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Hazelwood Countdown: 53 years old and making more electricity than Australia’s entire wind industry

Three days to go: The Hazelwood shut down begins

The situation in Australia right now:

Total wind power, NEM, Australian electricity market, graph, total fossil fuel output, March 2017

The total fossil fuel output compared to total wind power generation, NEM, Australian electricity market, 21 March 2017

One old coal plant makes more electricity than all the wind farms

Guest Post by TonyfromOZ and Jo Nova

I’ve been watching the output of all eight generators at Hazelwood closely all month and comparing it to the total wind farm generation across the National Electricity Market (NEM). The old warhorse is a remarkable engineering and economic success.

I’ve kept a total of the power output each day from midnight to midnight and a running cumulative total. So far, the running total output from Hazelwood has always stayed ahead of the total from wind farms.  So this 53 year old coal fired plant that is being shut down next week has produced more energy than the 43 wind plants on the National Energy Market. Even if we could store the energy from the wind farms, it still doesn’t add up to the same as one very ancient coal plant. The shut down starts in three days time on Friday March 24th.

Over the first 18 days of this month the old coal workhorse still made 7% more power than all the windfarms in the National Energy Market (which is everywhere bar WA and the NT). Hazelwood has delivered 561GWH over these 18 days and wind, 521GWH. The extra 40GWH of energy means an extra 2,211,111KWH per day, and if the average home consumes 17.5KW per day, then that means the extra delivered by Hazelwood is enough to supply 126,350 homes, and for the full 24 hours of those 18 days.

In the Australian NEM grid, there are 43 wind plants, and around 2400 turbines on poles, and for 14 years they’ve been building them. Despite that, they’re still not delivering enough power to replace a 53 year old tired worn out coal fired plant that can still manage to get all its generators working. See my post for all the details as I track the closure of this large piece of infrastructure: Hazelwood Power Plant Closing 31st March – Currently Delivering More Power Than Every Wind Plant In Australia.

Renewables can’t even keep a small state running

South Australia only consumes 6% of Australia’s total power consumption, the second lowest in Australia, only marginally higher than Tasmania’s 4.5%.  If they cannot make renewables work on such a tiny scale, what does that say for Victoria, Queensland and NSW, and Australia as a whole? The wind industry began around the year 2000 in Australia. So, here we are, now 17 years later, and they still don’t generate enough power to replace one ancient power plant slated for closure. You tell me how good wind power is now.

I’ve been watching the output of the old coal generators closely. Here’s a typical example — at 3:20PM today.

In NSW:

Bayswater – all four units running – 2494MW – 30 years old

Liddell – three of four units running – 750MW – 46 years old

Eraring – all four units running – 2340MW – 35 years old

Vales Point – both units running – 11130MW – 40 years old

In Victoria:

Loy Yang – five of six units running – 2580MW – 32 years old

Yallourn – two of two units running – 680MW – 44 years old

Wind energy output

Total in the NEM in Australia varied from 200MW up to 2000MW this month. (Total nameplate capacity: 3900MW)

Most of the wind farms operate on a 30% capacity factor, even though they are a lot newer. Hazelwood is 53 years old, and is not generating its original Nameplate of 1600MW, but it can still make 86% of that total, which is pretty astonishing after 53 years. One of the oldest wind farms runs on just a 16% capacity factor. Challicum Hills in Victoria opened in 2003 with 35 turbines and a Nameplate of 52.5MW. Even on the best of windy days, the maximum power generation is only 40MW, so that’s 10.5MW short of the maximum, or 7 turbines possibly not even working at all.

When Hazelwood was new it ran at around a 90% Capacity Factor, and even now, after 53 years that has only dropped to around 60%, so effectively over its whole life it has managed (typical for large scale coal fired power) a capacity factor of around 70% lifetime. So, after 53 years, Hazelwood has generated 520.4 TWH of power, and I only expressed it that way because in MWH it’s a very long number: 520,349,760MWH

It has been delivering that power for around $30/MWH give or take, that’s 3c per KWhr and those prices are in today’s dollars.

So, from the sale of electricity alone, that comes in at  $15.6 billion  worth of electricity which is around $295 Million a year.

Here’s a graph comparing wind power across the entire NEM with the 1360MW provided by Hazelwood alone. Most of the time Hazelwood is outdoing all 43 wind farms. Only during peaks (yellow) does production climb above the total of this old power station.

Wind farm outout, March 2017, graph, National Electricity Market, NEM, Australia.

Wind farm outout, March 2017, graph, National Electricity Market, NEM, Australia.

This is what old coal reliability looks like:

Hazelwood Coal fired Generator, output, graph.

The output of the eight generating turbines at Hazelwood today March 21, 2017.

Are the engineers at Hazelwood defiantly showing off?

There appears to be some defiance going on from the people who work there, wanting to thumb their noses at the people who clamor for its closure. They’ve fixed one turbine this month and brought it back to speed when they didn’t need too.

One of the Units (Unit 8) was taken off line eight days back now. As I have explained, there are a lot of processes in the chain of power generation, and any one of them could be at fault. However, if the plant is scheduled to close at the end of the month, then there’s no real need to fix the problem. Just concentrate on the other units. However, yesterday at around 8AM, Unit 8 started to come back on line. It took 4 hours to reach full power delivery, but now it’s just humming along, just like the other seven units.

Probably, the people working there want to show the world that this ancient old plant (now four levels of technology lower than new tech coal fired power, and soon to be five) can still deliver the power. It’s astonishing to see all those 8 Units running, now constantly, 24 hours a day for almost three weeks, and when was the last time you saw 8 EH Holdens when you went out onto the roads. It’s not delivering its original rated 200MW per unit, but it is still at 86% of that.

 

h/t to David B for alerting me to a comment I might have missed.

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Hazelwood Countdown: 53 years old and making more electricity than Australia's entire wind industry, 9.6 out of 10 based on 128 ratings

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316 comments to Hazelwood Countdown: 53 years old and making more electricity than Australia’s entire wind industry

  • #
    PeterS

    I sincerely hope that both SA and Victoria have some many blackouts after the closure the people wake up to the fact socialism is economically flawed.

    861

    • #
      Robdel

      It is only continual blackouts that will bring the gimmesheep to their senses and see the end of cagw madness. Otherwise they won’t notice or care much.

      461

      • #
        crakar24

        Not in SA PeterS,

        Weatherill has turned this from a political disaster on the grandest of scales into a vote grabbing/election winning position.

        He did this by appealing to the SA populations absolute hatred of all things non SA.

        He berated Josh F on national TV and followed that up with a TV ad (paid for by the morons that live here) proclaiming SA was standing up to the eastern states, standing up to Canberra, jettisoning the AEMO because they pick on us by cutting off our power.

        This was a master stroke, the old “kick a vic” mentallity has begun to stir, “we dont need em” attitutes are being witnessed everywhere, and what of the oppostion………..nothing but crickets.

        Question, Has a state ever been so bereft of quality politicians like SA is now since federation?

        30

    • #
      Garry

      Sadly, it won’t. It will only force more power to be sucked out of NSW, until we too are living in the dark.

      311

      • #
        Graeme No.3

        Garry:
        The situation in SA is simple.
        On hot days (over 40℃) the wind turbines shut down (worries about electronics and insurance costs for fires), the roof top solar PV delivers less and the capacity of the interconnector is reduced). Demand rises to 3000-3050 MW.
        To meet this SA has 2700MW capacity (down from a good deal more) if everything is working. Demand will last around 8-12 hours or more).
        The difference will be supplied by the new Weatherdill Memorial OCGT (if it is ready this year) 250MW, the Tesla (or other battery) bank of 100MW (which will last an hour maybe) and as much diesel generators as are installed by Christmas.
        Should anything go wrong (e.g. gas shortage, breakdowns) then the difference will be supplied from the 78% of capacity left in Vic. through the interconnector (if it is working). In other words zero.
        If there are hot spells in the coming summer South Australia will have a series of blackouts leading up to the State Election. Even the dumbest incoming politician in the new Government will know that fixing the electricity supply is a priority.
        All other States will have politicians very concerned about loss of power.

        381

        • #
          Graeme No.3

          By the way I received my cheque today from SA Power Networks for the Dec. 28 … blackout. $405 but I would settle for a reliable supply, which is why I have bought a generator (along with many other people who don’t believe Weatherdill).

          311

        • #
          Robert Rosicka

          Not worried about power in Victoria, as a matter of fact we have so much we’re shutting Hazelwood, as for SA you’re gennie will come in handy and expect more of those bribes in the mail .

          102

        • #
          Chris in Hervey Bay

          And if the CFMEU is involved, I’d have to ask, “Which Christmas ?”.

          131

        • #
          Graeme#4

          Where does the hour backup from the Tesla 100MW battery come from Graeme? I’ve seen 3.6 mins and 1 hour quoted. I can understand the 3.6 mins figure but don’t comprehend the hour figure.

          51

      • #
        Robert Rosicka

        Oh I wouldn’t worry too much Gary , I’m sure NSW will remember that day when Victoria refused to load shed Ballarat and Bendigo , I know I would .

        51

      • #
        Graham Richards

        Encourage them to shut it all down. The sooner it happens the better.
        When we’re all floundering around in the dark & on the way to economic ruin the “believers”will wake up and God help those that shut it all down. There will be lynch mobs& anyone with “green” thoughts will be dealt with. The hoax will be revealed for all to see & all will se it buried..

        We really only learn from experience.

        111

    • #
      peter

      People are already lining up to blame the power problems on gas companies, coal lobbyists, the hard right of the Liberal Party, climate deniers and PM Turnbull. The penny hasn’t dropped and wont when blackouts occur. The usual scapegoats will be blamed and some even see Weatherill as a hero. If you doubt this, just observe the people coming out saying that generators need the certainty that can only be provided by an emission trading scheme or carbon tax.

      311

    • #
      turnedoutnice

      I did non-destructive testing of the high pressure steam tubes of a NSW power plant in 1967. It’s still working..

      281

    • #
      clive

      The trouble with “Socialism”is eventually you run out of other peoples money.(Margaret Thatcher)

      171

    • #
      Albert

      Seen on tv last night, the Greens want all coal mining and coal fired power stations shut down immediately. This would destroy Australia

      150

    • #
      crakar24

      Not in SA PeterS, (with apparent naughty word removed)

      Weatherill has turned this from a political disaster on the grandest of scales into a vote grabbing/election winning position.

      He did this by appealing to the SA populations absolute hatred of all things non SA.

      He berated Josh F on national TV and followed that up with a TV ad (paid for by the @$#%^ that live here) proclaiming SA was standing up to the eastern states, standing up to Canberra, jettisoning the AEMO because they pick on us by cutting off our power.

      This was a master stroke, the old “kick a vic” mentallity has begun to stir, “we dont need em” attitutes are being witnessed everywhere, and what of the oppostion………..nothing but crickets.

      Question, Has a state ever been so bereft of quality politicians like SA is now since federation?

      111

      • #
        crakar24

        OMG, first stuck in moderation, second attempt ends up here, was a response to Peters in comment #1

        31

    • #
      Albert

      On the Space Station there will be confusion, they will think we are North Korea……

      60

  • #
    Annie

    I’m hopping mad about it. Our ‘leaders’ seem to be utterly and wilfully stupid I’m afraid. I certainly did not vote for them or this crazy messing about with our lives. I was under the impression, when we came to Australia, that we came to a land of free spirits. Not so.

    491

    • #

      This could be a long, dark, winter in Victoristan this year.

      363

      • #
        Robert Rosicka

        We don’t have gas where we live and rely on wood heating , if (when) blackouts begin to bite I have a 2000 watt gennie and 6000 watts of battery storage with a 3000 watt inverter so with all that I should be able to keep the lights and fridge on .
        Just a pita to setup .

        161

        • #
          toorightmate

          Just wait until Joan Kirner in men’s clothing finds out that you are burning wood to warm yourself!!!
          You and you alone are heating our poor old planet with all the CO2 from burning wood.
          The CO2 horsesh*t has to stop.

          223

        • #

          We’re exactly the same. We had a gas fired Coonara when we moved in and it was costing over $120/week for gas bottles. A wood fire is much cheaper, costing a third to run, even if we have to buy all of our wood.

          31

        • #
          TedM

          I guess you actually mean “6,000 ampere hour” storage, so that sounds like a fairly substantial setup.

          11

          • #

            For some reason, people think that the Watt is a unit of energy. It is a unit of power.

            Power * Time = Energy

            I suspect he meant 6,000 Watt-hours

            A 2,000 Watt generator is correct terminology

            11

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      Annie, i think unless we really give our elected Reps an earbending they wont forget, they wont wake up.

      Its also worth pointing out to anyone you know ( your circle of influence is bigger than you think ) and explain to people using cold hard logic and actual events – how SA is the glimse into what lies ahead unless the socialists/green lunatics are stopped….

      331

      • #
        David Maddison

        My state “representative” doesn’t bother reading emails.

        41

        • #
          Apoxonbothyourhouses

          Nor my federal MP; all I ever get is an automated response. Recent article in The Australian claims representatives are shielded from Deplorables’ views.

          81

          • #
            Greebo

            My Federal bloke won’t even read mine since I told him what I thought of him back in 2015. My State bloke is James Merlino, so ’nuff said.

            41

    • #
      Rereke Whakaaro

      If you put a sign in your window saying, “Free Spirits”, you will have lots of very happy customers, sleeping it off, on your front porch.

      131

    • #
      Phillip Bratby

      It doesn’t take much for politicians to transform a first world country into a third world country. Take comfort from the fact that it is happening all across Europe as well.

      411

    • #
      Tom O

      You can scream at the leaders, but it’s the education system and media that are at fault. Politicians can’t get elected running against the philosophy of the majority of the people. The philosophy of the people comes from the education system that has stopped being honest generations back. This is compounded by the daily doses of propaganda from the media.

      Not realizing the source of the problem and just complaining about the politicians will never, ever solve the problem. Get serious about the source of the problem because every year the education system turns out another graduating class that has been steeped in AGW bull droppings and will only add to the problem of trying to regain control. Get rid of the idiots in the schools that are doling out the drivel, and in another 30 years, you might be able to take your country back.

      221

  • #
    Annie

    Is there anything to justify our East Gippsland- based family’s assertion that some modern units are to be built at Yallourn and Log Yang?

    72

    • #
      Annie

      Loy Yang…predictive text! :(

      51

      • #
        ROM

        Annie, Panic might be setting in amongst the political class as they have long past left any chances of replacing those fossil fueled base power generators by another viable generating system in time to compensate for the shutting down of the older generators.
        Even the shutting down of the older generators was totally avoidable and still is if the political class had merely decided that all the pontification on climate change was just pure hot air and they should just get rid of any legal impediments such as the RET to the operation of the fossil fuel generators and we would have immediately reverted to the old stable, reliable cheap generation of power with the unreliables actually competing under real world conditions to supply power to the citizenry.

        And with just a little political nouse and understanding of the advances in clean power generation technology and a great deal less puffing and nauseous displays of the collective chest on their legislation to Save the Planet all over again from that deadly “Carbon” the politicians could have instigated the legal requirements and the economic incentives for power generation corporations to begin planning for and building the latest generation of very clean and efficient coal fired generators.

        They could have taken their time and created the conditions for power generating corporations to begin construction of the very latest coal fired Ultra Super Critical HELE plants with their emmissions even lower than the low emmission closed cycle gas generators. And cheaper as well using cheap coal as against using expensive gas.

        But the arrogant, ignorant, technologically challenged political class became too wrapped up in and too enamoured and too believing [ As politicians one would think and believe that they would be wary of every scheme and con artist's smooth talk . But i guess most of them have shares in or have been tipped off when to buy shares in the unreliable generating industry so as to maximise their income on leaving politics ] of every Unreliable generating industry con man who has sweet talked those same politicians into parting with immense amounts of the tax payers hard earned and throwing at the Unreliable Generating industry as well as throwing huge disincentives at the fossil fuel fired generators to stop them from operating and thereby reducing the competition to the Unreliable Energy generating business.

        My guess is that the political class was so conned by the Unreliable Generating industry that they forgot all the political lessons they should have learned as politicians and became so enamoured with being the persons responsible for “Saving the Planet from Climate Change by Reducing Emmissions” that they lost ALL perspective of the importance of reliable energy which they as a class and as an age group, had never ever been exposed to or in a situation where the supply and reliability of electrical power became a major factor in the nation’s households and in the efficiency of its industries.

        I suspect that with the utter debacle of the power situation in SA and the shape shifting endeavours of Weatherill who denies everything which doesn’t seem to have impressed the SA voters one little bit, plus the developing power debacle here in Victoria created by the gross stupidity of a premier Despot Dan Andrews who is so limited intellectually and so rigid and fixated that he appears to have learn’t nothing at all from the SA debacle.

        This situation is likely to lead to a possible Trump type politician just turning up out of the blue sometime in the future who will reshape much of Australia’s politics over the next couple of decades as the voters and punters get a real dose and a real gut full of energy shortages and the utter stupidity of the energy policies of the current political and green and academic elitist class to the extent that anybody, any political party who promises to bring back cheap reliable efficient energy will romp into power at some future election.

        It has happened before here in Vic when Henry Bolte was appointed Premier because the couple of big raging political bulls couldn’t agree on who should be Premier and run the State.
        So Bolte was appointed as a temporary Premier while the bulls sorted themselves out in the smoke filled back rooms.
        One of those raging political bulls was killed in an aircrash on the way to the Queens coronation.

        Bolte was Premier and he remained Premier for the next 17 years and those political bulls, well who remembers anything about them anymore.

        Bolte also had a corner in one of the pubs in his electorate where he listened very carefully to all the pub gossip so as to see which way the populace was trending in its outlook on many government policies.

        Could anybody imagine Despot Dan and his mates in Vic or windmill Weatherill in SA copping a full on spray from the pub denizens, the workers, small contractors, traders, shop keepers and a very goodly collection these days of working women and housewives and kindergarten operators and nurses and the odd doctor etc when their power became unaffordable and or just wasn’t there anymore with any reliability?

        442

        • #
          Graeme No.3

          ROM:
          “This situation is likely to lead to a possible Trump type politician just turning up out of the blue sometime in the future who will reshape much of Australia’s politics” there was this fellow from SA called Cory something. I understand he has disappeared into electoral oblivion and nothing will be heard of him again.

