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Politicians “shocked” at the power crisis waiting in the Australian electricity grid

Did some politicans just wake up? The news today is that our Energy Minister may realize Australia is conducting a wild experiment with our electricity grid, and may have managed to convince other Australian federal politicians of the risk.

Coalition MPs shocked by energy threat

The Australian: Robert Gottleibsen (even Gottleibsen gets it).

When Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg walked into the Coalition party room with his energy policy earlier this week he faced a sea of hostile faces. But they left the room shocked. At last, the government politicians understood that Australia faces a long term blackout power crisis the like of which has never been seen in modern times.

It’s one thing to read commentaries warning of what is ahead but another to see a minister use confidential information from independent power authorities and regulators to show the desperate state of affairs that is looming for the nation. And then Frydenberg went to the ALP and showed them the same material.

Frydenberg was, if anything, even more alarming than me …  [says Gottleibsen who wrote about how the "Energy crisis risk is criminal. March 2017"].

Between 2012 and 2017 Australia has built 1,850MW of weather-linked “intermittent capacity” and only 150 MW of “dispatchable capacity”.

At the same time “dispatchable capacity” has been reduced with the closure of coal and gas fired power plants and the failure to maintain existing coal fired plants.

According to the Australian Energy Market Operator back in 2012-13 we had 20 per cent “reserve capacity”— power generation capacity above maximum demand. Currently that’s down to 12 per cent and if the Liddell power station is shut there will be a big shortfall. We therefore face the clear certainty of frequent and long blackouts in all our cities if we do not invest in “dispatchable capacity”.

This graph shows what a fantasy-land most Australian state governments exist in — look at the targets set in Queensland and Victoria. Look at how far gone South Australia is:

Renewables Generation, Australia, states, wind solar power, graph, 2017

State based penetration of solar and wind generation 2017

 

Gottleibsen doesn’t show this graph but here’s the SA Medium term outlook for the next two summers according to the AEMO:

Medium Term Outlook, SA, 2017, 2018, AEMO, electricity generation, supply demand, graph.

Predicted outlook for demand and supply of electricity in South Australia from Nov 2017 – November 2019.

The red bars are the reserve shortfalls predicted to occur in summer next year and the year after. In itself, that doesn’t mean there will be blackouts but it means that SA is likely to be completely dependent on the interconnector to the coal plants in Victoria and the risk of blackouts is higher. SA is not self-sufficient.

The renewables fans must be hoping for a minor La Nina here over summer, so the temperatures are not so high and the air conditioners in Adelaide won’t be pumping, and so the hydro dams may fill.

h/t Dennis.

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Politicians "shocked" at the power crisis waiting in the Australian electricity grid, 9.9 out of 10 based on 106 ratings

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240 comments to Politicians “shocked” at the power crisis waiting in the Australian electricity grid

  • #
    Ian1946

    This situation has been predicted by this blog and others such as stop these things. I expect the thick headed labor/green will ignore this warning.

    I detest socialism in any form but action needs to be taken now maybe by nationalisation of all electricity assets to ensure a reliable supply and the immediate cessation of the RET.

    432

    • #
      William

      I can pretty well assure you that if they are anything like the Fairfax bloggers, they will still be ignoring it while they sit in the dark. It is a dark place over there, they are convinced that coal is dead and that we should be moving rapidly to 100% renewables. When I said today that it will be interesting to see how things go in Germany when they stop the incentives and subsidies, one of the regulars there said that he is not aware of what is happening there, but the wind energy is very established there so it should be fine.

      The Fairfax blog pages are the ultimate green left echo chamber with only a handful of sane voices trying to penetrate the gloom.

      311

      • #
        Ted O’Brien.

        Is the ABC any different? When last I looked it was not.
        Are our seats of learning any different? That’s where it is all founded!

        240

        • #
          sophocles

          … and that’s where it has all foundered.

          100

        • #
          sophocles

          Ted O’Brien asked:

          Are our seats of learning any different?

          I would say there’s a little hope, right next door to the Federal Parliament, from Dr Dai Davies[pdf], a home-grown expert the U of Canberra, who alleges CO2 has an effect of about the order of 0.14°C … rendering RETs CETs Carbon Taxes and other knee-jerk posturing and panic irrelevant and unnecessary.

          Come back coal, all is almost forgiven!

          60

      • #
        Alfred

        I had a Fairfax subscription. They deleted my comments so I did not renew my subscription.

        140

        • #
          William

          They are publishing most of my comments ALfred – a few haven’t got through but sometimes when I try later, they get posted – possibly different moderators. I have just posted there so let’s see how that goes!

          50

      • #
        Ozwitch

        They might wake up when they realise their lattés are cold and they can´t charge up their electric cars.

        80

  • #
    Carl

    I’ve been a fan of Gottleibsen for decades. His articles on the F35 debacle are great. He lost the plot on Global Warming though. As a finance reporter he can see that renewables don’t work for power supply, but he was a trusting little lamb when the pseudo-scientists pulled their scam. I would have thought that after seeing all the scam artists like Alan Bond, Gottleibsen would have been wiser, but it was outside his expertise and he just trusted the scientists. Maybe one day he’ll realise that the same people who lied about how cheap and wonderful renewable energy is, are the same people who claimed Global Warming is the biggest threat to mankind.

    371

    • #
      Manfred

      The truly amazing thing /sarc is that trusting scientivism doesn’t cut it any longer, especially in an age when information is frequently so readily and widely available … and if it isn’t, that’s a substantive red flag in its own right. The trick is to know the questions to ask. To know those one has to actually study the counterpoint argument (and data), and perhaps, think a little, n’est ce pas? Tony’s understanding of ‘capacity factor’ is a case in point, indeed discussed by him recently. The predilection of UN eco-Marxist Globalism the climatism charade to rely on modelling is another.

      So,

      Maybe one day he’ll realise that the same people who lied about how cheap and wonderful renewable energy is, are the same people who claimed Global Warming is are the biggest threat to mankind.

      220

    • #
      Ted O’Brien.

      It’s not just the scientists that they trusted. They trusted the governments, and the “certainty” of legislated policy.
      A few months back both Robert Gottleibsen and Alan Kohler embarked in their columns in The Oz on a very noticeable campaign of support for renewable energy, sufficient to raise the question, why?

      Their writings suggested to me that they were in shock. And I already knew what might have shocked them.

      My guess was and is that they had researched the losses that would incur for investments in renewables since Al Gore’s/Clive Palmer’s (not Tony Abbott’s) RET was set in law should the RET be revoked, and discovered that not only would those losses be huge, but they would apply to many investments on which Robert and Alan had in good faith given professional advice.

      The convolution in the government’s new policy shows that protection of those investments has a very high priority in the government’s thinking. I don’t expect that this represents enough pushback to solve the problem.

      Robert’s about face tells me that he may have woken up to the AGW politics, and is responding to the protection offered in the policy announcement. But I very much doubt that this is enough.

      170

      • #
        Graeme#4

        I doubt that Alan K will see the light anytime soon though.

        70

      • #
        clive hoskin

        Almost ALL of our”Super”is invested in SOLAR and WIND power.That is why the Government will NOT get rid of these TAX’s which nobody nows about.For to do so,would mean they would have to admit that THEY got it WRONG.We are talking about BILLIONS of OUR dollars which this PONZI is costing US.OUR Government have been had by Al Gore and ALL our so called SCIENTISTS.This might be the first time in Australias history when a REVOLUTION may be about to happen.

        20

    • #
      Will Janoschka

      “Gottleibsen would have been wiser, but it was outside his expertise and he just trusted the scientists.”

      What scientists? Are you referring to the after 1960 post modern self appointed ignorant Marxist academic religious ‘doctorate’; with no ‘science’ whatsoever? (please help out with additional adjectives) :-)

      70

  • #

    The only thing that will shock a politician is an election result.

    330

    • #
      Albert

      I heard on the news last night that 10 coal fired power stations have shut down in the last 5 years, it’s worse than I thought

      130

    • #
      James Murphy

      Shock, yes, but do they try to learn from it?

      Not if Hillary Clinton, the Democrats, and Australian Labor (to name but a few) is is anything to go by…

      81

  • #
  • #

    Ho hum! There is nothing new in the World.

    I will link into an old Post of my own here, not to ask you to read it, but just to draw your attention to the image I posted at the bottom of this Post. The Post was one of my first ones on this subject, replacing existing coal fired power with new tech coal fired power.

    You can read it if you want to, but it’s an early attempt to get that point across, and of note here is the date I posted this, and that’s at the top of the Post there, July 2011, more than 6 years ago.

    However, scroll to the bottom and click on that image there and it’ll open in a new and larger window. I want you to notice the orange part of those bars on that bar chart there, and that signifies the additional Capacity (Nameplate) required to keep the grid in NSW operational.

    Be afraid, be very afraid.

    Then when you’ve looked at that bar chart and taken it in, note the date when it was compiled, shown under that chart, and it’s 2009.

    They have known there was going to be a shortfall for 8 years.

    CO2 Emissions Reduction – A Radical Plan

    Tony.

    Note to Joanne or moderators – Perhaps you might like to take a copy of the image and post it in the main body of the text to your Thread here.

    330

    • #
      Ian1946

      Tony,

      Are you able to let us know what the maximum generation capacity is for Queensland and Tasmania minus wind etc when all coal/gas/hydro units are running. I can the watch the AEMO dashboard to see when SA, NSW and Vic are going to be blacked out

      80

    • #
      Ted O’Brien.

      Tony. In February of 1980? From memory, the NSW Electricity Commission placed an order with Toshiba for six 660 mw generators, for Bayswater and Mt Piper, when they already had six such generators under construction.

      The justification for this order was the “oil shocks”, but I was cynical enough to imagine that graft and a liberal consumption of a mind altering substance might have been involved.

      The end result was that after people decided to dig up enough oil in the North Sea to negate the oil shock, NSW was left with a very big surplus generation capacity for many years.

      This could well still be bearing on thinking today, if modern managers do not understand how we got to where we are.

      111

      • #
        Robert Swan

        Ted, also from memory, around that time NSW had been courting the aluminium smelters and were ramping up capacity accordingly. Any notion of a deal for the smelters evaporated with the blackouts in ’79 (IIRC). The smelters took their business elsewhere and NSW ended up with a huge surplus of power. Nearly 40 years on and both outcomes have been “corrected” — no surplus power anywhere, and smelters are now treated as dispensable.

        70

  • #
    OriginalSteve

    They will be shocked when we sling them all out at the next election…and i mean all of them.

    Weak individuals ( i.e. those not worthy of holding public office and the adult-level responsibility there of ) will say they are shocked to cover up the reality they knew but didnt have the spine to actually do something….

    180

    • #
      AndyG55

      “and i mean all of them”

      To be replaced by what ????????

      91

      • #
        Dennis

        In 2010 Gillard Labor faced a hung parliament after the federal election, despite Rudd Labor in 2007 forming government with a healthy majority of seats. PM Gillard was forced into a minority alliance with outsider MPs government.

        Hopefully enough voters will ignore the two major sides in 2019 (assuming the government lasts until then) and another hung parliament results but next time with a larger gap to fill to form government. And therefore an alliance of conservative forces can form government including the Liberal and National MPs who are as concerned about the situation Australia is in as we are here.

        Recently former Liberal PM Howard expressed his concern about the energy crisis and also said that the original trial 2 per cent RET should not have been raised to 23 per cent by Labor. He also said, noting that he has the skills required to analyse past election results and trends that are used to predict future election outcomes, that historically the two major sides (Labor Green & Liberal National) attracted 80 per cent of voters between them, including swinging voters who swap sides from time to time. Howard believes that now only 60 per cent of voters support the major parties.

        Therefore, in my opinion, coupled to the unprecedented frustration and anger in the electorate, voters will reject the major parties in greater numbers and vote instead for emerging minor parties or independents who are patriots, major party MPs who are truly conservative and good local members and between them all a new government, a coalition of the willing, will be created to unravel the present mess.

        40

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        Basically any pollie who doesnt have the same agenda as the current grid-killing bunch…

        30

      • #
        Will Janoschka

        AndyG55 October 19, 2017 at 11:16 pm

        (“and i mean all of them”)

        “To be replaced by what ????????”

        By you Andy! We only need to get you dronk enough! :-)

        40

        • #
          AndyG55

          “We only need to get you dronk enough”

          Tonight.. I promise to work on it. :-)

          40

          • #
            Will Janoschka

            “Tonight.. I promise to work on it. :-)
            Do we have an AU “The Donald” trainee\acolyte?? Please remember to ‘not’ let your personal alcohol blood level get ‘dangerously low’! Done dat, got my t-shirt. :-)
            All the best!-will-

            00

      • #
        AndyG55

        Will, I have absolutely ZERO intent to go into politics.

        You, on the other hand would make a wonderful politician.

        Your sometimes incomprehensible posts make far more sense than Turnbull or Shorten. :-)

        60

        • #
          Will Janoschka

          “Your sometimes incomprehensible posts make far more sense than Turnbull or Shorten. :-)

          I wonder why such ‘incomprehensible’ is! :-)

          10

        • #
          Will Janoschka

          Turnbull et Shorten do nothing except attempt to continually scam pheasants\peasants\serfs for monetary or political gain. I’m trying! Is this still incomprehensible to us peasants? :-)

          30

    • #
      Kneel

      “…will say they are shocked to cover up the reality they knew but didnt have the spine to actually do something…”

      While I agree that this should never have happened, it’s also pertinent to point out that you may be expecting the impossible from politicians. What would you do / have done?

      Before you answer, consider that as a politician, there are considerable pressures on your time from many sources – not only do you need to consider the opinions of your electorate, but also party political opinions.
      You are called upon to make decisions on complex subjects with no easy answers in areas where you have no expertise and no time to fully investigate each issue – ATM, this includes immigration, SSM, climate, taxation, etc etc.
      You simply must rely on the opinion of experts. Remember too, that CSIRO, BoM, the Royal Society, the USA agencies like NOAA, NASA etc and academics who are said to be expert in the area of climate are all telling you that you must do something, and do it soon, or risk disaster – you know, 97% and all that.
      Yeah, I know the 97% is ridiculous, but that is what the pollies and the public hear. And the public is pushing you to “do something”, because they are hearing the same experts.

