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Gottleibsen: Australian Energy Crisis “criminal” with 75% chance of blackout

Last days before Hazelwood shuts down.

Robert Gottleibsen in The Australian a couple of days ago has investigated our energy crisis, and discovered our old centralized grid design is quite likely to fall over next summer in an incredibly expensive way. It’s nice that he did some research and even talked to engineers:

The looming crisis is much worse than I expected. Three state governments, Victoria NSW and South Australia, have vandalised our total energy system. The Premiers of each state clearly had no idea what they were doing and did not sit down with top engineers outside the government advisers to work out the best way to achieve their objectives — whether that be an increase in renewables or gas restrictions.

He warns that it is potentially criminal:

I have been alerted that in the 1995 Federal Criminal Code under Section 137.1 in Chapter 7 there is a section entitled ‘Good administration of government’.

Me? I remain a cynic (not that I’m a lawyer). The legislation has been there since 1995, threatens 12 months in prison for “misleading information”. It can’t be this simple.

Still it would be good if politicians were scared into doing the right thing (keep Hazelwood running, explore for gas, talk about nuclear):

I can’t prejudge the courts but there appears to be no statute of limitation in the legislation so every statement made by any politician may be available to be examined by the courts to see if it is false or misleading. If we get damaging blackouts or gas shortages then my guess is that any politicians and advisors who are charged will face the next five to 10 years defending themselves in the courts. The government of the day will decide whether they should have legal aid.

This legislation is about promoting public service and political honesty. If Hazelwood is closed the Victorian government needs to tell the people that there is a good chance of blackouts but, (if it’s true), say that they are bringing in the best experts from around the world to lessen the chance. Maybe the Commonwealth should bring in the experts but they too must tell the people the truth.

From the “75% chance of a blackout” article:

Here is what some of the best energy engineers in the country tell me:

• Without urgent action residents of NSW, Victoria and South Australia have a 75 per cent chance of blackouts next summer if the Hazelwood power station shuts on April 2. Those blackouts will cost the nation tens and tens of billions of dollars in the food, medicine and processing industries.

• Without government action gas supply might, repeat might, be sufficient in this year’s (2017) winter but there is no doubt there will be major shortfalls in the 2018 and 2019 winters;

• All industries and consumers will experience much larger energy costs from the network — but to be safe must also consider spending vast sums to be prepared for the power and gas shortages. This is third world.

We have a power grid that has not been engineered for the decentralised sources of power that we are now generating led by renewables; many billions must be invested to make it efficient and that will have to be paid for by power users. The knowledge of how best do this is not held within the state or federal governments.

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Rating: 9.2/10 (113 votes cast)
Gottleibsen: Australian Energy Crisis "criminal" with 75% chance of blackout, 9.2 out of 10 based on 113 ratings

277 comments to Gottleibsen: Australian Energy Crisis “criminal” with 75% chance of blackout

  • #
    • #
      Fantail

      Tried to include a link to Laurel and Hardy (That’s another fine mess you’ve gotten us into.), but obviously my intentions aren’t matched by my capabilities.

      551

      • #
        David Maddison

        We must ask the politicians and the public serpents that tell them what to think to demonstrate to an appropriate scientific standard of evidence that CAGW is real as they claim it is, contrary to scientific evidence that shows that it is not.

        If they can’t prove it then they must be prosecuted for the damage they have caused.

        Ignorance is not an excuse, nor is following instructions and that was not accepted at the Nuremberg trials as an excuse either.

        Heads need to roll!

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          PeterS

          Yes but the first heads that must roll are the leading scientists who are propagating the nonsense in the first place.

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          • #
            toorightmate

            Peter S,
            agree wholeheartedly. These western scientists have been a disgrace.
            How come those from China and Russia have stuck to telling the facts, while the mob from the west has wallowed on lies?

            293

            • #

              @toorightmate: “How come those from China and Russia have stuck to telling the facts, while the mob from the west has wallowed on lies?”

              I’ve done quite a bit of soul searching on this, and was hoping for a grant, but it hasn’t happened yet. However, 97% of my research indicates that the Western Scientists simply operate with under a different adjective; i.e., “political” scientist.

              51

            • #
              golfsailor

              Greenbacks

              00

          • #
            Egor the One

            The so called ‘leading scientists’ are not leading at science at all.

            A more appropriate title would be ‘leading gravy train propagandists and complicit racketeers’ !

            212

            • #
              michael hart

              On his blog Defeat Climate Alarmism, Leo Goldstein describes this well as “the competent authorities fallacy” (not the same as the “argument from authority fallacy”).

              The competent authorities fallacy is defined here as an unfounded belief that for a certain practical subject there exists a well known group of experts in this subject. A corollary of this belief is that hiring more and/or selecting the best experts from this group would lead to greater success in handling this subject.

              This fallacy arises from the fact that many practical areas do have well known groups of experts. Health care is the best example. Properly trained and licensed medical doctors are experts in their respective specialties and frequently in other medical matters. But there are plenty of practical problems in which experts do not exist or cannot be easily recognized. An example of such problem is winning in financial markets.

              …and, of course, climate science.

              62

        • #
          Paul in Sweden

          LOL@”public serpents” some how that expression has alluded me over the years. I like it.

          90

      • #
        toorightmate

        Laurel and Hardy are no match for the stark raving idiots who make up our state and federal parliaments.

        61

      • #
        turnedoutnice

        The windmill is falling down the stairs?

        30

      • #
        Gogs

        We wouldn’t have this problem if we’d kept Abbott and Costello ;-)

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      • #

        “As I have also written for the last 6 years, 1) stop all ‘climate
        policies’ immediately, and 2) take ‘climate’ science away
        from the ‘climate scientists’, indeed, take it away from any
        scientist who believes any part of it. It is all false; it all has to
        be redone, from the bottom up (as far back as the Standard
        Atmosphere, which alone is good science).”

        From “An Ever-Darker Future Imminent”.

        71

    • #
      Lynne Merigan

      I was taught history In primary school and was taught about The Vikings in Greenland. Recently I met a man born in Greenland and we were able to talk about the 600 years they were there what they built, grew etc so we know here was > [ Medieval — warming that must have been warmer than the piddling 0.7 ? Over the past years . We also have the Roman warming etc t.How do these believers explain those periods?

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  • #
    RobK

    Finally, it almost seems this issue may get some traction.

    231

    • #
      Sceptical Sam

      Yes Rob K, and good on Gottleibsen for finally asking the right questions.

      Providing cheap, plentiful and reliable electricity should not be this hard.

      South Australia has demonstrated the economic and social costs incurred from the policy failure that comes from a closed minded pursuit of green-left renewables ideology. It even infects the Liberal Party at both the Commonwealth and State levels. Come summer it will be fascinating.

      The policy adopted at the moment confuses means and ends. The policy objective in South Australia, Queensland and Victoria for example is to move to 50% renewables within a set timeframe. Even at the Federal level we see a Renewable Energy Target (RET) of 23.5%. But why?

      Isn’t the true objective to reduce GHG emissions? And at the Federal level that should accord with the Paris commitments. It’s not to have 50% of electricity generated by renewables. Means and ends. Confusion. If the objective is to reduce GHGs, then the focus needs to be on GHGs, not renewables. Renewables may constitute one of the means, but GHG reduction is the end; the objective. That, of course, is only rational if CO2 is the actual driver of global warming.

      So what should a rational policy look like?

      1. Contract to supply should be a contract to supply, no matter what. As I understand it, at the moment contracts to supply electricity from renewables do not require those producers to supply when the wind doesn’t blow or the sun doesn’t shine. At that point there is system failure.

      If renewables were required to meet their contract to supply – no matter what – the system would be far more stable. Lack of wind or sun is hardly a “force majeure” event.

      How to do that? The renewable producer would need to enter into a contract with another producer (maybe coal but probably gas) to supply the contracted electricity on a standby basis or buy some Powerwalls and store their surplus so that they only contract to supply energy that they can deliver. The increased price of that electricity would be borne by the renewables producer. Breach of contract to supply by the renewable producer could then be pursued in line with normal contract law. Similarly, consumers would be in a far better position to sue their supplier for damages flowing from failure to meet their obligation to supply.

      Why should wind and solar get a free kick at the expense of all the other players?

      2. Efficiency is efficiency, no matter what. If the objective is to reduce GHG emissions then why distort the market by favouring renewables? If coal, for example, produces more CO2 than wind (and more electricity to boot), then a policy that requires any excess CO2 to be offset is an appropriate, market based, mechanism to deal with the CO2 issue. If, after purchasing the offset, the supplier of that coal generated electricity can still supply electricity at a competitive rate, why should it not do so?

      Similarly, any contracted backup supplier to wind would need to offset its emissions and pass the cost on to the wind producer who in turn bids into the markets (in the current five minute supply contracts) to supply. International purchased offsets should not be prohibited. Any policy that inhibits international purchasing of CO2 offsets is a further distortion and, hence, another inefficiency.

      In this arrangement there is no need for subsidy of renewables – not from coal or gas generators, nor from consumers or taxpayers. The market sorts it out.

      3. CO2 is just CO2, no matter what. The empirical observations are increasingly failing to support the notion that manmade CO2 is responsible for the small increase in the global average temperature over the last 100 years. There is a solid and growing body of evidence that refutes the hypothesis that “CO2 is the major driver of catastrophic anthropogenic global warming”. Hence, scientifically, the Null hypothesis prevails.

      Until this issue is accepted scientifically, the rational policy position is to save scarce national resources that are being allocated to a potentially wasteful and inefficient purpose.

      On this basis, the priority issue should be to direct a proper scientific effort to establish whether the small increase in average global temperature over the last 100 years is predominantly due to the increased level CO2 and human induced CO2 in particular. Accordingly, scarce national resources are being squandered at the whim of the green-left activists, who appear to have an agenda totally unrelated to the issue of manmade CO2 being the predominant driver of global warming.

      If Gottleibsen is correct, let’s take the dopes through the legal system and make them squeal.

      301

      • #
        Graeme No.3

        Sceptical Sam:

        Well said but I would point out that there is little evidence that large quantities of renewables reduce CO2 emissions. Germany has only been able to reduce emissions by 2.6% since 2001 and that figure is questionable as burning wood and rubbish is under EU rules listed as NON CO2 emitting??
        Denmark has made reductions in emissions but closer inspection reveals anomalies. In a windy year 2015 wind turbines generated 14.4% more electricity and reached 42%, yet Denmark IMPORTED more electricity from Norway and Sweden that year. The claimed reduction in emissions depends on the electricity from Norway (hydro) and Sweden (hydro and nuclear) being classed as non-emitting. Also 12% of heating came from 670 CHP plants generating electricity (and heat) from wood pellets and other biomass. Again EU rules apply so the 17% cut in emissions now looks more like 5% actual.
        That S.A. has, and will cut emissions is undoubted because the huge list of companies shutting down production in the State. This isn’t likely to reverse in the future.
        So if renewables don’t cut emissions why do we bother with them?

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          Sceptical Sam

          I don’t bother with them Graeme No3. But they do. And they do so because they are on the public teat.

          The policy settings are irrational. That was my point. As a result governments are wasting huge amounts of scarce national resources which could be put to far more productive use.

          If renewables had to compete in an open and free market for electricity production the market would sort it out, the environment would be better off and the consumer would be paying the lowest possible price for power.

          Unfortunately, politicians are not acting in the national interest. I doubt they’d recognize a national interest if they tripped over one. Which, with renewables policy, they have.

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        ivan

        Sceptical Sam,

        Regarding supplying electricity from renewables you are saying almost the same thing that I have been saying about wind farms in the UK.

        The main difference between us is that as far as I am concerned every wind farm should have a a conventional power station associated with it on spinning reserve such that there is a constant supply to the grid from that wind farm.

        20

      • #
        Phil R

        Sceptical Sam,

        Renewables may constitute one of the means, but GHG reduction is the end; the objective

        I agree in general with your comment but, with respect, I think you have the means and ends exactly reversed. GHG reduction is the means and renewables are the end when it comes to this whole, crazy progressive global warming/climate change scam. How else do they scare the people and control the money for their crony renewable energy scams?

