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Scientists surprised that reef that survived the hotter holocene is already recovering from 2016 bleaching

Coral, eggs, recovery. Photo AIMS, Neal Cantin.

Coral which has produced eggs near Fitzroy Island. Photo AIMS, Neal Cantin.

The ABC reports today that the Great Barrier Reef is recovering “surprisingly” fast.

Optimism is rising among scientists that parts of the Great Barrier Reef that were severely bleached over the past two years are making a recovery.

Scientists from the Australian Institute of Marine Science this month surveyed 14 coral reefs between Cairns and Townsville to see how they fared after being bleached.

The institute’s Neil Cantin said they were surprised to find the coral had already started to reproduce.

Who would have thought that after 5,000 years of climate change, sea level change, temperature change and super-storms every 200 years — that the Great Barrier Reef would have something left up its sleeve?

Much of the ABC reporting on the Great Barrier Reef damage uses vague terms. If I was feeling cruel, I might call them “weasel words”:

Nearly two thirds of the Great Barrier Reef was affected by bleaching in 2016 and 2017, killing up to 50 per cent of coral in those parts.

So which parts are “those parts”? Did 50% of the corals die in two-thirds of the reef? Or has two thirds of the reef been affected by a small amount of bleaching while a much smaller number of reefs were hit by the apocalyptic 50% death-rate? There must be a better way to describe the damage. As it is, it is a number mush. (If only the ABC had a dedicated science unit they would be able to make sense of difficult concepts like this.) ;-)

“What it means is the corals along the entire Great Barrier Reef, are survivors that are going to reproduce earlier than expected which could help drive quicker recovery if we don’t see another heat stress this summer,” he said.

“This is a positive news story for a change for the Great Barrier Reef. We’re seeing eggs and we hope those eggs will lead to somewhat of a successful spawning season this summer.”

When climate-sameness would be remarkable…

The Barrier Reef survived the Holocene peak for hundreds of years, so we might assume that the reef has ways to deal with hotter conditions and changing temperatures. Sea levels in Queensland were 1 – 2 meters higher 5,000 years ago. (Lewis 2012) Super cyclones have been hitting the coast of Queensland for the last 5,000 years and there is no sign that storms are getting worse. (see Nott 2001 and Hayne 2001.)

Corals have survived warmer periods and worse storms

Globally it was hotter 5,000 years ago, and sea levels were a lot higher in Queensland:

Sea Levels, Queensland, Holocene. Lewis et al 2012.

Sea Levels have been falling for 4,000 years in Queensland during the Holocene. Lewis et al 2012.

From a post in 2012 on 5000 year trends in storms in Australia:

Nott and Hayne studied a 5000 year history of super-cyclones along a 1500 km stretch of North East Australia and concluded that the big nasty ones hit roughly every 200-300 years in all parts of the coastline from 13° – 24°S.

Storm damage, GBR, Great Barrier Reef, paleohistory, graph.

Fig 6: Progradation plot: normalized distances of each dated Storm Deposit from the oldest ridge crest versus the age difference between each storm deposit and the oldest ridge.

 

Hayne and Chappell (2001) looked at deposits left from storm surges on Curacoa Island (one of the Palm Islands of far north Queensland). They found that large cyclones have been hitting the coast at a statistically constant rate for 5000 years. This includes the earliest  times when the sea surface temperature appear to have been about 1°C warmer (Gagan et al 1998). At Palm Island, sea levels were apparently 70cm higher back in that warm Holocene era (Chappell et al 1983). Somehow the Great Barrier Reef survived.

h/t Dave B. Pat.

Australia’s Great Barrier Reef,
At times may get bleached, but its brief,
And for eons survived,
More than bleaching and thrived,
Which must cause alarmists some grief.

–Ruairi

REFERENCES

Gagan, M.K., Ayliffe, L., Hopley, D., Cali, J., Mortimer, G., Chappell, J., McCulloch, M., Head, M.J., (1998) Temperature and surface water balance of the mid-Holocene tropical western Pacific. Science 279, 1014–1018

Lewis, S.E., et al., Post-glacial sea-level changes around the Australian margin: a review, Quaternary Science Reviews (2012), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2012.09.006 [abstract] (paywalled).

Jonathan Nott1 & Matthew Hayne2 (2001) High frequency of ‘super-cyclones’ along the Great Barrier Reef over the past 5,000 years, Nature 413, 508-512 | doi:10.1038/35097055

Hayne, M. and Chappell, J.  (2001)  Cyclone frequency during the last 5000 years at Curacoa Island, north Queensland, Australia.  Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 168: 207-219. [Abstract] [Discussion Hayne and Chappell (2001) ]

 

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143 comments to Scientists surprised that reef that survived the hotter holocene is already recovering from 2016 bleaching

  • #
    Glen Michel

    After spending three weeks fishing and diving around Bowen and further out on the reef I am not surprised. Coral spawning, regeneration, death and all sort of things in between. Problem is all these starry-eyed Ph.D students running around knowing it all. I’ve given up on any serious science ever coming out of our Tertiary institutions. Better still, give me ALL the grant monies and I’ll set the record straight.

    432

    • #
      ivan

      It could be said that those that will not learn from history are destined to relive it over and over again, just as those that don’t learn science repeat the same slogans over and over as infinutum.

      150

      • #
        Greg Cavanagh

        I’m researching history of Italy from 1100 to 1300, and I read accounts within those history books that could be news articles today. It is the same thing over and over. Here’s an example of the Liberal/Conservative divide that we have today:

        The German emperors came unexpectedly on the scene,
        and their power and the splendor of the imperial mon-
        archy engaged the attention of many, and revived in them
        the memory of the ancient Latin empire. So were men
        divided, who all of one accord looked upon the Roman
        Papacy as a nucleus of a civil reorganization. Some
        turned hopefully to Home, others to Germany. The former
        less refined in mind, but more generous of heart, being
        jealous of liberty consecrated it by entrusting it to the
        Vicar of Christ ; the latter more active minded in order to
        profit by ancient memories, being anxious for greatness,
        sold their liberty. Strange names, bloody ones of foreign
        factions, were applied to the Papal and imperial parti-
        sans. Guelphs the one, and Ghibellines the other, were
        the names by which they were known.

        In every action there is a principal which individualises
        it, and it is always either really or apparently good. A
        paternal and defensive dominion the Guelphs sought from
        the Papacy, the Ghibellines a splendid and a powerful one
        from the Empire. But if the former did not violate jus-
        tice, the latter scorned it by inviting a most powerful
        foreigner into their weak country.

        80

        • #
          Glen Michel

          Rienzi!

          30

        • #
          Rereke Whakaaro

          I trust that you understand that prose. For I have to confess, it made little sense to me.

          30

          • #
            Glen Michel

            Wagner my friend. Liberation from the Hohenstaufen. Good opera.

            20

          • #
            Greg Cavanagh

            Rereke: It’s saying that two factions formed in Italy at this time.

            Those who loved the authority and austerity of Kings. They were drawn to the splendour and power that an Empire inspires. These people invited into Italy the German kings and sought to be part of the King’s court. This faction called themselves Ghibellines.

            And those who were “less refined in mind” and were “more generous of heart” supported the Roman, they “being jealous of liberty consecrated it by entrusting it to the Vicar of Christ” (Vicar of Christ is the Pope, the moral authority over men’s hearts).

            I’ll restate the last paragraph to modern English.

            To every action there is a consequence. Each faction believed that they were either really or apparently good. The Guelphs sought from the Papacy the defence of Italy, the Ghibellines sought splendour and power from the Empire. But if the former did not violate justice, the latter scorned it by inviting a most powerful foreigner into their weak country.

            20

            • #
              sophocles

              Or, in blunt terms: rather than government of the people, by the people, for the people, some people swallowed the propaganda/hogwash of the glorification of an individual (emperor/king) at their expense.

              20

              • #
                Greg Cavanagh

                Close, I think.

                Many of the cities in Italy were communes who governed themselves. The Pope, generally speaking, did the internation diplomacy keeping Italy secure.

                Some however, were in awe of the splendour of Empire. The old Roman Empire had collapsed, but a quick way to regain it again was to invite the German Kings in to the country.