      Would you go against this “consensus” advise, or would you look at it and say “me too”?
      Would you change your mind when all of these experts are telling you that you are doing the right thing, that what you are doing is sustainable and making a difference and is on target to meet the requirements you got from them? That there was no problem? That this would make things cheaper for the public? That this would insulate the country from ransom by overseas suppliers of a commodity required to operate the economy?

      When the brown stuff hits the rotating thing, will you cop the blame for it, or will you say “But all the experts said…” and “But all the reviews said…?” and “I only did what the experts said I should” etc etc?

      And if you did run against the experts, and things went wrong with that, how badly would you suffer for that choice and would you blame anyone for pasting you for going against the experts?

      No, the safest bet for a politician is to avoid making a choice until the pressure is so great you have to. And then going with what most experts are telling you. This is what always happens and always will. Some small number will actually do the work required, but only if they have to, or only because they have enough knowledge in the area to have their BS detector go off. They won’t win the debate unless they have iron-clad, irrefutable proof that the experts are/were wrong, and even then, not always.

      81

      • #
        FarmerDoug2

        Jen Marohasy did a post on this culpability some years ago. Tim has to wear a lot of blame. He, and some mates, were paid to tell us the facts and they .. er.
        Doug

        50

      • #

        There were enough scientists in Australia saying this was a scam before the ‘Politicians’ ran with it.
        One of the political skills is to get advice from someone who actually understands any subject.
        Clearly Abbott went to Plimer and retirees from the BOM, who do not have to be responsible to anyone.
        Back in the 80′s the BOM thought that warming was caused by the sun, I know because I was briefed on it.
        What you say about the challenges of being across so many subjects is true, however needs to be managed.
        The problem with our crop of leaders is that they appear to lack skills across a broad range of issues as well as a lack of common sense.
        Malcolm is a true manager.
        He understands issues and attempts to manage them and the people.
        He does not appear to have strong views on anything particular.
        He would be better taking briefs or manufacturing widgets.
        A comfortable 9 to 5 job with lots of annual leave.
        He needs to articulate policies that assist us to work and raise our children and grand children.
        He lacks the energy of leadership.
        Even a lacklustre ‘drover’s dog’ will beat him.
        Solicitors should be able to work this out.
        Will Malcolm?

        70

        • #
          Will Janoschka

          “Even a lacklustre ‘drover’s dog’ will beat him.
          Solicitors should be able to work this out.
          Will Malcolm?”

          Perhaps the other Malcolm has done so.
          Not a good politician. Joanne’s David is much better, but seems to have little interest. Perhaps hunkering down, peering out from behind that bush, eating bush berries is still the best technique. :-)

          00

    • #
      clive hoskin

      From what Ive seen on both sides of the isle,the politicians with HALF a brain,you could count on both hands.Pathetic is being kind to them.

      10

  • #
    Another Ian

    Maybe the politicians might keep an eye on that other centre of real live experimentation in the joys of green energy – Ontario (or as locally spelt Ontar-Io)

    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/2017/10/wynneing-66.html#comments

    And link

    60

  • #
    Amber

    The politicians caused this crisis and they pretend to be “shocked” . The first sign of finger pointing and
    oh no that wasn’t me distancing . People should be [on trial] for absolutely screwing tax payers over a transparent [snip].
    How could they be shocked they drove the good ship Australia right on to the rocks . Kicking them out isn’t justice
    it’s mercy . They were fed BS they custom ordered and pushed .

    Australians aren’t wimps . Stop paying energy bills collectively till liberal preachers bring on
    far more base load power and reduce bills 50 % . Enough is enough . You can’t expect Australians to stand in barrel
    and not even wiggle while the big thinkers pee on them .

    Make Australia the best nation on earth again !

    140

    • #
      Dennis

      It still is, despite the socialism and self serving politicians, “The Lucky Country” that Donald Horne wrote about.

      Our problem is that our luck is running out faster than ever before.

      40

      • #
        yarpos

        His whole point was that our sucess was just blind luck in spite of second rate political and economic thinking. We have gone from second rate to wilful vandalism and stupidity. We let it happen so the consequences will be ours as will the cost of repairs.

        40

        • #
          sophocles

          We have gone from second rate to wilful vandalism and stupidity.

          … just wilful vandalism and stupidity on the part of Australian politicians alone. It’s been helped and encouraged by policy/policies articulated by The World Bank. They claim one of their goals is to end extreme poverty but their austerity policies seem to make it all worse. If you investigate the site, you will see they promote, push, proselitise and preach CAGW and encourage such stupidity with their lending.

          Why not? They make money out of it. Consider, too, it’s 51% owned by the American Treasury. Follow the money.

          The best source of governmental income is revenue from land in the form of land or resource rating/charges. It balances the economy and encourages good activity. Up to the end of WWII, both Australia and NZ governments drew much revenue from this source. The World Bank was established shortly after that war and now stomps the world openly working to remove such good methods of revenue sources. Why? Because it’s bad for American business. Take a close look at the American fast foods model out in the world. They are all large landowners, in many cases, drawing their money from rents, which is why the World Banks is so against landsourced revenue going to the government.

          Instead, it pushes for inflationary tax schemes to be able to plunder national economies through austerity pressures during the collapses wrought by their tax regimes. That’s how states sold off electricity generators and other strategic services.

          Unfortunately, this is all way off topic for here, but it’s one of the background fundamentals which has aided and encouraged this debacle.

          30

    • #
      KinkyKeith

      Just imagine as you suggest: say 10,000 households have a national month of mourning for “cheap, reliable power” and delay their payments for one month.

      Spark Up and join in the month of mourning.

      KK

      60

    • #
      Will Janoschka

      You can be right up there with the USA. Can we have the US cup back, please? You AU folk seem way behind in properly polishing the metal ‘silver’! :-)

      30

  • #
    Graham Richards

    Can’t wait for a really big power shortage/ failure. Can’t wait to see the anger of the Australian public. Can’t wait to see the pollies running around like chooks with severed heads.
    Can’t wait to see the bloodletting that follows.
    Maybe then we’ll all wake up & get rid of those bloody idiots in our so called governments. My ” waters” tell me the big event is not too far off!

    300

    • #
      William

      Wait for the spin though Graham, it will be all the fault of big coal. Perhaps something along the line that because of our reliance on coal and the failure to invest more quickly in renewables, the blackouts were inevitable. So yes it is evil coal that is to blame.

      240

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        At that point we need to speak up to our friends and work colleagues and carefully and gently explain where the problem truly is…. stuff will happen…

        40

      • #
        William

        Not sure who is following this, but as I expected, the Fairfax collective is blaming coal and the LNP for being ten years behind where we could have been. They are wilfully ignoring Germany – when I tell them what is happening there – and they are ten years ahead of us, it is like talking to children with their fingers in their ears saying over and over again, “I can’t year you”

        00

    • #
      Robdel

      I totally agree. The madness will hit home when the blackness hits homes. Politicians beware the wrath of the public.

      100

      • #
        Ted O’Brien.

        And what if the blackouts are avoided?

        You watch. This hasn’t occurred to them yet..

        Historically the providers wanted us to use more power. They billed at a high rate for initial usage, tapering off as usage increased.

        Reverse that policy, allocate so much usage at a low price, and ramp up the price as usage increases, and people will use less power. Sufficient to solve this year’s problem. The politicians will be back in control for a bit longer.

        80

    • #
      Ian Hilliar

      But the government will just redirect what power they have to the cities, to stop people dying in high rises, and the ABC and the MSM wont even notice…

      140

  • #
    cohenite

    I spoke to the boys at MacGen back in 2009; they reckoned it would take at least 10 years for the madness of alarmism, of which renewables are an intrinsic part, to filter through the Australian economy. A couple of prolonged blackouts may shorten that but the persistent stupidity of the MSM, politicians and the voting public will, if anything, extend that period.

    281

    • #

      Hmm! That would have been around the time they submitted the proposal to upgrade Bayswater, and Mt. Piper as well to USC eh!

      That went well!

      Tony.

      230

      • #
        cohenite

        Yep, this country is stupid.

        The greens are a blight.

        202

        • #
          OriginalSteve

          Yes this country is a bit dim ( our favourite show is Home and Away ) but the reality of blackouts will get peopkes blood up, and you dont want cranky australians…like trying to put spilt HF acid back in its bottle….

          102

  • #
    John Watt

    Maybe we need some tests for politicians equivalent to the citizenship tests. We should insist on a basic knowledge of science and business and an ability to problem solve. The lawyers, union graduates and glib tongued egotists have had a fair go. Simply convincing the party branch that you should be the candidate is no guarantee that you have anything useful to contribute to running the nation.

    180

    • #
      Lionell Griffith

      Simply convincing the party branch that you should be the candidate is no guarantee that you have anything useful to contribute to running the nation.

      That is just it. Politicians of any stripe, good, bad, or indifferent, should not be expected to run the nation because they cannot do it. Even the most honest, honorable, and best intentioned politicians can’t do it. The reason is simple.

      To do so means they must make the right decisions, for the right reasons, and act in time to accomplish the right goals. To do this, they need to have right information about everything and every one soon enough to be able to make the right decisions. This is impossible. They will always be behind with too little too late to do any good.

      Imagine if gathering the information were attempted from each citizen of the nation so the politicians can make the correct decisions about how to run your day. How many decisions do you make each day? 10,000, 100,000 or more? When do you ever have all the information to make the decision and know it will be correct? You hardly ever have that much information.

      You make the best decision you can and adjust what you do as new information becomes evident. In fact, most of the decisions you make are made and acted upon on the fly with modifications of the modifications happening thick and fast. This is what it takes to get through your day alive, intact, and able to continue.

      Now multiply that by the number of people in the nation. Then expect each individual to report to the central authority all the factors involved in making all those decisions soon enough that the politicians can make the decisions for you. You would be spending all your time reporting with nothing left over actually to do what it takes to get through the day. The politicians could only accumulate the data and have no time to make the trillions of decisions per day let alone communicate back their decisions to the population.

      Thus, a central national authority simply cannot run a nation. We the People are the only ones who can and we can only do that if we are free to run our own lives. Otherwise, the whole show gets run into the ground rather quickly.

      “But…but… I didn’t mean run everything when I said ‘run the nation’. I meant run the IMPORTANT things.”. What is more important than each individual being free to run his own life? Especially without having to ask “mother may I” to some ignorant busybody in government. With the busybody having no interest in your life other than exercising what little power he has.

      The function of a politician is to run the government and NOT the nation. The function of the government is to stop internal and external thugs from taking all your stuff and killing you. Based upon historical evidence, politicians are not very good at that let alone running the nation.

      180

      • #
        Leonard Lane

        Adaptive Management (AM)algorithms and programs have been understood and have been around for some time. They operate by continuously collecting and analyzing system input and output data and adjusting the later so that the output tracks nearer to the optimal values.
        This would seem a reasonable methodology to adopt to climb out of this mess. However you cannot let irrational and ignorant define the optimal outputs in terms of CO2, less population, or any of their other dystopian goals. They had their turn and you see it is infeasible.

        So how do you accomplish this in a democratic society/government? The voters must be informed, patriotic, and thus be non-leftist or any shade of Marxist. This can be accomplished by education and also from the school of hard knocks (blackouts, unemployment, etc.).
        The easiest way to do this is bar unions from public employees (they already get higher salaries and near iron-clad tenure so unions are redundant). Don’t give up, it can be done.

        41

        • #
          Leonard Lane

          “former not later” Sorry

          30

        • #
          Lionell Griffith

          I suggest you missed my point. They cannot possibly make all the decisions necessary for the best interest of each individual to be served. They have a hard time making a few decisions for everyone that works out for the better. Centralized decision making and forcing each individual to implement it simply does not work. Look at the situation we are in now. It is NOT WORKING!

          QED.

          Are you aware of the most fundamental law of control theory? The controller must have at least as much variety as the thing controlled. Which implies the controller must have a sufficiently detailed and correct simulation of how the thing to be control will behave under all possible circumstances. This fundamental law has the power and pervasiveness as the three laws of thermodynamics. If its requirements are not met, the the thing to be controlled cannot be controlled.

          Keep in mind, we are talking here of the government controlling each and every member of a nation of individuals each and every one of them are different in many ways. Their individual circumstances are also different in many way. So is there dreams, goals, and operations. There isn’t a computer large enough to run that simulation. If there were a computer large enough, it couldn’t compute the result in real time. Nor could it acquire the necessary information in real time. It will always be too late.

          The only solution that has ever worked and that has not resulted in despair, poverty, death, and destruction is for each individual to be free to make his own decisions and to reap the benefits of success or pay the price for failure. The reason is that only by this organization of things to you have enough variety to control the outcome to what is actually in the best interest for each individual being served.

          I know. You only want the government to control the IMPORTANT things but not everything. Who gets to choose what that important thing is?

          My choice is the government is to control the internal and external thugs who want to take my stuff and kill me so they can’t do it. Nothing else is necessary and nothing else will work without the government turning into a thug itself. Which, sadly, is largely what government as been since the first government.

          30

        • #
          Robert Swan

          Leonard Lane, a big problem with your suggestion of using feedback to make sure that output “tracks nearer to the optimal values”, is the sticky point of defining optimal. Would you trust the government (any government) to decide, say, the optimal level of CO2 emission? Sure, once decided, feedback can be used to home in on that target, but if it’s a dumb target, is that a good thing?

          The RET seems to be a daft target rather than a bad algorithm.

          20

          • #
            Lionell Griffith

            The government picking the optimum value will always pick more. More taxes, more power, more control, more intrusion into the lives of the people, more things that can be done only by permission, and last but not least more government. Just right is never enough. Enough is never enough. After that, still more until the nation collapses in to a pile of rubble and dead bodies.