        21

  • #
    michael reed

    Michael,
    Well its finally got to this stage .Our energy security has been tampered with to the point where we potentially will have unnecessary blackouts.
    Our ability to refine crude oil has been let go.We are a nation that is energy rich yet we pay through the nose for our electricity ,which affects households and future and current investment by business.Yet governments both state and federal have been party to this crisis.All of this in the name of noble cause (corruption).To me it looks like scare mongering of the highest order of a dubious conjecture [SNIP O.T.].Yet over time the MSM have been totally complicit with spreading the CAGW meme.I once thought like some others at Jo’s blog that it would be good to see this outcome the crashing down of our “taken for granted “first world lives.However the plain truth is that correcting such a mess will take years even if vain virtue signalling politicians woke up to themselves and began acting responsibly for this country.

    112

    • #
      bobl

      Jo, I wish you could be bold enough to run an open debate on medical technology including vaccines – It is a space where there is a lot of “Consensus” science and there is a lot of expert opinion that is very poor. For example the abject stupidity in marketing sunscreens that work by emitting free radicals when absorbing UV photons and the almost complete abandonment of natural medicine as opposed to patentable synthetic molecules. As I am very fond of saying penicillin is a common bread mould – it’s as natural as it gets, Aspirin comes from the bark of a Willow tree.

      It would provide some relief and intellectual variety from the AGW topic too, some of your most popular posts and some of my favourite stories you’ve written have been medical research.

      For example Jo, medical imaging for Prostate cancer is NOT medicare rebateable – doesn’t that seem wrong to you?

      10

      • #
        Rod Stuart

        Not recoverable even from health insurance premium extras, but beyond a doubt the best use of $350 I ever spent. It is the foundation then for a guided biopsy, which is quite definitive.

        00

  • #
    Ross

    Slightly O/T but relevant. I’ve just listened to a radio interview (in NZ) with one of the top executives of Aston Martin and he was asked a question about the future of electric cars. He said they are about as certain as death and taxes. He went on to say that within 10 years( I think) 25% of all new cars will be electric and Aston Martin is moving in the direction of that technology (not hybrids).
    So it is not only the politicians who are blinded or sucked in by the scam –many senior business people are in the same camp.
    While I can see a few electric cars buzzing around the centres of Sydney or Melbourne there is no way they will cater for the normal distances travelled in Australia but then there will not be the electricity supply to support them , anyway the way the pollies are going.

    423

    • #
      pattoh

      Go long in Hamster cages & foods so they have a resource to charge them with.

      102

    • #
      TdeF

      Electric cars do not change the problem, just change the way energy is generated and sold. Witness the rush by Tasmania and South Australia for diesel. Batteries just smooth over the problem. However regenerative braking in the inner city can triple energy efficiency and a lot of trips are short, so like Amsterdam there is real value in electric cars which has nothing to do with the problem of where you get the energy.

      For Victorians, we own hundreds of years of brown coal and our mad politicians have decided coal is neither to be used nor exported. Even Natural Gas is totally banned, at least further exploration and exploitation. So we are back to imported windmills. Meanwhile quite mad activists and vote hungry politicians are trying to prevent the mining and export of coal, our main source of income and on which many millions of lives overseas depend as the world’s biggest exporter. This cannot continue.

      Whatever is going on between Engie/Mitsui and the Victorian government, the people of Victoria are being deceived and defrauded by their own government. We were unaware of the hundreds of millions in compensation being paid by our government to keep Hazelwood running. We are unaware of why Daniel Andrews tripled the price of coal. Most South Australians are unaware of why their government pays up to a billion dollars of their money a year to private companies to keep Port Pirie and Whyalla going. No one has any idea of the deals between Alcoa and the Victorian and Federal government to keep the jobs in Portland.

      The whole energy disaster is legislated primarily at a Federal level and supported by all three major parties, the RET. It is there to fund the development of alternative energies and that is a transparent failure, not the funding which is killing coal and gas generation, the alternative energies which do not work.. So it is ramping up, the world’s biggest Carbon tax. Why? Why does the Federal government do nothing.

      To add to the disaster, Labor is trying to sell the idea that privatization of power is the reason the power bills are triple, when they know perfectly well it is their laws. They pretend there is no carbon tax. Even the coalition just joined with Labor in the Victorian parliament to ban fracking, as NSW has banned coal mining and South Australia has blown up power stations. It has to stop. Only Tony Abbott has said the RET has to be stopped, as he stopped the boats. The problem would stop overnight. Do we really have to have disasters just so this is obvious to everyone? Cannot anyone else see or tell the truth. At least Gottliebsen is saying something. Where are the rest, or are they too scared to comment?

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        TdeF

        Electric cars do not change the problem, just change the way energy is generated and sold. Witness the rush by Tasmania and South Australia for diesel. Batteries just smooth over the problem. However regenerative braking in the inner city can triple energy efficiency and a lot of trips are short, so like Amsterdam there is real value in electric cars which has nothing to do with the problem of where you get the energy.

        For Victorians, we own hundreds of years of brown coal and our politicians have decided coal is neither to be used nor exported. Even Natural Gas is totally banned, at least further exploration and exploitation. So we are back to imported windmills. Meanwhile quite mad activists and vote hungry politicians are trying to prevent the mining and export of coal, our main source of income and on which many millions of lives overseas depend as the world’s biggest exporter. This cannot continue.

        Whatever is going on between Engie/Mitsui and the Victorian government, the people of Victoria are being misled by their own government. We were unaware of the hundreds of millions in compensation being paid by our government to keep Hazelwood running. We are unaware of why Daniel Andrews tripled the price of coal. Most South Australians are unaware of why their government pays up to a billion dollars of their money a year to private companies to keep Port Pirie and Whyalla going. No one has any idea of the deals between Alcoa and the Victorian and Federal government to keep the jobs in Portland.

        The whole energy disaster is legislated primarily at a Federal level and supported by all three major parties, the RET. It is there to fund the development of alternative energies and that is a transparent failure, not the funding which is shutting coal and gas generation, the alternative energies which do not work.. So it is ramping up, the world’s biggest Carbon tax. Why? Why does the Federal government do nothing.

        To add to the disaster, Labor is trying to sell the idea that privatization of power is the reason the power bills are triple, when they know perfectly well it is their laws. They pretend there is no carbon tax. Even the coalition just joined with Labor in the Victorian parliament to ban fracking, as NSW has banned coal mining and South Australia has blown up power stations. It has to stop. Only Tony Abbott has said the RET has to be stopped, as he stopped the boats. The problem would stop overnight. Do we really have to have disasters just so this is obvious to everyone? Cannot anyone else see or tell the truth. At least Gottliebsen is saying something. Where are the rest, or are they too scared to comment?

        534

        • #
          el gordo

          ‘Do we really have to have disasters just so this is obvious to everyone?’

          They have all been brainwashed by AGW propaganda, which as you know has been extremely effective, so the authorities will put everyone on a war footage as summer approaches. Telling people the personal use of air conditioning during a heatwave is frowned upon.

          ‘Where are the rest, or are they too scared to comment?’

          Lets not worry about them, their days are numbered, you are a first class political reporter on this platform and that is all that matters.

          111

        • #
          Dennis

          I will not stand for socialism masquerading as environmentalism – PM Abbott 2015

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          • #
            Mark M

            Sadly, for Australia, he did stand for it.
            And still does:

            Nov 16, 2016, the Bolt Report
            TA, 6.45sec: “The abbott govt was prepared to commit to a 26-28% reduction in emissions.”
            AB: “Weren’t you wrong.”
            TA: “And, I did that Andrew, because I am convinced that we can do that in ways that don’t damage our economy.”
            https://www.whooshkaa.com/episode/?id=89817

            41

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              TdeF

              Abbott’s direct action was simply that, growing trees to capture carbon and green the country. He was right. It works.

              So Malcolm Turnbull abandoned it and replaced directly with Green party policies. As Abbott said, when did the Liberal party take its energy policies from the Greens?

              Direct Action was clever as the Greens do not really want a Green Australia. They want an end to mining, industry and farming and cheap coal electricity. Their RET is killing us. In the small scale ret, STCs, solar panel customers are credited with 15 years carbon savings in cash. Why are we Australians paying for this? Fifteen years savings in CO2 at $89 a KW hr. That can amount to a gift of thousands of dollars of our money to suppliers of Chinese solar panels. Why?

              We are being betrayed, deceived by our politicians at every level. There is only one Green member of the Democratic House of Representatives out of 200, but Malcolm’s Liberals are slaves to Green policies, as he has amply demonstrated in killing Direct Action.

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                TdeF

                Sorry $89/Mwhr. STCs and LGCs are now comparaible and a typical household could easily use a few MHhr per year, so thousands of dollars today for CO2 saved fifteen years into the future. Meanwhile the solar cells take up to 2 1/2 year to achieve CO2 savings overall, so the nett result is that we Australians are paying a fortune to dramatically increase CO2 today with subsidized CO2 hungry solar panels. That is theft.

                101

              • #
                Timo Soren

                2.5 years isn’t even ball park!

                the nrel.gov has the quote:
                Reaping the environmental benefits of solar energy requires spending energy
                to make the PV system. But as this graphic shows, the investment is small.
                Assuming 30-year system life, PV systems will provide a net gain of 26 to
                29 years of pollution-free and greenhouse-gas-free electrical generation.

                And this is the from a pro-warmist source saying we will REAP THE BENEFITS,
                one year before the end of it’s life. Let alone a consideration on the ROI financially.

                Plus the added risk to home fires and to firemen who might go on the roofs.

                31

              • #
                Graeme No.3

                TdeF:

                Average usage is between 4.3 and 6.5MWh per annum. At those rates the owner is paying out $383 to $578 p.a. but you have to add GST to that, plus any ‘administrative charges’ from the Retailer. So the average homeowner is probably paying out between $480 and $726 per annum for little benefit.

                21

              • #
                TdeF

                Graham No.3, if I real the STC rules correctly, the installer/home owner creates STCs for 15 years of between $480 and $726 per annum, in advance. That is an amount of $8,000 cash, generally signed over to the installer. This is real money paid by our electricity bills. It is not only a CARBON TAX, it is a 15 years into the future CARBON TAX paid today.

                41

              • #
                Graeme No.3

                TdeF:

                I am not sure but I think the STC and LGC are different. LGC – Large scale Generation Certificates – are the ones for turbines and traded at $86-90. NOTE they are based on the amount of generation sold.

                The STC – Small scale Technology Certificates are for anything under (approx.) 100kWk. I think the latter trade at a good deal less, possibly $39. The number issued is based on the nominal capacity of the PV solar panels which are assumed to remain in their pristine state for 15 years. Also you would need enough capacity in PV solar to cover your usage to get your dollar figures.
                A rough calculation says my 2.8kV panels generate 4.1 MWh per annum or about $2400. You can see why all solar PV installers want you to assign the STC to them.

                40

            • #
              Egor the One

              The problem is the party, not Abbott.

              Even as PM he has to appease his party, just as Turnbull has to.

              The problem is too many closet leftoids in the LNP, and i suspect many with intermittent toy power commercial interests, just like that dud J.Hewson(loser of the unloserable election to P.Keating,king of the banana republic).

              31

              • #

                See my comment #1.1.5 above. The problem is with the science, believed by all in positions of authority or influence (including the Weather Channel, and virtually every celebrity on the planet). Slow-motion mass suicide (“slow-motion train wreck” is not graphic enough).

                And there is simply not enough prison space–or insane asylum space either–to fit in all those who should be there because of this.

                41

          • #
            PeterS

            Sadly though much of the Australian voters are by still voting for either of the two major parties.

            21

            • #
              TdeF

              If Abbott was leader again, the coalition would come back from the dead under Malcolm, who is more Green and left than the Greens. As for turning the Snowy Mountain into a giant water driven battery, words fail.

              131

              • #
                Graeme No.3

                TdeF:

                Extra pumped storage is a good idea as it helps conventional generation (including nuclear) which we would probably increase into the future. So anything done there wouldn’t be wasted. Unfortunately MT still thinks that it is to make more renewables possible.

                33

              • #
                Egor the One

                Even if Abbott was to return as PM, he is still bound by the traitorous closet leftoids in his party, which is the reason he was ousted in the first place.

                Remember,was also just in time for the Paris CAGW true b’lvers hajj, just as Monckton predicted some 9 months beforehand, and also with the rushed appointment of Malcolm’s buddy ‘The Foinkel’ as chief CAGW propagandist as further icing on the global warming cake .

                The coalition is full of closet leftoids, and needs a thorough cleanout.
                If not they’re finished.

                Personally i think they are irredeemable especially in the short term, regardless who they stick up front as mannequin.
                Their only saving grace is that as bad as they are,they are still better than Carbon Bill’s ALP economic misfits !

