Australia’s “leading climate scientists” can’t predict the climate but they are very good PR operatives. Here in Perth we’ve had a cool year — for the last twelve months it’s been nearly a whole degree cooler than the average for the last 20 years. But last weekend in Perth, news stories told us we’d had an “autumn stinker” and wait for it, we might get Perth’s second hottest first eight days of March. Call that a HFEDOM record and write in the Guinness Book of records. It’s a permutation “record” almost as important as the longest distance run by a man holding a table in his teeth. Except it’s not even a record, it’s a news story about a record that “might happen”, but didn’t.
Let’s name Neil Bennett (BOM) and Will Steffen (ANU) as the Propaganda-in-Chiefs dumping meaningless climate-trivia on the people in order to generate FEAR and screw more money from the public.
Straight from the New Climate PRAVDA Manual:
- Invent contrived trivial permutations in order to use the word “record”
- Don’t bother waiting for real data, use forecasts
- If record includes the word “cool”, “cooler”, or “cold”, send to trash.
- When wrong, crickets.
Click to enlarge, The Sunday Times
So science serves its purpose as a tax revenue generator and source of support for parasitic industries that need government money and government propaganda to keep them alive. (Yes, I’m talking about renewable energy).
The public is hammered with record hot stories, even before they’ve happened in this case, yet there are no BoM announcements or media stories detailing WA’s remarkable run of well below average temps since about April last year. Last week the Climate Council report on summer mentioned Perth had record rainfall and the second hottest December day on record at 42.4C on 21 December, but they didn’t mention 9 February when Perth had by far its coldest February maximum daily temp since records began in 1897, smashing the previous record by a whopping 1.6C. — Jo
_____________________________________________________________________
Fake News doesn’t mention the real climate that West Australians should get used to
GUEST POST by a Weather Watcher reader in WA.
Click to enlarge
It’s what Donald Trump likes to call Fake News.
The Bureau of Meteorology was in the media on Sunday 5th March to warn that if the forecasts in the following four days were accurate, Perth would have an average maximum of 35.5C in the first eight days of March. The alarm bells were ringing because Perth was sweltering through the second hottest first eight days of March ever recorded.
Well, the first eight days of March have passed and Perth’s average maximum was 34.8C. So the first eight days of March were the 5th warmest on record, not the 2nd warmest.
A warm start to March but a bit of a non-event and no longer of any interest to the media. However, the several hundred thousand people who read the Sunday newspaper will nevertheless be telling all their friends that the first eight days of March this year were the second hottest ever in Perth.
The bureau and the media created record temperatures before they had (not) happened, misleading the public but reinforcing the climate warming theme.
Are you used to it?
The same Sunday story included Will Steffen from the Australian Climate Council, who said WA’s temperatures and a hot eastern states season were further evidence that Australia can expect more frequent and hotter heatwaves, with WA to be belted by regular 50C days within decades.
Professor Steffen says what happened in Perth and WA this week is more data confirming that extreme heat is on the increase, and West Australians should get used to days such as the 36.1C recorded in Perth last Saturday.
Hang on. 36.1C in Perth during early March? Perth’s hottest ever March day was 42.4C and the month always has at least a few days in the high 30s, some years slipping into the 40s.
Recent WA climate
Fake News has created evidence of climate change because Perth had a warm first week of March.
But what does the real news have to say about the recent climate in WA? For that we turn to the bureau’s February Monthly Summary (www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/month/wa/summary.shtml):
- On 8, 9 and 10 February 2017, 33 WA weather stations had their record lowest February daily maximum temperature. Their new record maxima averaged 17.04C and the previous record low February daily maxima at the 33 stations averaged 18.84C.
- Eight WA weather stations had their record lowest February mean daily maximum temperature, their average being 27.54C. The previous record lowest February mean daily maximum temperature at the eight stations averaged 27.85C.
- Three WA weather stations had their record lowest February mean temperature (Esperance Aero, Rocky Gully, York), their average being 20.67C. The previous record lowest February mean temperature at the three stations averaged 20.93C.
- Rainfall averaged across WA was just over 100 mm, about 70% higher than the long-term average.
- The South West Land Division recorded its second-wettest February on record and the wettest February for 62 years, since 1955.
- Many record high February daily rainfalls were recorded between 8 and 11 February as a tropical low moved over the Pilbara and an associated cloudband developed over southwest WA.
