JoNova

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History keeps getting colder — ACORN2 raises Australia’s warming rate by over 20%

More warming adjustments from ACORN2

Once again we find that the oldest thermometers were apparently reading artificially high even though many were newish in 1910 and placed in approved Stevenson screens.)  This is also despite the additional urban warming effect of a population that grew 400% since then. What are the odds?!

Fortunately, gifted craftsmen, sorry scientists have uncovered the true readings from the old biased thermometers which they explain carefully in a 67 page impenetrable document.

Chris Gillham has soldiered through the new “ACORN 2″ adjustments that the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has o-so-quietly released and Australians are just waking up to find that our coldest mornings back in 1910 were even colder than anyone realized at the time. Graham Lloyd is  reporting in The Australian how the second rewrite in six years increases the warming by 23% . (Where was the ABC announcement?)

The ACORN series of the Bureau of Meteorology includes 112 stations. Their report lists the warming trends per decade in Table 9. I converted that into the total warming since 1910 and graphed that below.

About one third of the warming of our mean temperature is due to man-made adjustments

Comparing AWAP (semi-raw) to the latest ACORN2, the mean temp is up from 0.08C up to 0.123C per decade. That’s a 50% increase.

To slow Australia’s warming it’d be much cheaper to replace the BOM rather than our electricity grid. Just a thought.

Adjustments at the 57 longest stations in Australia, ACORN2 BOM, Max and Min. Graph.

The Australian BOM uses 112 Stations for the ACORN series. These are the full adjustments to the min, mean and max across all stations for the full range of 1910 – 2016.

As Chris points out AWAP is not exactly raw — but it is at least the unhomogenised Australian Water Availability Project dataset.

The biggest changes are in the old minima

The new ACORN version has nearly doubled the rate of warming in the minima of the longest running stations.

About half of the stations in the ACORN list are newer and start recording sometime after 1910. The last station added was in 1975. Chris Gillham reasons that this is not really good practice and so he identified the 57 stations which do have data all the way back.  He laboriously calculated the decadal trends, and again I converted them to the total warming and graphed the changes below, and we can see that  most of the action comes from the oldest early morning records.

Suddenly, one hundred years later, frosts got far worse during World War I.

It would be very helpful if the Bureau could explain why these particularly were measuring too high.

The historical cooling will presumably stop Australia setting some new “coldest ever records” and make it a bit easier to set “hottest ever” ones.

Records were smashed in all kinds of ways the week ACORN2 was released, but nobody knew…

Adjustments at the 57 longest stations in Australia, ACORN2 BOM, Max and Min. Graph.

In the 57 longest running sites the rate of warming nearly doubled in the minima.

 No, the homogenisation methods of the BOM have not been found to be “sound”

Graham Lloyd, The Australian:

A number of reviews of the ­bureau’s network equipment and its temperature data handling have been carried out. A technical panel found the homogenisation methods used were largely sound.

Actually, the The BOM Technical Advisory Forum was never tasked with replicating the homogenization process. Task members were mostly hand picked statisticians. They agreed homogenisation was necessary, “best practice” and they read “the unsolicited complaints”, and concluded that they were not enough to worry about. The only definitive news that came out of that forum was the admission from the BoM that absolutely no one outside of their sacred guild would ever get all the information and training to to recreate their dataset. The BoM method remains a secret black box technique to this day. If it can’t be replicated (because no one can explain the full methodology) it isn’t science.

Three years and $1.3 billion dollars later and still no error bars?

Graham Lloyd reports that progress is slow:

But a key recommendation, to include confidence levels or error margins in the data, remains ­unfulfilled. A BoM spokesman said work was under way on a number of scientific papers looking at uncertainty and confidence intervals for temperature data ­observations, adjustments and national averages.

“This work will be made available to the public following ­thorough peer review,” the spokesman said.

The Australian BOM get one million dollars a day but 1,339 days since the report was released and $1.3 billion dollars of taxpayer funds later, they still can’t do error bars.

Is this, or is this not the “Best Ever” dataset?

I mentioned a few days ago that the new rewrite created a new all time hottest Australian temperature record — a day that reached 51 degrees C. The question is whether the BOM will recognize this officially, or whether, like the last ACORN record in Albany, they simply pretend it doesn’t exist. ACORN 2 is now considered the official national average temperature record, but is the Carnarvon record from 1953 real, or just an anomaly accidentally created by sweeping changes?

Do the BoM team believe in ACORN? With no press release it doesn’t appear so.

Chris Gillham (and others) has done a mountain of work and there is much more yet to discuss. More soon…

 REFERENCE:

Bureau of Meteorology, ACORN 2, October 2019, Bureau Research Report – 032

WA Climate, Chris Gillham, ACORN2 influence on Australian temperature trends.

VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
Rating: 9.7/10 (92 votes cast)
History keeps getting colder -- ACORN2 raises Australia's warming rate by over 20%, 9.7 out of 10 based on 92 ratings

282 comments to History keeps getting colder — ACORN2 raises Australia’s warming rate by over 20%

  • #
    Kinky Keith

    I feel sorry for the past temperature data.

    Mistreated, abused and misrepresented.

    Such carefully acquired measurements have been part of Australia’s history and are relevant to each location only.

    As a separate analysis there may be reason to reduce current readings to give parity with older readings because of a known and measurable Urban Heat Island effect but basically all tampering needs to be thoroughly justified.

    Making the past “colder” shows an appalling lack of respect for statistics and science.

    If old and new data obtained by different methods is to be graphed then the raw data should all be plotted with explanations for discontinuities and outliers.

    Data adjustment is not statistics, it’s manipulation.

    KK

    521

    • #
      Curious George

      All is fair in love and in climatology.

      240

    • #
      Yonniestone

      Question is would the Ministry of truth feel bad about eradicating the historical records that entire lives were dedicated to preserving?

      When people are rewarded for “adjusting” any historically important information to fit an agenda that becomes a cultural normality in itself, lets hope there’s a lot of Winston’s sleeping within these departments waiting for the reformation.

      171

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      In the Soviet days, history books were re-written to ensure a favourable view of Stalins exploits…like starving a million Ukranians to death because they said no to him…..

      Is this statistical bastardry akin to the infamous Rutherglen homogenization?

      210

    • #
      Ian Wilson

      In case you are not aware of this BOM site. It contains
      some Australian temperature data that goes all of the way back to
      the 1880s. This is prior to the BOM censorship wall of 1910.

      Go to the FTP site:

      ftp://ftp.bom.gov.au/anon/home/ncc/www/change/HQdailyT

      Name___________________________Size________Date_____ Modified

      HQ_daily_tdr_txt.tar___________11.9 MB____4/16/13,__10:00:00 AM
      HQ_daily_tmax_txt.tar_________12.0 MB____4/16/13,__10:00:00 AM
      HQ_daily_tmean_txt.tar________11.9 MB____4/16/13,__10:00:00 AM
      HQ_daily_tmin_txt.tar__________11.9 MB____4/16/13,__10:00:00 AM
      HQdailyT_info.pdf______________36.9 kB_____1/8/08,___11:00:00 AM

      e.g. look at the data for Kent Town near the centre of Adelaide.

      Number__Lat._____Long.___El.(m)____Name
      023090___-34.92__138.62__ 0048.0___ KENT TOWN

      It goes all the way back to 1887.

      I hope it might be useful to people who want to get access to
      this forbidden data.

      90

    • #
      Ted O'Brien.

      Admiral Titley belled the cat on this one.

      “Every time they run the numbers”, he said, “They get a worse result!”

      Which stands as proof of a bias in their system.

      51

    • #
      ATheoK

      Adjustments are direct admissions that error bars exist.

      Nor are the error bars dependent upon the actual adjustment. Those adjustments simply acknowledge one direction of a range +/-.
      Their attempts to cool the past instead call attention to how much warmer the error range allows for past temperatures.

      20

    • #
    • #

      Kinky Keith
      You just don’t understand modern climate “science”.

      The future climate is known with great precision,
      to three decimal places, with 102% confidence.
      The predictions of +3 degrees C. per CO2 doubling never change,
      even though they’ve been wrong since the 1970s !

      It’s the past climate
      that’s a mystery.

      It keeps changing.

      In fact, it changes so often
      that new climate data
      need to be “aged”
      for 20 years
      before being used
      for scientific purposes,
      giving the data
      time “to settle down”.

      30

  • #

    Social experiments justify anything and truth is the first victim.

    221

    • #

      I think AWAP was the first victim. It was supposed to be “Raw Un-adjusted” data. However most of it exists as shown by the AWAP maps in places that never ever had thermometers. The label on the can may need to list infill as the main ingredient.
      So far as i can figure out the unadjustment process makes it like a raw unadjusted person. There are a lot of steps in the unadjustment process. I like to compare it to unadjusting a vehicle.
      1) Loosen wheel nuts four full turns.
      2) Clean windscreen with sledge hammer.
      3) Grease all V belts.
      4) Point mirrors down.
      5) Clean all trace of coolant from radiator.
      6) Tune radio to ABC.
      7) Install anchor and chain.
      etc.

      250

    • #
      Interested

      “Those who control the present, control the past and those who control the past control the future.” ― George Orwell, 1984

      We know Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming (CAGW) isn’t science. It’s political and it’s global.
      I discuss it with people and express my opinion that it’s a top-down orchestrated push on a staggering scale, but most of those I know cannot get their heads around the concept of such an enormous falsehood. They say it can’t possibly be directed from above by a faceless, often unelected, group of shadowy figures. “That’s just paranoia”, they say.

      But no. I don’t think so.
      CAGW is clearly without scientific foundation, yet it thrives and grows all over the world. And that cannot be due to a series of unconnected events. CAGW is a brilliant tool being used to undermine capitalism, national sovereignty, and individual freedom. And although CAGW itself is a huge conspiracy, it’s just one facet of a much bigger campaign of worldwide significance.
      I think I have a pretty good idea of where it’s leading us but the whole thing sounds so much like a James Bond movie plot (even to me!), that I tend to leave that part out of discussions.

      Suffice it to say that this latest ‘ACORN 2′ re-writing of the past is just a small part of the ongoing global plan. BOM will get away with this. Most people have no grasp of even the most basic science and can’t read a simple graph. The media will present it as fact and the majority of voters will simply accept it.
      No amount of well-meaning investigation and debunking will help because we’re “science deniers” and the media won’t devote any time to publicising our rebuttals.
      “The science is in.”
      “The debate is over.”
      “It’s worse than we thought.”
      “The time for climate action is now.”
      Etc.
      You know the routine.

      We’re sleepwalking toward a brand new world … and I really don’t think we’re going to like it when we get there.

      321

      • #
        Latus Dextro

        The Trojan horse of climatism is one of several UN Trojan horses.
        The end result is too horrible to contemplate and I am confident it will unravel. Indeed, the unraveling has started. Present days contain the hallmark of staring fanaticism.

        At the same time the push back is growing stronger, becoming obvious, articulate and coherent, and the people are waking up:
        The Worldwide Nationalist Backlash: Analyzing the worldwide blowback against globalization and its secular aristocracy.

        As the Trojan horses disgorge their innards, so the UN end game becomes obvious. The moment of surprise is over and the end game is as obvious as the pernicious and divisive rainbow ideology with its neo-Marxist identity politics, political correctness and cultural Marxism, so clearly irrational, destructive and intentional.

        Desperate data manipulation grows greater by the day. BOM, NASA-GISS hard at it, depressing the past elevating the present and recent past since c.1950. Tony Heller highlights this clearly and compellingly.

        Now, take a look at the excruciating boredom of business as usual at the CET highlighted over at Judith Curry:

        *UK Met Office seasonal temperatures: 5 year running mean since 1660.

        *UK Met Office seasonal temperatures and trends since 2000. This illustrates a declining trend of 0.5C over 15 years.

        Little wonder the BOM et al. are becoming massage practitioners. Their future destination depends on it. Trouble is, the massaged data is going to look increasingly out of whack with the anomalies elsewhere.

        The BOM have yet to realise that they are doomed to fail.
        They will eventually come to suffer a grotesque and permanent humiliation from which they will never recover.

        101

      • #
        Mal

        The new world order will be a green hell
        Equal misery for all.
        It MUST be STOPPED.
        We have reached the tipping point.

        101

        • #
          Ted O'Brien.

          There won’t be equal misery for all. There will be winners.

          If the Marxists are the winners, they will kill or enslave the losers. Just as they have always done.

