JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


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Cosmic rays seeded clouds during the last geomagnetic reversal

That’s not in the models

Cosmic rays, graph, theory.

The cosmic ray theory, Henrik Svensmark, (Click to enlarge)

What if our clouds are partly driven by a rain of cosmic radiation from far flung exploding stars… What if the warming on Earth had more to do with magnetic fields than with CO2?  h/t GWPF

The Grand Mal test of Henrik Svensmark’s cosmic ray theory was 780,000 years ago when the poles on Earth flipped. For 5,000 wild years our magnetic shield was down to about a quarter of its normal strength. That would have allowed more cosmic rays to come streaking through the atmosphere down to the lowest part, crashing into molecules and generally busting things up in the air. Those ionised particles then seed clouds — in theory, which make an umbrella shade for the planet, keeping things cooler, and reflecting all that solar heat back into space. But how do we measure clouds that disappeared three quarters of a million years ago?

A team at Kobe University studied the patterns of monsoons in East Asia during the reversal. They argue that the extra low clouds would cause the winter monsoons to become stronger, so they looked closely at layers of dust deposited in the Loess Plateau south of the Gobi desert in China. There, something like 2.6 million years of dust has collected. When the winds are stronger the layers of dust are thicker and the particles are bigger. And sure enough, during that 5,000 year period the winds were blowing hard, the monsoons were stronger, and dust accumulated three times faster. Temperatures fell by around 2 – 3 degrees.

So this is further evidence that magnetic fields (like the Sun’s rather large one) have an effect on clouds. The stronger the fields the fewer the clouds. That obviously shows that magnetic fields change the temperature on Earth, though it doesn’t say “how much”. So this is a quasi proof of concept, which is very helpful, but these were extraordinary conditions (where our North pole becomes our South Pole). If the field fell by 75% and temperatures only fell 2 – 3 degrees, it seems to me, that there must be other major players that the IPCC favoured models also don’t include. (Like the solar wind, solar spectral changes, ozone for starters). But nonetheless, it’s still a bigger empirical effect than any due to CO2. Remembering that CO2′s supposed effect is only “discovered” by asking broken models with missing variables to explain the last 50 years. Ergo: if we ignore most solar physics, “it must be CO2″. (See how to create a crisis graph in six easy steps).

Amazing what people can figure out from a pile of old dust.

 – Jo

Winter monsoons became stronger during geomagnetic reversal

Press release

 New evidence suggests that high-energy particles from space known as galactic cosmic rays affect the Earth’s climate by increasing cloud cover, causing an “umbrella effect”.

When galactic cosmic rays increased during the Earth’s last geomagnetic reversal transition 780,000 years ago, the umbrella effect of low-cloud cover led to high atmospheric pressure in Siberia, causing the East Asian winter monsoon to become stronger. This is evidence that galactic cosmic rays influence changes in the Earth’s climate. The findings were made by a research team led by Professor Masayuki Hyodo (Research Center for Inland Seas, Kobe University) and published on June 28 in the online edition of Scientific Reports.

Cosmic ray theory, Mongolia, geomagetic reversal. Cloud cover. Graph, 2019.

Figure 2. Comparison of Loess Plateau monsoons with the paleoclimate and paleoenvironment changes from other regions(a) North Atlantic paleoceanic environment. (b) Northwest Pacific (Chiba Section) paleoceanic environment. (c) Lingtai summer rainfall. (d) Xifeng summer rainfall. (e) Osaka Bay sea levels. (f) Osaka Bay mean temperature of the warmest month (MTWA), mean temperature of the coldest month (MTCO). (g) Lingtai winter monsoon strength. (h) Xifeng winter monsoon strength. (i) Magnetic dipole strength. (j) Cosmic ray flux. (k) Winter insolation at 45 degrees north. The blue bar shows the period of the intensified winter monsoon in the Loess Plateau and the cooling event in Osaka Bay


The Svensmark Effect is a hypothesis that galactic cosmic rays induce low cloud formation and influence the Earth’s climate. Tests based on recent meteorological observation data only show minute changes in the amounts of galactic cosmic rays and cloud cover, making it hard to prove this theory. However, during the last geomagnetic reversal transition, when the amount of galactic cosmic rays increased dramatically, there was also a large increase in cloud cover, so it should be possible to detect the impact of cosmic rays on climate at a higher sensitivity.

In the Chinese Loess Plateau, just south of the Gobi Desert near the border of Mongolia, dust has been transported for 2.6 million years to form loess layers – sediment created by the accumulation of wind-blown silt – that can reach up to 200 meters in thickness. If the wind gets stronger, the coarse particles are carried further, and larger amounts are transported. Focusing on this phenomenon, the research team proposed that winter monsoons became stronger under the umbrella effect of increased cloud cover during the geomagnetic reversal. They investigated changes in particle size and accumulation speed of loess layer dust in two Loess Plateau locations.

In both locations, for about 5000 years during the geomagnetic reversal 780,000 years ago, they discovered evidence of stronger winter monsoons: particles became coarser, and accumulation speeds were up to > 3 times faster. These strong winter monsoons coincide with the period during the geomagnetic reversal when the Earth’s magnetic strength fell to less than ¼, and galactic cosmic rays increased by over 50%. This suggests that the increase in cosmic rays was accompanied by an increase in low-cloud cover, the umbrella effect of the clouds cooled the continent, and Siberian high atmospheric pressure became stronger. Added to other phenomena during the geomagnetic reversal – evidence of an annual average temperature drop of 2-3 degrees Celsius, and an increase in annual temperature ranges from the sediment in Osaka Bay – this new discovery about winter monsoons provides further proof that the climate changes are caused by the cloud umbrella effect.

“The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has discussed the impact of cloud cover on climate in their evaluations, but this phenomenon has never been considered in climate predictions due to the insufficient physical understanding of it”, comments Professor Hyodo. “This study provides an opportunity to rethink the impact of clouds on climate. When galactic cosmic rays increase, so do low clouds, and when cosmic rays decrease clouds do as well, so climate warming may be caused by an opposite-umbrella effect. The umbrella effect caused by galactic cosmic rays is important when thinking about current global warming as well as the warm period of the medieval era.”

 The Earth’s magnetic shield,
Will to powerful cosmic rays yield,
Forming cooling-down clouds,
On our planet like shrouds,
More and more in a weak solar field.

–Ruairi

Journal Reference:

  1. Yusuke Ueno, Masayuki Hyodo, Tianshui Yang, Shigehiro Katoh. Intensified East Asian winter monsoon during the last geomagnetic reversal transitionScientific Reports, 2019; 9 (1) DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-45466-8

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Cosmic rays seeded clouds during the last geomagnetic reversal, 9.6 out of 10 based on 54 ratings

96 comments to Cosmic rays seeded clouds during the last geomagnetic reversal

  • #
    Sweet Old Bob

    Lots of comments on this over at WUWT .
    ;)

    70

    • #
      Bill in Oz

      Thanks Jo for posting this. An interesting article and real science to think about.
      I have Svensmark’s 2009 book on the shelf.
      I think he is correct in his hypothesis about the impact of cosmic rays on our weather & climate.
      But I am perplexed about exactly how this study of the Loess dust on North East China helps to further establish that hypothesis.

