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Scientists “thrilled”: fish cope with acidification if tanks mimic normal large daily CO2 swings

The real story here is that past scares claiming that ocean acidification would create reckless fish were most likely an artefact of an inadequate experiment. There are big swings of CO2 and pH in shallow water environments, and the normal day-night cycle turns out to be good for fish. Putting them in a laboratory tank without these daily changes may create fish that behave badly. So ocean acidification is not only natural, but a good and necessary thing.

New hope for reef fish living in a high CO2 world

Chemical changes in the ocean, as a result of climate change, are leading to a more acidic environment, referred to as ‘ocean acidification’ (OA). In a laboratory setting, these changes have been shown to lead to a range of risky behaviours in the affected fish, with some fish unable to flee from their finned foes effectively.

But, when researchers recalibrated experiments to adjust for natural daily changes in concentrations of dissolved carbon dioxide (CO2), the primary chemical driver of OA, they found that the fish were less affected than previously thought.

“Shallow water habitats where reef fish live can experience substantial natural fluctuations in water chemistry throughout the day,” explained senior author Professor Philip Munday, of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies (CoralCoE) at James Cook University.

“For example, carbon dioxide levels on coral reefs are often much lower during the day than they are at night.”

Did you know night time was like man-made global warming? Or more correctly — man-made global warming is like night time (only not as severe).

“Our data suggests that these natural daily changes in water chemistry are enough to provide fish with a recovery period, reducing their sensitivity to higher carbon dioxide levels,” said Michael D. Jarrold, lead author of the study and PhD student at James Cook University.

Who could have known that day time is a recovery period from the ravages of night?

Or thinks Jo, wickedly, perhaps fish already have genes for adapting to climate-change, I mean, the 24 hour cycle? Imagine the poor fish that don’t? Like — what a shock — ocean acidification hits at 7pm again, and I can’t deal with it? Four hundred million years of evolution, and “oh my codfish!” here’s another night I’m not prepared for?

The study published today in Scientific Reports, utilised state-of-the-art facilities at James Cook University and at the Australian Institute of Marine Science’s National Sea Simulator (SeaSim) to mimic the natural conditions of a coral reef environment.

“It’s the first time these dynamic natural conditions have been reproduced in a laboratory setting to test their potential influence on the behaviour of coral reef fish,” explained Mr. Jarrold.

Similar dynamic natural conditions were presumably available in most of the worlds reefs. Surely scientists knew there were big pH swings in natural shallow water? Unless I’m reading this wrongly (see the numbers below), it would be remarkable if fish could not cope with a man-made change that takes 100 years and is 150 times smaller than what some fish deal with every day?

At least, to their credit, this team admitted this was better news than past releases.

“We are thrilled about what we’ve found,” he added. “Our results provide a greater level of optimism for reef fish populations in the future.”

What they could have said was that previous researchers were too quick to announce dire results, and scientists forget how adaptable life can be.

From the paper itself — look at how large the variation is naturally:

In shallow reef areas, diel variation in pCO2 can range anywhere from ±50 to 600 µatm around the mean…

“Diel” means a 24 hour cycle and 600 microatmospheres is apparently loosely equivalent to a bit less than 600ppm. If I’m reading that correctly, it would mean that some fish are coping with something like 300 years worth of man-made climate change every night.   Did someone say man-made climate change is unprecedented? Only since breakfast, and maybe not that long.

When did scientists learn of the large diurnal variation in pH?

I thought, surely scientists have known about the large day-night swings of pH for a long time,  but of the four papers Jarrold cites, only one was published before 2012. (I reported on another different paper in 2012 showing large daily pH variations). So it appears to be a recent discovery that pH shifts so quickly.

Way back in 1995, Kayanne et al  found “reef waters exhibited large diurnal changes ranging from 160 to 520 microatmospheres”. So the clues were there, but perhaps researchers didn’t realize how widespread it was.

The day–night shift in Kayanne et al, changes according “to the light intensity”, and I’m reminded of the corn fields of Ohio that start sucking the CO2 out of the sky at sunrise and slow down when the atmospheric CO2 falls each day by lunch time. CO2 then rises back up each night over the cornfields and the cycle begins again. (Chapman 1954).

The real story here is buried between the lines. This is written up as a “new discovery” shows things won’t be so bad for fish with climate change, but the real story is that scientists are just realizing how much water conditions vary on a daily basis and how well adapted fish are to those big natural swings. Past papers issued dire warnings about fish living under stable low pH conditions, but put fish in tanks with low pH and wild swings, and the fish cope much better.

Ask not if your tank is stable enough, but if it varies enough?

______________
P:S Lastly, here’s an irrelevant curiosity — this paper has the oldest scientific citations I’ve yet seen:

…we reared juvenile damselfish, Acanthochromis polyacanthus (Bleeker, 1855), and clownfish, Amphiprion percula (Lacepède, 1802)…

From the Discussion

This study demonstrates for the first time that diel pCO2 cycles can significantly modify the behavioural responses of fishes under OA. The negative impacts of elevated CO2 on coral reef fish behaviour have been well documented and are expected to have significant ecological consequences for reef fish populations through effects on recruitment, predator-prey interactions, competition and habitat preference102324. However, all studies to date have exposed fish to stable levels of elevated CO2, not considering the natural diel pCO2 cycles that occur on coral reefs. Here we show that the severity of two behavioural abnormalities commonly observed under elevated CO2 are reduced when fish experience a diel cycling pCO2 regime. The extent of reduction was influenced by both the magnitude of fluctuation and mean pCO2 level experienced, as well as the behavioural trait. Overall, our results indicate that previous studies have probably over-estimated the behavioural impacts of OA on coral reef fishes once they have settled to reef habitats where diel CO2 cycles are prevalent.

 

Other information:

 

REFERENCE
Michael D. Jarrold, Craig Humphrey, Mark I. McCormick, Philip L. Munday. (2017) Diel CO2 cycles reduce severity of behavioural abnormalities in coral reef fish under ocean acidificationScientific Reports; 7 (1) DOI: 10.1038/s41598-017-10378-y (Freely available).

Kayanne et al (1995) Diurnal changes in the partial pressure of carbon dioxide in coral reef water. Science. 1995 Jul 14;269(5221):214-6. (Available at Researchgate.)

Press release  |   Source:  ARC Centre of Excellence in Coral Reef Studies.

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143 comments to Scientists “thrilled”: fish cope with acidification if tanks mimic normal large daily CO2 swings

  • #
    Old44

    “At least, to their credit, this team admitted this was better news than past releases.”

    Marvelous the results that surface once the name “Ove” is left out of the credits.

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    • #
      OriginalSteve

      Hmm…who is to say the fish dont notice the increase in CO2 anyway…or….perhaps are insensetive to it, which would really upset the scientists ( cue much waving of arms in air, and running in ever decreasing circles, like the happless Beaker lab assistant, in the Muppets…)

      Hmmmm (2) – what if the sea life was relatively insensitive to CO2?
      That would upset the whole teenage drama…..

      Oh no…they would need some other drama then…..like sands through the hourglass….

      60

    • #
      Geoff

      Any aquarium owner that wants to grow plants knows all about CO2 injectors and how little they affect fish. Obviously the current batch of “researchers” are focused on rent seeking, not the wonder of scientific discovery.

      Go to the local aquarium for real information on CO2, fish and water. For rent seekers go to the government.

      200

    • #
      Sonny

      Anybody else smile a little bit when reading the alliterative sentence – “some Fish not able to Flee From their Finned Foes eFFectively”?

      Also not sure why this is a down side? Don’t the Finned Foes need to eat too?

      Seriously, this “study” seems more like children playing with Fish For Fun, rather than producing anything of Scientific Value.

      Sonny

      20

  • #
    Kevin Lohse

    “Chemical changes in the ocean, as a result of climate change, are leading to a more acidic environment,….” It’s not a more acidic environment, it’s a less alkaline one. If they can get that right, what hope is there in the rest of the paper?

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    • #
      AndyG55

      “not a more acidic environment, it’s a less alkaline one.”

      Modelled pH changes only. I have yet to see any long-term empirical proof of ocean pH changing because of CO2, (there just are not enough measurements available in the past or even in the present)….

      …. just like I have yet to see any measured proof of CO2 causing warming in a convective atmosphere.

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      • #
        AndyG55

        Red thumbs can feel free to present any such empirical proof they think they can.

        I reckon I’ll be waiting ………….. for a long , long time :-)

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    • #
      Hasbeen

      Yes so many scientists lie to the public by the terminology they use, particularly those supporting global warming, it is really disgusting.

      Most of us realise the tern “Ocean Acidification” is a straight lie, designed to push a concept, rather than talk about an effect.

      It is these straight confidence tricks that they apply continually to lie to the less well informed public that has destroyed my belief in any pronouncement by academics. I find I can no longer trust any of them, which is really disappointing.

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    • #
      jpm

      Kevin
      It is worse than that. I thought that the alarmists were always raving that both “Climate Change” and “Ocean Acidification” were caused by increasing atmospheric CO2. Now it seems that the “Chemical changes in the ocean are a result of climate change. They should explain how that occurs, I think.
      Regards
      John

      60

      • #
        Watt

        When they admit CO2 is caused by climate change releasing it from the oceans the circle will have been closed.

