JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


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Tuesday Open Thread

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Tuesday Open Thread, 10.0 out of 10 based on 8 ratings

104 comments to Tuesday Open Thread

  • #
    RicDre

    Australian Military Recruiting Soars as Coronavirus Hits Job Market

    Australians are turning away from a sagging jobs market and looking to the country’s military forces for a stable career alternative as the global coronavirus epidemic shows no sign of easing.

    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/06/30/australian-military-recruiting-soars-as-coronavirus-hits-job-market/

    30

    • #
      el gordo

      Its on again.

      ‘In the most significant shift in the nation’s military posture in decades, Scott Morrison will today announce a $270bn 10-year defence plan including “lethal” naval and air warfare capability as well as the first land-based long-range missile defence systems.’ Oz

      20

      • #
        glen Michel

        If it’s OK with Defence procurement, can we get someone sensible.

        50

        • #
          el gordo

          The first sub might be ready in a decade, but its already out of date so they will beef up personnel to defend our island.

          ‘Over the next decade the Australian Defence Force is expected to grow by 800 people, comprising 650 personnel for Navy, 100 for the Air Force, and 50 for Army.’ ABC

          00

          • #
            Dennis

            I am now not so critical of the Barracuda Submarine contract after doing some research, however I remain critical of the cost and delivery timing, and have reservations about the longer term future for manned submarines.,

            Apparently the RAN pushed for Barracuda but with conventional diesel-electric power to drive water pump or jet propulsion and with provision for maybe the second half of the fleet being nuclear powered, subject to change in the present ban on nuclear imposed by a Parliament majority vote.

            The Swedish design RAN Collins Class Submarines were a customised design for Australia and built in South Australia. They were criticised over and over again and worse when faults in systems were being sorted out. The Weekend Australian reported a few weeks ago in a Defence article that Collins Class have proven to be a world class leading conventional submarine with formidable capabilities.

            It reminds me of the controversy about the RAAF purchase of F-111 swing wing fighter-bombers that also proved to be world leaders in performance and capabilities until stealth and other technology made them vulnerable and they were retired. And now the critics pick on the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter which is really not a traditional air to air fighter jet, F-35 is a new generation air superiority platform that has many functions including air and ground surveillance capabilities, and air to air technology that does not use old fighter tactics.

            40

            • #
              el gordo

              Word is they have ironed out some of the early bugs with the F-35 and now its fit for purpose.

              20

              • #
                Dennis

                Israel Air Force F-35 missions have resulted in high praise for their performance.

                What few understand is that F-35 fighting platform has many capabilities, not just guns, missiles and bombs.

                30

              • #
                PeterW

                Far too few many are still imagining air warfare in terms of the Battle of Britain. Getting within gun range of a live enemy is proof that you have mucked up. The idea is to kill your enemy before he knows you are there.

                50

              • #
                el gordo

                ‘ … kill your enemy before he knows you are there.’

                Like a well orchestrated pandemic, hit and run.

                20

              • #
                Dennis

                At the same time jamming enemy electronics, transmitting intelligence information to sea and ground forces and a lot more classified operational capabilities.

                And soon for the RAAF “Loyal Wingman” drones flying alongside F-35 to increase firepower, prototype designed and manufactured by Boeing in Australia and now being trialled.

                10

              • #
                el gordo

                They would already have perfected electro magnetic weapons.

                https://thediplomat.com/2020/04/countering-chinas-laser-offensive/

                00

              • #

                The idea is to kill your enemy before he knows you are there.

                I was in on the ground floor of the Pave Tack Upgrade to Australia’s fleet of F-111′s, and I worked for almost 2 years on it from the time they started installing the Modification on the Australian aircraft. (Other than the USAF, Australia was the only Air Force to have the F-111)

                The only way I could even begin to explain it was to refer back to the daily briefings from the First Gulf War, when they showed single buildings and other singular targets exploding, and only those targets. I lost count of the number of people who were certain that it was totally fake, and that they were using computer graphics to show those targets being destroyed.

                How can you tell someone that ONE aeroplane flies somewhere in the general vicinity of where the target might be, drops its one bomb, and then just flies off back to safety, totally untouched. The bomb either (a) flies to the designated input of the ‘SatNav’ location, (b) the Navigator ‘lases’ the target, computer assisted with the input of that satnav location, and the bomb flies down that laser beam to the target, (c) an outside source ‘lases’ the target directly, or (d) if the Navigator thinks he’s good enough, he can ‘fly’ the bomb to the target. Inside the head of the bomb is a camera, and all releases were taped, so they could watch the bomb hit the target. Some operators could aim for the football field, and fly the bomb through the goalposts, or as happened in that First Gulf War, down the Airconditioning duct outlet on the roof of the building.

                PaveTack is now a thing of the past having served its purpose, but PGM (precision guided munitions) are now a quantum level better than what they were in those early days of PaveTack.

                When people put down the F-22 and the F-35, all I can do is smile. When it comes to state of the art combat aircraft, ….. NO ONE does it like the Americans.

