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Manufacturers getting ready to get out of Victoria this summer if power fails

It’s a nervous wait til summer. The Australian grid appears to be in slightly better shape than a couple of months ago, but it’s still so shaky manufacturers admit they are developing contingency plans to move operations interstate if a blackout hits, or they get attacked by a bout of high prices:

Something that doesn’t happen in competent countries with reliable electricity:

Victorian manufacturers prepare for power crunch

Angela McDonald-Smith and Mark Ludlow, AFR

Manufacturers are drawing up contingency plans to shift operations out of Victoria this summer as fears of blackouts and sky-high electricity prices for the March quarter keep nerves on edge.

While worries about blackouts in Victoria have eased in the past three months, Coca-Cola chief executive Alison Watkins said on Friday the company was prepared to beef up manufacturing in other states should the worst-case scenario eventuate in Victoria and generation fall short of demand.

Just another burden and inefficiency on business.

As power gets more expensive and unreliable the Victorian government is blaming coal:

Victoria’s Energy Minister, Lily D’Ambrosio, reiterated her concern that the increasing failure of ageing privately owned coal power generators was the biggest threat to Victoria’s power supply. She noted the work by AEMO “to secure the back-up power we need to compensate for this unreliability”.

The definition of incompetence is having a 430-billion tonne brown coal reserve but not enough electricity to operate the  manufacturers that haven’t already left.

In any case, old coal plants don’t have to die, we could just keep fixing them. But the land of incompetence not only seems to have forgotten how, but it’s forgetting that it ever could. Running the behemoths in an increasingly peaky grid, with more volatile demand, higher voltage swings, and more outages, while on shrinking profit margins and in a culture of doom is hardly conducive to good corporate maintenance.

Saved by fossil fuels:

South Australia, with more renewables than anywhere, seems rather desperate to get gas power:

AGL this month switched on its new $295 million Barker Inlet gas plant outside Adelaide and has won approval to defer the mothballing of units at its Torrens Island plant until at least March.

Saved by jet engines

South Australia rushing to add another lean green jet engine to the fleet by summer:

The new generator, an Aeroderivative Open Cycle Gas Turbine, is a variation of a jet plane engine and has the capacity to reach full load within five minutes from start. The new turbine is more environmentally friendly, using half the amount of fuel of other generators on site.

The Hallett power station at Canowie, around 210 kilometres north of Adelaide, currently has 12 operating turbines with total generation capacity of 203 MW, enough to power over 60,000 South Australian homes. — Energy Australia

 Saved by other people’s money

In this case the money comes from hapless customers who have to pay more because the law says they can’t choose to buy electricity from cheaper generators.

After adding more renewables per capita than anywhere on Earth strangely electricity is not cheaper yet, and not forecast to ever get cheaper than  what it used to be before we got all those renewables.

Forward prices for wholesale power reflect the concerns, with Victoria’s March quarter price now at $147/MWh, having risen early in the winter and only marginally softened. The plant outages, combined with the drought, drove Victoria’s average spot power price to $98/MWh in the September quarter, the fifth highest quarter on record, AEMO said.

Victoria’s March quarter price is now almost 45 per cent above that in NSW, which has also risen north of $100/MWh.

 

Bring out your wallet.

VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
Rating: 9.7/10 (87 votes cast)
Manufacturers getting ready to get out of Victoria this summer if power fails, 9.7 out of 10 based on 87 ratings

275 comments to Manufacturers getting ready to get out of Victoria this summer if power fails

  • #
    Curious George

    “The new turbine is more environmentally friendly, using half the amount of fuel of other generators on site.” This contrasts nicely with https://twugbcn.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/peaker-case-histories.pdf: Open cycle gas turbine plants, without a steam cycle, are sometimes installed as peaking capacity; their thermal efficiency is much lower. The high running cost per hour is offset by the low capital cost and the intention to run such units only a few hundred hours per year.

    250

    • #
      JohnM

      CG,
      I enjoy reading your comments, they are uselly insightful.

      Yet, what fool(s) destroy a power supply without proper transition?

      Who cares what new “thing” down the road if power can’t be maintained in transition?

      I blame ignorance for the issues!

      Best,
      John

      180

    • #
      JohnM

      Now I’m really confused – please explain !
      https://www.australias.guide/vic/history/

      40

    • #
      DaveR

      Curious George,
      Greens will only understand your comment if you explain to them that the capital cost of any power infrastructure needs to be depreciated over its working life, and that cost added to the actual cash operating cost.

      At the moment, most Greens think that the capital costs of power plant, new transmission lines, backup facilities and grid stabilisation plant are all free (ie someone else pays).

      260

      • #

        …are all free (ie someone else pays).

        And they’d be correct. That cornucopia called the taxpayer makes it all free for the ‘Big Oil’ companies profiting from this rubbish.

        20

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      Given that older style gas turbines are around 35% efficient, then the new one using half the fuel must either reach 70% efficiency or be considerably smaller.

      And since the manufacturer of (closed cycle) gas turbines was celebrating getting to 63% efficiency earlier this year, the first option could only be achieved by copious supplies of bull dust.

      230

    • #
      Geoffrey Williams

      I think that gas turbines are all ‘much of a muchness’ efficiency wise on their own.
      The real difference is in closing the cycle ie using the exhaust gas to operate an HRSG and a steam generator. This increases the overall efficiency I think by about 45%.
      Can somebody confirm.
      GeoffW

      60

      • #
        Graeme No.3

        Geoffrey:

        Not quite. The Open Cycle ones reach around 35-42% efficiency. They have improved in recent years. Bear in mind that wear and tear reduces the efficiency as they age, i.e. the more on/off cycling the more stress/heat cracking.

        Closed cycles start around 55% overall efficiency with the latest reaching 63% as above. They are normally operated for long time periods, hence less problems with stress cracking, and a lower cost per MWh than Open Cycle types. The problem found in Ireland was that using Closed Cycle plants (More efficient – less CO2 per unit MWh – box ticked by bureaucrat) to balance (or try to) variable wind (box ticked by bureaucrat) reduced the efficiency, increased stresses hence more maintenance, and increased CO2 emissions.

        20

    • #

      The key phrase being “on site”.
      ““The new turbine is more environmentally friendly, using half the amount of fuel of other generators on site.””

      They could equally have said:
      “… using half the amount of fuel of the other jet engines around it.”

      That would be more informative, but would have undone the point of the sentence which was not to inform but to score with green phrases: “more environmentally friendly” and “half the fuel”.

      190

    • #
      Bill Hall

      Doesn’t the efficiency (and power output) of these gas turbines decrease significantly on a hot day too ? Simple “PV=NrT” ?

      10

    • #
      observa

      “The new generator, an Aeroderivative Open Cycle Gas Turbine, is a variation of a jet plane engine and has the capacity to reach full load within five minutes from start. The new turbine is more environmentally friendly, using half the amount of fuel of other generators on site.”

      Yes the full statement is a lot more enlightening as it’s really a peaking plant called into action when bid prices are extremely high because the wind aint blowing and the sun aint shining. That’s when the mugs get to pay for the capital outlay that lies idle waiting for its cue to prop up the unreliables and all the fuzzy accounting going on with true costs.
      You want true accounting it could be done at the stroke of a pen and implementing the level playing field. No tenderer of electrons to the communal grid can tender any more than they can reasonably guarantee (ie short of unforeseen mechanical breakdown) 24/7/365 along with minm FCAS levels. The unreliables dumping game would be finished in an instant as they had to install storage to lift their average tender or partner with thermal to insure them and pay them their just insurance premia or some combination of the two. But that would smash their capital investments with true level playing field costs.

      30

  • #
    John F. Hultquist

    with total generation capacity of 203 MW, enough to power over 60,000 South Australian homes

    A rather useless comparison.
    This idea of “homes” seems to be a favorite of media and political types.
    More interesting question would be how many unreliable wind turbines (& batteries) might these 12 gas turbines replace.

    ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
    If Coca-Cola moves out of Victoria to another state will the products be carted back to Victoria by Unicorn carts and/or wind-powered carrier (land yacht)?
    Sail Wagon

    260

    • #
      PeterPetrum

      What happens when the waggon “goes about”?!

      60

      • #
      • #
        JoKaH

        What happens when the waggon doesn’t go about- link

        40

      • #
        sophocles

        What happens when the waggon “goes about”?!

        … the load shifts from one side to the other. If it’s done fast enough, a capsize can occur.

        20

        • #
          Roy Hogue

          Forgive my wild imagination but now I have pictures in my head of Vic going “on the wagon” and I expected AA meetings next. But maybe it couldn’t hurt if you want out from under a bad situation to have some sort of withdrawal support system in place when the movers and shakers find out the economy of the whole state is collapsing as it certainly must if the wealth creators all leave.