          30

  • #
    Dennis

    The manipulators share responsibility with manipulators world wide for unaccountable damage to people who have been deceived, and for the enormous financial costs for saving the planet from a problem that doesn’t exist, man made global warming, really natural Earth Cycles of changing climate and weather conditions.

    No doubt the politicians will claim no responsibility for the hoax and place the blame on others who advised them.

    261

    • #
      yarpos

      I think you may be dreaming if you think there will ever be any responsibility or accountability. The best you can probably hope for is that the public turns its back on the issue and we all just stop talking about it and move on, like the 70s Ice Age and Peak Oil.

      210

  • #
    yarpos

    Odd how current low temperature reading are treated with distrust, but past readings can be confidently adjusted south. The winners write history they say.

    250

    • #
      Bill in Oz

      No ! they are NOT the winners.

      The winners are here in this blog

      Shouting loud & clear the Imperial Bureau of Misrepresentation has NO clothes

      220

    • #
      yarpos

      Yeah sure, fight the good fight and all that.

      Reality will catch up eventually, but they (the winners, because its all just a game to them) will have slunk away with their millions. Meanwhile the rightously correct will just have to settle for the warn fuzzy glow of I told you so.

      Not sure when why will go over the crest of hyped expectation and accelerate into the trough of disillusionment. I think Tesla is about there know , grid scale wind and solar a few years more yet I think. The BOM has all the marbles so they can easily adjust their apparent role in all this depending what way the wind blows.

      131

    • #
      Greebo

      The winners write history they say.

      Until the next war proves them wrong. Sadly though, yarpos is correct. They’ll have slunk away by then.

      60

  • #
    Zigmaster

    How can anyone take seriously any climate scientist ( of the warming variety) predictions if there is such uncertainty about the past. I thought that when people [mislead] that there would be consequences. I had assumed promotion and adulation would not be one of them.

    [Edited, Zig for legal reasons. - jo]

    80

  • #
    Jonesy

    I have asked before…How many people in the BoM are activist? I just cannot believe that 100% of the organisation are “conditioned” to follow the cult.

    241

    • #
      TedM

      Like most people they hasve families to house and feed, doing that means keeping their jobs. The younger ones will have been groomed on the CAGW narrative, and it will now be part of their mental DNA.

      280

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        Like cancer then?

        100

        • #
          Bobl

          Not exactly, years ago BOM and CSIRO started employing environmental scientists, because of the new environmentalism of society. Climate science is part of Environmental science. Environmental science attracts activists, it has a very low tertiary entrance score lower than the 50th percentile and tends to appeal to people wanting to work their hobby, eg. Scuba diving the reef or treking antarctica, so there is precious little quality in these graduates. They don’t do hard science, physics, chemistry. Since then these people have been promoted into positions of power and began to purge people with contrary views from both CSIRO and BOM they employed people in their own image, which is what happens in government to the point that there are now few contrary voices in either organisation, they are huge echo chambers. Once a critical mass of activism is achieved even the engineers have to become silent since dissent becomes a “career limiting move”

          This is pretty much the pattern all over.

          50

    • #

      You only need those in positions of power to be activists, the workers, no matter what their beliefs, will generally toe the line for fear of losing their jobs.

      240

    • #
      AndyG55

      I know guys who have gone for jobs there.

      If you do not hold AGW opinions, you don’t get employed. Its that simple.

      One friend of mine got in, but left after a year and a half.. called the scientific atmosphere “stifling”.

      ps, I am gradually sowing seeds of AGW scepticism in his mind ;-)

      but as we all know, breaking through walls of brain-washing and indoctrination can be quite difficult, and sometimes frustrating.

      353

    • #
      yarpos

      Have you always agreed with every action/direction of the organisations you worked for ? I expect not. Was it enough to resign or become an internal activist over? I expect many in the BOM just ro;ll their eyes and do their jobs.

      100

      • #
        AndyG55

        Had a coffee with him just after he left, said he had to get out.

        I didn’t push the issue because we had much more important things to talk about. :-)

        82

  • #
    TedM

    This isn’t just corruption of data, it is corruption of science and in this case also of politics. I’m glad that my blood pressure is naturally a little low or I would be popping blood vessels everywhere.

    290

    • #
      AndyG55

      Someone on another thread said they “have” to adjust the data to make it “more accurate”

      BIZARRE !!!!

      243

    • #
      joseph

      Maybe we should be giving them some credit for being so creative.

      40

    • #
      theRealUniverse

      Tony Hellers latest on NASA fiddling …its getting worse , much worse. 61% Fake data.
      Of course the B O M has to follow…

      93

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      I sat and thought about this a bit so here goes – the Nazis figured they had it all sewn up and were on track to create a 1000 year Reich. In the end, they were getting children to fight and hid in bunkers. God will rout these rats out of their holes, I have no doubt, even if He has to literally do it himself. So at times it looks bleak, but the moral mess and the damage they have done to innocent people is not unseen by God…..its only a matter of time.

      The problem is, human nature is in a fallen state, its natural state is badness because sin entered the world way back when, which is why we had Christ come to us as a Redeemer.

      And yes I expect it get bad for quite a while. The end game from a Christian perspective isn’t CAGW, its the rise of the Anti Christ. Here’s where we can laugh at the NWO crowd – they are just bag boys for the Devil, useful idiots, if you will. So the Devil has offered them power and trinkets and given them “secrets” ( FYI – God doesn’t do sneaky stuff, Hes up front about stuff….), and so now puffed up with their own importance, they are only working under a delusion, to fulfill Gods agenda, but the Devil and his patsies think they are in control.

      I expect we will see the Devil emerge in Israel, using the UN as his administration ( says something about the occult UN, huh? ) to implement his twisted and anti-Christian agenda. At first he will seem like a superman, able to fix intractible problems for 3.5 years , then he will viciously turn on Christians for 3.5 years and make Nero look like a naught 5 year old by comparison. But God wins, the Devil loses.

      Just remember the NWO crowd are just deluded servants of evil, and they will get nailed to the wall, by Gods grace. The bluff the Devil runs is he is all powerful. Hes not – thats why he needs IoT to ape Gods omnipotnece and omnipresence, satellites & smartphones to track everyone, and., eventually when The Mark Of the Beast appears without which no-one will be able to buy or sell, it will be only those who have faith on God who reject the demonic Mark and become outcasts ( maybe Blockchain and “Universal ID” is the Mark? who knows….

      Society is in freefall – we have rejected God and His ways, we have embraced the rank foolishness of declaring 64 different agendas, SSM and let the drovers dog make our laws. Its going to end in tears, but from my perspective, its (a) expected and (b) as God said it would happen and (c) Christians know redemption is close now with the clock running down fast now for Jesus’ 2nd Coming.

      Have a good weekend.

      34

      • #
        Greebo

        I’m not going to enter a theological debate, because we all know where that can lead, but I would add this: The Nazis ( as they became known ) based a hell of a lot of their hate of the Jews and Romany and Negro on another celebrated theory, which had massive support from the western elites, including most of Hollywood, Presidents current and past, and even such luminaries ( ? ) as Churchill, who wrote to Asquith, “The unnatural and increasingly rapid growth of the Feeble-Minded and Insane classes, coupled as it is with a steady restriction among all the thrifty, energetic and superior stocks, constitutes a national and race danger which it is impossible to exaggerate.”

        It took a hideous war to rid the world of the theory of Eugenics completely ( once again,”?” I’m not sure it has gone completely, it just hides behind such euphemisms as diversity and inclusion ) .

        I hate to be Eeyore, but I fear a war is the only reset button left to us.

        31

        • #
          OriginalSteve

          Hi Greebo, my post was more of a brain dump onto a page, I wasnt really expecting anyone to respond and wasnt try to kick off debate, I promise.

          I hope a war inst the reset. We are in a bit of a weird space, a lot of things are in a weird “orbit” which got me thinking of a spiritual “driver”. Ive observed in the US for example Trump is draining the swamp, which upset the status quo which is maybe why with such a correction, a lot of stuff feels well out of whack. I’m hoping people remain stable and sensible and keep fingers off triggers.

          50

        • #
          Serp

          War? What side will we be on? What are the sides? Sorry Greebo, typically I’m on your wavelength, but I’m struggling to fit it into my live and let live approach.

          10

  • #
    Another Ian

    “Suddenly, one hundred years later, frosts got far worse during World War I.”

    Adding to the villainy of Kaiser Bill?

    100

  • #
    Greg Cavanagh

    If I remember correctly, the Bom review conviened for three days. They sat in a room and were presented with a PowerPoint presentation of the Bom methodology.

    I can’t remember if the report came out at the end of the three days, or if the three days was the analysis.

    It was a coverup and a joke. Disappointing that none of the reviewers ever complained about the lack of review.

    220

  • #
    TedM

    Just a question here Jo. Does this mean that when I now look at “climate data online” at the BOM, I am looking at “Acorn 2 Data”? I am assuming that is or will soon be the case.

    100

    • #
      Ken Stewart

      No. CDO will always (we hope) show the raw data. Acorn 2 is what is used for “warming faster than ever” and “hottest ever year” etc.

      182

      • #
        TedM

        Thanks Ken.

        50

      • #

        I agree with Ken “No. CDO will always (we hope) show the raw data.”
        However a lot of it is not fully digitised, a lot is missing (The AWOL data set).
        An example of AWOL data would be the records taken By Sir Charles Todd from the West Terrace Adelaide site from 1856 ish to 1887.

        120

      • #
        Bill in Oz

        Is other words it’s the basis of their climate warming propaganda ?

        90

      • #

        TedM … To clarify the introduction of ACORN 2 at the bureau’s website, it has and will have no impact on the raw daily and monthly temps provided via the Climate Data Online page.

        If you go to the bureau’s Climate Change and Variability page (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/#tabs=Tracker&tracker=timeseries), all of the data presented in this platform is still ACORN 1, including the time series graphs which display anomaly charts and linked data, the climate change site networks map where you can click any of the 112 stations to get absolute daily, seasonal, monthly and annual temperature averages, and all temperatures through the Datasets tab.

        The BoM has indicated it’ll introduce ACORN 2 early in 2019, which I interpret to mean their developers will have propagated the ACORN 2 dataset throughout the Climate Change and Variability platform so that all anomalies and absolutes are A2 based. Logic suggests that all the bureau’s public announcements about temperature anomalies or absolutes will thereafter be based on ACORN 2.

        The BoM website database will presumably be updated throughout in one upload, so to speak, as it’s not something that could be staged with some sections ACORN 2 and others ACORN 1. It would make sense that a media release will be issued at that time to explain what’s happened and the broader media might then decide if the temperature history rewrite is newsworthy.

        These are presumptions, although it wouldn’t make much sense leaving ACORN 1 as their website database with ACORN 2 just being some detached but according to them more accurate dataset tucked away for anybody who’s curious. If the presumptions of a new ACORN 2 website database and public announcement are correct, there’s room for speculation as to whether the timing of that will have any political influence or repercussions.

        Just be aware that except for the CDO raw pages, what you’re seeing presently on the BoM website (16 Feb) is still ACORN 1.

        90

      • #

        Seems to work like this.
        There is a lot of observational data.
        Then there is not.
        Then some of what remains is monthly digitised onto the Climate data online page.
        Then some of that is daily digitised.
        Some of that makes it onto Climate data online while some is only available to be quoted elsewhere.
        Then the processes of unadjustment and infilling are used to create two D maps where a month of daily values are “not tightly constrained” to agree with the monthly map values etc.
        Acorn 1 is somewhat different using data from, er well somewhere perhaps the only available to be quoted from place, which they seem to call “ADAM”
        It is then homogenised to remove anything that does not comply with theory.
        Acorn two is different again because they keep getting everything wrong, can see its all gone wrong and just can.

        If you are having trouble understanding what “RAW” means and where it fits into all the above, the BoM explain it here below. Be warned it does not seem to be in English. It could be the muddle language often referred to using the full description “clear as mud”.
        “Reference to ‘raw’ data is in itself a misleading
        concept as it often implies some pre-adjustment
        dataset which might be taken as a pure recording
        at a single station location. For two-thirds of
        the ACORN-SAT station series there is no raw
        temperature series, but rather a composited series
        taken from two or more stations. The often quoted
        “raw” series is in fact a composite series from
        different locations.”
        http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/acorn-sat/documents/5-ACORN-SAT-TAF-TOR3.pdf

        41

    • #
      Geoff Sherrington

      TedM,
      Raw data from the 1860s to early 2007 were recorded on a CD product the BOM used to sell and might still sell. It has, IIRC, about 1200 Australian weather stations with daily Tmax and Tmin and it took a lot of work to compile. The BOM should be congratulated for the work, although it is a prime part of their reason for existence. It could do with a catch up to include data up to 2020, soon.
      Whenever I cross match these CD temperatures with Climate Data Online, CDO, from the BOM web site, it matches.
      Suggestion. Buy yourself the CD. Help to preserve a threatened species. Geoff.