                The F-111 was constructed in the GDFW factory which was One mile long. They started it at one end, and rolled out a complete aircraft at the 1760 Mark (yards in a mile) When the Americans saw what we here in Australia were doing with our F-11′s, they actually knocked a hole in the side of the factory wall half way down, and rolled in older versions and Upgraded them. They extended the life of the F-111 more than for any other combat airplane they ever built, it was just that good, and there were so many variants.

                Without fraction of a doubt, that F-111 was the best military acquisitions Australia ever made.

                We may only have some FA-18′s, some Super Hornets, and soon those f-35′s, but that akes us one of the most effective Air Forces in the region. A lot of other Air Forces wish they had what we’ve got.

                Tony.

                90

              • #

                Shame they buried the last F111′s in a hole in Ipswich.
                https://www.qt.com.au/news/famous-fighters-dumped-in-hole/1185891/

                What a waste.

                Beautiful plane.

                30

            • #
              Dennis

              Plus Tony, highly skilled and trained RAAF pilots and crews.

              20

    • #
      PeterW

      Recruitment soars…. Women and politically-correct minorities only, need apply.

      My contacts amongst more-recently retired veterans are emphatic that the Top Brass are not focussed on war-fighting.

      70

  • #
    RicDre

    Australia sees highest new coronavirus caseload since mid-April, successful virus fight overall

    Australia saw its highest new coronavirus caseload on Monday since mid-April, with 85 cases, officials recently announced. The total COVID-19 cases in Australia have been far lower than hard-hit countries such as the U.S. (nearly 2.7 million cases), Brazil (more than 1.3 million cases) and Russia (more than 646,900 cases), according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.

    https://www.foxnews.com/health/australia-highest-new-coronavirus-case-load-since-mid-april-successful-fight-overall

    10

  • #
    RicDre

    The Calamity of Models – Podcast with Willis Eschenbach

    Our resident polymath Willis Eschenbach joins Heartland Senior Fellow Anthony Watts to discuss the parallels of hysteria and failure surrounding climate models and the coronovirus model that effectively put the world on hold.

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/06/30/the-calamity-of-models-podcast-with-willis-eschenbach/

    11

  • #
    Peter Fitzroy

    Perth in Western Australia has announced the installation of it’s 6th community battery, made by Tesla. These are great for the community, working as they do on the ‘self storage’ model, allowing participants to store surplus rooftop production for the literal ‘rainy day’ or to cover their nighttime consumption. Additionally, they help balance grid demand and improve power quality.

    114

    • #
      Rowjay

      That’s very good news Peter – it means that people are recognizing the futility of installing wind/solar renewables without an equivalent capacity as backup. Our Govt should mandate that any new renewables project should have an equivalent capacity as backup before being allowed on the grid – at their cost by the way, not ours.

      140

    • #
      yarpos

      A “community battery” will be doing far more of the latter (useful work in a deliberately fragmented and unstable grid) and very little of the former which is more about PR.

      70

      • #
        robert rosicka

        Yarpos , Fitz’s comment is big on spin but short on detail and that’s where the devil is .
        I had a ticket in last nights $30 million dollar mega draw and I won , this sounds impressive and a game changer but drill down to details and I won $27.30 .

        80

    • #
      Robber

      Drum roll please – the new battery has a capacity of 464 kWh. Yet another subsidy paid for by consumers, but no report of what it cost.

      My recent electricity bill reported that I used 15.3 kWh per day so that battery could provide power to 30 houses for 24 hours or 60 houses overnight.

      90

      • #
        David Wojick

        Population of Perth? How many of these to provide overnight juice for one night?

        70

        • #
          Graeme#4

          Perth has 2.06 million people, and it isn’t connected to the eastern “National” grid and so has to rely on its grid reliability, the South-west SWIS grid. This grid is quite reliable as it uses natural gas peaking units to add additional energy at peak times, and the domestic electricity costs at around US$0.17/kWh. So there aren’t the problems that you regularly hear about that exist in many other states.

          70

          • #
            Graeme#4

            As a further comment, most of Perth’s power outages are caused by storm damage, but this is gradually being mitigated by placing all power lines underground – Perth’s sandy soil is quite suitable for this.

            60

        • #
          Rick C PE

          Well one would power about 5,000 homes — for 5 minutes.

          70

          • #
            AndyG55

            Seem everyone else has done the work of showing just how ludicrous and stupidly expensive the community batteries are.

            50

          • #
            Chad

            Rick C PE
            July 1, 2020 at 9:33 am ·
            Well one would power about 5,000 homes — for 5 minutes

            NO, it could not do that Rick !
            These batteries are rated (limited) to a discharge rate of 110kW max.
            So your 5000 homes would only be able to draw 22.0 Watts each !!
            Possibly enough for 1 LED light ! …but it would last 4 hours !
            Even just 50 homes would only be able to draw 2.2kW each…
            ..possibly enough to keep the fridge, a small heater, and a few lights on…but only for 4 hours !!
            These systems are a forking JOKE

            110

      • #
        Chad

        Robber
        July 1, 2020 at 7:59 am ·

        My recent electricity bill reported that I used 15.3 kWh per day so that battery could provide power to 30 houses for 24 hours or 60 houses overnight.