            40

  • #
    Another Ian

    O/T AND ANOTHER SHOCK

    “FRENCH BACK OFF ON $50BN SUBS DESIGN”

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/blogs/andrew-bolt/french-back-off-on-50bn-subs-design/news-story/2f70304d9e2a802f29f77d296877d5b2

    Looking more like we’re getting bumboats rather than battleships

    80

    • #

      Not altogether off-topic, Ian. Turnbull and Pyne have done one of the worst deals in our history. It’s probably the worst when you consider the scale, though it has to compete with smaller masterpieces like the Port Kembla Wave Generator. (At least the Kembla rustbucket actually existed. The subs never will.)

      Staggeringly, this Turnbull is still Prime Minister of Australia. The biggest bar to unseating him is that he nearly lost the last election and has threatened to resign and collapse the government if there is a move against him. When the coalition goes then we will truly be a watermelon republic.

      It’s not that Abbott is good punt. He’s the only punt.

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    • #
      Chris in Hervey Bay

      Hey Ian, maybe a canoe or two ???

      40

  • #
    robert rosicka

    The only thing I find Shocking is that fraudenberg was shocked .

    70

    • #
      toorightmate

      Imagine how shocked they’ll be when their thick skulls finally realise that CO2 has nothing whatsoever to do with climate.

      201

      • #
        Dennis

        Don’t you mean “carbon pollution”?

        40

        • #
          TdeF

          Yes it has. The warmer the oceans get, the more CO2 is in the air. That’s school boy physics. Nothing to do with fossil fuels, which are miniscule and irrelevant. Again physics of equilibrium.

          The whole scam grew out of the environmental movement which has been utterly corrupted to a communist mantra. That is self evident in the policies of leftist governments. Anything to disrupt Western democracies, even if they have to invent their own pseudo science, which you are not allowed to question.

          90

      • #
        sophocles

        Give them each a complimentary copy of Dr Allmendinger’s paper. Those who can read will be very surprised to learn they’ve really been had, taken for a ride, with the concept of a “greenhouse gas.” They can do with being brought back to earth that it’s just a phantasm that a trace gas can be so magical.

        This is a tad off topic:

        I’ve tripped over this paper by William Sokeland [pdf]. I’m in the process of giving it its first reading, to see if it’s worth looking into more deeply.

        Note: my “first reads” are an uncritical pass through the whole paper to get its feel, then I’ll go over it again and check into what I find don’t like, and see if I can find validation for parts I do like. I’ve so far noted a couple of points I have issues with, and I’m sure I will find others …

        So far, it’s interesting and I’m sure some of the trogdolytes here will find it interesting, too, so I won’t spoil it for anyone just yet.
        It’s similar to, and possibly enhances or adds to Svensmark’s [2012] paper on evolution “Evidence of nearby supernovae affecting life on Earth”[pdf], The two could do with comparing and cross-checking.

        40

  • #
    RickWill

    The rise in demand in SA yesterday was a harbinger of things to come this summer. The temperature reached a modest 33C in Adelaide at 3pm.

    The demand on a cool sunny day when the solar is working but air-conditioners are idling has been as low as 640MW though the middle of of the day through the week and typically rises to around 1400MW at the evening peak.

    On the 18th the demand was much higher:

    SA1,2017/10/18 14:00:00,1466.41,125.31,TRADE
    SA1,2017/10/18 14:30:00,1513.47,112.11,TRADE
    SA1,2017/10/18 15:00:00,1576.29,123.44,TRADE
    SA1,2017/10/18 15:30:00,1636.21,167.57,TRADE
    SA1,2017/10/18 16:00:00,1752.84,151.21,TRADE
    SA1,2017/10/18 16:30:00,1763.05,124.39,TRADE
    SA1,2017/10/18 17:00:00,1883.35,247.36,TRADE
    SA1,2017/10/18 17:30:00,1903.79,165.51,TRADE
    SA1,2017/10/18 18:00:00,1877.84,129.95,TRADE
    SA1,2017/10/18 18:30:00,1857.98,129.02,TRADE
    SA1,2017/10/18 19:00:00,1795.94,126.11,TRADE
    SA1,2017/10/18 19:30:00,1807.64,121.07,TRADE
    SA1,2017/10/18 20:00:00,1793.49,96.71,TRADE
    SA1,2017/10/18 20:30:00,1719.07,94.89,TRADE
    SA1,2017/10/18 21:00:00,1615.36,71.90,TRADE
    SA1,2017/10/18 21:30:00,1540.37,68.64,TRADE
    SA1,2017/10/18 22:00:00,1453.63,64.15,TRADE

    As you see it was at 1530MW at 14:30 and hit 1903MW during the evening peak. The price rocketed to $247/MWh. This suggests the air-conditioning and refrigeration demand in SA is a dominant demand factor. SA is fast destroying its base load so it is only left with peaky air-conditioning demand that does not typically match the wind generation. Apparently the solar generation does not offer a lot of well timed generation either as it is not contributing much at 17:30. The solar may make the peak a little later but the air-conditioners are still working hard as people get home from work and decide it would be nice to cool the house down.

    Imagine what it will be like when the temperature gets to 40C and the wind is not blowing. AEMO show shortfalls as early as November in SA. That seems realistic given these early signs. The firm capacity in late November is shown as 2200MW and it is quite easy to see the demand getting above this. There will be a lot of people in SA hoping that the hot air is transported by a steady wind.

    Power outages in SA this summer will be another reality check that is better for the economy sooner than later.

    It would be useful to know how much new air-conditioning capacity has been installed in the last 12 months. Schools are gradually installing air-conditioners and the majority of people at least work in an air-conditioned environment these days. The pallet loads of air-conditioners that were rolled out this week are disappearing from the local Bunnings store as the temperature nudged above 30C.

    190

    • #
      DaveR

      As soaring power prices hit on the hot days this summer, Vic premier Andrews is going to have to see if he can shut down the Muyrraylink interconnector to SA and keep the power in Vic for the states’ own use. The free market operation of power assets will come under more focus. And SA will be thrown to the wolves.

      60

    • #
      yarpos

      Probaly the worst thing that could happen now is a mild summer, Weatherdill re elected and the can kicked down the road another 12 months.

      Rather than a/c capacity installed in the last 12 months, I would be interested in the capacity of home generators bought in that period.

      30

  • #

    If Gottliebsen gets it then that means an aphid gets it. So Frydenberg had better get it.

    I spoke with well-off city friends the other day. They are planning to use as much power as possible, not to be selfish but because it’s better to crash the system sooner rather than later. I don’t think they’re the only ones thinking this way. Cooperating with Big Green just means more of the same.

    Short of rioting, what else can one do? There are more wind turbines (hence diesel generators) on the way, the Musik Man’s batteries are real and apparently not the juvenile leg-pull one thought they had to be, Turnbull’s Snowy plan is ready to take its place in history beside pink batts and New Coke…

    Really, how else do you stop these people but by using as much power as possible as soon as possible?

    By the by, I’m a conservationist type, retired, who likes native bush, public transport, alternative tech etc. If I feel this way about Green Blob and its globalist carpetbaggers and slave-media boosters, how does Josh reckon most punters feel? The ones with kids to get off to school, dental bills to pay and multiple jobs to get to.

    Well Josh?

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    • #
      robert rosicka

      They have earth day , I propose a day in summer when temps are close to 40 we turn on every electric appliance we have ! Not sure what to call it yet but I’m sure we wouldn’t be breaking any laws .

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      • #

        Sorta,’ kinda’ like hip pocket nerve, robert rosicka?

        Serf musings … (?)

        Guv-uh-mints love to do subsidies,
        5/10 year plans, great leaps, supposedly,
        forward. Guv-uh-mints, with stars in their eyes,
        ‘hey there,’- or dollars, like to do klepto-
        or philosopher-king make-overs of societies,
        sans doubt, sans feed-back-loops, it’s E.U.
        all the
        …way
        … … down.

        60

      • #
        RickWill

        GST Day – Grid Stress Test

        70

      • #
        William

        Tim Blair at the Sydney Telegraph (his blog is seriously excellent) runs an annual “Hour of Power” to counter Earth Day. He encourages his readers to send in photos of their excessive energy use preferably emitting lots of evil carbons!

        90

      • #
        yarpos

        pick a date robert , I will play

        10

    • #

      mosomoso, off topic I know,

      By the by, I’m a conservationist type, retired, who likes native bush…..

      In the RAAF, they were notorious for giving engraved pewter beer steins as going away presents when you were posted, and I still even have a couple of them, the most cherished from when Gough killed off 76 Squadron.

      At the ‘school’ at Wagga Wagga, they tried to get out of the habit, so they would ask you what you wanted. When i was posted, i asked for a Macquarie Encyclopedic Dictionary, and got some weird responses. Still use it almost on a daily basis. Huge book.

      When I was posted from Exam Flight, I asked for, and got Australian Native Plants, the Wrigley and Fagg masterpiece go to for Oz native plants. Mine’s only the 3rd Edition dating from 1991, but it’s still in print, many times updated. Use that often also.

      Incidentally, when my Father In Law passed, he asked me what I would like. He left me his Seiko Quartz, which he got in 1978, and it still gets worn when I go out, now almost 40 years old, and keeping perfect time. the second thing I asked for was his Webster’s Collegiate Dictionary, an illustrated dictionary dating from 1941, an absolutely beautiful book, used often to trace old words which have fallen out of use. It’s even thicker than the Macquarie. Kids can have their phones, Give me a book, every time.

      Tony,

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      • #
        Another Ian

        Tony

        IMO the ultimate English dictionary is

        The Oxford English Dictionary.

        Problem is for the one with readable print you need about ten feet of shelf and they keep adding to it. There used to be a smaller version that came with a magnifying glass so you could read the print.

        61

    • #
      KinkyKeith

      Fat finga.

      Meant to be a green.

      20

    • #
      PeterS

      I agree. If they expect me not to turn on the a/c on hot days this summer then they have another thing coming. I refuse to be told we must live like a 3rd world country to cover up the terrible mistakes by our politicians. If we are to have blackouts as a result then so be it. That way more people will take notice. More importantly, businesses will then have to wake up too and demand the government fix the problem or else theraten to walk away and leave Australia in a deep economic crisis. The only way we can fix it is to somehow get started down the road of building new generation coal fired power stations just as the rest of the world is already doing. Otherwise, we will be left further and further behind until one day we will find ourselves in complete ruin.

      80

      • #
        Graeme No.3

        PeterS:
        What you should do if possible is start your airconditioner early in the morning when the outside temperature is lowest. This makes the airconditioner more efficient. Once the house is cool either shut down the airconditioner or put it on economy mode, depending how quickly your house warms up. If you can mostly shut your house up during the day and it is slow to warm even better. There is still the problem of the evening peak hours to get through and I suppose all you can do is gamble on no blackout.

        One comment on airconditioner use; the big commercial premises will have near constant use. Shopping malls will draw more in hotter weather as will supermarkets but the big change will be at schools which are vacant for most of Dec. and Jan. The hot weather in Adelaide is bearable if you are outside in the shade with a breeze blowing, but if the humidity rises, as it often does in Feb. and March, then air-conditioning is needed. So if a burst of 30-35℃ warm and very humid weather comes down from the NW then blackouts are very likely just before the election, and voters will be sweating on Weatherill going. Come on Broome, send us your worst!

        50

  • #
    Graeme#4

    I believe Mr. Gottliebsen is wrong in two areas:
    1. The SA blackout time sequence is wrong. As shown here on this website at the time of the blackout, the towers fell down AFTER the Heyward interconnector has shut down, not before as a certain premier keeps saying. So the blackout conditions were underway before, not after, the tower failures. It’s only a small time difference, but it means that the tower failures played no part in initiating the blackout.
    2. Surely hydro storage and batteries are NOT dispatchable power? They are only lossy storage systems and play no part in actually generating power. Tony, please correct me if I’m wrong here.

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    • #
      Graeme No.3

      Graeme 4 from a lesser Graeme.

      The gullibles want it all ways. The wind was so forocious that it blew down transmission lines but not so strong as to force the turbines to shut down. Well about 400W of wind generation dropped out and overloaded the interconnector. The rest followed. And if the turbines were running in a strong wind with high generation why was the interconnector running flatout IMPORTING power from Vic. Might it have been that the gas fired generators were off line as unprofitable?
      The transmission lines were blown over not down, the difference is that the wind force acted as a lever and the legs with their (small) concrete plugs were pulled out of the ground because it was saturated after lots of rain. This is obvious just looking at the photos.
      In the fine print the grid operator wanted to increase its charges slightly to pay for upgrading those transmission lines but were twice denied by the State Govt. which now denies that it caused anything.

      30

      • #
        Another Ian

        Graeme No 3

        Southern Cross windmills have three legged towers.

        IIRC the guarantee was along the lines of “if your foundations hold so will our tower”

        Seems those old time engineers had forgotten more than most of the current ones will ever know. Like old time thermometer readers too I guess.

        50

      • #
        Graeme#4

        I thought that the bulk of the wind generators shut down because they were programmed to do so at a wind setting that was set too low? Also when I looked at the transmission line chart that was impacted by the tower failures, I believe this line was inland, away from the wind generators, which made me think that it was not the transmission line connected to those generators.
        WRT to the gas generators, my understanding was that the bulk of them were not fired up, thus not producing much power at the time of the blackout. One of these days I’m going to have to re- visit Jo’s blogs at the time of the blackout and re-check what happened. I think it’s important to ignore what a certain dill keeps saying, and also parroted by our fabulous ABC.

        20

    • #
      yarpos

      meh, dispatchable in as much as they are knowable and can be used with certainty, maybe not in this country for 24×7 power outside Tas (barring drought and management stupidity)

      20

  • #
    OriginalSteve

    Lots of crying into the pillow going on here by the battery industry…

    Think of all those batteries not required because the grid is stable again…boo hoo….oh dear what were we thinking getting our house in order…?

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2017-10-19/concern-energy-policy-will-stymie-growth-in-battery-storage/9061948?pfmredir=ms

    70

  • #
    robert rosicka

    Totally off topic but just outside and seen something I’ve never noticed before , three different level clouds .
    Top and bottom layers heading south but the middle layer heading east .
    Looking to the south the sky looks like it’s about to let loose a biblical flood .

    51

    • #
      KinkyKeith

      Calm down Robert.

      It’s called Nature.

