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Turn off all wind and solar at 6pm peak time — makes no difference

All those billions we spent and yet at 6pm, many days coal, gas and hydro provide 98% of the power Australia needs. Wind and solar are our spare bikes, the third ski, the Banana-Slicers of the National Grid (read those reviews). Just what would we do if wind and solar were all we had? — Jo

At peak time intermittent renewables often make less than 2% of total Australian electricity

Guest Post by Anton Lang (TonyFromOz)

h/t to Rafe Campion at Catalaxy

When power is required the most, wind and solar are missing almost entirely. This isn’t cherry picking of one time — peak time is the most important time on the grid, when the most power is required.  The almost non-existent contribution from renewables is so common it has occurred now for seven days out of the last 14 days.

I’ve been doing a series on the Australian generation and demand curves on a daily basis for seven weeks, the totals are settling down, so that now the percentage changes are only in tenths of a percent, and consider that when it comes to total power and coal fired power, a tenth of one percent is 600MegaWattHours, so at that end of the scale, small is actually large, if you can see that.

At the moment, after 10 weeks, coal fired power is delivering 72.37% of all power, and wind is delivering only 6.16% of all generated power. I have all the percentages, but those two are the ones of most importance. Wind power has just had a very good week (for wind), but in the end, coal fired power is still delivering more than 3 times the total for every renewable power source in the country.

You might wonder why I haven’t mentioned solar power here, because ALL the solar plants, (not rooftop solar) only generate 0.38% of the required power, so just a tick above nothing at all.

Wind, solar, peak time, Australian NEM.

….

The main evening peak occurs at 5.30 to 6PM, when power consumption is always at its greatest when people come home, cook dinner, throw on the washing and have showers. (Note here the time, 5.30/6PM, so the Sun has set and there is ZERO power from any solar power plant, and also ZERO power from any rooftop solar installation as well). It’s that one point in time when a large supply of power is at its most critical, so now look at this data for seven days of 14 days in the middle of winter. Wind has had a poor time of it lately, due to those High Pressure weather systems hovering over the area where there is the largest concentration of wind plants, hence very little pressure gradients for wind, and they are in South Australia and Victoria.

Here’s a sample of seven of those 14 midwinter days at 6pm peak power time:

  • Wednesday 20 June – Peak power – 29680MW. Wind power – 500MW. Total from wind and solar  - 1.7%
  • Thursday 21 June – Peak – 29950MW. Wind – 100MW. Total from wind and solar – 0.33%
  • Monday 25 June – Peak – 30870MW. Wind – 170MW. Total from wind and solar – 0.48%
  • Tuesday 26 June – Peak – 30600MW. Wind – 340MW. Total from wind and solar – 1.1%
  • Wednesday 27 June – Peak – 30480MW. Wind – 340MW. Total from wind and solar – 1.1%
  • Thursday 28 June – Peak – 30400MW. Wind – 450MW. Total from wind and solar – 1.5%
  • Sunday 01 July – Peak – 28190MW. Wind – 200MW. Total from wind and solar – 0.7%

There were three other days when it was between 2% and 3%, but these are the seven lowest. This is all wind, as the Sun has set and in winter, solar is useless at 6pm.

So, when power is required the most, wind and solar are missing almost entirely. The point here is that even though the country is consuming the most electricity it actually can consume, on those 14 days, almost ALL OF IT was actually being delivered from coal fired power, natural gas fired power, and hydro power.

From the low point of 0.3% (100MW of that Peak) to the high point of 2%, (600MW) is between one and three units at a gas plant just waiting for the call already to ‘fire up’. The fact that those three main sources have already proved they can handle it is an indictment on the total and utter uselessness of wind power, solar power, and rooftop solar power.

Coal power just keeps going, while hydro and gas are volatile depending on wind generation

There was something I noticed after a week or two of doing it, and that was that whatever wind power did, up, or down, it had no effect at all on what coal fired power was supplying. At first I thought it may have been an anomaly or a short term thing, but after seven weeks now, it is in fact the case.

Wind power varies wildly on a daily basis, but coal fired power just kept delivering within its close range of power generation, no matter what.

What they were using as an ‘adjustment’ factor was natural gas fired power, and also hydro power as well. So, if wind power was up, then those other two were down, and when wind power was down, then those other two were up. And coal fired power stayed (virtually) the same. You might think that (keeping in mind that I said earlier that with coal fired power, big can ‘look’ small) any change would be subject to ‘scale’, but here I’m talking of wind varying by sometimes hundreds and more MW, and the other two the same also, but coal fired power only changed by perhaps one hundred MW up or down, so nothing really. The confirmation came on two days last week, the Thursday and Friday, and look at these figures, and these are the average power delivery per hour across the day.

Thursday coal fired power – 18600MW and wind power – 710MW

Friday coal fired power – 18500MW and wind power 2450MW, and overall power generation was 300MW lower at an average of 25200MW per hour.

So, while overall power consumption was ever so slightly lower, wind power was up by 1740MW , and coal fired power only changed by 100MW, and while this one is the most obvious, all the other changes also reflect very little change for coal fired power when wind power varies so wildly on that daily basis.

TonyFromOz series on daily Australian power supply and demand. The Latest week results, (week 10) and there will be a new one next Monday

 

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Turn off all wind and solar at 6pm peak time -- makes no difference, 9.4 out of 10 based on 96 ratings

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132 comments to Turn off all wind and solar at 6pm peak time — makes no difference

  • #
    Annie

    What would we do Jo? We’d be in very deep trouble indeed. Ignorance or wilful planning?

    202

    • #
      Annie

      Tony, you must feel utterly frustrated, bearing in mind one of the latest posts on the Midweek Unthreaded.

      202

    • #
      ColA

      I got side tracked to the banana slicer!
      Well found Jo, love the PC comment!

      “I tried the banana slicer and found it unacceptable. As shown in the picture, the slicer is curved from left to right. All of my bananas are bent the other way.”

      50

    • #
      Phil

      UK goes 1000hrs in first half of year without coal.

      10

      • #
        William

        Luckily they have nuclear power to fill the gaps when the wind doesn’t blow and the sun don’t shine.

        20

        • #
          Phil

          Ah yes nuclear. Never cheap and never on time. Their new Hinkley Point C nuclear reactor is a slow motion train wreck. According to the times UK Hinkley Point cost could soar to £50bn. “Building work at the Hinkley Point C site in Somerset. The project may end up costing more than eight times higher than the original £6 billion estimate” according to the National Audit Office.

          For the same price as Hinkley Point C, which will provide 3,200MW of capacity, almost 50,000MW of gas-fired power capacity could be built!

          20

      • #

        UK goes 3400hrs in first half of year with coal.

        30

  • #

    For those of you who have been following the Series, thanks.

    I thought it would be harder than it is turning out to be, harder by virtue of time consuming, mainly with the nine images.

    I also wondered what I would put in the comments for the day on each day, but there’s never been any shortage of things to bring up, and if the truth is to be told, I’m even learning things as well.

    There is a distinct difference between working week days and weekend days, and yesterday, Monday, I showed what that difference was. During the time after that morning low point, the 4AM Base Load minimum, and the evening peak is 12 hours.

    On Sundays, people are at home, and there is not all that much in the way of work going on, normal work places I mean here, so a larger component than normal on weekends, especially Sundays, is in that residential sector.

    However, on the Monday, that first day of the working week, the level of power between those two points in time is 4000MW higher, across the board, and all through the day, so in actual fact it’s higher than that, because with people at work, then there’s even less power consumption in that Residential sector.
    A lot of that extra power consumption is also due to what is being consumed in schools as well.

    At the link below, I explain it a little more, and also use those graphs for the two days showing that difference.

    I have Rob Leviston to thanks for the initial suggestion, and as much as this may be of interest to readers, it’s also of interest to me as well, so thanks again Rob.

    Australian Daily Electrical Power Generation Data – Monday 23rd July 2018

    Tony.

    460

    • #
      Bodge it an scarpa

      I have shared your complete post to Facebook, Tony.
      I did some minor editing, mainly for ease of understanding for most FB users that don’t visit Jo’s blog. Few FBers would have the attention span to read it unfortunately, but they probably do represent a broad cross section of the general community, IMO the people who we must try to reach if we are to have any hope of saving our coal fired plants.

      360

    • #
      PeterS

      Tony you do some really great work. If you haven’t already, is it possible for you to model and forecast what the impact will be on the sustainability of our grid under the two broad approaches that are aimed at increasing our reliance on renewables under the respective policies of the two major parties? Unless the public are completely brain dead it ought to wake up much of the population and as a result stir up at least some politicians into action. I’m not asking for an accurate model to forecast how often and how long we would experience blackouts (although that would nice) but just an indication of when things would get critical. If it’s too hard I understand.

      140

      • #

        PeterS,

        as much as I would like to think I could actually do something like this, I’m enough of a realist to pretty much know it’s a virtually impossible task.

        Having watched the grid for so may years now, I have seen how it is handled, and as much as we (collectively) might hope that it fails, so the big lesson can be learned, that will never be allowed to happen.

        I’m amazed at just how well the grid is managed. (and here I mean by the actual people who do the work, not the people at the upper echelons of Management, nor the politicians, because those people have little knowledge of what is actually happening)

        On a daily basis, there are problems which we, as untrained people might think would lead to the failure of at least sections of the grid, but it just never happens, unless it is like that instantaneous failure in South Aus that happened before anyone even knew, so, it was all but impossible to handle something like that.

        However, the grid continues to function, despite what problems get thrown up.

        So, even attempting to model something as complex as that, with so many variables would be beyond me.

        Whatever happens, the people I mentioned above who run the grid on that day to day basis will do everything possible to keep the grid up and running.

        The point I am attempting to make is that you need at least 14000MW+ (at the very least) of solid reliable power generation ALL THE TIME. That’s at the 4AM point in time, and that is what is supplied by coal fired power. On a daily basis, that coal fired power will then ramp up, down, and back up again to the evening Peak, where it needs to be supplying around 18000MW, and that’s the minimum. Coal fired power DOES do this on that daily basis, ramps up and down by around 4000MW to 5000MW.

        You can have all the (huge overbuild of) reneweables, wind and solar you like, but what then happens when you do have days like this? You can’t just sit around tapping your fingers, waiting for the High pressure system to move Eastwards, or for the Sun to come back up. Australia just STOPS.

        If there is a case where that 14000MW Minimum is not in place, then it becomes problematic. It can be handled, but it becomes difficult.

