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John Cook, we’ll believe you when you stop doing what you complain we’re doing

John Cook tries to attack skeptics for their savage jokes about cold spells. Go for it John, we’ll believe you when you when you stop publishing stories about single hot days and tell PhD’s they shouldn’t harp on about random noise like heat waves:

Forecast: flurries of shivering climate-change deniers

When a cold spell struck the east coast recently, US President Donald Trump tweeted “Wouldn’t be bad to have a little of that good old fashioned Global Warming right now!”

The argument he is sarcastically implying and often makes—that global warming isn’t happening because it’s cold outside—possesses an obvious logical flaw. [No kidding]. It’s like arguing that the sun no longer exists when it gets dark at night. Of course, Trump didn’t invent this argument—it’s commonly brought up on denier blogs and social media threads whenever the weather turns cold.

This type of fallacious reasoning is not just common on believer blogs, it’s their bread and butter.

Trump was being sarcastic. Skeptics are making jokes — but what excuse can anyone make for paid PhD’s who are serious?

Let’s swap the hot’s and cold’s of Cooks own words (mine bolded):

The argument PhD’s seriously imply and often make—that global warming is happening because it’s hot, flooding, extreme, drought-striken, rainy, windy, wavy or otherwise not exactly average outside—possesses an obvious logical flaw.  It’s like arguing that any weather we get must be caused by our coal plants because we can’t think what else might have caused it.

Worse, it’s like saying that every bushfire, bleached reef and reckless fish is evidence that your car is changing the climate.

Believers are, after all, the true stars in this world of turning random noise and spurious correlation into pretend evidence. It’s not just something they do anymore, it’s their main strategy. After telling us for years that weather is not climate all the half baked evidence they had fell apart. The ice core result came out backwards. The hot spot went missing. The temperature trends slowed. The seas didn’t accelerate and Antarctica ignored them. All they have left now is relentless Pavlovian hammering of the “hottest X years of the last ten years”. That, and the agitprop linking every change in local beach sand, migrating crocodiles and jellyfish plagues to fossil fuel emissions.

Perhaps Cook is worried that skeptics might get serious about doing what alarmists do, and beat them at their own game.

Maybe Cook recognizes the hypocrisy (but only a bit):

But climate deniers don’t hold a monopoly on mistaking weather for climate. It’s human nature. Psychologically, our brains are structured to react to our immediate surroundings, and we’re more susceptible to experiential learning than scientific data. To demonstrate our immunity to abstract statistics, let me explain with some abstract statistics.

Daily weather drives climate attitudes. A number of scientific studies have explored how daily weather influences our attitudes toward climate change. One 2013 study published in Weather, Climate, and Society, for instance, examined a series of surveys measuring people’s agreement with the scientific consensus on human-caused global warming. One of the factors influencing climate attitudes was the temperature on the day of the survey and the previous day. On unseasonably warm days, people were more likely to agree with the scientific consensus that humans were causing global warming. On unusually cold days, not so much.

 But instead of advising alarmists to use good reasoning he says use the fallacies:

 Communication strategies that highlight local climate impacts have the potential to help people better understand how global warming is already affecting their lives.

 None of the unvalidated, unaudited climate models is able to predict any local impact with any skill. Changes on the Sun could have caused all the warming we’ve had since 1680 and the climate modelers wouldn’t have a clue. When climate models include solar magnetic  solar wind and changing UV and Infra red they might start working. Til then, Lotto!

Dear John Cook, learn how to reason. Waving sticks at every random weather event and claiming correlation is causation is what witchdoctors do.

 Great moments in John-Cook-reasoning

 

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259 comments to John Cook, we’ll believe you when you stop doing what you complain we’re doing

  • #

    The question Cook needs to answer, but can’t, is how can the Earth distinguish the next Joule of solar energy from all the others, so that the next W/m^2 of forcing, solar or otherwise, can contribute 4.3 W/m^2 to the surface emissions increasing the average temperature by 0.8C, while all the others only contribute 1.62 W/m^2 to the surface emissions?

    It’s like he doesn’t understand that 1 Watt is 1 Joule per second.

    220

  • #
    AndyG55

    It should be pointed out that Cook’s PhD is in a subject area totally unrelated to any actual science.

    He basically knows NOTHING.

    382

    • #
      Greg Cavanagh

      I didn’t know he had a PHD. I just know him as a failed cartoonist.

      191

    • #
      John in Oz

      Having a PhD is the take-away point, regardless of its applicability.

      Flim Flammery has a PhD in palaeontology yet he is the darling of the pro-CAGW crowd.

      211

    • #
      AndyG55

      IIRC he has a psychology PhD which he got under supervision of Lewendowsky

      It would truly be a WORTHLESS piece of paper. !

      191

    • #
      Dennis

      Cartooning?

      30

    • #
      Curious George

      https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/01/29/anti-gmo-attitudes-study-nature-2019/
      “People who most intensely oppose genetically modified food think they know a lot about food science, but actually know the least, according to a peer-reviewed paper published in January in the journal Nature Human Behaviour.”

      Applies to Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming as well. I propose a new Murphy’s Law:
      The strength of a belief is inversely proportional to the amount of knowledge.
      (An older formulation, please excuse me for presenting it in an original sexist form, is “A man with a watch knows what time it is. A man with two watches is never sure.”

      181

      • #

        A man with a watch can always find North!

        Tony.

        140

        • #
          Geoff Sherrington

          As Boy Scouts we were taught a method something like pointing the hour hand in the direction of the sun to find North on a line bisecting the hour hand and the noon mark.
          Then I discovered that the Manual was written for Scouts in another Hemisphere.
          Alas, failure to note this in the manual was the start of my sceptic career.
          When I tried to teach our sons this method, their watches did not have hands, they had LED displays. Another fail for the Boy Scouts.
          When I tried to teach the method to our 8 y o grandson, he looked at the Apple Smart Watch on his wrist, pressed a couple of buttons and got a map of his locality with North shown. Boy Scout method failed again.
          Tony, help me, there is a lesson in this somewhere, but I can’t crystallise it.
          Keep well Geoff.

          160

          • #
            Greg Cavanagh

            A solution to a problem is relative to when and where you are in time and space?

            Any given solution to a problem is only relevant for current technology (age)?

            60

          • #

            Perhaps more accurate is finding due South from The Southern Cross.

            Bisect the Pointers with an imaginary line, then trace an imaginary line through the long axis of Crux and where the two (imaginary) lines meet, drop a line vertically to the surface of the Earth and that is due South.

            And surely finding North with a digital watch is easy. Just imagine the time on what would be an analog watch, and use the same principle.

            Tony.

            50

            • #
              Kakola

              I’m Canadian. I once had a job in Tasmania. While waiting for the crew bus one starry midnight, I asked the rest of the guys which stars were the Southern Cross. Nobody knew.

              30

        • #
          toorightmate

          John Cook may have a watch, but he is NOT a man.

          51

      • #
        sophocles

        It certainly applies to “extreme” weather …

        10

    • #
      sophocles

      He’s a psychologist so he should know a-a-a-a-a-a-l-l-l-l-l-l about propaganda!
      And how to write it.

      (You’ll notice I didn’t mention his Ph.D then, although, in a way, it is relevant: to propaganda.)

      160

  • #
    yarpos

    It seems there is a whole Dunning-Kruger effect thing going on. Some alarmist mouthpieces spout nonsense and believe they are totally credible world experts, when even casual examination shows inconsistency, hypocrisy, collusion and occasionally fabrications and lies.

    241

    • #
      Allen Ford

      John Cleese has pegged the Dunning-Kruger effect aptly, as “the trouble with stupid people is that they are too stupid to realise how stupid they really are

      110

  • #

    I tend to think Trump’s argument is more factually, or evidence, based. If the northern winters are incredibly severe, or the arctic ice cap isn’t disappearing and hasn’t changed materially in the last 40 years, the seas haven’t risen by metres etc, then where is this global warming?

    430

    • #
      PeterS

      Global warming has been occurring ever since the ice age peaked. It’s all natural and nothing to do with man-made CO2 emissions. That is real science.

      330

      • #
        Greg in NZ

        “Global warming has been occurring ever since the ice age peaked troughed.” Brief warm peaks versus long cold troughs, yet Warmageddonists have their snouts firmly planted in the financial trough (conjures an image of people with their heads buried in the sand/muck/slime/filth while squealing, “See! It’s settled!”).

        100

        • #
          PeterS

          When I said “peak” I was referring to the peak in the % of earth’s surface covered by ice and snow. I get your point though. Thanks.

          80

  • #

    Great article Jo. “Deniers” commenting on extreme cold weather events is really a response to CAGW alarmists perpetually pointing to minor meaningless warm weather events as proof that not only should the blatant theft occurring through high electricity prices continue, but “it’s worse than we thought”, and the robbery needs to accelerate. When we point to these cold events we are not making a case ourselves so much, as pointing out they are wrong, using there own strategy against them because its obvious. You put this very well in your article.

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    • #
      Allen Ford

      If George Orwell were still around, I am sure he would have made an addendum to his famous quote, ““War is peace, Freedom is slavery, Ignorance is strength,” cold is hot!

      100

  • #

    You people in Australia must be suffering from hot weather
    and can’t think straight about modern climate science.

    Here in Michigan USA, our weather forecast for tomorrow
    is below zero F. for THE ENTIRE DAY, which could become
    a record for January 29.

    Now I’ll ‘splain that there modern climate “science” it to youze:

    Unusually cold weather = that’s just weather

    Unusually warm weather = climate change

    Any other unusual climate event = climate change

    Conservative / Republican scientist makes prediction,
    and it turns out to be wrong
    = he is a stupid head scientist !

    Liberal / Democrat government bureaucrat “climate scientist”
    makes same wrong prediction 30 years in a row***
    = he is climate scientist genius !
    .
    .
    .

    ***
    Climate computer games with apparent ECS of about +3.0 degrees C.
    has been used for forecasts since 1979, in spite of the fact that actual warming
    over that period, based on weather satellites, suggests an ECS (or at least TCS)
    of +1.0 degrees C., per CO2 doubling, not +3.0 degrees C. !

    How stupid is it to make
    the same wrong climate prediction every year,
    for 30 years in a row ?

    My climate science blog,
    ‘splaining the science and politics
    of climate change,
    in simple language,
    with almost 30,000 page views so far:
    http://www.elOnionBloggle.Blogspot.com

    302

    • #

      The new temperature arising from another 1.62 W/m^2 of surface emissions arising from 1 W/m^2 of forcing when starting from 288K becomes 288.30K, for a sensitivity of 0.30C per W/m^2 which when multiplied by the 3.7 W/m^2 of equivalent forcing said to be equivalent to doubling CO2 becomes 1.11 C and not 3C.

      112

      • #
        Bobl

        Yes, that is true, the IPCC forecast of 3.3C for 3.7Watts per square metre of forcing breaks the law of conservation of energy at the earth’s surface as that 3.3 degrees would give rise to almost 16 Watts of additional surface emission. It’s impossible, they go on to say that this will cause 5% more evaporation which would extract 6 Watts per square meter of the 3.7 Watts per square meter leaving a Nett of -2.7 Watt forcing – truly, according to the IPCC global warming causes global cooling! That without considering energy extracted in ice melt, intense storms, warming oceans, extra photosynthesis, and a myriad of other energy draining effects that are all supposed to be simultaneously powered by the same 3.7watts. Yes energy can change form, but alas the same energy can’t be in 17 different forms and places at the same time.

        John Cook believes in this energetically impossible poppycock with all his psychobabblistic heart.

        60

        • #

          Yes, they deny the applicability of COE.

          This arises from the broken feedback model which fails to account for COE between the input forcing and the output of the model. Bode’s analysis applied by Hansen/Schlesinger and others doesn’t conserve energy between the input and output because the model assumes an implicit power supply. It also assumes an infinite supply thus the output power is not limited by COE constraints with the implicit supply either.

          For those who incorrectly believe that the Sun is the implicit power supply, know that the Sun is neither infinite nor implicit, but is an explicit forcing input, thus COE must be applied between the input and output of the model and it is not.

          The consensus is confused because the climate feedback model is considered incremental with an output expressed in degrees. This violates another precondition for using Bode’s model, which is strict linearity. This means that incremental, approximate linearity between W/m^2 and temperature is woefully insufficient for applying Bode which requires the absolute gain and the incremental gain to be the same.

          There can be no doubt that misapplied feedback is the root of all that’s evil at the IPCC/UNFCCC.

          20

          • #

            CO2 not Evil:
            The pipe dream of a water vapor positive feedback
            changes a theory of mild, harmless global warming
            from greenhouse gases, into “dangerous” global warming.

            Since the goal was to “prove” dangerous
            man made global warming, something was needed
            to amplify what was estimate from the lab experiments
            on CO2 (mild, harmless warming assumed to happen
            in the troposphere).

            The feedback theory was / is needed to scare people.

            That’s why it is used in climate models,
            except one Russian model.

            And that’s why the actual measurements
            are about one-third the warming
            that climate models predict –
            obviously because there is no
            water vapor positive feedback
            to triple warming expected
            from CO2 alone.

            Making the same wrong prediction
            for 30 years in a row is frightening
            – not one leftist seems to care that every
            prediction of warming (and the many
            scary climate change fairy tales)
            is WRONG !

            10

        • #
          Tarquin Wombat-Carruthers

          Hey, just because John and his cohorts (Flannery, Suzuki, Gore et al) haven’t been right EVAH, it doesn’t follow that they might/could be/won’t be right someday! They’ll keep the faith, no matter what!