      KK

      40

    • #
      toorightmate

      Robert,
      This phenomenon is entirely due to the increased presence of CO2 in the atmosphere – no further correspondence will be entered into.

      70

    • #
      David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

      G’day Robert,
      If that caused the rain I’m getting right now, on top of 14mms overnight, I’ll say thank you. And the wind is just strong enough to move the lighter foliage on the trees.
      AND, the rain is consistent with forecast!!
      Cheers,
      Dave B

      30

  • #
    Mark M

    The first thing that should be turned off now is the air-conditioning in parliament house.

    120

  • #
  • #
    pat

    o/t but just to show politics is crazy elsewhere:

    19 Oct: Scoop NZ: (Winston Peters New Zealand First) Chooses Labour as Coalition Partner
    Peters indicated he had been offered the position of Deputy Prime Minister and a number of other ministerial posts would go to his colleagues…
    He said economic and monetary policy changes were needed to face a coming economic downturn.
    Peters said too many people had come to see capitalism as its foe and not its friend and this had to change…
    “We believe that capitalism must regain its responsible, its human face. That’s why in the end we chose a coalition government of New Zealand First with the New Zealand Labour party.”…

    Labour Leader Jacinda Ardern: “The Green Party is now undertaking its internal approval process before we confirm final arrangements to form a Labour-led progressive Government. This too has been an excellent process, which I thank James Shaw and his team for…
    The Greens had been offered ministerial portfolios. These and policy agreements would be released in due course.
    Green Leader James Shaw confirmed his party would support the new Government on confidence and supply. It would hold four ministerial portfolios out of Cabinet…
    http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL1710/S00023/peters-chooses-labour-as-coalition-partner.htm

    VIDEO: 19 Oct: TVNZ: ‘This is an historic day for the Green Party, and our movement’ – Jubilant James Shaw on getting likely role in new government
    It appears that for the first time, the Greens will hold ministerial portfolios.
    https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/historic-day-green-party-and-our-movement-jubilant-james-shaw-getting-likely-role-in-new-government

    ***CAGW is not one of the 16:

    18 Oct: NewsHubNZ: Lloyd Burr: The ***16 policies NZ First and the Greens disagree on
    http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/election/2017/10/the-16-policies-nz-first-and-the-greens-disagree-on.html

    20

  • #
    Hasbeen

    déjà vu all over again. Just like it was in the late 40s when we got back to Sydney after the war.

    Sydney was short of generation capacity, & we had dinner time blackouts a couple of times a week, when it was our turn.

    I got used to doing my homework by kerosene light, just as my father had done in the first/second decade of the 20Th century.

    This could become a generational thing for my younger grand kids. What a brilliant society we are.

    120

  • #
    Peter Q

    Nice to be in WA where networking power is not so practical and we are not dependent on, say, SA or NT to fill the gap. Not that we aren’t heading down the same path, especially since we voted in a bunch of Labor plonkers.

    70

  • #
    Antoine D'Arche

    What the f&^% do the MPs read if this is a shock?????
    This has been foreshadowed for YEARS!!!
    They have access to very smart people, at our considerable expense.
    I want a list of the names of Liberal Party MPs that were shocked by this information – they are ALL guilty of GROSS INCOMPETENCE and NEGLIGENCE.
    If I ran my practice like they run their Govt/ Cabinet/ Party/ Parliament I would be in prison for manslaughter.

    150

    • #
      KinkyKeith

      Well said Antoine.

      40

    • #
      Chad

      I dont think you understand politicians Antoine,…
      They “say” they are shocked, only because that is what is on their script sheet for today !
      Tomorrow, they will be ” outraged” or ” dismayed” about something completely different that they know nothing about. ,
      They are all muppets with no independent thoughts.

      60

    • #
      Lionell Griffith

      ALL politicians are incompetent and negligent to do what they are expected to do. They are given the power to unleash almost unlimited coercive force upon the the nation to fulfill the slightest whim. So that is what they do. It won’t and can’t work for the betterment of the nation no matter the quality of the politican.

      See my post at 11.1 for further details.

      40

  • #
    Ruairi

    Australia’s politicians must act,
    And quickly wise up to the fact,
    That base loads must rely,
    On a constant supply,
    To keep every state grid intact.

    160

  • #
    PeterS

    So many of us have known the truth for so long now. As typical with most people it takes an “in your face” crisis to wake people up. Let’s hope it’s not too late to turn things around and join the rest of the world by building several new generation coal fired power stations very soon. If enough in the Liberal party know how serious all this is, they better shake up Turnbull to make him act very soon. If he doesn’t produce real actions as distinct from mouthing words as he normally does, then they better get a new leader before this nation sinks into an economic crisis under Turnbull’s watch. Also watch out for a surprise from Shorten. He might, just might be smart and announce a policy to build the new coal fired power stations and beat Turnbull to the punch. Now that would really destroy the LNP, and so they should be for various reasons. Perhaps it’s wishful thinking on my part, and it probably is given the ALP are so thick headed, but let’s wait and see. I think the elephant in the room is now creating enough fuss even the dumbest and thickest can’t ignore. The Greens are excluded though as they will never change. I look forward to the day they become extinct.

    70

  • #
    pat

    ABC takes a partisan approach as usual, and leaves mention of “Tasmanian energy security” – real or fanciful – until the final sentence:

    19 Oct: ABC: Rhiana Whitson: Legal action against Basslink to recoup energy crisis costs unlikely
    Hydro Tasmania is indicating legal action to help recoup costs from the state’s energy crisis nearly two years ago is unlikely, but has not ruled it out.
    The energy crisis was triggered by the failure of the Basslink cable that connects Tasmania to the national electricity grid, combined with a shortfall in Hydro Tasmania’s dam levels.
    Tasmanians are none the wiser about how much of the approximately $180 million spent on mitigating the crisis has been recouped, and now it is uncertain whether Hydro Tasmania will ever try to get money out of Basslink through legal action…

    Last year the Treasurer and former energy minister Peter Gutwein(Liberal) pulled out of an appearance at a parliamentary inquiry into the energy crisis, citing escalating legal action between Hydro and Basslink.
    But (leader of the Opposition Rebecca White – Labor) said the court action had not gone ahead.
    “My belief is that Hydro do have an obligation along with the Government to share quite clearly how much the energy crisis cost Tasmanians, and what the cause of that fault was in the Basslink cable,” she said.
    Greens MP Rosalie Woodruff agreed…

    Hydro’s latest annual report reveals the company posted a $20 million profit for the last financial year, after recording a $65 million loss the previous year.
    The report also revealed Hydro’s executive team was paid $369,000 in bonuses…
    Luke Crowley from the Professionals Australia union, which is negotiating a new wage and conditions deal for Hydro staff, said he was surprised by the figure.
    “They have been telling us that it is all about keeping things slow, and they have to abide by the Government’s 2 per cent pay cap,” he said.
    “And now we are reading the execs are being paid more than that — not just in wages but in incredible bonuses as well.”
    A spokesman for Hydro Tasmania said all staff received performance bonuses when the company recorded a profit.

    ***Mr Davey said in the report the business was well placed to to help lock in Tasmanian energy security, and achieve the lowest possible power prices.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-10-19/no-hydro-tasmania-legal-action-yet-over-energy-crisis-losses/9067140

    20

    • #
      Annie

      I seem to remember something was said about the Basslink being overloaded sending hydro power to Victoria, which helped to cause the failure. It also left Tasmania short of hydro power which they blamed on rainfall shortage…a Tasmanian wrote somewhere (on here I think) that the winter rainfall had actually been pretty normal. The storages had been run down for the sake of ‘earning’ extra money.

      60

      • #
        amortiser

        If I remember correctly, Victoria was paying a premium for “clean” power so the hydro rubbed its hands and ramped up the generators to take advantage of the deal and made a killing.

        In doing so they seriously depleted the levels of their dams and wouldn’t you know it they then had a drought and the interconnector failed.

        Things were getting pretty grim and the government spent copious amounts on diesel generators to tide them over. When the clouds did form the government decided to seed them to maximise rainfall in the catchments. This resulted in a massive flash flood which caused enormous damage.

        We should not forget that it was the greens who stopped the Gordon below Franklin hydro development back in the mid eighties which really started the massive decline in Tasmania’s economic fortunes. What they did to Tasmania they are now hellbent on doing to the rest of the country. It will wake up when the lights go out but then the damage will have been done.

        70

      • #
        Peter C

        I requested Basslink to tell me why the power cable failed.

        They never replied.

        30

        • #
          AndyG55

          I know from a reliable source that it was an overload issue, causing overheating at a slightly damaged joint in the cable.

          50

  • #
    Richard Ilfeld

    If there is an alternative information outlet in Australia, they should be
    doing a documentary in Puerto Rico. A population, first world, similar in size to South Australia,
    lost its generation, and much of its grid. Grid restoration has proceeded apace, but generation proves problematic.
    60-90 day for emergency package plants of 60MW nameplate 50MW in service to be delivered, set up and powered. There aren’t
    many of these in the world ready to go, and they fill emergency and essential needs, as they replace 10-30%.
    PR has, reportedly, the highest density of personal generators in the world–and cords snaking from house to house sharing
    juice for refrigerators and other essentials. The storm was as effective as dynamiting a working coal plant, tho no sane person
    would ever do that. And we are just beginning to realize the depth of lost trust in authority that this debacle has engendered.
    When the government claims the power grid from the private sector, as happened in Puerto Rico, then manages it to financial failure and unacceptable risk, very bad things happen when the risked event happens.

    90

    • #
      Mary E

      My understanding of the issue in PR is the poles and lines were taken out by the storm – what the hurricane didn’t blow over the trees took out. The power station(s) still work, but there is no way to get power to much of the country. Generation is NOT the problem. Never really has been. It’s the failure of the power company, accused of mismanagement, to maintain the grid and install & maintain proper poles and lines. Family in PR, in the country, has had generator back-up for years, at least a week’s supply of diesel on hand, for when high winds, storms or accidents take out power lines.

      10

  • #
    Reed Coray

    The renewables fans must be hoping for a minor La Nina here over summer, so the temperatures are not so high and the air conditioners in Adelaide won’t be pumping, and so the hydro dams may fill.”

    Who’d ever have thought that the “renewables fans” would be cheering for a cool/wet summer? That would spoil their string of “hottest year evah! I knew mother nature had a sense of humor but nothing on this scale.

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  • #
    Roy Hogue

    Even at some risk of repeating myself, which I suppose is the easy way out, I’ll have to say…

    Surprise, surprise, surprise.

    30

    • #
      Yonniestone

      Nice one Gomer. :)

      30

      • #
        Roy Hogue

        You don’t know even half of what I would like to say. But I don’t stick myself very far into Australian politics because I don’t liver there.

        I see us, in particular, California, going down that same road and I’m angry beyond words. :-(

        None of what I just said is aimed at you, Yonni. :-)

        20

  • #
    Nick Werner

    As much as you may want to, you can’t shock a politician if the power goes off.

    100

  • #
    dp

    I say this tongue in cheek, but thank you, Australia, for doing everything within your power to make America great again. By sabotaging your industrial capacity through punitive energy rates and reliance on unreliable energy you have effectively removed Australia’s competitive strength from the group of first world nations.

    With that piece of hyperbole aside I’m actually saddened that Oz and her great people are suffering under such poor leadership. Hopefully it can be turned around before the economies of scale fall to an unrecoverable level.

    160

    • #
      rk

      dp,
      Your words are so true. But your oil position is not as great as everyone over there thinks with shale oil now starting to fall in volume per length of horizontal well drilled, across all shale basins including the Permian and all other fields are depleting. At least your country produces around 50% of it’s consumption whereas here in Australia we produce around 270,000 barrels per day and falling but consume 1,180,000 per day. Not a great position to be in with four small aging refineries and a lot of our refined products now coming from South Korea and Japan. crudeoilpeak.info/almost-half-of-australias-petrol-diesel-and-jet-fuel-imports-come-from-south-korea-and-japan

      The real problem Australia and the USA has is there is a lot less oil in the Middle East than reported. The data base on Saudi Arabia’s 58 producing fields show their real reserves are now below 31 billion barrels, not the 266 billion they say. This comes from the World Giant Oil and Gas Field data report from the American Association of Petroleum Geologists in Houston. This covers the 1046 giant fields of the world – there are many reports now out of the oil industry saying 2020 will be when we can expect to see oil shortages and much higher prices because of the shortfall in exploration and oil field expenditure of over a Trillion dollars in the last two years – caused by the low oil prices. Will go well with power blackouts won’t it?
      A report here from HSBC has some interesting data on this which backs up this https://www.research.hsbc.com/R/24/vzchQwb

      20

      • #
        Will Janoschka

        “Your words are so true. But your oil position is not as great as everyone over there thinks”

        True! Nuclear ‘fission’ can still power society for a long while. Nuclear ‘fusion’ may power ‘OH WOW weapons’, but nothing for polite society! Back to us serfs oxidizing camel dung, as the self appointed overseers wish, to “save the world”, for their benefit!
        Oh woha are we!-will-

        10

        • #
          crakar24

          Is it truly possible to run out of oil? It rains methane on Titan and obviously the sun must burn something. To think oil comes from dead animals it astonishingly closed minded thinking.

          30

          • #
            sophocles

            obviously the sun must burn something

            … mainly hydrogen and helium.
            The other elements from Lithium to Iron are present in only trace quantities, just like CO2 and methane are present in the terrestrial atmosphere as trace gases.

            (trace = too small a quantity to do anything at all.)

            However, the sun doesn’t do any IPCC style magic. It doesn’t burn coal or oil.

            Good enough? :-)

            10

          • #
            John F. Hultquist

            “… from dead animals …”

            Some animals are exceeding greasey, such as some geese. But I wonder what you were thinking of?

            20

          • #
            Will Janoschka

            “To think oil comes from dead animals it astonishingly closed minded thinking.”

            Perhaps! This refined ‘suff’ still makes the finest high temperature, high pressure, lubricant ever. Beats Mobile One 20:1. Comes only from God provided dead greasy animals. To use such for ‘fuel’ is but an “atrocity”. Please oxidize camel dung for fuel\heating, as was intended! :-)
            Coking coal is needed to reduce every useless metal oxide to very useful ‘metal’. Soon Earth’s ‘humans’ must be replaced by earth Roaches having much better ‘organization’! :-(

            30

  • #
    David Maddison

    The only shocking thing is that they managed to install 150MW of non-weather-dependent generation.