          52

          • #
            ROM

            Nobody other than climate alarmist scientists, climate alarmist modellers and climate alarmist greens can ever predict the future!

            So when the Man, the Hour and the Circumstances all co-incide we will see the radical changes that are becoming overdue if our civilisation and society are not to go into a long term decline.

            I am somewhat of a believer in life cycles of organisations as I have both built a club as one of its first and long term members for over 50 years and have watched over its slow decline whilst wringing my hands after trying most of the nostrums that are supposed to bring increasingly moribund organisations back to another life.

            The answer in the end was obvious.

            My generation had built the club and we just expected the young ones to come in and take it up when we, the older generation had finally let go.

            Our mistake, a very large mistake made by innumerable organisations and corporations, was we totally overlooked that just as we had in our youth built a social structure up, the club in our case, the newer generations were out there just like we had been all those years past, building up their own social structures and organisations.

            And like our fading generation, they too are destined in most cases to be disappointed sometime in the future when the younger generation refuses to take up when they too will eventually have to let go.
            ———-
            So back to cycles and the future.

            One of the theorists on the Life Cycles of Corporations and Nations aren’t much more than immense Corporations with a social system and an inbuilt legal system which in this case I believe is applicable not only to corporations but also to businesses, societies, nations and democracies as well as totalitarian powers of every type and length and importance over a longer term and that is the “Adizes Corporate Life Cycle”.

            Now a Nation can’t go completely out of business although a few even in this modern world have gone close.
            But it can fall into a long term hole which might take anywhere from a few to many generations to dig itself out from before finding a new lease of life as a reborn and usually different in many ways Nation, but once again of some consequence in the world around it.

            So if you go through the Adizes Life cycle check points and their short explanation panels , [ longer and expanded explanations can be found by ticking the box,] , extend the Corporation orientation of the Adizes Life cycle graph presentation to the much longer decade length terms of a Nation and its national progression down through the decades and down through the various stages of its rise to prominence and then its usually long slow fall into a shadow of its former power and glory.

            Where we as a Nation are currently at on the Adizes scale is somewhere I think around the Corporation’s Aristocracy stage or even drifting into the Recriminations stage ;

            From the Adizes Aristocracy short panel explanation;

            The effects of the steady decline in flexibility, which began in Prime, start to become more obvious in Aristocracy. Because it has neglected to pursue long-term opportunities, the company’s focus becomes increasingly short-term. For the most part, its goals are financially-oriented and low-risk. With less of a long-term view, the climate in an Aristocratic organization is relatively stale.

            91

        • #
          Ted O'Brien.

          We had a Trump style politician, remember? He finished up being Al Gore’s proxy to protect the RET!

          How? Why? I want an investigation, a real one.

          91

        • #
          Duster

          The problem with “Trump-type” candidates is that they are like stopped clocks at best. They are only occasionally right, but their supporters don’t notice the repeated blunders in the glare of the things they agree about and actually may be true. “T-T” candidates come on all political stripes – not just from one wing. The “Trump” catastrophe here in the US would not have occurred if the government hadn’t actively pandered to the “loudest throats” of fruit loops whose thinking was just as screwy coming from the opposite side of the political spectrum, for decades. This was actively greased by an abundance of “precautionary principle,” so we can’t leave ambulance chasing lawyers out either. Another place where DT is “right” is in pointing at “the media.” Whilst there are many conscientious, fact driven reporters out there, their work tends not to appeal to a public that actually watches “reality TV.” Many more cater to sensational “threats”: global warming, crime, environmental degradation, illegal immigration, etc. They assure their audiences that the world is in a bad way and getting worse. It is not interesting that both the political left and the political right BOTH concur that the world is going to H*** in a handbasket? All they really argue over is the route to be taken. And then there is “the public,” a vast mass of ignorance that mostly can’t be bothered to vote.

          10

    • #

      I haven’t heard anything about that.

      61

  • #
    Robber

    For 2017 year to date, according to AEMO average wholesale prices (that exclude the $87/MWh that wind/solar generator receive from retail suppliers):
    NSW 75.8 $/MWh (7.6 cents/Kwh)
    Vic 51.2 $/MWh
    SA 104.9 $/MWh
    But daily prices have been going crazy during March, listing backwards from March 20:
    NSW 181 125 86 82 120 84 97 79 60 58 66 75 66 63 (all in $/MWh)
    Vic 171 107 65 69 86 93 95 64 41 49 79 80 70 54
    SA 344 145 102 62 79 101 118 92 36 56 98 99 101 92

    51

    • #

      Robber,

      those average wholesale costs are for all the plants added together and then averaged

      So, if Hazelwood (just one example) is selling at $30/MWH, then they total up all the MWH at that cost, and add in the cost for each plant (by MWH delivered) and then find the average cost per MWH State Wide, if you can see that.

      So, If Hazelwwod is contracted at $30/MWH, and the average State wide cost is $50+, then other plants must be getting some pretty large costs per MWH for their electricity. You can see this from the instantaneous spike, up to Christine Milne’s infamous $18,000MWH. That is an instantaneous spike and within seconds, the price settles down to the new adjusted cost.

      No power plant anywhere ever gets %18,000/MWH. That equates to X dollars for around the duration of the cost spike 10 seconds or so, an instantaneous spike.

      Tony.

      150

      • #
        AndyG55

        Hi Tony, minor re-wording needed

        When you say in 2nd paragraph after the list of coal power station..

        “When it was new it ran at around a 90% Capacity Factor, and even now,”

        you have just been talking about a wind farm at the end of previous paragraph.

        I suggest you change the second word to make it very clear you are now talking about Hazelwood again.

        Cheers.

        And nice report ! :-)

        71

      • #
        AndyG55

        Sorry Ian, didn’t see your post. :-)

        21

      • #
        Robber

        Thanks Tony. So does each one get what they bid, or the average for the 30 minutes? Tassie hydro takes power from Vic during low demand periods, and then turns the tap on to sell to Vic during the evening peak.

        70

        • #
          Rick Will

          All those supplying get the top spot price that was dispatched in their state market. Wind generators bid in at negative price so the spot price has to go negative before they come off line. Negative prices do occur in the SA market.

          10

  • #
    David S

    I like the way the workers at a Heywood timber mill have unions joining in protests to try save their jobs whilst not a peep when the workers and the public get screwed by the close of the Hazelwood facility. That says a lot about the unions and Labors priorities. Hopefully we will get a change of government before Victoria becomes a basket case.

    301

    • #
      Greebo

      Wouldn’t have anything to do with the unions having large sums invested in intermittents through the Industry Super Funds would it?

      31

  • #
    Annie

    The thing that infuriates me almost beyond description is the loss of their jobs by the people at Hazelwood. I see good work by so many around, not only there but locally, by farmers, graziers, smallholders and fruit growers, builders, plumbers, electricians, shopkeepers. I see them working so hard and having to pay huge taxes to finance the wasteful stupidities of governments. I see them struggling because of high energy bills and rents or mortgage payments and their hard-earned money being frittered including on bludgers who’ve never worked and never intend to and my blood boils.

    461

    • #
      Ted O'Brien.

      With the very worst tax being the “renewables” subsidy.

      170

    • #
      Raven

      Don’t worry Annie.

      Desperate Daniel is going to build sports arenas and all sorts of sporty type stuff for the Latrobe Valley people. Of course, given that the local lads will be out of a job, they’ll have plenty of time to kick a footy around.

      I’ve not noticed anyone pick him up on this which is depressing enough in itself.

      100

  • #

    As I mentioned, there will be a staged shutdown starting on Friday.

    I’m willing to hazard a guess that it will take at least three days, (probably more, considering there will still be Units running) for wind to catch up to the total power delivery from Hazelwood.

    Tony.

    260

    • #
      Chris in Hervey Bay

      Tony, how does the wind ‘catch up’ if there is little wind ?

      180

      • #
        Raven

        Dunno about the wind . . I’m waiting for the politics to catch up.

        I just don’t understand how our Dan can’t see the lunacy of closing this power station.

        100

        • #
          Egor the One

          Only lunatics cannot see the lunacy of their decisions.

          And Despot Dan is well qualified in this area along with many in his sad excuse for a state government!

          40

      • #
        Egor the One

        Blackouts here we come !

        30

    • #
      Nighthawk the Elder

      Tony,

      my sources tell me that it will actually commence next Monday 27th in the wee small hours, not this Friday. Keep an eye on those production figures over the weekend. Any unit that does come off before next Monday will be due to a fault and will probably stay off.

      Three days to progressively shut down is what my sources have told me as well.

      160

      • #

        Nighthawk the Elder,

        Thanks for that.

        I keep my eyes on those SCADA figures from NEM at least once every forty minutes or so, so I’ll see exactly when that begins to happen. It should take each Unit around 4 hours to wind back to zero, but I’ll be taking screen images of that when it does happen as each unit goes down, and I’ll then be converting those to images I can Post at my home site.

        I have details of how to view that output data at my own Post, if any of you wish to watch for yourselves.

        Even now, 8.30PM Tuesday, Hazelwood is making 1377MW form those 8 Units.

        Amazing that after 53 years, those things can still run flat out at their 3000RPM, hundreds of tonnes or so, rotating at that speed, just amazing really, and for at least six of those Units, that’s been for 20 days now.

        THAT is engineering.

        Tony.

        PS – Great Handle you’ve got.

        230

        • #
          Nighthawk the Elder

          No worries Tony.

          I should have mentioned, I’m told each unit shutdown will be approximately 8 hours apart, to manage the auxiliary load needed to shutdown each of the units safely. Too many units off at once might overload the auxiliary transformers. Winding the generation back on each unit will probably only take an hour or so to de-synchronize. It will still take between 4 to 6 hours to shut down the unit, including the fire out of the boiler, however I’ve been told they have given themselves a bit of margin in this case, for when things don’t quite go right and there might be a bit of a delay. Hence the 8 hours.

          As for my handle, I have to admit I “borrowed” that from my son a few years ago and added “the Elder” to differentiate us.

          Keep us all posted.

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        • #
          Wally

          When you stop one of those generators spinning, they have to keep turning to prevent sag of the armature. Done with a small motor, does not have to turn very fast.

          So you do you vandalise the plant so it can never run again.

          Shut down and stop them turning over.

          Want to take any bets on that happening?

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          • #
            Greebo

            I can see Andrews presiding over the demolition of the stacks as a publicity stunt. See, Jay, my stacks were bigger than your stacks.

            20

        • #
          Greebo

          I have had the good fortune to tour all of the LaTrobe Valley power stations. The scale of the engineering is truly awesome.

          20

  • #
    Mark

    Blackouts all the way down.

    201

  • #
    pat

    21 Mar: InternationalBusinessTimes: Shaurya Arya: Reliance on renewable energy not responsible for SA blackouts, Jay Witherill says
    On Monday, the Australian ­Energy Market Operator (AEMO) said it had warned new wind farms in SA required tougher technical standards as the state had an unstable energy mix. This, the operator said, could make the grid more susceptible to a breakdown. “The high proportion of non-synchronous intermittent generation in South Australia justifies having additional or tighter technical standards than those that currently apply,”AEMO said. The recommendation was made to an inquiry by the Essential Services Commission of SA into licence conditions for wind farms…

    Reports from eight years ago, provided to Senate inquiry, revealed that relying on wind power for more than 20 percent of the state’s electricity requirements could lead to negative consequences and hamper the stability of the grid…
    http://www.ibtimes.com.au/reliance-renewable-energy-not-responsible-sa-blackouts-jay-witherill-says-1547587

    20 Mar: EU Observer: Peter Teffer: German CO2 emissions up despite ‘energy transition’
    Germany emitted more greenhouse gasses in 2016 than in the previous year, but is still seen as a positive model for the rest of the world.
    The EU’s largest member state emitted the equivalent of 906 million tonnes of CO2 last year, compared to 902 million in 2015, the German Environment Agency reported on Monday (20 March)…

    The figures stood in contrast with Germany’s image as a front-runner in the transition towards clean energy – an image that it showcased on Monday at the Berlin Energy Transition Dialogue, a conference held in the building of the foreign affairs ministry…

    “In Germany alone we have created 300,000 jobs in this new industry that is the renewable industry,” said foreign minister Sigmar Gabriel in a speech…
    Brigitte Zypries, his counterpart from the economic affairs and energy ministry, said: “We are well-advised to work together for the transformation towards a climate-neutral future, and do it in a way that is economically viable”.
    Neither of them mentioned the 2016 figures…

    Some 40 percent of electricity generation in Germany currently comes from coal power plants…
    A possible coal phase-out is not high on the agenda of the electoral campaign, said the Greenpeace campaigner (Karsten Smid)…
    “She (Merkel) said we have to do a coal phase-out step by step and not going too fast with the coal phase-out. Nobody knows what it means,” he said…

    Bertrand Piccard was also at the press conference.
    Piccard was one of the pilots to fly a solar-powered plane around the Earth last year.
    ”Germany has to keep on going because it is a lighthouse to the world,” he added.

    Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, made a similar remark in his speech.
    He said Germany’s effort to create an energy transition were “a rich source for inspiration for all the countries across the world”.
    https://euobserver.com/environment/137298

    60

    • #
      el gordo

      … “a rich source for inspiration for all the countries across the world”.

      Indeed, Beijing is smitten.

      ‘Beijing shut down its last large-scale coal-fired power plant on Saturday, meaning that the capital now uses only clean energy for all electricity and heating.’

      China Daily

      50

    • #
      Raven

      In Germany alone we have created 300,000 jobs in this new industry that is the renewable industry . .

      Excellent . . . 300,000 people working to produce some of the most the most expensive electricity on the planet

      100

      • #
        ROM

        And a 2.5 to 4 ratio of loss of jobs in the rest of the economy for each Job created in the so called Renewable unreliable energy sector of wind and solar due to very large increases in power costs for every job ” created” [ almost entirely temporary construction jobs ] in the Unreliable wind and solar power generating industries.

        The above from memory of the Spanish University 2007 [ ? ] study on Spain’s renewable energy impact on its economy; ie 2.5 jobs lost per single job created in Spain’s renewable energy secto.

        A UK study claimed up to 4 jobs lost per Renewable energy created job;

        And the USA;
        Climate Activists Push Study Showing 3.8 Million Lost Jobs from Renewable Energy Transition

        Sample quote;

        Earlier this year, Hawaii announced a plan to go 100 percent renewable by 2050, the same implementation timeline that Jacobson estimates will cost the state nearly 10,000 permanent jobs. In 2013, Bloomberg News estimated that a 100 percent renewables plan for just the state of New York would cost about $382 billion.

        40

  • #
    Another Ian

    Tony

    ” Even on the best of windy days, the maximum power generation is only 40MW, so that’s 10.5MW short of the maximum, or 7 turbines possibly not even working at all.

    When it was new it ran at around a 90% Capacity Factor, ”

    Maybe replace “it” with “Hazelwood” so it doesn’t sound like wind suddenly got to 90% C.F. as I read it at first.

    60

  • #
    Geoffrey Williams

    Thanks Tony for all that information.
    Like everyone on this site I am lost for words at the utter lunacy of the green left wing politics that is behind this and similar closures. As an ex drafty who spent many years working on power plant I find it all too sad for words . .
    Geoff W

    310

  • #
    Steve

    What odds, it will be required to generate again in the future?

    120

    • #
      Hivemind

      “What odds, it will be required to generate again in the future?”

      That won’t be possible. Victoria will be just as obscenely quick to dynamite it as South Australia was with theirs.

      100

      • #
        Ted O'Brien.

        Exactly. Being in private ownership, it must be immediately incapacitated to ensure that it cannot be reopened to provide cheap electricity. The owners must protect the business model built around the current set of government regulations, a model which depends on high prices, not volume of output, for its profit.

        90

    • #
      crakar24

      The first thing they will need to do is fill in the coal mine etc. In SA the old playford site has had troubles with fly ash etc.

      Fill it in so noone can use it again then laugh your ass off when the state goes black, thats what I would do.

      10

    • #
      Greebo

      As Wally said, armature sag will kill it stone dead.

      10

  • #
    Rereke Whakaaro

    And in the mean time, the New Zealand Hydro stations just produce electricity whilst keeping the lakes filled, for the joy of the water skiers.

    110

    • #
      Peter C

      New Zealand has a lot of Hydro opportunities and also Geothermal. Lucky NZ (except for the earthquakes associated with the geothermal opportunity). They possibly could go 100% renewable on those sources alone. Why have they not done so?

      80

      • #
        Rod Stuart

        The answer to that question is that hydro, like other renewables, is entirely dependent on the weather.
        New Zealand has its dry spells, and part of the bargain is that the hydro lakes must retain a specified level of water for recreational purposes.
        The last time this became an issue was in 1999 and 2000.
        The Kiwis are clever enough to have not put all the eggs in one basket, and produce electricity from a range of sources including coal, geothermal, gas, and co-generation, and diesel.
        An intelligently designed electricity market shares the reward to whichever source is in the best position to supply.
        In 1999 AGL went across the ditch and purchased the Natural Gas Corporation and the assets of TransAlta New Zealand. AGL promptly ridded itself of the forward contracts and other hedges. As a consequence, when the drought bit hard six months later, it lost half a billion dollars in the month of June. Meridian and Genesis just didn’t have the water availble to bid into the system, so the wholesale price went ballistic. The lights stayed on.

        30

      • #
        Ross

        We have Greenies over here to Peter C.

        We have all this renewable energy produced but our electricity bills are still way above Australia.

        40

    • #
    • #
      Raven

      People shouldn’t be allowed to ski on that water.

      Do The Greens know about this?
      For heavens sake, people drink this water! . . and you wouldn’t allow anyone to ski on your tea!
      This is an outrage.

      And that, folks is how you get a protest party started.

      20

  • #

    Regarding the analogy of the EH Holden from 1964, and I don’t want to get into argument on how good or average it was, as it was the best selling car for that year, I wonder how many Government Departments, Federal or State still use EH Holdens as their, umm, Company cars.

    Everything else got updated to the latest models, well, for anything really, except power plants.

    Tony.