          /sarc

          20

    • #
      AndyG55

      “must be suffering from hot weather”

      nah.. luvin it ! :-)

      121

      • #
        Greg Cavanagh

        It’s summer. What did you expect on a Sunburned Country?

        It is a bit dry though, this being the wet season and all. Oh well, I’m sure it’ll make up for the dry in the next two months with some flooding rains.

        180

      • #
        Greg in NZ

        ” ‘must be suffering from hot weather‘ nah.. luvin it ! :-)

        I second that from across the ditch, and could even go another 2 degrees thanks…

        Spaceweather (dot) com are calling for a blast of solar wind, arriving 31 Jan / 1 Feb, from a returning coronal hole on the sun’s surface: mere coincidence (“just weather”) your BoM is calling for snow to 1,000 metres in Tassie on Thur 31 Jan, and our Met is calling for snow on the tops Fri 1st Feb (wind chill dropping to -22˚C on Mt Aspiring). Should pleasantly ruin NIWA et al’s claim of HOTTEST NZ HEATWAVE EVAH!!! yet I can ‘feel’ them preparing the scary, apocalyptic, it’s-all-your-fault headlines for press release now.

        My 2019 CCC™ observed/recorded tally so far: Snowfalls 4 : Cyclones 0. By the 1st of February this could be Snowfalls 5 : Cyclones 0. C’mon Huey, send us some waves!

        110

        • #
          sophocles

          Summer has finally arrived in the Shaky Isles. How do I know?
          The cicadas are finally out … only 6, six, SIX! weeks late! February starts the day after tomorrow.
          We are told we are having a heat wave.
          What? Where? How?

          The cicadas don’t start until temperatures are around 27 – 28 °C or more. And they are usually in full chorus (deafeningly so) one to two weeks before Christmas Temps from well before Christmas until last weekend, the end of January, have all been in the low to middle 20s — 20 – 25 or so. It took a while before I realised just what it was that was wrong with our summer.

          The NZ Herald jumped into the fray making enquiries, note this: about New Zealand’s potential heat wave. They breathlessly told us about the temperature in the Wellington suburb of Kelburn (love that decimal point!) for about 10 minutes this afternoon. Really? Wow! A whole ten minutes! So what? It’s not hard to spot why! UHIE couldn’t possible have any effect there. The Cable Car is on the Eastern side of Wellington Harbour so looking west across Kelburn Park, Wellington city and harbour)

          The cicadas made me say that… Richmond, a small town in the north of the south island next door to Nelson supposedly had a new record high temperature of 35.3 °C. You can see that great big wall of rock to the south (southeast really) of it, cutting off all cooling breezes.

          We’re being warned about melting tar seal on our roads. Oh come on. I’ve spent two weeks every year for the last forty years riding my motorcycle around the north and south islands at this time of year. Melting tar seal? Really? Like it hasn’t melted like this every summer before this one? Well, sometimes it was better but that wasn’t all that often! So why now?

          Heat Wave. Who’s kidding who? Those cicadas tell me otherwise… the heat and humidity are about right for the time of year. The melting tar seal happens every summer. Heat wave? Nah. Summer in NZ. Some people need to harden up. I’ll be off for another one in two weeks time … so I’ll get a personal feel for it <<big wide grin<>.

          100

          • #
            sophocles

            Oops. The Kelburn temp got lost in my enthusiasm: it touched 30.3 °C for those 10 minutes.
            Here’s yesterday’s NZ Herald’s article about our (potential—their word) “heatwave.”

            Oh no:

            Auckland also hit 30C, the first time it has passed that milestone since the same time last year. The warmest place was Whenuapai, which reached 30.3C.

            My emphasis. Yep, I’m about five-six km south due of Whenuapai. The cicadas were really making merry.

            60

            • #
              sophocles

              … south due … ha. That should read due south .
              I’m having a really good day of it … must be the heat! :)

              Just for the record: it’s a really nice day out there. AK City peaked at 28° and is at 27.6° (==28°) at present. West Auckland is listed at 32 °C so that’s why the cicadas are so happy. No breeze outside and relative humidity is 55%. A Nice Day.

              40

            • #
              theRealUniverse

              Jan 2009 was also a few 30 days in Auckland I remember. Anyway I now think below 27 is Antarctic stuff ;)
              Below 20 in QLD is ice time!

              30

              • #
                theRealUniverse

                Humidity in AK is worse than Brissy. Even at lower temps.

                10

              • #
                sophocles

                theRealUniverse said:

                Humidity in AK is worse than Brissy. Even at lower temps.

                It’s all too often Auck-humidity-land.
                Sounds like you have spent some time in Auckland.

                I’ve spent one day in Brisbane. It was in the last week of July and temperature was about 22&deg C;. To my Auckland acclimatization, it was a lovely shirtsleeves only day. That didn’t hold for the Brisbane natives.

                February in Auckland is all too often an uncomfortably warm and very humid time. I’ve seen humidity in Ak in Feb at 88 – 92%. That’s when those who work in refrigerators are considered lucky. Even at the low low temperature of 25°C one just does not want to move when it’s like that. You can work up a sweat just twitching a finger.

                20

    • #
      Graham Richards

      Richard,
      Very good explanations, great blog site. One thing you’ve missed. Is the vegetative growth in all but one of the world’s governments. Guess we could solve that with a good weed killer!

      60

  • #
    toorightmate

    Good to see Cook being called out for what he is – an idjit.

    192

  • #

    Freezing in the US while heat+drought in Oz? It’s unprecedented…except for 1888, 1898, 1914, 1940…well, you know the rest. Then there was the time the US had a legendary cold wave and legendary heat wave in the same year – 1936.

    If only the past would go away. If only there was nothing to check. Then everything could be more everything than anything all the time. They wouldn’t have to say it’s worse than they thought because they wouldn’t have to think.

    Why should the New Man at Year Zero be required to think?

    301

    • #

      If only the past would go away.

      Well, the Left in many areas is doing exactly that, erasing history. At the current rate, we’re not far off burning books to get rid of the last physical records of history, as electronic records are already being erased or changed. And history, of the factual kind, has all but disappeared from schools.

      270

      • #

        BOM have taken a leaf outta Orwell’s Book. The past is whatever you want it to be – on demand. And not just the BOM doin’ it, certain universities and PHDs’ manufactured data, guvuhmints too. Down the memory whole, create new scenarios, seen it in the US with Mueller Investigation and Kavanaugh Trial…

        241

    • #

      There’s only so much energy to go around, so when one place is hotter than average, another is necessarily colder than average. This is why they call it an average.

      180

    • #
      Ken Stewart

      They call us Climate Deniers?
      They are the History Deniers.

      171

      • #
        Another Ian

        Ken

        Two approaches to history:-

        “Of the events of wr, have not ventured to speak from any chance information, nor according to any notion of my own. I have described nothing but what I saw myself, or learned from others of whom I made the most careful and particular enquiry”

        Thucydides, “The Peloponnesian War”

        “I’ve just jazzed mine up a bit” Milligan, World War II.

        Spike Milligan “Rommel? Gunner Who?”

        120

  • #
    Mark M

    There is nothing funny about the predicted apocalypse, (which is here, now), unless you’re laughing at the failed predictors.
    (see Homer Simpson)

    And so, here we are laughing at 97/100 ‘missed by that much’ John Kook Cook, courtesy of President Trump. Winning.

    President Trump tweets, dripping with the sarcasm as obvious as the icicles outside the window, and the doomsday believer’s heads explode with claims of weather is not climate:

    US government scientists correct Trump over climate change statements: ‘Winter storms don’t prove global warming isn’t happening’

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-twitter-climate-change-global-warming-us-weather-polar-vortex-cold-a8751641.html

    But, here is UN-IPCC scientist and 2013 director of the Australian National University’s Climate Change Institute, Prof. Will Steffen:

    “Previously, ”weather is not climate” was the mantra, but now the additional boost from greenhouse gases was influencing every event.”

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/climate-change-a-key-factor-in-extreme-weather-experts-say-20130303-2fefv.html

    They both can not be correct.

    Either it is every event, or just 3 day heatwaves, or it is nothing.

    Also, I mentioned the pause just once, (now) and I think I got away with it.

    241

  • #
    Ed Bo

    I am increasingly coming to the conclusion that for alarmists like this, it is a religious argument right out of the Old Testament. The earth was an Edenic paradise before we tasted the forbidden fruit of fossil fuels. Now we are cast out for our original sin, and are paying the consequences. Everything bad that happens and is possibly weather related is our punishment for this.

    233

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      Or, its the ages old anointing the ( greenist ) priestly class to be “infallible in all matters of faith & dogma”.

      The roman church still does this, despite its faith being 95% pagan, 5% christian when you boil it all down, but to maintain the facade, it needs to pronounce in a thunderous voice, the infallibility of the pope, as being beyond question.

      I mention this as it cult-like behaviour and relevent.

      Notice the roman church too is walking hand in glove with the climate debacle.

      “Can two walk together lest they be agreed?” ( Amos 3:3 )

      FYI – Christianity doesnt get caught up in infallibility, Christains know they make mistakes, but adhere to their faith and dont thump the table in dogmatic fashion, ratehr teach in a quiet & peaceful manner. There is room to interpret the Book, as long as key tennets of faith adhered to.

      92

  • #
    Ross

    Maybe someone should send Cooke this Drudge Report headline ( but tell him to sit down before he reads it!)

    https://www.drudgereport.com/

    90

  • #
    John Robertson

    “Perhaps Cook is worried that skeptics might get serious about doing what alarmists do, and beat them at their own game.”

    Should not be difficult anyone with a functioning braincel and a sense of humour is already ahead of the game.
    When is Cookie going to join the Union of Concerned Catastrophists?
    Better be soon or they will consider him a scab.

    Worse though we do not have to invent,The Emperor’s New Clothes,Chicken Little or any of the old tales that caution us about being easily gulled and terrified of shadows.
    Mass hysteria and vast competitions to be “Victim of the week” are nothing new.

    150

    • #
      Yonniestone

      “anyone with a functioning braincel and a sense of humour is already ahead of the game.” Living proof right here thank you.

      However the most consistent character trait lacking amongst warmists is humility, they can start right here reading back on David Evans’ articles on Notch Delay Theory and his open discourse with anyone critical or questioning, if they weren’t so self absorbed with protecting their egos that is.

      81

  • #
    Kinky Keith

    The John Cook website, SkS, was rigidly anti science when I last looked a few years ago.

    I’ve also been given the impression that people who have tried to post genuine comment have been exorcised from the post.

    By contrast this site has always offered a platform for those putting a reasoned point of view when contrary to accepted science.

    In recent weeks there has been another spate of endless blog clogging. Something to think about.

    http://joannenova.com.au/2019/01/irish-greens-try-to-inspire-mass-yellow-vest-protests/#comment-2099188

    Free speech is one thing, abuse of that gift is another.

    KK

    142

  • #
    PeterS

    When someone is walking through a snow storm and enters a warm house with a hot fire and more CO2 due to people breathing, one does not make the stupid conclusion the warming inside the house is due to the CO2. That’s similar to what’s happening to our climate. Global warming over the long period has been occurring since the peak of the major ice age. The global warming alarmists just don’t get it and will never get it because they are closed minded bigots who focus on tiny oscillations of temperature that we always have seen since the time man recorded them. They not only ignore the extreme cold we often see, such as the case now in the US, they also exaggerate only the recent hot periods to make them sound we never had such hot spells before when in fact we have had them as recorded in history. The warmists are nothing but deluded fools.

    181

  • #
    RobK

    Well done Jo. It needed to be said.

    150

  • #
    Bill In Oz

    I get the argument, But who the heck is this nonentity John Cook ?

    Never heard of him.

    Do I need to ?

    91

  • #
    Bill In Oz

    And if so why ?

    40

  • #
    el gordo

    A cold snap killed the Menindee fish, according to the scientists. Its hard to know whether the draining of the lakes may have been a contributing factor.

    50

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Water is able to absorb more needed oxygen as the temperature falls in the water..

      On that logic, cooler temperatures should have helped, not killed the fish in the Menindie lakes and the Darling river.

      But now we are being told that cooler temperatures killed the fish.

      Ummmm ?

      91

      • #
        el gordo

        Is the blue green algae natural or human induced? The cold snap killed it and the fish suffocated.

        30

        • #
          Bill In Oz

          Drought induced EG
          lack of water flow due to lack of rain, leads to the water warming. Water warming leads to an explosion of blue green algae.
          Blue Green algae growth uses up the oxygen in the water
          And fish then die.

          Is there significant water in upstream dams in the Darling river system to flush the system ?

          I do not know. But even if they are, they are so far up stream, that any water released would arrive in 3,4,5 weeks not tomorrow.

          And then there is the issue of ‘what else’ or ‘who else’ misses out on water because of that release.

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            OriginalSteve

            I looked at the whole mess and figured there was more at play than the media were talking about….if it was an algal bloom that makes sense, especially if water levels are low and nutrient levels high.

            I have to say though, I get sick of the hysterical knee jerk reposnse to every minor natural problem, that then seems to morph into a “world ending catastrophe”……

            Its like they hype everything, to keep people in an aemotove response state, so the brain is never actually engaged.

            Maybe thats the MSMs role….

            I remember when Australia refused to go into Iraq. Then the bali bomb conveniently targetted Australians killing or maiming and kicking a hole ina noralluy safe space in the Oz psyche….people ran around squealling and freaking out, and signed up to the Iraq debacle in awave of hysteria, before they could think rationally….job done.