    What is the nature of it? Diesels?

    61

  • #
    David Maddison

    The situation is so serious that politicians must be held legally to account. I’m not sure what can be done though. My lawyer friend says it would not be possible to try them for treason.

    41

  • #
    David Maddison

    Another Aussie milestone! We just achieved $750 billion government debt.

    http://www.australiandebtclock.com.au/

    81

  • #
    David Maddison

    Just like Australian Parliament.
    https://youtu.be/0znNiN0lYAQ

    31

  • #
    Lance

    Come Jan 2018, it appears a shortfall of 600-800 MW will occur.
    Unless load is shed, that is a guaranteed blackout situation.
    Industrial users on interruptable delivery contracts ought take notice now and plan accordingly as they will most certainly be shed without warning.

    This seems to be where the “Be careful what you wish for…” runs smack into reality.

    Sad to see it come to this. So very avoidable and unnecessary.

    90

  • #
    David Maddison

    O/T

    I was just chatting to my anesthetist friend and he said one of his most favoured and useful agents is desflurane (1,2,2,2-tetrafluoroethyl difluoromethyl ether).

    This is under attack from the Green Left as well due to it being a supposed greenhouse gas and some are trying to get this and similar gases banned.

    The insanity never ends. We have a long way to go before reaching Peak Stupid.

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    • #
      James Murphy

      Des Flurane sounds like a man who would know a thing or two about horse racing.

      50

    • #
      PeterS

      It is time for all Australians to recognise how dangerous the Greens really are. Yes, I do not recognise the Greens as Australians. They are anything but. In fact they are our enemy in so many ways.

      100

      • #
        David Maddison

        I still hate the Australian Communist Party, even after they changed their name to The Greens.

        82

        • #
          robert rosicka

          You’re not confusing the Labor party for the greens for the liberals for the Xenophobia party are you .

          00

  • #
    Another Ian

    O/T Another gold standard of the greenery in decline

    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/2017/10/the-sound-of-se-596.html

    And comments

    40

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      O/T and credit for Jaymo on there but

      “Hey, and don’t forget, just 71 days until the Maldives disappear. This projection based on a 1988 UN report that states, categorically that the Maldives will disappear in 30 years (Jan 1, 2018) due to the impact of Global Warming and rising sea levels.”

      Will we have a disappearance day for the Maldives? Might be inconvenient for all those planes on those new airfields.

      81

      • #
        amortiser

        Anyone got a link to that UN report. That’s a cracker. Predict disaster in 30 years and then push it out to 2100 – another 82 years. Their forcings for CO2 concentrations just took a big hit!!

        30

  • #
  • #
    robert rosicka

    The Canberra times has a cartoon of some kids playing in an old broken and abandoned early model Holden along with the words “if only they could have worked out how to power it with coal” .
    Actually if electricity generation was left to coal and the commie states had of reigned in the unions we still may have had a car industry .

    60

  • #
    • #
      PeterS

      If anyone is surprised they must have been living under a rock and they only have just come out from under it.

      40

    • #
      Another Ian

      Well now we can calculate the lifetime of that Turnbull brainfart.

      Was it a personal best?

      Was it an Unprecedented Australian Record for a politician? (Seems like much stronger competition for that though)

      20

  • #
    Lance

    There’s a Wizard fellow in the UK who has identified exactly the type of electrical power desired by the Greens.

    Happy Power: http://www.happytoast.co.uk/Images/Anims/TN_Anim_73.jpg

    10

  • #
    Richard

    “Shocked”. Yeah. Right.

    This reminds me of how US Congress people are always “shocked” at the size of the budget deficit, despite the fact that they created it, and continue to enlarge it.

    40

    • #
      PeterS

      So true. Another way to see it, or not as is the case, is to refer to the tale of the “The Emperor’s New Clothes”. The longer the scam continues the greater the risk for the perpetrators, which is why they also want to take our freedoms away to try and control us in ways not even George Orwell would have dreamed about. Of course we have to strike a balance – we don’t want to let it go for too long otherwise our economy will be destroyed and lives lost through various means. I think most of us agree it has been going for far too long already but be patient. I suspect we need some more time for the screws to be turned on harder on the people to wake them up with an even greater shock. The trouble though the MSM is one candidate that needs to be woken up with a massive shock, one that would destroy a normal person.

      30

    • #
      Another Ian

      Richard

      Proof that they were asleep in the house at the time

      20

  • #
    Lance

    Evidently, I don’t know how to provide a functional link. It does actually work if cut and pasted into a tab.
    Not sure why it won’t link “as is”. Oh well.

    30

  • #
    David Maddison

    Australia may well avoid grid failure because the shortfall of weather-independent power production is being closed due to industrial shutdowns. The only question is if liberation of power due to industrial shutdowns caused by high power prices will happen faster or slower than the shortfall of weather-independent power is being created.

    51

    • #
      PeterS

      Just like climate modeling, it partly depends on the feedback. However, I believe it’s better to keep things simple. Given we are not replacing our weather-independent power generation systems, which by far are our most critical and important sources of power, namely coal fired power stations, then it’s moot as to how quickly we have a repeated and consistent catastrophic failure of our grid resulting in an economic collapse. What should happen before that is enough people in authority to wake up and act accordingly to make sure we have the new generation coal fired power stations built before the catastrophe develops. The only question that really needs to be asked is when will they act, not if? Time is running out fast.

      60

    • #
      RickWill

      I have a post #14 above suggesting the SA demand has a large component of air-conditioning and refrigeration. I suspect that the take up of this very peaky load will outstrip the reduction in base load this year.

      The summer peak demand in SA hit 3400MW in summer 2010/11. Despite the rapid increase in rooftop solar in SA from then the summer peak demand has remained around 3300MW in the last few years. The peak yesterday was only 1240MW. So there is a huge difference in demand between a mild day and a hot day.

      The combination of a 40C day and a high sitting over SA will be the test for the SA network this year. There are no high temperatures forecast for the next two weeks. The highs are currently a bit south of where they will be for the stifling hot weather that will come later in the year and early next year.

      40

    • #
      Another Ian

      DM

      IIRC in bean counting isn’t this called starving financials to show a profit?

      40

      • #
        Sceptical Sam

        No.

        It’s called industrial sabotage.

        It’s the 21 Century equivalent of “throwing a spanner in the works”.

        It’s what the green-left subversives and Luddites do to achieve their revolutionary aims.

        40

  • #
    David Maddison

    Should we make more use in our vocabulary of the terms weather-dependent and weather-independent power production?

    41

  • #
    pat

    20 Oct: NZ Herald: Peter Griffin: What will a change of government mean for science and the environment?
    Science in its own right didn’t really feature as an election issue, but the various science-related policy statements of Labour, New Zealand First and the Green Party we collected at the Science Media Centre, and a panel discussion on science policy a few weeks before the election, suggests the science sector may be in for some significant changes…

    4: Climate change
    Labour has been big on ambition and small on detail when it comes to tackling climate change.
    It plans to establish an independent Climate Commission and carbon budgeting with a view to shifting to a sustainable low-carbon economy.
    It wants to apply the Emissions Trading Scheme to all sectors and all gases to move towards “low or zero-carbon options”.

    New Zealand First has a different set of priorities in mind in relation to climate change. It would ditch the ETS, replacing it with a UK-style Climate Change Act, introduce a Parliamentary Commissioner for Climate Change, which would assume legal responsibility for reporting against the Kyoto and Paris agreements.
    It wants a “Carbon Budget” to be operative by 2021 and would channel money saved from buying emissions units ($1.4 billion a year according to New Zealand First) into research and development, and adapting to climate change.

    The Greens are the most ambitious on climate change, wanting a net zero carbon economy by 2050 through a mix of using more renewable energy sources, levying agricultural emissions and pursuing low carbon transport options.
    This article was originally published on Sciblogs.co.nz
    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11935104

    10

  • #
    pat

    When you are on a good thing…change it:

    19 Oct: CarbonBrief: Simon Evans: Renewables will give more people access to electricity than coal, says IEA
    Around the world, more than a billion people still lack access to electricity.
    This number is shrinking, down by one third since 2000, despite rising population levels, according to an International Energy Agency (IEA) special report on energy access, published today.

    The report says that while coal has supplied nearly half of the progress from 2000 to date, its role is set to decline “dramatically”. This is because renewables are becoming cheaper and because the hardest-to-reach people are in remote, rural areas where off-grid solutions offer the lowest cost.
    The report shows the number of people without access to electricity will shrink by another third by 2030, with 60% of these gains supplied by renewables. Furthermore, if the world commits to providing universal access by 2030, then renewables would bridge 90% of the remaining gap, the IEA says…

    There have been spectacular gains in providing access to electricity this century, cutting the number without it from 1.7 billion in 2000 to 1.1 billion in 2016, the IEA says. Most of this progress has been in Asia, as the charts below show (blue, yellow and green lines and columns)…
    India has led the way, with 500 million gaining access to electricity. Sub-Saharan Africa now has the majority of people still without access, at 600 million, an increase over the past 15 years due to rising populations…
    Coal has been the main source of this new supply, generating 45% of the electricity used by people gaining access for the first time between 2000 and 2016 (purple pictograms in the chart, below)…
    In India, for example, coal generated 75% of new supplies, against 20% for renewables. (This pattern is expected to reverse, see below.)…
    https://www.carbonbrief.org/renewables-will-help-more-people-access-electrcity-than-coal-iea

    IEA: WEO-2017 Special Report: Energy Access Outlook (144 PAGES)
    DOWNLOAD PUBLICATION
    https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/weo-2017-special-report-energy-access-outlook.html

    19 Oct: World Coal: WCA: IEA report recognises coal’s role in energy access
    by Harleigh Hobbs
    According to the report, in the last 16 years, nearly all of those who gained access to electricity worldwide did so through new grid connections, mostly from fossil fuels – 45% of which came from coal…

    WCA Chief Executive, Benjamin Sporton: “With significant strides made in delivering energy access to urban populations the IEA report highlights the significant role that renewable technologies, and solar in particular, will play in electrifying rural and remote populations through mini and off-grid solutions. This means that coal’s role in delivering a “first connection” to new power will reduce; but 16% of those who gain access through to 2030 will still do so with coal meaning coal continues to play an important role in the world’s energy access targets.”…

    “While the IEA has increased the ambition for its energy access target, it still sits well below even India’s per capita consumption today. Beyond basic first connections economic development and real energy access needs more than basic ‘light bulb’ solutions; it needs grids powered up to support business and industry and other essential social services, something this report largely ignores.”

    “It’s in powered up grids in developing Asia and Africa where governments have identified a role for low emissions coal technology to meet their integrated energy access and climate objectives. 24 countries including major economies such as India, Nigeria and throughout Southeast Asia have identified low emissions coal technologies as critical to powering their economic development while reducing emissions in their Paris Agreement pledges.”

    Sporton concluded: “This highlights the need for investment in a range of technologies, including coal. There is a perception that global energy access and climate objectives can be achieved without coal, a claim this report contradicts. That is why the World Coal Association continues to call for international support from development banks and other institutions for low emission coal technologies to be deployed where they are needed.”
    https://www.worldcoal.com/power/19102017/wca-iea-report-recognises-coals-role-in-energy-access/

    20

  • #
    TdeF

    So it’s come to this. We have to have major blackout lasting days or weeks to create the anger needed to stop politicans playing with the power?

    Try to explain how we have the world’s highest power bills and cannot buy power at any cost? Try to explain we are saving the world. Try to explain that it is all too complicated.

    When power was a state matter and the Federal government was not involved at all, we had a 20% excess of power and endless natural resources. Now we are Keating’s banana republic. Unable to buy power at any cost while being the world’s largest coal exporter.

    Try to tell the voters that everything is in good hands. You will get riots, but that’s what the Greens want. Revolution. However if Abbott gets back and promises to remove all the ‘crap’, he will win handsomely.

    Most people barrack for political parties. Public servants for Labor. Private enterprise for Liberal. Rarely does an issue cut across this. Whoever promises to end the absurdity that we in Australia are changing the world’s climate and must be punished, will win handsomely. That’s why they cannot get rid of Abbott.

    A real clue is that Peter Van Onsolen is saying Malcolm is safe, which means he is not but Peter does not want him to be replaced by Abbott. Last week he was writing that Abbott’s friends were upset with him, which they are not. Morrison, Brandis, Bishop have all said Abbott should stop commenting and Turnbull hints strongly.

    Repeal the Real RET, the Renewable Energy (Electricity) Act 2001 and the market will sort it out quickly. We can send all those diesel generators home.

    If we have to pay lip service to CO2 reduction by way of improving coal efficiency and planting trees, so what? It is far cheaper than shutting down our country. Besides, if Russia, India, China and the US are doing nothing and Germany and Japan are getting back into coal, why are we so slow to read the writing on the wall?

    Repeal the RET, turn Hazelwood on NOW. Take back Liddell which AGL do not want and for which they paid nothing and fix it. Build another for South Australia so they do not have to rely on gas and push gas prices through the roof too. All simple, able to be done tomorrow.

    What we need is Abbott back. Fast. There was never any real reason for removing him except one gigantic ego.

    100

    • #
      TdeF

      Watch the way Abbott walks late into every vote. Fixed smile. Determined footsteps. He is a man on a mission. Then watch Turnbull waveing his hands around and saying it is all too complicated and his plan is not a cap and trade scheme with a price on Carbon. Even Labor are laughing. Either it is all deceit or Turnbull does not understand his own policy. Either way, we need a competent PM.

      80

    • #
      Robber

      What’s the odds we won’t have blackouts, rather programmed “brown outs”? Industries will be selectively told to cut back, shopping centres will be asked to reduce lighting, night sport will be curtailed, and there will be lots of diesel generators installed.

      50

      • #
        TdeF

        Hard to control let alone police. Interconnectors just get turned off, as with South Australia. Then you get catastrophic collapse without the steady beat of the big coal generator. AC grids are very tricky things and generators explode if they are even slightly out.

