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The hottest thing in SA and Victoria tomorrow may be electricity prices

Millions of dollars will be burning on electricity tomorrow

With normal hot summer days expected tomorrow price spikes are forecast.

It’s not that hot

These are hot, but not unusual days for the capitals — Adelaide is forecast to be 41C, the other capitals are tame: Melbourne 33, Canberra 39 and Sydney 30.  Though small inland cities are baking – like Albury at 44C.

South Australia could burn $36 million an hour

For South Australia tomorrow the AEMO is forecasting the state will need 2,800MW for 2.5 hours at $12,000/MWh. That could be $35m per hour.  Note that forecasts in electricity often vary quite a lot from actuals. Looking at the truckload of cash being offered (from a generators point of view) will presumably bring in some extra supply and lower that price.

SA Electricity cost, spikes, Jan 2019

Forecast prices for Jan 15th 2019 | AEMO

 

For Victoria, things are even worse

The AEMO is forecasting 9,000MW will be needed at $14,500/MWh for 3 hours. That’s $130 million per hour.   Hypothetically, it would be an obscene $390 million dollars just to power the state just from 3 – 6pm. Enough to buy an entire gas fired power plant and have it sitting around all year waiting for spikes.

 

VIC, Electricity cost, spikes, Jan 2019

Forecast prices for Jan 15th 2019 | AEMO

For those peak hours, if it hits the price cap, spike pricing would be 400 times more expensive than baseload brown coal.  The same $400m dollars could theoretically power the state for 50 days of non-stop electricity from brown coal stations like Hazelwood Power Plant (if only they hadn’t shut it). Though peak prices in midsummer are normally higher so it is not an apples to apples comparison. Note too: These are wholesale spot prices — there are other charges beyond this like the FCAS which will could rise tomorrow too. We are not even counting that.

It sounds outlandish but one two-day heatwave last year cost SA and Vic $400m dollars.

Could this week be the 2019 bonfire heatwave?

The AEMO has issued a LOR (Lack of Reserve) warning — Grade 2 for Victoria

There is a forecast LOR2 for Victoria in place at the moment. The AEMO says reserve available is expected to be 658MW but 978MW is needed. That’s 300 MW short. If the price is right (and it could not get more “right” without breaking the law) presumably there will be some new generation on offer. The availability and demand numbers can dance around a lot. This afternoon, the AEMO has issued two updates and curiously the situation has got worse with each update, not better.

But hey, it might be windier than they expect tomorrow, and then everything will be just fine.

UPDATE 10PM: Victorian LOR2 downgraded to LOR1. Expected reserve capacity now 1002MW. The required is 1090MW. The people in the control room must be very very busy.

 TonyFromOz explains that all our available coal power is running flat out. The peak today (Monday) was 32,000MW.

Forerunner to tomorrow was the Peak today at 5PM. Total power generation (therefore total power consumption) was 32300MW. There are currently three coal fired Units off line, (one in each State still with coal fired power) so the total available coal fired power Nameplate is 19600MW.  The total coal fired power being delivered at 5PM was 19200MW.

Add on natural gas fired power and the smaller Other sources, and the total CO2 emitting power on line delivering power at 5PM came in at 81.2% of that total.  Hydro was at 12.2, and wind and solar power combined was delivering 6.6%.

And tomorrow, they say it will be even higher.  Coal fired power is running at max already.

Hmm! Imagine if there was just one more coal fired power plant, umm, say even that ancient old clunker Hazelwood.

Take away coal fired power, umm, tell ‘em they’re dreamin!

Tony.

 Bear in mind years ago the real system peak was 36,000MW. Now it appears we can’t do that unless we get lucky. It’s a good thing those car manufacturers and smelters shut down…

VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
Rating: 9.4/10 (64 votes cast)
The hottest thing in SA and Victoria tomorrow may be electricity prices , 9.4 out of 10 based on 64 ratings

88 comments to The hottest thing in SA and Victoria tomorrow may be electricity prices

  • #

    Since both states have endured temps exceeding 50C (yes, Stevensons!) on multiple consecutive days (Mildura 1906, Oodnadatta 1960)…

    I guess they should have planned for some summer heat in 2019! (Unless those old events weren’t so much scorchers as derived values, or valuable anecdotes, or anecdotal derivatives, or isolated anomalies, or anomalous isolates. Or something.)