        Even down time for maintenance is now problematic. It’s scheduled for the benign Seasons, (Spring and Autumn) and at other times, it is usually done on weekends when consumption is lower by around 6 to 10%.

        Politicians (of any persuasion) can say whatever they like, but until there is an understanding of just how important coal fired power really is, the BASE upon which everything else is added to top up the grid, then everything else of a political nature is just that, politics they think the people want to hear.

        Tony.

        210

        • #
          PeterS

          Thanks Tony. That’s the impressions I got from your earlier post explaining the resilience of our grid in spite of the increasing use of renewables. I presume though at some point if enough coal fired power stations are closed down, which would take at least a decade or so to work through the list, we will have the blackouts we fear. So the only other way we will wake up en mass in the shorter term is for prices to keep on increasing to the point of forcing the closure of so many businesses that job losses become a serious issue. Cost of power to residents though won’t become a real issue until after that because people will cut spending in other areas to offset the price increases, as is happening right now, at least to a point. So businesses will be the first to go since no serious business will want to run at a loss for long. In any case it’s a race to an economic death, one way or another, unless of course the people wake up beforehand and refuse to allow either major party to form a majority government. I’m not expecting that to happen but let’s wait and see.

          80

        • #
          Bodge it an scarpa

          So aside from the country being broke after wasting billions that could have been spent on much more worthy causes, and ever increasing power prices forcing many into energy poverty, plus industries closing down or move offshore with the attendant increase in unemployment, we really have nothing to worry about :-)

          120

    • #
      RexAlan

      Thank you Tony. I always enjoy reading your posts and learn so much from them.

      RexAlan

      290

    • #
      Sambar

      Tony heard on the local news yesterday that the Climate Council, once again, have declared that coal is not a vialble way to go.
      The gist of the statement was along the lines of ” A new coal fired power station, with carbon capture technology, would cost more to build than an equivalent renewable enery source. Therefore coal is not viable.’ No mention of course, that regardless of initial build cost, coal provides electricy 24 hours a day, power production costs are based on government greed ( royalty fees on tonnes of coal mined) so therefore can be much cheaper than other sources….
      Ah well, as I stuggle to pay my power bills I just hope I live long enough to see common sense return !!!

      Thanks for your regular posts most informative.

      220

      • #

        Not bad. A well-funded (by elves at the bottom of the garden, of course) green NGO comes up with a white elephant/doomed technology which must be attached to any new coal plant…then tells us that coal just won’t fly any more. It’s a bit like making Phar Lap carry a load of bricks then telling us he’s over-rated.

        Never mind. Uphill Snowy will save us. Or another Mt Lithium. Or maybe secret panzer divisions. Or something.

        Guys, it’s after 8am 26/7/2018 and Malcolm Turnbull is still in power, Josh Frydenberg is still Minister for the Environment and Energy. Ben Ean Julie is still waiting dagger in hand if they falter with backs turned, and a putrescent-green Labor alternative can’t wait to get its hand on both the energy tap and migrant tap.

        Nobody but a small clique wants any of these people, nobody but a small clique wants their policies. Yet there they are, unwanted but in the full bloom of power. How is this possible?

        230

        • #
          Mal

          The greenie supporting propaganda in the media keeps the lie going.
          Just proves the pen is mightier than the sword.
          Most people just don’t have the ability to think critically and therefore are easily led by opinions in the media.
          The left are masters of political manipulation.

          60

      • #
        Chad

        Sambar.. The actual quote from the report was..

        The estimated cost of building a coal power station with carbon capture and storage in Australia is over six times the equivalent cost of Australia’s largest wind farm.

        Which is a garbage statement on many levels…no actual costs, or output figures, and suggesting a technology that is not yet viable (CCS)
        Our largest windfarm is McArthur at 420MW nameplate ..approx 140 MW avarage capacity ( with a few interuptions !)
        Even six of those would only supply 840MW of intermittent power, whilst that similarly priced emmissions free (???, but HELE at least) coal plant could supply at least double , continuously, for at least twice the life span of those wind farms

        60

        • #
          Just Thinkin'

          Just remember that NONE of this “bird chomping” power is synchronous….

          And neither is solar…

          And just looking at the Western Australian “wind” power over the last
          couple of days would have us all back in the caves looking for our candles…

          00

    • #
      TedM

      Just got to say thanks again Tony. I look forward to following you posts at PApundits.

      110

    • #
      Peter Fitzroy

      Using the shortest day for the year – and then saying how low solar output is at 6 pm greatly weakens any subsequent argument you might make. Of course, solar will be low at this time, and it does highlight the problem that alternative industrial grade power sources have, but still it would have been fairer to use the solstice as your use case.

      118

      • #

        Not sure of the point here. Tony is talking about July 23, more than a month on from the shortest day of the year. His subject is this week. I guess he could talk about summer solstice at summer solstice when it comes round.

        Since solar is zero to low all year at 6pm I can’t see the point of of your comment re time of day. Solar (which I like as limited tech and which I still use) is expensive, diffuse, and intermittent. Coal power is cheap, concentrated and constant.

        At either solstice, winter or summer, solar will be expensive, diffuse, and intermittent. At either solstice, coal will be cheap, concentrated and constant. Same goes for any day.

        Anyway, let’s talk about more urgent things. It’s nearly 10am and globalist automaton Frydenberg is still our energy minister. No, really. He actually is. Still.

        200

        • #
          Peter Fitzroy

          look at the graph – it is June 21

          41

          • #

            But look at the comment to which you are responding. (And look at link provided in the top article.)

            As for the graph in the article, the date is shown clearly so there’s hardly any deception. Surely it’s critical to illustrate how low things can go. Modern populations and infrastructure need good supply all the time, not a good average. It’s like the old cartoon where the pilot asks the refueler if he’s getting enough fill for the Tasman and he’s told it should easily get him most of the way. Really, I needed to know about that 0.33% on June 21 when coal power was all that was making it.

            40

          • #
            Rob Leviston

            Peter, I understand your point. This series had only been running for around 7 -8 weeks, so the summer solstice figures are not available. However, what Tony had discovered, is that despite the rhetoric from the RE crowd, wind and solar are not having a devastating effect on coal! Coal is doing what it does, day in and day out. And at 6 pm. Solar is gone out close to it, and wind is, well whatever we are getting at the time! And that is a very low percentage of the current demand!I suggest you get the link to the series, and stay following it, and you may learn something!

            100

      • #
        beowulf

        You seem to miss the point entirely Peter. The grid needs power 24/7/365 in the right quantity at the right time of day, not just some yearly average based on the solstice figures which are an irrelevance for the other 99% of days in the year. Looking at your post I think you might have meant to say the equinox when day/night length is equal. It doesn’t matter, the argument is still the same — 2 days out of 365. Summer is hotter; winter is colder; they both have higher power requirements than average.

        If solar can’t cut it on many days of the year then let’s say so, not pretend it’s OK because solar produced power on a limited number of days. In any case, how much power do you imagine solar delivers at 6pm on the solstices?

        170

      • #

        Peter Fitzroy,

        using the winter totals is not really all that different to totals at any time of the year.

        If you are aware of the Insolation curve for (any form of) Solar power, then you can see that at 6PM, even in Summer, there is very little solar power at all, and the only real reason there is ANY solar power in Summer at 6PM, is due to only one thing ….. Daylight Savings, and even then, that Solar Insolation Curve is approaching zero very steeply.

        And when you have solar power plants delivering les than half of one percent total of all generated power, and rooftop solar barely managing 3.5%, even if it could be made to generate at its best at 6PM, that would mean Daylight savings not just turning the clock forwards by one hour, but by six hours, all year round.

        Look at the Insolation curves for solar power and it’s obvious.

        Tony.

        190

        • #
          Peter Fitzroy

          I’m in full agreement regarding the argument about solar – my point remains using the 21st of June is always going to give you the lowest solar value, which is which will skew any comparison between energy provided by solar and that provided by traditional methods.

          35

          • #

            Peter Fitzroy,

            even at the height of Summer, and with daylight savings, you would still only be getting around 1% of the power from ALL solar power at that Peak Time, and that’s from rooftop solar and solar power plants, because of the very nature of that curve for insolation, which dictates actual power generation from ANY solar source. Even in the Summer, it’s all but back to zero.

            What’s the difference between 0 and 1%, when what is actually needed at that time is around 28000MW to 30000MW.

            Here’s the link to rooftop solar power at the height of Summer, and note at 6PM, it is generating 500MW, and that’s 1.7% of the total power needed at that time.

            Summer, mid Summer, daylight savings in place.

            1.6%

            Tony.

            130

            • #
              Peter Fitzroy

              Thanks Tony. I’m thinking that we are talking past each other. I agree again that at peak use (late afternoon and evening) solar is useless. that was not my point

              50

            • #
              Just Thinkin'

              Tony,

              Don’t argue with an idiot…..

              He’ll drag you down to his level…..

              And kill you with experience…

              00

          • #
            Kinky Keith

            Read Tonys comment again.

            Why are you going on about 6pm?

            Here in winter right now there would be no effective Sunlight after 4:30 pm.

            KK

            60

      • #
        Kinky Keith

        What meaning does the term “fairer” have for the engineering problem of providing cheap reliable electricity?

        KK

        70

  • #
    StephenP

    Recently the head of the UK National Grid said in an interview on the BBC that we would have to get used to having electricity ‘when it is available’.
    To see where the UK has been getting it’s electricity you can see on Gridwatch.
    http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/
    For the past six weeks there has been next to no electricity from wind, and at present it is 2.2% of demand.
    The peak demand is 5 to 7 pm when people are home from work and cooking their evening meal, just when solar generation is declining.
    We are warned by the Fire Service that it is dangerous to run home appliances such as washing machines, tumble driers (the cause of the Grenfell flats disaster) and dishwashers when we are not present in the house or asleep, owing to fire risk, so when do we run them?
    (And we have not even started the switch over to EVs.)

    260

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      I suspect people who live in 3rd world countries with flaky infrastructure hear the same things.

      Given that the grid is necessary for the Defence of the Realm, arent people that effectively allow the grid to degrade, are they possibly allowing the UK to be easily invaded?

      The UK needs a Trump to start removing the globalist swamp creatures….

      160

      • #
        James

        If you wanted to invade Australia the first thing to do would be to destroy the inconnects. Remove Queensland coal power from the grid then you would have rolling black out throughout the populated areas,

        130

  • #

    Can’t we skip the wind and solar and just burn the money with the coal for the same result?

