JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


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Weekend Unthreaded

8.5 out of 10 based on 33 ratings

328 comments to Weekend Unthreaded

  • #

    Sometimes I wonder what is going to happen when the public finds out that wind power generation is the disaster that it actually is, that Billions have been spent on a useless source of reliable power.

    After years now of collecting the data on a daily basis, not only has it NOT got better with improved technology, or with more of them being constructed, but the situation is now actually worse.

    There’s now 8132MW of Nameplate from 67 wind plants and around 4400 individual huge towers, with 62.3% of all of them in that concentrated area of S.E. South Australia and Central Western Victoria.

    That’s 8132MW, the equivalent Nameplate of four large scale coal fired power plants. (one plant is 2000MW+ with four Units at each plant)

    Now while that figure of 8132MW is the total Nameplate, it has NEVER generated that total, and in fact, has never even got close. It has only ever been higher than 5000MW twice, yep just two times, and each time it was just over that 5000MW mark, because it has not even made 5100MW. Each of those two times was for just ONE five minute recording period, That 5030MW all time high in May of 2020 was at a Capacity Factor (CF) of 72%. That same day also resulted in the highest total power delivery of 105.96GWH, and that was at a daily average of 4415MW, and that was at a CF of 63.43%, with barely eight days in the last two and a half years over that 60% CF mark.

    The year round average from that 8132MW is 2400MW at a CF of 29.5%.

    So, while the Nameplate is the equivalent of four large scale coal fired plants, its actual power delivery is not much more than from one of those coal fired plants.

    If those dismally pitiful figures are not enough, far and away the worst thing of all is the wild swings in power delivery, and while you think that this intermittency is perhaps on a sometime daily basis, I’m talking of swings in the vicinity of 2000MW ….. virtually EVERY DAY.

    This is now something that has become apparent over the last six Months, and you only see something like this if you are looking at and taking that data on that daily basis that I am.

    What is now happening is that for four to five days a week, (sometimes more, very few weeks less than four days a week) that swing between the low for the day and the high is usually up around that 2000MW mark, no matter what the minimum gets down to.

    So that 2000MW swing is a variation of between 70% and 80% of all power delivery from wind generation.

    It has become more apparent now because more and more wind plants have been constructed in that South Australia and Victoria area where they all are now. So, contrary to what we were told that the more we put in, then intermittency would lessen, it is in fact the exact opposite, it is greater in scale for intermittency.

    Also, what is becoming increasingly more apparent is that wind generation does the opposite of what overall power consumption does. As overall power consumption rises across the day, wind generation falls away, and more often than not, now, wind is around its low for the day as overall power consumption is at its highest. Wind is highest usually between 9PM and 4AM, and then falls away across the day, rising slowly in the late afternoon/early evening.

    Wind power supporters ‘bray’ at their loudest when one coal fired Unit goes off line, loudly proclaiming that they are now totally unreliable, and yet, here we have wind swinging by 2000MW on a daily basis ….. and that’s the equivalent of FOUR coal fired Units, and if that happened with coal fired power, they would be screaming it at the top of their voices.

    Now while wind swings by around 2000MW, you can just see supporters pointing to (just) coal fired power and ‘braying’ that it swings by up to 5000MW. However, while true, that’s from a base of 13000MW to a peak of 18000MW, a swing of around 30% tops compared to 70%+ for that swing in wind generation. Also, as I mentioned, wind falls away as consumption rises, and coal fired power follows consumption exactly across the day, both up and down.

    Will you ever read any of this, or hear about it?

    Well, no, would be my guess.

    It just doesn’t fit the narrative.

    Let me tell you this though. Just to show people what they actually look like, if someone were to construct just one single recent technology wind tower in the central CBD of any of the State Capital Cities, there would be a crowd of thousands standing around the base looking up to the 45 stories to the hub, with the blade tip a further 20 stories higher than that….. every single day, mouths wide open, thinking that they had no idea what they looked like. It doesn’t even need the blades to be turning, just have them locked. And you want to know the truth. It would not get approval to be constructed there in the first place.

    Now, back to the first line I wrote.

    It doesn’t matter, because NO ONE will ever find out what an unmitigated failure wind power really is.

    Tony

    1062

    • #
      tonyb

      For wind, surely you can also substitute the word ‘Solar’?

      If its cloudy and dull its cloudy and dull. If its night its night. No matter how many solar panels you erect it won’t change those basic facts.

      In Britain we have long periods during the winter when high pressure is parked over us. In summer that would invariably bring warm sunny weather. In winter it is often the opposite , days of overcast and windless weather. Looking in my weather diary it averages 2 or 3 weeks per winter and many more days when it might be overcast but it is breezy, or it is bright but windless.

      Obviously peak consumer demand is during cold winter nights and if you haven’t got solar or wind energy then that shortfall in supply has to come from somewhere. Either a power cut, importing it, if available, or….well unless we can build far bigger batteries than I am aware is possible, we will have a power shortfall.

      Some leading acolytes of the left, Shellenberger, Moore and Amber lights have belatedly realised this fact and now support nuclear, for which they are ostracised.

      Forget coal-its reputation won’t be salvaged whilst we have the current generation of dreamy green politicians in charge .

      And how much impact does either of our countries have on CO2? Francis Bacon had the answer;

      “IT WAS prettily devised of AEsop, The fly sat upon the axle-tree of the chariot wheel, and said, What a dust do I raise! So are there some vain persons, that whatsoever goeth alone, or moveth upon greater means, if they have never so little hand in it, they think it is they that carry it.”

      463

      • #
        OldOzzie

        While searching for a pool chemical cleaner alternative to Wet & Forget that I remembered seeing on a forum a couple of years back, what came up was problems with Lichen on Solar Panels

        Can Lichen Be Removed From Solar Panels?

        Yes, but removing lichen from solar panel is not a straightforward as one might think. Glass may feel very smooth to touch, but is in fact, pitted and very rough when put under a microscope. Lichen makes the most of this and attaches itself into the pits in the glass. Because of the way it forms a strong bond with the glass, conventional panel cleaning methods, both manual and machine, do not remove lichen. The only way to remove lichen, as mentioned earlier, is by total destruction, be that removing the lichen by hand or by chemical.

        If chemical removal is not your preferred method, it may be that we need to remove the lichen by hand. This is the most labour-intensive option and as a result, is the most expensive.

        In conclusion:

        . Lichen will grow on solar panels if left uncleaned
        . Lichen binds strongly to the glass and total destruction of the lichen is the only cure
        . Preventing lichen growth is better and more cost effective than trying to remove lichen once it has set in
        . Removing lichen can be a time consuming and costly process

        PS Yes I did find Pool Formula to Wet & Forget

        Quick update one year on. Fantastic result using my home made mix. Pavers all looking like new again. Not a quick fix but a cheap, easy and effective one.

        My Mix: Add 1 Tablespoon of washing soda to a 10L water can and fill with water. Stir in 200ml of Green Blaster Algaecide (Bunnings $16). Apply lightly (to minimize run-off) over 20-25 sq meters. Let that sit for 10 minutes and repeat. That’s it. Sit back and watch your pavers self clean over the next 12 months. Brilliant. Works out to less than $20 per 100 sq meters and beats the hell out of pressure spraying.

        210

        • #
          robert rosicka

          Thanks old Aussie must try this .

          71

        • #
          TdeF

          Try sodium hypochlorite, pool cleaner, chlorine, commercial standard cheap bulk bleach. $1 should do it. Be careful, alkali is as dangerous as acid to skin. Now it is being sold in Bunnings as tile cleaner, $14. Ha. It’s the same stuff. Also old plastic garden furniture, anything which has gone black. It is not dirt, it is mould/lichen/fungus/algae. And chlorine removes it in minutes. A light broom. Wash away.

          140

        • #
          skeptocynic

          @OldOzzie; @TdeF:

          Thanks for these. Do they clean concrete?

          60

          • #
            Tilba Tilba

            I haven’t lived in Darwin for 15 years, but when we did, concrete and pavers regularly went black with mould … we used bulk hydrochloric acid (much diluted) to clean it all off … worked well – scrub lightly with a broom then wash off with the hose.

            62

            • #
              OldOzzie

              Diluted HCL is what Bricklayers use for Brick Cleaning

              30

              • #
                Tilba Tilba

                Some people used a gurney (Kärcher etc), but to make it work properly you had to be pretty close, and it tended to pit the driveway, and especially the pavers.

                We used one on the fibro walls however (goodness knows if we were liberating asbestos particles by doing so!)

                20

          • #
            TdeF

            I used to clean with Karcher high pressure system, mechanical removal. Worked, but it took an hour. Chlorine, acid, chemical cleaning this takes very little time and no scrubbing and no real cost. I expect concrete, tiles, plastic. Lichen can stick to anything if it can stick to solar panels. Just be very careful with splashes to skin, eyes especially and keep children and pets far away. Expect holes in clothes.

            Besides, if you buy bulk bleach in Bunnings, it will cost no more than $2 to find out if it will do the job.

            70

        • #
          Yarpos

          Doesnt sound like a great mix for those of us on tank water. When i clean panels i have to do some prep in draining pipes and diverting tank inlets, and i just use dishwashing liquid for the usual grime.

          20

          • #
            OldOzzie

            Introducing Aquacomb

            Smarter water management

            Aquacomb is more than just a water tank. It’s a clever system of capturing and conserving water whilst making sure that you don’t lose valuable space around your home.

            The beauty of the Aquacomb innovation is in its simplicity. Aquacomb is placed in your building or landscape structure freeing up space normally lost when using traditional water tanks.

            How it works

            Aquacomb comprises a series of interconnected storage pods which are housed wholly within concrete slabs or under any hard covered surface.

            Unlike other rainwater tanks, this unique water harvesting system can be designed into any type of slab construction and is especially suited to waffle pod slabs used in housing.

            Aquacomb can be combined into an all-in-one water management system for both stormwater (detention) and rainwater (retention).

            10

          • #
            OldOzzie

            2021 mouse plague: ‘Horrifying’ photo of mice caught in NSW water tank

            A disgusting image has revealed the grim reality of the mouse plague afflicting NSW’s regional areas.

            A “gut-wrenching” photo has captured the far-reaching impact of the mouse plague striking the state’s regions, with its stomach-churning contents enough to prompt a public health warning.

            A photo of at least a dozen dead mice caught in the filter of a family’s water tank – which supplies their drinking water has highlighted the very real health issues that can come from the onslaught of rodents running wild in the regions.

            Louise Hennessy, of Elong Elong near Dubbo, made the gruesome discovery after checking the water tank following heavy rain on Thursday.

            “It was gut-wrenching and horrifying,” Ms Hennessy told The Daily Telegraph, adding the “stink” of the dead mice was bad enough that she washed her clothes immediately after.

            A paramedic for 23 years, Ms Hennessy said it “takes a lot” to make her feel ill – although the decaying rodents in her drinking water nearly did it.

            It prompted her to call Health NSW, who gave Ms Hennessy advice on how to disinfect her water tank, the sole drinking water for the household.

            40

    • #

      Thank you for an interesting article, in the form of a comment.

      The only explanation I can come up with to explain why leftists do the things they do, including their beloved windmills and solar panels, is to quote the famous American comedian Groucho Marx:

      “Politics is the art of looking for trouble,
      finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly,
      and applying the wrong remedies.”

      440

    • #
      StephenP

      In the UK we have just had 10 days with negligible wind generations.
      How do we make up for the outage when we are totally on solar and wind, with batteries as backup?
      The batteries would be flat, so how long to recharge them?
      Who has first call on the electricity generated once the wind starts blowing?

      360

      • #
        hasbeen

        How long, & how hard to restart a mostly black grid?

        80

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        Worse if lithium batteries which hate constant discharge to low voltages which develop a low voltage memory which kills them….

        So now the batteries wont charge ….dead grid by design..

        90

    • #
      Ted1

      Tony, the commentariat has been bombarding us with the (fake) news that “renewables” are now cheaper than coal.

      No doubt they have figures to back their claims up. So, where are these figures?

      While you would expect that nobody could be that stupid, I suspect that their calculations might have included the cross subsidisation twice, fistly as evidence of higher cost for coal, and again as a lowering of the price for “renewables”, ignoring that this factor is a political imposition.

      As for coal’s 5,000 mw fluctuation, this is wholly demand driven, whereas wind’s fluctuation is wholly driven by failure to supply.

      And how much of coal’s 5,000 mw goes to cover wind’s fluctuation? This is a huge inefficiency for coal, which should be billed to wind, not coal.

      In these calculations coal should be billed at the marginal cost before political interference, because that is the product that has been foregone to feather bed renewables.

      390

    • #
      David Wojick

      It is not true that no one will read about it. I just read about it (in your comment) and so have lots of people. More generally there are a lot of people who think wind is a bad plan. Witness Trump’s great joke: “Honey I want to read tonight, is the wind blowing?”

      Put another way, Tony, as you use the term, the “public” does not exist. It is all about fractions, who is in them, and how loud they are. The demographics of belief and power.

      Thus I doubt it will end as cleanly as you suggest. At the moment we should see what happens in Texas. People suffered. The regulators are saying the $18 billion in huge electric bills is legitimate because the pricing system worked as designed. Combined this may be enough to finally make something happen.

      Let’s keep pushing for sanity.

      431

    • #
      ivan

      Tony, I think we all know the guaranteed output from wind and solar is ZERO, something non of the subsidy farmers will ever admit to and they will never disclose the output for a given length of future time.

      320

    • #
      Robber

      Meanwhile, in the windy State of SA, at 7.30pm on Friday March 12, to meet an electricity demand of 1750 MW, wind delivered 63 MW (from a nameplate capacity of 2,142 MW) the big battery 22 MW, solar .06 MW (midday peak 1,200 MW), Vic imports 376 MW, diesel 307 MW, and gas 980 MW.
      Is this any way to run a critical system?

      360

    • #
      William Astley

      The year round average, full power out, from that wind turbine nameplate in Australia of 8132MW is only 2400MW at a CF of 29.5%.

      Excellent summary Tony. What you found applies to every country.

      Australia wind farm capacity factor 29.5% of nameplate rating is close to the best wind farm capacity factor, as compared to other countries.

      In Europe wind turbines have been installed where there is insufficient wind and solar panels in cloud regions, which explains why German’s total capacity factor for green energy (sun and wind combined) is less than 20% of nameplate rating.

      And the wind turbines wear out and must be de-rate at 12 to 15 years by 30% to 50% to protect against turbine blade failure and replaced at 20 to 25 years. The energy to build wind farms and to remove wind farms, roads to wind farms, power lines run to wind farms, and so on. Is not included in the CO2/energy output calculations.

      Germany has installed sufficient sun and wind gathering to meet German’s total energy needs if the German engineers had or could buy magic batteries, that store energy for months and are free.

      Obviously as there are no magic batteries, Germany cheats by exporting half of their wind base electricity to other countries who then return hydrocarbon or nuclear energy.

      https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/12/21/germanys-green-transition-has-hit-a-brick-wall/

      Magic Battery Hydrogen.

      I see there are crazy plans to produce hydrogen (Australia, Japan, Germany, US) and then to store the hydrogen in salt caverns and then to burn the hydrogen mixed with natural gas in a specially designed turbine to work….

      The energy economics of the ‘hydrogen’ green scam magic battery is a follows.

      1) The wind farms produce 30% of their nameplate rating.

      2) The surplus wind electricity that cannot be used electric energy will be converted into hydrogen (ball park) 30% efficiency

      3) The hydrogen will be pump into and out of salt caverns and then burned in a single pass turbine that is 37% efficient.

      30% x 30% x 37% means only 3.3% of the nameplate energy from the wind farm can be stored and then converted back into electricity.

      So, 30 green energy wasteful wind turbines must be installed to get the nameplate energy of one wind turbine, if the wind electricity is stored as hydrogen and then converted back into electricity. That is pathetical. It is pathetic that countries are spending money on a scheme that will never work.

      Obviously, hydrogen storage does not work because too much wasteful, inefficient, green energy is wasted.

      https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/01/how-salt-caverns-may-trigger-11-trillion-hydrogen-energy-boom-.html

      The storage facility would initially have enough energy to power 150,000 households for one year. Scheduled to be operational by 2025, the first phase of the Advanced Clean Energy Storage project will provide 150,000 MWh of renewable power storage capacity, nearly 150 times the current U.S. installed lithium-ion battery storage base, according to Mitsubishi Power.

      The project will also help address a problem with renewable energy production: fossil-based energy must be used immediately because grids lack storage capacity, which can mean curtailment of renewables in times of low demand. Having large-scale renewable energy reserves on tap can accelerate the shift to clean power. If former Vice President Joe Biden is elected president next month, he may funnel up to $1.7 trillion over 10 years into measures to boost renewables and accelerate the adoption of electric vehicles.

      220

      • #
        David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

        But William,
        Our CSIRO is going to produce “Green Hydrogen” which will surely have all those characteristics you call “magic. Surely?
        Cheers
        Dave B

        150

        • #
        • #
          OldOzzie

          Forrest to turn Fortescue green by 2030

          Andrew Forrest has doubled down on his ambitions to turn Fortescue Metals Group green with a commitment to being carbon neutral in just nine years that involves the company becoming a major producer of green hydrogen on top of its iron ore operations.

          Australia’s richest man said on Monday that Fortescue revised target was operational carbon neutrality by 2030, brought forward by 10 years, and well ahead of the 2050 targets set by iron ore mining rivals Rio Tinto and BHP.

          To achieve the target Fortescue will develop green electricity, green hydrogen and green ammonia projects in Australia through its wholly owned subsidiary Fortescue Future Industries.

          Dr Forrest said Fortescue remained committed to its iron ore business but predicted it could one day be dwarfed by the company’s green energy operations.

          The Fortescue chairman, founder and major shareholder, said the company was committed to demonstrating green hydrogen’s economic value in large scale operations.

          “We have joined the global battle to defeat climate change,” he said. “We are trialling and demonstrating green hydrogen technologies in global-scale commercial environments, while also rapidly evolving into a green hydrogen and electricity producer of similar scale.

