JoNova

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Climate modelers can be wrong for the next thirty years and still be right

Natural Variability is the get-out-of-jail card for climate modelers that lasts 30 years

What does a climate scientist say when they can’t predict the climate on a local, regional, or continental scale, in the near future or the historic past, and they can’t do rain, clouds, humidity or drought either?

They say the models are better than ever, and any discrepancy is just natural variability.

Climate modelers are prepared now for 30 more years of failure:

‘Most Of The Globe’ Could Experience ‘No Warming’ For 30 Years Due To Temperature-Driving Internal Variability

By  on 13. July 2020, NoTricksZone

A new study documents the dominance of internal variability in decadal-scale global temperature changes and suggests we may experience a global cooling trend during the next 15 or even 30 years despite rising greenhouse gases.

Maher et al. (2020) acknowledge that internal variability in global surface temperature variations is “a difficult concept to communicate” because we have very few observations of its impact and so we must rely on assumptions about how the climate system might work.

From the paper:

We confirm that in the short-term, surface temperature trend projections are dominated by internal variability, with little influence of structural model differences or warming pathway. Additionally we demonstrate that this result is independent of the model-dependent estimate of the magnitude of internal variability.

Internal variability is the approved term, but if you say natural variability instead, we’ll have to arrest you.

Indeed, and perhaps counter intuitively, in all models a lack of warming, or even a cooling trend could be observed at all individual points on the globe, even under the largest greenhouse gas emissions.

Warming. Cooling. Whatever. It’s all success.

If only climate scientists had evidence — they wouldn’t need to cling to random noise of storms, fires and floods.

 

REFERENCE

Maher et al., (2020) Quantifying the role of internal variability in the temperature we expect to observe in the coming decades, Environmental Research Letters, Volume 15, Number 5

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Rating: 9.9/10 (91 votes cast)
Climate modelers can be wrong for the next thirty years and still be right, 9.9 out of 10 based on 91 ratings

250 comments to Climate modelers can be wrong for the next thirty years and still be right

  • #
    Vishnu Bhagavadgita

    Gads a veritable gish gallop gattling gun. But one can see some solace (if not ROTFL) with sceptic ice age predictions. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6eswiI3KLc&t=107s
    and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wjgCaF9BGUo

    Env Res Letters – such an interesting journal. Sceptics used to love it back in the day.

    026

    • #
      Travis T. Jones

      Hey Vish, you missed one:

      Walter Cronkite warns of coming ice age

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H4JX1S9YZBo

      It seems the history of failed ice age predictions is a long one and not the sole domain of “skeptics”.

      Wait. Here’s another …

      Schneider vs. Schneider
      1978 Global Cooling Alarmism vs. 2008 Global Warming Alarmism

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DsdWTBNyvX0

      Here is Schneider in 1971 @9.20sec pointing out that global temps could decrease by 3 degrees! A new ice age!

      Fast forward to 11.53 seconds and there is Schneider saying, “Well, nobody likes to be wrong.”

      https://dotsub.com/view/b846dcff-ce80-49ca-9651-5af53d3710ba

      Come back with your gish gallops when you can tell the full truths.
      Fail.

      280

    • #
      Travis T. Jones

      Here is a bonus video for your ‘gish gallop’ collectshun.

      Schneider on climate modelling.

      3.00, S Schnieder: “ Then, you literally pollute the model.
      You of course just go to a type writer, you type in a couple of cards which end up saying, model, here is a different CO2 concentration.
      Then, part of the model which computes the greenhouse effect computes a different kind of greenhouse effect.
      You run the model so many years forward in simulated time, ‘computer, new climate, and that’s where these predictions of 2 to 3 degrees warming in 100 years come from.”

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zVQgyn-zP18

      Egad!

      160

    • #
      AndyG55

      Poor Vishy, did you ever find and empirical evidence of warming by atmospheric CO2 ?

      Or are you still the same old empty gisher you have always been. !

      Heck even your exalted “climate modellersᴸᴼᴸ” have realised that ..

      NATURAL VARIABILITY RULES..

      How long until they also overcome their anti-science enough to also realise that…

      … atmospheric CO2 has no measurable warming.

      261

      • #
        AndyG55

        oops, left out a word, last line should read…

        … atmospheric CO2 has no measurable warming effect !

        161

      • #
        Deano

        But CO2 doesn’t need to have any effect to cause warming. The records clearly show that every year for the next 100 years will be “The hottest on record”.

        40

    • #
      AndyG55

      Oh, and Vishy.. commiserations.. we all laugh at your pain. !!

      111

    • #
      R.B.

      Not sure why he couldn’t have used the natural variability excuse either.
      I say “he” because I’m one of many sceptics who wouldn’t have made a prediction of a new ice age in the near future, for two reasons. There is no good science, like with the warming, to be so confident. And B, there is no good science because the data used for the GTA is a sad joke. It would still be going up even if NY was once again under ice.

      131

    • #
      Deplorable Lord Kek

      Making testable predictions is called science.

      Making un-testable (forever adjustable) projections is called pseudoscience, aka climatology.

      280

    • #
      Sceptical Sam

      Who needs the Gish-gallop Vishnu when you have your incontestable and omniscient IPCC telling you in one simple sentence:

      “The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.”

      https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/TAR-14.pdf

      61

  • #
    Pauly

    Setting the CO2 control knob to 11 with the latest CMIP6 results doesn’t mean research dollars should be stopped. “Settled science” still has a way to go. Trust us. We are climate scientists!

    140

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      “Do not look at that little man behind the screen!”

      -Wizard of Oz

      “Wizard of Oz”

      50

  • #
    Jojodogfacedboy

    For the last twenty years, every nature show has included global warming was to blame no matter was was wrong. It was always included. At the end of these shows in the credits were thanks to government for the tax credits.

    90

  • #
    Curious George

    Climate modelers will be right, whatever it takes.

    90

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Ummm Jo, That’s an interesting post.
      All those ‘scientists’ will just keep on looking into their (flat screen) crystal balls
      To predict the climate inside their crystal balls.
      Meanwhile the rest of us will be staying warm
      With increased power bills
      in a cooling world.
      It’s a new ‘profession ‘
      ASTROLOGICAL CLIMATEERS !

      97

      • #

        Yeah, look, I know it’s off topic, but it was so funny.

        It’s a new ‘profession ‘
        ASTROLOGICAL CLIMATEERS !

        I seriously wonder how many people saw the humour in this TV promo from a year or more back. This was the best ‘line’ on TV.

        Now, these forms of TV entertainment are now endemic, and for the life of me, I can’t see why, but this was a promo for one of them, Bachelor or something.

        I guess they wanted to appeal to highbrow types or something, so they got an educated guy on, and rolled out with the usual, umm ‘ladies’.

        There he was, just standing there in his suit, as the gorgeous lady rocked up.

        “What do you do?” she asks

        “I’m an Astrophysicist,” he replies.

        She, thinking for a microsecond, and then the light bulb comes on ….. “I’m a Gemini.”

        I laughed so loud, I fell off the chair.

        Tony.

        150

        • #
          Bill In Oz

          I fell off my chair Tony laughing !
          You got it in one !

          23

        • #
          Tony K

          Since we’re off topic; son was a senior in school and related to me an occurrence in class. One of the ladies drove to school each day in a Merc. During class, an engine head asked if it was true that she drove a Mercedes. She replied, “Yes.” The guy inquired further, “Sweet! What type?” She rolled her eyes, and said, “D’uh! Benz.”
          She might be a graduated climatologist by now.

          170

          • #
            Dennis

            Many years ago lawyers, husband and wife, purchased a brand new Mercedes Benz with Diesel engine. The evening he arrived home with the vehicle he explained to his wife that it appeared to overheating in traffic and would she please check the coolant before driving too far next day.

            She looked for a filler and sighted Diesel under the refuelling cap and decided that must be German for coolant, water, and filled the tank from the garden hose.

            The vehicle did not go far before stopping.

            70

          • #
            Curious George

            There is a hilarious scene in the movie “The yellow Rolls Royce”. His Lordship walks into a dealership. While a salesman speaks about the engine, brakes, and headlights, His Lordship only worries if seats are comfortable enough.

            10

        • #
          Strop

          Re Astro boy and the Gemini.
          She was making a joke. A very good joke too.
          So I hope the laughing is with her and not at her.

          00

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        The astrological climateers are here in numbers !
        Six red Thumbies from the kiddies.
        Must be a huge shock to be named for what they are.

        36

  • #
    tom0mason

    ahahah, “internal variability” says Maher et al.’s paper.
    No. What they truly mean is natural chaotic variability! And it is something that is not accurately quantified or modeled, so instead climate catastrophists try to squeeze it into some sort of ‘known-unknowns’ box.
    CO2 warming ain’t making it (in 20+years of temperature records there’s still a ‘hiatus’), so the modeling maniacs resort to mere sophistry to try and say they do understand ‘climate change’ but don’t know about the operation of all it’s specifics.

    Model uncertainty is found to be the main driver of mid-term trends when we take a low estimate of internal variability, while with a high estimate, internal variability instead dominates. This result highlights the importance of using multiple SMILEs, with a range of estimates of internal variability in future studies investigating mid-term time-scales and underscores the importance of evaluating not just a model’s mean state or forced trend, but also its internal variability.

    IMO all that Maher et al.’s paper show is that climate models are as useful as chocolate rocking-horse excrement.

    Nature controls the climate (and atmospheric CO2 levels), not humans.

    180

    • #
      PeterC

      What causes all the variability, natural or otherwise?
      It is always there, whether the temperature record is from satellite measurements or constructed from ground based observations.
      https://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_June_2020_v6.jpg

      Take the extraordinary years 1998-1999. THe Earth supposedly heated up by more than 1degreeC in less than a year, then a year later it had cooled by more than 1C.
      But did it really heat up so much or is it due to measurement errors?

      20

      • #
        tom0mason

        From about 1850 to today the temperature has risen by about 1°C.
        This is not alarming or unusual. The little spurt that has been put on during the 1980s to late 1990s is no more climatically significant than the hiatus that has since then.

        Who knows how fast it rose during the Medieval Climate Optimum?
        Nobody truly knows but my guess is that in all probability it had been much, much faster than the current changes!
        You know it’s part of the usual long term climate cycle of fast rise up, initial rapid fall, followed by a slow lingering decline to glaciation.
        See https://climate4you.com/images/VostokTemp0-420000%20BP.gif and tell me how significant your 1°C rise is again.

        30

        • #
          AndyG55

          “The little spurt that has been put on during the 1980s to late 1990s”

          Say what ???

          There was no measured atmospheric warming during that period.

