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Watching the Canadian Election and the silent poll factor …

UPDATE: Live results coming in at globalnews.ca

See Decision Canada: 170 seats to win, currently projected as Liberals–Trudeau: 156 (down 21 seats), Conservatives–Sheer:  122 (up 26 seats), 5 seats undecided.

Lib: 33.4%  Con: 34.25%  (as more votes are counted the Conservative vote is rising.)

Called as a minority Liberal govt. Trudeau to stay with support from either the NDP or The Bloc. Canada is divided. The Conservatives won slightly more of the popular vote but it was concentrated in the two oil-rich provinces Alberta and Saskatchewan, so they won fewer seats. In the largest, most populous province – Ontario — the liberals won twice as many seats as the conservatives. The Liberals are the party of the politically correct inner city voters.

Big loser is the NDP (social-democrats) falling from 39 seats to ? 25. Big winner is Bloc Québécois (separatist/centre left) going from 10 seats up to 22.)

*   *   *

Polls are on a knife edge as the Canadian 2019 election day rolls out

Map, Canadian Provinces.

Click to enlarge

In the US, Brexit and Australian elections the pollsters missed the hidden conservative vote. It was so strong some people said they’d vote Labor, but then they voted the other way, and then they left the polling booth and still told exit pollsters they voted for Labor. It wasn’t til the first hour of vote counting that people realized what had really happened.

When a whole side of politics becomes unfashionable, people know what the pollsters want to hear. The Conservative Party led by Andrew Scheer is running on a lower tax, No Carbon Tax platform, so there might be enough there to excite potential hidden voters. But will the voters throw out a one term government? Maybe. The old days of loyalty are over. How much is Canada hurting from political correctness?

According to the Australian ABC the key issues are what the PM wears for overseas trips and what he wore to dress up parties twenty years ago. I feel pretty confident that real Canadians have other concerns.

Conservatives in Canada have had some sweeping wins in a few provinces, and former PM Stephen Harper has said conservatives can win on the carbon taxes alone. In Ontario in 2018 – the ruling greener Liberals were crushed, losing 48 seats and even official party status. In Alberta, Kenney won a landslide in Alberta against carbon tax in April 2019. He vowed a War Room against energy activists.  It seems most Canadians are skeptics…

Whatever the main issues are in Canada, you can rely on our ABC to not discover them. The following is the usual ABC vacuum where important policy issues just disappear to be replaced with celebrity political gossip. This snippet tells us nothing about Canada but a lot about the ABC.

Canada’s election is on a knife edge, and Justin Trudeau is closely studying Scott Morrison’s victory

James Glenday, Australian ABC

Our website data suggests Australians don’t care to read a lot about Canada.

Rather, Australians don’t want to read another smug, empty politically-correct lecture from the ABC that contains nothing much of any substance.

In fact, you probably only clicked on this piece because you are interested in what’s going to happen to Justin Trudeau, the country’s famous yet scandal-afflicted Prime Minister, when he goes to the polls for a general election on Tuesday morning, Australian time.

ABC political tragics might be hanging on for Justin-Trudeau-news, but who else cares? (I mean apart from Canadians).

But Australian voters should probably give this tight race more than a cursory glance.

Leading political strategists on the left and right say Canada and Australia have the most similar electoral markets in the world.

They’ve long swapped notes about their successes and failures.

Hopefully our Canadian friends will tell us something more meaningful.

VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
Rating: 9.4/10 (65 votes cast)
Watching the Canadian Election and the silent poll factor ..., 9.4 out of 10 based on 65 ratings

53 comments to Watching the Canadian Election and the silent poll factor …

  • #
    Lance

    Out west here, Liberals don’t have a chance….but unfortunately, Quebec and Ontario can dictate who wins….our vote out West means nothing in the grand scheme….

    If the Liberals/NDP or whoever form a Gov’t or partnership, then Alberta is toast for its Energy, as they will be shut down….basically, Alberta (and possibly Sask) should vote to separate.

    200

    • #

      You should look into the law-changing power of spoiler votes. For instance, how did 1.2% of the votes over the course of 11 campaigns add to the U.S. Constitution an amendment urging Customs to murder people with (and without) beer at the Canadian border? Ask yourself that… then bone up on sigmoid replacement curves and the Solomon Asch Experiment on social pressure–especially the part about breaches of unanimity.