                30

      • #
        Yonniestone

        Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.

        GEORGE SANTAYANA, The Life of Reason.

        and also fittingly’

        We must welcome the future, remembering that soon it will be the past; and we must respect the past, remembering that it was once all that was humanly possible.

        GEORGE SANTAYANA, Atoms of Thought.

        130

    • #
      Hasbeen

      I am surprised & disappointed at that Glen Michel.

      In the early mid 80s I was running the largest reef trip operation in the Whitsundays. I had dealings with AIMS, & the marine park authority. I supported a number of James Cook Ph.D students with transport & reef accommodation during that time.

      I found the Ph.D. students the most open & willing to look at the facts, & were actually researching the real reef, rather than mucking around in tanks back in Townsville. Perhaps they didn’t have homes they wished to go to each night.

      Perhaps the latest bunch of professors are doing a better job of indoctrination than those of the 80s, or perhaps the lack of career prospects for students who don’t toe the dictated line is better advised.

      180

  • #
    Ruairi

    Australia’s Great Barrier Reef,
    At times may get bleached, but its brief,
    And for eons survived,
    More than bleaching and thrived,
    Which must cause alarmists some grief.

    400

  • #
    Tom R Hammer

    This news comes as such a surprise to so many people…not!
    We’ve come to expect this initial type of “research”, the accompanying fearmongering press releases and the deafening silence later when the “research” is wrong. The same names in researchers and institutions keep coming up.

    261

    • #
      What Class?

      Only to those scientists that knew better. They were paid to prove Gaia is dying.

      112

    • #
      john karajas

      Yes indeed TH. In the meantime I’m still waiting for the howls of derision in response to:
      1. Tim Flannery’s prediction that the dams in Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria would never fill up again (apparently the soils were baked beyond soaking ever again)
      2. Tim Flannery’s prediction that Perth would be the first ghost city of the 21st century (in the meantime we have enjoyed three months of good rain over here in Perth).
      3. Jim Hansen’s prediction that Manhattan would be drowned by rising sea water by 2005.
      4. Children in Great Britain would never again know what snow looked like.

      And so on and on.

      I’m guessing that Barack Obama’s grandchildren will indeed be able to enjoy the GBR when the time is due.

      40

  • #
    TdeF

    So how’s the Crown of Thorns Starfish which was going to wipe out the reef, about thirty years ago? What’s next, Godzilla?

    In passing, what is the connection between occasionally slightly warmer waters in some areas and Climate Change? How can anyone blame CO2 for coral bleaching, or is a scientific or even logical connection no longer necessary for Chicken Little grant seeking scientists?

    331

    • #
      el gordo

      Coral bleaching on the GBR usually only happens during El Nino years, which causes a momentary drop of sea levell in the western Pacific.

      150

      • #
        AZ1971

        which causes a momentary drop of sea levell in the western Pacific

        And temporary loss of critical thinking skills and restraint on climate hysteria. (You forgot to add in those inevitabilities.)

        202

        • #
          el gordo

          ‘You forgot to add in those inevitabilities.’

          Thanks for reminding me AZ, but I’ve taken a vow not to poke brain dead scientists in the eye with a burnt stick, just yet.

          102

      • #
        Wayne Job

        Without all the bleaching and dead coral there would be no white beaches, they are not sand.

        90

    • #
      sophocles

      Corals have been around for over 400MYs. In that time, they have exerienced many hardships, from heat to freeze in much greater intensity than anything thrown at them over the last 2 centuries. Balmy times, in comparison.

      They have survival strategies. The only thing they don’t have strategies to survive is Oxybenzone. It’s one of the active ingredients of modern sunscreens. So all those Ph.Ds researching the corals `on the spot’ may be helping kill them.

      Death by research.

      50

    • #
      clive hoskin

      if you’ve ever been to PNG,you would know that the water there is usually 3 or 4 degrees warmer than Qld.So why don’t these MORONS jump up and down about the Reefs there?Perhaps because the NATIVES there,don’t believe this BS?

      10

  • #
    pat

    setting aside how valid this is or isn’t, it’s not something theirABC gets worked up over the way they do Gt Barrier Reef pseudo science:

    26 Sept: UK Telegraph: Sarah Knapton: Noise from building wind farms could harm fish, study shows
    The noise caused by building wind farms could be killing fish by making them more vulnerable to predators, a study suggests.
    Recordings of pile-driving, used in the construction of marine infrastructure such as wind farms and piers, disrupted the abilities of individual sea bass to co-ordinate their movements with one another, researchers from the University of Bristol found…

    The study involved using computer tracking software to analyse the movement of 450 individual seabass and shoals in the university’s aquarium…

    Windfarms have already been blamed for killing bats and seabirds while some studies have suggested the noise can prevent people from sleeping and even cause mental health problems…
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2017/09/26/noise-building-wind-farms-could-harm-fish-study-shows/

    200

  • #
    What Class?

    OT. Hot news. There’s a new putsch for Catastrophic Anthropogenic Methane to be the new culprit. We must stop eating meat because cows fart.

    140

    • #
      Bobl

      Nothing new about that, the vegetarian totalitarians have been out in force since almost the beginning trying to push us into their fatally unhealthy diet.

      200

    • #
      TdeF

      I’ve wondered about that. If people stop eating meat, why would the amount of methane generated go down? No more cows?

      Besides, herbivores by weight are the biggest lifeform on land. Carnivores by definition have to be less populous. Omnivores like humans are in the middle. I would have thought mankind has been great at reducing the number of herbivores, the vast herds of buffalo in the US, the migrations in Africa, elephant and rhino populations, the number of kangaroos in Australia and the aborigines exterminated the megafauna in only a few years.

      So now the caring Greens want mankind to finish the job and wipe out the herbivores completely because they can digest cellulose and produce meat and milk?

      What’s next? Get rid of the humans and save the planet? For whom?

      It’s like the South Australian logic. Blow up the coal power stations and save South Australia while the rest of humanity is building 600+ new coal power stations. Or is it even simpler logic than that. Wind and sun are free, so we will have free power? Is that what ‘renewables’ really means. Free?

      161

    • #
      Yonniestone

      Methane is claimed to be 30 times more “potent” than CO2 as a greenhouse gas but fail to mention its 200 times less prevalent than CO2 in the atmosphere.

      The idea of methane being bad is clever as most people don’t like farts but CO2 was demonised and that ideology embraced by people that believed in veganism, go figure.

      71

    • #
      Rereke Whakaaro

      Actually, cows only fart when fed grain in pens. They don’t fart, if they are allowed to graze on grass and herbs.

      Cows, grazing on grass and herbs however, can produce projectile excreta, which is a good thing when you consider the benefits of spreading the manure back onto the paddock.

      It is a bad thing, if you are trying to move a herd of cows, and end up walking behind them.

      60

      • #
        peter

        The hazards of walking behind cows? Is that a NZ preoccupation? Perhaps walking behind sheep is safer for New Zealanders? After all, they can be mounted before they can projectile excrete. An old joke I know, but still funny to Australians.

        20

        • #
          sophocles

          but still funny to Australians.

          That’s awfully tempting Peter, but I’ll leave it alone; I can’t improve on Sir Robert Muldoon’s comment in the 1970s … :-P

          20

  • #
    Michael

    Do you have any update on the reported persecution of Peter Ridd by James Cook University? Or has that all gone away.

    110

    • #
      TdeF

      Or the battle in the Canadian Supreme Court between Michael Mann and Tim Ball?

      Six months ago the world was waiting for a Contempt of Court ruling which would end the case in favor of Tim, making Michael Mann an implied criminal under Canadian law and simultaneously ending every case he has brought in the US. Millions of dollars over a funny play on words between Penn State and the State Penn.

      140

      • #
        Yonniestone

        If that Mann vs Ball trial goes in Balls favour its will be a big defeat for CAGW, whether it makes MSM news is another thing altogether.

        160

  • #
    Sonny

    I scanned this article for any mention of “climate change” or “global warming” NADA ZILCH.
    The ABC does not want to have anybody draw the connections between the litany of previous coral bleaching articles in which ocean “acidity”, warming or sea rise, attributed to “dirty coal” and “fossil fuels” were to blame.