          51

          • #
            tom0mason

            AndyG55,

            My bad, I should have said “The little spurts that had been put on during the late 1980s and late 1990s are less climatically significant than the temperature hiatus that has happened since then.”

            30

            • #
              AndyG55

              Both the “spurt” in 1979 and the “spurt” in 1998 were related to El Nino events

              Releases of energy to the surface of the ocean in the tropical Pacific, spreading from there.

              41

      • #
        AndyG55

        “1998-1999″ was due to energy released from an El Nino event.

        It takes a while to spread across the oceans and dissipate or level out.

        51

        • #
          tom0mason

          “1998-1999″ was due to energy released from an El Nino event.

          Yes indeed AndyG55, and that is why it is insignificant as a climate signal.
          It is merely a very short term blip which when you look at the big picture (i.e. the last 60 or 150 years) it is irrelevant.

          30

  • #

    “… and any discrepancy is just natural variability.”

    If you can’t model the natural variability, you have no hope of modeling how the climate will respond to changing CO2 concentrations. Natural variability has been occurring for billions of years and the evidence shows that this is the furthest thing from noise. Somehow their warped little minds assume that tuning models to hindcast natural variability by presuming it’s all caused by CO2 concentrations is an appropriate methodology. Go figure …

    140

    • #
      AndyG55

      “tuning models to hindcast natural variability”

      But they DON’T.

      They tune it to match intentionally corrupted data sets, especially when it come to temperature.

      But if they reverse their data manipulations, put back the 1940s peak, and remove the UHI effects, I doubt there would be much warming anyway.

      161

    • #
      Gary Simpson

      Surely, when they sat in on ‘lesson the first in climate modelling’,natural variability would have been the first bullet point to consider.

      20

  • #
    David Maddison

    Back in the day it used to be that:

    - The scientific method was taught in school.

    -Any models had to be validated. If the model didn’t fit unaltered real world data, then the model was wrong, not the data.

    -Observations were more important than models. A real climate scientist (not the same as those that “identify” as such today) would occasionally look out the window.

    -Outlying or any other data points couldn’t be removed without justification and documenting cause.

    -For computer programs there used to be a concept of GIGO – garbage in, garbage out. People seem to think that just because today’s computers can produce pretty animations that the produced data must be true. GIGO is just as true today as it was in 1965 when the term was coined. In fact more so today because in 1965 rigorous adherence to the scientific method was expected, unlike now (at least for government-funded climate “scientists”).

    222

    • #
      ivan

      David, you must realise that we now live in the age of inclusion and ‘all must have prizes’ and university entrance depends on such things as quotas, equality, and all the other rubbish that is supposed to make up for a higher than average IQ but doesn’t.

      Keeping that in mind is it so strange that we get a bunch of “alleged scientists” that are effectively dumber than rocks, and don’t get me started on the pseudo social sciences that will never be scientific by any stretch of the imagination.

      With computing we now have ‘agile’ which means the programmers can produce garbage as long as they do it quickly and cover their ‘bugs’ with more of the same.

      Is it any wonder thw world is in the state it is?

      200

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        You can model natural variability…its just looks like a very big error bar…he he

        100

        • #
          David Maddison

          Do they even teach the use of error bars anymore? It’s rare or never that you see them applied to warmist climate “data”.

          91

          • #
            Serp

            The inclusion of error measurement was part of year eleven physics when I did it in 1964 but it’s unlikely to have survived the ravages of the assault on education which our masters launched after the ructions of 1968.

            50

            • #
              OriginalSteve

              Why do you ned error bars on science thats “settled”….

              Groan….

              70

            • #
              Another Ian

              Another example of the slide.

              Around the mid 1970′s I showed a US university English student a copy of my 1959 Qld Senior English exam papers.

              She gave them back with the comment

              “That’s interesting. Some of that I’ll see in third year”.

              50

          • #
            PeterS

            Error bars were one of the first things to be wiped from the text books as the left started using memory holes.

            60

          • #
            tom0mason

            David Maddison,

            It’s not just the errors it is a total misconception about the nature of chaos as being separate from noise.
            Without knowing the climate starting point accurately enough (i.e. ALL the weather and climate factors MEASURED to a very very high degree of precision and accuracy) they can not possibly assess the probable trajectory of future weather or climate. That and a thorough understanding of all the chaotic elements involved. Indeed Kevin Trenberth despaired of the computer models not being initialized with real or even realistic data.
            Just one of the reasons climate models are utterly useless in the short term and poppycock for the long term, and why weather forecasts are not accurate much beyond 5 days.
            Noise, i.e. truly random events, must be assessed separately (can they currently separate them from the chaotic factors?), and again measured to very high degree of precision and accuracy, to be able to account for how random events will affect the chaotic variables.
            Of course the main element that has been reduced in the models is the solar effect. IMO if this is not properly accounted for (and more research is needed) the models can never give a realistic projection of future climate.

            See http://parisinnovationreview.com/articles-en/mathematics-of-chaos for summation of some of the mathematical ideas involved.
            This video explains some of what is wrong with current models, and maybe how to get a better handle on one of the problems — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WGe-gYRSM7c

            51

            • #

              Yes, understanding chaos theory is most important when it comes to self organized systems like the atmosphere. Chaotic variability is not noise, but is the result of following an attractor to a steady state, undershooting and overshooting along the way.

              That attractor is maintaining average conformance to the laws of physics for a behavior that chaotically deviates on both sides of conformance. Chaos insures that the deviations above and below the average dictated by the attractor are equal and opposite over the long term in order to insure conformance to the laws of physics.

              It turns out that physical attractor appears to be maintaining a constant average fraction of absorption of surface emissions by the atmosphere. Cloud coverage chaotically adapts to maintain this constant fraction of absorption and the observed unusual behavior of cloud coverage can not be explained any other way. The desired fraction of absorption is given by 2(1 – 1/g) where g is the golden mean resulting in a steady state ratio of surface emissions to incident solar energy that’s also equal to the golden mean. This leads to a model of an equivalent gray body whose temperature is that of the surface, whose equivalent emissivity is 1/g and whose sensitivity is about 0.3C per W/m^2 at the current average surface temperature of about 288K.

              Note that it’s the chaotically driven self organization of the atmosphere that leads to the golden mean solution.

              For a long time, I couldn’t get past the notion that while the measured value of this ratio is within 1% of the golden mean, it had to be a coincidence since the average behavior couldn’t be that simple since someone should have already figured this out.

              The more data I examine, the more certain I’ve become that it’s not a coincidence, largely because this ratio is demonstrably independent of forcing, temperature, topology, GHG concentrations or any other factor. No matter what’s changing, this same ratio always emerges in the steady state average response and this is simply too unlikely to be a coincidence.

              20

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      David, I’m glad to see that your PDS
      Has not affected your capacity to see the truth
      On non existent global warming .
      :-)

      213

    • #
      Slithers

      The use of terms like ‘About’ or, ‘Average’ or, ‘Almost’ or, ‘Models Predict’ are great ways to ignore those error bars.
      Ask a climate scientist and he/she will not be able to complete a sentence without using some form of obfuscation regarding the error bar value.

      10

  • #
    Ken Davis

    internal variability in global surface temperature variations is “a difficult concept to communicate” because we have very few observations of its impact and so we must rely on assumptions about how the climate system might work.

    Very few observations of internal variability – like every measurement that has ever been taken in the last 400 years?

    Hard to communicate – because anyone with more than 2 neurons can see it until the ideological blindfold is applied. Gough help us!

    180

    • #
      Kalm Keith

      Don’t ask him to help: didn’t he start all of this mess: dole without end; amen: we are all equal, until we have to pay off the debt, then some of us have to work.
      Forever.

      81

  • #
    PeterS

    The CAGW alarmists stopped using climate models BECAUSE they are always wrong and so they have moved on. The alarmists now use their feelings and emotions to warn us of an impending catastrophe of climate change, such as the “how dare you” meme. Next stop; violence and destruction as shown already in sickening movements such as Marxist BLM and Antifa. The decolonising of science started a long time ago when useful things like logic, reason and truth no longer are considered relevant by such movements. For example, when some are now are saying melanin is the soul or spirit of mankind and the more one has the better, you know that logic and true science is no longer applicable, and ignorance is the rule of the day.

    180

    • #
      Terry

      A modern-day ‘Dark Age’ replete with saints and sinners, heretics and witch-hunts.

      What could possibly go wrong?

      80

    • #
      Dennis

      “Cancel Culture”, leftists in denial and demanding that woke prevails over facts.

      30

    • #
      Slithers

      I just watched a twitter video of a group of people carrying weapons attack some police officers on Brooklyn Bridge in NY, The officers retreated rather than respond.
      Law and Order is itself under threat.

      00

  • #
    David Maddison

    All these “climate modelling” papers always look they are written by this auto-generator.

    https://pdos.csail.mit.edu/archive/scigen/

    SCIgen is a program that generates random Computer Science research papers, including graphs, figures, and citations. It uses a hand-written context-free grammar to form all elements of the papers. Our aim here is to maximize amusement, rather than coherence.

    92

  • #
    Kalm Keith

    There is only One Model linking atmospheric CO2 levels to atmospheric temperature.

    Sadly for IPCCCCCV.6 it shows that atmospheric Carbon Dioxide levels are Driven by atmospheric Temperature.

    Nigh on half a million years of data can’t be wrong, and so the unchallenged driver of Global Temperatures is found in the science of Orbital Mechanics.

    KK

    90

    • #
      David Maddison

      The barycentre of the solar system was recently confirmed to be outside of the Sun and Jupiter is the biggest influence on the Sun.

      This was confirmed in recent work using pulsars as natural GPS-like satellites to establish the location of the barycentre within 100 metres. The barycentre had to be determined for the purpose of gravitational wave observations.

      https://news.vanderbilt.edu/2020/06/30/to-find-giant-black-holes-start-with-jupiter/

      And yet people still ignore the influence of Jupiter on solar activity.

      132

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        Interesting science David.
        But how it it relevant to the Earth’s climate ?

        29

        • #
          David Maddison

          Because it demonstrates the strong influence of planetary systems on the Sun which is the main driver of climate.

          161

          • #
            WXcycles

            Does a particular solar system orbital geometry produce sustained sun spot declines over several decades though? Seems to me an orbital arrangement is too dynamic to create and sustain that. I’m not presuming here this led to the LIA, just pointing out that I don’t see how planetary position can be the main-driver of thousand year scale solar variability.

            31

            • #
              David Maddison

              Some interesting info here.

              What do you think?

              https://www.jupitersdance.com/

              21

            • #
              Bill In Oz

              If the Earth is effected so that it moves away from the sun or closer to the sun
              The climate will be impacted.

