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Save the children, save the environment

UPDATE: This beautiful graphic doesn’t show on the home page in some browsers. Click to open the post.

Best way to protect the environment? Save the children. Cheap energy and clean water go a long way…

h/t @mattridley

When babies are at high risk of dying prematurely, parents respond by having lots of kids. Once medical conditions improve and infant mortality goes down parents have fewer kids. Overpopulation is solved by improving healthcare. Source: https://t.co/GLzfzzZ8KL pic.twitter.com/oeM4ofXCXe

— Simon Kuestenmacher (@simongerman600) June 6, 2019

 

 

The original creator was Robert Wilson‏ @countcarbon May 14 who went on to split the regions:

 

The data in the cool graphics come from GapMinder. Love those graphics!

So what will it be? On the one hand some predict the global population will level and start to decline this century. See Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline  by John Ibbitson and Darrell Bricker. They argue the global population is headed for a steep decline—and in many countries, that decline has already begun. Sounds interesting. Robert Wilson @countcarbon says fertility rates in Africa are coming down.

But all estimates hinge on how long it takes Africa to catch up in that demographic transition

The Hoover Institution warns:  Forecasting of Africa’s demographic trajectory based on expectations that it would follow the pattern of other regions has thus been badly misleading. …As can readily be seen, the UN fertility projections, based on analyzing the pattern of fertility decline in other developing regions, anticipated fertility reductions of .5 to 1 child per woman more than was actually observed. As the slow fertility decline in Africa continues to confound expectations, the adjustments to population projections can be dramatic.

United Nations’ World Population Prospects 2017

Exponential curves can be so persnickety. There are very different futures contained within the uncertainties.

PS: The outlier in the top graphic is apparently Barbados. At least that’s what someone said on twitter…

h/t Patrick H

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Save the children, save the environment, 10.0 out of 10 based on 29 ratings

81 comments to Save the children, save the environment

  • #

    When populations get out of control, nature has many ways to fix it. Among them are predetors, pestilence, drought, and famine. And of course there’s man’s efforts including war, Agenda 21 and spreading the fear of CO2.

    190

    • #
      WXcycles

      You forgot wind mills and solar panels.

      60

      • #
        Dennis

        Wind turbines: 45 wind farms x 67 turbines each providing 42 MW capacity factor (140 MW nameplate) to duplicate Liddell coal fired power station 1,900 MW capacity factor (2,000 MW nameplate), each on 15,000 acres of land, and then add firming costs including feeder transmission lines to the main electricity grid.

        Coal fired power station (HELE) providing an accountable working life of 50 years and capable of 80 years or more working life.

        So wind turbines average working life 20 years, therefore replace 1.5 times during the coal fired power station working life.

        Cost effective? No way.

        130

    • #
      Bill in Oz

      In many countries on Earth, there is lots of poverty & no aged pension or superannuation.
      And thus no security when old.
      The ‘solution’ is to have lots of kids, even if some of them die when young,
      Because the kids then support the parents when old.
      I know this personally from my experience in the Philippines.
      Where the population has grown from ~ 26 million in 1970 to over 105 million now.
      And that is now a huge burden to feed, clothe, house and scare for.
      But the Philippines is just one example.
      The same problem is common in many countries especially Africa and the Middle east and South America.
      And to be frank, this is a ‘problem’ for those countries.
      It is not our problem for us here in Australians to solve.
      We have our own issues and problems to deal with with out importing a whole lot of others as well.

      131

    • #
      theRealUniverse

      Yep, educate them on ‘climate change’ and all problems will go away. Take away reliable energy, fill Africa with windmills and solar..

      50

  • #
    mf

    a small correction is required to this article:

    when childhood mortality within a culture drops suddenly, through well intentioned intervention of a more advanced culture, the population of the so affected culture begins to grow exponentially. This is what has happened in the last ~70 years in what was called the third world. Entrenched cultures which evolved to function under conditions of high childhood mortality collided with the reality of rapidly decreasing childhood mortality. Big difference with respect to saying “not to worry, human ingenuity always wins”. Perhaps it will win again, but we better worry, realize where we are at, and focus on making it work.

    Current production of oil would have to quadruple if we wanted to bring the entire world to North American consumption per capita, and “only” double if we chose EU consumption as a reference. Big problem, in my opinion.

    103

    • #
      el gordo

      Australia can take large numbers, its a huge empty space. It could be dotted with villages, supported by wind and solar farms, and Chinese market gardens as far as the eye can see.

      510

      • #
        Dennis

        The new New Holland?

        50

        • #
          Bill in Oz

          A New Human dump more likely !

          Not a good idea for us or for Australia or for the Australian environment either.

          70

          • #
            el gordo

            The best brains from China and India can be easily assimilated into an upwardly mobile middle class, but we’ll need bullet trains and satellite cities to make a smooth transition. Decentralisation is the key to getting the economy moving.

            The government has to do something big in infrastructure or the Reserve will start printing money.

            Also, the environment is safe when you have an intelligent middle class population and democracy.

            11

      • #
        Bill in Oz

        Australia cannot E G
        People from Africa or the Philippines or India, etc don’t want to live in the empty desert regions of Oz
        They want to live and enjoy the benefits of living in the big cities
        On the coast with decent climate
        And decent opportunities for a good life.

        40

        • #
          el gordo

          Then the locals will have to abandon the old cities to the flood of new immigrants.

          http://statisticstimes.com/demographics/china-vs-india-population.php

          55

          • #
            Bill in Oz

            No ‘have to’ about it E G.
            Any Aussie government that allows or encourages such migration & causes such problems
            Thoroughly deserves a lick up the butt with a steel capped boot
            From us Australians.

            100

            • #
              el gordo

              Both majors support mass immigration.

              52

              • #
                Bill in Oz

                One major the ALP wants more refugees, more migrants, more elderly parents of migrants and more students paying to live & study here…They got knocked back on May 18.

                Their side kick the Greens wants lots more refugees and open borders, plus lost more migrants from anywhere whatever their cultural background, their skills or work experience or education.

                The Coalition has decided to reduce the number of permanent migrants allowed each year to 160,000 and maintain the focus on skills and education…

                I’m not happy with the big total, but the Coalition proposals are far better than the ALP & Greens

                70

      • #
      • #
        Adaminaby Angler

        What on Earth are you smoking on, El Gordo?!

        The Aussie way of life—and the Aussie environment—is not rife for the taking; the Outback must be preserved. Unlike the “Greens” (i.e. Watermelons), we rural folk actually care for the environment.