          Just thinking maybe some sort of a simulation game would keep the movers and shakers all happy while you put things back together. They could keep on fiddling with things they shouldn’t fiddle with but it would all be harmless. Everybody wins… …naw, never work, Roy. Go back to sleep. ;-)

          10

    • #
      Graeme#4

      I also have problems with this quoted figure. At 100% efficiency, that’s only 3.38 kW per home. As Graeme has pointed out in 1.4, actual efficiency is much lower, so if we work on 50%, that’s only 1.7 kW a home. Of course it all depends on whether the figure quoted was actual output – if it was, then we are back to 3.38 kW/home.

      60

      • #
        Chad

        you are confusing kW and kWh
        3.38 kW per home would suggest 80+kWh per home per day !
        An “average home” consumes an “average “ of less than 1.0kW. (<24kWh per day)

        10

    • #
      Another Ian

      If Coca-Cola quits the drinking toast in Victoria will be

      “If we had some coke
      We could have a rum and coke
      If we had some rum”

      70

    • #
      liberator

      Yep homes, always the comparison, what about industry, how many factories, businesses, hospitals can that run? A home without power is an inconvenience for most people. Industry/businesses without power are going to go broke, kill people, or close up shop.

      90

    • #
      Sceptical Sam

      Yes. But there is a very real additional benefit to the recipient state in that more of its CO2 will be used in the manufacture of the bubbles in the coke, hence it will be able to claim it’s reducing its “Carbon” footprint. Which means Victoriastan will have doubly shot itself in the foot, firstly by losing the jobs and most importantly by increasing its partial pressure of CO2, hence creating a much bigger “Carbon” footprint. Albeit, with two holes through it, or them, if they happen to shoot themselves through their two left feet.

      Perhaps Peter Fitzroy could “go to the source” and find the Ace in the hole to prove me wrong?

      (He’ll need to think critically about this to “get it”).

      11

    • #
      Ted O'Brien.

      Yes but. There’s a grid.

      If prices go up in Victoria, prices will go up in NSW..

      Blackouts? We’ll soon see.

      10

  • #
    Chris Morris

    There seems to be a direct correlation between the wind generation and the “backup” gas turbines. That is always a useful graph. Helps support the one showing the more wind/ solar, the more expensive power is for the consumer.
    And the AEMO has the rule that SA has to have at least 3 GTs running to keep grid inertia. If Torren Island closes, how will that be maintained?

    170

    • #
      Rickwill

      SA has a project under way to install synchronous condensers that do not require much energy relative to inertia provided. They can also provide voltage control at the connected node.

      10

      • #
        Graeme#4

        If they had kept their coal power station, they could have used the old generators to provide spinning inertia, as they do in Huntington Beach in the U.S.

        50

      • #
        Chris Morris

        Synchronous condensers, especially if they don’t have a flywheel attached, don’t add that much inertia. A 200MVA one is equivalent to maybe 75MW GT and 40MW condensing steam turbine. And they consume significant power – maybe 3-5% of their rating, especially when transformer losses are considered.
        Old generators can do the task, but their losses are higher.
        So SA consumers will be paying even more money for a problem of their own making. Virtue signalling is getting pretty expensive.

        70

    • #
      Geoff

      More to the point what happens when it goes black and there is no load at Portland.

      Hint, this is the end point.

      110

    • #
      Just Thinkin'

      Chris,

      The gas fired Diesel Generators (12, able to produce 211 MW) are stable power supply.
      These are for use when the wind don’t blow..or when it gets too bloody hot
      in South Aus and Victoria at the same time…

      They should cop plenty of use this Summer..

      80

    • #
      Graeme#4

      In the case of Perth metro area, backup gas generators are used to provide additional power at peak times. Most of these backup generators are located along the north-south gas pipeline that runs through the Perth metro area, so the system works effectively without adding substantially to the energy costs.

      10

  • #
    JohnM

    I Appoligize up front for this off topic post.

    JoNova,
    I’ve been a fan for over a decade.

    Yesterday was the 10th anniversary ClimateGate.

    Did they learn anything — did we?

    Perhaps we all need more “Cow Bell”.

    Best Regards,
    John

    180

  • #
    Lionell Griffith

    Be thankful you are not getting the government you are paying for. Just think if government used all the money they cause to be spent efficiently and effectively. There would be nothing left alive in Australia and not a building standing to house anyone if they were still alive. As it is, some of you can hang on with your bloody finger nails. For others, it is getting more and more difficult.

    If the anti-Trump crowd gets their way, we in the US will be following soon.

    140

    • #
      Roy Hogue

      Have you seen the fool Adam Shiff has made of himself? Let them impeach, Trump will kick them clear to Pluto and back again. The House may be dishonest but in the Senate it will be for real by the book and he whole country will be watching.

      20

  • #
    Screaming Nutbag

    Yes, the government should nationalise the coal plants and then throw masses of taxpayer funds to keep these inefficient and unreliable operations going, seeing as they are unable to compete on the free market.

    250

  • #
    pattoh

    There is a growing trend for economically stressed citizens to leave high tax/low government service states in the US.

    In various states, there are a few more levels of government fiscal activity & an impossible looming insolvency in many state & municipal bond systems which will NEVER cover either infrastructure maintenance or expected retirement entitlements. .

    However here, given the madness of renewables, particularly in SA, ACT, Vic & Tas; Australia will not be far behind.
    It will probably lead to some kind of mini Real Estate boom in retiree hotspots with lots of medical infrastructure, fishing spots & cafés.

    If only the ACT was genuinely living on it’s renewable based power supply & absolutely dis-connected from the grid. There would be hulks of electric vehicles abandoned all around the streets.

    That bubble of conceited self-righteous indignation & virtue signalling would rupture under the immutable weight of reality in under a week.

    360

  • #
    Kalm Keith

    Those of us who live around Newcastle know what sort of off beat thinking and activism infest our local government.

    That activism provoked a meeting on the shores of Lake Macquarie during which locals gave examples of the devastation to lives that had occurred as a result of green activism.

    Words like malicious, heartless, obsessive and self absorbed may be a start at describing the actions of councils but that the abuse of ordinary people by green martinets can happen in Australia is absolutely mind blowing.

    The current post by Jo is Brilliant.

    It exposes the capacity of “Elected Representatives” to live their Dreams and destroy the lives of individuals, the state and the nation without being touched by the law to account for damage done.

    How did we get to this point.

    KK

    251

    • #
      Dennis

      Mid Coast Council north of Newcastle just announced that the Deputy Mayor, a former public service employee with no climate related qualification, has signed a letter to the Federal Government calling for more direct action on a climate emergency.

      80

      • #
        Dennis

        I have emailed the Deputy Mayor to explain why I am a sceptic, about the real political agenda, etc.

        And asked he to detail the climate emergency in reply.

        100

  • #
    Jonesy

    Thorcon is five years away from parking two of these stations in Indonesia…1GW of power @$72.00/MW…still twice the price as old coal but far better than new wind with infinite reliability. You could park two of these in Port Augusta, including desal water!

    70

  • #
    OriginalSteve

    Conrade Dangerous Dan would be cheering….the aim of decimation of the middle class through engineered evonomic collapse is now within reach…….

    Ah Communism….degraded, degenerate and morally filthy one day…..the same the next.

    .

    150

    • #
      PeterS

      Communism isn’t the problem here, not yet anyway. The spread of mad Greens policies throughout the West are. After all communist China is building hundreds of coal fired power stations and dozens of nuclear ones to boot. I’m certainly not appeasing to communism let alone supporting it; it’s very bad. We need to focus on the real enemy; the lunatics bordering on terrorists in the West. Of course one could argue the left in the West are a fifth column of the communists overseas. There is no evidence of that. Until one can show there is we should stick to the facts. If anything I prefer to call say the Greens fascists not communists, not that there is much difference.

      180

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        Victoriastan is effectively communist in its running dow of the middle class…

        50

      • #
        Furiously curious

        Well it’s not ‘evidence’ but really this guy in 1983 was pretty accurately predicting the state the west is in now. Harvesting the seeds sown in the 60′s. It’s a bumper crop !
        Vladimir is rolling on the floor, kicking his legs in the air, laughing hysterically.

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-cWbq1PoSw&t=1859s

        70

      • #
        PeterW

        Chinese Communists may be building a new coal-fired station every week, but that doesn’t make the anti-coal lobby in Australia non-Communist.

        Note how every proposed “solution” to “climate change” involves more regulation and control of the masses? Never once will you hear the Greens advocate the strategy that has created the standard of living that we currently enjoy…… always it is more government control.

        Why not? It only killed 100 million people in the 20th century.

        Communists aren’t anti-coal. They are anti-you-making-your-own-choices.

        110

        • #
          el gordo

          ‘Communists aren’t anti-coal. They are anti-you-making-your-own-choices.’

          China is communist in name only, they have four economic classes.

          In a material sense their society is developing a Western orientation, to help them assimilate into the new world order. Do not be afraid, Beijing is happy to leave our democracy intact.

          If the Victorians sign up to the Belt and Road they will need a coal fired power station to run the bullet trains and illuminate the new satellite cities.

          30

          • #
            GD

            If the Victorians sign up to the Belt and Road they will need a coal fired power station to run the bullet trains and illuminate the new satellite cities.