        Maybe region shut downs. Very politically sensitive though.

        The politicians cannot talk their way out of this. It is all their doing and the people know it. It just does not make sense that we should go from having plenty of power to not enough. We have lost car manufacture, much of the smelting industry, everyone has lower lighting demand, more efficient electronics and we have less power than a few years ago. Try and waffle out of that.

        Of course Turnbull will say it is Weatherill’s fault.

        One thing is certain, the owners of Hazelwood will be sitting quietly waiting for the call from Daniel Andrews. At that point what things cost is a whole lot less important than sitting in the dark in Spring Street wondering if you still have a job.

        That is what happened to Pelican Point. Weatherill was angry that it was not running Enron/Mitsui said pay us. Then Weatherill said he would build his own $350Million gas plant. Then he realised he would be out a job before anyone could even start.

        Short of Venezuela, the socialists on both sides of politics have done the most amazing damage to a country and a previously reliable, cheap and adequate power supply which had a surplus of 20%. If we have the most expensive electricity in the country, why are the coal plants closed and closing? Why?

        Where is this ‘pollution?’ Where are the rapidly rising seas? Where is the food shortage? Why is everybody but Australia building coal and nuclear?

        Whoever promises to stop the windmills will walk into Canberra.

        70

    • #
      Dennis

      A giant ego coupled to a lack of judgement coupled to extreme cunning and devious behaviour convincing new boy MPs after the landslide defeat of Labor in September 2013 by the Abbott led Coalition that the leader was so unpopular that the new boys must vote for a new leader or risk losing their seats in 2016.

      So they voted for a new leader and most of them lost their seats in 2016.

      70

  • #
    Another Ian

    O/T A bit of mirth among the dismal (IMO)

    “Climate Craziness of the Week: Michael Mann hawking “climate toothpaste” ”

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/10/19/climate-craziness-of-the-week-michael-mann-hawking-climate-toothpaste/

    Don’t miss the comments either

    50

  • #
    Petert C

    This a very timely and excellent blog post.
    Politicians and some journalists are waking up to the horrible consequences that actions to fix the non problem of AGW are causing.

    Just this morning I sent a message to Minister Frydenberg:

    20 October 2017
    Dear Minister,

    The NEG policy does not go anywhere near far enough to avert the impending catastrophe to the Australian economy. The continued increase in intermittent unreliable electricity sources is destabilising the electricity grid, driving up prices and causing loss of jobs/employment. When is enough enough!

    You have been provided with free copies of the IPA’s publications; “Climate Change – the Facts” and “Climate Change – The Facts 2017″. Everything that you need to challenge the Climate alarmists ridiculous claims that CO2 is damaging or threatening the Global Climate is in there. Please read them if you have not already done so, then act to save our economy. All mandatory targets and subsidies for intermittent unreliable energy sources must go.

    The Prime Minister has had a big part in making this problem so he must go also.

    Jo’s message is getting through.
    It seems from the increasing rate of comments that the blog is being read by more people and that helps to increase the pressure even more.

    40

  • #

    Pity help the poor AEMO, and before any of you wonder why I say that, this is a bunch of good engineers working very hard to balance what is a delicate situation handed to them by unthinking politicians, and some Company CEO’s who think they can just get out of coal.

    They are the ones whose job it is to see that the lights remain on.

    They have to balance the available power generation with what is being consumed, the Demand, and by and large they do a very good job at it.

    You only need to watch the Dispatch Overview at that AEMO site to see the power sharing arrangements between the States to see just how delicate the balance is to keep each State with power.

    These are the two benign months of the Spring when power consumption is lowest, as are those two Months in April. (the Autumn) You may think it’s easy for me to just say that, but click on thee second image in Joanne’s text above, and it’ll open up a lot larger than it is there. Then you can see that ‘squiggly’ (sort of sine wave) line in the dark colour there. Where it is lowest, then look at the legend along the bottom of that image and see the Months shown, and those benign months are the ones when consumption is lowest.

    Now, why I say that is that during those Months, all those ‘Majors’, the coal fired plants shut down their Units for maintenance, so that they are ready for Summer, when consumption is greatest and they are in the best condition to be able to cover that excess consumption. This has been noticeable (well, to me anyway) as I have been watching now for the last 18 weeks or so, and during the last three to five weeks, there has been as many as 8 to 12 Units off line at any one time. As one comes back on line, another goes down. This isn’t just good luck, or coincidence, this is planning, that seamless, unseen, and largely unthanked planning that ensures available power for when it is needed.

    There’s still more to work on, and by mid November, you’ll see most of those Units all online, and following the Load, as they do, and come those big Summer days, they’ll just be humming along nicely thank you very much.

    All done by the engineers at the AEMO.

    So, for those among us who may think that the only way to make people wake up will be for there to be blackouts, and load shedding, then there is nearly every chance that will not happen. The AEMO will do absolutely everything in their power to keep the power on, no matter what.

    It’ll take an outright catastrophe to black out, and that’s what happened in South Australia when that State went black. It only takes one, two, three big generators to go offline, and here they were those wind plants, and then a cascading failure eventuates, no matter what anyone says, and no matter what they can do, as it all happens in, quite literally, seconds, as it did in SouthAus.

    Then you get people like you know who blaming the AEMO, and all the sycophants who are Labor Green followers, and hang off every word he says as the gospel truth, they just blindly believe what he says, and the AEMO wears the blame, which then adds to the case that they are the villains in anything to do with electrical power.

    At the moment, they are covering all the bases as those Units go down so they can be ready for Summer.

    You can bet that if there is a large failure causing blackouts, it won’t be the politicians getting the blame, unless they are non Labor/Green that is, and then they will just get added to the AEMO on the list of complicity.

    Some of us actually do have an idea what is happening, and I seriously believe that blackouts will never happen, as much as some of wish they would, if only to make everyone sit up and take notice, and they won’t happen because there are good people doing good things to see that the power does keep coming out of that proverbial hole in the wall.

    Tony.

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    • #
      TdeF

      How reliable is Liddell? The loss of this amount of power at a peak and the blackouts will roll across the Eastern Searboard. It was very close last summer and I doubt AGL has spent a cent. The station cost them nothing. AEMO can coordinate, but when the owner says they are getting out of coal, that they want to close Liddell and want only windmill power, there is possibly nothing AEMO can do.

      50

      • #

        Units One and Two have been offline since a couple of days before AGL invited the media out to see the plant, so four weeks plus. The other two units are generating between 250MW and 400MW (Unit 3) to 425MW (Unit 4) of their original 500MW Nameplate, following the load.

        I might suggest that the use by date for this plant is approaching, and it would be uneconomically viable to keep it going longer than that.

        Tony.

        60

        • #
          TdeF

          It is always cheaper than to build a new one. Unit by unit. Hazelwood had over $1.5Billion spent. Liddell is being run down. Hazelwood is ready to go. Liddell is ready to collapse. I am sure everyone is doing their best from AEMO to the plant engineers, but AGL has no intention of maintaining it. Publicly want to close it as soon as possible, regardless of the consequences. As a major integrated supplier from coal to gas to wholesale to retail, they keep the RET but it would be sweeter if everyone else had to pay them. Paying the RET to yourself is great, but not as good.

          This is where privitization falls down. Dumping a plant at $0 on an unwilling buyer and then expecting them to maintain and develop it is nonsense. The government did not want the expense. Nor did AGL.

          With Liddell and Hazelwood out of action, we are past critical. No matter what the engineers do, Murphy will always beat them.

          Consider the engineers on the Wivenhoe dam as it passed the 190% full, threatening to destory Brisbane. Great that the committee had demanded those emergency plugs to break or bureaucratic inertia and Green religion would have killed a million people. Of course the engineers were blamed. As will happen this time, but we know the politicians are the problem.

          60

          • #
            TdeF

            I am hoping that the Enron/Mitsui board are playing possum, as they did with Pelican Point. Amazingly Tony it is now flat out, as you have puzzled. It is no less than I expected.

            Hazelwood, I hope, is also in readiness. They had a 40 year lease with 20 to go. Cheaper to close and wait than spend $1.6Billion on landscaping. The Hazelwood engineers also had something to prove, as you noted. So do the owners. All Andrews has to do is cover the losses and pay for the ultra cheap electricity. Make the coal free. It’s ours.

            Why should wind be called ‘renewables’ when it is so expensive, random, itermittent, unreliable and short term. Coal is the same price. Free, but reliable. We have hundreds of years of it and coal power plants are far cheaper, non polluting and run on natural coal with no ‘emissions’, unless human breathing is pollution.

            Then CSG which has turned the US from a Nett importer to a nett exporter. Our politicans say we cannot use it, that without a single case of ground water contamination in a million wells, we dare not take the risk? Rubbish. Utter nonsense.

            With politicians like this, who needs them? All votes on your phone. Get rid of parliament. Turnbull, Shorten, Di Natalie, Andrews, Weatherill, Gillard, Rudd, Pyne, Bishop and the rest. The worst people in politics in my lifetime.

            NBN, National Disability, VFT, Snowy II, Pink Batts, RET, BER, Christmas Island, Nauru, Manus Island. It is unbelievable how many hundreds of billions have been wasted by the self important incompetents.

            As for the Chief Scientist with his department and all his scientists and , where is the science? He talks economics. The economists talks Science. Sellouts and opportunists, like their masters.

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              Sceptical Sam

              With politicians like this, who needs them? All votes on your phone. Get rid of parliament. Turnbull, Shorten, Di Natalie, Andrews, Weatherill, Gillard, Rudd, Pyne, Bishop and the rest. The worst people in politics in my lifetime.

              NBN, National Disability, VFT, Snowy II, Pink Batts, RET, BER, Christmas Island, Nauru, Manus Island. It is unbelievable how many hundreds of billions have been wasted by the self important incompetents.

              As for the Chief Scientist with his department and all his scientists and , where is the science? He talks economics. The economists talks Science. Sellouts and opportunists, like their masters.

              Oh Gawd, TdeF. Beautiful.

              Idiots all.

              Every man for himself and his family.

              It’s enough to kill a brown dog. Or become an Anti-green Anarchist.

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            Sceptical Sam

            Murphy will always beat them.

            Murphy is an Anarchist.

            The green-left signed him up decades ago.

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      PeterS

      Perhaps you are right and we will never have blackouts (although it’s good advice never say never) but that’s not the real point. Certainly blackouts this summer would be a watershed moment for all but we don’t need it in the medium to loner term to get the same effect. Continually rising prices are already starting to wake people up. You also are assuming that our existing coal fired power stations will continue to run forever. They won’t because they can’t mostly for financial reasons under the current and future agendas to keep promoting renewables. According to some reports if we are to continue on the current road to reducing our emissions more than 80 per cent of the current coal fired power stations would have to be closed in less than five years. Replacing them with renewables is the only option according to the so called experts, the two major parties and the MSM. That is the status quo at the moment. So we are dead meat unless this nexus is broken. It can only be broken by a watershed moment that forces everyone to dump the campaign to move to renewables the way we are at the moment. What form it takes only time will tell. Either it will be massive gird failures this summer or next, or prices rising so high that business both large and small start closing down leading to massive unemployment, crashing real-estate and stock prices, etc., or perhaps if we wait long enough the closing down of more and more coal fired power stations leads to a panic moment of a rapid increase in failing grids during normal times as well as peak times. So the only way to avoid a collapse in our grid and hence our economy, be it short or long term is to start building new generation coal fired power stations, just as pretty much every other nation is building them as we speak.

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        Robber

        We still have at least 3 more more years with the RET increasing from the current 14% of electricity supply on average to 23.5% by 2020 (or 33,500 GWhr). Note that these targets exclude small scale rooftop solar, so the intermittency is even worse.
        With hydro providing 6% and no investment planned, wind/solar are currently providing 8% of demand on average, and by 2020 they must supply 17.5% on average at a 30% capacity factor. What does that do to grid reliability? It means that at peak production (midday, max wind) wind/solar will be able to supply over 55% of demand, and coal/gas will provide only 45% (with hydro shutoff). Is that sustainable/reliable?
        At the other extreme, to meet the evening peak demand with no wind/solar available, coal/gas must deliver 90% of demand with hydro peaking at 10%.

        So in 2020 coal/gas on average must supply 76.5% of demand, but have capacity available to supply 90% of peak demand, and then on some days cut back to only supply 45% of demand. What does that do to economic viability? It means lower average utilisation, so less profits unless prices increase. Hence some generators like AGL/Liddell are getting ready to shut down.

        But we still have some state governments and the federal opposition demanding the renewable target be increased to 40-50%. At a 30% capacity factor, that means that at peak production “renewables/intermittents” will be able to provide 130-165% of demand (hmm serious storage required?), so all coal/gas stations will be idling. But at minimum wind/solar production, coal/gas must still be available to supply 90% of demand.

        Can someone please tell these pathetic pollies that they are dreaming as they stuff up Australia’s future?

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    pat

    behind paywall…hiding the perks of Govt!

    Former UK climate change minister to chair Russian conglomerate
    Financial Times-18 Oct. 2017
    EN+, the Russian conglomerate, has named Greg Barker, former UK energy minister, as its non-executive chairman, raising fresh concerns about the British parliament’s “revolving doors” culture… The main businesses of the EN+ group are hydro power generation and …

    18 Oct: CityAM: Courtney Goldsmith: Former energy minister Lord Barker has been named the chairman of En+
    Russia’s En+ Group has named former UK energy minister Lord Barker as its chair ahead of its initial public offering (IPO) in London.
    The aluminium and hydro power producer, which is controlled by billionaire Oleg Deripaska, plans to float on the London and Moscow stock exchanges in a $1.5bn (£1.1bn) listing in November.
    Barker served as Britain’s energy and climate change secretary under former Primer Minister David Cameron, and his career as an MP spanned 14 years. In 2015, he became a member of the House of Lords…

    Maxim Sokov, chief executive of En+: “The development of green energy continues to be a fundamental component of our business and Lord Barker’s experience in promoting renewable energy will be invaluable to our efforts.”…
    Barker presided over the expansion of clean energy from six per cent of the grid to 18 per cent during his time as energy secretary…
    http://www.cityam.com/274108/former-energy-minister-lord-barker-has-been-named-chairman-

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    William

    As an ex, and thoroughly disaffected Liberal voter, I disagree with many of the commentators regarding Tony Abbott.