        If by “overnight” ,..you mean outside RT solar operating times ( 8am to 5 pm),.. those 60 homes are going to be dissapointed.
        The Battery would have to supply for both the evening and morning peak periods, as well as the nighttime requirements (A/C, heating, lighting , freezers, etc)..
        further , 60 houses would be limited to less than 2 kW max demand each ( the battery is 110kW max output ), so dont think about bioling a kettle let alone turning a heater on !
        And even with less than 1.8 kw draw, it will only last 4 hours..!..
        In reality, it would be lucky to supply enough power for 20 houses…assuming it was fully charged ?

        40

    • #
      el gordo

      It might be cost effective if smaller versions could be constructed for isolated communities.

      21

    • #
      robert rosicka

      Yeah the cost is something never mentioned nor the reason for needing a stand alone system and add to this the WA authority saying they are going to turn off roof top solar when demand is low and solar is high this will work just great in the minds of green economists.

      50

      • #
        Chad

        robert rosicka
        July 1, 2020 at 8:41 am ·
        Yeah the cost is something never mentioned

        As a guide , the Tesla batteries (PowerPacks), currently being installed at the Hornsdale site in SA, are costing $1100 /kWh. ..( but much bigger capacity at 64.5 MWh..so economy of scale ?)
        Which would put those 464 kWh units at about half a million Au dollars each. !
        These commercial Powerpacks are built in units of 230kWh.

        10

      • #
        Graeme#4

        There still seems to be some confusion over the AEMO statements, which are detailed in their report. I believe that what they were saying was that they didn’t want solar system to export power back to the grid during times of low grid energy usage and high solar output. This wouldn’t require the house solar system to be shut down as the latest inverters automatically stop exporting when the grid voltage is high.

        00

        • #
          Chad

          Graeme#4..
          The AEMO were refering to SA where the amount of RT solar is much higher (900MW max) and closer to minimal grid demand .
          They want more than to just stop RT solar feeding back to the grid.
          What the AEMO want is the ability to shut down the RT solar panel output completely, ..even for the owner household use…in order to increase the demand load on the main grid generators to prevent them going below minimal critical load level and having to shut down completely.

          20

          • #
            Graeme#4

            Chad, you and others have said that AEMO want to do more, but I’ve just gone back and re-read Appendix A of the RIS, and I cannot find any statement that supports this assertion.
            While they have mentioned things they COULD possibly do, at no time do they state these are their immediate aims.
            I believe that it’s important to focus on their clearly-stated proposed actions in the RIS, and not listen to Zibelman, who doesn’t appear to comprehend the RIS contents.
            If you believe that it’s clearly stated in the RIS that AEMO want to shut down the house solar systems entirely, then I would appreciate knowing which RIS section you are referring to.

            10

            • #
              Chad

              G#4
              Appendix A ..Page 53
              They refer to the need for “Generation Shedding” fom DPVs and how to achive that.
              In the main Report, ..page 43,..Table 8,..actions 3.1 and 3.2 , they refer to the required changes for inverters to enable generation shedding as being “ in progress”
              The report is typicallyvaguely worded to not make the meaning or intent obvious to anyone casually reading it.
              But Zeiblemann basicly summed it up in laymans terms…
              “We need to control RT solar panel output if necessary to prevent grid problems.”

              00

    • #
      Peter Fitzroy

      you could have read what I posted. but to help you

      1. Each unit is designed for supply to a small suburb/estate – which is why this is the 6th
      2. You pay to have your power stored, which is where the ROI will be realised
      3. It gains efficiency by effectively flattening demand, which is why the WA distribution company is installing them.
      4. For what I’ve read, this solution is cheaper than upgrading upstream infrastructure, which again is why the WA distribution company is installing them
      5. there are another 7 batteries in the Perth grid, but they are used for mostly demand management and are not open to store power for consumers.
      6. the WA distribution company is able to borrow at around 1% and that is under the 2% rate of inflation, which makes up front funding simples, and does not mean that prices will rise.

      17

      • #
        Chad

        Whilst there are bound to be “pros and cons” to these battery installations,…i suspect the “Pros” are all financial benefits to the distribution company, ..and the “Cons” are also financial deficits to both the consumers using it and the rest of the consumers who will pay for it in increased “Distribution Costs”. On their bills !
        At best, each of these 464KWh batteries can service 50 or so, homes each, as the discharge rating is just 110kW !
        So the entire $6.5 million programme could benefit 650 consumers max..
        I dont see how that solves many problems..?

        60

      • #
        AndyG55

        1. so how many houses can be powered on a sunless day ?

        Average usage , say 40kWh, 460kWh battery … that is around 12 houses.

        Its a joke in other words.

        2. If you are storing it from your government subsidised panels, you can’t be using it.

        3. Yes, upgrading infrastructure to cope with the unreliability of wind and solar, is very expensive.. Thanks for pointing that out.

        4. “there are another 7 batteries in the Perth grid” 7 x 12 = 84 houses… woopy-doo !!!

        The whole thing TOTALLY RELIES on the RELIABLE supply from gas.

        Its a niche fiddle around the edges, for absolutely no reason at all except virtue-signalling.