      00

    • #
      Lance

      Jason Kenny is getting thousands of e-mails from angry Albertan’s…..he is going to speak at 1 pm (out time)…
      Very sad day for Canada today. There is a lot of anger out West.

      20

  • #
    David Wojick

    The Conservatives are likely to get the most votes, but they have only two ways to win, neither being likely according to the polls. First they could get a majority of the votes, but the polls predict just 35% or so. Or the new populist party could get enough votes to form a majority coalition with them, but the newbies are pronged at just 3%, so 51% looks out of reach.

    Unfortunately the Liberals plus the even lefter NDP are likely to form the winning coalition, maybe even needing the Greens to get a majority. This pushes Canada even further to the left, maybe way further.

    One can hope for a surprise but I would not bet money on it.

    160

  • #
    Captain Dave

    Recent book launch events in Edmonton and Calgary were deplatformed when New Democratic Party (socialists recently deposed in an Alberta provincial election) thugs threatened and harassed the owner of the two theatres where the events were scheduled. The book was “The Libranos”, which exposed the depths of corruption in the federal Liberal party and especially Justin Trudeau. The author, Ezra Levant, is the leader of Rebel Media, one of the few media outlets that does not fawn over progressive policies. Most of Canada’s media organizations have accepted a cut of the six hundred million dollar “bail out” provided by the Liberal government. Most of our media is blatantly biased against conservative ideas, to the extent that members of the board that decided who got what payout openly promoted themselves as the “worst nightmare” of Andrew Scheer, the leader of our federal Conservative party.
    Only conservative parties have campaigned on providing pipelines for the prairie provinces which have suffered losses of jobs and revenues due to recent energy volatility and distribution issues. Several progressive parties promised to shut down our oil and gas industry if they got control. If a progressive party comes to power, there will be serious discussions as to whether Canada can still exist as a country, as separation becomes a popular option for Alberta and Saskatchewan, not just the everlasting threats from Quebec separatists.
    Captain Dave
    Calgary, Alberta, Canada

    160

  • #
    Alex

    Catalans want independence from Socialist Spain, the British want Brexit, Other Europeans want out of the EU’s bureau-crazy, Americans want Trump, Aussies have dumped Labour, Brazil has gone to the right including other SA states, Saudi Arabia has joined forces with Israel to beat Iran, Lebanese are up against Hezbollah, etc etc. Is the world on the mend?

    270

    • #
      nb

      I admire your optimism.
      The alternative view is; Trump is a mere 20 or so Senate votes from impeachment – impeachment for nothing at all. The UK is being kept in the EU by a few votes against its referendum; Australia is a few votes from a ‘climate emergency’ – an ‘emergency’ that would be used to destroy everything. These things are all happening at once. Meantime the media and tertiary education have become mere propaganda arms of the left.
      Yes, there are rebellions all over the place. Some of these tend towards fragmentation, but others represent hope.

      280

      • #
        Lawrie

        I fear that our politicians are either walking blindly or willingly toward socialising Australia. It is no coincidence that so many left wing projects are on the go at the same time. This is an orchestrated attack on the West and on democracy. The communists are slowly strangling us and our leaders are twisting the rope. The environment might be the meme but is not the end game; it is socialism. Why have our kids been denied an education that would include the errors and crimes of Stalin, Mao and Pol Pot? They have been taught that socialism is the best form of government and that capitalism is only for the rich. Who supports Extinction Revolution? The uneducated but brainwashed young and old socialists living on the taxpayer teat.

        The only things that will save us are an easily recognised cold change and multiple blackouts. I note with despair that one or more alumina smelters may close freeing up MWs of electricity which will allow the freaks of renewables a few more years before the lights go out.

        60

    • #
      theRealUniverse

      Saudi Arabia has joined forces with Israel to beat Iran, Israel was always a ‘partner’ to the Saudi regime. They (both) cant beat Iran, end of story. Saudi cant beat tribesmen from Yemen defending the slaughter of their people by Saudi Arabia. Iran is not a problem, (why do you think it is?). The elephant in the mid east room is…..