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    • #
      Ted O'Brien.

      Not being a Holden man I don’t know the model designations, but do remember the years. As I remember it, 1964 brought the new motors.

      The Holden was always regarded as a measure, and a valid measure, of Australia’s prosperity. After substantial inflation in the post war period, from if I remember right 480 pounds in 1948 to about 1,000 pounds in about 1958, the price of a Holden remained steady till about 1970, while the engineering improved a lot and wages rose very usefully. The 1960s were a time of dramatic economic advancement, not just Woodstock.

      Then we got Hawke at the ACTU and Whitlam as PM. And I still connect the AGW complex of scams, including these power station closures, to Hawke. His government hijacked the CSIRO in 1986.

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    • #
      Raven

      The EH Holden analogy is broadly OK, I reckon.

      If you were to drive around Australia next week and the choice of vehicle was an old EH or a Tesla, which one would have the best chance of making it?

      00

  • #
    pat

    21 Mar: Reuters: Trump says preparing new executive actions to save coal mining
    “As we speak we are preparing new executive actions to save our coal industry and to save our wonderful coal miners from continuing to be put out of work. The miners are coming back,” Trump told a rally in Louisville, Kentucky, without providing any details…

    21 Mar: Nasdaq: Reuters: New Hope profit soars, confident coal prices won’t drop
    New Hope Corp, Australia’s top independent coal producer, reported a near quadrupling in first-half underlying profit after four years of pain, and said it was confident coal prices would hold near current levels thanks to producers’ discipline.
    The company’s managing director, Shane Stephan, told Reuters on Tuesday he believed thermal coal prices would stay within China’s price target of $75-$85 a tonne, as no major supplies were expected to enter the market and weaken prices. “We’re seeing this domestic Chinese industry policy as being a significant influence on Asian thermal coal pricing for the foreseeable future,” Stephan said in an interview.
    Strong prices and New Hope’s acquisition of the Bengalla coal mine in Australia helped the company report its best first-half profit in four years, with underlying profits at A$54.9 million ($42.4 million) for the six months to Jan. 31…
    He said he did not fear plans by India’sAdani to build a 25 million tonnes a year mine in Queensland targeting first production in 2020, as that output was going to Adani’s own power stations in India…
    http://www.nasdaq.com/article/new-hope-profit-soars-confident-coal-prices-wont-drop-20170321-00079

    30

  • #
    pat

    20 Mar: BizJournals: Judge approves Peabody’s bankruptcy exit plan
    Peabody Energy Corp.’s bankruptcy exit plan has received formal approval from a U.S. judge after reaching an agreement with the U.S. Department of Justice over legacy environmental claims.
    U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Barry Schermer approved the exit late Friday. Peabody announced on Thursday that it plans to emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy in early April after Schermer ruled that he intended to confirm the coal company’s reorganization plan.
    Under the terms of the environmental settlement with the Department of Justice, Peabody agreed to create a $43 million trust to cover environmental liabilities from its now-dormant Gold Fields Mining subsidiary, Reuters reports…
    “This is a great day for Peabody and, more importantly, our multiple stakeholders who benefit from the many products and services we provide,” Peabody spokesman Vic Svec told Reuters…

    20 Mar: PR Newswire: Peabody Energy Recognized As “2017 Coal Mining Company Of The Year” By Corporate LiveWire
    from Peabody Energy
    Peabody Energy has been named coal mining company of the year for 2017 by United Kingdom-based Corporate LiveWire, recognizing the company’s excellence in safety performance, environmental stewardship and leadership in advancing technology solutions.

    The honors were given by a panel of judges as part of Corporate LiveWire’s annual awards program. The inaugural Energy & Mining Awards recognize the “most influential firms and individuals that stand out in their field from all corners of the world.”…
    “We are pleased to be globally recognized for our sustainable approach to mining, which is core to our mission and values,” said Peabody Energy President and Chief Executive Officer Glenn Kellow. “We take great pride in operating safely, restoring high-value lands and being a leading voice for advanced coal technologies.”…

    For nearly two decades Peabody has widely advocated the use of technology to lower emissions in power generation and other industrial uses, while investing hundreds of millions of dollars in clean coal technology projects and partnerships. Emissions progress begins with deployment of high-efficiency, low-emissions technologies that are available today. Longer-term investments in next-generation carbon capture, use and storage technologies are necessary to transition to the ultimate goal of near-zero emissions from coal-fueled power…

    Peabody Energy is the world’s largest private-sector coal company and a Fortune 500 company. The company serves metallurgical and thermal coal customers in 25 countries on six continents and has earned more than 100 awards for safety, corporate and environmental excellence in the past five years.
    http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/peabody-energy-recognized-as-2017-coal-mining-company-of-the-year-by-corporate-livewire-300426281.html

    30

  • #

    Vale Hazelwood and all that this implies.

    Say, where is the leader who will speak truth to green lunacy,
    who will steer the economy back to productivity based on cheap, efficient, not-intermittent energy? Who will stop the green-blob
    march back to the Dark Ages and restore our citizens’ historic customary rights to liberty? Some one to trump the coterie of
    crony-Goldmann-Sachs-capitalism, and leftist-elitist-top-down millennia-doom-fed-goals to turn off the lights of Western-once -freedom-allowing and innovative-society that ended famine, high
    child-mortality and slavery in the West… Enuff ter make a serf hyphenate like … see last post. (

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    • #
      King Geo

      Which brings Einstein’s famous quote to mind “Two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I am not sure about the universe”. I think the great man would have had the SA & VIC Premiers high on his examples of “human stupidity” – you are right these 2 Premiers are the top of the “human stupid pyramid” – yes “red lunatics dressed up as green” – with their efforts watch the states of SA (already) & VIC tank big-time.

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      • #
        Robert Rosicka

        Actually heard a different version of Einstein’s quote .
        ” the only difference between genius and stupidity is genius is limited ” .

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    • #
      Annie

      A serf could also hyperventilate I’m thinking. Not good for the BP either.

      40

  • #
    Geoff Sherrington

    Tony from Oz,

    The NSW and Vic main existing coal plant that you table is from 30 to 46 years old now. There is more to this than meets the eye.
    It would be more understandable if there were replacement plants in progress, so that as (say) Hazelwood closed, a new plant took its place.
    Way back when, someone seems to have made a decision not to build more coal plants. Otherwise, we would have a table showing plants built 5, 15, 25 years ago. None there, at least no major ones.
    Do we deduce that the green rot was controlling investment decisions as long as 30 years ago? Was there really no case for new coal plant from 1985 onward? One could accept this in a free and open market where there was proper competition from new styles of generation, such as would have happened if nuclear had not been hobbled. Renewables, you note, started to achieve scale about 2000, but what happened in the gap from 1985 to 2000? From memory, nothing comes to mind. Public awareness of Greenhouse did not really latch on until about 2005, so I am left with a conclusion that a quiet, non-public infiltration of the sector that provides energy started about 1985 and curbed the growth of more coal plant in favour of renewables.
    The Renewable Energy (Electricity) Act dates from year 2000. What happened to deter new/replacement coal plants in the 15 years before that?
    Do we have semi-anonymous heavyweight sleepers in Parliament/bureaucracy delaying certain developments before they even become controversial?
    I can recall in 1986 our plans to increase the number of Australian Uranium mines was met with a well-coordinated, international opposition dressed up as World Heritage and National Parks. We were, at the time, surprised by the number of heavy hitters with senior functions that came out of the woodwork to impede our efforts.
    I am thinking that we have to plan ahead for a longer horizon than we do when the going is about to get controversial.
    Geoff.

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    • #

      Pervasive Alynski-ite-ism marchin’
      tramp – tramp – tramp through the institutions.
      I know, I saw it in the late seventies at university.
      as in Schneider’s coming ice age or in the nineties
      global warming,stay on massage, blame it on the evil capitalists.

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    • #
      Robber

      Since the RET legislation was introduced, with an annual target for renewables rising to 33,000 GWh by 2020, retail electricity companies must buy renewable energy certificates to meet the annual target, and pay a current price of $87/MWh for the privilege, or pay a comparable penalty. So no-one will consider investing in coal/gas when the incentives favour intermittent wind/solar. Hazelwood might get $46.MWh, but Ararat wind farm gets that PLUS $87/MWh.

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    • #
      clive

      The RET killed the coal mines,thanks to”Our Lying,Do Nothing,Career Politicians”and the”UN” Hazelwoods closing was helped along by”Dan the CFMEU Man”increasing the tax’s by 300%.

      50

    • #
      Rob JM

      It was privatization that stopped the replacement of power stations. More supply means they can’t charge as much. Typical neoconman parasites destroying an essential public service.

      23

      • #
        ROM

        In the USA it is the Corporations also known as the private sector that was and is building both the nuclear generators in the past and the coal fired and gas fired generating stations.

        In China it is the big Chinese corporations building the probable excess of coal fired and nuclear generators hence the proposal to build a ultra high voltage transmission line into the Central Asian Republics and onto Europe to supply excess Chinese generated power to those regions.

        In Germany it is now the private corporations building new lignite [ brown coal to us ] fired generators as the Germans begin to back off the increasingly recognised highly Unreliable wind and almost totally useless in Germany, solar power.

        They all have one thing in common.
        Their governments are encouraging the building of these plants and are reducing and even forcing the rabid green cultists to step back from their crazy beliefs in the so called and completely hypothetical dangers of coal and its CO2 emmissions.

        In Australia we constantly see the abject and humiliating kowtowing of the entire political class to any semblence of opposition by the green water melon cultists and their placing of impossible economic, legislative and licensing hurdles in the way of any corporation that is willing to take the economic risk and build any very modern , high efficiency generators of just about any type be it coal or gas and god forbid, nuclear fired.

        Instead we are “lumbered” which is far too mild a word to describe the political stupidity that has brought a good part of Australia down to this impasse, with what has been known for at least two decades are extremely unreliable, unpredictable , immensely costly with no data supported advantages if one can call it that, in CO2 emission reductions and which is a total and abject failure when it comes to powering a modern industrialised nation like Australia and that is the completely unreliable renewable energy systems of wind and solar, neither of which have ever demonstrated that they in a very basic test of their abilities, to be ever capable of recreating and building themselves as a unique 100% renewable energy only system.

        And yet in their blatant stupidity and arrogant ignorance, the Australian political class just keeps on persisting with blindly trying to force the so called totally unreliable Renewable energy systems down our throats as the prime and major current and future source of Australia’s power needs.

        Privatisation of the power generators has absolutely nothing to do with our current lot of power generation stupidity .

        It is the solely the work and stupidity of the political, academic and bureaucratic classes with all their totally illogical and frequently out of their depth, quite spurious advice to the political class, that has created these current problems.

        And in fact it was the government owned, union run power generators and grid systems of the 1960′s and early 70′s where all the strikes and power shortages were created which I thought not so long ago were the the long gone bad old days of old that we had lived through and which we would not see the likes off again as the generators and grid was privatised under strict government guidelines and overseeing.

        It seems I was once again, unfortunately, very wrong!

        It is after all politics where sanity and logic and sensibility and intellectual analysis are completely discard the moment the newly elected to parliament candidates are sure of their political positions.

        20

    • #
      ROM

      Geoff @ # 18

      I touched on this in an above post but have been thinking about it a little more.

      The last great union power strikes when we were quite frequently short of power for a day or so at a time although blackouts were relatively rare as the unions didn’t want to be saddled with a very angry public.
      This was I think back in about the late 1960′s extending through until the early 1970′s when the political power of the unions started to decline.

      So we have close to two generations where, when they flicked that switch, the lights always came on, the appliances run,the heaters began to glow and the A/C’s hum, the machine tools began their sequence of operations and etc.

      Nobody gave any thought at all to where that power was being generated or how it was being generated.

      So the politicians and general public, and thats us, over those couple of generations where power was ALWAYS there at the switch when ever they needed it just forgot just how important that power was to our own lives and to our society , industry and economical advancement as a nation.

      So we now have a two generation long knowledge gap about the importance of reliable and constantly available cheap power always on tap at the flick of a switch.

      Exacerbated to the ninth degree by the decline of the religious forces in our society which the accepted religions have been replaced by a very similar religious movement, that of environmentalism.
      Environmentalism mimics almost exactly the great religions of the past few thousand years in its beliefs that we, each and every one of us as well as the human race as a totality, are deeply sinful and must repent of our sins and must therefore pay a heavy price in penance for those sins.

      The Environmental cult has now pervade so much of our culture and society’s mores to our great detriment in every aspect of our culture and society which we see an example of the total refusal by a large percentage of the populace to face the reality of rapidly declining living standards if and possibly when our incredibly beneficial and cheap electrical energy sources failand continue to fail possibly for increasing periods of time as our grid and maintenance infrastructure also begins to break down.

      Even the maintenance of our then very limited supplies of power will begin to fail as the energy sources for the maintenance crews, transport and tools and sensory systems surrounding the operation of the grid and its supply components become short or are no longer available.

      So very , very few of our primarily city based populace realise just how dependent we all are on that absolutely reliable supply of electrical power.

      They just continue to assume that a few batteries will overcome the problem without having a clue as to how little power is actually stored by even the most complex and most expensive array of batteries.
      They are totally ignorant of the need to draw power from the grid when the generators are actually operating to charge up those batteries which leaves a choice of in a low power availability situation of supplying the customers or depriving customers of power to charge up the highly inefficient grid batteries to cover for a few minute only, the low points in the generation supplies of power.

      They think or don’t even think or even comprehend that all that their smart phones will be totally useless after a few hours when the communications networks run out of their battery back up power.
      That credit cards now mostly used in lieu of cash will be completely useless as the banks ATM’s the EFTPO system and every electronic money transferring system fails as the power is cut off.

      Every single computer, business , domestic, trading, computerised product tracking and marketing systems, every thing electronic will simply stop as the power is cut off.
      With a consequent down stream effect of many complex systems just crashing and losing everything including back ups as the power fails for them also.

      They completely fail to realise that a lot of the food in the super markets will no longer be available as its storage and refrigeration needed to keep it at an acceptable level of health whilst it is transported hundreds of kilometres to each super market simply will not exist.
      A very wide range of products from the super markets will no longer be available as the huge central distribution stores for the super market chains will be inoperable as their central product controlling and distribution systems fail and become corrupted as the power goes out.

      Aall of the above is merely the tip of the iceberg for our society if and as we see the big base load coal fired generating plants closing down leaving only a totally useless without back up power so called renewable and utterly Unreliable Energy to fill just a fraction of the power demand as was so reliably supplied for close on half a century past by those big coal fired generators.
      —————-
      Perhaps a couple of ideas for the denizens and lurkers to consider for the future.

      Everybody is aware of the need for back up generators to supply power for homes, hospitals, businesses that can afford them and etc.

      But!
      1 /Make absolutely sure you have a large stock of the small denomination folding stuff hidden somewhere in your house of abode as Cash will buy you anything when the electronic monetary systems fail possibly for periods of days or more if the systems have to be rebuilt after being corrupted by the failure of their power supplies.

      2 / Learn to plan ahead and learn to NOT rely on your smart phones for anything as they too will go out of action within hours or a couple of days without power.

      3 / If you are on medications, make sure to be well ahead of those empty packets for both the electronic medical systems will fail and the distribution system will also fail after few days without power as the fuel sources are no longer operating without power and the tanks on the transport vehicles are emptied.

      4 / Put your entire business data and / or your critical domestic data on paper or on a hard copy somewhere and not just on the Cloud.

      And think of all those other myriad of situations which you might have to cope with over the next couple of years and have to make provision for until a crash program to build new coal or gas fired generators finally begins to restore some energy sanity into the imbecilic rabidly green cult ass holes who so stupidly brought us as a nation to this completely stupid and completely undeserved and unnecessary situation.

      40

  • #
    pat

    read all…lots of detail:

    20 Mar: Forbes: Climate-Driven Coal Closures Harm Investors, Workers And Ratepayers
    by H. Sterling Burnett
    (Dr. Burnett is a research fellow on energy and the environment at The Heartland Institute)
    Coal is the fuel that powered the Industrial Revolution. Trains, steel production, electric power and more were powered by King Coal, which ruled the energy roost from the mid-19th century through the late-20th century.
    Coal’s virtue is its abundance—we have a 200-400-year supply of coal beneath U.S. soil—and its reliability…

    To avert blackouts and unnecessary job losses and to better ensure affordable electricity, Trump and state officials must act quickly to halt or reverse regulations targeting coal power, which were crafted as part of a futile effort to fight climate change and lower mercury and ozone emissions—regulations that will do little, if anything, to protect people…

    Ultimately, Congress must join the fray. I recommend the creation of a simple, two-sentence law that would do what Congress should have done more than a decade ago: “Carbon dioxide, a naturally occurring, beneficial trace gas, not being toxic to humans or harmful to the environment at any foreseeable levels, is a not pollutant. Accordingly, no agency or department of the U.S. government is authorized to regulate, place limits on or tax carbon-dioxide emissions, directly or indirectly, unless and until the Congress of the United States expressly directs specific agencies or departments to impose such regulations and taxes.”
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2017/03/20/climate-driven-coal-closures-harm-investors-workers-and-ratepayers/#1241524853fb

    20 Mar: TheNewAmerican: Willam F. Jasper: Top Climate Alarm “Scientist”: Get Rid of Cars, Coal, Steel — or It’s the End of the World
    Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber (shown) wants to take us back to the Stone Age — literally. In a March 15 interview with the German newspaper Deutsche Welle, the German physicist declared that global warming is so serious that not only must we all give up the use of coal and our internal combustion vehicles in the next 13 years, but we must also ditch concrete and steel — for “wood, clay and stone.” If we don’t do this, along with other drastic measures, we are headed toward planetary warming of “4, 5, 6 or even 12 degrees,” he claims. This would bring, he insists, “the end of the world as we know it.”…

    Asked by Deutsche Welle where we stand now with regard to “the world’s carbon budget,” Schellnhuber responded: “It’s quite mind-boggling — for example, by 2030, we have to phase out the combustion engine. And we have to completely phase out the use of coal for producing power. By 2040 we will probably have to replace concrete and steel for construction by wood, clay and stone.”
    “Germany actually has the more ambitious goal — here within the European Union — a 40 percent reduction by 2020,” he says, in praise of his homeland’s policies. But then he admits: “It looks fairly bleak actually, with the current policies in place we will not even meet our own target. Something fairly disruptive needs to happen, like closing down some of the operating coal-fired power stations.”…

    Before you write this off as just another delusional rant from your garden variety greenie suffering from CDS (Climate Derangement Syndrome), consider this: Schellnhuber is a top climate alarmist for Germany, the United Nations, the European Union, and the Vatican…READ ON
    https://www.thenewamerican.com/tech/environment/item/25630-top-climate-alarm-scientist-get-rid-of-cars-coal-steel-or-its-end-of-the-world

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      rapscallion

      “Germany, the United Nations, the European Union, and the Vatican”

      And there, neatly encapsulated, lies the sources of virtually all of Europe’s problems, and coincidentally all of Britain’s enemies.