        50

      • #
      • #
        AndyG55

        We did read what you posted. It was quite funny ! :-)

        “to store surplus rooftop production for the literal ‘rainy day’”

        for 12 homes for a day.. then nothing until the sun shines again

        Not very useful , is it!

        Totally reliant on the GAS fired grid.

        50

      • #
        Graeme No.3

        Peter Fitzroy:

        The purpose of these batteries is for rapid response during generation drop, e.g. cloud over Perth or a sudden drop in wind speed, but it’s major use is to cover the peak increase in demand when the sun goes down and backup plants are just starting up. (It’s less stress on them if they can ease up for full output not fire up under full load – much as aeroplanes warm up their engines for some time before they need full power for takeoff).
        Assuming that the sun shines the right amount every day of the year, and that the batteries can be as rapidly discharged as claimed, then the payback time is 38 years.

        The SA government is encouraging householders to install batteries charged by solar panels. With SA (“home state of renewables”) the electricity price (at peak) would be about triple that in WA so these systems would pay for themselves in about 10 years, by which time the batteries would be degraded and the inverter defunct. That is assuming that the sun shines hours EVERY day.

        40

    • #
      Graeme#4

      Perth has had a succession of “rainy days” for over a week, where the solar energy can drop to half normal output. So I doubt very much that a shared battery would compensate for all that lost energy over a week.

      50

      • #
        Graeme#4

        As an example, my solar generates 25-30 kWh/day in summer, but currently it’s generating no more than 10 kWh daily, with Sunday down to only 5kWh. So there is no way a battery could compensate for this on a daily basis.

        10

  • #
    RicDre

    New Liberty Mutual Climate Policy: Coal Mines Owned by Liberty are Still OK

    Liberty Mutual as part of its new climate policy has pulled their support for the enormous Adani Carmichael coal project, but has decided to maintain support for a new metallurgical coal mine wholly owned by themselves, because it “provides hundreds of jobs”.

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/06/30/new-liberty-mutual-climate-policy-coal-mines-owned-by-liberty-are-still-ok/

    00

  • #
    Another Ian

    Maybe time to check your gold bars on the bathroom scales

    “83 Tons Of Fake Gold Bars: Gold Market Rocked By Massive China Counterfeiting Scandal”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/83-tons-fake-gold-bars-gold-market-rocked-massive-china-counterfeiting-scandal

    20

    • #
      Jojodogfacedboy

      Melted mine into an anchor, just can’t find any water to hide it in…hmmmm.
      Oh, oh, just realized that my anchor could sink my boat. Too heavy.

      00

  • #
    Another Ian

    Another “Woke or Broke”?

    “McDonalds or Black Lives Matter?”

    https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2020/06/mcdonalds-or-black-lives-matter.html

    20

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      I have had McDonalds 3 times in my life, the last time being in 1991 to avoid arguing with my then boss. As far as I am concerned they would do better improving their product rather than advertising the latest Woke fad, but then they wouldn’t gain much extra business and it’s probably cheaper to indulge in mindless drivel.

      40

  • #
    Rowjay

    A significant wind stagnation event lasting from about 15:00 hrs on Tuesday 23rd to 18:00 hrs on Sunday 28th (more than 5 days!) occurred in eastern Australia this week. This resulted in the halving of the ACT Renewables mix capacity factor from 42% last week to 20% this week. Millmerran also fell back – from 100% last week to a still impressive 97% this week. Daily performance and weekly summary as follows:
    :
    ACT 100% Renewables – Total Nameplate – 613.5 MW from 133,000 solar panels and 186 wind turbines
    :
    Date : MWh produced : Capacity Factor
    22/06/2020 : 7,093 : 48%
    23/06/2020 : 4,568 : 31%
    24/06/2020 : 2,300 : 16%
    25/06/2020 : 2,130 : 14%
    26/06/2020 : 541 : 4%
    27/06/2020 : 1,586 : 11%
    28/06/2020 : 2,017 : 14%
    Weekly sum : 20,234 : 20%
    :
    compared to Unit 2 of the black coal supercritical Millmerran Power Station (MPP_2) , with:
    Nameplate capacity – 426 MW from one 17 year old unit
    :
    Date : MWh produced : Capacity Factor
    22/06/2020 : 9,872 : 97%
    23/06/2020 : 9,690 : 95%
    24/06/2020 : 9,579 : 94%
    25/06/2020 : 9,915 : 97%
    26/06/2020 : 9,848 : 96%
    27/06/2020 : 9,790 : 96%
    28/06/2020 : 10,391 : 102%
    Weekly sum : 69,085 : 97%
    :
    I present these figures in the hope that others will truely appreciate how variable the wind patterns are in our part of the world as I do now, and how reliable the output is from traditional generators. Relying on wind and solar without an equivalent capacity as backup is a pointless, grid de-stabilising high cost exercise. So far this month, there have been 10 wind stagnation events lasting from a couple of hours to 5 days. On 6 occasions during these stagnation events, wind output was negative – presumably the towers were drawing on the grid to keep spinning while waiting for a breeze. Thanks to TonyfromOZ for educating me on the renewables situation.

    Wouldn’t it be great to have an Aneroid-type presentation on the TV news reporting on renewables power output for the previous 24 hours as part of the weather report.