            Now if only China would order Comrade Dan to build some coal-fired power stations..

            10

        • #
          WXcycles

          Yes, and they openly advocate that Capitalism is the real crux of the ‘climate problem’, and the solution is eliminating it.

          What would that be then?

          40

  • #
    PeterW

    Those more familiar with the market than I, may like to comment….. but I’m wondering what would happen if generators were able to offer a 24/7 contract for supply at a set price for a month, quarter or year?

    Reliability has a value of its own, but as I understand the current market, being limited to a spot price denies customers the ability to lock in their supply.

    Yes, I understand that the single distribution system poses restrictions. My thought being that unless this level of supply can be offered and bid for, the market is not genuinely free and competitive.

    111

    • #
      Jonesy

      Bugga! Bloody thumb! All for this,PW. Base load coal can deliver power, on schedule, a week or a month from now at a set price. This single point of argument is lost on the consumer..five minute spot prices…smacks of induced constructed volatility and unreliability. Not the way any engineer would run a system.

      160

    • #
      Rickwill

      Some wind farms have sold their entire output at a fixed price. Many large consumers buy at a fixed price and leave the retailer to manage the risk through forward trades. Dispatchable generators have complex predispatch pricing to maximise profit.

      50

    • #
      Just Thinkin'

      PeterW,

      Welcome to a Grubbnmnt sanctioned Ponzi Scheme….

      The AEMO and the NEM…

      Foisted on us when they put in the state inter-connectors.

      These were needed to shore up power in states that were
      chasing the “ruinable” dream..

      And we are ALL suffering for their “seeming”.

      GOD, help Australia.

      90

    • #
      Peter Fitzroy

      That’s what is done now, PeterW. it is the reason spot prices are going to zero during peak generation times for renewables. All distributors lock in their average power requirement in what is a standard hedge (airlines do it with fuel, iron ore users do it to guarantee supply). When you have excess demand, you buy on the spot market (enter here the arbitrageurs), when you have excess, the price drops to less than zero, as the hedge (which guarantees production) drives everyone else out of the market. As you might guess, the cheapest hedge is with coal as they have to keep their plants running 24/7, and they can easily guarantee supply. Renewables can try, but they have to buy that guarantee from either coal or gas, making it more costly.

      219

    • #
      PeterW

      I’m a little familiar with hedging …… when selling agricultural produce it theoretically means guaranteed income levels, but as the traders always build their risks and costs into their margins, in the long term it means lower overall income to the producer.

      But that’s a different scenario.
      In this case, the traders can hedge, but not the consumers.
      It’s probably inherent in having a single supply grid, but as I read it, a consumer cannot go to a producer for a contracted secure supply at a flat price. That biases the market against those that can produce reliably at a low price, but not at the lowest price sometimes charged by unreliable.

      The alternative would be to build your own power supply and be off the grid.

      80

      • #
        Peter Fitzroy

        the distributors are the consumers. But for households it is simple. “Trigger Warning”
        Buy a battery pack, buy the CSIRO predictive software (it is really quite clever) and optionally/optimally some solar panels “end Trigger Warning”

        The software allows you to top up the battery from the cheapest source 24/7. The cleaver bit is that it scans the weather forecast and takes the appropriate action, eg drain the batteries if tomorrow is to be sunny (if you have solar) or top them up at night when power is cheap.

        222

  • #
    PeterS

    Perhaps we should go one step more and allow China to buy Victoria so they can start building coal and nuclear power stations thus proving ample power for other states.

    200

  • #
    Peter Fitzroy

    So in the two years post Hazelwood what has happened? As Jo points out lack of capacity is driving prices with even the the big battery in South Australia getting in on the act
    https://reneweconomy.com.au/cheaper-cleaner-smarter-how-wind-solar-and-batteries-are-changing-australias-grid-98324/

    Do we have an energy policy? We have an energy minister to implement one and we have had six years to develop one (counting from the time Hazelwood first mooted that it would close). Interestingly renewables are also relocatables, if their market tanked they could be packed up and moved somewhere else.

    Like sectors like banking, aged care, and health care, we are seeing signs of market failure, which is why there are calls for the Government to do something.

    Just saying

    128

  • #
    Robber

    Which industry will be next to leave Victoria? Portland Aluminium smelter consumes about 10% of Vic electricity and is living off government subsidies.
    From the AFR: “The potential closure next year of Alcoa’s loss-making Portland aluminium smelter is emerging as another risk to the operation of EnergyAustralia’s Yallourn coal generator in Victoria, which is already under threat from the state’s aggressive renewable energy and emission reduction targets”.
    But of course the Victorian government blames those unreliable coal generators.
    And in The Australian today: Blackouts risk to force states’ hand on coal.
    Can anyone spot the problem?
    After all, Portland wind farm has a capacity of 148 MW, and not far away Macarthur wind farm has a capacity of 420 MW, so between them on paper enough “cheap” electricity to power the smelter. Except that, on average, they deliver only 170 MW and on occasion close to zero. So backup reliable power must be available. Enter Mortlake gas generators 2×283 MW (one of which is down for repairs, hopefully back up in time for summer) that can provide 100% backup for the local wind farms. However the cost of electricity is therefore the combined cost of the wind farms plus the gas generators. Renewables are cheaper? Pull the other one.

    230

    • #
      Rickwill

      It is not simply the cost of wind plus backup. The backap has to be ready to go at any time due to wind variability, the wind need extra transmission lines that are rarely used at their capacity, likewise the gas connections, the wind will sometimes be curtailed so does not operate at potential. The wind does not provide the system inertia so this has to be sourced by paying high inertia plant to stay connected or build synchronous condensers.

      The gas plant will also use its market power to maximise its profit when wind is not blowing. Price can be way above cost.

      90

    • #
      glen Michel

      It seems that the States and their green ideology are at odds with Federal strategy in getting baseload reliability and lower costs to industry and the consumer. The only way around this in my view is for the commonwealth to insert itself and fund at least 3 or 4 HELE plants and somehow guarantee access. It’s only fair after all, as Morrison has gifted the the renewable sector 500 million.

      60

  • #

    Go on a war footing.

    Scrap all non-hydro renewables. Ban imported diesel for mainstream power and refuse all lithium products above the size of what’s needed for hybrid cars. Don’t just halt renewables. Scrap them. Yes, even at phenomenal cost while the reserve banks which invent money to invent “markets” connive with the permanent state to punish us.

    Defy the fops, poltroons, degenerates and deviants of “world opinion” with their fake tans and fake money and fake markets. To do this means risking failure ahead of the failure they have programmed for us. But it also means a slight chance of survival as opposed to no chance at all.

    Stop recoiling, retreating, compromising. While we do that they get to condition new generations through their refuse media.

    With what’s left of free speech ignore all conditioning from all sources. Recognise Fabianism when it shows up in a trans-humanist or trans-whatever movie, a nudge-nudge report on a weather disaster, a TV “survival” show or a solemn pronouncement by an anti-pope. Turn off the TV, walk out of the church.

    Remember, the new collectivist enemy is just the old collectivist enemy in a suit. They preach “ordo ab chao”, order out of chaos, but all they can ever achieve is chaos out of chaos. It was ever thus with the gnostic elites. Their conceit is colossal, their contempt for humanity is colossal…but their self-loathing is greater. They have to bungle, have to fail. It is just a question of how much damage they get to do.

    Stop globalism. Do tradition, family, privacy, property. Do coal.

    230

    • #
      Kalm Keith

      Hi Mosomoso, agree with your comment, but this line is puzzling: “It was ever thus with the gnostic elites”.

      KK

      20

      • #

        Their God is their anticipated selves, the means of their elevation is a mix of special knowledge (eg non-observational science), exclusive, contradictory and confusing ritual (primitivism and nature worship combined with constricted, synthetic living) and a willingness to transgress (the unborn are good targets, the just born would be better).

        In a word, Luciferians. And right now they have the running of the shop.

        90

        • #
          KinkyKeith

          That’s what I took it to mean.

          Implying that “Christianity” is better than the primitive Gnostics?

          :-) KK

          20

        • #
          OriginalSteve

          Yep pretty much.

          The “special knowledge” is always “hidden knowledge” which is the hallmarks of a cult, in this case a Satanic cabal.

          30

          • #
            Kalm Keith

            From my recent reading of some political history covering the period 500 BC to 1500 A.D. I am led to think that the sentence might have more realistic if it was :

            “It was ever thus with the Christian elites”.?

            I like the good that Christianity has brought to the world but am a bit worried about the business/management side of things.

            KK

            30

            • #
              OriginalSteve

              I’m always quick to point out that Roman Catholicism doesnt represent actual Christianity, it represents itself as a pagan cult with a christian veneer over it.

              The hierarchy and elitism created by the RC church is what gave Christainity in general a bad name, this being also compounded by the Inquisitions and poor behaviour associated with it. The problem was Constantitine ( himself a supposed Christian, but historically likely really still a sun worshipper ) made the RC church the official vehicle for both religius but also administrative matters, thus garnering priests with way too much power.