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    Bryn

    “Up to around the 1980s, most electricity and gas markets in Australia were based at state level, and were weakly linked. However, energy market reform began to gather force internationally in the 1980s, and was given impetus in Australia in the 1990s through the implementation of
    competition policy. Australian governments engaged in a major reform program, culminating in the formation of the National Electricity Market (NEM) which commenced operation on 13
    December 1998.”

    https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/researchpapers/Documents/energy-futures-for-nsw/FINAL%20VERSION%20Energy%20Futures.pdf

    I would suggest it was a question of an improved market not requiring new capacity. I recall (when Bob Carr was premier) there was talk of NSW having surplus capacity and no need for new constructions.

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    Robert Rosicka

    I weep for our glorious state , once the garden state now Dumbfukistan !

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    Egor the One

    Load Shedding ?……Another idiotic term invented by the renewable(intermittent) racketeers and CAGW ratbags , the real meaning being ‘Black Outs’ !

    Its Despot Dan and his corrupt ALP/Greens government that should be decommissioned not Hazelwood.

    Anybody with half a brain would would be [SNIP "closing"] the Windmills, not the power stations.

    So in 3 days Victoria will lose 22% of its power and just prior to heating demands of Winter, just 2 months away. Brilliantly Stupid !

    May as well throw SA’s extension lead back over the fence as there will be no spare power for Windmill Weatherill….another dud labor / Greens corrupted government that urgently needs [snip...to be voted out].

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    Peter C

    What is to be done?

    I will write (email) again to our Premier Daniel Andrews and also our Energy Minister (Lily D’Ambrosio) and also federal couterparts, Malcolm Turnbull and Josh Friedenberg, with an appeal to keep Hazelwood operating

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      Peter C

      I will also reference this post and all the comments

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        Robber

        And the responses to the Finkel inquiry:
        BHP Billiton The need for change is urgent. Increasing energy prices and supply disruptions hinder the competitiveness of Australian businesses and threaten future investment (particularly given the global mobility of capital in the manufacturing and resources sectors). The first priority should be stabilising the market in South Australia to manage the high levels of intermittent generation within the state portion of the NEM.
        Business SA In August 2016, prior to the State-wide blackout which cost South Australian business approximately $450 million, a coalition of representative organisations led by Business SA called for an independent review of the electricity market’s transition to low carbon; primarily driven by our distress about the impact of high wholesale electricity prices on the community and economy, and concerns over predicted reliability shortfalls should South Australia be unable to access sufficient baseload generation. Particular attention must be given to small to medium sized energy intensive businesses (in South Australia alone, forming the vast majority of 5,500 ‘large market’ customers) which and have experienced a doubling or more of wholesale energy costs when re-contracting since mid-2015. This follows several years of substantial price increases, primarily on the back of rising network and renewable subsidy costs.
        CSR: This review must examine ways and means to lower electricity prices, not contain or minimise increases.
        Energy Users Association: Progressively over the last 10 years Australia has given up its comparative advantage in competitively priced, highly reliable energy which has underpinned significant industrial development and employment for many decades. If allowed to continue on this trajectory this comparative advantage will be permanently lost and along with it, a majority of energy intensive industry including many industrial, food processing and manufacturing industries.
        Jemena: nationally consistent, technology neutral energy and climate policy design to harness the most diverse range of market solutions and innovations at an efficient cost and provide greater certainty for investors and market participants, including consumers.
        Minerals Council: The draft report does not address the security and affordability of Australia’s energy mix or the critical importance of technology neutral policy settings…
        National Farmers: The National Electricity Market is broken and needs to be fixed. Both reliability and affordability are key for agricultural producers – wholesale price spikes and outages can destroy annual returns for some farmers in the space of a few hours.
        Origin: Gas fired generation is often the marginal source of supply in the NEM, particularly at periods of high demand, and as such, gas market efficiency is crucial. State governments should reconsider the current restrictions on gas market development particularly where there is no sound environmental rationale for these to be in place.
        Rio Tinto: It is imperative that near term changes do not increase the cost of electricity. It should not be looking to trade-exposed industries to pay subsidies to renewable generators.
        SACOSS: As you aware, SA consumers are at their wits end with paying very high electricity charges.
        Tomago Aluminium: If the trend of rising electricity prices continues, electricity will no longer be affordable for TAC.
        Australia will become a basket case (banana republic?) if politicians don’t act NOW. DO they have any sane advisors?

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          Allen Ford

          Australia will become a basket case (banana republic?) if politicians don’t act NOW. DO they have any sane advisors?

          Sane advisors are only of use to sane listeners!

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      • #
        Peter C

        Dear Prime Minister,

        If Hazelwood Power Station closes it will trigger a crisis in electricity supply that may go beyond Victoria. Please do not allow that to happen.

        The experiment with wind and solar power has clearly failed and South Australians are paying the price for electing Jay Wetherill and his government. Victoria must not follow that path and make the same mistake.

        Hazelwood is still working and working well. It is supplying 20% of the baseload power for Victoria and helping to supply South Australia. It must be kept going.

        The economic problems of Hazelwood are a direct consequence of the renewable energy tax. The tax is disastrous for Australia. The tax must be repealed. But in the meantime please find a way to keep this plant operating. It is within your power to do so

        http://joannenova.com.au/2017/03/hazelwood-countdown-53-years-old-and-making-more-electricity-than-australias-entire-wind-industry/#comments

        Yours Sincerely
        Peter C

        Messsage also sent to Lily D’Ambosio (Vic Energy Minister, Damiel Andrews (Vic Premier), Josh Frydenberg (Fed Energy Minister) and Jenni Macklin (my Local Member)

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    Mikky

    A very sad event, and further proof that the notion that the Free Market will keep the lights on is false, only maintained till now thanks to the over-capacity that existed before things went private. The situation is similar in the UK. The theory is that closures will drive up prices, which will give “signals” to investors to build new plant.

    Investors will only build new plant if the market is growing and if there is no risk of regulatory interference and feel-good taxes, there is no chance of a return to those days. The blind attachment to the Free Market is getting in the way of what is the obvious solution, a public infrastructure model in which systems engineers plan the system, and companies bid to build and operate (but not own) power stations.

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      Peter C

      Incorrect Mikky,
      The Free Market would not have got us to here. It is Political interference in the market, via Carbon Taxes (fed by fear mongering about an unproven and entirely incorrect Theory about Co2 and Global Warming) which has brought us to this place.

      You seem confused about this. You say:

      Investors will only build new plant if the market is growing and if there is no risk of regulatory interference and feel-good taxes, there is no chance of a return to those days.

      That is not a Free Market! Even your solution is a politically constrained system;

      The blind attachment to the Free Market is getting in the way of what is the obvious solution, a public infrastructure model in which systems engineers plan the system, and companies bid to build and operate (but not own) power stations.

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        Mikky

        I agree with everything you say, the Free Market did not cause the problem, but the Free Market is now dead for electricity, hankering after its return is futile and a distraction from what needs to be done.

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      Robert Rosicka

      Actually Mikky that’s exactly the way it was when owned by the govt , as one power station was commissioned the next one was being drawn up and planned .
      This however ended when the SEC was privatised , nothing against the privatisation , but if the govt of the day had of stipulated an onus on future planning and new plants being built every X years it would of helped .
      As for the massive 300% increase that Andrews slapped on coal it just drives the Ret screwdriver deeper and twists as it goes in .

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      Geoff Sherrington

      Mikky,
      The optimum structure has not been seen because it has not been allowed to happen.
      That best structure is free enterprise, with emphasis on free. Bureaucracy has not allowed free enterprise to operate without crippling regulations that make it free enterprise in name only.
      Specifically, schemes like the RET that enforce a preference for one energy type over another are simply stupid exercises in distortion of free markets. Private enterprise has not had a chance to demonstrate its superiority because of myriad regulations like RET.
      I can recall immediate post WWII times when the power generators, mainly coal based, just powered on without fuss, apart from deliberate interference from special interest groups like unions in particular. We had very low real electricity costs and maybe the best standard of living in the world. Then green zealots started wrecking the bliss. Then, like now, most of them were intellectually impaired malcontents whose energy should have been directed into ways to eliminate each others’ influence.
      What a mess we have now.
      Geoff

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    As one of the Undead, I protest the soaring sales of (Chinese) diesel generators to the Green Zombies – and now they want giant batteries from Elon the Musik Man.

    Don’t the Zombies have graves to go to?

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    Kevin Hearle

    Jo love your sight but the type face is to small and when you try to increase it the formating to page size won’t work
    is it possible to fix it so that it works like WUWT ?

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    Chris in Hervey Bay

    C’mon Guys, get a grip. All of us here, and have been here for years, and on WUWT and other sceptic sites, have known this train was coming down the track.
    How many times have we said the global warming, climate change, was a scam, a method that the Gobalists, NWO, were using this to ‘de-industrialize’ the west.
    How many times did Tony dare the power plants to pull the plug.

    Well, now it is here !

    And if you really think the Hazelwood plant will be left standing, you would be mistaken. Then tell me why the Victorian government has allocated $300 odd million to ‘re-habiltate’ the site ?

    And don’t forget, it will take at least 2 years to put up a OCGT, or 4 years to go for a CCGT and about 10 years for a new coal fired plant and get them connected to the grid. Building is one thing, commissioning is another.

    There is no way the New World Order operatives are going to change course now while they are so close to the end game.

    Why do you think there is all this strife in the United States, I can guarantee you it is not because President Trump is a bad guy, no, it is because he has thrown a spanner in the works and sand in the gear box, so he has to go, one way or another.

    The USA is close to another civil war, and I don’t think it is too far off for us if the lights aren’t kept on with cheap, plentiful electricity.

    I fear it is too late, the country has to crash and burn and maybe the next generation of Australians can re-build this wonderful (was) country.

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      Nighthawk the Elder

      Hate to break it to you Chris, but the Victorian Government has not allocated a single cent to rehabilitate the site. All rehab is being funded by the owners, Engie. In fact, the Vic government continues to find creative way to extract more money from the owners in the dying days of Hazelwood, including new rehabilitation bonds.

      Whatever money you may have heard about, are taxpayer funded kickbacks to local union cronies, bureaucrats and associated spivs. Still, the local towns will get a new sports centre that all the newly unemployed can stare at from the sidelines.

      With all the talk of building new power plants, the most obvious location was the Hazelwood site itself. It is already correctly zoned and much of the infrastructure is already in place. It was possible to progressively remove old units and have built new, modern units in their place. So why didn’t this happen? Mostly due to regulatory overreach by labor/green zealots that just makes this kind of development ridiculously onerous. Much easier to invest in other countries and get your return. I’ve mentioned on other forums before, if you want an example of how these zealots used lawfare to destroy a proposed coal based power project that would have used new technology, look up what happened to HRL’s proposed duel gas project. Coal is evil and must be destroyed, is their mantra.

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        Chris in Hervey Bay

        Well Nighthawk, I don’t really care where the money is coming from, but be sure ‘rehabilitate’ the site means just that, no more power plant, just parks and gardens with a lake, or maybe a new football field.

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  • #
    Stephen Richards

    It’s what good engineers do.

    Scammers don’t

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    Bitter&Twisted

    Will the last person to leave Australia, please switch the lights off?

    Whoops, my bad. They are already off.

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    Lionell Griffith

    There is a fundamental principle of human action: when you see something that is absurd, don’t question the absurdity. Look for the consequences of that absurdity. When found, you will have discovered the purpose for the absurdity. This is true even if there are claims of noble causes and many words to the contrary.

    1. The current situation, with respect to power generation, has to improve to be merely absurd.
    2. A modern technological society that runs on abundant, reliable, and economic power generation cannot function without it.
    3. The source of abundant, reliable, and economic power generation is being priced out of existence and dismantled by government policy and action.
    4. Thus, the purpose of the current absurdity is to abolish modern technological society

    It is not about saving the planet or aggrandizing wealth and control. It is about the destruction of the modern highly productive technological society that gives wealth its value. If nothing can be produced, there is nothing for money to buy. If there is nothing to buy, there is nothing left to sustain production. Without production, life itself cannot be sustained. Without life, there is nothing to control.

    Hence: They do not want to live. They want you to die.

    QED!

    Don’t go quietly into that very long, very dark, and very cold night.

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    • #
      Greg Cavanagh

      I think you’re half right.

      If their aim was to destroy society, society simply ups stumps and moves to Queensland, or New Zealand, or Christmas Island. The destruction happens, but the people have moved on. You end up with a failed state but not a failed society.

      They have in fact stated their purpose. “Government control of power generation and distribution”.
      I don’t know why they want this, but that’s what the government is forcing upon the state.

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      • #
        Lionell Griffith

        They would be successful with achieving their purpose only if the people stood by and allowed it to happen. If the people did as you say, it would be an example of NOT going quietly into that very long, very dark, and very cold night.

        It is by the consequences of their repeated policies in action that we know their purpose. Their noble causes and words to the contrary are an irrelevant smokescreen to hide the truth from the people and, especially, from themselves.

        Their purpose is still the same: “They do not want to live. They want you to die.”

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      Allen Ford

      It’s more fundamental that that, Lionel. They have been systematically destroying the intellectual capital that created the technological society in the first place.

      Once gone, it will take centuries to recreate, if ever.

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    Robert Rosicka

    So the plants going to close , I think that’s a foregone conclusion the biggest question for me ( apart from the impending blackouts) is how quick will the Dynamite be pulled out to vandalise the plant so it’s permanently inoperable .
    If our glorious leader is on form I’m guessing very quick .

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    toorightmate

    I eagerly await the next time SA needs the VicLink and it ain’t available AND THEN Vic needs additional power and it ain’t available.
    My only fear is that some life or lives may be lost.

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      David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

      G!day,
      Spare a thort for Canberra. I think they’ve announced a plan(?) to go100% renewable, based on windpower, and I think that’s from SA? I’ve assumed that they get backup from Vic…
      Perhaps our federal pollies might notice??
      Cheers,
      Dave B

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        • #
          PeterPetrum

          ” Since then, it has held two wind auctions and signed contracts with four companies to buy energy from wind farms in South Australia, Victoria and NSW.”

          What puzzles me. When they are getting power from the grid, how do they kno they are only getting “wind farm” power. What a farce, what double speak, what sheer nonsense.

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            Ah PeterPetrum, got it in one: (my bolding here)

            When they are getting power from the grid, how do they know they are only getting “wind farm” power. What a farce, what double speak, what sheer nonsense.

            The ACT is connected to the grid like everyone is.

            The grid is supplied by wind to the tune of only 5%.

            It’s a clever use of semantics to say that they are 100% renewable, otherwise they would need long extension cords to only be supplied by the plants they have invested in.

            They get all their power from the grid.

            Tony.

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            • #
              Nick Perrin

              PeterPetrum and TonyfromOz. Perhaps to manage the all ‘renewable power only’ contacts the customer must have a smart meter, all such contracts are counted and the renewables generation at the time ‘shared out’ to those contracts. Now here I am assuming that the the power available would sometimes be less than the contracts demand so some form of limitation of supply would be required, hence the smart meter. I am sure my broadband service is throttled to match both my contract and the other demands on the service.

              Nick.

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              • #
                Dave

                Rubbish!

                Nick, do you absolutely believe this?

                So as soon as ACT uses all the WIND energy
                Do you get cut off?

                Maybe you should be charged more once renewables have been supplied?

                Unbelievable!

                20

              • #
                Nick Perrin

                To moderator/anyone
                I made a very rare comment at 32.1.1.1.1 in the Hazelwood countdown thread which came up with a red -’reply’ button.
                I received a follow up comment from ‘Dave’:-
                -=-=-=-=
                March 22, 2017 at 7:23 pm
                Rubbish!

                Nick, do you absolutely believe this?

                So as soon as ACT uses all the WIND energy
                Do you get cut off?

                Maybe you should be charged more once renewables have been supplied?

                Unbelievable!
                -=-=-=-=

                Three points I note.
                1 There is no ‘reply’ button so I cannot respond.
                and
                2 There is no reference to any part of my comment he is taking exception to.
                and
                3 I also note my comment got 1 green thumb and 2 red! where as his critique got 2 green and zero red.

                I do not understand this behaviour.
                Please will a moderator /anyone who cares to enlighten me about what is going on here and why my comment shows up in a different way to Dave’s.

                Thanks,

                Nick.

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            Robert Rosicka

            Peter it’s actually quite simple how they sort the power out ,
            Brown volts from coal are separated by a brown variable influx capacitor .
            Green volts from wind and solar use the same system but just use a green filter .
            The watermelons have thought of everything .

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            Raven

            It’s a clever use of semantics to say that they are 100% renewable . .

            I reckon we dob them in to the ACCC for misleading advertising.
            It’s one thing when a retailer or manufacturer does it, but quite another when a State Government does it.

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    TdeF

    It is churlish for people to talk of Hazelwood as old. Malcolm Turnbull is 63 this year. Maybe his boiler has gone out?
    In stark contrast, we really need Hazelwood and like Turnbull and the Sydney Harbour Bridge, it has been maintained. This whole argument that Hazelwood is old and the ‘most polluting’ power station is nonsense. It only outputs CO2 and H2O and frankly, the H2O is by
    far the greater pollution, the greater greenhouse gas, except claiming water was pollution would be nonsense?

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      harold b.