    300

    • #
      PeterS

      Well that’s pretty much what the rest of the world is doing. Over a thousand coal fired pwoer stations are being built or soon planned to be built so one has to ask the question why is Australia deliberately committing economic suicide by refusing to join the rush to coal and play catch-up? To top it off I’ve there are now reports that Australia will have to get rid of nearly three million beef cattle and eight million sheep if agriculture is made to reduce its emissions by a quarter. It would be far worse under ALP+Greens. I’m beginning to wonder if terrorists have infiltrated certain study groups and political parties, and are slowly but surely destroying our nation through legislation. The only other explanation as to why there’s a decisive push for cutting our emissions by both major parties is they have gone completely insane. In either case the people must stop voting for them, unless of course the people have also gone insane as well.

      283

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        There is a parasite that invades the brains of mice to make them suicidal….I suspect the demonic globalist Hand of Madness is running amok in this country.

        lets face it, our most popular show is Home and Away, hardly the stuff of true academia….

        121

        • #
          ЯΞ√ΩLUT↑☼N

          Dear God no..!

          Home and Away? I thought the mouth-breathers preferred Gogglebox, which requires no thinking as there’s no plot to follow. So going by that, our population of stunned mullets have a collective IQ in the double digits.

          They’ll be walking and chewing at the same time next. Scary.

          90

      • #
        StephenP

        Here is an interesting discussion on cattle farming aqnd methane:

        http://www.shapingtomorrowsworld.org/wahlquistMethane.html

        The comment by ‘Frank’ at the end seems rather negative. What will he end up eating? Lettuce, but lettuce has quite a high nitrate content.

        21

      • #
        Phil

        The global coal fleet continued to expand in 2017 but by nothing like what you’ve quoted. Mostly due to markets in Asia. However, falling global capacity additions and a higher level of retirements of existing plants meant net additions of coal-fired plants fell by over 50% in 2017, the IEA says. It’s gone from a net addition of 80GW (2015) to 60GW (2016) to 30GW (2017).

        10

    • #
      ivan

      No no, you can’t just burn the money it must be shoveled into the pockets of the politicians using a device called a directorship of a renewable energy company. That is the main reason that the politicians won’t see sense and cut off the subsidies – their back pockets would feel the pinch.

      250

  • #
    Bitter&twisted

    Thanks for this analysis, Jo.
    Just shows it is all about virtue signaling.
    What a complete waste of money.

    92

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      Virtue signalling – when I hear that I think of teenagers showing off to each other….i.e immature foolishness they eventually grow out of …unless of course you become wealthy, then its all about a new peeing competition of having the most exclusive expensive 4 wheeled toy…

      62

  • #
    Greg in NZ

    2% – the high point; 0.3% – the low point; 0.04% – atmospheric CO₂; 0.016% – anthropogenic CO₂ (?). We’re sold! (literally, down the river).

    Thanks TonyfromOz.

    182

    • #
      PeterPetrum

      Greg – is it not 3% of 0.04%. = 0.0012%?

      141

      • #
        Greg in NZ

        Thanks Peter, that’s why I put a question mark in there – thought our ‘contribution’ was ‘about’ 4% of 0.04% – still sweet f.a. Crikey, that means there’s even MORE zeros in there: we’re doooooomed…

        50

  • #
    Kinky Keith

    Thanks for this post Tony.

    The whole thing is a mess with the “must buy” tag attached to wind and solar.

    Having both hydro and gas balance out the wind and solar (doesn’t pricing contradict this?) is a good idea in that it means that conventional coal fired gets to just chug along.

    I would have thought that in a real market the coal origin price would have beaten out gas and hydro. Possibly something still bothers me about this.

    Maybe the coal supplied don’t tender to fill the gap because they are not flexible enough? I’m not sure what’s meant by “ramping up” the coal plants. Do they just tap in to the already spinning plants or do they have to run them harder?

    Whatever; it’s a way overpriced mess and is definitely Not a free market.

    KK

    70

    • #
      C. Paul Barreira

      Coal power just keeps going, while hydro and gas are volatile depending on wind generation.

      At least while there remains some water in the pertinent reservoirs. And when it’s gone out to sea at the Murray Mouth, what then?

      Not even the most croniest capitalist will have an answer. Perhaps authorities (sic) could try cloud seeding in the manner of the Chinese over the Tibetan plateau (see here and here, for example).

      Or perhaps we might ask Israel how to go about cloud-theft and defeat drought that way (see here, for example).

      50

  • #
    wal1957

    Most political parties, their expert advisors and party faithful, their ABC, and the MSM have all been complicit in the destruction of our energy supply chain. With a few notable exceptions, they are all hell bent on the ‘green revolution’.

    Out of curiosity I had a look at the ‘reneweconomy’ website that I have seen mentioned in previous posts here and on other sites I visit.

    Wow! Unbelievable! They truly are besotted with the unreliable fairy dust! They all apparently agree that renewables are the cheapest form of energy…that renewables are reliable, and that most power shortfalls/outages are caused by the “unreliability” of fossil fuel power stations! I cannot think of any other word that best describes these believers except for ‘ignorant’, in the true sense of the word.

    I wonder what will happen when/if Liddell closes down?
    Suppose a plant is down for scheduled maintenance…another plant goes down due to a fault…
    have we got enough in reserve to cover us in this scenario? Over to you Tony…

    180

    • #
      Hivemind

      “have we got enough in reserve”

      No, we don’t. The only reason that South Australia didn’t go dark again last summer was because it imported power from both Queensland and Tasmania. Lake Eucumbene is only 24% full, having been drained to keep power going. It won’t be much use once summer hits unless there is a lot of rainfall in the spring.

      Long story short: prepare for industry shutdowns and rolling blackouts; and not just in South Australia this time.

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        Bodge it an scarpa

        I read a comment here last week that Lake Eucumbene’s level will be replenished due to snow melt come the warmer Spring and Summer seasons.

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    • #
      Kinky Keith

      Wal,

      You mention the operative word “believe”.

      They don’t “know” or relate to the reality of the situation; they simply agree with each other that Renewables are now cheaper than those awful ” Fossil Fuels “.

      What this says about our Society is something else.

      Where are the people who, by pushing through the smokescreen, have seen the Holy Grail of costings, why are they silent.

      The Holy Grail of Costings.

      This is the actual, real cost of delivering from the production plant e.g. The Solar Field, to the front door of households and industrial and small business points of use with the full costs of plant construction, operation and eventual demolition costed over the life of the Plant.

      This information is not available, and I suspect that the changes to our electricity accounts relating to the Gold Plating of Poles and Wires was to serve two purposes;

      1. To increase profit rake off for the new “owners” of the poles and wires, and

      2. To deliberately cover up the actual costs of transforming and delivering the extremely variable and constantly fluctuating Renewables.

      Some bodies in the electricity industry are, No doubt, aware of this, but can’t speak.

      Many bodies in the media Should be aware of this, but don’t have either the skill or the authority or integrity to make it public.

      Discussion on the NEG is a disgusting Smokescreen.

      President Smirk, wins again.

      Amazing to think that for less than Two Million Dollars you can buy a country to play with and finally Rule and subjugate the fools who voted No to your Republic.

      Just goes to show that Dreams do come True.

      KK

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      el gordo

      ‘I wonder what will happen when/if Liddell closes down?’

      The American Vesey has nominated 2022 for closure, a centre right government would have the option of sending in the troops on grounds of national security.

      Alinta (HK shelf company) is prepared to pay $250 million for Liddell, but Vesey rejected their generous offer. Its nice to know Beijing is keen to keep us afloat, while the old fashion FU form of American capitalism has clearly passed its use by date.

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      PeterS

      I recall Tony posting some details concluding that we have enough reserve for now. If we didn’t we would be having many periods of blackouts by now. As to what will happen if and when Liddell closes depends depends on a number of factors. It will very likely cause power prices to rise. Going by what is happening all over much of the world where many nations are either building more coal fired and/or nuclear power stations, or bolstering their exiting plants (coal and/or nuclear) we are heading in the opposite direction. Either our two major parties are consorting to destroy our nation (unlikely) or they have lost all credibility in upholding the interests of the nation. Either way the voters need to reject both at the next election to stop the rot. Otherwise, we will have to learn the hard way, and it will be extremely painful.

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    • #

      wal1957, and PeterS above here,

      those so called ‘failures’ of fossil fuelled plants, and here the emphasis is on those large single coal fired units, I might suggest that more than three quarters of them, or more, would be scheduled outages for maintenance, and you can tell by looking at the load curves for power generation from those Units which do go offline. If it is a slow reduction to zero over three to four hours or more, then that is scheduled, as they wind back to zero.

      The ‘failures’ show power falling to zero instantaneously, and keep in mind that these are single Units, not the whole plant, with outputs as high as 720/750MW, so something like that could be a problem.

      However, and this also alludes to my comment above at 2.2.1, those people who do control the grid can and always do, handle something like that.

      I have mentioned it often, in both my Base Load Series, and also in this new Series, and shown exactly how something like this is handled.

      While there have been others, the comments I make in the Post at this link, (scroll down to my daily comment text) show, with images of what has happened from the load curves when there is a failure of this magnitude, and in virtually every case, no one knows it has actually even happened at all.

      Keep in mind here that wind power varies this much on a daily basis, so calling coal fired power unreliable is disingenuous to say the least.

      Tony.

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      • #

        A good example of this, wind power changing on a daily basis, and the way they refer to coal fired Units as ‘unreliable’ when one of them goes off line for any reason at all.

        Wind power was high on the Tuesday, just two days back now, at an average of 3150MW per hour across the whole day.

        While yesterday, Wednesday, that average was down to only 1440MW, a drop on the average of 1710MW per hour, just in one day.

        At the Peak power time yesterday, wind power was lower by 2300MW than it was for the day before.

        So, when one coal fired Unit of 720MW fails, it’s unreliable, and when wind is lower by 2300MW, they look the other way.

        Luckily, yesterday, two large Units, one at Eraring and the other at Yallourn W were back on line and delivering extra power for coal fired power, and what that meant was that the grid controllers did not need to fall back on the more costly natural gas fired power and hydro power to make up for that fall in wind power.

        Tony.

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        bobl

        For those interested fossil fuel generators have a “continuous” rating and an overload rating, the overload ratings are specified if I recall correctly for 30 minute and 5 minute overloads the 30 minute overload rating is about 110% while the five minute overload rating can be up to 130%. So, if you have 10 GW thermal generators and 1GW goes down the others just work at 111% and you have five minutes to get 100MW up somewhere else and 30 minutes to bring up another 900 MW. Renewables have no overload capacity, they deliver what they deliver and no more. This is why thermal plants can cover faults, the governors just ramp up the fuel to overload levels for the limited time they can be sustained safely.

