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Electricity prices fell for forty years in Australia, then renewables came…

Electricity prices declined for forty years. Obviously that had to stop.

Here’s is the last 65 years of Australian electricity prices — indexed and adjusted for inflation. During the coal boom, Australian electricity prices declined decade after decade.  As renewables and national energy bureaucracies grew, so did the price of electricity. Must be a coincidence…

Today all the hard-won masterful efficiency gains of the fifties, sixties and seventies have effectively been reversed in full.

Indexed Real Consumer Electricity Prices, 1955-2017. Graph.

Indexed Real Consumer Electricity Prices, Australia, 1955-2017.

For most of the 20th Century the Australian grid was hotch potch of separate state grids and mini grids. (South Australia was only connected in 1990). In 1998 the NEM (National Energy Market) began, a feat that finally made bad management possible on a large scale. Though after decades of efficiency gains, Australians would have to wait years to see new higher “world leading” prices. For the first years of the NEM prices stayed around $30/MWh.

But sooner or later  a national system is a sitting duck for one small mind to come along and truly muck things up.

Please spread this graph far and wide.

Thanks to a Dr Michael Crawford who did the original, excellent graph.

For decades the power price fell,
In Australia, where the system worked well,
But renewable power,
For each kilowatt hour,
Shot up prices and rang its death knell.

–Ruairi

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171 comments to Electricity prices fell for forty years in Australia, then renewables came…

  • #
    Alfred

    Brilliant. Thank you!

    280

    • #
      Phillip Bratby

      I’m certain a similar shape of graph would apply in the UK, with an uptick starting after the various renewable energy subsidy schemes (mainly the Renewable Obligation scheme in 2002 and the Feed-in-Tariff scheme in 2010) and mandated amounts of renewable energy were introduced. I wonder if anybody has compiled a graph for the UK?

      61

    • #
      Sam Pyeatte

      What is so funny about this situation is there are so few people in Australia that they could never have a pollution problem relative to the size of the continent.

      50

  • #
    Leonard Lane

    Rebewables attacking the public, industry, and the Nation of Australia.
    What could go wrong?

    350

    • #
      Extreme Hiatus

      No, no. It is all for our own good.

      Lest we forget:

      “Of course – all those foolish people worrying about what they’d do if the aging power stations weren’t replaced should’ve been worrying about too much cheap, plentiful energy. We all know how dangerous that can be, right? Holdren lists some of these dangers as:

      “. . . diverting financial resources from compelling social needs, making hasty commitments to unproved technologies, and generating environmental and social costs that harm human welfare more than the extra energy improves it.”

      http://www.climatedepot.com/2011/10/14/1975-Holdren-Says-Real-Threat-to-USA-Is-Cheap-Energy-The-USis-threatened-far-more-by-the-hazards-of-too-much-energy-too-soon-than-by-the-hazards-of-too-little-energy-too-late/

      Why can’t we see that cheap reliable energy is really bad? Obviously another reason for us serfs to stop thinking and let the experts decide. And Holdren must be a real super-duper expert because he was Obama’s science advisor and, as everyone knows, Obama was a super-duper genius -even more brilliant than Justin Trudeau.

      So maybe its best if this graph is kept hidden. It may cause people to vote incorrectly.

      170

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        It seems to me that Holdrens comments smacks more of a “i know better than you” nanny who thinks “the children” might get into trouble if useful things like building blocks are left lying around…substitute mankind for children and building blocks for advanced human improving tech, and youre close.

        https://principia-scientific.org/science-meets-un-agenda-21-eugenics-and-population-control/

        30

      • #
        Environment Skeptic

        “Why can’t we see that cheap reliable energy is really bad?”

        Simply because “cheap” does not describe the ultra low interest rates available from the privately owned financial industry which is the true source of so called “tax payer dollars” and that comes from nothing more than a credit rating and the bits of australia/etc that are still owned by the people of the relevant geographical location that can be used as collateral.. So much for the notion of “tax payer funded”…..

        “. . . diverting financial resources from compelling social needs, making hasty commitments to unproved technologies”

        Grammatic change: ….Diverting financial IOU’s (IOY’s Souverign Bonds (IOU’s/IOY’s and a possible loss of credit rating) from compelling privately run social/debtor needs….making hasty finacial comittments with experienced creditors/loan sharks with the ultra unique power enabling them to print money out of thin air to purchase unproved technologies without any change to the credit rating designated by debt rating agencies…..so far….

        30

        • #
          Environment Skeptic

          *romantic old fashioned notion of “tax payer dollars”

          10

        • #
          Kinky Keith

          A very good summary of modern political/banking:

          formerly known as theft.

          KK

          30

        • #
          sophocles

          Simply because “cheap” does not describe the ultra low interest rates available from the privately owned financial industry

          You wish. Governments can borrow more cheaply than any private borrower because they have a superior credit rating. That’s why government ownership of national services had to go, so the governments had to pay higher rates of interest because of an inferior asset register.

          Any government can still access funds at lower rates than the private sector by issuing interest bearing bonds. To attract funds, they will have to offer competitive rates of interest unless they offer special deals such as discounted tax rates which will make bond purchases more attractive. Governments have the whip hand, don’t ever forget it.

          20

      • #
        sophocles

        The RM (Renewables Mess) was predictable from the day, a few years ago, the World Bank published on its web site that it would not lend for any coal projects.

        There’s the small mind! The ultra-stupid.

        Not only, but also, they were the ones who pushed for the privatization of everything, so that it was broken and fragmented into unmanagable components. You guys ‘n gals have been done, right royally.

        The nineteenth century economists knew what a natural monopoly was and that it had to be publicly owned. It didn’t need to be publicly run—that could be cost-effectively put out to tender every three to five years, but it’s ownership had to be public. They certainly didn’t count on an organization with the mindset and mandate of the World Bank.

        I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: nationalize it all. Then you will be able to run it properly.

        NZ has to do the same before we’re toast, too. Our pollies are BAI’s (Born Again Idiots) who live in wet paper bags. Every now and then they do something almost right but it’s more of an accident than the result of intelligent deliberation.

        I notice Germany is only inches away from turning to toast. Watch that space.

        You lot have had something which was sensible and functionable torn out from under you with a lot of feel-good rhetoric which few saw through. Once you lost control of it, it has been wrecked, right in front of your eyes. You now have to do the hard yards to fix it. I don’t envy you at all. It took 50 years to build, 50-100 months to wreck and now you have to rebuild. See you in another 50 years. Until then, may your god(s) be with you. You need them …

        100

  • #
    Dennis

    Crony capitalism hand in hand with politicians hand in hand with new world order forces.

    220

    • #

      It’s not crony capitalism, it’s profitable socialism.

      302

      • #
        el gordo

        Selling off the poles and wires was the root cause of the problem, which is why Luke Foley (Opposition leader in NSW) is running on a buy back platform or something akin to it.

        56

        • #
          Dennis

          It was the NSW Labor Government, Premier Keneally (I’m nobody’s girl), that carried out a fire sale to beat a state election date and sold half of the government owned asset holding companies.

          Valuation range $12 billion to $15 billion and sold for $5.9 billion, a loss of at least $6.1 billion for NSW taxpayers.

          The state government owned private companies replaced the union riddled Electricity Commission and was the initiative of the Premier Greiner led Coalition Government. The Carr Labor Government re-arranged management with their own people (how unusual for Union Labor, not) and the parties began. Management not supervised closely etc. But the state government decided that those private companies could borrow money and pay extra “dividends” to the state government with the debt hidden off the state budget accounted for in private company records not made public.

          After the sale the debts were retired and from $5.9 billion only $800 thousand remained in taxpayer’s government coffers.

          The exploitation of the energy market is a lot more than meets the casual observer’s eyes.

          120

          • #
            Dennis

            I should have included that Luke Foley also promises to address the shortage of public schools in NSW if elected to govern.

            No mention that Labor in government sold many public school properties, most that had received federal Labor Building The Education Revolution (USSR brand manual) taxpayer funding, and now there is a land shortage.

            The present Coalition Government is doing what can be done including designing high-rise building schools.

            90

          • #
            yarpos

            Funny how the biggest losers in NSW Labor get invited into the Federal sphere. Carr and Keneally (what great contributions those two made to NSW) both become Feds without troubling the voters.

            101

          • #
            Kinky Keith

            Dennis, that’s all very interesting.

            Huge amounts of money moving from place to place, almost like musical chairs.

            Do not trust governments.

            KK

            70

            • #
              Dennis

              It is also interesting to look at who the shareholders of the former government owned assets are.

              An example I posted here a week ago are Keshik Capital Pte registered in Singapore and Infigen Wind Resources Australia. How the investment in the wind farm was looking rather sad until a relative of a major shareholder in Keshik convinced the government he leads to make certain changes following which the share value increased.

              Have a look at union owned and controlled industry superannuation fund investments in so called renewable energy.