      20

  • #

    Threaten their beer, Justin. Threaten their beer…
    https://www.eldersweather.com.au/news/beer-and-climate-change/530376

    It worked for Julia. You just have to say “the science is in”, “published study” and “big business is on board”. No need to elaborate (Julia didn’t). Totally don’t talk about conservation, nobody even knows what that is now. Just send the message: Vote for me or our children’s children won’t know what beer is. Or maybe: By 2030 the barley line will be just below the Arctic.

    Remember: this is the first era in human history where higher education makes dumber. And Greta still hasn’t hit university.

    You have a real chance, Justin.

    170

    • #
      Greg in NZ

      Hey hey, beer was one of 7 crucial policies of the McGillicuddy Serious Party, 1984–1999 [R.I.P.]

      Using beer as a National Defence strategy: leaving bottles of beer on all beaches, so that any invading army would abandon its attack and get drunk while the broken bottles would prevent the army advancing any further

      • Sending out intelligence agents around the world to wipe New Zealand off published maps, thus ensuring that no-one could invade the country

      • Setting up a Frivolous Fraud Office to investigate any fraud deemed too silly for the Serious Fraud Office

      • Full employment by carpeting the national highways: this would also save wear and tear on tyres

      • Linking the North Island and South Island by bulldozing the Southern Alps into Cook Strait

      • The abolition of money, replacing it with chocolate fish or with sand

      • Breaking its promises

      40

    • #
      Greg in NZ

      Note to mods: oopsala! Cut ‘n’ pasted and forgot the ‘F’ word, please delete above post (and this) and the new one (below) should be legit (?)

      Hey hey, beer was one of 7 crucial policies of the McGillicuddy Serious Party, 1984–1999 [R.I.P.]

      Using beer as a National Defence strategy: leaving bottles of beer on all beaches, so that any invading army would abandon its attack and get drunk while the broken bottles would prevent the army advancing any further

      • Sending out intelligence agents around the world to wipe New Zealand off published maps, thus ensuring that no-one could invade the country

      • Setting up a Frivolous F®åüd Office to investigate any f®åüd deemed too silly for the Serious F®åüd Office

      • Full employment by carpeting the national highways: this would also save wear and tear on tyres

      • Linking the North Island and South Island by bulldozing the Southern Alps into Cook Strait

      • The abolition of money, replacing it with chocolate fish or with sand

      • Breaking its promises

      50

  • #
    Travis T. Jones

    A vote for Trudeau is a vote for 97% worse weather/climate. Ever …

    Climate change Global Warming could mean nicer, milder weather in Canada: study -

    “The globe, on average, is expected to lose four days of nice weather by 2035 and 10 days by 2081.

    But Canada – along with other mid-latitude areas such as Europe – is likely to see gains of anywhere from five days to three weeks.”

    https://globalnews.ca/news/3188392/climate-change-could-mean-nicer-milder-weather-in-canada-study/

    Slap a carbon (sic) tax on that!

    60

  • #

    Oregon is in the USA not Canada!


    [Dang. Sorry. Old post on Oregon got tagged "Canada" accidentally. :-( Oopsie. -Jo.]

    90

  • #
    The Depraved and MOST Deplorable Vlad the Impaler

    The following is just a “what if”, and should not be taken as tongue-in-cheek or any other form of humor, or even as a serious proposal; it’s just an active mind exploring an hypothesis; nothing else:

    We’ve known for a long time that Quebec desires to be its own nation. As far as this Yank is concerned, more power to them.

    Let us then look at the two provinces (Alberta/Saskatchewan) and their displeasure with being over-ruled by Ottawa. They could consider leaving Canada to become their own nation as well.

    Suppose, though, there was an alternative that the population presented to the larger Canadian government: “What If” the two provinces proposed leaving Canada, and join with the USA to become the 51st and 52nd States?

    Obviously, we’re looking at a lengthy process to integrate infrastructure and what-not, but again, as only a hypothetical, and nothing else, I am wondering if any of our friendly neighbors to the north have given any serious consideration to such an idea.

    While I welcome comments, no one is under any obligation to respond to this post. I’m just engaging in some idle, and otherwise time-wasting speculation.