      If the Winter monsoons were stronger then in East Asia,
      It would also have been a wetter time
      With less dust in the air to be deposited as Loess.

      Or have I missed something ?.

      120

      • #
        Bill in Oz

        Jo, the Green thumb feature is not working.
        When I try to give a green thumb to a comment
        I’m told it is a duplicate vote.
        But the count has not/ does not changed
        Very odd !

        90

        • #
          el gordo

          You have to jump out completely and refresh, in the heat of the moment we sometimes forget we have already ticked at a different level.

          Reading through the comments at wuwt the resident experts have poured cold water on the paper.

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  • #
    Lionell Griffith

    Strange. When you don’t consider it, don’t talk about it, don’t write about it, and even ignore it, if it can happen it eventually will. No matter how convenient it would have been not to have happened. Yet the green blob still pretends that reality will bend to their wishes and whims.

    The most fundamental truth of all is that reality is what it is and behaves as it does because if what it is. All without including our most fervent wishes and beliefs to guide its actions.

    As humans wishing to stay alive, we had better work to understand what actually is because make believe doesn’t work. The only wish that works is, if you don’t wish to stay alive, stop bothering the rest of us and simply do nothing. Your wish will soon become true. At least then you would be useful to the rest of us as compost. Otherwise, go away quietly.

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    • #
      tom0mason

      Lionell Griffith,

      Many politicians are Fabianists, Obama, Tony Blair, and most of the elites in the UN.

      The famous Fabian window says it all.
      “WE REMOLD IT NEARER TO THE HEART’S DESIRE” …
      (may be they should have included — regardless of the consequences — for that is what they preach.)
      The window contains the image of two men—founders of the society—hammering the globe (from the top down no less) with sledgehammers—imposing their will on the world so to speak. They are not voting; they are not persuading; nor are they preaching to the masses. They are hammering the world with very big hammers.

      See the image here

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      • #
        Kinky Keith

        Must come back to this link again. Very Arthurian.

        60

      • #
        Bill in Oz

        So what ? I was once a member of the Fabian society in Victoria.
        No longer am.
        That happened to lot’s of folks.
        Better to stay on topic Tom
        And in this post the topic is science !

        20

        • #
          Kinky Keith

          Unfortunately , Bill, there’s a very strong political odour to Global Warming, so it’s inevitably part of the investigation.

          40

          • #
            Bill in Oz

            Keith I agree with you when you write “there’s a very strong political odour to Global Warming,”
            But this research stands or falls on the strength of it’s scientific research. And I’m keen to see that side of things discussed. I prefer that we stay focussed on that and thus come to our own assessments. OK ?

            20

          • #
            OriginalSteve

            More a stench…..

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    • #

      The earth is encased in an impenetrable bubble, making it a closed system impervious to any external influences. The sun, the planets, the universe has no effect on anything climatic happens on earth. Only dirty coal affects our climate. I spoke to a Flat Earther and it’s true.

      260

      • #
        Latus Dextro

        Amazing what people can figure out from a pile of old dust.

        Not half as amazing as what one person can figure out from a lone bristlecone pine.

        100

    • #

      Reality is
      what it IS,
      and all your
      piety and wit
      won’t alter it,
      not one iota,
      not one little bit.

      H/t Aristotles’ First
      Law of Identity.

      40

  • #
    RAH

    Thanks Jo.
    “The Svensmark Effect is a hypothesis that galactic cosmic rays induce low cloud formation and influence the Earth’s climate. Tests based on recent meteorological observation data only show minute changes in the amounts of galactic cosmic rays and cloud cover, making it hard to prove this theory.”

    As my knowledge of climate and weather and it’s record has increased, the more I have tended to ascribe to Svensmark’s theory. The physical processes involved have been demonstrated in experiments in labs, but as you point out, on the larger scale in the real world, it is much harder to nail down.

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    • #

      Actual lab experiments that can be replicated certainly have more credibility than half-baked computer models based on guesswork, errors and careful manipulation.

      70

    • #
      Bob Weber

      Cosmoclimatology/the Svensmark Effect is a spurious correlation.

      The ocean produces the clouds Svensmark claims for his cosmic ray theory, during increasing MEI/decreasing Central Pacific OLR conditions, as observed here using figure 10 from his latest paper.

      The strong OLR-cloud relationship is plotted here and here.

      Cosmic rays exhibit almost no correlation with ISCCP clouds

      Clouds (and CO2) are outcomes of solar cycle TSI variation.

      It’s no coincidence that cosmic rays and clouds follow the solar cycle, but to claim cosmic rays cause the clouds is a misattribution, just like attributing temperature rise to increasing CO2, wherein both theories implicitly ignore the primary role of the sun’s TSI in warming/cooling the ocean.

      10

      • #
        Alexander Carpenter

        Come on, Guy. This is not a binary situation; it’s not either sun acting on oceans or cosmic rays. Both are operating simultaneously and continuously (and interoperating), in a complex system that simple minds have a hard time accommodating-to, since their reductionist, linearizing post-Modern “science” paradigm isn’t up to the task of comprehending complex systems.

        20

  • #
    Clyde Spencer

    A significant problem with the theory is that the Earth’s geomagnetic field has been decreasing in intensity for something like a century. That should allow more GCR’s to enter the atmosphere, causing more clouds, and cooling Earth.

    70

    • #
      RAH

      As I understand it the solar magnetic field and heliosphere is the silver back gorilla in our solar system room. The solar magnetic field in it’s spiraled dipole structure and solar wind of the heliosphere does more to protect us from cosmic rays than our own, relatively puny magnetosphere.

      110

      • #
        Clyde Spencer

        RAH
        The title of the article speaks to the Earth’s magnetic field rather than the Sun’s. And, Svenmark’s theory talks about the weak or non-existent field during the reversal of the Earth’s field. So, the sun may be the 800 lb gorilla, but it interacts with its mate, Gaia.

        80

    • #
      Kinky Keith

      Hi Clyde,

      What we need is a base point to measure cloud cover.
      Maybe there has been an increase?

      80

      • #
        Clyde Spencer

        KK
        We may have such a thing, but the professional climatologists apparently haven’t used it. The first Landsat was launched in 1972. A routine procedure for evaluating the suitability of the imagery was to make an estimate of the cloud cover for EVERY scene recorded. One could take areas such as Glacier National Park or the Himalayas, and plot the cloud cover for the scene over time to see if there is a trend. I’ve thought about doing it, but it would be a fair amount of work, and I’m adverse to working for no pay. We might ask why NASA hasn’t done it, since they now share the Landsat archiving responsibilities with the US Geological Survey.