      100

  • #
    DaveR

    Its not that the Federal coalition government know nothing about this malfeasance. They were concerned enough before to commence an inquiry under Abbott, to see it cancelled under the warmist Turnbull. And that was over Acorn-1.

    But Morrison is still running with the Turnbull policies, and dare not investigate BOM because of a serious potential risk to the pack of cards, and the collapse of the “scientific’ basis for the energy policies and massive subsidies.

    Perhaps the BOM know they are safe from the coalition in this run up to the Federal election?

    151

  • #
    robert rosicka

    BOM the gift that keeps giving to the skeptics and now another word in the Dictionary to help explain what a Furphy is .

    110

  • #
    Another Ian

    BOM has assistance

    “Friday Funny – Welcome to the “AOCene”

    “The AOCene. A period of epic ineptness and stupidity.”

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/02/15/friday-funny-welcome-to-the-aocene/

    90

  • #
    DaveR

    The real temperatures measured during the Federation Drought of 1896-1903 have just become more important.

    The BOM’s trick has been to start the Acorn-2 series from about 1910 and neatly avoid the embarrassingly high temperatures of the Federation Drought and earlier, especially the continuous long-lived stations. They give a variety of reasons why the earlier temperatures are not used.

    The new Acorn-2 series now further adjusts down the early 1900s temperatures to such an extent – over 1 degC – that there is a major discontinuity moving back into the real Federation Drought temperatures – many of which were measured in the remote countryside.

    The discontinuity is now so large – the Federation Drought temperatures prove the adjustment is incorrect.

    And remember, the whole global warming signal claimed to exist over the last century is smaller that the Acorn-1 and Acorn-2 adjustments.

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    • #
      Geoff Sherrington

      DaveR,
      Yours is a correct and timely observation, thank you.
      The pre-1910 gap from cooling the past is not helped by individual daily adjustments up to 10 deg C in the difference between Raw and the new Acorn2. Do read the latest Kenskingdom blog article by Ken Stewart. Geoff

      141

    • #
      el gordo

      ‘…the embarrassingly high temperatures of the Federation Drought ….’

      I was thinking it might have been naturally cooler because of the Gleissberg Minimum, but it seems you are correct.

      http://jonova.s3.amazonaws.com/guest/silliggy/adelaide-westerrace-max-chart.gif

      50

      • #
        Greg Cavanagh

        All I can see is a few less maximum low temperatures, and a few less maximum high temperatures, as time moves forward. It’s all pretty even otherwise.

        30

        • #

          Greg I just copied it into widows paint and stretched it in the vertical dimension. I untick the “maintain aspect ratio” box to stretch the vertical five times (500%). Then do it again.
          The dark line in the center then clearly shows a near sine wave. Other people who have done this with long records often mistake it for a sixty year cycle. I think it is actually the combination of many harmonically related cycles. There you can see the 58 and 69.6 year components of a much longer Fourier series.

          50

          • #
            Greg Cavanagh

            Yes Siliggy. I could see the sine wave, but it was so shallow I ignored it. I was just looking for some sign of a rising temperature, but could not find it anywhere. Not in the trend, not in the maximums, not in the minimums.

            The sine wave may just be an artifact of the computational processing. Too shallow to say one way or another (I think).

            40

            • #

              Thanks Greg.
              Artifacts of the computational processing is a possible explanation but they are usually shorter. Much closer to the sampling rate frequency. If it is from monthly averages then the sampling rate is 12 samples per year. These samples are at an uneven rate because some months are 31 or 30 days but one is 28 or 29. That will cause angle deviations in the annual that create side band frequencies. These then can hetrodyne via Nyquist aliasing to produce another layer of false signals.

              There are all sorts of other possibilities related to the site, methods etc but it could be real. So “(I Think)” is a good addition at the end there.
              Wonder if CO2 negative climate sensitivity is helping to stabilise any real variation by reducing the amplitude.

              20

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      Yes they do that with communicable disease data too…usually they start graphs from 1980 onwards, conveniently leaving out the reality of a constant and natural decline in childhood diseases as living standards and sanitation improved……but there is no money for Big Pharma in letting people know that.

      80

  • #
    Another Ian

    Which leg will they pull for ACORN 3?

    120

  • #
    NB

    Actually, the world was covered by permafrost at the beginning of the 20C. The BOM will adjust all newspaper stories of the era accordingly. I believe they drafted up a front page story for Dec 25, 1900, with the headline ‘Another white Christmas’, but it was rejected on racial grounds.

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  • #
    el gordo

    The Guardian is taking on News Corp for belittling scientists.

    ‘Damaging the credibility of scientists when we need their fearless advice more than ever is socially irresponsible and morally reprehensible.’

    Its over the Adani Mine and a rare bird, but the battle lines are clearly drawn.

    140

    • #
      AndyG55

      If there is a rare bird near Adani, there are bound to be hundreds more close by.

      72

      • #
        Hivemind

        If there isn’t a rare bird near Adani,they will soon “discover” one. Most of the modern species are simply minor variations of existing ones, ie races. A scientist tried to call the Australian dingo a new specied, when it can interbreed freely with modern dogs.

        It used to be for the naming rights, which are highly prized. Now it’s for the power to block development.

        80

      • #
        Yonniestone

        Years ago the only rare birds found near mine sites were ones driven in the back of a panel van………

        92

        • #
          AndyG55

          What sort of cage did you use?

          42

          • #
            Yonniestone

            None, when any business is conducted in the spirit of a free market no one is coerced into anything untoward.

            Leave the cages for current businesses and departments that’re corrupted with foreign rulers and PC culture.

            82

            • #
              AndyG55

              Was just wondering how you coped with those birds flapping around in the back of the panel van. ?

              52

              • #
                Another Ian

                Andy

                Were they working their passage?

                50

              • #
                DaveR

                Anybody remember the Gouldian Finch which was used to try and stop the development of the Mt Todd gold mine in the Northern Territory? Same tactics. Straight out of the WWF manual on how to stop natural resource projects (Chapter 5).

                30

              • #
                Geoff Sherrington

                In the mid 1960s there was a headline law case involving a young lady, alleged rape and 3 men with a Holden station wagon. The Judge recalled the evidence of the girl hitch-hihing at 1am on a Sunday morning on the Gold Coast highway. The Judge, summing up, had said “You will recall when you were asked if it was wise to accept a lift from 3 drunk young men with a station wagon with a mattress in the back. You will recall your response as ‘But your Honour, I thought there was a mattress in the back of every station wagon.’”
                Geoff

                40

        • #
          Greebo

          They were only rare in my experience…. Everyone else seemed to have an adequate supply.

          20

    • #
      yarpos

      I remember a cartoon back in the 70s/80s that showed mining developments as a snakes and ladders game. That one had a compulsory routing via a “discover aboriginal sacred site” step. I guess for an up to date one we could add discovery of assorted birds, and battling self appointed climate warriors.

      70

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        I always think that this is somewhat an equivalent, and amusing. Seems to lay the whole thing bare….

        https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/for-the-pacific-it-s-always-about-cash-environment-minister-in-diplomatic-incident-over-climate-change-20181017-p50a6b.html

        “Environment Minister Melissa Price has been accused of offending a key Pacific leader by declaring the region was “always” seeking cash from Australia, in a disputed remark that has triggered a new storm over government policy on climate change.

        Ms Price is said to have told former Kiribati president Anote Tong, a nominee for the Nobel Peace Prize, that she had her “chequebook” ready because it was “always about the cash” when Pacific Island leaders came to Australia.”

        “The remark in a busy Canberra restaurant on Tuesday night, in front of several witnesses, sparked a rebuke to the minister over her “offensive” behaviour and an attack on her performance in Parliament.

        “Fairfax Media has spoken to two sources who confirmed an account of the conversation by Western Australian senator Pat Dodson, who introduced Ms Price and Mr Tong at the restaurant.”

        20

      • #
        Greebo

        Was it a snake, or a ladder? I know what I think it should be, but…….

        10

  • #
    David Maddison

    I know they are cooling the past and warming the present for political purposes (it has nothing whatever to do with science) but what was the point of them artificially warming the temperature for Carnarvon on Jan 23, 1953 from 47.7C to 51.0C?

    111

    • #
      RicDre

      “…what was the point of them artificially warming the temperature for Carnarvon on Jan 23, 1953 from 47.7C to 51.0C?”

      No point, it was just Collateral damage.

      120

    • #
      Greebo

      There’s a lovely word; narrative. Things need to suit it, apparently.

      30

  • #
    mem

    I’m starting to think we should start a crowd funding to provide a reward to a whistle blower(s) to blow a whole in this scam. Let’s say we target the raising of a million dollars.Surely his will appeal to someone that can reveal the truth. I’d be happy to provide the first hundred dollars. What do people think?

    60

    • #
      el gordo

      This is a conspiracy of silence, paying someone to be a whistle blower wouldn’t be credible.

      Donate your $100 to Jonova instead.

      82

      • #
        mem

        I don’t think you understand human nature. A million dollars would certainly be an attractive prize for someone to prove that official past weather records are being systematically and deliberately altered to create warming. Plus it would be a great publicity exercise that would allow the public to participate not only here in Australia but overseas as well. Members of the public aren’t all sheep and many,many people are frustrated and feel powerless to do anything. This could really take off. At the end of the day it might be jo and her team that win the prize.

        70

        • #
          Greg Cavanagh

          We recently had Peter Ridd do a whistleblow on James Cook university. Only to be sacked and hounded.

          My guess is that whistle blowing only works in politics, and even then, only sometimes.

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      • #
        theRealUniverse

        Start a site called WikiClimate..

        50

    • #
      yarpos

      You may be overestimating the number of people who care, or event notice this issue is even happening.

      60

    • #
      george1st

      Sorry , but that would be bribery and would possibly attract the wrong type of attention.

      40

  • #
    dp

    So long as there is a need for [bias] there will be [bias] adequate to solve the tough problems only [bias] can solve.

    [Edited DP. - legal reasons. - Jo]

    30

  • #
    Geoff Sherrington

    Error bars.
    Between March last year and now, almost a year, I have several times asked the BOM for the error terms X in the customary scientific expression T+/-X, where T is a daily temperature from a weather station, as a maximum and a minimum, in degrees C recorded routinely in the manners customary of past times.
    I have been fobbed off by a Dr Anthony Rea, with mentions of answers to become available after new publications, conferences, meetings or whatever.
    There is still no value of X for me.

    This value of X, however defined in fine detail, is an every day part of the work of almost every scientist working with numbers. Even outside science, similar concepts lead to accountants balancing their books to find it there are errors.

    It is simply beyond comprehension that the BOM does not know its internal values of X for the main types of its temperature numbers. There are ways to calculate X described in great detail by bodies like the Paris-based BIPM, Bureau of Weights and Measures, to whose guidelines BOM has agreed to abide by with official agreements.

    This reluctance to reveal X and to make it a public item for debate and discussion has to involve gate keeping. One can ask if information like this, acquired with public monies, can or should be kept from the public, who are the ultimate owners of it.

    My surmise is that X is known for the main relevant classes of temperature data, but that it is an unpalatable (to the BOM) large number. Embarrassing. When the BOM announces that a new high temperature record has just happened at a place, beating the old record by 0.01 deg C (or whatever) the usual caveat then needs to add that the temperatures are only accurate to an X of +/- 1.1 deg C (or whatever) and so the “record” is without scientific meaning of any value. Geoff

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    • #
      Bill in Oz

      Exactly Geoff !

      The Bureau of Misinformation’s so called scientists, dare not publish the error bars they already know in their back rooms.

      Why ? Maybe because they error bars are so big that they would be laughed at throughout the country..

      What I find interesting is this statement ” BoM spokesman said work was under way on a number of scientific papers looking at uncertainty and confidence intervals for temperature data ­observations, adjustments and national averages……This work will be made available to the public following ­thorough peer review.”

      Duhhhh ?

      That means the ‘Acorn 2′ is just a pre peer reviewed DRAFT document.

      I wonder who the reviewers are.

      Could you offer your services Geoff ?