            Trauma based mind control I think its officially called….take your pick.

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    • #
      Sceptical Sam

      A cold snap killed the Menindee fish, according to the scientists.

      But indirectly. Aerobic Decomposition was the culprit.

      What happened is that the cold snap killed the blue-green algae which then started to decompose and use up the limited supply of O2. The lack of O2 killed the fish.

      https://www.sciencedaily.com/terms/algal_bloom.htm

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  • #
    TdeF

    John Cook’s stuff is such non scientific stuff, it defines cherry picking. Why send out 11,000 survey requests only to decide that 99.9% of the respondents were not qualified to answer?

    Anyway, I had to find what his qualifications were. So “John earned his PhD in Cognitive Science at the University of Western Australia in 2016″, link included.

    “Cognitive science is the interdisciplinary, scientific study of the mind and its processes. It examines the nature, the tasks, and the functions of cognition (in a broad sense). Cognitive scientists study intelligence and behavior, with a focus on how nervous systems represent, process, and transform information. Mental faculties of concern to cognitive scientists include language, perception, memory, attention, reasoning, and emotion; to understand these faculties, cognitive scientists borrow from fields such as linguistics, psychology, artificial intelligence, philosophy, neuroscience, and anthropology.

    The typical analysis of cognitive science spans many levels of organization, from learning and decision to logic and planning; from neural circuitry to modular brain organization. The fundamental concept of cognitive science is that “thinking can best be understood in terms of representational structures in the mind and computational procedures that operate on those structures.”

    Simply put: Cognitive Science is the interdisciplinary study of cognition in humans, animals, and machines. It encompasses the traditional disciplines of psychology, computer science, neuroscience, anthropology, linguistics and philosophy. The goal of cognitive science is to understand the principles of intelligence with the hope that this will lead to better comprehension of the mind and of learning and to develop intelligent devices. The cognitive sciences began as an intellectual movement in the 1950s often referred to as the cognitive revolution.”

    I think it is time that Universities stop handing out PhDs in just about anything. Never have I read the phrase ‘simply put’ so abused. If this is an intellectual movement, it needs flushing.

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      sophocles

      Did you find the title of Cooky-boy’s thesis? It should be available over the Internet …

      51

      • #
        TdeF

        Not yet. So a PhD which involves the “traditional disciplines of psychology, computer science, neuroscience, anthropology, linguistics and philosophy. Note the 19th century discipline of computer science. Also note the complete absence of mathematics, chemistry, physics, engineering, medicine. Unless neuroscience is somehow medicine.
        I now have more respect for a PhD in ice cream manufacture.

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        • #
          TdeF

          Ah, I have it. This is a course within the University of Western Australia’s School of ‘Psychological Science’. Apparently psychology is a ‘traditional discipline’ even though the first school in psychology only started in 1879. Freud is apparently responsible for a parallel field, psychoanalysis. Although as the Wikipedia article notes “There is also evidence of psychological thought in ancient Egypt.” Really.

          So John Cook is not equipped as a scientist to read any of the scientific papers he analysed. He was just looking for language, words and phrases which matched his expectations.

          Rational Science? No.

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            sophocles

            Well done TdeF. Can you post the link please? (see below and you’ll understand why :-P )

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            • #
              sophocles

              TdeF said above:

              Note the 19th century discipline of computer science.

              Of course. It’s just Mathematix. Charles Babbage and Lady (Ada) Lovelace are two heroes of mine. The London Science Museum built a full-sized version from the plans for his Difference Engine. When I go to the UK, that’s Sight # 1 for me. (Sight # 2 is the Mosquito Museum and Sight # 3 is the Tank Museum at Bovington. :-) )

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              • #
                Graeme#4

                All three are worthwhile. May I also recommend Duxford if you want to see Spitfires and Mustangs flying. Have been to the London Science Museum four times and have seen the beautiful part of the difference engine – impressive. Allow plenty of time if you want to see everything there.

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              • #
                sophocles

                Babbage’s son made some parts of it ages ago. There’s supposed to be one at our Auckland Museum of Transport and Technology but I’ve not gone looking for it. I heard it was nearly swept out because nobody at first knew what it was but it was saved by someone who remembered. (Give that individual a knight-hood!)

                To Graeme#4 @ 19.1.1.1.1:
                Thanks for the reminder about Duxford, Graeme#4. It’s on my list but further down. My first 3 are must see and then there’s the nice to see. I’ve had Mustangs fly overhead (delightfully and deliciously low! :-) )
                whenever there’s been an airshow at Whenuapai. The whine from the supercharger gears on those Merlins is unmistakable and is heard well before the exhaust. Wonderful sounds. I fell in love with big V-12 engines long long ago …:-) They’ve never gone away: diesel versions power modern main battle tanks.

                My first three, at the top of my list, though, are fixed.

                00

          • #
            Yonniestone

            So he applies a Rorschach test to those that study empirical evidence, no wonder there’s so many blots on his record.

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            • #
              OriginalSteve

              In the movie “The Watchmen”, the character Rorschach had a facemask which had this constantly changing blot shape on it….

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      • #
        sophocles

        … hiding https://research-repository.uwa.edu.au/en/publications/ …in here somewhere …

        Darn. I’ve got the concentration of a gnat: I keep going off search with every title with LIGO in it! It’s so much more interesting!

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        • #
          TdeF

          Getting papers like this from Cook, J and Lewandowsky,S

          “We present a study into belief updating concerning the reality of climate change in response to information about the scientific consensus on anthropogenic global warming (AGW).”

          So he is writing papers about the consensus as real and disbelief in the consensus as “irrational”.

          It just goes to show that peer review is only as good as your peers. In the wonderful wacky world of cognitive psychological science, if you disagree with Cook or Lewandowsky, the fault is yours. They have PhDs, awarded by their peers who agree with them.

          So all you need for a PhD is a pile of people who agree with you. Who needs Rational Science?

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            TdeF

            Plus..

            “Raising climate literacy through addressing misinformation: Case studies in agnotology-based learning
            John Cook, D. Bedford, S. Mandia

            Agnotology is the study of how and why ignorance or misconceptions exist. While misconceptions are a challenge for educators, they also present an opportunity to improve climate literacy through agnotology-based learning. This involves the use of refutational lessons that challenge misconceptions while teaching scientific conceptions. ”

            So Cook, the super scientist is trying to reeducate people who misunderstand what is true, according to his view. Perhaps reeducation camps?

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              TdeF

              A real eyeopener in science

              “Motivated Rejection of Science
              Stephan Lewandowsky, K. Oberauer
              School of Psychological Science

              “Abstract
              © 2016, © The Author(s) 2016. Some scientifically well-established results—such as the fact that emission of greenhouse gases produces global warming—are rejected by sizable proportions of the population in the United States and other countries. Rejection of scientific findings is mostly driven by motivated cognition: People tend to reject findings that threaten their core beliefs or worldview. At present, rejection of scientific findings by the U.S. public is more prevalent on the political right than the left. Yet the cognitive mechanisms driving rejection of science, such as the superficial processing of evidence toward the desired interpretation, are found regardless of political orientation. General education and scientific literacy do not mitigate rejection of science but, rather, increase the polarization of opinions along partisan lines. In contrast, specific knowledge about the mechanisms underlying a scientific result—such as human-made climate change—can increase the acceptance of that result.”

              It’s a shame they cannot see their work reflects their own denial of science.

              All published in “Current Directions in Psychological Science”.

              So people with no formal science expertise but PhDs in a Science department are deciding who is right and wrong in Rational Science because they are ‘Scientists’ too. I always wondered what psychologists and botanists and zoologists were doing in the Science department. Then even the Pope decries “Climate Change” and the Catholic Church has always championed science. Just another religion and the church has absorbed many religions, which is why Christmas was moved from 7th January to the midwinter festival on December 25th. More parties.

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                OriginalSteve

                I seem to recall researching somewhere that both psyschology and psychiatry had occult roots, but will need to dig it out.

                Kinsey, the alleged father of the study of sexuality has a question mark over him.
                Thats being polite…..

                Its funny, the more you dig, the more you find messed up stuff really is…..

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              • #
                OriginalSteve

                I think also its worth noting that Freud was an athiest, and Jung was an occultist.

                Not a great start…..

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            • #
              sophocles

              Did he take the “multiple papers” route to his Ph.D rather than a supervised single thesis?
              I sort of suspect Lewindowsky could have been his supervisor …

              Careful TdeF: Feral “Psychologists” are very dangerous! There are none so blind as those who will not see. Blinded by their own self-proclaimed cleverness…

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            • #
              sophocles

              Yeah, I downloaded those as I discovered them and I’ve realised I’ve got to literally translate each one so I don’t misread it!

              Sheesh, Leprechaun speech would be easier to learn because that would mean something!
              They’ve taken the UN concept of Transparent Impenetrability to heart.

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    • #
      Graeme No.3

      I am told that he moved from Qld. Uni when he failed physics. Lewandowsky was more his “cup of tea”. He followed him to Bristol Uni too – and it used to be one of the better ones in the UK. Now he’s in the USA, unfortunately not in the frozen north.

      As for Skepticalscience it was cleverly done if you didn’t know much about what they were preaching about. Back when he was trying to DENY the Medieval Warming Period he (or someone else) cobbled up an article relying on stories about grapes not growing as far north as then (about 2008). I had been looking into the subject and the flat out lies and the omissions of contrary information turned me into a sceptic and I have barely bothered with the site since.
      Still, the general stuff probably sounds genuine enough to convince to those gullibles who don’t do further checking. One day our current troll (P. Fitz) will do some checking too and we will have another convert.

      P.S. The one fact I haven’t been able to confirm is the claim by Geoffry Chaucer that there was a vineyard just outside Edinburgh. His father was a well known wine merchant so that might have been his source. Anyone know anything?
      Incidentally the Bishop of Durham was able to sell wine from his vineyard(s) at 3 times the price of imported French wine. And much to their disgust didn’t have to pay tax either.

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    • #
      ivan

      get him in a room with Jordan Peterson

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  • #
    GreatAuntJanet

    Scott Adams agrees with you today. He’s been discussing (and trying to understand) the opposing points of view in the ‘climate change debate’ on his podcasts. He’s still confused but is definitely interesting!
    https://twitter.com/ScottAdamsSays/status/1090339264917757952

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  • #
    pat

    Qld punches above their weight when it comes to anything remotely connected (in their minds) to CAGW:

    30 Jan: The Conversation: Death by 775 cuts: how conservation law is failing the black-throated finch
    by April Reside, Researcher, Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, The University of Queensland and
    James Watson, Professor, The University of Queensland
    Disclosure:
    April Reside is a scientific advisor for the Black-throated Finch Recovery Team and is on Birdlife Australia’s Research and Conservation Committee. In the past, April has received funding from the Regional NRM planning for climate change program, the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, and the NESP Threatened Species Recovery Hub.

    James Watson receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the Science for Nature and People Partnership, and Australia’s National Environmental Science Program. He is the Director of Science and Research with the Wildlife Conservation Society…

    Critical habitat
    The highest-profile development proposal to impinge on black-throated finch habitat loss is Adani’s Carmichael coalmine and rail project…
    But there are four other mines in the Galilee Basin that have approved the clearing of more than 29,000 ha in total of black-throated finch habitat.
    But it’s not just the mines. In 2018 the federal government approved clearing of black-throated finch habitat for a housing estate and a sugar cane farm, both near Townsville. Several solar farms have also been proposed that would clear black-throated finch habitat around Townsville.
    To further complicate matters, the black-throated finch’s habitat is also threatened with degradation by cattle grazing…
    http://theconversation.com/death-by-775-cuts-how-conservation-law-is-failing-the-black-throated-finch-110704

    Adani threatens largest known flock of endangered finches
    Brisbane Times (Fairfax) – 3 hours ago
    Adani’s proposed Carmichael Coal Mine in central Queensland could destroy ***the last major habitat of the endangered black-throated finch
    An independent review has been ordered by the Queensland government into Adani’s management plan for the finches’ habitat, after the federal government waved through the environmental approval for the site…
    RESIDE: “That doesn’t mean we don’t have things like mines, or housing developments or solar farms, we just don’t put them where the black-throated finch habitat is.”…

    The Guardian-5 hours ago
    Adani mine: environmental laws designed to protect black-throated finch led to bird’s decline
    Of 775 projects overlapping bird’s habitat that government assessed over two decades, only one was refused, study reveals
    Adani’s Carmichael coalmine still requires Queensland government approval for a conservation management plan to protect the finch – one of the significant roadblocks preventing the company from starting construction work…

    30

    • #
      pat

      2 days ago it was reported Adani was getting on with the job:

      28 Jan: Bellingen Courier: Adani starts Carmichael mine road works amid black-throated finch fight
      (from Queensland Country Life)
      The Queensland Environmental Defenders Office recently released analysis showing 2000 hectares initially reserved for conservation of the black-throated finch at Carmichael has been shaved away because it overlaps a separate mining lease set aside for China Stone.

      “Under its environmental approval, Adani needs to be able to legally secure the land it will use for environmental offsets,” the EDO has said.
      “If the land is under mining tenure belonging to another company, it may face legal difficulties securing its land for conservation purposes.”

      More than 33,000 hectares remain set aside for black-throated finch management at Carmichael, with Adani warning this conservation area would not exist if the mine did not go ahead.
      Adani said this area would be one of the largest privately-managed conservation estates in Queensland…

      Tensions are high between Adani and the state government, with Adani recently using Twitter to accuse the government of “standing in the way” of progress at the Carmichael mine.