              Look at former politicians invested like a former Liberal Opposition Leader.

              The people creating wealth for themselves via “climate change” is disgraceful given the basis for the investments.

              I believe that an investigative journalist could write a story about this that would shock even now apathetic voters.

              70

          • #
            sophocles

            Ah, at last someone is starting to see some light! Keep at it, Dennis.

            30

        • #
          sophocles

          Good on him. In New Zealand, we used to have regional power boards which owned the poles and wires. The boards were elected by the people of the region they served.

          Why would that be? It was because electricity was a service applied to the land in the region. It was a service which contributed a significant part of the value a land-owner’s property acquired. Services applied to land contribute most of the so-called capital gain of properties, especially urban ones. Electricity supply was not part of a council’s brief but it was still controlled by the property owners of the area it served. It worked very well … until the World Bank got involved.

          The major chunk of value is from the road network, especially the road which provides the free (as in unencumbered, 24/7 access to the property). Every few years, government makes noises about privatizing roads but so far representations against it have failed. Roads are publicly owned to prevent land-owners from banding together and closing off access to another land-owner and forcing that off their property at a low price. The pollies need a regular reminder about the excesses of history in England to cool their ardour.

          Privatization of the public domain can be economically positively dangerous. Australia is now learning the lesson.

          90

          • #
            Dennis

            We are paying for changes to water supplies too.

            20

            • #
              yarpos

              Was speaking to a project manager friend the other day, he said the water companies are looking at going down the smart meter path.

              20

            • #
              sophocles

              So are we in NZ. Water supply has been `corporatized’ and is now nearly 3 times as expensive as it was. We have to ‘pay for the pipes’ now. We did anyway but for some reason we have to pay for them in advance, now.

              20

              • #
                yarpos

                I provide my own water supply but I imagine they will find a way to extract some revenue from me eventually.

                Wouldnt really take to big a nudge for us to off grid. We all ready do water, sewage, can partially offset power and have a generator. I imagine we are no that unusual amongst regional people not living a mini suburban life in a major centre.

                20

      • #
        Lionell Griffith

        It is not profit. It is theft covered by a legalized fiction. All based upon the principle that, when the government does something,it is good. When a private individual does something, it is evil. The consequences of either class of actions is held to be irrelevant. The morality of something is based upon who and not what.

        200

        • #

          That dead hand of guvuhmint seeking to curtail the independent
          energy of its people. Like China at the beginning of the Ming
          period, merchants trading in the Indian Ocean, development of
          compass, a fleet bigger than the Spanish Amada… 3rd Emperor
          says ‘no,’ steered by officials, bans ship building and trade.
          No industrial Revolution in China. Dead hand of guvuhmint in
          the West doing its best to unmake ours.

          110

      • #
        el gordo

        ‘The new energy policy from the Greens, to be released as the party gears up to contest the Batman byelection in Melbourne’s northern suburbs after the resignation of Labor’s David Feeney on Thursday, would seek to transition privately owned transmission infrastructure in three states, including Victoria, back to public ownership.’

        Guardian.

        40

        • #
          sophocles

          The new energy policy from the Greens, … would seek to transition privately owned transmission infrastructure in three states, including Victoria, back to public ownership.’

          From your Greens? Who there knows their history, has an economic clue-bat and some brains?

          I could wish NZ’s Greens had a clue in there somewhere … sigh, but that’s wishful thinking …

          40

  • #
    Ruairi

    For decades the power price fell,
    In Australia, where the system worked well,
    But renewable power,
    For each kilowatt hour,
    Shot up prices and rang its death knell.

    470

  • #

    Good Morning Jo,
    I don’t know if its possible to graphically add this into your excellent piece.
    As you probably know, in the 60′s Australians per capita income was about the third-highest in the world.
    However, at the turn of the Century it had slipped to about 17th/18th!
    I don’t think its too much of a stretch to correlate the two!
    What do you think?
    Ever-increasingly warm regards!,
    Reformed Warmist of Logan.

    190

    • #

      At the beginning of the 20th century (Federation) Australia was one of the top countries in the world (next to New Zealand) democraticly and financially. Subsequent governments slowly introduced social policies which took Australia backwards with respect to other countries such as USA. Menzies raised Australian stakes but Whitlam dropped Australia financially by a large amount. In the 1970′s Switzerland was the most democratic country in the world and was about level with Australia financially as it is resource poor and landlocked. Now Switzerland is still the most democratic with small government and is one of the richest countries. It has nuclear energy voted in by the people.

      80

      • #
        yarpos

        Sadly the Swiss people have voted to let the nukes reach end of life and not be replaced. They usually display more common sense, a victory for the green blob (anti nuke department).

        40

      • #
        sophocles

        Subsequent governments slowly introduced social policies which took Australia backwards with respect to other countries such as USA.

        Not “social policies” old chap, it was tax policies. Both NZ and Aus removed Land taxes and with each land tax removed, they fell several places down the international ladder. NZ did it faster than Aus with the
        last land tax killed in 1987/1988 and fell further.

        It was land taxes which built both countries infrastructure and prosperity. But both countries heeded the World Bank which detests land taxes. It means American companies operating in both countries can’t escape paying a fair rate of tax by fiddling loopholes.

        10

  • #

    A picture is worth a thousand words.

    110

  • #
    Robber

    Note that the chart show the trend in retail electricity prices, so that includes:
    – the rise in wholesale prices, per AEMO, from 1999:
    NSW/Qld/SA/Snowy/Tas/Vic $/MWhr
    23.35/53.17/47.69/23.57/ N/A /24.51
    and in 2017/18: (unadjusted for CPI that has risen 63% since 1999 – so 1999 rates today = about $39/MWhr)
    83.92/75.53/101.31/ N/A /91.45/98.89

    – the rise in network costs (remember all the stories about “gold plating”?). Whereas AEMO publishes reliable wholesale costs, network costs are approved by the Australian Energy Regulator and are far less transparent. I couldn’t find any historical baselines. My suspicion is that adding distributed intermittent “renewables” has added substantially to the costs of network facilities and management.

    – the addition of the sale/purchase of renewable energy certificates at a price of about $85/MWhr from both large-scale wind/solar/hydro generators and small scale solar (rooftop) to retailers that is added to retail prices. The aim is for 23.5 per cent of Australia’s energy (the equivalent of 33,000 gigawatt hours) to come from clean sources such as wind, solar and hydro-electric by 2020.

    70

  • #
    Kinky Keith

    The Modern Art of Australian politics.

    All recent governments, whether state or federal have confirmed the main purpose;

    To liberate a stream of cash from the treasury to their own benfit.

    Currently, suppliers?? of “renewable”? energy, save the planet type stuff are doing very well.

    A few years ago Victoria was building a road system with the help of bikies and lollipop persons salaried at $100,000 a year, and they occasionally did some work.

    There are plenty of other examples like the land set aside for the new Hunter dam just disappearing and the loss of the rail corridor to “development”.

    And the latest scam is to make coal unnecessary so that fracking seems to be the answer: just ask Malcolm.

    Our nation is not undergoing Nation Building and there’s not much infrastructure left.

    KK

    150

  • #
    Another Ian

    A bit early for an O/T but for 3.1 degrees F I’ll risk it!

    More “climate fiddling”

    “Delingpole: NOAA Caught Adjusting Big Freeze out of Existence”

    http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2018/02/20/delingpole-noaa-caught-adjusting-big-freeze-out-of-existence/

    3.1 degrees F – I guess that makes it a “bull fiddle” then?

    91

    • #
      Kinky Keith

      The previous thread which incorporated the word Illusion in it’s title is so apt for our times.

      Illusion and misdirection is everywhere and the poor working plebs are being snowed under an avalanche of verbalism.

      Politicians, even those who are aware of the disastrous state we are in, can do nothing, or like Tony Abbott and Malcolm Roberts are burnt and trashed.

      Can anything turn us around.

      KK

      101

      • #

        The legacy media and parliament house lefties have not even singed me, Keith.
        While a senator we learned plenty about CSIRO. And we won’t be hiding it under a bushel.
        Stay tuned.

        201

        • #
          Kinky Keith

          Hello Malcolm, pleased to hear that!

          I am a graduate Metallurgist and consider myself to be more qualified in the assessment of this CAGW scam than almost every “climate scientist” whose academic record I have been able to track down. That includes Will Steffen, who is currently big timing himself in Wellington NZ.

          There is no science involved, it is all politics.

          As our friend, Will Jl, from Arkansas would say:

          All the best.

          p.s. I don’t see CSIRO as being an honourable institution.

          KK

          61

        • #
          Annie

          Glad to hear that! All strength to your arm Sir :)

          50

        • #

          Good to hear from you Malcolm. I’m glad that the Canberra lefties have not singed you. I’m definitely staying tuned.