        Power lines (Well EHV transmission lines really) are often managed the same way, they can sustain limited overloads, and their capacity is set by their temperature and time. In winter a transmission line has a higher capacity than in summer.

        So the “Management” of failures isn’t really that difficult when the infrastructure can handle overloads.

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    pat

    TonyfromOz posted an EchoNetDaily (Northern Rivers NSW) link re the following on the “Midweek Unthreaded” thread and expressed his disgust, but how on earth does it get coverage in something called Australian Mining Monthly?

    don’t know where the article goes after the excerpt I was able to capture, because it’s behind a paywall:

    25 Jul: AustralianMiningMonthly: Coal fired power stations prone to breakdown: report
    AUSTRALIA’s coal and gas power stations had almost 100 breakdowns recorded in the seven-month period to the end of June 2018, according to a report by the Climate Council
    New coal power stations are the most expensive form of new power generation, the End of the Line: Coal in Australia report states.
    “The estimated cost of building a coal power station with carbon capture and storage in Australia is over six times the equivalent cost of Australia’s largest wind farm,” it states.
    “Australia’s electricity sector is the nation’s largest source of greenhouse gas pollution, producing 33% of Australia’s greenhouse gas pollution levels in 2017.”…
    https://www.miningmonthly.com/power-remote-power/international-coal-news/1343142/coal-fired-power-stations-prone-to-breakdown-report

    24 Jul: Climate Council: END OF THE LINE: COAL IN AUSTRALIA
    By Andrew Stock and Greg Bourne
    DOWNLOAD THE REPORT…

    DOWNLOAD THE INFOGRAPHIC…
    https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/coal-in-australia/

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    • #
      Kinky Keith

      “with Carbon Capture and Storage”.

      To make coal seem expensive.

      CCS is the ultimate fantasy world plot to make us “believe” that cagw is real.

      There are only Negatives to CCS.

      The world needs more CO2, and that’s the Science.

      KK

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      Serp

      How does one arrive at an estimate for the cost of a carbon capture and storage facility when, since none exist, you cannot do a survey of operational plants to inform the guess?

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  • #
    pat

    21 authors are listed on the linked Nature website!

    23 Jul: ClimateChangeNews: Ecosystems across Australia are collapsing under climate change
    The Great Barrier Reef has become a notorious victim of climate change. But it is not the only Australian ecosystem on the brink of collapse
    By Rebecca Harris, David Bowman and Linda Beaumont
    (Rebecca Harris is a climate research fellow at the University of Tasmania. David Bowman is a professor of environmental change biology at the University of Tasmania. Linda Beaumont is a senior lecturer at Macquarie University)

    Our research, recently published in Nature Climate Change (LINK), describes a series of sudden and catastrophic ecosystem shifts that have occurred recently across Australia.
    These changes, caused by the combined stress of gradual climate change and extreme weather events, are overwhelming ecosystems’ natural resilience…

    Australia’s average temperature (both air and sea) has increased by about 1°C since the start of the 19th century. We are now experiencing longer, more frequent and more intense heatwaves, more extreme fire weather and longer fire seasons, changes to rainfall seasonality, and droughts that may be historically unusual.
    The interval between these events has also shortened, which means even ecosystems adapted to extremes and high natural variability are struggling.
    As climate change accelerates, the magnitude and frequency of extreme events is expected to continue increasing…

    We identified ecosystems across Australia that have recently experienced catastrophic changes, including…ETC
    http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/07/23/ecosystems-across-australia-collapsing-climate-change/

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    TdeF

    Thanks Tony. Excellent. The energy graph for June 21st is dynamite. What insanity!

    Still the biggest hidden ripoff of our electricity bills continues. We are even borrowing another $12Billion overseas just to build Turnbull’s dream in the sky. He is incredibly very free with our money and his crazy uncosted and absurd ideas and so makes Rudd seems like a miser. The RET is 4 Pink Batts schemes a year, 10x the Carbon tax.

    Still Malcolm does not know why electricity prices are the highest in the world. You would think it obligatory that he asks someone? Or is it just pleasing his friends? As for his laws to fix his problems, we should have a law against anyone spending $12billion on his personal whim.

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    pat

    24 Jul: ITV: Climate change fuelling heatwaves, experts warn
    Rising global temperatures caused by human activity are making the heatwaves gripping the northern hemisphere more likely, scientists warn…
    2 PETER STOTT TWEETS.

    STOTT: If you think of climate change as altering the odds of an event – with throwing a six being equivalent in the analogy to having a heatwave – it’s as though this year many places around the world have thrown a six unlike in 1976 when many places were colder than average…

    STOTT: The risk of heatwaves is increasingly rapidly due to greenhouse gas emissions. This summer we are seeing an expression of that increased risk.
    Professor Peter Stott, Met Office science fellow in attribution, likened the increased chances of a heatwave to rolling a dice and getting a six – but that climate change was weighting the dice.
    “What we’ve seen this summer is repeated throws throwing up a six in different parts of the world.
    “If you get a six over and over again you start to think ‘This is not normal, somebody has given me a loaded dice’.”…

    STOTT TWEET: This UK summer heatwave shares some similarities with 1976 including a strikingly similar pattern of Atlantic ocean temperatures. But globally 2018 is very different from 1976 with many other places also seeing heatwaves this year…

    He said the chances of the 2003 heatwave in Europe happening was more than doubled by climate change, and predictions by climate models that heatwaves would increase in frequency “are coming true before our eyes”.

    He said the “jury is out” on the extent to which climate change is affecting the jet stream, whose current pattern is keeping an area of high pressure to the west of Britain and causing the hot, dry weather.

    But he said: “It’s settled into a pattern here this summer, and what that means when it’s in this pattern, the Arctic temperatures are very much warmer, and temperatures are globally very much warmer, it’s fuelling these heatwaves.”…

    NASA GISS TWEET: June 2018 was was tied for the third warmest June in 138 years of modern record-keeping at +0.77°C above the 1951-1980 baseline average. Only June 2015 and 2016 (+0.80°C and +0.79°C) were warmer.

    Figures from Nasa show last month was tied as the third warmest June in 138 years of modern record-keeping at 0.77C above the 1951-1980 average, with only June 2015 and 2016 warmer.
    Professor Len Shaffrey, professor of climate science at the University of Reading, said: “Global temperatures are increasing due to climate change.
    “The global rise in temperatures means the probability that an extreme heatwave will occur is also increasing.”…

    He added: “The current hot and dry spell in the UK is partly due to a combination of North Atlantic Ocean temperatures, climate change and the weather.
    “Should weather patterns continue as they are then we might expect this summer will turn out to be as hot and dry as the extreme summer of 1976.”

    Dr Jeffrey Kargel, senior associate research scientist and glaciologist at the University of Arizona, said the upsurge in months-long extreme weather showed the climate is less stable than it was 30 years ago.
    “This profound instability seems to be the harshest effect of global climate change,” he said, warning of the costs of extreme weather, from wildfires to agricultural losses during droughts.
    http://www.itv.com/news/2018-07-24/climate-change-fuelling-heatwaves-experts-warn/

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    pat

    24 Jul: Independent: Why is it so hot in the UK and around the world?
    by Josh Gabbatiss
    However, as the heatwave continues the Met Office has issued a health warning urging people to stay out of the sun and a hosepipe ban has been brought into force.
    Worldwide(?), soaring temperatures are taking a far more serious toll…

    As the UK heads towards record temperatures and the world(?) continues to heat up, many have started to question what is behind this spate of hot weather, and how it fits into our understanding of climate change…

    Is climate change to blame?
    Luck plays a role in determining the weather and the current heatwave is no exception.
    “We have always had heatwaves and we always will. With the UK being in the mid latitudes we get a variety of different weather types, and the natural variability of our weather is the stuff of legend,” said Grahame Madge, a spokesman from the Met Office.
    “What we can say is that with a background of climate change, we know that the planet has warmed by around 1C since pre-industrial times, and we know that if you add that heat to the system it is very likely heatwaves will be more extreme.”
    Mr Madge said it was too soon to say for sure how big an impact man-made climate change has had, but Met Office scientists would soon be able to work it out exactly once they have collected the necessary data.

    Professor Len Shaffrey, a climate scientist at the University of Reading, added that one way to think about this link is in terms of probability.
    “Global temperatures are increasing due to climate change,” he said. “The global rise in temperatures means the probability that an extreme heatwave will occur is also increasing.”…

    “The current hot and dry spell in the UK is partly due a combination of North Atlantic Ocean temperatures, climate change and the weather,” said Professor Shaffrey…

    Meanwhile, far away in the tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures tend to swing between a warm phase known as El Nino and a cooler phase known as La Nina…
    Professor Shaffrey predicted that if current weather patterns continue the summer could turn out as hot and dry as the extreme heatwave that struck Britain in 1976…

    Heatwaves of similar magnitudes have struck Britain sporadically, but Professor Shaffrey said the biggest concern is that they are likely to be more common in the coming years.
    “Recent studies have assessed that climate change has increased the probability of extremes such as the 2017 European ‘Lucifer’ heatwave by a factor of at least four,” he said…

    While it is difficult to attribute these events to wider phenomena while they are still happening, experts predict that as in the UK climate change and related factors like a weakening jet stream are the likely culprits behind them.
    COMMENTS
    https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/uk-weather-heatwave-climate-change-global-warming-hot-temperature-met-office-a8461546.html

    iPlayer only works in UK. CarbonBrief: A segment exploring the causes of the heatwave was aired on Newsnight. The segment included interviews with Met Office chief Stephen Belcher and former government adviser Dr Chris Hope.

    24 Jul: BBC Newsnight: With Emily Maitlis.
    Government plans in the event of no deal on Brexit, soaring worldwide temperatures, Greece wildfires, and the future for the British high street
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b0bcq6lv/newsnight-24072018

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    pat

    24 Jul: Paul Homewood: Weather Warning For Snowflakes
    The Met Office has been justifiably blasted for its latest heatwave advice:
    LINK DAILY MAIL (A ZILLION PICS):
    HEADLINE: ‘Welcome to soft Britain!’: Met Office is lampooned for nanny state advice for Brits to STAY INDOORS for hours every day as the temperatures soar towards 100F
    By Connor Boyd and Zoie O’brien (5.2k COMMENTS)
    The Met Office has been lampooned after it issued nanny state advice warning Brits to stay indoors for days on end as a Mediterranean heatwave melts the country.
    There was an official amber advisory put out on Monday morning telling people not to leave the house for hours every day until Friday.