    I am always amased that “Scientists” are surprised to learn that nature is more resilient than what they have been taught in their Marxist Lysenkoist indoctrination classes.

    These snowflakes literally expect nature to melt around them and comply with their post modern delusions.

    221

    • #
      TdeF

      You get attention seeking articles in the medical news too. Like tall people live longer, a observation but fundamentally of no earthly use and implying tallness of itself was the reason for longevity. When asked a surgeon friend commented that crazy announcements of pointless correlations was a sure sign that the group wanted funding. Thus the Ripley’s Believe it or Not announcements.

      So crazy correlations on Climate have been the news now for thirty years. Is there any field in science not subject to climate change in funding? Jay Weatherill has just announced that a big battery is half built. Thank’s for telling us. Now that’s a useless milestone but it gets front page, as intended. Elon Musk just happened to be in town on other business.

      110

      • #
        Bill Johnston

        No, no, no.. TdeF; its that tall people see further! Also that people sitting near the back of the bus always arrive later than those at the front.

        Cheers,

        Dr. Bill

        161

      • #
        Akatsukami

        Tall people may live longer, but they are less intelligent due to the cumulative brain damage from repeatedly smacking their foreheads on door lintels.

        10

    • #
      John in Oz

      Re scientists being amazed, wouldn’t this only apply if they have preconceived notions of the results of their studies.

      One should not be ‘amazed’ at anything if you don’t know what the result will be

      50

      • #
        Rereke Whakaaro

        I am not sure I agree with you.

        When I went to the “School For Not Very Bright Engineers”, we were told that the most profound statement in science was, “Now that’s odd …”

        10

  • #
    Aphan

    What Class?

    Nononono! We must eat MORE meat to stop those cow farts, not less. :)

    100

  • #
    Aphan

    It’s truly ironic how easy it is to “surprise” scientists these days. It must be mentally disturbing to realize you really DO NOT know everything after all.

    171

    • #
      Lionell Griffith

      Not only do they not know everything, they think their theories are correct and that reality is wrong for not behaving as they wish. Hence, they think it is quite OK to do bad experiments, apply appropriate statistical calculations until they get an answer that fits their theory. Then if that doesn’t work, they cherry pick, correct, and homogenization any raw data they have so their theory is supported. Rather than having what is as their standard of truth, what they wish it to be is supposed to create reality so it matches their wishes. For every such scientist there is an alternate reality unknowable and inaccessible by anyone else other than himself.

      This is worse than witchcraft. At least witches believed that all they needed was the correct incantation, potion, amulet, or ritual to get what they wanted or called on the appropriate demon to fulfill their wishes. They tended to understand that they did not actually create reality. They simply had a bad idea as to how to go about using it. However, both witches and post modern scientists tend to believed that human sacrifice was the way to seal the deal.

      180

    • #
      John Smith

      I, on rare occasions, ‘discover’ that I was wrong.
      I ignore it until the consensus forms …
      at the end of the 10, 20, or 30 year cycle …
      which I decide on every 10, 20, or 30 years.

      70

    • #
      Greg Cavanagh

      They count it as a discovery, therefore they have earned their wage this week.
      The rest of us throw our hands in the air and say Durrrrr!

      90

  • #
    Dennis

    Don’t forget that 5,000 years ago Fred Flintstone and Barney Rubble were racing around in rock cars.

    40

  • #
    KinkyKeith

    As el Gordo says above, coral bleaching occurs during el Nino periods i.e. the reefs lose water cover.

    Just what is the sea level change caused by the el Nino?

    I can vaguely remember the predictions that were made for sea level rise. Some said that 20 metres could be expected “soon” and graphic representations of the flooding of many U.S. cities was portrayed. To this day there has been no sign that this catastrophe Will occur.

    Sea levels have measured at just over 1 mm pa in some places, less in others.

    The thing that really amazes me is that sea levels are reported to fractions of a millimetre.

    Can anyone really claim to be that accurate.

    My intuition tells me that measurements reported to plus or minus 5 mm would be closer to a realistic level of accuracy.

    But then, I’m not a climate scientist.

    KK

    162

  • #
    Gary Hagland

    Okinawa, located at 26N latitude, had significant coral bleaching during the massive 1998 El Nino. Looking down at it from above, one of our favorite dive sites resembled am underwater snowscape initially prior to turning a dingy brown. However, within the year, much of the coral had recovered at least partially. Places that didn’t were either somewhat current deficient or visited by too many inexperienced divers that tended to crash into or crawl along the reef.

    100

  • #
    KinkyKeith

    Pat’s comment at 5 above once again raises the issue of ULF pulsing, sometimes incorrectly referred to as noise.

    This is one issue that needs to be followed up and you have to wonder why “the science” of infrasound is being swept under the carpet when so much damage is being done.

    The cause seems to be more important than people.

    KK

    100

  • #
    BoyfromTottenham

    I am planning to start an environmentally friendly business collecting all the ugly dead coral from the GBR, which is basically calcium chloride. Calcium chloride has many industrial uses, and current processes to make it from limestone involve lots of energy and toxic chemicals such as 30% hydrochloric acid. All I have to do is collect the dead coral and crush it up – hey presto a valuable product. I should be able to get funding from ARENA or the CEFC. The biggest risk I see is reef scientists suddenly deciding that “dead” coral isn’t actually “dead”. But I could cope with that, in fact I wouldn’t stop smiling for a month.

    160

    • #
      Yonniestone

      Finding uses for things that aren’t quite dead has been the mantra for politicians since the beginning….and later Hollywood…..

      60

    • #
      gnome

      Calcium chloride? I don’t think there’s a lot of coral in Tottenham for reference.

      30

    • #
      Rereke Whakaaro

      Zombie coral! (Cue dramatic music) It came back from the dead! (Repeat dramatic music).

      20

    • #
      john karajas

      G’day Tottenham, dead coral is basically calcium carbonate not calcium chloride. Give yourself an F-.

      Professor Karajas B.Sc in Geology

      10

    • #
      sophocles

      Umm, no, coral is not made of Calcium Chloride.

      According to Wikipedia (and my chemistry text agrees)

      Calcium chloride is an inorganic compound, a salt with the chemical formula CaCl2. It is a colorless crystalline solid at room temperature, highly soluble in water.

      Now, given it’s solubility in water, we wouldn’t have any coral reefs to be scared about at all if that’s what the corals built with.

      Corals, being sensible little things, use Calcium Carbonate which is made by the sea from an excess of CO2 and Calcium dissolved therein, to maintain its pH within the range of 8.1 – 8.8.

      All those beautiful white buildings in London—like The Houses of Parliament, St Paul’s Cathedral, etc—are built from it. They’re usually an ugly dark grey in the current atmosphere, but every time they’re cleaned … about once a century … they’re magnificent.

      20

  • #
    Rosco

    I find it amazing that organisms that are almost exclusively tropical cannot survive in what is essentially luke warm water – colder than our government allows us to have in our homes to protect us from scalding ourselves.

    This makes no sense to me at all and causes me to wonder if 35°C water temperature is really the cause of bleaching.

    Much more likely to be the Sun’s radiation at low tides.

    141

  • #
    King Geo

    There were significant carbonate build-ups (reefs) in the S.E. Asian region during the Middle/Early Miocene (~ 11.6Ma – 23.0Ma). You can see evidence of this geology if you visit Thailand, Vietnam etc. Planet Earth was a lot warmer during this period and eustatic SL was much higher. So the “AGW Alarmists” warning that the Great Barrier Reef is at “grave risk from AGW & rapid SL rise” is total nonsense. Coral bleaching is a short term phenomenon that occurs during “Super El Nino” events in the Pacific Ocean e.g. 1997/1998 & 2015/2016. So any Australian Govt Funding directed to our academic institutions to examine “grave risks to the Great Barrier Reef related to AGW” is a complete waste of resources. The main risk to reef build-ups is rapid SL fall e.g. as occurred during the Pleistocene Ice Age cycles e.g. eustatic SL was ~ 130m lower during most of the the last Ice Age (~11.7Ka – 114Ka). As the SL dropped following the preceding Eemian Interglacial (~114Ka – 125Ka), reef growth could only continue by back stepping ocean-wards. Also during “Glacial Cycles” with much lower eustatic SL, there is the heightened risk of fluvial input, ie rivers pouring silt/mud etc into the “carbonate regime” and this well and truly kills off the reef-build-up. There is evidence that this is the main reason why carbonate build-ups ceased to exist in the S.E. Asian region during the Late Miocene (post ~ 11.6Ma). Basically a series of significant eustatic SL falls during the Late Miocene triggered the termination of regional carbonate build-ups.