        30

        • #
          el gordo

          ‘…the Outback must be preserved.’

          Small pockets should be preserved, sacred sites or species extinction threat, but apart from that its just empty useless desert. Terra nullius.

          11

          • #
            Bill in Oz

            The only parts of India & China ( or Africa ) which are empty are the deserts EG
            They don’t want to live in their own deserts.
            So why will they want to come live in ours ?
            I have the feeling you are just Shite stirring EG.

            10

  • #
    Kinky Keith

    This assessment looks from the outside of the issue without considering the ground up picture too much at all.

    Look at how Europe has changed in the last 10 years.

    I’d suspect that the fertility rate for Europe has fallen because of the instability, uncertainty and fear that has resulted from inexplicable “migration”.

    Migration doesn’t solve the basic problem from which the “migrants” are coming: national war and collapse, and the only organisation with the moral authority to fix such problems is the U.N.
    Taking millions of “migrants” from dysfunctional nations and dropping them on Europe is crazy because it is unsustainable.

    For sustainability the social issues that drive a nation to collapse must be dealt with in that country and by the people of that country. The U.N. should be overseeing national structure.

    When the people of poor dysfunctional countries have only one ambition, to “migrate” to a fully functional country, there’s only one end to that: Chaos and Yellow Vests.

    National growth is a multigenerational process and the quick fix of “integrating” hordes of “migrants” is just another elitist political imposition on stable populations.

    KK

    192

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      All the evidence appears to point to chaos being the preferred outcome for the current mass migration into europe recently.

      The NWO mob have a motto “From Chaos, order” – but first you need to create chaos…..see my point above.

      Problem-reaction-solution ( Helegian Dialectic ) in operation.

      And of course, the “Solutions” always involve more control & loss of liberties.

      Once you look at it through the right lens, it has a discernible pattern to it.

      The NWO mob seem to be “priming the pump” for a global clash of civilizations. People in the know understand this and are preparing.

      140

    • #
      ivan

      KK, while I agree with most of what you say, I totally disagree with any role for the UN. The UN is an organisation that has outlived its usefulness and overstepped its charter by trying to be the head of a one world government – you need to read its political manifesto as set out in Agenda 21 and Agenda 30.

      It is the UN that is responsible for the lack of cheap power and clean water in Sub-Saharan Africa through their instance, via the IPPC, of this stupid scam that is global warming. climate change climate catastrophe, or whatever the latest scary name is.

      The idea of encouraging migrants from Sub-Saharan Africa to go to Europe is two fold. 1) it breaks down the national identity of the people in the European countries and 2) it gives the NWO a receptive audience for their regime as well as killing any opposition from the old nations.

      240

      • #
        Kinky Keith

        Ivan,

        totally agree with you.

        Obviously with the U.N. so busy combating the Climate Change catastrophe they don’t have time to remove dictatorships and mass murderers.

        I would prefer that Australia exit the U.N. ASAP and focus on internal structural issues.

        Australia needs to return to being a Fairer country with Social security recipients picking up a “Fairer” share of the work load.

        KK

        90

    • #
      WXcycles

      The U.N. should be overseeing national structure.

      Central control of governments from New York? As opposed to local national governments, KK?

      Absolutely no thanks mate.

      If the local govt is corrupt and incapable what makes anyone think the UN would do a better job when they also have the same and much worse issues, plus are infamously known parasites with anti-democratic totalitarian tendencies, plus have no skin in the game, and also no accountability to the locals?

      May as well lobby to put the EU in control of the planet, as they would be just as valid and just as ‘good’ at it – same outcome either way.

      130

      • #
        Kinky Keith

        WX,

        I think that the point I put about the U.N. Was done with tongue in cheek and a little bit of sarcasm.

        In a perfect world.

        I guess my main point was, if the U.N. can’t sort out dictatorships the sum total of the world’s misery is just going to increase under the present “migration” arrangement
        and the situation needs a rethink.
        KK

        51

  • #
    OriginalSteve

    Interestingly, population growth decreases as standard of living increases, or put another way – as you are less likely to lose some of your kids to malnourishment/ disease/ accidents/ wars/ local thugs, you have less kids.

    If you took every person currently on the planet, and gave them a 10′ x 10′ ( 3m x 3m ) bit of ground, you can fit them all into our state of NSW…..and now the rest of the planet is completely empty of people. It puts it in perspective.

    https://overpopulationisamyth.com/

    The other issue ( which is less known ) is that NWO people appear to consider darker skinned people as inferior. This is probably why they are freaking out over population growth in africa. So whats the best way to slow that? Energy restrictions. But they seem blind to my point above about standard of living and population…..but then myopic lunatic green religious dogma will do that to you….

    110

    • #

      It would be nice to create a graph from Gapminder which showed population growth against GDP per capita (or equivalent).

      Anyone game to try? There is a fantastic amount of data on that site, but I don’t have time to learn how to use it.

      70

    • #
      Peter Fitzroy

      you might want to look at this
      https://ourworldindata.org/economic-growth
      It has GPD, Population, and per capita graphs

      00

    • #
      czechlist

      I submit another result of a higher standard of living is an increase in diversions other than sexual activities.
      If you are stuck in a mud hut without power there are few amusements.

      10

  • #
    Another Ian

    O/T And you can’t blame the livestock

    “Study: Cattle Methane is a moooot point in global climate”

    ““…there is no scientific evidence, whatsoever, that domestic livestock could represent a risk for the Earth’s climate” and the “warming potential of anthropogenic GHG [greenhouse gas] emissions has been exaggerated.” ”

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/06/12/study-cattle-methane-is-a-moooot-point-in-global-climate/

    80

  • #
    a happy little debunker

    It is all about the economic conditions that the parents live within (and the subsequent medical conditions) – rather than the mortality of the children.

    In subsistence cultures the more children you have – the more likely to have someone to care for you in your dotage.

    In our western society that role has been (economically and medically) assumed by the state.

    110

  • #
    Travis T. Jones

    Obama: ‘The Planet Will Boil Over’ If Africans Are Allowed Cars and Air Conditioning

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fBE0RKbRbl4

    That oughta keep the population levels down, Barack.

    60

  • #
    yarpos

    That graph doesnt bode well for African States perpetually having their hands out to the West to solve their problems. Perhaps they can use their 10′s of thousands of years of culture and lean on their neighbours for the solutions.

