Who needs studies? CSIRO doesn’t need any evidence to tell Australians how things work
Senator Matt Canavan asks Dr Peter Mayfield of CSIRO why an explainer document they put out about the bushfires didn’t include a sentence he found in another CSIRO study.
“No studies explicitly attributing the Australian increase in fire weather to climate change have been performed at this time.”
A record breaking ten long seconds of silence in Senate estimates this week.
The CSIRO only needed to say There are no studies showing man-made climate change has increased either droughts or bush fires. (References at the link).
Matt Canavan has recently given up his role as a Cabinet Minister to support a leadership challenge by Barnaby Joyce in the Nationals party. Unleashed!
Amazing what people can achieve from the back bench. Make this man PM!
as for the bushfires:
first eight minutes.
BBC’s Pease: thorough 46-page report…thorough…thorough…Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute: thorough. collected data from 11 different climate models. main customers at present are the media haha. need funding, have none at present:
AUDIO: 30m22s: 5 Mar: BBC Science in Action: Australia’s fires – fuelled by climate change
Presenter: Roland Pease
Attributing Australia’s bush fires, a major study says man-made climate change was a big driver – making the fires at least 30% worse than they would have been if natural processes were the only factors.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3csym36
10mins to 16m17s: Australian bushfires segment. Pease brings up studies published in Nature Climate Change (btw Roland Pease was Assistant Editor, Nature Publishing Group, 1987 – 1993 – LinkedIn)
13m55s: BBC’s Pease brings up CAGW.
AUDIO: 30m08s: 27 Feb: BBC Science in Action: Presenter Roland Pease; guest: Prof Matthias Boer, Uni of Western Sydney
Australia’s fires have burnt around 20 percent of the countries woodlands, what are the implications for the recovery of those ecosystems?…
And what is the link between the world’s super rich and deforestation? Unsurprisingly it’s money. And we hear about the unexpected cooling effects of hydroelectric dams.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3csym35
Uni of Western Sydney: Experts offer comment on national bushfire crisis
Associate Professor Matthias Boer, Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment: Associate Professor Boer leads the Fire Research Group within the Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment (HIE) and leads HIE research within the NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub. He is an expert in fire ecology and fire management, with particular interest in the biophysical modelling of fire regimes, effects of climate change, and fire risk mitigation by prescribed burning…ETC
https://www.westernsydney.edu.au/newscentre/news_centre/more_news_stories/experts_offer_comment_on_national_bushfire_crisis
behind paywall:
24 Feb: NatureClimateChange: Unprecedented burn area of Australian mega forest fires
Matthias M. Boer (Western Sydney University), Víctor Resco de Dios & Ross A. Bradstock
Additional Information:
Peer review information Nature Climate Change thanks Douglas Kelley and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0716-1
25 Feb: Science Alert: AFP: Those Horrific Wildfires in Australia Destroyed a Fifth of The Continent’s Forests
by PATRICK GALEY
Australia’s wildfires have destroyed more than a fifth of the country’s forests, making the blazes “globally unprecedented” following a years-long drought linked to climate change, researchers said Monday…
In a special edition of the journal Nature Climate Change, Australian researchers examined several other aspects of the blazes, including investigations into their extent and possible causes.
One study (LINK) showed that between September 2019 and January 2020 around 5.8 million hectares of broadleaf forest were burned in New South Wales and Victoria…
This accounts for roughly 21 percent of the nation’s forested area, making this fire season proportionately the most devastating on record.
“Halfway through Spring 2019 we realised that a very large part of the eastern Australian forest could be burned in this single season,” Matthias Boer, from the Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment at Western Sydney University, Penrith, told AFP.
“The shock came from realising that this season was off the charts globally in terms of the percentage of the continental section of a forest biome that burned.”
Boer said his study almost certainly underestimates the extent of forest loss as the island state of Tasmania was not covered in the data.
Australia’s annual average forest loss to wild fires is typically well below 2 percent…
Boer said that climate change was all but certain to make Australia more prone to wildfires and urged the government to strengthen fire readiness measures and “take urgent and effective action on climate change.”
https://www.sciencealert.com/bushfires-decimated-a-staggering-fifth-of-australia-s-unique-forests
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4 Mar: BBC: Climate change boosted Australia bushfire risk by at least 30%
By Pallab Ghosh
The analysis has been carried out by the World Weather Attribution consortium…
Co-author Geert Jan van Oldenborgh of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute in De Bilt, The Netherlands, told the BBC even the study’s very conservative estimates were troubling.
“Last year the fire prevention system in Australia, which is extremely well prepared for bushfires, was straining. It was at the limits of what it could handle, with volunteers working for weeks on end,” said Prof van Oldenborgh.
“As the world warms, these events will become more likely and more common. And it’s not something that we are ready for.”…
Although it makes sense that human-induced global warming is likely to have led to more bushfires, assigning a figure to that increased risk is complex.
That is because other factors not directly related to climate change may also play a significant role. These include increased water use making the land drier, urban heating effects or unknown local factors.
Nevertheless, Prof Jan van Oldenborgh and 17 fellow climate scientists from six countries gave it their best shot. “It was by far the most complex study we have undertaken,” he told the BBC…
The researchers found the climate models consistently underestimated the observed increase in temperatures in south-east Australia and so could not pinpoint a figure for the increased risk from climate change. They were, however, able to tease out a minimum risk.
“We show that climate change definitely increases the risk of the extreme weather that makes the catastrophic bush fires (that south-east Australia has experienced) in the past few months more likely by at least 30%.
“But we think it could be much more. We don’t know how much more. It could be a lot more.”…
VIDEO: 5m09s: Hell to high water: Australia’s summer of extremes
Prof van Oldenborgh is among those attempting to find out if the current climate computer models really are underestimating the influence of global warming – and if they are, working out how to correct them.
His co-author Prof Friederike Otto, from the University of Oxford, said such work was needed to build a more accurate picture of the risk of bush fires.
“We have only given a lower bound in answer to that question, confirming that climate change is indeed an important driver – also locally – and that we need to continue to test our models in the real world,” she explained.
This would “improve them so we can provide higher-confidence risk information at the scales where people live and make decisions”.
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-51742646
[Moved from a previous thread. Jo ]
70
So there are studies which show that climate change plays its role . And CSIRO has done its own research
112
There is no empirical evidence of climate forcing by atmospheric CO2.
No evidence of anything except natural climate variability.
A fantasy cannot cause the reality of extreme bush fires in a drought after a few years of above average rainfall.
Build-up of fire-load can.
221
Who mentioned CO2? This sis about the effect of climate change not the cause. Stop with your greatest hits of the last century, and absorb what is being posted
29
Peter if the report was into the bushfires and there are howls from the left that climate change caused it the CSIRO absolutely should have included that they have no data to prove a link between fire weather and climate change .
Where does the CO2 come into it ?
Well again it’s the left that claims CO2 is causing climate change so CO2 becomes relevant to the discussion.
We know there is no proof that CO2 causes climate change .
And we now know there is no link between climate change and bushfires , I think Matt Canavan deserves some recognition for embarrassing the boffins at the CSIRO .
160
You have yet to have even one hit, Peter.
Always a miss.
You have absorbed nothing, learnt nothing.
If you think human caused global climate change is a “thing”
(you know that was what you were referring to with your baseless “climate change” innuendo, don’t lie to yourself)
.. then produce the evidence.
50
“Who mentioned CO2”
It is great that you are now admitting that CO2 has nothing to do with the natural climate variability that has occurred recently (last 200-300 years)and and in fact has always happened.
Maybe you have learnt something.?
In future, I suggest to use the terminology “natural climate variability” to avoid confusion about what you mean. 😉
50
‘The impact of climate change has led to longer, more intense fire seasons and an increase in the average number of elevated fire weather days …’
That is a blatant lie and the RC will tear it apart.
Fitz, do you still believe CO2 causes global warming?
100
Clouds and solar radiation.
Actual Science from measurement,
… not AGW fantasy non-science which is deplete of empirical evidence..
https://notrickszone.com/2020/03/02/new-study-asserts-cloud-cover-changes-drove-the-post-1980s-solar-radiation-increase-important-to-recent-warming/
80
Strong evidence of decrease in clouds, (see link above)
Strong evidence of increased geological activity.
Strong evidence that atmosphere is controlled by the gravity based pressure gradient.
Yet people still hang onto a zero-empirical-evidence hoax of warming by atmospheric CO2.
DOH !!!
80
How many people at CSIRO did it take to put out such political puffery? Not a skerrick of evidence and you’re a mug if you believe that this is enough to convince you.
81
A badly aimed finger hit the red rather than the green glen. Sorry about that.
Cheers
Dave B
40
BIG fire means very large amounts of CO2 emitted to the atmosphere. Probably more than for the whole of Oz emissions for any year! What happens? Does temperature dramatically increase after fire has gone out? No. So natural emissions of CO2 causes no temperature increase. Why would far lower man-made emissions? Does a CO2 molecule know if its man-made or naturally made?
A huge bush fire clearly shows CO2 has zip to do with temperature change caused by atmospheric CO2 levels. Only climate models can be man-made. Huge increases in natural CO2 does not increase the planet’s temperature. Climate models allow climatistas to rake in tax paid dollars. We can only expect mnore models and less real data.
60
Actually Geoff after the fire came flooding rain , therefore High CO2 emissions = rain .
50
Staring us in the face.
The ultimate experimental proof of CAGW Droop.
Impotent!
KK
30
A simple background check of Pat’s sources reveals the following:
The definition of forest used by Australia’s National Forest Inventory (https://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/forestsaustralia/australias-national-forest-inventory/) is:
“An area, incorporating all living and non-living components, that is dominated by trees having usually a single stem and a mature or potentially mature stand height exceeding 2 metres and with existing or potential crown cover of overstorey strata about equal to or greater than 20 per cent. This includes Australia’s diverse native forests and plantations, regardless of age. It is also sufficiently broad to encompass areas of trees that are sometimes described as woodlands.
Australia has a total of 134 million hectares of forest, which is equivalent to 17% of Australia’s land area. Of this total forest area, determined as at 2016, 132 million hectares (98%) are ‘Native forests’, 1.95 million hectares are ‘Commercial plantations’ and 0.47 million hectares are ‘Other forest’. Australia has about 3% of the world’s forest area, and globally is the country with the seventh largest forest area.” [I might add that there appears to be a major discrepancy between ABARES estimate of Qld’s area of forest (51.8 M ha) and that variously reported by the Qld Government’s Statewide Landcover and Trees Study (74 – 84 M ha)].