      141

  • #
    Serge Wright

    ACORN – Adjustment Control Organisation of Radical Nutjobs

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  • #
    TdeF

    We all know what this is about. Preventing Global Cooling as predicted so certainly by Prof Weiss who has fitted the last 2500 years and can honestly project the next 50 with real science.

    Meanwhile the Global Warming industry desperately needs to stop the obvious Global Cooling with record cold in many countries. That is going to hurt the average. Those pesky satellites! The only hope is to lower the past.

    Consider then that Australia is in a very special position as Australian records dominate 1/3 of the globe, the 1/3 which is mainly water.

    Only 2% of the world lives below the Tropic of Capricorn and all the good records are in Australia which also has the bulk of the land mass, the Great Southern Land. Those pesky satellites have stopped the adjustment of land temperatures, so the only hope to prevent Global Cooling is to have Australia lower past temperatures and so lower past world temperatures. That’s 57 stations to calculate the past temperature of a whole planet. You can guarantee their temperatures fluctuate wildly with different models to calculate global termperatures. As we have seen, up to 3C in places.

    You have to wonder how this works, how the Global Warming industry connects with the IPCC and they with the BOM to get someone to quietly and secretly push things down. I would guess 99% of the BOM have no idea about this and would not have a part of it, but it pays the wages. Otherwise they will be replaced by satellite data and computers and artificial intelligence.

    Historically many terrible things happened when left to good people in public service and it was better to not know or feign ignorance. Australia has never made thermometers, so it is not instrumental error and they were not so bad, so it is not the figures themselves. The only way to do it is to deduce the correct temperatures from model and adjust them to what they should have been and perhaps what they needed to be. Plus leave out the Federation drought.

    Manufactured world temperature data by professional scientists in a secret project doing the bidding of their political masters and so the Global Warming money machine, the UN, EU and the world banks. It’s not a conspiracy. It’s life, realism, practicality, a congruence of interests in money and survival. They are only a few old numbers anyway. Who cares? What difference could it make?

    Or is that why it is called ACORN, because big things come from it?

    After a walk on the beach this morning, I have to say the beach and water level has not changed in my lifetime. Far cooler than previous years too. What was the problem again?

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    • #
      Bill in Oz

      There is some substance to your assertion about the number of weather stations in the southern hemisphere.

      Australian ones do constitute a large proportion.But not all of them.

      Cheifio has a recent discussion of this here : https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2019/02/12/ghcn-v3-3-regions-closeup-current-vs-baseline/

      Also 70% of the planet of oceans & seas with very few weather stations or records. That is the HUGE elephant in the Climate Warming ‘scientists living room.

      The weather records on land represent just 30% of the Earth’s surface.

      91

      • #
        TdeF

        Thanks but it’s about old data, not current stations. They are altering the past, not the present. In 1910, where were all the stations and who kept good records and who preserved those records? Argentina? Chile? South Africa? You will find, I expect, that it is Australia.

        Then when you extrapolate to cover the entire 1/3 of the globe with few measurements at sea, who has by far the greatest representative land mass? Reading the BOM defence, it is all about ‘lateral’ measurements, which means implying temperatures by extrapolation, valid or not. That is why individual temperatures are so wrong, as they are building a temperature map across the continent and then people are extrapolating that to the Indian Ocean, the South Pacific, the Southern Ocean and even the Timor sea and Coral sea. With 37,000km of coastline, Australia is far more significant than most countries for this.

        The pressure on the BOM to fit in with the global warming model must be immense. This may even start with the ministry. That’s how it works, if you want your promotion and your job. Everyone knows what has to be done. Maybe that is why the BOM is reluctant to even defend this repeat demolition job on good records.

        130

        • #
          • #
            TdeF

            Very interesting. As I suspected, at the start of our BOM records in 1909 we had far more thermometers than the whole of Africa and South America combined, at five times our area. There were few in the South Atlantic or South Pacific, a vast area.
            This sitation continued until after WW2.

            So the critical early 20th century data is mostly Australia, certainly below the Tropic of Capricorn. Assuming 1/3 of the planet contributes 1/3 of the temperature, artificially cooling old Australian records and heating new ones can fund Global Warming for years. Now why would anyone want to do that?

            171

          • #
            theRealUniverse

            Interesting but not surprising, note NOTHING almost in Africa before 1900! Mid 20th cent (before sat data) nearly nothing in Brazil around the Amazon rain forest.

            40

    • #
      pat

      TdeF -

      thanks for that. saves me trying to find the right words to say the same.

      80

    • #

      As John McLean showed, in 1850 HadCrudt4 only has one land station in the Southern Hemisphere and it’s in Indonesia.
      http://joannenova.com.au/2018/10/first-audit-of-global-temperature-data-finds-freezing-tropical-islands-boiling-towns-boats-on-land/

      50

      • #
        Bill in Oz

        Thanks Jo for that link.
        I missed it.
        Clearly it is not just our very own Bureau of Misinformation which is afflicted with dopiness. It is present in the UK as well ! In fact it seems BOM was infected . from the UK with this contagious dopiness.

        30

  • #
    Ruairi

    The Bureau’s chief priests now ordain,
    That recorded high heat can’t remain,
    So the colder it gets,
    On the old data sets,
    The more man-made warming would gain.

    210

  • #
    Brian the engineer

    For Clarity and Transparency they should print the original data beside the adjusted data.

    140

    • #
      TdeF

      I think they have been quietly building a map of historical temperatures across the continent for use by people like the IPCC for their Global Warming argument. No surprise there.

      As this is dramatically altering individual accurately recorded temperatures their excuse is that it is more ‘robust’ (code for fitting what they expect) and is better ‘laterally’ which means fits their smooth extrapolation model, not the data. The downside is that people might notice the model temperatures are up to 3C away from what was actually recorded, but hopefully no one will notice. Even Graham Lloyd of the Australia is calling foul. On the front page of the only national newspaper no less. That must be annoying for the BOM management who hoped it would go unnoticed. After all, ACORN has allegedly gone from perfect to more perfect, more ‘robust’. The only thing lacking is any reason at all for changing the raw data by so much.

      171

    • #
      Peter Fitzroy

      All the datasets are available from the BOM

      519

      • #
        TdeF

        That’s not data. That’s the result of an undocumented process. You could fiddle the numbers and publish your own if you like and much cheaper and equally impressive and unexplained.

        162

      • #
        AndyG55

        “All the datasets are available from the BOM”

        And ALL of them have been “ADJUSTED” to suit their pre-conceived warming bias.

        Its all part of the “homogenisation process”

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      • #

        The weasel word excuse, as I said above, the BOM makes all the data available — that’s “technically true” but when they give advice or issue press releases it is as if it doesn’t exist.

        That is not what we pay them for.

        132

      • #
        Bill in Oz

        The BOM exists to provide this information to us with any bloody fiddling !

        40

  • #
    Mark M

    Over 300 years of incompetence in thermometer reading … versus just over 100 years of BoM one-way carbon (sic) data fiddling?

    The first thermometers were called thermoscopes and while several inventors invented a version of the thermoscope at the same time,
    Italian inventor Santorio Santorio was the first inventor to put a numerical scale on the instrument.

    Galileo Galilei invented a rudimentary water thermometer in 1593 which, for the first time, allowed temperature variations to be measured.

    In 1714, Gabriel Fahrenheit invented the first mercury thermometer, the modern thermometer.

    http://theinventors.org/library/inventors/blthermometer.htm

    … including incompetence by erudite figures of Australia like Sir Charles Todd, or William Dawes amongst a long roll call.

    Was Matthew Flinders that incompetent and stupid, he couldn’t discern the difference of consistently placing a thermometer in the shade or the sun, or at the end of an airport runway??

    100

  • #
    Paul

    It would be interesting to see the trends when any 1880 to 1909 data available is added to the long-running stations? Even adding uncertainty or error bars to the early data.

    Also, would it not be more useful to leave all the raw data as is for each location, with discontinuities explained, and call the adjusted data, “Regional” or District” data? When the town station is moved to a local airport the continuity is broken and should not be used in a climate study.

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  • #
    George

    I think the BOM people who do the data homogenization would be well aware of the techniques and methods used by large bureaus overseas and follow suit.
    So we get this absurd extra cooling of the past with each dataset update from Bureaus around the world.
    Then keep the updates quiet but publicise the resultant warming as much as possible.

    61

    • #
      AndyG55

      IIRC, the “homogenisation” routines come from a guy called “Stott” who started at CRU (UK) then did a stint at Adelaide Uni, then BOM, then visited NZ, went tripping around the world showing them how to use it to create a trend.

      132

      • #
        Bill in Oz

        Andy, that comment is useful but too brief.

        Can you fill us in with . a bit more detail of this fellow Stott and his newly created ‘Homogenisation’..
        b
        By the way, I don’t like homogenised milk. So homogenising my climate is even more suspect.

        100

        • #
          AndyG55

          Sorry, someone else will have to chase up the details, pretty sure I have the basics correct though, except… P.A. Stott was at the UK Met Office, not CRU.

          Anyway, its all based on the wild assumption that temperature trend should be the same everywhere.

          Which is just a load of bunkum.

          50

          • #
            Bill in Oz

            Wikipedia has this
            “Peter A. Stott is a ‘climate scientist’ who leads the Climate Monitoring and Attribution team of the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research at the Met Office in Exeter, UK. He is an expert on anthropogenic and natural causes of climate change.

            He was a lead author of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group I report, chapter 9, for the AR4 released in 2007 and is an editor of the Journal of Climate.

            Peter has an undergraduate degree in Mathematics from Durham University and completed Part III of the Mathematical Tripos at the University of Cambridge. He was awarded a PhD by Imperial College London for work on atmospheric modelling of the environmental consequences of the Chernobyl disaster.[10] After his PhD he carried out postdoctoral research at the University of Edinburgh on stratospheric ozone depletion.”

            Ohhhh a mathamatician with no qualifications at all in the a weather arEA…….

            60

  • #
    Peter Fitzroy

    As posted by AndyG55, a couple of days ago
    “Before we go too far, it should be noted that BOM shows a trend of about 0.19ºC/decade from 1980 to 2010

    UAH Australia also shows a trend from 1979 – 2018 of 0.19ºC/decade.

    What UAH does show up is the distinct step change at the 1998 El Nino.”

    reading a Murdoch newspaper for science – in the dictionary that phrase is under the word ‘oxymoron’

    522

    • #
      Yonniestone

      Agreed, if anyone is going to know about morons its your ilk.

      141

    • #
      AndyG55

      When reading pfutz’s posts, look under the word ‘moron’

      Only warming is because of ocean and urban effects, so not CO2.

      Destroying real data by faking and mal-adjusting trends hides that fact in BOM’s fabrications.

      A Murdoch newspaper would be better than getting your science from Cleo or Cosmopolitan, like you seem to.

      Do you have any empirical evidence that increased atmospheric CO2 causes any warming or affects climate in any way???

      We are all still waiting.

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      • #
        Peter Fitzroy

        you might want to use a dictionary – as the word is not what you think it is

        516

        • #
          AndyG55

          moron means moron…. and you have to live with it.

          135

          • #
            Peter Fitzroy

            Are you sure?

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            • #
              AndyG55

              Yes, I am sure moron means moron.

              Stop your BS trolling.

              123

              • #
                Peter Fitzroy

                You are living proof of the old adage “when ignorance is bliss, tis follow to be wise”

                316

              • #
                AndyG55

                You must live in permanent bliss then, pfutz

                Because you certainly aren’t wise.. but deliberately and wilfully ignorant.

                And absolutely determined to stay that way.

                Do you have any empirical evidence that increased atmospheric CO2 causes any warming or affects climate in any way???

                We are all still waiting.

                152

        • #
          AndyG55

          Moron is a term once used in psychology and psychiatry to denote mild intellectual disability”

          Ok, so I got the “mild” part wrong.

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          • #
            Speedy

            You might like to consider “cretin” or “idiot” (in order of decreasing mental capacity) as alternate descriptions…

            Cheers,

            Speedy

            62

      • #
        Peter Fitzroy

        By this statement, you are in agreement that the BOM and UAH datasets are in rough agreement, congrats

        316

        • #
          AndyG55

          WRONG.. why do you have such issues with basic comprehension ?????

          BOM’s “homogenisation” destroys the actual data, so that you can’t see that nearly all the warming is coming from urban warming and ocean energy releases.

          Do at least TRY, instead of wilfully not understanding what was said, and twisting your lack of comprehension to your brain-washed miasma.

          Do you have any empirical evidence that increased atmospheric CO2 causes any warming or affects climate in any way???

          We are all still waiting.