              I suspect had the Apostles been alive then they would have rapidly distanced themselves from the RC church and denounced loudly it as a pagan entity…..

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                WXcycles

                Very much agree, they eliminated the Christian church to hijack its corpse. But having known a lot of hard-core Christians I came to the conclusion they were no better. The aspirational ‘pure’ and ‘true’ can’t help but invite and advocate ever-increasing commitment to zealotry, in those perceived or even falsely-accused of being ‘luke-warm’ and thus in eternal danger of failure, which is one of the most noxious, deluding and harmful types of self-justified mental abuse there is to inflict on people. The only good thing to come out to that is you realize belief is stupid and believers are not your friend.

                And you’re cured of belief.

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              • #
                Kalm Keith

                As WX says; “And you’re cured of belief.”

                Then maybe,

                “And you’re cured by insight.” and awareness.

                I was lucky to experience a very low key branch of Christianity with a very simple message.

                In the last two years I have been drawn back to the same church and found the message transformation to be extraordinary.

                People are doing great work in the area but some individuals have a very strong Literal attachment to scripture which is limiting.

                I’ve also been to C of E and the people are great but the message is very hard line.

                Life is complex.

                KK

                KK

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    • #
      GD

      Defy the fops, poltroons, degenerates and deviants of “world opinion” with their fake tans and fake money and fake markets.

      “poltroons” What a great word. I haven’t heard that for a long time. Good work!

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    Rickwill

    Off topic
    Israel Folau has a new theory on the cause of wildfires.
    It is God‘s wrath due to broad acceptance of homosexuals.

    People promoting the greenhouse gas fairy tale condemn Folau`s belief as silly. I wonder what other religions believe is the cause of the fires?

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  • #
    Furiously curious

    How is it wind farms can say, yes, yes, yes, we can provide power more cheaply than anything else, and when they put it on the market it gets a fixed price? And in the middle of the day, if prices go negative, customers are paid to take the power, but the big renewable farms will still be paid their fixed price. I wonder who’s paying for that?

    60

    • #
      Rickwill

      Google
      AEMC spot and contract markets

      They provide considerable detail on the trading options.

      10

      • #
        Furiously curious

        OK, checked that out, and came up with this :-

        “Power Purchase Agreements: a broken link
        The other main type of contract currently in the market is a Power Purchase Agreement.

        A PPA is a long term agreement between a generator and a purchaser (a retailer or a consumer) for the sale and supply of energy. Wind and solar farms often use PPAs. Typically this involves the wind or solar farm selling renewable energy certificates to the purchaser at a fixed price.

        Unlike financial derivative contracts, PPAs reward the seller for generating as much electricity as possible at any time. There is no incentive for the seller to generate more or less electricity when the power system needs it – that is, when spot prices are high or low.

        In this way, PPAs break the link between financial incentives and the physical needs of the system.”

        It looks like a handy thing to have. What does that actually mean to the retailers? They just have to work out their prices and hope their sums are right, and the ups and downs are covered? Thank god for computers.

        20

  • #
    Rupert Ashford

    Wait for the usual suspects to trot out their “renewable energy is getting cheaper and cheaper and is now the cheapest it’s ever been”. Never seen power prices drop with a transition to renewables. It’s easy to tell the people power prices are dropping if they drop from $100/kwh to 96. It remains BS.

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  • #
    TdeF

    I suppose the next target of the Greens will be the farmers. It’s easy. Just make life too expensive on the land, now by jacking up the diesel costs massively. Then all the forests will be saved and the cows and horses and pigs and chickens can be set free to roam.

    There is something surreal about the idea that we can live in a world without manufacturers or electricity or farmers or fences or borders or the police or even a defence force. A non violent paradise where everyone can dance and sing and import their food and goods from overseas and sell all the farming to China.

    Luckily Victoria does not have a lot of miners. Nasty bunch. We are keeping our gas and oil and coal and gold in the ground where it belongs and making the high country off limits so it burns as nature intended.

    No unemployment as everyone works for the government and the government just taxes us all more to pay the wages. Free houses. Free wages. Dan’s wonderland in Victoria.

    It goes to show you do not have to be clever to get to the top if you are in the Labor party.

    Dan Andrews who never had a job outside politics and joined primary school teachers Joan Kirner and Steve Bracks and teacher John Brumby. Steve taught swimming to children. John Brumby did have an economics degree like Jay Weatherill in South Australia who managed to cripple the state completely by blowing up power stations and paying massive subsidies to pretend to run smelters. He even paid $100Million for a battery. John Brumby paid $800million for a pipeline which was never used. And who knows how much his desalination plant will cost in the end, never used. $20Billion?

    Just like Alcoa in Victoria where it has not made sense to make aluminum for the last decade and each worker is subsidized $80K a year by more secret payments.

    Australia, where politicians shut down everything to please the Green voters. It will soon be a park. You can start frolicing now. You may as well. Or join the Greens and get a public service job in the council where the average salary is twice the Australian average and no one does any work. They refuse to recognize Australia day but take the day off anyway. Great bunch.

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    • #
      PeterW

      Utopians are so certain that they are going to bring in paradise on earth, that it is worth paying any price……. as long as other people do the paying.

      That is why utopians in government killed 100 million of their own people. Omelette, eggs….. it’s how they do the maths.

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    • #
      beowulf

      The good news is that NSW farmers are now safer than the rest. They now have “right to farm” legislation protecting them from animal-lib froot-loops, with possibly more to come.

      “Aussie Farms” (the radical farm-invasion animal-lib group) had declared that any place with an animal behind a fence was committing animal cruelty. They even considered zoos and horse riding schools as places of animal cruelty. An interactive map of Oz with locations of all “installations” they deemed cruel was on display for some months (now deleted), accompanied by sat photos and on-the-ground photos obtained illegally by trespass. Photos included empty paddocks etc. This was to coordinate farm invasion activities.

      Trespassers on farms that have biosecurity plans will be hit with $1000 on-the-spot fines, with the potential for fines of up to $220,000 under new trespass laws in NSW. Corporations could also face fines of $440,000 for inciting trespass on farms such as those conducted earlier this year. This is designed to specifically target the radical groups where there are coordinated attacks.

      And yesterday the Australian Charities and Not-for-profits Commission stripped “Aussie Farms” of its charity status amid outrage and teeth-gnashing from the unwashed.
      https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/australian-charities-and-not-for-profits-commission-strips-aussie-farms-of-charity-status/ar-BBWWbcu?ocid=spartandhp

      In a further development, the mother of the group’s leader was also stood down from her role at DFAT pending an external investigation into her potential links to activist websites.

      It’s a good start.

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      Another Ian

      TdeF

      “and the cows and horses and pigs and chickens can be set free to roam.”

      Around the 1980′s there was finally recognition of the problem of the total grazing pressure of feral (now rangeland) goats and this resulted in a conference with representatives from Australia wide.

      There was also a representative from New Zealand who spoke on their experience with total eradication on some of the off-shore islands. The take-home message was that eradicating the last 1% would take about as long and cost as much as eradicating the previous 99%.

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    robert rosicka

    I’m still amazed that the news of renewables powered 50% of the AEMO grid never had more coverage in the MSM .
    It’s still occasionally popping up on Facebook but they always leave out the bit that exposes the absurdity of the claim and that was it was for about a ten minute period over a few days .
    All the billions wasted so far on renewables and all they can manage is half the grid over a few days for ten minutes at half the supply , this is embarrassing.
    Made even worse by the perfect conditions for solar and wind of very windy and sunny but also cool temperatures, something that doesn’t happen year in year out .

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    • #
      OriginalSteve

      I thik all the leftist fools need to say they accept the outcome, then shut off all coal and let australia run on raw Fabianism dressed up as renewables.

      The Lefties woul be tarred and feathered and run out of town that quick that thier heads woukd spin…although they would need police protection…and a lot of it.

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    • #
      Chad

      I’m still amazed that the news of renewables powered 50% of the AEMO grid never had more coverage in the MSM

      Just as well, because it didnt happen, even for a few min.
      As i pointed out at the time, the Grid demand at the claimed time (11:50 , 15/11/2019 ?) was 19 GW, with wind, solar and hydro, providing approx 6.0 GW max. (About 30%)
      The “RE cheer team” tried to add in the Roof top solar generation estimate to the “Grid Demand” in order to suggest a 50% figure….
      …but RT solar is not grid demand, it is self generation..(equivalent to reduced demand),..and it never gets near the “Grid”

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  • #
    thingadonta

    All energy is equal, but some energy is more equal than others.

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  • #

    Lily D’Ambrosio continues to prove she is incompetent and has no idea at all. AEMO cannot build plants either…

    Where are the engineers of Victoria here? As an engineer myself the Victorian govts wild rush into renewables is an engineering disaster. As others here have pointed out renewables are intermittent and UNRELIABLE. You cannot run the grid on them – they are unsuitable for both baseload and peaking power.

    The VIC govt has no plans at all for storage and the bill would be astronomical to install it. And there will still be significant periods in the year when there is no supply.