However let’s use the National Forestry Inventory data for consistency. So if as claimed by Boer et al. and reported by Patrick Galley (“Those horrific wildfires in Australia destroyed a fifth of the continent’s forests”) we should have lost c. 26.4 M ha of the 132 M ha native forest area. But Boer et al. and Galley claim that just 5.8 M ha of broadleaf forest was burnt. This equates to 4.4 % [not 20%!] of the continent’s forests. Looks like another case of climate change hyperbole to me. Why am I not surprised?
340
Brilliant refutation of Boers’s grandstanding mendacity; the pretentious over-formal language (“forest biome”) alerted me that there’s likely to be more than a dash of the usual extreme left skewing of the facts in findings from Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment at Western Sydney University, Penrith. Thanks Bill Burrows.
80
To criticise that definition of Forest is to ignore what went into it.
It was undoubtedly a Labour of love and would have taken at least 6 months by a head researcher and team.
Total Labour cost would have been probably a bit over $200,000, so good value for the Australian taxpayers.
We need more definitions.
The flow on effect could be substantial when the implementation of compliance changes required comes into play.
KK
30
So no bushfires on cool days?
Did anybody explain this to the Australian Aborigines who developed cool season burning by patches to look after their country?
170
Kudos to Senator Canavan.
CSIRO might want to publish the following so as not to appear partial:
What dataset is being used as reference and whether or not it is unadjusted or adjusted data and links to the data being referenced.
Which models are being used and why they were chosen with links to the models and code.
The statistical correlation (R^2, Chi Squared, Pearson moment, and the several rank correlation coefficients) between any model and the record of data they claim to represent in the past as well as the future.
Full Disclosure in the extreme so that others may replicate or refute the claims.
Otherwise, it is simply political propaganda and not science.
420
Lance
Gerard Rennick is also doing a good job here. He grilled Dr Johnson from the BOM the other day in Estimates and Johnsons performance was very poor. The good doctor seems to have no idea about errors and allowance for them.
The Senator needs to ask about the calibration program that the BOM have for their probes at their stations, and how they treat data when they find a probe that is out (either the data from the last good calibration is taken out, or you put error bars on it equivalent to the amount out of calibration that the probe was). I NEVER see error bars on the BOMs charts so suggest that they have no idea about proper data treatment only about homogenising everything to try to create warming trends…
300
Should have made this a double whammy by including the BOM grilling in senate estimates, although no silence just pure spin and refused to answer the question about margin of error .
180
I thought these people were scientists with a reputation to defend but they are just advocates and grant seekers like all the rest. It was great to see them squirm. Thanks Matt.
320
Nothing is proven. Nothing. It is all conjecture on allegations on wild hypothesis, now 32 years old. So what did the 350 CSIRO ‘Climate’ Scientists at the CSIRO finally decide on their hunt to prove man made Global Warming? What was the result of hundreds of millions of dollars of our money? Where is our proof? The new head shut the program down because it was ‘proven’ overseas. Where? When?
And while anyone who disagrees is labelled a fossil fuel lackey, is there any promoter of man made Climate Change/Global Warming who does not derive direct income from it?
We saw what happened to Dr. Murry Selby when he announced CO2 had nothing to do with warming. And Dr. Peter Ridd when he said the Barrier Reef was likely fine. Even a warmists economist like Bjorn Llomberg is pilloried for being reasonable and saying electric cars are an elitist joke, heavily subsidised by the poor so the rich can virtue signal. And most people have another real car for distance travelling. And hybrids are far better for a tiny fraction of the cost.
As for CO2 causing atmospheric warming which causes nebulous ‘climate change’ which causes bushfires, the threadbare skein of illogic is so long as to be pitiful. No one has any proof of anything.
There is in fact nothing to deny. It’s just not true. All of it.
And how can the CSIRO admit that? It pays the wages.
430
Climate change?
Here is the most widely used climate classification, the Köppen climate classification.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C3%B6ppen_climate_classification
There are 30 climates classified by the Köppen classification.
I live in a Csa; Mediterranean, climate, in Perth, Western Australia. It’s still as it was when I was a twenty year old; fifty years ago.
If the climate has changed, which of these need to be reclassified? Which have been reclassified. When?
280
Good questions.
70
Thanks sceptical Sam for bringing up the Köppen classification. Expect political interference here at some time to bring the equatorial in line with the polar.
50
It’s amazing how the CSIRO expected to get away with
This complete falsification of science !
And how embarrassing for them to be shown up
Telling porkies in Senate Estimates.
But of course their lying is unknown to most Australians.
Why ?
Because the media does not tel them !
310
The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation is an Australian federal government agency responsible for scientific research. Its chief role is to improve the economic and social performance of industry for the benefit of the commonwealth.
In this instance making a statement supporting the existence of AGW climate change without any supporting studies is just fine for their scientific process.
Scientific-Fail
Research-Fail
Improve-Fail
Benefit-Fail
261
Why would anybody think that Dutschke’s “long march through the institutions” would quarantine the CSIRO?
What? Because they’re scientists?
Pull the other one.
The march through the CSIRO began back in 1986 (5 December to be precise) when Neville Wran, a long standing member of the socialist Labor Party and a Fabian, was appointed to the position of Chairman of the Board of the CSIRO. At that point the organisation became a home for left leaning, activist scientists who have subverted its original noble intentions. It’s been downhill ever since.
It, along with their ABC, needs to be defunded.
261
Sceptical Sam:
I think that the rot set in earlier than that, in that their direction was off by the early eighties. Long tale but I knew someone who worked part time as a cleaner ( the section manager for the cleaning company worked for him during the day) and he got to clean one of the CSIRO laboratories. He talked with any chemists there after-hours ( 5-6.30 benefitting from Flexitime) without revealing that he had a degree, and was bemused by their lack of grasp of the real world and the little amount of work they were actually doing. That was around 1982 or 1983.
I had a brief connection with them when checking out one of their ‘bright’ ideas for industry in the late 80’s. Very little experimentation, lots of enthusiasm, and expectation that industry would do the work to make it viable. We checked it out in our lab and the idea lasted 30 minutes before it failed. Even if it had worked it would have meant that we would have had to build a new factory rather than adapting the existing process. Not sure whether to call it a zombie or a Dodo process.
140
It’s pretty obvious that the CSIRO don’t want to perform any studies into these links, because they already know the results will point to other greater cause factors such as lack of hazard reduction.
Meanwhile we are left to endure the endless BS from the lobotomized left that all droughts and fires are due to our 1% CO2 emissions.
170
Actually it was the result of the CSIRO working closely with foresters that resulted in WA adopting a far higher prescribed burning amount of 8-10% that has seen WA largely immune from devasting bushfires. So in the past, the CSIRO have been involved in really good research and have published some very interesting papers that are well worth reading.
110
The truth will out, but as people were zeroing in on this truth….cv19 appears. Amazing timing really.
40
If you look at Australian rainfall, you can see the peak rainfall yeas around 2010/11, then slightly smaller peaks in 2016/17. This would have caused a lot of extra growth.
This was followed by two of the driest years on record , 2018/2019.
The intsensity of the fires was absolutely nothing to do with Australia’s non-warming climate
Everything to do with the massive fuel loads that had not been dealt with..
81
typo correction : intsensity -> intensity
20
Climate science, where you needn’t even bother cobbling together a shonky study to support your conclusion, you just put your conclusion out there and rubber stamp it THE SCIENCE.
200
For Australian consumption bushfires are the climate emergency focus, and the allowed build of of fire hazard materials, blocking of fire access trails, banning of cattle grazing and all the other not permitted activities then impacted by drought conditions and arsonists ignored, it’s a climate emergency folks.
In the UK another period of severe flooding has taken place, another climate emergency.
Well the real reason again is lack of maintenance of canals and other drainage channels constructed to keep the land above water and earlier used for transport by barges.
The science is settled: programmed maintenance.
210
UK again, history must not be taught …
Cinque Ports
HISTORICAL TOWNS, ENGLAND, UNITED KINGDOM
WRITTEN BY: The Editors of Encyclopaedia Britannica
See Article History
Cinque Ports, (French: Five Ports) medieval confederation of English Channel ports in southeastern England, formed to furnish ships and men for the king’s service. To the original five ports—Sandwich, Dover, Hythe, New Romney, and Hastings—were later added the “ancient towns” of Winchelsea and Rye with the privileges of “head ports.” More than 30 other towns in the counties of Kent and Sussex were also attached. Until the 14th century the Cinque Ports provided the permanent nucleus of the royal fleet. They were probably first associated in the reign (1042–66) of Edward the Confessor for the defense of the coast and cross-channel passage. After the Norman Conquest of 1066, their importance grew, and, in return for ship service, their privileges were increased to reach their zenith in the 13th and 14th centuries. They were first jointly granted liberties by charter in 1278. After the 14th century they lost their monopoly, and, although they continued to contribute to the navy, this function was unimportant by the time of the threat of invasion by the Spanish Armada in 1588. Their decline was accelerated by encroachment by the sea on the coastline and silting at other places, and today only Dover remains an important port.
Most of their peculiar jurisdiction was abolished in 1855, and only jurisdiction in Admiralty survives. In addition to the towns named above, the other members of the confederation (known as limbs) are Lydd, Faversham, Folkestone, Deal, Tenterden, Margate, and Ramsgate, all in the county of Kent. The highest officer of the Cinque Ports is the lord warden, who is also constable of Dover Castle and has Walmer Castle as his official residence.
90
Bob Menzies was made the Lord of the Cinque Ports by Queen Elizabeth
30
it’s amazing how good these climate scientists are at pinpointing causes with their uncontrolled and unfalsifiable ‘experiments’.
80
A real pity, as in the past the CSIRO have worked closely with foresters and the bushfire management folks to determine exactly the fuel loads that lead to uncontrollable bushfires. But now we have both the CSIRO and university-based ecologists making modelling assumptions about bushfires without ever going out into the field and working with the folks that have to manage these fires.
I haven’t as yet had a good look at the FDDI figures for the scientifically-controlled and measured burns to determine if there is any correlation, but I suspect there isn’t. And all these desk-bound “experts” quote is the FDDI figures.
60
If I may go slightly off point and mention sea levels, I just received this email about same:
Rising Sea Levels–The Climate Debate
The seas and oceans to the east of Australia form the largest body of water on Earth.