    100

  • #
    Maptram

    Obviously the authors of the studies didn’t read the list of 80 ways to reduce CO2 emissions that was put up a month or two ago. #6 was educating girls and #7 was family planning. The logic was that educated girls have fewer babies and the babies they have live longer. Family planning was about access to high-quality family planning that would have powerful positive impacts on the health, welfare, and life expectancy of both women and their children.

    50

  • #
    Peter Fitzroy

    You the same strategies in biology. What we commonly call weeds, which have a short lifespan, use the aforementioned have a lot of offspring, some will survive. Others, like eucalyptus tend to the less offspring, but longer life approach. Animals also tend to follow one of the two options, although carnivores (eg tigers, tasmanian devils) will tend to have less, while herbivores (rabbits) will have more. So it makes sense from that standpoint.

    50

  • #
    joseph

    Western education’s “genderlessness” is probably the solution.

    30

  • #
    pattoh

    Gee, I’ll bet the real estate agents in Melbourne would be licking their lips at that graph!

    /sarc.

    40

  • #
    pat

    save the farmers?

    VIDEO: 2min38sec: 12 Jun: 9News: Investment companies on notice for selling water to struggling farmers
    by Chris OKeefe, Federal Political Reporter
    Investment companies making “ridiculous” profits from selling water to struggling farmers are on notice, as the Federal Government considers shutting them down…
    Duxton Water reported an increase of 288 per cent in gross profit to December 2018, to record a $15.5 million windfall.
    The company owns entitlements and allocations to 69,700 megalitres of water in the southern Murray Darling Basin, but has no land to use it on.

    The company told the ASX its “primary objective” is to “generate annual income through capitalising on the increasing demand for scarce water resources”.
    The company’s Director of Water Assets Alister Walsh told an investor website that Duxton is “invested in the accounting of water”…
    Federal Water Minister David Littleproud said it’s the government’s “responsibility to act” if the competition watchdog concludes commercial water speculators are driving up prices…
    Farmers are furious at the companies who they believe are artificially inflating the price of water, while they are financially crippled…READ ALL
    https://www.9news.com.au/national/investment-companies-selling-water-to-struggling-farmers-put-on-notice-by-federal-government/d8bfcdd3-e1c9-49d3-9d97-f2c6f2ad6821

    20

    • #
      pat

      I recently posted ***Erin O’Donnell on ABC’s Blueprint for Living – Water for Thirsty Cities – saying no dams can be built in Australia:

      2 Dec 2016: TheConversation: Investors and speculators aren’t disrupting the water markets
      Authors:
      Erin O’Donnell, Senior Fellow, Centre for Resources, Energy and Environment Law, University of Melbourne
      Adam James Loch, Senior Lecturer / DECRA Fellow, University of Adelaide
      Disclosure statement
      ***Erin O’Donnell is currently completing her PhD and receives funding in the form of an Australian Postgraduate Award.
      Adam James Loch receives funding from the Australian Research Council under a Discovery project (DP140103946) and a DECRA Fellowship (DE150100328). He is also currently funded by UNESCO to examine the usefulness of water markets in various global contexts. Adam is affiliated with the Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society as the President of the South Australian branch.

      For over a decade, Australian state and federal governments have used water markets to manage water resources. Although there remains room for improvement in terms of environmental outcomes, water accounting accuracy, and managing social impacts, these markets are very successful at achieving efficient, flexible water transfers between users.
      These markets are also huge – the estimated total value of water entitlements in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) was over $A11.5 billion in 2015-16. The sheer size of the markets has led investors to join the fray.

      But there is now rising concern about investors in water markets. Will speculation drive up water prices, pricing out farmers? Do investment firms take water away from irrigators, or the environment? Is speculation impacting water resource management in the MDB?
      The data shows these fears to be overblown…

      The concerns are unwarranted
      According to the data, speculation is neither affecting water prices, nor driving significant changes in the way water is used…
      http://theconversation.com/investors-and-speculators-arent-disrupting-the-water-markets-69492

      27 Jun 2016: The Conversation: Rush to dam northern Australia comes at the expense of sustainability
      Authors:
      Barry Hart, Emeritus Professor Water Science, Monash University
      Avril Horne, Research fellow, Department of Infrastructure Engineering, University of Melbourne
      ***Erin O’Donnell, Senior Fellow, Centre for Resources, Energy and Environment Law, University of Melbourne
      Ahead of the election, the major parties have released different visions for developing northern Australia. The Coalition has committed to dam projects across Queensland…

      The white paper for northern Australia focuses almost solely on driving growth and development. Current water resource management policy in Australia, however, emphasises integrated water resource planning and sustainable water use that protects key ecosystem functions…

      Focusing on new dams applies 19th-century thinking to a 21st-century problem, and we have three major concerns about the rush to build dams in northern Australia…
      https://theconversation.com/rush-to-dam-northern-australia-comes-at-the-expense-of-sustainability-61566

      all this leaves one to wonder if the creeping privatisation of our water might be an impediment to the development of a Bradfield 2.0 scheme to bring water to the most drought-prone regions of Australia.

      20

  • #
    TdeF

    Leftists in Washington demanding action on ‘Climate Change’.

    “[For] those who died in [Hurricane] Sandy, or Katrina, or Harvey, or Irma, or because of [the] Paradise [fire], or because of California, or the farmers, or all around this country who have died because of climate change — do respect for them and hold a damn climate debate!”

    So every disaster in US history is due to man made CO2 and the US government alone refusing to spend $10Trillion to fix the problem. As if one country, acting alone can fix the problem. That does not even make sense. Under ‘Paris’ China has refused to do anything at all until 2030 and every year their increased generation of CO2 matches Australia’s entire output. They will stop growing CO2 only when they have peaked. Some deal! Plus India, Russia,…

    Anyway, it raises the question of why only ‘Leftists’ associate all US weather related disasters with poor government? Even bushfires, which are endemic with gum tree populations, are the fault of conservative government. It’s all so obviously lunatic that you wonder why it is the battle cry of the Left. It has certainly lost traction in Queensland. Only a cyclone can save Labor and the Greens.

    90

    • #
      TdeF

      It looks like since there has been no warming in 20 years, that the extreme left are dictating a policy of all out panic. Loudspeakers, student strikes at primary school, childrens’ marches and inspiring distraught 14 year old girls to lecture governments. And 24 year old congresswoman Ocasio Cortez. The world is ending. Do something. Fast. Save the planet!