        50

        • #

          Indeed. Though one catch is that we need information about the height of clouds too. Low clouds cool, but high clouds do the opposite.

          Still might be possible with some AI or pattern searching to estimate High/low ratio. Maybe.

          It would still be useful to know total cloud, and it does seem odd that it hasn’t been done.

          60

          • #
            Clyde Spencer

            Jo
            The high clouds heat by retarding IR upwelling at night. All the historical Landsat imagery is for the daytime. Even cirrus clouds will increase the albedo in the daytime. A meteorologist(even an actual climatologist, but not a geophysicist!) might be able to distinguish low-level clouds from high-level clouds from their appearance. But, that would require a team looking at 10′s of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of images. For the approach I suggested, the work has already been done for total, daytime cloud cover. I think that it would be a good first-order test of the claim made by Steve Mosher that there has been no change in cloudiness.

            50

            • #
              Kinky Keith

              :-)
              O.K. I can deal with upwelling and dismiss the effects of human origin CO2 as quantitatively irrelevant after water and natural origin CO2, and that’s IF there is such a mechanism. But please, no downwelling.

              The Svensmark idea is good but the major driver of climate change is the orbital mechanics that has produced four very clear cycles that may very well repeat.

              Nearly half a million years of history is hard to ignore as the appropriate Model.

              KK

              52

          • #
            Peter C

            Though one catch is that we need information about the height of clouds too. Low clouds cool, but high clouds do the opposite.

            Well according to NASA high clouds warm the Earth surface!

            But not according to my measurements. I have tried to measure the effect of clouds by two different methods:
            Firstly I used an infrared thermometer to measure the temperature of the macadam road surface outside my house under clear skies and varying thicknesses of cirrus clouds. In no case did I find higher temperatures under cloud. If the cirrus cover was sufficient to cause dimming of the shadows the road surface teperature went down.
            Pointing the thermometer upward did not shown any increase in temperature compared with clear sky, becasue cirrus clouds are very cold.
            In the second experiment I made a radiometer from a well tarnished metal disc, insulated in a shallow well of styrofoam. A plastic foodwrap cover over the well allowed sunlight onto the surface of the disc but prevented convective heat loss. The temperature of the disc was measured with a thermocouple digital thermometer, taped onto the back surface. Results were the same as the first experiment. Very thin cirrus is much the same as clear sky. Thicker cirrus reduces surface heating.

            Conversely it is the low cloud layers which retain tenperatures over night, not the high cirrus clouds.

            Consequently I say that NASA has no experimental evidence for their statement about high clouds causing warming. It is all just Greenhouse Theory! Falsified Greenhouse Theory.

            60

          • #
            rk

            Jo, the reason it has not been done is because it would be impossible to do. Cloud occurs at all levels, not just high and low, and even then what level is high and what level is low? With thunderstorms the cloud can exist all the way from 500′ to 65,000′ and sometimes higher. Fog can occur from ground level to a few thousand feet if in a valley and no wind. Altostratus and altocumulus can occur over a wide area from 10,000′ upwards. At certain times, often in winter temperature inversions can put a thick layer of cloud over a wide area, but there can still occur other cloud types above at different levels up to cirrus and cirrostratus. High level cloud like thunderstorms can certainly cool the air because the moisture coming out of them will be very cold. Cloud at 35,000′ will have a temperature of -55 C on a standard atmospheric day.

            40

            • #
              rk

              Further to this you can get a cloud mass that extends all the way from a few hundred feet to above 35,000′, unbroken, that would be cumulus of course.

              40

              • #
                Sceptical Sam

                I don’t accept that. Just as I don’t accept average global temperature estimates that include guesses where there’s a global temperature grid with no data.(kriging??).

                Science works by categorising. So categorise. And test. And catergorise again and again. And test. Repeat until it is established that it’s impossible, or not.

                However, being a sceptic, I’m not convinced that NASA and possibly other agencies haven’t already done this sort of work, but because the answer is not to their liking they’ve done the green thing and suppressed it.

                If they haven’t done it then there lies the answer to the question: “why don’t the models work?”

                30

    • #
      Andrew McRae

      Another natural test of the Svensmark hypothesis should be the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Atlantic_Anomaly
      where the magnetic field is always weaker at sea level than anywhere else on Earth.
      The Van Allen belts are able to reach down to an altitude of 200km in this location, and geomagnetic storms cause induced currents in communications lines to be highly disruptive in this area (see Trivedi 2005). The field strength at sea level is 24000nT in this region versus 32000+ nT over the rest of the planet, at least a 20% reduction.

      IIRC, Svensmark also said the mechanism should have more effect at mid-latitudes rather than the tropics, and the area west of the southern South America definitely qualifies as mid-latitude.
      Therefore we should see cloud cover stronger over that region relative to other longitudes at the same latitude when low-level cloud cover is averaged over 5 years or more.
      I’m not sure how to actually test that. The only global average cloud cover movie I’ve seen does not obviously show anything anomalous over the SAA, just judging by eye.

      10

      • #
        Andrew McRae

        Errata: “the area west of” was meant to be “the area east of”

        More info. I have been able to extract all frames of the MODIS cloud cover movie (Jan 2005 – 2013) and average them all together to make this image: https://imgur.com/a/40vgIAM

        The South Atlantic Magnetic Anomaly does not seem to be accompanied by a South Atlantic Cloud Cover Anomaly.
        There even seems to be more cloud cover in the Atlantic east of the anomaly than inside the anomaly region at the same latitude.

        I now see upthread others are arguing the solar magnetic field is the largest contributor to the effect. Fair enough, the earth’s field won’t make much difference if all the protons and cosmic rays are already being deflected by the sun.

        I think all this shows is that the Earth’s magnetic field anomaly does not usually have enough power over cloud formation in this region to be able to rise above all the other factors affecting cloud cover in that region, such as prevailing winds and the proximity of the anomaly to dry land.
        In hindsight it actually was not a good test of the Svensmark effect. For Svensmark it would be more informative to check what happens spatially in this region compared to rest of same latitudes at all times of unusually weakened solar magnetic field in the vicinity of Earth, which are relatively rare events. But generally we can set aside Earth’s field as relatively unimportant to GCR flux.

        20

  • #
    Kinky Keith

    From the illustrious “scientists” at UNIPCCC HQ;

    ” but this phenomenon has never been considered in climate predictions due to the insufficient physical understanding of it”,

    By extension, does this mean that they have full and exhaustive research, facts and figures on the impact of CO2 on atmospheric temperature?

    Or is it just the usual; politically authorized Verbiage.

    KK

    240

    • #
      Curious George

      That’s what forced the science to be settled.

      80

    • #
      Robdel

      i thought they performed an experiment at CERN in a giant cloud Chamber to test Svensmark’s theory. Does anyone know anything about that?