- Over 50 locations in the SWLD observed their wettest February on record, while more than a hundred sites reported their wettest February on record for at least 20 years.
- The mean maximum temperature for WA was 1.3 °C below average, the lowest for six years since February 2011.
- The mean maximum temperature for the SWLD was 1.6 °C below average, the lowest for 16 years since February 2001.
- Persistent rain and cool southeasterly winds led to many locations in the SWLD observing their lowest February daily maximum temperature on record between the 8th and 10th.
- Several sites in the SWLD had their mildest February on record, while a dozen or so had their mildest February for at least 20 years.
- Mean minimum temperatures were close to average across much of WA.
Angry summer?
Sunday’s newspaper story noted that it was a wet, cold summer with the maximum across WA being 0.8C below average.
However, the Climate Council issued its Angry Summer report yesterday (https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/uploads/06d005450f38335df2c2165dc9acaac9.pdf) and it turns out the flooding that accompanied WA’s record rainfall was indicative of a warming climate holding more moisture in the atmosphere.
Perth has had 868.5mm of rain since April 2016 (with showers forecast early next week), which compares to the annual rainfall average of 868.3mm from 1876 to 1991. So when Perth rainfall is exactly the same as it was in the first 115 years of recording, it’s proof that climate warming is putting more moisture in the atmosphere.
If the temperature goes up and it doesn’t rain much, it’s climate change. If the temperature goes down and it rains a lot, it’s climate change. This is rainfall in southern WA, where a reduction of almost 15% since the 1970s is usually touted as evidence of climate change.
Chilly for almost a year
Perth temperatures have been well below average for much of the past year.
The maximum at Perth Metro from April 2016 to February 2017 was 0.9C cooler than the average since the station opened in 1994. The minimum at Perth Metro from April 2016 to February 2017 was 0.5C cooler than the long-term average.
Eleven southern WA stations had their lowest winter mean maximum on record and 32 had their lowest winter mean maximum in at least 23 years. Five stations had their lowest winter mean temperature on record and eight had their lowest mean temperature in at least 20 years.
Coldest September ever
September in southern WA had a maximum 1.4C below average, the equal 10th coolest September on record. September’s mean minimum in the South West Land Division was 2.1C below average and the coldest September on record.
The mean September temperature at WA’S 15 ACORN stations south of and including Geraldton was the coldest since 1897. The September 2016 Monthly Climate Summary for WA lists 31 weather stations that had their coldest ever average minimum, eight that had their coldest ever average maximum, and 26 that had their coldest mean temperature on record
On 30 January 2017, Perth Metro had its fifth coldest January maximum temperature since readings began at Perth Regional Office in 1897. At Perth Airport, 30 January was the coldest January day since the station opened in 1945.
For almost a year the western 2.6 million square kilometres of Australia have enjoyed below average temperatures and a string of record cold days or months, with consistent rains producing record grain harvests, overflowing farm dams and a carpet of green from north to south.
That’s the real news, not the fake news.
Wait. You can’t blame this on 97% climate change?
Cyclone Blanche is latest to cross land in second consecutive quiet season in Australian history
“This year, on the other hand, the low numbers have blindsided them.
Dr Andrew Watkins the manager of climate prediction services at the bureau, said scientists are, at present, trying to get to the bottom of exactly what happened.
They have a few theories, Dr Watkins said, and are presently crunching the data to get to the bottom of it.
“There are several theories and at the moment the data is pouring in from satellites and everywhere,” he said.
In the Climate Council’s Cranking up the Intensity: Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events report released earlier this year, the independent body predicted that in coming years, due to rising temperatures, cyclones would get less frequent but those that formed would be higher in intensity.
But he said “basic physics” governed that climate change would increase the intensity of cyclones in the future.
It does not, however, explain this season’s anomaly.
“Being perfectly honest, climate change is a factor in most of our climate science these days but in terms of tropical cyclones you couldn’t put this season down to climate change,” he said.
http://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/climate-change/cyclone-blanche-is-latest-to-cross-land-in-second-consecutive-quiet-season-in-australian-history/news-story/220bd07cbd24d1db32cfd2175d3ec2ac
* * *
And they think they can predict & control the climate in 100 years?
Tell ’em they’re dreaming.
301
Not with a quiet sun, no. The bumpier the Space Qeather (Solar activity as in Solar Flares and CMEs), the greater the likelihood of terrestiral extreme weather (as in collections of thunder storms -> TC’s, Hurricanes and Typhoons).