                51

              • #

                Has MT’s recent Snowy 2 replaced his previous North Qld. coal plant thought bubble? Are both bubbles still up on the table or has the coal plant been pushed off and possibly run over by a bus?
                You never know with this bloke.

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              • #
                Robert Rosicka

                Spot on Egor , the only way to drain our swamp is to find someone willing to pull the plug and it won’t be a lib , lab or green that’s for sure .
                While her hearts in the right place Hanson like Abbott only have to open their mouths to push voters the wrong way .

                10

              • #
                Analitik

                Unfortunately MT still thinks that it is to make more renewables possible.

                MT also continues to believe in CST and CAGW. He’s only acting conservative due to unrest in the backbench.

                20

            • #
              Geoffrey Williams

              They only see black and white and cannot discern the gray.
              GeoffW

              10

        • #
          Ted O'Brien

          “At least Gottliebson is saying something’. Yes, even if it does all sound a bit slippery, it introduces a very useful line of thinking.

          Now he should have a word in Arthur Sinodinos’s ear.

          Then we should ask the Liberal Party why Arthur is there anyway.

          20

    • #

      Aston Martin is in the extreme end of the luxury car market. Doubtless, there are enough rich idiots out there who would think that it is cool to drive a car with incredible (electric) acceleration in a 50km zone, but that is not you or I.

      In the real world, diesel and petrol hold a 50 times advantage by weight against lithium batteries – when it comes to storing energy. Electric motors are lighter than internal combustion engines, but that is of little import.

      So yes, that Aston Martin guy is right, but he is answering the wrong questions.

      BTW, Mr David Brown (that is where the DB comes from) used to invite out a beautiful Danish girl who lived in the same house as me in London back in 1973. It was only much later that I realised that she was an escort. :)

      31

      • #
        Willard

        In the real world of 2017 petrol now holds an advantage of less than 10 over Lithium batteries to move a vehicle the same distance, the relevance is of little importance as electric vehicles may contain excess weight in batteries but alternatively save weight by not having an internal combustion engine and all the associated parts required.

        013

        • #
          Graeme No.3

          Petrol 10 times better? Yes, the energy density is right. What happens if someone comes up with a lighter IC engine? Or even coupling a Stirling engine with a hybrid battery such as the enthusiast in the news recently betting he could drive across the USA on a single tank of fuel?

          30

        • #
          Robert Rosicka

          Dullards back , kindergarten excursion over is it ? Does your mommy and daddy know your trolling the internet when you should be asleep , its way past your bedtime .

          10

          • #
            Willard

            Nice to hear from you Robert, still see you have nothing useful to add, stick to the name calling if it makes you feel good.

            01

            • #
              Forrest Gardener

              Geez Willard. Read what you wrote again before suggesting that somebody else has nothing useful to add.

              10

        • #
          AndyG55

          Tell us Willard, do you own an electric car as your only vehicle?

          If not, why not?

          10

          • #

            They are all trying to tell you that the electric car takes electricity, which batteries only store, not create. And the needed electricity is facing “energy crisis”, as Jo Nova’s article above is all about. The insane Australian powers-that-be are literally “turning off the spigot”, right now, for electric cars.

            40

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      Actually it occurs to me we can hang the pollies by their won green promises – namely without decent stable power, you cant have “green” electric cars…..

      Damned if you do, damned if you dont…..oh the delicious irony of the green lunacy….

      131

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        Just so its clear, “hang” in my comment above doesnt mean literally, it is meant figuratively….

        21

    • #
      Willard

      The normal distance travelled in Australia averages 40kms a day Ross, why can’t an electric car manage that? Jaguars first attempt at an EV the ipace will have a range of 500kms.

      225

      • #
        gnome

        What’s “normal” about a distance of 40Kms a day?
        I’ll be doing about 50Kms today and then about 400Kms on each of the next four days. Later this month I will be doing a couple of 1250Km days, which is a pattern I follow about four times a year.
        Everyone’s transport needs are their own affair. Some will be satisfied with electric vehicles, most won’t. It will be just another freedom lost when we all have to conform to 40Kms a day.

        161

      • #
        KinkyKeith

        Why pay twice as much as you need to just so you can be pretending to ” save the planet”?

        When the political elites from big business, big unions and big hard laba can skin us without going to war:

        We know they’ve won.

        Welcome to the land of the serfs, at least in past centuries people KNEW why they were in slavery, not so now.

        When taxes run out just make the plebs work a few years more and borrow the gap.

        Mind the gap.

        KK

        91

      • #
        Geoffrey Williams

        Willard,
        If these EV’s are to be green they have to be charged with part-time energy from the ‘turbines on poles’ or from suburban roof top solar. Is that correct?
        If so how would you suggest we achieve that end? Bear in mind that all our fossil power is to be shut down. Please give us an insight into what you see as the future of energy supply in Australia?
        GeoffW

        82

        • #
          Willard

          First point is Geoff is EVs will never be fully green, just like any vehicle there’s always going to be some enviromental impact, anyone who has a problem with that better get used to walking everywhere. Is an EV more sustainable than the ICE its replacing? Yes, even with coal power? Yes, the process of transporting and refining oil is energy intensive, then we put the petrol/ diesel that’s only 45% efficient under the best conditions.

          111

          • #
            KinkyKeith

            NO.

            11

          • #
            Geoffrey Williams

            Willard thanks for your reply. Well at least your being honest and you have the guts to reply.
            Yes there is a place for Electric Vehicles. But the rest of your analysis I am not sure about. . .
            I will get back onto this . . .
            GeoffW

            10

            • #
              Peter C

              “Yes there is a place for Electric Vehicles.”

              Electric has advantages for a glider power source. We need a launch to 2,000ft altitude. That would be enough although a bit more to come home in the event of losing lift would be great.

              Not sure about cars however. The requirements are more stringent. I am sticking with my Ford Territory diesel for the time being.

              20

      • #
        Pauly

        Willard,
        The US venture into electric vehicles shows that their average range is about 125 miles per charge. The infrastructure to effectively support that mode of travel does not exist today. The following link is to an article that discusses those infrastructure requirements:
        http://notrickszone.com/2017/03/22/german-physicist-on-electric-cars-slaying-of-beautiful-hypothesis-by-an-ugly-fact/

        Then there is the issue of the amount of rare earths, toxic minerals and other risks inherent in the manufacture of electric vehicles, all of which make the sustainability of this technology a serious question that has not been addressed. Another case of the solution possibly being worse than the problem it was intended to solve, perhaps?

        132

        • #
          Willard

          Would you like to list all the rare earth metals in a modern electric vehicle Pauly?
          The latest more cost effective EVs are being built with longer ranges, Chevy Bolt (not Volt) 320kms, Renault Zoe 350kms, 2018 Nissan Leaf 400kms, Model 3 400kms and as each year passes the range will increase more.

          19

          • #
            Peter C

            Oh really!

            Tesla model 3 is not even out of the factory.

            I have not seen any comments about range from the other cars you mention. Can you provide anything.

            10

          • #
            James Bradley

            Willard,

            It’s not the ‘rare earths’, it’s not the carbon foot print, and it’s not the CO2 from fossil fuel power stations that is the problem with electric vehicles…

            It’s the Ozone – it’s toxic at 5ppm.

            12

            • #

              Where is such ozone produced? The motors do not even have brushes.

              13

              • #
                James Bradley

                Get with the vibe, Will.

                Now repeat after me:

                Carbon Good – Ozone Bad,

                Carbon Good – Ozone Bad,

                and just like that, you know?

                11

              • #
                KinkyKeith

                And also, battery powered vehicles are the vehicle of choice in nursing homes for the aged.

                Excellent.

                20

            • #
              Willard

              You like to repeat that James,Your point being?

              02

              • #
                Graeme No.3

                Really Willard you are very slow on the up-take even for a troll. Lift your game or we will have to give you the Skeptical Science treatment and not allow you to make comments.

                Also, as further proof of you not really being up to suitable standard even for a troll you haven’t been round the new posting and red thumbed everybody. Slack, very slack Willard!

                20

        • #
          PeterS

          Agree. Meanwhile Germany’s idea to ban cars using the internal combustion engine by 2030 comes with a warning: CO2 emissions will increase as a result due to the extra demand on electricity for charging purposes, which means they have to ramp up the output of Europe’s existing coal and gas fired power stations and build new ones.

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          • #
            OriginalSteve

            When I read dumb ideas like the Germans 2030 ICE ban, its amazing how if you stop banging your head against the wall it hurts a lot less….

            102

            • #
              Willard

              The German ‘ice ban’ is proposed for 2030, 1. 13 years is a long time with regards to automotive developement, 2. The ban would be on sales of new cars, if a German driver bought a new petrol car in 2029 and looked after his vehicle it could last well past 2050, if he doesn’t want an electric car so be it, how much he will have to pay for petrol is another matter.

              26

              • #
                OriginalSteve

                Ice ban is a dumb idea. We have hydrogen as the real challenge to overcome and people keep fiddling around the edges rather than just attacking the problem.

                Mind you, if there truly was CAGW, all parties would be pulling together to solve the problem, not the left trying to sabotage our way of life with stupid and pointless impractical technology.

                10

              • #
                mobihci

                you would think that 13 years is a long time in development, but here we are with ICE sales still at 98.5% of all cars sold around the world last year. so, only a very few are taken in by this scam. since the ev1 20 years ago, little has changed.

                overpriced (and this is the main one by a long shot), low range except now they lie a bit more and instead of fudging range figures by 10 or 20%, they now go for 50 or 100%.

                cant fudge the final cost though, and thats what stops most people buying them. who would buy a small hatch for 40 or 50k when you can get one for half the price? capital costs are high, depreciation fast, never recovered by fuel costs and charge times etc.

                it would be nice to see a viable electric car, but i am not holding my breath. people 20 years ago were saying the ICE was a thing of the past, and that is the reality that renewable protagonists dont seem to acknowledge. you want to claim it is just around the corner, like all this renewable crap.. solar will be cheap as chips they say.. well bs to that. it has barely change the last 20 years too.

                20

              • #
                Rod Stuart

                Hey Willard
                TSLA closed at $254.78 down 1%. My short is making money every day. Are you?

                01

              • #
                Willard

                Good to see you’re making money Rod, it’s handy for buying fuel for your oil burner, the money then eventually ends up going to a good cause-http://fortune.com/2017/02/14/get-ready-for-tesla-taxis-in-dubai/

                11

              • #
                El Kabong

                “Hey Willard
                TSLA closed at $254.78 down 1%. My short is making money every day. Are you?”

                Hi Rod,

                If you had put USD100,000 on Tesla at float you would now be worth USD1,340,947.

                Unhedged, that’s a profit of AUD1,642,360 in less than seven years.

                Keep on shorting, son.

                10

        • #
      • #
        Geoff Sherrington

        Then after 500 km you sit for several hours for a recharge.
        Can you imagine driving Melbourne to Sydney, 880 km.?
        Big stretch Melb to Gundagai, then charge for 4 hours.
        Problem. Your car is not parked under a convenient tree.
        It is one of hundreds to thousands plugged in to the electricity charger at a facility that has not been built yet. The problems just compound, the more you extend the thought process.
        Sure, a majority of vehicles can be electric, the knowledge exists to do that, but people who have done the detailed costing are reluctant to show it. Anything is possible, sometimes at a near-impossible price.
        Geoff

        103

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          • #
            OriginalSteve

            I worry about dumping that much power into a battery so quickly….one day there will be the mother of all fires and some poor innocent will get cooked in a car when the battery goes up…

            55

          • #
            Geoff Sherrington

            Queues,lack of charger points, shuffling your car like at a giant open air movie analog. Finding Gundagai is fully occupied, wondering which next towns along the way will do. Chasing the next town-s charger station, then the next, then running out of batteries and stranded?
            Declining to use the 20 min fast charge because it is on the threshold of permanent battery damage.
            There are more reasons for suspecting the 20 minute charge, perhaps the main one being that it is linked more to advertising electric cars than the reality of engineering life.

            00

            • #
              Willard

              Queues? that’s what you get a service stations when petrol is ten cents cheaper on a Monday morning, over 95% of EV charging is done at home, no queues there Geoff.

              00

        • #
          Ted O'Brien

          No, Geoff. One day somebody will wake up to the fact that batteries can be swapped in 30 seconds.

          20

          • #
            Forrest Gardener

            Really Ted? You can swap the entire battery array for a car in 30 seconds?

            I’d like to see that but I suppose so. After all F1 teams change a set of tyres and fill the car with fuel in less time. So the future is clear. Pit crews in petrol stations. I can picture it now.