              22

            • #
              Slithers

              The Russian Lady Physicist (I forgot her name) showed that the Sun’s internal dynamo(s) are significant drivers of sunspot activity with cycles linked to Jupiter’s movement around the sun.
              The off-set Bari-center, which cannot be anything else in a planetary system, is a slow cosmic scale driver of all things.

              50

        • #
          Kalm Keith

          Well.
          Bill.
          Just for you.

          If the Earth, on which we live, made a perfect circular orbit around the Sun, our Earth would be experiencing unprecedented regular unvarying weather. Still have winter/summer, but within constant bounds.

          Unfortunately the other planets mess this about a bit.

          David points out that it’s even worser than we thought with Big boy Jupiter forcing us to orbit around a point somewhere outside the exact centre of the Sun.
          This irregular trajectory may mean that we have periods where the Earth is either closer to or further from the Sun and so experience Jupiterian induced weather cycles whose periodic effect could extend to thousands of years.

          Subject to correction by David, of course.

          KK

          91

          • #
            Bill In Oz

            Thanks for that. Keith.
            Well explained.
            I asked the question because David did not explain it at all.

            210

            • #
              David Maddison

              I said:

              And yet people still ignore the influence of Jupiter on solar activity.

              62

            • #
              Bill In Oz

              Keith 6 people ( ? ) don’t like me saying thank you to you for that explanation.
              How every very odd.
              How very discourteous of them.
              How grumpy of them.
              Ohhh well i don’t give a sh#t for their scats

              28

              • #
                Kalm Keith

                Bill, it wasn’t the question.

                Unfortunately you have caused concern about the “tone of the blog” and to be honest it’s probably something we all do; it’s just that the rest of us do it maybe once a month.

                You seem to let go more frequently, and that would be O.K., but then you go and give someone a real trashing.

                As you say the blog is mainly about science and the impact of politics on how science is interpreted and used.

                That’s a big job for all of us to attack.

                61

              • #
                Bill In Oz

                Nahhhh, It’s the Pandemic Derangemnet Disorder ( PDS )
                affecting their capacity to be civil on the blog.
                :-(

                05

            • #
              Bill In Oz

              Keith 6 people ( ? ) don’t like me saying thank you to you for that explanation.
              How every very odd.
              How very discourteous of them.
              How grumpy of them.
              Ohhh well i don’t give a sh#t for their scats.

              28

        • #
          Bill In Oz

          And 6 idiots now think I should NOT ask David a question
          How utterly wonderful on a blog which esteems science.
          Ho hum !
          I do not give a sh#tty fig about such attempts at control.

          28

          • #
            Annie

            I’ve given you red thumbs for these last three rude posts, though I didn’t for your thankyou one. You really can be the limit Bill.

            60

            • #
              Bill In Oz

              Annie, When there are lots of trashy comments
              By biased and ignorant people.
              Yes I hit them for six.
              I tolerate fools hardly ever in face to face or here.

              08

    • #
      Kalm Keith

      For more detail look up Euan Mearns’ great graph :
      The Vostok Ice Core and the 14,000 Year CO2 Time Lag.

      90

  • #
    Travis T. Jones

    ‘Australian children aren’t going to know what snow looks like’ update …

    >> 30 years? Their computer models couldn’t predict 6 ‘clock at 5.30!

    Storm Journal, July 12-14 – South East Flow Dumps Big Snow Totals Across The Snowy Mountains

    “In the lead up to the snowfall the forecast models had the snow totals jumping around each day, with a mix of rain and snow on the weekend and the snowline expected around 1650 metres.
    On Thursday July 9, the Mountainwatch models were calling 50cms for 1830m across the Snowy Mountains, but the following day they had dropped back to 20-25cms.

    The models changed for the better the next day, the Grasshopper writing in his latest season update on Saturday that a low-pressure system that would park itself off the NSW coast and direct a moist southeast flow over the Australian alps, but temps would be marginal: …

    According to the Grasshopper it was the American model, the GFS, which was the first to indicate something much bigger and, in the end it performed the best out of all global weather models.

    “Correspondingly, our own Mountainwatch model, which is based upon the GFS, was a forerunner in showing big snowfall figures, although these did fluctuate between models runs, as did freezing levels,” the Grasshopper said.

    “The UKMO and ECMWF models eventually picked up the scent during the weekend, but never fully had a grasp on the situation.
    When forecasting, I survey all models and bias towards those that make the most sense and show consistency, and thus smooth out any big jumps.
    Even so, I underestimated just how much snow would fall, as well as snow levels.”

    https://www.mountainwatch.com/Snow-news/storm-journal-july-12-14-south-east-flow-dumps-big-snow-totals-across-the-snowy-mountains/

    link via https://www.iceagenow.info/snowy-mountains-australia-nearly-40-inches-of-snow-in-24-hours/

    Bonus: End of Australian snow in sight – 2012

    ““We’ve predicted by 2020 to lose something like 60% of the snow cover of the Australian Alps,” she (Griffith’s Associate Professor Catherine Pickering) said.

    https://news.griffith.edu.au/2012/09/05/end-of-australian-snow-in-sight/

    90

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Travis, Has anyone ever made a retraction on these predictions ?
      Or are we expected to simply forget it was ever made,
      Just like Astrologers do with their horoscopes?

      Maybe that is what we should call them : ‘Climatological crystal ball horoscopes’

      37

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        We just believe they are right and dont question. ..as is the way of all cults….apparently.

        60

    • #
      Analitik

      ‘Australian children aren’t going to know what snow looks like’ update …

      Maybe they were prescient on the CoViD lockdown…

      10

    • #
      Analitik

      [Duplicate]

      10

    • #
      Graeme#4

      Another failed prediction to add to my collection. Thanks Travis.

      10

    • #
      Slithers

      What is really interesting about this failure to model/predict the snowfall is the TOTAL lack of reporting this failure in the MSM!

      20

  • #
    Another Ian

    It can be postulated that Ralph Nader helped invent “grey literature”.

    After his demolition of the Chevrolet Corvair his next target was the VW Beetle.

    But people were learning and Road and Track read the literature cited. And found that it had been diddled to the extent that they concluded that similar citation methodology could make it the safest car on US roads.

    And I guess an undocumented umm! “commercial in confidence” model might be the ultimate in “grey literature”.

    Incidently when Nader had his bid for president you only found mention of that VW report on anti-Nader sites

    40

  • #
    Zigmaster

    I’m waiting for alarmists to conclude that the failure to warm as expected is due not to natural variation but due to trillions spent on renewables already having an impact. In fact the logical conclusion is that we can have even greater success if we just spend more.

    70

    • #
      AndyG55

      That would mean that they would have to show that atmospheric CO2 levels were dropping in response to all these “renewablesᴸᴼᴸ”

      But they aren’t !

      100

      • #
        David Maddison

        AndyG55, don’t make the mistake of assuming logical thoughts apply to warmists. You’ll just end up with cognitive dissonance.

        122

      • #
        Slithers

        But don’t you know that CO2 change lags the temperature by at least 800 years so cannot expect to see any reversal much before 2820!
        /sarc off

        10

    • #
      David Maddison

      That’s a scary thought.

      32

    • #
      Another Ian

      You mean the response to burning all that money?

      50

  • #
    Peter Fitzroy

    A model debunking other models?

    Is there one dataset which is not showing warming?

    Is natural variability also known as weather?

    Were the Radiosondes correctly adjusted to measure temperature from sea level to the upper troposphere?

    How does an ephemeral event like a cloud effect an averaged data set like climate?

    Is ice volume the same as ice extent?

    “‘Most Of The Globe’ Could Experience ‘No Warming’ For 30 Years Due To Temperature-Driving Internal Variability”

    How is ‘Most’ (let’s quantify it at 51%) experiencing no warming work in a global system? Is there a cooling bubble?

    413

    • #
      el gordo

      Lots of good questions, should keep us all busy.

      ‘Is there a cooling bubble?’

      No, but we know for a fact that there are warm blobs in the ocean.

      61

    • #
      el gordo

      ‘Is ice volume the same as ice extent?’

      No they are quite different, the Arctic ice extent is well below average.

      https://sunshinehours.net/#jp-carousel-18848

      51

    • #
      Kalm Keith

      Hubble Bubble.

      That rhymes well. We need more posts like that.

      70

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Fitz, you ask,
      “Is there one dataset which is not showing warming?”
      What ‘data sets’ ?
      They have all been homogenised and corrupted
      And do not exist in real world.
      Who did this stupidity ?
      The Climate Astrologers with their flat screen crystal balls !!
      Bugger !

      75

      • #
        Another Ian

        “The Climate Astrologers with their flat screen crystal balls !!”

        Bill

        They’re members of the “empixellated” – too much screen, not enough outside in the big world

        40

      • #
        Peter Fitzroy

        Then if all the data is bunk, any analysis of models using that data must also be bunk. Therefore the study referred to in this post is bunk. You can’t have it both ways.

        314

        • #
          AndyG55

          Make up ANY excuse for your dying mantra.. Poor Peter.

          Even the people making up climate models are starting to admit they are nonsense.

          Make you should start facing that FACT and start to live in the real world.

          Have you found that paper with empirical evidence of warming by atmospheric CO2 yet ?

          You do know, of course, that the one data set worth a chop, shows that the warming since 1979, coldest year in the NH since 1900 (before data adjustment), has come ONLY at El Nino events.

          No evidence of any anthropogenic CO2 warming ANYWHERE. !

          61

          • #
            Peter Fitzroy

            https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/siberian-heatwave-of-2020-almost-impossible-without-climate-change/

            I know that some posters here are displaying data immunity, but try to keep up

            37

            • #
              el gordo

              Heatwaves were common in Siberia during the MWP and RWP.

              50

            • #
              Graeme#4

              Peter, care to explain why Verkhoyansk also reached 37.3 C in 1988? And it was over 38 C also in 1915? That particular location regularly fluctuates from minus 68 C to the high 30s. Also it’s just inside the Arctic Circle. Try reading Wikipedia for more information about the regular vast temp changes.

              70

            • #
              Peter Fitzroy

              Proof of data immunity

              13

            • #
              Slithers

              There is a perfect example of obfuscation, it ‘Almost’ makes sense!

              00

            • #
              mikewaite

              Peter ,
              “Siberia” covers an enormous area. Could you be more specific about the part of Siberia you are referring to.
              Thanks to the Crutem4 visualisation via Google earth one can see the seasonal and annual land temperatures for, in some cases, the past 100 years and just picking a few of the dozens of gridboxes at random there are cases where temperature anomalies were as great in the mid 20th C as now. Also the seasonal data is interesting in that winter month anomalies over the past century seem to be greater than the summer month anomalies. The only area that I have seen so far where the anomaly is really high (7-8C compared to 2-3C) is on the very edge of the ocean, Barent sea region.
              BTW Some interesting data from Australia Is southern WA cooling relative to other states? If it is perhaps the vicinity of th Indian Ocean is a factor.