OK. Without the Remote Control for The Sun, they’re dreaming.
90
Qeather = Weather.
I hate typos.
51
.
“Qeather” !!!
.
sophocles, for god’s sakes don’t invent yet another description for the climate catastrophe whackos, aka BOM climate “scientists” [ ??? ] and the equally infantile climate division “scientists” of the CSIRO and the insanity laden Greens cult to describe some weather pattern.
A weather pattern that they can claim without any vestige of scientific or data based supporting evidence at all that is supposedly different to the “Normal” weather patterns [ what is “normal” weather ? ] and therefore is climate changed “queer” weather.
In short your “Qeather“!
.
🙂
50
ROM the term Qeather or queer weather has been around since the ancient Greeks.
ASTRAIOS (Astraeus) was the Titan god of stars and planets and of the art of astrology. By Eos (the Dawn) he was the father of the Stars and the four seasonal Winds.
He was also in love with Eros the Greek god of love, giving origin to the term “He’s a bit how’s your Astreaus”
20
Interesting!
Thanks Yonniestone.
10
“the art of astrology.”
Indeed! The ‘art of’, rather than something physical (science). Weather forecasting is the ‘art of’ predicting the ‘likely deterministic’, ignoring the statistical, but fearing the chaotic. Astrology is similar but with no fear of the chaotic, a very, very low pass filter!.. Academic meteorology tries to be ‘scientific’, but with no skill whatsoever!
All the best! -will-
22
Thank you Yonniestone.
It was a genuine typo on my part, though.
My keyboard is expert at them, (where X is the unknown quantity (it varies) and a SPURT is a drip under pressure.) 🙂
So, no ROM, it was not an intentional attempt to further pervert English at all . Besides, typos offend my pedantry … 🙂
30
.
An “Expert” is an ordinary individual who is more than 40 miles from home.
.
If he / she has a brief case under their arm, they are a “Consultant”.
70
ROM
Luke 4:24 “Truly I tell you,” he continued, “no prophet is accepted in his hometown.
Sounds familiar somehow 🙂
20
The question is begged: if they didn’t see these cyclone conditions coming, what else aren’t they seeing?
Another question: if the most intense cyclones recorded globally (the exclusive sub-880 mbar club) occurred in the 1950s and 1970s…
What else isn’t happening?
191
I reckon the two Category 1 cyclones we had were homogenised to enable them to be classified as cyclones.
Pressures at centres were 994 and 998 mb.
Max winds (according to Earth Wind Map) were 56 and 62 kph (Despite ABC reporting gusts of up to 95 kph).
These babies would not even have blown Jay Weatherdill’s transmission towers over.
123
I have been very suspicious of Cat 1 cyclones declared here in Queensland for some time. As you have stated, central pressures were quite high and as soon as they make landfall, or just before, they suddenly turn in to severe tropical lows.
01
The cool SST may have played a part in the absence of cyclones.
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2017/anomg.1.16.2017.gif
80
This is the current data re Tropical Cyclone Trends from our very own BoM.
I suggest that if there were trends for either non-severe or severe cyclones then they would show no increase for either.
Note that there is no data beyond 2011.
I recently bought this to the attention of BoM and was advised as follows:
“Thank you for your enquiry. I’m in the Climate Data Services Section and unable to answer that.
All cyclones up to most recent are all listed in the downloadable spreadsheet click on the link titled Database of past tropical cyclone tracks (Last updated on 2017-02-21 )
Other information may be included in the Severe Weather events
The graphics/plots may not have been updated as something new may be planned.”
Duh……
60
I just noticed this statement
“basic physics” governed that climate change would increase the intensity of cyclones in the future.
As I am very aware of “basic physics” I still cannot follow how “Climate Change” whatever that means would “increase the intensity of cyclones” and “in the future”.
This is a totally nonsensical statement, apart from being so obviously wrong in fact. Watkins seems to be becoming someone who sensationalizes the weather. I remember a scandalous wrong call about a cyclone two years ago which was upgraded instead of downgraded and his comments that meteorologists needed to sensationalize the weather. He is certainly doing that, but this idea that he is supported by basic physics is a total mystery.
11
There was a letter published in our local Green-Left ‘newspaper’ a couple of weeks ago by one of our concerned climate worriers about our impending doom. His closing statement was ‘If you don’t believe in climate change, just look out the window.’