          184

        • #
          Peter Fitzroy

          The datasets agree – how can one be wrong and the other right?

          415

          • #
            AndyG55

            Stop pretending to be so THICK.

            You must be pretending, even adam sandler was acting !!

            Do you have any empirical evidence that increased atmospheric CO2 causes any warming or affects climate in any way???

            We are all still waiting.

            In the mean time, stop your childish attempts at trolling.

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        • #
          yarpos

          just a bit of liberal word twisting “so you are saying that …..” style

          50

        • #
          Tel

          The Earth is roughly the same temperature all the time.

          Roughly.

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  • #
    markx

    Is there a mixup in titling/colurs of the second chart?
    It is doing my head in.
    An explanation would be much appreciated.

    50

    • #
      George

      Yes, I think if you changed the bar colours to blue, orange, red for each group of three it should make sense.

      30

    • #

      The charts are grouped in different ways on the x axis (which is potentially confusing), so to reflect that I tried hard to make the colors show minima trends were blue… maxima were red. Modern version of the data were stronger colors…

      20

      • #

        Markx, sorry, you were right. The key on that second graph wasn’t fully explanatory, and I’ve redone it to make it obvious.

        It’s much better now. I wish I had done it this way from the beginning.

        40

  • #

    While it’s important to expose the jiggling and juggling of data, we also need to avoid being sidetracked into a meaningless debate.

    The world warmed after the Migration Period, hence Medieval Warming.

    The world warmed after the LIA, hence Modern Warming.

    Is the world still warming since the cold trough of 1700 AD? Maybe. Can it possibly matter? Only if we assume that trends don’t end (in other words, only if we buy into the joystick science of literal-minded extrapolators).

    Nothing abnormal about the current interglacial. It’s garden variety. Nothing abnormal about any current warming blip. It’s garden variety. Sea levels? An expected dribble of rise since the 18th century. Garden variety. All clear and confirmed, with a few loose ends, by actual science.

    Remember, temps only go up and down. They don’t tap dance, play chess or collect stamps. Temps up a bit or down a bit. That’s all you get. It’s the most boring race there is and it’s unlikely one can even pick which old nag is in front right now in the short term. We should all be getting on with our lives. Conserve everything, apply commonsense at all times. In cyclone belts, pin roofs and maintain watersheds. That sort of thing.

    But don’t be drawn into arguments that the globalists want to have because they control the data and the communication of the data. Even if warming is occurring globally, it’s of no importance whatsoever. After we stress that point, then we can argue about what’s winning the boring race.

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  • #
    pat

    15 Feb: ABC: North Queensland rains trigger BOM special climate statement
    ABC Weather By Kate Doyle
    The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has released a special climate review, officially calling the rain in north Queensland “exceptional”.
    According to the special climate statement (LINK) this year’s event has topped the comparable January 1998 and January 1953 events, in terms of area averaged rainfall within the North Coast-Herbert rainfall division…

    It is difficult to oversell the amount of rain that has fallen in north Queensland. Places like Paluma, Woolshed, and Upper Bluewater got over two metres of rain in 12 days. For perspective, two metres is taller than Chris Hemsworth, the god of thunder himself…

    Interestingly, only a few daily rainfall totals were broken…
    “In and around Townsville, the accumulated totals from consecutive days of heavy rainfall were the city’s highest on record since records began in 1888,” the report said.
    The records for both the seven and 10-day rainfall totals were smashed.
    “In the seven days to February 4, 2019, the Bureau’s site at Townsville Aero recorded 1052.8mm, and 1257.0mm in the 10 days to February 6.”…

    Was climate change involved?
    While the report shied away from saying that climate change was definitely a factor, it said that it was “salient to consider” the role climate change played in record-breaking high-impact weather.
    “Natural variability in extreme rainfall in Australia is inherently very large, making it more difficult to discern climate change influences,” the report said.
    “Nevertheless, it is expected that a warmer atmosphere and ocean will generally lead to an increased likelihood and severity of heavy rainfall events globally.”

    As stated in the Bureau of Meteorology and the CSIRO’s state of the climate report:
    “For heavy rain days, total rainfall is expected to increase by around 7 per cent per degree of warming. For short duration, hourly, extreme rainfall events, observations in Australia generally show a larger than 7 per cent increase.”
    Draw from that what you will.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-15/queensland-floods-special-climate-statement/10816184

    6 Feb: 9News: Far North Queensland disaster appeal announced as flooding weather moves south
    by Matt Dunn, Luke Cooper
    The Bureau of Meteorology said as of Tuesday the region had received ***2199mm of rain over the past 10 days, which greatly surpasses the average yearly total.
    “Intensity has dropped significantly compared to the past 24 hours but the rain will not disappear until the weekend,” a BOM spokesman told nine.com.au…
    https://www.9news.com.au/2019/02/06/05/50/multimillion-dollar-cleanup-effort-underway-in-townsville-after-damaging-floods

    I still don’t understand why BoM would mention 2199mm for the “region”:

    6 Feb: 9News: Far North Queensland disaster appeal announced as flooding weather moves south
    by Matt Dunn, Luke Cooper
    The Bureau of Meteorology said as of Tuesday the region had received 2199mm of rain over the past 10 days, which greatly surpasses the average yearly total.
    “Intensity has dropped significantly compared to the past 24 hours but the rain will not disappear until the weekend,” a BOM spokesman told nine.com.au…
    https://www.9news.com.au/2019/02/06/05/50/multimillion-dollar-cleanup-effort-underway-in-townsville-after-damaging-floods

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    • #

      The falls on the Townsville region have indeed been whoppers, breaking a number of records well and truly. Despite my tendency to sledge those in the north, I know that Queenslanders will pick themselves up in brilliant fashion. They usually do.

      But I’m very curious about this mysterious agent called Climate Change. When extreme events or conditions come about we are told that, while one cannot automatically attribute them to this mysterious agent, nonetheless the event or conditions are consistent with the agency of Climate Change.

      It’s well known that Brisbane’s wettest month and wettest year lie back in 1893. Since then, nothing, not even 1974, has matched 1893 for rainfall, both concentrated and annual. Are we to assume that the mysterious agent Climate Change has yet to visit Brisbane? Is it more interested in making Townsville floods great again? If Brisbane were to experience local rain and flooding like in 1893 are we to assume it would be consistent with the mysterious agent Climate Change? While in 1893 Brissie was the victim of God, bad luck or stuff, kinda, y’know?

      While 1939 held the record for highest daily maximum for more than 70 years, was Climate Change missing Sydney appointments? Or was the 1939 record also due to stuff, kinda, y’know? If, God help us, we get a repeat of the 1955 floods, will it be Climate Change this time, while last time it was stuff, kinda, y’know?

      I ask this because, when I check, I find a lot of stuff, kinda, y’know lying back in the past. And I wouldn’t like the mysterious agent Climate Change to draw inspiration from all that stuff, kinda, y’know.

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      • #
        AndyG55

        Where the really big rainfalls hit on the North Qld coast is a lottery.

        You need to look at the whole region, and the recent rain was not particularly unusual.

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    pat

    15 Feb: The New Daily: The outlook for autumn is … more of summer
    Summer’s record-busting hot, dry conditions are likely to extend into autumn, according to the latest long-range weather forecasts.
    The weather bureau’s outlook for autumn (LINK), released this week, predicts warmer than average days and nights across almost the whole country from March to May.

    During the day there will be an 80 per cent chance of above-median temperatures, the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) predicted.
    “These warm outlooks follow Australia’s warmest December and January on record.”

    BoM said it predicted a 50 per cent chance of an El Nino developing during autumn – double the normal chance…
    However, the US National Weather Service says El Nino has already developed in the Pacific Ocean. The USNWS expects that pattern to continue for the next three months.

    Commercial forecaster Weatherzone says Australia and the US use different thresholds to define El Nino and La Nina (which brings wetter than average seasons). Australia’s thresholds are higher than those of the US.
    “There’s no doubting that the Pacific Ocean is in an El Nino-like pattern, and this could influence Australian rainfall during the coming months,” Weatherzone said.

    The weather bureau’s outlook warns that Australia’s climate patterns are being influenced by the long-term increasing trend in global air and ocean temperatures, as well as the natural El Nino drivers.
    It also predicts a below-average rainfall for northern Australia – parts of which are still recovering from a record soaking that brought devastating floods…
    The bureau says there has been below-average rainfall in south-eastern Australia in 24 of the 29 years since 1990…
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/weather/2019/02/15/bom-autumn-outlook-warm/

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  • #
    pat

    ***unusual vs a little unusual:

    15 Feb: North Qld Register: Dust cloud settles amid north Queensland flood clean up
    by Jessica Johnston
    A BLANKET of thick dust which lingered over North Queensland towns this week had blown in to the state from drought stricken New South Wales.
    The heavy dust settled over Townsville on Thursday, reducing visibility to 5000 metres.
    The mercury hit 39.2C in Townsville on Thursday, well above the February average and the dust added an extra level of discomfort to the oppressive heat…

    Bureau of Meteorology meteorologist Harry Clark said it ***was unusual for the dust to have blown so far north…
    “On Wednesday it entered southern Queensland and extended northward due to the wind to the north tropical coast and offshore.
    “It is pretty unusual at this time of year, we usually see it more in spring and for it get to Townsville is ***a little unusual…ETC
    https://www.northqueenslandregister.com.au/story/5907665/dust-cloud-settles-over-north-queensland/?cs=4770

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    pat

    16 Feb: Daily Mail: The untold story of Queensland’s flood crisis: Incredible photos show massive plumes of polluted water bearing down on the Great Barrier Reef
    •Plumes of polluted water off the coast of Queensland threaten Great Barrier Reef
    •Satellite images show the muddy, polluted water fan out from overflowing rivers
    •Scientists said the dirty plumes likely contain nitrogen and pesticide chemicals
    •Researchers said it’s not yet clear whether permanent damage has been done
    By Mark Brook For Daily Mail Australia
    Massive plumes of polluted water spanning the entire north coast of Queensland pose a new threat to the already endangered Great Barrier Reef…

    Scientists studying the marine fallout told ABC News (LINK) the water, which flows as far as 60km from the Queensland Coast, likely contains nitrogen and pesticide chemicals…
    Dr Frederieke Kroon, who leads the Australian Institute of Marine Science’s (AIMS) water quality team said the flood water plumes cover ‘an extraordinarily large area’…
    Dr Kroon said the flood water is only adding mounting pressure on reef coral, which is already stressed enough as it is as a result of mass bleaching events…
    A Bureau of Meteorology special climate review that was released on Friday revealed this year’s rainfall in Queensland was ‘exceptional’…

    Dr Kroon said researchers have sampled most of the plumes and recorded how far they’ve travelled, but it’s not yet clear whether permanent damage has been done.
    She said the only comparable flooding event to have a similar effect on the reef was Cyclone Oswald in 2013…
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6708755/Incredible-photos-massive-plumes-polluted-water-pose-threat-Great-Barrier-Reef.html

    above links to:

    VIDEO: 11secs: 15 Feb: ABC: Great Barrier Reef hit by ‘extraordinarily large’ muddy flood plume
    By Josh Robertson
    Forecasters late last year flagged a bleaching risk for parts of the reef next month, after the previous two summers saw consecutive mass bleaching events.
    But the unexpected influx of cooler floodwaters and prolonged cloud cover could mitigate the risk of underwater heatwaves baking the stressed coral, Dr Kroon said…

    “If you want to have a flipside to the story that would be one, yes, but it’s still a huge disturbance to the reef [after] the bleaching and the cyclones that we’ve had over the last couple of years,” she said.
    “The reef doesn’t even really get time to recover from any of these disturbances because it gets hit with something pretty much every year
    “It’s not catastrophic … but it is still an extraordinary event because we see flood plumes reaching definitely to the mid-shelf reefs and in certain areas to the outer reefs.”…

    The only other flooding event in modern memory with comparable scale to impact on the reef was from Cyclone Oswald in 2013, Dr Kroon said.
    “At the time, that was unheard of and so to have that happen again not that long afterwards is highly unusual,” Dr Kroon said…

    Australia is engaged in a reef conservation plan after battling to ensure the reef was spared an “in-danger” listing by the UN’s world heritage committee in 2015…
    Zoe Bainbridge, a research fellow at JCU’s TropWATER unit, said flood plume samples would be analysed in coming months and give clues about which areas onshore should be targeted to stop run-off…
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-15/great-barrier-reef-muddy-flood-plume-fears/10812910

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    • #
      yarpos

      About the only think extraordinary about having river outfalls in a monsoon region is our ability to get really cool aerial footage of it these days and be able to use it for a story.