      As debate rages over the black-throated finch and Adani’s groundwater management plan, the mining giant has attempted to jump start Carmichael by ploughing ahead with road works at the site…
      Adani is currently installing grid by-passes along the road to the site, which will facilitate the transport of larger machinery once mining gets underway.

      (ANONYMOUS) A state environment department spokesman has said Adani still needed to obtain required approvals before it could start mining.
      “Statements by Adani that they now will be self-funded and can proceed are separate issues from the required approvals which Adani must attain, as is the case for every like mining proposal,” the spokesman said.
      The spokesman said Adani’s groundwater management plan would not be approved until it was updated.
      “Preliminary advice from CSIRO requires Adani to update the plan.
      https://www.bellingencourier.com.au/story/5874619/adani-starts-road-works-as-finch-debate-rages/?cs=9397

      behind paywall – ELECTIONS COMING!

      Dig it and they will come: More than 14000 hopefuls apply for Adani jobs
      Courier Mail – 9 hours ago
      ALMOST 14,500 people have lodged interest in working at Adani’s Carmichael coal mine which remains in limbo after the Palaszczuk Government ordered an 11th hour review…

      Adani job hopes hinge on bird farce
      MORE than 14,500 people have registered their interest in working at Adani’s Carmichael coal mine.In Townsville alone, 1500 hopeful residents have put their hand up for a job at the Galilee Basin site and more than a third of those on the list are unemployed…

      Mining boss appeals for fair go from State Government
      Queensland Times – 2 hours ago

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      • #
        pat

        theirABC has been pushing this story for some time.
        April Reside listed as James Cook University in 2017:

        7 Mar 2017: ABC: Black-throated finch could be in danger from Galilee Basin mining projects
        QLD Country Hour, By Lara Webster and Fidelis Rego
        Research conducted by scientists at the CSIRO and James Cook University, has suggested the proposed Carmichael Mine could wipe out the very best of the bird’s habitat.
        James Cook Townsville researcher April Reside took part in the 30-year study, which explored the threats to the bird from urban, agricultural and mining developments…
        https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2016-03-07/black-throated-finch-in-danger-from-galilee-basin-mines/7226354

        14 Jul 2017: ABC: Adani mine ‘spinning the roulette wheel’ on survival of black-throated finch, researchers say
        By Louisa Rebgetz
        Mining giant Adani’s strategy to ensure the survival of an endangered bird in the Galilee Basin is “grossly inadequate”, researchers say, and they have called on the Federal Environment Minister to intervene…
        The Black-throated Finch Recovery Team, a group made up of experts working to ensure the bird’s survival, has obtained Adani’s documents under freedom of information laws and analysed the data in a report sent to Federal Environment Minister Josh Frydenberg today.
        April Reside from the recovery team described the plan as “grossly inadequate”…

        April Reside, James Cook Uni in 2016:

        4 Mar 2016: The Conversation: Queensland coal mines will push threatened finch closer to extinction
        by Eric Vanderduys, Research Projects Officer, CSIRO and
        April Reside, Postdoctoral Research Fellow in Spatial Ecology, James Cook University
        Disclosure:
        Eric Vanderduys is a member of the Black-throated Finch Recovery Team and received funding from CSIRO Land and Water.
        April received funding from the NESP Threatened Species Recovery Hub and the Australian Government through the Regional NRM planning for climate change program. She is a member of the Black-throated Finch Recovery Team, the Research and Conservation Committee of Birdlife Australia and the Australian Bat Society.

        Our research, published in PLoS ONE (LINK), shows that more than half of the remaining finch habitat is potentially subject to mining development…
        https://theconversation.com/queensland-coal-mines-will-push-threatened-finch-closer-to-extinction-55646

        above made the rounds of the MSM in 2016.

        behind paywall:

        REVEALED: The independent panel behind Adani’s finch review
        Rockhampton Morning Bulletin – 14h ago
        A FAR North Queenslander and an Order of Australia medallist are among six other world-leading scientists reviewing Adani’s Black-Throated Finch…

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  • #
    Filbert Cobb

    There’s the possibility that Trump performed a drive-by piss-take

    40

  • #
    Ruairi

    What warmists don’t know, they can feel,
    And believe with unwavering zeal,
    As the climate does cool,
    They continue to school,
    The skeptics,that the warming is real.

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  • #
    theRealUniverse

    People like Cook are just bought in by the (AGW) ECO FR@UD. It gives them a ‘feel good’ thing that they are always right. In reality they are just plain suckers.

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  • #
    theRealUniverse

    To add to confusion “When climate models include solar magnetic solar wind and changing UV and Infra red they might start working. ”
    Predicting the solar output ESPECIALLY mass ejections is, and always will be , impossible. Due to nuclear forces inside the star.

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    • #
    • #
      Serp

      Above us there is the solar wind, below us there is the magma flow.

      The energy output of these two phenomena has to be many orders of magnitude greater than the most exaggerated numbers which are attributed to human induced atmospheric carbon dioxide.

      Now try and figure how the RET could define eligibility to grant us relief from these cosmic and tectonic agents; them being renewable makes it a bit tricky but surely there’d be an analyst in one of the Fat Four international accounting firms who’d think up a wheeze for the parliamentary drafting team.

      Kill the RET!

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      • #
        sophocles

        Maybe the solar magnetic field interacts with Earth’s magnetic field to stabilise it. I’m wondering if our presently peripatetic magnetic poles are stabilised by the sun. The Sun is, of course, so much larger than this little mud ball.

        Is it just sheer coincidence that they arrange to swap at the same time as the solar dynamos cancel each other out?

        This is way O/T:
        I found some interesting speculation on the Internet in light of the new ideas of solar micro-novae banging the poor old planet around, on new equators. The proposed idea (and I have neither the knowledge nor the means nor the desire to investigate it) was that our present equator wasn’t always the original or even only equator.

        Gobekli Tepe has been called a temple. Archeologists have this fixation with that word. Maybe GT is “permanent” documentation and a warning for the future. It was buried because it didn’t look as though it was going to happen again? Maybe we need to look closer at GT … paying for that might be more productive than Carbon Taxes …

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    • #
      sophocles

      I wouldn’t agree with “always. Certainly not with our present knowledge and understanding.

      Lumpy solar wind (SW which has accelerated and caught up with slower SW ahead of it to `bunching it up’ is the TC trigger. (Typically 500km/sec or more). The coupling is downward gravity waves from the upper atmosphere (ionosphere) to the troposphere.

      A CME requires a sunspot flare and needs to hit Planet Earth either full in the face or a glancing blow to induce sufficient geomagnetic storminess for any effect. Any cyclonic storm present will be wound up tighter to a higher/stronger intensity. If there isn’t one, present, there probably will be afterwards. The spots with the mostest (the instabilities which contribute to the x-ray flares) are described as ones with Beta-Gamma-Delta instabilities, so there is a starting point.

      Five years ago, we didn’t know the Solar Wind was responsible for firing up TCs but a connection was statistically recognised. Now, the connection is known and definite. We do need more research.

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      • #
        theRealUniverse

        The Sun – Earth electromagnetic connection/circuit is responsible for allot more than previously realized by science. More papers are published now recognizing that there is good correlations.

        20

        • #
          sophocles

          Yes, that’s a very (rightfully so) active field of research.
          The new satellites are proving themselves to be money well spent …

          00

  • #
    pat

    “take out” – kill or destroy someone/something!

    30 Jan: Guardian: It’s time to ‘take out’ environment ministers who fail on climate, says Oliver Yates
    The longtime Liberal party member wants to take on Josh Frydenberg to start a people power campaign
    (LINK) ‘The Liberal party has lost the plot – that’s why I’m running as an independent’: Oliver Yates
    by Katharine Murphy
    Oliver Yates, the son of a Liberal politician and longtime party member, wants to take on Josh Frydenberg in a seat once held by Robert Menzies to start a people power campaign not only in Australia, but around the world.

    The former Macquarie banker, and head of the Clean Energy Finance Corporation, who will confirm his intention to run in Kooyong as an independent publicly on Wednesday, says the challenges of climate change are now so serious, so pressing, that citizens need to “take out” their environment ministers when they occupy the portfolio but fail to protect the environment and the climate…

    “I want this to be a worldwide campaign where citizens take out their environment ministers if they do not care for the environment, because clearly they are not doing it anywhere round the world, and citizens are not making any progress in this.
    “We all tried as business people. We’ve been good, and managed our positions, but this is serious. It’s a really serious issue that needs to be addressed.”…

    He says if he were to win Kooyong at the coming federal election, he would, for example, be open to serving in a newly elected government, or providing policy advice relevant to his professional expertise in finance and climate change policy…
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/30/its-time-to-take-out-environment-ministers-who-fail-on-climate-says-oliver-yates?CMP=share_btn_tw

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    • #
      pat

      Oliver Yates’s served on board of company that sold coal tenements to mining giant Adani
      The Australian-3 hours ago
      The renewable-energy advocate challenging Josh Frydenberg in the Liberal … that previously sold coal tenements to Indian mining giant Adani. … 2011 and I joined that company particularly in relation to look at hydrogen and …
      Mr Yates re-stated this morning on ABC radio that he was a “simple board member” of the company who attended two board meetings…
      Ms Steggall has distanced herself from GetUp but identified climate change as a … issue and has consulted with Tim Flannery on policy responses…

      27 Jan: Guardian: Zali Steggall to challenge Tony Abbott for Warringah seat
      by Anne Davies and Paul Karp; Additional reporting from Australian Associated Press
      Steggall has adopted the rallying cry of independent Kerryn Phelps, who won the blue-ribbon Liberal seat of Wentworth in a byelection last year and has promised to operate from the “sensible centre”…
      Steggall said in a statement her policy priorities include effective climate strategy, the economy, healthcare and improving politics.
      “The most common concern is the lack of action on climate change,” she said…

      Her campaign has enlisted well-known scientist and recently appointed climate change expert at the Australian Museum, Tim Flannery, as an adviser on climate policies…

      However, Steggall is likely to have the backing of several grassroots groups that have been running a campaign against the former prime minister, including selling anti-Abbott T-shirts and posters.
      The groups have been liaising with GetUp, which has vowed to work to remove Abbott and other climate change deniers from their seats at the forthcoming election, likely to be held in May…
      https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/26/zali-steggall-to-challenge-tony-abbott-warringah-nsw-seat

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    • #
      Serp

      The Beloved Windbag is developing a big team of putative independents following upon his success with Phelps.

      Until now I’d discounted assessments which characterized him as being deeply spiteful but I suspected we hadn’t seen the last of him; he now seems to be scheming to fill the House with stooges who will appoint him a non sitting Prime Minister or some such.

      The stopturnbull.com website could do with updating in light of these recent developments but it remains hijacked though some cached pages are available on archive.org.

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  • #
    Ve2

    Trump was being sarcastic. Skeptics are making jokes.

    But Greenies have no sense of humour.

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  • #
    Ve2

    Trump was being sarcastic. Skeptics are making jokes.

    But Greenies have no sense of humour.

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  • #
    Dennis

    This from Morning Mail comments …

    “In view of the above, and jokes aside. I wonder why somebody failed to ask NZ Prime Minister about this?
    Make-up of NZ’s future energy supply called into question as ‘unprecedented’ gas and hydro shortages see Genesis Energy’s coal use hit a 5-year high, up 155% in one year
    The Petroleum Exploration and Production Association of New Zealand (PEPANZ) has used news of the extent of Genesis’ reliance on coal to again make its case that the Government has done the opposite of what it should’ve, in the face of depleting gas reserves, by banning new offshore oil and gas exploration and limiting onshore exploration to Taranaki until at least 2020.
    “We now have around seven years of natural gas supply left and no plan on what to replace it with, other than burning more coal and importing LNG from overseas.
    NZ has been importing coal from Indonesia. For the first time thanks to Labour, NZ is no longer self-sufficient in energy. PEPANZ CEO Cameron Madgwick says: “When the lakes are low and there’s no rain and natural gas is unavailable, it’s coal that keeps the lights on.
    Meanwhile Greenpeace climate and energy campaigner, Amanda Larsson has taken the opportunity to make the case that gas isn’t a reliable source of energy, so the Government should be investing in the development of the solar energy sector, presumably because it isn’t a reliable sauce of energy either!
    And thinking of logic, I wonder if Amanda Larsson and Prime Minister Jacinda studied Aristotle at the same university?”

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    • #
      Dennis

      This too …

      “THE GIFT”
      NZ’s child-like Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern had just finished another big day ear bashing all and sundry at the Davos Conference about the shortcomings of capitalism and how her government was setting an example for the world to follow. Sweeping a green swathe of socialist green regulation through the shaky Iles.
      A handsome man, an ex fighter pilot, was seated in a sports bar around 9:58 pm. Just as Jacinda and a few Davos delegates came in and were placing their orders, she took the bar stool next to his gazing up at the TV as the 10:00 news came on. The news crew was covering a story of a man on a ledge of a large building preparing to jump.
      Jacinta looked at Jack and said, “Do you think he’ll jump?” Jack says, “You know what, I bet he will.” Jacinda replied, “Well, I bet he won’t,” Jack placed $30 on the bar and said, “You’re on!”
      Just as she placed her money on the bar, the guy did a swan dive off of the building, falling to his death. She was very upset and handed her $30 to Jack, saying, “Fair’s fair… Here’s your money.”
      Jack replied, “I can’t take your money, I saw this earlier on the 5 o’clock news and knew he would jump.”
      Jasinda replies, “I did too; but I didn’t think he’d do it again.” Jack took the money and wondered what she did for a job.”