              00

            • #
              AndyG55

              Attribution studies. LOL !!!!

              One step removed from crystal ball gazing.

              Built from erroneous understanding of natural variability, almost certainly linked in with FAILED climate models

              You HAVE TO BE JOKING !!!

              10

      • #
        el gordo

        Bill the important thing is that we take the opportunity to advance our understanding of the world in time and space.

        ‘During the Renaissance, court astrologers would complement their use of horoscopes with astronomical observations and discoveries. Many individuals now credited with having overturned the old astrological order, such as Tycho Brahe, Galileo Galilei and Johannes Kepler, were themselves practicing astrologers.’ wiki

        30

        • #
          Bill In Oz

          Gordo , As the 17th & 18th centuries passed
          We escaped from the thrall of Astrology dominating Natural Philosophy” (= Science)
          And that was a LIBERATION !
          We have now entered a time when computer driven sciency astrology dominates climate science.
          It’s computer generated drivel
          And needs to be named as such

          32

          • #
            el gordo

            Computer models are tools and in its day astrology was broadly accepted as science, drawing up forecasts required mathematical skill.

            Junk in junk out, but maybe Kepler discovered something that we have missed.

            22

    • #
      el gordo

      ‘A model debunking other models?’

      That is how climate change theories operate, its modern academic practice. Putting all that aside, if we could just focus on why there has been a hiatus in world temperature for 20 years? The elephant in the room is natural variability.

      https://climatechangedispatch.com/geologic-heat-ocean-warming/

      70

    • #
      WXcycles

      Is there one dataset which is not showing warming?
      Is natural variability also known as weather?

      Going against the trend: Cooling in the Southern Ocean – by Peter Rüegg, ETH Zurich – MAY 6, 2020
      https://phys.org/news/2020-05-trend-cooling-southern-ocean.html

      Study: Before warming a bit, Antarctica underwent 1,900 years of cooling – TNR / November 26, 2017 – By Michael Bastasch
      http://www.truenorthreports.com/antarctica-underwent-1900-years-of-cooling

      https://dailycaller.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/antarcticacooling.png

      20+ Scientists: ‘No Continent-Scale Warming Of Antarctic Temperature Is Evident In The Last Century
      http://notrickszone.com/2017/03/27/20-scientists-no-continent-scale-warming-of-antarctic-temperature-is-evident-in-the-last-century/

      http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Holocene-Cooling-Antarctic-Stenni-17-West-Antarctic.jpg

      11 of 11 coastal Antarctic stations show ZERO warming over past decades… But instead Antarctic COOLING – By Strange Sounds – Jun 4, 20194809
      https://strangesounds.org/2019/06/antarctica-cooling-trends-no-global-warming-maps.html

      https://strangesounds.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/antarctica-cooling-not-warming.png

      Is 1,900 years of SH cooling local weather variability?

      91

    • #
      AndyG55

      Natural variability trumps climate models.

      Glad you seem to comprehend that at least

      Even though you KNOW that the climate models have erroneous, un-scientific, unsubstantiated warming by atmospheric CO2 built into them.

      Is there ONE paper anywhere that shows that the highly beneficial warming since the coldest period in 10,000 years is anything but a mix of solar effects, UHI surface data effects smeared over unwarranted areas, and of course the continuous “adjustment” of data.

      You STILL haven’t produced it. !!

      Radiosondes show a much smaller warming that the models.. also show that the atmosphere is in thermal equilibrium, thus CO2 cannot cause any warming.

      Cloud effects over the tropics are inversely linked to global temperatures.. no surprise there, hey.

      Arctic sea ice is in the top 5-10% of the last 10,000 years. In 1922 there was no sea ice around Svalbard in winter

      There is still sea ice on the northern shore of Svalbard this year, even though its summer in the NH !

      If all the adjustments and UHI effects of surface temperatures were removed, it is highly likely that there has been NO SIGNIFICANT WARMING of the globe since around 1900.

      So really Peter.. you are just making plaintive bleating sounds, in a vain but comedic attempt to support a dying mantra. !

      91

      • #
        Peter Fitzroy

        UHI is a man made local climate change, if not what is it?

        42

        • #
          el gordo

          The magnetic North Pole is rapidly moving towards Siberia.

          40

        • #
          Slithers

          UHI is an indication of local WEATHER change!

          11

        • #
          AndyG55

          “UHI is a man made local climate change”

          Its a micro-climate change, smeared over massive areas that it should never be applied to.

          It is the main problem of the surface station data, after “adjustments”

          It has absolutely NOTHING to do with any real “global” warming.

          But you knew that, didn’t you.

          Why do you continue with these mindless attempts at distraction ??

          Produce real evidence of warming by human emitted atmospheric CO2

          Anything else is pointless NONSENSE.

          00

    • #
      AndyG55

      “A model debunking other models?”

      NO, you show you lack of comprehension, yet again !!

      It is the models debunking THEMSELVES !

      71

    • #
      Graeme#4

      “Were the radiosondes correctly adjusted to measure temperature at sea level”
      Ahh, no Peter, because at many release sites, it wasn’t sea level.

      40

    • #
      robert rosicka

      Giles is 592 metres above sea level Peter !

      40

      • #
        Peter Fitzroy

        So how were they calibrated?

        11

        • #
          robert rosicka

          Just curious Peter , what instrument do they calibrate at sea level to measure the height the balloon gets to in its travels ?

          30

          • #
            Peter Fitzroy

            That’s my point Robert

            00

            • #
              robert rosicka

              Don’t they use a GPS to measure height and location ? If so why would that need calibration?

              00

            • #
              AndyG55

              It is yet again noted that Peter is basically ignorant of how physics and measurements work.

              Thing is, it is pointless to try and teach him.. He does not want to know.

              11

  • #
    MCMXLIII

    The IPCC have proved that natural variability works in only one direction.
    They have done so by declaring that ‘human influence has been the dominant cause of observed warming since 1950′ and subtracting that assumed effect of human CO2 emissions thus.
    QED.

    60

  • #
    Deplorable Lord Kek

    30 years ago: there are 10 years left to stop thermageddon

    15 years ago: there are 10 years left to stop thermageddon

    NOW: there are 10 years left to stop thermageddon

    150

  • #
    David Maddison

    Related big picture issue:

    Do you know O’Sullivan’s First Law?

    From Wikipedia:

    O’Sullivan’s First Law describes the leftward drift of many politicians, leaders, and organizations. First coined by John O’Sullivan in 1989, it states: “All organizations that are not actually right-wing will over time become left-wing.”

    It relates to Rudi Dutchke’s “long march through the institutions”.

    93

    • #
      David Maddison

      The comment about Dutchke was from me, not Wikipedia.

      33

    • #
      PeterS

      Yes we saw this law enacted in real-life with Turnbull at the helm of the LNP. Actually not much has changed since he was “deposed”. Go figure.

      111

      • #
        Analitik

        Did anyone else see him pop up on television with the release of he letters between Sir John Kerr and Buckingham Palace prior to the double dissolution? The guy just won’t go away

        70

  • #
    Travis T. Jones

    Solar Cycle Update
    JULY 14, 2020

    Some people worry that the sun could “get stuck” in Solar Minimum, producing a mini-Ice Age caused by low solar activity.
    There is no evidence this is happening. On the contrary, the next solar cycle (Solar Cycle 25) is showing unmistakable signs of life.

    https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2020/07/14/solar-cycle-update/

    70

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      The red line is a PREDICTION Travis.
      We will see what the Sun actually does over the next few years.
      Please do not indulge in astrological Sun predictions.
      It encourages the kiddies to do the same
      With their flat screen crystal balls
      About the Earth’s climate
      :-)

      25

  • #
    Ari Okkonen

    I have waited for this notice because it is easy to see that ca. 65 year cycle in North Atlantic sea surface temperature. Now we are few years past of the top of the cycle. Most of the “no warming” will be cooling.
    Please, find my analysis of North Atlantic sea surface temperatures in ResearchGate.

    90

  • #
    George McFly......I'm your density

    “Abstract: On short (15-year) to mid-term (30-year) time-scales how the Earth’s surface temperature evolves can be dominated by internal variability as demonstrated by the global-warming pause or ‘hiatus’. In this study, we use six single model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs) and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) to visualise the role of internal variability in controlling possible observable surface temperature trends in the short-term and mid-term projections from 2019 onwards. We confirm that in the short-term, surface temperature trend projections are dominated by internal variability, with little influence of structural model differences or warming pathway. Additionally we demonstrate that this result is independent of the model-dependent estimate of the magnitude of internal variability. Indeed, and perhaps counter intuitively, in all models a lack of warming, or even a cooling trend could be observed at all individual points on the globe, even under the largest greenhouse gas emissions. The near-equivalence of all six SMILEs and CMIP5 demonstrates the robustness of this result to the choice of models used. On the mid-term time-scale, we confirm that structural model differences and scenario uncertainties play a larger role in controlling surface temperature trend projections than they did on the shorter time-scale. In addition we show that whether internal variability still dominates, or whether model uncertainties and internal variability are a similar magnitude, depends on the estimate of internal variability, which differs between the SMILEs. Finally we show that even out to thirty years large parts of the globe (or most of the globe in MPI-GE and CMIP5) could still experience no-warming due to internal variability”

    Gee…I wonder what they would call a spade?

    120

    • #
      robert rosicka

      A lot of fancy words used just to say “we don’t know” .

      100

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      I wonder how years of his life
      The authors spent learning
      All the jargon, cant and bullsh#t
      Needed to write this crap ?
      The goal of course is total mystification.
      Just like astrologers used to do with their star charts & crystal balls.

      74

    • #

      Scientific writing can always be made more clear but it looks more likely that you are complaining because you don’t understand it.

      59

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        Now that is the predictable response of mumbo jumbo expert !
        It’s crap !

        25

        • #

          Sounds like you put as much effort into understanding it as you do into paragraphing.

          How many abstracts have you ever read?

          55

          • #
            Bill In Oz

            Are you now attempting to use your flat screen crystal ball to read my mind GA ?
            Is that how you operate in the world : mind reading ?
            Well if so you’ve flopped.
            Try some real science for a change !

            That abstract is attempting to conceal nonsense with verbiage.
            It is not even in English though it uses English words.
            It’s is a special language which used to be called Mumbo Jumbo.
            But which especially for you, I will rename “Scienk-glish”
            (I’m proud of myself for inventing that name. I’ll use in future for any such sceincy nonsense.