          40

    • #
      Another Ian

      SDA take and comments on this here

      “Y2Kyoto: It’s Not Tampering”

      http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/2018/02/y2kyoto-its-not-4.html#comments

      30

      • #
        wert

        I’m sorry but all Paul Homewood has is anecdotal evidence on homogenisation doing something locally. I’d like to see the larger picture being analysed by Clinate Audit.

        00

  • #
    Another Ian

    CO2 Questioned

    “Electricity Consumers File New Study in Their Call for EPA to Reopen its Endangerment Finding”

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/02/20/electricity-consumers-file-new-study-in-their-call-for-epa-to-reopen-its-endangerment-finding/

    60

  • #
    David Maddison

    The Australian economy is being deliberately destroyed.

    211

    • #
      PeterS

      I’m not 100% sure it’s deliberate or incompetence but then again it’s irrelevant since either way the people/voters are just as much at fault and hence responsible for the state we are in. Most people don’t even bother to think and vote accordingly because they are too busy with their pathetic lives to notice our nation is crumbling away and dangerously close to the edge of the cliff. We have precious little time to change course using the power of the vote but I can’t see it ever happening.

      50

      • #
        Annie

        It has to be wilful or complete, utter stupidity…surely?

        20

        • #
          PeterS

          What I’m saying is it could be deliberate as they know CAGW is a hoax but are pretending that it’s not and deliberately planning to destroy our nation as would say an enemy during a war. On the other hand they could just be plain stupid and don’t have a clue what they are doing is destroying our nation. The first type are not stupid but clever nation destroyers. Either way they are lethal to our way of life.

          50

          • #
            el gordo

            ‘…. as they know CAGW is a hoax but are pretending that it’s not….’

            They don’t know anything of the sort, its up to the contrarians to convince them otherwise.

            Most of the politicians are seriously brainwashed, so in a very real sense they have put there faith in the scientific consensus. We need to come up with a scientific paradigm shift, but its fair to say this war may eventually be won with house to house fighting.

            30

            • #
              Bushkid

              Sorry El Gordo, I just can’t see how the totality of the political class in both state and federal houses cannot raise even the smallest of questions about the validity of the CAGW claims.

              There is just too much opportunity for them to learn and understand that the entire premise of CAGW is false. I mean, how hard was it for the likes of you and me to find this site, or that of Anthony Watts, for example? What is preventing any politician, staffer, bureaucrat etc from doing exactly the same? Nothing.

              They HAVE to know, they DO know. They just choose to lie about it either to protect their own political skins and/or investments, or out of pure destructive ideology.

              20

  • #
    pat

    Weatherill’s response? renewables are cheaper, and make headlines globally:

    21 Feb: 9News: SA Labor looks to generate 75 percent of state energy from renewable sources if re-elected
    By Luke Cooper
    South Australian Premier Jay Weatherill will seek to generate 75 percent of the state’s power from renewable energy sources within the next eight years if re-elected next month.

    Mr Weatherill is expected to today announce the controversial move to set a new renewable energy target by 2025 as part of the SA Labor election campaign.

    Under the current government South Australia is on-track towards meeting a 50 percent target that was set in September 2014, with 48.9 percent of state energy currently being created from green sources.

    The state government has been widely criticised for its move towards renewable energy, particularly in light of increasing power prices and the 2016 statewide blackout.

    Despite that, Mr Weatherill believes the move can translate into ***cheaper pricing while also attracting global investors to South Australia.

    “Our projects with Tesla’s Elon Musk have generated global headlines,” he told The Advertiser.
    “The world is now looking to SA, and we’re sending yet another signal to renewable energy leaders their investment is welcome in our state.”…
    https://www.9news.com.au/national/2018/02/21/06/01/jay-weatherill-south-australia-renewable-energy-plan

    60

    • #
      John Michelmore

      Jay reckons we’ve got the biggest battery, heading towards the biggest virtual power plant (free solar panels on houses where occupants can’t afford them), building the biggest solar thermal plant in Aus. A caller to the ABC just said “well that matches with the biggest power prices in the world” What an energy mess we have here in SA. Jay indicated that the public owned diesel gas turbines costing us $400 million is taking back control of the market in SA. Groan!

      192

      • #
        Graeme No.3

        John:
        The ‘biggest’ solar thermal station isn’t being built, just announced, waiting on the Federal Govt. to give them $110 million. With the current level of intelligence in Canberra that should be thrown their way shortly.
        As for how “big” it is a question of scale. The coal fired station that Jay blew up had 2 by 256MW generators, whereas the Aurora solar thermal has one of 130MW. Further the coal fired stations could have worked 24 hours a day for most of the year, delivering elecricity at around $45 per MWh. The “wonderful” new solar heat is limited (as Tony from Oz reminds us) to 5 hours of maximum input on a sunny summer day so it won’t be supplying 130MW every hour of the day, and its estimated cost of $172 per MWh. The operators would be lucky to supply 40MW continuously or just fill in peak demand times with about 80MW (that would be more profitable) and they may not operate for the 3 months of winter like other solar thermal plants.
        As for the diesel/gas turbines (and the recently announced diesel generators) the operating cost is never mentioned. I have seen a figure of $300 a MWh for the diesel burners but cannot vouch for its accuracy.
        All up Jay’s announcements now run at $A1.74 billion and I cannot see how they will be paid for except by an increase in electricity rates. The more “CHEAP” renewables you get the HIGHER the electricity bills.

        211

        • #
          yarpos

          Does anyone know of a solar thermal plant anywhere in the world that has delivered on expectations (and whatever derated nameplate they initially chose) over a 12 month period?

          70

    • #
      David Maddison

      They should be given some extra motivation and cut the interconnector with Victoriastan.

      And why stop at 75%? If “renewables” are so wonderful why not make it 100%?

      And no sneaky use of diesel generators. Get rid of those.

      This lot alone is producing 276MW from dual fuel diesel or gas.
      https://amp.afr.com/business/banking-and-finance/diesel-generators-cost-339m-in-sa-power-fix-20171220-h08axd

      The tragic thing is 75 or 100 percent renewable is DOABLE as long as people accept the huge price, intermittency, what little remains of SA industry shuts down and people only use domestic electricity for low power lighting etc, no air con..

      222

    • #
      manalive

      Under the current government South Australia is on-track towards meeting a 50 percent target that was set in September 2014, with 48.9 percent of state energy currently being created from green sources …

      During 2017, 21% of the electric consumed in SA was imported, most coming from Victorian brown coal.
      Fossil fuel energy, gas and brown coal, accounted for 61% of SA’s most important base-load electricity consumption.
      It’s hard to see how SA can generate 75% from ‘renewables’ without greatly increasing fossil fuel imports to keep the lights on when the wind don’t blow or massive investment in storage at $150,000 per MWh for PHES or $400,000 per MWh for Musk batteries.

      110

    • #
      PeterS

      His new pie in the sky renewables target are an impossibility without the interconnect with Victoria. He might as well say he’s going for a 100% renewables target. If he was truly an honest person he would remove the interconnect and spend all the money necessary on more batteries only – not diesel or gas powered generators. Then and only then can he claim to be using 75% renewables or whatever target he wished to achieve. Of course if he did that it would send SA bankrupt, and he knows that, which is why he has to rely on the interconnect. Yet another deceitful politician – just like the rest of them yet voters keep voting for the same types time and time again. Go figure.

      110

      • #
        yarpos

        He seems to think the NEM is evil and wants to be independent. The consistent thing to do would be to withdraw.

        30

      • #

        During February SA survived major blackouts ONLY because of the interconnector with Victoria which filled the power gap by delivering excess Queensland coal fired power and a minor amount from Tasmanian hydro.
        During February SA power was generation was approx. two thirds fossil (gas), one sixth wind and solar and one sixth fossil via the interconnector.
        In other words SA’s power was 83% fossil fuelled and 17% wind and solar.
        Weatherill is like a spoilt child in a toyshop using taxpayers’ pocket money to indulge in his favourite game ruinable energy.

        40

  • #
    robert rosicka

    Latest electric bill came in and wow hasn’t it gone up .

    Peak is now 40.76 cents kWh
    Off peak is now 24.95 cents kWh

    Did a ring around to see if I could beat that but no joy , this is in the glorious people’s republic of Victoriastan and power through Origin.

    150

    • #
      yarpos

      Didn’t Andrews say it would just be a 4-8% increase?

      Didn’t D’Ambrosio say more renewables would put downward pressure on prices?

      Peace in our time, the dams will not refill, I did not have sex with that woman

      40

    • #
      yarpos

      Have you looked at Momentum Robert? they are advertising high 20c range. Dont know how much it changes across distributors, we are with Ausnet.

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  • #
    RickWill

    It saps considerable wealth to save the planet.

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    pat

    anyway, renewables bring jobs!