    100

  • #
    Robert Rosicka

    The real reason it’s stopped bleaching and started to recover is because they are now no longer mining coal on the reef and have spent billions on research , but I need another billion to further this study or the reef gets it .

    72

  • #
    kramer

    How is it that the holocene was hotter than today when CO2 levels back then were lower?

    Also, if we’ve prevented another ice age from occurring, aren’t the economic cost savings WAY WAY WAY bigger than a projected increase in storms?

    91

    • #
      el gordo

      CO2 doesn’t cause warming so in the early Holocene there were more carbon sinks in a warmer and wetter world.

      We cannot stop a mini ice age, it will overwhelm us, but geoengineering may save us from a major glaciation.

      20

      • #

        Major glaciations were caused by major snowfall. That was caused by higher, warmer oceans in polar regions. The water required to cause that has been sequestered on Antarcitca, Greenland and high mountain glaciers. it cannot happen again.

        10

    • #
      sophocles

      Solar activity was higher back then, during the Holocene Optimum, than it is today.

      10

  • #
    Lionell Griffith

    “Can anyone really claim to be that accurate.”

    Yes, anyone can claim to be that accurate. The problem is to prove it.

    I seriously doubt that proving it has been done nor that it is even possible to prove it. The primary problem is the stable reference point upon which to base your measures. Where is it, does it exist, has it been proven to be stable to a fraction of a millimeter?

    Further, there are simply too many variables from local to galactic that will impact the result. Everything is changing with respect to everything else on all time scales from milliseconds to eons and with widely varying magnitudes.

    It is unlikely that global sea level could be known to better than a few feet if that good. Even that is likely useful only on a local bases. Then only to know when it is good to hunt for clams or launch a boat.

    I am very sure we don’t know what it is doing well enough to dismantle technological civilization, repeal the industrial revolution, and return to pre stone age conditions to avoid having a beach house or two swept out to sea. Especially since it is so easy to escape a change in maximum tide of a few millimeters per decade. Yes, that might be inconvenient but compared to what the alarmist are asking for it is far less trivial than repainting the beach house.

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    el gordo

    Back in 2007 the ABC had a chat with alarmist Horegh-Guidberg.

    KATHRYN ROBERTS: ‘Professor Hoegh-Guldberg is the Director of the Centre for Marine Studies at the University of Queensland. He says researchers first noticed coral bleaching during the winter months in 1999 and then again during a cold snap in 2003.

    ‘But recent experiments on the coral have shown that it suffers the same damaging effects at low temperatures as it does at high temperatures.

    HOEGH-GULDBERG: ‘We are getting some very cold days as the climate’s warming, particularly in the south-east Queensland area, and there’s some evidence to suggest that this is due to changing weather patterns, where you’re getting the intrusion of some of the Antarctic weather up into New South Wales and Queensland, where it probably didn’t get that far up before.’

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    PeterS

    These days scientists are surprised more and more about everything. For example, they were totally surprised at what they saw when they recently had a closer look at Pluto. They had to throw away everything they thought they knew about Pluto and start again. The same goes with many other fields of science with recent discoveries. All this proves that scientists really know very little so it’s no wonder they get it wrong so many times and are surprised at the evidence once it is “in their face”, such as in this case about the Great Barrier Reef.

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      TdeF

      There’s coral on Pluto?

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      Forrest Gardener

      I am not sure that scientists is the word you are looking for. People who use the scientific method are increasingly rare but the number who dress up activism as science are all too numerous.

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        Lionell Griffith

        Cargo Cult Sientism: The superficial appearance and words of science but without the necessary fundamental processes and mechanisms. It has less relationship to actual science than does astrology to astronomy. At least astrology was a precursor to astronomy. Cargo Cult Sientism is the negation of science.

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          David Maddison

          Very good point Lionell. When we look what’s gone wrong and what’s going wrong we need to recognise that the unthinkable has happened.

          There has been a fundamental corruption of science.

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        Allen Ford

        the number who dress up activism as science are all too numerous.

        But they also dress up in white lab coats, so they must be scientists!

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    pat

    another “surprise” of late from CAGW insiders:

    27 Sept: Accuweather: Weakening of winter polar vortex linked to extremes in cold in parts of the Northern Hemisphere
    By Brett Anderson
    A new study from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research has found that there has been a shift toward more-persistent weak states of the polar vortex over the past four decades…

    “Our latest findings not only confirm the link between a weak polar vortex and severe winter weather, but also calculated how much of the observed cooling in regions like Russia and Scandinavia is linked to the weakening vortex. It turns out to be most,” says co-author Judah Cohen from Atmospheric and Environmental Research/Massachusetts Institute of Technology (US).

    “Several types of weather extremes are on the rise with climate change, and our study adds evidence that this can also include cold spells, which is an ***UNPLEASANT SURPRISE for these regions.” The effect is stronger over Asia and Europe than over the United States.
    https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/climatechange/weakening-of-winter-polar-vortex-linked-to-extremes-in-cold-in-parts-of-the-northern-hemisphere/70002842

    WaPo has been placing some articles behind a paywall recently, incl a few CAGW pieces I’ve tried to access:

    Twitter: Washington Post: One of the most bizarre ideas about climate change just got more support
    (LINK) WaPo: One of the most bizarre ideas about climate change just found more evidence
    The idea of the warming Arctic creating weird winters just won’t go away
    reply: Tom Frantz: Quit tweeting stories we can’t read without a subscription.#unfollow
    reply Ken Smith: Stop with the pay wall. Either tweet free articles or delete your account.
    https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/statuses/911247937912688641

    someone at Reddit has pasted the full article – read all, as Mooney trots out sceptics and ends with the prospect of “more SURPRISES”. NOTE: ***”COUNTERUITIVE” IS PRETTY MUCH A SYNONYM FOR “SURPRISE” IN CAGW CIRCLES OF LATE:

    Reddit:
    22 Sept: WaPo: One of the most bizarre ideas about climate change just found more evidence in its favor
    By Chris Mooney
    More and more, we are learning that climate change can lead to some pretty strange and ***counterintuitive effects, especially when it comes to the wintertime…

    More controversial still is an idea called “Warm Arctic, Cold Continents.” This is the notion that as the Arctic warms up faster than the middle latitudes, it may sometimes cause a displacement of the region’s still quite frigid air to places that aren’t so used to it. In other words, even as the planet warms, masses of cold air could also become more mobile and deliver quite a shock at times when outbreaks occur in more southerly latitudes…

    In both November and December of 2016, for instance, temperatures at the North Pole surged tens of degrees above normal while at the same time a huge mass of abnormally cold air descended over Siberia. Capital Weather Gang reported that in November, during one of the excursions, Siberian temperatures were “up to 60 degrees below normal.”…

    Now, a new study in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society makes the case that in January and February — later in the winter than those events — another, perhaps related change is occurring. This one involves the notorious “stratospheric polar vortex”…

    The “polar vortex” is both a popularly known and deeply confused concept — the problem is that there are two of them, which sometimes interact. The stratospheric polar vortex is far higher in the atmosphere and forms a much tighter loop. Then there is a lower “tropospheric” version that more directly affects the weather we all experience…

    This whole line of inquiry remains relatively novel in climate research, however, and the chains of causation are nothing if not complicated.

    Climate scientist Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, for one, remains cautious about the work. In a comment on the new study for The Post, Trenberth suggested that the picture is more complex and that Arctic changes aren’t the only thing going on — citing major trends in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans as well.