    Instead they are relying on other states, in the end QLD, to supply if they can’t. This will drag them down when VICs grid collapses, which it will at some point in the future under this lack of leadership.

    Please can we have some technically competent people to run Victoria, and Australia for that matter.

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    • #
      wal1957

      Instead they are relying on other states, in the end QLD, to supply if they can’t. This will drag them down when VICs grid collapses, which it will at some point in the future under this lack of leadership.

      As stated, this will produce more demand on the Qld power stations and ultimately higher prices for QLDers as well. But don’t worry about that. We also have a Liebor govt up here that is smitten with the RE bug. I just wonder though, when we are in a similar position as SA and VIC…who the hell are we going to be able to call on to provide backup power?

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    • #
      TdeF

      They are also not something else very important. Not commandable.

      It doesn’t matter how many horsepower you have in your electric car if the battery is flat or how many megawatts a windmill can produce if there is no wind or how many a solar farm can produce if it’s night.

      What matters is whether the lift works when you are in it, whether the lights are on in the operating theatre and at the intersection and whether the airconditioners work in the old peoples home on a hot day. And for manufacturers as at Alcoa, whether the power ever goes off completely, as it did, freezing the pots solid. I doubt it will ever recover because fundamentally, it cannot make money because the price of electricity exceeds the price of aluminium, which is 90% electricity in cost.

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      • #
        TdeF

        As an aside on the economics of Alcoa, the best smelters use 13kwhr to produce 1kg or electricity and the average is 15kwhr/kg.
        So at 4c a kw/hr to Alcoa in Portland, that’s 52c for 1kg of aluminum for electricity alone. No overheads or other costs of processing or capital. Add 6c for the RET and it’s 10c for a kg. The domestic Australian prices is $1 per kg, so there is no point making aluminum in Victoria as there is no profit at all. Also Portland is 500-600km from Yallourn and the losses used to be 50%. It was always pork barreling even by the Bolte government. But jobs mean votes and who cares?

        So making aluminum at Portland is entirely fake.

        Perhaps Alcoa are not paying the windmill carbon tax? Perhaps Alcoa, the Federal Government and the Victoria government met in New York and agreed to keep the jobs and make Aluminum at a loss? Perhaps they managed to fix a few pots and just pretend? It would be cheaper for everyone.

        Similarly with Whyalla with steel and Port Pirie with lead. Hundreds of millions of dollars a year to pretend to manufacture, so the sheer tragedy of Labor government taxes on electricity is hidden. Labor used to mean jobs. Not with Climate Change. Not jobs in manufacturing or trucking or farming or electricity production or smelting. Teaching and nursing and Councils and Canberra. That’s why the CFMEU are being pushed out, not because they are so nasty.

        There is every expectation that a lot of the heavy manufacturing which remains in Victoria and South Australia is completely fake, thanks to the Greens. Alcoa will soon announce the closure of all manufacturing in Australia. Because it doesn’t make sense and other governments have cheap electricity and voters too. In China the smelters are next to the power stations, of course, not 600km away.

        The only plastics recycler in South Australia was forced to close and fire 35 people because they could not afford the electricity. That doesn’t matter because the councils just sell it on to people who promise sincerly to dispose of the plastic humanely. On the beaches of the Pacific in third world countries. Every cares so much, until they pass it on in a caring way. What you do not know can’t hurt you.

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        • #
          TdeF

          Sorry, 15c US means $A22c x 4c per kwhr means $A0.88 for 1kg of aluminum which sells for $1c. That was before the RET. It’s now probably $3.00 to make a product worth $1. Plus overheads, capital investment, wages, leases. I doubt making Aluminum (American spelling) has made economic sense for a decade and then the power went out. It’s all fake.

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        • #
          David Maddison

          TdeF the Portland smelter was given massive subsidies by Turnbull and Andrews. $240 million to save 2000 jobs over 4 years or $30,000 per job per year:

          https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2017-01-20/alcoa-portland-announcement-expected-from-state-federal-govts/8196602

          Despite this,it might still close. It’s basically no longer worth doing business in Australia.

          https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/this-thing-is-in-trouble-future-of-alcoa-s-energy-hungry-smelter-looks-bleak-20191017-p531nr.html

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          • #

            ‘Will the last one leaving the building please switch off the lights?’ _ ‘Oops, no need!’

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          • #
            TdeF

            It will close. Soon.

            I wonder if they are really making aluminum at all? Like many industries they are living on subsidies and cannot see any other future because it makes no commercial sense to make aluminum or steel or lead or any metals in Australia.

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            • #
              David Maddison

              It’s a disgrace that given that Australia is one of the most energy rich and minerals rich countries in the world that it’s not economically viable to manufacture metals here. That’s basically the definition of a Third World country.

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              • #
                Kalm Keith

                Kurri Smelter: gone a victim of politics.

                Tomago Aluminium, hanging by a thread. Another victim of political electricity.

                Local shops and offices shutting, unsure of the main reason but electricity prices are way up there.

                When you can import Dutch Croissants in the cargo hold of a 747 to sell locally that must surely say something highly pertinent about Australia’s costs of production.

                That’s ridiculous that pastries are cheaper from Europe.

                KK

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              • #
                Chad

                Manufacturing costs for Aluminium in Au have been un-competitive for years.
                12 yrs ago i was involved in sourcing Al coil stock which we had historically taken from Alcoa (Point Henry & Yenora mills) but even then it was very obvious we could import cheaper from Japan, Korea, even the US. Eventually the economics of the volumes being used (250k Tns) made it inevitable that we had to import .
                sounds crazy , doesnt it ? We were within a few kms of the Alcoa rolling mill ,holding minimal consignment stock, but it was cheaper..even after extra packaging, specialist transport, increased stock holding facilities etc etc …to import from Japan !
                We even ended up shipping our Al waste in containers to Korea, rather than the few kms back to Alcoa’s Sydney recycling plant !
                So yes, something very sick with australian manufacturing, not just energy costs

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  • #
    nb

    Ahh, socialism. You get to save the world and you don’t even have to work!

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  • #
    yarpos

    Test ran the generator today. Toying with tbe idea of a bigger one as it seems we may become more dependent on it, and selling the used one should be no problem.

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    • #

      Why don’t you get the bigger one and sell the power to the grid. Just kidding but suggest your price might be competitive with the ridiculous options being floated in VIC.

      A friend whose husband works in the farming sector says that many farmers are now looking generate their own power as they can do so cheaper than buying off the grid…

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  • #
    William

    They are talking about a new interconnector between NSW and South Australia – the deal is that we in NSW get to buy intermittent and expensive green energy from SA, and they get to buy reliable coal energy from NSW. The issue is that much of any excess power SA generates is done so when NSW is unlikely to need it, and they will want our electricity when we need it most (higher spot prices). Somehow green loons in both governments think that electricity prices for both states will go down.

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    • #
      RicDre

      Could they make it a one-way interconnect to NSW? I recently read that SA has an excess of Green energy and wouldn’t need any of that dirty NSW energy in return.

      30

    • #
      yarpos

      Seems the same as VIC-SA have been doing for some time. Worked well pre wind, now you often see it throttled back when Sa has to much wind and its not required.

      30

  • #
    OriginalSteve

    Looks like the Warmists are panicking – pulling out every tiny “crisis” thay can find…..

    Are people now wising up to the CO2 nonsense?

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2019-11-19/nitrous-oxide-greenhouse-gas-increasing/11714240

    “Emissions of nitrous oxide — a greenhouse gas 300 times more potent than carbon dioxide — are going up faster than we thought.

    “It’s countries in east Asia and South America that are making the biggest contribution to the increasing emissions, according to a study published today in the journal Nature Climate Change.

    “Natural sources of nitrous oxide include our oceans and rainforests, but it’s the human sources that are of most cause for concern — specifically agriculture, including nitrogen fertiliser use and livestock manure.
    We’ve known for decades that nitrous oxide emissions are increasing, but since 2009 there has been a “substantial increase” in these emissions, said Pep Canadell, executive director of the Global Carbon project and an author of the new research.

    “Most countries report their nitrous oxide emissions using the methodology of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This approach assumes a linear relationship between the amount of nitrogen fertiliser used and the nitrous oxide emissions that come out at the other end, said Dr Canadell, who is also a chief research scientist at the CSIRO.

    “”Using atmospheric data for the first time, we show that the [linear] relationship is not true when there are regions around the world that over-fertilise,” he said.

    “”So there’s this threshold [of fertiliser use], and past that amount — which is well above and beyond what plants need — we find an exponential growth in nitrous oxide emissions.”

    “Using atmospheric data and nitrous oxide concentrations from over 50 stations around the world, the scientists could model what emissions were expected from different regions.

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    Dennis

    The Australian is reporting tougher energy and reliability standards to be imposed via the Federal Government to force State Governments to cooperate on coal and gas fired generator construction planning approvals.

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    • #
      Kalm Keith

      I hope this isn’t something along the line of the ” big stick” publicity stunt.

      ScoMo lost me when he continued the present market structure for electricity and then pretended to fix it with the Big Stick.