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    • #
      markx

      “…plumes of polluted water…” Bloody idiotic reporting.

      Every single flood event has brown water. I grew up in a pretty well pristine narrow valley, with all the slopes heavily timbered, and every time there was a flood, it was brown water. If you ever wondered what created all the fertile plains that we so love to farm now, and where the farmers are held to blame for every brown plume of fresh water reaching into the sea, well,it was all the beautiful silt washing from the understories of the forest on the ranges.
      A lovely system really: the trees captured CO2 from the air, turned it into leaves and limbs which eventually became decomposing forest floor, then the next flood moved most of it into the valleys, creating fertile ground. And this went on for millions of years.

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  • #
    Geoffrey Williams

    This whole bussiness of temperature homogenisation is a disgrace. One day people may wake up to all this lying and cheating in the name of science. But don’t hold your breath !!
    GeoffW

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    pat

    behind paywall:

    Sydney’s electricity bill shock after record summer
    Daily Telegraph – 20 hours ago
    Sydneysiders are opening their electricity bills to news they’ve been dreading after a summer of record temperatures: four-figure power bills.

    Electricity bills: Energy prices double after record Summer heat
    Daily Telegraph – 21h ago
    It prompted the Bureau of Meteorology to issue a special climate statement in the following days, declaring the extended heatwave “unusual” as thousands of people…

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    • #
      RickWill

      Wait until SA gets their heavy duty hook-up to the NSW network. Then you will see bills being turbo-boosted as the imported intermittency takes its toll. That will encourage more rooftop solar and the death knell for Liddell.

      NSW turning SA as Victoria has.

      The silly part of all this is that SA now has a Liberal Government that is desperate to get the NSW link so they lower the cost of electricity in SA but sending their “when the wind blows” power to NSW, whether they need it or not. And the NSW Libs are as keen to take the intermittency.

      Queensland will likely be the last state to see prices reaching for the sky but its Labor government is doing all they can to ensure it eventuates.

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    David Maddison

    Remember that Tony Abbott (former PM for non-Australians) came very close to blowing the lid off the BOM data tampering but was stopped by his own cabinet, Greg Hunt being the chief vegetable to do so.

    And Lord Monckton warmed what might happen before the coup against Abbott.

    https://youtu.be/NG0WcjGHkEw

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    • #
      David Maddison

      Warned, not warmed…

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    • #
      Dennis

      It needs to be put in perspective David, PM Abbott was often opposed by Cabinet Ministers who supported the Minister for Communications, Turnbull, his Black Hand faction of the Liberal Party, the left of a party that was mainly centre right of the political spectrum traditionally. In September 2015 PM Abbott was voted out of the leadership and he was replaced by Turnbull.

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  • #

    Heading off to visit ROM at the Repat Hospital in 15 minutes. He’s doing well, medics say… Anyone wishing to send greetings, do so here and I’ll pass them on.

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    • #

      So, wind power will be low on Tuesday and Wednesday then, and lower again on the day after.

      Tony.

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      Bill in Oz

      If it gets over the Great Divide in Qld, it will bring flooding rains to the still droughted parts of inland southern Qld and northern NSW.

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      • #

        Bill In Oz,

        this (Wind Power Output) is something that is easy to predict at times like those indicated on the weather maps shown, and while some of you may think this is ‘crystal ball’ sort of stuff, I’ve noticed it happens every time.

        I even mentioned it in one of those daily power data Posts of mine back in June of last year.

        I have included the link to the Post below. Scroll down to the text under the daily graphs and totals, and in that text, there are two images, one of the weather map, and the other of the total for wind power. Click on both images and when they both open in new and larger windows, note the time on the weather map and then correlate that to the total at the same time for wind power.

        This isn’t a one off, as it happens every time a pretty big High Pressure Weather system hovers over that same area across Southern Australia, where there is the greatest concentration of wind plants.

        So, keep an aye out for wind totals on the Thursday.

        Australian Daily Electrical Power Generation Data – Monday 18th June 2018

        Tony.

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      • #
        GreatAuntJanet

        I’d appreciate that, quite a bit.

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    BoyfromTottenham

    Oh, the bOM link didnt work – but I like the red text!

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    • #
      pat

      Express is gung ho:

      15 Feb: UK Express: Cyclone Oma satellite images: Stunning NASA aerial photos show cyclone track to Australia
      CYCLONE OMA is a category two cyclone, churning to the east of Australia – and is expected to strengthen to category three in the coming days as it enters Australian waters.
      By Georgina Laud
      With maximum sustained winds of 69mph (60 knots) and gusts of 86mph (75 knots), Oma is measuring as a category two on the Saffir-Simpson scale…
      The dangerous weather system was tracking west-northwestward at a rate of 8mph over a time span of six hours…

      A number of computer models predict that Oma could continue moving towards the southwest during the first half of next week.
      This could allow the system to enter Australian Waters and their area of responsibility.
      If this happens, Cyclone Oma will keep its original name as the Bureau of Meteorology usually only assigns names to new systems that reach cyclone strength in Australian waters…

      Philip Duncan from Weather Watch warned Australians to pay attention to the cyclone.
      He said: “It is definitely a severe cyclone” and added everyone should get used to differing forecasts as the storm is likely to collide with a cold front tracking from the south which could cause increased rainfall…
      https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1087726/cyclone-oma-tracker-satellite-images-NASA-australia-Vanuatu-cyclone-aerial-pictures-JTWC

      15 Feb: Accuweather: Tropical Cyclone Oma to pass dangerously close to New Caledonia
      By Kristina Pydynowski
      Oma is currently a Category 2 tropical cyclone on the Fiji scale with 10-minute sustained winds of 111 km/h (69 mph). This is equal to a Category 1 hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean…
      It is possible that Oma loses its tropical characteristics but still targets New Zealand with heavy rain and strong winds the weekend of Feb. 23-24.
      Another scenario is that Oma does not get pushed that far south but targets the coast of southern Queensland and/or New South Wales in Australia around that weekend.
      https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/tropical-cyclone-oma-to-batter-vanuatu-with-wind-and-rain-new-caledonia-at-risk-early-next-week/70007408

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  • #

    It is NO surprise that the adjustments have uncovered higher increases in the minima than in the maxima, JUSTAS PREDICTED BY THE GLOBAL WARMING MODELS. Or is it that the models, which can’t actually reproduce a known climate year or decade and are therefore untested in any scientific sense, just “happen”to be correct??,

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    • #
      AndyG55

      Urban warming has that same affect. Holds warm air in the urban environment, warmer nights.

      Heck, greenies, and others actually design houses using the very same principle.

      Glass to let winter sun shine on interior mass concrete or brick walls, shaded in summer.

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    • #
      Peter Fitzroy

      Judith Curry would beg to disagree with you
      https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2012GL051644.

      I’m citing Judith Curry as she has garnered a lot of respect on this blog

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      • #
        AndyG55

        “All models show high prediction skill for surface temperature up to 6–9 years over the Indian Ocean, the North Atlantic and the western Pacific Oceans, while showing lower predictive skill over the equatorial Pacific and North Pacific Ocean. The AMO index is relatively well predicted in all models for the entire prediction period with a significant skill, while the predictive skill for the PDO index is relatively low for the entire period. ” 2012 !!

        Pfutz, why so far behind !!!

        Indian ocean: tick

        North Atlantic, was tick, now NA is cooling.. oops

        Western Pacific was tick.. now wrong

        near zero skill over most of the Pacific.

        AMO is rather easy to predict, fairly regular cycle. just build it in and pretend

        PDO: useless.

        It seems models are basically SKILL-LESS over anything but a very short period and in a large part of the oceans.

        The FACT that they cover such a HUGE range of “predictions” means that at least one might be correct on something at some point, just by PURE CHNACE, but to PRETEND this is skill is quite hilarious.

        But you knew that, didn’t you.

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        el gordo

        Curry is a lukewarmer, not that there is anything wrong with that.

        Her conclusion illustrates that ENSO remains an enigma.

        ‘All models show high prediction skill for surface temperature up to 6–9 years over the Indian Ocean, the North Atlantic and the western Pacific Oceans, while showing lower predictive skill over the equatorial Pacific and North Pacific Ocean.

        ‘The AMO index is relatively well predicted in all models for the entire prediction period with a significant skill, while the predictive skill for the PDO index is relatively low for the entire period.’

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        • #
          Peter Fitzroy

          I picked her, as she does go hard on the data and the methodology, to get a tick from her is significant.

          On the other hand I was replying to John Nicol’s initial statement that the models, which can’t actually reproduce a known climate year or decade and are therefore untested in any scientific sense, just “happen”to be correct??, (my bold). there are any number of papers which echo the result of Judith Curry’s, and some of the regional ones are very good indeed. That is to be expected.

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          • #
            AndyG55

            The models are all over the place.

            They individually have basically ZERO skill.

            COMPREHEND. !!!

            And anyone who thinks that taking the mean of a pack of zero-skill models is going to return anything close to reality except by PURE LUCK, needs to go back to primary school and start their basic education again.

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        • #
          theRealUniverse

          I dont know why they say its an enigma. The SUN with the planetry orbits controls the whole climate and all the oscillations, just need to look in the noise.

          20

      • #
        AndyG55

        In case you are having comprehension issues yet again…

        Basically what she is saying is that if you average all the wildly erroneous models, they give you something which has a small amount of skill at some times in some places.

        WHOOPY-DOOO !!!

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        • #
          Peter Fitzroy

          No – that is not what she said

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          • #
            AndyG55

            She used an ensemble of wildly erratic and divergent models to get a mean that just happened to be somewhere near reality in a few places.

            That is what she did, and what she said she did.

            wow, your comprehension skills are those of a two year old. !!

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            • #
              Peter Fitzroy

              if that was truly the case, then you could have pointed to the bit in the article where that was said. But you can’t can you?

              57

              • #
                AndyG55

                In the first paragraph, pfutz.

                “ENSEMBLE”…. what do you think CHIMP5 is !!

                A collection of miss-mashed models, NONE of which can be shown to be even remotely correct except over very short periods.

                Your comprehension and understanding skills seem to be non-existent.

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        Tel

        The article is largely irrelevant to long term predictions of minimum temperatures … but based on the conclusion of the Curry article:

        All models show high prediction skill for surface temperature up to 6–9 years over the Indian Ocean, the North Atlantic and the western Pacific Oceans, while showing lower predictive skill over the equatorial Pacific and North Pacific Ocean.

        So none of the models can predict a full decade, and some are significantly less than that.

        Since “climate” is defined only over periods of 30 years minimum, looks like all models are useless. Then again, Curry is looking at PDO with a natural 20 to 30 year chaotic cycle, and most climate scientists will tell you there’s no available model to predict where PDO will be in 30 or more year’s time (they also will tell you don’t worry about that).

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        • #
          • #
            AndyG55

            OMG, yes we KNOW it has warmed up.. NATURALLY.. since the LIA.

            THANK GOODNESS.

            Now, do you have ANY empirical evidence at all that this highly beneficial warming was caused by an increase in atmospheric CO2

            You are slithering and sliming in avoidance, like a demented eel, pfutz !!

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          • #
            AndyG55

            Did they use raw GHCN or “adjusted”

            Raw would have shown a nice peak in the NH around the 1940′s

            83

        • #
          Peter Fitzroy

          now that you have had the chance to read the article, I’m sure you would have seen this sentence

          Each decadal prediction consists of simulations over a 10 year period each of which are initialized every five years from climate states of 1960/1961 to 2005/2006

          55

          • #
            AndyG55

            Yep, they have to re-initialise every 5 years to keep it somewhere near reality.

            MAJOR divergence issues otherwise.

            Thanks for pointing that out, pfutz…… So funny !

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            • #
              Peter Fitzroy

              Raad the article – the did multiple runs each starting 5 years after the proceeding one. But then it would have to be on a cornflakes packet for you wouldn’t it?

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              • #
                AndyG55

                yep, re-initialised to a new starting point..

                Divergence issues in less than 10 years.

                And MISSED the mark in most places except the most simple of cycles.

                Anyone got a coin.. would be just as successful.

                And they expect us to believe they can go out 20, 30, 40 years !!

                ROFLMAO !!!

                So FUNNY !!

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        • #
          theRealUniverse

          The climate models cant work on earth data alone, even correct ones (which nearly ALL are not). They would require predicting ALL the Suns activity including CME flares AND sunspots and solar magnetic flux density and solar wind speed over 10 years. TOTALLY impossible.