    380

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      I am dredging my memory but in 1962 in Adelaide the Chief Chemist and an Engineer went out in the noon day sun and measured the temperature at 42 or 44℃ and the Relative Humidity at 8%.
      It felt just as hot in the Laboratory (from the humidity), but the Lunch Room was air-conditioned. Long lunch time.

      140

  • #
    Robert R

    It doesn’t matter what happens, they’ll just roll out the fake news as they normally do and everything will be all right :)

    361

  • #
    Bodge it an scarpa

    It reached 40c at 1.30pm over here in Dixons Creek in the Yarra Ranges. No so mild afterall, but still not unusual.

    130

    • #
      Annie

      42C here Bodge. The birds were enjoying the dam water sprinklers under the fruit trees. I was enjoying the cooler air within and hoping for no blackouts! The electricity supply situation is plum crazy in a country that has such wonderful natural resources.

      210

  • #
    a happy little debunker

    I just love how the leftist & taxpayer-funded media preface these usual summer conditions as ‘low intensity heatwaves’.

    Propaganda can’t just spread on it’s own.

    272

  • #
    Kinky Keith

    Thanks Jo for putting this up, interesting to get an insider’s view of this corporate mess.

    Demolishing clean coal and replacing it with eco unfriendly wind, solar and the necessary gold plated transmission and localised frequency modulation installations plus the “backup” for the inevitable renewables fade out.

    Would it be possible to design a system more complicated or expensive??

    KK

    311

    • #
      Hanrahan

      Would it be possible to design a system more complicated or expensive??

      It’s as if God said “Hold my beer….”

      180

      • #
        ColA

        God?? ….. he has nothing to do with this mess ….. Short-a-ton to the rescue … up, up and $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

        70

  • #
    Hanrahan

    Haven forbid that a coal or gas gen-set should trip and cause shedding. THEN the headline would be all about unreliable conventional generation.

    Did I pick up that the big BassLink outage was caused by overloading? Best they resist that temptation tomorrow.

    250

    • #
      beowulf

      The Basslink outage was due to overloading and reversing polarity of the flow too quickly. The capacity has been reduced from the 630MW they were shoving through it down to around 500MW and they must now shut down and wait 5 minutes before sending power in the opposite direction.

      https://www.zdnet.com/article/basslink-subsea-cable-outage-caused-by-exceeding-design-limit-experts/

      I hope this isn’t a cretinous question, but extrapolating from the above polarity reversal issue, when solar panels are pushing large amounts of power backwards into a system that was only ever designed for a one way flow in the opposite direction, does that reversal place undue strain on the more complex components in that system? In other words I’m asking about the effects of flow reversal rather than merely the effects of spikes and troughs caused by random solar generation.

      180

      • #
        Graeme No.3

        beowulf:

        As far as I know the output from roof top PV solar only goes as far as the local transformer, hence is used in the same suburb. How I don’t know but suspect it is because it is only single phase.

        80

        • #
          OriginalSteve

          Power flow will only occur out from panels because they crank up the voltage at the inverter over the voltage in the mains.

          Now imagine lots of panels in a suburb, each trying to shove power out to sell it…you will have eventually chronic over-voltage situation developing and everyone loses.

          Just another hidden trip wire in the Great Panel Debacle……

          150

        • #
          Steve Richards

          No.3
          The transformer does not know where the electric is coming from, highest voltage wins!

          If the voltage from the panels is higher than the incoming voltage on the other side of the transformer (using the turns ratio) then the higher voltage will force power onto the grid.

          70

    • #
      beowulf

      Thank you all for the replies. Supplementary question.

      Does anyone know why our standard grid voltage was dropped from the 240V that had served us for 100 years, down to 230V + or – 10V? Was it merely a reflection of the reality of our existing voltage or was there more to it? Does the drop have implications with the “back-pressure” from solar generation if the inverters are not tripping until 253V?

      50

  • #
    Ian1946

    An interesting article about an issue that is never discussed in the MSM.

    http://www.aweo.org/windconsumption.html

    It appears that the 30% of nameplate that we have assumed is generated by wind turbines may only actually be 15% unless the 30% figure includes running costs. From the arguments in the article it appears that lifetime power produced by a wind turbine will never be greater than the manufacturing and maintenance costs.

    260

    • #
      yarpos

      That would require actual investigative journalism and a desire to publish the results that may be counter narrative. I dont expect either would happen.