    The new study presents “a number of quantities that are related to one another, but one can not say they are causal, as claimed,” Trenberth commented by email. “On the contrary, there is good evidence of other influences that play a major causal role. Thus the Arctic amplification goes along with and is consistent with profound changes in the stratospheric polar vortex in January and February, even as profound influences come into the region from lower latitudes.”

    He’s not the only skeptic. A study published last year in the journal Geophysical Research Letters regarding the “Warm Arctic, Cold Continents” hypothesis rejected the idea that continental cooling was linked to the loss of Arctic sea ice.

    “Whereas the directionality toward warming Arctic surface temperatures is well understood to be linked strongly with accelerating sea ice loss, there is neither an established theory nor strong experimental evidence that midlatitude temperature trends having opposite directionality results as a dynamical response,” found the authors, a team of researchers with the University of Colorado in Boulder and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

    As all of this suggests, even as some scientists suggest that the dramatic changes to the Arctic are reverberating in the latitudes where many of us live, others continue to point out that our weather also has well established and more traditional drivers, like the Pacific Ocean. And those are also changing. It’s a complicated picture with a lot of moving pieces — but the fastest-moving one, the Arctic, seems more than capable of delivering some surprises.
    https://www.reddit.com/r/environment/comments/71s2ni/one_of_the_most_bizarre_ideas_about_climate/

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    David Maddison

    It’s surprising that these anti-science activists that falsely call themselves “scientists” are not aware that bleaching is part of the normal cycle of the life of coral.

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    pat

    comment in moderation re:

    another “surprise” of late from CAGW insiders:
    27 Sept: Accuweather: Weakening of winter polar vortex linked to extremes in cold in parts of the Northern Hemisphere

    FOLLOWING IS A LENGTHY MUST-READ, WITH RELEVANCE FOR AUSTRALIA, INTERSPERSED WITH PLENTY OF DECEPTIVE CAGW LINES FROM REUTERS:

    29 Sept: Reuters: John Kemp: COLUMN-Perry puts thumb on the scale to save U.S. coal and nuclear
    (John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
    The U.S. Department of Energy has thrown a lifeline to the struggling U.S. coal and nuclear industries by proposing a new rule that would explicitly compensate them for contributing to electric grid reliability and resiliency.
    Invoking his powers under the Department of Energy Organization Act, Energy Secretary Rick Perry has directed the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to consider a new grid resiliency rule.

    The proposed rule would require independent system operators (ISOs) and regional transmission organisation (RTOs) regulated by FERC to implement new electricity market rules compensating eligible power producers for their contributions to reliability and resiliency.
    “Specifically, the (proposed) rule allows for the recovery of costs of fuel-secure generation units that make our grid reliable and resilient,” Perry wrote in a letter to FERC dated Sept. 28.
    “Such resources provide reliable capacity, resilient generation, frequency and voltage support, (and) on-site fuel inventory,” he explained. “The rule allows the full recovery costs of certain eligible units.”
    “Eligible units must … be able to provide essential energy and ancillary reliability services and have a 90-day fuel supply on-site in the event of supply disruptions caused by emergencies, extreme weather, or natural or man-made disasters.”

    The proposed rule would require ISOs and RTOs to establish “just and reasonable” tariffs for eligible units to recover their full costs and earn a fair rate of return.
    “There is a growing recognition that … markets do not necessarily pay generators for all the attributes that they provide to the grid, including resiliency.”

    The stipulation that “eligible units” must have 90 days of fuel stored on site makes clear that the rule is clearly intended to benefit coal-fired and nuclear generating units.
    Solar and wind farms do not store fuel and gas-fired power plants do not stockpile anything like 90 days of gas on site, relying instead on pipeline deliveries.
    “Supply chain disruptions can impact many generators during a widespread fuel shortage event,” according to a recent study written by Department of Energy staff.

    “Nuclear and coal plants have advantages associated with onsite fuel storage”, the study noted (“Staff Report to the Secretary on Electricity Markets and Reliability”, DOE, Aug 2017)…
    ***Coal and nuclear traditionally provided “baseload” power on the grid but it is not clear whether this concept remains relevant in a grid with growing wind, solar and gas generation…

    In February 2011, extreme cold led to rolling blackouts and gas supply curtailments in the U.S. Southwest with up to 4.4 million electricity customers at some point over three days.
    During the Polar Vortex in January 2014, when extreme cold weather swept down through the eastern United States, 35 GW of capacity failed to respond to an urgent order from grid controllers for flat-out generation.

    In some cases, gas-fired generators were unable to respond because they could not secure enough fuel at a time when gas demand was also being stretched by extremely low temperatures…

    POLITICAL PAYBACK
    Perry’s instruction to FERC has waded into the centre of this debate about reliability and resiliency with a plan clearly designed to help its supporters in the coal and nuclear industries…

    ***There is no doubt the increasing integration of the gas and electricity systems poses a threat to reliability and resiliency…
    https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-electricity-kemp/column-perry-puts-thumb-on-the-scale-to-save-u-s-coal-and-nuclear-kemp-idUSL8N1MA5YD

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      Robert Rosicka

      Good read Pat , I’ve always said I don’t care where my electricity comes from as long as it’s cheap and reliable .
      Any company that farms subsidys to gain access to the electricity market should be made accountable for the times they can’t contribute electricity except in the case of breakdowns or maintenance but within reason .
      They all should bid 76 hours in advance what they can and will deliver no exceptions and any breach should result in fines that severely punish unreliable systems no matter what source of generating it comes from .

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    Mark M

    Turns out that emitting trace CO2 is a truly lousy way to kill the GBR.

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    pat

    couldn’t access this at PopSci; excerpts from cached version. ***isn’t it ironic?:

    25 Sept: Popular Science: A warming Arctic can actually make our winters colder
    Can you say polar vortex?
    By Kendra Pierre-Louis
    Arctic ocean melting sends warmer air into the atmosphere, shifting the polar vortex…
    The winter of 2014-2015 is remembered, at least by many, as the winter that the city of Boston lost its mind. That is the winter when New England—a region synonymous with frost—managed to capture national attention for receiving what can only be described as preposterous levels of snow. The city trounced its previous record of 107.6 inches, set in 1995-96, by a whole inch. In an average year, the city is hit with around 43 inches…

    But 2015 wasn’t just unusually snowy. It was also unusually cold. Beantown achieved the frigid distinction of hitting the longest stretch of temperatures below 40 degrees since record keeping began in 1872. And it wasn’t just Boston that got chilly. Those living in the mid-northerly latitudes have noticed that unusually warm winters, like the one that happened the following year (2015-2016), have been interspersed with unusually cold ones. A 2016 study in the Journal of Geophysical Research found that extreme winters are becoming more common in the United States. A recently released study in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society could help explain why.

    The culprit, somewhat ***ironically, is a warming Arctic. As the Arctic warms due to climate change, it’s causing shifts in what’s called the polar vortex—a large area of low pressure and cold air surrounding both of the Earth’s poles.
    The new study isn’t the first to find this link; earlier reports have shown that a warming Arctic can paradoxically lead to colder winters. What this study does, however, is shed some light onto how…

    It’s not just the United States experiencing this periodic plunge in winter temperatures. In fact, the effect is stronger over Asia and Europe. In 2012, many Russians froze to death as the nation registered the coldest winter in over 70 years. Temperatures plunged to -58 F. Last winter Stockholm, Sweden was buried in 15 inches of snow as a cold front hovered in the region. It’s the most snow to fall in the month of November in 111 years of record keeping…

    In other words, though many think of climate change as “global warming,” the reality is more complicated. A warming climate sends ripples of change across the entire climate system, which sometimes means some very cold winters. The biggest issue isn’t the cold; it’s the variability. Because of climate change, we now vacillate between winters so warm that ski resorts are forced to close early, to winters so cold and snowy that ski bums can’t even reach the slopes.
    http://www.popsci.com/warm-arctic-cold-winter

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    pat

    AFR picks up the Logan/Tesla/solar story, but also doesn’t bother to ask about the cost? it’s all “benefits”!