    80

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      Rowjay,
      Wonderful news!!!!!!!! Thanks to Peter Fitzroy the answer is for Canberra to install 106 neighbourhood batteries, or more if the hiatus lasts longer. That would only require $352 billion. That’s only $13,500 per head.

      50

  • #
    el gordo

    Reds under the bed, not likely.

    ‘Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Zhao Lijian said he would not comment on Australia’s domestic affairs, before accusing some Australian politicians of “paranoia, dominated by China-phobia and conjecture”.

    “Under the guise of ‘values’, they often make groundless accusations against China in domestic politics, stigmatise and demonise … cooperation with China, and poison the atmosphere of bilateral relations,” Zhao said. “This is totally unconstructive and irresponsible.”

    Zhao also claimed there was “irrefutable evidence” of Australian spying in China, without offering examples.

    SCMP

    20

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Well given how bullying China has become, our government has an obligation to spy on China, so we know what the buggers are up to before it gets announced.
      Doing anything else would be a betrayal of the Australian . people.
      (This will flush out the China trolls with their red thumbies ! :-) )

      23

      • #
        Chad

        Of course we “monitor” Chinese activities, just as we do other countries..USA included.
        It just depends on your definition of “spying” ?
        Normally it is assumed to be secret internal activities, and policy decisions for military activities.
        But China consider everything a “State secret” …even weather forecast !

        20

        • #
          el gordo

          ‘It just depends on your definition of “spying” ?’

          Relying on memory, Australia spied on Timor for commercial advantage and going even further back, we spied on the previous Indonesian president.

          00

    • #
      PeterW

      Having a very large, powerful neighbour with a Political philosophy of world-domination and which is currently engaged in territorial expansion…. and not keeping a very wary eye on their activities would be fundamentally negligent.

      It’s not paranoia. It’s basic national security.

      40

      • #
        el gordo

        This will be a test case to see if the Australian authorities have enough evidence to prove Beijing is interfering with our political system.

        Beijing only want to take over the world commercially, not militarily. The Belt and Road was primarily designed to open up new markets, its the only way capitalism can hope to survive.

        Their political philosophy at the moment has strong fascist tendencies, but I’m confident that we can convince our biggest trading partner that democracy is not to be feared.

        03

  • #
    Cameron J

    Hi Jo, on your below comment from 3 months ago, do you still consider yourself conservative regarding this pandemic?

    I ask because Sweden – without a “hard lockdown” – is tracking to less than one tenth of your deaths estimate in the first wave (according to worldometers.info at least), an estimate based on supposedly conservative assumptions.

    Jo Nova
    March 30, 2020 at 12:25 am
    Cameron, You want millions. Get ready to rethink — Seven billion on Earth have no immunity. There is no vaccine, and no definitive treatment.
    Conservatively assuming a 1% fatality rate with an attack rate of 60% (which some estimate will be 80%) that means 42 million people die in the first wave.
    But regions like Hubei, Iran, Italy are seeing death rates of 5% as their hospitals are swamped. That’s likely to be the mortality rate in Africa, Indonesia, and maybe India if they don’t clamp down with major quarantines. (And how can high density poor nations do that anyway?)
    The virus spreads two or three times as fast as influenza with an Ro of 3+, has a fatality rate that is at least 5 times worse than influenza (thats the South Korean most optimistic stat) but in most countries the fatality rate appears to be from 1 – 5% depending on whether their hospitals get overwhelmed. And even the richest countries on Earth will be overwhelmed if we don’t lock down.
    So the tally without major quarantine could easily be 40m to 200m, and that’s not counting collateral damage of all the cancer patients who didn’t get treatment, or stroke patients, suicides, etc etc.
    With a hard lockdown we will keep numbers much much lower. I’m optimistic we will develop treatments that work within months. We will beat this in the West, but I despair for the poor nations. we could top the 30 year total accumulated death toll from malaria.
    My headlines have been conservative. This is likely the worst pandemic you or I will face in our lifetimes.
    For one month the second largest economy in the world, a brutal regime not known for caring about it’s own citizens lost 80% of its economy to this virus. You’ve been missing the biggest story this century.

    51

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Do you want info about Sweden Cameron ?

      Just look around here :
      https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

      Population 10 million and 5333 dead from Covid 19
      What’s so good about that ?

      06

      • #

        you are not addressing his point Bill. I don’t see any claim of “goodness” in his post so a bit of a petulant straw man there.

        51

      • #
        Cameron J

        That’s a lot less than the 60,000 Jo “conservatively” predicted without a “hard lockdown” Bill.
        That’s what’s not so much “good”, but less alarming about that.

        Also, I actually referenced worldometers, not sure why you feel you need to educate me with the same information I provided. Curious.

        91

        • #
          Bill In Oz

          Ahhh I see.
          You are criticising the ‘quality’ of Jo’s crystal ball forecast in February.
          Only 5300 died in Sweden and Jo predicted 60,000.
          Well that’s the funny thing about warnings.
          They are given to warn people and so avoid the event predicted.
          They heed the warning and do things suggested to avoid what has been predicted.
          In this case, without the benefit of a government lock down,
          Swedes stopped going out a lot.
          Swedes started working from home
          Swedes washed their hands & used sanitiser
          Swedes coped the social distancing advice provided
          By governments in their neighbour countries – Denmark & Norway & Finland
          Etc. Etc.Etc.
          We in Australia did the same but we we had governments which requested and ordered them as well.