      140

    • #
      amortiser

      South Australia can never achieve its nameplate for wind generation on any particular day no matter how good the conditions are.

      Below is a response I received from AEMO regarding a query I made regarding capping of wind generation that I noticed.

      Apologies for the delayed response – we have a system for responding to web queries that doesn’t seem to have forwarded on my response.

      Thanks for your enquiry.

      You’re right in observing that under certain circumstances, the cumulative generation from wind farms in South Australia is constrained.

      This occurs because AEMO (the operator of the power system) needs to maintain sufficient fault levels in the power system. Fault levels in the power system (also known as system strength) are provided by synchronous generators such as gas-fired generation, hydro and coal-fired generation. Sufficient amounts of fault level are needed to keep voltages within acceptable operating limits. As such, AEMO is sometimes required to limit the amount of wind generation, particularly on windy days, so that there are synchronous generators online providing fault levels.

      This document published by AEMO provides more detail on the circumstances in which it will constrain the amount of generation coming from wind farms – https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/Files/Electricity/NEM/Security_and_Reliability/Congestion-Information/2018/Transfer-Limit-Advice—South-Australian-System-Strength.pdf

      If you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to get back to me via email or phone. And apologies again for the delay in replying to your questions.

      Kind regards,

      Declan Kelly
      Australian Energy Market Operator

      90

  • #
    Annie

    Presumably you meant ‘windier’ rather than ‘winder’ in the last sentence Jo?

    —-
    Ahem. Yes. Thanks Annie. :- ) Jo

    30

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      Well in Victorian glorious socialist republic, we get patriotic victorians to stand in front of windmill and blow to make turn, yes?

      See, plenty of power…..!!

      141

      • #
        sophocles

        … or fit a crank handle to each one which everyone can take a turn at winding.
        Hey, look! A wind generator (almost) reaching nameplate! Who needs wind?

        51

      • #
        Another Ian

        O S

        Well for supplementary power there is also that limmerick – -

        00

  • #
    OriginalSteve

    The only thing hotter than the profits, will be Victorians tempers venting at Comrade Dangerous Dan and his Commie band…..

    151

  • #
    Mal

    It will be good to see load shedding and, blackouts and manufacturing closing.
    It will be better to have it this summer before any more coal powered stations are closed and before the next federal elections.
    If enough people are hit in the hip pocket and are blacked out then the the outrage by the taxpayers and industry will be real
    We, will then see how the fake news media and the politicians respond
    If Labor gets in then the damage they inflict will be so great, Australia as we know it, may never recover.
    The irony of course is there will never be a utopian green paradise, but China, India or Indonesia will walk in and takeover.
    It interesting as you get older you are far more pragmatic and see through ideology and all the consequences that are self evident if due diligence had been carried out

    260

  • #
    Vladimir

    Were there any serious attempts to compare outcomes of Y2k campaign and the anti-GW struggle?
    Obviously, we have not yet seen the end of current one.
    However, I heard few times during 1st week of 2001 that the main reasons why the Humanity survived was diligent work of the specialists involved and, of course – international cooperation.
    We were happy to get new computers and PLCs, tons of code was triple checked, some – improved, so there was a positive side to it…

    70

    • #
      AndyG55

      There is NO positive side to the AGW scam.

      The environmental devastation from wind turbines, and toxic mess from solar panels will be with us for a long, long time.

      Fortunately, they have been totally ineffective at reducing global CO2 emissions

      Their socialist totalitarian globalist agenda is, unfortunately, being more successful, mainly due to a rampant socialist press and gutless conservative politicians..

      171

    • #
      Serp

      1999 was a lucrative time for IT in that everybody had a job preparing for y2k and then it was followed up by the GST introduction and everybody worked again the subsequent year.

      On the evening of the year change from 99 to 00 I was paid a thousand dollars for ten minutes work loading a couple of backup tapes for an in-house financials system. With hindsight I realize I should have demanded ten times the offered sum but I was grossly naive back then to the point that I believed all the global warming guff, but nobody took y2k seriously excepting management who had everything to lose if the impossible actually happened.

      120

  • #
    Antoine D'Arche

    “But hey, it might be winder than they expect tomorrow, and then everything will be just fine.”
    That sounds like farming, another weather dependent venture.
    If it rains this month, the grass will grow, I won’t have to de-stock, I’ll have more stock to sell, and I might be able to make payments on the mortgage and machinery. And eat.
    Jesus, have we not learned anything from living on this continent?