He’d written that letter when we had a hot spell of less than a week and when it went to print, things had changed somewhat dramatically. People had their fires going because it was so cold, miserable and wet.
Surely there must be some cold and miserable place where these people can emigrate to so that they don’t have to worry about warm weather.
210
Antarctica, but that would cause pollution. Your mess now Greenpeace.
70
Yes, I tire of these people who weep over the weather, weep over the lost penguins, polar bears, caribou, coral. A howling and a gnashing of teeth over the missing ice in Antarctica. However it was very funny when Prof Turkey’s boat was stuck in non existent ice, devastating the research programs of so many countries, costing millions and risking many lives because they wanted to have a great weep over the lost ice. Odd too when you realise that these are professional weepers, who earn their living by it, like the professional funeral wailers in the Middle East. Oh the humanity, a hot few days in Autumn in Perth, exactly as forewarned. Tragic.
201
Well, my son, it looks like this is your lucky day, because I happen to know about this nice little island that is just sitting in the warm and pleasant South Pacific, teeming, just teeming, with wild life and exotic plants, and the occasional scientist.
It is just waiting for a permanent tenant, who only has to look after the wildlife, and sober up the occasional scientist or two, on occasion.
And to make the offer more friendly like, we have already arranged to place this island under Australian jurisdiction (even though, being in the South Pacific, it should really be administered by New Zealand). But we are all friendly here in the South Pacific (you did see the movie I hope, so you know just how balmy it can be in the South Pacific). So if you want to establish an emigration destination, you just have to get the
whingersprospects, to just sign on the bottom line, right below where it says non negotiable.Nice doing business with you. The name is Macquarie, by the way.
80
We had a very cold summer in Melbourne too. Not so much rain, but you know when the tomatoes fail. Hardly a beach day at all.
Far cooler than average, without having to check the BOM records.
However we sometimes have a warmish run down to Easter and sometimes it is even 37C at Easter, but that is quite normal variation. Why do we need an industrial chemist to play meteorologist and start predicting the weather for us? We have 1,663 full time meteorologists in the BOM whose job it is to do that.
The presumption of the Climate Council, not one of whom is an actual meteorologist never tire of telling us the future when they cannot explain the past and cannot accept that mankind does not control CO2 levels at all, but what would Will Steffen know about equilibrium and Henry’s Law? I wrote to him about this and he just referred me to the IPCC. A political body, not a science body.
So this is the usual Climate Propaganda to support the lifestyle of Monckton’s Profiteers of Doom. They must be running out sponsors. The Climate Institute just did, having burned $10Million on their wages pushing the Global Warming Doom barrow. I suppose we will be seeing the Climate Council down at Centrelink soon. Or maybe they can get one of those Green jobs working on windmills?
162
They don’t because that’s not their job. Forecast the Facts in North America made the same mistake.
The WMO (World Meteorological Organisation—the parent body of the IPCC) does that chore. All the day’s weather data for the whole country is bundled up in digital format and sent from one site in each country (Wellington is NZ’s, Canberra may be Oz’s, but I don’t know) to the WMO’s supercomputers in Geneva. They fold, spindle and mutilate the data then mince it with whatever is their latest weather prediction computer model. The first output is tomorrow’s forecast for each country, which is sent back. Then a 3-day forecast is produced and finally a 5-day forecast.
Every official national forecast is produced that way. The local forecasters look over the new forcasts and may make modifications from their knowledge and experience to better fit the forecasts to local conditions. Such changes are not major.
So why is your BOM using so many forcasters?