    While all indications are that he is a thoroughly decent human being, and much to be admired for his out of politics life, he is not a leader and he is embarrassingly inept at politics. This became blindingly obvious to me after I voted for him on the basis of his performance as leader of the opposition. I went into shock while watching him perform as PM.

    As Leader of the Opposition, he was a follower: all he had to do was react to Labor. At this he was brilliant.

    But as PM he needed to lead. At this he was a dismal failure; he was totally clueless. If not for Peta Credlin, he would have locked himself in his office and never seen daylight.

    His infantile ineptitude at politics was epitomized by his comment about three months after his election to PM; he had locked himself in his office and had become all but invisible. When he finally was forced by Credlin to surface his only notable comment was: “Our deeds will speak for themselves”. When I picked myself up off the floor, it was with the realization that he was a dead man walking, as was the Liberal party.

    So, the only role Tony Abbot should have would be as a commentator. He should have no role in which he is expected to lead; he could function well in a rigidly circumscribed role, in which he is given clear objectives and allowed to operate under close supervision.

    At present, there is no doubt in my mind that the Liberals will disappear after the next election; certainly I will not be voting for them. Unfortunately, this means that Labor will take office.

    The result is obvious: Australia will follow the lead of Venezuela and assume its position as a failed third world country.

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      PeterS

      I agree that Abbott is not leadership material and that he is better suited in some other important role. What the Liberal party needs is a Menzies or Churchill style leader to save this country from ruin. I doubt there is such a person around to fit that role so Australia’s future is obvious – there is none.

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        Robber

        How can we bring back Jeff Kennett? The only politician I have met who tells it like it is, and was prepared to throw dirt into the faces of leftist journos.

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          PeterS

          What about Mark Latham??!!?!?! Despite coming from the ALP he actually talks more like a centre right conservative than any Liberal conservative. If one had to place him on the typical left-right spectrum I’d put him around centre right inching towards far right, at least in most areas. Seriously though even he isn’t the right person for the job but I tell you what – he’d be far better than Turnbull that’s for sure.

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        Glen Michel

        ME,ME! I’ll call the bloody Army in ! Sometimes one thinks that a sensible dictator is the way to go.

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        Dennis

        You ignore the position of strength Menzies occupied while he was Prime Minister, and the undermining that Abbott faced as Opposition Leader from 2009 and as Prime Minister from late 2013.

        Try being a company board chairman with half of the directors hostile towards you.

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      TdeF

      So who stopped the boats? Who removed the carbon tax? Who managed to negotiate these through a minority position in the Senate? Who with great foresight lectured Europe on the now recognized dangers of uncontrolled migration? Who called Climate Change crap? What more do you want a leader to do?

      We now realise that his ministers fought him at every step. 12 of them and other Liberal heavies paid for a full page advertisement in the Australian pushing the YES case as if it was Liberal and National party policy. These are the self named Black Hand who conspired against Abbott from the day he was Prime Minister. Surrounded by enemies plus the new bedwetters who all lost their seats.

      No you are talking about Malcolm’s Liberals. They used Tony as Gillard’s CFMEU buddies and Shorten used Rudd. So it is a choice between Turnbull who knifed one Prime Minister and Shorten who knifed two.

      Only now the press are saying Abbott cannot come back, Abbott cannot lead, Abbott wants Credlin back, Abbott is the wrecker, Abbott can never stop the boats.

      You are talking about Malcolm’s Liberals, Greener than Green, left of Shorten. Most Liberal voters want them gone too.

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      Sceptical Sam

      Abbott is the the only one currently in Parliament who can sort this rabble out.

      The Australian people would return him with a majority once Turnbull is gone.

      Forget the MSM. They’re irrelevant. They’re lefties. They do not understand how Australians think.

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      robert rosicka

      I missed this one Ian , so now it’s a race to see which communist state can successfully bring their state to its knees .
      From what I’m seeing Victoriastan is lucky we have extension cords to two other states , 40% unreliables is only going to make matters worse .

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    pat

    11 Oct: Bloomberg: BlackRock Names Former Obama Aide to Run Sustainable Investing
    By Emily Chasan With assistance by Sabrina Willmer
    Brian Deese was a key adviser on Paris Climate Agreement
    BlackRock Inc., is bringing in a former senior Obama administration official to run fast-growing sustainable investment strategies at the world’s biggest asset manager.
    Brian Deese, 39, who led environmental initiatives for the Obama White House and was deputy director of the Office of Management and Budget, is joining BlackRock Tuesday as head of sustainable investing, according to a staff memo obtained by Bloomberg.

    ???Global socially responsible investments, which reached $23 trillion by the start of 2016, have outpaced growth in invested assets under management broadly, according to the Global Sustainable Investment Alliance…

    Deese, while serving under President Barack Obama, was a key adviser while the administration was negotiating the Paris climate accord, as well as a global airline pollution offsetting agreement and projects aimed at boosting clean-energy lending in the U.S. In the final days of the administration, he warned that failure to invest in climate change mitigation could leave the economy worse off in the future…
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-10/blackrock-names-former-obama-aide-to-run-sustainable-investing

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    pat

    tax-exempt, Podesta/Clinton-connected, “progressive” left Media Matters loves the FakeNewsMSM.
    “Many scientists” is Columbia’s “Park Williams”, and Gov. Jerry Brown is a climate expert, in their minds.
    calls the only dissenting newspaper names:

    18 Oct: Media Matters: California newspaper editorials connect the dots between climate change and wildfires
    by Lisa Hymas
    Many scientists have pointed to climate change as a significant factor that’s intensifying fires like those in California. Columbia University bioclimatologist Park Williams, who co-authored a study last year that found climate change was markedly worsening wildfires in the American West, talked to McClatchy about the California fires last week: “The fingerprint is definitely there,” Williams said. “The connection between temperatures and fire is one we see again and again in the correlation analyses we do.”

    California Gov. Jerry Brown emphasized the connection last week: “With a warming climate, dry weather and reducing moisture, these kinds of catastrophes have happened and will continue to happen,” he said.

    And five of California’s biggest papers have published editorials clearly connecting the dots between this year’s out-of-control wildfire season and climate change.

    The Los Angeles Times, the largest newspaper in California, published an editorial on October 12 explaining how the fires fit into a broader pattern of weather disasters that scientists have been telling us to expect as the world warms…
    The Sacramento Bee made similar points in a strong October 10 editorial and put the heat on President Trump for ignoring climate change…
    The San Francisco Chronicle, The Mercury News (San Jose), and The San Diego Union-Tribune all published editorials arguing that governments need to be better prepared to fight wildfires, in part because climate change is making fires more of a danger.
    Of the six largest-circulation California newspapers that publish editorials, only The Orange County Register — whose editorial board has a record of climate denial — failed to make mention of climate change in its editorial about the ongoing fires…

    Editorial boards beyond California are picking up the thread as well. The Miami Herald, a major paper in a state recently hit by Hurricane Irma, made note of wildfires in an editorial last week that criticized President Trump’s reversal of the Clean Power Plan, a key Obama-era policy to fight climate change: “Ironically, the repeal is being announced at a time when the impact of climate change is too powerful to deny — in hurricanes of unprecedented frequency and power, in increasing droughts, in expanded wildfires.” The Washington Post and The New York Times ran editorials last week making similar points…

    Newspapers and networks with national audiences should do the same, following the lead of The Washington Post and The New York Times…
    https://www.mediamatters.org/blog/2017/10/18/California-newspaper-editorials-connect-the-dots-between-climate-change-and-wildfires/218252

    Oct 2016: WUWT: Debunking the L A Times story claiming new study shows human caused warming doubled western U.S. area burned since 1984
    Guest essay by Larry Hamlin
    A study published in August by a Columbia University team led by climatologist Park Williams concluded that global warming has indeed shown itself in California, by increasing evaporation that has aggravated the current drought.

    But Williams said his research, the first to tease out the degree to which global warming is affecting California weather, did not show climate change to be a major cause of the drought…
    “There is insufficient data,” said U.S. Forest Service ecologist Matt Jolly. His work shows that over the last 30 years, California has had an average of 18 additional days per year that are conducive to fire…
    The new wildfire study is extremely deficient in not addressing at all the fact that the number of wildfires across the U.S. has not increased during the study period between of 1984-2015. (LINK)…
    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/10/12/debunking-the-l-a-times-story-claiming-new-study-shows-human-caused-warming-doubled-western-u-s-area-burned-since-1984/

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    pat

    just pay us, no matter what we do:

    19 Oct: Bloomberg: Mark Chediak: Solar Wants to Help Fix a Power-Grid Problem It Helped Create
    Big solar farms helped create a power-grid predicament in California. And now they’re offering to help solve it.
    Solar panels have proliferated in the Golden State, flooding the grid with power supplies in the middle of the day when the sun’s out — and then quickly vanishing after sunset. This has created a sharp curve in California’s net-power demand that’s shaped like a duck. And the so-called duck curve is getting steeper every year, sending wholesale electricity prices plunging into negative territory, forcing generators offline and making it increasingly difficult to maintain the reliability of California’s transmission lines.

    First Solar Inc. Chief Executive Officer Mark Widmar thinks he has a solution: change the way solar farms are paid. If the state’s utilities compensate them for shutting generation when the grid doesn’t need it and providing power later when it does, he said, farms could use increasingly sophisticated inverters and software controls to adjust. They’re only running full bore right now, he said, because their contracts with customers encourage them to produce as much energy as possible, he said.
    “They just want you to pump out as much as you can,’’ Widmar said Wednesday while attending a symposium organized by grid manager California Independent System Operator Corp. in Sacramento. “Some contracts penalize you for under-generation.”

    First Solar is in a position to know. The Tempe, Arizona-based company has about 3.6 gigawatts of solar generation in California. It could apply a meaningful brake on afternoon generation.

    Widmar said First Solar has been talking to state officials about creating this new type of contract that would pay solar generators for producing less midday and sending the power out later in the afternoon as demand ramps up. “What we are trying to propose,” he said, “allows you to capture the inherent value that solar could create.”
    https://about.bnef.com/blog/solar-wants-to-help-fix-a-power-grid-problem-it-helped-create/

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    pat

    just as confused in the UK!

    19 Oct: Edie.net: Jane Gray: Report calls for bonfire of energy policy ‘obsessions’
    A new report co-authored by Laura Sandys has called for a bonfire of the traditional “obsessions” of energy policy makers and regulators in order to enable a radically new regulatory model for the future
    The report, Reshaping Regulation, claims that an undue focus on the problem of the energy “trilemma” as well as fuel poverty and security of supply have “distorted” policy making and regulation “for too long”.
    To realise a low carbon energy future characterised by flexible decentralised generation, demand side participation and innovative smart home services, the report insists a new policy and regulatory model is needed…

    To help achieve a fresh regulatory approach, the report calls for a review “of all bodies currently regulating the energy sector with a clear ambition to rationalise, simplify and identify any ‘gaming’ of the complexity.”
    It also says that the “misplaced responsibility given to the energy sector” to act against fuel poverty “should be removed”.

    “Fuel poverty is not an energy problem, but either one of real poverty or of bad housing, and as a result should sit clearly within a different set of policy areas and departments,” reads the report.
    On the so-called energy trilemma, which has dominated policy making for decades now and seeks to balance security of supply, decarbonisation and affordability, the report says: “These are all problems not ambitions for the sector and, as a result, policy has found it difficult to move forward without one or other element dragging on the opportunities or clarity around the others.”…

    Commenting on the report, co-author Laura Sandy’s, chief executive of consultancy Challenging Ideas, said the new model it puts forward will “create new winners and losers in the market, new risks for consumers who will need less protection from an invisible energy product, but with many more risks around personal data.” …

    Sandys, who is a former Conservative MP and member of the now defunct Energy and Climate Change Select Committee, is also currently a member of the expert advisory panel for the controversial government-commissioned Cost of Energy Review, which is being led by Professor Dieter Helm and is due to report before the end of the momth.
    Sandys has previously written for edie’s sister title Utility Week about her belief that “security of supply” should become a “banned” term in the energy industry, and at Utility Week’s Energy Summit this summer, she expressed her firm view that fuel poverty should be a responsibility for social policy makers, not energy policy makers…

    The authors of the Reshaping Regulating report plan to release a follow-up document which will provide a “roadmap” for achieving it’s recommendations. The report was produced with support from the Energy Systems Catapult, a government-funded innovation hub.
    https://www.edie.net/news/6/Sandys-calls-for-bonfire-of-energy-policy-obsessions/

    for some reason, I can’t paste a link for the following, but, if it interests you, then just search “Challenging Ideas ReSHAPING Regulation” & it will come up:

    PDF: 24 pages: Challenging Ideas: ReSHAPING Regulation: Powering from the future
    Authors: Laura Sandys, CEO of Challenging Ideas
    Dr Jeff Hardy, Senior Research Fellow at the Grantham Institute, Imperial College London
    Professor Richard Green, Alan and Sabine Howard Professor of Sustainable Energy Business at the Imperial College Business School

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    turnedoutnice

    Grantham is yet another carbon-tax mugger of the poor.

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    robert rosicka

    Right now tassie is short on supply and so is Victoriastan, first time I’ve seen tassie taking power from vic .