This broadly connected vast body of water presents a genuine sea level. The Sydney Fort Denison Recording Station provides stable, accurate and genuine mean sea level data.
The following table shows mean sea levels at 10-year intervals and
these levels are related to Chart Datum which is at the lowest spring tide level.
100 YEARS OF MEAN SEA LEVELS AT FORT DENISON, SYDNEY:
1914 –1.11 metres
1924 –0.98 metres
1934 –0.98 metres
1944 –0.97 metres
1954 –1.00 metres
1964 –1.09 metres
1974 –1.09 metres
1984 –1.02 metres
1994 –1.04 metres
2004 –1.08 metres
2014 –1.12 metres
2019 –1.05 metres
Accordingly, the mean sea level at Sydney in 2019 is 6 centimetres lower than the mean
sea level at Sydney in 1914 when the Bureau Of Meteorology commenced recording
Mean Sea Level.
High Sea Levels during Storm, Cyclone & Low-Pressure Events.
BBC and ABC commentators have asserted that sea levels may permanently rise by 1 to 2 metres in the next 100 years. 100 years of records on the largest water body on Earth indicates that this is incorrect.
There has always been short period storm and low pressure rises in sea levels. The highest recorded sea level at Sydney occurred during the 1974 low-pressure storm. The sea level rose to 30 cm above high spring tide level for one day. During recorded history, there has been no indication whatsoever of a 100 to 200 cm permanent rise in sea level.
There will always be short period storm, cyclone and low pressure rises in sea levels in close proximity to cyclone and storm centres. These storm centre rises in sea levels are not permanent.
Ocean swells and storm waves can exceed 16 metres during major storm surge events. It is these massive waves that have caused significant damage to coastal and island communities in the past. It is certain that huge storm event waves will occur in the future and will cause significant damage to the island and low lying communities. Coastline and flood zone protection is the sane answer to storm event damage.
It is polite and essential that the world population should avoid incorrect climate nonsense. We need to divert the alarmist energy to caring for the planet. Cease polluting the oceans. Prevent development of flood-prone land and threatened coastal zones that have been, and will always be, subject to flooding.
ToM
251
The BoM’s gold standard od sea level measurement is the Australian Baseline Sea Level Monitoring Project. It does not include Sydney. Port Kembla is the nearest site and SL has reportedly risen 98mm since the network was set up in 1991:
http://www.bom.gov.au/ntc/IDO60201/IDO60201.202001.pdf
The PSMSL data for Port Kembla shows 64mm – a large discrepancy.
The highest rise in the network is Cocos island at 204mm over the past 18 years. The PSMLSL data gives 193mm.
PSMSL data for Sydney is 42mm over the last 28 years.
The BoM’s Sea level project is supposed to compensate for station movements and the best that can be achieved. But who would trust the BoM to deliver reliable information.
110
The Cocos Island s are coral atolls
There is nowhere on those island which is higher than a meter or so above sea level
If the mean Sea level had actually riser by 193 mm they would be undewater !
61
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cocos_%28Keeling%29_Islands
“If the mean Sea level had actually riser by 193 mm they would be undewater !”
193mm= 19.3cm= 0.192m. So islands would still be above sea level.
However your main point is valid. The islands are not threatened by sea level rise.
30
And for those that would like to see the actual figures by the BoM –
http://www.bom.gov.au/ntc/IDO70000/IDO70000_60370_SLD.shtml
20
Charted here. https://i.postimg.cc/jd8Vv8bc/fort_denison.png
20
Tides,
Whoever gave you that data is making the mistake of using raw data?
You need to use the homogenized data, adjusted with reference to other tide gauges – especially in South America (Argentina and Brazil) and Africa (Cape Town and Nairobi). When you do that you get the following homogenised data set;
1914 –0.11 metres
1924 –0.28 metres
1934 –0.28 metres
1944 –0.37 metres
1954 –0.40 metres
1964 –0.59 metres
1974 –0.69 metres
1984 –0.72 metres
1994 –0.84 metres
2004 –1.08 metres
2014 –1.12 metres
2019 –1.25 metres
Which shows clearly that the mean sea level has risen 1.13 metres over the period.
No audit needed. It’s settled. OK?
151
If Nairobi has a tide gauge we are all stuffed. It is 1661m above sea level.
71
Yes. That’s what the record shows. However, taking a leaf out of the BoM’s playbook, you must surely be aware that there was an undocumented site shift in the late 1990s.
70
AUD1tr to convert to 100% ambient power generation – tell ’em their dreamin!
40
And it’s not possible, at any price. As former salaried Climate Councillor Prof Will Steffen, a chemist, said, every year Victoria receives twice as much solar energy as needed to power the state. Except that would mean covering half the state in Solar panels. Not only would that cost quadzillions, where would everyone live? And the animals. It is perhaps the least Green statement every made. Only coal, which is free, can power Victoria. And nuclear and gas and oil, which are all banned.
170
If you have quoted Will Steffen accurately then he needs to check his calculations.
Victoria averages 15E6J/sq.m of sunlight each day. That totals to 5.48E9J/sq.m each year. The state has an area of 2.27E11sq.m. So annual insolation is 1.24E21J per year.
Victoria’s TOTAL energy consumption was 1.33E18J in 2017-18. That is for all uses, not just electricity generation. That makes insolationis 932X all the energy consumed in the State.
Maybe he got confused with Kilos, Megas, Gigas, Teras,Petas and Exas. Is easy to do. Safer to use exponents.
In 2018 rooftops produced 4% of Australia’s electricity. These panels occupy about 20% of a typical house area and 30% of houses had them in 2018. So of available roof space, only 6% is being used. If all roofs were covered in panels then rooftop solar production would be 67% of all electricity requirements. If panels were fitted above the yard area of residential blocks, the rooftop production would easily meet the electricity demand – on the basis that there was near infinite storage capacity. Have a look at a Google map image of Australia and you do not see much area covered in residential housing when viewing the full map of Australia.
There are about 9E6 residential dwelling in Australia. Assuming they occupy 1000sq.m. the total residential area is 9E9. The area of Australia is 7.69E12sq.m. So residential development covers about 1/1000th of the total area.
60
You can argue with his calculations, but I think he is right for solar panels on the ground, the only option at the moment. He has probably allowed for the appallingly low conversion rate of light to electricity. Also the fact that the ifra-red end of the spectrum is useless although it counts in the insolation. And the loss of land from overshadowing if only because if you angle the panels to catch the sun, you cast a shadow as well. Rooftop solar is very different. And the low angle of incidence for half the day, especially in winter. And 21 degrees lower angle of incidence in winter. And clouds and rain. And landscape, shadows. It’s a long list.
80
“rooftop solar production would be 67% of all electricity requirements”. Rubbish.
91
The 67% is simple maths based on the actual power output from rooftop solar in 2018.
4% of electricity in Australia in 2018 was produced by 30% of the houses with 20% of the roof space covered with panels. If the entire roof space of the existing solar roofs was covered with panels then rooftop would produce 4% x 10/2 = 20%. Then if all houses had solar panels that covered the entire roof area that 20% becomes 20% x 10/3 = 67%.
So just covering the existing roofs of all residential housing in Australia could produce 67% of all the electricity used in Australia. If residential yards were covered in panels as well then it would be easy to achieve 100% of Australia electricity generation from just rooftop solar.
Residential property in Australia covers 0.001 of the land area of Australia. Only 1/1000th of The Australian land area needs solar panels to produce all the electricity used in Australia.
31
Rick,
Your calculation should be adjusted for the orientation of the roof. Roof panels facing south (ie half of all roof area) will produce very little power.
30
Rick,
I appreciate the thought that you have put into the idea, but transforming the relatively low grade energy incoming from the Sun is in fact an expensive indulgence.
It may be useful in very isolated areas but even then there are problems.
In the cities rooftop is simply Political Electricity and carries with it the ever present burden of modern politics; Votebuying paid for by the consumers and taxpayers.
KK
00
Allowing for the panel efficiency, his error is just 100X out for ALL the energy production.
40
RickWill:
I don’t follow your logic. Firstly most house blocks are smaller that 1,000 sq. metres.
Secondly those panels on the roof are orientated (or should be) for maximum generation. Putting panels on the other slope wouldn’t generate as much (except at the change of seasons in the Tropics but the other side would then generate less).
Thirdly, the ploy is to slap as many panels on the roof as you can.
I think the answer is to cover the whole of Canberra with solar panels. They like them and why not give them a chance to be kept in the dark also.
60
And to lighten the mood, here’s a Simpsons piece which addresses both the Toilet Paper panic and man made bushfires. The voice of authority, press driven.
90
what is proof? said the jesting climate scientist, and would not stay for an answer.
60
A senator cannot become PM.
12
Senator John Gorton did after Holt was lost at Rye back beach.
He resigned as a senator and was elected for the seat of Higgins
While acting PM
70
Ta Bill, learn something new every day.
60
The Royal Commission will conclude that AGW is unrelated to bushfires.
50
At least in the long term.
If the global measured temperature falls in the coming months, I expect the Australian bushfires will get the credit. It already surprises me that BoM are not stating that the amount of smoke caused all the wet weather; they had not counted on the smoke in their models. But BoM probably take the view that they never expose their forecasts to external review. Someone may ask what do they spend all the money doing if they are so horribly wrong.
90
Hi Jo
I do like the work Matt Canavan has been doing over the last few years but he will never be PM while in the Senate and Barnaby and his incompetent mates in the house of reps will never let him switch. The last thing they want is a possible rival for the leadership.
Even if he did manage to change to the reps and get the leadership he is a member of the National party and I would guess that about Net-Zero Liberal party global warming bed wetters/members would vote for a Nat to be PM. No, I actually think Canavan can make a bigger impact in the Senate estimates committees where the greens have been allowed to run amok for years without much pushback and government run organisations like the CSIRO, ABC etc. have gotten away with limited scrutiny.
80
A bit wrong mate. Senator Canavan is a member of the LNP (Liberal National Party) which will win the state government on 31st October this year. There are local government elections on 28th April this year. Local government is supposed to be “apolitical” and conform to the Public Sector ETHICS Act, but there is politics from Greens and Labor in the larger cities. However, watch the vote against the ALP and Green supported candidates particularly in the country councils. Canavan, I think lives in Rockhampton. He could easily win a lower house seat there as the LNP candidate. J B-P was a country premier from Kingaroy. The present leader of the state LNP is from Kingaroy. NSW, SA and Vic need to throw up some decent liberals who have vision for the future of the country. Maybe Queensland can give a lead.