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  • #
    KinkyKeith

    The most important thing is that those carrying out this very important work have tenure and can continue to study the issue for as long as it takes to get the full picture.

    As I’ve said before, of the two most important atmospheric gases involved in our human respiratory systems, the most dangerous one in excess is oxygen.

    The other, CO2, is relatively harmless in excess and only becomes a problem when levels in the bloodstream become too low.

    Long live reef, or is that reefer, science.

    No academics from JCU were harmed or impugned during the construction of this article.

    KK

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  • #
    Rereke Whakaaro

    The response from the chatterati is likely to be, “Mea, it’s only the ocean, and who, like, lives there, duh?”.

    Whereas this research shows that at least 70% of the Earth’s surface is doing just fine, and can handle the extra CO2.

    Plants, like food crops, like CO2, too.

    So that brings us down to the Urban ghetto dwellers, who feel the need to have a cause – any cause – to justify their anger about everything!. When they are really angry over their own inadequacy, and lack of intellectual worth.

    321

    • #
      KinkyKeith

      RW
      Over the last few years I have had my eyes opened to the unpleasant reality of how many people live.

      Your last paragraph sums it up accurately.

      There is so much self righteous anger eating away at people and someone else is to blame for their unhappiness.

      A sick world.

      KK

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      • #
        OriginalSteve

        I notice with the advent of social media etc, society is rather focussed on small stuff which is then whipped up into large stuff, and is kind of like being fixated on a tiny crack in the road ( and the social injustice of it), while not realizing an 18 wheeler is about to wear you as a bonnet ornament…..

        It seems as the big challenges ( getting to the moon etc ) die off, all that is left is people obsessing about small stuff, rather than creating new big audacious challenges for humanity ( FYI – I would see developing hydrogen fuel/cheap fuel as a challenge, social issues are just fluff, but are blown up as bigger than they really are….)

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        • #
          Rereke Whakaaro

          I am not sure about the graphic mental image of the truck, Steve. But you are right, and you make a very good point.

          People can get together and focus on achieving something big – like winning a war, for example (not that I recommend having one).

          But if they don’t have something big and audacious to go after, then they will find something small and petty to stand in its’ stead. That is why the whole global warming thing was spontaneously created in the first place.

          We now have the task of winning that ersatz climate “war”. Because if we don’t, somebody, sooner or later, will start a real one.

          Humans, as a species, need a reason for survival. That is why people go for a stroll in the Himalayas in the middle of winter.

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          • #
            Manfred

            That is why the whole global warming thing was spontaneously created in the first place.

            Not so sure about that RW, unless you omitted the /sarc tag?
            I think even Christiana Figueres would disagree, ipse facto:

            “This is the first time in the history of mankind that we are setting ourselves the task of intentionally, within a defined period of time to change the economic development model that has been reigning for at least 150 years, since the industrial revolution.

            Ban Ki-moon, UN secretary general, told delegates at a climate change summit in Copenhagen that big investors such as insurers and pension funds should cut their investments and focus on renewable energy sources instead.

            30

            • #
              Rereke Whakaaro

              The planning wasn’t spontaneous. It must have been orchestrated, and the way it was discovered (if you prefer that phrase), must also have been orchestrated, in order to produce something that appeared to be spontaneous.

              The planning would be done quietly, and under wraps. So, when it was completed; bingo, we had all the evidence required to support the meme. “No further research is necessary”.

              I was trying to be subtle, and not mention the key perpetrators by name. Once you start the list, it goes on and on.

              40

        • #
          el gordo

          Beijing has the situation well in hand with their silk roads and they are already working on a Maglev hyperloop, ideally situated for Australia’s arid conditions.

          40

        • #
          KinkyKeith

          Very well put Steve.

          20

        • #
          jorgekafkazar

          I suspect a lot of it has to do with self-will. Many people are totally in thrall to their own will. When it is thwarted, they react with hatred and malice.

          40

      • #
        Raven

        . . so much self righteous anger eating away at people . .

        Yes, but it’s invariably only an issue in the first world with little else to worry about.

        The poor people in Africa worry about where their next feed is coming from.
        Dare I say, they have bigger fish to fry.

        I’ll see myself out

        60

  • #
    Louis Hissink

    The diurnal behaviour of seawater pH is quite well known but the variation in CO2 is an effect of a more fundamental physical phenomenon, the diurnal formation of EZ or liquid crystal water at the ocean-atmosphere interface described most recently by Gerald Pollack at Washington State University.

    EZ water is spontaneously formed by incident IR and causes the emission of protons from the water into the atmosphere. This emission increases the pH of a thin ocean surface layer to pH +8. The concept is presented at a 2015 Electric Universe conference here

    The effect would be more pronounced in shallow water environments.

    Pollack has suggested that weather, the physical behaviour of the atmosphere, may be more closely related to the diurnal EZ water effect than anything else.

    In addition much ado is made of acid rain and its cause dissolved carbonic acid. However an exhaustive chemical analysis of Australian rain by the CSIRO, data here, (PDF), while recording low pH values in rain, has no chemical evidence for carbonic acid in the rainwater at all. This suggests the measured low pH of rainwater, hence acidic, is more to do with excess protons than the presence of dissolved carbonic acid, for which there is no evidence in this data. Pollack’s EZ water theory could explain this, and it raises the even more interesting idea that solar protons reach the Earth’s surface via rain.

    Clearly the interpretation of acid rain and ocean acidification has more to do with belief systems than the recognition empirical facts. This often happens when you think with a limited number of ideas.

    The diurnal swing in ocean pH, and presumably CO2 as a result, is a no brainer for plasma universe physics. What is surprising is atmospheric proton behaviour and its potential role in driving weather. In a roundabout sense the weather is driven by the Sun, but not by the over simplified thermal mechanism of solar radiation, but by the continuous diurnal formation of EZ water at the ocean/atmosphere interface and the emission of protons, or +ve electric charge into the system, coupled with the solar wind and other near-earth plasma phenomena.

    100

    • #
      Curious George

      Link, please.

      10

      • #
        Curious George

        My apologies, you provided a link to a video. I have a great difficulty with the idea of evaporating protons, and I don’t intend to waste 40 minutes to watch a video. Is there a transcript available?

        30

        • #
          joseph

          Curious George, and anyone else,

          I watched this vid a while back. I think you would find it well worth watching if a transcript isn’t forthcoming. And even if one is. The visuals are good. IMHO

          60

        • #
        • #
          Louis Hissink

          I do not know if there is a transcript but Pollack has published quite a few papers on EZ water etc. Link supplied above. He has also published a more popular book, The Fourth Phase of Water that can be obtained in electronic form as well as paper.

          60

  • #
    sophocles

    It’s been a great week for climate news. :-)

    First, JCU `researchers’ find out that the world of the oceans has been around a lot longer than they have and is even `tricksier’ than their lack of historical knowledge leads them to believe. Oh, the trials and tribulations of youth.

    Or perhaps it’s been a really bad week for AGW/CAGW climate news: :-)

    Second, and this one will send certain websites into much sorrow and great grieving for the loss of their cherished `science.’ Skeptical Science could have run this experiment, and made the same discovery, but didn’t. And, of course, Hot Whopper will be bereft. (Umm, no, it won’t, it’s still got Anthony Watts to beat up.)

    NotricksZone reports on a real experiment which disproves the particular and specific effects of CO2 and other gases charged with being `Greenhouse Gases.’ The experiment ( Paper here (pdf)) discovers that air can do it (warm, that is, from incident IR) all on its own without any need for GHGs.

    From the paper’s conclusions:

    … the here reported investigation reveals the discovery of direct absorption of shortwave IR-radiation by air. It is part of the incident solar light, but also of artificial light which enables a more exact detection.

    Well, fancy that. CO2 is not necessary. Air can do it all on it’s own. Dr Allmendinger is a physicist, so the first charges which will be flung by the warmistas is that he’s “not a klimate scientist.” He controlled for possible water vapour (relative humidity) with:

    As separate measurement yielded, no significant difference could be found between ambient air and a pure nitrogen/oxygen 4:1 mixture. Furthermore, no pressure influence could be detected.

    so it wasn’t that.

    Okay, all youse Klimate skientists can refund all your grants, starting now. That means you [insert your favourite love-to-hate-klimatist here]. Since AGW is `a phantasm,’ you lot, starting with the IPCC, can ante up.
    SA: you can go back to coal generation. Wind is not a solution because there is no problem.
    Dr Finkel: back to the drawing board for you.

    151

    • #
      KinkyKeith

      The obvious experiment.

      If that’s not the end of it perhaps we should discontinue teaching science in schools and issue prayer mats instead.

      KK

      50

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        A lot of schools have enacted the new green religion anyway…..

        Ironically, a lot of universities were set up by religious organizations as a way of better understanding the world around them that God had created.

        I find the new green religion seems less interested in knowledge, but rather maintaining an orthodoxy above all. Ironically, this is the precise thing Jesus railed against, and he berated the religious officals of the day over such a thing.

        The reality is a faith and science can happily co-exist – Isaac Newton was better known for his religious work, his maths came second, but in a secular world, his maths is promoted as the primary thing, as you would expect….