          “Our commitment to demonstrate green hydrogen’s economic value in world-scale operations, and become a major energy exporter, while implementing the considerable facilities to support both, means that Fortescue has emerged not simply as a thought-leader and investor, but uniquely as an executor of major green hydrogen projects.”

          Green hydrogen and direct green electricity has the potential to eliminate fossil fuels from supply chains.

          — Forestecue Metals Group chairman Andrew Forrest

          Dr Fortescue said Fortescue’s aim was to provide two “missing links” in the climate change battle by creating both the demand and the supply of green hydrogen.

          “Due to its high energy performance and environmental neutrality, green hydrogen and direct green electricity has the potential to eliminate fossil fuels from supply chains,” he said.

          “Once established, these advances will also substantially reduce Fortescue’s operating costs.”

          Dr Forrest and a Fortescue team, that included deputy chief executive Julie Shuttleworth, travelled the world through the height of the pandemic last year in a bid to secure key hydro and other renewable energy assets for Fortescue.

          The company has since committed 10 per cent of future profits towards FFI projects, a pledge that could pump more than $1 billion a year into the clean energy venture expected to eventually involve multi-billion dollar investments.

          00

        • #
          dp

          It will have to magic because hydrogen power is a net consumer of energy and that consumed energy has to come from somewhere. Same as with any stored energy.

          10

      • #
        Matthew

        The fools promoting hydrogen as a storage medium obviously have no idea of what they are talking about, I have worked with H2 in an industrial setting and it is a difficult product to handle. Because its molecule is so small, it will pass through almost anything, it certainly leaks through gaskets, flanges, valves, control equipment and safety valves, it has a very wide flammable range, (compared to LPG, natural gas, petrol fumes).
        In other words, it goes bang very easily, a la, Hindenberg and the Space shuttle.

        340

        • #
          William Astley

          Matthew speaks the truth. There is zero chance there will be fleets of trucks and ships transporting hydrogen liquid hydrogen. Hydrogen fill-up station for cars. Not going to happen. This is just a recycled dead scam.

          Liquid hydrogen is extraordinary energy expensive to create and extraordinary dangerous to store and to gasify, as compared to NGL which itself is dangerous.

          Hydrogen is not the fuel of the future. Hydrogen is a scam which Zombie governments are going to spend money on.

          Real tests, not models, where required to convince the public that NGL transportation and storage was safe…. A failure of a liquid hydrogen cooling system will result in explosive tank failure and a space shuttle like explosion.

          “Care in tests with LH2 pools is strongly advised, since ignition will be very fast and may result in an exploding fire ball or BLEVE (boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion).”

          On a small scale, local plants may use electrolysis of water to make hydrogen gas an energy store and fuel. The problems start to arise upon expanding the scale of production, storage and transport when the economy of large scale at 10,000 to 100,000 m3 is required to enable the use of liquid hydrogen as a large-scale energy store and working fuel.

          At this time, LH2 in bulk quantity presents extremely hazardous properties as a medium for energy storage in the public domain.

          Any effort to store and/or ship bulk liquid hydrogen is unsafe, and should be terminated immediately, before any serious explosive accidents occur. The collective hazards present such a high risk that a minor spill could easily escalate into a major catastrophe, with many casualties and loss of the ship.
          Comparing LH2 with LNG….

          …For example, one major hazard with handling large quantities of hydrogen is the extreme wide range of its flammability limit in air from four percent up to 75 percent.

          Tests need to be carried out to demonstrate the flammability of liquid pools and gas leaks of hydrogen under working and emergency conditions. Such tests have been carried out on LNG pools and NG leaks, long before large LNG tankers were commissioned.

          In practice, LNG pools have proved surprisingly difficult to ignite.

          Care in tests with LH2 pools is strongly advised, since ignition will be very fast and may result in an exploding fire ball or BLEVE (boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion).

          250

          • #
            Matthew

            William, I’m certainly glad there is someone else who knows something about their ‘magical H2’. Another thing, unless H2 is combusted with pure oxygen, oxides of nitrogen are produced so it’s not a clean fuel as touted and some early projects of H2 production are making it from coal, now that has to be the biggest joke ever perpetuated on us ever.
            Also how many times have we heard ‘Hydrogen is the most abundant element in the universe.” LOL, when was the last time you saw some hydrogen lying around or heard of it gushing out of the ground. No, it has to be created using an energy dense process, a bit like generating electricity, only not nearly as safe or efficient.

            200

            • #
              Bozotheclown

              when was the last time you saw some hydrogen lying around or heard of it gushing out of the ground.

              But it does lie around and gush out of the ground on once it meets up with it’s old pal Carbon! It’s a beautiful relationship with lots and lots of benefits. Too bad there are so many carbon bigots out there.

              70

            • #
              another ian

              As Willis E put it

              “The first problem with hydrogen is that it is pre-burnt – you can’t just open up a hydrogen mine”

              10

              • #
                Chris

                I found some figures relating to hydrogen for a greenie son.
                Hydrogen made by electrolysis of water is 75% efficient.
                Steam reforming of natural gas is 90% efficient.
                1 Kg of Hydrogen has a specific energy of 143MJ/Kg or about 40kWh/ Kg : However to produce this requires 50-85 kWh of electricity.

                It requires 10 times energy to compress Hydrogen than Methane.

                Liquidfying Hydrogen is high energy intensive and must be stored in high-tec pressure tanks or cryogenic vessels
                Gas pipe lines are not suitable because of diffusion losses, brittleness of materials and seals. There is also an incompatibility with pump lubrication.

                A 40 ton truck delivers 25 tons of petrol,
                3.2 tons of methane.
                320 Kg of Hydrogen.

                50

        • #

          Matt
          I too have worked in industrial gases and hydrogen is a total scam. Technically it does not work to deliver at anything other than robbery prices. And yes they seem to wave away those safety issues. The hydrogen will pour out of those salt caverns…

          One particular nasty of liquid hydrogen is that is condenses oxygen into itself, forming an explosive mixture…lovely…

          170

        • #
          sophocles

          H2 is very dangerous for its ability to pass through most materials.
          This includes glasses.

          50

      • #

        William Astley mentions this, my bolding here,

        …..which explains why Germany’s total capacity factor for green energy (sun and wind combined) is less than 20% of nameplate rating.

        In fact, that situation in Germany is where I actually gained confidence to continue writing about the failure of wind generation.

        When I started all this back in 2008, I found that wind generation was not really doing what was claimed, the ability to actually REPLACE coal fired power MW for MW. It was scary for me to actually put it in print because it went against everything we were being told at the time. In fact right at the beginning, I was absolutely certain I was wrong, that i had just found an aberrant wind plant site that was performing poorly, and that very soon I would find that it really was okay after all. However, the more I looked, the more I found that wind generation was indeed a flop.

        Then I found definitive data from a German site. I had heard a whisper, so I translated a couple of phrases into German, entered them into search engines, (2008/09 remember, so things were primitive even then) and then when sites came up, I used the Google Translate button to translate what I found. It took me a while but I found this data in 2009, and wrote two Posts on the subject.

        The upshot was that at that time of writing, Germany had a total Nameplate for wind of 24,000MW, and it was only delivering its power at a Capacity Factor of just under 20%. It took a while to decipher it all, and then to write it up. (and here’s the link to the page of data graphs for the year)(and as the site is loading, just watch closely at the start how it translates, opening firstly in German, and then ‘doing its thing’. Man, what did we used to do in the old days eh!)

        Before this, I still had doubts that I was wrong about wind power. The link below is to the First Post, and at the very bottom of the text for that Post is the link to the Update, and as you read, note the date at time of writing, October 2009, almost twelve years ago now.

        You’ll also see an image of a wind tower at the top of the Post. Click on that image, and when it opens up, click on it again to see it at the full size, and note the Land Cruiser at the base of the tower for some perspective on size. And once you do that, think again. This tower is 20 year old technology, and recent towers are now twice as high, and the blades are a little longer than the concrete tower from the ground to the hub.

        Link to Post part one – Wind Power – Epic Fail

        Tony.

        350

        • #
          William Astley

          Hi Tony.

          We did the wrong calculations to show wind and sun gathering does not work. The point is we need to show scheme will never work. Same is required of the hydrogen scheme. We need to generalize what is found for a countries.

          i.e. The CAGW paradigm fake problem is not solved or effected by a reduction in some countries of say 40% CO2 emissions. The fake CAGW paradigm requires a scheme that can get to zero.

          We need to disprove the green scams conceptually, in a manner that can be understood by non-technical people. Why does the green scheme not work? Regardless of money spent. Less detail… What key in your facts/issues always will kill the scheme?

          Our analysis and the Governments analysis, has been the current situation. We should have looked at the end game, not the opening game.

          The idiots (Every country that is caught in the scam. Not China. All of the Western countries are now caught in the scam.) are trying to get to zero carbon dioxide emissions, using a power source that can only produce electricity intermittently and will therefore need long term electrical storage or a scheme such as the hydrogen scheme which does not work.

          The UK electrical grid will need to supply three times as much electricity, as heating, manufacturing, and transportation which are now powered from hydrocarbons will need to ‘electrified’ and then powered from the UK electrical grid.

          “The UK electrical grid power supply output would be required to INCREASE by a factor of THREE (with zero emissions) as all heating, manufacturing, and transportation, is going to be powered from electricity”
          http://www.ukfires.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Absolute-Zero-online.pdf

          The end game ‘exercise’ …. Shows that there would need to be an increase in natural gas power stations or wood chip burning power stations. And an increase in the number of wind farms. To provide three times as much power from the UK electrical grid.

          The problem is UK wind farms at best can power roughly 35% of the increase in electrical power. 35% is wind’s average capacity factor in the UK region, which is the best in Europe. Wind does not work for many regions of the US as there are large regions where wind is not available.

          35% is the ballpark best CF for wind in the UK region which is the best in Europe. Sun gathering will not work.

          To make up the missing 65% ….. Would require hydrogen conversion… Say Ballpark and high 5% efficient in storing wasteful wind energy.

          (35% CF wind x 35% efficiency to convert electricity to hydrogen, including power required to compress the hydrogen which is assumed to be stored in salt caverns which limits the scheme, x 40% efficiency to burn the hydrogen/NG mixture in a combined cycle power plant to again produce electricity.) = 5% efficiency as compared to the nameplate rating of the wind turbine.

          i.e. Wind turbine produces electricity, converted water to hydrogen, store hydrogen, and then finally burn hydrogen/NG to power the UK electrical grid roughly 65% of the time. It is assumed of course there will be no more biomass to burn. Germany and other must do the same thing as they are following the same green scam path.

          If intermittent wind energy is used to produce hydrogen and then burned later to produce electricity when required. 20 wind turbines are required to get the 24/7 power from a single wind turbine out of hydrogen/NG mixture burning power plant. That will never work as the scheme.

          Or the installation of say twice as many natural gas power plants as there are currently in the UK. That does not work either.

          Obviously, the green schemes will never get to zero.

          The UK is at the point now where the magic battery is required.

          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power_in_the_United_Kingdom

          The United Kingdom is one of the best locations for wind power in the world and is considered to be the best in Europe.[2][3] Wind power contributed 24.8% of UK electricity

          By the beginning of December 2020, wind power production consisted of 10,930 wind turbines with a total installed capacity of over 24.1 gigawatts: 13.7 gigawatts of onshore capacity and 10.4 gigawatts of offshore capacity.[11]

          The UK Government has committed to 40 GW of installed offshore capacity by 2030,[13] bringing overall UK wind capacity to over 50 GW (c.f. the UK’s electricity demand of between ~30 and ~45 GW in 2019.)[14] In October 2020, the UK government set a new target for floating offshore wind to generate 1 GW by 2030.[15]

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          ivan

          Tony, I remember reading a long time ago that 29% was the maximum energy you could take from the wind driving a set of turbine blades any more and you ended up with back pressure because the dead air couldn’t get out of the way. That appears to be upheld in the equation for calculating energy output v wind speed and turbine diameter.

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        • #
          Geoff Sherrington

          Tony,
          Please do not stop your valued contributions.
          In the 1970s we discovered the Ranger uranium deposits and therefore had to study global electricity production because we were about to change it.
          We evaluated all known major ways to make large scale electricity.
          Some methods were dropped early in these studies because they the drawbacks were so severe that we could not make them work even with optimistic factors for better technology.
          Both wind and solar as we know them now were on this reject list.
          Factors like intermittency and frequency and integration into grids were known then,well nough for total rejection apart from niche markets with special conditions.there is now an abundance of official deceit, that should not be allowed.
          We should have an avalanche of electrical engineers protesting against all expansions of wind and solar. Where are they? Have they forfeited their claim to be professional?
          Ditto with economic analysts.
          Why do they continue to work when they know they are tellers Ng lies?
          Geoff S

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          • #
            Lucky

            Correct. It is a job. One eccentric billionaire creates dozens of jobs. The key is to keep your name off the reports.

            Those of a certain age may recall names like R101 and Hindenburg. With proper engineering design these things can be made safe – Famous last words.

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    • #
      Maptram

      “Wind power supporters ‘bray’ at their loudest when one coal fired Unit goes off line, loudly proclaiming that they are now totally unreliable, and yet, here we have wind swinging by 2000MW on a daily basis ….. and that’s the equivalent of FOUR coal fired Units, and if that happened with coal fired power, they would be screaming it at the top of their voices.”

      And lets not forget that, while there is always a risk of breakdown with coal fired units, the risk can be minimised with planned maintenance, so they are more reliable. So if you have four units, three always producing, one offline for maintenance. Yes it adds to the cost but the cost can be calculated.

      Can that be done with wind powered units?

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      • #
        Peter Fitzroy

        so coal plants are only running at 75% of nameplate, this is not what was presented in the comment at number 1 – the assertion is that only wind power does not meet nameplate

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          FarmerDoug2

          But coal can meet nameplate on demand.

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            TdeF

            When Hazelwood in Victoria was closed it was running steadily at 98% of nameplate for a month. So they closed it. Dictator Dan said prices would rise 20%. They rose multiples. The whole ‘clean’ energy business is based on a lie and lives on more lies. But the money flows like a river. And the US and Australia are enjoying really cold weather, so we should be grateful?

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        • #
          Rowjay

          Hello Peter

          Last year I spent some time checking on the efficacy of the ACT Gov’ts claim to be 100% renewable – here is the real world data again for June 2020…

          The ACT Govt has contracted 639.9 MW nameplate capacity of wind/solar, and confidently state:

          With 640MW of renewable energy already contracted, 100% renewable
          energy is now secure.

          In any user grid, there are two issues to consider:
          – can the contracted suppliers consistently provide the peak power needs of the customer
          – can the contracted suppliers consistently provide the overall base load needs of the customer

          The ACT’s June monthly electrical demand is about 290,000 MWh. The winter demand curve generally has a morning peak of about 470 MW and evening peak of 520 MW, with occasional demand spikes above 600 MW. Minimum base power demand is about 250 MW. The following is a summary of how the ACT’s contracted renewables energy suppliers that have registered with the AEMO (613 MW nameplate) performed for the month:
          :
          Total power generated: about 90,000 MWh – 31% of target
          Morning peak covered: 1 in 30 days
          Evening peak covered: none in 30 days
          Dispatchable output < 250MW: 493 hours (20.5 days equivalent)
          Dispatchable output < 50MW: 126 hours (5.3 days equivalent)
          Dispatchable output < 10MW: 32 hours (1.33 days equivalent)
          Dispatchable output < 1MW: 12 hours
          :
          In summary, the ACT renewables:
          – only generated 31% of required power for the month
          – failed to cover 59 out of 60 peak consumption periods for the month
          – could not maintain a consistent, stable minimum base load of 250 MW for the month
          – sourced more than 90% backup power from the grid for 170 hours (7 days equivalent) for the month

          So, how would the renewables perform if we tripled the ACT renewables portfolio in an effort to cover peak demand – that is 1,839 MW nameplate capacity using 400,000 solar panels and 558 wind turbines:
          :
          Total power generated: about 270,000 MWh – 93% of target
          Morning peak covered: 19 in 30 days
          Evening peak covered: 14 in 30 days
          Dispatchable output < 250MW: 198 hours (8.25 days equivalent)
          Dispatchable output < 50MW: 49 hours (2 days equivalent)
          Dispatchable output < 10MW: 18 hours
          Dispatchable output < 1MW: 11 hours
          :
          So even after tripling the ACT renewables portfolio to 1,840 MW, it still needs non-renewable backup for its entire power needs at unpredictable times.

          Just for comparison, here are the performance figures for Unit 1 at Bayswater Power Station with nameplate 660 MW capacity.
          :
          Total power generated: about 388,825 MWh – 134% of ACT's needs ( at 82% capacity factor for the unit)
          Morning peak covered: 30 in 30 days
          Evening peak covered: 30 in 30 days
          Dispatchable output < 250MW: nil
          :
          One of Bayswaters four 660 MW generating units comfortably covers all of the ACT's power needs for June 2020 with a good safety margin and cover for unexpected demand spikes up to 660 MW.

          These figures are based on dispatchable outputs downloaded from the AEMO SCADA database, using 15 minute intervals. They are easily verified.
          :
          So a theoretical 400,000 solar panels and 558 wind turbines located across SE Australia still need up to 100% backup from other sources to maintain 24/7 peak usage and base power reliability. Why bother with more renewables with our changeable weather patterns and common wind stagnation periods.

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        • #
          Richard Owen No.3

          Peter F:

          Coal plants only run at 75% of nameplate because wind (and solar) has complete priority access to the grid. If the wind starts blowing then the coal plants have to throttle down so the total generation matches the demand.
          Too much generation = blackouts
          Too little generation = blackouts

          The usual CF of coal plants used to be around 90%. At times of lower demand selected plants would go off-line for scheduled maintenance. There would be at least one plant just turning over, ready to increase output should there be a breakdown i.e. fired up producing enough steam to keep the turbine at synchronous speed and enough to accomodate an increased demand (that extra steam usually sent direct to the cooling tower. An increase in cost.
          With the sudden variability of wind, more standby is needed to avoid a blackout DUE to wind. More cost on top of less (paid for) output, so marginally profitable coal plants are being shut down.