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    • #
      sophocles

      We (NZ) have huge amount of coal in the ground but Solid Energy, the ex (Coal) Mining Department turned into a Government owned company
      was “allowed” to go to the wall a couple of years ago. Our coal is excellent coking coal

      Our present stupid government liquidated it last year.

      I used to vote Labour … but don’t anymore because of decisions like that which are not in the interests of NZ.

      Solar would be a disaster in NZ. The country is not known as Aotearoa —the Land of the Long White Cloud for very good reason. That name is the original Maori name. Wind would be another disaster: there is 13kph on the harbour. There’s been almost none in my area since before Christmas. The cicadas are 6 weeks late because of low temperatures—it’s been a cool summer. Why? Cloud. Cloud almost every day. Sometimes it blows away after midday. More often, it doesn’t.

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  • #
    pat

    29 Jan: ClimateDepot: Marc Morano: Record Cold/Snow caused by ‘global warming’?! Climate activists predict both outcomes — more snow, less snow — so they are never wrong – Book excerpt
    http://www.climatedepot.com/2019/01/29/record-cold-snow-caused-by-global-warming-climate-activists-predict-both-outcomes-more-snow-less-snow-so-they-are-never-wrong-book-excerpt/

    60

  • #
    pat

    29 Jan: WUWT: Mathematical modeling illusions
    The global climate scare – and policies resulting from it – are based on models that do not work
    by Dr. Jay Lehr and Tom Harris
    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/01/29/mathematical-modeling-illusions/

    60

    • #
      Kinky Keith

      Good that people are prepared to inform the public, a situation that has always been evident to those familiar with real modeling.

      KK

      41

  • #
    pat

    Updates: The snow has ended, but falling temperatures present concern for icy roads…
    Washington Post-1 hour ago

    headline changed to:

    29 Jan: WaPo: UPDATED forecast: Icy spots likely overnight. Very windy with snow showers possible on Wednesday.
    Tuesday’s snow has ended after a trace to three inches across the region
    by Jason Samenow and Matt Rogers
    •Temperatures will drop through the 20s overnight. Slushy and wet areas will freeze and turn icy overnight with untreated roads hazardous…
    Some good news is that temperatures have been somewhat slow to fall so far from the Beltway and to the south and east where temperatures remain near or just a hair above freezing. But, in the coming hours, the entire region should fall below freezing and into the 20s by midnight…
    Here is a look at temperatures around the region at 6:30 p.m. (see below). Areas to the left of the yellow line are already at or below freezing and will continue to fall…
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/01/29/dc-area-forecast-snow-wintry-mix-today-cold-temperatures-bottom-out-by-thursday/

    every picture tells a story:

    30 Jan: Daily Mail: Associated Press: ‘What the hell is going on with Global Waming? Please come back fast, we need you!’: Trump misspells tweets about the ‘coldest ever recorded’ temperatures in the Midwest as he takes swipe at climate change while life threatening conditions sweep the region
    •Trump tweeted Monday questioning climate change due to the freezing cold temperatures in the Midwest
    •However, scientists say the freezing cold is caused by unusually warm weather in different parts of the world
    •Heavy snow and life-threatening subzero temperatures set to strike the U.S. Midwest and Northeast this week
    •Wind chills could dip to -55 degrees in northern Illinois and -30 degrees in Minnesota on Wednesday
    •The National Weather Service says plunging temperatures will be ‘life threatening’
    Meanwhile, scientists dispel that theory as they warn that a polar vortex is set to become more common as the added warm air invades the polar region, causing it to split the vortex and send the Arctic blast to the US…

    ***And though parts of the US are experiencing record low, places like Australia and New Zealand are struggling with a record-breaking heatwave…

    Heavy snow and powerful wind created blizzard-like conditions Monday across parts of the Midwest, prompting officials to cancel about 1,000 flights at Chicago’s airports and close hundreds of schools.
    But forecasters warned the most dangerous weather is yet to come: frigidly low temperatures that the region hasn’t seen in a quarter century.
    Snowplow drivers had trouble keeping up with the snow in Minnesota and Wisconsin, where some areas got as much as 15 inches…

    Wednesday is expected to be the worst. Wind chills in northern Illinois could fall to negative 55 degrees, which the National Weather Service called ‘possibly life threatening.’ Minnesota temperatures could hit minus 30 degrees with a wind chill of negative 60 .
    ‘You’re talking about frostbite and hypothermia issues very quickly, like in a matter of minutes, maybe seconds,’ Hurley said…

    Cold weather advisories are in effect across a broad swath of the central U.S., from North Dakota to Missouri and spanning into Ohio. Temperatures will be as many as 20 degrees below average in parts of the Upper Great Lakes region and Upper Mississippi Valley, according to the National Weather Service…
    Homeless shelters were preparing for the onslaught of cold. The Milwaukee Rescue Mission’s call volume was ‘unusually high,’ but there should still be enough beds for those who need them, said the mission’s president, Pat Vanderburgh…

    Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel urged residents to check on their neighbors and take safety precautions. He said city agencies are making sure homeless people are in shelters or offered space in warming buses…
    Hundreds of schools were closed across Michigan as road conditions deteriorated, including Eastern Michigan University…
    The Minnesota State Patrol was responding to scores of spinouts and crashes early Monday in the Twin Cities metro area because of snow-covered and icy roads…

    More than 800 flights were cancelled at Chicago O’Hare International Airport Monday morning and Midway International Airport canceled more than 220. The high temperature forecast at O’Hare on Wednesday is negative 14 degrees, which would break a record set on Jan. 18, 1994…

    Even the fabled ‘frozen tundra’ of Lambeau Field, home to the NFL’s Green Bay Packers, wasn’t able to withstand the heavy snow and wind that closed hundreds of businesses, schools and government offices in Wisconsin. The stadium said tours, the Packers Hall of Fame and other related businesses were closed Monday.

    Courthouses and most offices were closed in Milwaukee, Waukesha, Columbia and Washington counties, while more than three dozen flights were canceled early Monday at the Milwaukee area’s largest airport, Mitchell International Airport…
    Rare snowfall was also forecast for some southern states . Forecasters warned of up to 3 inches of snow in central Mississippi and Alabama by Tuesday morning and said temperatures will plummet as arctic cold blasts southward. Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey issued a state of emergency ahead of the storm…
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6641939/Heavy-snow-hitting-parts-Midwest-dangerous-cold-coming.html

    20

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Umm ? With all that snow & ice the albedo of all the North American continent and Northern Europe and Asia, will have changed with lots more sunlight being reflected….

      Which of course means more cooling and less warming !

      HAS A NEW AGE OF ICE STARTED IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE ?

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  • #
    AndyG55

    Not even the resident AGW trollette is here to defend little Johnie Kook. !

    72

  • #
    pat

    Gizmodo, owned by Univision (Haim Saban, major Democrat donor). Maddie always follows the CAGW mantra of the day:

    29 Jan: Gizmodo: Bummer: Global Warming Won’t Make Giant Winter Snow Storms Go Away
    by Maddie Stone
    Climate change is going to have a lot of unpleasant consequences. But at least those of us on the East Coast won’t face as many nasty winter snowstorms, right? Well… a new study is throwing a bit of cold water on that silver lining…

    Research (LINK) published recently in Geophysical Research Letters looked at how these and other winter snowstorms will change in a warming world.
    While snowphobes might cheer the late 21st century forecast of less white stuff on the whole, the biggest and baddest storms — which frequently fall into the nor’easter bucket—are unlikely to go away…
    “The idea is we’ll have less total snowstorms in the future, but when you do have a snowstorm, it’s more likely it’ll be an intense snowstorm than a weak one,” study author Colin Zarzycki, an assistant professor in Penn State’s Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, told Gizmodo…

    Zarycki reached this bummer conclusion by looking at 35 different climate model simulations run by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (he conducted the research while he was a project scientist there). These models are all based on the same assumptions about our future climate (in this case, a high carbon emissions scenario known as RCP 8.5) but use slightly different starting conditions that can lead to different outcomes for the weather. He then wrote an algorithm to pluck out individual snowstorms from these models and create a probability distribution of different snowy futures.
    This approach is especially helpful for predicting how big, infrequently occurring storms might change, Zarycki said…

    ***Several experts not involved with the study said these results made sense. “The study points out the obvious, that as things warm, we are more apt to get rain rather than snow,” NCAR climate scientist Kevin Trenberth told Gizmodo in an email. “But it also points out we can still get big snows. The oceans are warming and thus can readily supply plenty of moisture. Even in a warmer world, though, we still have winter and it gets cold over land and to the North.”

    ***MIT atmospheric scientist Kerry Emanuel also thought study’s conclusions about snowfall seemed “reasonable” but added that it’s important to consider the coastal flooding impacts of winter storms, too. Indeed, nor’easters often produce worse flooding for the northeastern U.S. than hurricanes, and sea level rise will give those icy, car-entombing floodwaters some extra juice…

    Bottom line for East Coasters, though? You’re going to need to keep that snow shovel on hand at least until the end of the century.
    https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2019/01/bummer-global-warming-wont-make-giant-winter-snow-storms-go-away/

    30

  • #
    greggg

    Today Weatherzone is showing the temperature for my location at seven degrees higher than it currently is. It is not unusual for them to show higher temps. The nearest weather station is about 60km away. The next nearest weather station is about 67km away in the other direction and reads a degree cooler than here – that one is usually more accurate. Weather stations seem to get chosen based on distance rather than how they compare to actual temps.

    70

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Greggm Two questions :
      1; Where abouts roughly do you live ? In Oz or elsewhere ?
      1: Which degrees do you means centigrade or Fahrenheit ?

      40

      • #
        greggg

        1. Southeast South Australia.
        2. Celsius (centigrade).
        I was thinking that the average person probably feels hotter when they are told the temperature is higher than it is. It doesn’t hurt the warmist cause.

        00

  • #
    Antoine D'Arche

    so he’s the fool who came up with the 97% survey? He’s a third rate academic AT BEST. I’d forgotten his name, thanks Jo for reminding me.
    It occurs to me – back in the late 70s and early 80s – how attached to global cooling was the general population and what made them jump ship to global warming?

    80

    • #
      sophocles

      … what made them jump ship to global warming?

      Chris Monkton’s take on that question.
      [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Hyl9YzJsQg Agenda 21 and Environmental Marxism] 2014

      40

    • #
      Yonniestone

      He embellished the survey but it was Doran and Zimmerman in 2008 that sent out the survey, https://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/10/an-oopsie-in-the-doranzimmerman-97-consensus-claim/

      Abstract,
      In 2008 Margaret Zimmerman asked two questions of 10,257 Earth Scientists at academic and government institutions. 3146 of them responded. That survey was the original basis for the famous “97% consensus” claim.

      “In our survey, the most specialized and knowledgeable respondents (with regard to climate change) are those who listed climate science as their area of expertise and who also have published more than 50% of their recent peer-reviewed papers on the subject of climate change (79 individuals in total). Of these specialists, 96.2% (76 of 79) answered “risen” to question 1 and 97.4% (75 of 77) answered yes to question 2.”

      The two questions were:

      Q1: “When compared with pre-1800s levels, do you think that mean global temperatures have generally risen, fallen, or remained relatively constant?” 76 of 79 (96.2%) answered “risen.”

      Q2: “Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures?” 75 of 77 (97.4%) answered “yes.”

      Cook is simply not that creative.

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      • #

        Cook merely jumped on the 97% bandwagon with a me-too type paper where he got many biased volunteers to search for a biased set of magic keywords in papers and conclude that the 97% propaganda line was real (as if it means something scientific).

        As if the incidence of magic keywords was an independent marker worth investigating in any way except a tool to analyze government grants by proxy, or confirmation bias.

        152

        • #
          Yonniestone

          Jo when you get another spot on Sky can you please go over this 97% story as it really captures the unprofessionalism of the CAGW claims and research flaws.

          Besides sticking it to some of those smarmy mouthpieces would be some payback at least.

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          • #
            Graeme#4

            Prof. Ian Plimer did an excellent takedown of the 97% Consensus recently in The Oz. Not a single troll tried to disprove what he said, as usual the best they could do were Ad Hominem attacks.

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        • #
          Peter C

          As if the incidence of magic keywords was an independent marker worth investigating in any way except a tool to analyze government grants by proxy, or confirmation bias.

          Well worth looking into. Lets look at the incidence of Government grants by key words. Is Climate Change up there by any chance?

          40

      • #
        Peter C

        Thanks for that reference Yonnie.

        10

    • #
      AndyG55

      “He’s a third rate academic”

      You are WAY over-estimating his capabilities.

      81

      • #
        TdeF

        As once before, I have to quote secondary school teacher, famous quizmaster and Labor politician Barry Jones that “Australia is the one country where calling someone an academic is an insult”. A third rate academic even worse.

        00

  • #
    Robber

    Another hot summer day in NSW/Vic/SA and once again the generators are raking in the $$$, with prices above $250/MWhr, with aternoon/evening peaks to come. NSW particularly seems to be struggling, with 1,000 MW coming from Qld and 350 MW from Vic. Currently in NSW coal is providing 8.2 GW, gas 0.7 GW, hydro 0.6 GW, wind 0.4 GW, large solar 0.4 GW, rooftop solar 1.0 GW. Peak demand is forecast to be 12.9 GW. Liddell is providing 1.2 GW – how will NSW cope when it is shutdown? Tomorrow NSW is forecast to be below the minimum level 2 reserve capacity of 0.8 GW.