      Any pretence of “The Science” of Global Warming is gone. As for mysterious Climate Change, it is undefined but scary. Then Extreme Events was supported allegedly by the same failed Warming models, although nobody explained how. And the Polar bears are fine.

      So this is the last throw of the dice. Get out the primary school children who have been indoctrinated. More people in Polar bear suits. Vanishing species. American Bald Headed Eagles sliced in their hundreds by useless windmills are just collateral damage. It’s all about the future and the children and the children’s children and the destruction of conservative governments and the installation of communist leadership, like Jeremy Corbyn and Albanese and Ocasio Cortez and Manduro and Castro.

      Then they can do what China, Russia, India and most of the world do about so called carbon pollution. Absolutely nothing. There never was a problem and they know it. Or you could ask college footballer Al Gore about science, not that he understands any.

      100

  • #
    Alice Thermopolis

    “On the one hand some predict the global population will level and start to decline this century. See Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline by John Ibbitson and Darrell Bricker. They argue the global population is headed for a steep decline—and in many countries, that decline has already begun. Sounds interesting.”

    Don’t forget demographic momentum. Two centuries ago, the world population was only about one billion when Malthus published his books on the subject.

    The current global population of 7.3 billion is actually still increasing by 83 million a year, despite declining birth rates in many countries, mostly in the developed world.

    It will reach 8.5 billion by 2030, 9.7 billion by 2050 and 11.2 billion by 2100, assuming the UN Population Division’s medium variant projection (2015) is accurate.

    If, however, a higher growth rate prevails this century – with an increase in average fertility of just 0.50 children per woman – it would reach 16.6 billion people by 2100, assuming another global doubling is supportable. In this scenario, India would have 2.6 billion and China 1.6 billion people.

    India – with just 250 million people in 1950 – will overtake China as the most populous country soon with 1.4 billion. Meanwhile, Africa’s population will double in the next 35 years. By 2100, almost 40 percent of humankind will live on this one continent.

    Projecting fertility rates is a tricky business, especially in the developing world. Best to err on the side of caution. Ibbitson and Bricker, however, prefer to err on the side of optimism.

    30

    • #
      Lance

      Prognostications regarding fertility rates is mathematical masturbation.

      Get real. Harden your borders or go limp as a nation.

      Simple enough.

      40

    • #
      Graeme#4

      The rate of global population growth is actually slowing down.

      00

  • #
    Lance

    On the issue of immigration, please take notice of the Quadrant article from 2011, “How To Choose Better Immigrants”. Written by an immigrant.

    https://quadrant.org.au/magazine/2011/1/how-to-choose-better-immigrants/

    “When we came to Australia, we learned two simple rules Australians apply to all newcomers.

    The first rule: Welcome. Have a beer, mate. But leave your troubles where you came from, don’t bring them here.

    The second rule: You say you can do it. We believe you. Now show us. ”

    Illuminating, eh?

    80

  • #
    pat

    I’m not advocating for this particular coal-fired plant, but am noting MSM campaign against it, particularly on BBC:

    12 Jun: BBC: Anti-coal protest in Kenya’s capital
    by Ferdinand Omondi, BBC Africa, Nairobi
    Kenyan environmental activists took to the streets of the centre of the capital, Nairobi, to protest against the construction of a coal-fired power station in the coastal region of Lamu.
    At least ***two thirds of Kenya’s electricity is currently generated by renewable resources and it has pledged to reduce its small carbon footprint by nearly a third over the next decade.
    Activists fear that the coal plant may damage that commitment…

    They also had two black coffins marked with the words “coal kills”, which they left at the entrance to the energy ministry offices
    In a statement circulated at the protest, the Pan-African Climate Justice Alliance called the Lamu plant both “economically and ecologically disastrous”.
    The government is not commenting on the issue before the result of a court case is announced challenging the operation of the plant…
    https://www.bbc.com/news/topics/c40rjmqdlzzt/kenya

    in an another BBC World Sce radio piece today on this small, activist protest, ***Omar Elmawi was quoted, but not his organisation – see below:

    12 Jun: AFP: Kenyans protest bid to build East Africa’s first coal plant
    Scores of Kenyans on Wednesday protested a project to build a coal power station near the Lamu archipelago, a popular tourist spot that includes a UNESCO World Heritage site and vibrant marine life…
    A group of about 200 protesters carrying black coffins emblazoned with white skulls, as well as a miniature chimney spewing smoke, marched through downtown Nairobi on Wednesday chanting “coal is poisonous!”
    “There is no need to build centralised dirty sources of energy such as coal to answer Kenya’s energy demands, especially when the country is taking the lead in Africa with an ***85-percent renewable energy base,” said deCOALonize Campaign Coordinator, ***Omar Elmawi.
    “With access to wind, solar, geo-thermal and tidal energy sources, Kenya’s renewable energy potential is cost-efficient and causes no harm to the people and environment.”

    Campaigners argue the project is a costly and damaging venture that makes little sense at a time when most of the world is turning away from coal plants and investing in increasingly ***cheaper renewable energies.
    “Countries are divesting away from coal and even China is moving away from coal investment towards renewable energy,” Greenpeace representative Fredrick Njehu told AFP…

    However the government sees it as a way to spur economic growth, create jobs, and ensure Kenya’s energy supply in the future…READ ALL
    https://www.afp.com/en/news/826/kenyans-protest-bid-build-east-africas-first-coal-plant-doc-1hg0i01

    Wikipedia: Renewable energy in Kenya
    Connectivity to the national grid in Kenya currently stands at 28%. In 2011, Kenya was also the first country in Africa to open a carbon exchange…
    Currently geothermal energy accounts for 20% of total installed capacity of the Kenyan grid…
    Hydro Power accounts for 49.7% of Kenya’s energy needs…
    Kenyans are a world leader in the number of solar power systems installed per capita (no figures)…
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy_in_Kenya

    Wikipedia: Wind power in Kenya
    Wind power in Kenya contributes only a small amount of the country’s electrical power…
    Kenya has one major wind farm, Ngong Hills Wind Farm, located in Ngong, Kajiado County. It produces around 5.1 MW of electricity…
    Kenya is building the largest wind farm in Africa, the Lake Turkana Wind Power consortium (LTWP). It aims to provide 300 MW of low-cost electrical power. With a projected cost of KES 70 billion (USD 800 million), it would be the largest single private investment in Kenya’s history…

    20

    • #
      pat

      Kenya has two thirds RE; 85 percent RE? all very deceptive, surely.