    Best Regards to All,

    Vlad

    90

    • #
      Latus Dextro

      Vlad, over at Legal Insurrection Will Republicans ultimately fold on impeachment and removal? (Reader Poll) the discussion is interesting and insightful.
      In short, were the GOP RINOs and deep state to side with DEMS and impeachment take place, we may find ourselves looking at a secession and return of a new Confederacy of the free. The globalist Left and their corporatist cronies on the coasts would become another country behind walls to keep people in.
      The migration of northern provinces to a Confederacy would be interesting.

      90

    • #
      Lionell Griffith

      There is one small problem with that proposal. It looks like Canadian politics is just as psychotic as US politics with insignificant differences. Rather like jumping from the frying pan into the fire pit. Either way your goose is cooked. I don’t like those odds at all.

      70

    • #
      Lawrie

      I spent a mere five weeks in Canada with mainly conservative folk but I could not help but notice the pride they had in Canada and their need to differentiate themselves from the US. Anyway wait and see what the election brings. Having a combined majority of leftists may give Trudeau government but any over reach in policy will surely make his success short lived.

      50

  • #
    el gordo

    ‘When POLITICO showed up at a free big-screen election debate viewing party Oct. 7 at an Odeon cinema complex in Ottawa’s southern suburbs, it was a youth-free zone. The complex is a prime hangout for young locals, but they were in other theaters: by the debate kick-off a lone elderly couple had wandered in.’

    60

  • #
    Latus Dextro

    Spot on Alex. The MSM conceals the truth, while the bureaucrats of the unelected, unelectable deep state throughout the West do their utmost to sabotage the liberty and prosperity of society, to divide, exclude and impose inequality in the name of an inhuman and inhumane borderless, homogenised globalist corporatist nightmare of identity politics, cultural Marxism and political correctness.
    Whether they like it or not, the counterculture is obviously growing throughout the World in general and the West in particular and A New Conservative Age Is Rising!
    At some point push will come to shove.
    Meanwhile in the disintegrating EU, Macron has pushed back against Merkel and vetoed the absorption of North Macedonia and Albania into the ‘one size fits all’ redistributive EU. Globalism is waning.
    DUTCH FARMERS IN MASS REVOLT AGAINST GREEN FASCISM
    Yellow vest rebellion against Macron continues unrelentingly and under reported.

    A glimpse of the nightmare: What is really happening in Sweden, Greta?
    Canada, without a massive political correction will go the same way. I don’t believe the populous will stand for it in the long run.

    90

  • #
    David Maddison

    Albertan opposition to Greta Thunberg (actually her handlers as she is just a manipulated child).

    https://youtu.be/JOMTLKk9erA

    https://youtu.be/LJ6Rhmw_GSk

    71

  • #
    David Maddison

    Thunberg is supposedly related to Svante Arrenhius who first claimed wood and coal burning would cause CO2 to rise and cause global warming.

    Warning: this is a warmist article.

    https://www.wamc.org/post/david-nightingale-arrhenius-greta

    110

  • #
    Kalm Keith

    The incredible control now exerted on public thinking by “The Media” is our current war that we have to fight.

    A song from sixty years ago may help lighten things a bit.

    It seems that humanity is always under threat from some human error or impulse.

    http://joannenova.com.au/2019/10/extinction-rebellions-real-target-are-old-english-men/#comment-2208099

    KK

    60

    • #
      Latus Dextro

      I recently took to task a U.Auckland academic with WHO connections that likened the hesitancy and suspicion of vaccinations as a problem that equated to ‘climate change’. Her spiel came loaded with arguments from authority, false equivalence, and strawman constructs advocating censorship of social media, for the good of the people. She disregarded the Dr Wakefield vaccination/autism travesty, peddled by an ‘expert’, the MSM and a learned journal, The Lancet, which took a further 11 years to fully retract the paper, although it was debunked in 1998 after publication. The demented Left have successful infected the unthinking useful idiots, academics or otherwise.

      60

      • #
        Kalm Keith

        I have always appreciated vaccinations but have recently been very concerned about the rapid introduction of and presumably “poorly tested” annual flue shots.

        Then there were some recent deaths in young people given inappropriate vaccinations.

        Much before this children were being given antidepressants based on SSRIs.

        It needs care and monitoring.