          14

          • #
            Cameron J

            “They are given to warn people and so avoid the event predicted.”

            That’s what climate alarmists who are constantly wrong keep saying. We (that includes you) still call them alarmist.

            41

            • #
              Bill In Oz

              The science is not there for the global warming scam.
              That’s why it’s plain old alarmist nonsense.
              But as Jo’s posts since early February this pandemic is dangerous and very infectious.

              PS The folks who wrote that 2006 paper had never experienced a full on global pandemic
              The last one was the Spanish Flu in 1918-19.
              None of them were alive to see that pandemic.
              It’s very very foolish making suggestions
              About how to deal effectively with a global pandemic
              Without any hands on experience.
              And these silly fellows decided to ignore all the medical advice from the Spanish flu.
              NOT CLEVER !

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              • #
                Cameron J

                I’m guessing you are saying you don’t think Jo was being alarmist even though her prediction was more than 10 times the actual?
                And why would Jo make a “crystal ball forecast” as a scientist?

                PS Interesting how you keep changing the subject. Climate alarmists are good at that too.

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        yarpos

        Talking absolutes whe it suits the argument. Overall excess deaths in Sweden were more than some and less than others in the EU zone. Overall tracking more like Switzerland. Trying to be emotive with nos games are played with doesnt say much, about the issue at leasr.

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    • #

      I’d say that what is missing from Jo’s estimates and assumptions is the effect of moderate government imposed intervention and a well informed population that takes the threat seriously. The Swedes are not doing nothing, they are, without explicit lock down laws, informing the population and facilitating people to act as though they are locked down.

      Sweden is not an example of a laissez faire response – it is not a hard lockdown but it is a response with an outcome which looks to be better than predicted.

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      • #
        PeterW

        Sweden is not a “Claytons lockdown”. It is an example of a nation educating its people regarding the risks and precautions, then letting them do what seems sensible to them.

        People will tend (repeat tend) to act in what they perceive to be their own best interests… and are often better able to judge those interests that some remote bureaucrat or “expert” with little skin in the game. Given that, it then becomes valid to ask how much extra benefit that hard lockdown has given us.

        Bear in mind that most publicly-cited figures for infection rates are based on what I understand to be a single-criteria test. There are – and I can’t cite them at the moment – an increasing number of immunologists arguing that the human immune system has multiple modes and that a proportion of the population show signs of exposure that is not reflected by anti-body tests. My point is that there is still plenty to learn, so assuming that Lockdowns should get all the credit for fatality rates far lower than predicted, is not clever.

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    David Wojick

    Climate alarmism versus integrity at National Academies of Science
    by David Wojick
    https://www.cfact.org/2020/06/28/climate-alarmism-versus-integrity-at-national-academies-of-science/

    The beginning:
    “National Academies of Science should speak out against climate alarmism, not support it. This is the major message in a recent letter from Professor Guus Berkhout, president of CLINTEL, to the new head of the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences. The integrity of science is at stake.
    This letter is a model for how all alarmist National Academies should be addressed. For example, the US National Academy of Sciences (NAS) is painfully alarmist. Even worse, NAS has been joined in promoting alarmism by its two siblings, the National Academies of Engineering and Medicine. The fact that these Academies have become a servant of supranational political organizations such as IPCC shows how serious the crisis in climate science really is.”

    Please share this.

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    PeterW

    Forcing people to remain in their homes with potentially sick family members increases infra-family transmission of flu.

    Who would have guessed.?

    Oh…… http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.552.1109&rep=rep1&type=pdf

    “The interest in quarantine reflects views and conditions prevalent more than 50 years ago, when much less was known about the epidemiology of infectious diseases and when there was far less international and domestic travel in a less densely populated world. It is difficult to identify circumstances in the past half-century when large-scale quarantine has been effectively used in the control of any disease. The negative consequences of large-scale quarantine are so extreme (forced confine- ment of sick people with the well; complete restriction of movement of large populations; difficulty in getting crit- ical supplies, medicines, and food to people inside the quarantine zone) that this mitigation measure should be eliminated from serious consideration

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    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Sure Peter ….From 2006 ?
      A bit outdated mate.

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      • #
        PeterW

        Bill…. You trying to tell us that humans have changed?

        Sure, Bill……

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      • #
        PeterW

        ….and before anyone joins Bill in his chronological snobbery, it’s a bit rich to dismiss material from 06 – written by a team led by one of the foremost experts in the subject – when you’ve accepted arguments supporting quarantine dating back to the Middle-Ages.

        This paper represents the common doctrine immediately prior to the advent of COVID-19 and the clamour that Government should “do something”, regardless of cost. It is the doctrine cited by the Swedes, which has given comparable results to a number of similar countries after controlling for variables such as the presence of particularly vulnerable minorities.

        I supported the lockdown early, when we did not know what we were facing. I do not believe that it is a sustainable solution, economic or politically. There is a price to be paid for over-reaction. A price that will be measured in lives, not just dollars.