    But millions of Brits defied the warning and flocked to beaches and parks across the country before blasting the weather service for trying to spoil summer and promote a ‘soft Britain’.
    Many social media users tagged the Met Office on Twitter and asked how they were meant to get to work and pay the bills if they’re stuck inside all day…READ ALL
    https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2018/07/24/weather-warning-for-snowflakes/

    24 Jul: Xinhua: Recent persisting extreme weather result of climate change: WMO
    GENEVA, July 24 (Xinhua) — The recent episodes of extreme heat and precipitation are increasing as a result of climate change, which is compatible with the general long-term trend due to rising concentrations of greenhouse gases, the World Meteorological Organization said on Tuesday…

    Although it is not possible immediately to attribute individual heatwaves or extreme temperatures to human induced climate change, this is consistent with scientific scenarios which have found that the probability of the extreme event has been influenced by human activity, either directly or indirectly…

    According to the WMO’s statistics, of 131 studies published between 2011 and 2016 in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 65 percent found that the extreme event’s probability was significantly affected by anthropogenic activities. In the case of some extreme high temperatures, the probability increased by a factor of ten or more…

    Globally, June was the second warmest on record, and the year to date is the hottest La Nina year on record, the WMO said.
    http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-07/25/c_137345894.htm

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    pat

    ***what a complete disgrace these politicans are:

    25 Jul: Guardian: South Australia on track to meet 75% renewables target Liberals promised to scrap
    Liberal energy minister, who inherited policy criticised as a mix of ‘ideology and idiocy’, says he’ll ensure it does not come at too high a price
    by Adam Morton
    South Australia’s energy minister says the state is on track to have 75% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2025 – the target set by the former Labor premier Jay Weatherill and once rejected by his Liberal government.
    And Dan van Holst Pellekaan pledged to ensure it does not come at too high a price.

    The Liberal party was highly critical of Weatherill’s target when it was announced during this year’s South Australian election campaign, with the then state opposition leader, Steven Marshall, ***pledging to scrap it and the federal energy minister, Josh Frydenberg, likening the then premier to a ***clean energy addicted gambler “doubling down to chase his losses”. Prime minister Malcolm Turnbull had earlier described Weatherill’s renewable energy policy as ***“ideology and idiocy in equal measure”…

    The Australian Energy Market Operator has projected South Australia would have 73% renewable power by 2020/21 while consultants Green Energy Markets found it could reach 74% by 2025 without any additional policies being introduced.
    The South Australian energy and mining minister, Dan van Holst Pellekaan, said that was also his understanding. “That’s what the reports I’ve read are saying,” he said. “We need to harness it properly so consumers aren’t paying too high a price along the way.”…

    Speaking in his electorate office in Port Augusta, home to the state’s coal power until the last plant closed in 2016, and now with up to 13 clean energy at varying stages of development including the solar thermal project, van Holst Pellekaan said the shift from coal to more clean energy in South Australia had been messier than it needed to be, but was inevitable.
    “We must transition away from fossil fuels towards renewable energy,” he said. “There’s no doubt about it. And we need to do it sensibly.”…

    Van Holst Pellekaan said gas-fired electricity, a fossil fuel with lower emissions than coal, would have a slower decline, predicting it would take “a couple of decades”…

    Van Holst Pellekaan said his focus in energy was helping consumers, including by making tools available to help those who chose to juggle their electricity use to reduce their bills.
    “If a family says ‘I don’t care if it’s the most expensive electricity of the day, I’m going to use it between 5pm and 9pm because that’s what I want in my household’, OK, that’s their choice,” he said. “But if another family says, ‘I can skew things a bit earlier, or a bit later, and I can get a bit cheaper electricity’, good, that’s their choice.”…

    Van Holst Pellekaan, a National Basketball League player in the 1980s with the Hobart Devils, said South Australia’s energy policies were in line with recent advice from the Australia Energy Market Operator and the competition and consumer watchdog…
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jul/25/south-australia-to-hit-75-renewables-target-by-2025-liberal-energy-minister-says

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      Graeme No.3

      I have never understood the strange attraction of the solar thermal plant mooted for Pt. Augusta for politicians.
      Is it because it is very expensive?
      Has that tower with the hot top have some phthalic significance for them?
      Is it the virtue signalling without the slightest chance of it making any difference to the situation?

      Bear in mind its “capacity” is 130MW but that is only available while the sun is overhead on a cloudless day. If it were to run 24/7 as its believers claim, then it would struggle to supply 40MW continuously, and may as well shut down in the 3 months of winter. As serious generation it is a toy. And the cost of its output is estimated (rather optimistically) at $170 per MWh.
      The only way it could make money would be for it to run from 5 to 9 pm. in the peak period hoping that enough coal fired stations have shut down so it can sell its output.
      No, I think it is just that the State government (originally Labor but now Liberal) and the Federal Turnbull govt. have both thrown $100 million away, and they get a nice warm glow wasting such sums.

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        David Maddison

        I wonder how much gas it will use to keep the salt molten at night and during winter?

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        • #
          Graeme No.3

          David Maddison:
          The Aurora project claims that they won’t have a gas connection at all. That means that they would have to draw electricity for heating the molten salt from the grid.

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          • #
            David Maddison

            How sneaky of them. Without a gas connection they will be able to pretend that the facility will be “green”.

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            • #
              Graeme No.3

              Even those with a gas connection pretend they are “green” e.g. Ivanpah who used so much natural gas that they fell under the definition of a gas fired plant. No problem…the State Govt. changed the definition.

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          • #
            ivan

            Graeme, pulling power from the grid is a typical green dodge used to ensure the unreliable power generation doesn’t get any negative response from the sheeple. With the wind generators drawing power to prevent damage to the main shaft and bearings in low wind conditions most wind subsidy farms have a NEGATIVE out put which is never shown on the information released to the public.

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      • #
        David Maddison

        It is costing $650 million for a mere (if you’re luck) 40MW.

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    • #
      James Murphy

      Someone needs to tell Pellekaan that he PelleKaant, or Pelleshouldn’t.

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  • #
    pat

    found this on BBC Newsnight’s twitter page – watch all.
    begins with Joanna Haigh (professor of Atmospheric Physics at Imperial College London, and co-director of the Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment) and gets to Met Office chief Stephen Belcher and former government adviser Dr Chris Hope around the 4min mark til the end:

    25 Jul: Youtube: 11mins27secs: BBC Newsnight: Heatwave 2018 explained – BBC Newsnight
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3C10PaEk-8k&feature=youtu.be

    some fun on the Twitter page. seems they’d put up Belcher’s quote re “natural cycles”, without the remaining “but it’s superimposed on this background of global warming” part and the few who gather on this twitter page got upset…or not.

    25 Jul: TWEET: BBC Newsnight: We have now deleted this tweet but here is the full quote: “The heatwave that we’ve got is probably part of natural cycles in the weather but it’s superimposed on this background of global warming, and that’s what’s elevating our temperatures” LINK TO YOUTUBE NEWSNIGHT SEGMENT

    reply reckless monkey:
    We saved so others can appreciate how you tried to deceive people. Who knew Andrew Neil’s influence spread so far across BBC News output.
    The Foxification of BBC news and current affairs continues unabated.
    (NATURAL CYCLES QUOTE, ATTRIBUTED TO STEPHEN BELCHER ETC)…
    https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1022068795182080000

    Richard Black piped up on this one:

    25 Jul: TWEET: BBC Newsnight: Apologies – there was no intention to mislead with this headline. The chief scientist at the Met Office went on to say “but it’s superimposed on this background of global warming, and that’s what’s elevating our temperatures”. Watch full discussion here:…

    reply: Richard Black
    Thank you – sensible decision to put this to bed now…
    https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1022062831183769600

    and this is the latest Tweet posted re Newsnight!

    25 Jul: BBC Newsnight: “You have corrupted discourse for the entire world” – This is Emily Maitlis’ challenge to former White House Press Secretary, Sean Spicer, on ‘alternative facts’
    Watch the full interview
    (REPLIES TELL A STORY – IN MORE WAYS THAN ONE)
    https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1022076656519970817

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  • #
    StephenP

    Whatever happened to the Englishmen and the midday sun?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GcBr3rosvNQ

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  • #
    Just Thinkin'

    “Just what would we do if wind and solar were all we had? — Jo”

    We could find out….real easy. And Quickly…

    Just lock “OFF” the inter-connectors to South Australia….

    For a week should do it….

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    • #
      PeterS

      SA is being hypocritical of the highest order. At the moment SA is acting like a vocal vegetarian demanding everyone else to follow their lead but on average eats meat 6 days of the week. Such trickery and deceit is rife in Australia in all sorts of areas, government and business, not just in power generation. It’s the main reason why this nation is heading directly for a crash and burn scenario. The only way to avoid it is to elect the right sort of political party. That of course has zero chance of happening since the vast majority of the voters are still asleep, gullible, clueless, and/or don’t give a damn.

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      • #
        ЯΞ√ΩLUT↑☼N

        The only way to avoid it is to elect the right sort of political party.

        Nope. The proper way to do it is drag them out in the street and shoot them. Then never elect anyone ever again. They’ve been proving for generations they can’t be trusted.

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        • #
          PeterS

          I understand your sentiment. If the people can’t work up enough collective courage and smarts to reject both major parties at the next election they certainly will not come anywhere near to working up enough collective courage and smarts to do what you suggest.

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      Robdel

      Nothing will happen until the lights go out. Only then will the public come to their senses and understand that they have been had. Politicians and directors of energy companies better beware.

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      • #
        David Maddison

        That’s why we climate realists should just sit back and allow the nation to destroy itself. Only then will something possibly happen.

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      • #
        PeterS

        Pretty much my stance on the situation as well, especially given the lack of critical thinking exhibited by the people who keep supporting the two major parties instead of seeing a flood of support going to the ACP and ON. If this were the US I bet ACP+ON would be beating both the LNP and ALP+Greens combined on the matter of energy policies alone let alone a large list of other issues covered by the ACP or ON. Part of the reason they won’t is because Australians are far more left leaning than Americans. What Australia needs is a big kick on the backside to wake them up and realise both the LNP and ALP+Greens need to be demolished and rebuilt/replaced. Otherwise, we have to resign to an Australia moving more and more to the left and ultimately become a wreck.

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        • #
          el gordo

          ‘If an opposition leader loses even one seat in a by-election it suggests they haven’t got a shot at winning when it truly counts.’