        KK

        40

  • #
    ЯΞ√ΩLUT↑☼N

    Just get that snivelling non-inclusive (because he admonished a member of the crowd) Trudeau out – him and his “people-kind”:

    https://youtu.be/xhlRpn8IkGs

    80

  • #
    Delory

    People may be interested in this petition (https://www.aph.gov.au/petition_list?id=EN1116) requesting Australia to leave the Paris agreement. (Only Australian citizens eligible to vote may sign)

    110

  • #
    David Maddison

    Soy Boy Trudeau is a poster child as to the dangers of men consuming too many soy products.

    90

  • #
    David

    It doesn’t matter what the weather is. There are always some clowns making it about climate change. Our institutions are completely worthless. The universities buy into this climate change claptrap because of grants. The media buys into it because of ratings. There is nonstop propaganda for this b.s. on television, in the schools, etc. Not sure whether reason can stand up to this b.s.

    80

  • #
    Greg in NZ

    Greta Gullible a terr or ist foreign mercenary?
    “But it also raises the question, why is the BBC also interfering in the Canadian election?”

    https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2019/10/18/how-dare-you-interfere-in-our-federal-election-greta-thunberg/

    Via a commenter’s link in the above NALOPKT article, Greta Actress Starlet (GAS) pictured interviewing “Chief Archie Waquan on the shores of Gregoire Lake near Fort McMurray, Alta., Saturday, Oct.19, 2019, as Thunberg continued her tour of Alberta’s oilsands region”, layered/dressed warmly in puffer jacket 3 sizes too big, waterproof overpants, stock-standard beanie (all produced from fo-fo-fossil fuel by-products?). Can’t see her hands nor feet so not sure what evil carbon material she is wearing on her extremities to keep herself from freezing to death

    https://edmonton.citynews.ca/2019/10/20/thunberg-interviews-leaders-for-documentary-alberta-indigenous-group-says/

    Just one question, your Honour: How is she, and her troupe of groupies, travelling around North America? Blessed bison beasts of burden? On the wings of rainbow eagles? Upon the slippery scales of sacred salmon as they swim silently upstream to their ancestral spawning streams? Oh no, Climate Change Global Warming now causes outbreaks of verbal alliteration – we’re doomed I tells ya!

    20

    • #
      Greg in NZ

      15 October 2019
      “A look at the powerful, elite-backed machine behind Greta Thunberg and the true agenda behind her world tour”.

      https://vigilantcitizen.com/latestnews/the-elite-machine-behind-greta-thunberg/

      Beware: contains photos of actress/es pulling the old ‘one-eye’ sign/symbol.
      Conclusion: “the best way to obtain control and submission is by creating a fearful and panicky population that begs for governments to fix its problems”. Whooduh thunked – some things never change.

      50

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        The Elite and their one eyed occult symbolism at it again…easy to spot if you know what to look for…..you see a lot of occult symbilism in music videos and especially the 2012 olympic games ( which appeared to have a lot of druidic props ).

        Shows you whats really going on.

        20

  • #
    Serge Wright

    It’s always difficult to make predictions on election outcomes, especially when it’s not your own country. However, what is evident is the definite progression back to a more conservative position on CC policy by voters in western countries in general. In the case of this election, one would expect the people who are grievanced by the harsh taxes and economic fallout from CC policy will be more likley to visit the ballot box to cast a protest vote and we do know that conservatives now tend to hide their voting intentions when being surveyed due to the level of hate speech directed at them by left wing ideologues.

    Ironically, Canada is a country that would receive huge benefits from the kind of unrealistic warming that is propagated by the alarmists. It’s also a county that survives a constant climate emergency every year called winter, where even the breakdown of your vehicle on a lonely highway can be fatal. You would hope that reality will overcome fake propaganda at some point and Trudeau will be recognised by his real namesake as ‘Fakedeau’. Let’s hope today is that day !!!

    100

  • #
    Brian the Engineer

    True Doh!

    40

    • #
      Andrew McRae

      Looking very much like a clear TruD’OH victory at the moment.
      Twenty minutes ago the elected totals were identical between Lib and Con. Then a few minutes ago the Liberals shot ahead 20 seats.

      Their first preference votes are identical at 33.8% so the Libs must be winning on 2nd preferences from other parties. I guess that indicates a fair amount of protest votes from people who would still give it to the Libs over the Cons but aren’t totally happy with blackfaceman’s regime.