70
I am unconvinced that “drier” and “hotter” add much if anything to the risk and then extent of wildfires. Once the fuel load is dry (say 3 months without rain), another few days if no rain cannot make it drier. And once its hit enough to cause and sustain major wildfires, a further tenth of a degree does nothing.
Many things have threshold conditions not continuous conditions. Once its dry enough and hot enough, you risk a wildfire. How big that is, is determined by things other than drought or temperature.
My dry wood burns just as well in July as it does in August.
100
🙂
00
***WWF bypass Chris Dickman…or Dickman not interested?
7 Mar: ABC: Koala losses from recent NSW bushfires ‘One of the most significant biodiversity impacts in our history’
ABC Mid North Coast By Luisa Rubbo and Kirstie Wellauer
Stephen Phillips, managing director and principal research scientist at ***Biolink ecological consultants, has been revisiting six previously-surveyed koala habitats between Forster and Ballina.
The company was hired by the ***World Wildlife Fund (WWF) to undertake the first on-the-ground surveys in the area since the recent bushfires and is more than halfway through…
“As part of the broader modelling that we’re doing with fire, we’re assuming a 70 per cent loss or — 70 per cent mortality rate,” Dr Phillips said.
“And current information suggests that, based on our field survey work, that the real answer is probably north of that somewhere.
“So the losses are probably far bigger than what we’ve been modelling in.”…
“If we’re losing upwards of 70 per cent of those populations, you’ve got to ask yourself the question of the remaining 30 per cent.
“Will they have time to recover before another fire event happens? Because the Scientific and Industrial Research Organisations (SIRO) are telling us it’s going to get worse not better.”…
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-07/koalas-losses-post-bushfires-bigger-than-modelled/12033834
4 Mar: Guardian: Graham Readfearn: Calls to declare koalas endangered as population declines by two-thirds in 20 years
Exclusive: Bushfires likely to have killed about 5,000 koalas in NSW, report finds
About 5,000 koalas in New South Wales are likely to have died in the bushfires, and their numbers may have dropped by as much as two-thirds in less than 20 years, a new report has found.
Conservation groups want the state government to make an emergency endangered species declaration for the koalas.
4 Mar: Guardian: Graham Readfearn: Calls to declare koalas endangered as population declines by two-thirds in 20 years
Exclusive: Bushfires likely to have killed about 5,000 koalas in NSW, report finds
About 5,000 koalas in New South Wales are likely to have died in the bushfires, and their numbers may have dropped by as much as two-thirds in less than 20 years, a new report has found.
Conservation groups want the state government to make an emergency endangered species declaration for the koalas…READ ON
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/mar/04/bushfires-likely-to-have-killed-about-5000-koalas-in-nsw-report-finds
***the Guardian article has been disappeared. link dead, no google summary when searching excerpts:
20 Jan 2016: AltPress: Music festival destroying local koala population
Australia’s Byron Bay Bluefest is currently suspect to a recent decline in the bay’s local koala population. After a recent study from Biolink Ecological Consultants, researcher Dr. ***Stephen Phillips has told The ***Guardian (DEAD LINK) that he believes the loud noise from the music festival is causing stress on the koalas and forcing them to move, which is the alleged leading cause of this spike in number of deaths. You can read a snippet of the official report from The Guardian below.
(EXCERPT) Phillips was contracted by the festival to study the animals in 2010, when it first moved to its current site. Since then, the festival contracted other ecologists, and Phillips said their reports to council demonstrated the initial population had almost been wiped out.
‘What used to be a very robust population is now no more,’ Phillips said.
In a paper published this month in the journal Australian Mammalogy, Phillips showed the koalas were disturbed by the noise of the festival and uncharacteristically moved outside their home area, away from the noise, during the festival.
Of the seven koalas tracked with radio collars, the three that resided within 525 metres of the stage moved outside of their usual home range – something koalas tend not to do. And three other koalas that lived slightly further from the festival also moved away from the music, but stayed within their home range.
‘Those sorts of actions are very costly for a marsupial like a koala,’ said Phillips…READ ON
https://www.altpress.com/news/music_festival_destroying_local_koala_population/
22 Jan 2016: EchoNet: Bluesfest rejects claim it causes koala deaths
Bluesfest director Peter Noble has rejected a koala expert’s claim that noise from the festival could be killing local koalas through stress, saying disease and wild dogs were most likely the cause of their deaths.
Ecological consultant Dr Stephen Phillips said this week that of 20 koalas surveyed in 2010 initially found close to the Tyagarah festival site in 2010, not one was alive today.
Dr Phillips told Guardian Australia the noise generated from the festival, which stressed the animals and forced them to move, was the main cause of the deaths…
But Mr Noble has described the claims by the scientist from Tweed-based Biolink ecological consultants as ‘hysterical’, saying the Byron shire event site was the only one in Australia with a koala plan of management.
He told website theMusic that festival staff were ‘doing world’s best practice and our study of our koalas on our site, which is not about counting the numbers so that we can say it’s not so bad, is about improving the health and we have now gotten to a point where we are having minor losses.’
Dr Phillips was contracted by the festival to study the animals in 2010 when it first moved to the Tyagarah site but since then, the festival employed other ecologists.
He told The Guardian that those consultants’ reports to Byron Shire Council demonstrated the initial population had almost been wiped out.
‘What used to be a very robust population is now no more,’ Phillips said.
The Guardian report said that in a paper published in Australian Mammalogy this month, Dr Phillips showed the koalas were disturbed by the noise of the festival and uncharacteristically moved outside their home area, away from the noise, during the festival…
Mr Noble was scathing of the scientist’s claims, saying his company was passionate about the well-being of all koalas in the surrounding area’…
‘What you’ve got here is someone with an axe to grind. It is unfortunate and I know he cares for koalas, but it is not fair to attack the ongoing good works of people who actually also really care about koalas, which is my company,’ he said…
COMMENTS:
Hope: I would trust Dr. Stephen Phillips since he did the baseline research of the Koala before the festivals started. It seems like the Event organisers didn’t like what his analysis so found someone else to give the results they are after. Mr. Noble does himself no favours by name calling Dr. Phillips as ‘hysterical.’…READ ON
https://www.echo.net.au/2016/01/bluesfest-rejects-claim-it-causes-koala-deaths/
15 Jan 2016: CSIRO: Australian Mammalogy: Aversive behaviour by koalas (Phascolarctos cinereus) during the course of a music festival in northern New South Wales, Australia
Author: Stephen Phillips (Biolink Ecological Consultants)
https://www.publish.csiro.au/AM/AM15006
50
Classic omission.
30
Don’t panic!
The CSIRO have future climate studied, under control, and have a report …
Carbon tax hit small: CSIRO
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/carbon-tax-hit-small-csiro-20111112-1ncvq.html
Prepare for perfect climate; Thanks CSIRO.
40
This morning, after several years of study, I spotted the statistical fallacy in the attribution studies. (You are the first to hear about this.) First, attribution studies work like this. They take a large scale climate phenom, a big drought in the bushfire case. They compare the frequency of occurrence two model runs, one with and one without “human forcing.” (This is already nuts but bear with me, as it is not my point.
The phenom occurs more frequently in the forced run than in the natural run, so they conclude that it is that much more likely to occur. This is expressed as a percentage increase. In the present case it is 30%.
The fallacy is to then conclude that this specific phenom was influenced by human forcing. This is not implied by the finding. If the phenom occurs say 30% more often due to human forcing, than means that something like 30% of the occurrences are due to human forcing. This tells us nothing about this occurrence. It may be entirely natural.
30
This morning, after several years of study, I spotted the statistical fallacy in the attribution studies. (You are the first to hear about this.) First, attribution studies work like this. They take a large scale climate phenom, a big drought in the bushfire case. They compare the frequency of occurrence two model runs, one with and one without “human forcing.” (This is already nuts but bear with me, as it is not my point.
The phenom occurs more frequently in the forced run than in the natural run, so they conclude that it is that much more likely to occur. This is expressed as a percentage increase. In the present case it is 30%.
The fallacy is to then conclude that this specific phenom was influenced by human forcing. This is not implied by the finding. If the phenom occurs say 30% more often due to human forcing, than means that something like 30% of the occurrences are due to human forcing. This tells us nothing about this occurrence. It may be entirely natural.
40
Here is a simple example. Suppose we have a history of all natural fires in a given area. Then an arsonist starts working it, increasing the fire frequency by 30%. This does not mean that each fire is 30% due to arson. Some are and most are not. The statistic tells us nothing about what caused any specific fire.
70
you seem to confusing ignition with outcome. Your arsonist will have different success mid-winter and mid summer.
“Cause” of fires is a misleading term. The issue is about why are fires taking hold and causing so much damage.
22
It was just an abstract example of adding a new cause that increases the frequency of a certain kind of event, then incorrectly claiming that that cause is involved In every occurrence. This is what the climate change attribution studies do and it is a fallacy.
10
Note that this AGW statistic requires that the phenom in question has increased in frequency (or whatever measure is being used) since preindustrial times. This increase is attributed to human activity by hypothesis. The attribution fallacy actually starts with this assumption.
60
Hello David,
You may have missed this, but I was curious to see if some clarification could be given to the two previous criticisms of the post about the role of CO2 in the atmosphere.
http://joannenova.com.au/2020/03/wikipedia-deletes-the-list-of-scientists-who-are-skeptics-of-the-sacred-consensus/#comment-2287372
KK
20
Hi David,
It seems that you don’t intend to address the concerning issues I raised about your comment.
http://joannenova.com.au/2020/03/wikipedia-deletes-the-list-of-scientists-who-are-skeptics-of-the-sacred-consensus/#comment-2286710
There have to be serious concerns about that post.
It seems like a “drive by” to shoot down the credibility of my original comment, and it also seems to be an embarrassing mish mash of thermodynamic and atomic theory.
Anyone reading the series of comments could be concerned that this is the sort of loose thinking that has allowed the CAGW CO2 thing to so effectively control the political scene.
This leads to other questions, but maybe later.
KK
00
Sorry Keith. I am having a lot of trouble getting Jo’s pages to come in on my old iPad. Plus I can’t always follow up on my comments as I only get a few minutes a day to be here.
I looked at your first link above and did not find anything to respond to. If you do not believe photons exist then you are certainly not going to accept GH theory. (GH does not stand for groundhog. However our grandhogs have just come out of hybernation. It has been a delightfully warm winter.) They are the particle part of wave-particle duality in quantum physics.