      @TdeF, Here in Waukegan, Illinois we have a very clean running 680MWcoal fired generating station that is 85 years old. The plant just added additional scrubbing equipment. You’d swear the plant was not in operation as there is no visual sign of emissions come from the smoke stacks. Yet the idiots from Sierra Club along with some misguided locals continue their periodic protests and community forums. I have begun, so far, a one man counter campaign to point out their lies. Hoping to build some local support of our my own in the future. These people are dangerous to all life on earth.

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      • #
        TdeF

        and all life on earth is made from CO2 and H2O, so life is pollution. Lies? Simple, amazing ignorance. They are wasting their CO2.

        Personally I blame photosynthesis for putting CO2 and H2O together in the first place as hydrated CO2, carbohydrate. Trees and grasses are the problem and should be banned along with Carbon. Only rocks should live, but it is the Sierra club.

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        Griffo

        Harold ,I would chip in to buy you a ticket to Australia to share your experience,keep up the good work.

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        KinkyKeith

        Best of good fortune in changing a few minds.

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      • #

        Speaking of Sierra…

        “…between 2007 and 2010 the Sierra Club accepted over $25 million in donations from the gas industry, mostly from Aubrey McClendon, CEO of Chesapeake Energy — one of the biggest gas drilling companies in the U.S. and a firm heavily involved in fracking—to help fund the Club’s Beyond Coal campaign.” – TIME

        The War on Coal is, among other things, a war for Big Oil. Big Oil is hoping that the green sharks will eat him last. In fact, without coal a hell of a lot more diesel and gas will be needed. It would be terrible luck if the oil and gas prices, currently in the toilet, took a big jump right after the War on Coal is won. My, that would be nasty. We’d all be like Athens-on-Torrens then.

        Drill, baby, drill.

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    David Maddison

    Just curious Tony, what are the specific technical reasons why Hazelwood might only be producing 86% of its nameplate?

    Also, as I have said before windmills should not be allowed to be described in terms of their nameplate capacity since they typically only run st 30% of that. An honest way to describe a “1MW” windmill is “300kW – intermittent”.

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    • #

      In the same year that Hazelwood came on line, Porsche released its 356C, the forerunner to what became the 911.

      When that Porsche came out it was state of the art.

      If you bought one of them new, and still had it today, there is no way known it would be making the same power as it did then.

      Same with Hazelwood.

      Those generators get old, the permanent magnets enhanced by electromagnetics as well in the rotors get that little bit weaker, hence not inducing as much into the stators to generate that maximum power of 200MW.

      It just gets old.

      Tony.

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        Rod Stuart

        Tony
        There is another possible reason, apart from deterioration of nozzle guide vanes, rotor buckets, and losses in the steam headers due to roughness, or for that matter blocked boiler tubes.
        It seems that the “capacity factor” you are computing comes simply from the electricity produced over a period of time, relative to that which could have been produced over the same period had the machine been running at its rated capacity.
        If this is the case, it doesn’t take into consideration the NON-DISPTACHED load over that same period.
        Because all of the electricity producers operate on a tilted playing field, it is the wind producers that are allowed to produce all of which they are capable. This necessarily means that during those periods of yellow in your wind production graph above, there are other bidders in the system that are not dispatched by AEMO. That of course affects the capacity factor, unless it is computed by comparing a machines CAPABLE output with its capacity as determined during commissioning.
        This might or might not explain in part the difference queried by David Maddison.

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          Rick Will

          That is the reason the coal generators are going broke. There are high costs keeping plant available but not producing electricity. Without compensation for being available without income the economic solution is to shut down permanently.

          I expect serious issues by mid year on a cold bleak day in June when sun does not shine and wind does not blow.

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  • #
    David Maddison

    I’m in the USA now enjoying cheap, plentiful energy. Even Obama, despite his best effforts, couldn’t completely destroy that.

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    David Maddison

    I’m in the USA now enjoying cheap, plentiful energy. Even Obama, despite his best effforts, couldn’t completely destroy that.

    32

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      James

      10.5 cents per kWH including delivery and various fees for me last month, in Northern NY. How much did you have to pay?

      40

      • #
        GD

        How much did you have to pay?

        Victoria, Australia – 26.5 cents USD 34.5 cents AUD

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        • #
          Egor the One

          In SA it’s about 50 cents per KWH…..In China, about 8 cents per KWH, where much of AUS coal goes to. The lunacy is obvious. Where do the imbeciles that control this get their pretend business degrees from? Such universities handing out such pretend degrees should be defunded.

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    KinkyKeith

    It seems very likely that this closure of a reliable power generator could be a very significant moment in Australia’s political approach to all things Climate Change.

    A general overview of recent posts by Tony suggests that the grid will be in serious trouble without the supply and stability provided by Hazel.

    There is little doubt that “renewables” in the grid provide almost no useable power in excess of what they consume as essential set up costs and further, we would be much better off without them, as they are at the moment.

    The political problem faced is that the public is fed distorted images of reality through the media. An example of this was the weekend article by noted columnist Alan K where the problem was defined in terms of a shortage of gas? To confuse the readers further, he quoted Ross Garnaut as saying that renewables were now at the same cost level as coal fired power.

    All, no doubt, written with a straight face.

    What must be done is to somehow convey a picture of impending doom to the public so that when the lights go out they will have been forewarned.

    They might get angry enough to make Hazel our Trump moment.

    Or maybe enough businesses will collapse or relocate overseas to allow the reduced supply to cope.

    Does anybody in government care?

    KK

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      David Maddison

      Does anybody in government care?

      My local MP, a Liberal “Shadow Minister for Energy and Resources, Shadow Minister for Innovation, and Shadow Minister for Renewables” doesn’t even bother to read or answer emails or his staff don’t pass them on to him.

      The answer: nobody cares, not even the opposition.

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      • #
        Rick Will

        I got a reply from Malcolm Roberts staffer on my review of the CSIRO Roadmap.

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          PeterPetrum

          Ah, but he’s not the Gubbermnt. And he actually understands the issues. I am not sure if there is anyone in either the government or opposition who actually, deeply, understands the issues. And that includes our hopeless Chief Scientist.

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      To confuse the readers further, he quoted Ross Garnaut as saying that renewables were now at the same cost level as coal fired power.

      Have you ever noticed that when it comes to engineering, journalists seem to get all their information from ….. economists!

      Baffles me completely.

      Tony.

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        Eddie

        Because ‘cost levels’ are such a tenuous thing ? Politicians can spin them up to demand, but only an Economist can lend the sciencey credibility to any old sh!t without getting their hands dirty.

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        Gordon

        You are not the only one! Where do the greenies get their info from?
        Supposedly the trains in Holland are run only from wind power and Denmark claims they now get ALL their power from wind! We certainly cannot forget Elon Musk is going to solve Australia`s power problem with batteries!!! Who needs economics or engineering:)

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    rk

    UNREPORTED PROBLEMS WITH WIND TURBINES.

    Wind turbines around the world have failure rates on gear boxes, blades and towers averaging every 4/5 years. There have been a number of studies by various groups including the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Colorado and the failures occur across all types and manufacturers. For many years now the German Insurance Industry has mandated gear box replacements at 5 years – see
    http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/wuthering-heights-the-dangers-of-wind-power-a-500902.html

    Any of the larger MW Turbines would require about $650,000 for a new gear box and it has been reported that failure statistics on blades are ten times higher than reported. Nothing can prevent severe damage or total destruction when a line of severe storms strike a wind farm. Designers don’t realize that when the winds exceed 55 m/sec and the blades have to be feathered, that does not prevent damage to the gear box and bearings.

    The blades may be sitting there horizontal to what is perceived to be the airflow but in severe thunderstorms with down bursts, this could drive all blades straight down at once and downbursts are know to exceed over 150 m.p.h. in powerful storm fronts. There was something like 26 accidents in the USA in the 1970s/1980s with jets taking off and landing under thunderstorms that could not out climb these downbursts. The maintenance issues of wind turbines is under reported everywhere because it is a scam the wind turbine manufacturers want to keep going with their subsidies.

    Lightning and large hail, over temping, out of balance issues are all further problems that a main stream thermal power generator is not exposed to. South Australia has not seen really big heat thunderstorms for many years but when they return there will be many turbines not turning. I am talking here of storms with tops above 40,000′

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    pat

    21 Mar: BBC: ‘Extreme and unusual’ climate trends continue after record 2016
    By Matt McGrath
    In the atmosphere, the seas and around the poles, climate change is reaching disturbing new levels across the Earth.
    That’s according to a detailed global analysis (LINK) from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)…
    The WMO’s State of the Global Climate 2016 report builds on this research with information from 80 national weather services to provide a deeper and more complete picture of the year’s climate data…
    In the face of all this information, climate researchers around the world are IRKED by the attitude of the Trump government in Washington…

    “The WMO’s statement on the 2016 climate leaves no room for doubt. The much-hyped warming hiatus is over – and the ‘missing’ heat energy didn’t go missing at all. Instead, that heat went into the ocean, and we got much of it back again last year,” said Dr Phil Williamson, from the University of East Anglia.
    “Human-driven climate change is now an empirically verifiable fact, combining year-to-year variability with the consequences of our release of extra greenhouse gases. Those who dispute that link are not sceptics, but anti-science deniers.”
    http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-39329304

    out of approx. 40 comments at time of posting, plenty of sceptics.

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    • #
      JpDp

      Was 2016 the hottest year, by a significant margin according to both raw data and satellite data?
      No.

      Statistically can 1 ElNinio year of heat, prove that a 20 year trend has been broken? Who knows what’s going to happen over the next 5 years?
      I can tell you who doesnt – the IPCC – their 20 year history of predictions havent been accurate.

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    Robert Rosicka

    To win govt in Victoria these days you must keep the inner city green folk happy , the Libs are aware of it which is why they went along with the ban on gas extraction .
    So if you can’t vote lab or lib and a vote for greens is worse that leaves independents and your not going to get much support from individuals without a polarising Trump like figure .

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    pat

    21 Mar: Reuters: EUROPE POWER-German spot lifted by fall in wind power output
    European prompt power prices for day-ahead delivery diverged on Tuesday as a sharp fall in wind power production in Germany lifted the spot contract…
    Wind power production from German wind turbines is expected to tumble by over 13 gigawatts (GW) day-on-day to 4.8 GW on Wednesday, according to Thomson Reuters data…
    Solar power output will fall by 150 megawatts (MW), the data showed…
    German electricity consumption will rise marginally by 50 megawatts on Wednesday to 74.4 GW with average temperatures forecast to fall by 2.5 degrees Celsius…
    http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFL5N1GY3C7

    20 Mar: US News & World Report: AP: Jeffrey Collins: Deep South Freeze Means Fewer Blueberries and Peaches
    Last week’s deep freeze in the Southeast appears to have nearly wiped out Georgia’s blueberries and South Carolina’s peaches.
    In South Carolina, 85 percent of the state’s peach crop is gone while the small pink blooms remain on the trees, according to the South Carolina Department of Agriculture.
    Up to 80 percent of south Georgia’s blueberry crop is gone, Georgia Agriculture Commissioner Gary Black said after touring the state late last week…
    Between the two states, crop losses from the freeze could approach $1 billion, officials said.
    Temperatures dipped into the 20s both Wednesday and Thursday morning…
    Both States reported some damage to strawberries…
    Officials said it is the most damaging freeze for the Southeast since the 2007 Easter freeze in early April where a similar cold snap destroyed 90 percent of South Carolina’s peaches and caused closed to $1 billion in crop damage across the region.
    https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/georgia/articles/2017-03-20/deep-south-freeze-means-fewer-blueberries-and-peaches

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    pat

    17 Mar: AmericanSpectator: Special Report: Confessions of a Climate Change ‘Denier’
    by W. Smith
    To Joe the True Believer from Tom the Denier
    A few days ago I had a conversation with a very smart university professor of history and somehow the climate change subject came up. Almost instantly he responded to my thoughts by saying: “You must be one of those deniers who rejects the science consensus.”
    This is the new form of intellectual bullying and it’s intentionally designed is to stop the conversation not advance it. In the academies it is a technique to close off scientific inquiry…READ ON
    https://spectator.org/confessions-of-a-climate-change-denier/

    21 Mar: AFR: Laura Tingle: Arthur Sinodinos likens climate change denial to anti-vaxxers, pushes for more science
    Industry Minister Arthur Sinodinos has likened denying the threat of climate change to the anti-vaccination lobby, saying the only credible response to these positions is “scientific fact” and that his responsibility is to promote the government’s commitment to science.
    In a speech at the National Press Club on Wednesday, Senator Sinodinos will argue governments cannot turn back the global tide of change and people have to accept that disruption is the new constant, amid the growing waves of protection around the world that seek to stop such change…
    “Increasingly, there has emerged a lack of respect for the scientific method in some quarters,” notes prepared for his speech say.

    Selective use of facts
    “We see the conclusions of experts being cast aside, in favour of ideological positions and selective use of facts.
    “Denying the threat of climate change is a well-worn example…
    “The outcome of the US presidential election and the Brexit vote partly reflect discomfort with the economic impacts of globalisation, and a yearning for more protectionist measures,” he will say…
    http://www.afr.com/news/politics/arthur-sinodinos-likens-climate-change-denial-to-antivaxxers-pushes-for-more-science-20170321-gv34sm

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    pat

    comment which includes link to Laura Tingle’s “Arthur Sinodinos likens climate change denial to anti-vaxxers, pushes for more science” piece is in moderation:

    22 Mar: Australian: Kylie Walker: Scientists must shine light on truth
    (Kylie Walker is chief executive of Science & Technology Australia)
    But in a post-truth world, how do we ensure that critical thinking is applied in decision-making, both personal and political? That legislation and policy is based on fact and evidence rather than hunch and conjecture?
    How do we make certain that scientific findings and analysis are incorporated and applied into policy?…

    The only way is for those in science, technology, engineering and mathematics to become vocal and proactive advocates for their sector. Scientists and technologists must see themselves not only as experts in their field but also as educators and ambassadors…
    The planet is heading towards a crisis that can be resolved by science. It’s arguably more important than ever that scientists and technologists step outside the comfort zone and build relationships with the media, investors and political leaders…
    We need to tell the stories of science and technology — how it works, what it can achieve, and how it can and should be supported to resolve the species-shaking challenges of our time: food and water security, climate change, population-scale health challenges, extreme weather events…

    Scientists and technologists must resist their natural tendency to ***humility, and actively sort the nuggets of truth from the pan of silty half-truth.
    And they must actively work to influence public debate by pushing evidence-based argument into the media and into the political discourse…
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/higher-education/scientists-must-shine-light-on-truth/news-story/db6396c155f7b7285b3a3fc30ee6476f

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    • #
      David Maddison

      We need to tell the stories of science and technology — how it works, what it can achieve,

      All standard stuff which used to be taught in schools until they and their teachers were deliberately dumbed down.

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        OriginalSteve

        Correct, which is why my standard comment to anyone who goes a bit wild eyed at the idea that I might rebel agisnt “97% consensus” is that quite simply that CAGW cant be actually proven scientifically, whih is factually correct.

        If you keep away from any emotive or flimsy straw man arguments and the expected usual appeal to authroity of NASA, NOAA etc, and stick to the facts, they cant stand. I alsways ask to show the figures and facts. I always ask about the 20 year pause, always ask for proof. Never been bettered yet. But you do have to doggedly stand your ground.

        TRying to link scientists with other things is trying to smear people without any proof.

        Just ask for the facts that CAGW is real….they back off every time like a small yappy dog that runs up and down the “fence” of bogus climate “science” safely behind it….until you get to the “open gate” of real science…. uh oh….

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          Matty

          ” … like a small yappy dog that runs up and down the “fence” of bogus climate “science” ”
          :-)

          20

        • #
          Raven

          I like to ask them for the average temperature in Darwin for March 1770 when Captain Cook sailed past.

          Something like that usually gets them thinking when I tell them Darwin didn’t exist for another hundred years. ;)

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    Asp

    The whole thought of the Hazelwood plant being sacrificed on the altar of ‘clean power’ pains me beyond belief. One would have thought that it was the ultimate ‘no brainer’ that the this was a very silly move indeed. More so with recent experiences by Victoria’s western neighbour.
    So how have we come to this? How has the world changed? Rather than the traditional polarizers of young-old, educated-unschooled, smart-challenged, private school-public school, we appear to have a completely new polarizer within our society.
    The only thing that I can think of, is that somehow, with our immense advances in technology, we have built our own tower of Babel. Being on the tail end of the baby-boomers, I can still remember what a thrill it was to watch television, in black and white, and not complain that there were only 4 channels. Progress gave us colour
    television, then a multitude of channels, whether by cable or internet, to the point that everyone of us now has complete choice in what version of the ‘truth’ we wish to consume. So no longer, due to a limited menu on our televised media, were we exposed to a healthy mixture of views across a broad political spectrum, but could now choose to feed on the particular brand of ‘truth’ that we favoured. So we now have those that feed on Brand X news, and those that feed on Brand Y, and call the other party’s news ‘fake news’. I think that this has played a role in the extreme polarization now evident not only here in Australia, but arguably throughout the Western world.
    The only other explanation I can think of, is that somehow, Yin got Yanged, but before I elaborate, I better quit, as I think the ice below me is getting rather thin.

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    Steve from New York

    Greetings from upstate New York! I very much enjoy this blog but fear it will be a victim of permanent load shedding when Hazelwood meets its untimely demise. It was nice “knowing” (almost) all of you. May the greens meet the fate they so richly deserve!

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    • #
      clive

      It may come to pass,that being a”Watermelon”(green on the outside and red in the middle)may be detrimental to ones well being when the $hit hits the fan.

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    John F. Hultquist

    Thoughts generated up in the #7 comment section:

    TonyfromOz and Nighthawk the Elder

    Can you folks comment on the problems of restarting a unit once it has gone “cold” – is that a proper term? {My home town had a glass bottle factory.}
    And, would the facility have planned to let the stockpile of coal go way low under the assumption it would not be needed?

    I assume this is a public company with managers and shareholders, and further assume the directors could not (or would not) consider ever restarting (or building a new unit) without a guarantee of long term profitability. This comes close to nationalizing the energy sector.

    Great post and informative comments, by the way.