      The energy market cover for blatant skimming akin to what goes on with our share “market” was and is an insult.

      The proposal to fix it with the Big Stick was just laughing in our faces.

      In the meantime there’s lots of government issue smoke outside today.

      People who complained about the mild two day smoke problem of pre-emptive burns will now complain to their MsP that having smoke of such intensity for weeks at a time is baaaad and that they want the old system back. Won’t they???

      Or will they just gloat and say: “we told you global warming is real!”.

      Or maybe we haven’t closed down enough farming and industry.

      KK

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      • #
        Dennis

        Keith the federal government responsibilities and state government responsibilities along with local government are by Constitution very different and without state/local cooperation for planning approval etc., power stations, dams, whatever cannot be actioned.

        30

        • #
          Dennis

          The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) was established to manage the National Electricity Market (NEM) and gas markets from 1 July 2009.

          Created by the Council of Australian Governments (COAG) and developed under the guidance of the Ministerial Council on Energy (now the Standing Council on Energy and Resources), AEMO strengthened the national character of energy market governance by drawing together under the one operational framework responsibility for electricity and gas market functions, NEM system operations, management of Victoria’s gas transmission network, and national transmission planning.
          On 1 July 2014, AEMO turned five. To commemorate the milestone, it assembled this animated timeline to reflect on AEMO’s evolution and maturity.
          In 2015, AEMO took responsibility as the wholesale and retail market operator in Western Australia, integrating the functions of the Independent Market Operator (IMO), which had been created in 2004. Also in 2015, AEMO took responsibility for the WA Gas Bulletin Board and Gas Statement of Opportunities, which had been established for the Western Australian gas market through the IMO in 2013.
          On 1 July 2016, the power system operations function also moved from Western Power to AEMO, establishing AEMO as the independent power system operator for Western Australia.

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  • #
    pat

    Comrades, the unions are on board in Victoria & elsewhere. offshore wind is the answer. for the right price, union workers can buid it. coal going to crash & burn. ETU: this Victorian Govt is the best Govt they’ve worked with. have won battles over jobs (being done by 170 French backpackers) on the solar farms around Mildura. all over the world, pension funds and workers’ money are pouring in for RE. go to Europe & Germany – their wind farms are second to none.

    AUDIO: 27min40sec: 13 Nov: 3CR Community Radio: Putting ‘Justice’ in ‘Just Transition’
    The issue of jobs and climate change is the topic of a new report released jointly by the AMWU the ETU the Gippsland Trades and Labour Council, the MUA and the Victorian Trades Hall Council…We were there.
    https://www.3cr.org.au/sticktogether/episode-201911130830/putting-justice-just-transition

    3CR features mainly talk-based programs with political (particularly trade unions) and environmental themes, as well as some music and community language-based programs. Today the station hosts over 130 programs presented by over 400 volunteers. – Wikipedia

    Maritime Union of Australia: Building Offshore Wind in Australia
    The MUA is campaigning to support the development of offshore wind in Australia.
    In November, the MUA worked with the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union, the Electrical Trades Union, the Gippsland Trades and Labour Council and the Victorian Trades Hall Council to launch a report and campaign outlining how we can make the Australia’s first offshore wind farm, the Star of the South project off Victoria, the best possible example of a just transition…

    The MUA advocates for the development of a stand-alone Offshore Renewables Act to facilitate the development of offshore renewable energy in Commonwealth waters, planned and regulated as part of the electricity system that these projects will be a part of…
    A 2009 study showed that offshore wind would be viable in many parts of Australia…

    In NSW the MUA is advocating for Newcastle to become a hub for the manufacture and construction of offshore wind to power the NSW electricity grid…
    Read more about the MUA’s work on Just transition and the climate crisis here (LINK).
    https://www.mua.org.au/building-offshore-wind-australia

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    • #
      Kalm Keith

      “The MUA is campaigning to support the development of offshore wind in Australia.”

      Can someone help me with this?

      What’s 5% of AUD $14,000,000,000.

      And does anyone know how many are on the mua executive team?

      KK

      30

  • #
    David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

    But everything’s great really .
    Just ask Alan Kohler.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-19/good-economic-news-so-why-is-the-outlook-so-gloomy-kohler/11681076

    He’s surprised people aren’t spending, but seems to have not realised some of them are having difficulty paying their electricity bills. And he appears to have not noticed that NSW has had a couple of aluminium refineries closed. Giving job losses.
    But he’s an economist, people and factories probably don’t matter.
    And certainly no mention of power prices in this article.
    Cheers
    Dave B

    40

  • #
    Zane

    Victoria needs to kick Comrade Dan and his politburo out.

    30

    • #
      Serp

      They had their chance at the election nigh on twelve months ago and now Dan’s corrupt regime is sitting pretty for another three years of the same mismanagement after which he’s banking on the Stockholm Syndrome returning Labor for a third term and so on ad infinitum.

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  • #
    pat

    AUDIO: 54min07sec: 18 Nov: ABC Big Ideas: Can better science communication help counter pseudo-science?
    Presenter/moderator: Paul Barclay
    The internet is awash with pseudo-science, often spread by people with little, or no, knowledge of science. Can improved science communication help to debunk bogus science?
    Recorded at the Shine Dome in Canberra on October 25, 2019
    Guests:
    Professor Joan Leach – Director, Australian National Centre for the Public Awareness of Science, ANU
    ***Maja Horst – Professor of media, cognition and communication, University of Copenhagen
    Darren Saunders – cancer biologist; Associate Professor, School of Medical Sciences, UNSW
    Further information (LINKS):
    Australian Science Communicators
    Australian National Centre for the Public Awareness of Science
    https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/bigideas/enhancing-public-awareness-and-knowledge-of-science/11694100

    audio begins with Professor Joan Leach, ANU: “I absolutely don’t believe in climate denial…like climate knowledge denial. I don’t think it’s about knowledge. it’s about politics…and money. and then maybe also a little bit about the difficulty of the challenges we face, because we’ve gotta change. I mean we all have to change. (ABC’s Paul Barclay in background “yes”). I just don’t think it’s about facts or knowledge anymore. it’ about politics. it’s not about science now. are we good political communicators? and do we want to enter that arena? and do we have the skills to enter that arena? (Paul Barclay – and what are the consequences if you don’t enter that arena?). Prof Leach: exactly. so I think those are the big questions. I don’t think it’s about denialism at all. I don’t think it’s really much about even the science any more. it’s about politics.

    27min28sec: Barclay behaves as if CAGW hasn’t been mentioned up to now – never mind the intro, or the other couple of times he’s inserted the topic:

    paraphrasing:

    ***poor Maja Horst had to fly to Australia. she has to – it’s her job. has an e-bike back home. she votes for the right political parties (Barclay laughs). totally agrees with Prof Leach – we shouldn’t discuss the science. ABC’s Barclay meets a lot of people who are in their Sixties or onwards, who find it difficult to come to terms with climate change as a thing. they are not scientifically trained at all, but nor do they really have a vested interest in disbelieving. it’s just a big thing from left field that feels like an existential threat to them. how do you go about engaging them in a conversation?

    more to come.

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    • #
      pat

      Big Ideas guest, Darren Saunders:

      TWEET Dr. Darren Saunders
      Scientist says rightwing thinktank @TheIPA misrepresented her Great Barrier Reef study.
      What a clown show.
      18 Nov 2019
      ***LINK GUARDIAN
      https://twitter.com/whereisdaz/status/1196538261251870720

      ***19 Nov: Guardian: Scientist says rightwing thinktank misrepresented her Great Barrier Reef study
      Tara Clark says the central claim of the Institute of Public Affairs’ YouTube film attacking her coral report is wrong
      by Graham Readfearn
      The IPA says its YouTube film, Beige Reef, is a “must watch” because it shows healthy Acropora corals living at Stone Island, near Bowen. This, the film claims, is in a place where a study published in 2016 claimed all those corals had died.
      But Dr Tara Clark, of the University of Wollongong, says the film’s central claim is wrong because her 2016 study did not make any such statement and the IPA’s film had focused on a different location.
      Clark told Guardian Australia: “Our work has clearly been misrepresented.”