            The devil is always in the detail.

            21

            • #
              Ted O'Brien

              Sort of. We have come from the days of bowser attendants to self service. Servos could now greatly enhance their peak hroughput if they had a wandering checkout amongst the bowsers.

              00

      • #
        toorightmate

        Willard old mate.
        You meed either a lot of coal or heaps of wind turbines to charge those 900kg Lithium batteries.
        But why do we bother about details – the Premier of south Australia doesn’t bother about details.
        Willard – I think you are as smart as Jay.

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        • #
          Willard

          Toorightmate old mate you need a lot of energy to run an oil refinery, but why bother with those details, maybe your petrol comes from an oil refinery powered by Unicorn farts.
          Oh and please tell me which electric car has a battery that weighs 900kg?

          28

        • #
          AndyG55

          EV recharge points should only be hooked up to solar and/or wind power.

          Wouldn’t you agree, Willard.

          32

          • #
            Willard

            No, any power will do

            15

            • #
              AndyG55

              Ahh.. so you want the RELIABLITY of fossil fuels.

              Get back to us when you are driving an EV as your only car.!

              22

              • #
                Willard

                Yep, good old Australian sourced electricity while you just keeping sending your petrol money overseas.

                12

              • #
                James Bradley

                Dullard, electric cars don’t stop CO2 and you complain that it’s at 400ppm – how about ozone toxicity at 5ppm.

                Electric motors, generators, tubines = ozone.

                Your dumb green dream is literally a dumb green dream.

                You are killing all life on this planet with ozone.

                31

      • #
        bobl

        Willard, please recharge your brain. Of all the energy use in Australia about half is electricity and half is motor fuel. If EVs were universal then we would need to consistently supply about 2.2 times the amount of electricity we do now (accounting for electrical losses). That 40 minute EV trip represents at least 30kWh! Given the low (99.95% reliable) energy density of unreliables exactly where do you intend to build the extra renewable energy plants to power the EV revolution and how much are you willing to pay for them. Frankly Willard the worlds most critical and limited resource is LAND and you are willing to just wave away millions of square kms of our scarcest resource and dedicate them to your unnecessary flights of fancy. Exactly how selfish are you?

        02

        • #
          Willard

          Bobl, firstly replacing all internal combustion passenger vehicles, short distance trucks, buses and courier vehicles ( commercial vehicles that cover less than 300kms per day and spend a fair bit of time sitting in built up traffic with the engine idling) would be a 15-20 year process, after that time the extra burden on the grid would be no more than 20%, thats absolute worst case situation, if you take into account the energy savings from transporting and refining less oil the impact will be minimal, your 2.2x has absolute no basis.
          An average EV over 40 minutes does NOT consume 30kwh, you are incorrect Bobl and nowhere close, a 40 minute trip at 100kmh consumes approximately 13kwh, at 60kmh the consumption is approx 5kwh, these are not made up figures Bobl, these are FACT.
          Bobl get this EVs are for Greenies only mentality out of your head, read up some real facts on energy usage, charging and modern battery technolodgy.

          10

    • #
      Willard

      Annie
      March 23, 2017 at 9:19 am · Reply
      It IS very narrow…I’ve had a great view across it from Northern Oman. We are very stupid to rely on oil supplies from the ME when we have so much coal and other natural resources available right here.

      Well said Annie, why drive oil burning cars making other countries richer.

      28

      • #
        Annie

        I was talking about using ALL our natural resources W. Don’t use what I said to make a trollish point, thank you. You might like to consider that the people of the ME need to make a living also. I am perfectly happy myself to use petrol and diesel driven cars and have no intention whatsoever ever of acquiring an electric one as I believe, overall, that they are actually MORE polluting thanks to the materials used in their manufacture and maintenance, especially in their batteries. I will not be addressing you further so don’t bother replying.
        No need to feed the trolls…

        84

        • #
          Willard

          Of course those people of the ME need to make a living too, they’re down to the last few billion dollars, of course your money is always welcome-http://www.africanews.com/2017/02/21/saudis-arabia-kicks-off-a-50b-renewable-energy-plan-to-cut-oil-use/ yep, your paying for them to buy solar panels, that must make you all warm and fuzzy Annie.

          27

    • #
      Dave in the States

      For the most part, in most of the world, EV = coal powered.

      I hate to think of a grid on the edge, and without adequate fossil fuel backup, trying to provide consistent charges for a a large fleet of EVs 24/7 even if the infrastructure existed. We don’t need to worry about that though, as it is highly unlikely that EVs will supersede internal combustion powered vehicles even in part. EVs just don’t have much appeal. EVs will never be much more than a novelty.

      52

      • #
        Willard

        Dave from the states why do have a problem with coal?

        19

        • #
          el gordo

          Willard you are the only person here who has a problem with coal.

          CO2 does not cause global warming, does this revelation make any impression on your viewpoint?

          21

        • #
          OriginalSteve

          I love the dumb sticker i see from time to time that screams cluelessness ” fossil fools”.

          I know who the fools are….

          30

        • #
          Dave in the States

          I have no problem with coal or any other hydrocarbon fuel source. After all what’s not to like about today’s internal combustion powered vehicles? They are efficient, powerful, convenient, long ranged, relatively cost effective, and clean. They empower the middle class and poor and give them much independence and freedom, as well as enjoyment. They are essential to modern culture, modern growing economies, and ever higher standards of living. 99.9% of what comes out of the exhaust pipes are harmless H2O and CO2. They are much safer than ever before, as long as poor public policies such as CAFE standards don’t force them to down size too much.

          I suspect that 100 years from now that coal will still be mined in part as source for cheap, synthetic, liquid, hydro carbon fuels, to burn in super efficient internal combustion engines.

          10

          • #
            Dave in the States

            As a side note I don’t really have anything against EVs either. If someone likes them and can afford them, and can use them, then more power to them. Nonetheless, I oppose market manipulations to make them competitive in the market place, subsidies, and onerous regulations and laws, and mandates, against their competitors.

            01

          • #
            Willard

            If the tailpipes only produce harmless exhaust feel free to sit in a closed garage next to your car with the engine running Dave.

            11

            • #
              Dave in the States

              Are you innumerate?

              01

            • #
              bobl

              Oh the scientific nonsense, cars produce carbon MONOXIDE which is TOXIC but which is NOT a significant GHG and the burning of the fuel in a closed space depletes the OXYGEN – I could sit all day with the engine running in a closed garage if the car emitted only CO2 and didn’t deplete the oxygen. Learn just a little bit of science please.

              02

              • #
                Willard

                But the exhaust DOESN’T emit only CO2, it emits so much more,it is NOT harmless, it is not even 99.9% harmless-http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2017/02/17/trio-die-tragic-water-tank-accident-nsw-farm

                00

              • #
                bobl

                Still not relevant – the danger from coresiding in your garage with a running car has noting to do with CO2. You built a straw man. Cars are not particularly dangerous in a ventilated space.

                00

    • #
      Ted O'Brien

      Ross, those top executives are in it for the subsidies. Just ask Warren Buffet. The difference is WB will exit before the subsidies hit the wall.

      31

  • #
    Boyfromtottenham

    At last, an MSM business commentator stops drinking the CAGW kool-aide and starts asking real questions of real experts! Better late than never, Gotti. Now get on the ABC and tell it like it is, if they will let you.

    332

    • #
      jorgekafkazar

      At last the people of OZ will get some action. As we speak, wheels are turning at the highest levels. Within days, the groundwork will be in place. Before summertime, I predict that action will be taken to repeal that law.

      Then back to business as usual, and prepare to blame capitalism when the ultimate failure arrives.

      161

  • #
    Boyfromtottenham

    Oh, and many thanks, Joanne for all your good work with this website.

    331

  • #
    BernardP

    The Germans have found the solution… Turning a coal mine into energy storage for wind power.

    http://vrzone.com/articles/germany-converts-coal-mine-energy-storage/124480.html

    The madness seems unstoppable.

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  • #
    pattoh

    Will Malcolm Roberts or Cory Bernardi run with it?

    Will the MSM cover/run with it?

    Funny how Pyne specifically fingered Shorton in everything but name a couple of days ago & the MSM is effectively STUM on a yarn which would have him tarred, feathered & excommunicated from the ALP.[ if not prosecuted]

    If Turnbull & his strategists really wanted to do something for the nation on the power issue; he would MANDATE care & maintenance on any power plant until it had been completely replaced by a stable reliable alternative.

    The vandalizing of closed but potentially operational infrastructure for making gestures/political statements is the stuff of treason.

    Whether the infrastructure belongs to the States or has been leased or sold to private interests should be immaterial.

    Further, he could specifically weave in section 109 of the constitution to over-ride the states playing leverage games & party politics.

    When will the turkeys stop voting for peacocks who promise “all our Christmases will come at once”?

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    • #
      KinkyKeith

      Patton

      You got it.

      The MANDATE paragraph.

      Until it is demonstrated that the replacement “works” at equivalent cost.

      No subsidies.

      KK

      91

    • #
      Egor the One

      ‘The vandalizing of closed but potentially operational infrastructure for making gestures/political statements is the stuff of treason.’

      This should be stamped on the foreheads of our sad complicit so called leaders followed by their dismissal and prosecution for criminal negligence and dereliction of duty, just for starters !

      51

  • #

    Given that we’re well prepared for camping out several weeks at a time, it looks like we’ll be doing that more or less as a permanent thing in Victoristan this year.

    I’ve given up on the idea of a diesel generator, for if the entire state goes out, the only thing that we really need going is the refrigerator.

    This reminds me of the preparations that people had to do in WWII, only they weren’t fighting the Green Blob, it was an enemy that you could fight back.

    180

  • #
    Another Ian

    Jo

    How about this for a way to fix the problem?


    Webley Silvernail | March 22, 2017 1:43 PM | Reply

    For Ontarians, the income tax forms include an area where you can “donate” extra cash (ie. pay even more taxes than required) to help the government with its essential duties – chief among which seems to be turning your dollars into toilet paper. They even have a list of tick boxes, so you can select exactly which black hole you’d like to toss your cash into for destruction.

    One wonders who’d be stupid enough to actually do this, but then, one recalls that there’s an outfit called Bullfrog Power in Ontario, which will sell you certifiably “green” power at rather more than the already exorbitant rates that the Ontario government charges. Somehow, there seems to be enough of these virtue-signalling morons around to make the company a viable concern. Go figure.”

    From comments at

    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/2017/03/budget-day.html#comments

    61

  • #
    Malrob

    The Dutch are one of the largest users of electric cars and I understand they have built new coal-fired power stations to provide enough electricity to run them. And maybe produce more emissions than if they had stayed with petrol vehicles.

    63

  • #
    Robdel

    There is nothing more convincing than a full blown crisis that will get the politicians and the people who vote them in out of their torpor. So I say bring on the crisis and put an end to cagw madness which has prevented the installation of modern coal fired power stations.

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    • #
      TdeF

      It is amazing that the aptly named Weatherill is desperate to win the next election, so his is spending all the money they don’t have on building a fake power system to prevent blackouts. What is saving him is that the big businesses have stopped or scaled back or left the state already, hiding the need for power. However he must be terrified of the closure of Hazelwood, as that alone saved him numerous times.

      What puzzles me is that Labor do not just blame the Federal coalition and their RET legislation? It would be a cheap shot but it would work. I guess the fact that the general public is unaware of the RET devastation means they can continue shutting power stations while blaming the Coalition for the 1990s privatization. People are prepared to believe that private companies paid billions for power stations and made huge profits from tripling power costs and are now prepared to turn them off permanently and blow them up. Except it does not make sense.

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        TdeF

        I was somewhat puzzled at the WA Liberals trying at the last minute to sell power stations to fund their State government when all the existing private owners are getting out? Who would buy a government power station when there is draconian legislation in place which gives $2 in cash to windmill operators for every $1 paid for coal or gas or diesel power? The $2 is in addition to any payment for power. It is a carbon tax.

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    • #
      Leonard Lane

      Romdel, it took 8 years of Obama to wake up the a near majority of the people and some of the Republicans and give us President Trump. He became president through his campaign and those who could be enlightened of the obvious state of our nation.
      I won’t detail all of the Obama Administration’s stupid, wrong headed, anti-democratic and anti-American activities. To do so might take a dozen or more pages for the most harmful policies and actions.
      But Obama did state “…electricity prices must, of necessity, skyrocket…” and he made that happen with renewable energy schemes.
      I do not know the answer for SA or all of Australia. But I bet vast numbers of Australians know. However, I will hazard a guess. Here goes my best guess. Voters must throw the bums out of state and national government.