          There – in the words of F.E.Smith – you are none the wiser but better informed.

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            Peter Fitzroy

            No they can not, as Maptram points out. And older plants struggle to meet 75%. If you have data post it

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              robert rosicka

              Fitz what was the % of nameplate that Hazelwood was putting out when it was shutdown by the green mob ?

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            • #
              R.B.

              In 2014, it produce 12,000 GWh out of a possible 14,000 (1,600MW nameplate). That is an average of 86%. It would have gone close to 100% when needed. Dropped when not or for scheduled maintenance.

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              Bozotheclown

              Peter F. you know (or maybe you don’t) that you are not talking apples to apples! The wind name plate factor is reality and can’t be modified higher. The Coal generation name plate factor percentage is a CHOICE. It is because of deferred maintenance or delays in replacing boiler components. Often this is because coal has been so demonized that investors are afraid to do those repairs.

              One can choose to raise the capacity factor of coal power to 100%! i.e.: Apples

              One can not choose to raise the capacity factor of wind power to 100%! i.e.: Apples Prunes

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          TedM

          Coal follows the demand. The demand isn’t at a steady nameplate capacity. That’s not hard PF.

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          Yarpos

          You really have little clue about the practical world do you?

          Our us it just faux naivity to try and (badly) score a point?

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        Ted1

        Maptram, the risk of breakdown in coal generation is greatly increased when the politically imposed market induces/forces suppliers to plan for higher prices. To guarantee their profits they want to shut down their coal fired power, which is for them a competitor of their renewables.

        This is very much in play when we see a unit failing at Liddell. Was it being properly maintained? Will power prices go up as a result? Was it in the owner’s best interests that should shut down? As was the case at Hazellwood?

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      Ian

      You write

      “Let me tell you this though. Just to show people what they actually look like, if someone were to construct just one single recent technology wind tower in the central CBD of any of the State Capital Cities, there would be a crowd of thousands standing around the base looking up to the 45 stories to the hub, with the blade tip a further 20 stories higher than that….. ”

      How about if someone were to construct just one single recent technology coal fired power station in the central CBD of any of the State Capital Cities, there would be a crowd of thousands standing around the plant looking at the hectares of space it required. At the space required for the storage of the coal. At the roads required to get the coal to the power plant. At the extent of the pollutants it emitted for the unfortunate office workers to inhale. .Even using ultra-super critical technology and the highest grade anthracite the emissions would still be infinitely more than generated by a wind tower in the central CBD,

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        Furiously curious

        I’d have to say aesthetically you are right Ian, except to put out the power that that one coal fired plant would produce, you would have to fit in, pretty well Australia’s whole 6000 wind turbine fleet. It wouldn’t be a matter of hectares, there would need to be a hole in the CBD of…….. 100?? 200?? sq km. One thing, that isn’t often mentioned, that staggers me, are the 1000+ ton slabs of concrete that make up the base of these monsters. There is a problem with radiation, but how about removing these big boys from the sea bed?
        Who cares??

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          Ian

          I’m comparing like with like. Just one coal fired power station and one wind turbine in the CBD.

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            Matthew

            ” I’m comparing like for like”, no you’re not, 3mw vs 2000mw is not like for like.

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            • #
              Ian

              Did you read Tony of Oz original post? If you did you seem not to have read it very carefully. He states “to construct just one wind turbine” He went on to how the public would respond to the presence and size of just one wind turbine. I replied in the same vein with “”to construct just one coal fired power station and how the public would respond to the presence and size of just one coal fired power station” That is like for like. Neither of us made any mention of output which is not relevant in this context.

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              • #
                Kevin kilty

                Alright then, put a 3MW GE gas turbine hidden in a building, oops they don’t build one smaller than 23MW, on any street and no one would even notice. Run on all sorts of fuels…

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              • #
                Bozotheclown

                Ian drifting in and out of reality again. He must be living in a pot friendly state.

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          • #
            skeptocynic

            Apart from the paranoid loony-left protesters 50 years ago opposing its construction, Newport D gas generated power station has quietly and inoffensively generated up to 510MW for the past 40 years in Melbourne only 6Km from the CBD and nobody notices.

            How many hundreds of wind turbines and mega-batteries would need to be constructed that close to the CBD in order to be able to regularly and reliably supply 510MW on demand? 200? 300? 500? How much would they cost? What would their lifespan be? Do you think 510MW of constantly available wind turbines that close to the CBD would go largely unnoticed?

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            Geoffrey Williams

            ‘Comparing like for like’ Ian what planet are you on son ?! You make no sense . .
            GeoffW

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      • #

        I’m comparing like with like.

        There’s the joke in itself.

        One wind turbine current technology …… 4.5MW.

        One coal fired power plant ….. 2000MW, so 445 of those wind towers, or in delivered power, 1510 of them.

        Really, all you can do is laugh.

        Still, I have to give you credit for one thing though.

        It took some small amount of courage to come to this comment section here at Joanne’s site and to categorically admit you have zero mathematics skills whatsoever. That I do give you credit for.

        Tony.

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        • #
          Ian

          Oh I’m so sorry Tony but the part of your original post I was using as a comparison was

          “Let me tell you this though. Just to show people what they actually look like, if someone were to construct just one single recent technology wind tower in the central CBD of any of the State Capital Cities, there would be a crowd of thousands standing around the base looking up to the 45 stories to the hub, with the blade tip a further 20 stories higher than that….. every single day, mouths wide open, thinking that they had no idea what they looked like.
          It doesn’t even need the blades to be turning, just have them locked. And you want to know the truth. It would not get approval to be constructed there in the first place.”

          This is clearly all about size and not about power output. I have sufficient mathematical skills to know that the size of one coal fired power station is considerably greater than the size of one wind turbine

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          • #
            Kalm Keith

            Yes, everything becomes clearer with hindsite, even for the superiorly highly educated.
            Now we know.
            You understood this from the beginning and were just messing around.

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            • #
              Ian

              Read the earlier comments on this topic KK you’ll see that “hind-sight” (nwas present in the original comment not in the subsequent explanations pf the bleeding obvious to those who seemed, possibly deliberately, determined to miss the point. BTW it’s hind-sight not hind-site. You don’t really need a degree to avoid making elementary errors

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              • #
                Ian

                Couple of typos there but that’s due to my poor typing skills rather than to lack of the ability to recognise the difference between sight and site

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              • #
                Chad

                Ian, obviously you picked a silly example, a full scale Coal plant to compare with a 4 MW wind turbine…..both ludicrously out of place in a city.
                BUT, you may not realise that most cities already have many MW of fossil powered generation installed and unnoticeable to the public, within the city area,.. even within the CBDs
                These are the Gas fueled CHP plants installed for local supply to large building complexes such as Shopping Malls, hospitals, Residential developments , and industries.
                If the current drift to RE grid power continues, i will expect more and more of these systems to be installed.

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              • #
                Kalm Keith

                Yes: mission accomplished: a good effort to have noticed that deliberate misspelling of hindecite.

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      • #
        GlenM

        That is inane.

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        Ted1

        Ian, it’s not all that long ago that Sydney’s power was generated within the city, using coal mined on site.

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        • #
          Bushkid

          Indeed, and my father was an electrical engineer working there. Long time ago…

          When he and my mother moved up to Queensland, he replaced the existing gas generation system (for lighting) with a 32 volt system, powered by a single cylinder diesel motor driving a generator that charged a bank of batteries. Electric lighting, a washing machine, electric iron, and even a vacuum cleaner ran on that system, but the greatest boon was the radiogram – radio when you needed it, and music when you wanted it! Luxury.

          It’s crazy to think there are those who would drag us back to the days before even that little 32 volt system, brilliant though it was in its time.

          He also built a small “wind charger”, as we called it, but it was more a hobby project than a practical generator.

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        • #
          Lucky

          Quite so. Even today, in outer suburbs if not city center, there will be industrial processes running directly from coal. No one would look twice. A wind generator producing the same power (not even the same energy) would be a worse eyesore, and, noise suppression is not possible.

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      • #
        Wet Mountains

        Ian, how much space do solar panel require?

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      • #
        Wet Mountains

        Ian, how much space do solar panels require?

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    • #
      Peter Fitzroy

      Oh I see, the fact that wind power can quickly ramp up or down to complement baseload plants, which can not do that.

      This is presented here as a failure of wind power.

      Cherrypicking at its best

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      • #
        Furiously curious

        What?? Looking out my window now. Lovely sunny day, ain’t no wind. Please ramp it up Pete.

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      • #
        Furiously curious

        Subsidized roof top solar is doing fine, unfortunately cutting out in 5 hours at best. Wind does not compliment baseload power, it makes it uneconomic ie Texas. It’s funny that they are now cancelling ‘normal’, when that is the only safe space for renewables.

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      • #
        Robber

        Wind does not respond to demand, it ramps up and down at random so in no way does it complement baseload plant. To meet demand you need dispatchable generators – coal, gas and hydro.

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        • #
          Peter Fitzroy

          Prove it Robber

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          • #
          • #

            Yeah, look, I hesitate to respond to Fitzroy these days, because all he does is deflect away from the subject, change the topic to suit his own agenda, and in his usual snide manner, just flat out call me a liar, and more often than not, I just cannot respond, literally, as I’m usually laughing loud and long.

            However, where he says the following, it (yet again) shows that he has no understanding whatsoever of power generation and its consumption, and in fact, does not even want to understand it. He says this below in response to Robber where he mentioned that wind does not respond to demand.

            Prove it Robber

            Look at the graph at this link, and this is from Thursday, just three short days ago.

            The upper black line is demand, power consumption/power generation. The green colour rolling along the bottom is wind generation, and I know it’s hard to see, but it’s the only way it can be made to fit at the same scale. However, the graph for wind is the one at this link, also the same day, but here just for wind, so they can make a scale so that it actually can be shown.

            Now, as consumption rises across the day, wind generation falls away, in this case by 2250MW, and in just 12 hours. Now the daily maximum for overall power consumption coincides with the low point for wind generation for the day, with just forty five minutes or so difference. At the low point for wind, it was delivering 0.8% of all power generation from every source, yep, less than one percent. That’s a total of 199MW from a Nameplate of 8132MW, a CF of just 2.45%, and Fitzroy, I can guarantee you, that even you, if you had something that performed this poorly would be taking it back to its manufacturer, and screaming at the top of your voice

            Get this right Fitzroy (in reference to your inane comment at 1.11 above) wind DOES NOT RAMP, either up or down at any time ever. It cannot be made to do anything on demand.

            Oh and Fitzroy, with respect to cherry picking, I’ve got hundreds of them, (literally) just like this one.

            Wind actually IS a failure.

            Tony.

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              Peter Fitzroy

              So at the time when solar is at its peak, wind is backed off, Thanks, you have proved my point

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              • #
                robert rosicka

                Peter “Constrained” and “Ramped” are two very very different things , wind and solar are the only ones I see being constrained while it’s the baseload generation that get ramped to follow the load .

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            • #
              Peter Fitzroy

              I obviously understand a lot more than you do, but hey you are entitled to your opinion, but when you claim x, and do not back it up with y, then I will call you out. In this case, what was a) the windspeed for the NEM, b) what was being generated by solar, c) what were the long term contract provisions for that day.

              If you had bothered to include a,b and c I might take you seriously.

              And as for calling you a liar, I have never done that, but like here I will accuse you of inaccurate reporting of what is happening.

              030

            • #
              PeterS

              Better to ignore people like Peter Fitzroy. They will never change their attitude so it’s a total waste of time even trying to talk sense to them. They have a twisted view of the real world. Might as well talk to a wall.

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              • #
                glen Michel

                Reminds me of school debates some many years ago where on side ( of course) was stuck with prosecuting the affirmative on an issue that the adjudicator or the audience had already made their mind up on. Opening the debate meant you could always pass it on to the next speaker to defend the fact that 2+2=5. In PF’s world up really is down. Being intentionally obtuse is another thing.

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              • #
                Geoffrey Williams

                I agree, we should completely ignore his comments.
                Don’t give him the satisfaction of a red thumb.
                Eventually he will get the message.
                GeoffW

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              • #
                Kalm Keith

                Hi Peter,
                from one perspective it’s best to ignore intrusions like the two responses to Tony just above.

                That still leaves the comments sitting in full view of visitors and regulars and there’s a risk that they may believe that these comments are true and useful.

                People may assume that because the comment has been approved by the blog operators that it is a valid statement or opinion when in fact it is deliberately misleading.

                Since Andy was mentioned a few days ago it probably doesn’t hurt to restate what was happening in the long run up to his leaving.

                The blog seemed to be the target of several actors who were up to mischief.

                Quite independently of each other we both began to challenge these malicious intrusions for two reasons, the first being that some readers may have believed the tripe and also thinking that the mods might take some action to at least slow the intrusions down so that real debate and exploration could occur.

                There seems to be a view that any comment can be labeled as debate, but when just using the two examples above it can be seen that there are some who are undermining debate: deliberately and constantly.

                The question is do we continue to let repetitive comments like these create mischief and misinformation, and so become a smaller version of their ABCCCC, or do their efforts get recognised for what they are and then treated accordingly.

                Where do we go.

                KK

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                robert rosicka

                Personally KK I think I’ve learned more about CAGW including electricity generation- renewables etc from the likes of Fitz making outrageous claims to try and convert us to the church of CAGW .
                Although they have nothing but their faith and their false arguments they do help others like me to get a better understanding of why their argument is false by reading comments from people like yourself and Tony to name but a few .
                Not sure I’d get the same perspective without an opposing view and the more they push their ideological barrow the more they expose just how faith based they are .
                Last I looked Ian still hasn’t answered the question of how something that’s alkaline can be more acidic .

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              • #
                Kalm Keith

                Good point Robert, but there are too many comments that have no response and sit there white-anting the blog.

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              • #
                robert rosicka

                I agree with the comments bit but that just shows them up for the ideologues that they are , they are their own worst enemy and biggest argument against AGW .
                The thing I find amusing is most of those you refer to have degrees or qualifications in a field of study that would instantly allow them to discredit some aspects of AGW but obviously faith trumps science and just plain commonsense.

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              • #

                Last I looked Ian still hasn’t answered the question of how something that’s alkaline can be more acidic .

                Like me I am sure he knows his chemistry in that dissolving CO2 into water will lower the pH and that some people outrageously and mistakenly call this acidification. Whategver they call it the effect is the same.

                Just for your interest Robert – with acid/base reactions, pH 7 is not the point at which the reaction changes direction. In fact it is the point at which both reactions are happening at the same rate. Did you know that?

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              • #
                robert rosicka

                Why thanks for the reply Gee Aye and I note no one wants to say the word “neutral” as in “The oceans are becoming more neutral” or “The oceans are becoming less caustic” , as for both reactions happening at the same rate at 7 well that wasn’t the question .
                I could easily say what is the normal range of ocean pH and isn’t where we are at moment about smack bang in the middle ? Also isn’t the ocean self buffering because if it’s not how did anything survive in the oceans when CO2 was really high ?
                Some parts of the ocean are acidic and some parts are alkaline and life thrives around both .

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              • #

                Robert, I have a feeling you are still not getting the acid/alkaline thing as you didn’t understand the point I was making about pH 7. pH 7.1 is not especially different from 6.9 in most circumstances. In 7.1 there is not an absence of acid reactions but at 7.2 there are less than 7.1 ie 7.1 is more acidic than 7.2. It’s a struggle for some.

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              • #
                robert rosicka

                Thanks Gee Aye but we are getting away from the original question which was explaining how the oceans were becoming more acidic when they were alkaline and I thank you for the comment which gave your honest thoughts on this oft used piece of propaganda.
                As for what happens technically between 7.0 and 8.0 yes I’m reasonably well versed with your last comment because that was my understanding from both grade school and owning a swimming pool.
                Why this is important is the reasons usually given for CAGW occurring now always include the statement “The oceans are becoming more acidic” which is patently false and yes as water absorbs CO2 it does affect the pH but an experiment in the lab is not going to compare with what happens in the ocean as there are far too many variables including self buffering .

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          • #
            TedM

            How about this for proof PGF. “The wind is not not not synchronised with the load.”

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          • #
            Harves

            So hilarious. Peter now believes his cult has the power to ramp up the wind on demand. I assume they can also make solar power work at night.
            This is the new science.

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          Lucky

          This is not even a smart-alec remark relying on sophistry –
          – wind power does not ramp up or down to complement anything…

          The random surges and collapses of wind power complicate the operation of reliable generation causing cost increases.
          (Just possibly, hydro could cope).
          This characteristic of wind generation demonstrates the inherent failure of such a generation method in terms of business, reliable power delivery, and a political process that forces adoption of this nonsense.

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      • #
        bobn

        wind power can quickly ramp up or down to complement ????
        How does it do that when the wind isnt blowing? Wind cannot be controlled so there is no ‘on demand’ ramp up or down.
        I think you’ve eaten too many fermented cherries.

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          Peter Fitzroy

          look at the graphs, wind is always providing some input. bobn, your comment is uninformed

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          • #
            Kalm Keith

            Example 2.

            https://joannenova.com.au/2021/03/thursday-open-thread-42/#comment-2412492

            Inane comments like this serve no useful purpose except to confront and provide a hindrance to useful progress in examining and learning about the topic.

            If there is any usefulness in examples 1 and 2 it would be interesting to have it explained.

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          • #
            robert rosicka

            Fitz you say wind is always producing but what exactly is the amount each turbine puts out ? If your answer is less than 100% and 100% of the time your exposing yourself to ridicule and if you say wind is there 100%of the time your delusional.

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            Matthew

            They should never have taken the cow fan out of the farmers paddock, they are ok for pumping water for stock most of the time, same as Holland used them for pumping out water from behind the dykes, no matter if they have a rest for 8 hours at a time but as for reliable 24/7 electricity, no chance.