For those who believe in photons I think my explanation was clear enough. It is really quite simple. As I said, the interesting question is why increasing CO2 has not caused atmospheric warming.
21
Thank you for responding David.
The particular comment was;
http://joannenova.com.au/2020/03/wikipedia-deletes-the-list-of-scientists-who-are-skeptics-of-the-sacred-consensus/#comment-2286710
I think that anyone with an understanding of basic physics would find that response to my original post more than a little off target.
This brings me to the “questions”.
Just what is your main motivation in visiting this blog; is it to read other opinion and share your own expertise or is there something else?
All the best.
KK
00
A very good point David. I have been saying that many academics and their followers just reference the high FDDI figure, then claim that the high FDDI figure is evidence of climate change. Of course it’s not, and as yet I haven’t seen any serious scientific debate on exactly the FDDI is so high at the moment.
I would claim that it’s the very high fuel loads that are the major reason, but as this would mean culpability of behalf of the state organisations that are supposed to be managing the forests, I’m guessing that this factor will be ignored in the coming govt discussions.
20
7 Mar: Spectator View: Through the ABC’s looking glass
‘How can you look at future technologies? They’re not invented yet!’ retorted Leigh Sales gleefully. If Lewis Carroll had created a newsreader character for Alice to spar with in Wonderland, he couldn’t have made her questioning any more absurd. As it was, it was Prime Minister Scott Morrison on the ABC’s flagship news and current affairs program, 7.30, who had to jump through the looking glass and fend off a plethora of gobbledygook, including this doozy: ‘a plan without a target is meaningless.’…
Not content with making those hare-brained comments, Ms Sales instinctively burrowed deeper down the Left’s rabbit-hole, quizzing Mr Morrison about the cost of not doing something: ‘Have you done any of the modelling of the costs of not going to net-zero by 2050? …Melbourne University’s had a look at it. They’ve found that the potential economic risk to Australia if global emissions patterns remain the same are $584 billion by 2020 and $762 billion by 2050.’…
The problem with the whole climate change/emissions reductions/energy debate is that it has turned logic on its head, forcing politicians, academics and commentators to operate in a topsy-turvy world where the immutable laws of physics and economics are forced to compete with a fantasy world of hypotheses, modelling, projections, cronyism, self-interest, dogma, fake news and alarmist hysteria. As such, any common-sense counter-argument always ends up provoking the dreaded, medieval and unscientific accusation of ‘Denier!’ (a label that covers everything from being sceptical about the AGW theory to any realistic appraisal of the limitations of renewable energy), which is pretty much the modern equivalent of ‘Off with your head!’
Following his interview last week, Mr Morrison and his media team should seriously ask themselves what is the value in continually hopping through the looking glass into the ABC’s climate wonderland?
https://www.spectator.com.au/2020/03/through-the-abcs-looking-glass/
10
just now Chris Kenny/Sky had some of the following Quentin Dempster stuff re long-time CAGW propagandist outlet news.com.au latest “Time Is Now” rubbish:
TWEETS: Quentin Dempster
4h ago: Should the government save the national newswire (AAP) from going under? (LINK CRIKEY)
6h ago: Paradigm shift in climate coverage by @newscomauHQ online backed by @JN_Institute funding is welcome. Now, what about those recalcitrant/denialist @rupertmurdoch Australian mastheads: @australian, @couriermail @dailytelegraph @theheraldsun @HobartMercury @theTiser + regionals?
re-tweets Paul Barry:
Wow! Great stuff! http://News.com.au goes full bore on climate change, busting the myths pushed by other News Corp sites and columnists. Well done.
reply to Paul Barry from Tim Stephens, Professor of International Law @SydneyLawSchool:
News online have been pretty good on climate for some time and it’s because of the younger readership that switch off when they see denial. I wish they’d also lead with this in the tabloids, and in The Australian.
Dempster 7h ago:
This @newscomauHQ research into climate change making parts of Australia almost unliveable (e.g. western Sydney with many more 35+ days) is funded by @JN_Institute. @SkyNewsAust @australian paid climate obfuscator Chris Kenny must attack this act of subversion. Speak up Mr Kenny!
Dempster posts Peter Hannam:
Places you’ll soon struggle to live in across Australia (LINK NEWS.COM.AU)
Dempster re-tweets:
Zali Steggall MP
Be honest Australia, you’re not ‘meeting and beating’ your emissions targets. For Australia, the choice between danger and opportunity is clear, and that choice must be made now (LINK SMH)
Dempster: 7h ago:
The “delinquency” on climate change coverage in Australia lies with News Corp outlets, not the ABC and other responsible media. News Corp denialism for 15 years has distorted this country’s objective response to climate change risk, ignoring the warnings of insurance actuaries. (LINK THE AUSTRALIAN/CHRIS KENNY)
https://twitter.com/QuentinDempster
9 Mar: Mumbrella: News.com.au launches series examining Australia’s changing climate: Time Is Now
News.com.au has partnered with the Judith Neilson Institute for Journalism and Ideas and the Australian Science Media Centre to launch Time Is Now – a content series focusing on how climate change will alter Australians’ way of life.
The announcement…READ ON
https://mumbrella.com.au/news-com-au-launches-series-examining-australias-changing-climate-time-is-now-620474
20
8 Mar: Reuters: Global finance must ‘align’ in climate change fight, says UK minister
by Ellen Wulfhorst; editing by Megan Rowling
UNITED NATIONS – The world of finance must line up behind the fight against global warming, a top British climate change official said, calling for a concerted effort to turn “billions into trillions” of dollars driving the transition to a green economy.
From state aid agencies and international development banks to insurers and ***pension funds, tackling climate change can be a growth opportunity, said Alok Sharma, Britain’s newly appointed business minister in charge of the COP26 U.N. climate summit…
“We need to unleash the finance which will make all of this possible and power the shift to a zero-carbon economy,” Sharma told a briefing at the United Nations on Friday.
“From solar panels to electric vehicles to tree planting, it is often finance that turns good intentions into actions.”
Sharma cited an estimate by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development that nearly $7 trillion a year will be needed over the next decade to meet the Paris accord and the U.N.’s ambitious slate of goals to solve poverty, inequality, climate change and other global ills by 2030.
Wealthy nations must honor their pledge to raise an annual $100 billion in climate finance, from public and private sources, to help poorer countries adapt to a warmer world and pursue low-carbon development, he said.
“But to move from billions to trillions, we will need all finance to align with the Paris Agreement,” he said…
Failure to act would lead to worsening droughts, heatwaves and crop failures, rising sea levels and more intense hurricanes, he warned…
U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told the briefing: “We are in an unfolding climate emergency… We have a huge task ahead of us.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climate-change-global-finance/global-finance-must-align-in-climate-change-fight-says-uk-minister-idUSKBN20V00L
10
8 Mar: Guardian: ‘I’m profoundly sad, I feel guilty’: scientists reveal personal fears about the climate crisis
Feelings of powerlessness and despair for the future are evident in letters written for a six-year ‘passion project’
by Graham Readfearn
In 2014, Joe Duggan started reaching out to climate scientists to ask them a question: how did climate change make them feel?
“I was just blown away when I started getting the letters back,” he says.
Duggan, a science communicator at Australian National University, set up a website and starting publishing the mostly handwritten responses.
“[Professor] Katrin Meissner was one of the first, and her letter really hit me. It was so … unscience-y. Almost poetic.”
“It makes me feel sad. And it scares me,” Meissner wrote…
So Duggan has returned to his “passion project” – Is This How You Feel – by asking the scientists to write again. Have their feelings changed in the intervening years?
The first 10 return letters are emotional outpourings of despair, hope, fear and determination in the age of the climate crisis, from the people helping the world understand its impacts while also being mums, dads and grandparents…
Prof Will Steffen, Australian National University
I’m angry because the lack of effective action on climate change, despite the wealth not only of scientific information but also of solutions to reduce emissions, has now created a climate emergency.
The students are right. Their future is now being threatening by the greed of the wealthy fossil fuel elite, the lies of the Murdoch press, and the weakness of our political leaders. These people have no right to destroy my daughter’s future and that of her generation…
Dr Kevin Trenberth, National Centre for Atmospheric Research (US)
For the most part my comments of 19 September 2014 still apply except that the glimmer of hope has diminished if not vanished entirely. With Obama as US president and the Paris agreement in late 2015, a glimmer of hope seemed to emerge, but with Trump and his ignorant accomplices, the hope has vanished…READ ON
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/mar/08/im-profoundly-sad-i-feel-guilty-scientists-reveal-personal-fears-about-the-climate-crisis
20
They’re sad because the trough is emptying and the Govt of the day aren’t refilling it .
20
Delusions galore… and vacuousness… simpletons.
10
But they have been well fed simpletons.
00
Brussels’ carbon border levy could face long delay, warn officials
Financial Times – 8 Mar 2020
But behind the promises, diplomats and officials have warned the mechanism is a uniquely complicated and unprecedented exercise that has already provoked resistance from powerful member states including Germany. Berlin has voiced fears that a carbon tax would intensify tit-for-tat trade retaliation from the US targeting its car industry…
7 Mar: Reuters: Coal-reliant Balkans seeking EU membership urged to weigh carbon tax
by Maja Zuvela
An EU energy official urged Western Balkan countries seeking European Union membership to consider their own carbon taxes to shelter their coal-reliant power sectors from the sudden shock likely once they have to abide by tougher climate rules.
PIC: night, chimneys, “smoke”
The European Union has set tackling climate change as a priority and aims to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions to zero by 2050.
It is also planning a carbon border tax to remove any competitive advantage those importing to the bloc could enjoy if their production is cheaper because it avoids the cost of reducing pollution…
Janez Kopac, the head of the Energy Community Secretariat, told an energy forum in the Bosnian southern town of Trebinje on Friday…
“Should the carbon pricing mechanism be introduced today, all the region’s coal-fired power plants would go bankrupt overnight,” he said.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-balkans-carbon-eu/coal-reliant-balkans-seeking-eu-membership-urged-to-weigh-carbon-tax-idUSKBN20T24D
7 Mar: Reuters: U.N. cancels some meetings ahead of climate summit due to coronavirus
by Valerie Volcovici
The United Nations has canceled some meetings in Bonn, Germany, and elsewhere planned in the run-up to a crucial U.N. climate summit to be held in Glasgow, Scotland, in November due to the coronavirus outbreak, an official said on Friday…
“Our task is made more difficult by the postponement of many meetings due to the ongoing coronavirus outbreak,” Guterres told a summit briefing session. “But even as we work to contain and address the virus, we must also look to use every opportunity to build our climate action agenda.”…
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-un-climatechange/u-n-cancels-some-meetings-ahead-of-climate-summit-due-to-coronavirus-idUSKBN20T2LJ
20
8 Mar: UK Express: Eco-friendly? It just makes us eco-angry, says NICK FERRARI
THERE’s yet more evidence that climate change protesters clearly believe there is nothing they can do nor protest they can stage that cannot be justified by the validity of their cause.