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      TdeF

      There is nothing wrong with the ‘old’ power stations. They work fine. This is a public utility, not a pleasure palace. THe age does not matter if the output is clean plentiful power but there is an efficiency question which is far more important than any idea that CO2 is heating the planet uncontrollably or that we can even change the amount of CO2 in the air.

      So called pollution dissipates naturally and as 98% of all CO2 is in the water, does not matter. Consider the beaches cleaned after the Exxon Valdez disaster at a cost of billions. There were many more beaches as covered in oil and sludge. However they recovered to pristing just as fast as the heavily polluted ones. The bird life and sea life recovered too, as always happens. Nature recovers its balance and despite the size of the disaster, on the natural scale it was nothing much.

      CO2 pollution? Rubbish. CO2 is to animals what water is to fish. It is absurd to complain. If you want a true hot house gas, the major one is water. Just look at those clouds in the sky. They determine how much solar energy hits the planet and how much stays, not CO2. Then as 75% of the planet is covered in water or ice, CO2 is a very poor cousin to H2O, the other combustion product.
      So let’s complain about the H2O released by Hazelwood. It makes more sense. That really is the pollution and what is seen coming out of the chimneys.

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      • #

        TdeF mentions this: (my bolding here)

        The age does not matter if the output is clean plentiful power but there is an efficiency question which is far more important than any idea that CO2 is heating the planet uncontrollably or that we can even change the amount of CO2 in the air.

        Something I’ve been watching while doing these 24 days of data comparison for the Hazelwood closure.

        There have been days when Wind has generated more power, but so far, after 24 days, the Capacity Factor (CF) for all Australian wind is 29.9%, right on the average currently for wind power, and in Victoria, it’s 24.7%

        If you use Hazelwood’s original 1964 total Nameplate of 1600, then Hazelwood, after 24 days, is currently delivering at a CF of 81.6% for a 53 year old plant. However, the Maximum output over the last 24 days has been a total of 1380MW, and using that as the effective Nameplate, this gives Hazelwood a CF of 94.6%.

        Wind Nameplate is 3900MW, almost three times Hazelwood’s current Nameplate of 1380MW and yet Hazelwood has delivered 10.6% more power than Wind.

        That is the disadvantage of wind. You never know when the good days will be, and even on those good days, power is still up and down, while even an old coal fired plant just hums along at its maximum ALL the time., highlighting TdeF’s efficiency phrase.

        Tony.

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    KinkyKeith

    Mob rule doesn’t work and we must have a parliamentary system that debates this crisis NOW!

    We need real, to the point, effective, measured, accountable leadership NOW.

    We need to get rid of all currently involved politicians NOW.

    Remove the heads of S.A. VIC and our nation: Turnbull.

    So far we have had Terry McCrann, Robert G telling it like it is but there is still Alan Kohler with a huge audience.

    The RET is at the core of this and I’m embarrassed to say that despite being vitally interested in restoring reality to the CAGW debate, I had missed it’s connection to Al Gore and Clive Palmer.

    My gut churns at the damage done to our country over the last 10 years and am especially irate at the extra $800 a year in electricity payments stolen from my family.

    No doubt this cash went somewhere “useful”.

    KK

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      PeterS

      Yes mob rule doesn’t work – that’s what we’ve seen for a long time now. The mob (public) keep voting for parties that are deliberately forcing coal fired power stations to be financially untenable leading to their gradual closure and zero chance of new ones being built here. Meanwhile hundreds are being built all over the rest of the world. This proves Australian voters are fools.

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    TedM

    It appears that Govts. so often choose scientific advisers that share their ideology.

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  • #
    Timo Soren

    I think we need to start a little (highly negative) contest as to “When with SA have it first post-Hazelwood load-shedding” and “When will SA have it first blackout?”

    It could be as simple as date of…

    I’d guess by May 15th for load shedding. But would have to research weather patterns for the rest.

    91

    • #
      Rick Will

      June 18 2017

      41

    • #
      Leonard Lane

      April 25, 2017 ANZAC and my birthday too.

      31

    • #
      crakar24

      It will be in winter, mornings tend to be very cold and still so no wind, plenty of gas fired heaters going leading to a gas shortage for our 49 year old thermal gas plant and our OCGT plant currently covered in balls of moth.

      31

      • #
        Analitik

        Spot on. The closure of Northern led to massive prices spikes in July last year under the conditions you mentioned and with Hazelwood gone, load shedding will be a certainty at some point.

        10

    • #
      Ian Hill

      I’ve always been an optimist, so I’ll say early April 2017, let’s make it the 4th.

      I never win these sorts of things though!

      30

    • #
      David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

      My pessimism exceeds yours…
      April 3, at 4:30 pm
      Cheers,
      Dave B

      30

      • #
        Timo Soren

        The only thing I can say about such a guess, say in the scenario of a football game, that the first goal will be scored on the second touch, ballsy guess. Probably wrong but ballsy.

        00

  • #
    Boambee John

    Jo,

    Unless private prosecutions can be launched under that legislation, which I doubt, nothing will happen.

    The protected class will protect their own interests.

    111

  • #
    Peter C

    I have been alerted that in the 1995 Federal Criminal Code under Section 137.1 in Chapter 7 there is a section entitled ‘Good administration of government’.

    Who will bring the prosecutions under this legislation? I can’t see the Federal Police taking any action.
    The AG also seems unlikely to act, although he is probably authorised to do so.

    51

  • #
    William

    I haven’t read the criminal code, other than a quick look at 137.1 and 137.2 – has anyone had time to see if it applies to members of government commissions etc? If so would it be possible to prosecute Flannery for misleading information that has caused the waste of vast amounts of money?

    61

    • #
      Greg Cavanagh

      If a jury decides guilt there may be a slim chance of that. If it’s declared by a judge only, I’d say slim to none.

      Flannery will do what they all do, blame those who advised him that they gave him the best advise at the time. Not guilty of “wilfully” misleading, and that’s the crux of the problem right there.

      21

  • #
    Robert Rosicka

    When was the last time a politician from any political party was jailed ? Plenty of misgoings on with entitlements and more , some even have a very dodgy past history but few if any do any time in jail over it .
    I remember seeing a question years ago about an organisation that had so many members committing a lot of various c r I m e s and you had to guess the occupation, it was of course politician , must see if I can dig it up .

    32

    • #
      gnome

      I think it was a Queensland pollie last week.
      If you do dig up that bit about pollies doing lots of things wrong at least try to clean up the numbers in it. We have 226 pollies in Canberra, not the 600 or so they have in Washington.

      01

    • #
      Allen Ford

      Eddie Obeid, for one, Robert. He’s still there despite heroic effort to escape, legally!

      The Appeal Judges awarded costs against him, to the tune of over $2 mill, for good measure.

      31

    • #
      Forrest Gardener

      Gordon Nuttall did actual jail time not so long ago.

      10

  • #

    We know that wind+solar = gas+diesel. Which is why Big Oil gets right behind the War on Coal.

    Here’s a very critical question: can we assume that oil and gas prices will stay at the current long-term low levels? There’s a lot of oil and gas NOT peaking all over the world, and a high price point would be hard to sustain from a point of view of new tech, new reserves etc. But does that mean a very high price point is impossible?

    Trouble over the Strait of Hormuz? Russia turning off the taps or having its taps turned off by war, terror, boycott etc? War, regime change in the Middle East, Eurasia or Central Asia? Sea lane controversy to our north? African turmoil affecting even French uranium supplies? I could go on…

    Now, imagine having no coal power and relying on solar and wind when the oil and gas prices move up in a big way. Some countries, like Germany, only pretend to shut down coal (and nukes), and for some bizarre reason the corporate media pretend not to notice. But Australia really seems bent on a shutdown of coal, despite the quality and quantity of our magnificent reserves.

    So imagine being without coal power and relying on hyper-expensive oil and gas to supplement all that feeble, diffuse, intermittent green junk.

    Has anyone talked about the extreme hazards of being without coal power when those prices jump?

    That Strait of Hormuz will start to look mighty narrow.

    171

    • #
      Annie

      It IS very narrow…I’ve had a great view across it from Northern Oman. We are very stupid to rely on oil supplies from the ME when we have so much coal and other natural resources available right here.

      101

      • #

        Annie, Qatar and thus a quarter of the world’s LNG relies on that Strait, every single day. Short term closure or long term tension will certainly affect world price and supply of gas, as well as Kuwaiti oil etc. Plans to bypass by cutting a canal across Saudi Arabia then to the sea via Oman or Yemen have proven hugely expensive and impractical. Not to mention the extra wars and repressions required.

        The great dream of dismantling Syria to make a Kurd-free Sunni pipeline corridor from Qatar and the other states into Turkey has failed. And if it had all worked? That would be a lot of power for an unstable Turkey with neo-Ottoman tendencies.

        Without coal, far away Australia will be at the mercy of every development in the unending Cold War between the Saudis and Iran. And the rest of the cold wars, pipeline wars, border wars, sea lane wars and hot wars. Yet many of our leaders and most our our “living treasure” people seem happy for us to walk right into this door.

        What worries me most is that few even think of what an oil/gas shock would do to a coal-free Australia, especially if Asian sea lanes are contested. Short of war and invasion, it would be the nastiest pickle imaginable. Renewable-laden Spain can always buy nuke energy from France. We can’t just plug into NZ or Antarctica.

        Of course, we’ll always have Timmy’s Geothermia.

        91

      • #
        pattoh

        SMDS – Shell Middle Distillate Syntheses [ Shell proprietary method of synthesis of fuel from LNG ] Why is it not a condition of Gorgon?

        21

      • #
        Dennis

        Remember part of the Howard Government’s greenhouse gas emissions lowering plans was greater use of Liquid Petroleum Gas as fuel for motor vehicles, Compressed Natural Gas can also be used. And if a vehicle is equipped with a gas needle injection system and properly tuned performace loss is very small. Diesel engines can run on a diesel/gas mixture. And diesel fuel can be produced from coal.

        The emissions from gas are low.

        21

    • #
      David Maddison

      Politicians don’t have any foresight or any clue.

      Hazelwood closing will seriously weaken Australia.

      A catastrophic increase in the price of oil will kill us.

      Frankly, I wish I was born an American.

      91

    • #

      Few Australians seem to realize that 70% of the oil we consume comes from elsewhere. The Asia-Pacific (including Australia) region imports 10mbd – nearly all from the Middle East and Africa.

      If the Americans finally get around to doing what they have been threatening to do for over 30 years and attack Iran, the straits of Hormuz will be cut. If the USA loses a single aircraft carrier, that would be the end of the hegemony and the USD.

      Take a look at this picture. The woman is in Iran and putting out her washing. The Aircraft carrier is well within Iranian territorial waters. All we get in the mainstream media is bleating about Iran’s fake “aggression”

      Iranian Sea Vessels Greet US Aircraft Carrier in Strait of Hormuz

      21

  • #
    PeterS

    It is time for someone with lots of money to use the criminal code and prosecute all politicians who are deliberately destroying our base load power generation systems – that pretty much covers almost all of them on all sides. Such a major action would be a game changer and would easily wake the public up to reality. It will also short circuit the global warming nonsense – win win.

    31

  • #
    David Maddison

    Have we got this the wrong way around?

    Fair enough, question the lunacy of windmills and the world’s highest carbon tax.

    But the fundamental issue is surely to hammer away at the fact that there is no CAGW and if we can convince the sheeple, politicians and those that tell politicians what to think, the whole problem melts away.

    We should make sure all the guilty parties are prosecuted, however and never forget what they did.

    42

  • #
    Robert Rosicka

    Interesting article on “citizens referenda”
    http://www.theindependentaustralian.com.au/node/34

    01

  • #
    John Smith

    Politicians being frightened into doing the right thing?
    When has that happened?
    Usually they’re scared into hiding, or fleeing to someplace without extradition.

    31

  • #
    Mark M

    Pity the children’s children, who have been educated brainwashed …

    “He is only 10 years old but Randwick’s Indigo Kohn is already standing up to climate change.

    Indigo is Earth Hour’s 2017 youth ambassador as the campaign enters its 10th year.

    “The world is just going to become bleak and boring if we don’t stop (climate change),” he said.

    World Wide Fund chief executive Dermot O’Gorman said today’s children knew more about climate change than any other generation did at their age.

    “Since they were born, our children have been taught to be active recyclers, aware of renewable power alternatives, and informed about the effects of pollution on our planet.”