    26 Sept: AFR: Mark Ludlow: Brisbane’s Logan City Council goes ‘off-grid’ with Tesla
    Apart from projected savings of $50,000 a year in operating costs, the 323 solar panels and 95-kilowatt-hour capacity battery has opened up new possibilities for local councils and government agencies across the country who want to take the edge off rapidly increasing power bills…

    The Tesla Powerpack system for the 20-megalitre Round Mountain Reservoir and water treatment and chlorination system was delivered by battery and solar provider CSR Bradford and will be officially commissioned by Logan City Council on Wednesday.

    The reservoir does not need power to pump water to local residents – using the height of the reservoir to push the water through the pipes – only for the chlorination process which costs about $50,000 a year. The $1.9 million capital cost included connecting to the grid as well as road infrastructure to the site…

    With Logan expected to experience population growth of 37 per cent over the next 20 years, Councillor Smith said the council, through its Logan Water Infrastructure Alliance (a public and private sector enterprise involving Logan City Council, Downer, Cardno and WSP Parsons Brinckerhoff), would be looking to use off-grid solutions for more water treatment plants.

    “All our sewage and water treatment plants are energy intensive and we spend quite a lot of money on them. For us to start on a small project like this to keep it off the grid is actually giving us a way forward that we can make those larger plants more cost effective and energy efficient. It has become a test case for other facilities we are going to build,” he said…

    Local Government Association of Queensland executive director Greg Hallam said they were helping the 77 councils across the state become smarter with their energy use, including 21 sites for geothermal and solar thermal facilities. Through their own company, the first geothermal facility in Winton in Central West Queensland will be be opened in December which will allow all council assets to be taken off-grid, with another four sites to follow in 2018.

    ***”Energy is a massive cost for councils. We have taken the rights to all geothermal power in Queensland so we’re an energy company in our own right now,” he said…
    http://www.afr.com/news/politics/brisbanes-logan-city-council-goes-offgrid-with-tesla-20170925-gyoqrl

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      Forrest Gardener

      They could of course go off grid using diesel generators as well.

      I just want to know two things:
      1. cost using the off grid technology; and
      2. cost using on grid technology.

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    pat

    29 Sept: UK Evening Standard: Hurricane blow looms for Lloyd’s of London profits
    by Michael Bow
    Lloyd’s of London looks set to make its first annual loss in six years because of a string of powerful US hurricanes, and today revealed a slump in first-half profits.
    Hurricane Irma and Harvey will lead to $4.5 billion (£3.4 billion) of net claims in the Lloyd’s market, the corporation warned, with further losses expected from Hurricane Maria…

    The institution, based in Lime Street, offers a market for 50 firms and 200 brokers to buy and sell insurance and is a proxy for the insurance and reinsurance industry globally.
    Chief executive Inga Beale said the market could “weather the storm” as profits for the six months ending June, which didn’t include the hurricanes, fell to £1.2 billion…
    “We have net financial resource of £28 billion so Lloyd’s is in a very strong position to weather the storm.”…

    JP Morgan has also warned 2017 could be the most costly year on record for ***natural catastrophe losses.

    Beale said the impact of ***climate change meant freak weather events were likely to continue.
    “Looking at the temperature of the sea it is no surprise that there have been some extreme hurricanes. The sea temperatures are very high, so we think there is a connection between climate change and weather-related events,” she added…
    https://www.standard.co.uk/business/hurricane-blow-looms-for-lloyd-s-of-london-profits-a3645911.html

    threat “multiplier”!

    28 Sept: InsideClimateNews: Costs of Climate Change: Early Estimate for Hurricanes, Fires Reaches $300 Billion
    A new report starts adding up the damage from the past few weeks of western wildfires and Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria. It sees climate costs rising
    By Sabrina Shankman
    (Sabrina Shankman is a producer and reporter for InsideClimate News. She joined ICN in the fall of 2013, after helping produce documentaries and interactives for the PBS show “Frontline” since 2010 with 2over10 Media. She is the author of the ICN book “Meltdown: Terror at the Top of the World,” and was named a finalist for the Livingston Awards for Young Journalists for that work. Shankman has a Masters in Journalism from UC Berkeley’s Graduate School of Journalism)

    Over the course of a few weeks, the hurricanes and wildfires left a trail of damage that could add up to nearly $300 billion, according to early estimates from the authors of “The Economic Case for Climate Action in the United States (LINK),” a report released on Wednesday by the nonprofit Universal Ecological Fund…

    “The evidence is undeniable. These recent extreme weather events are a continuation of a three-decades trend of increasing numbers, intensities and costs of severe storms, hurricanes, flooding, droughts and wildfires,” said report co-author Robert Watson, a former chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. “Simply, the more fossil fuels we burn, the faster the climate continues to change and cost. Thus, transitioning to a low-carbon economy is essential for economic growth and is cheaper than the gigantic costs of inaction.”…

    As climate change progresses, coastal cities like Miami, Boston, New York, Seattle and San Diego are the most at risk from sea level rise. “The question is when and how much sea level will rise,” said James McCarthy, a professor of oceanography at Harvard University and a coauthor of the report. “Lives and almost $1 trillion worth of real estate in coastal areas are at stake.”…

    What to Do About It?
    The report calls for more efficient use of energy and a shift toward renewable energy sources to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions that are driving climate change…

    Though the scientific consensus that human activities are driving climate change is clear, there is a degree of uncertainty. Peter Howard, the economics director at NYU’s Institute for Policy Integrity, said that while skeptics may grab onto that uncertainty as a reason to do nothing, from an economic perspective, the uncertainty suggests we should do more…
    https://insideclimatenews.org/news/28092017/hurricane-maria-irma-harvey-wildfires-damage-cost-estimate-record-climate-change

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      Curious George

      Lloyd’s raked in profits for 12 hurricane-free years. Now they have to pay for not one, but three hurricanes! Totally unacceptable! Trump must go!

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    pat

    note headline – not CAGW, but “climate change”:

    28 Sept: ABC America: Most now see climate change as responsible for hurricane severity (POLL)
    By SOFI SINOZICH
    More than half of Americans now see climate change as responsible for the severity of recent hurricanes – an about-face from 12 years ago, when most attributed it to happenstance.
    ***See PDF with full results here (LINK).

    The latest ABC News/Washington Post poll finds a near-universal shift in this direction, even among formerly skeptical groups, albeit with smaller gains among Republicans and Republican-leaning groups.

    In a Pew poll in early September 2005, shortly after Hurricane Katrina, just a quarter of Americans thought climate change likely was responsible for its severity. Two-thirds said it was more likely “just the kind of severe weather that happens from time to time.”…

    The shift is highly partisan. Seventy-eight percent of Democrats, whose party made combating climate change part of its 2016 election platform, mainly blame climate change for hurricane severity, a 47 percentage-point increase from 2005. So do 56 percent of independents, a 27-point increase. By contrast, after an 8-point bump in the weeks following the devastation of Katrina, there’s been essentially no change among Republicans, with about a quarter blaming climate change in late September 2005, 2006 and 2017 alike.

    That’s particularly notable in light of large swings among other groups such as ***college graduates (61 percent, vs. 22 percent in early September 2005) toward climate change as the main cause, as well as smaller but significant increases among many others…

    This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Sept. 18-21, 2017, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,002 adults. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 31-23-36 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents.

    The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New York, N.Y., with sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt Associates of Cambridge, Massachusetts. See details on the survey’s methodology here (LINK).
    http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/now-climate-change-responsible-hurricane-severity-poll/story?id=50135214

    ***PDF has one question and alleged response only. no mention of MANMADE:

    Full results follow.
    1-10, 12-29 previously released
    11. Do you think the severity of recent hurricanes is most likely (the result of global climate change), or is it (just the kind of severe weather events that happen from time to time)?

    behind paywall:

    WaPo: Majority of Americans now say climate change makes hurricanes more intense
    Washington Post-28 Sep. 2017
    A majority of Americans say that global climate change contributed to the severity of recent hurricanes in Florida and Texas…

    Majority of Americans now say climate change makes hurricanes more intense, poll finds
    The Independent · 17 hours ago

    Poll: Majority Says Climate Change Responsible For Severity of Hurricanes
    The Weather Channel · 9 hours ago

    Majority Of Americans Accept That Climate Change Makes Hurricanes More Severe
    IFLScience· 15h ago

    P.S. even if the results are real, so what?