        71

    • #
      Raven

      Dr Finkel: back to the drawing board for you.

      I reckon we should encourage Sen. Malcolm Roberts to present this paper to Dr Finkel and ask for his appraisal.

      As I understand it, Dr Finkel hasn’t provided Sen. Roberts with the empirical evidence he requested.
      This would be an opportunity for Dr Finkel.
      He is our chief scientist, after all.

      20

  • #
    Tom O

    So CO2 builds up over night and goes down during the day. Hard to believe that all that CO2 happens while the fish are more or less sleeping, as are the plants, and with the coming of daylight, the plants get fed big time. Doesn’t that sort of sound like a natural cycle?

    131

    • #
      Dennis

      Natural cycles are so old fashioned

      sarc

      60

    • #

      “Doesn’t that sort of sound like a natural cycle?”
      Yep. My sensor shows +/- 380 ppm mornings after sunrise, rises after midday, goes over 400 around sunset, usually 425 – 450 after 9pm. Little change over 5 years. I am downwind of a large area of mangroves, a declared fish habitat area. It is certainly fruitful habitat. Pops and sploshes all day and (probably) all night. Pungent brew of decaying matter from ocean and terrestrial sources. A bit difficult to monitor unless there are boardwalks in place. (The channels and outer boundary are patrolled by Crocodylus porosus.)

      70

  • #
    Ruairi

    We can all breathe a sigh of relief,
    That fish lives will not come to grief,
    As we know they survive,
    Lower pH and thrive,
    When studied at night near a reef.

    160

  • #
    Greg Cavanagh

    Now that alarmism is dying down, they need to do real research again.
    All I can do it point and laugh at them. Ha Haa!

    40

  • #
    Curious George

    We don’t know as much about biological systems as about physics. An experiment in physics sets up its environment – and then produces data. In biology we are not really sure how to set up an environment, it is too complex. We compensate for it by creating a “control set” of animals in the same artificial environment, and then recording differences between the control set and the experimental set. I am getting a feeling that most experiments with alarming results did not follow this standard methodology.

    50

    • #
      joseph

      And, curiously, George, there are experiments which should have had alarming results, but didn’t, because they didn’t follow the standard methodolgy.

      40

    • #
      Raven

      And of course, if we’re talking about the Earth, we only have a sample size of one in any case.

      10

  • #
    el gordo

    Ocean acidification is referred to as the ‘evil twin’, hopefully the environment editor at the Oz will set the matter straight.

    30

  • #
    John F. Hultquist

    From: http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0028983
    High-Frequency Dynamics of Ocean pH: A Multi-Ecosystem Comparison [Dec. 2011]

    These observations reveal a continuum of month-long pH variability with standard deviations from 0.004 to 0.277 and ranges spanning 0.024 to 1.430 pH units. The nature of the observed variability was also highly site-dependent, with characteristic diel, semi-diurnal, and stochastic patterns of varying amplitudes.

    Note: “with characteristic diel,

    The word “characteristic” seems to mean that those studying ocean pH have know about this for some time.
    But I learned English in an American school, so what do I know?

    70

    • #
      sophocles

      John said:

      But I learned English in an American school, so what do I know?

      Quite a lot, it appears.
      Only, you learned American, a dialect of English in your American school. You aren’t alone: I learned another dialect of English in a colonial school (with the accent to prove it), and I hadn’t met diel either. I guess neither of us studied biology …

      From the Miriam-Webster dictionary: (that’s American, isn’t it?)

      Definition of diel
      : involving a 24-hour period that usually includes a day and the adjoining night: diel fluctuations in temperature
      First Known Use: 1934

      and from my The New Oxford English Dictionary comes:

      diel adjective Biology: denoting or involving a
      period of 24 hours: tidal and diel cycles.
      ORIGIN: 1930s: from Latin ‘dies
      : day’.

      Well, both books agree. That’s not a first and it’s not all that uncommon, but they agree! :-)
      Learn something new all the time. Having had a bit Latin at school many years ago, in my youth, (I know why the Romans died off! Sheer boredom! Latin, urgh.) it occurred to me that dies might be involved. Diel is a pretty recent word and was probably coined as part of a specialty vocabulary.

      50

  • #
    • #
      Robert Rosicka

      Yeah but it’s warm snow Dennis .

      50

      • #
        Dennis

        I can almost hear the television news weather presenter: In the south slightly colder than normal but in the north it is baking hot and the average is another all time record heat for the time of year.

        70

        • #
          Robert Rosicka

          Well done Dennis that’s pretty much exactly how their ABC is reporting it , yes it’s snowing down to 200 metres but look at the fire danger in the north of the country .

          50

          • #
            Dennis

            In January 1993 I was holidaying in Port Macquarie, NSW, when bushfires resulted in all roads closed, south, west and north of Sydney. It was mentioned on recent news about the present season fire dangers.

            As I recall we have had similar weather conditions prevailing over the past few years, wildflowers have been at their best for decades and I travelled to WA last year to see the spectacular of flowers. Therefore, thanks to all the rainfall and weather conditions generally there is now a huge amount of fuel on the ground and bushfires are inevitable.

            But we can guarantee that the climate alarmists will swing into action blaming global warming for the weather and fire material.

            A friend who was raised in a Snowy Mountains Victoria cattle grazing family and who rides Horses into the high country regularly explained that the grazing land there was Aborigine native grasslands managed by fire on a seasonal basis in accordance with their customs. But in more recent times the Greens and their government allies have successfully banned cattle grazing on the grounds that the animals are ruining natural vegetation. My friend is also a bushfire brigade officer and said that the native grasses are now being replaced by blackberry bushes and other ground cover that attacks very hot fires, as compared to the much cooler and safer fires of the past when the native grasslands were managed.

            ABC, the taxpayer funded broadcaster, and SBS too, should concentrate on the facts and tell the truth.

            60

            • #
              Dennis

              Not about fires, about native grasslands managed by fire for thousands of years, I recently viewed a video about colonisation of Australia from 1888 and one segment referred to missing cattle from Sydney Town that settlers believed had been stolen by the Aborigines.

              Years later when explorers discovered what is now the Camden District south west of Sydney CBD they also discovered a herd of very healthy cattle grazing on native grasslands near a permanent water supply source.

              40

              • #
                Robert Rosicka

                They are now calling the warmest winter eveahhhh in the south of the country , amongst reporting snow in unusual places .
                And now saying we are now facing the worst bushfire season evahhhhh , is it any wonder people become complacent with all the crying wolf that’s going on .
                We aren’t stupid , this winter has been cold , very cold , stop telling us it’s hot when we’re freezing , we now don’t believe a word the authorities say and who could blame us .

                61

  • #
    exArding James

    So when will the JCU apology to Dr Bob Carter for treating him so badly be forthcoming?

    90

  • #
    Lionell Griffith

    Being a member of the green blob means you believe you never have to say you are sorry for being wrong.

    What they don’t understand is the truth in that ancient fable about the boy who cried wolf too often. Eventually no one will listen to them.

    81

    • #
      Analitik

      Similar to the LGTB marriage equality lobby mentality. Self-righteously alienating the normal population through their utter conviction and outright hostility to any contrary viewpoint.

      81

      • #
        ROM

        Yeh! I’ve gone from a soft “no” which included an element of a “maybe” to a very hardline “NO” precisely because of those arrogant thuggish “destroy those who don’t toe our line” attitudes of the hard left LGBT “Get Up” thugs.

        81

        • #
          Dennis

          GetUp established by union boss Bill Shorten using union membership funds without asking the union members for approval.

          He also obtained ongoing funding from the union movement and from foreigner billionaire socialist George Soros.

          40

      • #
        Dennis

        As with their SSM tantrums.

        40

    • #
      el gordo

      A win for coal.

      ‘Greens MP Adam Bandt labelled the Government’s moves to keep Liddell open “criminal”.

      “To meet the climate targets set in Paris, Australia needs to start closing one coal-fired power station every year,” he said.

      “Instead, the Liberals are criminally trying to keep these polluters open and Labor looks ready to aid and abet them.”

      ABC

      40

  • #
    Earl

    From my understanding of pH, in order to become acid, an alkaline liquid must first pass through pH 7, and so become fresh, pure water, on its journey to acidity.
    Funny that one never hears that the oceans are turning into fresh water. imagine the possibilities if that were to happen.
    it is just not scary.

    71

  • #
    Ian1946

    O/T I have just seen an article in the Australian saying that a lack of base level power will cause electricity prices to rise.

    90

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      Yea…the classic NWO Helgian Dialectic at work:

      Crisis-Reaction-Solution

      Create a Crisis – ( artifically lift power prices through deliberately sabotaging supply )

      Manage the Reaction ( MSM news creates & guides the hysteria )

      Provide the Solution – install more ( now at same almost-viable ridiculous high prices ) renewables to be the “saviour” to “the crisis we had to have”

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    Robert Rosicka

    Anything from ARC gets the same reaction from me as “ocean acidification ” , ” rising sea levels” and my favorite ” research suggests” , no science here only grant seekers desperate for munnay.