            36

            • #

              it is hard to parse what you are saying since it is written so poorly. You lost me on verbiage as the abstract is very low on verbs. You also seem to be reading the minds of the authors as to their intentions.

              [Any interest in the topic Gee Aye or just Bill's Grandma?]AD

              21

      • #
        Peter C

        “Scientific Writing can always be made more clear but it looks like you are complaining because you don’t understand it”

        Maybe some good points here. Gee Aye seems to concede that the construction of the abstract could be improved, whereas Bill says there is no meaning contained in the assembly of words.
        I read the Abstract. I thought I could understand the first sentence but after that???

        My interpretation of the first sentence is: The global Warming Pause or Hiatus can be explained by Internal Variabilty.

        I republish the Abstract here to see if anyone else can decipher what it means. Should I be surprised that the editor of Environmental Letters let this through?

        Abstract
        On short (15-year) to mid-term (30-year) time-scales how the Earth’s surface temperature evolves can be dominated by internal variability as demonstrated by the global-warming pause or ‘hiatus’. In this study, we use six single model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs) and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) to visualise the role of internal variability in controlling possible observable surface temperature trends in the short-term and mid-term projections from 2019 onwards. We confirm that in the short-term, surface temperature trend projections are dominated by internal variability, with little influence of structural model differences or warming pathway. Additionally we demonstrate that this result is independent of the model-dependent estimate of the magnitude of internal variability. Indeed, and perhaps counter intuitively, in all models a lack of warming, or even a cooling trend could be observed at all individual points on the globe, even under the largest greenhouse gas emissions. The near-equivalence of all six SMILEs and CMIP5 demonstrates the robustness of this result to the choice of models used. On the mid-term time-scale, we confirm that structural model differences and scenario uncertainties play a larger role in controlling surface temperature trend projections than they did on the shorter time-scale. In addition we show that whether internal variability still dominates, or whether model uncertainties and internal variability are a similar magnitude, depends on the estimate of internal variability, which differs between the SMILEs. Finally we show that even out to thirty years large parts of the globe (or most of the globe in MPI-GE and CMIP5) could still experience no-warming due to internal variability.

        And of course I invite Gee Aye to tell us what he makes of it.

        40

        • #

          First sentence: why they did it. Second sentence what they used to analyse the problem (read the paper to get the details). Third sentence states that their method repeats the primary observations and that over short periods internal variation is a more dominant factor than measurable structural factors. Fourth sentence is a qualification unique to this study and is followed by 2 sentences detailing aspects of this. Sentence 7 introduces the mid-term results from the analysis. The final part is some speculation based on resolving whether model uncertainty is of a magnitude so that it can’t cope with the internal variability that they think occurs.

          00

    • #
      AndyG55

      Heck, Its almost as if they KNOW there is a cooling trend coming

      …. and are trying to justify their livelihoods as modellers. ;-)

      91

  • #
    John

    The old “internal variability” excuse again! The IPCC has been using it for years.

    The El Nino-Southern Oscillation is regarded as internal variability, and therefore ignored by the IPCC, but its impact on global temperatures is accepted by all scientists. Further, when you get a sudden increase in the number and/or severity of EL Nino events they’ll push temperatures up AND push any trend that starts before that increase higher.

    Question:
    When was the last time you saw a temperature graph from the IPCC that had all known “internal variability” removed?

    I suspect it doesn’t suit the IPCC’s argument to show how much these factors impact temperature.

    40

    • #
      WXcycles

      The old “internal variability” excuse again! The IPCC has been using it for years.

      Not in Summer.

      31

  • #
    TdeF

    And Presidential hopeful Joe Biden is also promising $2 Trillion for Climate Justice. Bernie Sanders says it is not enough. The planned destruction of America is just an election away and Climate Justice is a big part of it. And his speech includes at least one literal quote from Mao Tse Tung but his speech writer admittedly draws on Mao for quotes.

    Biden is a surrogate for extreme unelectable socialists Sanders and Warren and so a compromise vehicle for every mad idea in AOC’s Green New Deal. Even the tech giants must be thinking this is going to hurt. Roosevelt’s New Deal was to rescue an America from the depression and then the dust storms cold and farm collapse of the 1930s. The Green New Deal is going to destroy a buoyant and rampantly successful and powerful United States. If economic and social warfare was not enough, now we have open biological warfare against the US. Bubonic plague has turned up in Mongolia and in the squirrels of Colorado. This attack on American values and culture and history is supported by the entire tertiary education system which teaches that America is the problem and conservatives are called fascists when the fascists were socialists. But then no one teaches European history.

    The fact that there is nothing wrong with the climate is irrelevant. It’s just another made up cause from the anti democratic swamp. And does anyone at all believe that defunding the police and sending in mental health care workers will stop the violence and open random m*rder on the streets in black communities? No. 42% of the murders and 50% of the burglaries are by Black people, despite being only 13% of the population. And people are told by the press it’s all due to white supremacy. The same racist society which elected a black President to represent a minority.

    None of it is true. And slavery and serfdom and universal poverty and starvation were part of every country’s history. And in the new world of energy, airconditioning, good housing and plentiful food we are told that the climate is the biggest problem facing humanity. Utter rubbish.

    181

    • #
      David Maddison

      Well said TdeF.

      91

      • #
        TdeF

        And people really believe electing a doddering octogenarian white politician as proxy for two other white octagenian contenders Warren and Sanders will somehow fix all the problems in the minority black community that eight years of a popular Black President did not touch? That’s white supremacy for you. What about the 87% of the US which is not black?

        And Biden is promising to change the world’s climate from pole to pole? Which means America will get rid of fossil fuels by 2050 with wood, corn biofuels, electric cars, windmills and solar farms and trains? How does that work? Or am I missing something? And think of all those Green jobs.

        This is fully supported by the press and especially the celebrities in Hollywood and night time television hosts who spent less time at school that Greta Thunberg? You have to think doddering Biden would be the biggest disaster in American history. And what’s next, deface the Mount Rushmore, pull down the Lincoln memorial, rename Washington to Obama and end all border controls? Why?

        141

        • #
          OriginalSteve

          Apparently his son Hunter has been of interest recently……

          Biden senior is just a placeholder for Hellary…

          70

          • #
            Bill In Oz

            Hillary is a dead woman walking.
            Which raises the issue of who will be the Dimocerat VP candidate.
            They will need a good one if the Dims get up,
            As Biden is on his last legs.

            23

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      But TdeF, the alternative candidate
      Believes in miracles & magical thinking
      Like it’s “Better not to test’ !
      I feel sad for Americans faced with such a situation of
      Such an awful choice In their election.
      But maybe a miracle (? ) will happen.
      Maybe they will ALL stay away and not vote.
      What would happen then ?

      26

      • #
        TdeF

        When did the press have anything good to say about Donald Trump? And yet he was elected. Why?

        The press picture painted daily of Donald Trump is amazing, which should make you think and consider for a second it is not true. They never miss an opportunity to misquote, misrepresent, abuse, denigrate and belittle the US President and all his family. Biden and Obama and the Clintons are untouchable.

        Trump is a very different character to the one portrayed in the media and he has done more for black people and the economy and to end wars than eight years of Obama and Biden who did absolutely nothing, except set fire to the Middle East and send all the jobs to China. As have we. And Trump is not promising to spend $2Trillion on Climate Justice.

        I would have thought it a no brainer.

        But you are welcome to believe everything you read. Climate and BLM and open borders are all fake.

        131

        • #
          truth

          All of the US networks except FOX live to defame Trump as do the Deep State bad actors at FBI and CIA…they are totally consumed by their hatred….a phenomenon never before seen by America or the rest of the world….and one that no country can survive whole IMO.

          If Durham defers the reckoning on the Deep State and Democrat criminality vs Trump until after the election on the pretext that to reveal all now would be to interfere in the election campaign …as it’s said he’s considering…then all will be lost…for America and for the Western democracies or what’s left of them.

          If he defers…Durham would in fact be interfering in the election in the worst possible way ….because he would be making absolutely sure as only he has the power to do…that the American people will be required to vote without knowing the extent of the treachery and criminality that Trump has had to deal with for the whole of his Presidency….with even Australia’s DFAT doing him damage.

          All of the plotting and lawbreaking by the Clinton campaign and the Deep State will go unpunished of course if the Democrats win…and the US will be helpless against China and Russia.

          It would not be safe for Australia to be in an alliance with the criminal party that the Democrats are…not a safe enough ‘justice’ system for innocent people eg young travelling Australians to rely on.

          Newt Gingrich is right…that this is the most important US election since Lincoln….everything …including and especially the values of Western civilization… is at stake.

          These 3+ years of Trump have revealed the true unhinged nature of the US Democrats and their MSM apparatchiks.

          10

      • #
        Another Ian

        That alternative candidate is a master at taking the mickey – which has replicated proof of being above the YSM

        11

    • #
      nb

      ‘None of it is true’
      Indeed. Much is theatre, the rest plain misinformation. It is surprising how many people lap it up. From where does this sense of authority arise? Why do people trust those who lie time and again?
      Perhaps Jo should become the ‘Climate Institute’, adopt the garb of authority.

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      • #
        Bill In Oz

        Why do people pay to consult astrologers ?
        Same reason.
        The stupid desire for certainty in an unpredictable world.
        An existential dilemma.

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        nb

        By the way, universities are very good at this kind of image creation. If you visit most ‘institutes’ they are just a tiny room with a computer, if that. Really all an institute is is an allocated budget, often with a part time research assistant. Anyone can be an institute!

        10

      • #
        TdeF

        I believe the dominant media and social media are so confident of victory that they believe their own rubbish stories, like the polls. You can lie to the children at school and university but promising them destruction only works for a few who are sold a romantic idea of revolution. Against what?

        It is massive self reinforcement by the media simply because there is almost no conservative media. They are believing each other. Hilary is plotting to take over the nomination in November and once again ride to a popular victory as Queen of the elites against the masses. And the Blacks don’t matter. The Democrats were formed to perpetuate slavery and so far they have done a great job. Now like AntiFA and Climate extinction warriors, they are flipping reality.

        The communist takeover of the media is so complete it paints a completely false picture. And I hope that once again there will be a great wailing and gnashing of teeth when Hilary’s despised deplorables come out in their tens of millions to support Donald Trump and a Republican cause of real justice, racial equality and cheap energy and a strong America. And the long march of the socialists through America will have to wait another four years. In which time the climate will not have changed. Again.

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        • #
          WXcycles

          I believe the dominant media and social media are so confident of victory that they believe their own rubbish stories, like the polls.