      pro-RE, but some figures missing from MSM reports:

      30 Mar: CleanTechnica: The Best Summary Of Kenya Renewable Energy (& Dirty Energy) You Can Find
      by David Zarembka
      I do not need to feel guilty about contributing to global warming when my grandchildren turn on the TV to watch cartoons. This is because I live in rural, western Kenya, where 87% of the electricity is from renewal sources — the nirvana of Green Deal activists.
      With a population of almost 50 million (one-seventh the size of the US population), electricity capacity is only 2370 MW and peak demand is only 1770 MW. The average Kenyan consumes only 167 kWh of electricity per year. Kenyans also contribute only 0.03 percent of worldwide carbon admission to the atmosphere each year, equal to about 1 percent of what each American contributes.
      It is useful to study the sources of electricity in Kenya to see how this renewable rate is achieved…READ ON
      https://cleantechnica.com/2019/03/30/the-best-summary-of-kenya-renewable-energy-dirty-energy-you-can-find/

      12 Jun: BusinessDailyAfrica: Kenya signs another Sh4.7 billion loan from World Bank
      By ANNIE NJANJA
      The World Bank has advanced Kenya a Sh4.7 billion loan for funding of solar power projects and provision of clean cooking stoves in 14 marginalised counties.
      The debt, under the Kenya-Off-Grid Solar Access Project (Kosap), constitutes of Sh4.2 billion for solar projects to help install solar home systems in the 14 targeted counties.
      Sh500 million will be used for buying clean cooking stoves for 1.3 million people in 277,000 households…
      The loan adds to Kenya’s piling public debt problem, which has recently come into focus as revenue collection by the taxman failed to keep up with the growing repayment obligations…
      “The country has made great strides in achieving connectivity with access to electricity standing at 75 percent through both grid and off-grid options. However, access to electricity is low in the 14 marginalised counties, which represent 72 percent of the country’s total land area and 20 percent of the population. The dispersed settlements in the marginalised counties make off-grid solutions the only viable alternative for access to electricity,” said Ministry of Energy Principal Secretary Joseph Njoroge in a statement yesterday…
      https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/Kenya-signs-another-Sh4-billion-loan/539546-5154338-156ggrg/index.html

      12 Jun: CapitalFM Kenya: Greenpeace Africa and partners demand a stop to coal investments in Kenya
      Communities from Lamu and Kitui together with Greenpeace Africa and members of the deCOALonize coalition have today handed over letters to the Ministry of Energy and the Chinese Embassy.
      The letters are calling on the Cabinet secretary, Charles Keter and Chinese corporations to stop investing in Lamu and Kitui coal projects and instead invest in renewable energy…
      “There is no need to build centralized dirty sources of energy such as coal to answer to Kenya’s energy demands especially when the country is taking the lead in Africa with ***85% renewable energy base. With access to wind, solar, geo-thermal and tidal energy sources, Kenya’s renewable energy potential is cost efficient and causes no harm to the people and environment,” said deCOALonize Campaign Coordinator, Omar Elmawi…
      Climate crisis remains one of the biggest challenges facing humankind. Throughout the world, countries including China – directly linked to the project – are divesting from coal.
      “Climate crisis has crippling effects to developing economies; fossils fuels such as coal exacerbates these effects. Kenya cannot afford to ignore this anymore. It’s time to quit plans for dirty, highly polluting coal and invest in renewable energy,” said Greenpeace Africa’s Senior Political Advisor, Frederick Njehu…
      ***Kenya’s president has committed to 100% renewable energy by 2020…

      11 Jun: Bloomberg: Kenya Coal Plant’s Power Could Cost 10 Times More Than Suggested, Group says
      By David Herbling
      Electricity from a planned coal-fired plant in Lamu, Kenya might cost 10 times as much as its developers suggest, according to an energy group that wants the project canceled.
      The plant, which will require an estimated $2 billion investment, is projected to be able to produce 1,050 megawatts of electricity. The project is 51% owned by Nairobi-based Centum Investment co., and is backed by General Electric Co.’s so-called Ultra-Supercritical Clean Coal Technology…
      The coal plant could also slow the East African nation’s development of renewable energy resources, IEEFA, as the group is known, said…

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        Lance

        A simple analysis of developed nations will reveal that, in the large, the petroleum usage is about 66% transportation. One barrel, 42 US Gallons, is equivalent to 1.74 MWh of energy. For the US, UK, and AU, about 85% of their respective grid capacity is required to charge EVs on a 24 hr basis.

        If the charge time is reduced to a 6 hr interval, then approx 400% of the existing grid capacity is needed. Additionally, a tripling of normal utility costs is to be expected to pay for the grid capacity utilization over the other 18 hours where it is being under utilized.

        If the US grid is an average model, with gas, coal, nuclear, hydro, wind, and solar, components, and having a capacity of 1039 GW capacity, and a value of some 5 Trillion USD, then the maths become clear.

        One may scale these costs. Grids cost about 5 Billion USD / GW. 56% of this is generation, 35% is distribution, and 9% is transmission costs.

        So, the cost to go “net zero carbon”, regardless of how one generates the energy, will cost 2.2 Billion USD / GW in transmission and distribution costs. This is an inescapable fact.

        Generating power from Wind (30% capacity factor) and solar (20% capacity factor), Avg of 25% Capacity factor, means that to go non carbon, a grid needs 4 times the additional capacity to overcome the intermittency of non reliable generation, and several times the known world resources of silver and rare earths.

        So tell me. How will this be done?

        If one goes Nuclear, transuranic fuel cycle, (uranium), there is only one place in the world that makes the single casting pressure vessel for those reactors, and it is limited to 11 per year (Japan). It takes one casting per GW reactor. So, the US needs the next 400 years of production, AU and UK need the next 100 years of production, and Kenya is exactly where? Maybe 700 years from now?

        That which cannot be done, will not be done.
        That which cannot be paid, will not be paid.

        QED.

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      Lance

      Activists in Kenya are welcome to their fantasies.

      It isn’t clear that Kenyans, in general, have the education to understand that they are killing themselves.

      Darwin Awards exist because of human stupidity. Can’t change that. It is devolution of the dumbest.

      Lowering the global birth rate is heralded by liberals as a good thing. Onward, Kenyan Stupid.

      Sarc off.