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        • #
          Hanrahan

          wind power can quickly ramp up or down to complement ????
          How does it do that when the wind isnt blowing?

          When the wind IS blowing the wind farm output is fully committed, they have primary access to the market and it is OTHER generation that must cut supply. So when the peak arrives there is no “spinning reserve” in a wind farm. It is ALWAYS coal/gas/hydro that must ramp up.

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        Matthew

        Peter, Peter, they can certainly ramp down ok, but how do you ramp one up when you need more power

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          Peter Fitzroy

          see this graph and Kalm Keith, if it is inane comments I will bow to your mastery in that field. by the way do you have anything substantive?

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          • #
            FarmerDoug2

            It’s hydro that ramped up and down not wind

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          • #
            NigelW

            Peter thinks that graph SUPPORTS his point, yet in his ignorance does not realise it DESTROYS his point (and rather starkly proves Anton’s)

            It’s PROFOUNDLY obvious Petey-boy can’t grasp Capacity Factor….

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            • #
              sophocles

              Petey-boy can’t grasp anything. Same as he thinks climate model output is not mere speculation but ‘evidence’ …

              He claimed, not so long ago, that he provided lots of “evidence” for AGW — he didn’t. Every link he pushed ended up at Climate Models. The links weren’t for me, but I checked every one of them. Climate model runs and output from them is pure speculation, not ‘evidence’ of any sort except as ‘evidence’ of ignorance.

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        • #
          el gordo

          A gas powered plant can ramp up and down best.

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            robert rosicka

            Sorry elgordo gas is for cooking and heating , coal is for generating electricity.

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            • #
              Hanrahan

              Hydro for peaking.

              When the dam is topping they open the taps and let ‘er rip. Kareeya can generate over 100% nameplate in this mode. I remember the operater beaming from ear to ear at their month’s generation.

              Once the water level falls they take over frequency control* leaving some spare capacity to meet the peaks.

              Output drops as the dry continues and they go to peaking only BUT hydro can GUARANTEE to meet commitment a month in advance. Coal burners can schedule maintenance with confidence.

              Yes, coal fired furnaces need maintenance, but that CANNOT be scheduled on a promise to supply from a wind farm.

              * Kareeya may be too small to take over frequency control for the state grid. I talk of the Northern grid as it once was.

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            • #
              Kalm Keith

              🙂

              20

            • #
          • #
            Analitik

            A gas powered plant can ramp up and down best.

            Yes, gas is most suited for rapid ramping but demand does not vary rapidly in normal circumstances apart from some short periods (like ad breaks for popular television programs causing a spike from kettles being switched on). The need for far greater rapid ramping capacity than in the past (15 years prior to now) is entirely driven by renewabubble generators that have priority market access and have generation that can vary rapidly

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            • #
              el gordo

              Twiggy is pushing his green agenda.

              ‘Mining billionaire Andrew Forrest has new green fuel projects to make Fortescue carbon neutral by 2030, a decade earlier than planned, which will also underpin his energy export ambitions.’ Oz

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      • #
        Kalm Keith

        U rite.

        “Looking at the hectares of space it required.

        Looking at the hectares of space it required.

        looking at the hectares of space it required.”

        It looks like a comment from a successful PhD candidate, it squarks like a comment from a successful PhD candidate and exhibits the failure to consider the whole picture unfortunately so characteristic of some successful PhD candidates and sadly it uses its PhD as a shield to repel solid reasoned argument.

        PhD recipients are sometimes functioning examples of the concept that PhDs involve the study of more and more about less and less.

        Recently a PhD recipient rubbished my comments because I have two degrees without appendages, like; “Hons or MSc or PhD.” There are circumstances where the contents of my course work place me ahead of so called climate scientists and frequently PhDs.

        Having said that, there is certainly a need to examine finer points of science in the greatest detail possible.

        And so society moves ahead.

        Thank you Furiously Curious for that very relevant quantitative analysis of the post above.

        KK

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        Kalm Keith

        WAHM.

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      • #
        Yarpos

        Once again , little grip on anything practical or realidtic. A fantasy bubble.

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      Tony
      Please keep providing this information.
      What you detail will become very obvious over time. Here at this website we know that more wind power or more solar just means more violent swings in output.

      If we double the wind power the swings will be 4000MW. Yet we still need the same coal generation to assist. Superimpose on this a further violent swing from ever more solar and we create a simply unmanageable grid.

      This will cause huge issues, but in the end I believe that huge problems is what it will take before the brain dead supporters of unreliable renewables will realise the size of their error. As an engineer my job is to avoid any such issues by proper technical review and recommendation of feasible solutions – but it seems our govts could not care less what engineers say. And they will rue the day.

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    tonyb

    I have always been fascinated by this 2000 year old Greek ‘computer’.

    It seems they have unraveled some of its mysteries

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-9356523/Replica-2-000-year-old-Antikythera-Mechanism-reveals-ancient-Greeks-calculated-cosmos.html

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    tonyb

    Fascinating article on career politicians and the collective failure of our ruling elite

    https://lockdownsceptics.org/2021/03/12/the-failure-of-the-political-class/

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    tonyb

    An Aussie elected to the leadership of the OECD sounds good news.

    It seems he is a bit of a climate sceptic as well

    https://www.politico.eu/article/australian-mathias-cormann-picked-as-next-oecd-chief/

    I know nothing of the guy. Can anyone enlighten me?

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      GlenM

      Mathias Cormann was a Senator for Western Australia and became Finance minister in the current Liberal government. He always played his cards close to his chest,so it’s hard to work out his position is on many matters. A pragmatist who gets under Green skins for his unflappable demeanor. I was quite impressed by his measured and calm responses as a Federal minister.

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        GlenM

        I have a suspicion that he thinks that CC is a load of old cobblers. Being Belgian he loves Mussels and chocolate even though he comes from a German speaking region near the Ardennes.

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    RicDre

    There Are Models And There Are Models

    Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

    I’m 74, and I’ve been programming computers nearly as long as anyone alive.

    Well, based on a lifetime’s experience in the field, I can assure you of a few things about computer climate models and computer models in general. Here’s the short course.

    • A computer model is nothing more than a physical realization of the beliefs, understandings, wrong ideas, and misunderstandings of whoever wrote the model. Therefore, the results it produces are going to support, bear out, and instantiate the programmer’s beliefs, understandings, wrong ideas, and misunderstandings. All that the computer does is make those under- and misunder-standings look official and reasonable. Oh, and make mistakes really, really fast. Been there, done that.

    • Computer climate models are members of a particular class of models called “Iterative” computer models. In this class of models, the output of one timestep is fed back into the computer as the input of the next timestep. Members of his class of models are notoriously cranky, unstable, and prone to internal oscillations and generally falling off the perch. They usually need to be artificially “fenced in” in some sense to keep them from spiraling out of control.

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/03/12/there-are-climate-models-and-there-are-climate-models/

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    RicDre

    Major Survey Shocks: German Youth Rejecting Need For Radical Behavior Change To Fight ‘Climate Crisis’

    Reposted from the NoTricksZone

    By P Gosselin on 12. March 2021

    Frustrated by lockdowns and restrictions, Germany’s youth may be showing signs of rebellion as a comprehensive European Investment Bank generational survey shows “climate protection aspect does not seem to have the high

    priority among young people.”

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/03/13/major-survey-shocks-german-youth-rejecting-need-for-radical-behavior-change-to-fight-climate-crisis/

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    Chris

    Mathias Cormann is a naturalised Australian of Belgium descent. Lived in Western Australia and has a young family. As a politician he was an individual who was decent, intelligent, hard working and honest. He was the Minister for Finance for several years. He told Malcolm Turnbull to leave office as Australia no longer wanted him as Prime Minister. Mathias was respected by both sides of the parliament and we were disappointed to see him go, he was not voted out- he left on his own terms.

    We wish him well, he is a quality bloke who will bring common sense and decency to any organisation he serves.

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    • #

      A green thumb from me Chris. Personally I think Cormann has been Australia’s best politician in the modern era, often having to clean up the trash left behind by lesser lights.

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      el gordo

      Cormann married an Australian girl and they settled in WA where he started working as a gardener and went onto politics.

      ‘Critics laughed when Cormann chased the OECD job. They underestimated him

      ‘Social media’s shock over Mathias Cormann’s victory is what happens when Twitter has an encounter with the real world.’ (SMH)

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        Dennis

        Early life[edit]
        Cormann was born on 20 September 1970 in Eupen, Belgium, within the country’s German-speaking Community.[13] He is the oldest of four children and only son born to Hildegard and Herbert Cormann.[14] Cormann grew up in the village of Raeren, around 5 kilometres (3.1 mi) from the German border. At the time of his birth, his father worked as a turner at a factory in Germany. When he was ten years old, his father spent six months in hospital with a severe illness that left him unable to work; he subsequently became an alcoholic but recovered.[14][15] The family relied on a disability pension and assistance from the local Catholic church, where Cormann served as an altar boy.[16]

        After beginning his education locally, Cormann completed his secondary schooling in Liège, where he learnt French as a second language.[14] He went on to the University of Namur, where he attained the degree of candidate in law.[13] In 1989, he and some university friends drove to Berlin to witness the Fall of the Berlin Wall. He has cited his experiences of the systems used in East and West Germany as influential in his political development.[16] Cormann later undertook law graduate studies at the Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, attaining the degree of licentiate and learning Dutch.[13][17] He learned English as a fourth language in 1993 while on an Erasmus Programme exchange to the University of East Anglia in Norwich, England.[14]

        Early career and move to Australia[edit]
        Cormann’s parents were not politically active.[16] He nonetheless joined the German-speaking Christian Social Party (CSP) at a young age and was elected to Raeren’s municipal council at the age of 21.[14] He later worked in Brussels as an assistant to Mathieu Grosch, who represented Belgium’s German-speaking electoral college in the European Parliament.[16][18] In 1995, he was associated with Joëlle Milquet’s campaign for the presidency of the French-speaking Christian Social Party (PSC).[19]

        During his time studying in England, Cormann began a relationship with an Australian woman. He first came to Australia in June 1994 to visit her family in Perth. Their relationship did not continue, but after returning to Belgium to complete his studies he decided to move to Australia permanently.[16] He settled in Perth in July 1996, aged 25, initially working as a gardener at Presbyterian Ladies’ College as his Belgian law degrees were not recognised.[20] Cormann then cold-called Senator Chris Ellison, the chairman of the parliamentary committee on treaties, and asked to work in his office as a volunteer. After two weeks he secured a paid position as a staffer.[16]

        Through Ellison, Cormann began to develop connections in the Liberal Party of Australia (Western Australian Division).[16] From 1997 to 2000 he worked as chief of staff to Rhonda Parker, the state minister for family and children’s services. He later worked as senior adviser to Premier Richard Court (2000–2001) before returning to work for Ellison after his appointment as federal justice minister. Cormann was elected to the Liberal Party’s state council in 2000. He served as a vice-president of the party from 2003 to 2004 and as senior vice-president from 2004 to 2008.[13]

        In 2003, Cormann joined HBF as health services manager in its health insurance division. He was general manager of its Healthguard division from 2004 to 2006 before rejoining the health insurance division as acting general manager from 2006 to 2007.[13]

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      OldOzzie

      Cormann’s OECD role testament to Australia’s strong international status

      Mathias Cormann’s rise within his chosen country and now globally should be a reminder of the opportunities our nation offers those with will, skill and determination, Piers Akerman writes.

      According to the whining woke folk, Australia is a racist, sexist nation at the bottom of Asia which should have been declared a republic two decades ago.

      But they are as ever wrong.

      Despite the best efforts of the black armband brigade, our nation’s strengths as one of the world’s very few stable democracies has been recognised by the world’s premier international economic institution, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), with the appointment of the former finance minister and Coalition senate leader Mathias Cormann as the organisation’s next Secretary-General.

      In many ways, Cormann represents the spirit of modern Australia.

      A Belgian, he grew up speaking German, he learnt French and Flemish, with English as his fourth language, and migrated to Perth in 1996 with a law degree from the University of Namur and after postgraduate studies at the Katholieke Universiteit Leuven.

      Like many migrants, his degrees weren’t recognised and he worked as a gardener at a Perth girls’ school while looking at the opportunities his new country offered.

      In October 2019, he became the longest-serving Finance Minister, having surpassed the record previously held by Nick Minchin. Not a bad record for what we once called a New Australian and he didn’t get to his lofty new position through quotas, or identity politics.

      He was chosen by the 38 member nations of the OECD on his merits.

      His rise within his chosen country and now globally should be a reminder of the opportunities our nation offers those with will, skill and determination.

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        Tilba Tilba

        According to the whining woke folk, Australia is a racist, sexist nation at the bottom of Asia which should have been declared a republic two decades ago.

        What on earth has being a republican got to do with anything?

        And there is certainly plenty of sexism and racism in Australia … we are neither all good nor all bad. But we are better than a lot of places.

        As for Piers Ackerman, he’s always been a blatant shill for the Murdochs … a faithful company man.

        As for Mathias Cormann, I’ve always had a certain regard for the guy, notwithstanding his Cyborg looks and a voice uncannily like Arnold Schwarzenegger – he seems affable, polite, and intelligent.

        Notwithstanding Piers Ackerman’s thesis, it might be the case that Cormann achieved the top job at the OECD despite his 25-year stint in Australia, rather than because of it. Who can possibly tell?

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          Chad

          Corman’s multi lingual abilities ( 4 languages ?) , his Legal qualifications, Proven Financial abilities, as well as his natural political diplomacy,..would be major factors in his favour for the OECD role……
          ….no matter which country he had come from . !
          And yes, probably the best politician Australia has had in a very long time !

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        OldOzzie

        Turnbull tried to hobble Cormann in OECD job

        Mathias Cormann’s come-from-behind victory to be elected head of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development happened despite efforts by Malcolm Turnbull to discredit Mr Cormann as a worthy candidate.

        Sources close to the bid process said attempts by the former prime minister to torpedo Mr Cormann’s candidacy were widely known.

        “We were told out of Germany and the US that Turnbull has been active; we heard he sent messages via text,” said a source.

        “He wasn’t getting any traction, but he certainly tried. He directly reached out to [German Chancellor] Angela Merkel and senior people in the US.”

        It is understood Mr Turnbull’s argument was based on his criticism of Mr Cormann’s poor record on climate change and associated policy.

        But success in undermining Australia’s former finance minister’s bid for the role would have come at the cost of an important win for the Morrison government’s credibility and influence globally.

        The Australian Financial Review sent a text to Mr Turnbull on Sunday saying it had been told he had lobbied the Germans and US against Mr Cormann’s candidacy and asking whether he would like to comment. He declined.

        It is no secret Mr Turnbull harbours a deep dislike of Mr Cormann after the key role the then senator played in ousting Mr Turnbull from the prime ministership in 2018.

        The trigger for that coup was the National Energy Guarantee policy that Mr Turnbull was trying to usher through a bitterly divided party room.

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          Tilba Tilba

          It is no secret Mr Turnbull harbours a deep dislike of Mr Cormann after the key role the then senator played in ousting Mr Turnbull from the prime ministership in 2018.

          Indeed – I doubt there are any limits to (a) Malcolm Turnbull’s self-assessment, and (b) his revenge motives to attack all of those who were part of his ouster.

          I think Turnbull was on the downward spiral with his handling of Utegate – he really looked very politically inept.

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    dinn, rob

    drowning America in big barrels of wine https://balance10.blogspot.com/2021/03/drowning-america-in-big-barrels-of-wine.html
    ……………………………..
    how to drown in debt, illustrated https://balance10.blogspot.com/2021/03/how-to-drown-in-debt-illustrated.html

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    RicDre

    U.S. surface temperatures drop to the lowest in over 30 years during February
    Anthony Watts

    If you thought he cold last month was “unprecedented” and ” worse than we thought” you’d be right. Last month’s polar outbreaks in the United States caused record subzero temperatures, power outages for millions of homeowners in Texas when wind energy failed, and more than two dozen deaths.

    It was also the coldest February in over three decades. Two different metrics of temperature measurement from NOAA agree in demonstrating that we really could have used some “global warming” but there was none to be had.

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/03/13/u-s-surface-temperatures-drop-to-the-lowest-in-over-30-years-during-february/

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    David Wojick

    I have two 30 minute interviews with Tom Harris that cover the essence of about 20 different climate and energy issues. Here they are:

    Interview #1: https://www.spreaker.com/user/10530937/031-fbdXNV

    Interview #2: https://www.spreaker.com/user/10530937/032-tfZ7hF

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    RicDre

    New Zealand Climate Commission Accused of Carbon Accounting Tricks

    Guest essay by Eric Worrall

    Robert Lachlan, Distinguished Professor of Applied Mathematics at Massey University, has accused the New Zealand climate commission of using dubious accounting tricks to exaggerate New Zealands progress towards achieving emissions reduction goals.

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/03/13/new-zealand-climate-commission-accused-of-carbon-accounting-tricks/

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    Jojodogfacedboy

    At times facts, truths and real reasons are hard to find in the jumbled world of politics.

    There are two lines at line 5 between Canada and the US installed 65 years ago using quality products.
    Boat anchors have damaged both lines and the company just wants a cheap fix of cement over the lines as they feel aged high pressure lines are still safe and will keep using them.
    Rather than the much more costly replacing them.
    The State disagrees and is canceling their land agreements May 12.

    Ah, finally finding out what our politicians and media won’t.
    Our Energy Minister in Canada is lying when stating their in talks and negotiation.
    The lines are safety problems that the company refuses to fix properly.
    Hence, pulling the permits.

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    robert rosicka

    Anyone surprised in the result of the West Australian election result ? Seems not even the liberals were buying into the green new deal on offer by the libs .

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      RicDre

      Aussie Green Conservative Leader Obliterated in State Election

      Guest essay by Eric Worrall

      If you alienate your base, don’t expect them to vote for you. Aussie green conservative leader Zak Kirkup even lost his own seat, after running on a platform of building the biggest jobs, renewable energy and export project in the nation, and vowing to shut down coal extraction.

      https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/03/13/aussie-green-conservative-leader-obliterated-in-state-election/

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        OldOzzie

        Especially here in NSW, the Liberals with Photios and his Green Picks making them worse than the Greens

        With the Leading NSW Liberal Green Idiot MATT KEAN MP Minister for Energy and Environment, Member for Hornsby

        Why Vote Liberal – Waste of Space.