      50

      • #

        Yes, there are some relevant links here:
        http://everist.org/archives/links/__AGW_links.txt
        Search for “re CERN CLOUD experiment”

        Summary: The CLOUD experiment at LHC experimentally proved that cosmic rays do have a significant effect on cloud formation in a physical simulation of Earth’s high altitude atmospheric conditions.
        The Warmists, knowing the experiment would be harmful to their propaganda, had tried to shut down the CLOUD experiment before it could start. But they failed, thanks to lobbying by real scientists. The experiment was run, and indeed the results were poison to the Warmist rubbish. Also the whole incident was a fine proof that the core Warmist strategists are fully aware their rubbish is contrary to reality. Ergo, they are pushing lies solely for ideological reasons.

        90

        • #
          Bill in Oz

          That link is a mine of information of all types.
          But finding the evidence of the CERN experiment is like looking for a needle in a haystack.
          Not useful to this discussion.

          30

      • #
        sophocles

        Search youtube for `Jasper Kirkby’. He’s the head honcho for the Cloud Experiment. I’ve watched one (!) of his videos and it was very very interesting.

        I keep meaning to go back for more, but keep being distracted by real life and such stuff.
        … one day.

        50

        • #
          Robdel

          Thanks for the link. I am astonished that CERN did not pursue the Kirkby experiment but succumbed to the AGW mantra. Very worrying indeed.

          30

    • #
      Another Ian

      KK

      Sounds like the usual modelling procedure:-

      If in doubt leave it out

      40

  • #
    Kinky Keith

    And in the end what are we talking about.

    Effectively it’s about fluctuations in the observed and recorded weather over the last two hundred years.

    The “experts” conveniently sideline the important background of the true and relevant time scale of 500,000 years and the convulsive weather that is so much a part of that history.

    The elite scientists behind this mess ascribe stability and purity to nature and death damage and destruction to Industrial Man.

    Are they deliberately not seeing the whole picture?

    KK

    KK

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  • #
    Kinky Keith

    Reading the link to ToMo’s post above prompted a look up of lyrics in Megadeth songs.

    One of them seemed to describe a random citizen, AOC, nominally running a country with the Black Hand having the real control in the background.

    I

    31

  • #
    Kinky Keith

    Another excellent post Jo illustrating the depth and complexity of the situation and how it has been “homogenised” by Climate Science.

    From the past Revisiting The Models.

    Kinkykeith
    April 29, 2012 at 6:25 am
    Brett

    You could also mention the Metallurgy Degree which has it all including modeling of systems that are CO2 producers.

    Many of us were caught out by the dishonesty of the Climate Scientists claims of having modeled the atmosphere.

    We all assumed that the news-media had simply misreported the detail and got CO mixed up with CO2 and that the models only represented a small element of the atmospheric behavior NOT THE ENTIRE THING.

    Anyone with true knowledge of modeling knows that you cannot model the whole thing. There are so many physical, chemical, astronomical, geological, industrial and population interactions in the atmosphere that to make claim to having modeled it is FARCICAL.

    The time delays and cyclical interactions of many of the processes in the biosphere make a FULL MODEL absolutely impossible.

    The fact is that : There are NO Models as claimed.

    By definition, a model must be shown to work. The Models are simply works in progress.

    -,,,,,

    KK

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  • #

    Econazis call this a junk science blog, especially since it’s better than all of theirs. I have no strong opinions abt the cosmic ray theory and am at a loss to explain the pole flips. But it is interesting and I’d lay odds the anti-industrial revolutionist will struggle to ignore it.
    The freon bans voted in 1987 appear to have made no difference on Antarctic ozone, and several volcanoes n addition to Mt Erebus have been found there. Barely a ninth of humanity lives in the southern Hemisphere. If we had ANYTHING to do with ozone, the hole would be over Santa’s workshop in the Northern Hemisphere, not those chlorine-spewing volcanoes or oceans of NACl water in the South. But the laws were passed, your AC now breaks more often running unreliable high-pressure replacement gases. Enter misanthropic global warming as the cause! Instead of repealing the erroneous ban on good freon, the same lying scientist-impersonators invent a warming trend to explain away why your AC breaks and hold onto the false-premise coercion already enacted.

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  • #
    el gordo

    There was a minor reversal 41,000 years ago and it persisted for a few hundred years.

    https://phys.org/news/2012-10-extremely-reversal-geomagnetic-field-climate.html

    Mungo man experienced it.

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    • #
      el gordo

      They call these small events ‘excursions’ and I think we are due for one.

      ‘In fact, from 1–3 million years ago, climate cycles did match the 41,000-year cycle in obliquity. After 1 million years ago, the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT) occurred with switch to the 100,000-year cycle matching eccentricity. The transition problem refers to the need to explain what changed 1 million years ago.

      ‘The MPT can now be reproduced in numerical simulations that include a decreasing trend in carbon dioxide and glacially induced removal of regolith, as explained in more detail in the article Mid-Pleistocene Transition.’ wiki

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    • #
      el gordo

      This brings us to Milankovitch, the 41,000 year cycles maybe related to excursions. It brought the Eemian Interglacial to an end, then around 82,000 years ago temperatures dropped even further and humanity walked out of Africa.

      51

    • #
      sophocles

      The Laschamp Event (41000 YA) was a full reversal, not just an “excursion.” The reversal lasted about 400 Y, before switching back, which is why it’s called an Excursion.

      The Earth’s magnetic field dropped to 5% of its normal value during the changeovers. I have read that it was very cold then. More so than the years before and the years after. Svenmark’s Theory offers a ready explanation.

      Reversals are associated with extinctions. Neanderthal Man did not survive the Laschamp Event.
      Have you ever wondered how/why the Neanderthals died out?
      Now you know.

      33,700 YA was the Lake Mungo excursion/reversal. The van Allen Belts are alleged to have touched the surface. Any surviving Neanderthals and the Dennisovans may have been polished off then. I know very little about the Mungo Excursion. I haven’t found much to read.

      There have been a couple of others since then, but I’ve found nothing about them. If you go looking, and find stuff, please post links! I’d be very grateful. :-)

      The Younger Dryas is thought to be an impact event. Impacts from Big Rocks from Space are also thought to cause a magnetic reversal/excursion. The hole for the Big Rock from Space has, maybe, been located. It may have been two. There certainly was a big extinction. The strike on the Greenland ice cap will have melted a lot of ice to create a flash flood. Flash frozen Mammoths with fresh food in their stomachs have been found.

      Another rock may have splashed down in the Mediterranean at the same time to create Noah’s Flood. Food supply all round would have been badly disrupted.

      More information
      Ben Davidson has set up https://magneticreversal.org/ — a website with more information.
      He has an interesting video too: with Radiant Creators with a lot more interesting information. You will find some of this quite disturbing.