    21 Feb: news.com.au: Solar farms using backpacker labour: union
    The electricians’ union has accused private firms building solar farms in Queensland of using backpacker labour instead of skilled workers.
    by Matt Coughlan
    Electrical Trades Union Queensland acting secretary Peter Ong told the senators firms were favouring labour-hire companies instead of using electricians on industrial agreements with good pay and conditions.
    “There should be 50 directly employed electricians building a solar farm,” Mr Ong said.
    “I have five electricians and 45 backpackers who are employed through labour hire and paid poverty wages.”

    He said the union was aware of unlicensed work on solar farm work sites…
    “Instead, there’s no real jobs being delivered to any Queenslanders, they’re delivered to backpackers.”…
    http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/solar-farms-using-backpacker-labour-union/news-story/e77b928a53a21646288fca30745b506c

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    • #
      TdeF

      Short term vacation Green jobs for transients. Like solar itself.

      In every technology, renewables means replaceables. Coal power stations should not die if they are maintained like Hazelwood and so unlike Liddell.

      What sort of government rewards ineffiency to the point where cheap coal power is being closed as economically unviable and short term expensive replaceable and inadequate and unreliable power is promoted? We are no longer as a country investing in cheap, efficient, adequate, reliable power but the social agenda of politicians and the greed of energy suppliers who plan to push prices even higher, with government backing.

      What sort of government backs a power system which does not work at night?
      What sort of government backs a power system which only works when the wind blows?

      At what point did our governments go completely mad? There is no global warming and the CO2 is still rising, utterly unaffected.

      Maybe now Barnaby will dump his good friend, Malcolm. They could double their seats against a man who hates the National Party almost as much as he hates the Liberals.

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      yarpos

      Personally the mix doesnt surprise me, there would be a lot of repetitive non electrical donkey work building one of those things.

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  • #
    Macspee

    Looks as though there was a significant increase in the Cain years. May have been caused by interference with the SECV in variou ways including ripping out dividends in excess of its surpluses, funding the Alcoa transmission, supporting unviable social experiments and other inanities of the then government.

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    • #
      TdeF

      The absurd move was putting aluminium smelting in Portland in 1984. Half the power was lost in transmission. What’s the sense in that?
      Even building the transmission line cost $250Million, billions in today’s money. All for votes.

      However that was when we had the problem with disposing of abundant free night time power. In China, the aluminium smelters are next to the power stations, as they should be. This is what happens when politicians play with engineering and power.

      Now they are hooked on a National Grid in a country which is as big as the Continental US. Again, power politics from Canberra, not sense. By the time they finish the white elephant which is the NBN, it will be obsolete as expected.

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      • #

        Did the port have a role to play in the decision to build there?

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        • #
          TdeF

          No. At the time, it was all about votes. The port did not come into any discussion. All the towns along the coast were originally ports for coal or lumber or produce, simply because there were no roads, no trucks and only bullock wagons. Also by this time, trucks and roads were the way everything was moved.

          Also aluminium is far lighter than steel, twice the density of water or oil. So ships are not needed. The power/weight/cost issue is why I have always promoted aluminium as a cost competitive substitute for petrol, but who listens to real science? Humans only burn carbon from tradition, not metals even when the metals are infintely recylcable, where wood and fossil fuels are not.

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          • #
            Macspee

            Originally Alcoa wanted to build at Port Welshpool close to the power stations in the Latrobe Valley but Bolte was in a bind and badly needed votes in the Western District and came up with the idea of building at Portland and agreed that the SECV would build a purpose built power station and provide transmission. Alcoa in the end wriggled a lot but caved in under pressure when the Cain government gave them a deal they could not refuse that eventually cost the SECV dearly.

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    • #
      Dennis

      His son and grandson of a previous Labor premier is now Solicitor for Public Prosecutions in Victoria.

      The present Labor government shut down a six year twelve detective investigation into the AWU slush fund from the Victoria perspective after gaining power and the SPP said the investigation led to no charges possible.

      WA also had an investigation and one person has been charged, the next court hearing is at the end of February 2018. A retired detective sergeant from WA Police has just become a whistleblower and so far reported was an interview taped during which he stated political interference was a serious issue. There are two others directly involved who have not yet been charged by WA Police who were Vic Pol suspects and under investigation.

      I understand that there will be some very interesting news after the next WA court hearing that might embarrass government and judiciary in Victoria. If not, a civil action to be filed soon will.

      See Michael Smith News website

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      • #
        Dennis

        EXCLUSIVE

        Cop speaks on AWU scandal

        21-02-18 – Retired West Australian detective David McAlpine who investigated the AWU slush fund scandal pictured in Thailand this week.

        ANDREW BURRELL

        The retired detective who led the police investigation into the ­AWU fraud scandal has broken his silence.
        The Australian today

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  • #
    David Maddison

    The elites of the NWO are now focusing on Australia more than ever since they no longer have a compliant puppet like Obama.

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  • #
    Lance

    Reposting a relevant article link. Geoff Brown posted it on The Australian Climate Sceptics Blog.

    http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.com/2018/02/renewables-quiz-containing-good-data.html

    Methinks the all affected by electric rates in AU ought read the article. Especially SA.

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  • #
    Chad

    Can anyone explain why SAustralia frequently suck power from victoria via the interconnector, when they have more than enough of their own gas generation capacity standing idle ?
    It appears that if there is not enough wind, they prefer to use Victorias coal power rather than their own gas plants.
    Is this simply a cost decision…vic power cheaper than SA gas ?
    Or is there some other reason ?
    Its easy to see these situations on the nem widget.

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  • #
    Peter Fitzroy

    So privatisation, and the subsequent movement of profits offshore had nothing to do with it? This does not let renewables off the hook, I’m just noting that there is more than one factor driving up the price

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    • #
      el gordo

      Agreed.

      The Greens are saying its not the RET which has upset the balance, but those greedy multinationals are beggaring the country and this will resonate at election times.

      Essentially propaganda, because it tells only half the story.

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    • #
      sophocles

      Peter asked:

      So privatisation, and the subsequent movement of profits offshore had nothing to do with it?

      It had a lot to do with it. Australia is being milked. It’s one of the ways of milking Bessie without her making too much fuss.

      If you find yourself a copy of Prof Mike Hudson’s book “J is for Junk Economics – a Guide to Reality in an Age of Deception” and then do the sums, you will suddenly understand why the world seems so poor now. The parasites are sucking up Trillions, not Millions and not even Billions. Trillions. Money which would otherwise have been invested productively ….

      20

  • #

    Note that green section at the right of this excellent graph. That’s the total power generation for renewables in Australia.

    At the moment, 2017/8 it’s around 17.5TWH per year.

    The total power generation for all Australia is currently around 250TWH, so with all the incredible Billions thrown at it over recent years, they can stiill only manage 7% of the total power requirement for Australia.

    The cost is important, but far and away the biggest thing is that ….. it just doesn’t work, on the scale required.

    Tony.

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    • #
      Ian1946

      A key point that the widget shows is how often only Queensland and Tasmania are producing excess power. Tasmania’s threat to leave the NEM would make keeping the lights on in SA and Vic increasingly difficult. IHMO

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      • #

        What are they going to do, chop though the BassLink interconnector?

        It’s all bluster from clueless politicians.

        From what I have seen over the last eight Months or so, those Interconnectors are very effectively used.

        I wonder what would happen in Queensland if the people were actually told that virtually all the time, coal fired power is generating 110 to 115% of Queensland’s actual total power consumption.

        There’s nothing in the way of coal fired power North of Rockhampton (the Stanwell Plant) and there’s still 2000 Kilometres to the Cape, and a lot of large cities in between that get by on gas fired power and hydro. All of that excess power is generated in that SE corner, and is sold off to NSW via the two Interconnectors.

        North Queensland can not go ahead without new large scale constant and reliable power, (they’re strapped now) and because of the losses, there’s no way that the excess power in that SE corner can be diverted North.

        It’s just a jockeying of figures to make it look like we have enough (and excess in fact) coal fired power in Queensland. The State Government owns (virtually) ALL the coal fired power in the State, (way too late to the Privatisation party) and is making an absolute Motza selling it in Queensland and also NSW.

        As long as people think that the (excess) power from, say, the Milmerran plant near the NSW border can be used to supply Cairns (1600Km + away) then they (the Government) will just get away with saying we have more than enough.

        Tony.

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        • #
          Ian1946

          Tony,

          The point I was trying to make was that Tasmania could then say to Victoria not enough power, then we will sell it to you for $14,000 per Mw. As you correctly point out a new HELE power station is needed in North Queensland and probably around the Rockhampton/McKay area close to the coal lines.

          The current interconnectors allow the southern socialist to wreck their generation without having to face the consequences.

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        • #
          yarpos

          They could withdraw from the NEM and negotiate bilaterally with VIC

          20

      • #
        Chad

        Tasmania’s threat to leave the NEM would make keeping the lights on in SA and Vic increasingly difficult. IHMO….