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      Rod Stuart

      John
      A difficult question to answer without being intimately familiar with the asset, bu I’ll try. If I am way out in left field let me know. I do have some knowledge of Parsons 200 MW equipment of that vintage.
      Scenario 1:
      All eight machines are shut down progressively, and on 01 April they are all down and the boilers are all extinguished. The steam side is purged and pressured with nitrogen.
      If there is any chance they may be once more required, a program of preparing the machinery for long term storage would begin.
      If there is no point in this, the boilers will be permanently blown down, and the hydrogen bled from the alternators. Auxiliary systems will be shut down, and quite possibly oil removed from the lube oil systems. Only systems necessary for fire protection would remain.
      Ever since the first unit was commissioned in the 1960′s, maintenance periods have been at one year intervals. Components are carefully examined and assesed as to the extent of remianing life, and components not adequate for another year or two either replaced or rejuvenated. This operation takes about a month, and recommissioning after overhaul from three days to a week.
      In this scenario, blackouts in both SA and VIC are sufficiently frequent that Dan the Dick negotiates a program with the owners. I suggest that it would take three weeks to a month to perform all the necessary preventive maintenance and recommission the eight machines for another year or two of service.
      Scenario 2
      The plant is vacated shortly after April 1 and made safe to leave decommissioned, with no steps taken to preserve it for any future operation.
      By 01 April 2018, blackouts in SA and VIC are in fact accompanied by blackouts in NSW, QLD, and Tasmania as well. A lynch mob forms and dispatches with Msrs Weatherdill, Kostakanis, and Andrews, Mussolini style. The Commonwealth institutes martial law and demands that the owner recommission the entire plant for a king’s ransom.
      A year has past, so all of the mandatory inspections have not been accomplished, extensive under insulation corrosion makes most of the main steam system unfit for pressure service. A multitude of subsystems such as deaerators, and cooling system pumps and heat exchangers have seals that require replacement. I dare say that after a year, no doubt with extensive vandalism, corrosion, rotor sag, journal bearing babbit decay, boiler corrosion, etc. that it would not be feasible to get it running again, and if it were it would require at least six months of work around the clock to make it safe to go again.
      There are many issues to be overcome. Not the least of which is that the plant is not black start capable. So unless sufficient power is available from somewhere for the auxiliary systems, it would be necessary to lease portable equipment to do so.

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    oldbrew

    From The Australian:
    The looming crisis is much worse than I expected.
    Three state governments, Victoria NSW and South Australia, have vandalised our total energy system.

    http://www.thegwpf.com/australias-energy-crisis-worse-than-expected/

    75% risk of blackouts predicted.

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    David Maddison

    Part of the problem with the sheeple being unconcerned with the wholesale destruction of our energy grid is they have no idea whatsoever about the staggering size of power stations. They seem to think one coal fired station can be replaced with just a few windmills, not thousands of the wretched things. And that still doesn’t consider the necessity of some sort of storage to store the intermittently produced power. It used to be you could tour a power station in the Latrobe valley in VIC or parts of the Snowy Hydro Scheme (except you can tour a visitor centre, not an underground turbine hall). I wonder if this was all part of a plot to disconnect people from the reality of how large modern centralised generating plant is to make them more accepting of windmills?

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    • #
      OriginalSteve

      Once the local TAB goes down and beer isnt cold, the plebs will wake up fast enough…

      It has to affect them where it hurts beofre they will take notice.

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    TdeF

    The graph showing fossil fuel output vs wind output is even the more painful when you consider that the cost of the pitiful and random amount of windpower is tripling the cost of all fossil fuel power and crippling our society in the search for free power? Nothing free about it. As for wind power being competitive, it is not predictable, not on demand and so far from what is needed as to be laughable and all only possible if we triple the cost of what is actually powering the country?

    At the same time the State Government of South Australia, like Tasmania last year, is buying hundreds of diesel generators to prevent blackouts, mimicking what their own customers are being forced to do. Oh to be a diesel generator vendor in a Green windmill state! A licence to print money. Clearly teaching science is schools in Australia has been a wasted effort.

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    TdeF

    As for the economics of running Hazelwood flat out, it may be more to do with making money. While Daniel Andrews tripled the price of coal, but Hazelwood also announced an increase in price until closure. There may be some deal in place with Federal LGCs. If French owner Engie had a deal for the last few months where they were closing anyway and clients could perhaps duck on buying LGCs, the place would be very competitive without the 9c/kwhr carbon tax.

    While Tony thinks is it enthusiastic engineers wanting to show off, it may be some overdue profiteering on the eve of closure. Either way, forcing the closure of the largest, cheapest, clean power station because some strange ignorant people think CO2 is dirty is crazy and will cripple four states because the biggest buyer of Hazelwood power is actually NSW, not Tasmania or South Australia and NSW was on the verge of major blackouts last month.

    I suspect Engie will sit out the next round of blackouts while Andrews and Weatherill and Turnbull kiss their reelection chances goodbye. How long before Andrew starts buying diesel generators too? Amazingly Diesels are the new Green power supply.

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    • #
      TdeF

      Doesn’t anyone smell something fishy? After all, Hazelwood is being voluntarily shut down by the French owners because like their Pelican point which lost $15Million last year, the oppressive RET scheme means it cannot make a profit as was intended and the electricity is not saleable, but it is running flat out? If the electricity was unsaleable and you could not increase prices to cover cost, how do they increase prices and sell the even more expensive electricity and why would you run a loss making enterprise at full speed and make even higher losses? I doubt we have the whole story behind this closure. I can only presume there was a deal done but as the people paying both the state and Electricity bills, why should the public be told anything at all? Secret politicians business and our electricity prices are set by politicians. Any fantasy of a free and public market is just that.

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      • #
        keeffromlondon

        TdeF: Perhaps they are burning coal stock-piled at the site? It could be cheaper than moving it somewhere.

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      • #
        David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

        G’day TdeF,
        I,d assumed that they’d be using up all the coal they,d stockpiled. After all they paid the Vic Gov $300 extra per tonne of it. Might as well get some return, AND not let that mob of xxxs get their grubby hands on it.
        Cheers,
        Dave B

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      David Maddison

      Amazingly Diesels are the new Green power supply.

      Well, they can stop growing food crops and grow bio-diesel instead. People might starve but they wouldn’t be in the dark…

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    ARW

    great reading but rather depressing. Is there a summary paper anywhere that presents the rationale for closing the plant and how they intend to make up the immediate deficit of generating capacity?

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    • #
      David Maddison

      The plant is being closed because of the 9c per kWh carbon tax and the deliberate tripling of the price of coal.

      There is no plan to make up the deficit.

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    • #
      el gordo

      ARW

      Not really, faith is all encompassing.

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    David Maddison

    QUOTE FROM A FACEBOOK USER
    Energy entrepreneur Trevor St Baker describes the shutdown as “a disastrous act of national self-harm”, and has told the Finkel Review on energy security that the closure had doubled forward contract base-load wholesale prices in Victoria in six months, equivalent to an extra $1.8 billion a year cost burden to Victorian electricity consumers.

    http://www.afr.com/business/energy/electricity/engie-to-start-closing-down-hazelwood-power-station-this-week-20170314-guy33s

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      David Maddison

      Heh Red Thumb, why do you believe in the economic destruction of Australia?

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      TdeF

      As if Premier Daniel Andrews cares. This is a premier who paid $1.6Bn not to build a road we desperately need. His own committee on traffic then recommended the most effective way to relieve congestion was to build the road. He will just raise taxes. Our land tax just doubled last month and besides, he does not have to pay the increased electricity cost. His plan in tripling coal Royalties is to force the other Yallourn electricity producers out of business too. Really the fastest way to get 100% renewables is simply to shut everything else. I don’t know about Manuel’s odd theory of a tiny reptilian brain, but he may be right.

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      • #
        Robert Rosicka

        Is it true that Daniel Andrews has said that four out of every three voters aren’t good at maths ! So they won’t know what he’s up to .

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    • #
      Mark M

      Feb 6, 2017:

      Earlier today, Australia’s chief scientist, Alan Finkel, publicly compared US President Donald Trump to former Soviet leader Joseph Stalin.

      Science, he says “is literally under attack” in America.

      A two-minute Google search reveals they were emphatically repudiated 11 days ago by a Trump spokesperson who accused the Associated Press of mischaracterizing his remarks.

      In other words, Finkel has been ensnared by fake news.

      The chief scientist of Australia didn’t bother to double-check his facts before making an outrageously lurid public accusation.

      https://nofrakkingconsensus.com/2017/02/06/trump-stalin-fake-news/
      ~ ~ ~
      Media release: Strong response to National Electricity Market Review

      Australia’s Chief Scientist and Chair of the Review Panel, Dr Alan Finkel, acknowledged and thanked the many contributors.

      “The breadth and depth of these submissions is a mark of the community’s determination to help shape the future of our electricity sector,” Dr Finkel said.

      http://www.chiefscientist.gov.au/2017/03/media-release-strong-response-to-national-electricity-market-review/
      . . .
      Even sportsbet wouldn’t run a market on the outcome of that review.

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    Oliver K. Manuel

    Mankind lives in constant conflict with messages from:

    1. The survival instinct in the tiny reptilian core of the brain, and

    2. Logical, rational analysis from outer parts of the human brain.

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  • #

    We all need to keep our “lords and masters” (our
    elected officials) feet to the fire or we ordinary
    citizens will be living in the stone age.
    This is true for Oz as well as the USA and world
    wide.

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  • #
    Another Ian

    Others are noticing


    We Don’t Need No Stinking Giant Fans

    By Kate on March 21, 2017 1:25 PM | 11 Comments

    Anorexia Australia: Blackouts Are Coming”

    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/2017/03/we-dont-need-no-615.html

    And an O/T on reliability of news

    https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2017/03/21/aleppo-vs-mosul-bbc-vs-rt-and-a-mirror/

    40

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    nicholas tesdorf

    I wonder if it possible that the workers at Hazelwood Power Station will defy the government of Victoristan and keep the turbines running to continue to power the SA and Victorian Wind and Solar Deficit.

    40

  • #
    GrahamP

    Tony,

    Vales Point – both units running typo?? 11130 MW or 1130 MW

    30

  • #
    Rod Stuart

    Prediction:
    Apparently “CO2 emissions have stopped rising”.
    and
    This is the weakest solar cycle since 1755.
    Just watch for the alarmists to insist that this “proves” that CO2 and temperatures are related.

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    • #
      David Maddison

      They claim the lack of increase is due to increased use of renewables. I very much doubt any difference would be discernible since the anthropogenic proportion of CO2 is so low and even if we stopped burning fossil fuels there would be almost no difference.

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    jim west

    Possible minor correction to main post required.

    My copy of ESAA 2005 has Liddell listed as having 4 x 500MW units.

    10

  • #
    pat

    22 Mar: Australian: Robert Gottliebsen: Energy crisis risk? It’s criminal
    I have a shock for any politician, public servant or political advisor found by the courts to be misleading the public about the dangers of their power and gas policies — they can be jailed.
    Back in 1995 the parliament of the day passed legislation that they hoped would never be necessary against ministers of the crown. I have been alerted that in the 1995 Federal Criminal Code under Section 137.1 in Chapter 7 there is a section entitled ‘Good administration of government’.
    We have a situation in Australia where a group of politicians and their advisers are putting at risk the jobs of tens of thousands of Australians and vast losses in the community by their power and gas policies…READ ALL
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/opinion/robert-gottliebsen/energy-crisis-risk-its-criminal/news-story/f3e39a5001868b4c70f220ad9703da17

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    pat

    apologies if this has been posted already, but I can’t recall seeing it:

    20 Mar: Herald Sun: Terry McCrann: Daniel Andrews told 6 million to get stuffed
    WHAT about the other six million Victorians, Mr Premier? Don’t they deserve to keep their lights on, their fridges and air conditioners working, their businesses functioning, their jobs?
    Daniel Andrews is prepared to go to extraordinary lengths to “look after” about 400 workers in Gippsland.
    His government is tipping in $20 million of taxpayer money to fund a bizarre redundancy scheme for 150 workers in the power industry.
    It will keep that many — but only that many — in a job, of the 1000 or so Hazelwood workers who are headed for the scrap heap with the power station.
    Even more bizarrely, he’s committed to buy the Heyfield timber mill — which his government is deliberately driving out of business! — if a private sector buyer doesn’t step up, and to then pretend to keep it operating.
    But as for doing something for the other six million or so Victorians, by keeping the Hazelwood station open — the station which produces around 20 per cent of Victoria’s power, and anywhere between 20 and 40 per cent of South Australia’s power as well when the “wind don’t blow” over there?
    Well, nah, can’t be bothered; not a big deal — six million Victorians should each go buy a candle, is effectively the Premier’s response…READ ALL
    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/business/terry-mccrann/terry-mccrann-daniel-andrews-told-6-million-to-get-stuffed/news-story/57aeb60932de0e64ab1d7ac579444daf

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    • #

      Link won’t work for non-subscribers, however, pasting “daniel-andrews-told-6-million-to-get-stuffed” into Google or whatever that is open in a “new private window” should produce the document.
      Or here’s a copy:
      https://www.dropbox.com/s/y47sc9urs4rtx7j/McCrannonHazelwood.pdf?dl=0
      Added some of the comments as well

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      KinkyKeith

      I like Terry McCrann’s writing.

      If this type of opinion is allowed to be published then maybe the public will get to understand the truth behind their blackouts and vote accordingly.

      Of course there is that little problem of attracting the attention of those who imbibe the koolaid in the SMH.

      Still, a good start.

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    PeterS

    I’m not surprised there are political forces in control who have chosen the path of destruction of our existing stable base load power producing stations in the name of the wind and sun gods. In fact I don’t actually blame them – they are just doing what they promised they will do for many years and subsequently have been elected to complete their “vision”. What I am surprised is how the public are still asleep over the madness and have had no real drama about electing such governments, and worse still looks like electing ALP+Greens as the next federal government. Meanwhile other nations are building coal fired power stations as fast as they can without issues about the cost while still meeting their renewables targets to boot. It appears Australia is alone on this road to destruction of their basic infrastructure that can supply cheap and reliable power. Instead we have allowed the instigation of policies and rules that prohibit any possibility of build a coal fired power station here forever. Worse still we are closing down and in some cases blowing up some of our existing ones. We as a nation are mad and deserve to get whacked real hard – and we will be.

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      David Maddison

      They are building as many power stations as they can overseas and will often be burning Aussie coal in them, which we are not allowed to burn at home… In fact those places burning Aussie coal have cheaper electricity than we do.

      The whole situation is incomprehensibly messed up and getting much worse.

      Something serious has to be done or Australia will become a Second World nation. At least you can still drink the water (unless it comes from VIC’s desal plant in which case it is poisoned with boron).

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  • #

    A couple of you here have made comments regarding how output from these plants has lowered across the years.

    It’s something I have noticed recently, while looking at those SCADA tables every forty minutes or so.

    Look where Joanne has added those power plants in the main body of the text above, and I want to show you something, and I’ll add in another Plant from NSW, and note the change to Yallourn, as there were two Units I missed there.

    What you’re looking for here in the Original Nameplate total I have added to the right of the years in operation.

    In NSW:

    Bayswater – all four units running – 2494MW – 30 years old – 2640MW (4 X 660MW)

    Liddell – three of four units running – 750MW – 46 years old – 2000MW (4 X 500MW)

    Eraring – all four units running – 2340MW – 35 years old – 2800MW (4 X 720MW)

    Vales Point – both units running – 1130MW – 40 years old – 1320MW (2 X 660MW)

    Mt. Piper – one of two units running – 630MW – 24 years old – 1400MW (2 x 700MW)

    In Victoria:

    Loy Yang – five of six units running – 2580MW – 32 years old – 3150MW (6 X 525MW)

    Yallourn – two of two units running – 1122MW – 44 years old – 1450MW (2 X 350MW and 2 X375MW)

    Note how none of those plants is delivering its original maximum rated power. They will all drop off across the years.

    Tony.

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      Now note the plants in Queensland with interest on the age of those plants, the youngest coal fired fleet in Australia.

      Callide B – 700MW – 29 years old
      Callide C – 920MW – 16 years old
      Gladstone – 1680MW – 41 years old
      Kogan Creek – 750MW – 10 years old
      Milmerran – 850MW – 15 years old
      Stanwell – 1460MW – 20 years old
      Tarong North – 443MW – 14 years old
      Tarong – 1400MW – 30 years old
      Total Nameplate 8203MW

      Incidentally, see Stanwell there. One of the units there holds a World record for the longest run time of any Unit. They turned Unit One (365MW) back on after routine maintenance and it ran at its Maximum for 1,087 days, just 8 days short of three years, running continuously, 24 hours of every day. During that time it delivered 9,522.12GWH of power.

      That is just less than what is delivered by EVERY wind plant in Australia in one year, and that’s 43 wind plants with around 2400 turbines with a Nameplate of 3900MW, so 10.7 times the Nameplate of that Unit at Stanwell.

      Tony.

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        See how the element of good fortune comes into this.

        The two other States, Victoria and NSW are in trouble, because it will take at least 5 years minimum to get a new coal fired plant up and running after all this kerfuffle goes away, and Hazelwood’s closure at least starts the conversation on all of that.

        For South Aus, well, they’re in Giant Oak Tree territory.

        With Queensland, most of the plants are younger than 20 years, so when the time comes, they will just be replaced, and even the Renewables inquiry came out with its main finding that no coal fired plants will be closed by the target date, 2030, so they’ll just keep humming along, and when the time actually comes, politicians in Queensland will say (but only in private when no one can hear them) “Phew! Dodged a buLLet there!”

        Thanks heavens they got built before all this $illine$$ started.

        When someone actually twigs to the fact that Australia consumes 18,000MW at 3.30 in the morning, when most of us are sound asleep, questions will be asked as to where that actually comes from and what happens when the suppliers of that electricity are closed down.

        Tony.

        Oh, and the Giant Oak Tree analogy – Thoroughly r00ted!

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      David Maddison

      Thanks Tony.