    60

  • #
    Damon

    Cook is religious “The second reason is my faith. I’m a Christian and find myself strongly challenged by passages in the Bible like Amos 5 and Matthew 25. I believe in a God who has a heart for the poor and expects Christians to feel the same way.” (Quote from skeptical science website). If he believes in one fairy tale, no surprise that he believes in others.

    32

    • #
      Greg Cavanagh

      Ah, so he believes that being good is enough to be worthy of heaven. He’s not in agreement that God is sovereign and that God choses who he wants to let into heaven. No, being good should be enough. What does God know anyway?

      I had to read them both to understand what challenged him. And don’t be too hard on those of us who do believe in God. There are many great men throughout history who did also, and all of early science was funded by the church. We’re not all that bad, though some are a bit questionable.

      50

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      The Bible advocates looking after the poor, the widows and fatherless children – I fail to see how promoting green socialism to impoverish nations and their populations, achieves that requirement.

      20

  • #
    PADRE

    Of course the whole AGW scam started with Cook-like psychology in that the warmest part of the Washington summer was chosen for the appearance of James Hansen before the congressional committee in 1988. Hansen and Wirth made sure that the room was at its hottest by letting in the warm night air and turning off the air conditioning. Then Hansen was able to imply that this was what could be expected thanks to AGW.
    I am fed up with hearing the likes of the Prime Minister of Australia saying, “we are tackling climate change”. When he should be asking “what do you actually mean by climate change and how is it affecting us in the long term. How does the data compare with your assertions/predictions?” Surely this is not too much to ask of our politicians when so much money is being wasted on useless, unreliable electricity generation, for example.

    112

    • #
      Kinky Keith

      Exactly.

      The issue with politics is that the politicians know that they can talk over any individual and leave a media imprint that will be accepted by 97% even if the content is incorrect.

      We don’t have a government that is prepared to act for the good of the people.

      KK

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  • #
    KR

    Single days, weeks, months – not appropriate for discussing multi-decadal trends. Now, from what I’ve seen, J. Cook is pretty good at presenting actual statistics rather than anecdotes. If he —has— gone by anecdotes (again, haven’t seen that), it’s a bad argument. Same for claiming cold days or a cold season somewhere contradicting AGW – it’s a bad argument. And if you make that kind of argument, be prepared for a poor reception (see here).

    Now, if you look at multi-decade trends, or for example the increasing ratios of hot records to cold records, wherein the 1950′s had a 1.09/1 ratio of hot vs. cold, the 1990′s 1.36/1, and 2016 (for example) a ratio of 1.93/1, then you’re talking about statistics, not anecdotes. And if you argue from statistics, you might be taken seriously.

    610

    • #
      AndyG55

      Thank goodness for the solar-force NATURAL warming out of the LIA , hey ! :-)

      And the nights warming due to UHI.

      And really, using NCAR/GISS data? ROFLMAO.

      Fabrication, adjustment, homogenisation, TOBs farce, smearing of small urban heat areas over vast rural areas… whatever it takes.

      112

    • #
      PeterFitzroy

      green thumb for you KR

      16

    • #
      robert rosicka

      Accidental green thumb KR , you love stats but your link says your also convinced by models , stats can be manipulated to mean whatever you like if the whole picture is not evident .
      Omission and grading a graph using smaller fractions or bigger works well , Cook has used obfuscation and omission along with a healthy dose of creative accounting to come up with statistics that are meaningless .

      61

    • #
    • #
      Peter Fitzroy

      Everybody uses models in their life. Math and statistics are ways in which observations can be compared, grouped and sorted with the ultimate aim of improving those models. when you tlak of manipulation you are saying that the results do not fit with your model. Rather than adjusting the model you throw away the stats. Bad science.

      110

      • #
        AndyG55

        Again, you are obviously very ignorant about models and their validity.

        Models in Maths, real science, engineering are CONSTANTLY tested against reality.

        If they fail, they FAIL.. the model is WRONG.

        Its called Validation against REALITY and DATA

        Climate models have failed over and over again,

        There range is wider than a herd of elephant butts.

        They have NEVER been validated against reality.

        … and yet they are still considered to be “good” by their non-scientist makers and their hangers-on.

        You really do need to go back to junior high and start your education in the science area again, pfutz, because we can say with very high confidence that you missed out almost completely the first time around.

        61

        • #
          Kinky Keith

          Climate Models never get off the ground because there’s No process analysis.

          The lack of any clear process linking the two components of the Klimate Models means that they are not only failures but designed to deceive.

          KK

          71

          • #
            Peter Fitzroy

            climate models are systems of differential equations based on the basic laws of physics, fluid motion, and chemistry. To “run” a model, scientists divide the planet into a 3-dimensional grid, apply the basic equations, and evaluate the results. Atmospheric models calculate winds, heat transfer, radiation, relative humidity, and surface hydrology within each grid and evaluate interactions with neighboring points. looks like process analysis and linking to me

            07

            • #
              AndyG55

              50 tweaking variable,

              Tells us pfutz.

              Which model of the many, is actually correct.

              They have all missed REALITY by the proverbial mile.

              So much so that even with manic adjustments, GISS et al STILL can’t keep up.

              So.. which model, pftuz??

              70

            • #
              AndyG55

              let me guess,

              You know absolutely nothing about solving differential equations over time. You do not have the maths background to understand the issue at all.

              Absolutely nothing about fluid dynamics, and very little about chemistry.

              I doubt you have ever done any actual computer modelling, either.

              So really, you are talking about an area where you are basically clueless apart from what you were able to cut and paste.

              30

        • #
          Peter Fitzroy

          which is what I said. Adjust the model, do not discard the data.

          24

      • #
        Kinky Keith

        Everybody uses soap in the shower, and sometimes in the bath, but in the latter it’s important to check daily to make sure that levels are not rising.

        Math and statistics are ways in which sea levels, and as discussed, also bath levels can be compared, grouped and sorted with the ultimate aim of improving cleaning experience.

        when you talk of soap manipulation you are saying the obvious, that soap can be slippery.

        Rather than adjusting the washing approach you throw away the soap.

        Bad housekeeping.

        Life moves on step by step building on the shoulders of those who have gone before.

        KK

        21

      • #
        AndyG55

        “you are saying that the results do not fit with your model. Rather than adjusting the model you throw away the stats. Bad science.”

        I apologise, pfutz,

        You have described climate modelling to tee, well done. !!

        51

        • #
          AndyG55

          Except they don’t throw away the data,

          they CHANGE it, ADJUST it, torture it, manipulate it, all to try to meet what their assumption driven model is telling them.

          That is what GISS et al are all about.

          61

        • #
          Kinky Keith

          Agree,: a true and accurate description of a totally discredited concept.

          41

      • #
        robert rosicka

        It’s simply not possible to know what the temp is going to be in 80 years from now even if you know exactly what inputs are required which you don’t .
        We can’t even predict the weather or temperature just a few days out using the same model but you honestly believe you can see well into the future using models , your guessing but even worse your using faith and ideology not science .

        41

        • #
          Peter Fitzroy

          If you are saying that the model is going to predict a temperature 80 years from now and be 100% accurate, that is true. What you can say is that it will be in a range and you can assign a probability to that range. No climate model would ever do anything else, and to expect it to do what you suggest is a straw man argument of the flimsiest sort.

          17

          • #
            el gordo

            ‘What you can say is that it will be in a range and you can assign a probability to that range.’

            If the models are relying on CO2 causing warming, then the outcome will be badly flawed.

            51

          • #
            AndyG55

            “and be 100% accurate”

            try totally INACCURATE.

            Only way any model can be within “cooee” is by pure chance.

            They are all based on erroneous suppositions about the unproven effect of increased atmospheric CO2.

            Although apparently the Russia model does not have this automatic FAILURE point built in, and is proving, so far, to be at least somewhere near rerality.

            71

            • #
              AndyG55

              And they are all “trained” to the fabricated GISS data, which has the 1940′s peak removed.

              They have an erroneous trend already built in, just by their “hindcasting” and “parameter fudging”.

              They have to ALWAYS project more warming than would happen even if the model was correct and unbiased within itself.

              But they can’t go back and use real temperatures from the 1940s, because that would destroy the whole AGW scam :-)

              They have dug a very deep hole for themselves, that they can never get out of.

              And it will be delicious to watch over the next several years :-)

              61

        • #
          Environment Skeptic

          It is so refreshing to not know what the weather will be like…living in the moment etc :)

          20

          • #
            Environment Skeptic

            …umm.. minus 60C wind chill factor would be hard for any cool climate model to wear….far easier to wear a hot climate model.
            It’s all clear now. lol

            20

            • #
              Environment Skeptic

              for example: Frogs prefer hot climate models and will jump out if there is an deviation in the climate model they are accustomed to.

              20

              • #
                robert rosicka

                So even thought Fitz knows the models are useless he still wants the world to go back to the stone ages to save us because of a hunch ,a prediction , a forecast , a crystal ball .

                10

              • #
                Environment Skeptic

                I do agree with your point robert rosicka. Pardon me if I worry about the sterotype models have acquired in today’s high tensile world. A model is not/cannot be useless… Every day…. “models”, also ‘climate models’ work under difficult, harsh/highly tensile conditions, …difficult to imagine for those not in that kind of climate.
                “Blue Steel” Zoolander (High tensile)
                https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D519hT7-ytY
                As a devout ‘environment skeptic’, there might be continued skepticism, by me, about the harsh environment climate models are expected to work/endure, especially in today’s thermal environment that should have been modeled by Lord Kelvin while he was still hot at the time.
                Spare a thought for the climate model.

                00

      • #
        rk

        Peter,
        I’ve watched this argument with you and others over many days and you don’t know what you are talking about. Everybody does NOT USE MODELS IN THEIR LIFE !!! The real world provides a stark and fatal reminder that FACTS and physics have fatal consequences if ignored. Models and statistics are useless with weather and climate and are not used by those working in aviation and the marine environment. There is no such thing as AVERAGE WEATHER, TEMPERATURE OR ANY OTHER PART OF THE WEATHER. It changes every day and will never be the same on another day. Our weather is neither warming or cooling but changing constantly between maximums and minimums. We are not seeing extreme weather of any type that has not occurred before and certainly not now – I speak from 54 years in aviation and a long airline career, working in the weather from sea level to 40,000′ over all times of day, night, month and year. What the hell do you really know about weather? Have you ever seen a line of thunderstorms 70,000′ high from the 1970′s or a continuous line of evening thunderstorms all the way from Brisbane to Cairns? You won’t have because it is not warm enough these days for that weather to develop. The Bureau of Meteorology is filled with modelers who have no first hand experience of the weather and much of their data, forecasts and description of weather is wrong and not based on reality. They do not even know the definition and requirements of what constitutes a severe thunderstorm. As someone who has had direct experience of thousands of them I know that these people have no real knowledge and experience of them and much of their data is fraudulent.

        If you think that these people have any competence and could forecast anything, you should read the disgraceful history of the 18th of June 2013 misforecast of fog at Adelaide when two B737′s were within 20 minutes of Adelaide and were forced to divert to Mildura which itself had unforecast fog and resulted in both aircraft landing with hardly any fuel and the second aircraft landing blind with 15 minutes of fuel on board. It is the pressure systems that directly control our weather. Your inability to face what many are telling you here shows you must be a type of Walter Mitty.

        20

        • #
          robert rosicka

          I’m sorry rk your observations can not be possible because faith and models prove so !

          Excellent post by the way .

          00

        • #
          Kinky Keith

          Thank you rk.

          The only real weather models are the graphs of ice temperature plotted over time for the last half million years.

          Axial tilt, orbital variations of the Earth around the Sun and time have produced regular cycles of 100,000 to 110,000 years where relatively warm interglacials of about 15,000 years create a contrast for dire freezing periods of about 70,000 years.

          That is The Only Model of the weather.

          Unfortunately for the future of this IPCCCCC scam there is No Model that can be produced that links weather with human origin CO2 or any other so called greenhouse gas.

          Water vapor and CO2 content of the atmosphere is Driven by orbital mechanics, effectively The Sun does it all.

          KK

          KK

          00

    • #

      Just that little reminder again: temperature statistics without commonsense interpretation, absolute consistency of measurement/siting/surrounds and wide observation/reportage are useless bunk.

      Temperature statistics with these critical factors are useful bunk. Why are they still bunk, despite their usefulness? Well, ask yourself what would happen to minima and maxima in a cooling, thus less humid world. Got it yet?

      If you haven’t worked out how CLOUD above all interferes with potential min/max you have not even begun to think about climate. Me, I couldn’t care less if the world is in yet another minor warming or cooling phase. Cool like 1700 or warm like 6-4 thousand BC might be a bit of a concern, but cool like the 1970s or warm like now is a walk in the park. Want to tell me there’s been some global warming since 1980? It’s so trivial I can’t be bothered wondering how you arrived at a global temperature. Can’t work out why fellow skeptics care or buy into that debate.

      But I’m not sure I can go on living in a world where people spend years in universities and never notice that days stay cooler and nights warmer because of…CLOUD. If you compare annual temperatures taken a hundred years ago with temperatures now in one place, you have to know all about the place and what went in to the making of those temps. The number is hopelessly insufficient.

      CLOUD! Do I need to say it again? (I know. Yes. Yes I do. You’ve always got to be yelling CLOUD at these people.)

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    pat

    29 Jan: Vox: Winters are warming faster than summers. These US cities could lose weeks of freezing days by 2050.
    The dire consequences of having fewer days below freezing, explained.
    By Umair Irfan and Kavya Sukumar
    Though the polar vortex is descending on the Midwest this week, white winters are overall beginning to turn mushy gray across the northern United States. And the longer we wait to get serious about limiting climate change, a White Christmas could become a thing of the past for many cities later this century.