          20

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      • #
        Bill in Oz

        Hey Giys, Fitzroy is getting clever. His quote by Judith Curry is from 2012.

        Judith Curry as a scientist is outstanding as she changes her mind depending on the evidence.

        Can you find anything more recent ( say 2015-2019 ) to support you thinking Fitz ?

        Go check her blog is a starting point.

        But make sure it is her who is saying it. She also puts up links to lots of other folks who she agrees with and also whom she disagrees with.

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        • #
          AndyG55

          Around 2012, she would have been classed as a “true believer”.

          She has now seen the light, mostly.

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        • #
          Peter Fitzroy

          Is you internet broken again?

          46

          • #
            AndyG55

            is your mind still broken?

            Do you have any empirical evidence of warming by increased atmospheric CO2, pftuz?

            Your avoidance and distraction routine is manic. :-)

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            • #
              Peter Fitzroy

              As far as I know AndyG55, I’m under no compulsion to run off and do your bidding.

              510

              • #
                AndyG55

                Oh dear, we have a pathetic piker in our midst.

                What a juvenile way of getting around your total incapability and total ineptitude in supporting even the most basic meme of your fetid little AGW religion.

                So funny watching your child-like evasion antics . :-)

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              • #
                AndyG55

                The simplest way to get out of that deep, deep hole you have dug for yourself would be to..

                ADMIT that there is no empirical evidence that increased atmospheric CO2 has any affect on temperature or climate

                Come on, be a man.. You say you know “science”

                Here is your chance.

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              • #
                theRealUniverse

                It isnt possible for a minute amount of trace gas to alter the climate. With or without any GHG hypothesis. The solar input in ALL energy, domains not just IR, is so many magnitudes more than any stupid human endeavors can muster. INCLUDING HARRP! (hot on the conspiracy lists)

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              • #
                el gordo

                Ocean Heat Content?

                30

              • #
                Kinky Keith

                Who does control you then?

                20

            • #
              AndyG55

              Ocean Heat Content.. Is a bit amount up from the LIA, but just a small squiggle in the last 60 years.

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        • #
          Another Ian

          Bill

          That is called name dropping isn’t it?

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      • #

        That was in 2012. Here’s Judith Curry, November 201in he post ‘Climate Models for Lawyers where she concludes that climate models are not fit for the purpose of simulating and predicting the evolution of the Earth’s climate.

        ‘There are literally thousands of different choices made in the construction of a climate model (e.g. resolution, complexity of the sub-models, parameterizations). Each different set of choices produces a different model having different sensitivities. Further, different modeling groups have different focal interests e.g. long paleoclimate simulations, details of ocean circulations, nuances of the interactions between aerosol particles and clouds, the carbon cycle. These different interests focus computational resources on a particular aspect of simulating the climate system at the expense of others.’ (P3)

        Question 2: concerning the reliability of GCMs: Problems arise from uncertainties in model structure, model parameterizations and initial conditions and from ad hoc modeling to compensate for the absence of neglected factors. Continual ad hoc adjustments in models, (calibration) masks underlying deficiencies in model structural form. (P5) And therefore model calibration to match 20th century historic temperatures is no metric for models’ accuracy and nor does agreement of models’ forecasts and hindcasts imply that a model gives a correct answer for the right reason. For example, the various coupled climate models used in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report each reproduces the time series for the 20th century but with different feedbacks and sensitivities producing different simulations.(P5)

        Question 3: A significant failing of climate models is their failure to understand the causes of global warming. Models’ assumptions of human – caused warming rely not only on the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere but also on how ‘sensitive’ the climate is to these increases. The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) defined as the change in global mean surface temperature at equilibrium that is caused by a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration was estimated by the International Panel on Climate Change, (IPCC) in 2007, to be in the range 2 to 4.5 degrees. Since then the uncertainty of the range has been increasing, the bottom of the range has been lowered from 2 to 1,5 degrees, and no best estimate is now given as a consequence of substantial discrepancy between observation lower best estimations of ECS versus the higher estimates from climate models.

        And ‘arguably the most fundamental challenge for climate models,’ says Judith Curry, ‘lies in the coupling of two chaotic fluids, the ocean and the atmosphere.’

        20

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    Dennis

    To be confirmed …

    “Soros was arrested in one of his hideouts in Switzerland on February, 3, 2019.

    Apparently he has been singing like a bird as he awaits his imminent departure to Guantanamo Bay prison to join his protege, Barak Hussein Obama.

    Soros has two sons who have been ‘trained’ to be just like their dad – apparently.

    I have no info on his two sons, but the head of the family will now face justice at long last – maybe their father’s execution will have an affect on his two sons?

    One can only hope.”

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    Speedy

    I think it was Maggie Thatcher who once said that we needed evidence based policy – not policy based evidence. Remind you of anyone we know???

    Cheers,
    Speedy

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    WXcycles

    Until there’s independent weather forecasting competition the dyed-in-the-wool ideologues at BOM will continue to have a monopoly on manufactured pseudo-data pulled out of the ether, and getting away with calling it the official national weather record.

    As they also have the monopoly on the sensors and observation instruments, no real competition will arise.

    Looks of deepest admiration as the Emperor’s hairy skin-tone NEW Clothes wobble on by.

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    pat

    15 Feb: Accuweather: Woman’s profane reaction to brutal winter leaves news anchors chuckling — and it probably will leave you laughing, too
    By John Roach
    Judy Ross didn’t hold back when asked if she was tired of winter.
    WGN Morning News in Chicago found the perfect interview subject to convey the feelings of area residents who are dealing with a historic stretch of 34 straight days in which precipitation has fallen — even if they had to bleep her.
    The city’s streak easily surpasses the previous mark of 19 days (LINK), with records dating to 1871. In addition to all of the precipitation, the Chicago area has endured a lashing of Arctic air brought down by the polar vortex in recent weeks, a brutal cold snap that caused a rapid increase (LINK) in ice coverage on the Great Lakes. The relentless winter is taking its toll.

    “You’re sick of this?” WITI reporter Bret Lemoine asked Judy Ross, who was shoveling snow on her property.
    “Well, yeah, especially when I’m the only one here doing all this s**t,” said Ross, of Waukesha, Wisconsin…
    https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/womans-profane-reaction-to-brutal-winter-leaves-news-anchors-chuckling-and-it-probably-will-leave-you-laughing-too/70007462

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      Bill in Oz

      Pat, I suspect that there are about 180 million Americans who can’t wait for some more of that ole time global warming to come back !

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    theRealUniverse

    So when is the ‘Royal Commission into Fake Metrological Statements from the Bureau of Metrology” going to take place?………….pfffffft!

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    pat

    10 Feb: Financial Times: Britain’s high electricity prices risk a ‘gilets jaunes’ backlash
    by Jonathan Ford
    Then we come to so-called “policy” costs, which account for £151 — or 12.5 per cent — of that £1,254 dual-fuel bill, or near 20 per cent if you strip out gas and just look at electricity. These are the consequence of the environmental policies the government has introduced to support decarbonisation, and are tacked stealthily on to customer bills.

    They are much stickier. Many relate to contracts struck with low carbon energy generators stretching far into the future, which guarantee fixed sums indexed to inflation, or pay an increment over the prevailing wholesale price. What’s more they are still growing as a proportion of customer bills. In 2015, the environmental bill was just £91 per household, according to Ofgem data.

    The ‘gilets jaunes’ movement in France shows that voters do not have unending reserves of patience for carbon taxation…

    As a recent paper from the energy economist Dieter Helm points out, that upward march will continue as more low carbon capacity comes on at relatively high fixed prices in substitution for gas and coal baseload generation. True, the latest offshore wind contracts are actually slightly below current wholesale rates. But they aren’t due to come on stream until the mid 2020s. Meanwhile, earlier pricier cohorts of legacy deals still need to be paid…

    High prices might be fine for those with cash and a big ecological conscience; the Tesla tendency, so to speak. But it’s not so great for those getting by on rather less. Note that the £1,254 cap represents about 10 per cent of the £12,000 of disposable income taken home by the poorest fifth of households in Britain. Add on another £400 a year for water and pretty quickly you have eaten nearly a sixth of your cash just to purchase the barest essentials of life.

    These legacy costs may have been incurred in the necessary task of starting the switch away from fossil fuels. But few would argue that the experiment has been wildly cost-effective. The government has backed technological horses — with predictable results. Lobbyists have run riot.
    The “gilets jaunes” movement in France shows that voters do not have unending reserves of patience for carbon taxation, especially when served up in this highly regressive form.

    So what is the solution? It is not as if these legacy costs can simply be wished away. One way would be to socialise them. Mr Helm suggests putting them in a “legacy bank”, which would be financed out of general taxation…
    Wiping the slate would not itself solve the challenge of ensuring future decarbonisation took place at lowest cost. But it would at least mitigate the burden of past splurging.
    That seems wiser than betting on the public’s concern about climate change, and hoping that it is matched by a willingness to pay whatever it takes.
    https://www.ft.com/content/503bbdf0-2bcd-11e9-88a4-c32129756dd8

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    pat

    Shellenberger puts the case for nuclear again:

    14 Feb: Forbes: The Real Reason They Hate Nuclear Is Because It Means We Don’t Need Renewables
    by Michael Shellenberger
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2019/02/14/the-real-reason-they-hate-nuclear-is-because-it-means-we-dont-need-renewables/#4771e1ff128f

    15 Feb: Reuters: French EDF’s shares slide on cautious outlook, dividend cut
    by Geert De Clercq
    Shares in French EDF fell almost 6 percent on Friday after the state-controlled utility cut its dividend and said there was no guarantee that it could repeat 2018’s double-digit core earnings growth.
    EDF forecast core earnings of 15.3 billion to 16 billion euros ($18.1 billion), below analyst expectations for about 16 billion and with the low end of the forecast range only just above last year’s 15.25 billion.

    (SEE CNBC LINK BELOW) “We are not sure some of the positive elements in our 2018 will be repeated in 2019,” EDF CEO Jean-Bernard Levy told reporters on a call.

    He said that besides exceptionally good hydropower earnings, 2018 trading results were also above what could be expected in a normal year, but added that wholesale power prices should be slightly higher this year…
    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-edf-results/nuclear-and-hydro-power-boost-edfs-core-earnings-although-finance-charges-hit-net-profits-idUKKCN1Q40KQ?rpc=401&

    ***for some reason, the “rain and snow” excerpt is no longer is most Reuters’ pieces in the MSM or on their own website:

    15 Feb: CNBC: UPDATE 2-French utility EDF shares slide on cautious 2019 outlook
    by Geert De Clercq, Reuters
    “We are not sure that some of the positive elements in our 2018 will be repeated in 2019, notably the very strong hydropower output, which depends on rain and snow levels,” EDF CEO Jean-Bernard Levy told reporters on a call…
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/15/reuters-america-update-2-french-utility-edf-shares-slide-on-cautious-2019-outlook.html

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      theRealUniverse

      “The Real Reason They Hate Nuclear Is Because It Means We Don’t Need Renewables” I think theres some weight to that statement. Modern as in recent nuclear power systems are much safer than the old style Chernobyl, Fukushima Eight Mile Island systems that went bang in the past. Waste is minimized and can be dealt with.

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    pat

    14 Feb: ClimateNewsNetwork: Savage heat engulfs temperate Tasmania
    by Kieran Cooke
    (Kieran Cooke, a founding editor of Climate News Network, is a former foreign correspondent for the BBC and Financial Times)
    One Australian state hit severely this ferocious summer is normally temperate Tasmania. A resident with vivid experience describes its ordeal…
    Climate change-related weather events have brought cyclones and raging floods to the north-east of the country, while drought and temperatures exceeding 40°C have resulted in parched lands and rivers drying up in areas of New South Wales…

    Critics of the Australian government say it’s clear climate change is wreaking havoc; meanwhile politicians continue to pander to the interests of the country’s powerful mining and fossil fuel industries…

    Mike Willson is a Tasmania resident, a fire equipment specialist and a volunteer with the Tasmania Fire Service. Here he tells Climate News Network what life has been like on the island over recent weeks.
    “There is menace in the air. Days full of thick brown smoke. The clouds of smoke have even been swept across 2,500 kilometres of ocean to as far away as New Zealand – itself trying to cope with its own forest fires.
    ***“A new phenomenon has arrived in Tasmania – lightning storms without rain. In one day in mid-January there were over 2,000 dry lightning strikes over the south-west and central highlands here, starting up to 70 bush fires.