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        Chad

        I Know i should not say this out loud but i am MAD AS HELL.
        I have lived and worked in African countries, and my offspring currently works there trying to help them save themselves
        Anyone who thinks ANY African country, or State, has anything to teach the rest of us…..needs serious psychological help.
        The whole freekin continent is a basket case of slowly decaying infrastructure and social standards. Every time they are allowed (or seize) control of their own countries , they Frock it up and resort to basic tribal infighting fueled by greed.
        So let them develop their own RE power grids…it is bound to fail ( someone will steal the wire….and the poles to burn !)

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    Alice Thermopolis

    Population growth is the elephant in the UN’s Greenhouse.

    It was a big issue five decades ago. How did climate alarmism and “sustainable development” replace it?

    Oh, I see. The developing world and small island states began to set the UN agenda.

    http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=17867

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    joseph

    If there’s any truth in this we could see the world’s population’s falling way short of the projections should mandatory vaccinations become a way of life on the planet.

    “Adverse Effects of HPV Vaccine – Premature Ovarian Failure
    The American College of Pediatricians has expressed opposition to mandatory HPV vaccination in this statement: “The College is opposed to any legislation which requires HPV vaccination for school attendance.”  The American College of Pediatricians has issued a warning statement about POV (Premature Ovarian Failure) caused by HPV vaccines. (5,6)(22,23) See: Ovarian Failure After HPV Vaccine  by Scott S. Field, MD January 2016″.

    jefferydachmd.com

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    pat

    ABC excited:

    13 Jun: ABC: Norway’s $US1 trillion sovereign wealth fund to dump billions in coal investments
    By business reporter Stephanie Chalmers
    The world’s largest sovereign wealth fund will divest from a slew of coal companies and oil explorers and producers, after Norway’s parliament approved tighter investment rules.
    Norwegian politicians voted in favour of excluding the $US1 trillion fund from investing in companies that mine more than 20 million tonnes of coal annually or generate more than 10 gigawatts of power from coal…

    Norway’s sovereign wealth fund will also offload stakes in oil and gas explorers and producers, but retain investments in integrated energy companies including Royal Dutch Shell and ExxonMobil…
    Oil and gas companies represent 5.9 per cent of its equity investments, according to its 2018 annual report, and it currently invests more than 9,000 companies worldwide…
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-13/norway-sovereign-wealth-fund-to-ditch-billions-in-coal-stakes/11205134

    Updated 13 Jun: Reuters: Norway fund may have to offload $1 billion stake in Glencore in shift away from coal
    by Gwladys Fouche
    Environmental campaigners Greenpeace and Urgewald said the new rules mean the fund would have to divest its 2.03% stake in Glencore, worth $1 billion at the end of 2018 according to fund data.
    The fund would also have to sell its 2.16% holding in miner Anglo American, worth $620 million, they added, citing their own analysis.
    The fund, Glencore and Anglo American all declined to comment…
    Other divestments would include the fund’s 1.39% stake in Germany’s RWE worth $186 million, its 2.22% holding in Australia’s South32 worth $266 million and the 1.03% it owns in Germany’s Uniper among others, the green campaigners said…
    South32 and BHP Billiton declined to comment while Enel did not reply to a request for comment.
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-norway-swf-coal/norway-fund-may-have-to-offload-1-billion-stake-in-glencore-in-shift-away-from-coal-idUSKCN1TD0PL

    3 May: CNBC: US tech stocks push Norway’s $1 trillion oil fund to best ever gains
    The aim of the fund is to ensure a future source of wealth from current revenue derived from Norway’s oil and gas sales…
    The fund’s largest equity holdings as of the end of March were in Apple, Microsoft, Google-parent Alphabet and Amazon. According to Norges Bank, those tech stocks were the bulk of the strongest-performing sector for the fund, returning 17.6% in growth during the quarter.
    In its report, Norges Bank said oil and gas stocks as well as industrials also performed strongly…

    read all the following, tho I don’t know what changes with today’s news:

    11 Mar: Forbes: Norway’s Massive Sovereign Wealth Fund Is Not Divesting Its Energy Shareholdings
    by Jim Collins
    Based on mainstream media reports one might have thought that a seismic shift in global portfolio management occurred when Norway’s key sovereign wealth fund, the Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG,) announced a new policy regarding energy stocks Friday. According to some analysis Norway will be “dumping” (LINK) its oil and gas stocks, but nothing could be further from the truth. As that headline was from CNN it may be superfluous to note that is both inaccurate and misleading, but, fake news aside, the bottom line is that Norway’s GPFG is not divesting its energy holdings…

    In fact, the GPFG’s white paper pointedly notes that stocks of major integrated energy companies–Exxon, Total, Petrobras, Royal Dutch Shell, etc.–will continue to be included in the GPFG fund. The white paper contains the prediction that 90% of renewable energy investment between now and 2030 will come from companies whose main source of revenue is other than renewables. That same white paper notes that while climate change is an important risk factor, it is not a barrier to holding stakes in fossil fuel companies. So those making the GPFG announcement out to be a move away from fossil fuels or a divestment from the oil sector were just factually incorrect…

    It’s a fancy way of being green and still owning Exxon, but the bottom line is that even after it divests its holdings in oil and gas exploration and production companies (E&Ps) over time, GPFG is still going to own Exxon. The GPFG uses FTSE Russell industry classification standards for its sectoral definitions, and only Russell’s sector 0533–Exploration and Production–will be divested.
    A quick peek at GPFG’s 2018 annual report shoes that none of its top 10 energy holdings are in FTSE Russell category 0533, and thus the bulk of Norway’s oil and gas equity investments are staying. The GPFG was formerly known as the Oil Fund, and that is, according to the fund’s own literature, the source of over 95% of that fund’s inputs (excluding capital gains.) Also, Norway will continue to hold its 67% stake in Equinor, formerly known as Statoil…

    Note also that services companies are also not included in the FTSE Russell class to be divested by GPFG, so global players like Schlumberger (the 13th largest energy equity holding for GPFG as of year end) will also remain part of the portfolio…
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimcollins/2019/03/11/norways-massive-sovereign-wealth-fund-is-not-divesting-its-energy-shareholdings/#6b8713527dc3

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    pat

    13 Jun: ABC: Adani mine gets final environmental approval for Carmichael mine
    By Josh Bavas and Allyson Horn
    Construction at the mine site is expected to begin within days…
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-13/adani-carmichael-coal-mine-approved-water-management-galilee/11203208