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      Dennis

      With the cost of living rising as electricity pricing trickles down the goods and services supply chains, and including via government and local government bodies passing the rising electricity costs on, no wonder the lower wage earners and welfare recipients are in trouble.

      Australia already had 1 in every 8 people living in poverty before the madness set in.

      With all the other snouts in the trough Australia is heading to become the next Greece, joining PIIGS nations (PIGGSA).

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  • #
    toorightmate

    Every day, for decades, I have trotted down to the beach and put my strip of litmus paper in the water.
    Nothing ever changes!!!!
    Do I have a bad brand of litmus paper?

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    Reasonable Skeptic

    This is pretty funny because I made this assumption when I first heard of this so called issue. Rivers dump fresh water into oceans so that fresh water is going to impact the local water. Currents will obviously mix the fresh water in a non uniform manner.

    I have always claimed Logic>Data>Science. Since logic told me PH would be variable I knew long term changes in PH was far below natural variability.

    Score another in my column.

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    We have a planet which refuses to behave like a glass receptacle or water tank in laboratory confines. I conclude that the planet is over-sized, volatile, unstable, uncontrolled and not suitable for empirical observation or serious inquiry. Forget the planet, okay?

    We have to get real, to quote Carmen Lawrence. We need more real data from inside a real tank in a real laboratory. Once we have that real data we make real policy, and once we have real policy we make real targets, and once we have real targets…we throw masses of borrowed money in the vague direction of those targets, past gangs of crony capitalists and swarms of Marxist leeches.

    Remember, a fish in the tank is worth a million in the ocean.

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  • #
    STJOHNOFGRAFTON

    Oceans are huge buffer systems operating in accordance with the law of chemical equilibrium. Ergo, life threatening ocean acidification is bull!

    Sham researchers: do something meaningful. Eat your lab coats.

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    • #
      Rereke Whakaaro

      Better still, eat each other’s lab coats, and wonder what it was that caused those particular stains.

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    Dennis

    A reminder: Twilight Of Abundance written by David Archibald – why life in the 21st century will be nasty, brutish, and short.

    James Delingpole commented;

    “Global warming? We wish! As Archibald persuasively argues, it’s global cooling which is – and always has been – the far greater threat.

    And now the worst is almost upon us: rising energy prices; food shortages; cooler summers; and harsher winters.

    What do we do? Read this terrifying, fascinating, well-informed book, for a start, and act before it’s too late.”

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      el gordo

      Without reading the book I don’t accept his hypothesis, global cooling will bring about a universal infrastructure build, growth and prosperity.

      In the 21st century food shortages and mass starvation seem unlikely, except if war intervenes preventing aid getting through.

      A trend towards a cooler climate should take on the appearance of a Dalton Minimum (a couple of years without sunspots) but nothing is certain. Anyway, by then the industrial revolution had begun and there was no looking back.

      The other thing worth mentioning is that Archibald’s earlier temperature projection was wrong, it should have begun descending in 2003 and by now we would have been in the thick of it.

      Still we are punting on a lag in the system, so we can wait and see if Archibald is correct in his assumption that ‘the temperature decline will be as steep as that of the 1970s cooling scare, but will go on for longer.’

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      • #
        sophocles

        Phil Jones, then head of the CRU, East Anglia, said in a 2008 interview with the Beeb (since taken down, we can wonder why …):

        “…been a cooling trend since 2003 but it’s not statistically significant.”.

        Then there were the rugged winters Britain and Ireland suffered a few years afterward. Remember that satellite photo of the whole of Britain dressed in snow?

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        • #
          el gordo

          That is correct, the oscillations slot into place and gradually the climate changes, so Archibald might be right. I’ll draw your attention to the frozen Thames of 1788-89 just as the Dalton officially kicked off.

          We need to concentrate on weather anomaly and not so much on seasonal temperature variation.

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            sophocles

            From what Dr Brian Fagan wrote in “The Little Ice Age, How Climate Made History” the weather was not uniformly cold but highly variable, unpredictably so, with the exception of rain. If it wasn’t raining, it was about to. Cloud cover was plentiful.

            The biggest problem was the weather’s unpredictability: crops could be brought to maturity only to be ruined just be before harvest; or the weather for the spring planting could be just wonderful and a few weeks later it was freezing and snowing, killing the newly sprouted seeds. We’ve seen some of that since 2003, and especially over the last twelve months.

            Winter lasted until the end of spring across much of Europe this year. The Poles had to postpone the change of tires on their vehicles from winter to summer ones because of snow and frost right to the last week of spring.

            We have a good account of the weather during the Dalton in Charles Dickens books, so we can’t say we don’t know what we can expect if we pay attention.

            I think Archibald is more right than wrong, but the effects he’s predicting aren’t as intense nor as sudden as most of his critics seem to expect. With solar minimum only three years away, solar activity is definitely low and GCR flux is registering ever higher, so we can expect more cloud. With more cloud, there’s lower temperatures, but by how much or how little?

            Speaking of cloud, there won’t be the predicted heatwaves. They require clear, cloud-free skies for several days, minimum. Heh, that will not be reported.

            Off topic but sort of relevant: I’m watching Hurricane Irma. It’s currently Cat 3. There have been an M-class flare late Sunday or early Monday (depends on your position relative to the dateline) from a sizzling sun-spot group on the sun. The CME will hit us head-on sometime about the sixth (tomorrow). Irma may become Cat 5 then.

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        Graeme No.3

        el gordo;

        with the recent (and older) evidence of temperature manipulation, how do we know if it hasn’t started getting cooler?

        And given the information in a recent article on this blog whether the desperate attempts to adjust the figures from un-calibrated meters to show warming are at all correct?

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    ROM

    As this all seems to have its origins in the James Cook University again, am I to gather that James Cook Uni is running a bit light on the funding required to maintain their academic’s life style.?

    But if James cook Univeersity researchers ever got out of the comforts of the laboratory and away from their aquarium tanks and made it as far as the library or a computer with an internet link somewhere they might find that an “extreme” as in “extreme conditions” ocean system that should be lifeless according to all the theories propounded by the acidic ocean alarmists, actually exists in significant numbers in the deep oceans.
    These Black and white smokers as they are called are covered and littered with a phenomenal amount of life of quite an unexpected variations surrounding them and in fact, life forms and fish and etc that are totally reliant on the chemicals from the smokers to maintain those life forms in the deep dark ocean depths.

    Those natural acidic near the Ph of vinegar sources of life are the “Black Smokers” and “White Smokers” of the Hydro Thermal vents on the rifts and faults of the ocean depths around the world.

    What is hydrothermal vent?

    A hydrothermal vent is a crack or breakage in the Earth’s surface. Water which is heated by the internal heat of the Earth is released from the vent. The source of this water is cold sea water (2oC) which seeps into the fractures and is heated by the hot magma (1400oC) found in shallow chambers under the sea floor.

    There are two general types of hydrothermal vents. One is where water spreads out over a large area.The temperature of this water is between 10 and 20°C. Typical bottom temperature of the ocean is about 2°C.

    &
    What are the physical conditions near a hydrothermal vent?

    The superheated water is at temperature from 60°C up to over 450°C and because of the high pressures at depths the water has physical properties between a gas and a liquid.

    The water is also extremely acidic, often having a pH value under 3.0, similar to vinegar.

    Vents can grow up to 30 cm per day and consist of many minerals including calcium sulphate and sulfides of copper, iron and zinc.

    Black smokers release “smoke” which is made up of particles containing high levels of sulphur-containing minerals or sulfides.

    White smokers are vents that release lighter-coloured minerals, such as those containing barium, calcium, and silicon. These vents also tend to have lower temperature plumes.

    &
    What animals live near hydrothermal vents?

    The chemosynthetic bacteria are found as large, thick mats or living in symbiotic relationships with vent animals such as tube worms and giant clams.

    The bacterial mats are grazed by other microorganisms such as amphipods and copepods.
    These provide for a food web containing other animals including limpets, shrimp, crabs, tube worms, fish, and octopi.
    Other animals found in vent communities can include acorn worms, dandelion-like animals, mussels, a variety of worms, anemones and other species of shrimp and tube worms.

    Animals that feed directly on the bacteria – the first-order consumers, include animals like zooplankton and small crustaceans such as shrimp and amphipods, which feed directly on the vent bacteria. Second-order consumers feed on the first-order, these include smaller crabs and fish.
    Tertiary or top-level consumers feed on the first order carnivores and include larger crabs, octopus and fishes.
    Some species of crabs and fish are detritovores, feeding on dead animals and their remains, in the community.

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      toorightmate

      I believe it may soon be renamed “Bennelong University”.

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      Raven

      As this all seems to have its origins in the James Cook University again, am I to gather that James Cook Uni is running a bit light on the funding required to maintain their academic’s life style.?

      The nation’s 38 public university vice-chancellors were paid an averag­e salary package of $890,000 last year, with 11 earning more than $1 million.

      Universities have budgets, cash-flows and expenses just like any other business.
      If they spot a research funding source like for instance Climate Science™, they will adopt a strategy to take advantage of that.
      They’ll open a “Centre of Excellence”, employ staff, set up a curriculum and enrol students. It’s a business model.
      It’s also a make work exercise.