        It does appear that way at times, but if you look at the AEMO site , SA has a suplus of Fossil generating capacity that it never uses for some reason ?

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    • #
      yarpos

      Sad part about the grap is, that if you showed it to a layperson the TWh number would seem enormous. There is no context to Oz total or NEM total maybe

      30

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    Andrew

    The green blob is talking about how it’s not Unreliables – it’s privatisation to blame for soaring prices. Can you pls add another arrow pointing to when Kennett’s asset sales occurred? I’m sure the correlation will be stark and immediately apparent to readers.

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    Mark M

    Here is a small piece of history from 1972 on video that might be argued as the ‘tipping point’ on that graph …

    “We were in the midst of an “environmental crisis” back then, too.
    Humanity was selfish and reckless. Capitalism was bad.
    The evidence was “overwhelming.”
    Oh, and poor countries were demanding that rich ones pay reparations.

    https://nofrakkingconsensus.com/2015/12/11/as-the-paris-climate-summit-fades-into-history-a-real-news-story/

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    pat

    21 Feb: RenewEconomy: Giles Parkinson: S.A. Labor shoots for 75 per cent renewables, 25% storage target
    South Australia’s Labor government has doubled down on its commitment to renewable energy, promising to increase the share of renewables to 75 per cent by 2025 if re-elected at next month’s state poll, and announcing plans to install 750MW of “renewable storage” to go with it.

    The decision to lift the 2025 target to 75 per cent (it is currently 50 per cent but that level has already been reached) represents by far the most ambitious target by a major grid anywhere in the world…
    “Renewable energy means cheaper power for all South Australians,” said Premier Jay Weatherill…

    The move may also be designed to turn the upcoming poll into a de-facto referendum on renewable energy, which is popular with voters – more so than Labor itself.
    The Opposition Liberal Party has vowed to scrap the state’s renewable energy target, even though the target stands in name only because there is actually no state-based mechanism, unlike Victoria…

    South Australia says it already generates 48.9 per cent of its energy production from renewable energy, although some estimates put the level at slightly above 50 per cent.

    This will be boosted with the 220MW Bungala solar farm, the 117MW Tailem Bend solar farm, and the 212MW Lincoln Gap wind farm – all under construction. And there is another 2GW of wind and solar proposed, including by the new owners of the Whyalla steelworks, as well as DP Energy, and others…

    ***In an accompanying statement Treasurer Tom Koutsantonis focused on the increased competition that would come from more renewable energy generation, more batteries and more pumped hydro.
    “The Liberal’s privatisation of our electricity assets was the worst policy decision in South Australia’s history,” he said.
    “We now have a situation where powerful companies make huge profits from the limited competition in the system, to extract massive profits out of customers for their shareholders.”
    http://reneweconomy.com.au/s-a-labor-shoots-for-75-per-cent-renewables-25-storage-target-2025/

    Coalition’s plans seem very dull by comparison! lol:

    21 Feb: news.com.au: Federal $1m funding for two SA hydro energy storage projects to be unveiled in Adelaide
    ELECTRICITY customers to avoid lengthy delays in getting a new or replacement smart meter.
    by Sheradyn Holderhead
    FEASIBILITY studies into two pumped hydro energy storage projects will receive $1 million in funding, federal Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg will announce in Adelaide on Wednesday.
    Returning to the scene of his infamous clash over energy policy with Premier Jay Weatherill last year, the minister said the projects were designed to strengthen the SA system “and deliver more affordable and reliable power for SA families and businesses”.
    “SA is facing a significant transition issue which is implicating both system security and electricity pricing,” Mr Frydenberg said.
    “That’s why we’re investing in projects such as these, because the SA Government failed to take energy storage needs into account all the while pursuing a reckless 50 per cent renewable energy target.”…

    Mr Frydenberg is now pushing for a change to the national grid rules that would mean electricity customers could avoid delays in getting a new or replacement smart meter…
    The meters help customers monitor usage and adjust usage to save money.
    http://www.news.com.au/national/south-australia/federal-1m-funding-for-two-sa-hydro-energy-storage-projects-to-be-unveiled-in-adelaide/news-story/3decf9de2056fc3f89a07cdb0866cead

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  • #
    Greg in NZ

    To paraphrase: Freezing snow fell for forty years in NZ, then MORE came.

    Slightly O/T but hey, I scored a white birthday and I’m off snowboarding… in summer… yeehaah Gita!

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/101598840/Its-only-February-and-its-snowing-in-the-ranges-near-Queenstown-and-Wanaka

    And yet this morning, our Minister of C.C., James ‘the Green’ Shaw, stated that “it’s obvious to all” that climate now causes weather. Oops – I thought it was the other way round. Then again, he was speaking at a Klimate Kook Klan gathering in Wellington, where a cold southerly front is about to slap them back to reality. These bludgers-in-suits need to get outdoors more often…

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    • #
      el gordo

      Summer snow is a regional cooling signal.

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      • #
        sophocles

        and it’s the second year in a row. We haven’t had any “AGW” over the last 130 years at all, but snow in summer, while not unheard of, has been relatively rare. Now, it’s the second year in a row.

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        • #
          el gordo

          These dates 1790 -1810 and 1880 – 1910 are clear signs of a Gleissbergs.

          http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1191/0959683604hl679rr

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          • #
            sophocles

            Could be. 1790 – 1830 was the Dalton Minimum, and Charles Dickens gave us some good reporting about climate conditions then in his books. No argument from me about 1880 -1910. The 1890s weren’t exactly warm, but they weren’t as bad as the Dalton.

            Zharkov’s solar dynamo idea fits pretty well. I’m very interested in Zharkov’s idea of the dual solar dynamos. Their phase relationships explain so much, so it’s going to be very interesting to see how the coming predicted minimum shapes up. (Down actually :-) ). Zharkov has predicted a deep Maunder-type minimum which is very little activity. Other’s are still talking about one similar to the Dalton, which was reduced activity if the SSCs (Sun Spot Counts) are any guide.

            The Sporer is now thought to be the result of a cosmic ray storm. Zharkov pointed out that the aurorae showed the sun was active all through it and transferred the blame to incoming Cosmic Rays from the two novae known as Tycho’s star [1572] and Kepler’s star [1604]. The Oort, Wolf, Maunder and Dalton seem to meet Zharkov’s criteria for true Solar minima.

            Solar Cycle 25 is due to start in a couple of years. Predictions are starting to appear. It’s going to be very interesting to compare them with reality including Prof Zharkov’s research. What we are going to be seeing may be as shallow as the Oort Minimum, then again, it could be as bad as the Maunder Minimum (1645-1715). Cycle 24, I think, was slightly weaker than cycle 5 (1790-1812). Cycle 25 is already postulated to be going to be slightly stronger than cycle 24.

            We’ll soon see. In some ways, I’m looking forward to it. We live in interesting times.

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  • #
    Another Ian

    Around this area

    “Global Warming Zealotry: A case study in groupthink”

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/02/20/global-warming-zealotry-a-case-study-in-groupthink/

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  • #
    Geoffrey Williams

    The graph above tells it all;
    Up to the the turn of the century we had the cheapest electricity ever. Government recognised this and could not resist the oportunity to do some price gouging!
    Anything put more money into their coffers . . .
    (Just like the bottle rebate here in NSW)
    Regards GeoffW

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  • #

    Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance calls for New South Wales to exit the National Energy Market

    Would be wise to leave.

    Would be smart to remove the noise between consumers and generators from the market signal.

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    • #
      James

      Weatherdill wants to move to 75 percent renewables! S.A. The basket case state!

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      • #

        The State of South Australia is having a day of large power consumption today, almost 2000MW right now.

        You know, just less than HALF of what is currently being consumed in Sydney

        Tony.

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        • #

          The State of South Australia is having a day of large power consumption today, almost 2000MW right now.

          You know, around the same as ….. Woolworths Australia!

          Tony.

          (seriously, no sarcasm at all!)

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          • #
            James

            And a quarter of that is from the interconnects with Victoria.

            Some thing I have been wondering about. Why is the ratings on the various state interconnects asymmetrical. For example MSNP1is 16 MW to Victoria but 130 MW when going to South Australia?

            30

        • #
          Chad

          Tony, any suggestions why SA is importing 500+ MW currently, when they are only generating 1200MW of the 2000+ they could generate themselves from their Gas plants ?

          50

          • #
            toorightmate

            Why bother starting gas fired power plants?
            Subsidies make life so easy.
            Never mind that subsidies are depriving society of higher pensions, better disability statements, better hospitals, more schools, etc.
            Just keep on chewing up subsidies – it is now part of the ALP platform which Turnbull and company seem happy to follow.

            The CO2 horsesh*t has to stop.

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  • #
    Kinky Keith

    The cost benefits of economy of scale are a standout of the first part of the graph until about 1980.

    Then it is obvious that someone made a killing for a couple of years before it settled and then began it’s permanent upward climb.