      Slightly Off Topic:
      The Svensmark Effect is still used in Research, for research. From Turku University (Finland) comes:
      No Experimental Evidence for the Significant Anthropogenic Climate Change. J. Kauppinen and P. Malmi

      It references three other papers (refs [2], [3] & [4] in the paper). I’ve found [3] & [4] but have yet to read them. I’ve been able to get at only the Abstract of [2].

      Reference [4] Major Feedback Factors and Effects of The Cloud Cover and the Relative Humidity on the Climate. J. Kauppinen, and P. Malmi.

      Reference [3] Major Portions in Climate Change: Physical Approach J. Kauppinen, J. Heinonen, and P. Malmi.

      Enjoy your reading.
      While you’re reading, think on this:
      - nobody is doing any preparation for surviving the magnetic reversal.
      - declaring Climate Crises is a total distraction from something far less survivable.
      So when it comes, you’ll need the best of luck to make it through.

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      • #
        el gordo

        ‘Dennisovans may have been polished off then.’

        A break away movement reached New Guinea and Cape York.

        The Younger Dryas is still controversial but an asteroid disintegrating over north Africa and heading west seems reasonable. North America copped it sweet and appears to have exterminated the Clovis people. Also I remember reading that Greenland received bombardment, but didn’t cause flooding.

        Noah’s Ark probably came later, the Mediterranean would have fallen dramatically over the duration of the YD and rose again. A couple of thousand years all up, with people living productive lives around a fresh water lake teaming with fish. The rest is Biblical history, there was this spontaneous massive flood of very salty water.

        ‘The Laschamp Event (41000 YA) was a full reversal, not just an “excursion.” The reversal lasted about 400 Y, before switching back, which is why it’s called an Excursion.’

        Okay thanks for the clarity, I’ll follow it up.

        20

      • #
        el gordo

        Noah’s flood has been precisely dated to 8,400 BP.

        10

      • #
        el gordo

        There seems to be some confusion over the timing of these ‘aborted excursions’, not the full deal.

        https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0012821X9290167T

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        • #
          sophocles

          Look up the legend of Gilgamesh (Wikipedia has some good reading.)

          The flood story may have come out of Sumer and through Babylon as a history. The Israelites may have absorbed it during their sojourn in Babylon. There are items of that history adopted into the Noah flood.
          That there are so many flood fables indicates something big and bad happened somewhere. But when?

          Where histories are verbal, there is intense pressure to keep them straight, but it doesn’t always work. Much Israelite history was written down which relaxes the strictness of the verbal — stories, texts and writing were recreated in Babylon so the `history’ probably was polluted there.

          For the Younger Dryas, well, that’s a mess, with holes the Enterprise starship could warp through. “Left hand down a bit, Scotty. Steady as she goes …”

          The holes on under the ice on the Hiawatha Glacier have to be properly and carefully dated to be ruled in or out. If in, it may trigger sufficient funding to make a more thorough analysis possible. At the moment, it’s like Hancocks Half Hour — all over the place, with self-appointed experts and X-spurts, pseudo-archeologists, maybe some real archeologists, and interpreters of religious texts old and new, and more.

          The Taurids are alleged to be the stream of a large broken up comet. They will have to be radar mapped, thoroughly. At present there seems to be more fantasy than reality and some of the fantasy goes back several hundred years. Sheesh.
          I can quite understand some of those challenging `The Evidence’!

          O/T but interesting: It’s been hypothesized that 2019 will be a good year to check for a Taurid swarm that may even generate a concentration of daytime fireballs in June/July 2019. The Tunguska event may have been caused by a Beta Taurid. Rocks from Space … it’s 2019! And it’s early July!

          The Laschamp Event:
          is probably the most studied reversal: it’s dated to 41,400 YA +/- 2000 Years. It’s been corroborated from many sites around the globe. It’s well within the Auckland dating. The discrepancy could be just margin of error of the Auckland dating. Excursions/reversals produce large quantities of cosmogenic isotopes such as 10Be, 14C etc so some aspects of dating should be accurate.

          10

  • #
    pat

    o/t

    followup to comment #35 – Weekly Times’ articles – in Jo’s “Not the hottest” thread

    AUDIO: 20min58sec: 5 Jul: 2GB: Luke Grant: Jobs & farmers hung out to dry with Murray Darling Basin plan
    Luke Grants talks top Ed Gannon, Editor of the Weekly Times, about their exclusive story that a major part of the controversial Murray Darling Basin Plan was implemented on the back of a misleading premise.
    The Weekly Times reporter Peter Hunt reveals that one of the plan’s central scientific premises was based on a research finding that had been altered.
    https://www.2gb.com/podcast/jobs-farmers-hung-out-to-dry-with-murray-darling-basin-plan/

    VIDEO: 8min05sec: 3 Jul: 9 News A Current Affair: Murray Darling plan pushing desperate farmers to the brink
    by Sylvia Jeffreys
    Accusations of mismanagement and misleading science have dogged the Murray Darling Basin Authority and the evidence is piling up against them…
    The plan is a mess. It’s based on questionable science. And by failing to act, the federal government is allowing wealthy traders to reap enormous profits at the expense of farmers who can’t make ends meet…
    https://www.9news.com.au/national/drought-riverina-farmers-angry-at-water-allocations-under-murray-darling-basin-plan-news-new-south-wales/aec4568a-b4c2-4333-a2a8-5e55f5315039

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    • #
      Kinky Keith

      It’s good to have this info.

      20

    • #
      glen Michel

      Dams are like renewable energy: no input no output.I can’t undėrstand why people think that our systems are certain. Climate change is a given(nature) and all things are cyclic.More dams are not the answer. Sorry, but we we will have to look at the rate of extraction, particularly in the northern sector.

      11

  • #
    mem

    New paper https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.00165.pdf
    NO EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE FOR THE SIGNIFICANT
    ANTHROPOGENIC CLIMATE CHANGE
    J. KAUPPINEN AND P. MALMI
    Abstract. In this paper we will prove that GCM-models used in IPCC report
    AR5 fail to calculate the influences of the low cloud cover changes on the global
    temperature. That is why those models give a very small natural temperature
    change leaving a very large change for the contribution of the green house
    gases in the observed temperature. This is the reason why IPCC has to use a
    very large sensitivity to compensate a too small natural component. Further
    they have to leave out the strong negative feedback due to the clouds in order
    to magnify the sensitivity. In addition, this paper proves that the changes in
    the low cloud cover fraction practically control the global temperature.

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    • #
      Bill in Oz

      Ahhhh yes !
      “Settled science”
      From the folks who are not ‘consensus’ type folks
      In other words, “Real Scientists” !
      And skeptical !
      Three cheers for Science !

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  • #
    OriginalSteve

    And right at the end of the article is says “Want more science from across the ABC? ”

    Had to laugh….