      The IPA, which has been heavily funded by the mining magnate Gina Rinehart, is known for promoting fringe views on human-caused climate change…
      Marohasy’s filming had taken place over subtidal reefs rather than over the reef flats that were the focus of her study, Clark said…READ ALL
      https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/nov/19/scientist-says-rightwing-thinktank-misrepresented-her-great-barrier-reef-study

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        pat

        Big Ideas guest, Prof Joan Leach:

        21 Jun 2017: The Conversation: Science journalism is in Australia’s interest, but needs support to thrive
        by Joan Leach, Professor, Australian National University
        Disclosure statement: Joan Leach receives funding from the ARC
        (This article was co-authored with Kylie Walker, Chief Executive Officer of Science and Technology Australia, and Visiting Fellow at the Australian National Centre for the Public Awareness of Science, Australian National University)
        Specialist science journalists are vital in our society in a few key ways. These include as public disseminators of sound science that can lead to policy, as identifiers of flawed journalism and “dodgy” (even life-threatening) science, and as gatekeepers between public relations departments in research institutions and the general media…
        And yet the number of specialist science reporters in Australia is in serious decline…

        It seems the ABC is the only mainstream media outlet with a science unit. Here, specialists Anna Salleh and Jake Sturmer along with experienced science journalists, communicators and broadcasters (Robyn Williams, Natasha Mitchell, Joel Werner, Bernie Hobbs, Ruben Meerman and Dr Karl amongst others) present regular science content on various platforms…
        http://theconversation.com/science-journalism-is-in-australias-interest-but-needs-support-to-thrive-79106

        Nov 2008: ABC: Scientific freedom charters questioned
        by Anna Salleh
        The charter for CSIRO is welcomed by the organisation’s staff association but Dr Joan Leach, who leads the science communication program at the University of Queensland, says she is sceptical the charters will have a real impact.
        “I somewhat question their spirit in the sense of encouraging public debate – I’m not sure they’re designed to have that effect.”…

        Fact or interpretation?
        Leach is also concerned about the charter’s requirement for public debate to be based on “factually based discussion of scientific issues” founded on peer review.
        She says while discussion should be evidence-based, in many cases “the facts aren’t in yet” and experts must use their knowledge to extrapolate, judge and interpret, as in the case of climate change.
        “There’s a range of interpretations and models about the impacts [of climate change], what we should do next and what happens if we do certain things next,” she says.
        “We’re arguing about interpretation, not necessarily about fact.”

        Leach says the charter’s attempt to distinguish between scientists speaking as an individual and as an employee of CSIRO, makes it even harder for scientists to know when and how they can comment on policy-related science.
        She says it is difficult to separate individuals from their institution since experts are defined by their affiliation to institutions.
        “I think it could put individuals in very strange situations.”…
        https://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2008/11/21/2426500.htm

        TWEET: ANU Media
        Climate knowledge denial is about politics and money, says #ANUExpert @JoanLeachCPAS speaking to @ABCbigideas about fake science. #Climate #sciencecommunication @ANU_CPAS @PaulBarclay LISTEN LINK ABC
        11 Nov 2019
        https://twitter.com/ANUmedia/status/1194133228619272192

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      OriginalSteve

      Same argument of giving more money to ” education”…nothing seems to improve except the quality of brainwashing….

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  • #
    Serp

    While we continue to be governed by a parliament too paralysed by its collective scientific ignorance to get independent advice before seeing fit to kowtow to the Kyoto fantasy and legislate the RET and then follow that up with ratification of the Paris accords Australia’s future can only be a slow path to ruin; well, maybe not so slow since I read last week that our glorious fiscal policy makers are considering implementing quantitative easing to kickstart the recalcitrant inflation rate –at least that’ll take climate crises off the front page.

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    • #
      Kalm Keith

      There’s no lack of scientific or economic awareness available to government if they want it.

      The scheme is that they don’t want to change anything that will interrupt the skim to them and the renewie cash flow to the two main countries harvesting our wealth.

      The libls demonstrated that when they were given S.A. to fix.

      Beris Gladagyklikin is too busy demolishing stadiums so that someone’s friends can get some super profit from the rebuild.

      Ah politics: ugly one day, abusive and thieving the next.

      KK

      20

      • #
        WXcycles

        … maybe not so slow since I read last week that our glorious fiscal policy makers are considering implementing quantitative easing to kickstart the recalcitrant inflation rate …

        Yeah, they’re onto a sure-fire winner there, who doesn’t want stuff to become deliberately more expensive?

        30

        • #
          Kalm Keith

          It’s a crap solution I agree.

          Instead of building a strong working country they’re removing our capacity to function on the world stage except as an exporter of raw materials.

          But hell, devaluation of our currency is so easy and hardly noticeable unless you travel overseas and find your purchasing power cut by 10%.

          Quantitative easing sounds so cool, and our wages can go up by 3% p.a. and tax receipts will increase thus allowing for a larger public service in Kanberra.

          KK

          20

  • #
    Travis T. Jones

    One could be forgiven for thinking that a sustainably renewed, stable, non-changing climate would be perfect for manufacturing.

    20

  • #
    pat

    some of the ABC staff just woke up!

    18 Nov: ABC: Queensland volunteer firefighters, landholders call for reduction in red tape to tackle bushfires on frontline
    ABC Wide Bay By Sarah Jane Bell, Megan Hughes and staff
    Many working on firegrounds throughout the state have said the length of time it now takes for backburning to be approved leaves firefighters and properties vulnerable to the fast-moving flames.
    Mango farmer Robert Sikes, who lives at Bungundarra near Yeppoon, suffered hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of damage to his property in the recent bushfires that destroyed about 12,000 hectares.

    “There was a prohibition on backburning, which rendered our local fire brigades ineffective and so they were not able to backburn,” Mr Sikes said, a 30-year resident of the region.
    “I don’t know when it was — it must have been a long time ago — but there must have been a man a lot smarter than me that said, ‘you fight fire with fire.’”…

    Mr Sikes, who has previously been involved with the fire brigade, said those with firsthand experience should have been given the responsibility to make fire management decisions on the ground…
    Without back-burning fires ‘impossible to control’…
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-18/volunteer-firefighters-call-for-reduction-in-red-tape/11713700

    14 Nov: ABC: Queensland bushfire evacuee describes burning mountain ‘pumping out smoke like a volcano’ as police charge alleged arsonist
    By Rebeka Powell, staff
    Police say a 16-year-old boy has been charged with starting a Central Queensland bushfire that has destroyed 14 homes, as firefighters concentrate on strengthening containment lines and extinguishing existing fires before the weather deteriorates over the weekend.
    The charge relates to the Cobraball fire, west of Yeppoon, said state disaster coordinator and Deputy Police Commissioner Steve Gollschewski…

    Fire crews have begun their investigation to determine the cause of the Noosa North Shore blaze…
    Sunshine Coast rural fire area director Andrew Allan said he could already conclude the fires were man-made and deliberate.
    He said they had already pinpointed the point of origin — the side of a road in a fairly secluded area…
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-14/queensland-bushfires-rage-for-sixth-consecutive-day-wind-change/11696858

    Expert warns against vilifying accused Peregian arsonists
    Sunshine Coast Daily – 12 Sept 2019
    Publicly vilifying two teenagers accused of allegedly starting the Peregian bushfire could retraumatise them into becoming legitimate firebugs…

    14 Nov: Daily Mail: Teenage boy, 16, accused of starting a huge bushfire that destroyed 36 buildings in Queensland is arrested over ‘pathetic arson attack’
    •At least 14 homes were also burnt to the ground in the deliberately-lit fire
    •He hasn’t charged but will be dealt with under the state’s Youth Justice Act
    by Alana Mazzoni & AAP
    At least 14 homes were also burnt to the ground in the deliberately-lit fire which started at Cobraball (NEAR YEPPOON) at about 1.30pm on Saturday.
    It then ravaged the surrounding areas of Bungundarra, Adelaide Park, Maryville and Lake Mary…

    Queensland child arsonists get off scot-free
    Courier Mail – 13 hours ago
    ACCUSED TEEN ARSONISTS’ CASE TO BE HEARD IN SECRET. A COURT ruling barring media from a hearing involving two teens accused of lighting a fire that ripped through a Sunshine Coast suburb has been slammed as a step toward secret justice…
    Police allege the teens, aged 14 and 15, deliberately lit a fire that destroyed or damaged homes and tore through bushland at Peregian Beach, forcing hundreds of locals to evacuate…

    15 Nov: SBS: AAP: Juvenile accused of lighting devastating bushfire in central Queensland
    A minor has been accused of starting a bushfire that razed 14 homes in central Queensland.
    Police say the juvenile has not been charged with arson, but will be dealt with under the state’s Youth Justice Act…

    Little Lucifers: 136 juvenile firebugs charged in 2 years
    Courier Mail – 12 hours ago
    The Courier -Mail can also reveal only 18 of those offenders were convicted…

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    • #
      Another Ian

      Pat

      In Qld even if you have a fire permit from your local warden you have to ring Fire Com in Brisbane for final approval. And realise your local warden’s judgement includes that if he/she stuffs up he/she will be on the fire crew.

      Urban outlook “OOOh a fire! Put it out before it burns something”.

      Rural permit holder “We want to burn something BEFORE we put it out”

      40

  • #

    [...] Nova reports on some more alarming developments in The People’s Republic of Victoria. Manufacturers are drawing up contingency plans to shift [...]

    40

  • #
    Another Ian

    “What’s green, employs ten times as many people as the “fossil fuel industry” and fake?”

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/11/18/whats-green-fake-and-employs-ten-times-as-many-people-as-the-fossil-fuel-industry/

    ““The stupid, it burns”

    Crowing about an “economy” being larger than an “industry” is as stupid as crowing about a century being longer than a day. “

    40

  • #
    robert rosicka

    Victoriastan will be saved from further power problems thanks to the extension cord into south Australia and the news the big battery is getting bigger .