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      sophocles

      Majority Of Americans Accept That Climate Change Makes Hurricanes More Severe

      …because the ignorant say so. We don’t yet know exactly how and why they form, nor how they intensify but it certainly isn’t a magical property of that trace gas CO2. It may well be Solar Activity which is behind it but with the current misdirection of funding and grants, it’s not likely that we will find out anytime soon.

      Still, there is some serious speculation built from a huge run of coincidences into a much more realistic consideration of causes of both their formation and intensification. No mechanism is yet proven, nor known, only postulated.

      Piers Corbyn of Weather Action earns his living by making medium to long term weather forecasts. He noted a connection between certain solar activities and terrestrial weather a couple of decades ago as a result of his solar research. He seems to be persistently more accurate than the UK Met Office and he doesn’t have a UKP 93,000,000 supercomputer to assist him.

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      Rah

      Same sources said their polls showed Hilary Clinton would win the election in a landslide.

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    pat

    323 solar panels and a 95 kWh Tesla Powerpack cost nothing, it would seem.
    no mention of cost in the following links:

    One Tesla Powerpack Just Saved This Australian Town $1.5 Million
    A single Tesla Powerpack saved Logan City in South-East Queensland over a million dollar in grid connection costs.
    interestingengineering.com – 11 hrs ago

    An Australian City Saved $1.5 Million by Installing a Tesla Powerpack
    Futurism-28 Sep. 2017

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    David Maddison

    When they talk about the capacity of the mega batteries I would like to know what they are referring to. Most battery technologies result in greatly reduced battery life if they are discharged 100% and for maximum life they should be discharged much less than this. This is a bit like the capacity factor for wind and solar. They quote the theoretical maximum but it is unachievable.

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    pat

    btw I cannot find a single search result, other than the ABC one, on the subject of this thread. MSM not interested, except perhaps for:

    30 Sept: CairnsPost: Scientists startled by discovery of tiny signs of life in bleached coral
    http://www.cairnspost.com.au/news/cairns/scientists-startled-by-discovery-of-tiny-signs-of-life-in-bleached-coral/news-story/0d6382773e75454a25fca540161dea52

    unfortunately, above is premium content requiring subscription. did manage to see the following on the subscription page:

    Tiny signs of life for bleached coral
    CORALS may be hardier than first thought when it comes to surviving bleaching, with…

    however, this is being picked up:

    PICS: 27 Sept: Cairns Post: Marine biologist makes amazing discovery at Great Barrier Reef
    THE Great Barrier Reef just got even cooler.
    A marine biologist discovered something more than just fish and coral at a secret location after spotting it on Google maps.
    Whitsundays-based marine biologist, Johnny Gaskell, has discovered an unknown Blue Hole in the Great Barrier Reef, after spotting it on Google maps.
    But don’t expect to dive it anytime soon as Mr Gaskell will not reveal the location of the Blue Hole and maintains it as a new local secret in the heart of the Great Barrier Reef.

    Mr Gaskell captured incredible footage of the hidden lagoon from above and the thriving coral that lies within.
    “After spotting this blue hole on Google maps, we decided to head far offshore, further than our normal Reef trips to see what dwelled within,” Mr Gaskell said.
    “What we found inside was hard to believe considering 5 months ago a category 4 cyclone went straight over the top of it.”

    Gaskell believes he and his team may be the first to ever dive the Blue Hole with the lagoon walls acting as a source of protection to the coral for decades.
    “At around 15 to 20 meters deep, there were huge Birdsnest Corals (Seriatopora) and super elongated Staghorn Corals (Acropora), both of which were among the biggest and most delicate colonies I’ve ever seen,” Mr Gaskell said.
    “It’s not as deep as the famous Great Blue Hole in Belize but it is a really unique spot,” he said.
    http://www.cairnspost.com.au/news/marine-biologist-makes-amazing-new-discovery-at-great-barrier-reef/news-story/0e24a19dbcb0e1f31bafddc03a851cea

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    pat

    btw it seems Neil Cantin is quoted in the Cairns Post article I can’t access:

    Scientists startled by discovery of tiny signs of life in bleached coral
    The Cairns Post-9 hours ago
    … off Cairns and a reef off Townsville, this month. There, they found bleached corals containing tiny sacs of white eggs. AIMS coral biologist Dr Neal Cantin said …

    read all, despite it being a bit of a puff piece:

    30 Sept: ScienceAlert: Here’s How Scientists Are Mapping The Decline of The Great Barrier Reef With AI
    When all you can do is watch.
    by JACINTA BOWLER
    (BOTTOM OF ARTICLE: ***(Queensland University of Technology is a sponsor of ScienceAlert)

    We’ve all heard the terrible stories about the Great Barrier Reef, and the extensive bleaching that has occurred in recent years.
    But despite what some news outlets might think, the reef is not actually dead, and we still need to monitor what’s happening closely to try to stop the damage where possible.

    That’s why a team from the Queensland University of Technology (QUT) and the Australian Institute for Marine Science (AIMS) are working on developing a range of technologies to map, monitor, and keep an eye on the health of the Great Barrier Reef…
    https://www.sciencealert.com/here-s-how-scientists-are-mapping-the-decline-of-the-great-barrier-reef-with-ai

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    pat

    startled & alarmed…lengthy, read all.

    29 Sept: Vox: One of the clearest signs of climate change in Hurricanes Maria, Irma, and Harvey was the rain
    Warmer temperatures are increasing the energy and moisture available to hurricanes.
    Updated by Umair Irfan
    As Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria plowed through unusually warm oceans this summer, each one broke records, STARTLING even the scientists who study extreme weather.
    “All of these storms went through a period where they gained strength quickly,” said James Kossin, an atmospheric scientist at the NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction. “That was ALARMING.”…

    Scientists say the extreme rainfall events that feed these floods are on the rise for many parts of the world, and this year’s hurricanes fit that trend. In particular, rising temperatures in the ocean and the air alongside booming construction in vulnerable areas are fueling the increased risk from massive deluges…

    The climate signal in deluges like these is emerging
    No single weather event — even an extreme one — can be “caused” by climate change, as Vox’s David Roberts has explained (LINK) in detail…
    (George Huffman, a research meteorologist at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center) said he’s not yet sure if this storm season is “unprecedented” in its ferocity…

    And scientists are getting better at figuring out when the torrential downpours are coming.
    “If you pay attention, we’ve had a really remarkable series of forecasts,” said Huffman…
    “Everything we see is consistent with what we expect climate change to do,” Kossin said…
    Huffman explained that researchers aim to combine different instruments to get a robust handle on rainfall…

    “We don’t really have anything on the surface [of the ocean] to tell us the details,” said Huffman. “When the chips are really down, sometimes satellites are the only choice.”
    That means the full accounting for the rainfall from Harvey, Irma, and Maria could take months to deliver as meteorologists piece together their models with the measurements they have…

    However, scientists are eagerly waiting for the dust to settle so they can confirm their suspicions about the record-breaking storms this year. The American Geophysical Union added a last-minute session for researchers to present their findings on Harvey and Irma at their December meeting.
    “There’s going to be a tremendous amount of research coming out in the next few months,” Kapnick said.
    https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/9/28/16362522/hurricane-maria-2017-irma-harvey-rain-flooding-climate-change

    above is yet another example of the FakeNewsMSM grooming the public to believe natural disaster are CAGW.
    the writer was previously with E&E/Climatewire.