          Cory Bernardi

          20

    • #
      shannon

      “Just lock “OFF” the inter-connectors to South Australia….”..

      This is seriously, beyond the joke …SA are total hypocrites..!!

      Australia’s “states” are basically acting like separate Countries ..when it comes to energy sources.

      Germany for years, boasted of their “Green Creditials”…when in actual fact were buying electricity across the border from France (nuclear) on one side of the Country…and importing “dirty coal” energy,on the other… from their neighbour.. the Czech.Republic…

      Its time…Countries/States/Politicians who believe in future “renewables”….

      Illustrate to Australians the ” proof in the pudding”…( that will be an interesting exercise)!

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  • #
    John Watt

    In the big picture, for urban and industrial loads, Tony is spot on. However at the edges of the supply grid solar (supplemented by diesel/battery) can do a cost effective job. Energy losses and distribution costs can outweigh the advantages of the economies of scale of distant generators. Our dilemma is that both sides of politics appear incapable of a rational discussion of the issue. Meanwhile they lead Oz into an energy drought.

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      el gordo

      Are we there yet?

      ‘Labor has condemned Malcolm Turnbull’s national energy guarantee, declaring it will ­stifle investment in renewables.’ Oz

      60

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    Robber

    Thanks Tony. Part 2 of this story is how that on/off wind impacts prices. And how little SA with just 7% of demand is the tail wagging the dog that is the rest ot the AEMO grid.
    For those days in June you quoted, daily prices in SA ranged from $106 to $192/Mwhr versus monthly average $106. And in Vic those prices ranged from $88 to $134 versus monthly average $94/MWhr. While in NSW and Qld on several of those days prices were above $100.
    While last week with good wind, SA prices were $78-87, and Vic $80-87.
    And what exacerbates the problem is the SA dependence on high priced gas to balance demand (also Vic since Hazelwood closure).

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  • #
    el gordo

    Fairfax is dead, hooray!

    30

    • #
      David Maddison

      The merger with Nine will make the Left more powerful.

      30

      • #
        el gordo

        I haven’t seen the fine print, worth a closer look.

        Hannam might get the sack and be replaced by an environment editor who understands the science.

        21

      • #
        el gordo

        TV news from 7 and 9 is centrist to centre-right, while 10 is slightly centre-left to capture the millennials.

        32

      • #
        el gordo

        ‘All eyes will be on Fairfax’s regional newsrooms to see whether the NXT deal results in a net good or harm.’ Guardian

        10

  • #
    David Maddison

    Imagine if you will, the insanity of taking an economically viable (in a free market) undepleted open cut coal mine and turning into a lake. This is exactly what is proposed for the Hazelwood coal mine as Australia falls deeper and deeper into a self imposed energy crisis.

    https://www.trfm.com.au/site/assets/files/24163/hazelwood-mine-as-lake.640×427.jpg

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      PeterS

      If the Greens had their way all coal mining would cease and be converted to something else that satisfies their desire to turn this nation into a Green friendly environment. Next would be Uranium and iron ore mining. Yet almost half of the population votes for the ALP+Greens alliance, and much of the rest votes for the LNP who have adopted in full the exact same desire to go with renewables. David we might as well resign to the fact this nation will have to learn it’s big lesson the most painful way imaginable before things are turned around. Still there is the hope what’s left of the old LNP will revolt and do the right thing for the nation’s future and dump Turnbull very soon, adopt all of Cory’s policies on energy, educate the people why, and go to the election to see if the people have woken up. If they are still asleep and prefer to go with ALP+Greens then so be it. I always felt the best way to learn the big lessons in life is often to go through some really hard times first.

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        el gordo

        ‘…educate the people …’

        Cory doesn’t have much time to get MSM attention, he could say something catchy like coral bleaching isn’t caused by global warming.

        Then he could back it up with support for Peter Ridd.

        30

    • #
      Serp

      It’s sabotaging the resource and should be prohibited.

      In a well run state such protection would be already in place.

      30

      • #
        PeterS

        I agree. They belong in prison for life, especially since some scam artists have received such punishment for perpetrating far less serious acts.

        20

  • #
    David Maddison

    Why don’t any of the politicians and sheeple seem to understand that there would be essentially no noticeable effect if wind and solar were disconnected from the grid, except power prices would drop to perhaps a third of present prices?

    Staggering amounts of money have been invested in “renewables” whose only genuine purpose is to harvest subsidies at the cost of electricity consumers for the enrichment of the owners of the subsidy farms.

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      PeterS

      Cory knows that but very few want to support him. Most mainstream politicians understand that the public as a whole would reject a party outright if they dare follow Cory’s policies on energy. It’s just the way I believe things are here. One way to find out if it’s true is for Turnbull to be rolled and the new leader come out with policies on energy that would make Cory probably rejoin the Liberal Party, and then take them to the next election to see if the people accepts or rejects them. If rejected we continue to go down into the abyss as now and the people will learn their lesson the hard way.

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        el gordo

        Okay, the Coalition ginger group get their new Hele and the Labor states reject the NEG, at this point Cory could rejoin the Liberals even with Malcolm as PM.

        10

    • #
      Phil

      From Westpac Weekly 20180730

      ” More significant to our inflation profile has been the shift in household energy bills. Up until this year, rising wholesale electricity and gas prices were driving household utilities costs higher. Then last year a policy shift by the Queensland Government and an unexpected surge in renewable power generation saw a collapse in wholesale electricity prices.

      This is a game changer. Until recently we had expected that rising electricity prices would remain a meaningful inflationary pulse at least through 2018 and possibly into 2019. The recent fall in wholesale prices, is likely to continue with the ongoing investment in renewables.

      10

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    pat

    25 Jul: WashingtonFreeBeacon: MSNBC’s Chris Hayes: Covering Climate Change Is a ‘Palpable Ratings Killer’
    by Andrew Kugle
    MSNBC anchor Chris Hayes tweeted Tuesday that covering stories about climate change is a “palpable ratings killer” for news shows.
    Hayes’s admission came when he shared a thread on Twitter about how climate change is making natural disasters like wildfires worse…

    Hayes responded to the criticism by saying climate change stories are a “palpable ratings killer.”
    “[A]lmost without exception. every single time we’ve covered it’s been a palpable ratings killer. so the incentives are not great,” Hayes responded…

    Numerous reporters and environmentalists responded to Hayes. Some expressed anger at the MSNBC host for worrying more about the bottom line than the “existential threat to human existence.”…

    Climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe claimed that she was invited to be a guest on Hayes’ show twice but both times her appearance was cancelled…
    In past elections, polls showed climate change was not a top priority for most voters.
    https://freebeacon.com/culture/msnbcs-chris-hayes-covering-climate-change-ratings-killer/

    FakeNewsMSM didn’t notice the following?

    Gallup survey: 36 issues mentioned, not one of them is climate change
    American Thinker (blog) – 22 Jul. 2018

    Gallup Poll: No One Believes ‘Climate Change’ Is America’s Biggest Problem
    by Thomas D. Williams, Ph.D.
    International-Breitbart News – 22 Jul. 2018
    The new poll seems to signal a major disconnect between certain progressive leaders and the American people at large…

    “Climate Change” Not Mentioned as a Leading Problem by Gallup Poll Respondents
    The New American – 23 Jul. 2018

    Good news: New Gallup poll shows Americans have wised up when it comes to climate change
    Twitchy – 22 Jul. 2018

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      pat

      theirABC obviously aren’t concerned whether or not CAGW is a “ratings killer” – because they are funded by the taxpayers.

      on jo’s “Weekend Unthreaded”, some were discussing ABC’s article re Mark Veigh/REST Super -

      24 Jul: ABC: Super fund REST being sued for not having a plan for climate change
      By environment, science and technology reporter Michael Slezak
      (ABC INCLUDES THREE GLAM PICS OF MARK VEIGH, TAKEN BY MICHAEL SLEZAK, IN THIS ARTICLE? WHY? WOULDN’T ONE BE SUFFICIENT?)
      http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-25/super-fund-rest-sued-for-not-doing-enough-on-climate-change/10029744

      Michael Slezak is the ABC’s national science, technology and environment reporter. He has been the environment reporter for The Guardian in Australia, the Australian correspondent for New Scientist magazine, and he edited the anthology Best Australian Science Writing 2017. His investigations into bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef won him the United Nations Association of Australia Media Award for Climate Reporting in 2017…

      these were ABC’s “Related Stories” on the Mark Veigh article page:

      ‘Afraid to have children’: Climate scientists reveal their fears for the future

      What convinced these once-sceptical scientists that climate change is real?

      plus the following:

      10 Apr: ABC: Climate change litigation rising with the seas as victims revert to ‘Plan B’
      ABC Radio Adelaide By Malcolm Sutton
      “Plan A was the hope governments would step up and social movements would be powerful enough to put pressure on governments,” University of Adelaide Law School Associate Professor Peter Burdon said.
      “But that hasn’t happened, so Plan B is to try the courts,” he said…

      Environmental Defenders Office Queensland chief executive officer Jo Bragg said the nation’s governments were taking a “huge risk” if they failed to implement measures that effectively protected or “cushioned Australian citizens from the reasonably foreseeable impacts of climate change”.
      “While we have not seen the breadth or number of civil suits in Australia that have been launched in other countries, government must not be complacent and assume such suits will not be run,” he said.
      “Certainly, over the last seven years there have been a number of legal challenges by community groups to government decision-making approval of major thermal coal mines in Queensland and New South Wales.”…

      But even if the evidence supporting anthropogenic climate change continues to increase, Professor Burdon said the primary success of court action will depend on a judge and whether or not they were the right person to understand the science.
      “While they strive to be neutral, the judges are still human beings with their own political views and ideas,” he said.
      “It’s about trying to get the perfect storm, get the right case with the right set of data with a judge who’s open to the argument.”
      http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-10/climate-change-litigation-rising-with-the-seas-plan-b/9627870

      THEN THESE WERE IN THE RIGHT COLUMN ON THE MARK VEIGH PAGE:

      The challenges of understanding impact of climate change in Antarctica

      Modelling predicts dire consequences for all wetlands within 80 years

      Heat waves getting hotter across Australia

      Humans driving climate change 170 times faster than natural forces

      Scientists frustrated as extreme weather becomes the new norm

      Impact of climate change on Indigenous communities

      Summer heat broke 205 records

      Climate change’s ‘canaries in the coal mine’

      Ski season ‘could shrink’

      Climate change ‘threatens financial system’

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        pat

        oops… should have been typing Mark McVeigh, not Veigh.

        who picked up the story?