122
True, that is what we think they do. Predict the weather, not so much report it. This is because with all the computer automated recording systems and satellites since the 1980s, you have to ask what they all do. I have no idea. Still, if it was forecasting they did, we did not need another 350 CSIRO Climate Change scientists and then you have another group to liase between the two bodies and then you have other needs to liase with bodies overseas like the WMO. One thing and another, 1663 people in a government body and an endless number of bodies, local and international like the Climate Council, (Late) Climate Institute, Greenpeace,
http://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change is the department of Environment and Energy
https://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/en/ is the CSIRO climate change group
https://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/en/ is the Victorian Climate Change site
http://climatechangeauthority.gov.au/ is an Australian Government group
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ is the BOM area on Climate Change
http://managingclimate.gov.au/ is some sort of government site to handle Climate Change
http://www.climatechange.sa.gov.au/home is the South Australian Climate Change group
https://www.sa.gov.au/topics/energy-and-environment/environment-and-natural-resources/climate-change is the South Australian Government’s site for the department of the Premier
http://www.dpac.tas.gov.au/divisions/climatechange is the Tasmanian government’s Climate Change office
http://www.antarctica.gov.au/science/climate-processes-and-change is the Australian Government’s Antarctic division Climate Change site
http://dfat.gov.au/international-relations/themes/climate-change/pages/climate-change.aspx for the Federal department of Foreign Affairs and Trade
/www.cawcr.gov.au/ is for collaboration between the BOM and the CSIRO, working on the same things
http:/http://climatechange.environment.nsw.gov.au// is the site to advise NSW people on Climate Change
http://ageis.climatechange.gov.au/ keeps track of our CO2 obligations under Kyoto
http://www.australianclimate.net.au/ClimateLinks is a guide to a lot of links for farmers to help them cope with Climate change
and I have hardly scratched the surface. So I have no idea what the 1168 people in the BOM actually do, nor all the people who run these endless advisory, monitoring and enforcement bodies, before you get to the RET part which has whole departments.
Climate Change is big business. It may soon overtake farming itself. It will certainly overtake heavy manufacturing as they close it down. As was promised, they are replacing real jobs with Green jobs.
152
My list of the endless Australian Climate Web sites is in moderation. WIthout even trying you can find scores of groups, all professing to help everyone with Climate Change. How much help does a country need with something which even the CSIRO could not prove was actually happening.
[Saw your comment and freed the hung up comment. It went into moderation because there are so many external links. Generally readers don’t look at them all when there are that many although some probably will. So Jo likes to keep the number more reasonable.] AZ
71
and these are just some of the .gov.au sites. Climate Change is a huge employer as promised. Of course none of these people actually do anything.
121
I did not mean the links to be used at all.
They were just to indicate how many actual web sites there were which ended in .gov.au. I would suggest that if you add all the government departments, federal and state, you might end up with hundreds of Climate Change sites and ultimately, they are all funded by us. This is an industry in its own right. If they were not publicly funded they would not exist. What a huge waste of money and resources! Imagine a hundred cricket sites to keep up commentary on cricket scores? Frankly weather watching is a bit like the cricket statisticians. Hottest days in a row stuff. Highest minima in a leap year. That sort of thing.
111
Oh no . . one site is missing!
I don’t know if anyone recalls but in December 2013 The Conversation ran an article promoting a new site for tracking heatwaves.
The site was called Scorcher and was the brain child of Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick from UNSW.
Don’t bother clicking it. It seems to be dead.
Perhaps heat waves are no longer interesting to Sarah . . .
40
“Or maybe they can get one of those Green jobs working on windmills?”
Yes but only if the CFMEU will allow them to sign up.
A relative tried to get a six figure job (traffic control) on the Blackburn rail grade separation project, but no CFMEU member no way.
90
Sounds like the old union ploy – they can’t get the job unless they are a union member, but they can’t join the union until they have the job.
40
TDeF,
I don’t know what you queried Steffen on regarding Henry’s law but all he had to do was ask his colleague Andrew Stock for help – Stock was a top of class chemical engineer at Univ of Adelaide. Perhaps Steffen is so uninformed on the solubility of gases in solutions that he didn’t realize a chemical engineer could help him out.
41
Steffen is the only hard science person in Flannery’s set of climate commissioners, unless you count dead Kangaroo specialist Tim. Engineers and bureaucrats who would not know chemistry. So I thought he might make a comment on what to a chemist is simple gas/liquid equilibrium. He of all people knows you cannot unilaterally change one side of an equilibrium, but he said nothing. As Jo points out, it is Steffen with the predictions of doom, the outrageous statements, the endless predictions of armageddon and extreme events. In not answering my question, he answered it. Ignorance is not an excuse.
20
Another propaganda method commonly used: model a ‘potential’ decline in something based on climate change, and then state there is a 1 in 100 billion chance this ‘potential’ decline, based on climate change, isn’t due to climate change, all whilst the actual trend of such is increasing.
If I hadn’t seen this nonsense published, I wouldn’t have believed it was possible to say such things with a straight face, but it’s there. Science has simply lost its way.
https://theconversation.com/changing-climate-has-stalled-australian-wheat-yields-study-71411.