    If you assume that at worst, the graph should have continued down and then gone horizontal you can do something that will make you sick.

    Assume that everything above the imaginary line is a bonus, or theft if you like, taken by someone.

    A lot of unaccounted for cash?

    Who got it? Politics is evil.

    KK

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    • #
      RickWill

      The extra cost has not gone solely into profit. A large slice of it has gone into wind and solar generating assets and grid enhancements to enable those assets to be connected. You do not need to install your own solar to help pay for someone else to do it. The RET forces those without solar to help pay for those who have installed it. Anyone paying for electricity are contributing to the cost of installing wind generators – subsidies are about half their income and they need that to make a small profit.

      Looking solely at wind generation there was 4360MW installed by end of 2015. That capacity is around 17% of average demand but all that plant only provides 5% of the total demand on average but can be anywhere between 0% and 20% at any point in time – essentially worse than useless because it is highly destabilising and forcing low cost generators to close shop.

      The pollies in other states have not yet cottoned on to how South Australia is destroying the whole Australian economy – not bad for such a small population. Other States are so caught in the hype that they want a slice of it. We have been close to the Jay – Dan phone call this year but some “blown fuses” and “possums” have saved that conversation for another day. Given the speed South Australian households are installing rooftop solar they might avoid that particular conversation. The next one will be the flip side when the SA demand dries up and the wind generators there want to dump more power into Victoria – not possible if Dan meets his planet saving target.

      All the additional wind and solar has resulted in one 50+ year old low cost coal generator shutting down. That needed to be replaced with almost an equivalent amount of alternative fossil fuelled generators at further additional cost.

      What a right royal mess. Old hands in the Australian power industry have a wry smile when the topic is raised. There is no Trump in Australia so I anticipate there is a long way to go before reality bites.

      It will be interesting to read the AEMO submissions when they are published. We are a year on from the Finkel inquiry and the picture should be clearer to those wanting to see.

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    pat

    ***”that’s what is going to happen”…so you are going to go down and fingers will be wagging? can’t understand this quote.

    20 Feb: Guardian: South Australia election: Jay Weatherill criticised over fossil fuel expansions
    Premier’s position on oil drilling and fracking described as ‘disingenuous’ after debate
    by Michael Slezak
    “The single biggest environmental challenge in our state, the nation, the world is action on climate change,” Weatherill said. “And I’m proud to say that this state government is a leader not just in the nation but in the world.”…

    Weatherill said that those moves – which include shifting the state’s electricity supply from “basically 99% fossil fuels” to 48.9% – would be the dominant issues at voting booths.
    “Make no mistake, this next election will be treated, whether we like it or not, as a referendum on renewable energy,” he said. “If we go down, they will be wagging their fingers at everybody around the nation, to say that’s what happens if you push too hard into renewable energy. That’s what the prime minister is trying to do and ***that’s what is going to happen.”

    The audience applauded that statement but was less pleased when attention turned to large-scale fossil fuel expansions in the state.
    Several companies including Statoil are lining up to explore for oil in the virtually pristine waters of the Great Australian Bight. The potential oil reserves there have been compared to the Gulf of Mexico, one of the world’s most productive off-shore oil regions.
    Weatherill said he supported existing processes, where any application to drill for oil would be assessed by the federal regulator, the National Offshore Petroleum Safety and Environmental Management Agency.

    The Liberal leader, Steven Marshall, took a similar line, while the SA Best leader, Nick Xenophon, and the Greens leader, Mark Parnell, repeated their opposition to the proposed drilling…

    The parties lined up differently when it came to another proposed fossil fuel expansion – fracking in the state’s south-east.
    The Liberal party has proposed a 10-year moratorium, supported by both the Greens and SA Best. The Labor party continues to support expansion of fracking there, despite strong community opposition based on fears about contamination of the water resources in the prime agricultural region…

    “A government championing its climate change credentials while also pushing for massive expansions to the fossil fuel industry is pretty disingenuous,” said Peter Owen, the South Australia director of the Wilderness Society and spokesman for OurFutureSA.
    “South Australia is currently supporting massive expansions to the climate damaging fossil fuel industry in the state’s south-east, north and offshore in the Great Australian Bight.
    “This could lead to hundreds of times more carbon pollution than SA’s current emissions, completely undermining the government’s leadership position on renewables. We must stop the expansion of the fossil fuel industry to have any chance of providing our children with a liveable climate.”

    This article was amended on 21 February. It previously incorrectly stated that Chevron was involved in oil exploration in the Great Australian Bight. Chevron abandoned plans to drill there in 2017.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/feb/20/south-australia-election-jay-weatherill-criticised-over-fossil-fuel-expansions

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    pat

    15 Feb: Guardian: How Labor’s energy spending spree has electrified the South Australian election
    Labor’s energy spend may be the most popular thing an unpopular government has done
    by Royce Kurmelovs in Adelaide
    That renewable energy should take centre stage in the campaign should come as no surprise. The battle lines were drawn in 2016, when a statewide blackout turned South Australia’s energy policy into a crucible for the national debate.
    This intense focus on South Australia’s energy network, the causes of its unprecedented blackout and its remarkable uptake of wind power, cast Australia’s fifth-largest economy into the middle of a fierce national argument…

    If it sounds like the Liberal party in South Australia is placing a bet each way on renewables, it’s because Labor’s energy spending spree may be the most popular thing an unpopular government has done. The latest Newspoll shows Labor trailing behind both the Liberals and Nick Xenophon’s SA best, but Prof John Spoehr, an industry observer and director of the Australian Industrial Transformation Institute at Flinders University, says the success of the energy plan has boosted its fortunes.
    “Most observers thought that Labor’s electoral prospects were pretty poor going into this election, up until the energy policy announcement. That helped to significantly improve Labor’s electoral prospects,” Prof Spoehr said…

    ***That assessment is backed up by a Reachtel poll in February that found about 60% of South Australians were proud of the state’s leadership on renewable energy. Support was high even among Liberal voters with 44.7% saying Australia should switch to renewables and storage within 10 years. A majority of voters also backed Tesla’s big battery with 28.6% rating it as “very positive” and 24.6% as “positive” for South Australia…

    Danny Price, managing director of Frontier Economics: “The reason why the blackout occurred had nothing to do with renewables at all. It had a lot to do with the way the system was mismanaged in the lead up to the storm.”…

    While renewables have revived Labor’s electoral fortunes by providing a bold break with the past, the three-way contest expected on 17 March means there there is no way to know which way things are headed…
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/feb/15/how-labors-energy-spending-spree-has-electrified-the-south-australian-election

    ***ReachTel poll? must be what Giles Parkinson/RenewEconomy was referring to as well.
    but it’s not just a ReachTel poll:

    5 Feb: EnergyMatters: South Australian energy poll says we should follow their lead on solar and battery storage
    A South Australian energy poll shows a majority of South Australians think the rest of the country should join the state in switching to renewable energy and storage.

    The ReachTEL poll, ***commissioned by the Climate Council, examined South Australian attitudes towards having the highest highest proportion of wind and solar electricity in the country…
    A clear majority of respondents (62.2%) thought Australia should switch to solar and wind, plus storage, as the main source of energy within the next 10 years…

    Nearly 60% of people polled (33.5% Liberal, 83.3% Labor, 54.3% SA Best) said Australia should follow SA’s lead on renewable energy and storage within the next ten years.

    A large bloc of Liberal voters (44.7%) said Australia should switch to renewables plus storage in the same period. This contrasts with support for coal and gas-fired energy (17.4% and 12.5% respectively).

    Over 55% of voters said SA’s leadership on renewables and storage would cut pollution and fight climate change.
    Almost 44% think policies supporting solar, wind and storage is boosting the state’s economy (23.3% Liberal and 67.6% Labor).

    Andrew Stock said the poll shows that, despite heavy criticism from the Federal Government, South Australia’s renewable energy policies are bearing fruit.
    https://www.energymatters.com.au/renewable-news/south-australian-energy-poll-follow-storage/

    what to say?

    good luck finding the actual ReachTel poll with its data, methodologies etc. I’ve given up the search.

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      Graeme No.3

      pat:

      I think that would be a robo-poll with questions guiding the conclusions. I had one with a choice of 3 and you answered by pressing 1, 2 or 3 except that if you pressed 3 it repeated the question, then on pressing 3 again informed you “Incorrect Option”. I guess my answer wasn’t included in the numbers even though it was a legitimate choice.

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      • #
        RickWill

        Graeme#3
        What is your call on the SA elections?

        It appears electricity will play a big role in the outcome. I figure a significant proportion of the voters are enjoying lower electricity bills. On the other hand there are more of them without a job – are voters capable of connecting the dots?

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          toorightmate

          Not in SA.
          Voters are incapable of any rational thinking – 15 years of disaster proves it.