        25 Jul: Tom Switzer: 5 things you need to know today
        #2: Super fund REST is being sued by a 23-year old customer for not having a plan for climate change. If Mark Mark McVeigh wins the case, it means that the risk of your super taking a hit to its bottom line because of climate change could soon be something your fund is legally obliged to act on. It’s the first time a superannuation fund has been sued for not doing enough on climate change…

        Switzer could have worded that differently. how about your super could take a hit if they bow to CAGW activists’ demands.

        Citywire (part-owned by Reuters) picked it up:

        25 Jul: Citywire Selector: Investor takes $37bn pension fund to court over ESG
        By Chris Sloley

        Financial Standard is part of The Rainmaker Group, an Australian financial services information company quotes REST.

        25 Jul: Financial Standard: Jamie Williamson: Member takes 50 billion industry fund to court
        https://www.financialstandard.com.au/news/member-takes-50-billion-industry-fund-to-court-124141896

        25 Jul: ClientEarth.org: Twenty-three year-old takes his pension fund to court over climate change
        Commenting on the case, ClientEarth’s Head of Climate Alice Garton said: “This case is being brought in Australia but the principles which underpin it are the same in the UK and we may well see similar cases in this country in the near future…

        David Barnden, principal lawyer at legal practice Environmental Justice Australia, said…ETC
        https://www.clientearth.org/twenty-three-year-old-takes-his-pension-fund-to-court-over-climate-change/

        EnvironmentalJustice.org: Josh Meadows: Member takes $50 billion industry fund to court

        Wikipedia: The New Daily…is funded by three Australian industry superannuation funds: Cbus, SuperHoldings, and Australian Super. The founding editor is Bruce Guthrie, who was formerly an editor of the Herald Sun and The Age:

        25 Jul: TheNewDaily: Revealed: Australia’s most climate-conscious super funds
        by James Fernyhough
        This week 23-year-old Queenslander Mark McVeigh made headlines when he revealed he was suing his super fund, REST…
        The New Daily looked in to the matter, and all in all, it was pretty good news. Australian super funds are, by and large, taking the issue seriously…

        In fact, according to international organisation the Asset Owners Disclosure Project, Australian super funds are the fifth best for addressing climate risk in the world, behind only Sweden, Norway, New Zealand and Finland…
        The best fund in the world was Aussie super fund Local Government Super, which scored a AAA rating.
        In total, 10 Aussie super funds were in the top 50 – including seven not-for-profit funds and three retail funds – showing in this area, every part of the industry appears to be pulling its weight.

        But while no Aussie funds had the ignominious X rating, a number did not do well. While super funds linked to CBA (Colonial First State), Westpac (BT Group) and NAB (MLC) all did pretty well, ANZ’s OnePath – one of the cheapest super funds in the country – came bottom, with a D rating.
        REST, the industry fund that is being sued, also only scored a D…

        And unlike most of the big industry funds and major banks, REST is not a member of the Investor Group on Climate Change (IGCC), a group of Australian and New Zealand institutional investors that focus on the issue of climate risk (see the full list of members here)…

        One of the remits of the Australian Council of Superannuation Investors (ACSI), a joint venture of a number of not-for-profit super funds, is to assess the climate risks of these assets, and to pressure companies to better deal with them.

        ACSI executive manager Ed John told The New Daily there were two internationally accepted types of climate risk: transition risk and physical risk.
        “Transition risk is the risks associated with moving to a low-carbon economy. It focuses on changes in policy, law, technology and market dynamics,” he said.
        “It might include carbon pricing, changes in the energy market, and regulations to mitigate climate change.”

        Physical risks, he said, relate to how climate change itself will affect actual assets. So it might be the effect of flooding on properties, or the effect of surging demand for electricity to deal with heatwaves on energy generators and networks.
        “ACSI’s work is about making sure climate risk and other factors can be priced in to investment decisions,” he said, adding there was “obviously more work to do” on this front.

        IGCC chief executive Emma Herd said a large range of companies faced climate risk, but she particularly singled out mining and energy companies.
        “Another might be electricity utilities. Are they investing in new energy sources, or are they relying on fossil fuels?”

        Ms Herd said the next round of super fund annual reports would contain much more detailed information, thanks to new disclosure standards…
        “In Australia, climate change is always reported as a political issue. That underestimates what’s going on in the real economy. The conversations that are taking place in boardrooms around Australia are a lot more sophisticated than the conversations that are taking place in Canberra.”…
        https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/superannuation/2018/07/25/revealed-best-super-funds-climate-risk/

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  • #
    Lance

    The Pols and Greenies often claim that batteries will save the day.

    Not if the battery chemistry isn’t changed. There isn’t enough Cobalt to sustain the projected growth in production of batteries.

    In other words, Li-Ion batteries are “resource limited” unless an alternative is found, and that quite fast.

    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05752-3

    I’m with Tony. Coal is King. At least in AU and US if the Pols will get out of the way. The Solar/Wind stuff is nonsense.

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    Mark M

    The cost of renewables in comparison fossil fuels is zero if the renewable energy can not stop the drought or flood.

    10

  • #
    Ruairi

    Wind-power would hardly make toast,
    With no chance of a two-hour roast,
    As coal meets each peak,
    Of demand through the week,
    The wind gives a trickle at most.

    90

  • #
    pat

    26 Jul: ABC: Nine’s Fairfax takeover is a last-ditch bid for survival, but it comes at a cost
    By Stephen Long
    (Stephen Long is an ABC business reporter and a former Fairfax Media journalist)
    In the era before the internet, Fairfax and Nine were the kings of their respective media spaces
    The “rivers of gold” from classified advertising flowed for Fairfax, and the substantial revenues they created cross-subsidised well-resourced newspapers and journalism.
    Nine enjoyed its own golden age of advertising revenue during the long era when free-to-air broadcasting was a primary source of news, sport and entertainment, while web-based alternatives such as Netflix did not exist…

    Now much of the revenue flows offshore, to Google and Facebook, which increasingly dominate the advertising market…

    This raises serious issues for the future of journalism.
    Companies such as Fairfax and Nine, which report the news and investigate issues, are losing the revenues that subsidise this endeavour…

    The Fairfax culture has long prided itself on editorial independence…
    Nine, which will have a 51 per cent share of the merged entity and is effectively taking over Fairfax, does not share that tradition, although chief executive Hugh Marks has indicated the Nine board would be happy to adopt the charter.
    Across the world, as traditional media companies fight to survive, many fine principles of diversity and independence once held dear in media policy are being jettisoned or compromised.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-26/fairfax-nine-merger-comes-at-a-cost/10039040

    and theirABC will just roll on and on at the expense of the taxpayers.

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  • #
    • #
      PeterS

      As we all know Turnbull and Frydenberg disagree completely. They love those giant fans and can’t have enough of them. It’s up to the voters to voice their opinion as to whether Australia should continue the current path or do something to make it loud and clear that we had enough and we need the RET schemes and the like dismantled immediately after the election. There are only three ways to go from here. One, Turnbull is replaced with a new leader who commits to such actions, much like what Abbott did when he promised to remove the Carbon tax. Two, failing that the ACP+ON hold the balance of power and demand such action as per the wishes of the people to carry out such actions. Three, nothing changes and either LNP or ALP+Greens win and we suffer the crash and burn scenario. I can’t wait for the next election to find out which direction voters pick.

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        el gordo

        Give the ginger group time, here is Andrew Gee.

        ‘The Nationals have put to the Government a proposal to finance reliable base load power. It is currently being considered. A recent ACCC report supported what I (and others) have been saying for quite sometime: prices are too high, consumers are being gouged and reliable base load power needs to be guaranteed by the government.’

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      • #
        el gordo

        A little more from Andrew Gee who has drawn a clear line in the sand.

        ‘The ball is now in the government’s court to implement the ACCC’s recommendations. I’m going to find it very difficult to support the National Energy Guarantee (NEG) if this doesn’t happen.’

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      • #
        el gordo

        ‘The Queensland government warns it may block the Turnbull government’s signature energy plan, saying that it won’t sign any deal that undermines the state’s ambitious renewable energy target.

        ‘Anthony Lynham, the state’s energy minister, told Fairfax Media that backing for the National Energy Guarantee hinges on whether Queensland’s target of making 50 per cent of its electricity renewable by 2030 will not be affected.’

        SMH

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    pat

    behind paywall:

    Has Australian energy policy been hijacked by anti-coal campaigners?
    Daily Telegraph-16 hours ago
    However, many feel that energy policy in this country has been hijacked by anti-coal campaigners who are trying to bully the rest of us to do without a central part of the solution…

    behind paywall:

    Hundreds of mining coal jobs secured for region
    Townsville Bulletin-17 minutes ago

    26 Jul: Australian Mining: Peabody extends mine life at North Goonyella coking coal mine
    by Ewen Hosie
    Peabody’s North Goonyella underground coking coal mine is set to have its mine life extended to 2026.
    The extension comes with the introduction of a new mining area, North Goonyella South. It will secure the jobs of more than 230 workers, many of which live locally.
    Peabody’s Australian president George Schuller commented that Australia remains “the go-to place for hard coking coal across the globe”…

    Peabody also has longstanding relationships with Indian steelmakers, whose demand for metallurgical coal has increased by 22 per cent over the last 12 months. India is set to overtake China as the world’s largest importer by 2020.
    Queensland Resources Council chief executive Ian Macfarlane said, “The Indian steel story will continue to grow along with its urbanisation story.”
    Recently, Peabody commenced its North Goonyella longwall, which is expected to complete in the third quarter this year…
    https://www.australianmining.com.au/news/peabody-extends-north-goonyella-coal-mine-life/

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    pat

    25 Jul: Bloomberg: India Asks Private Power Plants To Import Coal To Tackle Crunch
    by Bhanvi Arora
    India asked private power producers that don’t have long-term fuel supply pacts to import coal as its shortage could worsen in August-end, a senior government official told BloombergQuint requesting anonymity.
    Private generation companies without coal linkages have to review requirements and see if they need to import, the official said…

    ***Wind and hydro power generation would fall at the end of August and increase demand from coal-fired plants, according to the official…

    India’s top 12 major ports reported a 19.32 percent rise in inbound shipments of thermal coal at 28.28 million tonnes in April-June, PTI had reported citing the latest report from Indian Ports Association…
    https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/2018/07/25/india-asks-private-power-plants-to-import-coal-to-tackle-crunch

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    Amber

    Really very sad how the general public has been purposely mislead , misinformed and ripped off
    by government and corporate welfare crooks .