    As part of our Weather 2050 project, we examined how average winter low temperatures are projected to shift in the 1,000 largest US cities by 2050 if we do nothing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
    In our latest analysis, we found that in 67 cities, the average winter low temperature could cross a critical threshold by 2050: the freezing point of water…

    Around the country, warmer winters could mean the closure of skating rinks, more pollen, and more ticks carrying Lyme disease, since temperatures won’t be dropping below freezing as often to kill them off. Critical water resources out west that depend on snow will suffer large declines.
    “I would argue that our winters are getting sick, and the reason why is global warming,” Amato Evan, an associate professor at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, said at the American Geophysical Union meeting in December…

    In general, scientists expect that winters will warm faster (LINK) than summers across the US….
    How we did our analysis ETC…
    (Special thanks to David Pierce, of the Climate Research Division at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, for guiding the data analysis)
    https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2018/12/20/18136006/climate-change-warmer-winters

    Wikipedia: Vox Media was founded in 2005 as SportsBlogs, Inc., the parent company of the sports blog network SB Nation, by political strategist Jerome Armstrong, freelance writer Tyler Bleszinski, and Markos Moulitsas (creator of Daily Kos)…
    In December 2014, Vox Media raised a US$46.5 million round led by the growth equity firm General Atlantic, estimating the media company’s value at around $380 million…
    Participants in Vox Media’s previous rounds include Accel Partners, Comcast Ventures, and Khosla Ventures etc…
    ***In August 2015, NBCUniversal made a $200 million equity investment in Vox Media, valuing the company at more than $1 billion…
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vox_Media

    ???

    28 Jan: Vox: Americans are worried about climate change — but don’t want to pay much to fix it
    The rhetoric around climate change is shifting, but it’s not leading to action.
    By Umair Irfan
    According to a nationally representative survey from Yale University and George Mason University, 69 percent of Americans are “somewhat worried” about climate change and 29 percent are “very worried.” These are the highest values since the surveys began in 2008, and the “very worried” category shows an 8 percent jump compared to the previous survey published in April 2018.

    “We’ve never seen that happen before,” said co-author Anthony Leiserowitz, director of the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication. “My read of it is that basically, people are more convinced that it’s happening and more convinced that it’s human-caused.”

    Similarly, a national Reuters/Ipsos poll from December found that 72 percent of Americans consider climate change to be a moderate, serious, or imminent threat…

    “You can experience, a drought, flood, or hurricane, but you can’t experience global temperatures going up,” Leiserowitz said…

    The findings echo yet another national poll from the University of Chicago and the Associated Press this month that found that 71 percent of Americans understand that the climate is changing, and a majority know that humans are driving it…

    The AP/University of Chicago poll tried to get at this by asking people how much respondents were willing to pay monthly to fight climate change. Fifty-seven percent of those surveyed said they would be willing to pay at least $1 per month, 23 percent said they’d pay at least $40 per month, and 16 percent were willing to pay at least $100 per month.
    It shows that a minority of the population is willing to pay the majority of the cost for fighting greenhouse gas emissions and coping with rising temperatures…
    https://www.vox.com/2019/1/28/18197262/climate-change-poll-public-opinion-carbon-tax

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    • #

      It’s ingenious. Once it was blizzards, storms and snow. Now it’s polar vortex, lake effect and…potential danger of spring floods.

      There’s no winning with these armies of professional fibbers spruiking for Agenda 21 by sooking about skating rinks and more ticks on Bambi. I suppose the good news is that the media conglomerates are sick of paying for so many climate spruikers when they can be making money producing shows about celebrities eating worms in a jungle.

      But thanks for reminding us again of just how bad the media are, Pat. Thanks for checking the septic on my behalf.

      40

  • #
    pat

    FakeNewsMSM, including ABC, Fairfax, NYT etc have their mantra, provided by Seth:

    19 Jan: Associated Press: AP FACT CHECK: Global warming hasn’t gone away despite cold
    By SETH BORENSTEIN
    In the midst of a Midwest cold spell, President Donald Trump is pleading for global warming to come back, but it never went away.
    Just like the Arctic air invading parts of the U.S. because of wandering pieces of the polar vortex, Earth’s warmth appears a bit temporarily displaced…
    THE FACTS: While the Midwest is in the grip of a chill that’s likely to set records, Earth is still considerably warmer than it was 30 years ago and especially 100 years ago.

    The lower 48 states make up only 1.6 percent of the globe and five western states are warmer than normal. The Earth as a whole — and it is global warming, not U.S. warming — on Tuesday is 0.54 degrees (0.3 degrees Celsius) warmer than the 1979 to 2000 average and 1.6 degrees warmer than it was on average about 100 years ago, according to data from the University of Maine’s Climate Reanalyzer and NASA.
    “This is simply an extreme weather event and not representative of global scale temperature trends,” said Northern Illinois University climate scientist Victor Gensini, who is in the midst of some of the worst subfreezing cold. “The exact opposite is happening in Australia right now.”

    Australia is broiling with triple-digit heat that is setting records opposite the Midwest. Adelaide last week was 115.9 degrees (46.6 Celsius), setting the record for the highest temperature ever set by a major Australian city.
    Trump is cherry picking cold weather to ignore the larger picture of a warming planet, said John Cook, a professor of climate change communications at George Mason University.
    “This myth is like arguing that nighttime proves the sun doesn’t exist,” Cook said.

    Even with global warming, winter, snowstorms and cold weather will continue to exist, say scientists and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration . That’s because Trump is conflating weather and climate. Weather is like mood, which is fleeting. Climate is like personality, which is long term and over large areas the size of continents, hemispheres and the planet.
    “In a warming world, you’re still going to have unusually hot and unusually cold events happening in a particular part of the world,” said Berkeley Earth climate scientist Zeke Hausfather. “Weather is not going away.”
    https://www.apnews.com/c7c1b544bf154a08b2e01209495b68d4

    30 Jan: ABC: Extreme cold to hit 55 million people in the US as polar vortex brings life-threatening temperatures
    Updated about an hour ago
    by AP/ABC
    While the US is in the grip of a chill that is likely to set records, Earth is still considerably warmer than it was 30 years ago and especially 100 years ago…ETC

    30 Jan: Brisbane Times (Fairfax): AP: Global warming hasn’t gone away despite cold, as Trump tweet suggests
    However, while the Midwest is in the grip of a chill that’s likely to set records, the earth is still considerably warmer than it was 30 years ago and and especially 100 years ago.

    AP FACT CHECK: Global Warming Hasn’t Gone Away Despite Cold
    NYT – 29 Jan 2018
    In the midst of a Midwest cold spell, President Donald Trump is pleading for global warming to come back, but it never went away…

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  • #
    Bill In Oz

    Surely it is time to mount a major scare campaign against the Warmists !

    A NEW AGE OF ICE STARTED IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE !!!!!

    BE PREPARED !

    Come Spring the world will warm up again..

    And the populations of Europe and North America etc will heave a great sigh of thanks for “warming” !

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  • #
    Bill In Oz

    Some dude says ““This is simply an extreme weather event and not representative of global scale temperature trends,”

    Ummmmm? I wonder what it would take to convince him that it is part of ‘a global temperature trend’ ?

    Temperatures well below the Acrtic Winter normal ?

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  • #
    pat

    a little odd! just heard a caller concerned about this on 2GB, with Steve Price defending it, saying Clive Palmer runs ads on 2GB!

    29 Jan: Daily Mail: Chinese ‘propaganda’ is aired before children’s movie screenings at Australian cinemas
    •Viewers have claimed Chinese ‘propaganda’ is shown ahead of children’s films
    •Advertising by TangRen Film Group is accused of having propaganda for China
    •The advertising promoted ‘Chinese political philosophies’ and culture
    •Critics claim it is one part of a long running ‘soft power’ campaign
    By Adam Mccleery
    At a recent screening of How to Train Your Dragon 3 viewers at the George Street Event Cinema in Sydney were shown an advertisement by Chinese film distribution company TangRen.
    The Daily Telegraph claims that viewers complained the advertisement was ‘promoting socialism with Chinese characteristics and aimed at increasing China’s “soft power” within Australia’…

    The advertisement, which is voiced over in Mandarin, talks about ‘promoting Chinese political philosophies’ along with ‘producing an important influence on Western society’ before finishing with mentions of ‘enhancing cultural soft power and promoting Chinese culture to the world!’.
    Sydney is not the only place the advertisement has been run, with a social media user form Perth taking to the ‘Hong Kong and China Not The Same’ Facebook page to voice her concerns.
    TangRen, a prominent film group within Australia and New Zealand, is responsible for two thirds of all Chinese and Korean films distributed in the two countries.

    Daily Mail Australia attempted to contact the TangRen Cultural Film Group for comment.
    The concept of soft power derives from the fifth century Chinese philosopher Laozi (Lao-tzu) who said that ‘a leader is best not when people obey his commands, but when they barely know he exists’.
    University of Technology Sydney associate professor Chongyi Feng told The Daily Telegraph the advertisement was designed to spread China’s ‘Grand External Propaganda’ in Australia.
    ‘The task is to tell the story along the party lines and (control the) narrative around China that will project the right image to the world,’ he said…
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6641785/Chinese-propaganda-aired-childrens-movie-screenings-Australian-cinemas.html

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  • #

    .
    ❶①❶①❶①❶①❶①❶①❶①❶①❶①❶①❶
    ❶①❶①
    ❶①❶① . . . Sou from HotWhopper called me a “spineless wuss” . . .
    ❶①❶①
    ❶①❶①❶①❶①❶①❶①❶①❶①❶①❶①❶
    .

    Before you leap to my defence (you were going to leap to my defence, weren’t you?), I am a big boy, and I can stick up for myself.

    Since Sou from HotWhopper wrote an article about me, I have returned the favour.

    Here is a small sample from my article.

    Sou from HotWhopper said:
    “I don’t know why deniers take offense at being called deniers.”

    I said:
    “I am also confused by this.”

    “I also don’t know why “Alarmist arseholes” take offense at being called “Alarmist arseholes”.”

    “Perhaps science will provide the answers to these perplexing questions.”

    If you want to read more, click this link:

    https://agree-to-disagree.com/hotwhopper

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    pat

    30 Jan: CNN: Extreme weather is so bad in some parts of the country, even the US Postal Service won’t be going out
    By Steve Almasy, Holly Yan and Christina Maxouris
    Minnesota could see 70 degree below wind chill
    Even for the hardiest, cold-tested Americans, this week’s deep freeze is brutal, with dozens of temperature and wind chill records expected to occur from the Dakotas to Long Island, leading to warnings for people to stay inside.

    In Minnesota, blustery weather could mean wind chills that could approach 70 below.
    “These are VERY DANGEROUS conditions and can lead to frostbite on exposed skin in as little as five minutes where wind chill values are below -50,” the National Weather Service office near Minneapolis and St. Paul tweeted. “Best thing you can do is limit your time outside.”…
    “The coldest air in a generation is sinking south, with below-zero temperatures already in the Upper Midwest,” CNN meteorologist Dave Hennen said Tuesday. “And the worst yet to come.”

    The bitter weather has also snarled travel in even the hardiest cities. More than 2,700 flights involving US airports are canceled for Tuesday and Wednesday, including more than 1,550 in and out of Chicago airports, according to FlightAware.com.
    Millions of Americans grappling with the cold would be better off warming up in parts of Antarctica.

    Chicago could reach a record low temperature of 27 below zero by Thursday morning…
    Roughly 212 million, or 72% of the continental US population, will see temperatures drop below freezing over the next few days. And more than 83 million Americans — about 25% of the US population — will suffer subzero temperatures sometime between Wednesday and Monday…

    “Bigger vehicles like UPS trucks and garbage trucks or semis are stalling out,” he said. “Their fuel is gelling up and their engines can’t run.”…
    The wind chill at Grand Forks International Airport was 61 degrees below zero, the National Weather Service said. That’s from an actual temperature of 25 below and a wind gust of 44 mph…

    Wind chills will plummet to 30-70 degrees below zero this week in parts of the northern Plains and Great Lakes region, Hennen said.
    In northern Minnesota, wind chills were forecast to drop to 65-70 degrees below zero, which would rival the coldest wind chill ever recorded in the state (71 below) in 1982.
    In its 8 p.m. update, the National Weather Service said the municipal airport in Benson, Minnesota, recorded a wind chill of 62 below…

    But already, at least three deaths have been attributed to the extreme cold.
    The latest storm-related fatality was a 55-year-old man who was found dead Tuesday in the detached garage of his Milwaukee home. The man apparently collapsed after shoveling snow, according to the medical examiner’s office.
    On Sunday, a man in Rochester, Minnesota, was found dead outside the home where he was staying with a relative.
    Ali Alfred Gombo, 22, didn’t have keys to the home and was unable to enter after being dropped off outside early Sunday morning, CNN affiliate KIMT reported…
    And in Illinois, a man was killed Monday “after a roadway crash involving a village plow truck and a pedestrian,” Libertyville police said…
    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/29/weather/winter-weather-tuesday-wxc/index.html

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    pat

    30 Jan: Accuweather: 75 below zero? Polar vortex brings life-threatening chill, staggeringly low AccuWeather RealFeel Temperatures
    By Brian Lada, AccuWeather meteorologist and staff writer
    Grand Forks, North Dakota, observed an AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperature of minus 75 degrees F on Tuesday morning as winds whipped around at over 30 mph.
    Values this low can cause frost bite on exposed skin in a matter of minutes.
    https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/75-below-zero-polar-vortex-brings-life-threatening-chill-staggeringly-low-accuweather-realfeel-temperatures/70007291

    VIDEO: 51sec: 29 Jan: BBC: Chicago’s frozen river from above
    Much of Chicago River has frozen over, as the US city experiences close to record low temperatures.
    It could get as cold as -33C (-27F), with winds making that feel closer to -45C (-50F), officials say.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-us-canada-47050928/chicago-s-frozen-river-from-above

    Youtube: 47sec: 29 Jan: East Coast Subzero Temperature – Chicago River Frozen 01/29/19
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mT_qddqpbYA

    ‘This is historic cold’: Extreme, dangerous freeze descends on the Midwest
    Washington Post-9 hours ago
    One forecast model — the European — predicts that Chicago will hit minus-29 … The temperature at the Thief River Falls airport registered minus-25 at sunrise …

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    AndyG55

    We see a cooling trend,” said Martin Mlynczak of NASA’s Langley Research Center. “High above Earth’s surface, near the edge of space, our atmosphere is losing heat energy. If current trends continue, it could soon set a Space Age record for cold.”