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2019-07-05/climate-change-tree-planting-carbon-dioxide/11267556

    “Planting trees to reduce the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere seems like a no-brainer in the fight against climate change.

    “But until recently it’s not been clear how much land we’d need to make a tangible difference to warming, and whether we’d need to reclaim farm and residential land to do it.
    Key points:

    * Researchers identified 0.9 billion hectares of land that is available to be reforested
    That could buy us a 20 year pause in climate warming

    * Coastal ecosystems are capable of storing carbon up to 40 times faster than forests and should also be considered, expert says

    Now new research published today in Science estimates there’s enough suitable unused land on the globe for reforestation to store around 205 gigatonnes of carbon.

    “That’s enough to buy us about 20 years in the fight against climate change, according to researcher Jean-Francois Bastin from the Institute of Integrative Biology in Zurich.

    20 years into an imaginary crisis……its like dividing zero by any number…you still get zero….

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    • #
      Bill in Oz

      The ABC does not do science anymore Steve
      It does “Political Science”.
      Which is not a science at all.
      Just Politics and it’s ‘practicioners’.

      90

    • #
      pat

      OriginalSteve -

      no surprise theirABC has jumped on this story.

      How to erase 100 years of carbon emissions? Plant trees—lots of them.
      International-National Geographic – 6 hours ago

      Tree planting ‘has mind-blowing potential’ to tackle climate crisis
      In-Depth-The Guardian – 6 hours ago

      World could support many more trees, research shows
      Cosmos – 6 hours ago

      Massive Forest Restoration Could Greatly Slow Global Warming
      Scientific American – 7 hours ago

      Billions of extra trees may give us 20 years to tackle climate change
      New Scientist – 6 hours ago

      Planting a Trillion Trees May Be the Best Way to Fight Climate Change …
      TIME – 5 hours ago

      In best-case reforestation scenario, trees could remove most of the …
      PBS – 7 hours ago

      Trees could reduce carbon in the atmosphere to levels not seen in …
      LA Times – 7 hours ago

      Could Planting Tons of Trees Solve Climate Change?
      Discover Mag – 7h ago

      4 Jul: BBC: Climate change: Trees ‘most effective solution’ for warming
      By Matt McGrath
      Researchers say an area the size of the US is available for planting trees around the world, and this could have a dramatic impact on climate change…

      But other researchers say the new study is “too good to be true”…
      “Restoration of trees may be ‘among the most effective strategies’, but it is very far indeed from ‘the best climate change solution available,’ and a long way behind reducing fossil fuel emissions to net zero,” said Prof Myles Allen from the University of Oxford…

      Others are critical of the estimates of carbon that could be stored if these trees were planted.
      “The estimate that 900 million hectares restoration can store an addition 205 billion tonnes of carbon is too high and not supported by either previous studies or climate models,” said Prof Simon Lewis from University College London.
      “Planting trees to soak up two-thirds of the entire anthropogenic carbon burden to date sounds too good to be true. Probably because it is,” said Prof Martin Lukac from the University of Reading…
      “This far, humans have enhanced forest cover on a large scale only by shrinking their population size (Russia), increasing productivity of industrial agriculture (the West) or by direct order of an autocratic government (China). None of these activities look remotely feasible or sustainable at global scale.”…
      https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-48870920

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      • #
        Latus Dextro

        Sounds like the emplacement of an exit strategy.
        Someone at UNEP central along with a bevy of scientivism authorities will pronounce that it has been calculated that sufficient trees have now been planted and the climate crisis is now officially suspended.
        I doubt it will make a jot of significant difference to observable atmospheric COs levels let alone any temperature ‘anomaly’ given there has been a 15% increase in greening in the last 30 years, CO2 has risen in atmospheric concentration while essentially becoming an inconsequential player given spectral saturated. More important would seem the additional water vapour pumped into the atmosphere from transpiration and the reduction in albedo associated with increased greening.

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      • #
        Dave in the States

        But they are burning trees instead of coal in PPs.

        60

      • #
        AndyG55

        “Tree planting ‘has mind-blowing potential’ to tackle climate crisis”

        Amazing how often they are agreeing with Tony Abbott now they have got rid of him. ;-)

        140

      • #
        Bill in Oz

        Isn’t it amazing how all those independent media mobs
        All report the same news on the same day
        About how we can save the planet ?
        As an organic farmer & gardener
        Since 1977,
        I’ve planted literally a fe thousand trees
        And encouraged the natural germination
        Of tens of thousands of others.
        But I am called a “Denier” in all these same media mobs.
        Utter bloody dopey idiots !

        40

        • #
          sophocles

          Bill in OZ @13.2.4 said:

          Isn’t it amazing how all those independent media mobs all report the same news on the same day

          Nope. They’re synchronizing. There’s a period in September when they will ALL report the same climate fiction everywhere.
          Maybe they’ll create the biggest subscription cancellation ever seen …
          Hey! I can be an optimist, can’t I?

          20

    • #
      sophocles

      and it’s not clear how much water — if any — that land has available to irrigate such planted trees with.

      10

    • #
      Robdel

      Freeman Dyson has been advocating more tree planting for YEARS in order to get more CO2 absorption. Any agricultural/horticultural scientist has known this for a long time.

      20

  • #
    TdeF

    There are so many astronomical factors which can affect our weather in the short and long term, not counting asteriods wiping out everybody from time to time.

    However as retired Laser Physicist and mathematician Prof Weiss showed, the last 2,500 years including the tiny period of industrialization and fossil fuels consist of only two cycles. His Fourier analysis revealed these cycles and they just happen to be the very well known De Vries 250 years cycle and the 60 year PDO. As he said they are really simple results and great physics. At 13:38 you can see the excellent fit with just the 250 year sine wave. At 15:40 you can see the 65 year cycle which modifies it about +/-20%

    He was motivated by the lack of physics in Climate in the 90s and as a retired very senior scientist, he wanted to see what was real and what was ‘fairy tales’. This is the result of a group and two years of research. Spectral analysis of Climate Data. He found no discernible effect of human activity.

    From any direction, the whole Global Warming is fully explained. As with Occam’s razor, the simplest explanation is likely the right one. Consider also that the PDO is an induced ocean cycle, so there is really only one cycle, the long known De Vries cycle. As far as I can see, not only is there no effect of CO2 needed or correlation, the whole problem is solved, explained, over.

    Note the predicted and guaranteed steep decline in global temperatures just after 2020 of about 0.5C in 30 years, not that anyone will notice.

    Combined with the irrefutable evidence that there is almost no fossil fuel CO2 in the air after 120 years, it is truly amazing that this whole man made warming story continues. There is no scientific connection with CO2, just a hypothesis which enabled the founding of the IPCC, the UN Climate Change creation business.

    80

    • #
      sophocles

      Gleissberg and de Vries. solar cycles?