      Thus, it should be no surprise that the much vaunted claim that “every university in the world” supports AGW is probably true . . or true enough. Why the hell wouldn’t it be?
      If I was on a university governance committee, that’s exactly what I would do.

      It should also be no surprise that we see so many pissy little meaningless PhD thesis papers appearing all over the place from the explosion of student numbers.

      Your taxes at work.

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    sophocles

    ROM said:

    am I to gather that James Cook Uni is running a bit light on the funding required to maintain their academic’s life style?

    Maybe they’ve run particularly light on the funding to maintain their academic, intellectual, scientific and moral rigour.
    Enough of the non-sequitur.

    Animal life forms are acid-based (the A in DNA = Acid). Life thrives in acidic conditions, as you’ve pointed out. Because the oceans are alkaline, lifeforms have a bit of a struggle to survive away from handy acidic vents, having to adopt various defences against the hostile alkaline environment. As a single example: eels exude a slime to cover their skin to protect it.

    Because of that, I’ve always found the concept of Ocean Acidification to be not a disaster but amusing. I can just hear “Acidification? Bring it on!

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    RoHa

    “past scares claiming that ocean acidification would create reckless fish were most likely an artefact of an inadequate experiment. ”

    So we won’t see reckless fish riding bikes while not wearing helmets?

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    RoHa

    “past scares claiming that ocean acidification would create reckless fish were most likely an artifact of an inadequate experiment. ”

    So we won’t see reckless fish riding bikes while not wearing helmets?

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    Geoffrey Williams

    James Cook University; what have we got there – scientists or thrill seekers? I am not impressed. And if they were wrong about reef fish they could be wrong about reef coral.
    GeoffW

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    AndyG55 @#2.1, I agree that empirical proof that CO2 causes significant warming. Is lacking.
    For example, Abbott and Nicol, in their essay in Climate Change the Facts 2017, state that CO2-caused warming is approximately one-tenth of that currently assumed. Namely, warming due to CO2 is,

    “…an order of magnitude less than values currently inserted in General Circulation Models that are used to influence global energy policy and emission limits.”

    Additionally, Nikolov & Zeller (2017) propose that the Earth’s (and other planets) temperature is due to the pressure induced by the atmosphere and is independent of atmospheric composition.

    Consequently, they call for,

    a paradigm shift in our understanding of the atmospheric ‘greenhouse effect’ as a fundamental property of climate.

    Finally, the link by Sophocles @ #6 to the paper by Allmendinger (2017) goes further by stating that,

    …the greenhouse theory turns out to be a phantasm delivering the wrong diagnosis for the climate change, and a wrong diagnosis cannot enable a healing.”

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    • #
    • #
      Roger

      “propose that the Earth’s (and other planets) temperature is due to the pressure induced by the atmosphere and is independent of atmospheric composition.”

      Now that is fascinating and something I have neither heard nor considered previously – but at first sight seems fairly logical, but I don’t see that it can be independent of other factors. I’m not sure that the ‘atmospheric composition’ could be irrelevant as the density and thus pressure must depend on the molecular weight of the gases it is composed of; equally the energy supplied by the sun is a major factor.

      As for the greenhouse theory – it has shown itself to be pure fantasy.

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  • #
    el gordo

    ‘Turnbull government opens talks with energy company AGL to keep one of the company’s vast coal-fired power plants open longer.’

    Oz

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    pat

    sophocles (23.1.1) –
    were u writing about this Phil Jones interview?

    13 February 2010: BBC: Q&A: Professor Phil Jones
    BBC: B – Do you agree that from 1995 to the present there has been no statistically-significant global warming?
    PHIL JONES: Yes, but only just. I also calculated the trend for the period 1995 to 2009. This trend (0.12C per decade) is positive, but not significant at the 95% significance level…

    BBC: C – Do you agree that from January 2002 to the present there has been statistically significant global cooling?
    PHIL JONES: No. This period is even shorter than 1995-2009. The trend this time is negative (-0.12C per decade), but this trend is not statistically significant.

    BBC: D – Do you agree that natural influences could have contributed significantly to the global warming observed from 1975-1998, and, if so, please could you specify each natural influence and express its radiative forcing over the period in Watts per square metre.
    PHIL JONES: This area is slightly outside my area of expertise. When considering changes over this period we need to consider all possible factors (so human and natural influences as well as natural internal variability of the climate system). Natural influences (from volcanoes and the Sun) over this period could have contributed to the change over this period. Volcanic influences from the two large eruptions (El Chichon in 1982 and Pinatubo in 1991) would exert a negative influence. Solar influence was about flat over this period. Combining only these two natural influences, therefore, we might have expected some cooling over this period…

    BBC: F – Sceptics of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) suggest that the official surface record paints a different story from the actual station records. To restore trust, should we start again with new quality control on input data in total transparency?
    PHIL JONES: …Through the Met Office we have released (as of 29 January 2010) 80% of the station data that enters the CRU analysis (CRUTEM3).
    The graphic in the link below shows that the global land temperature series from these 80% of stations (red line) replicates the analysis based on all 100% of stations (black line).
    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/science/monitoring/data-graphic.GIF
    The locations of the 80% of stations are shown on the next link in red. The stations we have yet to get agreement to release are shown in grey.
    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/science/monitoring/locations.GIF

    I accept that some have had their trust in science shaken and this needs the Met Office to release more of the data beyond the 80% released so far. Before all the furore broke we had begun discussions with the Met Office for an updated set of station temperatures. With any new station dataset we will make sure we will be able to release all the station temperature data and give source details for all the series…

    BBC: G – There is a debate over whether the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) was global or not. If it were to be conclusively shown that it was a global phenomenon, would you accept that this would undermine the premise that mean surface atmospheric temperatures during the latter part of the 20th Century were unprecedented?
    PHIL JONES: There is much debate over whether the Medieval Warm Period was global in extent or not. The MWP is most clearly expressed in parts of North America, the North Atlantic and Europe and parts of Asia. For it to be global in extent the MWP would need to be seen clearly in more records from the tropical regions and the Southern Hemisphere. There are very few palaeoclimatic records for these latter two regions.

    Of course, if the MWP was shown to be global in extent and as warm or warmer than today (based on an equivalent coverage over the NH and SH) then obviously the late-20th century warmth would not be unprecedented. On the other hand, if the MWP was global, but was less warm that today, then current warmth would be unprecedented.

    We know from the instrumental temperature record that the two hemispheres do not always follow one another. We cannot, therefore, make the assumption that temperatures in the global average will be similar to those in the northern hemisphere…

    BBC: N – When scientists say “the debate on climate change is over”, what exactly do they mean – and what don’t they mean?
    PHIL JONES: It would be supposition on my behalf to know whether all scientists who say the debate is over are saying that for the same reason. I don’t believe the vast majority of climate scientists think this. This is not my view. There is still much that needs to be undertaken to reduce uncertainties, not just for the future, but for the instrumental (and especially the palaeoclimatic) past as well…
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8511670.stm#

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      sophocles

      It seems right.

      Well discovered, Pat.

      I had the page bookmarked and tried to return to it quite some time ago, but, for some reason I couldn’t. I admit to being in a hurry and just shrugged and left it. I won’t apologize to the Beeb, though. They’ve annoyed me badly in too many other ways to deserve one.

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    Streetcred

    I thought, surely scientists have known about the large day-night swings of pH for a long time, but of the four papers Jarrold cites, only one was published before 2012. (I reported on another different paper in 2012 showing large daily pH variations). So it appears to be a recent discovery that pH shifts so quickly.

    Way back in 1995, Kayanne et al found “reef waters exhibited large diurnal changes ranging from 160 to 520 microatmospheres”. So the clues were there, but perhaps researchers didn’t realize how widespread it was.

    LOL, they’re that dim ? Amateur marine aquarists have known this for decades!

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    • #
      ROM

      .
      But they didn’t tell their grant funders they already knew that did they?

      And theyn ain’t going to tell those grant funders this time around either unless some goddamn bloody Skeptic sticks his nose in where it is completely unwanted and claims that “Amateur marine aquarists have known this for decades!”

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  • #
    ROM

    .
    Oh! How the Mighty have Fallen!
    And fall and fall and fall they will continue to do!

    The Daily Caller

    Al Gore Outsold On Kindle By An E-Book Debunking ‘An Inconvenient Sequel’

    [ And this is where you really have to have damn good laugh at climate con artist Gores no doubt livid expense.]

    Former Vice President Al Gore’s new book is lagging in sales, and, in fact, is being outsold on Amazon Kindle by an e-book debunking many of the claims made in “An Inconvenient Sequel.

    Climatologist Roy Spencer authored an e-book “An Inconvenient Deception” to critique the “bad science, bad policy and some outright falsehoods” in Gore’s latest movie and book, which were released in August.
    Now, it’s ranked higher in Amazon’s Kindle store.

    “There are three big weaknesses in Gore’s new movie: science, economics and energy policy,” Spencer, a noted skeptic of catastrophic global warming, told The Daily Caller News Foundation.

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      sophocles

      ROM:
      That’s good news for us and an even worse week for CAGW/AGW!

      Long may Roy’s book soar above the propaganda.

      Most heartening, indeed. :-) .