    150

  • #
    Hivemind

    “could theoretically power the state for 50 days of non-stop electricity from brown coal stations like Hazelwood Power Plant”

    Have they dynamited it yet?

    50

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      The great book “The Loaded Dog” comes to mind :-)

      30

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      The great book “The Loaded Dog” comes to mind :-)

      10

    • #
      Serp

      The green zealots are directing their attention to Loy Yang now Dan’s successfully sabotaged Hazelwood.

      This ignorant-and-proud-of-it crew, whose population is epidemically increasing, has vowed to have no rest until coal is neither burned nor mined anywhere in Australia; it appears that this is what can happen after thirty or forty years derogation of an education system to the point that the worst ranked students are now being trained as teachers.

      131

    • #

      Hazalwood was not dynamited when I drove past in late August. There were minimal staff.

      60

      • #
        AndyG55

        I wonder if they are turning the turbines regularly.

        Hopefully just keeping then spinning slowly to stop bending.

        31

      • #
        Annie

        Hazelwood still had masses of coal available. I spoke to one of our sons earlier about the proposed closure of Yallourn (March?) and he said they had run out of local supplies of coal; the reason (? excuse) it is closing? If that is the reason, why cannot Hazelwood coal be shipped there…it’s not far; very near by Australian distance standards.
        After all, we ship massive amounts to China and elsewhere, do we not?

        60

  • #
    mareeS

    Gosh I hope there are mad blackouts, just to prove point.

    121

  • #
    John of Cloverdale, Western Australia

    Last year, over the 2017-2018 break, I went for a holiday in Albany, WA. It was freezing for a Perth resident like myself. I thought I would check Albany’s max temp for tomorrow: 19 deg Celcius.
    Yep, still freezing!

    80

  • #

    Inundate yr political masters with letters re above COSTS. Letters to the Editor. Purchase yr gilet jaune in preparation for the Protest.

    90

  • #

    Forerunner to tomorrow was the Peak today at 5PM.

    Total power generation (therefore total power consumption) was 32300MW.

    There are currently three coal fired Units off line, (one in each State still with coal fired power) so the total available coal fired power Nameplate is 19600MW

    The total coal fired power being delivered at 5PM was 19200MW.

    Add on natural gas fired power and the smaller Other sources, and the total CO2 emitting power on line delivering power at 5PM came in at 81.2% of that total.

    Hydro was at 12.2, and wind and solar power combined was delivering 6.6%.

    And tomorrow, they say it will be even higher.

    Coal fired power is running at max already.

    Hmm! Imagine if there was just one more coal fired power plant, umm, say even that ancient old clunker Hazelwood.

    Take away coal fired power, umm, tell ‘em they’re dreamin!

    Tony.

    220

    • #

      Thanks Tony. I’ve added your comment to the post.

      Years ago the real system peak was 36,000MW. Now it appears we can’t do that unless we get lucky. It’s a good thing those car manufacturers and smelters shut down…

      170

  • #

    UPDATE 10PM: Victorian LOR2 downgraded to LOR1. Expected reserve capacity now 1002MW. The required is 1090MW. The people in the control room must be very very busy.

    https://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Data-dashboard#nem-dispatch-overview

    160

  • #
    Richard Ilfeld

    Sometimes we lose sight of the fact that the folks in government are essentially immune from their errors.
    If an industry is regulated, and there is a failure, even if the industry followed the regulations to a “T”, the
    fault is with the industry, not the regulators. If the industry pleaded with the regulators to make changes necessary in hindsight,
    lack of foresight is never accepted by the regulators; inadequate intensity of political pleading because a crime.

    So, in California, PG&E is near bankruptcy. Having been prevented by a regulatory thicket from securing their long distance lines (in most of the country these run in a wide clear-cut barrier area), they are liable for the fires that ensued, their lines being deemed the cause. And the consequences of inadequate preparation for repetitive fires, sometimes of natural causes, that plague the areas impacted.

    When the Rube Goldberg contraption that is now the power grid created in homage to Gaia, rather than to provide dispatch power in the amounts a complex society requires, will anyone in the public sector bear an ounce of accountability?

    I’m not bothering to look out for flying pigs.

    130

    • #
      • #
        Annie

        I don’t see what else the company can do. They do have obligations but should not be made the scapegoats when mandated lack of clearing played such a huge part in the tragedy.