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/newslocal/southern-courier/lights-out-for-climate-change-as-earth-hour-turns-10/news-story/44934984c2ab23e1b968d934e6bcc844

    Watch the video@link for more …

    Just tell them to go live in South Australia if they want more ‘earth hours’.

    41

  • #
    ROM

    I will simply come back to a comment I made on Jo’s “Hazelwood Countdown” post.

    We have at least two generations here in Australia who have absolutely NO conception of, NO idea, NO knowledge at all of what it is like to have NO energy, NO power for every minute of every day.

    Until those blessed, energy sated generations feel the full effects and experiences that go with a complete loss of that civilisation creating energy and power, they will in their total ignorance and chutzpah continue right on with their lives until the lights go out, not once, not twice but for a time that will seem like an eternity in a hades for those who have NEVER ever experienced life without that always there, always on, ever available cheap energy in volumes that seem to have no limits.

    Energy that was ALWAYS there at the flick of simple switch. Energy that they never ever gave a thought to as to where it came from , never gave a thought on how it was created, never gave a thought to on what would be the consequences if that energy was no longer there whenever they flicked that switch.

    Only when those generations who have been so blessed by the always available copious cheap energy over their entire lives are finally derived of access to this energy that they have ALWAYS taken for granted, will they and the responsible politicals and academic and bureaucratic elitist classes suddenly realise that their future and even their lives are at a serious risk of being brought to an abrupt end.

    Only then will we see what will now be an immense and incredibly costly crash program to restore Australia’s energy supplies to their former standards.

    171

    • #
      Another Ian

      ROM

      Somewhat o/t

      The other day I realised that a Tilley light is a hybrid.

      Uses kerosene and manpower to run the pressure pump

      20

      • #
        Robert Rosicka

        If you’ve got a Tilley lamp keep it handy .

        00

        • #
          Another Ian

          Got a couple – no spare “generators*” for them though

          *To avoid confusion these are part of the fuel system on those lights – correctly “vapouriser” as per below.

          Well there is hope – they’re still in business! But parts aren’t cheap.

          http://tilleylamp.co.uk/lamps

          00

  • #
    Rod Stuart

    1984 and Big Brother is watching you.
    China is already a technocracy.
    Big Brother watches even as you sit on the throne.

    21

  • #
    Faye Busch

    Please God look after Trump. He is the only one powerful enough to break the nexus of the CAGW hold on the world.

    111

  • #
    David Maddison

    Good rant by Andrew Bolt. And does anyone want to spend $8000 to go to Cape York with Flim Flammery to learn about the devestating effects of climate change?

    https://www.facebook.com/theboltreport/videos/409255769432558/

    42

  • #
    Clever Geda

    Time to start compiling a public register of evidence to be used in the future prosecution of the individuals and organisations that have destroyed our children’s future.

    11

  • #
    Louis Hissink

    Once they can’t charge up their smartphones and tablet pc’s, electric cars etc, the penny might drop.

    41

  • #
    bullocky

    Ross – ‘… normal distances travelled….’

    Willard – ‘… averages 40kms a day Ross,…..’

    As always, WATCH THE PEA!

    31

  • #

    If politicians don’t understand the significance of these two charts, we are doomed.

    01

  • #

    “Wind Energy Europe – September-October 2015″

    http://www.euanmearns.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/sdufgsStacked.png

    “Germany’s Electricity Production by Source for December 2017″

    http://qbusters.com.au/germ2.jpg

    If politicians don’t understand the significance of these two charts, we are doomed.

    21

  • #
    TdeF

    An aside to explain how the politicians and Green are getting away with the destruction of this country.

    Firstly, who reads Acts like the Renewable Energy (Electricity) Act 2000 and its revision. It is not even called the RET and Carbon is never mentioned. It is one of the most deceitful pieces of legislation in history, a huge carbon tax designed to make coal, diesel, petrol and gas electrical power generation not viable. It is working well, as intended. We now cannot even afford our own gas.

    Secondly, in the Herald Sun this morning by Anthony Galloway, “CUT OFF AT THE STEM”. (Science Technology Engineering and Mathematics)

    With non scientists like Tim Flannery lecturing us on Nuclear Power and hot rocks ($93million wasted by the Rudd government)

    no one is doing science
    Since 2001 to 2015. High school students Advanced maths 16% down to 6%, Physics 25% TO 6%.
    Even now 57% of current engineers in Australia are born overseas. At this rate, we will be importing all engineers in a decade. People like Tony from Oz will not exist.

    No wonder voters do not understand Carbon is an element of the periodic table and we are made from it. No wonder Greenpeace actually banned Chlorine, another element.

    Carbon Dioxide is in abundant supply with 98% being dissolved in the ocean and the slight increase in the air over 100 years is not due to cars and planes. Some of the alleged experts like Gore and Flannery are essayists with no hard science training. Worse, even the Enlightenment is vanishing, with people being told what to think on every subject by journalists who are ignorant, non scientific, innumerate and lawyers and politicians who are worse. A scientist is a sceptic by training. No wonder sceptics can be vilified and fake scientists put on pedestals.

    So people are told the collapse of electricity is a result of the oppression of the masses by rich private companies and Weatherill will take everyone’s cash and build a new gas power station when one owned privately is sitting idle because they cannot afford to turn it on with government taxes.

    Remove the RET. Please. Before we have the country place at total standstill because even then politicians will start building giant batteries like Malcolm’s Snowy Scheme. Then even the foreign engineers cannot help us. I hope you are teaching your children how to serve at tables and respect foreign cultures. Learning Chinese and Japanese might be handy too, if only to talk to your engineers.

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  • #
    David Maddison

    Concerning electric vehicles: They can never in principle match chemically fueled vehicles simply because the energy density of chemical fuels is much greater than the energy density that can be achieved with electrochemical reactions. It is similar to comparing low energy density “renewables” to high energy density coal or nuclear plant. The low density system requires a lot of “stuff” to produce or harvest energy.

    112

    • #
      Willard

      Incorrect, energy density plays only a small part when comparing a modern electric vehicle verses a similar size and performance modern petrol vehicle.

      19

      • #
        Dave

        Willard

        You seem to forget the constituents of the EV batteries.
        What will the impact of the mining and giant expense of obtaining
        Cobalt
        Lithium
        Graphite
        ETC

        These three will be out of reach of 99.9% of the population!

        It’s a GREEN dream mate. This is worse than coal, iron ore, nuclear, or oil!

        You have to gain a new look into the stupidity of EV.

        MINE, MINE, MINE
        WIND, WIND, WIND
        SOLAR, SOLAR, SOLAR
        WAVE, WAVE, WAVE
        BATTERY, BATTERY, BATTERY

        What do you think will happen to this planet with GREEN ENGINEERS in charge?
        It’s madness Willard, just crazy!

        It’s the same people that ripped out weeping willows off the banks of the Inglis River!
        Sometimes is work out the cause than react to the problem!

        The GREEN movement is no longer concerned about the environment!

        61

        • #
          Willard

          Dave, if you’re concerned with the impact of mining you need to walk everywhere then.

          15

          • #
            Robert Rosicka

            And if you were concerned with CAGW you would be walking everywhere and a Vegan and living without electricity or modern conveniences , you wouldn’t own any electronic devices so we know you’re a hypocrite like the rest of your faith .

            30

          • #
            Dave

            AH Willard

            So what is the problem that we need to mine huge areas & volumes for batteries, Wind Mills & solar etc but stop mining coal and drilling for Oil and gas?
            Is it only CO2 and CAGW Willard?

            Just need to know your thoughts on this?

            40

          • #
            OriginalSteve

            Willard, if youre so concerned, lead by example if you truly are of the green faith and turn of the power to your house, walk everywhere, destroy you mobile phone, eat grass and stay unemployed to reduce your energy footprint…..if you do that, we wont see you on this board anymore and youll have somw cred….

            10

          • #
            OriginalSteve

            Willard, if youre so concerned, lead by example if you truly are of the green faith and turn of the power to your house, walk everywhere, destroy you mobile phone, eat grass and stay unemployed to reduce your energy footprint…..if you do that, we wont see you on this board anymore and youll have somw cred….

            00

            • #
              OriginalSteve

              Some cred….

              00

              • #
                Willard

                I reply to some comments concerning electric cars and Robert, Dave and Original Steve make assumptions on ideology.

                04

              • #
                OriginalSteve

                Which ideology would that be?

                10

              • #
                Willard

                Whatever ideology you wish to use to distract attention from your lack of electric vehicle knowledge Steve.

                02

              • #
                James Bradley

                Ozone bad at 5ppm.

                20

              • #
                OriginalSteve

                Willard, if every dwelling had an electric car, the average power consumption per house would almost double.

                Assuming petrol cars disappeared, you now have to produce double the amount of power through the grid to charge them. Even allowing for every house having solar of some sort ( and every house cant have that coz it pushes output voltage up too high for the grid ) so the only answer is build more coal powered or gas powered power stations.

                The green thing isn’t practical.

                10

              • #
                OriginalSteve

                Willard, lets face it- EV have at best a 0.5 -0.67 energy density capabilty equivelent compared to gasoline.

                Until that can be changed, EVs are not viable.

                See, I can google stuff too….

                10

              • #
                Willard

                OriginalSteve
                March 24, 2017 at 9:42 am
                Willard, lets face it- EV have at best a 0.5 -0.67 energy density capabilty equivelent compared to gasoline.

                Until that can be changed, EVs are not viable.

                See, I can google stuff too….

                So you can google stuff Steve, you still don’t understand it though.

                02

              • #
                Willard

                OriginalSteve
                March 24, 2017 at 6:16 am
                Willard, if every dwelling had an electric car, the average power consumption per house would almost double.

                Assuming petrol cars disappeared, you now have to produce double the amount of power through the grid to charge them. Even allowing for every house having solar of some sort ( and every house cant have that coz it pushes output voltage up too high for the grid ) so the only answer is build more coal powered or gas powered power stations.

                The green thing isn’t practical.

                Incorrect Steve, your claim above is utter garbage.

                14

              • #
                OriginalSteve

                Willard as a final comment, like otjer green supporters, you seem deliberately oblivious to engineering and logical practicalities. Green powersources cannot power the world as is. And as there is no crisis caused by warming, no one will invest in green tech. As such, progressing down a green path is either extrene foolishness or a deliverate attempt to crash our way of lufe. Either eay, comrade, it wilk be resisted by all right minded people with a vegeance. Enjoy living a false green utopia, we wont be funding nor going along with it.Hopefully more people like trump will dump the green nonsense on its ear and call it out for the trash it is.

                00

          • #
            James Bradley

            Dullard,

            Ozone is toxic at 5ppm.

            The impact of ozone producing electric cars will devastate the world.

            31

        • #
          OriginalSteve

          The green movement have been taken over by communists….that much is very clear. Saul Alynski would be proud. But there clearly are many in govt who seem to covertly support communism….

          A nation cannot survive treachery from within…

          20

      • #
        James Bradley

        Dullard,

        If carbon is bad – ozone is worse.

        10

        • #
          bobl

          Absolutely James and ozone is a radiative gas too! Lithium is explosive.

          11

          • #
            Willard

            Bobl you need to read up on the difference between brushed and brushless electric motors before you look as foolish as James Bradley has over the past two days.

            00

            • #
              bobl

              Willard, another strawman did I say anything about how the ozone was generated. Just that it’s toxic and a radiative gas and that lithium can be explosive when exposed to water. None of these things is wrong.

              00

  • #
    Paul G

    Recently SA has relied on Victoria to provide its electric power deficit. Questions arise. With Hazelwood soon closing, will Victoria rely on NSW to fill peak gaps? Has NSW sufficient surplus power and would the system interconnections carry the demand?
    Mandated preference is given for the network to accept ‘renewable’ power over fossil fuel generators, de-stabilising the network at times, probably more so in the future. A major administration flaw which could led to expensive power failures.
    All this stems from CO2 being declared a pollutant; CO2 it is not only just plant food, but also the essential base in the food chain, for both marine and animal life. Our bodies are built on complex carbon chemistry – 17% is carbon. We need carbon based food every day to stay alive! We breath out about 1 kg of CO2 every day.
    We have been told that fossil fuels will ‘run out’ but so will many of the elements used in batteries, wind generators, and PV cells, etc. [There is plenty of silicon but small quantities of others are used.]
    Activists have certainly taken over government and media, ignoring technically competent advice.