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    William

    More CO2 in the water? Excellent, we can look forward to bumper crops of seaweed and all the benefits that it brings to sea life – and for commercially harvested seaweed.

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    Paul

    There is a detailed discussion of ocean pH, the daily changes in pH, etc., posted some ten years ago at: and: and:
    That fish are tolerant of such changes in pH is a logical conclusion.

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    pat

    MSM has begun to pick this one up:

    4 Sept: ScienceDaily: More ‘losers’ than ‘winners’ predicted for Southern Ocean seafloor animals
    Source:British Antarctic Survey
    Summary:A new study of the marine invertebrates living in the seas around Antarctica reveals there will be more ‘losers’ than ‘winners’ over the next century as the Antarctic seafloor warms…
    The results are published in the journal Nature Climate Change this week (Monday 4 September)…
    A team at British Antarctic Survey (BAS) examined the potential distribution of over 900 species of shelf-dwelling marine invertebrates under a warming scenario produced by computer models. They conclude that, while some species in some areas will benefit, 79% of the species native to the region will lose out…

    Lead author, Dr Huw Griffiths from BAS says: “While a few species might thrive at least during the early decades of warming, the future for a whole range of invertebrates from starfish to corals is bleak, and there’s nowhere to swim to, nowhere to hide when you’re sitting on the bottom of the world’s coldest and most southerly ocean and it’s getting warmer by the decade.”

    Dr Andrew Meijers, an oceanographer at BAS says: “The waters around Antarctica are isolated, deep and very cold but they are not beyond the reach of climate change. Southern Ocean seafloor water temperatures are projected to warm by an average of 0.4 °C over this century with some areas possibly increasing by as much as 2°C. We’ve shown that the effects of this warming will have dramatic consequences for the future biodiversity of the region.”…
    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/09/170904120405.htm

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    pat

    Daily Mail has picked up this one, so other MSM will surely follow:

    5 Sept: The Conversation: Two centuries of continuous volcanic eruption may have triggered the end of the ice age
    by Joe McConnell, Research Professor, and Director of the Ultra-Trace Chemistry Laboratory, Desert Research Institute
    Disclosure statement: Joe McConnell receives funding from U.S. National Science Foundation.
    In research published today in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, an international group of researchers and I discovered that a unique, 192-year series of massive volcanic eruptions coincided exactly with the onset of this period of rapid, widespread Southern Hemisphere climate change…

    These abrupt climate changes included the pronounced retreat of glaciers in Patagonia and New Zealand and reduced aridity in southern Australia. Lakes rapidly expanded in the Bolivian Andes, and summertime rain in subtropical Brazil increased. Atmospheric dust, recorded in ocean sediment and Antarctic ice cores, was sharply reduced.
    Many of these changes have been attributed to a sudden poleward shift in westerly winds encircling Antarctica…

    What our research explains for the first time is why the winds suddenly changed, and why there was a simultaneous climate transformation across the whole Southern Hemisphere.
    Clues within the ice
    Antarctica has always been home to globally significant volcanoes. However, 17,700 years ago a unique event began: nearly continuous volcanic eruptions over 192 years that spewed huge amounts of chemicals known as halogens into the Antarctic atmosphere…READ ON
    FROM COMMENTS – 4 ONLY AT TIME OF POSTING:
    Ross Barrell (Aikido student): HI Prof McConnell. Very interesting article. Unfortunately I can’t look at the PNAS article. Your link leads to a sign in page http://www.pnas.org/embargo?embargoed-uri=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.pnas.org%2Fcontent%2Fearly%2F2017%2F08%2F29%2F1705595114 and states This item has not been released to the Public…ETC
    https://theconversation.com/two-centuries-of-continuous-volcanic-eruption-may-have-triggered-the-end-of-the-ice-age-83420

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    • #
      Graeme No.3

      40 years of otherwise unemployable academics standing on one leg while hoisting an (unlit) gas stove on their heads and hopping backwards until Christmas may have signalled the end of the last ice age. Or perhaps not.

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      sophocles

      Okay, so how does the research account for all the previous inter-stadials, and their periodicity? They couldn’t all be due to cyclic volcanism?

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    pat

    lol:

    1 Sept: Geoscientific Model Development (An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union):
    Development and technical paper
    Practice and philosophy of climate model tuning across six US modeling centers
    Authors: ***Gavin A. Schmidt, David Bader, Leo J. Donner, Gregory S. Elsaesser, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Cecile Hannay, Andrea Molod, Richard B. Neale, and Suranjana Saha

    Abstract. Model calibration (or “tuning”) is a necessary part of developing and testing coupled ocean–atmosphere climate models regardless of their main scientific purpose. There is an increasing recognition that this process needs to become more transparent for both users of climate model output and other developers. Knowing how and why climate models are tuned and which targets are used is essential to avoiding possible misattributions of skillful predictions to data accommodation and vice versa. This paper describes the approach and practice of model tuning for the six major US climate modeling centers.

    While details differ among groups in terms of scientific missions, tuning targets, and tunable parameters, there is a core commonality of approaches. However, practices differ significantly on some key aspects, in particular, in the use of initialized forecast analyses as a tool, the explicit use of the historical transient record, and the use of the present-day radiative imbalance vs. the implied balance in the preindustrial era as a target…READ ON
    https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/10/3207/2017/

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    • #
      Graeme No.3

      pat:

      For some reason a cooment by the late Arthur Bryant comes to mind….From a shaky assumption he argued with impeccable logic to an unlikely conclusion.

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      sophocles

      Dr Allmendinger’s new research wrecks most of these models, completely. They’re all heavily biased for CO2 and CO2 doesn’t work, it’s “a phantasm.”

      Ah, hang on a minim. Maybe that’s why they need so much tuning?
      Got to get all those Unicorns trotting in sync … and choreograph the pixies to work in time with them.

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    pat

    5 Sept: news.com.au: South eastern Australia’s freezing snap set to last all week
    SEVERE weather warnings are in place for two states as an Antarctic fulled cold snap makes it feel as cold as -22C in some areas.
    by Benedict Brook
    Melbourne is forecast to reach just 13C on Tuesday, more than 4C below average. Yet in the morning commute it felt more as low as 2C.
    It could even snow today on the Dandenong Ranges, on the city’s fringe.
    But that’s nothing compared to the ski resort of Thredbo in southern NSW. The official low was a frigid -7.7C but the apparent temperature, how it actually feels when you’re outside, was a glacial -22C at 6am on Tuesday…

    “We have showers, hail, thunderstorms, low level snow down to 200 meters in Melbourne and also parts of Tasmania,” said Ms Chiari.
    “It’s safe to say it’s absolutely freezing with below average temperatures.”
    In the Apple Isle snow has been reported as low as 100 metres while black ice has formed on the main highway linking Hobart and Launceston…READ ON
    http://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/south-eastern-australias-freezing-snap-set-to-last-all-week/news-story/022b0826f6112660c02a34e36a3ca2fc

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    pat

    make of this what you will. just heard Bolt talking on Steve Price show. they played AGL ad boasting of getting out of coal. said Vesey had also tweeted Abbott, again stating they are getting out of coal. yet you have Turnbull/Frydenberg/Canavan sort of suggesting AGL might change its mind, or sell Liddell to someone else? total shambles:

    5 Sept: Australian: AAP: Govt in talks to keep coal generator open
    The federal government is talking to the operator of a NSW coal-fired power station about how to keep it open beyond its slated closure date, including finding a new owner.
    Malcolm Turnbull on Tuesday spoke with current owners AGL about ways the Liddell generator could continue operating for at least five years after 2022.

    Mr Turnbull conceded the company wants to get out of coal but revealed AGL chief Andy Vesey was “prepared to sell to a reasonable party” to keep it going.
    “I’m not interested particularly in who owns Liddell and it is only an option,” he told reporters on Tuesday night.
    Asked whether the government would buy it, Mr Turnbull said: “I think it’s better that the private sector owns generators like that.”
    He said he owed it to all Australians to maintain affordable and reliable electricity, and keeping the Liddell station was one way of doing that.

    “There are obviously other options, but one option clearly that I as prime minister have to explore is keeping Liddell going,” he said.
    ***But Mr Vesey posted on Twitter that “keeping old coal plants open won’t deliver the reliable, affordable energy our customers need”.
    AGL wants to close all its coal-fired power station by 2050, starting with Liddell in the NSW Hunter Valley.

    ***It has committed to shutting down the station in 2022 when it reaches the end of its 50-year operating life.
    “AGL has provided this advance notice to avoid the volatility created by the sudden exit of other coal-fired power stations,” an AGL spokeswoman said.
    “AGL is actively assessing what capacity will be needed post-2022.”
    Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg said Mr Turnbull’s involvement was significant.