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      Bill In Oz

      Peter I prefer to use the cutting edge when it comes to such diseases
      And especially pandemic diseases
      The Covid 19 pandemic shows that your 2006 source is irrelevant
      As an informed guide to how to deal with a pandemic disease.

      Open your eyes man & your brain !
      Since January we have had many instances where quarantine
      And closing the borders has worked well
      I live in South Australia and it’s worked here
      Other states where it has worked include NT, ACT, Qld, Tasmania.
      And then there are other countries like New Zealand Tonga, Fiji, Taiwan, South Korea,etc etc

      You are barracking for a source which is irrelevant & uninformed and out of date.
      So what is your agenda Peter ?
      Spread the virus as far as possible as quickly as possible ?

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      • #
        PeterW

        Bill…. You are indulging in marginal honesty, personal attack and bad science.

        What is YOUR agenda? Bugger the rest of us as long as your fears are pandered to?

        You are making claims for the extent of knowledge about the current epidemic that are simply not justified.
        The models have failed to accurately predict either infection or fatality rates. Even the “perfect” conditions for communication on the Princess ships has failed to produce the level of infections that were predicted.

        You are welcome to do whatever YOU want, to keep yourself “safe”. But you do not have the right to impose your fears on the rest of us. ….. Here’s the deal. I won’t come to your house if you don’t come to mine.

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        • #
          PeterW

          Bill is following the Climate Alarmist manual.

          Dismiss any science that doesn’t suit you.
          Vilify those who point out problems with your theory.
          Claim that the models are proof and only your preferred course of action has/will prevent disaster.

          C’mon mate. You can do better.

          Incidentally, this is the gentleman that you claimed in “uninformed and irrelevant”. He only led the effort to eradicate smallpox, the only successful program of its type in history. You know more than he does, of course.
          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Henderson

          51

        • #
          Bill In Oz

          Now that Peter is a great example of WXC’s smelly brown stuff !
          My agenda is saving people’s lives..Nothing else.
          Yours ?

          05

  • #
    el gordo

    Extremes in weather, particularly cool wet European summers, is a sign of global cooling.

    ‘Following last week’s heatwave, the weather across the UK has made a turn into the opposite direction with much lower temperatures, showers of rain and wind to dominate this week.

    ‘A yellow rain warning put in place by the Met Office on Sunday morning will remain in place until 3pm on Monday, covering a huge swathe of the west of Scotland and northern England and Northern Ireland.’ Independent

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    • #
      Another Ian

      “A yellow rain warning ”

      Is that what makes yellow snow?

      10

      • #
        el gordo

        According to The Sun: Yellow is the least dangerous out of the weather warnings – it means “be aware”.

        Severe weather is possible over the next few days and could affect you.

        This potentially means cancelling plans, having to deal with travel delays, road and rail closures, interruption to power and the potential risk to life and property.

        00

  • #
    Paul Miskelly

    Peter Fitzroy,
    On Tuesday 14 June last, or thereabouts, I gave you a task. It was that you read the relevant papers on renewables by UK Professor Michael Kelly and to provide a detailed rebuttal, if you could, by Friday 20 June 2020.
    Had you carried out that task, you might have learned about the utter futility of the use of your “community batteries” and you therefore might have been rather less inclined to provide us with your gushing report, (#4), here today.

    Prof Kelly shows that each such battery represents both a considerable environmental impact in the sheer quantity of materials that have to be mined, separated, refined, and that such processing requires substantial energy inputs that can be provided only by the consumption of fossil fuels, leading to substantial upstream CO2 emissions even before such batteries become operational.
    Remember too that a battery is not a generator, so the energy and environmental costs of the solar PV systems for which the battery represents a band-aid backup need go into that impacts equation as well.

    He also shows, to which others here have already alluded, that, because such batteries offer what is a relatively low energy storage density, the number of batteries required to have any substantial impact within any grid is simply staggering, as is of course the consequent environmental and CO2 emissions impacts, let alone the cost implications.

    Remember too, Peter, that these batteries are required only for the support of intermittent generation, such as solar PV and wind generation. “Real” generators don’t require them as they have all the necessary facilities to provide both synchronous inertia and any power-factor correction built in.

    So, might I suggest that you now do as I requested of you some 3 weeks ago, that you read Prof Kelly’s articles and provide a detailed review/rebuttal on Jo’s next available Open Thread. You can find the articles at:
    https://www.thegwpf.org/prof-michael-kelly-energy-policy-needs-herds-of-unicorns/ ,
    where the article may be downloaded as:
    https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2019/11/KellyWeb.pdf .
    The following is also very helpful:
    https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2020/05/KellyDecarb-1.pdf

    Professor Michael Kelly is on of the UK’s foremost electrical engineers. Given his background and impressive professional reputation, I suggest that what he has chosen to say on this topic is not easily ignored.

    Regards,

    Paul Miskelly

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  • #
    DonS

    Hi Jo

    Not sure if you heard but yesterday the Morrison, supposedly right of center government, announced that it would be giving another 5 billion dollars to the Snowy 2.0 scheme to make it even bigger! They haven’t even got the first stage built and tested as viable but they already want to expand it. This crackpot Turnbull boondoggle that was supposed to cost 2 billion all up and be working in 2021 is now getting close to 15 billion dollars and will not be operational anytime soon.