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    Rod Stuart

    when power is required the most, wind and solar are missing almost entirely
    An analogy: “When the economy is a the verge of going over a cliff, reason and logic are missing almost entirely”.

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    pat

    when Reuters is reporting something positive on coal, or some other topic not favoured by the CAGW zealots, they often seem to publish on Reuters Africa, which might explain why we don’t get such pieces carried in our own FakeNewsMSM:

    26 Jul: Reuters Africa: COLUMN – India coal imports surge in July, despite advancing prices
    By Clyde Russell
    (The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)
    LAUNCESTON, Australia, July 26 (Reuters) – India’s coal imports appear to have surged in July and may even come close to a monthly record as it grapples with domestic transport woes and rising demand for electricity.
    Coal imports are on track to reach 19.7 million tonnes in July, according to vessel-tracking and port data compiled by Thomson Reuters Supply Chain and Commodity Forecasts…
    The data was filtered to include only cargoes that have already unloaded, are awaiting or currently discharging, or are expected to arrive before the end of the month…

    The rising imports come even as coal prices surge on the back of strong demand from China, the world’s biggest importer, and other Asian countries including Japan.
    Imports for the first seven months of the year are likely to be around 115.1 million tonnes, up 9 percent from the same period a year earlier, according to the vessel-tracking data…

    Prices for thermal coal used in power generation have scaled multi-year peaks so far in 2018, with the Australian benchmark weekly Newcastle Index hitting $122.57 in the week to July 22, the highest since September 2011 and up 18 percent since the end of last year.
    However, Australia isn’t a major supplier of thermal coal to India, with the bulk of its exports to the South Asian nation being coking coal.
    India’s main supplier of thermal coal is Indonesia, where prices have also been rising, but perhaps not quite so dramatically as for the higher-quality Australian grades…

    …coal shipments from Australia to India have been moving sharply higher, with 5.1 million tonnes likely to have arrived in July – the strongest month since shipping data started in 2015.
    Of course, the bulk of this will still be coking coal used to make steel, but looking at the breakdown of the vessels and it appears at least some cargoes were thermal coal.
    The other winner is India’s third-largest supplier, South Africa, with imports rising to around 4 million tonnes in July, also a record…

    It also seems likely that coal imports may remain elevated for at least the coming months, given the difficulties being experienced by state-controlled producer Coal India in securing rail transportation…
    https://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL4N1UM2A5

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    pat

    25 Jul: HellenicShippingNews: Reuters: India’s thermal coal imports rise over 14 pct in Q2 – trader
    by Sudarshan Varadhan
    India’s thermal coal imports rose by more than 14 percent in the second quarter of 2018 from a year earlier, putting the energy-hungry nation on track for a rise in annual imports after two straight years of decline.
    Indian imports rose to 43.4 million tonnes during the three months ended June 30, up from 37.9 million a year ago, according to data from American Fuels & Natural Resources, a Dubai-based trader of coal from the United States which tracks shipments around the region.

    That is India’s highest quarterly import tally in two years, which along with higher consumption in China has been a major driver behind the strong recovery seen in benchmark Australian coal prices this year.
    The strong purchases take India’s first-half imports to 81.9 million tonnes, up 13 percent from the 72.3 million tonnes imported over the same period in 2017…
    Vasudev Pamnani, a senior coal trader from American Fuels, told Reuters: “Any additional demand will be addressed by imports, and India will support pricing.”

    Indonesia accounted for over three-fifths of total supplies during the latest quarter, while South Africa accounted for over a fifth, according to vessel arrival data tracked by American Fuels.
    U.S. coal made up about 9 percent, the data showed.
    Adani Enterprises, India’s largest coal trader, accounted for over 14 percent of all imports, purchasing about 6.23 million tonnes during the period, the data showed…
    The Tata Group imported 2.16 million tonnes of coal, while Swiss Singapore, part of the Aditya Birla Group, shipped in 2.21 million tonnes and JSW Group brought in 2.14 million tonnes…
    https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/indias-thermal-coal-imports-rise-over-14-pct-in-q2-trader/

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    pat

    25 Jul: MontelNews: German grid plans unprepared for rapid coal exit – study
    by Nathan Witkop, Berlin
    German plans to expand power line networks are ill-suited to the possibility of a rapid coal phaseout, the country’s Institute for Applied Ecology (Öko Institut) said in a study on Wednesday.
    Expedited coal plant closures – something Berlin is considering – implied significantly different network requirements in the next decade compared to scenarios prepared by the BNA network regulator in conjunction with Transmission System Operators (TSOs), according to the study.

    The study looked at an official scenario for 2024 in which brown coal was slated to still provide 15 GW of generation capacity and hard coal 26 GW.
    The authors then investigated the implications of reducing this capacity by roughly half to 6 GW and 14 GW respectively. The reductions implied a swifter rollout of renewable energy together with another 18 GW of gas-fired units.

    Changes of this magnitude would make some of Germany’s present network projects redundant – such as connections between Saxony and Bavaria – while shifting congestion elsewhere, like the north of the country.
    “The doesn’t mean the scenario will lead to less network development, rather it suggest we may need a very different network expansion.”

    The German energy sector could save up to 80m tonnes of carbon annually by 2024 through such sharper coal plant closures, but present network plans would also ensure a sharp rise in congestion and waste of clean power, the study said.
    Nearly a quarter, or 18 TWh, of the additional 76 TWh of renewable energy generated would need to be curtailed.
    “This implies the network is not robust enough to support a ‘swift coal exit’ scenario well,” the authors said.
    Germany has struggled to roll out the grids it needs to keep pace with its expansion of renewable energy, which met 36% of German power demand last year…
    The Öko Institute urged lawmakers to accommodate the implications of coal plant closures in the country’s planning process.
    https://www.montelnews.com/en/story/german-grid-plans-unprepared-for-rapid-coal-exit–study/920582

    25 Jul: CleanEnergyWire: dpa: Save CO2 in transport, not coal – state premier / Protests in Hesse
    Saxony-Anhalt state premier warns against expedited coal exit
    Instead of pushing for a coal phase-out, Germany should reduce its carbon emissions from transport and housing, Saxony-Anhalt State Premier Reiner Haseloff said, according to a dpa article carried by Berliner Morgenpost. An observer in the recently formed coal-exit commission, Haseloff opposes a fast coal phase-out, pointing to the thousands of jobs that depend on the coal industry. Saxony-Anhalt is a major lignite producer…

    Read the article in German here (LINK)
    https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/save-co2-transport-not-coal-state-premier-protests-hesse

    partial google translation:

    Magdeburg. From the point of view of Saxony-Anhalt’s Prime Minister Reiner Haseloff, Germany should rather save carbon dioxide (CO2) in transport and housing than quickly get out of brown coal. With subsidies could be saved with significantly less money significantly more greenhouse gas, said the CDU politician on Tuesday in Magdeburg…

    The Saxony-Anhalt head of state and his East German counterparts repeatedly warned against an early exit date. If a move away from the domestic raw material was wanted, then the coal commission must submit by the end of the year also a clear “accompanying scenario”, how the removal of thousands of jobs in the coal regions should be compensated – and who pays for it…

    For initial planning and projects Saxony-Anhalt’s head of government demanded for this year an immediate program in the amount of 100 million euros from the federal government. This was necessary in order to plan better infrastructure connections in the affected areas and to encourage investments for new jobs in related industries. “I can not turn a dredge driver into a software engineer,” said Haseloff. The preparation of structural change takes time, ideas – and money. Similarly, Brandenburg’s Prime Minister Dietmar Woidke (SPD) had previously expressed.

    Around 8,000 jobs were related to lignite mining in Saxony-Anhalt, Haseloff predicted. That’s half of all jobs in the country’s influential chemical industry…
    So far, the federal government plans to distribute 1.5 billion euros to all brown coal regions. The Lausitzer district in Saxony and Brandenburg and the Rheinische Revier in North Rhine-Westphalia are larger than the Central German…
    Much bigger effects in less time could bring grants for good thermal insulation or low-emission cars, suggested Haseloff…

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    pat

    24 Jul: Yahoo: Is This The Next Coal Megaproject?
    By Viktor Katona for Oilprice.com
    Some 80km from the Chinese border, the tiny Russian village of Yerkovtsy might provide the setting for a new Russo-Chinese megaproject…
    The $10 billion coal-fuelled 4 GW Yerkovetskaya power plant, a joint project of Inter RAO and the State Grid Corporation of China, is back on the agenda, with high-profile state-owned financial institutions ready to back the project. Yet will it be enough?

    If built, the Yerkovetskaya power plant will become Russia’s second-largest, only the monstrous 5.6 GW Surgut (which runs on the region’s plentiful associated petroleum gas) is bigger. As for solid fuel thermal power plant, the Yerkovetskaya plant would become Russia’s leading one, overtaking the 3.8 GW Reftinskaya power plant. With an annual electricity generation of 20-30 TWh, the thermal power plant in and of itself would create more energy than some countries (Iceland, Slovenia or Croatia) in total…

    For the needs of the power plant, the shareholders plan to source the required amounts of coal from the adjacent Yerkovetsky coal mine (3P reserves amounting to 1.08 billion tons of coal with a current level of extraction barely reaching 3.5 million tons)…
    https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/next-coal-megaproject-200000451.html

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    pat

    25 Jul: AfricaOil&Power: South Africa: Eskom gets $2.5bn loan from China Development Bank
    South African power utility Eskom will get a $2.5 billion loan from the China Development Bank. The loan, backed by the government, will be used for the construction of the Kusile power station in the Mpumalanga province of South Africa.

    The Kusile power station project is Eskom’s new coal-fired power plant to be comprised of six units, with a total capacity of 4,800 MW. Once completed, this will be the fourth largest coal fired power station in the world…

    Recently a number of Eskom power stations have experienced coal shortages that have resulted in a series of power cuts in the Gauteng and Free State provinces.
    https://africaoilandpower.com/2018/07/25/south-africa-eskom-gets-2-5bn-loan-from-china-development-bank/

    behind paywall:

    North Queensland is the economic engine room of the state
    The Mercury – 18 hours ago
    Queensland’s resource industries principally located in the Northern and Central regions of Queensland, contribute about $56 billion to the state economy. Coal, silver, lead, zinc, copper and rare earths are all mined in North and …
    It is from mining royalties, agricultural earnings and tourism dollars that the State Government is able to build highways, tunnels, sports arenas, schools and hospitals in Brisbane and other parts of the southeast…

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  • #
    Louis Hissink

    Turning off solar at 6PM ?

    nnnnnngggggg????

    :-)

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