      Here is an article about how windmills age with time, for comparison.

      http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148113005727

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      Rod Stuart

      Tony if that is the load at a moment in time, it is not necessarily the most that a unit can do.
      Apart from age or deterioration, there is another reason that a particular unit is not operating at its capability.
      These units are all registered with AEMO, so AEMO has control of the load at which they are operating.
      One reason that a machine is to performing at its capability is that the operator has only bid in a a specific output. For instance, it is quite possible that the operator for Liddel has only bid three machines into the market, keeping one idle for maintenance. Perhaps the other three units are bid in at several tranches, and the system has only dispatched two units at 300MW, and the third might only be bid in up to 100MW with 400 MW contracted to the system as FCAS.
      I doubt that you can view the bids and offers like the company’s traders can.
      I seriously doubt that three 500 MW machines can only manage 750MW due to age or condition.

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      Look again at this list of power plants in NSW and Victoria.

      Old Liddell is primarily used as rolling reserve, and is restricted to 250MW per unit from (originally) 500MW units, but is now being used as a prime supplier.

      Three plants have closed in NSW, admittedly old, and also used as rolling reserve, which is burning and turning, but not delivering power until needed, usually when the Majors have units go down for scheduled servicing.

      Because they were just used for that purpose, it was costly for them to operate, so they just closed them down.

      Now, there is no rolling reserve, or very very little of it. It was assumed that the gas fired OCGT plants would take up the slack, but now the cost of gas is almost prohibitive.

      See now the stress being placed on those existing coal fired plants, now also all of them getting old.

      Hazelwood going out only exacerbates this now.

      Keep in mind also that there were plans in train to upgrade both Bayswater and Mt. Piper in NSW to USC and those plans date back to 2008.

      I’ll link into the Bayswater plan if only to show you one thing.

      Link to Bayswater Upgrade.

      Now, at that link, if you wish, click on any of those folios under attachments etc, and see how much there is, all of them long and involved pdf documents.

      All of this is years of work already done to get to this stage.

      The proposal was for CCGT or USC coal, and for an additional 2000MW. CCGT meant gas pipelines etc, from somewhere or other I guess, so my guess is that the focus would have been on USC coal fired.

      Either way, it all crashed and burned for lack of political will.

      Macquarie Generation was willing to do this. MacGen was later acquired by AGL.

      All that work done for no result, just from a scare campaign, and now we find ourselves where we are, short on power.

      Tony.

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      David Maddison

      Another thought is that these machines were designed with a specific lifetime in mind and they could deliver the nameplate for their design lifetime but as that lifetime has been exceeded, perhaps they are being kept running at a lower power so as not to overstress their worn components -IF- the worn components are not constantly replaced with new specification components.

      I would have thought that no matter how old a machine is, if it is maintained to within its original design tolerances, it could produce its designed power assuming materials are constantly checked and components with metal fatigue or corrosion etc are replaced. After all, if that were done it would be no different to a new machine.

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      • #
        David Maddison

        Take old aircraft engines, for example. To be certified they have to perform to original specification, even in antique aircraft with no commercial use, no matter how old they are.

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        Rod Stuart

        True, a steam turbine and generator set, assuming it has not experienced catastrophic failure, could be maintained in such a way that it could continue to operate safely and efficiently for probably a hundred years or more.
        However, there is a lot more to a power station that the turbo-generator. Fuel handling systems, pulverisers, blowers, boiler casings, boiler tubes, lube oil systems, heat exchangers, switchgear, high voltage equipment, unit step up transformers, etc. that become obsolete (and quite quickly in the last few decades) and can’t be replaced in kind. There is a stage reached at which it might be POSSIBLE, but far from economically feasible.
        Having said that, it would probably ALWAYS be economically advantageous when compared with wasting capital on “renewables”.

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    pat

    ***DIVERSE? obviously there was no ideological diversity but, judging by the PHOTO in the piece, there wasn’t any other kind of diversity either:

    15 Mar: BoulderWeekly: Ximena Leyte: One community at a time
    Hundreds gather in Denver for the 34th Climate Reality Leadership Corps training session
    Like an increasing number of parents these days, Harriet Shugarman, mother of two, often worries not only about how climate change will affect us today but also how it will affect future generations. While Shugarman, a Canadian native residing in New York, worked as a policy analyst with the International Monetary Fund for the United Nations, she says did not hear a widespread call for climate action until 2006, when former U.S. Vice President Al Gore released his film, An Inconvenient Truth. Then in 2007, shortly after watching the film, she attended a Climate Reality Leadership Corps training session…

    During the first weekend of March, the Colorado Convention Center was filled with hundreds of ***DIVERSE individuals attending the 34th Climate Reality Leadership Corps training, the first training following the Sundance premier of Gore’s An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power…
    With a decrease in snowfall costing ski resorts and companies approximately $1 billion in potential revenue, a big focus at the conference centered on the Climate Reality Project’s I AM PRO SNOW program. I AM PRO SNOW is a grassroots initiative partnering with athletes and major industries to fight against warming winters.

    Another program branching from the Climate Reality Project is the 100% Committed campaign. During the training, Park City, Moab, Ski Butlers and Colorado State University all made the pledge to transition to 100 percent renewable energy before 2030. Cities, companies and colleges interested in making the transition can contact the Climate Reality Project for resources and step-by-step procedures on how to do so…
    http://www.boulderweekly.com/boulderganic/one-community-at-a-time/

    non-partisan…and witty too!

    21 Mar: Greenbiz: Kathrin Winkler: Getting real: A week inside Al Gore’s climate reality
    “It” was the 34th training session of Al Gore’s Climate Reality Project Leadership Corps, and the first since the November election. And it managed to thread the needle — not sugar-coating the scale of the climate challenge, or denying the onslaught of setbacks, yet still inspiring appreciation for the many gains being made, belief in our power to do more and hope that we will do it fast enough.
    That hope is surely needed now more than ever. Many of the 972 participants shared with one another our motivation for attending. I heard repeatedly, “I woke up on Nov. 9 and knew I had to do something,” as well as “I’m sunk in despair and want to rekindle my sense of hope.”…

    The more than 11,000-member global Leadership Corps includes founders of nonprofits and social enterprises, organizers of moms, a creator of the widely distributed Islamic Declaration on Global Climate Change, authors of policy and of books, and holders of local office…
    The centerpiece was Gore’s delivery of the full two-hour presentation, followed on Day 2 by a one-hour version. “The presentation,” by the way, is not a fixed set or sequence of slides. It is a living portfolio of 30,000 (!) slides, constantly updated, revised and selected for purpose by Gore himself…
    But Gore doesn’t need them. He is a fount of information, rattling off pithy right-brained anecdotes and wonky left-brained facts and figures. He was fond of saying “That’s above my pay grade” when moderating panels or introducing other speakers, but no one was fooled — he’s one smart dude.
    Witty, too…

    I suspect he was a little cautious about how much to expose his consternation over the current state of politics, but he gauged well that the audience was supportive and ramped up the side comments over the three days, albeit always with a touch of humor…
    https://www.greenbiz.com/article/week-inside-al-gores-climate-reality

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    David Maddison

    Apart from Venezuela, is Australia the most self-destructive country in the West (excluding countries destroying themselves by inappropriate immigration such as France, Germany, Sweden etc.)?

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      PeterS

      Until Trump came along the US was on the same self-destructive road. Of course the socialists in the US are still trying their best to overturn Trump so they can resume their destruction.

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        Dennis

        The anti-Trump campaign is anti-Abbott on steroids.

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        David Maddison

        Unfortunately, Australia has no one like Trump who has a remote possibility of forming government.

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          PeterS

          Unfortunately you are correct. That’s why I truly believe Australia is heading for a complete disaster economically and socially unless we have some really major changes. All the blame rests on the public for being asleep. We either end up being a complete socialist state much like Venezuela or by some miracle the people rise up and demand the complete end of socialism once and for all and the beginning of two new real major parties that both have good intentions for the future of this once great nation, and embark on a major program to rebuild it.

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    Royblando

    While Hazelwood can produce cheap and reliable electricity, it can compete with wind and solar that get a REC (renewable energy certificate) worth $60 to $90 for each MWhr they put out. They earn more for undercutting Hazelwood, making Hazelwood uneconomic. What idiots dream this stuff up?

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    pat

    ex-Fairfax Perry omits much about ReachTel poll:

    22 Mar: Bloomberg: Perry Williams: Adani’s $16.5 Billion Coal Mine in Australia Faces Fresh Wave of Protests
    Former Greens leader Brown spearheads 13-member alliance
    A new environmental campaign to stop the development of Adani Group’s $16.5 billion coal mine in Queensland will be launched Wednesday with the high-profile backing of former Australian Greens party leader Bob Brown.
    “Adani and the federal government have no idea of the scale of opposition and voter backlash they’re facing — it is time for them to withdraw approvals for the mine and stop coal for good,” Brown said in an emailed statement.
    Three-quarters of Australians oppose a plan for Adani to tap a $900 million government subsidy to help fund infrastructure connected to the mine, according to a ***ReachTEL poll released by the new Stop Adani Alliance. The campaign group brings together 13 conservation and community organizations representing 1.5 million Australians, according to the statement…
    The ReachTEL telephone survey of ***2,134 Australian residents was carried out on March 14. No margin of error was given.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-21/adani-coal-mine-in-australia-faces-fresh-wave-of-protests

    16 Mar: SMH Exclusive: Fergus Hunter: Delegation to confront Adani over Galilee coal mine
    The group – comprised of businessman, conservationist and former Howard government adviser Geoff Cousins and three other campaigners – will also deliver a letter signed by 90 prominent Australians…
    Signatories include Mr Cousins, Telstra chair John Mullen, cricketing brothers Ian and Greg Chappell, writer Tim Winton, musician and former politician Peter Garrett, businessman Mark Burrows, writer Helen Garner and former Australian of the Year, Professor Fiona Stanley…

    Polling commissioned by the Australian Marine Conservation Society has found 63 per cent of Australians agree or strongly agree that “the best thing for Australia would be for Adani to invest in large-scale solar power stations, rather than a new coal mine”.
    The ReachTEL survey of 2134 people found only 12 per cent disagree or strongly disagree. It also found 72 per cent would prefer a Queensland delegation also visiting India, led by Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk, to seek out renewable energy project investment compared to just 15 per cent favouring coal…
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/delegation-to-confront-gautam-adani-over-galilee-coal-mine-20170315-guyn1i

    one more link to come.

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    pat

    open for “results”:

    PDF: 15 Mar: FightForOurReef.org: ReachTel: FINAL RESULTS
    (Fight For Our Reef is an initiative of the Australian Marine Conservation Society)
    ReachTEL conducted a survey of 2,134 residents across Australian households. The survey was
    conducted on the night of the 14 th March 2017.
    Indian mining company Adani wants to build a new coal mine in Queensland, which they argue will create local employment opportunities but serious concerns have been raised about the mines impact on the local environment and negative impacts on Queensland’s regional economy and existing local jobs.
    Question 2:
    Do agree or disagree with this statement?
    “ The best thing for Australia would be for Adani to invest in large-scale solar power stations, rather
    than a new coal mine. ”
    Question 3:
    The Queensland Premier and Regional Mayors are currently on a trade mission to India. Do you think
    they should be seeking investment in clean energy solutions like new solar power stations or in coal
    mines?…
    https://www.fightforourreef.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/ReachTel_AdaniPoll_14032017.pdf

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      KinkyKeith

      Well Pat, based on those results, the path for any politician is quite clear.

      Go for the blackouts.

      KK

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    pat

    read all:

    21 Mar: NYT: Coral Davenport: Trump Lays Plans to Reverse Obama’s Climate Change Legacy
    While the White House is not expected to explicitly say the United States is withdrawing from the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change, and people familiar with the White House deliberations say Mr. Trump has not decided whether to do so, the policy reversals would make it virtually impossible to meet the emissions reduction goals set by the Obama administration under the international agreement…

    In an announcement that could come as soon as Thursday or as late as next month, according to people familiar with the White House’s planning, Mr. Trump will order Mr. Pruitt to withdraw and rewrite a set of Obama-era regulations known as the Clean Power Plan, according to a draft document obtained by The New York Times. The Obama rule was devised to shut down hundreds of heavily polluting coal-fired power plants and freeze construction of new coal plants, while replacing them with vast wind and solar farms.

    The draft also lays out options for legally blocking or weakening about a half-dozen additional Obama-era executive orders and policies on climate change…
    Experts in environmental law say it will not be possible for Mr. Trump to quickly or simply roll back the most substantive elements of Mr. Obama’s climate change regulations, noting that the process presents a steep legal challenge that could take many years and is likely to end up before the Supreme Court…

    He is also expected to order White House economists to revisit an Obama-era budgeting metric known as the social cost of carbon…
    The draft order would also rescind an executive order by Mr. Obama that all federal agencies take climate change into account when considering any form of environmental permitting…

    Unlike the rollback of the power plant and vehicle regulations, which could take years and will be subject to legal challenges, Mr. Trump can make the changes to the coal mining ban and undo Mr. Obama’s executive orders with the stroke of a pen…
    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/21/climate/trump-climate-change.html?_r=0

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    pat

    21 Mar: Washington Times: Valerie Richardson: Third year of flat global carbon emissions fuels resistance to Paris climate accord
    International Energy Agency report shows carbon dioxide release remained constant as economy grew
    Even without the Paris climate agreement, worldwide carbon dioxide emissions stayed flat last year for the third year in a row as the global economy grew, raising questions about the need for the UN accord.

    Estimates from the International Energy Agency released Friday showed emissions from the industrial sector last year measured at 32.1 gigatonnes, the same amount as the previous two years, while the global economy grew by 3.1 percent.
    The United States saw the biggest one-year drop, with emissions falling by 3 percent as the economy expanded by 1.6 percent. The decrease pushed U.S. carbon dioxide emissions to their lowest level since 1992, even though the economy grew during that period by 80 percent…
    China, the world’s largest emitter along with the United States, saw emissions fall by 1 percent and the economy expand by 6.7 percent…

    “Who needs EPA regulations or UN treaties to reduce carbon dioxide emissions?” said Climate Depot publisher Marc Morano, a staunch opponent of the Paris accord. “Emissions are slowing due market forces, technology driven efficiency and of course—fracking.”
    He added that if “climate activists were intellectually honest, they would be singing the praises of fracking as the most effective way to reduce emissions. Fracking has put the UN climate agreement out of business.”…
    http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/mar/21/third-year-flat-global-carbon-emissions-fuels-resi/

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    David Maddison

    If only our excrement-for-brains politicians understood the basic concempt in this simple (but a little dated) graph.

    https://www.aps.org/units/fps/newsletters/201204/images/figure2.jpg

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    David Maddison

    “Renewable energy” needs to be understood in terms of a government legislated scheme to make more money for rich Leftist Elitists who have financial interests in windmills (e.g. unions). By Elitists, for Elitists.

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    pat

    B20, T20 & C20 tell G20 they must stick to the CAGW program:

    22 Mar: Australian: Reuters: G20 urged to return climate change agenda
    Business executives and scientists are urging the world’s leading economies to put global warming back on the G20 agenda after finance ministers and central bankers failed to reaffirm their readiness to finance measures against climate change.
    The G20′s outreach organisations for business (B20), think tanks (T20) and civil society groups (C20) urged the Group of 20 leading economies in a joint statement on Tuesday to take fast and fundamental action to counter rising temperatures.
    “Climate change represents one of the largest risks to sustainable development, inclusiveness, equitable economic growth and financial stability,” the statement said.
    “We need to be sure that (G20 leaders) will fulfil existing international climate-related commitments, foremost the Paris Agreement,” it said.
    The statement was signed by B20 chair Kurt Bock, who is also CEO of chemicals group BASF, and several leading scientists, including Ottmar Edenhofer from the Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change…
    The business leaders and scientists welcomed Germany’s continued leadership on the issue as rotating president of the G20…
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/g20-urged-to-return-climate-change-agenda/news-story/e4aff0c9107de16092145c91a5d8b12a

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    DOC

    I have never seen addressed what happens at windfarms when those heads all need replacing. What is the cost structure of that which must also be built in to the cost of these scourges.
    In Esperance, WA, I believe the wind farm generators had a life of twenty years. Having reached that ‘old age’, I am told the cost of renewal is so high that the decision was taken to simply shut the farm down. That is not a big wind farm, but is in a windy place on the WA south Coast.
    My main point is: What is the projected life of these things and what is the cost of replacement?

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    pat

    21 Mar: AsiaSentinel: IRIN: Lou Lo Bello: Historic Climate Pact Endangered
    US President Donald Trump’s campaign promise to “cancel the Paris Agreement” is one step closer to reality after leaders from the Group of 20 richest economies backtracked on pledges to allocate $100 billion per year by 2020 for climate change response…
    An earlier draft of the communiqué obtained by Bloomberg cited “scarce public resources” as the reason behind the U-turn on climate finance. Instead, members shifted the emphasis to development banks and private investors, although even that language was removed from the final version…
    The US alone had pledged US$3 billion to the Green Climate Fund, which is the main financing tool under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, and it delivered US$1 billion under the administration of former president Barack Obama. The other US$2 billion will not materialize under Trump, and the fund will be left with a massive deficit if other countries follow suit.
    The Paris Agreement itself is now at risk…

    They (private financiers) already perceive renewable energy and green infrastructure as highly risky, and they are even more unlikely to invest in countries governed corruptly or lacking a robust policy framework that regulates how businesses operate…
    Of the nearly US$22 billion Congo asked for to realize its Nationally Determined Contribution to the Paris Agreement, only US$182 million has been allocated. With a GDP of less than US$500 per capita, the country can’t develop without substantial help…
    Barbara Buchner, who heads the climate finance program at the Climate Policy Initiative research institute, explained that businesses shy away from green investments when they don’t have a clear picture of what technologies are available. For example, solar and wind are now much more efficient than just a few years ago and offer better return on investment, but investors still tend to perceive them as too risky or costly…

    The G20’s change of heart on climate finance “is a major turning point in international cooperation,” said Bangila. “From now on, each country will have to address the climate issue according to its own economic interests (as opposed to a global strategy).”
    ***This attitude could lead countries to take another page from Trump’s playbook, he said: “Maybe we will come to believe that climate change is a hoax after all.”
    http://www.asiasentinel.com/econ-business/historic-climate-pact-endangered/

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  • #

    I first noticed this occurrence with Hazelwood on the 2nd March, so that’s when I started taking all the data for the sake of comparison.