      Conservatives would need 73 more seats to win, but there’s only 60 unconfirmed seats, so Conservatives cannot win.
      Lib only need another 52 seats to form a majority at this point and with 60 unconfirmed seats it is still possible.
      Definitely a TruD’OH retain, only a question of majority or coalition.

      30

  • #
    pat

    21 Oct: National Post: Canadian election results 2019: A live riding-by-riding map of the vote
    A party needs to win 170 out of 338 federal ridings to claim a majority government. Watch our live map to determine how your riding voted and explore close races across Canada.
    MAP
    The Canadian Press projects a Liberal government
    MAP
    https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/election-2019/canadian-federal-election-live-riding-map-results

    10

  • #
    Ross

    Looks like Trudeau is back in. Liberals = 146 and New Democrats = 24 gives the needed 170. Few more results still to come in so totals will increase a bit.

    30

  • #
    pat

    22 Oct: AFP: Trudeau’s Liberals win Canada vote, will form minority govt
    Television projections declared the Liberals winners or leading in 157 of the nation’s 338 electoral districts, versus 121 for his main rival Andrew Scheer and the Conservatives, after polling stations across six time zones closed.
    As early as Tuesday, Trudeau will have to form an alliance or formal coalition with one or more smaller parties in order to govern…

    (FINAL SENTENCE) The Green Party, hopeful for a breakout, managed to add only one seat, bringing its tally to three…
    https://www.afp.com/en/news/15/trudeaus-liberals-win-canada-vote-will-form-minority-govt-doc-1lm5ub1

    ABC finds a way to give the Greens something to say:

    22 Oct: ABC: Justin Trudeau’s Liberals to form Canadian minority government, CBC projects
    “[A minority government] would force people to talk to each other, which is what we need,” said Naomi Higgins, a 25-year-old voter in Toronto who supported the Liberals four years ago but switched to the Greens in this election.
    “We need to … start doing what’s best for everyone instead of what makes one party or the other look best.”
    The Greens were leading or elected in one seat…
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-22/trudeaus-liberals-to-form-canadian-minority-government-cbc-says/11626360

    30

    • #
      pat

      ABC attributed their piece to Reuters/AP. no surprise Reuters had the Greens stuff. ABC chose not to include the Goodale bits:

      21 Oct: Reuters: Trudeau’s Liberals to form Canadian minority government: CBC
      by David Ljunggren, Kelsey Johnson; Additional reporting by Steve Scherer in Ottawa, Jeff Lewis in Calgary, Alberta, Allison Martell, Moira Warburton and Fergal Smith in Toronto
      ***“(A minority government) would force people to talk to each other, which is what we need,” said Naomi Higgins, a 25-year-old voter in Toronto who supported the Liberals four years ago but switched to the Greens in this election ETC…

      Liberal campaign strategists say four members of Trudeau’s Cabinet could lose their parliamentary seats, including Public Safety Minister Ralph Goodale, a veteran member of parliament who is seen as one of the government’s heavyweights.

      Goodale, 70, is the only Liberal member of parliament from the western province of Saskatchewan, where anger at Trudeau is mounting over federal environmental policies that the energy industry says will harm output.

      The oil industry’s top lobbying group has blamed Trudeau’s policies for throttling investment in the sector, and some global energy companies have shed assets in the oil sands region of Alberta, the country’s main oil-producing province…
      https://www.reuters.com/article/us-canada-election/canada-votes-as-trudeau-his-sunny-ways-clouded-by-scandals-tries-to-hold-power-idUSKBN1X00D3

      20

  • #
    AndyG55

    Huge gains for Conservatives, like most other places with recent elections.

    20

  • #

    Well and good that the looters are defeating the other looters. But what kind of spoiler vote tally did Canada’s Libertarian Party bring in?

    10

  • #
    Rupert Ashford

    Good luck for the next few years Canada – you brought it over yourself. People will not vote against this climate madness until it starts hurting them personally. Aussies all of a sudden seem more intelligent than I gave them credit for until recently.

    On a different note: Wonder if the bunch who constantly whine and b!..h that “Trump didn’t win the popular vote” will now be heard in this case as well, or is now a convenient time to just be quiet?

    20

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