    In the meantime the same prime minister Morrison at a press conference on Monday decided to start the old dole bludger meme running which has since been jumped on and amplified by the usual, conservatives when it suits us, media types. If your one of the 1.5 million Aussies who lost their jobs due the this governments inaction in not closing the boarders at the start of the pandemic and are struggling on government assistance to pay your power bills then be comforted to know that your PM is out there fighting to ensure your future bills will be massively more expensive.

    How did we let these clueless stooges get their hands on power? We can only hope that after the upheaval of this year that people will be more careful about who the vote for next time. I won’t ho;d my breath :)

    30

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      How much will they spend on rainmaking? After all pumped storage requires lots of water in either the top or bottom dam.
      They will have to curtail sending water for irrigation which will annoy the farmers, and also ‘environmental flows’ to the Snowy river, which will annoy the Greens.

      And since this is an open thread you may have heard the one about the 3 shipwrecked missionaries brought before the cannibal chief.
      The chief examined the plump C of E clergyman and asked why he had come to the island? The clergyman said “I have come to bring Goodness to you”.
      “Splendid” said the chief “roast him on the spit”.
      Then the chief asked the lean Presbyterian why he had come to the island? “To warn you about the evil to come if you don’t change your ways” was the answer.
      “Splendid” said the chief “boil him in the big pot until he is digestible”.
      Then he asked the third and was told “I am a Green and want you to stop eating meat as it damages the environment”.
      “Rubbish” said the chief “throw him to the sharks”.

      20

      • #
        Dennis

        But when the Catholic not mentioned was threatened with being boiled he protested: “no way you can boil me, I’m a friar.

        60

        • #
          Graeme No.3

          I adjusted (homogenised?) the last line to get it through the Mods. And yes, the original involved a Catholic clergyman.

          10

    • #
      Rowjay

      Hello DonS – the “clueless stooges” as you put it are trying to counteract a similar group in the general population who are mercilessly pushing for unsustainable wind/solar projects without any sort of backup option – $5 billion won’t buy you enough batteries to fix the issues these are causing. With the Torrens A conventional gas plant in SA and Liddel coal plant in NSW scheduled for shutdown in the near future, a spinning option like hydro is the best bet to stabilise the grid and add some punch when needed during peak usage times when the wind stagnates, and use the inevitable oversupply when the wind picks up and decides to spin about 14 GW nameplate when it is not needed for daily use. Where will the water come from you may well ask – same place as the wind and just as unpredictable. The CSIRO had a Cloud Physics section in the early 1970′s which worked out that seeding dry (low moisture) clouds is rather pointless and its best to wait until it rains – and it will.

      30

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    greggg

    ‘But the pandemic experience has brought on a surprising effect on this expected death rate among children. Starting in early March, expected deaths began a sharp decline, from an expected level of around 700 deaths per week to well under 500 by mid-April and throughout May. As untimely deaths spiked among the elderly in Manhattan nursing homes and in similar settings all over the country, something mysterious was saving the lives of children. As springtime in America came along with massive disruptions in family life amid near-universal lockdowns, roughly 30% fewer children died.’
    https://healthchoice.org/lessons-from-the-lockdown/

    20

  • #
    Robber

    4.30 am Thursday morning, and in SA, wind delivered 101% of demand, gas 20%, with the surplus exported to Vic.
    Yet same time last Friday, wind 0.1%, battery 0.4%, gas 53%, and imports from Vic 47%.
    Is that any way to run an essential service?

    10

  • #
    ErgoWeSurrender

    Michael Levitt critiques the “science” of epidemiology and shows that only Sweden got it right.
    From the mouth of the dangerous Australian bigot – Peter Doherty – who predicted 14,000 deaths if Australia followed the same path as the UK. He also gives himself away when he declares: “I only wish we could take the same approach when we’re talking about issues like climate science.” Source: https://vimeo.com/433350887/33bbbe4090

    So Peter Doherty is a left-wing globalist, working on a vaccine as the only solution, and advising the Australian government and public. This dangerous bigot from Australia, who is more interested in “experimentation” [sic] than scientific facts, convinced that C19 will only be solved with a vaccine (no clues what his work involves), and all of the rest including the two young ‘scientists’, seem to be more interested in pushing globalist agenda’s like global warming, social and diversity agendas which have no place in science. They all nodded heads in sympathy and agreed with each other- what a performance! Thank God for the one sane person Michael Levitt who appears to have done more work on C19 than the entire rest of the group in this interview, and in a counterpoint to the two young social justice warriors, noted that he is witness to discrimination of many older scientists to make way for the young and diverse. Clearly there is no longer any respect for wisdom. The rest of the interview was like any other MSM farce.

    10

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    Graeme#4

    Today’s analysis of the Shellenberger book by John Tierney in The Australian is a devastating article, and really needs to be read by everybody here:
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/michael-shellenberger-book-apocalypse-never-exposes-environmental-activists/news-story/097de23d23b0264686050f3259cec89f

    10

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