    The new data is coming from NASA’s Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry or SABER instrument, which is onboard the space agency’s Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite. SABER monitors infrared radiation from carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitric oxide (NO), two substances that play a vital role in the energy output of our thermosphere, the very top level of our atmosphere.

    “The thermosphere always cools off during Solar Minimum. It’s one of the most important ways the solar cycle affects our planet,” said Mlynczak, who is the associate principal investigator for SABER.

    The new NASA findings are in line with studies released by UC-San Diego and Northumbria University in Great Britain last year, both of which predict a Grand Solar Minimum in coming decades due to low sunspot activity. Both studies predicted sun activity similar to the Maunder Minimum of the mid-17th to early 18th centuries, which coincided to a time known as the Little Ice Age, during which temperatures were much lower than those of today.

    more here

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-29/amidst-global-warming-hysteria-nasa-scientists-expect-global-cooling

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      robert rosicka

      Quick everyone pump some more Co2 into the atmosphere before the public becomes aware of the CAGW scam .

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    dennisambler

    “It’s like arguing that the sun no longer exists when it gets dark at night.”

    Where does the warmth go when the big light goes off at night?

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    pat

    28 Jan: PV Mag: France to tender 17.2 GW of solar up to 2025
    In the complete version of France’s new energy strategy – the “Programmation pluriannuelle de l’énergie” (LINK) (PPE) published by the Ministry for the Ecological and Inclusive Transition of France on Friday, and now under consultation – the French government has provided an outline of how much solar and renewables will be tendered up to 2025…

    Nuclear will remain dominant
    The largest share of power generation by 2028, however, will still be taken by nuclear. With the controversial power source meeting around 71.6% of France’s demand at the moment, the government wanted that figure to fall to half by 2025 but has now admitted defeat on that ambition.

    “The target of 50% of nuclear power in the production of electricity in 2025 seemed impossible to achieve without the possibility of putting at risk electricity supply in France, or restarting the construction of fossil-fired power plants, which would be contrary to our goals of fighting climate change,” the authors of the document affirmed.

    As a result, 14 nuclear reactors have had a stay of execution until 2035, after originally having been intended to be shuttered by 2025. A clear timeframe, however, is still missing. “The final version of the PPE will identify the sites on which these closures will intervene as a priority,” the strategy stated. “EDF will have to transmit to the government during the consultation period of the PPE, a list of concerned nuclear sites by favoring the shutdowns of reactors leading to the complete stop of any site in order to minimize the social and economic impacts of these closures.”

    France has 19 operating nuclear power plants with a combined capacity of 63.2 GW and producing energy for €32-33/MWh, taking into account EDF’s Grand Carénage life extension program, which is aimed at extending the lives of the reactors beyond 40 years. That price range, the strategy noted, is not sensitive to fluctuations in uranium prices but it also does not include the cost of dismantling and managing radioactive waste already created by the plant operators.

    According to the document, the French Court of Auditors estimated the cost of producing nuclear power at around €61.6/MWh, including operating and end-of-life costs. Those costs, however, were calculated before the Grand Carénage which, according to the new energy strategy, has lowered EDF’s projected nuclear fleet expenses by 2025 from €55 billion to €45 billion. The document also stresses the nuclear sector employs around 220,000 people – about 6.7% of France’s energy workforce.
    The French parliament will consider adopting the new energy law following the public consultation
    https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/01/28/france-to-tender-17-2-gw-of-solar-up-to-2025/

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    pat

    29 Jan: CarbonBrief: China’s methane emissions rise despite tougher laws, satellite data shows
    by Daisy Dunne
    The data, which is published in Nature Communications (LINK), finds China’s methane emissions rose by 1.1m tonnes a year between 2010 and 2015. This could account for up to a quarter of the rise in methane emissions seen globally over that period, the study finds.
    China is the world’s largest emitter of methane – a greenhouse gas that is 34 times more potent than CO2 over a 100-year period.

    The findings show how satellites can be used to pinpoint greenhouse gas emissions “from misbehaving industries that nobody may have suspected”, the lead author tells Carbon Brief…
    Globally, the largest driver of human-caused methane emissions is agriculture – particularly livestock and rice production…

    China is the world’s largest producer and consumer of coal. When coal is mined, methane can escape from the “coal seam” – the name given to a layer of coal in the earth that is thick enough to be exploited, says study lead author Prof Scot Miller, a researcher of greenhouse gases and air pollution from John Hopkins University in Baltimore. He tells Carbon Brief…READ ON
    https://www.carbonbrief.org/chinas-methane-emissions-rise-despite-tougher-laws-satellite-data-shows

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    pat

    29 Jan: WSJ Editorial: World’s Dumbest Energy Policy
    After giving up nuclear power, Germany now wants to abandon coal.
    Dumb environmental policies are routine across Europe—see Emmanuel Macron’s riot-inducing fuel tax in France—but even by that standard Germany’s new plan to abandon coal is notable. Having wasted uncountable billions of euros on renewables and inflicted some of Europe’s highest energy prices on German households and businesses, now Berlin is promising to kill the one reliable power source Germany has left…

    The energiewende, or energy transformation, championed by Chancellor Angela Merkel heavily subsidizes unreliable wind and solar power, making it uneconomical for utilities to invest in cleaner natural gas…

    Utilities have fallen back on cheaper but dirtier coal to fill the supply gaps when the wind doesn’t blow or the sun isn’t shining.
    Not that a new coal ban will help much. Critics such as Karen Pittel of the Ifo think tank in Munich note that Germany is likely to import coal-fired electricity from Poland and the Czech Republic. And whatever Germany does to keep the lights on, the coal phase-out involves more green subsidies—some €40 billion to compensate utilities for prematurely closing coal-fired plants, the commission estimates.

    Mrs. Merkel’s government is expected to approve the commission’s plan. But her tenure as Chancellor will end long before coal-fired electricity does. Her successor will have an opportunity to call time on Mrs. Merkel’s green follies, and Germany’s beleaguered bill-payers should hope that he or she does.
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/worlds-dumbest-energy-policy-11548807424

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  • #
    pat

    30 Jan: UK Times: Largest UK gas find in decade fuels optimism for North Sea
    by Greig Cameron, Scottish Business Editor
    The Glengorm prospect in the central North Sea, about 120 miles east of Aberdeen, is estimated to contain gas and condensate volumes equivalent to about 250 million barrels of oil.

    It was drilled by a trio of international companies — the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (Cnooc), Total of France and Edison E&P of Italy.
    Glengorm is the largest UK gas find since Culzean in 2008, and the 11th biggest discovery of any kind in UK waters for 30 years, according to analysts from Wood Mackenzie, the energy consultancy…
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/9b4adb26-23e1-11e9-b782-40e94f317da5

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    pat

    30 Jan: EurActiv: MEPs in dust-up over EU’s climate plan
    By Sam Morgan
    European lawmakers are locked in a dispute over a landmark climate plan that is meant to drag the EU into compliance with the Paris Agreement, as parliamentary committees tussle over who should take the lead.
    When the European Commission unveiled its climate strategy for 2050 in November, it was generally accepted that the Parliament’s environment committee (ENVI) would pen a resolution effectively setting out the EU assembly’s position…

    But the process has become convoluted by the energy committee (ITRE), chaired by Polish MEP Jerzy Buzek (EPP), which disputed the state-of-play with support from the transport committee.
    It has now started work on its own resolution, rather than submit amendments to the ENVI effort…

    In a first draft of the ENVI resolution (LINK), seen by EURACTIV, MEPs welcomed the Commission’s effort but warn that of the several scenarios on offer only the two net-zero emissions options are “compatible with the Union’s [Paris Agreement] commitment”…
    MEPs decided in October to support bumping up that goal from 40% to 55% but there is no mention of an exact figure in the current draft, although EURACTIV understands that amendments to that effect will be submitted before the end of the month…

    If climate talks at the Sibiu summit in May are hamstrung due to lack of progress at the technical level or relegated by other matters like Brexit or migration, then the EU could struggle to submit its long-term plan by 2020, a caveat of the Paris Agreement…
    https://www.euractiv.com/section/climate-strategy-2050/news/meps-in-dust-up-over-eus-climate-plan/

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    pat

    lengthy, ultra-fake-news CNN, with links:

    29 Jan: CNN: The great irony of climate change politics is red states face more pain
    Analysis by Ronald Brownstein
    Climate change will impose the greatest economic losses on Republican-leaning areas of the country that are almost uniformly resisting new efforts to combat it, according to a sweeping new study released Tuesday.

    In the study, researchers at the Brookings Institution’s Metropolitan Policy Program found that states, counties and congressional districts that voted Republican in 2016 and 2018 will suffer greater economic and environmental damages from a changing climate over the coming decades than places that voted Democratic in the past two elections. As a share of income, rural areas that now break predominantly for the GOP will likewise suffer greater losses than the metropolitan centers that have become the backbone of the Democratic coalition…

    The Brookings study tracked these dynamics by using a county-level model of the impact of climate change developed by the Climate Impact Lab, a consortium that includes scientists and economists from several institutions, including the University of California at Berkeley, the University of Chicago and Rutgers University…

    The study found that Trump carried nine of the top 10, and 16 of the top 20, states projected to suffer the most economic damage from a changing climate over the coming decades…
    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/29/politics/climate-change-irony-brookings/index.html

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    Bill In Oz

    The Chiefio has posted an excellent post on the lack of weather readings in any quantity for Antarctica and the Southern Ocean..Not often that anyone in the Northern hemisphere does post with a southern hemisphere perspective..

    https://chiefio.wordpress.com/

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    TdeF

    https://www.breitbart.com/entertainment/2019/01/30/hollywood-melts-after-trump-mocks-global-warming-inhumane-unethical-pathetic-imbecile/ after Donald Trump’s tweet

    ““In the beautiful Midwest, windchill temperatures are reaching minus 60 degrees, the coldest ever recorded. In coming days, expected to get even colder,” Trump said. “People can’t last outside even for minutes. What the hell is going on with Global Waming? Please come back fast, we need you!”

    They even ridicule his typo. The problem is that Hollywood arguing record cold is actually warming flies in the face of reality. Only Hollywood knows that “the weather and the climate are different” when in fact the climate is made wholly and solely, 100% from the weather and a warmer climate means warmer weather.

    A bit like Cook’s complete lack of self awareness when he attacks people’s view of his science as irrational, as if he was a real scientist instead of a commentator. Like Flannery and Gore, Cook assumes he understands Rational science because he has a view and could not possibly be wrong. It is the arrogance of ignorance.

    Telling people cold is hot does sound quite mad. Most people would agree with Trump. Like the Moonies, Hollywood needs deprogramming.

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    • #
      TdeF

      I am seriously puzzled. Has anyone actually explained how warming makes things colder? I mean an actual explanation, apart from the usual nonsense that warming somehow makes things more extreme, even the cold bits. It’s bad enough with the total lack of evidence that the CO2 increase is man made, that increased CO2 makes the planet substantially warmer without having to accept that a warmer planet is also colder.

      How can you deny something when no one has even tried to prove it? How can the climate be different from the weather when it is simply an average of the weather? How can John Cook not see he is playing with semantics, not reality?

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    GD

    It doesn’t matter if it’s flood, drought, heat waves, hail storms, freezing cold, or earthquakes, it’s all caused by mankind. We are the evil presence on the planet and we must pay.

    Funny thing is we have to pay other evil humans for the damage we have ‘inflicted’ on the planet. How does that work?

    Even TV ads are now telling us to ‘save the planet’, much like the supermarkets have already done.

    When will everyday man wake up to this hoax? Surely the populace isn’t that stupid.

    Unfortunately, my immediate family is that misguided. They are avid ABC watchers and are convinced that the Great Barrier Reef is in its death throes, that coal mines are toxic and the Adani coal mine will pollute the rivers to the extent that it will harm the supposedly dying GBR.

    With a federal election in a few months time, it’s worrying that so many people believe the propaganda. The recent re-election of the leftist Andrews government in Victoria is an alarming example.

    Last Friday, over 200,000 homes in Victoria were blacked-out on a hot day, not a heatwave, and the Premier and Energy Minister have both denied culpability for the black-outs but praised the minuscule intermittent energy supplied by wind and solar.

    It is obvious that the lunatics are in charge and are keeping the general populace in the dark and feeding them bullsh*t.

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