By Nick Ferrari
What arrant, uncaring, smug nonsense from these self-styled eco-warriors. Of course for the Tarquins and Olivias who come down from the shires to cause this mayhem, this is all just a jolly lark and their trust funds will ensure they don’t lose a day’s pay, and the banks to which they belong aren’t to be found on any high street. They’re private banks where you have to be invited to join…READ ON
https://www.express.co.uk/comment/columnists/nick-ferrari/1252257/climate-change-protests-campaigners-government-pledges
6 Mar: Daily Mail: RICHARD LITTLEJOHN: If coronavirus results in the collapse of more airline companies, the solution will be easy – we can just let a wind-powered train take the strain…
By Richard Littlejohn
Flybe may be the first failing company to use the pandemic as a convenient smokescreen to cut its losses. But it won’t be the last. Over the coming weeks and months, others will follow suit, some with real justification, some without.
That’s not to deny that the panic poses a genuine threat, especially to the travel industry.
Airlines are scrapping services and slashing fares drastically to mitigate the financial damage inflicted by passengers who are too frightened to fly.
Those planes which haven’t been grounded are eerily empty, condemned to roam the globe like the Mary Celeste…
If this crisis is prolonged, there’s a very real danger other airlines will follow Flybe to the knacker’s yard…
Covid-19 has done more damage to the airline industry in a few days than Extinction Rebellion could hope to manage in a month of Sundays.
At this rate, we won’t need a new runway at Heathrow. And we’ll have to convert Terminal Four into an isolation hospital-cum-morgue…
We could be on the brink of a major realignment in the way we get around in future.
Or don’t, as the case may be.
Air travel is under constant siege from the ‘climate emergency’ hysteria as it is. Ditto petrol, diesel and hybrid cars…
There’s no immediate prospect of electric vehicles taking up the slack, even if the Government carpets our green and pleasant with bird-shredding War Of The Worlds wind turbines.
In any event, city centres are being re-engineered to provide a hostile environment for cars, including electric.
Cycling isn’t the answer. Bikes may be OK for short journeys, but who in their right mind is going to cycle from Glasgow to London?…
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8081049/RICHARD-LITTLEJOHN-No-planes-Let-wind-powered-train-strain.html
5 Mar: GWPF: Boris Beware: The Political Storm Over Green Targets Will Be Even Bigger Than Brexit
by Sherelle Jacobs, The Daily Telegraph
Just when we thought the war was over, it is starting to dawn on some London hacks that it has only just begun. Beyond the Red Wall are rumblings of a new revolt, utterly unanticipated by No 10 and overlooked by a liberal media still shell-shocked by the election. With its drive to “green” the economy at any cost, the Tory party has seemingly decided to celebrate its populist landslide by bogging down the country in zero-carbon paternalism. And so we career towards another People vs Establishment conflict that could be more explosive even than that sparked by the referendum.
A savvy politician like Boris Johnson can still reverse No 10’s green strategy, which moved on this week from banning petrol and diesel cars to the revival of onshore wind farms. He must – all the ingredients for another seismic uprising are already simmering.
First is the drift towards disaster at the Treasury. With the Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, reportedly poised to end the freeze on fuel duty for all motorists, voters are referring to zero carbon as “the new austerity”…
Just as the EU establishment derives its legitimacy from the teleological assumption that the future is borderless universalism, the green establishment poised to take its place sees the planet rather than the people as the highest authority. As a result, the country is heading in a direction at odds with the ambitions of ordinary people…READ ON
https://www.thegwpf.com/boris-beware-the-political-storm-over-green-targets-will-be-even-bigger-than-brexit/
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more proof that for the CAGW mob, it’s never enough:
6 Mar: NYT: Coronavirus Could Slow Efforts to Cut Airlines’ Greenhouse Gas Emissions
By Brad Plumer and Hiroko Tabuchi
The coronavirus outbreak is pushing the world’s airlines toward financial crisis — and that is starting to complicate efforts to tame airlines’ greenhouse gas emissions, which had been growing rapidly in recent years.
Even though, in the short term, airlines have seen a sharp decline in air travel, and therefore emissions, demand is widely expected to bounce back eventually as the world resumes its embrace of flying. But in the meantime, the airline industry, an increasingly important contributor of planet-warming carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, is citing the financial pain caused by the heath scare as reason to weaken longer-term efforts to fight global warming…
Plummeting travel due to the virus could also throw a wrench in a longstanding United Nations plan to cap emissions from international flights at 2020 levels…
A preliminary analysis by the Environmental Defense Fund found that, at the high end, airlines might need to purchase up to 20 percent more credits than they were expecting to over the next three years, depending on how much air travel declines and rebounds…
As the United Nations civil aviation body prepares to meet this week to discuss the offset plan, some countries, particularly China, could try to push for significant changes to the program…
***That said, it’s tough to predict the future…READ ON
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/06/climate/covid-19-climate-change.html?
***couldn’t resist excerpting the “future” line out of context.
behind paywall:
6 Mar: New Scientist Leaked report says UK net zero climate goal may increase air pollution
By Adam Vaughan
A widespread switch to burning hydrogen to heat UK homes has been suggested to meet the country’s new climate targets – but a leaked report has warned the government that such a move risks inadvertently releasing harmful nitrogen oxide (NOx) pollution in densely populated towns and cities.
An unpublished report by air quality experts for the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) lays out the pros and cons for air pollution stemming from the UK’s new legal target of cutting carbon…
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2236385-leaked-report-says-uk-net-zero-climate-goal-may-increase-air-pollution/
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open access, lengthy, read all:
8 Mar: Australian: Conflicts raise major questions for ABC
Demise of AAP, partnership with new digital media player leave Ita Buttrose plenty to ponder.
By Brad Norington
A digital news report last month by Brisbane-based ABC journalists Kate McKenna and George Roberts was disturbing reading…
The ABC’s recipient of its brand content, InQueensland, is a commercial website that offers free reader subscriptions while running paid ads. It was started on February 10 by media entrepreneur Eric Beecher and his business partner at Solstice Media, Paul Hamra, to cash in on a lucrative, untapped media market in the sunshine state…
On the same day InQueensland published the McKenna and Roberts bylined “Stalked and controlled” report, the ABC ran the same story by the same reporters in the same media market on its own domestic digital platform…
This duplication or multi-purposing of news is undeniably lawful under the ABC Act that regulates the national public broadcaster. It bans ads on the ABC (a taboo) but allows content sales with the loophole that ads can be wrapped around content originating from the taxpayer-funded public broadcaster, once it is sold to private interests. The ABC says it uses revenue generated from such sales — received outside its triennial $3.2bn budget allocation from the federal government — to “fund the production and promotion of ABC content”…
An ABC spokeswoman said she could not comment on syndication matters that were “commercial in confidence” and reiterated, without going into any detail, that the ABC had provided syndicated content to commercial third parties for many years…
The New Daily, an online news site for which Hamra company Motion Publishing (owned by Solstice Media) is contracted to provide content, pays for video services from the ABC. It runs a special ABC-provided feed called “The News in 90 seconds” but has no agreement in place to run ABC-syndicated content, as InQueensland does.
What will be made of the opportunity opened up by media outlets no longer having recourse to the quick, politically straight and plentiful news reports from the AAP wire?
It has already been suggested by Kevin Rudd, among others, that the ABC should fill the void. Yet to do so could impinge further on the ABC’s original non-commercial purpose and contradict its charter…
Guardian Australia editor Lenore Taylor, whose publication has used AAP to cover courts and events her publication cannot, was noncommittal when asked if she would consider approaching the ABC for a news syndication agreement to replace the closing wire service, but it appears options are under consideration.
“Some of the smaller media organisations are in discussions about how they might fill the gap,” Taylor told The Australian…
Former ABC TV news and current affairs host ***Quentin Dempster, also formerly a staff-elected ABC board member, says he accepts the ABC has sold news content lawfully for many years in return for a service fee, and websites do “wrap ads” around some ABC-supplied content. Nonetheless, ads wrapped around ABC content bother him. “It’s a worry,” Dempster says…
“Public broadcasting exists to treat its audiences as citizens in a democracy, and not as consumers to be aggregated and offered up to advertisers,” Dempster says.
“That’s for the private sector. Good luck to ’em.”
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/conflicts-of-interest-in-the-new-media-landscape-raise-serious-questions-about-the-public-broadcaster/news-story/6922c181bce55d69c0d2f527e9af195c
TWEET: ***Quentin Dempster
@aapmedianet AAP to close in June. Dear Minister @PaulFletcherMP DO SOMETHING! For the sake of regional outlets/digital start-ups ABC could take over AAP on a local content supply arrangement for media industry. Please initiate negotiations with Nine/News and ABC @ItaButtrose.
7 Mar 2020
https://twitter.com/QuentinDempster/status/1236444200498950144
when you add community radio stations like 4RPH in Brisbane, which resembles ABC on steroids, pretty soon theirABC could have a near-monopoly on news in Australia!
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5 Mar: UK Parliament: Five House of Lords committees to examine the climate change challenge
Starting from next week five House of Lords committees will be asking panels of witnesses about some of the ways climate change will affect different policy areas and what the Government’s response should be.