          As soon as it doesn’t sell enough ads the media and politics will switch to another mythic hobgoblin, like this one didn’t ‘exist’. It’s not really planned, nor based around ideological dysinfo (which they use merely to sell ads, any lie will do). This is just naked greed, IMO, combined with a total lack of scruples.

          ‘Free speech’ and ‘open media’ was not meant to be one big constant media and political lie, to sell ads, at any cost to the rest of society. It’s all a scam, they buy the politicians off to keep the ad money flowing, and the scams running for as long as possible. That approach has been working well for 34 years already. All thy had to do was lobby the UN to set up some ‘free’ jobs for socialist losers, presto the IPCC emerges, then you’re off to the races, selling ads hand over fist, and destroying all of the farce of journalism in the process.

          But even that doesn’t matter, because the money is still pouring in.

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            TdeF

            My hope, which seems to be coming true, is that the left of US politics are so convinced of victory that they are not holding back. Really, what American wants to spend $2Trillion on ‘Climate Justice’? How many Americans think they are safe without the police? The police do all the tough jobs and everyone knows it.

            So the Democrats will blow up their own campaign as did Bill Shorten’s labor. They are even promising to remove Trump’s tax cuts! That might have businesses changing sides, no matter what their public position. And the usual stuff. No university fees, free health for everyone, especially aliens, illegal migrants and the doors thrown open. In the middle of mass deaths from Corona virus.

            Keep going Joe. Don’t mention the corruption in the Democrats, the failed impeachments, the denial there was a problem with China and Joe quoting Mao.

            The polls are doing a power of good. And the more certain the Democrats are of victory with their geriatric puppet, the better Trump looks.

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            • #
              Serp

              After Trump carries all before him again and enjoys a majority in both houses his opposition is unlikely simply to slink away and address its policy failures with an eye to a mid-term revival; nore likely we’ll be subjected to four more years of their advocating unrestrained totalitarian idiocy.

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              • #
                TdeF

                And now the National Police Association has formally backed Trump. They were neutral in the 2016 election but only Trump has backed them against the mob. And they appreciate it. Biden refused an invitation.

                If nothing else, that means 250,000 policemen and women and their families and friends, perhapa a million people who will definitely be voting for Trump.

                And all those black inner city people who do not want to be shot dead on their door step or walking in the street on a summer day or in the park.

                New York is a free killing zone now with murder up over 350% and worse to come. Bring back Guiliani. It was black businesses which were being torched by the white BLM mob. They will vote Trump. He is their only hope.

                72

              • #
                TdeF

                The Democrat black vote is down from 95% Democrat to 77% and dropping like a stone. That’s because black voters think black lives matter. The Democrats do not and Biden and Obama did nothing at all. What was the point of a Black president if not to look after blacks. But he wanted to wage war in his homeland, Africa. Even if he managed an Hawaiian birth certificate.

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            • #
              truth

              This is my hope too…surely Americans won’t vote for the party that targets and nobbles ICE police and leaves the MS-13 gangs to slaughter young Americans …especially as …in spite of Democrat obstruction…..the Trump Administration has arrested more than 1,600 MS-13 gang members over the last three years including recently its national leadership.

              40

    • #
      WXcycles

      And Presidential hopeful Joe Biden is also promising $2 Trillion for Climate Justice. Bernie Sanders says it is not enough.

      No “Justice” for taxpayers then?

      No ‘precautionary principles’ left for them?

      72

    • #
      WXcycles

      US. Bubonic plague

      BTW Tdef, US locals report strains of bubonic plague are endemic, it pops up very regularly in the native wildlife and is not a significant concern, easily treated too.

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      • #
        TdeF

        Yes, like H1N1 it never really leaves. But it is strange to get two media reports of Bubonic plague in a week. Or is that to draw our attention away from Wuhan Flu?

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  • #
    Maptram

    They can’t predict wind either. If they could predict wind, or lack of wind, they wouldn’t keep pushing wind turbines as part of the solution to stop climate change.

    80

    • #
      TdeF

      The wind and ocean currents are driven by two forces, the rotation of the planet and local heating by the sun. They are not driven by ‘Climate’. This whole Climate approach is treating the symptoms, the effects, not the cause.

      It based on the conjecture, as yet unproven, that the tiniest gas in the air controls the world’s climate and a 50% increase in this gas is a disaster.

      What controls climates are heat and gravity and the tiny amount of air above us, is nothing compared to the vast mass of that hot heavy liquid which covers 3/4 of the planet to an average depth of 3.4km. It contains, absorbs and releases 1400x as much energy as the air above as the world’s biggest heat bank. Everything we experience as Climate is water dependent and all the water comes from the oceans. So they study the upper atmosphere?

      So you would think that the solar cycles and the reaction of the giant ocean heat bank would be the key to understanding the weather, but we are told it is a single tiny gas? Sure it has gone up from 0.025% to 0.04% in a hundred years so we should be worried and cripple Western Democracies to stop growing? Because Western Democracies are the problem.

      There is no science in man generated CO2 driven Global Warming. And how you get Climate Change from CO2 without getting Global Warming is the greatest mystery of the age.

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  • #
    WXcycles

    And not just the modelers who are wrong either. For the past two mornings in Townsville the BOM sensors at the Townsville airport claimed we had 7 degrees C early morning, and an apparent ‘feels like’ temp of 4.3C. I live within 1.5 km of that sensor, and I know it wasn’t that cold for the past two mornings. When it gets that cold metal and ceramic are cold to the tough, the walls and door knobs get cold, the bed sheets get cold, and you need to rug up, or you shiver. But that’s not happening. I estimate it got down to about 11 to 12C the past two mornings. Cool, but not cold.

    So I check the sensors around the place to see if the Townsville airport BOM temp sensor is out of whack with reality. Strangely a couple of the rural sensors confirmed the readings made at the airport, but these were on top of Harvey’s Range at about 1,500 to 2,000 ft altitude, not on the UHI affected sea-level humid coast line, where the airport is. So I checked the Army’s MT Stuart temp sensor, on the southern edge of Townsville (about 10 km from me) and it recorded exactly what I expected (and felt).

    Last nights data from the BOM temp sensor that’s sited the closest to the Townsville airport.

    Latest Weather Observations for Mount Stuart (Defence) IDQ60801
    Issued at 8:22 am EST Thursday 16 July 2020
    Date/Time EST | Temp °C | App Temp °C
    16/06:00am … 13.4 … 12.1
    16/05:30am … 14.2 … 11.8
    16/05:00am … 14.5 … 11.7
    16/04:30am … 14.4 … 12
    16/04:00am … 14.4 … 12
    16/03:30am … 13.5 … 11.5
    16/03:00am … 13.7 … 11.8
    16/02:30am … 14.1 … 12
    16/02:00am … 14.9 … 14.6
    16/01:30am … 14.7 … 14.7
    16/01:00am … 14 … 13.5
    16/12:30am … 13.9 … 12.5
    16/12:00am … 14.2 … 13.5

    http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ60801/IDQ60801.94272.shtml

    This looks like what I felt over the past two nights.

    So it seems the BOM sensor at the Townsville airport is not only increasingly UHI affected with time, as Ken Stewart showed via geographical placement analysis, and increasingly questionable with time, it’s also apparently faulty or poorly calibrated right now, and is reading several degrees C, too low!

    But the airport sensor recorded a min at 4:00am of 7.5C, and an apparent temp of 6.0C, at 5:00 AM. That didn’t happen.

    4.5C warmer temp than the airport, at 4:30 AM,
    An apparent ‘feels like’ temp that’s 5.8C warmer than the airport, at 5:00AM.

    Here’s the Airport sensor’s log:

    Date/Time EST | Temp °C | App Temp °C
    16/05:30am … 7.7 … 6.3
    16/05:00am … 7.9 … 6
    16/04:30am … 7.7 … 7.1
    16/04:00am … 7.5 … 6.8

    http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ60801/IDQ60801.94294.shtml

    But Sky News reported a min of 6.5C last night in Townsville (which is 1C lower again than BOMs ‘data’ log, so where did Sky pull that number from??) This is what tipped me off to how out of whack the temp log is.

    The question is how will BOM’s retrospective history-warming data-homogenizers cope in 100 years from now, when it’s time to tell another bunch of climate-changeable fibs for money, to justify their latest climate “history” narrative? Do they homogenize with Townsville’s Airport BOM sensor or with Townsville’s Mt Stewart BOM sensor? Are we headed for a new global glaciation or a planetary thermal apocalypse?

    Conveniently BOM can now choose either outcome, and they actually will have the ‘data’ to ‘prove’ either one they chose!

    The march of progress is relentless, this is the best temp record taxpayers can buy, it informs a debate (about CLIMATE!) and adjusts public policies and national history. We are made smarter in the process, and save many billions, based on world’s-best practices.

    So how widespread are these errors within the modern digital BOM sensor record?
    And why is there is no one at the Townsville airport with sufficient life experience and time in the area to know what’s normal, and what it feels like, scratching their head this morning and realizing, “Gee willikers! That can’t be right! It simply didn’t get that cold last night.”

    Anecdotally, I’m quite sure it didn’t, I slept with my bedroom fan on full speed and used 1 sheet and 1 blanket over me so I know it did not get down to 7 degrees C in Townsville this morning. Automated sensors don’t know the difference. So I’m wondering who it is that edits the data? And where are they located exactly? And do they have any local experience? And did it actually feel like 4.3C at 5:30 AM at Townsville airport 5 hours ago?

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    • #
      WXcycles

      And did it actually feel like 4.3C at 5:30 AM at Townsville airport 5 hours ago?

      Typo, this should have been 6.3C at 5:30AM. (still in moderation)

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    • #
      Maptram

      Then there is the temperature recorded in the Climate Data Online database, which is the record when the observations have disappeared after 72 hours. For Townsville the minimum temperature shown for today was 6.5C, while the observed minimum was 7.5C at at 4:00am. No time is provided for the daily maximums and minimums in the Climate Data Online records.

      Daily maximums and minimums seem to be based on the temperature not apparent temperature. The Climate Data online max for Townsville Airport yesterday was 22.8C while the Observed Max was 22.3C at 1:30pm and the apparent temp was 17.4C. From looking at data for Deniliquin NSW, maximum temperatures in the Climate Data Online database, daily maximums are always between 0.1C and 2.0C higher that observed maximums. Recorded daily minimums are usually between 0C and 0.5C lower than observed minimums.

      20

  • #
    Annie

    Do you think that Sir Humphrey Appleby contributed to that paper?

    50

  • #
    WXcycles

    Maher et al. (2020) acknowledge that internal variability in global surface temperature variations is “a difficult concept to communicate” because we have very few observations of its impact and so we must rely on assumptions about how the climate system might work.