    “Even with water bombing by planes and helicopters, the fires – which have already burned out 3% of the area of the island – are virtually impossible to control.
    “Dealing with these fires is like fighting a snarling dragon. Small flakes of grey ash fall everywhere. Embers can trigger spot fires several kilometres ahead of the main fire.

    “The fire can seem to disappear but still burns in logs and stumps. You have to always be on the lookout for tell-tale wisps of smoke. Walking across with a hose line to investigate, it’s a moonscape, the soil collapsing under your feet.
    “It’s like trudging through powder snow, sinking up to mid-calf in places, with the earth under your feet turning to hot dust. Aiming at a puff of smoke, the ground erupts and hisses like a volcano when we spray water.

    “It’s a giant, macabre game of cat and mouse. If conditions are right, a controlled back burn can effectively starve the fire of fuel, but then the wind might whip up and the fire can jump – even across large rivers and bays – and rampage on.
    “Luckily, so far there have been no casualties, and few homes have been lost. At least the drought and high temperatures have not come with very high winds – a cocktail for disaster.
    “Firefighter and helicopter crews are being constantly rotated – it all takes a considerable physical and mental toll.”

    In recent days rainfall over much of Tasmania has eased the fire risk, though the authorities are warning people that there is still a danger of further fire outbreaks.
    Among the areas threatened or partially destroyed by fire are the world’s largest remaining forest of thousand-year-old King Billy pines
    https://climatenewsnetwork.net/savage-heat-engulfs-temperate-tasmania/

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  • #
    Robber

    So what happens next with BoM data analysis?
    Seems to me we need volunteer analysts to take say 5-10 ACORN2 stations, one by one, document the “raw” data for minimum, mean and maximum, document the changes in station location and condition, and then examine all the BoM adjustments and error bars, and either validate or invalidate the changes. Aggregates across 57 or 112 stations hide the basic data. Show me just one station where BoM has got it wrong, and then they will have questions to answer.

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    • #
      George

      BOM needs to publish the audit trail for ACORN2 changes.
      All the information for why they made manual changes and what algorithm they used for automated changes should exist already –
      just make it public.
      I doubt that it is as complicated as they would like us to think.
      I don’t think they will release it though, because it could leave them more vulnerable to questions and criticism.

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    pat

    a BBC attempt to spruik EVs goes badly.

    BBC’s Rory, in intro: we find out if electric vehicles have reached the tipping point where they become realistic options for many motorists.

    presenter Rory and his guests don’t have EVs. one suggests she doesn’t need a car living in London; one admits she has a driveway, so could charge an EV at home, but bought a petrol car recently instead; and Rory just bought a VW golf petrol car, cos he lives in a terrace & wasn’t going to run a power cord over the footpath.

    EV segment begins at 11min52sec to 18min50sec – it ends with Rory saying still too expensive and too difficult.

    AUDIO: 15 Feb: BBC: Tech Tent
    Presenter: Rory Cellan-Jones
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3cswnml

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    • #
      theRealUniverse

      You need a 30 min charge for your car? “Publicly accessible ‘fast charger’ or ‘super charger’ outlets provide power to the battery at a faster rate. The rate of charge is usually from 25 kW to 135 kW and can recharge an EV battery in around 30 minuets.”
      And thats a small one! Some are up to 250kW PER CAR! (for 30 mins) Overnight is about 2.5kW for average familly car.
      Now for the reality: So say 10 cars at a charge station = 1.35MW! Say 100 stations charging at same time (as per filling with petrol) 135MW! Yes thats off the GRID! Thats continuous and probably underestimate I would go for GW of supply, continuous, needed to keep 100% EVs to replace liquid fuel. Thats not sustainable with wind puffs! Tony can probably add to that.

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    theRealUniverse

    They are going to have to make massive warming adjustments to cope with the new LIA approaching. How would they handle all the record cold in the US as of late?

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    • #
      OriginalSteve

      They dont care, as long as the population is deprived enough of electricity to maximise the cull of humans by cold…

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    Dave

    Also at Albany!

    The BOM is out of control!
    No error bars
    No Explanations
    No reason for 6.4 degrees Celsius adjustment!

    It is definitely time for a FULL AUDIT on the BOM by independent people!

    https://jennifermarohasy.com/2019/02/met-bureau-rewrites-history-again-at-albany/

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    lemiere jacques

    it is NOT science done by “scientists”..
    they will eventually add error bars but still “forget” to mention if all hypothesis we made are right…

    nobody yet can know what temperature was when it was not measured..period.

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    J.H.

    They’re a shameless mob. They are quite open in their pursuit of propaganda for funding rather than science for knowledge now….. I suppose that’s what happens when Government funds “Science”. It simply wants “Scientists” to produce “scientific justification” for their political agendas and there are “Scientists” quite happy to do that.

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    robert rosicka

    OT , just seen a clipping from a newspaper (supposedly 1994) saying an estimated one million cattle will be lost in roughly the same area near Cloncurry .

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    • #
      toorightmate

      Robert,
      Also, the Darling River at Menindee had a disgusting stench of dead fish.
      That was 1965.

      While on the subject of dead cattle, there has not been any ABC of Fairfax publicity about the thousands of head of cattle which perished in the Kimberleys earlier this year. The lack of publicity may have something to do with the “management” of those particular properties.
      Heaven help us if it had been a European or an Asian management group.

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        robert rosicka

        While there was one story I seen on the ABC about cattle there were many about horses dying , makes you wonder why they favour horses .
        Also noticed today the radical far left RSPCA are mounting a campaign against the murder of cane toads .

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  • #

    Quite apart from its useless forecasts of weather and seasonal outlooks, the BOM has been working hard to make itself into a total laughing-stock by re-writing the past temperatures which were accurately and diligently gathered by professionals.

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    Bill in Oz

    In case the are any readers who live in the Federal electorate of Mayo in South Australia, I have reposted much of the content of this article by Jo along with Jennifer Marohassy’s blog article (also posted today ) here :https://www.facebook.com/groups/144702239734255/

    It is totled : THE BUREAU OF MISINFORMATION ( BOM ) HAS OFFICIALLY MADE THE AUSTRALIAN CLIMATE COLDER – IN THE PAST !

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    robert rosicka

    Apparently BOM aren’t the only ones to make stuff up .

    Highest ever temp recorded in WA -

    http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/western-australia-continuing-to-swelter-this-summer-/529282

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    toorightmate

    If I was to write to ATO and inform that my salaries of past years were actually lower than my group certificates showed, they would send me a tax refund.
    This is not a joke.
    The analogy is real.

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    frederik wisse

    Nothing new here , let us move on ……. Nearly all meteorological datasets have been homogenised during the recent 10 years in the western world . The American [snip "malpractices"] were welldocumented by Tony Heller and NOAA is still manipulating the facts until today . The UK with their climategate stories by wellpaid scientists showed a clear snubbing of reality “the recordings were a travesty” and an excuse to alter the data .A jesuistic approach of the goal justifies the means to show the must of warming , which was not there in the recent records . In Holland the KNMI-instute fully funded by the taxpayer has downsized all measurements from before 1950 with approx 1,5 degrees Celsius and has been erasing all low temperatures that did not fit the narrative during recent years .I caught them twice inflagranti upon changing their low-temperature records last year and was of course treated with the usual silence . But is gets worse , nowadays my comments on WWUT and REALCLIMATE are rejected as SPAM , whilst there is nothing hateful about comments , I care probably to much about my fellowmen , which is obviously not appreciated . [SNIP In Australia section 18C means you cannot cause offense to any ethnic or racial group. We have no free speech -- Jo]

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    Dave in the States

    Why the constant adjustments? They will tell you that the measuring technology has changed (electronic vs mercury thermometers) and that there is a greater concentration of measuring locations in urban areas now. Many rural locations no longer exist.

    Here’s a problem: If they are to adjust for UHI and electronic measure they need to raise the past- not lower it.

    This is clearly about making up trends to fit the narrative. It is about getting sound bytes and catchy headlines. This is not science. It is a disgrace!

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    Win

    Has the BOM commented on the. closing of the holes in the Ozone layer and the corresponding rise in their temperatures alaysis? You could say ,if you thought like they do ,that holes in the Ozone layers are beat chimnies.

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    Bill in Oz

    The Bureau of Misinformation has stuffed up again !
    I just checked on it’s website. It says there are “NO CURRENT CYCLONE WARNINGS” here http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/

    But on it’s latest “Mean Sea Level Pressure map, there is Cyclone Oma at 966 out in the Coral Sea. :http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/synoptic_col.shtml

    And the BOM’s 4 days Colour Forecast maps show Oma heading straight towards Brisbane. http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml

    I suspect anyone not living in a Queensander type house will have an exciting time later this week.

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    Roy Hogue

    About one third of the warming of our mean temperature is due to man-made adjustments

    Without the man made adjustments and all the publicity attending them, would anyone notice a difference from one year to the next or one decade to the next? I doubt it.

    We would still have complaints about the weather but those have been SOP for the whole history of the human race. And so what? Where’s the problem?

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    Anton

    It used to be the future that was hard to predict. Now it is the past.

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      Speedy

      Oh, it’s predictable enough. The past will be what they tell us it was. George Orwell was right.
      Cheers,
      Speedy

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    Eddie

    Great slopes from little anomalies grow.

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    Aeronomer

    If it can’t be replicated (because no one can explain the full methodology) it isn’t science.

    This needs to be shouted from the rooftops loudly and repeatedly.

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  • #
    Aeschylus

    Jo’s above post is mentioned !

    Discussion on Power Line 47 comments
    Topic
    The Greatest Scandal In the History of Science
    COMMENTS

    Dan Ashley, MBA, PhD, PhD, CMA 42 minutes ago

    Dan Ashley here. PhD statistics, PhD Business.

    I am not a climate, environment, geology, weather, or physics expert. However, I am an expert on statistics. So, I recognize bad statistical analysis when I see it. There are quite a few problems with the use of statistics within the global warming debate. The use of Gaussian statistics is the first error. In his first movie Gore used a linear regression of CO2 and temperature. If he had done the same regression using the number of zoos in the world, or the worldwide use of atomic energy, or sunspots, he would have the same result. A linear regression by itself proves nothing.

    The theory that CO2 is a greenhouse gas has been proven correct in a small greenhouse only. As a matter of fact, plants like higher CO2 and it is frequently pumped into greenhouses because of that. There has never been a definitive experiment regarding CO2, at or near the concentrations in our atmosphere. This theory actually has much less statistical support than the conspiracy theories regarding JFK’s assassination.

    Gaussian statistics REQUIRE the events being published to be both independent and random. The temperatures experienced in one part of the world are dependent on temperatures in other locales. The readings are not independent. A better statistical method would be Mandlebroten (fractal). Mandlebroten statistics are not merely “fat tailed” statistics.

    A more problematic issue with the data is that it has been adjusted. Data adjustments are frequently needed –for example, if a measuring device fails. However 100% of the data adjustments used are in favor of proving global warming. 100%. Not 100% minus one adjustment. Not nearly 100%. 100% –that is ALL– of the adjustments were in one direction only. Any student that put data like that in a PHD dissertation would never receive a doctoral degree.

    One study published showed parts of the Earth where warming was occuring faster than other parts of the globe. The study claimed to be of data solely from satellites. The study identified several areas (Gambia for one) which have greater warming than other areas. Unfortunately, in three of those areas there have been no climate satellite observations for years.

    The statements that claim “less arctic ice in recorded history” are equally spurious. We started gathering data on that in 1957 with the first satellite fly overs. On this issue “recorded history” is a very short time period.

    Some geologist friends told me that a significant amount of Earth’s heat comes from the hot Earth’s core. They further stated that they do not know what percentage of heat that is. They do know it is probably over 20% and probably less than 70%. Whereas either of those extremes seems unlikely to me, remember that I am not a geologist.

    As to rising oceans, that should be measured accurately. Measuring it with a stick stuck in the sand is inappropriate. Geologists tell me that the land is shifting and moving. Measuring it against the gravitational center of the Earth is the only accurate way. However, we do not know how to do that. As a matter of fact, we don’t know precisely where the gravitational center of the Earth is. (Any physicists around that want to explain the two body and the three body problem as it relates to the Earth, Moon, and Sun, please do so.

    So, according to climate scientists the world is warming up. They may be correct, they may be incorrect. However, they have been unable to support their thesis via the use of statistics.

    I personally see no reason to disassemble the world’s economic systems over an unproven, and somewhat implausible theory
    1

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