      Willi Dansgaard in Copenhagen, after completing his analysis of the Camp Century ice cores from Greenland,
      in 1969-1970 offered a long range weather — climate, rather — forecast:

      the climate will continue to grow colder during the 1970s and
      early 1980s; then it will become gradually warmer again so that by 2015
      we shall be back to where we were in 1960; — no better; and after that
      it will start becoming colder again. In short, the outlook for the next
      fifty years is decidedly chilly.

      So far, he is still accurate. That is far and away better and more accurate than
      anything from out of the IPCC. The IPCC should be ashamed of itself. Yes, 2015/2016
      was an El Nino. But so what?

      20

  • #
    pat

    not convinced “renewables” can do the job; spruiks nuclear:

    VIDEO: 2min26sec: 4 Jul: BBC: James Lovelock on the future of AI and climate change
    Once described as “the most important and original scientific thinker in the world”, James Lovelock is still a hugely influential environmental thinker – and he’s about to celebrate his 100th birthday.
    In the 1960s he was a campaigning eco-pioneer and now he’s a firm advocate of nuclear power.
    The BBC Today programme’s Mishal Husain went to meet him at his home, as his new book Novacene: The Coming Age of Hyperintelligence was published.
    https://www.bbc.com/news/av/science-environment-48858692/james-lovelock-on-the-future-of-ai-and-climate-change

    3 Jul: Reuters: China launches its longest extra-high voltage power line – Xinhua
    by Muyu Xu and Dominique Patton
    China’s has launched its longest extra-high voltage (EHV) power transmission line, connecting the far western region of Xinjiang and the eastern province of Anhui, state-backed Xinhua News reported on Tuesday.
    The project aims to help meet increasing power demand in industrialised eastern regions and reduce the amount of wasted electricity in the west.
    As part of Beijing’s anti-pollution campaign, new coal-fired power utilities have been banned in the smog-prone east of the country.

    The 3,324-km (2,065-mile) transmission line, with voltage of 1,100 Kilovolt (kV), is designed to transmit 66 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) of electricity a year, Xinhua reported…

    ***Most of the electricity transmitted via the line will come from the Zhundong coal-fired power plant in northern Xinjiang, which has installed power generation capacity of 28 gigawatts (GW)…
    https://uk.reuters.com/article/china-power-transmission/china-launches-its-longest-extra-high-voltage-power-line-xinhua

    30

  • #
    pat

    3 Jul: BusinessGreen: Johnson promises to ‘advance’ UK green agenda as Hunt warns of ‘tough’ net zero choices ahead
    by Michael Holdeer
    Boris Johnson has promised to “advance” Defra’s current policy programme if elected Prime Minister, as both he and leadership rival Jeremy Hunt sought to promote their environmental credentials at a meeting of influential Conservative MPs in Parliament yesterday evening.
    Appearing at the launch of the Conservative Environment Network’s (CEN) green manifesto, Johnson told MPs he wanted to see the Conservative Party “continuing to lead on the environment”, adding that the public “want to see us in the UK continuing to globally champion the cause”…
    https://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/3078360/johnson-promises-to-advance-uk-green-agenda-as-hunt-warns-of-tough-net-zero-choices-ahead

    3 Jul: Guardian: Tory MPs set out green manifesto urging more eco-friendly policies
    Fracking ban and new environment act among influential group’s suggestions
    by Fiona Harvey
    The Conservative Environment Network (CEN) set out a manifesto on Tuesday that they said must govern the UK’s policies to prevent climate catastrophe and allow for greener economic growth. Among the 41 MPs who signed up to the pledges, which include a call for a new environment act, are senior figures such as Sir Nicholas Soames, Sir Oliver Letwin, Greg Hands, Caroline Spelman, Richard Benyon and Zac Goldsmith.

    Both Tory leadership contenders, Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt, offered assurances that they supported the broad aims of giving government policy more environmental focus, but stopped short of explicitly endorsing all of the plans.
    The initiative spanned the Brexit divide…
    Support for onshore wind, though without subsidies, is among the pledges…READ ON
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jul/02/tory-mps-green-manifesto-urging-more-eco-friendly-policies

    20

  • #
    Ruairi

    The Earth’s magnetic shield,
    Will to powerful cosmic rays yield,
    Forming cooling-down clouds,
    On our planet like shrouds,
    More and more in a weak solar field.

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  • #
    pat

    TWEET: Michael E. Mann
    Incorrect claim going around that June was hottest month on record globally. It was hottest JUNE ever recorded (according to one data set; by 0.2C). July is the hottest month of the year for globe (more than 0.2C warmer than June).
    Hottest month on record remains July 2016.
    3 Jul 2019
    https://twitter.com/MichaelEMann/status/1146419878288666625

    Mann is tweeting out his appearance on PBS Newshour below:

    Youtube: 4min02sec: PBS Newshour: Why is it so hot in Europe?
    William Brangham reports
    An extreme heat wave is gripping much of Europe, breaking records and causing widespread misery. Temperatures soared well over 100 degrees Fahrenheit in France, Germany and Spain. While the heat is coming from sub-Saharan Africa, some researchers say climate change is exacerbating and prolonging it. They warn more record highs are likely–and along with them, more deaths.
    Comments are disabled for this video
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=61smwVyp8Iw

    4 Jul: Tony Heller: Climate Independence Day
    The US has had some some July 4ths, but none hotter than July 4, 1911. Thirty states were over 100 degrees, and all but one (Rhode Island) was over 90F…
    There was also a 70 day long heatwave in Paris that summer which killed more than 40,000 people. Compared to no reported heatwave related deaths in France this year…
    https://realclimatescience.com/2019/07/climate-independence-day/

    50

  • #
    pat

    4 Jul: NoTricksZone: 90 Leading Italian Scientists Sign Petition: CO2 Impact On Climate “UNJUSTIFIABLY EXAGGERATED” … Catastrophic Predictions “NOT REALISTIC”
    by P. Gosselin
    https://notrickszone.com/2019/07/04/90-leading-italian-scientists-sign-petition-co2-impact-on-climate-unjustifiably-exaggerated-catastrophic-predictions-not-realistic/

    60

  • #
    pat

    3 Jul: WUWT: Are the Russians in the Room Right Now?
    by charles the moderator
    The conspiracy theory that keeps on giving.
    There’s a new piece of rubbish article on Medium making the rounds, with a “new” analysis of Climategate pointing to those wascally Wussians, by Iggy Ostanin…
    (SCROLL DOWN)
    Stephen McIntyre of Climateaudit.org has gone on Twitter to shred this offal masquerading as investigative journalism…READ ON
    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/07/03/are-the-russians-in-the-room-right-now/

    30

  • #
    pat

    read on if you want the smearing:

    5 Jul: SMH: ‘Radical’ historian Blainey challenges climate-change orthodoxy
    By Tony Wright
    Australia’s best-known historian, Professor Geoffrey Blainey, has challenged the idea that the current level of climate change is either unique or largely the result of human behaviour.
    While agreeing the Earth was experiencing a warming period which had been under way for several decades, he said this in no way compared with much greater climate change in human history…
    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/radical-historian-blainey-challenges-climate-change-orthodoxy-20190705-p524e8.html

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    • #
      Peter C

      Professor Blainey’s opinion is worth more than all the other Uni academics put together.