Wednesday 11 March
At 11am, the EU Home Affairs Sub-Committee will hear from Dina Ionesco from the International Organisation for Migration, Oli Brown at Chatham House, Alex Randall from the Climate Change and Migration Coalition, and Dr Ricardo Safra de Campos from the University of Exeter on the impact of climate change on human migration. The Committee will discuss how climate change has caused human migration and how governments should address the problem, including whether those displaced as a result of climate-related events should be eligible for refugee status. The Committee will also ask how the matter should be addressed at COP26 and whether the issue is one that the UK, as host, has prioritised…
At 12pm, the EU Energy and Environment Sub-Committee will ask Gilles Dufrasne from Carbon Market Watch, Anita Lloyd from Squire Patton Boggs LLP and Peter Betts from Chatham House about international carbon markets and Article 6 of the Paris Agreement: what went wrong at COP25, what the outstanding issues of contention are, and what Government needs to do to secure an agreement later this year…READ ON
https://www.parliament.uk/business/lords/media-centre/house-of-lords-media-notices/2020/march-2020/five-house-of-lords-committees-to-examine-the-climate-change-challenge/
9 Mar: BusinessGreen: ‘2020 is a turning point’: Top corporates urge Boris Johnson to accelerate climate action
by Tom Gockelen-Kozlowski
Some of the UK’s most high-profile businesses, including household names such as Tesco, EDF, Unilever, and Coca-Cola, will today call on the government to “accelerate” efforts to tackle the climate crisis and build a net zero emission economy.
In the run up to this year’s UN Climate Summit – which will be hosted in Glasgow in November – members of the Prince of Wales’s Corporate Leaders Group have released a new briefing paper urging the Prime Minister Boris Johnson to “show strong climate leadership with a clear strategy championed from the top of government”.
Titled Acting Together: How the UK can accelerate action to deliver a thriving net zero economy that works for all, the paper argues that 2020 marks a pivotal moment for the UK green economy and environment…
But in a warning to political leaders, the report suggests the ‘low hanging fruit’ in the net zero transition may have already been largely secured, meaning the public will need to be more fully engaged with decarbonisation efforts in future…
“…This should include widespread engagement on the health, economic and environmental co-benefits of cutting food waste and changes in diet.”
The report challenges government, business, and the media to turn COP 26 in Glasgow into a “key milestone moment” that secures widespread support and focus from politicians, businesses, the public, and the media.
The paper also identifies a number of priorities it believes the government should focus on to accelerate the net zero transition, including delivering joined-up infrastructure investment, improving green heating and building insulation, rewarding carbon sequestration and climate resilience in the agricultural sector, and setting out a clear decarbonisation pathway for heavy industries such as cement, steel and chemical manufacture.
The report, which was produced with the University of Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership (CISL), also calls for “increased ambition” to drive decarbonisation across the economy and improved co-operation between Westminster and devolved administrations to drive decarbonisation efforts…
https://www.businessgreen.com/news/4012013/2020-point-corporates-urge-boris-johnson-accelerate-climate-action
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6 Mar: Bloomberg: U.K. Companies Worth $3 Trillion Told to Explain Climate Risks
By Silla Brush and Alastair Marsh
The U.K. market watchdog wants big British public companies to disclose more about their exposure to climate risks — or tell investors why they can’t.
The proposal from the Financial Conduct Authority is part of a growing effort by policy makers and money managers to confront how companies will manage the shift to a lower carbon economy
The voluntary program could cover 480 issuers with a combined market value of 2.3 trillion pounds ($3 trillion), which is about 60% of the main market at the London Stock Exchange, the FCA said. All companies in the FTSE 100 index would be captured, along with many smaller firms that opted for a premium listing…
Companies would have to reveal the risks to their business in line with the approach set out by the Taskforce on Climate-related Financial Disclosures. TCFD was founded in 2015 and is chaired by Michael Bloomberg, founder and majority owner of Bloomberg LP, the parent company of Bloomberg News. The entity aims to set global, voluntary standards.
The FCA said it stopped short of mandating disclosure because firms are still developing their abilities to gather and report data. However, the regulator said it could expand the policy to more companies and is also considering how to apply similar rules to money managers and life insurers.
BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest money manager, said in January it will request climate disclosures from the thousands of businesses it invests in…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-06/u-k-companies-worth-3-trillion-told-to-explain-climate-risks
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no doubt the relentless talk of EVs and possible legislation is, itself, depressing the automobile market:
8 Mar: InsideEVs: Demand for electric cars is growing, but it’s still a fraction of the market.
By James Fossdyke
A leading car industry body has called on the UK government to cut taxes on electric cars after the new car market declined yet again in February. The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) said drivers needed “carrots, not sticks” to help them switch to greener vehicles.
February 2020 saw more than 79,500 new cars registered, and just 3.2 percent were electric. The vast majority (60.6 percent) were petrol-powered, while the much-maligned diesel is still the second most popular fuel, making up just under 22 percent of the market. And those numbers are even higher if you include mild-hybrid petrol and diesel models…
As a result, the noticeable improvement in EV sales could not outweigh the ongoing woes of the new car market in general, and the industry slumped by 2.9 percent overall during the second month of the year.
Following this result, the SMMT, which represents the UK’s car makers and dealers, said the slump in registrations was a worry when there was so much focus on the environment. The body called on the government to encourage drivers into new, low-emission vehicles, rather than persuading them to hold on to older cars…READ ON
https://insideevs.com/news/402768/ev-tax-cut-uk/
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Andrew Bolt/Bolt Report spoke with Gerard Henderson on Sky tonite about the ludicrous ABC/RMIT so-called Fact Check where they deemed Craig Kelly’s rainfall claim on ITV UK to have been correct, but FLAWED.
the entire time Sky had these two news tickers in heavy, capitalised form, at bottom of the screen. why? who decides the wording, which is as idiotic as the “fact check”?:
ABC FACT CHECKS LIBERAL MP CRAIG KELLY
ABC: HAS BEEN NATIONWIDE DRYING TREND
reminder:
6 Mar: ABC: Craig Kelly says Australia had more rainfall in the first 20 years of this century than the first 20 years of last century. Is he correct?
RMIT ABC Fact Check
The verdict
Mr Kelly’s claim is flawed.
Data collected by the Bureau of Meteorology shows an increase in Australia’s annual average rainfall for the first two decades of this century compared to the years 1900 to 1919.
However, experts contacted by Fact Check said this was a flawed means of assessing rainfall patterns…
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-06/fact-check-craig-kelly-rainfall-drought/12016214
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h/t Paul Murray/Sky:
sadly behind paywall:
23 Feb: AFR: Mike Cannon-Brookes doesn’t merit being listened to
The Atlassian co-founder is worth $15 billion but doesn’t pay a cent of company tax in Australia.
by Joe Aston
Beneath his baseball cap (a ponderous affectation if there ever was one), Atlassian co-founder Mike Cannon-Brookes proves, yet again, to be Australia’s most incessant poseur…
https://www.afr.com/rear-window/mike-cannon-brookes-doesn-t-merit-being-listened-to-20200223-p543in
SMH spin:
10 Mar: SMH: Cannon-Brookes defends Atlassian’s tax record as he calls for corporate activism
By Cara Waters
Mike Cannon-Brookes is calling on business leaders to speak out on social issues while defending Atlassian’s tax record.
Atlassian is Australia’s most successful technology company with a market capitalisation of over$US35 billion ($53 billion) and Mr Cannon-Brookes says he has long been determined to use his influence more broadly.
He has been outspoken on climate change and Australia’s energy policies and wants other business leaders to also speak up.
“Business leaders, obviously being somewhat vocal myself at times, will say to me ‘Oh man, I totally agree with you about that but I could never say that’,” he said. “There is a feeling amongst business leaders that they can’t take these positions, they can’t say these things, they can’t be a human as a leader on a lot of issues.”
Atlassian commissioned research by PWC published on Tuesday which found Australian employees want businesses to play a stronger leadership role on key societal issues and Mr Cannon-Brookes said he hoped the research would embolden other chief executives and founders…
Mr Cannon-Brookes also defended Atlassian’s tax record after The Australian Financial Review’s columnist Joe Aston last week called him an “epic freeloader” (LINK) and said the billionaire should not be listened to on public policy because Atlassian booked over $1 billion in revenue in Australia but does not pay any company tax in the country.
“We are pretty simple at Atlassian – we follow all of the tax rules in all of the geographies we operate in,” Mr Cannon-Brookes said. “We are a large global business now and it is incredibly complicated. We make no pretence that we spend a huge amount on research and development.”…
“People can make their own judgement on whether that is good or bad for Australia, but we are doing it by the book,” he said.
Mr Cannon-Brookes pointed to Atlassian’s track record on activism and in particular its commitment to net zero carbon emissions by 2050 which he said attracted employees to the company…
https://www.smh.com.au/business/small-business/cannon-brookes-defends-atlassian-s-tax-record-as-he-calls-for-corporate-activism-20200307-p547tt.html
the SMH spin is nothing compared with this from The Guardian, which makes no mention of the AFR tax story:
10 Mar: Guardian: Mike Cannon-Brookes says staff will desert companies that do not speak out on social issues
Atlassian co-founder says research finds a third of Australian and US workers will quit if they do not like employers’ values
by Ben Butler
LINK: Mike Cannon-Brookes says Zali Steggall’s bill could repair Australia’s reputation on climate https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/mar/10/mike-cannon-brookes-says-staff-will-desert-companies-that-do-not-speak-out-on-social-issues
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how funny – alleged climate-denying Murdoch-owned news.com.au is even worse than The Guardian:
10 Mar: news.com.au: Employees want their employers to take action on social issues, cost of living and the environment
Businesses should be taking more notice of the issues that are important to their employees. The first step is finding out what they are.
by Jack Gramenz
Despite armchair analysts’ tired observation that business that “go woke go broke”, employees who work at those companies want them to continue to value their contribution to climate change and mental health, among other issues.
A new survey of 1214 employees across a variety of industries and generations towards the end of last year revealed employees want the businesses they work for to be as concerned about their impact on society as they are with how much money they make.
The Return on Action: The New Social Contract For Business report was commissioned by Australian software success story Atlassian and prepared by PwC…
Climate change and the environment ranked highly among the issues employees wanted to see big businesses take action, potentially indicating they viewed government responses inadequate.
That’s certainly the view of Atlassian co-founder and co-CEO Mike Cannon-Brookes, now a billionaire using some of his huge sums of money to combat climate change.
“Employees want us to ensure we are making the planet better, not worse. Faced with government inaction on some of our biggest problems, it’s the business community that can step up and drive meaningful change,” Mr Cannon-Brookes said in the report.
PwC chief executive Luke Sayers echoed the sentiment…
As is increasingly the case when you ask people what worries them, climate change was a dominating concern for survey respondents.
“A societal issue which probably occupies my thoughts the most is global warming and the environment in general,” a Perth Gen Y woman working in manufacturing said.