    71

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      Short answer NO and NO and yes. NSW has been importing electricity from Victoria for some years, so that interconnection will be OK, it is just that there won’t be enough power to export any from NSW or Vic. So any peak demand in SA will mean rolling blackouts there. Much the same for NSW.

      31

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        The whole energy thing is a bit like one of those games whereby you have one empty space, and you have to slide all the tiles aorund before you can remove them from the board through a hole in the side.

        SA and its 40% renewables is the plug-hole ( black hole ) that will allow all the reliable energy to be pilfered off the game board by creating a catastrophic shortfall ( hazelwood )….

        I am wondering about the Victorian Premier – people seem to be sick of him already ( ask my successful right wing great aunt who’d happily let him loose in a roof full of CFA volunteers and watch the fur fly…..) so once it all goes pear shape, it will be The Great Power Shortage We Had To Have….

        Echoes of Keating, root canals and standing on bits of lego in the dark….

        40

  • #
    David Maddison

    I think a whole bunch of comments beyond this one just disappeared. I first noticed a problem when my last two comments didn’t go at the end but further up the heap, and they were new comments, not replies. Then I check back later (now) and the latest comments have gone. I’m pretty sure there was over 180 comments before, now there are 98 as I type this. Something like this happened a few weeks ago as well.

    Do you agree or am I wrong? Perhaps the comments were just reindexed?

    31

  • #
    David Maddison

    Jo, the vast amount of information in this blog will be invaluable to future historians.

    Do you think you can start a project to print it all out on paper and bind it in book form so they can read it without computers or electricity and then microfilm that so it can be read with a bit of improvisation?

    Make a number of copies and store in ground in sealed capsules with cryptic messages carved in rock about how to find them for those willing to decipher messages.

    43

  • #
    pat

    22 Mar: SouthChinaMorningPost: Developing Asia has to balance climate change fight with energy needs for growth
    (Alfonso Cusi is the Philippines cabinet secretary for the Department of Energy)
    Alfonso Cusi says renewable energy is still too costly and unreliable for consumers in nations such as the Philippines, which is why conventional energy sources must be made more sustainable
    In Asia, where one in seven people lack access to basic electricity, the balance between promoting socioeconomic growth and combating climate change is an extremely fine one for governments. States like the Philippines must therefore strike a balance.
    Renewable energy prices are falling, but still remain unaffordable in comparison to conventional energy sources…
    For the Philippines, where energy is not subsidised, the effect is even more noticeable…

    Moreover, renewable sources of energy are relatively unreliable. In the Philippines, where 30 per cent of our power is sourced from renewables, its inherently intermittent nature risks regular brownouts, an impediment to progress and a red light to potential investors. While we are by no means turning our backs on renewable energy, a technology-neutral approach will be required if the Philippines is to find this balance.
    “Technology-neutral” means that we shouldn’t be constrained by rigid or arbitrary targets in sourcing our energy…
    For instance, refurbishing old and naturally degrading coal power plants will increase fuel efficiency. Indeed, the International Energy Agency estimates that we could cut over 1.5 billion metric tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions annually.

    This initiative is being driven by Asian countries such as Japan and India, not to mention China, whose re-engineering of the Shanghai-Waigaqiao No 3 Power Plant is a notable highlight.
    We’re trying to replicate this creative approach in the Philippines, by phasing out old and inefficient generation facilities, and promoting critical coal-fired plants…
    Ultimately, amid the uncertainty over the Paris Agreement and concerns about the financing of new renewable projects, there is an opportunity for developing countries to carve out their own climate strategy and take the lead action on climate change…
    Rather than treating renewable energy as some sort of totem, the global focus should be on targeting any and all sources of emissions reduction.
    http://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2081083/developing-asia-has-balance-climate-change-fight-energy

    32

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      Sensible type. All aid to the fight against AGW short of actually doing anything. Talk is cheap and fools the believers in AGW, in fact it gives them a nice warm feeling because thanks to their training they believe B.S.

      31

  • #
    William

    A politician held accountable for his lies?
    Bwaaaaaaaaaa haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa……

    Look! A unicorn!

    61

    • #
      PeterS

      For now that’s true they are not held accountable but eventually the masses can only put up with the BS for so long. History is full of such incidences. Politicians are not held in a good light now but it will get much worse soon enough.

      30

      • #
        el gordo

        The prosecution will say there was no due diligence in regards to AGW and we ended up with desalination plants, wind farms and solar power, politicians must take some responsibility.

        The defence will argue that they had it on good authority (scientists) that we must act quickly and invoked the precautionary principle. Unfortunately the politicians will get off the hook, but the people will judge them harshly at every state and federal election if they still appear braindead.

        All the climate scientists should be sacked and then reemployed if needed, depending on their previous delinquent behaviour.

        Fairfax Media, ABC, SBS and the Guardian have been a disgrace throughout this whole sorry business, the MSM has generally lost all credibility. They get the blame for beating up stories and using catastrophism as the best angle to sell their lies.

        The sun is blank, can’t be too much longer to wait for justice.

        30

  • #
    Egor the One

    When Hazelwood is forced to close, where is its 22% of Victoria’s state power going to come from ? probable answer: ddddaaaarrrrr !!

    If SA’s regular state wide power failures are nothing to do with ‘Windmill Weatherill’s intermittent toy power policy’ , then why does he need battery backup and additional gas fired power ? probable answer: ddddaaaarrrrr !!

    At the federal government level how is the ALP’s 50% ‘intermittent toy energy policy’ reckless ,but the LNP’s 23% is somehow a giant step forward ?
    Both policies(stupid ideas) from each are reckless, just one more so than the other.

    How is the LNP to solve its own energy stupidity by allowing VIC state Despot Dan to shut down 22% of Vic state’s power!
    Is not our national power grid of which Victoria is part of, not primarily a federal issue?

    How is a study of pumping water uphill going to solve losing 22% of VIC’s state power in only a few day’s time ?

    All these clowns(our so called leaders) are criminally incompetent either by mistake or deliberately.

    I smell a rat with all this sleazy business, and I doubt that gross incompetence is the basic cause !

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      toorightmate

      Egor,
      With our current group of politicians, DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE “GROSS INCOMPETENCE”.

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        OriginalSteve

        I refuse to believe this is incompetence, its too consistent…

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        OriginalSteve

        It also seems every politician has stuck thier finger in their ear and abdicated their responsibility and need to be sacked.

        40

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    I’d like to point something out here.

    Remember how I harp on about Australia consuming 18,000MW at 3.30AM to 4AM, and that basically, all of that is just what was being generated by those large scale coal fired power plants.

    You’ve seen the lists I made in the earlier Post about Hazelwood.

    Up till even three years back, there were other large scale coal fired plants, mainly in NSW, and these were used as rolling reserve, mainly used when the other Majors had a Unit off line for maintenance. Those plants have closed, and now Hazelwood is closing.

    I mentioned that this will place stress on those Majors now, so let me show you how. This is after Hazelwood closes, so Victoria goes lower. And this is with all Units at each of these plants operational.

    Where it says Actual power delivery, that is currently (around) what all of those plants can generate with all their units running.

    State – Nameplate – Actual power delivery – Minimum power consumed (3.30AM)

    NSW – 10,200MW – 6300MW – 6250MW (here we have Liddell at a Nameplate of 2000MW used as rolling reserve and delivering around 3 x 250MW, so take 2000 from the Nameplate here as Liddell will be the next Major to close)

    Vic – 4,600MW – 4120MW – 3800MW

    Qld – 8,200MW – 6600MW – 5500MW

    S.A. – Zero – Zero – 1100MW

    Total – 23,000MW – 17,000MW – 16,250. (From this total of 23,000MW take away Liddell of 2000MW)

    Note here the Minimum generation with all units running is 17,000MW, and the current Minimum is 16250MW.

    See the stress now placed on those Majors. If even one Unit goes down for maintenance, then power will need to be sourced from elsewhere. That will be done, but what that means is that the cheapest power goes off line, replaced by power that is more expensive to generate, forcing up the cost of electricity.

    While I have done the calculations for all the units at every plant, at the moment there are 5 or 6 Units from all those plants off line across those three States.

    Hazelwood, old as it was, was the insurance with its 8 Units, as were all those other coal fired plants closed because it was uneconomic to be burning and turning but not delivering, just waiting for when they were called upon.

    So, if one morning you wake up and the clock radio is flashing, indicating that the power went off during the night, you’ll have an idea as to why that happened.

    The fact that it has been allowed to get to this point is the fault of politicians at a State level, of every party affiliation, not game to give the go ahead for a new replacement large scale power plant.

    If Victoria goes into deficit, the first to suffer will be South Australia when the wind fails, and the Interconnector will have nothing to give.

    Tony.

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      toorightmate

      I eagerly await the joint blackout(s) of SA and Vic.
      It will help the wheel [which may drive us to common sense] to turn, just a little further in the right direction.

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        OriginalSteve

        I will happily tell anyone concerned its left wingers who have orchestrated this whole mess…no playing pin the tail on the donkey in this game…just use a flamin great ramset fastener device to make sure it stays securely fastened to the cause of the problem so everyone can see who caused it

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    pat

    21 Mar: Toronto Sun: Lorrie Goldstein: Cap-and-trade auction little more than a cash grab
    It’s hard to imagine how even Premier Kathleen Wynne’s incompetent government could screw up its first auction of carbon credits to major industrial emitters Wednesday under its new cap and trade plan.
    That’s because this one only involves Ontario industries and the province established all the rules.
    The bigger gamble will come next year when Ontario joins the roller coaster California-Quebec cap and trade market.
    Essentially a highly speculative stock market trading in carbon credits, it’s been crashing with alarming regularity.
    Ontario’s first auction is a confusing and little-understood affair.

    Of 240 greenhouse gas-emitting industries which fall under Wynne’s cap and trade scheme, 102 are getting free carbon credits from the government — free money, courtesy of taxpayers — for at least the first four years of the program.
    That’s to prevent them from bolting to other jurisdictions that don’t have a national carbon pricing scheme, such as the United States, our largest trading partner.

    Indeed, it’s particularly reckless for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to be imposing a national carbon price on Canadian consumers and taxpayers when the U.S. is heading in the opposite direction under President Donald Trump…READ ON
    http://www.torontosun.com/2017/03/21/cap-and-trade-auction-little-more-than-a-cash-grab

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    pat

    22 Mar: BizJournals: Pete Danko: Oregon business groups’ dire take on cap and trade disputed
    A little over a month ago, the Department of Environmental Quality released a cap-and-trade study that found the effect of such a program on Oregon’s economy would likely be small, coming in at “slightly positive or slightly negative.”
    It’s a different story if you listen to the state’s highest-profile business groups.

    A study commissioned by Associated Oregon Industries and the Oregon Business Association puts losses to Oregon’s economy at $4.5 billion in GDP and 16,900 jobs by 2050.
    The report began circulating in Salem last week. Environmentalists backing cap and trade are calling it “alternative facts,” but it got an hour of air time Tuesday evening at a meeting of two legislative committees working on the climate issue…

    The study forecast allowance prices rising from $13 per metric tonne in 2021 to $84 in 2035 — then $464 in 2050…
    With that, “retail electricity rates would increase 65 to 118 percent for the majority of consumers; average retail natural gas prices would jump 179 percent; and retail gasoline prices would increase to $7.60 per gallon,” all in 2016 dollars, the study found…CLICK ON SHOW FULL ARTICLE FOR CRITIQUE OF THE BUSINESS ASSOCN STUDY
    http://www.bizjournals.com/portland/news/2017/03/22/business-groups-dire-take-on-cap-and-trade.html

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  • #
    OriginalSteve

    I cant resist – replace jackass with “Flannel Ears” or Al Baby….O/T but not….

    “Once upon a time …

    The king called on the royal weather forecaster and inquired as to the weather forecast for the next few hours.

    The royal weatherman assured him that there was no chance of rain for at least 4 days.

    So the king went fishing with his wife, the queen.
    On the way he met a farmer on his donkey.

    Upon seeing the king the farmer said, “Your Majesty, you should return to the palace!

    In just a short time I expect a huge amount of rain to fall in this area.”

    The king was polite and considerate, he replied: “Thanks for your concern, but don’t worry. It’s not going to rain today.

    I hold the palace meteorologist in high regard.

    He is an extensively educated and experienced professional, and besides, I pay him very high wages.

    He gave me a very different forecast. I trust him.”

    So the king continued on his way.

    However, a short time later a torrential rain fell from the sky.

    The King and Queen were totally soaked and their entourage chuckled upon seeing them in such a shameful condition.