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    pat

    btw hope everyone at jo’s website knows suppliers will offer bigger discounts to virtally anyone who asks. Origin is offering 14% discount to customers receiving a paper bill (no cost for bill either), and 16% to those receiving digital bills and paying by Direct Debit. spread the word:

    20 Oct: MackayDailyMercury: George Christensen launches plan to combat power prices
    by Melanie Plane
    GEORGE Christensen has launched campaign ‘Power the North’ to push for a new coal-fired power station.
    New website http://www.PowerTheNorth.com.au (LINK) went live this morning as part of the major north Queensland campaign to tackle power prices.
    The Federal Member for Dawson said the National Energy Guarantee (NEG) would only work if it enabled investment in coal, and government assistance is provided to kick-start the construction of a clean coal-fired power station…

    In his push for a new coal-fired power station, Mr Christensen noted a report commissioned by Townsville Enterprise Limited titled ‘Base Load Power in North Queensland and the Dalrymple Agricultural Scheme’ which found the need for additional capacity.
    He said the report found a major coal-fired power station would put downward pressure on electricity prices, with a potential $838 million social cost benefit gain…

    “The National Energy Guarantee gets a big tick from me in terms of the improvements it will bring regarding energy reliability,” he said.
    “However the focus on emissions should not come at the expense of affordability. All I can say is that the people I speak to aren’t so interested in lowering emissions but in lowering their power bills…

    The launch of the Power the North campaign coincides with an announcement by Federal Member for Capricornia Michelle Landry and CQ based Senator Matt Canavan in Rockhampton today.
    Ms Landry and Mr Canavan will make an announcement surrounding the NEG for CQ at 11.30am
    https://www.dailymercury.com.au/news/george-christensen-launches-plan-to-combat-power-p/3243650/

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    pat

    behind paywall, but have found the following excerpts. seems Eastern Europe is no longer a market for the “renewables” mob:

    Progress on renewables provokes backlash in central and eastern Europe
    Financial Times-7 hours ago
    Prodded by the EU and assisted by falling installation costs, both member and applicant states in central and eastern Europe, such as the Baltic countries and Croatia, have made great strides in ramping up their renewable energy capacity this decade. The region has been a fast-growing photovoltaic market, according to indu stry association Solar Power Europe, with a compound annual growth rate in capacity of 28 per cent from 2010 to 2015.

    This has enabled seven countries – the Czech Republic, the three Baltic states, Romania, Bulgaria and Croatia – to already meet their individual 2020 EU targets for the percentage of energy consumption from renewables. Romania, Croatia, Slovenia and Latvia are now also above the EU average for the share of renewable power to overall energy consumption. This fast growth has, however, also created problems that threaten to hold back an increase in renewables. The countries in the lead are under little pressure to boost renewables over the next decade. The Czech Republic’s policy envisages that renewables will comprise just 16 per cent of primary energy sources in 2030, up from 13.4 per cent in 2014.

    Rapid growth of generously subsidised renewable projects has left end users, taxpayers or energy companies with steeper bills while private investors have secured lucrative profits. In the Czech Republic, the government reacted to a “solar boom” by restricting feed-in tariffs and imposing a windfall tax that often hit investors that had just entered the market.

    The backlash affected all renewables, explaining why wind farms such as JRD’s Vaclavice project have been so rare in recent years. “Renewables were completely discredited,” declared Jan Mladek, former minister and the architect of the Czech government’s energy policy…

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      Dennis

      Meanwhile, down under in Australia, our politicians ignore the experiences of northern hemisphere governments and nations.

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    pat

    Labour in UK (like Labor/Greens here) will never admit their own CAGW policies have contributed to this situation, or that their future CAGW policies will make the situation even worse:

    18 Oct: UK Independent: London gets ‘first not-for-profit energy provider in more than 100 years’
    ‘Too many are forced to face the question: heat or eat?’
    by Harriet Agerholm
    A north London council claims to have launched the capital’s first not-for-profit local energy provider in more than a century, saying the new scheme will help the poorest families.

    Islington Council – which is controlled by Labour – has invested £100,000 in setting up and marketing the company, called ***Angelic Energy.

    The announcement came after energy watchdog Ofgem told gas and electricity firms they must intervene earlier to help those in debt…
    While the number of customers owing money has decreased, the number of pre-pay customers repaying larger bills was not dropping fast enough, it said.
    The watchdog yesterday warned the big energy companies, including British Gas and SSE, that they face a regulatory crackdown if they do not move faster to take customers off the worst-value tariffs.

    Around 20 per cent of households in Islington use pay-as-you-go meters, rising to 40 per cent of those in social housing, the council said. Meanwhile a fifth of households live in fuel poverty.
    The borough has the third-highest level of child poverty in the country, at 36 per cent, despite its reputation of being wealthy, it said…

    Councillor Claudia Webbe, Islington Council’s member for environment and transport: “Too many are forced to face the question ‘heat or eat?’. “Children brought up in fuel poverty also do worse at school and college, so helping current and future generations to stay warm and well is an absolute priority for us.”…

    It is thought that a nationwide cap on energy prices, which was promised by Theresa May in early October, is unlikely to come into force before winter.
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/london-islington-council-energy-provider-not-for-profit-a8007136.html

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    pat

    20 Oct: UK Telegraph: Jillian Ambrose: British Gas unveils first smart meter fit for digital energy boom
    After years of delay the next generation smart meter will be rolled out to British Gas customers from next year following a small-scale trial in UK homes over the summer.
    The major difference between the first and second generation meters, which both enable customers to track and record their energy use, is that the data will be used to harness household solar power, battery packs and electric vehicle charging to create a more efficient energy system.
    Whereas early meters were touted by suppliers as an end to estimated billing, the new meters are expected to unlock a raft of innovative retail energy products, including time-of-use tariffs and peer-to-peer energy trading…
    SMETS2 will also be more secure than the original smart meter, the company added…

    As a result the operators will be able to play the role of National Grid in balancing energy use but at a much smaller, local level to prevent blackouts and make better use of renewable power. This will mean networks will need to invest less in fortifying the grid by raising energy bills, he added.
    “That’s the beauty of it,” said Mr Cunningham. “It doesn’t matter if a percentage of SMETS1 remain because the density of information from SMETS2 will give the networks enough data to react to our energy use better.

    “At a very basic level network operators will immediately be alerted when there is a power cut to an area or a home during a storm, for example. Currently they rely on being told by customers. It’s easy to see how this very simple change could be very important in helping vulnerable members of society,” he added.

    ***The Swiss-based company said the UK market was already being eyed by Silicon Valley investors.
    “What is happening here is seen as a hotbed of innovation, and the world will follow,” said Mr Cunningham…
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/10/20/british-gas-unveils-first-smart-meter-fit-digital-energy-boom/

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    ScotsmanInUtah

    need more Sun to power solar panels to run A/C to keep cool

    It is an irony that a certain renewable needs more of the very energy source of that which causes the offence

    As for “hoping” for an El Nino !
    is that what we have come to in 21st Century OZ ?

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    pat

    20 Oct: Breitbart: Lancet: Pollution, Not CO2, Is ‘Largest Environmental Cause of Disease and Death’
    by Thomas D. Williams, Ph.D.
    In a major new study, the Lancet journal has revealed that pollution-related diseases were responsible for an estimated 9 million premature deaths in 2015, or some 15 times more than from all wars and other forms of violence combined.

    Pollution is not only the largest environmental cause of disease and premature death in the world today, the study (LINK) in the prestigious UK-based journal found, but diseases caused by pollution were responsible for roughly 16 percent of all deaths worldwide—“three times more deaths than from AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria combined and 15 times more than from all wars and other forms of violence.”

    While to date there has not been a single documented case of a person being killed by carbon dioxide related “global warming,” real pollution of air, water and land is killing an average of 25,000 people every day across the globe…

    So as environmental activists jet around the world complaining of “carbon footprints” and preaching “renewable energy” while insisting that first-world countries be taxed for their carbon dioxide emissions, they are silent regarding the real and present menace that is wiping out millions of human beings around the world.
    Although environmental Green activists like to talk of “carbon pollution,” in point of fact carbon dioxide (CO2) is not a “pollutant” at all…READ ALL
    http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2017/10/20/lancet-pollution-not-co2-largest-environmental-cause-disease-death/

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      TdeF

      Of course CO2 is not a pollutant. If it was missing, we would all be dead almost immediately. All plants and then all animals would die. Every tree is solid CO2.

      CO2 is the universal giver of life. Combine CO2 and H2O with sunshine and chlorophyll and you have the secret to life on earth. Pollutant? The Green in chlorophyll, a long chain hydrocarbon built like all life with CO2. The Cycle of Life, the Carbon Cycle is entirely CO2. The Greens are anti life. You can understand a banker/lawyer like Turnbull but it is odd that a GP like Di Natalie doesn’t understand chemistry.

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        Sceptical Sam

        but it is odd that a GP like Di Natalie doesn’t understand chemistry

        Really?

        Josef Mengele was a medical doctor. Did he understand chemistry?

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      Dennis

      At least ten years before the socialism masquerading as environmentalism hijacking of natural climate change and weather began developed nations agreed to tackle pollution problems. As I understand it the German Greens (not to be confused with the extreme red Greens) led the representations to government concerned about “acid rain” destroying the Black Forest, buildings and people.

      Environmental Protection Agencies followed and tough laws and penalties for polluting. That was carried out in the 1970s.

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    pat

    20 Oct: Australian: Greg Brown: Australians sick of climate wars: Turnbull
    Malcolm Turnbull has denied the government’s new energy plan is a carbon trading scheme despite concerns from government MPs who have likened it to a “cap and trade” scheme.
    The Prime Minister said the National Energy Guarantee — which will force energy retailers to buy a minimum amount of baseload power for every megawatt of renewable energy — was “market-based” and would not involve any subsidies.
    “John Pierce, the chairman of the Australian Energy Market Commission, said yesterday, it is not a carbon trading scheme, it’s not a renewable energy target,” Mr Turnbull said.
    “It’s a market-based mechanism that allows the retailers to compete, to have their portfolio generation assets as they choose, consistent with meeting two requirements. One is to ensure there’s enough reliable power to keep the lights on.”

    “What the constraints and rules are, that there’s got to be an adequate percentage of reliable energy, of dispatchable energy, that can be delivered on demand. You can see what happens when you lack that in South Australia. You get blackouts, high volatility,” he said.
    “All of these technologies will compete and if reliable renewables are cheaper than coal and gas there will be more reliable renewables. If they are not there won’t be. The important thing is we are getting out of the subsidy business. We are getting out of the winning business. The only winners we want to have our Australian families and Australian jobs. “…

    “We will do it with the states,” he told 3AW radio. “Clearly you do need COAG co-operation, it has got to be a COAG mechanism. But Australians are sick of the climate wars they want governments to work together.”
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/australians-sick-of-climate-wars-turnbull/news-story/d3c4f3ff4db22f9920c7d7505894a920

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      TdeF

      You would not have to force retailers to buy coal electricity if it was cheaper! The very fact that Turnbull has to make such a law demonstrates why the RET is absurd. The Federal government forces retailers to pay far more for coal power, 2/3 of it to third parties for the right to buy coal power.

      So a law to counteract a law which should not be there in the first place. More costs for retailers and this somehow makes electricity cheaper? 3+1 =2. Only a lawyer would think that you can legislate arithmetic.

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    Charles May

    The renewables fans must be hoping for a minor La Nina here over summer

    Focusing on that quote I think I can offer you some relief. I believe a deep La Nina is indicated.

    The figures that follow come from my analysis for the Multivariate ENSO index.

    In the above figure you will note “OFT”. That is David’s OFT.

    I have done the same for all the Nino regions. To keep this short here is what I have on Nino region 3.4.

    Forgive me if the figures don’t come through. I am not practiced at this.

    Anyway my projections indicate you can count on a La Nina to keep things cooler.

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      TdeF

      So with billions being spent to predict the future climate of the planet, what we need in Australia. Goldilocks wind at just the right steady speed. Fantasy sunshine, not too hot and not too little. Storms to bring the rain but not to blow down South Australia’s fragile pylons. We need La Niña Loco.

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        TdeF

        Actually in Melbourne we had a very cool summer last year. Cooler this year, despite what the BOM says. The tulips were not open at all for the opening of the tulip farms. Today the heaters are on, after the first few slightly warm days where we nearly reached a terrifying 30C. Not enough rain, so Flannery may be right after all. We are just between droughts. As long as we keep turning off power stations and do not build dams and dump our precious water as ‘environmental flows’, we will get through.

        Meanwhile our caring Premier just legalized the termination of rich old relatives against their wishes, so people may be able to afford his power bills. The current group of extreme left politicians are easily the worst in living memory. Then you get the Greens and Labor party.

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          Dennis

          Worst and on both sides of politics, federal and state, and add too many local governments.

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          Sceptical Sam

          Youth in Asia.

          The people who understand the power of family love and affection.

          It’s never been in the green-left’s bible.

          They’d prefer the death of 6.5 billion souls which would deliver their estimate of the carrying capacity of Earth.

          Certifiable.

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    Robber

    From the Weekend Australian:
    “Flanking the Prime Minister and Frydenberg at the announcement of the latest policy on Tuesday were AEMO chief executive Audrey Zibelman, AER chief executive Paula Conboy, AEMC chair John Pierce and Kerry Schott, the former banker and public servant who heads the Energy Security Board set up to draw them all together”.
    “AEMO’s Zibelman confirmed this week that the operator had been increasingly forced to intervene in the SA market to order gas generation switched on — even when wind and solar was providing all the state’s energy — to insure the system against a sudden drop in generation that could undermine stability of the grid”.
    “Schott says those interventions can be very expensive, and drove AEMO to consider whether there was a way to avoid such orders and drive competition between generators to lower prices”.

    I have been pondering why it now seems that SA gas generators are providing base load including exports to Vic, rather than more generation from coal stations in Vic/NSW. For example, right now, SA demand 876 MW, gas providing 851 from Pelican Point, Osborne and Torrens, wind 382, with exports to Vic of 357 MW.
    In Vic, demand of 4543 MW, supply wind 216, coal/gas 3936, importing 211 from NSW as well as 357 from SA, exporting 177 to Tas.

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    ScotsmanInUtah

    Austrailian Politicians – just Short sighted or just color blind

    Austrailian politicians are a curious bunch …
    It would be interesting to view a historical graph of power supply/consumption alongside Jo’s post, and gauge from it’s history if the public had had to endure such shortfalls in the past.

    Are Austrailian politicians only focussed on “green electrons” or are they forgetting the future 60% increase in energy requirements that the World will need (Assuming OZ will need some othat too if not all)

    Either way , it appears the Australian politicians are not seeing the future needs of its people or accepting the truth about future energy requirements :(

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