        50

      • #
        beowulf

        While we’re on the subject of power authorities causing fires, let’s not forget the contribution of the Infigen wind farms in Oz which have to date caused 2 major bushfires, burning out thousands of hectares, destroying farm buildings and homes and killing livestock.

        Not a murmur about their culpability. Protected species.

        80

    • #
      Kinky Keith

      No doubt we have a similar problem in Australia in that preparation to minimise the effects and spread of Bush fires is not permitted.

      I like the term “regulatory thicket”, it conveys the image of a large area of drought stricken bush just waiting to go.

      KK

      90

      • #
        yarpos

        Can you genralise like that? we constantly see Ausnet contractors cutting back trees from lines, the main power lines to/from NSW that come through here cut a big cleared swathe through the country side, we have laws (now) in VIC that let you clear back from your house and boundary.

        I guess there are still a lot of PITA council rules though depending where you are

        61

        • #
          Kinky Keith

          Hi Yarpos,

          I’m pleased to hear, that following the deaths of 170 people, there are now laws in Victoria that might stop that in future.

          Here in NSW our local area was blacked out for 10 days as a result of predictable situations involving trees overhanging lines.

          More recently substantial areas of bushland near housing and a nursing home, has gone up and been effectively uncontrollable, because of a failure to clear combustible material on a regular basis.

          I didn’t mean to talk down line maintenance crews if that’s what you thought. They are just following instructions.

          The problem lies with our local, state and federal governments not managing things properly.

          KK

          80

        • #
          Annie

          I agree that Ausnet are being pretty conscientious about tree-trimming along power lines.
          However, the roadsides around here are a disgrace Yarpos, as is the centre of our village. We have a quite long frontage that is pbysically impossible for us to clear; it is full of scrub, fallen wood, long cured grass and wombat holes. Technically we can clear two metres along our fenceline. Getting to it through the council/Vic Roads neglect would be a help.
          A friend further down the road said roadsides were kept clear around here during her childhood, with some large trees with clean trunks. Not any more. After the 2009 fires there would have been a chance to re-establish that for the roadsides, but no, despite all those deaths and loss of livestock and property. It is as if certain people want all that to hapoen again.

          60

        • #
          beowulf

          In Australia it’s the ground fuel loads that cause our bushfires. Different areas are subject to different jurisdictions where the rules also differ.

          This happened a few years ago in Maitland municipality NSW. Our local rabid greenie family (they chain themselves to coal trains; the daughter appeared nude on top of a pile of coal on the steps of NSW parliament etc) wanted to extend their mudbrick house which sits in the middle of a heavily timbered area. As it was a bush block, part of the building permit process was that the local bushfire officer had to do a site inspection before work could proceed.

          He took one look at their place and issued an order that the overhanging gum trees would have to be cleared back for a 100metre radius before any extensions could happen.

          Mother greenie was apoplectic. She was going to the council; she was going to the premier; the prime minister would hear about this; there would be protests; the UN might be called in. Hell hath no fury like a greenie ordered to cut down a tree, let alone 50 trees.

          And the upshot . . . the house extensions got put on hold indefinitely.

          100

  • #
    Richard Ilfeld

    sorry, “becomes a crme”

    30

  • #
    NB

    Not sure what the problem is. Voters in Victoria have shown they love this, and just want more.

    141

    • #
      PeterS

      And so apparently does the rest of Australia given the way the federal politics are going. Time to stop voting for either major party but who is listening? Let’s all sing, dance, take drugs that were tested to be “safe” and go over the cliff together.

      90

      • #
        Kinky Keith

        Peter and NB,

        That’s the situation we have to confront.

        A society with No direction, no values, no leadership.

        We are being exploited by a group of Leaders whose sole ambition is to squirrel enough money away that they will be able to retire comfortably in New York, well away from us.

        KK

        110

    • #
      robert rosicka

      Looking at the AEMO dash board yesterday it stood out that some states struggle to generate enough power for themselves , this is compounded if not windy and too hot .
      I’m wondering how much water is left in the Tasmanian dams for hydro because it’s being used as a battery now for quite a while .
      As for me I’ll be running every electricity eating appliance I can again today just to help out .

      72

      • #
        AndyG55

        “I’ll be running every electricity eating appliance I can”

        I won’t do anything special.

        Probably turn on the air-con in the study if it gets too warm.

        Even though I an all LED for lighting, my general electricity footprint is about that of a 3 person family anyway.