    Fortunately, 97% agree, no matter the lack of evidence.

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    • #
      TdeF

      Hard evidence is irrelevant to a belief. Take the world’s religions.

      What is puzzling is that only 97% of people agree. That 3% must be hunted down and eliminated.

      Personally I have never known 97% of people to agree about anything.

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      • #
        TdeF

        It’s reminiscent of elections in communist (say socialist) governments. If fewer than 98% support the regime there is an investigation. The loss of 2% is considered an administrative error.

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        • #
          WXcycles

          And who was that cohort anyway? Certainly not 100% of the climate-informed. They seem to have left out all of the Geos, the people who understand global climate-changes the best out of all the ‘sciences’.

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          • #
            TdeF

            The Australian original survey by John Cook of JCU was sent out to 10,000 people, mainly meteorologists. not Geos. He culled the responses to 100 people by selecting criteria until he could claim 97% of ‘Climate Scientists’ agreed with his proposition of man made Climate Change. To do this he eliminated 99% of the qualified people he thought would have an informed opinion. Then ‘Climate Scientists’ has been changed to ‘scientists’ and meteorologists have been declared ignorant of climate. It’s an odd world where this can happen.

            As I have written, it’s a little like a communist election result.

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            • #
              WXcycles

              Ah, thanks, I didn’t realize this was originally yet another JCU con-job in origins. I should have known.

              BTW, you could swipe a cricket ball from the back of the JCU Geology Dept (Geo/Phys building) which is now called ‘Earth Sciences’ and land it on top of the biology building where the 97% consensus myth appears to have originated. But they still didn’t confer with the local geos across the way, like, Prof Bob Carter, former head of Dept at JCU?

              It could have saved a lot of electrons, bandwidth, careers, law suits, HDD space, plus produced a far better understanding of climate, and much less money wasted on climate-change modeling.

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              • #
                TdeF

                And Prof Ian Plimer. Geologists have to not only understand today’s climates, they have to be the masters of yesterday’s climates if they want to find oil.
                They are real forensic climatologists where the newly minted breed of ‘Climate Scientists’ cannot predict a thing from one year to the next.

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              • #
                truth

                WX…

                The 97% myth…incongruously….originated from the much-questioned research by John Cook when he was at UQ in which he asked scientists from around the world via questionnaire to state their positions on AGW.

                In Cook’s own words…

                ..[ ‘our team examined the abstracts of nearly 12,000 peer-reviewed climate science studies published between 1991 and 2011, and categorized each one based on its position on the causes of global warming. In a second phase of our analysis we e-mailed the authors of each study and asked them to categorize their own papers using the same criteria, receiving 1,200 responses. Our team’s review of the abstracts yielded a 97.1 percent consensus that humans are primarily responsible for recent global warming; the author self-ratings yielded a 97.2 percent consensus.’ ]

                But what Cook doesn’t say …but is reported to have later admitted…is that once the respondents and their abstracts were analysed according to Cook’s own research criteria…there were only a small number left that had any position on AGW and fitted the criteria….and of that very small number 97.1% supported AGW.

                Ie the 97% figure was true…but it was 97% of a very small number…..and therefore meaningless…yet it’s insanely become some sort of magic number for everything to do with CAGW around the world.

                At about the same time Cook was writing to UWA and misrepresenting himself with impunity as Lubos Motl…the famous theoretical physicist.

                30

            • #
              Another Ian

              TdeF

              IIRC Cook was University of Qld, not JCU.

              Now seems George Mason Uni in USA

              20

      • #
        Another Ian

        Like the “old light” Presbyterian’s

        “The Covenant and No Quarter”?

        Nice friendly types who didn’t appreciate it when Burns wrote “Holy Willie’s Prayer”

        11

  • #
    Meglort

    Putting aside the quasi-religious fervour on CAGW, it has always been said in relation to coding that garbage in equals garbage out. This was perfectly illustrated by Centrelink recently when amateur hour prevailed in the so called “robodebt” guilty unless self-proven to be innocent scandal. It was known long before it hit production that the thinking employed by the cheaply imported labour hire and the outsourced systems integrators was faulty and not based on legislation and hence would fail if challenged, which it was.

    For mission critical systems design, objective quality control (validation and verification) of the logic both in design and implementation is critical and the use cases, boundary conditions, assumptions, assertions and input/output qualifications are known and managed. There is no evidence that this has been done, and at the very least publishing the logic, algorithm and input data used should be openly done and critiqued widely for something so mission critical to public decision making.

    The fact that it has not and almost certainly will not be says all that one needs to know in relation to the likely objective assessment of the model efficacy should it be. That the world at large has accepted the totalitarian pronouncements of the IPCC and blindly trusted their work to tear apart our civilisation is enlightening.

    However I wonder if the IPCC created autonomous systems for flying planes would people be so trusting in them. But the IPCC has killed and harmed more people than Boeing through their dodgy models, I am absolutely certain.

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    • #
      Another Ian

      Don’t forget the Qld Health payroll

      http://www.couriermail.com.au/extras/qweekend/fff/features/pdfs/338.pdf

      should download a pdf

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    • #
      truth

      The organisation….British Institute of Physics… responsible for this particular research….in a report in 2009…. commissioned by the British House of Commons… made the same criticisms as you have ….of the lack of scientific method and integrity revealed in the Climategate emails…and the role of East Anglia and the HADCRU scientists as well as climate scientists worldwide…but, as I said in my other post, IOP were soon forced by the government to write a new more ‘acceptable’ report with much of their criticism of climate science deleted…except that they managed to include this statement at the end of their second report….

      [ ‘A great responsibility rests on the shoulders of climate science: to provide the planet's decision makers with the knowledge they need to secure our future. The challenge that this poses is extensive and some of these decisions risk our standard of living. When the prices to pay are so large, the knowledge on which these kinds of decisions are taken had better be right. The science must be irreproachable.’ ]

      Of course things have only gone from bad to worse.

      This was the first…canned…report.

      http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200910/cmselect/cmsctech/memo/climatedata/uc3902.htm

      30

      • #
        Meglort

        Thanks for the link, and absolutely agree.

        The systematic torching of professional, academic and political integrity that produced the climategate fiasco now brings us the pandemic fiasco which follows on. The UN and their corruption right up and in it to their eyeballs and their anti-human agenda. It would all make a triller sci-fi series if it wasn’t our misfortunate reality.

        And now, somehow kids can get through junior high school in Australia without being taught the periodic chart, the carbon cycle or basic thermodynamics.

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        • #
          Kalm Keith

          The most important things these days are;
          Being competent at turning on the T.V.
          Showing advanced competence at operating a mobile phone.
          Demonstrating advanced competence in computer searches using Goooogle.

          30

  • #
    Ruairi

    When a warming trend comes to a halt,
    Be prepared with a large pinch of salt,
    To hear modelers tell,
    How predictions went well,
    Until cooling, which wasn’t their fault.

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  • #
    Terry

    So, in short:
    “Climate Science” is not Science (because they do not follow the Scientific Method); and
    “Climate Scientists” are not Scientists (because they do not follow the Scientific Method).

    Got it. So long as we are all clear about this.

    We know what the shills mean when they say they follow the “science” and listen to the “scientists”.

    The very reason everyone else should not.

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    • #
      truth

      So the greatest moral issue of our time …the existential threat for which our children’s futures must be placed in mortal jeopardy…..has come down to this…..even though we’re continually told statements such as the following sober reassurance for the true believers that their hoax still lives…actually describe ‘weather’…not ‘climate’ ?

      [ ‘Sippel et al (2020) have recently demonstrated that climate change is still detectable in the pattern of global temperature anomalies at any given day.’]

      20

  • #
    Rupert Ashford

    Great, so the rearguard action to CYA (collectively) if/when the GSM really kicks in is underway. This bunch might be lousy scientists, but they’re very good at PR.

    40

  • #
    Geoff Sherrington

    It is not just the poor interpretation of scientific results that should cause you concern. The overall academic mind set is becoming problematic if Jordan Peterson is correct here. What a strange state of affairs !!! Geoff S from Judith Curry’s blog
    https://nationalpost.com/opinion/jordan-peterson-the-activists-are-now-stalking-the-hard-scientists/wcm/e6e84649-4a24-4ab7-8462-47580d115e25/

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  • #
    Dennis

    Computer modelling – garbage in, garbage out.

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    • #
      Another Ian

      Or the variation

      “Garbage In – Gospel Out”

      20

      • #
        Another Ian

        Reminds me – way back in BC when “The New Scientist” wasn’t “The Nude Socialist” they used to run “Ariadne’s Column”

        One item (probably in the 1960′s) speculated on the likely success of a computerised religion. I don’t have a copy but things I remember to give you the rough drift were:-

        It would have mores about opposite to those of the general population

        It would regularly issue edicts of the fire and brimstone variety

        It would make random cash allocations on the UK premium bond principle

        And in the wondering was how many people would take it up, even though it was known that the computer equipment was supplied by XYZ Computers and the software written by Joe Blow

        20

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        That I will pinch Ian
        Thanks
        :-)

        12

        • #
          Another Ian

          Bill

          Go for it – I’m just quoting IIRC.

          I’m sorry I can’t give you a link to it.

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  • #

    I am reminded of a story I was told many years ago about research on accuracy of stock picking models in finance that was carried out in Sweden. Apparently just for laughs the researcher also got a chimpanzee from the zoo to pick the stock companies. And the Swedish chimpanzee did better than most of the models.

    So it is with the deluded climate models. As readers here would know, climate is an extremely chaotic system with a massive no of variables. Some of which, like cosmic rays, we know little about. And along come the modellers who try to tell us that their model will predict things in 20-100 years…

    I think we should get that Swedish chimpanzee, if he/she is still around and get it to pick what the climate will look like in the future. Based on past experience it may be better than most climate models….

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  • #
    Dennis

    Did you hear the story about a girl who kissed a prince and turned him into a green frog?

    20

  • #
    Ronald Bruce

    They have no idea what they are dealing with, anything is possible, but they still want us to spend trillions of dollars and cripple the western world economy for something that probably won’t happen or we could even get an ice age and carbon dioxide is not going to have any significant effect at all. I wonder what their real motivation is.

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    • #
      Serp

      I doubt there’s a motive as such, the exercise of power is an end in itself.

      10

    • #
      el gordo

      ‘ … we could even get an ice age and carbon dioxide is not going to have any significant effect at all.’

      In fact the extra CO2 will save our bacon because there is a natural lowering of CO2 in the atmosphere during glacial times. This is one experiment the gods have seriously considered, otherwise it would be curtains for humanity.