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-19/sa-big-battery-set-to-get-even-bigger/11716784

    30

  • #
    pat

    AUDIO: 13min29sec: 19 Nov: 2GB: Alan Jones: ‘A national scandal’: Queensland dam emptied into the sea
    The Paradise Dam near Bundaberg opened in 2006 at a cost of $200 million, but a 2016 safety review found it was riddled with design and construction faults.
    Now, during the worst drought in living memory, 105,000 megalitres of dam water have been released into the sea so that repairs can be carried out on the dam wall.
    The Palaszczuk government is refusing to release any of the safety and engineering reports, meaning the public know nothing about the cause of the damage and the cost of repairs.

    Local MP Stephen Bennett tells Alan Jones the government has a lot to answer for.
    “This transparency issue is the worst I’ve ever seen in our history.
    “Can you believe that they would try and cover up the issues around Paradise Dam, the worst infrastructure failure in probably Australia’s history?”
    https://www.2gb.com/a-national-scandal-queensland-dam-emptied-into-the-sea/

    behind paywall:

    A solution for defective dam: store less water
    The Australian – 17 Nov 2019
    A permanent reduction in water storage capacity is among repair plans for Queensland’s defective Paradise Dam despite it driving a massive agricultural investment boom in the surrounding region…

    50

  • #
    Ruairi

    A coal-powered old dynamo,
    Keeps industrial plants on the go,
    With electrical power,
    That can run any hour,
    In a constant reliable flow.

    100

  • #
    Dave

    Off Topic!
    But The Guardian published an anti- Jennifer Marohasy article!

    The good Dr. has posted a reply!

    Amazing a Scientist like Tara Clark uses the Guardian to answer criticism!

    50

  • #
    pat

    I’ve heard two phone-in programs on ABC Brisbane radio pushing the OK Boomer meme. pure rubbish, but did laugh at one listener whose text was read. it said, in effect, given your audience is basically all baby boomers, it would be a bit one-sided. seems it got another run on the Q&A/Australia Talks rubbish last nite:

    19 Nov: SMH: Q&A amounted to a TV version of the meme ‘OK Boomer’
    By Neil McMahon
    Jones: “Now, Dylan (Storer), if you were prime minister! We’re leaping ahead a little bit but that’s OK. I’m sure you’ve got ideas on these subjects.”
    Did he what. Beginning with: “Yeah, climate change is an existential threat to humanity. And civilisation.”
    He went on: “It is not political opinion to say that climate change hasn’t contributed to these horrific bushfires … this isn’t a political idea that has come out of nowhere. This is the Bureau of Meteorology. This is our publicly funded institutions. Who else are we supposed to believe?

    “So, climate change is an existential threat … it is a huge issue. And I think we need to actually have a government that first acknowledges it, that doesn’t have senators in the back thinking that the bureau is tampering with temperature data. It’s ridiculous. And we need a revolution, in my opinion – to completely overhaul our energy generation system.”
    And so on: “We’ve got so many opportunities here but narrow minded people in Canberra and from particular sections of the media and some commentators, it really restricts what we can see. It’s become really ideological where it shouldn’t be, because it’s life on earth.”

    Tony Jones tried to get in with a question, but even he knew he wasn’t fast enough: the studio erupted in applause at this outbreak of youthful common sense. If Storer is any example, the kids are all right.
    https://www.smh.com.au/culture/tv-and-radio/q-and-a-amounted-to-a-tv-version-of-the-meme-ok-boomer-20191119-p53bsv.html

    19 Nov: news.com.au: Australia Talks survey gives insight into our lives and the issues dividing us
    A major survey has given a rare insight into Aussie lives, and revealed the one major question that’s divides us more than any other issue.
    by Ally Foster
    A survey of almost 55,000 people has given insight into the opinions and lives of everyday Aussies, exploring divisive issues like climate change to revealing how often they have sex.
    The results of the Australia Talks survey were revealed on ABC Monday night, with hosts Annabel Crabb and Waleed Aly discussing the answers given to the 500 questions….
    • 84 per cent believe climate change is real and think action should be taken…

    ***The Australia Talks Survey was designed to capture data that accurately represents the views of all Australians, not just those who answered the survey, by using weighted data.
    ABC chair Ita Buttrose said it was designed to give an insight into what Australia is thinking…
    https://www.news.com.au/entertainment/tv/current-affairs/australia-talks-survey-gives-insight-into-our-lives-and-the-issues-dividing-us/news-story/3daf89a44abf1bba31e7d8be55d77f3f

    ***what a laugh. it was just a Vote Compass piece of nonsense.

    50

    • #
      pat

      sparking calls from Q&A/ABC viewers!

      19 Nov: Daily Mail: Outback schoolboy, 16, slams ‘narrow-minded’ politicians during passionate rant about climate change on Q&A – ***sparking calls for him to become PM
      •Dylan Storer, 16, returned to ABC’s Q&A panel with Tony Jones on Monday night
      •Teen was asked how he would deal with Australia’s environmental issues as PM
      •Storer called for a ‘revolution’ of the country’s energy regeneration system
      •He also slammed ‘narrow-minded’ politicians for rejecting climate change
      by Karen Ruiz
      Storer, who is from WA’s Kimberley region, rose to fame last year when he appeared on the panel for the first time to discuss indigenous affairs…
      He also weighed in on Tony Abbott’s role as the ambassador for indigenous affairs, implemented by Prime Minister Scott Morrison.
      ‘You need to look at the underlying issues, they all really relate back to the way Australia was settled, colonised, invaded,’ he said.
      ‘This top-down approach of the government coming in and saying we’re going to appoint, of all people, Tony Abbott, to deal with indigenous attendance, I think it’s really counter-intuitive.’
      The audience erupting into applause…

      Share or comment on this article: ***Q&A viewers call for teen Dylan Storer to be the next PM after impressive response
      https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7699549/Q-viewers-call-teen-Dylan-Storer-PM-impressive-response.html

      the writer of the above – big on identity politics, pro-Obama, anti-Trump:

      Twitter: Karen Ruiz, DailyMail reporter, Rutgers Alum, New York/Sydney
      https://twitter.com/_kareruiz?lang=en

      30

  • #
    AndyG55

    All this anguish, AGW screaming and carrying-on, degradation of society, removal of freedoms, stunted electrical supplies, overloaded bushfire burdens etc etc

    … and yet the green agenda is an ABSOLUTE FLOP when it comes to lowering global emissions of CO2, that most essential ingredient of all life on Earth

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/11/18/the-global-climate-alarmism-propaganda-campaign-has-failed-fossil-fuels-have-priority/

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  • #

    So true, Ruari.

    Energy received from the sun,
    Promethius-gifted to man,
    Yr electrical power,
    That can run any hour,
    And save us from Arma-ged-don

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  • #
  • #
    Another Ian

    Meanwhile the rest of the world is peeing downwind

    “The global climate alarmism propaganda campaign has failed – fossil fuels have priority”

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/11/18/the-global-climate-alarmism-propaganda-campaign-has-failed-fossil-fuels-have-priority/

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  • #

    This goes directly to electrical power generation in Victoria.

    With respect to wind power, when the wind blows, the blades turn and power is generated. If it blows way too strongly they turn them off, deliberately, so as they do not get damaged. (poor little petals, so delicate)

    You (well I can anyway) can tell when wind power will be good and when it will go ‘off’, just by watching the Weather maps.

    Most of those wind plants are in South Australia, and Victoria. So, with the approach of those large High pressure systems across that area, wind power falls away, and while they are centred over that area, wind power is low. It happens every time, and I can know now anything up to 24 hours before it happens, as I watch those systems approaching.

    Their outputs are not at zero all the time, because the wind is always blowing somewhere, so you (I) can click on each individual wind plant and see the output across the day. In those low times, they might be back at zero output for an hour or two, sometimes more, but there will always be ‘some’ output across the day.

    Okay, so the scene has been set.

    Macarthur wind plant is the largest (operational) wind plant in Australia, at a Nameplate of 420MW (nett – 130) and there are 140 individual wind towers spread across the vast area covered by this industrial power plant, and please, it’s not a ‘farm’.

    At 8AM on Monday, Macarthur wind plant was turned off. It didn’t fall away to zero power across time when the wind fell away. No. this was a deliberate switching off of the whole plant. An hour earlier it was at around 320MW, and at 8AM it was at 150MW. Five minutes later it was back at zero, a straight line fall back to zero.

    It has been at zero ever since then, now 52 hours later. Not one watt of power has been output from this plant.

    Okay, significant, maybe, maybe not, but the time, at exactly 8AM Monday morning. The AEMO works on the one time basis, (as electrical power generation and its consumption is instantaneous) and that time basis is Queensland time. So 8AM Queensland time is 9AM (DST) in Victoria.

    Someone turned up at work in AGL and intentionally made that decision to turn the plant off at 9AM, work start time.

    Please don’t try and tell me that altruism and a concern for reducing CO2 emissions with wind power has ANYTHING whatsoever to do with renewable power. It’s an economic decision only.

    Tony.

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