    “(It’s) a serious signalling of our intent that we will do everything we can to keep sufficient baseload power in the system,” Mr Frydenberg told reporters.
    Nationals senator Matt Canavan, who has stood aside as resources minister pending a High Court challenge to his parliamentary eligibility, said it was “great to see AGL has seen the light”.
    ***”They are at least open to staying in coal,” Senator Canavan told Sky News.
    “The sensible side of this debate is saying we should be using all of our resources as a country to deliver cheap reliable and more efficient power.”…
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/govt-in-talks-to-keep-coal-generator-open/news-story/e7b251b656dc284ff5bb9566cd01763b

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    pat

    read this whole exchange:

    Twitter: Tony Abbott
    5 Sept:
    TWEET Tony Abbott: Agree with Matt Canavan striving to make a point over interviewer interruption: good that AGL is no longer getting out of coal!…

    Thomas Parkes‏ @_thomasparkes · 4h4 hours ago
    Replying to @TonyAbbottMHR @Raf_Epstein
    @aglenergy have been campaigning that they’re get out of coal.

    AGL Energy‏Verified account @aglenergy · 3h3 hours ago
    Correct, Thomas! We continue to campaign as we are 100% committed to a transition towards renewables and the closure of Liddell in 2022…

    Andy Vesey‏Verified account
    @AndyVesey_AGL
    .@TonyAbbottMHR We’re getting out of coal. We committed to the closure of the Liddell power station in 2022, the end of its operating life…

    Matthew Canavan‏Verified account
    @matt
    Replying to @AndyVesey_AGL
    .@AndyVesey_AGL @TonyAbbottMHR what a joke! You say your getting out of coal in 2050!!
    https://twitter.com/TonyAbbottMHR/status/904951352446423040

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      Graeme No.3

      AGL “we are getting out of coal”
      “What’s that? Lots of money”
      “We have changed our minds”.

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    Dave

    This is significant

    Matt Canavan tells Sky that AGL aren’t getting out of coal!
    Tony Abbott tweets that he agrees!

    Then AGL tweets different (We will be out of Liddell in 2022)

    CEO of AGL then tweets – confirming closure of Liddell!

    Then Matt Canavan gets shirty?

    Where is our esteemed PM in all of this?
    I can feel a change of leadership very soon! The Turnbull Coalition is a JOKE!

    Government energy policy on TWITTER?

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    pat

    5 Sept: TheWest: Blackout risk in summer for SA, Victoria
    by Katina Curtis
    South Australians and Victorians face the risk of four-hour blackouts over summer unless governments follow through on plans for new battery storage and diesel generators.
    The Australian Energy Market Operator released its annual stocktake of electricity supplies on Tuesday, showing there’s a heightened risk of a shortfall over the next decade if nothing is done.
    The risk is highest in Victoria and South Australia, and beyond this summer in NSW and Victoria, after the Liddell power station closure planned for 2022.
    “The power system does not have the reserves it once had,” AEMO chief executive Audrey Zibelman said…

    However, the report says SA government plans – including construction of a new battery and diesel generation – plus AEMO measures, do address the risks in that state…

    The Greens want to work with Labor to set up a different mechanism for managing pollution and investment in the energy sector – an emissions intensity scheme – and is disappointed the opposition appears to prefer working with the government.
    https://thewest.com.au/politics/report-points-to-potential-power-shortfall-ng-s-1768952

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    pat

    unattributed:

    5 Sept: Reuters: Australia faces heightened blackout risks next summer – electricity operator
    Australia faces more blackouts over the coming southern hemisphere summer following the closure of a major coal-fired power station and even as the world’s biggest battery is in place, the nation’s energy market operator warned on Tuesday.

    The report will be key to the federal government’s decision on how to set a clean energy target beyond 2020 to encourage investment in stable and affordable power supplies…

    Electricity supply is so tight that a lack of wind to fuel renewable generation or the loss of a thermal power plant occurring at the same time there are increases in demand during the peak air-conditioning months could lead to power cuts in the wind-dependent state of South Australia and neighbouring Victoria, the report said…

    There has been a net loss of 1,100 megawatts of capacity in the National Electricity Market, covering the eastern states — Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania — since last year to 47,016 MW, with the closure of Engie’s Hazelwood coal-fired plant partly offset by new wind power…

    ***It expects the risk of power outages to ease from 2018 to 2019 in South Australia and Victoria with the help of more rooftop solar panels and energy efficiency, and the addition of more large-scale wind and solar farms…
    https://www.reuters.com/article/australia-power/australia-faces-heightened-blackout-risks-next-summer-electricity-operator-idUSL4N1LM25V

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    pat

    behind paywall; from url there seems to be a sub-heading: Urges development of strategic reserves:

    5 Sept: Australian: Chief scientist backs extending life of coal plants, as regulator warns of power crunch
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/regulator-warns-of-power-crunch-urges-development-of-strategic-reserves/news-story/bdab5834d67bcb310e60f39b117d7de6

    behind paywall:

    5 Sept: AFR: Chief Scientist Alan Finkel backs coal power extension
    http://www.afr.com/business/energy/electricity/chief-scientist-alan-finkel-backs-coal-power-extension-20170904-gya9c3

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    pat

    not a single detail from the Newspoll!

    5 Sept: Sky News: Government warned of power price hike
    The Australian reports Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg has been handed the long-awaited AEMO report into the sector.
    The government has been told there could be a dangerous shortfall in what’s called baseload power as more coal-fire stations are closed down.
    The warning comes as a Newspoll reveals fewer voters are willing to pay higher energy bills to help fight global warming.

    behind paywall, so still no detail:

    Bill shock looms amid baseload power crisis
    The Australian-22 hours ago
    Australians are at risk from a dangerous shortfall in baseload power that could … more voters turn away from paying higher prices for renewable energy. … A special Newspoll, conducted exclusively for The Australian, reveals…

    9 News provides a little detail, though whether 25% would be willing to pay more than their already exorbitant and ever-increasing electricity bills is doubtful:

    5 Sept: 9News: Are you willing to pay more for renewable energy?
    by Charles Croucher
    According to Newspoll this is the question that divides Australians more than same-sex marriage or who should run the country.
    Forty-nine percent of Australians say they’re not willing to fork out for renewables. That’s one in two people…

    The Newspoll cited in The Australian this morning reveals that 25 percent of Australians are willing to pay up to $100 more each year for renewable energy, but only three percent are happy to pay $500…

    Renewable energy advocates are confident the change will lead to improvements in cost and be more efficient.
    http://www.9news.com.au/national/2017/09/05/07/35/would-you-pay-more-for-renewable-energy

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    pat

    from The Conversation, 5 Sept: Making sense of the polls.
    In Newspoll, 45% thought Labor’s 50% renewable energy target would increase electricity prices, 22% decrease and 24% thought there would be no effect, so this is 46-45 for no effect or a decrease. 49% are not willing to pay anything for renewable energy (up 4 since February), 25% will pay $100 a year (down 1) and 13% $300 or more (down 4)…

    Essential poll:
    49% blamed private power companies most for rising energy prices, 22% blamed the Turnbull government, 9% environmentalists and 5% renewable energy companies…

    read all:

    5 Sept: RenewEconomy: Giles Parkinson: AEMO says fossil fuel failures, renewable investment delays biggest threat to grid
    The Australian Energy Market Operator has cited climate change, and the potential for large fossil fuel generators to fail in the summer heat-wave as the biggest threat to Australia’s electricity supplies in the coming years.

    It also makes clear that there are plenty of alternatives to new baseload coal generators, and underlines that any delays to new wind and solar plants could also jeopardise security of supply, particularly in Victoria and South Australia…
    In NSW the risk increases in 2022 once Liddell closes, but AEMO says the risks can be mitigated in both states if “additional renewable generation was to be developed to deliver a national renewable generation outcome.”

    That message, however, appears to have fallen on deaf ears. At the same time as AEMO published its annual Electricity Statement of Opportunities on its website, prime minister Malcolm Turnbull rose in parliament to announce that the Coalition was asking AGL Energy to keep Liddell open an extra five years until 2027.
    This is despite the fact that AEMO says there is no risk to security standards from the closure of Liddell, and any risk would be further reduced if more renewable energy was constructed…

    Add: We received this statement from AGL in response to Turnbull’s request on Liddell:
    “AGL has committed to the closure of the Liddell power station in 2022, which is the end of its operating life. AGL has provided this advance notice to avoid the volatility created by the sudden exit of other coal-fired power stations. AGL is actively assessing what capacity will be needed post 2022 and we, along with other market participants, will consider AEMO’s report in light of these plans.

    (This is a breaking news story and we will publish further updates and extra reports as we digest the report further. You will find these on our website, or in Wednesday’s newsletter).
    http://reneweconomy.com.au/aemo-says-fossil-fuel-failures-renewable-investment-delays-biggest-threat-to-grid-82601/

    5 Sept: RenewEconomy: Giles Parkinson: Garnaut slams AEMC move to delay 5-minute settlement rule
    The Australian Energy Market Commission has finally agreed to recommend a new rule that would change the settlement period for the electricity spot price from 30 minutes to five minutes – a development that could underpin massive investment in battery storage in Australia.

    But its decision to put off the implementation until July, 2021, at the earliest has been slammed by leading experts, who say the decision will simply reinforce the position of the fossil fuel generators currently fleecing wholesale energy markets, and delay the entry of new technologies,

    Professor Ross Garnaut, the eminent economist who is also chairman of Zen Energy, said the decision would cause an unnecessary delay in the introduction of modern technologies to stabilise the electricity market.
    “The new technologies are required urgently in response to increasing rates of failure of conventional power systems, increased intensity of extreme weather events and increasing roles for intermittent generation,” he said in an emailed statement to RenewEconomy.
    “Confirmation of the delay in introduction of 5 minute pricing would be a setback for energy security and low energy costs, and for timely transition to a low carbon economy.”