        Two powerful computers on line always, other stuff in the shed etc etc. :-)

        61

      • #

        I revisited the AEMO dashboard after your comments Robert, and after roaming across the state forecasts and data, came across this little gem in the links –
        https://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Participant-information/Current-participants/Solar-and-wind-energy–confidential-data-for-public-research
        - the dodgy output from wind and solar plants are “confidential”, even when they are taxpayer funded in construction, their useless output must be accepted by the “grid” whenever it deigns to turn up, and they get a bonus LREC payment collected secretly from all electricity consumers! The whole mess is outrageous, but now it’s “confidential” as well? Always in the past recipients of taxpayer funds had to provide a public report on where the money went. Not so now apparently..

        110

        • #
          robert rosicka

          I have noticed that on critical days the AEMO curtails the wind subsidy farms .
          Just in case our third world grid that relies on luck crashes I’m dusting off the generator, maybe both of them .
          Just as well it’s school holidays and some industries have moved overseas .

          91

  • #
    Robber

    At 7.30 am on this high 30s day in Vic, wholesale electricity prices are already at $157/MWhr with demand at 5450 MW. No duck curve forecast with solar at midday (too hot for solar?) with midday demand forecast 7430 MW and price $450. Late afternoon peak 8800 MW and price $14,500. Total AEMO peak demand forecast to be 33,800 MW. Wonderful cheap wind delivering 900 MW.
    Yesterday’s average prices Vic $175/MWhr, SA $170, NSW $145, Qld $98.
    I wonder whether any academics will do a study to show the impact of removing Northern (450 MW) and Hazelwood (1600 MW). There were reports that the closure of Northern added $250 to consumer electricity bills. Essentially, cheap coal was replaced by high priced gas and occasionally intermittent wind. And in Victoriastan, the government said it would only add $44 to bills. Later reports suggested the increase was more like $160.

    90

    • #
      Robber

      Now just after midday on this relatively hot day (Melb 29, Adelaide 33 with many areas in high 30s), total AEMO demand currently 28.5 GW.
      Wholesale prices are currently $265/MWhr in NSW, $285 in Vic, SA & Tas both $270, Qld $107/MWhr.
      Forecast late afternoon peak demand is 33.8 GW.
      So another 5 GW of generation has to be found.
      At yesterday’s peak generation of 32 GW, coal delivered 19, gas 7, hydro 4, wind 1.6, solar 0.4.
      And that Liddell coal station AGL plans to close was delivering 1.6 GW

      70

      • #

        Note that at that ancient Liddell plant, where AGL has said they will close it, they have finished the Upgrades to all Units and all four of those Units are running when needed for around four or five hours a day at around 400MW each, which is around the maximum for them, mainly due to the boiler standards and not the actual generators.

        And, umm, if you were planning to close the plant any time soon, why would you even bother doing what is obviously very expensive Upgrades on them if you can’t make money from them.

        Hmm! Surely it’s not a case of saying one thing and doing another eh!

        Tony.

        130

        • #
          Hanrahan

          Meanwhile, Qld is exporting 1.1GW that’s $330,000 an hour income from NSW.

          But Plucka-chook seems hellbent on killing this golden goose [coal and gas royalties are the only bright spot in her budget] by installing more and more unreliables.

          50

          • #

            Her mouth might move when she is saying the words, but there is no way they will kill off coal fired power.

            One of the main findings to come out of the State’s 50% Renewables by 2030 Enquiry was that they “Quote” Will not be closing ANY of the State’s coal fired power plants by that date of 2030. “Unquote”

            That target CANNOT be achieved without closing more than 60% PLUS of the current coal fired power plants.

            Tony.

            70

  • #
    Zigmaster

    Is it just me or is the weather reporting on the TV becoming more alarmist . It seems like 2 days in the 30s in summer is now a heat wave and they then say that it’s going to reach into the 40s in Northern Victoria or Oodnadatta or wherever they can find in Australia where it’s hotter. Are they trying to set up AGW alibis to push the alarmist “ get rid of coal “ agenda of the Greens.
    Even sky news seems to be getting in on the agenda. It’s likely TV watchers have no memories, it’s hot almost ever time the Australian Open is on. I remember 60 years ago when returning to school the weather was always scorching hot.