“This is because my kids have to grow up in this world and seeing how wasteful we are being and the effect this has is very scary…”…
Perhaps surprisingly, less than one-fifth of respondents said they thought businesses were being disingenuous when speaking out on societal issues…
https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/climate-change/employees-want-their-employers-to-take-action-on-social-issues-cost-of-living-and-the-environment/news-story/0c6e058aeb6181d10b6fe3319b333438
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Murdoch’s Times:
Meat eating must halve by 2050 to hit UK climate climate target
UK Times – 10 Mar 2020
Meat eating must halve by 2050 to hit UK climate change target. Britain will have to eat far less meat and dairy than previously thought to achieve climate change targets, with households required to reduce consumption by up to half, a government-funded report (by Energy Systems Catapult ESC), a not-for-profit centre, reported has warned.
The reduction that may be needed to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 is greater than that proposed last year by the Committee on Climate Change, which said that the consumption of beef, lamb and dairy would need to fall by a fifth…
10 Mar: Catapult Energy Systems: Net Zero by 2050 is possible with targeted innovation and scale up
The internationally peer-reviewed Energy System Modelling Environment (ESME) is the UK’s leading techno-economic whole system model – which as been used by the Committee on Climate Change (CCC), industry, academia and the UK Government…
(2) Land Use
•Livestock production for dairy and meat – may need to be cut by up to 50% rather than 20% depending on the success of low carbon deployment…
LINKS below include: Net Zero: Living Carbon Free
AUTHORS Scott Milne*, Kathryn Chambers, Susie Elks, Bilaal Hussain, Stuart McKinnon
*Business Leader: Insights & Evidence, [email protected]
https://es.catapult.org.uk/news/net-zero-by-2050-is-possible/
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10 Mar: BBC: Climate change: UK ‘can’t go climate neutral before 2050’
By Roger Harrabin
The UK cannot go climate neutral much before 2050 unless people stop flying and eating red meat almost completely, a report says.
But it warns that the British public do not look ready to take such steps and substantially change their lifestyle.
The report challenges the views of campaign group Extinction Rebellion.
It believes the UK target of climate neutrality by 2050 will result in harm to the climate.
The claim comes from the government-funded research group Energy Systems Catapult, whose computer models are used by the Committee on Climate Change, which advises government.
Glimmer of good news
But the authors offer some optimism too. They calculate that the UK can cut emissions fast enough to be climate neutral by 2050 – but only if ministers act much more quickly.
They say the government urgently needs to invest in three key technologies: carbon capture and storage with bioenergy crops; hydrogen for a wide variety of uses; and advanced nuclear power…
The report modelled options for society to 2050. It concluded that if decisions are made early, the cost of climate neutrality can be held down to 1-2% of national wealth – GDP.
Scenarios rely on some technologies still in their infancy, which will be controversial. For instance, it draws heavily on burning energy crops, capturing the carbon emissions and burying them underground.
It says hydrogen use will need to grow to supply industry, heat and heavy transport.
Electricity generation will need to double with heavy reliance on solar power and offshore wind…
Controversially, it calls for small, modular nuclear reactors to support three-quarters of heating in cities through district heating systems…
It warns that livestock production for dairy and meat may need to be cut by 50% rather than the 20% currently envisaged by the Committee on Climate Change. And people will need to eat less meat and dairy by the same amount…
The report was not welcomed by the National Beef Association…READ ON
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-51804212
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10 Mar: Bloomberg: Green Energy’s $10 Trillion Revolution Faces Oil Crash Test
By Akshat Rathi; With assistance by Ewa Krukowska, and Laura Millan Lombrana
In 2014, when the price of oil last crashed, the world’s governments had no agreement in place to fight climate change. The following year leaders signed the Paris accord…
Some $1.2 trillion has been poured into renewable energy, and global electric vehicle sales reached 2 million last year. Bloomberg NEF expects as much as $10 trillion poured into clean energy by 2050…
So when this week Saudi Arabia and Russia joined in a price war that wreaked havoc on global markets already rattled by the coronavirus, it looked like the major oil-producing nations reasserting their supremacy in the short term. Instead, it may prove to be another step in a longer-term trend toward ending oil’s power to hold the world to ransom…
“The impact of the oil price on broader economic growth has been decoupling ever since the 1980s,” said Shane Tomlinson, deputy chief executive officer at environmental thinktank E3G. “We could see exceptional movements in the oil price in the next few months, but I don’t think that changes the fundamental need to address climate change.”…
Weaning Off
Most economies are better off with lower oil prices.
Oil’s fall to some $35 a barrel from $55 just last week has major implications for addressing climate change. Low prices incentivize more use of oil; it squeezes the budgets of oil companies, putting clean-energy projects in doubt; and some governments feel pressured to prop up struggling oil companies. All that drives up emissions, which is bad news for global warming…
However, the collapse in oil prices weakens the shale industry’s ability to pump at a profit and even pushes some of the producers toward bankruptcies, adding to economic uncertainty surrounding the virus that may hurt Trump’s re-election bid, says Amin. Since Trump unilaterally pulled the U.S. out of the Paris agreement, it could yet tilt the presidential race in favor of a candidate more in favor of climate action…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-10/green-energy-s-10-trillion-revolution-faces-oil-crash-test
7 Mar: Forbes: Russia Yanks A Leg From U.S. Shale’s Three-Legged Stool
by David Blackmon
Manish Raj, chief financial officer at Velandera Energy, told Marketwatch that “Russia is certainly betting that price crash will cause U.S. production to crash, helping restore its dominance.” If that is really Moscow’s thought process, it is likely to be disappointed. Saudi Arabia already attempted a similar strategy to kill U.S. shale, flooding the market with crude in 2014 to create an enormous glut and drive down prices in an effort to reclaim market share.
Such a strategy demonstrates a misunderstanding of American bankruptcy laws. While the crash in oil prices that began in late 2014 did ultimately result in hundreds of shale producers declaring Chapter 11 bankruptcy, the net result of that process is that most of those companies reorganize themselves and come back with far less debt load. The strategy also fails to recognize that most producers have already put hedges in place for most of their equity production through the remainder of 2020 and beyond.
As a result of these realities, from the time the Saudis embarked on their strategy to reclaim market share in mid-2014 through August, 2017, when they initiated talks with Russia related to the OPEC+ agreement, overall U.S. production actually rose by half a million barrels per day. That increase in production came during a period of time in which more than 200 upstream companies went through the bankruptcy process.
So, if Moscow’s plan here really is to try to “kill” the U.S. shale industry, Novak and other leaders should be prepared to sustain it for a long and painful haul…
It should be noted that Novak also said on Friday that Russia would continue to cooperate with other OPEC+ nations in monitoring market conditions, providing some hope that a compromise extension of the exports limitation agreement could be forthcoming in the weeks to come. Russia has in the past rejected proposed cuts only to quickly agree to an alternative plan…
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidblackmon/2020/03/07/russia-yanks-a-leg-from-us-shales-three-legged-stool/#4ea89b88720a
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behind paywall:
10 Mar: Financial Times: Coronavirus puts electric carmakers on alert over lithium supplies
by Henry Sanderson
The global outbreak of coronavirus will accelerate efforts by western carmakers to localise supplies of lithium for electric car batteries, according to US producer Livent. The industry was keen to diversify away from China, which produces the bulk of the world’s lithium, a critical material for lithium-ion batteries…
https://www.ft.com/content/d539c20a-5fc4-11ea-8033-fa40a0d65a98
10 Mar: Reuters: China to modify environmental supervision of firms to boost post-coronavirus recovery
by Muyu Xu in Beijing and Brenda Goh in Shanghai
BEIJING/SHANGHAI – China will modify the environmental supervision of companies to help the resumption of production disrupted by the coronavirus epidemic, giving firms more time to rectify environmental problems, but stressed it was not relaxing standards…
“The environmental supervision should be adjusted in accordance with practical needs and social economic situation,” said Cao Liping, director of Ecological and Environmental Enforcement bureau at the Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE), at a press briefing on Tuesday…
The environmental inspectors will not punish firms who make a small mistake but are able to correct it in time and not cause any environmental damage. The deadline for firms to meet environmental standards will also be extended at discretion…
China has said it will exempt some firms from on-site environmental checks if they are involved in the production of materials used in the fight against the coronavirus epidemic or have low emission levels.
It has simplified environmental assessments on some medium- and small-sized firms in the service industry, including restaurant, entertainment and hotel. It has also simplified assessments for some big projects in infrastructure, manufacture, transportation and animal husbandry, which involve intensive labor and have been hit hard by the virus.
The MEE expects 300,000 firms and 55,000 projects to benefit from the new policy…
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-environment/china-to-modify-environmental-supervision-of-firms-to-boost-post-coronavirus-recovery-idUSKBN20X0AG
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9 Mar: Bloomberg: Post-Virus Stimulus Packages Could Devastate Global Climate Goals
by Bloomberg News
“The Chinese government’s coming stimulus measures in response to the disruption could outweigh these shorter-term impacts on energy and emissions,” Lauri Myllyvirta, an analyst at the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air, wrote recently in an article…
There are already signs of a coming spending binge to compensate. An investment of tens of trillions of yuan has been planned for major projects across the country this year, including gas pipelines and nuclear power plants…
In early March, satellite data showed that nitrogen dioxide levels rose across China’s industrial heartland. Daily coal use is continuing to increase at coastal power plants…
It’s not the first time in recent history China has launched an environmentally damaging stimulus plan. The country spent 4 trillion yuan ($580 billion) in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis on a development plan which helped reverse a prior drop in global emissions. All indications are the ruling Communist Party will once again put economic growth above climate concerns, at least for the immediate future.
China’s experience may not be unique. As the coronavirus impacts more nations, the future for climate goals is unclear as the economy wobbles. In a post-coronavirus world, growth may take priority over limiting emissions.
Eventually, researchers will develop a vaccine for the virus. We’ve yet to identify such a fix for our climate. If we step backward now, the chance to fight the long-term crisis could be lost…READ ON
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-09/post-virus-stimulus-packages-could-devastate-global-climate-goals
5 Mar: Bloomberg: China’s Green Goals Overtaken by Worries Over Virus-Hit Economy
by Bloomberg News
With global climate stress growing ever more apparent, the world’s biggest polluter is setting aside its lofty environmental ambitions as it confronts an unprecedented slowdown in growth.
China, which spews more carbon into the atmosphere than the U.S. and European Union combined, is being forced to give greater priority an economy that had wilted during the trade war with Washington and is now being flattened by the coronavirus epidemic…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-04/china-s-green-goals-overtaken-by-worries-over-virus-hit-economy
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