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          Graeme No.3

          I don’t know how it will pan out. Labor has hit the race running with huge (for SA) spending announcements, mostly about renewables which they insist will reduce electricity bills. As far as I can find out a lot of people want lower electricity bills, but as Labor, Liberal and SABest have all committed to increaed renewables I can’t see telling people the opposite to be a game changer. They will have to find out the hard way after the election.
          Labor has an ad going in which Marshall (the Lib. leader) calls for a Labor government – he is a bit gaff prone. From the little I’ve heard it hasn’t gone down well.
          As for the 2 local electorates Labor won’t feature except in distribution of their preferences. Both have very strong SABest candidates against Liberals. The local one has an equally strong hard running Liberal and I think the Lib. will win. The other seat around Stirling might well go to SABest, but there are just over 3 weeks to go.
          As for the wider sphere it is impossible to say. Labor’s vote will be well down on last time, and the 3% bias they enjoyed last time has gone so theoretically they should get trounced (as they deserve) and a lot of people are having doubts about Xenophon as just about everyone who expresses an opinion thinks that if he was making the choice then he would go for Labor, thus SABest may not get anywhere near as high a vote as thought. Thus I think a narrow win for the Liberals provided they can keep Turnbull from generating any more adverse reaction and locally if they can keep Vicki Chapman quiet (the local Deputy) who has already cost them one election in the past and who will cost the Liberal in Stirling votes as a ward that has switched into the electorate has had her as the local member for 8 years and she has left a distinct shortage of people wanting to vote Liberal.

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            RickWill

            Someone in SA needs to ask a simple question. How can more money be thrown at power generating assets to produce lower cost electricity without removing other assets. So far, increasing the amount of wind and solar has only resulted in an increase in high cost gas and diesel fuelled plant. What magic can alter that situation.

            No matter how much wind and solar plant is installed there will still be times when it produces nothing. By far the cheapest source of buffering is fossil generation. Any form of storage at a significant scale adds another layer of expense.

            This is probably not a good election for Libs to win. They need Jay to reap the rewards of his folly.

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              Graeme No.3

              RickWill:

              I can only assume that Jay Weatherdill is counting on the Fairy Godmother to appear and wave a magic wand.

              Even if he somehow ‘wins’ I cannot see Weatherill lasting the full term; as the vultures come home to roost taking the super and a long holiday abroad will look good. Then he will explain that the economic mess he’s made is due to not reaching 75% renewables.

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              yarpos

              The fundamental need to duplicate and the lack of grid scale storage seem to be things that cannot be seen and will not be discussed. Its seems to be an emperors new clothes situation between the pollies and the media.

              Its like they think if they turn there back on it , magic will happen and it will go away. This is all after spending half a billion dollars in big band aids from the last round of wishful thinking. Its not clear what they think they are doing differently that this cycle will not continue and costs will mount if they wish to retain basic availability standards.

              It almost seems the have a childlike lack of any sense of scale and if they talk about enough projects , chant enough renewable buzzwords and somehow it will all work out.

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    pat

    perservered a little longer & this is the best I can find. naturally, it doesn’t link to the DODGY poll:

    2 Feb: ClimateCouncil: SA to Oz: Follow our clean energy lead
    SOUTH AUSTRALIAN voters want to see the rest of Australia follow in the state’s clean energy footsteps, with new polling showing that 57.6% of respondents believe the rest of the country should switch to renewable energy and storage in the next 5 to 10 years.

    The ReachTel poll, commissioned by the Climate Council, (conducted on the evening of Monday, January 29th) investigated South Australian attitudes towards the state’s leadership on renewable energy and storage, including the recent installation of the world’s largest lithium ion battery…

    “These results show that no matter what the age, around 60% of people polled are proud of the state’s clean energy leadership,” (Andrew Stock) said…

    “This poll shows that most believe having the world’s most powerful battery has also boosted the state’s reputation. They also believe that by embracing solar power as homeowners and businesses, they are doing more to deal with power prices than the Federal Government,” he said. ..
    KEY FINDINGS ETC..

    For more information please contact Senior Communications Advisor Alexia Boland on 0430 511 068.
    https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/sa-to-oz-follow-our-clean-energy-lead

    this bit of propaganda you can download. so simple, you wonder why they didn’t do this for the poll(sarc):

    14 Feb: ClimateCouncil: Report: Fully Charged: Renewables and Storage Powering Australia
    The ‘Fully Charged: Renewables and Storage Powering Australia’ report shows that Australia is on the cusp of a reliable renewable energy future, as the cost of energy storage rapidly drops, with prices dropping by 80 per cent since 2010, and are tipped to halve again by 2025.
    DOWNLOAD THE REPORT
    https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/battery-storage-2018

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    pat

    ***someone else noticed the lack of data. why on earth would ReachTel/Climate Council wish to hide it?

    5 Feb: SolarQuotes: Michael Bloch: South Australian Pride In Renewable Energy
    A recent poll indicates the majority of South Australians are proud of the state’s wind and solar power achievements – and they want other states to follow SA’s lead.
    Commissioned by the Climate Council, the ReachTel poll quizzed attitudes in South Australia on January 29 (before the solar + storage bonanza announcement yesterday) in relation to the state’s standing on renewables and energy storage…

    ***Unfortunately, the full report hasn’t been published by the Climate Council yet. It would have been interesting to see more detail, such as the number of people interviewed, how the questions were posed and the choice of answers provided – some of the findings seem a little vague…
    https://www.solarquotes.com.au/blog/south-australia-renewable-energy-mb0446/

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    • #
      Dennis

      Opinion polls are not difficult to slant in whatever direction the answers you require can be found, and by polling areas in which you are most likely to reach voters who would agree with whatever.

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    RickWill

    This is a good sales pitch on solar/batteries:
    http://reneweconomy.com.au/tesla-battery-solar-now-significantly-cheaper-grid-power-51011/

    It is the inevitable outcome of pushing more grid scale solar and wind to create the most expensive grid sourced electricity in the world:

    The difference between Chart 1 and Chart 2, over just 14 months, is remarkable. The writing was on the wall for grid-only supply 14 months ago and while we expected the gap between grid only and PV+battery+grid would grow larger, this is happening more quickly than we imagined.

    South Australia’s consumers bought 20% less electricity from the grid in 2017 than they did in 2010. I imagine that by 2025 the amount will be at least 20% less again.

    This makes the SA target of 75% a doddle as there is already enough wind and solar generation to meet the much diminished demand by 2025.

    One interesting detail in this is that the battery price has increased with time over the two analyses – aren’t battery prices supposed to fall!. Elon Musk lives in the USA and only thinks in USD. As Australia gets deeper in the mire of wind and solar grid power, the AUD will continue to decline and the declining battery prices will remain elusive. But a certainty is grid power prices will continue to climb so it is only time and fundamentals that guarantee the demise of the grid.

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    gary

    Water prices starting increasing in 1998 as well, e.g. according to the ABS since 1/09/1998 in Brisbane water prices have increased by 3.69x, electricity by 3.5x and the CPI by 1.69x (ref ABS 6401 Table 9 640107).

    The lefties starting taking over water authorities about then and they have clearly done their best to wreck the joint – and make a lot of money for themselves – and cause hardship for many.

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    Another Ian

    To adapt a phraseology from Chiefio you can say that electricity in eastern Australia is a project been “Turnbulled”

    “Yeah, just dumping bio-diesel into fighter jets? Sounds like another Merkel idea… (The adjective, merkel, means “hair brained in the extreme and due to fail catastrophically”, minor usage of a verb form: “to dither about failing to achieve anything, even forming a government”… To merkel a project can mean to make it hair brained and prone to failure or to dither about changing directions, missing deadlines, and busting budgets, so one needs to add phrases to get the exact meaning.)”

    https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2018/02/19/w-o-o-d-19-feb-2018/#comment-91474

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    David Maddison

    I wonder if Soros funds the Renew Economy website?

    Their latest claim is that a battery plus solar is significantly cheaper than grid power.

    Even if this were true (unlikely) it would only be so due artificially inflated grid prices. In a free market, it would be impossible to beat grid coal, gas, properly engineered traditional hydro or nuclear.

    http://reneweconomy.com.au/tesla-battery-solar-now-significantly-cheaper-grid-power-51011/

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      rollo

      Well David if electricity prices keep rising at the same rate battery/solar for the home will soon be cheaper than grid power and they will have achieved their aim. They’ll probably ban home petrol/diesel generators also to make solar and batteries the only choice.

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        OriginalSteve

        If it continues its current trajectory, it will be cheap because the economy has collapsed along the way…..

        Renrwables= the econony being white ant-ed by socialism….

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    • #
      Kinky Keith

      Clear
      Concise.
      True.