    The Australia Institute was even more damming(sic)…READ ON FOR BEN OQUIST
    http://reneweconomy.com.au/garnaut-slams-aemc-move-to-delay-5-minute-settlement-rule-89819/

    http://reneweconomy.com.au/aemo-says-fossil-fuel-failures-renewable-investment-delays-biggest-threat-to-grid-82601/

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    pat

    worth a read:

    5 Sept: Lifezette: Abandoning Coal Could Mean Blackouts for U.S. Power Grid
    Over-reliance on natural gas as replacement for diverse energy market may endanger supply
    by Terry Jarrett
    (Terry Jarrett is an energy attorney and consultant who has served on both the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners and the Missouri Public Service Commission.)
    But is the quest to end coal power a sound idea? And can natural gas really supplant coal in providing nationwide base load power generation?…

    First, in order to make natural gas the ubiquitous power producer that some envision, the United States would need to build a massive new set of pipeline and delivery systems to accommodate additional power plants. The costs of such investment alone are daunting. But unlike coal supplies delivered by rail, natural gas also remains a high-pressure commodity. The vulnerability of new pipeline systems to extreme weather events, or to malicious attack, means that any service disruptions could interrupt power delivery across wide swaths of the nation.

    Natural gas also remains captive to an intricate arrangement of market sales. Grid operators continually hedge their bets in the gas market, splitting their purchases between firm and “interruptible” gas supplies. This can lead to question marks as to whether they have sufficient gas supplies coming in each day to keep power plants running. Typically, natural gas serves as a fill-in producer, supplying extra electricity as needed during peak demand. But such spotty availability would need to be fundamentally revised before the nation could shift away from coal and nuclear power production…

    Any rush to completely eliminate coal power and embrace natural gas as the bridge toward a renewable energy future, though, could bump into formidable obstacles. It’s admirable to aim for a cleaner energy sector, but real-world problems need to be patiently sorted out, if America is to make such a leap.
    http://www.lifezette.com/polizette/abandoning-coal-could-mean-blackouts-for-u-s-power-grid/

    meawhile, celebrity-obsessed CAGW-infested AFR writes a short novel about this little bit of nonsense!

    4 Sept: AFR: Exclusive: Mike Cannon-Brookes leads $4m round in home energy fintech startup Brighte
    by Paul Smith & Joyce Moullakis
    Atlassian co-founder Mike Cannon-Brookes has made his latest move in his ongoing effort to move the dial on Australia’s energy crisis, becoming the lead backer in a capital raising for home energy funding platform Brighte.
    The company, which was founded by former Macquarie Group senior manager Katherine McConnell in 2015, provides on-the-spot finance online for home energy improvements such as solar panels and home batteries.
    It promises to dramatically increase the number of homes installing renewable, clean energy equipment by taking away the often hefty upfront cost and making it easier and more affordable.

    Brighte raised an initial seed round of $3.5 million from high net worth investors and family trusts, and Ms McConnell began talking about further investment with Mr Cannon-Brookes, through his investment company Grok Ventures last September.
    The increasingly high profile tech billionaire said there was massive potential for growth in the residential energy market, and he believed Brighte was in the box seat to grow dramatically because of its long-term vision. He said his investments through Grok would increasingly reflect his belief in the importance of certain social issues, such as the growth in renewable energy.

    “The environmental impact is extremely important [in my decision making]. We have a huge number of issues with the planet today and smart businesses are attacking them and building great businesses to do it. Anything at the nexus is interesting to me,” Mr Cannon-Brookes told The Australian Financial Review.

    He provided the lion’s share of a $4 million second-round raising and has also invested in Brighte’s debt issuance, which includes tranches of securitised loans.
    While Brighte is looking to disrupt the banks’ business to an extent by providing finance, Ms McConnell said she was still looking to work with institutions as a source of funding loans.
    But the company is yet to get bank backing…ETC
    http://www.afr.com/technology/mike-cannonbrookes-leads-4m-round-in-home-energy-fintech-startup-brighte-20170901-gy955h

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    pat

    especially hilarious, if you know who this guy is:

    4 Sept: Daily Beast: Gary Numan: How Trump’s ‘Stupidity’ on Climate Change Became My Twisted Inspiration
    English musician Gary Numan explains the dark inspiration behind his new album Savage (Songs from a Broken World), out September 15

    In the forming of these ideas I had watched a number of documentaries that moved and frightened me in equal measure, the Al Gore film An Inconvenient Truth hitting home particularly hard. But, with the signing of the Paris Climate Accord, it seemed the world had miraculously come together in an extraordinary display of good sense and sound judgement, and so we seemed to be stepping back from the brink, just in the nick of time. It seemed more like a Hollywood nail biting, near catastrophe ending than real life, and yet real it was, and it was beautiful. It felt as if the world had finally grown up and was being run by adults.

    But then, just as I was starting the process of converting into songs my half-baked ideas lurking within the chaos of my scattered notes, Donald Trump lumbered over the horizon. At first I took little notice. I’m still a British citizen so I couldn’t vote anyway, and he seemed such a vulgar, spiteful, braggart of a man it was hard to imagine that the American people would allow him to progress one foot forward, let along become the Republican candidate. But, as his campaign gathered momentum and, to my great disappointment, vast numbers of supporters flocked to his rallies, I began to listen far more closely to what he was saying. I listened with increasing horror to his opinions on many things, but especially to his thoughts on climate change and the enormous, and very real, danger I believe with all my heart that we face.

    I couldn’t make out whether he really believed what he was saying, or whether he saw his outrageously divisive and ill-informed rhetoric hitting home with enough people for it to become a strategy, a path to power. Either way, it coincidentally had a real world relevance to what I was writing. What had started out as an almost silly, fantasy look into the future, suddenly started to become a vague possibility. Unlikely perhaps, but definitely possible. As he went from candidate, to president-elect, to President Trump, I began to realize, with an ever-growing sense of dread, that we were all living in a monumental moment in the history of the world. It could almost be exciting if it wasn’t so awful.

    Within the context of my book storyline, and so the Savage album alongside it, the rise of Trump became the single most important thing that allowed the story, and the songs, to become science possibility rather than science fantasy…ETC
    http://www.thedailybeast.com/gary-numan-how-trumps-stupidity-on-climate-change-became-my-twisted-inspiration

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    Don Gaddes

    Rankama and Sahama,(Chicago Press 1950) ‘….When CO2 reaches partial pressure in the atmosphere, it is taken up by the oceans – especially nearer the Poles…’
    Question to Flannery, Steffen and Co;
    How does this allow for exponential global warming caused by CO2????

    There has been a 30 percent increase in global volcanism since 1982,(especially since 2010,) – this means COLDER temperatures due to increased Albedo effects.

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    TdeF

    Sure surveys are never wrong. Are they? Like the Yarra council survey of who wanted to dump Australia day, ending up with 84 for and a whole suburb against. Or 97% of scientists believe when 99% of the carefully chosen 10,000 respondents were just removed from the survey.

    So if Australians support same sex marriage, why is Getup funding 500,000 phone calls? Why are they fighting the legality of the plebiscite? Why are they determined to use their numbers in the Senate to stop a plebiscite? Who is in the 18,000 CSIRO respondents over five years, the 5,000 members of the CSIRO or just the 350 full time Climate Scientists and their families and dependents?
    A poll cannot be wrong.

    Besides, consider the irony that the CSIRO is telling us that everyone believes them? Of course they do. Over the same period we have paid $6Billion for CSIRO scientific advice and another $10Billion to the ABC/SBS media to tell us the truth and $3Billion to the BOM to report faithfully. They would not push an imported political agenda, would they?

    After all Hilary Clinton was going to win in a landslide. 98.3% of Washington voted of Hilary. 95% of journalists donated to her campaign. She could not lose. Teresa May threw away a very comfortable majority because she also was told she would also win in a landslide. Now we are told people actually trust the CSIRO to tell the truth? Is that because they paid massively for impartial and accurate advice?

    Then if it turns out that the CSIRO/BOM/ABC/SBS and friends actually massively deceived the Australian public and brought us the world’s most expensive electricity, most unreliable electricity and destroyed thousands of jobs and businesses and lives because they had a secret political socialist agenda, people might get a big angry. So of course 18,000 people trust the CSIRO.

    The question still stands, have we been deceived? Have we destroyed our quality of life because of the political aspirations of a few public servants who make it all up to please their friends? Why is Premier Weatherill building his own power system exclusively for the use of public servants and himself?

    The question will soon be answered when Victoria suffers the same terrible fate as South Australia. No power, no hospitals, no airport, no factories, no computers, no trams or trains, no traffic lights, no transport and a lot of very angry people. A whole socieity in utter crisis, now 5 million people, not one.

    We need Hazelwood turned on today. Just like Pelican Point where clearly a secret Weatherill deal has been done and it has run flat out since. We the people of Victoria have had enough. Not only of deceit but of self serving politicians, snouts in the Green trough.

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