    Furious, the king returned to the palace and gave the order to fire the professional.

    Then he summoned the farmer and offered him the prestigious and high paying role of royal forecaster.

    The farmer said, “Your Majesty, I do not know anything about forecasting.

    I obtained the information about rain today from my donkey.

    If I see my donkey’s ears drooping, it means with certainty that it will rain very soon.”

    So the king hired the donkey instead.

    And thus began the practice of hiring dumb asses to work in the government and occupy its highest and most influential positions.

    The practice is unbroken to this day…”

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      Leonard Lane

      Bravo! OriginalSteve.

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    • #
      Bill Burrows

      My work involved extensive travel through South West Queensland in the 1960’s. Occasionally my colleagues and I would call in for a drink at the Eulo Pub at the end of a hot day in the mulga. There was always an old aboriginal stockman ensconced in a corner also enjoying a drink. The publican said he was “King Billy” and was sadly the last of his tribe. He also advised that he was an excellent weather forecaster. When repeatedly pressed as to the source of his accurate insights he would say it was a secret handed down from the Dreamtime and the knowledge would go to his grave with him.

      As Eulo is in a very drought prone area all the locals did all they could to extract Billy’s secret. But despite years of free drinks he remained silent on this issue. Then one day he suddenly announced to all in the bar that he would die within 2 days. Since there was no obvious evidence of illness everyone present pooh poohed the idea. But Billy persisted. So in obvious frustration the publican made a final plea to Billy to reveal his forecasting secret. And to the surprise of all present he promised to at last tell everyone of his amazing technique, as he seemingly appreciated that being the last of his tribe he really should not take this immense Dreamtime secret to the grave with him. As last drinks all round were polished off before the pub closed on Billy’s last day all the patrons and publican gathered expectantly around him to hear this final wisdom from the ages.

      “You know Boss” Billy addressed the publican “I only ever predict rain after I hear them storm birds Sing”! And as the story is constantly told, King Billy passed away the next day.

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    pat

    meanwhile, the FakeNewsMSM has been making a new phony mountain out of another molehill. amusingly, tweets by these “top” reporters attract almost no replies and often just retweet each other!!!

    what Spicer said to Glenn Thrush’s question:

    MR. SPICER: I think there’s a robust debate going on with respect to comprehensive tax reform…There’s a lot of things on the agenda. But I’m not going to comment on specific prongs of that.

    21 Mar: Twitter: Glenn Thrush NYT: Sean on internal carbon tax discussions -and Gary Cohn’s role as a potential supporter — ‘There’s a robust debate’ going in inside the WH.
    ***reply: Jonathan Curry: Slightly misleading IMO: he said theres a robust debate “with respect to comprehensive tax reform” but no comment on carbon tax.

    21 Mar: Twitter: BBC James Cook: Sean Spicer on whether White House is considering a carbon tax:
    “There’s a robust debate going on with respect to comprehensive tax reform.”

    21 Mar: Annie Karni Politico: Spicer today said there was “robust discussion” of carbon tax. Dawsey called the WH, and: “The Trump admin is not considering a carbon tax.”
    Tweet: Josh Dawsey Politico: White House kills carbon tax, but fight shows schism in White House on many issues. w/@anniekarni, @AndrewRestuccia:

    21 Mar: Politico: Carbon tax debate exposed rift among Trump’s aides
    Moderates and hardline conservatives are vying for the ideological core of the White House.
    By Josh Dawsey, Annie Karni and Andrew Restuccia
    When former Secretary of State James Baker and his allies came to the White House last month to pitch a carbon tax, they received a warm reception from Gary Cohn, one of the president’s top economic advisers.

    Six weeks later, the friendly meeting with advocates of the highly controversial policy proposal is still reverberating in the White House, underscoring the increasingly tense relationship between Cohn and Steve Bannon, Trump’s powerful chief strategist, who have staked out vastly different ideological approaches to West Wing matters.

    Any tax would raise significant resistance from Republicans, and one Cohn ally says he has not been making active arguments for the tax internally. But the meeting nonetheless set off alarm bells for Bannon and his allies, who regard Cohn with growing suspicion and see climate change as a key point of tension between Trump’s moderate and hard-line conservative advisers. And they say Cohn — a registered Democrat — is a secret supporter of the tax.

    ***When asked on Tuesday whether Cohn, head of the National Economic Council, supported a carbon tax, White House press secretary Sean Spicer said there was a “robust” discussion ongoing about taxes…

    ***The Trump administration is not considering a carbon tax,” Lindsay Walters, a White House spokeswoman, said later Tuesday evening, in response to questions…

    Cohn allies say the former Goldman Sachs banker is injecting some realism and a practical sensibility into the White House…

    One of the most heated debates in the West Wing has proved to be the Paris climate change agreement. People inside and outside the White House say it’s unclear where Trump will come down on the agreement, but that it will be a test of Bannon’s and Cohn’s influence. Bannon has opposed the deal, separating him from many other advisers, including Trump’s daughter Ivanka and her husband, Jared Kushner, and further heightening his tensions with Cohn.

    Cohn is said to be avoiding taking a formal position on the Paris agreement, but several of his aides have been quietly mulling a plan to stay in the deal, while weakening a domestic emissions reduction target put forward by former President Barack Obama and trying to win incentives for fossil fuels. It is, these people said, a practical way to handle the matter…
    http://www.politico.com/story/2017/03/trump-carbon-tax-white-house-236327

    Spiecer saying “no comment” in February sparked an earlier push by the MSM to sell a carbon tax:

    9 Feb: E&E News: Trump’s last answer to a carbon tax? No way!
    by Evan Lehmann and Emily Holden
    White House press secretary Sean Spicer declined to comment on the carbon tax meeting during yesterday’s press briefing.
    But Republicans on Capitol Hill and one source close to the administration described the odds of Trump or Congress supporting such a tax as preposterous.
    Rep. Kevin Cramer, the North Dakota Republican who has advised Trump on energy policy, said he doesn’t see Congress approving a carbon tax “in a million years.”

    Cramer said previously that he could potentially support a carbon tax with revenues going toward fossil fuel research, but Trump quickly condemned the idea last spring.
    “You remember when I talked about it in a different context, it took Donald Trump all of about 30 minutes to tweet ‘no way,’” Cramer said…

    A carbon tax could theoretically be attractive to Republicans who are looking for a large pot of money for infrastructure projects.
    “We need lots of money right now, but driving the cost of everything up is not the way Republicans are going to generate more money,” Cramer said…
    Thomas Pyle, president of the American Energy Alliance who worked on Trump’s transition team, said it will never fly…
    http://www.eenews.net/climatewire/stories/1060049798

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  • #
    Another Ian

    Forget looking for “government wisdom” – that’s just another oxymoron

    What we have here is yet another “government enthusiasm”

    10

  • #
    Another Ian

    Some more numbers

    “By the numbers: Lifetime Performance of World’s First Offshore Wind Farm”

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/03/22/by-the-numbers-lifetime-performance-of-worlds-first-offshore-wind-farm/

    10

    • #
      David Maddison

      Oh how beautiful it is to see one of these monstrosities dismantled.

      21

      • #
        David Maddison

        And it only had 25 yrs of unproductive and useless life.

        Hazelwood still going strong at 53 until it is destroyed in a few days.

        11

  • #
    Analitik

    We have a power grid that has not been engineered for the decentralised sources of power that we are now generating led by renewables; many billions must be invested to make it remotely reliable and efficient and that will have to be paid for by power users. The knowledge of how best do this is not held within the state or federal governments humanity’s capabilities.

    fixed

    10

  • #
    el gordo

    John Quiggin and Price quit Climate Change Authority.

    ‘Quiggin said his immediate reason for resigning was the government’s failure to respond to the authority’s third report of the special review into potential climate policies, which the government had requested and which it was legally required to respond to.

    “The government has already indicated that it will reject the key recommendations of the review, particularly the introduction of an emissions intensity scheme for the electricity industry.”

    ‘Quiggin said he didn’t believe there was anything to be gained “by giving objective advice based on science and economic analysis to a government dominated by elements hostile to both science and economics”.

    Guardian

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    lewispbuckingham

    The federal Government has a primary responsibility for the defence of our nation.
    The State governments of SA and VIC and now, unfortunately for us in NSW, have decided to bring in insecure power supplies.
    How then are we to build and maintain submarines, aircraft and naval shipping as well as terrain vehicles without reliable power.
    The Federal Power is wide.
    If anyone or state does not assist in defence of the nation they may be held to account federally.

    Section 51(vi) and the Australian States[edit]
    The defence power is set out in section 51 of the Constitution as follows:

    51 The Parliament shall, subject to this Constitution, have power to make laws for the peace, order, and good government of the Commonwealth with respect to:

    (vi) the naval and military defence of the Commonwealth and of the several States, and the control of the forces to execute and maintain the laws of the Commonwealth;
    (xxxii) the control of railways with respect to transport for the naval and military purposes of the Commonwealth;[1]

    If there is the possibility of politicians being charged with negligence over gross interference with disorder of our defence industries, apart from our lives and businesses, this would be a clear place to start.
    Perhaps SA will become not only a test bed for pricey Green technology that does not work,to the despair of the citizens, but a canary in the coal mine for the Political class who actively planned for eventual failure on known engineering grounds, as was warned before SA went black.

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  • #
    mal

    Will our descendants look back at this time and call coal fired power station closures as the new stolen generation

    40

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    pat

    el gordo -

    Guardian now upping the rhetoric!

    23 Mar: Guardian: Helen Davidson: Two quit Australian climate authority blaming government ‘extremists’
    John Quiggin and Danny Price resign over Coalition’s ‘rightwing anti-science activists’ and climate change political point-scoring
    Two members of the Climate Change Authority have resigned, with one accusing the government of being beholden to rightwing, anti-science “extremists” in its own party and in the media…
    The Greens climate and energy spokesman, Adam Bandt, said the government’s “dangerous pandering to climate change deniers” had left it friendless.
    “When added to previous resignations, this exodus is the equivalent of half the reserve bank board resigning over the government’s economic policies.”
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/mar/23/two-quit-australia-climate-change-authority-john-quiggin-danny-price

    23 Mar: Canberra Times: Peter Hannam: ‘Just crazy’: Twin blasts for Turnbull government over energy and climate policy
    “It’s just crazy,” Mr Price said. “Investors look at it and go ‘that’s about as frightening as it gets’ because when governments do policy on the run, it most often cuts across their interests so it actually increases the risks.”…
    “It’s going to get a lot worse before there’s any hope of it getting better,” Mr Price said. “Investors can’t work out what to build. Every option at the moment is uneconomic.”
    Mr Price, who advises the South Australian government, said consumers can expect higher prices…
    Of the original board members, only David Karoly from the University of Melbourne remains.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/environment/climate-change/just-crazy-twin-blasts-for-turnbull-government-over-energy-and-climate-policy-20170323-gv4pug.html

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  • #
    David Maddison

    “Dear the left; your people fill the higher institutions of culture.

    You control Silicon Valley.

    You control Hollywood & the music industry.

    You control the art world.

    You control popular culture.

    You witch hunt, shame & fire anyone who transgresses your identity politics dogma.

    And yet you still claim to be counter-cultural dissidents ‘fighting the establishment’, ‘railing against the mainstream’.

    You’re not the counter-culture. You’re not dissidents.

    You are the ultimate conformists. You are the mainstream. You are the establishment.” – Paul Joseph Watson

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    pat

    posted Laura Tingle’s pre-speech AFR piece the other day. to date, have not seen any mention on ABC!!!

    Quiggin & Price have at least one soul-mate:

    22 Mar: HuffPo: Josh Butler: Science Minister Tells Politicians To Stop Denying Climate Change And Vaccinations
    Arthur Sinodinos criticises the ‘lack of respect’ for science in the parliament.
    “Increasingly, there has emerged a lack of respect for the scientific method in some quarters. We see the conclusions of experts being cast aside, in favour of ideological positions and selective use of facts,” Sinodinos said…
    TWEETS: Malcolm Roberts, including:
    Looking forward to meeting @A_Sinodinos & @ScienceChiefAu to discuss climate science & lack of empirical evidence to support AGW hypothesis…READ ON
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2017/03/22/science-minister-tells-politicians-to-stop-denying-climate-chang_a_21905169/

    10

  • #
    ExWarmist

    Hmmm.

    Makes note to self. Invest in a diesel generator.

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    [...] Alarm about the future of our power supply. The looming crisis is much worse than I expected. Three state governments, Victoria NSW and South [...]

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