    I located those SCADA archives which list output data for each day, and I went back to see when the running as many units as possible thing started.

    On 25th February Hazelwood was only running 6 of those 8 units.

    On 26th February, they started to run up the seventh during the night.

    The 27th they ran all seven of them all day.

    At 8AM on the 28th, that eighth Unit came on line and they ran all 8 units for the rest of that day.

    On 1st March, all eight Units ran all day.

    And on the 2nd March I noticed it.

    Add in those four days for Hazelwood, and also for all the wind, and the result is actually higher than what it is now, because all those days had poor wind generation, below 20% CF on every day.

    I’m debating whether or not to add in those totals to what I have, but the point has really been made.

    I wonder if anyone in any positions of power have noticed this. I emailed Frydenburg with no answer, and also Matt Canavan, also with no answer.

    After so long of making submissions to parliamentary inquiries and emailing politicians, I am absolutely certain no notice is ever taken by any of them. You get the automated computer generated responses from their offices, but never hear anything.

    The only actual response from any politician I have ever had was for my submission to the federal wind inquiry, and that was from Sen. Leyonhjelm, but I even doubt he read the submission.

    We can show all we can, but no one in positions of power even notices.

    Tony.

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    pat

    wasn’t this former PM Abbott’s plan?

    21 Mar: Voice of America: Reuters: Put Rainfall, Air Conditioning Back Into Trees, Scientists Say
    International climate and environment agreements have a flaw which may jeopardize attempts to curb global warming quickly: they do not highlight the role trees play in creating rainfall and cooling the earth’s surface, 22 scientists said on Tuesday…
    Trees bring moisture to the air, and release chemicals that can lead to the formation of clouds, Meine van Noordwijk, chief science advisor at the World Agroforestry Center, told the Thomson Reuters Foundation…
    The group of scientists called for a “significant revision” of national and regional strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change.
    This includes planting more trees in cities, creating shade that naturally cools areas so people can spend less money and energy on air conditioning, the scientists said…

    ScienceDirect: Global Environmental Change Volume 43, March 2017: Research Letter: Trees, forests and water: Cool insights for a hot world
    Our call to action targets a reversal of paradigms, from a carbon-centric model to one that treats the hydrologic and climate-cooling effects of trees and forests as the first order of priority…
    http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378017300134

    21 Mar: AllAfrica: Africa: Cool Insights for a Hot World: Trees and Forests Recycle Water
    Analysis by Daisy Ouya
    Anyone who has walked outside on a sunny day knows that forests and trees matter for temperature, humidity and wind speed. Planting trees speaks to concerns about climate change, but the directly important aspects of the tree-climate relationships have so far been overlooked in climate policy where it relates to forest.

    That, at least, is the conclusion of a new review. The authors suggest that the global conversation on trees, forests and climate needs to be turned on its head: the direct effects via rainfall and cooling may be more important than the well-studied effects through the global carbon balance.
    Yet, current climate policy only recognizes the latter. While farmers understand that trees cool their homes, livestock and crops, they had to learn the complex and abstract language of greenhouse gasses and carbon stocks if they wanted to be part of climate mitigation efforts. Not anymore, if the new perspectives become widely accepted…

    “Carbon sequestration is a co-benefit of the precipitation-recycling and cooling power of trees. As trees process and redistribute water, they simultaneously cool planetary surfaces”, says Dr David Ellison, lead author of the study.
    Trees are giant air conditioners with no power bills…
    “Where most water studies have focused on the ‘blue water’ in rivers and the ‘green water’ used by plants, water in the atmosphere is now recognized as ‘rainbow water’”, says Dr Meine van Noordwijk, co-author and Chief Scientist with the World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF). “The policy arena may have to adjust to the idea that rainfall is not simply the result of large scale air mass movements, but depends importantly on how upwind neighbours care for their forests…READ ON
    http://allafrica.com/stories/201703210468.html

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    TdeF

    Hazelwood is universally described as old and the ‘dirtiest‘ power station in Australia. No one says why it is ‘dirty’. This scientific slander might see the inside of a court of law.

    Even in this article it is shown as 53 years old. This is wrong. “commissioning of the generating units moved forward to 1969. ..two additional generating units at Hazelwood were to be commissioned in 1970 and 1971 respectively”

    That means the youngest two were 46,47 and the oldest two 48 years old, not 53. This matters if you are being forced to shut down.

    “International Power plc purchased Hazelwood Power Station and the adjoining mine from the Victorian Government in 1996 with a 40-year life“, which means they paid $2.5Billion in 1996 for a power station which was effectively guaranteed to generate income until 2036. The two newest generators were only 25 and 26 years old at the time.

    It would pay to check the contracts of sale and representations and guarantees in both directions because surely Engie and Mitsui are due compensation for being forced to sell in half that time by new government rules which make it unprofitable continue commercially, not least Daniel Andrews recent and incredible 300% increase in coal prices. The absurd excuse was that no change had been made in ten years which is no justification and known by all to threaten the commercial viability of the private power station.

    It is possible that Engie and partners have a very good case for compensation from the Victorian government (that’s us) for about $2.6Billion dollars. (ncreased by time and decreased 50%)

    Having paid $1.6 billion of our money ($1000 per family in Victoria) for the East West Link contract which was ‘not worth the paper it was written on’, it would not be the first time Daniel Andrews has found to have no idea of the commercial rights of contractors to the Victorian government.

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      TdeF

      You could add “capital investment, with A$800 million invested in Hazelwood since 1996, such as replacement of boilers, rotors, turbines and the completion of an A$85 million project to reduce dust emissions by 80%”. So the total cost is $3.4Billion plus inflation.

      You can be sure that the contact of sale meant Hazelwood met guarantees of supply and that the State of Victoria made assurances as to the price of brown coal and to continue to purchase electricity. There would also be guarantees of special pricing for the Alcoa plant at Portland and those SEC customers who were on special night time electricity rates. Balancing this would be guarantees by the State of Victoria on Brown coal supply, pricing and electricity demand. Those contracts will be a mine field for Daniel Andrews and there is enough money at stake to keep lawyers in work for say the other half of the 40 year life.

      No one would buy a house on a 40 year $3.4Billion lease only to find the lessor made it untenable after 20 years.
      Then there is the expected rehabilitation of the site, said by they SMH to cost $1.6Billion.
      The State of Victoria may find it has to buy Hazelwood back, which would please the Unions. I doubt Engine would want to run it.
      It may also explain why Weatherill does not just buy Pelican Point instead of building his own new $350Million gas power plant and is outrageously buying hundreds of diesels to fill the gap instead of paying Engie.

      Expect this all to blow up, especially when the rolling blackouts start across four states.

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        TdeF

        No one hands over $3.5Billion to lease a power station for 40 years only to find the vendor made it unprofitable. Looking over the figures, the ambit claim could be at least $5Billion.

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          David Maddison

          Brilliant points TdeF.

          It seems a lot of people deserve to go to jail over this.

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            TdeF

            I just noticed ” A$800 .. replacement of boilers, rotors, turbines”. Again that questions the throwaway ‘old’. As there has been replacement of the order of 30% of the original generation equipment, it is old like the old axe with three new heads and four new handles. This means the perjorative ‘old’ is even more inappropriate.

            As Tony says, he would expect Engie and Mitsui to be running Hazelwood down, not doing urgent running repairs. Either the owners are completely mad or they are real businessmen working in a Democratic country, not a communist one. In a Democratic country, you cannot do this to people, especially people to whom you made representations and promises so that you were paid billions.

            Imagine if you bought a business from someone with the usual performance guarantees. After all, Hazelwood was a State Government business with real obligations of supply. It would have come with strict performance guarantees for minimal levels of power and no strikes, which is probably why it was sold as strikes were frequent and damaging. Now the Labor governments seek to have it closed and are happy to use the excuse of ‘dirty’ and ‘old’, neither of which are true. The owners even spent an additional $85million on exhaust scrubbers.

            What is interesting is whether a court will sit on the definition on both ‘dirty’ and ‘old’. The allegation that CO2 is dirty, the basis of all lifeforms on the planet, may be tested in the Supreme court in Victoria. I suspect that fact that it is invisible may be a problem with the word ‘dirty’ and it is no more poisonous than water. As for the allegation that it is heating the planet, there is no proof which would stand up in a court, expert opinion from a dead kangaroo expert notwithstanding.

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              We can discuss among ourselves …
              we can ridicule in letters to the press …
              we can write to pollies who couldn’t care less…
              Say, where are those representatives elected by us
              to spearhead an attack? How do we bell the cat
              -asstrophy that’s destroying our hard-earned wealth?

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            TdeF

            Sadly David, what is being done to our country is not a crime, closer to treason, breach of faith, failure in public duty than criminal. Besides if stupidity and greed were crimes, the jails would be overflowing, politicians in the best cells. I think we can stick to Contract Law and I expect Engie and Mitsui are ready to act, but I doubt they will want to run Hazelwood or Pelican point anymore when the Governments of Victoria and South Australia have shown so much bad faith.

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        Robert Rosicka

        Isn’t the dirty thing because of 6% more emissisions from brown coal than black coal .
        At 6% that would be four fifths of fug all in the scheme of things .

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          TdeF

          However black is the definition of dirty. Too bad CO2 is transparent, like diamond. Carbon is an amazing element and the basis of all Organic chemistry, the study of carbon and of life on earth. Dirty stuff, chlorophyll, diamond, trees and people. All carbon.

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          TdeF

          Yes the Greens argue that the closure of Brown coal will somehow mean the more expensive Black coal mines and power stations in NSW will start up again. Why? If you cannot make money with cheaper brown coal, who is going to invest in black coal mines and old unused power stations. The Greens think they can just close everything or maybe that is their real intention anyway because none of the logic stands up.

          Most sadly laughable was Green’s Leader Richard Di Natale’s statement that Whyalla could keep making steel as long as they did not use coal! Has he no idea that it is coal which is used to make steel? It is coal which saved Europe’s forests from devastation. It is coal which has Greened England and Italy. Whole countries like Finland were stripped to the last tree. It seems no tree in Finland is over 200 years old.

          Despite being a GP, his lack of knowledge of simple chemistry is appalling. Only a total science ignoramus would fight carbon dioxide while being a carbon life form. It is like fish protesting about the amount of water.

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    TdeF

    “Are the engineers at Hazelwood defiantly showing off?”

    No, they are demonstrating that there is absolutely nothing wrong with Hazelwood. At 46 it is younger than most of our politicians. There are upwards of a thousand jobs on the line here, plus Portland and the rest of Yallourn. The engineers and contractors know the game is afoot, to some extent and they want their jobs.

    Politicians will soon find that they too are subject to the Laws of Contract and the Common Law.

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    TdeF

    I would be checking the bidirectional assurances in the original 1996 contract of sale or it might be another Daniel Andrews Laurel and Hardy moment. Of course, this time it would be another $3,000 a family just to shut our largest power station.

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      TdeF

      And it would not be a surprise if the taxpayers of Victoria had to pay more than a few billion dollars NOT have a power station they desperately need or to buy it and not use it, like the $28Billion Labor desalination plant.

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        David Maddison

        All this is sickening me TdeF. And I am looking at it from afar frim New York City at the moment.

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          TdeF

          Strangely I feel worse about the fish in the warm cooling ponds, soon to be killed by Green’s alleged love of nature and hatred of everything else, including other people, farms, workers, factories, power stations, cars, aircraft and everything which makes life good in the 21st century. They are the people against everything with no solutions, just trying to stop everything because they are comfortable. It is the ultimate selfishness.

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    Another Ian

    Jo

    O/T but FYI

    “Bitchute Corbett Report on Judith Curry – Climate Models For The Layman”

    https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2017/03/21/bitchute-corbett-report-on-judith-curry-climate-models-for-the-layman/

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    David Maddison

    I keep thinking, surely there’ll be a last minute reprieve such as Dopey Dan removing the tripling of the coal tax which finally killed the power station but then I realise, Australia is quite likely the worst governed Western nation on earth, apart from Venezuela.

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    David Maddison

    Of all the obscenely bad decisions that have ever been made by Australian governments and the public serpents that tell politicians what to think, I would say closing Hazelwood is probably the worst because it will put in place a string of events from which we are unlikely to recover.

    I am assuming they will immediately destroy Hazelwood rather than properly mothball it.

    We can’t run an economy on windmills. Once this is realised there is a very remote possibility that sanity will prevail. A decision might then be made to build new coal power stations (or nuclear but that’s an extremely remote possibility).

    However, as Tony has pointed out, even if a decision was made to fast track a new power station that would take around six years before it produced any power.

    That means the economy will suffer and decline for six more years of expensive and unreliable windmill power while economic competitors forge ahead in leaps and bounds on coal power stations running on Aussie coal or nuclear power stations on Aussie uranium.

    We’ve had multiple opportunities and now we’ve finally blown it.

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    Steve Richards

    With reference to Hazelwood not generating full power,

    Steam generators (boilers) to age, parts of a boiler age at different rates, for different reasons.

    Below is a table from http://aceee.org/files/proceedings/2007/data/papers/17_2_107.pdf

    Which lists typical ages for replacement of parts.

    Table 1. Component Replacement Schedule for a Typical High Temperature, High Pressure Boiler
    Typical Life (Years) – Component Replaced – Cause for Replacement
    20 – Miscellaneous Tubing – Corrosion, erosion, overheating
    20 – Attemperator – Fatigue
    25 – Superheater (SH) – Creep
    25 – SH Outlet Header – Creep, Fatigue
    25 – Burners and Throats – Overheating, Corrosion
    30 – Repeater – Creep
    35 – Primary Economizer – Corrosion
    40 – Lower Furnace – Overheating, Corrosion
    Note: The actual component life is highly variable depending on the specific design, operation, maintenance and fuel Source: Babcock & Wilcox, 1992

    Boiler water is chemically treated to reduce internal corrosion. It still happens though.

    At an annual inspection a surveyor will measure metal thickness and either place pressure restrictions on the boiler, state which part requires replacement or condemn the whole boiler.

    It is quite easy to see the power output reduce over time (decades).

    Common boiler metallurgy issues: corrosion, erosion and creep. All understood and dealt with.

    Ultimately a plant can get so old, it may be more economic to build a new one using the latest technology rather than piece meal replacement.

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      TdeF

      As Hazelwood has demonstrated, it is working flat out generating near name plate capacity. Since 1996 the new owners have invested 30% more in updating and maintaining generation capacity including replacement of boilers, rotors, turbines and upgrades. In engineering terms it is not old. At least one 747 built in 1970 is still flying and the risks are far less than for four individual turbines on the ground. It is possible a power plant like Hazelwood could be maintained effectively for far longer than a jumbo airframe and taken out of service, upgraded and brought back at far lower cost than a wholly new plant.

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    David Maddison

    Diesel generation in SA will cost a mere $433 per MWh vs $50 for coal.

    You just can’t make this up.

    https://stopthesethings.com/2017/03/22/back-to-the-future-wind-powered-south-australia-to-run-on-diesel-generators/

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      TdeF

      The devil in the detail is the RET, money which under Federal Law must be paid for the right to run diesel generators.

      The SA government is not exempt from the RET! So $11Million a month for Tasmania for 100mwatt of diesel will become $22Million a month for South Australia. They will also need to pay $44Million a month in addition to pay Carbon Taxes (Large Generation Certificates) from windpower producers. That’s $528Million a year for a mere 200Megawatt. Pelican Point, standing idle because it lost a mere $15Million last year, could be switched on tomorrow for much less.

      Paying hundreds of millions in subsidies to Port Pirie and Whyalla to keep going and now for a giant battery and a new State Owned Pelican Point and the Diesel generators, where is Jay Weatherill getting all this money for nothing? The State was fine just three years ago and none of this had to be paid. As Margaret Thatcher said, socialism is fine until you run out of other people’s money.

      All this to stay in political power with Green votes?

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    Oliver K. Manuel

    Today’s attack on Parliament in London is an expression of the mental instability of world government.

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      Eddie

      It may be many things but the police spokesman is refusing to speculate.

      It doesn’t say much for the state of mind of the assailant either though.

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    Pegasus

    As much as I really do hate to say this, until we start to experience serious blackouts, not just an hour or 2 of inconvenience, but serious losses of power due to no generating capacity, then this country will do nothing to reverse this madness. The ‘people’ will have to suffer hardship before they wake up and take these ‘warmists’ to task. My fear is that this will drive the reaction of builing MORE wind towers, how mad would that be.

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    en passant

    “Trust me!”, the Andrews government Minister has said. “The data showing that on 36 days a year the generation capacity is exceeded by the demand is WRONG.” She is right of course. The Government will simply order the Portland Smelter to close operations giving the voting public the ability to stay cool, while smelter management seeks an alternative location overseas to move its operations.

    Surely this is a win-win for all as we de-industrialise, unemploy, reduce our living standards, impoverish families and save the planet? Does it get any better than that in the new Oz where the main concern is saving vermin, gender selection, islamophobia against the religion of peace {or they will kill you} and participation events (avoiding any of this competitive winning & losing stuff that the rest of the world is barbarically involved in and affecting the snowflakes self-esteem)?

    Ask me again why I moved to a vibrant Asian country that is like the Oz I remember from decades ago …

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    Power Grab

    @ Pat re:

    Ultimately, Congress must join the fray. I recommend the creation of a simple, two-sentence law that would do what Congress should have done more than a decade ago: “Carbon dioxide, a naturally occurring, beneficial trace gas, not being toxic to humans or harmful to the environment at any foreseeable levels, is a not pollutant. Accordingly, no agency or department of the U.S. government is authorized to regulate, place limits on or tax carbon-dioxide emissions, directly or indirectly, unless and until the Congress of the United States expressly directs specific agencies or departments to impose such regulations and taxes.”

    Might be time for such an amendment to the US Constitution. I believe I would vote for it.

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    [...] Hazelwood Coal-fired power station makes more electricity than Australia’s entire wind industry: http://joannenova.com.au/2017/03/hazelwood-countdown-53-years-old-and-making-more-electricity-than-a… Hazelwood is vital to Australia’s power supply: http://www.newsweekly.com.au/article.php?id=57624 [...]

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