hot end (fires around the world) and cold (record low temps, snow). this was all predicted in the ’70’s

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          • #
            el gordo

            Do you have a link?

            From my understanding, extremes and unseasonal weather are global cooling signals. A meandering jet stream has the power to do this, CO2 does not.

            Its a chaotic system but as time goes by we should be able to unravel the mysteries of natural variability. I’m convinced the oceanic oscillations are major players, along with the sun, moon and gas giants.

            The extra energy humans are creating cannot change the balance, we are at the end of the Holocene and its a pity fossil fuels don’t cause warming.

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          • #
            RickWill

            Peter F falsely claimed:
            we are increasing energy in that system

            This is utter rubbish. The ocean warm pools all regulating to 30C as they did at least 10 million years ago:
            https://earth.nullschool.net/#2021/04/04/0500Z/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp/orthographic=-266.46,-8.77,376/loc=59.176,-3.281

            At lactic currently does not have any warm pool reaching 30C regulated limit.

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            • #
              el gordo

              Do you know the energy source of the warm pool?

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              • #
                RickWill

                Yes – the Sun. The temperature has to get to 32C before the net radiation input goes negative.

                The warm pools draw high level moist air from cooler surrounding water. During cloudburst, that water precipitates and adds to the cooling or temperature regulation. The maximum heat input occurs at 28C. Those zones have less cloud because the water is drawn away.

                Taking the Pacific as an example, cool water west of South America will have air above holding 20mm TPW around 100W. By the time that air reaches the 150W it will have over 50mm TPW and the surface temperature above 28C. Most heat is taken in at 28C. As the air converges to the warm pools it will reach maximum TPW and heat uptake is dropping off because of more persistent cloud formation.

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            Kalm Keith

            Do you have a link?

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            • #
              Kalm Keith

              And, as for “degrees of freedom”, there have always been many: to start with; up, down, backwards and forwards, and you guessed it, left and right.
              Additionally a member of this blog recently described the multipurpose one ; Slantindicular, which gives almost infinite DOFs.

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              • #
                Kalm Keith

                Sorry, that should have been, DsOF.
                But I’m not really.
                Just studying the art of blog clogging from the masters here.

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    NoFixedAddress

    Just in case some folk haven’t been following the whole Africa – China story go and search the following phrase and read some of the stories,

    chinese attitude to africans

    I use DuckDuckGo and the very first story is,

    https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/15/chinas-racism-is-wrecking-its-success-in-africa/

    or how about
    https://thediplomat.com/2015/01/china-embracing-africa-but-not-africans/

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      el gordo

      ‘To improve people-to-people relations, the Chinese government could start by encouraging Chinese companies and state-owned enterprises in Africa to hire 20-30 percent of their workforce locally.’

      Its the only way forward. otherwise BRI is unsustainable.

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    NoFixedAddress

    And when did

    a state-of-the-art machine-learning technique

    replace discerning chicken entrails?

    Seems like a regressive step for oxford who accurately predicted deaths from mad-cow disease and wuhan bat deaths.

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    dp

    Good for them – they absolutely need reliable and inexpensive energy. Maybe they can repurpose some of the fossil fuel hardware the geniuses in Oz are decommissioning.

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    Phillip Charles Sweeney

    Africa is a great coal export opportunity for Australia.

    Currently, only 0.5% of coal exports go to Africa – compared to over 60% to Japan, China and South Korea.

    Furthermore, natural CO2 increases in the atmosphere (as well as mankind’s minor contribution) are causing a greening of the Sarah.

    Low cost and reliable electricity will allow improved sanitation and cleaner water supplies – which while greatly reduce infant and child mortality in Africa.

    There is much to love about coal.

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    Rupert Ashford

    And China are buying their way into South Africa to set up “autonomous” economic zones where China buy up land, build their own economic corridor with mining etc. and build their own coal-fired power plants for their exclusive use with Chinese money and Chinese workers where the common African gets nothing except the privilege to get kicked off their land. And I bet these plants will not be counted as part of the Chinese output of CO2 by the IPCC cheer squad for “how far China has come to contribute to the global goals”.

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    CHRIS

    Africa = catch up. The potential of Africa to provide their citizens with the basic necessities of life is unlimited (just like India and Asia). I wonder if idiots like Turnbull and Flannery are vaguely aware of this (probably not).

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