    140

  • #
    Robber

    And note the colours on their weather maps – above 30 degrees and it is reported as a frightening red. While above 40 degrees and it looks like all of central Australia has been burnt to a crisp (click on Wed afternoon and refresh.
    Surely a more balanced view would be to show temps in the 20s as a refreshing green or blue, but those colours are reserved for temps of zero and below.

    110

  • #
    Mark M

    Here is a link to a beta Australian energy generation application I found at green grifter Simon Holmes à Court @twitter …

    https://opennem.org.au/#/all-regions

    30

  • #

    My prediction is that we will all be thinking about how Tasmania calculates its electricity worth and what percentage of hydro is “green”as opposed to “renewable”.

    Is it time to build the Gordon-below-Franklin Dam?

    Also is it time to re-evaluate ALL the dams that were not built or improved due to things that matter far less than birds and bats killed by wind turbines?

    Is it time to build the ones that will never fill again until the next flood levee tax?

    80

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      If pumped storage is the answer to storage and wind electricity is “cheap” then have lots of turbines pumping water back up hill.

      We could call it the Sisyphus process and put in for a big subsidy.

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        “Sisyphus” May as well just use rocks there are plenty of hills and them.
        I think the batteries only look like they charge off wind but are really charging off what ever is available from the total.
        At 19:00 on Tuesday here you can see the S.A. battery charging while the distillate is running. At 3:30 and 12:00 you can see it charging while the imports are high. Go back to Friday at 20:30 and it is charging while the imports are nearly four times as large as the wind.
        https://opennem.org.au/#/regions/sa

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      “My prediction is that we will all be thinking about how Tasmania calculates its electricity worth ”
      Looking just now (5:24 PM EST) and the AEMO NEM dispatch overview tab shows the Tasmanian price while exporting 478MW as $13.35
      Now at 5:28 PM it has gone back up to $231.30
      The S.A. price remained steady at $320 as did the QLD price at $105.69

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    yeah, 39 s not that hot. I’ll go about my business as though it is 24. I should only worry about temperatures once they are as hot as the record in some other place.

    btw 39 in Canberra is rare. I’ve been here about 25 years and it has only topped 40 twice, both times in the last 5 years.

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  • #

    Gee Aye. Climate cycles are much longer than the trend lines used to measure their slopes. Gone are the days when Canberra would get hot for long periods. It should happen again sometime unless CO2 negative climate sensitivity and wide frequency response contracts the diurnal range.
    January 1939
    6th 36.2
    7th 38.7
    8th 39.3
    9th 39.2
    10th 41.1
    11th 42.8
    12th 39.8
    13th 41.9
    14th 40.8

    Your prediction for Saturday is Cool change. Shower or two. Possible rainfall: 1 to 4 mm Chance of any rain: 60%

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    • #

      Those Canberra temps of 1939 highlight just how rash it is to assume anything about climate. The Sydney temp which broke the 1939 record max was very brief and localised (though very severe for the city if you check the other Sydney sites).

      Despite 1938-9 being a La Nina year flanked by ENSO neutral years, the heatwave in Jan ’39 remains Australia’s most lethal natural disaster…and that’s not including the fires. Not only did the pre-UHI Obs record a temp just below that of 2013, but the heat was a disaster over much of the state.

      The most severe extended heat I’ve experienced was in Sydney 1960, the worst short burst was back around 2003 on the midcoast here. But if you were’t in Western NSW in Jan of 1896 you don’t know hot, right?

      But some just feel entitled to a certain climate and a certain narrative. As I’ve said before, many of these people live in inner-urban areas and wear scarves in summer for some reason. Maybe that’s a part of the prob?

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    robert rosicka

    Water storage of Tasmanian hydro sitting at 38% , could they run out again and I wonder at what level they pull the plug into Victoriastan?

    https://www.hydro.com.au/

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    Rupert Ashford

    “It’s a good thing those car manufacturers and smelters shut down…” And so we will bring our “emissions” under control, one lost job at a time…while bringing in 190 000 more souls every year…

    120

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    el gordo

    ‘As domestic users battle a shortfall in gas supply, new sources of production are being largely shipped to customers in Asia.’ Oz

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    Environment Skeptic

    Cool !
    The BOM website has been seemingly, at least to me, been making it up as they go along…third time they have changed their Melbourne forecast today lol wish i had taken some screen shots.
    ….for today and some back pedaling on tomorrow and the following days…..ummm…on the cooler side.

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    MrGrimNasty

    According to the BBC you are all boiling alive.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-46886798

    00