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    pat

    21 Feb: ABC: SA election: 75pc renewables achievable with or without Weatherill’s target, analyst says
    By political reporter Nick Harmsen
    Opposition Leader Steven Marshall indicated the Liberal Party would stick with its plan to scrap the state-based Renewable Energy Target.
    He said the Weatherill Government’s mismanagement of the transition to renewable energy had left the state with the nation’s highest wholesale power prices.
    “January’s figures are out, February’s figures are out. Who’s the highest in the nation? South Australia,” Mr Marshall said…

    Modelling published by independent firm Green Energy Markets last month shows that by 2025, South Australia is on track to achieve 73 per cent renewable energy as a proportion of generation.
    Green Energy Markets analyst Tristan Edis said British billionaire Sanjeev Gupta’s recent investments in Whyalla steel and local renewables would make the target significantly easier to achieve.
    “If the GFG Alliance projects go ahead then, no matter which way you measure the target, we’re already set to go very close to 75 per cent renewables on a business as usual basis,” Mr Edis said.
    “So it looks like SA Labor are up to their old tricks of claiming credit for something they have little to do with.”…

    The SA Premier kicked off his push for more renewables and storage, with a $3 million grant to install a large-scale solar and battery “microgrid” at the former Holden factory at Elizabeth.
    The money will assist renewable energy company Carnegie to install 3 megawatts of solar panels and 2 megawatts of battery storage at the site, which is due to be transformed into Lionsgate Business Park…
    Carnegie managing director Michael Ottaviano said the solar system would cover about a fifth of the Holden factory’s roof space, and would be one of the largest behind-the-meter microgrids in the country.
    “What it will do is give energy to the current and future tenants of the former Holden manufacturing facility that is cleaner, more secure and cheaper than what they can currently access from the grid,” he said.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-21/sa-to-be-powered-by-75-per-cent-renewables-by-2025/9470408

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    pat

    21 Feb: ABC: ‘No-frills’ electricity should be made available to NSW households, inquiry told
    By state political reporter Ashleigh Raper
    Social service groups have told a NSW Upper House inquiry into electricity prices that electricity providers need to make “no-frills” plans available to all low-income households.
    St Vincent de Paul said a simple, basic plan with a “clear and predictable price” needed to be offered…

    “Someone up the road who just comes in gets 40 per cent off,” NCOSS CEO Tracy Howe said.
    “It’s certainly not fair,” she said.
    “There should be some kind of regulation to protect them.”
    The suggestion was made at a New South Wales Upper House inquiry into electricity supply, demand and prices…

    Chief executive Tracy Howe raised concerns that unlike in Victoria, there doesn’t seem to be enough pressure on electricity providers from the New South Wales Government…
    She detailed how some people go without food and medical treatment to pay electricity bills.

    Both charity groups have also called for an overhaul to the rebate system so that it’s based on a percentage on the bill rather than a flat rate…
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-21/electricity-prices-urgent-need-for-low-income-households/9471718

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    robert rosicka

    OT but remember Hanrahan .
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-21/abnormal-cyclone-season-leaves-northern-wa-under-threat-again/9471302

    Wasn’t it supposed to be a dry year and didn’t film flam say the west coast would have to be evacuated because of no rainfall ?

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    pat

    I have read scores of articles from the South African media on the water situation in Cape Town, and I can’t recall “climate change” being mentioned in any of them.

    ABC finds an odd character, who has barely been quoted in local media on the subject, to say just what ABC wants to hear.

    pity ABC also gets the dam level wildly wrong. they are not good with numbers:

    21 Feb: ABC: Cape Town’s Day Zero pushed back, but authorities say drought threat still real
    7.30 Report, By Africa correspondent Sally Sara

    The dam is at ***less than 13 per cent of its capacity, and summer isn’t over yet…

    Irrigator Keith Bradley has spent his life in this valley. He’s seen good seasons and bad, but nothing like this…
    Without significant rain, Cape Town will hit ‘Day Zero’ on July 9.

    Western Cape Environment Minister Anton Bredell says while some critics have dismissed Day Zero as alarmist, the disaster is real…
    “We need to keep the sustainability in the long term. Climate change is real. I think that message has landed. And I think it is now, how we as government are going to work with the private sector to protect our resources going forward.”…

    The Government is examining a range of long-term measures, including desalination and utilising aquifers. It’s even seeking Australian advice on how to deal with the problem.
    “The question we are grappling with — and we are sending a task team to Australia to learn from your side also — is how do you create sustainable cities? And what do you need for cities to be sustainable, resource-wise,” Mr Bredell says…

    Cape Town is not only battling a changing climate, but also a growing population…
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-21/cape-town-day-zero-drought-looms-despite-date-pushback/9468238

    20 Feb: IOL South Africa: Defeating Day Zero is in sight, says City
    The City says Day Zero, the day residents may have to start queueing for water, has now moved to 9 July.
    This is due to a weekly drop in dam levels of only 0.5% (as compared to a 1.9% drop in 2014).
    This week’s lower rate of consumption can be attributed to the Groenland water reaching Steenbras Upper Dam last week and slightly increasing the dam level, as well as to a further reduction in Cape Town’s weekly average demand to 523 megalitres per day (MLD) compared to 1 130 MLD in 2014.

    “Today I urge the residents of Cape Town not to ease up on their water-saving efforts”…

    Latest water dashboard (http://coct.co/water-dashboard/)

    · Day Zero: 9 July 2018 (was 4 June, 2018)

    · Dam levels: 24,4% (decline of 0,5%)
    https://www.iol.co.za/capetimes/news/defeating-day-zero-is-in-sight-says-city-13380794

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      yarpos

      and the rest of South Africa? we only hear about Capetown. Surely if this is climate change rather than population growth and an inert govt then isnt all of SA, if not all of Africa in water crisis? Is this like Australia where when we have a drought, these days we pretend its unprecedented and the new normal?

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    Kinky Keith

    Something we mustn’t let go without comment is the graph.

    Always remember that the green section when scaled to the main graph is under the 20 line in the bottom RH corner.

    It’s not only puny, it’s expensive.

    KK

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    TdeF

    An amusing piece on rural China in Brietbart

    .. along with ” cutting off poverty relief packages unless rural communities took down images of their Jesus and replace them with images of President Xi Jinping.” and trying to stop strippers performing at rural funerals

    “As part of the government’s environmental reforms, officials also reduced coal supplies to many areas, although later reversed this decision as many peasants were unable to afford or get access to natural gas and were freezing to death.”

    It’s not just Weatherill who does real damage to his State.

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    Dave in the States

    I notice that prices accelerated during the carbon tax period, then dropped temporarily. Then the acceleration started again. If I recall, didn’t your leaders sneak a replacement tax back in through a back door but not call it a carbon tax?

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      RickWill

      You are probably referring to the Renewable Energy Target. Abbott tried to get rid of it or reduce the target significantly. That did not happen. The target forces consumers to pay an increasing proportion of their electricity bill to wind and solar generators.

      Grid scale wind and solar generators get around $90/MWh for their LGCs and rooftop solar get round $40/STC for their STCs (there is a method of calculation that has some linkage to the potential energy production over a nominated life of the array. The nominated life is reducing by 1 year every year from 2015; meaning there will be no STCs after 2030.)

      The RET is not a tax. It is a transfer payment from consumers of fossil fuel electricity to producers of wind and solar energy. The government only sets the target market share for wind and solar generation. The target is rising each year to reach 20% by 2020. The LGCs and STCs are traded to set a price that encourages more wind and solar. The administration of the funds transfer is through the electricity retailers. The retailers are fined at a prescribed level by the government if they do not make the transfer payments. At times the fines are less than the cost of LGCs so makes economic sense to get fined.

      Simple!

      The RET is so complex that few people actually understand it. Even fewer people grasp how it is destroying the Australian economy.

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    Roy Hogue

    I do not know how I got on the mailing list of Nancy Pelosi, our dear San Francisco representative and resident lefty — well, I’ll be kind and not say it — but somehow I did. It must be good karma of some kind, I only live hundreds of miles south of her district.

    Anyway, it’s the left’s perennial complaint along with their perennial solution, renewables.

    Get a look at the picture she included. Doesn’t that just warm your heart to see all those windmills standing so tall?

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    • #
      Kinky Keith

      Hi Roy,

      I suspect that the photo may be of that field of 14,000 abandoned wind turbines which are doomed to blight the landscape forever because the contract didn’t include removal after use.

      KK

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        Roy Hogue

        KK,

        California has gotten so serious about this nonsense that I’m not willing to bet that these are abandoned and not working. We do have a few stands of the things that are standing there rusting away from more than 20 years ago.

        I will bet that eventually these will end up abandoned to rust and the obscurity of unremembered history while everyone averts his eyes when driving past them lest the foolishness of it all come crashing into his brain and cause a learning moment. You aren’t entitled to learn in this progressive world of renewable energy trouble.

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    Joe

    In addition, they came after the guns. Now the people will have a difficult time complaining.

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    gio

    I think there’s a typo in the image, at the bottom: Terra Watt hours. Should obviously be Tera.

    00