    Naomi Klein’s “This Changes Everything: Capitalism Vs. The Climate” referenced Umair Irfan’s “Report finds ‘Motivated Avoidance’ plays a role in climate change politics”, ClimateWire, Dec 19, 2011 about a silly study, with Yale’s Dan Kahan throwing in his politically partisan two cents worth, etc. can be found at cached E&E version online:

    AmericanPsychologicalAssociation PsycNET: On the perpetuation of ignorance: System dependence, system justification, and the motivated avoidance of sociopolitical information.
    Authors: Shepherd, Steven, Kay, Aaron C.
    Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, Vol 102(2), Feb 2012, 264-280
    [Correction Notice: An erratum for this article was reported in Vol 102(2) of Journal of Personality and Social Psychology (see record 2011-28190-001). Due to a production error, the article was published with the images omitted from Appendix A. All versions of this article have been corrected.]
    PURCHASE PDF

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    pat

    the big new surprise/Alarm being picked up by MSM:

    Surprising some, tropics aren’t a carbon sink — study
    E&E News· 16h ago

    29 Sept: Guardian: Alarm as study reveals world’s tropical forests are huge carbon emission source
    Forests globally are so degraded that instead of absorbing emissions they now release more carbon annually than all the traffic in the US, say researchers
    by Jonathan Watts
    Researchers found that forest areas in South America, Africa and Asia – which have until recently played a key role in absorbing greenhouse gases – are now releasing 425 teragrams of carbon annually, which is more than all the traffic in the United States…

    The authors say their findings – published in the journal Science on Thursday (LINK) – should galvanise policymakers to take remedial action.
    “This shows that we can’t just sit back. The forest is not doing what we thought it was doing,” said Alessandro Baccini, who is one of the leader authors of the research team from Woods Hole Research Center and Boston University. “As always, trees are removing carbon from the atmosphere, but the volume of the forest is no longer enough to compensate for the losses. The region is not a sink any more.”…

    “Prior to this we knew degradation was a problem but we didn’t know where or how much,” said Wayne Walker, another of the lead authors. “It’s easier to address the problem when there is still some of the forest left standing.”
    The priority is to protect pristine forests with high carbon density. The most effective way of doing this, he said, was to support land rights for indigenous people. “Those living in the forest can make a difference,” Walker said…

    “When I look at these numbers and the map of where the changes are occurring, it’s shocking,” said Baccini, who has a two-year-old son. “My child may not see many of the forests. At this rate of change, they will not be there.”…
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/sep/28/alarm-as-study-reveals-worlds-tropical-forests-are-huge-carbon-emission-source

    Tropical forests may be carbon sources, not sinks
    Nature.com· 12h ago

    behind paywall:

    Tropical forests used to protect us from climate change. Now, scientists say, they are making it worse
    Washington Post-28 Sep. 2017

    Tropical forests now emit more carbon than they soak up
    PBS NewsHour· Sep 29, 2017

    Death by 1,000 Cuts: Why the Forest Carbon Sink Is Disappearing
    InsideClimate News· Sep 29, 2017

    New measurements show widespread forest loss has reversed the role of tropics as a carbon sink
    Phys.Org· Sep 29, 2017

    Study Finds Tropical Forests Are No Longer Carbon Sinks
    Yale Environment 360· 9h ago

    Tropical forests used to absorb carbon. Now they emit as much as all US transit.
    Quartz· Sep 29, 2017

    Damaged tropical forests now emit more carbon than all the vehicles in U.S. – Thomson Reuters
    CBC.ca-28 Sep. 2017

    Tropical forests have become a net carbon source: Study
    CNBC-15 hours ago
    “These findings provide the world with a wakeup call on forests,” Alessandro Baccini, WHRC scientist and lead author of the report, said…

    Surprisingly, Tropical Forests Are Not a Carbon Sink
    Scientific American-11 hours ago

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    pat

    28 Sept: Science Mag: Tropical forests are a net carbon source based on aboveground measurements of gain and loss
    A. Baccini1,*,
    W. Walker1,
    L. Carvalho2,
    M. Farina1,
    D. Sulla-Menashe3,
    R. A. Houghton1
    1The Woods Hole Research Center, 149 Woods Hole Road, Falmouth, MA 04523, USA.
    2Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA.
    3Department of Earth and Environment, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA.
    Abstract
    The carbon balance of tropical ecosystems remains uncertain, with top-down atmospheric studies suggesting an overall sink and bottom-up ecological approaches indicating a modest net source…ETC
    This article is available to AAAS members. If you are a AAAS Member use your via AAAS ID and password to log in. Not a member? Click here to join.
    http://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2017/09/27/science.aam5962

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    Dennis

    So I just took delivery of a new intercooler turbo diesel Isuzu 4WD SUV and the sales guy was running me through the electronics, he went to “Eco” on the screen and pressed, there was a meter that will reveal my careful driving and best fuel consumption resulting for the rest of my ownership period.

    And, as I am judged green trees will appear on the right where now there are bare hills.

    I am so (not) excited!

    And can’t wait at the end of each drive to see the good I have done.

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    Robert Rosicka

    Completely over the top , go tigers .

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    Robert Rosicka

    Hey I notice SA power demand just dropped , anything to do with TV’s being switched off ?

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      Dennis

      Now, if only the wind keeps blowing at the right speed.

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        Robert Rosicka

        And that’s the point , no wind , the interconnectors go down and there’s a problem with the gas turbines due to heat etc and you are left with a battery that’s going to get you two fifths of fug all .

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          David Maddison

          Where is the power to recharge the Big Battery meant to come from? Victoriastan via the interconnector perhaps?

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    Another Ian

    As the thread has strayed to things electrical and batteries

    “Why Is It So Hard To Get Even Smart People To Think Clearly on Electric Vehicle Efficiency?”

    http://www.coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2017/09/why-is-it-so-hard-to-get-even-smart-people-to-think-clearly-on-electric-vehicle-efficiency.html

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      Another Ian

      And

      Apple and Google, who are making points with the public and the media by declaring themselves to be 96% and 100% renewables-powered even though Apple still obtains well over half of its electricity from non-renewable sources and Google probably over 80%.

      Apple, Google, and how not to go 100% renewable”

      Link at

      http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/2017/09/how-not-to-go-1.html#comments

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      Dennis

      The problem with all this is that most of the barriers to using electricity in more applications are not related to motor efficiency. For vehicles, the problem is in energy storage density. Many different approaches to powering automobiles were tried in the early days, including electric and steam powered cars. The main reason, I think, that gasoline won out was due to energy storage density. 15 gallons of gasoline weighs 90 pounds and takes up 2 cubic feet. This will carry a 40 mpg car 600 miles. The Tesla Model S 85kwh battery pack weighs 1200 pounds and will carry the car 265 miles (from this article the cells themselves occupy about 4 cubic feet if packed perfectly but in this video the whole pack looks much larger). We can see that even with what Musk claims is twice the energy density of other batteries, the Tesla gets 0.22 miles per pound of fuel/battery while the regular car can get 6.7. More than an order of magnitude, that is simply an enormous difference, and explains the continued existence of internal combustion engines much better than electric motor inefficiencies.

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    TinyCO2

    Coral beds are essentially good real estate. The right distance from the beach and the right amount of sunshine and good restaurants. Corals need somewhere to get on the property ladder and a newly bleached reef area is just the right spot for the millennials and go getters. Despite the large regeneration zone, there will still be millions of disappointed young house hunters. Humans are just lucky that they don’t become fish food if they don’t find a property within a few weeks or months.

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    [...] The Great Barrier Reef is recovering ‘surprisingly’ fast, according to Australia’s state propagandist ABC. Optimism is rising among scientists that parts of the Great Barrier Reef that were severely bleached over the past two years are making a recovery. [...]

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    tom0mason

    The biggest problem for warmists when it comes to corals are two fold.

    1. Lack of knowledge — there is no long term studies of corals, so anything unusual that happens with them is flagged up as ‘unprecedented’. Bottom line is we do not know if anything that happens with coral in the short term is ‘unprecedented’ or not.
    What was the state of corals during other climatically warm periods, say three to four hundred years ago before the LIA, or during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP)? Just an unknown, though some core drilling of old coral has, and is, being done to research this, though it should be noted we have very little idea what is the life cycle of a coral reef.

    2. The warmists behave like corals are somehow very fragile.
    It is known that corals die when certain chemicals from suncreams get on them, and that high nitrogen pollution badly affects them (http://www.reefresilience.org/coral-reefs/stressors/local-stressors/pollution/ [with thanks to ‘oldbrew’ for this link]) but they have been around for millions of years and so have already survived huge changes in climate.
    Also of note is the corals around Bikini Atoll that have survived being blasted by an H-bomb. (see http://www.bikiniatoll.com/BIKINICORALS.pdf for more information)
    Fragile? Perhaps not.

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