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          OldOzzie

          Vikki Campion: Wood heating under threat from elitist eco-warriors

          To ban wood heating as the cost of electricity ratchets up, and access to affordable power is broken by renewables zealots, fails the first law of government, Vikki Campion writes.

          Being poor does not cut it anymore, now you must also be cold.

          We now have an urban politician, who won his safe seat under the guise of being a Liberal, telling us that we cannot use the first renewable source of fuel to keep warm. From the dawn of time, we have burned twigs and logs.

          Today anyone who owns a chainsaw and has access to a rough paddock can keep warm. But no longer; the earl of elitist eco-warriors Environment Minister Matt Kean has delivered an edict from air-conditioned comfort.

          Politicians like him name climate agreements after the cities they junket to – Paris, Kyoto and, this year, Glasgow. Forget Scotland’s opera, ballet and national theatre, the environmentally enlightened should instead write the next climate policy at the top of the Great Dividing Range in winter.

          Instead of the Glasgow Agreement, we should have the Guyra Agreement – it’s a lot closer, a lot cheaper and we will even turn off the woodfires so these socially aware politicians intent on “clean air” can have an authentic Guyra experience.

          In Hornsby, Mr Kean’s electorate, your toilet bowl does not freeze and crack. In Guyra they do. In June, falling asleep outside can be death. Snow is occasional but pipe-cracking frost is morning after morning.

          I invite Mr Kean to come to freezing Guyra, 1300m above sea level, and tell the elderly – who don’t have the option of selling up and moving to Hornsby where the climate is kinder – to give up their wood fires.

          In the mad pursuit of political dogma, at the expense of people in old, uninsulated homes, often elderly at the lower end of the socio-economic scale, Mr Kean appears confused about who and what he represents – this week rallying for a republic and government regulation of how to keep warm. Is that the new NSW?

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          Sirob

          Kean, is not “just a green idiot”, he’s the epitome of a career politician who never had a real job doing anything useful for society. He’s the type who smells which way the political wind blows and supports what the trendy media want for the sake of his own skin. All the time he masquerades as a middle of the road, level headed with a touch of progressiveness conservative.

          In other words he’s a political chameleon who cares about his own career, period.

          How do I know this you may well ask. I live in the Hornsby electorate and I’ve exchanged emails with his office. He has written to inform me that he would be supporting the party position when I wrote to him detailing my position and asking him which way he intends to vote.

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        OldOzzie

        Libs wipeout: Dire warnings seen as total surrender

        With Mark McGowan ascendant, WA voters saw Zak Kirkup’s warnings of Labor ‘total control’ as opposition weakness.

        For weeks, Liberal leader Zak Kirkup has been imploring voters to consider the risks of Labor gaining “total control” of WA’s parliament. Voters listened to those warnings, and emphatically voted for Labor anyway.

        The result of Saturday’s election is of truly historic proportions.

        Before today, the Liberal Party’s worst-ever election result was 13 seats — posted four years ago when Colin Barnett was dumped from power. So severe is the carnage that the party’s lower-house numbers are almost certain to fall into single digits.

        McGowan’s handling of the pandemic – and particularly his closure of the state’s borders, which have proved especially popular in parochial WA – meant the election was always going to be impossible for the Liberal Party.

        Kirkup’s decision to acknowledge the inevitable and focus on trying to save as many seats as possible carried plenty of logic. The warnings about total control resonated better than any of the 57 policies announced during the campaign.

        But his concession appears to have sat uneasily with the public. Despite his repeated insistence that he wasn’t giving up, voters struggled to see it any other way.

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          robert rosicka

          I can see the same thing happening in Victoriastan and that’s despite the fact we have the most despised premier in the country. The libs as a political force are now just a political farce .

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            Tilba Tilba

            I can see the same thing happening in Victoriastan and that’s despite the fact we have the most despised premier in the country.

            Do we? I think Dan Andrews remains popular, and that apart from the hotel security fiasco, his handling of the pandemic has been good.

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              robert rosicka

              Andrew’s is the most despised premier of of any political party Victoriastan has ever had , when public servants are against you and teachers are calling you names you have trouble.
              They hotel fiasco cost 800 lives and while that maybe easy for you to forget others haven’t .
              He has alienated the CFA, the Ambulance and forestry workers to name but a few , I know some public servants who are life long socialist supporters that hate his guts .

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          STJOHNOFGRAFTON

          All Labor’s got to do now is promise the Australian public the choice of effective alternatives, like Hydroxychloroquine and Ivermectin, to the SARS-CoV-2 other than Big Pharma’vaccines. Having genuine choice in big health issues would be a big vote magnet for thinking Australian voters.

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          Tilba Tilba

          McGowan’s handling of the pandemic – and particularly his closure of the state’s borders, which have proved especially popular in parochial WA – meant the election was always going to be impossible for the Liberal Party.

          Ain’t that the truth. We lived in Perth for a couple of years, and met locals who were proud of the fact that they had never crossed the border – cabbies, barmen, academics, public servants – had never been to Sydney, Melbourne, or Canberra.

          Met a guy who’d been to Bali about eight times and France about three times … but never “over east”.

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        Matthew

        That clown Kirkup must have been a plant from the green left, gave up 2 weeks out from the election, trying to out left the left, hope the Sandgropers don’t mind losing their coal fired baseload and having to cook dinner on the barbie by candlelight. 4 more years folks, suck it up, QLD is the same.

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      Martin

      I was hoping that the Nationals would end up with more seats than the Libs. I usually vote Liberal but cast my vote elsewhere because of the “green new deal” policies espoused by Kirkup. To hear the past Lib leader (Liza Harvey) say that people just wanted to reward the premier for how he has handled the pandemic is disappointing. Pity the Libs got any seats really. Hopefully the Federal politicians take notice.

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      Sirob

      Yes, I’m surprised at the result. It seems enough west Australians are suffering from Stockholm Syndrome and returned the incumbent.

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      • #
        another ian

        What has more seats than the WA Liberal Party?

        Any SUV

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        • #
          Stanley

          Q: What has AS MANY seats as the WA Liberal Party?

          A: A bicycle built for two!

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        • #
          Dennis

          The same election result was experienced by Labor Queensland a few terms ago.

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            another ian

            Now don’t detract from the WA Libs achievement –

            IIRC – the Qld ALP got 7 seats and the vehicle in the answer to the number of seats joke was “a Toyota Tarago”

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        robert rosicka

        Sirob I’m a lib but even I wouldn’t vote for that green left wing economy wrecker .

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        • #
          Sirob

          Rob, I understand, but if we continue to vote either of the two parties Liberal or Labour we’ll continue with the centralisation program of our downfall. They each have their own style of betraying us, but betrayal is assured.

          IMHO we must change and vote in others. Those who won’t compromise.

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      Hanrahan

      Looking at WA’s generation ATM, half is from small solar and another 15% from wind. Coal and gas are only 25% of generation, and they have no extension cord. If one of the coal/gas gen sets were to trip surely they would lose freq. control. Rooftop solar needs a stable grid or it would trip out too.

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    NigelW

    For those who wonder how Canberra can make decisions that seem disconnected from the reality we live in, here’s a look at how we came to choose what we will be calling the “Ataack” class

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    el gordo

    ‘Educationists have been responsible for so many crazy ideas. These ‘experts’ have failed us miserably.’ Peter Ridd in the Oz

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      OldOzzie

      Not sure another Government Bureaucracy is the Answer

      The question is how do we make the soft sciences, especially those upon which government policies are based, more reliable. How do we stop groupthink forming and ensure dissenters are not excluded?

      I have been proposing an Office of Science Review that would audit scientific evidence upon which government policy was based. My most recent motivation for this is that it is now obvious that our reef science organisations are not applying sufficient quality assurance protocols to their work. This was highlighted in last year’s Senate inquiry into the impact of farming on the reef. The challenge by informed senators revealed some staggering admissions — such as that coral growth rates have not been affected by farming.

      In a similar way, we need a major review of education evidence upon which we have based our failing school system. The education “experts”, especially in our universities, must be subject to serious questions.

      An Office of Science Review must be staffed by people who are outside the peer group. The last people who should audit the evidence used by our failed education experts are the same experts who gave us the problem in the first place. Fortunately, there are many well-qualified educationists, who are well outside the consensus group, to whom we can turn.

      Tudge is clearly determined, like many ministers before him, to improve Australia’s education performance. But unless there is recognition that the so-called “experts” have failed us miserably over the past decades, there is no chance of success.

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        Dave in the States

        The answers are let free markets determine policy priorities rather than central planners in bureaucracies.

        50

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          Tilba Tilba

          Huh? How do you sacred free markets determine what protections are required (or not) to corals on the barrier reef, in the face of farm run-off?

          And a pro tip: there are no “free markets” … they are all rigged, manipulated, controlled, regulated, and huge subsidies are always in play.

          08

          • #
            Dave in the States

            “… they are all rigged, manipulated, controlled, regulated, and huge subsidies are always in play.”

            That’s the problem.

            40

          • #
            Dave in the States

            ” … they are all rigged, manipulated, controlled, regulated, and huge subsidies are always in play.”

            And now elections too.

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        Kevin kilty

        Thirty plus years ago we had an Office of Science Integrity in the U.S. It went badly. It’s worst work involved the very lowest of FBI critical thinking who provided forensic “services”, it became captive to the Democrat party, mainly John Dingell, and suicided itself by going after Nobel Prize winner David Baltimore who wouldn’t stand for the absurdities it posed — cancel culture wouldn’t last a week if there were more David Baltimores or Richard Feynmans.

        60

  • #
    el gordo

    Judith Curry has a list of subjects worth considering.

    https://judithcurry.com/2021/03/12/week-in-review-science-edition-124/

    In the early 19th Century, when the first train began rolling, global warming had already started in China. (SCMP)

    22

  • #
    el gordo

    ‘Workers ordered back to the office as productivity drops.

    ‘It was deemed a new way of working, but concerns are now being raised as to whether people have become “too comfortable” with their working-from-home arrangements.’ (Daily Tele)

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    Furiously curious

    George Floyd jury selection has been happening. I see the family has been given US$34 million, making that $20 dollar counterfeit bill a real collectors item!!

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    • #
      Len

      The powers to be used Big Tech information to choose lefties for the jury that found Roger Stone guilty on flimsy evidence. Would they do the same in choosing the jury for George Floyd’s trial?

      71

      • #
        Tilba Tilba

        Roger Stone had been bent for decades … I reckon he got off very lightly indeed. I don’t know how on earth they pick a disinterested jury for the Chauvin case … the evidence (both ways) is all well known by essentially everyone.

        I think $A34mill in wrongful death is absolutely obscene … even $3.4mill would have been grossly generous.

        012

        • #
          FarmerDoug2

          TT. Only give ticks on especially notable posts so won’t here but I don’t see why 6 red.
          Doug

          10

          • #
            Kalm Keith

            Agree.

            00

          • #
            Hanrahan

            I can see the problem: TT makes a bold statement that Stone is bent but gives no supporting evidence. I am unaware of any law he broke but that hardly matters if you are a Trump supporter.

            But I don’t give red thumbs either.

            00

            • #
              Kalm Keith

              Apologies.
              Only looked at the last line and it seemed sensible.
              I should have checked out the first part.

              00

  • #
    • #
    • #
      OldOzzie

      Name: COVID-19 mRNA Pfizer- BioNTech vaccine analysis print

      TOTAL REACTIONS FOR DRUG 94809 Fatal 227

      TOTAL REPORTS 33207

      Name: COVID-19 vaccine AstraZeneca analysis print

      TOTAL REACTIONS FOR DRUG 201622 fatal 275

      TOTAL REPORTS 54180

      80

    • #
      David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

      G’day Tides,
      Thanks for those.
      Cellulitis was diagnosed for our Health Minister just a couple of days after getting the jab on Saturday March 6.
      Your first chart, for the AstraZeneka shows, on page 21, 140 adverse reactions and one death.
      Your second chart, for the Pfizer shows, on page 22, 54 adverse and zero deaths.
      No mention of those numbers that I’ve seen in the official reports.
      Cheers
      Dave B

      20

    • #
      OldOzzie

      Ireland suspends AstraZeneca rollout over clot concerns

      Ireland has become the latest country to suspend the rollout of the AstraZeneca vaccine, over concerns about post-jab blood clots despite the firm insisting there was no risk

      A spokesman for Ireland’s health ministry told AFP that the rollout had been “temporarily deferred” after the country’s advisory panel recommended a suspension because of concerns raised by Norwegian officials.

      Denmark, Iceland and Norway have also ‘’paused’’ using the AstraZeneca vaccine from last Thursday following reports in Norway of adverse pulmonary embolisms and blood clotting.

      “It has not been concluded that there is any link” between the AstraZeneca vaccine and the blood clot cases in Norway, and action has been taken “pending receipt of further information”, Ireland’s deputy chief medical officer Ronan Glynn said in a statement.

      Norwegian officials said on Saturday the country had reports of people “bleeding under the skin” and “severe cases of blood clots or brain haemorrhages in younger people” who had received the shot.

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      • #
        OldOzzie

        Netherlands halts use of AstraZeneca vaccine

        Amsterdam |The Netherlands has joined a fast-growing list of countries suspending use of AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine after reports of unexpected possible side-effects from the injection.

        The vaccine will not be used until at least March 29 as a precaution, the Dutch government said in a statement on Sunday (Monday AEDT).

        The announcement will lead to delays in rolling out shots in the Netherlands, which had pre-ordered 12 million doses of AstraZeneca’s vaccine.

        Health authorities had scheduled around 290,000 AstraZeneca injections in the coming two weeks.

        The move, which follows a similar decision by Ireland earlier in the day, is based on reports from Denmark and Norway of possible serious side-effects, the government said.

        Three health workers in Norway who had recently received the vaccine were being treated in hospital for bleeding, blood clots and a low count of blood platelets, Norwegian health authorities said on Saturday.

        20

      • #
        Susan Fraser

        Around 12 Countries have stopped giving Covid19 vaccine according to Bloomberg this morning. CNN, BBC, Aljazerra Sky News, all very Mainstream have disclosed to us all that the vaccines are unsafe.

        And Fox News, also Mainstream Media, broke the story(?) That Coronavius was developed as a bioweapon. NoQ also picked this up.

        Finally a few facts are getting put in front of more people

        https://www.foxnews.com/world/top-state-official-coronavirus-bioweapon-accident

        31

  • #
    another ian

    “What pastoralists know

    Pastoralists are experts in managing extreme variability. In a volatile world economy, bankers should learn how they do it”

    https://aeon.co/essays/what-bankers-should-learn-from-the-traditions-of-pastoralism

    “The lesson from the banking crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic, is that attempts at total control will always fail”

    (Thanks to KenB)

    80

    • #
      Lucky

      That paper, I’d would appreciate a summary, maybe it is that there is seldom an equilibrium state that natural systems eventually reach but oscillations at multiple frequencies and dimensions with collapse of sub-systems.

      As for human “total control” – what can be described technically as rigid systems.
      Rigid systems are designed to not vary, and especially not to fail.
      Experience confirms that they do not fail, except for when they do, and when they fail the collapse is spectacular.
      Regret I do not have the pioneer paper from about 60 years ago.

      30

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    OldOzzie

    Peta Credlin: Why federal royal commission into pandemic still needed

    Almost the entire political class would prefer to ignore an ongoing criminal investigation into the Victorian government for its inept handling of hotel quarantine that led to nearly 800 deaths, Peta Crelin writes.

    Maybe it’s sympathy for a Premier recovering in hospital from a serious accident that’s kept the news low key, but I can’t understand why there’s not more concern about the criminal investigation currently taking place into the Victorian government.

    A mere allegation gets made against a federal cabinet minister and there are demands for him to name himself and then to step down pending a formal inquiry, even though the police have said they have nothing to investigate and nothing admissible as the woman involved declined to make a formal complaint before her tragic death.

    Yet almost the entire political class would prefer to ignore an ongoing criminal investigation into the Victorian government for its inept handling of hotel quarantine that led to nearly 800 deaths, a four-month lockdown of Melbourne last year, and another five-day lockdown of the whole state just last month. Why are some people so eager to let Premier Dan Andrews off the hook?

    Last year, it was alleged that the Victorian government, including the Premier, the jobs minister, the police minister and several departmental heads, had breached the laws.

    In particular, by failing to provide a safe system of work for hotel quarantine staff, with protective equipment and training simply not provided, as the Coate Inquiry heard, ministers and officials had allowed COVID to escape and as a result nearly 800 people had died, and the state was economically devastated.  

    Under Victorian law, bosses can be jailed if failing to provide a safe system of work causes death, and the law makes no distinction between private and public employers.

    After months of silence, WorkSafe Victoria has just formally advised the complainant, workplace activist Ken Phillips, that a criminal investigation is “ongoing”.

    When I pushed WorkSafe for details, it was confirmed to me on Thursday that “numerous duty holders, including … government entities”, were being investigated although it refused to name any individuals.

    It will be interesting to see whether the federal Labor Opposition demands that the relevant Victorian ministers “out” themselves, as a number of frontbenchers have demanded of Christian Porter.

    The significance of the WorkSafe inquiry is that, conducted properly, it could do the job that the Coate Inquiry wouldn’t: compel the appearance of witnesses and the production of documents to find out who gave the fateful — and fatal — instruction to use unapproved private security, and not the police and military, to run hotel quarantine.

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      Serp

      Peta Credlin is playing a lone hand against the Victorian shenanigans; the iron control of Australia’s press has left the public ignorant of crucial information and truly the “mushroom club”.