Check these graphs below to show the actual increasing trend (in this case Australian wheat production). So much for the ‘1 in 100 billion’.
http://www.indexmundi.com/agriculture/?country=au&commodity=wheat&graph=production-growth-rate
http://www.indexmundi.com/agriculture/?country=au&commodity=wheat&graph=production
111
Science has not lost its way at all. What you are talking about simply cannot be classified as science.
60
Thinga and James.
In a nutshell!!
And the driving force, as always and as described by Terence @ 3.2 above: the capacity to obtain easy money from the common pool while simultaneously presenting the image of being a downtrodden victim.
Have we made any real progress as a civilization in the last 2,000 years or has manipulation of others really become the epitome of progress.
Thou shalt not st$$l.
61
The problem when everyone has smart phones us fake news can be disseminated very efficiently and quickly, and because everyone with a smart phone who isnt bright now thinks they are smart coz they have access to info via search engines. People are being trained to be shallow thinkers and dont do research. Lufe is also busier now , so for your average punter, they just skim the surface of knowkedge, so the fastest most popular “news” sites are king…and most if them are alarmist…we need to speak to people face to face more to get the facts out….
40
35.4 was achieved for the first NINE days of March at Perth Regional – and the ninth day was the hottest, at 37.8. Problem for Will, that was in 1921. (I peeped down the memory hole, naughty me.)
Fight Green Blob!
The Blob shall not pass!
Ecrazez le Blob Vert!
171
I may be wrong but all of the cyclones this year so far have died as soon as they were named .
110
Then stop naming them?
Geoff
80
Geoff why do they name a cyclone before it forms , is it just to say we had xxxxxx cyclones this year and that proves CAGW .
31
Just you wait until cyclone Lazarus gets going again in four days………..
60
Must have a virus on my iPad , last two threads have the same comments and it looks like six hours behind .
30
That is because your ipad was not vaccinated.
No jab, no play (according to Chairman Mal).
50
OT , but Libs , Labs and greens are falling over each other to push his offer of battery storage to fix SA’s power problem .
We are doomed in this country .
60
Of course the South Australian Libs. Labor and Greens are in favour of Elon Musk’s money grab. They all believe in CLIMATE CHANGE© and all believe in spending as much public money as they can lay their hands on. Lack of commensense prevents them realising that the scheme is useless but as a quick fix it sounds promising and is expensive so what more could the public want? Intelligence, sound technical appraisal, an actual solution? I see the new Conservative Party is making noises about putting up candidates in the election next year; obviously sensing a need for a different aproach – sorely needed.
To be far to the Leader of the Opposition he actually turned up in our electorate last week and announced a policy! It was spending money but not much and on a problem that would get worse due to current government policy and inaction.
30
Elon Musk must laugh himself silly every night. He is the one person who has made a stupid amount of money out of stupid people. I don’t feel sorry for the people at all, just the ones the politicians steal from. They are the losers out of all of this.
10
Mark M posted the perfect link in response to jo’s thread –
“Cyclone Blanche is latest to cross land in second consecutive quiet season in Australian history”
it is packed with CAGW anomalies!
my fave bits:
Dr Andrew Watkins the manager of climate prediction services at the bureau, said scientists are, at present, trying to get to the bottom of exactly what happened.
He said it has also attracted intrigue from international meteorologists, with visitors from the United States and the United Kingdom travelling to Australia to try to work out just what is going on.
“This year, we’re not in an El Nino, we were heading into a neutral pattern, so we were saying it would be an average to above average season,” Dr Watkins said.
“We would have expected 11 or above and to only have three so far is fascinating.
“We’re fascinated by why this season has been so benign.”
They have a few theories, Dr Watkins said, and are presently crunching the data to get to the bottom of it.
“There are several theories and at the moment the data is pouring in from satellites and everywhere,” he said.
“We have here or four ideas and we want to test each one of them out.
But could it be a sign of things to come?
In other words, could it be the impact of climate change is already being felt?…
But it seems it’s not just Australian scientists the always unpredictable Mother Nature is perplexing this season.
“The whole southern hemisphere is having one of its quietest cyclone seasons on record,” Dr Watkins said.
“Everywhere is missing out…
“But the weather gods have stepped in and we are diagnosing as we speak to try and understand it better.”
haven’t laughed so much in years.
133
Pat,
Maybe we see reverse causation.
Maybe the present cyclone state is the normal state.
Maybe 20 years ago was the anomalous state. Maybe for the state, the normal should be the abnormal and a new normal calculated for the state with error admitted for the state of the wrong state anomaly calculation.