      30

  • #
    Drapetomania

    Vishnu Bhagavadgita
    July 16, 2020 at 3:30 am · Reply

    That has to be a parody account made by someone here to make $CAGW$ followers mad..?
    Or is it legit.. :)

    20

  • #
    TdeF

    And what is missing from the current story are a few crucial words. Rapid. Runaway. Tipping point. Boiling. Extinction. Emergency. Dire. Polar Bears.
    And over 30 years it could go one way or the other but the cause is the same? Carbon dioxide.
    Warming is happening. Definitely. Absolutely. But the temperature might go down?

    It beggars belief.

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    truth

    This seems to be an OOPS! document-designed to provide cover and an alibi for the inconvenient cooling trends the CAGW catastrophists see, and find they will not be able to ignore over the next 30 years.

    The British IOP whose research this is…is the same one that wrote a report that strongly condemned the scientific misdeeds revealed in the Climategate emails…only to cave and rewrite an opposite opinion at the demand of the British House of Commons that had commissioned the first report….but maybe there’s been a purge since.

    This is the original report that was scuttled….
    https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200910/cmselect/cmsctech/memo/climatedata/uc3902.htm

    No coincidence of course that those 30 years covering their short and their mid-term time scale are the ones during which the CAGW hoaxers intend to destroy the Western democracies …..especially Australia…force them to relinquish their sovereignty and submit to being herded into a future of coercion under a Global Socialist regime that will oversee and orchestrate Western economies…force policy compliance with the Socialist diktat….and orchestrate the wealth redistribution and technology transfer from the democracies to the Communist/Socialist dictatorships as demanded by the despots driving all this at the UN…WHO…WTO etc…and ultimately demanded by the Chinese Communist dictatorship and the CCP.

    The Left have honed their unmatched lying skills all the way through this …from their dodgy consensus and ‘science closed’ tactic declared before much research was even done…before clouds were researched…before global temperature and therefore global temperature trends were known…. with temperature of 70% of the earth …ie oceans …not able to be reliably measured…before sensitivity was known…and it’s still not known definitively….and with the absence of the ‘hot spot’…etc….through all that… the lying has escalated….to denial of the pause that this document now admits…and denial of observed lack of warming overall.

    Now they find lying won’t cut it because reality will be there for all to see.

    So now they show how really stupid they think the populations of the democracies have finally become … and maybe they’re right since they’ve worked hard for decades through several generations to make it so….…and they try to flog us a cover story to get them through to ….surprise ..surprise…2050…..to keep us hosed down long enough to buy time ….conveniently those 30 years…the frogs boiling slowly….so that by 2050 their true plan will be a fait accompli….ie effective global Socialism under the jackboot of the nefarious international bodies being inexorably collected and captured as we speak by China…ie Western economies forced into compliance with Socialist ENDS that we here have known all along was to be the outcome of this hoax…..even their own officials have spelt that out.

    We’ll probably see more of these attempts by the hoaxers to vaccinate themselves against retribution.

    So by the time the cooling of the earth becomes incontrovertible…we’ll all be stuffed anyway….not by global warming but by our own government’s rancid cowardice…total lack of intellectual substance…..malevolent intent ….or treason….or all three….that’s the government that gutted Australia in 2015 anyway… in order get the power to betray Australia for Global Socialism.

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    • #
      Dennis

      The leader of that 2015 replacement of government leader also uses The Australian Republican Movement for Global Socialism purposes, if only we stupid Australians had taken his referendum bait and ARM’s deceptive claims about the Monarch ruling Australia.

      Objective: Get to change the Constitution, rewrite the many parts that protect sovereignty of nation.

      40

  • #
    Robber

    Talking of natural versus man made variability:
    Across the AEMO grid, wind has been delivering just 800 MW today from a nameplate capacity of 7,700 MW.
    Perhaps we now have too many windmills slowing down the wind?
    In the windy State of SA, just 40 MW from nameplate of 2,100 MW.
    Most of the wind today is in NSW and Qld, delivering 650 MW.

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      TdeF

      Uneconomic Unreliable Replaceables. As always. The Dutch, Spanish, Greeks, French, British dumped windmills the moment steam power arrived.
      Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it. Which is why historians no longer teach history.

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      Dennis

      On Sky News last night, new wind farm planned for Tasmania.

      Proposal covers 67 wind turbines taller than the Hobart Casino building from north of Hobart to Launceston along a ridgeline of hills, a wildlife breeding area notably for Eagles.

      It was pointed out that Tasmania does not need any extra energy supply and is an exporter via the interconnector to Victoria and the second to be installed soon. However the not well publicised renewables energy plan of the Turnbull Government was for Tasmania to be a “battery” to support the mainland’s world’s largest interconnected electricity grid.

      Some will recall that a year ago the Greens led by their former Leader Bob Brown opposed a similar wind farm on hills in the south of Tasmania.

      The presenter pointed out that wind farm businesses receive taxpayer funded subsidy of $500,000 every year for each of the wind turbines they operate.

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        Serp

        Thanks for the miserable tidings, mind you I’d rather be informed than not; the inexorable march of private equity groups harvesting taxpayer funded subsidies continues –aint life grand!

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          Serp

          Until the RET goes we’ll continue to be subjected to this bludgeoning by big money erecting its preposterous wind turbines wherever backhanders are taken.

          Repeal the legislation and these parasites will move to jurisdictions where the decarbonization scam is currently in operation or can be conjured up by buying legislators and then we can get on with building the latest generation coal fired plants and eliminate what must by now number a dozen energy quangos which will be pointless once the false goal of zero emissions has been eliminated.

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        TdeF

        Correct. The area was however the North West in the Tarkine, Bob’s favorite place and just across Bass Strait from Victoria for the cable. It was just the typical Green Hypocrisy, NIMBY. And it must be profitable because the company offered to lay their own cable to Victoria. Talk about printing money. No one needs wind power, so it is heavily subsidized with cash, endless cash under the RET. They are money pumping stations, which is why we in Victoria now have the world’s most expensive electricity from the world’s cheapest power stations. Our own free brown coal.

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          Bill In Oz

          No TdeF.
          The most expensive is here in SA
          From all our own SA solar panels and windy ‘power’ plants.
          :-(

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    Ross

    I have been following the Global Warming/ Climate change subject since the early 1980′s. First heard about the “Greenhouse effect” as an undergraduate science student in 1983. With limited knowledge back then I thought , ” thats garbage, there’s no physical (glass) roof at the top our troposphere. Its just open to space”. In the 90′s during my mid work career, computer/climate modelling took over the subject of climate change. I can remember debates back then when there were estimates of world temperatures increases of 6 ºC using some of the more crazy scenarios. It was projected back then that this would happen in about 20 years – which is now. Never happened. Unfortunately, even though real time observations never matched these model projections , I think government policies worldwide are still geared around these unrealistic predictions. There is a parallel here between these early Climate change model predictions and COVID19. I think there is still a lot of politicians ( and bureaucrats) worldwide who think the numbers originally modelled by the likes of Neil Ferguson , Imperial College and the IMHO (US) are still possible, even though they have been quickly disproved.

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    Another Ian

    Around the edges of this thread IMO

    “Why we stopped trusting ‘experts’”

    https://unherd.com/2020/07/why-we-stopped-trusting-experts/?tl_inbound=1&tl_groups%5B0%5D=18743&tl_period_type=3

    Via Tip of the Spear

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    TdeF

    So it’s not happening. Or it’s a pause. Or it’s cooling.
    But the polar ice caps are melting anyway? And the Polar bears are dying from Climate Change?

    It’s a bit unreasonable to say the polar ice caps are melting because of a warming of +1C in a hundred years? Or that any life form on the planet has
    seen their habitat destroyed. Surely seasonal, annual, even daily temperature variation is vastly great than this?

    So where is the Climate Emergency if it’s not happening? Why are women dressing in red with white face paint? And why is a high school dropout lecturing the UN and the US Congress on something which may or may not be real and is pretty trivial so far in 120 years?

    Is it all falling apart? After all that money and 350,000 windmills?

    Yes.

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    Mal

    The climate occurs in 25 – 30 year cycles (Cycles by Dewey)
    This was discovered over 50 years ago
    Climate cycles are natural

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    Slithers

    I think it is time for some English Language lessons, and I failed English language three times!
    The ‘Natural Variation of Climate’ is a construct with-out definition if those ‘Natural’ Variable’ forces are not explained and evaluation is therefore not possible.
    In Electronics a ‘Tuned Circuit’ has a ‘Natural Frequency’ that can be well predicted by formulae.
    In Engineering, Buildings and Bridges have considerable mathematical formulae to ensure they do not have ‘Natural Frequencies’ that could cause them to self destruct.
    These formulae rely upon Values that need to be established.
    Therefore to say the Climate has ‘Natural Variability’ while at the same time saying that they do not have enough data to quantify this natural Variability makes a nonsense of their statement!
    It fails by its own semantics. What Climate Alarmists have been saying for many years that rising CO2 is the cause is therefore ascribing a ‘Progression’ to the CO2/climate relationship, that they now wish to say is a variable with-out establishing any values.
    There are very few events that show ‘progression’, an explosive (Dynamite) being set off has a decided progression, while there are many that show ‘Variability’. The tides being the most obvious, different height, different time of day, never being the same, yet showing a natural variability that can be calculated, often with considerable accuracy.
    To be a ‘Climate Scientist’ one has to go to university and study ‘Obfuscation’ and get at least a high distinction in the everybody gets a prize exams.
    Should I add /sarc off?

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    They (the climate liars, pretending to be experts) want you to forget that they touted global warming after only TEN to FIFTEEN years of supposed warming (from about 1975 or 1979, to 1988, when weaponized political scientist James Hansen hawked global warming to Congress, and the UN ICPP was born, specifically to force the global warming narrative on the world). See, for example, my September 2013 comment on the stevengoddard site:

    goddard

    [I hope that stevengoddard link still works; Tony Heller is “Steven Goddard”, and that link has his graphs, referred to in my commment…which is why I haven’t simply reposted that comment here, his graphs should also be looked at.)

    And even THAT “global warming” was a fraud:

    US Temperatures Have Been Falsely Adjusted According to the Level of Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere

    The lies are blatant, if people would only bother to learn and remember the past.

    I have written for years, and the truth will never change: There is no valid global climate science, and no competent climate scientists (who all believe in global warming due to a radiative CO2 “greenhouse effect”).

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    William

    I continue to be astounded that otherwise intelligent and successful friends remain hoodwinked by this sham. No matter how wrong the models are wrong, they refuse to question them. Of course, most of them rely solely on Nine/Fairfax and the ABC for their news.

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    OriginalSteve

    Ok AD. Nuke it then please.

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