      200

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        OldOzzie

        ‘Peta for Premier’ push as Credlin hits 50

        There have been big ructions on both sides of Victorian politics over the last week. There was, of course, the shock situation of Dan Andrews’ admission to intensive care after a holiday house accident that could see him out of action for months. But over on the Victorian Liberal side, a separate dangerous curve ball was thrown by prominent conservative commentator Steve Price.

        Just before Andrews’ high-profile fall down the stairs, Price used the pages of the Herald Sun to note that ineffectual current Opposition Leader Michael O’Brien had to go. But what really got people talking was Price’s choice of candidate to replace O’Brien: none other than prominent Sky News host Peta Credlin, in a piece titled “Why Peta Credlin should be our next Premier”.

        Price proposed parachuting Credlin (for whom he promoted a long list of credentials) in to replace O’Brien, who he brutally noted “simply will get steamrolled by Daniel Andrews at the next election”.

        “Sorry Peta if the idea horrifies you, but the current Opposition Leader and the two blokes I ran across in an Italian restaurant one night this week simply don’t cut it. Victorian Liberals need to identify a seat for Credlin and take her to (Melbourne dining institution) Di Stasio Citta.”

        Price’s article certainly struck a chord with Herald Sun readers. At last count, it had attracted about 1100 comments — the vast majority vigorously backing Price’s suggestion. That made it one of the masthead’s most commented-upon pieces in a 12-month period that has included an unprecedented pandemic.

        What also makes Price’s suggestion timely was that it came in the same week that Credlin is planning a bash to celebrate a significant milestone.

        Diary has learnt Credlin’s husband, former federal Liberal Party director Brian Loughnane, has been quietly organising a small group of Credlin’s nearest and dearest from politics, media and her school days to a party to celebrate her 50th birthday in Melbourne later this week.

        The original plan, we’re told, was for Credlin to head to Positano in Italy with five or six of her besties for a destination birthday getaway. When that became impossible, the back-up plan was stand-up drinks for about 150 people in Melbourne, but alas, COVID-19 once more had its say, because of Melbourne’s rapidly changing rules on gatherings.

        The safest option ultimately became a small sit-down affair. Dress will be “cocktail” and dancing is “mandatory”, the invitation says.

        And what of the guest list? Credlin was, of course, a senior adviser to two Liberal leaders: Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull.

        Our reliable sources say Abbott — to whom Credlin remains close — will definitely be present. However, it would be fair to say that there’s about as much chance of Turnbull being at her 50th milestone as him ever leading the Liberal Party again.

        In other words, non-existent. Credlin and Turnbull are definitely not bosom buddies.

        Media names who will be attending have been hard for Diary to come by. However, there are two that we can definitely confirm: Credlin’s close mates (and fellow Sky News presenters) Alan Jones and Rita Panahi.

        The most refreshing aspect of her party invitation is a note to guests at the bottom. “Rather than a birthday present, Peta would cherish a copy of your favourite book and for you to write why it’s so memorable to you on the inside.”

        When we briefly asked a bashful Credlin last week about her bash, she replied: “Seriously, I feel very fortunate to be holding a party at all given the pandemic.” Then, tongue firmly planted in cheek, she reflected: “I’m worried that I might be tempting fate now that it’s out in the open, just in case Dan decides to impose another lockdown!”

        Given last week’s events, perhaps Dan may have other priorities now.

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      Hanrahan

      The world needs Australia to step up and have a Royal Commission. Who else could do it believably?

      If the US were to have an enquiry the result would be 90% political, science would be ignored. Britain, NZ and Canada which, I assume, have the ability to set up an RC would also be so political, any findings would be unreliable.

      Are we “man” enough to do it???

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      Tilba Tilba

      Peta Credlin knows what side her bread is buttered … a true ideological warrior for Murdoch … nothing much new here.

      013

  • #
    another ian

    “Hydrocarbon haters: You have no chance of success. Zero. Seven billion people agree, every day”

    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/2021/03/13/hyrdrocarbon-haters-you-have-no-chance-of-success-zero-seven-billion-people-agree-every-day/

    50

  • #
    Sirob

    Seems the political class and their oligarch associates underestimated us ordinary peeons.

    https://www.worldvaccinepoll.com/

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-56202975

    50

    • #
      Tilba Tilba

      On Friday, Heath Secretary Matt Hancock said the government wanted to enable people to prove their vaccination status if other countries demand it for travel abroad.

      But he told reporters at a Downing Street press conference questions about how they might be used domestically would be examined during the review.

      I really don’t understand all the angst and pearl-clutching about having a vaccination certificate. A wide range of countries require such certification in order for you to travel (yellow fever, TB, malaria, and so on).

      Kindergartens require vaccination proof prior to allowing children to enrol, and it seems perfectly rational.

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      • #
        Boris

        I really don’t understand all the angst and pearl-clutching about having a vaccination certificate. A wide range of countries require such certification in order for you to travel (yellow fever, TB, malaria, and so on).

        Kindergartens require vaccination proof prior to allowing children to enrol, and it seems perfectly rational.

        That’s precisely the problem. Are you a free individual or are you government chattel with no say over your bodily integrity? Think about the implications of mandatory vaccination and vaccine passports. For sheeple it’s business as usual. For those with their eyes open it’s another step to total slavery.

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        • #
          Tilba Tilba

          That’s precisely the problem. Are you a free individual or are you government chattel with no say over your bodily integrity?

          A common but nevertheless a false dichotomy … there are all sorts of ways in which society regulates what you may and may not put in your body, and often, the age at which certain things are allowed. Of course we are individuals, but we are also very much members of a society and community – we are very much social mammals, and ever since we were living in caves there have been rules and taboos, and severe punishments.

          In fact there is an anthropological theory that argues that civilised societies only began (and sustained) once there were punishments for murder and a wide range of other anti-social crimes.

          And there is no mandatory Covid-19 vaccination … but there likely will be certificates showing you are vaccinated, and there will be sanctions if you are not. In the same way that everyone licensed is allowed to drive on our roads, but there are severe sanctions if you speed, drive on the wrong side, or drive while intoxicated – are these assaults on your “individual freedom”? Of course they are, but the overwhelming majority of society’s members believe they are a public good that is higher than individuality.

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            Sirob

            Unfortunately, I don’t have the time to take apart your post above.

            But suffice to say that preventing a child from drinking alcohol is not qualitatively the same as government reserving or, appropriating the right to [your] bloodstream/body. You can see the difference, right?!

            In a perfect world without enemies we might dare to contemplate outsourcing that decision to a perfect trustworthy soul. But we are far from that at this point. Look around you and open your eyes.

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              Tilba Tilba

              But suffice to say that preventing a child from drinking alcohol is not qualitatively the same as government reserving or, appropriating the right to [your] bloodstream/body. You can see the difference, right?

              Yes – I know and understand the difference. The point however is there is pearl-clutching over the Covid-19 vaccines, but there isn’t the same reaction to having all our children fully vaccinated so that they can attend kindergarten and school.

              So the issue is not the right of society to demand vaccination – whether for children or for travellers – but it is to do with an ideological issue over the pandemic, and vaccination in response to that pandemic. That is my point.

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                Sirob

                The point however is there is pearl-clutching over the Covid-19 vaccines, but there isn’t the same reaction to having all our children fully vaccinated so that they can attend kindergarten and school.

                I think there are two main reasons.

                Firstly, in the past people were more trusting. Now they see that there’s something not credible with the whole Covid-19 governments and big pharma. The majority of people see that there hasn’t possibly been anywhere near enough time to really develop a vaccine that’s effective and safe. If they are slightly better informed they’ll know that pharma has been working on it since 2005. Knowing this then makes people suspicious. Because this is touted to be a novel virus.

                If they are even better informed they know this has a link to the world economic forum, medical foundations with past and present eugenic ideological links. There has been much evidence of lies and half truths and people see the censoring on the internet of discussion as suspicious. The parade of celebrities and advertisements, much like AGW, again makes people feel it lack credibility.

                Secondly, there is justified scepticism. People no longer believe governments and pharma as they’ve overplayed their hand.

                The real state of vaccines and its program is fast being realised by ordinary people to be without credible safety. The word is out that real inert placebo testing is absent from vaccine safety studies.

                This also feeds into people’s awareness that in the past they’ve been asleep over vaccination of their children and they are rightly questioning the whole paradigm of trust in big pharma and the “one size fits all” approach as not having worked until now so more of the same is counter-intuitive.

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                Tilba Tilba

                Sirob – thank you for the reasonable and rational reply … far nice than the usual ad hom or fruitloop stuff that can happen.

                I guess I retain a very solid trust in government and pharma – and that vaccination is far better for 99% of the punters than not being vaccinated.

                Call me old-fashioned, but I continue to hold the belief that no-one (not government nor Big Pharma) would roll out several vaccines if there were real statistical problems with them. I simply don’t think they would.

                I also think the (Covid-19) anti-vaxxers have way over-played their hand too … with all the Agenda 21 / Great Reset / Bill Gates microchips / killing off all the useless eaters stuff that has been floating around.

                It’s all just nuts – if it becomes obvious there are serious clinical issues for a percentage of vaccine recipients, where that percentage is too high, then we will know about it very soon, I think.

                No-one is trying to exterminate anyone, or change their genes.

                20

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                Sirob

                I guess I retain a very solid trust in government and pharma – and that vaccination is far better for 99% of the punters than not being vaccinated.

                Call me old-fashioned, but I continue to hold the belief that no-one (not government nor Big Pharma) would roll out several vaccines if there were real statistical problems with them. I simply don’t think they would.

                I also think the (Covid-19) anti-vaxxers have way over-played their hand too … with all the Agenda 21 / Great Reset / Bill Gates microchips / killing off all the useless eaters stuff that has been floating around.

                It’s all just nuts – if it becomes obvious there are serious clinical issues for a percentage of vaccine recipients, where that percentage is too high, then we will know about it very soon, I think.

                No-one is trying to exterminate anyone, or change their genes.

                I’m not sure what gives you confidence in government and pharma. They’ve both done things in the past that would show any reasonable person that they are not to be trusted.
                For instance, there are plenty of examples of medical experimentation on domestic populations in the US and Britain over the decades. They are not well known or reported by the mainstream media but they are matter of record. I know in the Anglo-Saxon world Germany in the 30’s is held up as a classic example of a government that experimented on people against their will. I think many of these accusations were to demonise the enemy in case the victors atrocities were to be scrutinised.

                It doesn’t make sense nor instil confidence to remove liability from vaccine manufacturers. All of them have in the past been guilty of scientific fraud.

                As far as using the term “anti-vaxxers” – this implies you haven’t listened to the concerns of people who are cautious about vaccines, instead you’ve dismissed them. I think there are good reasons to suspend the child vaccination programs until each vaccine can be established to be safe by means of true inert placebo testing. Vaccines don’t have the stringent safety testing that drugs do in order to have them approved. The same testing regime for vaccines that exist for drugs should be the case. These tests should be carried out by independent bodies with no financial conflicts of interests or ties to vaccine manufacturers. If you’re interested look up Dr. Judy Wilyman’s book Vacci-nation, 2020.

                You do realise that Bill Gates has a vested financial and ideological interest in vaccines? He has historical ties to eugenic groups. Microsoft and his foundation who both sponsor GAVI have ties to patents which combine vaccine technology with electronic ID technology. GAVI & the Gates foundation have presided over plenty of questionable vaccine programs in India & Africa. That’s a matter of record. There is plenty of evidence that population reduction has backing in exclusive scientific circles. Charles Galton Darwin, Bertrand Russell, in fact, more recently, Paul Ehrlich & John Holdren authored the book Ecoscience Population, Resources, Environment, 1977 where they advance the idea that governments will need to contemplate the idea of involuntary sterilisation by adding sterilant to water or food staples.

                Do a bit of research on Gates. This is a pretty good start – https://youtu.be/TY-vLrz9XCc

                You wrote: “….if it becomes obvious there are serious clinical issues for a percentage of vaccine recipients,….”

                Don’t you think that’s already the case? Really, populations should never have been coerced into being experimented on as is the case now with the Covid-19 vaccines that are being rolled out. If you really think about it, we are the guinea pigs in this. There are plenty of credible doctors & scientists who are calling this current roll out immoral and at odds normal medical scientific imperatives.

                All vaccines have risks, that means that recipients, must have the choice to, consent or, withdraw consent, without penalty. I resent governments paying lip-service to non-mandatory covid-19 vaccination yet in the same breath we are being told that we can’t participate in normal life activities such as travel, employment, school etc. etc. It’s effectively making vaccination mandatory.

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        Sirob

        I really don’t understand all the angst and pearl-clutching about having a vaccination certificate. A wide range of countries require such certification in order for you to travel (yellow fever, TB, malaria, and so on).

        Kindergartens require vaccination proof prior to allowing children to enrol, and it seems perfectly rational.

        That’s precisely the problem. In a world without enemies it might be rational but in our world it’s slow slavery and death.

        Are you a free individual or are you government chattel with no say over your bodily integrity? Think about the implications of mandatory vaccination and vaccine passports.

        For sheeple it’s business as usual. For those with their eyes open it’s another step to total slavery.

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        Kevin kilty

        I went and got the Moderna vaccine, and all I noticed was a sore arm for about 12 hours. However, I don’t like to beat up people for not thinking like me, exercizing caution about things they don’t understand or that are very novel. A number of these vaccines are quite novel, unlike the vaccines for childhood diseases, which are weakened or killed virus vaccines. You are hard wired toward authoritarianism, but you still ought to be able to understand other people’s thinking and concerns.

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  • #
    Furiously curious

    Comment of the week, highlighted on Offsiders.
    “We’ve cancelled Dr Seuss and Dumbo, and I’ve just watched my son set a prostitute on fire, because he didn’t want to pay her, on Grand Theft Auto.”

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    RickWill

    I have wondered how the oceans could warm below 700m from surface heating in 65 years. Taking the thermal conductivity of water at 0.6W/m/K and a thermocline of 20C over 500m it would take 400years to warm the layer between 700 and 2000m by the claimed 0.06C that has been measured in the past 65years. I am not doubting that it is possible to measure temperature of water below 700m to three decimal places. I accept the measurement.

    To test the likelihood of ocean heating from the surface, I made a simple ocean model that reproduces the thermocline reasonly well. It has a 100m mixed layer at constant temperature then a thermocline that I can produce with just three parameters. Two are easily measured and are reasonable constant throughout the ocean – specific heat at 4.2kJ/kg and thermal conductivity given above. The third parameter is evaporation. I found 1.6mm/day NET evaporation gave the thermocline as commonly shown for tropical oceans.

    To arrive at a stable condition, I ran the model for 3000years with surface temperature at 28C and net evaporation at 1.6mm/day. I then tested the model for response to step changes in surface temperature and evaporation. The results depicted here:
    https://1drv.ms/u/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNhCYdDIk7HoZ8ane1
    Increasing the surface layer by the 0.57C warming does not achieve the response measured at depth. I can get a response at depth much faster by REDUCING the rate of evaporation. That means that the water warms by reducing the rate of cooling from the bottom water that is fed from the poles.

    I believe it is impossible for the warming in deep oceans to be the result of conduction from the surface. There may be mixing in deep layers that transfer heat but I do not know of any.

    A warming surface would be expected to increase rate of evaporation. But I know the surface temperature is limited to 30C in the warm pool through cloud regulation of the heat input as well convergence of moist air so net evaporation rate is negative in the warm pools. So expanding warm pools would increase the average temperature AND reduce the rate of evaporation.

    I now have to see what I can verify. To that end I found another interesting paper on warm pools:
    http://ocp.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/pub/seager/seager_mch_2003.pdf

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      el gordo

      Is there a problem in thinking the water is warmed from below at great depth? The general feeling is that hydrothermal heat couldn’t do the job, but I’m unconvinced.

      The warm blobs in the Pacific are of particular interest, because of the obvious association with the Ring of Fire.

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        RickWill

        Most of the ocean at 2000m is at 3.2C and warmer than the deeper ocean. Heat does not travel from cold to hot. The geothermal heat flux is absorbed by the inflows from the polar regions due to thermohaline transport of cool water to depth below 2000m.

        The tropical warm pools are surface phenomena. They occur in all three tropical oceans and are not associated with the ring of fire. Again heat cannot transport against a temperature gradient. I do not know of any deep ocean where the ocean floor is warmer than the surface.

        Heat is conducted down and cool water is transported up to cool the upper levels thereby creating the thermocline. If there was no vertical transport, the entire ocean would eventually reach the temperature of the surface. Would take thousands of years though.

        The net water evaporation from the surface is replaced with water at the base of the column at 3.2C and progresses up the column at about 1.6mm per day. The entire tropical ocean around the 28C temperature has vertical motion around 1.6mm per day by my reckoning. All net evaporation ends up on land and eventually returns via rivers and streams.

        More than 50% of the net radiative heat uptake of the oceans enters in the range 27.5C to 28.5C so that is where MOST of the net evaporation will come from. I have not done a direct comparison of river outflows and the distribution of evaporation. The runoff amounts to about 0.9mm/day across all land. The area of the ocean subject to net evaporation from about 26C to 29C is something I am yet to establish but the 1.6mm/day net rate is certainly in the ballpark.

        This is a work in progress. I have a good understanding how the ocean surface thermostat works, which is the result of convective cloud formation over the tropical oceans and I am trying to get a full picture by looking at what happens deeper in the oceans.

        The idea that the oceans have Jim Hansen’s missing heat is most likely incorrect. No level of increase in surface heat flux at the surface in the last 65 years could be having the claimed heat uptake in the deep ocean. Counter-intuitively, the rate of evaporation would need to reduce to cause a slower rate of cooling in the deep ocean for the heat to increase. That could certainly be the result of increasing average surface temperature if the area of the warm pools is expanding because they have lower rates of evaporation.

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          el gordo

          ‘Heat does not travel from cold to hot.’

          OK thanks, gives me something to work with.

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          el gordo

          Tim Ball makes the argument that the warm blob in the North Pacific is hydrothermal.

          https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/04/08/possible-explanation-for-warm-ocean-water-off-the-oregon-coast-known-as-the-blob/

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            RickWill

            It might be a warm blob but it is relatively cold at 20C. The tropical ocean warm pools are 30C.