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    pat

    Facebook: Peta Credlin 22h ago:
    I have been off air this week as I flew to India on Sunday to tell the story of what our coal will do to transform the lives of 300 million Indian men, women and children who live without power.
    I also sat down with Mr Gautam Adani, the man behind the name, for his take on the battle to build the Carmichael Mine in Queensland.
    On Thursday, the QLD Government makes a final decision on the mine and I will show you the human impact of the coal story.
    On Thursday, the QLD Government makes a final decision on the mine and I will show you the human impact of the coal story.
    Please join me for a special edition of Credlin THURSDAY 6pm.
    https://www.facebook.com/PetaCredlin/

    TWEET: Larissa Waters, Greens
    While this was the final state-level mine site approval for Adani, they still don’t have approval for the railway or pipeline, or all federal plans approved. Nor do they have a social licence! People power will win a safe climate and real jobs as coal communities transition.
    12 Jun 2019
    1 REPLY:
    Hacka
    Yawn …. sometimes you’ve just to to accept the result of years of process not to mention the voters of Queensland. Stop fighting progress !
    https://twitter.com/larissawaters/status/1139018338980548614?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Enews%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

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      Hanrahan

      The Townsville Bulletin says it is done.

      CONSTRUCTION on the Adani mine is set to begin within weeks after its crucial environmental plan was given the green light.

      The Department of Environment and Science on Thursday approved the mining giant’s groundwater management plan with conditions.

      It comes after nine years, nine legal reviews and $3.7 billion to get it started.

      The long-awaited, State Government groundwater approval for the Adani thermal coal project is due today just weeks after Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk said she was “sick” of the delays.

      The tick-off of the groundwater plan will be heralded as a win for regional communities in north and Central Queensland, which have in part pinned their hopes on resuscitating their local economy with mining investment. About 1500 direct jobs and 6750 indirect jobs are expected to be created by the project.

      ……………….

      The state budget has just been handed down and it is a borrow to spend one. So why not spend that money on the rail line? It is a “shovel ready” project that will turn a nice profit for 50 years, or until the next cash strapped government sells it as labor did with QRNational.

      https://www.townsvillebulletin.com.au/news/townsville/longawaited-approval-comes-for-adanis-groundwater-management-plan/news-story/b3da010bf47b75b998710ae1890fb903
      Behind a pay wall.

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        WXcycles

        ” … or until the next cash strapped government sells it as labor did with QR National. …”

        Given what Premiers Peter Beatty and Anna Blight did to QLD state finances and debt-loading I don’t think we’ll be seeing anything but a cash-strapped government (of all flavors) from now until 2060.

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    Dennis

    Adani Carmichael Coal Mine approved.

    Queensland, stubborn one day, running scared the next.

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      WXcycles

      It’s OK, Gore said it would never happen, something about the ‘economics’ of cheap coal.

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    Hanrahan

    Of course cheap power, available after dark is a giant step forward in the third world. It gets smokey stoves out of the hut. They burn wood if available, dung otherwise and that must be terrible for their health. It would allow the children to do a little home work and hopefully get some real education. And last but not least a cheap TV will give the parents something else to do at night other than what comes naturally.

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    • #
      Bill in Oz

      It has not had that impact in the Philippines Hanrahan !

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        Hanrahan

        The Filipino kids are well educated, they learn two languages – English and Tagalog.

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          Bill in Oz

          They learn their own regional dialect ( Bicolano, Visayan, Igorot, etc ect ect ) & Tagalog
          English is now a long way back for most kids.
          Unless they have rich parents who send them to private schools.
          Abortion and birth control are virtually banned i the Philippines
          Courtesy of the Catholic church.
          And do not quote the officla statistic about the Philippines.
          Registering a birth costs money.
          The poor don’t bother
          Go look around Tondo in Manila for confirmation…
          The largest slum in the Philippines built around the huge dump at it’s heart.

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        Hanrahan

        Birth rate: 23.7 births/1,000 population (2017 est.)

        That is below replacement. As the pop. ages it is projected to go lower.

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      • #
        Hanrahan

        I’ve been fighting this battle against the crazies long before gravitating here. I have tried dozens of times to get the idea across that we don’t have the right to condemn the world’s poorest to a hopeless life, where no improvement is possible with technology even the “wealthy west” can’t afford.

        You can’t see a shoulder shrug over the web but I could sense it. Let them install wind/solar they said if they answered at all. That’s a “Let them eat cake” response.

        The same response had DDT banned instead of controlled and millions have died of malaria. These ********s who tell me to think of the grandchildren don’t give a flying fig about the living. I’m sure they just see others as competition for scarse resorses.

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        • #
          Hanrahan

          Your comment is awaiting moderation.

          So I’ll try again.

          I’ve been fighting this battle against the crazies long before gravitating here. I have tried dozens of times to get the idea across that we don’t have the right to condemn the world’s poorest to a hopeless life, where no improvement is possible with technology even the “wealthy west” can’t afford.

          You can’t see a shoulder shrug over the web but I could sense it. Let them install wind/solar they said if they answered at all. That’s a “Let them eat cake” response.

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          Bill in Oz

          It’s called Compassion fatigue….
          For decades I worried and gave money
          Now I don’t.
          My focus is on local things in Oz

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    pat

    read all – the devil is in the detail:

    12 Jun: BBC: Climate change: UK government to commit to 2050 target
    By Roger Harrabin
    PIC: Young people have been very vocal in demanding change – now a group will take part in a government review
    ***Scotland has already committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net-zero by 2045, five years ahead of the UK government’s target…

    How will it affect people?
    If ministers decided to clamp down on meat-eating or on flying, that would meet serious opposition.
    But the government will attempt to make the clean revolution as painless as possible. Technology improvements like LED light bulbs, for instance, save emissions without people noticing.
    The same is true if people get hydrogen central heating instead of gas, or if they are obliged to drive electric cars rather than petrol vehicles.
    But there will need to be a massive investment in clean energy generation – and that has to be funded by someone.
    The government hasn’t yet spelled out if the cost will fall on bill-payers, or tax-payers, or the fossil fuel firms that have caused climate change…

    Prof Dieter Helm, from the Blavatnik School of Government at Oxford University, said: “From the UK’s end, doing this unilaterally, we have to be very careful that we don’t simply say: ‘we’re going to reduce the emissions from our cars and our power stations here in Britain, but we’re going to carry on importing those emissions from overseas.’
    “We don’t make very much in this country. Manufacturing is only 20% of the economy. Most of the stuff that you go and buy in the supermarket… it’s all imported.”…