      He gave an address at the sunday night chapel service at Queen’s college, University of Melbourne for Anzac day, reflecting on the contribution that the college members had made to WW1.

      Because I am a Wyvern (college alumni) myself, I went along with beth the serf as my guest. We both enjoyed listening to Geoffrey Blainey and then talking to him later over coffee.

      80

    • #
      MudCrab

      So… Our cultural and moral betters still denying the existence of Medieval, Roman and Minoan Warm Periods?

      30

  • #
    pat

    5 Jul: ABC: Virtual reality short film depicts possible life in Darwin after climate change takes hold
    By Emilia Terzon
    Beth Caird attended the launch of Storm Dog in Darwin this week and wore bulky goggles and headphones to view the artwork.
    “It’s just so incredible,” Ms Caird said while viewing the VR piece.
    “We’re in a thick mangrove forest. A little girl is looking for her dog walking across the cracked earth.”…

    Shot in 360-degree landscape, the virtual reality piece is designed to look and sound evocative.
    Yet the film’s creator, Caro Macdonald, said the place it is set — Darwin in the year 2049 — may not be so inviting…

    Charlie Ward from local community group Climate Action Darwin was an advisor on Storm Dog.
    “It’s so important because I think there’s almost a total vacuum of stories about climate change around the NT and the top end and Darwin,” he said…
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-05/virtual-reality-exhibition-climate-change-northern-territory/11281140

    12

    • #
      pat

      lengthy nonsense:

      5 Jul: ABC: What fallen civilisations can teach us about avoiding our own ‘social catastrophe’
      RN By Anna Kelsey-Sugg and Ian Coombe for Late Night Live
      Climate change a common thread between collapses
      (Dr. Luke Kemp, existential risk researcher at the University of Cambridge) says there’s an “eerie pattern” in which the rise and fall of civilisations map “quite clearly” onto variations in climate.
      “The very onset of civilisation didn’t happen until the Holocene, this kind of stable period of climate we now enjoy, which began roughly 12,000 years ago,” he says.
      “As humans we have been biologically capable of building civilisations for at least over 200,000 years. But we didn’t start doing it until the climate stabilised in the Holocene.”

      While a stable climate allowed civilisations to form, Dr Kemp says climate extremes since then have seen them fall, too…
      https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-05/what-we-can-learn-from-ancient-civilisations/11267702

      13

  • #
    Zane

    If it’s not carbon, it’s innocent:). To a green…

    40

  • #
    Travis T. Jones

    O/T:

    Radical historian Geoffrey Blainey marvels over climate change debate

    Blainey – Australia’s best-known and sometimes most controversial historian – is not known for slotting easily into one side of any debate, however.

    “Climate change is the most difficult and interesting intellectual argument of the last 100 years,” he declares.

    He once taught a Melbourne University class in climate history, and though he has no argument with the fact that Earth’s climate has been warming, he takes issue with the idea that it is a unique event and therefore requires a unique, modern explanation limited to human behaviour.

    “The great period of climate change in Australia’s human history was in Aboriginal times, when the seas rose and cut off Tasmania and cut off New Guinea from Australia,” he says.

    “You have to be very careful that you’ve got good explanations for the past as well as for the present.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/books/radical-historian-geoffrey-blainey-marvels-over-climate-change-debate-20190702-p523dg.html

    Quite so.

    Aboriginal Memories of Inundation of the Australian Coast Dating from More than 7000 Years Ago

    Stories are presented from 21 locations from every part of this coastline.

    In most instances it is plausible to assume that these stories refer to events that occurred more than about 7000 years ago, the approximate time at which the sea level reached its present level around Australia.

    http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00049182.2015.1077539

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  • #
    pat

    two amusing pieces:

    4 Jul: Irish Times: Fine Gael accused of ‘greenwashing’ as climate emergency Bill killed off
    Legislation would have made Ireland fifth country in world to ban oil, gas exploration
    by Kevin O’Sullivan, Jack Horgan-Jones
    The Cabinet has killed off a Bill aimed at banning oil and gas exploration in Irish waters, fearing an increase in dependence on imported fuels, a related rise in carbon emissions and costly legal actions from drilling companies.
    The Climate Emergency Bill, proposed by People Before Profit TD Bríd Smith, was passed by majority vote twice in the Dáil…

    ***The Bill won international support, including from singer Cher…READ ON
    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/fine-gael-accused-of-greenwashing-as-climate-emergency-bill-killed-off-1.3947046

    4 Jul: UK Express: Macron exposed as EU admits France has taken NO action on carbon border tax
    EMMANUEL Macron was today exposed as a fraud after the EU revealed they had seen absolutely no concrete action on carbon tax despite the French President’s virtue-signalling green rhetoric.
    By Kumail Jaffer
    Multiple sources within the EU say that he has made little real attempt to turn his rhetoric into reality.
    An anonymous EU source said: “Nothing concrete is on the table.”…

    Online newspaper EUObserver sent an ‘access to documents’ request to the EU Commission in May asking for all correspondence from the French government regarding a European carbon border tax over the last two years.
    It also asked for any records which hinted at the French position about such measures.
    But the EU Commission directorate-general said there were no documents that matched the description…READ ON
    https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1149157/macron-france-climate-change-eu-france-carbon-border-tax-spt

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  • #
    Bill in Oz

    Meanwhile on the ABC news, film maker Caro Macdonald,
    Gets plaudits for her science fantasy effort about Darwin in 2049
    After an imagined climate change has set to work.
    Funny how al these artistic folks are reaping plaudits and cash though
    Presenting such fantasies to the world
    And claiming that they are factual.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-05/virtual-reality-exhibition-climate-change-northern-territory/11281140

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  • #
    Bruce Donaldson Scott

    Thank you Jo, for some more sanity.

    50

  • #
    William Palmer

    From space, enclose the earth with four satellites in a tetrahedron. repeatedly measure the Bond albedo [all frequencies] Compare it with percentage of cloud cover (defined as clouds sufficient to block LWR from surface. LWR from surface has its own spectrum). Correlation over months of observation is going to give us an idea of magnitude of cloud effect on greenhouse gas warming.

    00

  • #
    William Palmer

    From space, enclose the earth with four satellites in a tetrahedron. repeatedly measure the Bond albedo [all frequencies] Compare it with percentage of cloud cover (defined as clouds sufficient to block LWR from surface. LWR from surface has its own spectrum). Correlation over months of observation is going to give us an idea of magnitude of cloud effect on greenhouse gas warming.

    00