            It would be relatively easy to determine if it is causing surface heating by looking at the temperature profile in other locations with similar depth and latitude.

            Most deep ocean water at 2000m is at 3.2C. It warms to 4C at 1000m and then temperature increases more rapidly toward the surface. If the water entering in this Oregan warm blob is warmer than other ocean locations at similar depth then it is experiencing a high rate of geothermal heat input.

            The whole ocean floor is taking in geothermal heat but there is enough lateral flow of water from the poles to equator at depth to have the temperature at 3.2C by 2000m. Fresh water at 2000m will have a temperature below zero but I do not know what it would be with saline water – probably lower than 3.2C though.

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            • #
              el gordo

              Interesting to note in comments that energy released at depth (500 C) will not boil. Presumably the currents slowly move it to the surface, perhaps a thousand kilometres further afield.

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      • #
        Kevin kilty

        I understand that footage of the midocean ridge thermal features, vents and black smokers is very dramatic, but this source is orders of magnitude too small to do the job claimed. The ocean is vast compared even to the tens of thousands of km of mid-ocean ridges. If Tim Ball, whom I have regard for as a climatologist fancies this theory, then I have to say he’s out of his realm.

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          el gordo

          Bob Tisdale also poured cold water on the hypothesis, but what do you make of this?

          https://saltbushclub.com/2020/04/28/south-pacific-blob/

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            Kevin kilty

            I was stunned to read of the 136 km2 pumice raft — very impressive. The total heat energy involved in the blob looks to be about 1 exa-joule. The eruption of Krakatoa released an estimated 840 petajoules. The two are roughly equivalent, but only by assigning all energy to heat and taking a truly huge explosive eruption as a comparator. The Pinatubo eruption was one third of Krakatoa. Mount St. Helens way smaller still. I have no idea how close Tonga F approximates Krakatoa, I would suspect it is much smaller, because its eruption was detected by satellite imagery and not through seismic means so it was just an eruption, not an explosion.

            One of the problems with trying to figure out big causes is that we can arrive at approximately the same large numbers under several scenarios, but they aren’t typical circumstances. Perhaps the coincidence of three large undersea eruptions in the same general area produced a plume the size of the blob. I dunno. I haven’t enough information to go on.

            My general skepticism, and i’ll bet Bob’s too, is with routine temperature anomalies being explained as from undersea volcanoes — one would look at sunshine plus weather/climate anomalies as the first explanation, but people are sometimes inclined to look for causes from phenomena that are three orders of magnitude smaller. That’s my view.

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            Kevin kilty

            That reference you supplied led to some interesting reading. Check out citation#8 and follow its citation list, and one learns something about Tonga F. It is a shallow feature of 700m depth, and the eruption in question released between 2 and 12 million cubic meters of rock. So, there are a couple of bits of data indicating it could be the source of the blob. Most interesting. Thanks for the reference.

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  • #
    liberator

    I’ve been watching a few of John Cadogans motoring videos and while he believes climate change is real and happening, his thoughts on EV’s (he likes them, but…) (and Tesla) is quite an interesting watch.

    There was the bit about EV evangelists beliefs about EV’s being maintenance free. There was an article he shared about one such maintenance free EV. Just a year past its 5 year warranty period, now down to a 180 km range on a full charge – so due for a new battery, at what cost? But it was having electrical issues with its motor(s) quote $18K (AU to fix!!!!) Maintenance free my ar$3!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_VbDgBZTUWg&ab_channel=AutoExpertJohnCadogan

    https://electrek.co/2020/06/12/when-an-out-of-warranty-ev-fails-who-you-gonna-call/

    He’s not a fan of Elon and Tesla either – reckons this year will be their undoing. But I’ve been reading about Tesla’s undoing for Years, yet to see it happen.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rmJAeKLVVTY&ab_channel=AutoExpertJohnCadogan

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    • #
      Chad

      Cadogan is a shining light in the darkness of dumbed down motoring Journalists.
      His independant technical and logical analysis of motoring issues, presented in a unique , humorous Aussie way ,..is so entertaining and informative.
      But yes, i am surprised he is so believing of the AGW theories ?

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  • #
    another ian

    “The Pot Calling the Anthracite Black”

    https://the-pipeline.org/pot-carbon-black/

    “There might be another cost/benefit calculation to their reefer madness of course. After all, without legions of stupefied youths, would the environmentalist movement exist at all?”

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    • #
      another ian

      More interesting reading there (IMO)

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    • #
      Hanrahan

      BitCoin mining is also energy intensive.

      KEY POINTS
      China’s Inner Mongolia region plans to ban new cryptocurrency mining projects and shut down existing activity in a bid to cut down on the energy-consuming operation.

      Bitcoin mining consumes an estimated 128.84 terrawatt-hour per year of energy, more than entire countries such as Ukraine and Argentina.

      Inner Mongolia alone accounts for around 8% of all bitcoin mining globally, more than the United States which accounts for 7.2%.

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    el gordo

    Mr Fitzroy, NASA thinks the world is greening because of industrial CO2.

    https://phzoe.com/2021/02/16/fortunate-global-greening/

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    Rick

    Kirkup’s cockup.
    Zac Kirkup has once again proven that most politicians are completely out of touch with their supporter base. They live in echo chambers where all they hear is the yapping of lapdogs and where they study only the polls that appear to show public opinion – which we all know are almost always wrong.
    Kirkup and his band of merry followers managed to totally misread the electorate; instead of capitalising on the lockdowns, masks and border closures and making them the point of accountability, they instead opted to get woke and go for broke with policies the Greens would be proud of.
    Of course he can’t take all the credit for destroying the Liberal Party – his myopic supporters in parliament and the Party are just as responsible for putting an inexperienced soft-Left youngster in the driver’s seat. I’m no political strategist but even I predicted a wipeout – the only thing I got wrong was the Liberals actually might win a seat or two.

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    • #
      Tilba Tilba

      Kirkup and his band of merry followers managed to totally misread the electorate; instead of capitalising on the lockdowns, masks and border closures and making them the point of accountability, they instead opted to get woke and go for broke with policies the Greens would be proud of.

      I’m not so sure about that … Labor and Mark McGowan had a resounding victory precisely because of their handling of the pandemic.

      If you have an ideological objection to “lockdowns, masks and border closures” per se, then I expect that very much places you in a minority, and the one out of touch with the vast majority of the electorate. Have you considered that possibility?

      But I agree that Zac Kirkup was bizarrely young, and a weird choice for an allegedly mature political party. And the party of privileged cockies, country-town white-shoes and shysters, and assorted gun-nuts, might now be the official opposition … as if it matters very much.

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        robert rosicka

        Who in their right mind would vote for blackouts and more expensive electricity, when a liberal wannabe opposition Premier adopted and campaigned on radical Green policies that alienated him from his base of course he is going to lose and lose big .
        It was never going to be a lib victory but this green in blue clothes just made sure of it .

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    Harves

    John Kerry is tries to bully Australia into making commitments to zero carbon, (that is about virtue signalling and nothing else). But when the EU proposed to punish countries that are doing less than them including the US, Kerry’s not quite so keen. Hypocrite.
    https://www.thegwpf.com/europes-green-deal-in-trouble-as-biden-administration-warns-eu-against-carbon-border-tax/

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    Harves

    Meghan to run for President?
    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/03/13/rumours-woke-radical-green-royal-meghan-markle-will-run-for-us-president/
    This is a person who confessed that she can be brought to tears by Kate Middleton. Just imagine I if a world leader raised their voice to her. Funniest thing is that millions of Americans would actually vote to have her has their Commander in Chief.

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    Hanrahan

    A DAD JOKE
    I was in Bunnings and picked up a can of insect spray.

    “Is this any good on wasps” I asked the Team Member.

    “Oh no” he says “it kills them”. Irish bustard.

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    David Wojick

    My latest research. This time on economic impact analysis.

    States sue to block “social cost” of carbon
    By David Wojick
    https://www.cfact.org/2021/03/14/states-sue-to-block-social-cost-of-carbon/

    The beginning;
    Twelve states have asked a Federal Court to keep federal agencies from using the so-called Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases to calculate the benefits of emission reduction regulations. The new cost estimates, ordered by President Biden on day one, claim enormous distant future damages from today’s emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide. Preventing these supposed damages could justify massive new regulations, but the States say this is illegal because Congress never authorized it.

    The Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) has been around for some time. Obama introduced it as a policy measure, which Trump then canceled. Now Biden has brought it back and made it worse. In a way SCC personifies the craziness of the climate scare. The whole scare is based on outlandish doomsday computer models and SCC is arguably the most absurd of all.

    The fundamental absurdity of the Social Cost of Carbon is that it goes out 300 years to get the supposed economic damages due to today’s minor emissions of carbon dioxide. That’s right, these computer models claim to know what the world’s economy will be for the next 300 years. The claim is absurd because technological and economic progress make the future world unknowable.

    There is a lot more in the article. Please share it.

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    David Wojick

    My latest research. This time on economic impact analysis.

    States sue to block “social cost” of carbon
    By David Wojick
    https://www.cfact.org/2021/03/14/states-sue-to-block-social-cost-of-carbon/

    The beginning;
    Twelve states have asked a Federal Court to keep federal agencies from using the so-called Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases to calculate the benefits of emission reduction regulations. The new cost estimates, ordered by President Biden on day one, claim enormous distant future damages from today’s emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide. Preventing these supposed damages could justify massive new regulations, but the States say this is illegal because Congress never authorized it.

    The Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) has been around for some time. Obama introduced it as a policy measure, which Trump then canceled. Now Biden has brought it back and made it worse. In a way SCC personifies the craziness of the climate scare. The whole scare is based on outlandish doomsday computer models and SCC is arguably the most absurd of all.

    The fundamental absurdity of the Social Cost of Carbon is that it goes out 300 years to get the supposed economic damages due to today’s minor emissions of carbon dioxide. That’s right, these computer models claim to know what the world’s economy will be for the next 300 years. The claim is absurd because technological and economic progress make the future world unknowable.

    There is a lot more in the article.

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    Matty

    Former Australian PM makes sense. I’m not sure everyone grasps what just happened – Tony Abbott does…

    https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2021/03/tony-abbott-on-governments-catastrophic-responses-to-the-china-virus.html

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    RicDre

    Biden & Democrats emission reduction schemes misguided, unrealistic, costly & globally irrelevant

    The WSJ published a recent article allegedly describing how U.S. future energy and climate plans of the Biden administration are being developed.

    The article described various approaches and organizations involved in this process and the schemes that are being considered to significantly increase future U.S. GHG emission reduction commitments.

    The article noted the following:

    “Biden administration officials have said they plan to unveil a new U.S. target for emissions reductions during a global climate-change summit in Washington next month. It will set a goal for reducing U.S. emissions over the next nine years.”

    “In private meetings in recent weeks, according to people involved in the discussions, outside environmental groups and climate data analysts have encouraged the White House to nearly double the emissions reduction target that then-President Barack Obama set in 2014. At the time, Mr. Obama promised to slash U.S. emissions 26% to 28% below 2005 levels by 2025.”

    “The groups have presented modeling to the White House making the case that a target in the range of 50% below 2005 levels by 2030 is achievable, the people said, if it accounts for actions already being taken by cities, states, businesses and local governments. Last year, total U.S. emissions were about 21% lower than in 2005 in part because of the pause in economic activity driven by the pandemic.

    The WSJ article grossly understates the huge economic damage that the Covid 19 pandemic played in reducing estimated year 2020 U.S. CO2 emissions from year 2019 levels.

    The reality is that between 2005 and 2019 the U.S. GHG reduction level was about 12.5% with that reduction level increasing hugely to 21.5% for the period between 2005 and 2020 when the reductions from pandemic year 2020 are included.

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/03/14/biden-democrats-emission-reduction-schemes-misguided-unrealistic-costly-globally-irrelevant/

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    RicDre

    Europe’s Green Deal in trouble as Biden administration warns EU against carbon border tax

    Europe’s Green Deal and its planned carbon border tax are in serious trouble as the Biden administration raises concerns about its potentially disastrous fallout on international trade and relations.

    According to the European Commission the EU’s Green Deal and its 2050 Net Zero target are threatening the very survival of Europe’s industries unless a carbon border tax is enforced upon countries that are not adopting the same expensive Net Zero policies.

    It’s a matter of survival of our industry. So if others will not move in the same direction, we will have to protect the European Union against distortion of competition and against the risk of carbon leakage,” European Commission executive vice-president Frans Timmermans warned in January.

    On Wednesday, the European Parliament endorsed the creation of a carbon border tax that is planned to protect EU companies against cheaper imports from countries with weaker climate policies.

    However, it would appear that the Biden administration is getting cold feet about the protectionist agenda and its potentially devastating impact of world trade, throwing a spanner in the EU’s plans.

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/03/13/europes-green-deal-in-trouble-as-biden-administration-warns-eu-against-carbon-border-tax/

    My first thought while reading this was that Joe Bidens’s puppeteers believe that they are the ones allowed to initiate stupid tax ppolicies.

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  • #

    Kate nails it again.
    @Small Dead Animals.
    “American Style Election”

    Perfect meme and flows around the idiots who attempt to censor us.

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    Peter Fitzroy

    Things that should be included in a discussion about power, and are never mentioned, see comment #1
    1. Contracts – each distributor enters long term contracts with suppliers for electricity. This is based on the historic minimum demand for each hour, day, month and year. Spot prices make the difference between the contracted delivery and the actual demand. With the higher than anticipated take up of rooftop solar, this means that around noon, demand is very close to forecast, and the operator curtails production from alternatives like wind. It does not mean that the wind has stopped blowing. (from AEMC)

    2. Capacity Factor – For Coal (this is the Australian Energy Council) 61% Gas 21% Wind 32% and the rest at 24%

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    • #
      Hanrahan

      and the operator curtails production from alternatives like wind.

      Link please.

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    • #
      Analitik

      1. The AEMC has become beholden to the greentards as best evidenced by the employment of Audrey Zibelman as CEO from 2017 until she left last year. That statement about wind curtailment due to midday solar is a smokescreen to deflect from the numerous times when wind has dropped out while demand has been strong.

      2. The capacity factor is from the Australian Energy Council is the operating capacity factor which is influenced by the market priority for renewabubbles. Coal is capable of operating above 90% capacity factor with less than 10% being in reserve and under maintenance at any time.

      Stop deflecting

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      • #
        Peter Fitzroy

        All right smart boy, what supports your assertions?
        for example in the USA Nuclear 92%, Hydro 42% solar pv 26%, Solar csp 23% Methane 73% Biomass 43% Geothermal 77%, Coal 54%
        Are you able to understand that?

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        • #
          Analitik

          Market forces distorted by greentard policies giving market priority for renewabubbles, wise guy.

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          • #
            Peter Fitzroy

            How does Nuclear get to be 92% under your “greentard” market distortion hypothesis?

            17

            • #
              Analitik

              The far greater capital costs vs operating costs for nuclear make it lower cost for baseload so coal being next up the chain is the one that is squeezed out.

              How much excess coal capacity was in the Australian market prior to the intrusion of renewabubbles? Try looking that up and get back with some sensible discussion.

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        Hanrahan

        That statement about wind curtailment due to midday solar

        So that’s what Fitz is on about. AEMO has no control over small solar and a grid requires a minimum of generation from spinning rotors to maintain frequency control. Under these circumstances wind must be curtailed but this is a problem of the duck curve and a weakness of wind, not a strength. It is a problem WA is learning all about.

        Note: I am aware that batteries can help maintain frequency stability but they are expensive band aids.

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        • #

          Hanrahan,

          don’t worry about that as it does not happen, and for the proof of that, you only need look at the Load Curves, not just for Summer, but in fact, all year round.

          The fatal flaw for Fitzroy is that he doesn’t understand that in the slightest.

          It’s something you only see when you look at those Load Curves on a daily basis, not just the occasional one here and there, but every single one for every single day, for the last four years now.

          You see, for Fitzroy, he thinks that Wind drops away in the middle of the day, (he thinks it’s RAMPED DOWN, but it just falls away of its own accord) so then, if that coincides with the peak for solar power ….. as it does in Summer, and when that usual Summer peak kicks in for Summer, then his ‘magic’ thinking is that (light bulb moment for Fitzroy) then wind is ramped back to cater for that excess in Solar.

          Now, while solar power high for each day may also happen in the cooler 6 Months of the year, further enhancing that fake light bulb moment for Fitzroy, his flaw is that the daily Peak maximum power consumption, overall total power generation, and the maximum for hydro power, maximum for coal fired power, maximum for natural gas fired power, well, that daily PEAK now moves across the day to around 6.30PM for those cooler 6 Months of the year. You, know, when there’s ZERO solar, and wind, well that fell away. (as is nearly always the case now, still back at around the middle of the day)

          So, while coal fired power, natural gas fired power, natural gas fired power do actually RAMP UP, and in perfect correlation with that Load Curve for consumption, solar has gone to sleep for the night, and wind, well, wind does whatever it wants to do, depending only on the wind.

          It’s become an easy thing to actually predict now, as I watch those isobar charts across the day.

          It’s also a case of wind is up and down across the day, not like the others which follow the Load, but with wind up and down, and you never know when. If it was ramped, as he so falsely asserts, then it would just stay down, and it changes on a daily basis, something you would also only see by looking at those load curves for wind generation.

          So, there’s no need to worry about these changes he makes to push his own agenda.

          Also, wind generation has special considerations ensured in the up front contract that they get preference of supply, no matter when, so to maximise their money, they must generate what they can when they can to ensure money comes in, so they get preference all the time, so where Fitzroy says ‘ramping down’, then they would never hurt their money making opportunities by even considering that. If there is wind blowing to generate power, then it is OTHER sources which should have to ramp down, enshrined in those wind contracts for supply.

          Nearly all of electrical engineering leaves a vapour trail as it passes over his head. That’s why I’m laughing so much these days. (Man, if I knew as little as he did, I wouldn’t write a thing about it here that’s for sure)

          Tony.