    VIDEO: Teen activist Greta Thunberg addresses Extinction Rebellion rally
    Mrs May has taken the unusual step of announcing that a group of young people will advise the government on priorities for environmental action. They will start their review in July.
    This is seen as a nod towards young voters, many of whom have recently taken to the streets protesting that their environment was being destroyed…
    Professor Phil Taylor, head of engineering at Newcastle University: “Even with all the evidence before us we are still opening new coal mines, extending Heathrow airport and pushing forward with fracking”…

    Doug Parr, Greenpeace UK’s chief scientist, said it was a “big moment” for the climate but there were questions around plans to allow for international carbon credits which allow the UK to pay to offset its emissions elsewhere in the world…

    ***11 Jun: BBC: Greenhouse gas emissions target missed in Scotland
    By Kevin Keane
    Although total emissions fell by 3.3%, Scotland’s participation in the EU-wide Emissions Trading System (ETS) means adjusted emissions, used for setting targets, increased by 3.7%…
    Environment Secretary Roseanna Cunningham said: “Actual emissions, which are what really matters for tackling climate change, reduced by 3.3% between 2016 and 2017.” etc…
    “However, it is of course disappointing that the 2017 target has not been met, and that greenhouse gas emissions appear to have increased because of the technical adjustment made to the figures relating to the EU Emissions Trading System…

    Caroline Rance from Stop Climate Chaos Scotland said: “Today’s climate target result shows that Scotland needs to do more on climate change. Emissions from transport, including road traffic and flying, actually went up in 2017…
    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-48594832
    To assuage Treasury fears about competitiveness, she has stipulated that the net zero policy should be reviewed in five years to see whether other nations were taking similar actions.
    That might prove problematic if US President Donald Trump – who denigrates climate change – is still in the White House.
    Meanwhile, the radical green group Extinction Rebellion is warning that the climate is changing so fast that 2050 is far too late to eliminate emissions in order to ensure that temperature rise stays well under 2C.
    https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-48596775

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      Graeme No.3

      And will Roger Harrabin commit to not flying anywhere for the next 2 years?
      He’s just back from a BBC jaunt to Madeira.

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        pat

        Graeme No.3 – lol. Harrabin the hypocrite.

        somehow I posted the BBC Scotland piece in the middle of the Harrabin piece by mistake. sorry about that.

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    pat

    all the elite CAGW outfits getting MSM coverage:

    Students vow to shut down Brisbane CBD with peak hour Adani protest
    Courier Mail – 1h ago
    STUDENTS angry at the State Government’s approval of the Adani Coal Mine have threatened to close down the centre of Brisbane in protest. Just hours after the project was given the green light, Uni Students for Climate Justice and Movement Against Destruction unveiled plans…

    Age’s Lucy gives space to Bob Brown, Climate Council, Australian Marine Conservation Society, Mackay Conservation Group, Greenpeace & The Australian Conservation Foundation:

    13 Jun: Age: Adani approval welcomed by industry, decried by environmentalists
    by Lucy Stone
    Federal Resources Minister Matt Canavan…said it was a “historic” day for Queensland.
    “It has been more than 50 years since a new coal basin has opened in Queensland, so this development is of huge importance to the economic future of Queensland,” he said.
    “The Queensland government must now help facilitate the other mines in the Galilee to get more jobs going before they can be trusted again by the Queensland people.”…

    Chief executive Ian Macfarlane said all Queenslanders should welcome new investment in resource projects and called on activists and anti-Adani campaigners to accept the approvals and move on.
    “The Adani Carmichael mine is one of six in the Galilee Basin that could create tens of thousands of jobs in construction and operation and deliver billions of dollars in royalties over their working life span,” he said…
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/queensland/adani-approval-welcomed-by-industry-decried-by-environmentalists-20190613-p51xfb.html

    ABC worried about whether Adani can make a profit:

    13 Jun: ABC: Adani’s mine has the green light but questions remain about its viability
    By Josh Robertson
    Sceptical observers still struggle with the forbidding arithmetic of Adani, or whoever follows it, trying to turn a profit from a remote thermal coal mine in the era of the Paris climate agreement…
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-13/adani-mine-approval-still-big-questions-remain/11205280

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    Serp

    Here comes the second wave of Australia’s War On Coal. I’m agog to see what criminal stunts they are able to pull out of their modern day Anarchists’ Cookbook. The XR style inner city shutdown will be the least of it. I would expect that under advice Adani has already infiltrated these groups and has upped security against infrastructure sabotage. Wait and see then…

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    Graeme#4

    The lack of affordable energy is still a global issue, as currently around four million, mostly women and children, die from the effects of indoor pollution every year. This is mostly due to cooking and heating using biomass.

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    neil

    Here’s a wake up call for the global warming Nazi’s. There are many ways to estimate this but I assumed CO2 emissions are approx. proportional to GDP per capita and excluded fossil fuel production emissions.

    If by 2050, China, India, south America and Africa improve their standard of living to the level of Greece. Global CO2 emissions will increase by about 200% – 300% above todays levels no matter what action the west takes.

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    James

    Gapminder is the bomb. The Roslings show that an increase in education, wealth, health and standard of living has always contributed to a drop in the birth rate.

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    Brent Walker

    I worked for the World Bank in Pakistan in 1986. I am a health actuary. Their total fertility rate was 8.9. Many women died giving birth to their 12th or more child. The infant mortality rate was 125 (per thousand) and only about half of all children born reached puberty. Health care was available and affordable to middle class in cities but non existant in rural areas where 80% of the population lived. There were no roads, electricity or sanitation in most rural areas and the predominant cause of death of young people was gastro enteritus. There were 7000 fully qualified doctors driving taxis in Karachi, while they tried to get a job in Australia, NZ, UK, Canada etc.
    I had huge fights with the health economists at the World Bank about women being able to control their fertility. In the end my two recommmendations got included in their report. The first was to train the village dias (midwives) in the administration of oral rehydration salts, basic hygene and a few other simple preventive measures. The second was to partially train village witch doctors in medicine for a couple of years.
    These two programs were adopted in Pakistan and the rest of the countries on the sub continent followed as well as Myanimar and further north. Pakistan’s total fertility rate has now dropped by about 70% and the other countries by at least 50%. The number of lives saved is in the hundreds of millions.
    But what a battle it was to get male health ecomonists to believe women can cotrol their own fertility.
    Thanks for pointing this out Jo.

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