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            Peter Fitzroy

            All talk Tony, I linked to the main players in this drama, and they have report the facts, not some fantasy that you push.

            Do you not understand about the land term contracts?
            Do you not understand the size of the NEM?
            DO you not understand the capacity figures I posted, both Aus and USA

            You started by saying that the wind dropped off in the middle of the day, but offered no proof. Now you are talking about the night.

            Please read the information on the sites that I quoted, they are the market and industry, and are the real world

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            • #
              Rowjay

              Hello Peter

              Last year for the months of June, July and August, I did a bit of research into how well the total East Coast NEM renewables (11,545 MW nameplate capacity) performed against Bayswater Power Station’s 4 units (2,640 MW nameplate capacity).
              See the results at this website.
              Check out the following:
              – extended wind stagnation events in June and July 2020
              – the sudden renewable generation drop-off and rapid increase (which must cause grid management headaches)
              – how Bayswater PS output ramps up to high 90% capacity during peaks, and is curtailed to about 60% capacity outside peak times
              – how Bayswater PS output remains +90% output during wind stagnation events
              – how Bayswater PS output is curtailed when the wind is strong, but is ramped up anyway just in case…
              :
              This exercise was enough for me to be convinced that Variable Renewable Energy generation without grid scale backup is a waste of time and resources.

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          • #
            Chad

            Tony,
            Please see my reply to Hanrahan a little further down ..
            Comments ??

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    • #
      Kalm Keith

      Quote;
      “Australian Energy Council)
      61% Gas
      21% Wind
      32% and the rest at
      24%”

      Total: 138 %

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      • #
        Peter Fitzroy

        Mr Keith, that is a percentage for each type of generation, not the contribution to the market, I know this is hard, but do try

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        • #
          Hanrahan

          IT ISN’T.

          It is the percentage of the market each type is supplying. But you know that you are abusing Jo’s hospitality and arguing for argument’s sake.

          ATM wind is supplying barely 10% of SA’s demand. In Vic it is barely 6%. If you think that is because they could supply more but have wound back generation for some unknown reason, look at the wind in SA. It is just 7 kt.

          https://www.windy.com/?-37.909,138.455,7,i:pressure,m:cEvaj2k

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          • #
            Hanrahan

            Here’s a wind performance chart:

            https://www.researchgate.net/post/What-is-the-optimum-wind-speed-to-generate-electricity-by-a-wind-turbine

            1 m/s windspeed + 1.94 knots so the 8 knot wind given in windy,com is below cut-in speed so only a few mills in optimum locations will be turning.

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            • #
              Chad

              Hanrahan…A repeat of a post that went missing..
              Much as i hate to comment on anything Fitz is involved in, ..
              And As you may realise by now,… for the sake of clarity, .. Those % figures being quoted and debated, were actually Capacity Factors .. for each technology , not % of grid supply.
              Additionally, the AEMO do “Regulate” the amount of Wind and Solar when it becomes necessary..IE when there is an over supply. They call it “Curtailment”.
              This is easily seen on the http://nemlog.com.au/gen/region/sa/ Site for SA where the legend on the “Generation by Source” graphics show Curtailment as a faint dotted brown trace. It can be seen on some days reducing the supply from RE plants often around midday when there is full sun and if the wind is blowing.
              Studying the “Generation by Station” graphic it is possible to see which RE sites are being turned down, by how much, and when they are returned to full (available) output.
              Obviously, there is bugger all AEMO can do if there is no wind and the sun has set ..so it cannot be termed a “Despatchable” source.. let alone reliable.!

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  • #
    OldOzzie

    Marines Admit ‘Messing Up’ For Attacking Tucker Carlson Over ‘Pregnant Soldiers’ Commentary

    The US Marines admitted to ‘messing up’ after ganging up on Fox News host Tucker Carlson, who mocked the military’s shift from defense to social justice issues – after remarks by President Biden on International Women’s Day on how he’d nominated two women for four-star command positions in the armed forces.

    “So we’ve got new hairstyles, maternity flight suits. Pregnant women are going to fight our wars,” Carlson said on Wednesday night, adding “It’s a mockery of the US military” before he compared the US military to China’s – which is “becoming more masculine.”

    Following Carlson’s segment, the official Twitter account for the II Marine Expeditionary Force Information Group joined a pile-on by several woke military officials – tweeting a picture of a female soldier carrying a male soldier, tagging Carlson with the caption “what it looks like in today’s armed forces,” adding “Get right before you get left, boomer.”

    After the Marines were called out for using their official platform to further a SJW agenda, they admitted “We are human and we messed up.”

    Tucker responded to the Defense Department’s criticism, saying “If the Pentagon can show that pregnant pilots are the best, we will be the first to demand an entire air force of them,” adding “The US military is not a vehicle for achieving equity.”

    “When’s The Last Time You B*tches Won A War?”

    Senior U.S. military officers’ and NCOs’ increasingly strident responses to that criticism appear to have struck a nerve with a number of Americans. Here is a selection of responses to official military accounts via Twitter.

    Active duty military openly taking a political side is, uh, at least a 100x more concerning than anything Trump ever tweeted.

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    • #
      OldOzzie

      Powerful: Military To Allow Troops To Replace Camo With Colors Of Their Gender Identity Flag

      Soldiers, Marines, and sailors deployed to the front lines will be given the choice of which kind of uniform to wear. Options range from transgender flag colors and rainbow colors to lesser-known gender identity flags, such as tater-tots and dragonkin. You can even choose a furry suit, if you so desire.

      “Rather than being stuck with patriarchal desert, forest, or urban camouflage, U.S. service members can now select camouflage that matches the flag of their chosen gender identity,” said a spokesperson for the Pentagon. “It is important that every military member feel comfortable in their uniform and that it reflects their lived truth, whether that be a man in a woman’s body, a woman in a man’s body, or a grapefruit.”

      “Finally — you can live your truth even as you fight America’s enemies.”

      In unrelated news, there has been a spike in casualties among the armed forces fighting on the frontlines, though it’s unclear why.

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    • #
      another ian

      Colin Buchanan has a song in tribute to the Wanaaring Road. Among its achievements were shaking the bolts out of the mailman’s truck and delivering a baby.

      Is the US military going to up the ante to “delivery in high-G turns”?

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    • #
      Hanrahan

      I see no physical reason why women can’t fly a modern fly-by-wire aircraft. One has already died going off the deck of a carrier, not her fault, it was a known engine weakness. It is possible their temperament makes them better than men but that would be admitting that differences do in fact exist. Fighter pilots MUST be able to pull high G turns however as Another Ian notes above. The pilot who knows where his/her limits are and with the best G suit has an advantage in a dog fight.

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        Analitik

        I see no physical reason why women can’t fly a modern fly-by-wire aircraft.

        Agreed. Physical strength is far less important for piloting modern aircraft than in the past. But it does not mean that numbers of female pilots should be mandated to fill a quota for equality/diversity requirements. It should all be about merit (which includes fitting in to the combat/support team).

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          Hanrahan

          Being a little smaller can be an advantage. Eric “Winkle” Brown survived one crash because he was so small, but he was one hell of a pilot.

          I’m not sure which, but one of the US front line fighters has a very cramped cockpit for a big man. A lady would be more at home.

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            Analitik

            (Sir) Douglas Bader had the “advantage” of not being affected by blood pooling in the legs when pulling high G’s after having lost those limbs.

            The cockpit for fighters would not be made too small else half the potential US pilots wouldn’t fit in. The Messerschmitt BF-109 was a classic case where the small cockpit (for better streamlining) limited the force that pilots could put through the stick for some manoeuvers although the high wingloading (again, for better streamlining) ultimately limited the G forces that plane could pull anyway.

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    another ian

    In a comment at Chiefio

    “So much for the Green Nude Eel. “

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    another ian

    Tony in Oz et al – maybe worth a look at the numbers?

    Courier Mail behind Murdoch Wall

    SA power prices surge Friday night after fire took out a gas power plant.

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      Hanrahan

      SA power prices surge Friday night after fire took out a gas power plant.

      Why didn’t they just ramp up the windmills as Fitz claims is possible?

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      Graeme#4

      Previously the SA folk have been busy in The Oz, telling us how their renewable power was driving down wholesale energy prices, how much renewable energy was being exported, and how their diesels were turned off. A different story now, with their unreliable renewables only contributing 2%, wholesale price through the roof and the “clean” diesels again called upon to support their failing power. And now the SA folks want the Australian taxpayers to further support their ailing system by paying for yet another interconnector!

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    OldOzzie

    Technology has turned back the clock on productivity

    Instead of increasing productivity, computer tools tempt highly skilled, highly paid people to noodle around making bad slides.

    The modern knowledge worker fits uneasily into this picture. Most of us don’t use specialised equipment: we use computers capable of doing anything from accountancy and instant messaging to filming and editing video. And while some office jobs have a clear production flow, many do not: they are a watercolour blur of one activity bleeding into another.

    I first noticed this reversal 20 years ago. At the time, economists were puzzling over why computers did not seem to have boosted productivity. Meanwhile, I had an office job with a bewildering variety of responsibilities. Sometimes I was doing research and analysis, sometimes I was figuring out what font to use on a PowerPoint slide.

    Office work is becoming ever more generalist. Everyone does their own typing nowadays, and many people do their own expense claims, design their own presentations and manage their own diaries. We all have access to user-friendly software, so why not?

    In 1992 the economist Peter Sassone published a study of workflow in large US corporate offices. He found that the more senior a person was, the more likely they were to do a bit of everything. Administrative assistants did not do management, but managers did do administration. Sassone called this “the law of diminishing specialisation”.

    This law of diminishing specialisation is surely stronger today. Computers have made it easier to create and circulate written messages, to book travel, to design web pages. Instead of increasing productivity, these tools tempt highly skilled, highly paid people to noodle around making bad slides. Variety is pleasant, and it is all very well to bake sourdough or knit cardigans as a hobby – but a high-paid office job is no place for amateur hour.

    Is this a real problem? It might be. Adam Smith describes a pin factory employing 10 specialists producing 48,000 pins a day. A single generalist, operating without specialised equipment, “could scarce, perhaps, with his utmost industry, make one pin in a day, and certainly could not make 20”.

    Nobody would expect a 4800-fold productivity increase if modern knowledge workers spent a little less time co-ordinating meetings over email and a little more time focusing on the key aspects of their jobs. But even a twofold increase would be worth taking seriously.

    Cal Newport’s new book, A World Without Email, is searing on this point. Examining scientific management studies from the early 20th century, Newport makes the case that manufacturers analysed and fixed their aimless processes a century ago. The gains were dramatic.

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      another ian

      Jerry Pournelle used to write on small computers for Byte magazine.

      He used to marvel periodically at the increasing concentration of personal computers in business and the continued lack of any gain in productivity.

      One of the possibilities raised was that personal computers allowed every user to become a form designer

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        Tilba Tilba

        I worked in gubmint for about 20 years from 1988 … and yes there was an awful lot of dodgy form design going on. But mostly I noticed a huge increase in the size of documents – everybody had access to Word and they went crazy.

        We used to have a rule that any document for a minister or senior bureaucrat had to be no longer than two pages – they wouldn’t read any more than that – but it went out the window totally.

        I also suffered (as we all did) a huge increase in email traffic. And then a huge increase in people trying to corral one’s time – invites to meetings, and so on.

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      Tilba Tilba

      In 1992 the economist Peter Sassone published a study of workflow in large US corporate offices. He found that the more senior a person was, the more likely they were to do a bit of everything. Administrative assistants did not do management, but managers did do administration. Sassone called this “the law of diminishing specialisation”.

      My goodness – sounds like my whole life as a public service senior manager! I had just enough computing skills to be a total generalist (learnt FORTRAN IV in 1970) 🙂

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    OldOzzie

    Thousands of Aussie businesses hit by Microsoft security flaws

    Thousands of Australian businesses and government agencies are scrambling to patch a series of major vulnerabilities in more than 7000 Microsoft Exchange servers across the country after a global attack from a China-based state-sponsored hacking group.

    Last week Microsoft quickly sent out patches for four zero-day exploits, allegedly used by China-based hacking group HAFNIUM. A zero-day exploit is a vulnerability that was previously unknown to the software vendor. “Zero-day” refers to the fact that the developers have “zero days” to fix the newly exposed problem, which might already have been exploited by hackers.

    The four Microsoft exploits allowed hackers to gain access to email accounts and to install malicious software (malware) that may allow them to get back into a target’s servers at another time – a process known as web-shelling.

    The attack would have made those companies and agencies which have their own physical servers vulnerable if they were using the affected Microsoft products, Exchange Server 2013, 2016 and 2019. The attack did not affect Exchange Online – Microsoft’s cloud server service.

    In Australia, more than 7000 servers were running the versions of Exchange Server that made them susceptible to being hacked. That does not mean that 7000 organisations were hacked.

    Robert Potter, security adviser and chief executive at Canberra-based cyber defence consultancy Internet 2.0, said many major government agencies disable Online Web Access – which allows people to connect to their corporate internet accounts from outside the workplace – to reduce their vulnerability.

    However, he said large organisations with poor cybersecurity would have been vulnerable.

    Mr Potter said the last attack of this scale was the WannaCry hack, which targeted Microsoft Windows operating systems but had ransomware attached.

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      Tilba Tilba

      My partner’s hotmail account was inaccessible for a day or two on our main desktop – maybe it was part of that.

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    OldOzzie

    The Chinese TV commercial that the NBA doesn’t want its players to see

    The National Basketball Association has climbed into bed with the Chinese Communist Party because the nation it rules is a huge market that seems to be in love with basketball. So eager to please the ruling communists is the NBA that fans with protest signs supporting Hong Kong democracy protestors were kicked out of games.

    The NBA does, however, love protests against the United States, especially Black Lives Matter protests, even though those have led to death and destruction in this country. The vast majority (almost 3/4) of NBA players are Black, even though such a widely disproportionate racial makeup of any other highly paid workforce outside of athletics would be deemed strong evidence of racial discrimination.

    I would wager that the NBA’s management does not want its players to see the following Chinese television commercial in which a Chinese woman shoves a Black man into a washing machine after feeding him a laundry detergent tablet, where the advertised product magically (and violently) washes the blackness out of the man – to the delight of the woman. He comes out Chinese (not White), of course.

    49 sec video

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      Tilba Tilba

      The Chinese TV commercial that the NBA doesn’t want its players to see

      You’re talking dishonest nonsense – there is no connection between that disgusting soap powder ad and the NBA. Very shameful post.

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    OldOzzie

    Gonski education ‘reform’ delivers a lesson in money for nothing

    Nick Cater

    Few problems are solved by spending more taxpayer money, but that doesn’t stop governments trying. When the cash doesn’t achieve the desired result, they frequently commit to increasing it, blaming failure on the level of funding rather than poor policy.

    Eight years after Julia Gillard shackled education to the findings of the Gonski Review, the unpalatable conclusion is that the steep increase in school funding has been a disastrous policy mistake.

    Education Minister Alan Tudge belled the cat in a speech to the Menzies Research Centre on Thursday. Since 2013, federal government school funding has increased by 80 per cent in nominal terms to a record $23.4bn, and it has committed another 40 per cent to reach $32.8bn by 2029.

    Yet standards are plummeting. According to the OECD’s Program for International Student Assessment tests, the performance of Australian 15-year-olds has declined by 26 points in reading since 2000, the equivalent of nine months of schooling; 33 points in maths since 2003, or 14 months of schooling; and 24 points in science since 2006, 11 months of schooling.

    The picture is grim. Two decades ago, we ranked fourth in the world in reading, eighth in science, and 11th in maths. By 2018, we ranked 16th in reading, 17th in science and 29th in maths. On average, Australian students trail their counterparts in Singapore by 18 months in reading and science and three years in maths.

    Those who read the Gonski Review, rather than brandished it as a slogan, won’t be surprised. Its fundamental assumption, that educational outcomes are directly related to government funding, was never tested. It was programmed to fail by its terms of reference, which asked the wrong questions. It set out to develop a system in which school achievement was not determined by differences in wealth, income, power or possessions while ignoring the influence of welfare dependency and drug and alcohol addiction in the home that put the performance of teachers into perspective.

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      Tilba Tilba

      It set out to develop a system in which school achievement was not determined by differences in wealth, income, power or possessions while ignoring the influence of welfare dependency and drug and alcohol addiction in the home that put the performance of teachers into perspective.

      It seems to me that a policy that aims to ensure “school achievement was not determined by differences in wealth, income, power or possessions” is a perfectly reasonable one.

      And what is this saying: “while ignoring the influence of welfare dependency and drug and alcohol addiction in the home that put the performance of teachers into perspective.”? Teachers (I am married to one) have to deal with a wide range of very difficult issues, once you get out of the leafy upper and middle class suburbs. That was the whole point of the Gonski reforms.

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    RicDre

    The Problem with Climate Models

    Ed Zuiderwijk, PhD

    There is something strange about climate models: they don’t converge. What I mean by that I will explain on the basis of historical determinations of what we now call the ‘Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity’ (ECS), also called the ‘Charney Sensitivity’ (ref 1), defined as the increase in temperature at the bottom of the Earth’s atmosphere when the CO2 content is doubled (after all feedbacks have worked themselves through). The early models by Plass (2), Manabe & co-workers (3) and Rowntree & Walker (4) in the 1950s, 60s and 70s gave ECS values from 2 degrees Centigrade to more than 4C. Over the past decades, these models have grown into a collection of more than 30 climate models brought together in the CMIP6 ensemble that forms the basis for the upcoming AR6 (‘6th Assessment Report’) of the IPCC. However the ECS values still cover the interval 1.8C to 5.6C, a factor of 3 difference in results. So after some 4 decades of development climate models have still not converged to a ‘standard climate model’ with an unambiguous ECS value; rather the opposite is the case.

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/03/14/the-problem-with-climate-models-2/

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    CHRIS

    Climate modelling has always been a joke, and always will be…no matter where this modelling originates. The basic premise of ALL climate modelling is Chaos Theory, and thus it is impossible to make any logical prediction of climate activity.

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