If you can see what I mean.
Geoff
40
Could we simplify all that verbosity from Andy Watkins [ Ok, Ok I know! Verbosity! Look who is posting this ! ] in Mark M’s post @ #1.
Say as per;
Our predictions were total crap and we haven’t a clue why.
But give us time and as BOM’s expert scientists at this sort of thing we will come up with an even bigger bucket of complete but sciency sounding fake crap to explain why our crap predictions in the first place were such total crap.
50
Time for a conference.Mass fly in to Noosa of meteorological airheads.A week of fine seafood and good Riesling and we can solve the problem. I’ll be blunt;their medium term forecasts have been useless for years.
10
11 Mar: Weather Channel: Brian Donegan: Record Cold Grips Alaska, Tests Iditarod Race Participants
Record-cold temperatures more than 30 below zero have gripped Alaska during its annual Iditarod Trail Sled Dog Race from Settler’s Bay to Nome, and it has been a challenge for mushers and volunteers to keep warm.
Wednesday was the third consecutive day with a low temperature of 38 degrees below zero or colder in Fairbanks. This has only happened three other times in March – 1956, 1959 and 1992 – according to Rick Thoman, climate science and services manager for the National Weather Service’s Alaska region…
According to Alaskan climatologist Dr. Brian Brettschneider, the temperature for the start of Iditarod Monday in Fairbanks was minus 19 degrees, by far the coldest since its origin in 1973. The average high and low this time of year are 21 degrees and minus 7 degrees, respectively…
“I don’t care where you’re from, (near) 40 below is cold,” Rick Gray, an Iditarod volunteer who has braved Alaska’s brutal winters for over three decades, told KTVA-TV…
The first week of March in mainland Alaska was the coldest since 2007, Brettschneider told weather.com. Only four other years since 1950 were colder.
https://weather.com/news/weather/news/record-cold-alaska-iditarod-march-2017
9 Mar: Alaska Dispatch News: Tegan Hanlon: Frostbitten hands, chilled feet from Iditarod cold snap test mushers’ resolve
“The skin is frozen inside of that glove. It froze there,” said the fourth-generation Alaskan who lives in McGrath and who pulled into Tanana at 6:46 a.m. Wednesday…
55 below
While traveling on the Tanana River, Carson said his thermometer read 55 below. He kept water bottles tucked inside of his insulated coveralls to keep them from freezing and to stay hydrated. He kept his sled dog team in jackets and fed them fat along the trail — chicken fat, beaver fat, beef fat and tripe.
“We were going to camp, but it was just too cold,” said Carson, a 60-year-old Iditarod rookie. “I’ve got my thermometer on my sled and I’m looking at it going, ‘Oh, baby.'”…
“It’s been a challenge,” said Iditarod musher Monica Zappa, of Kasilof, as she massaged the back of her sled dog, 3-year-old Big Horn. “We’re just hoping it warms up. That would certainly be ideal for everybody.”…
Zoya DeNure, of Delta Junction, said she couldn’t keep her feet warm during her team’s eight-hour run at 50 below to the checkpoint here…
“Everybody keeps saying it’s going to warm up, so we’re just looking forward to that and having a lot of faith that it will,” she said…
https://www.adn.com/outdoors-adventure/iditarod/2017/03/08/frostbitten-hands-chilled-feet-from-iditarod-cold-snap-tests-mushers-resolve/
51
how utterly predictable!
12 Mar: ABC: Elon Musk, Malcolm Turnbull in talks on renewables after billionaire’s ‘100 days or it’s free’ pledge
Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull says he has held a “great in depth discussion” with Elon Musk, after the billionaire tech entrepreneur offered to fix South Australia’s energy problems within 100 days…
Twitter was again the preferred medium of communication on Sunday, with Mr Musk and Mr Turnbull swapping appreciative tweets after speaking for nearly an hour…
TWEET, TWEET, TWEET
South Australia suffered a statewide blackout last September, while during a recent heatwave customers were intentionally blacked out because there was not enough power to meet demand.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-12/elon-musk-malcolm-turnbull-in-talks-on-renewables/8347554\
51
Ah, I see Tweetiepie Turnbull’s plan. Once the green fad passes those stealthy diesel submarines will be used to cart away tons of old Tesla batteries and dump them on Indonesian islands or float them to the bottom of the Marianas Trench. There’ll be nothing left but the debt…and what’s a bit of debt these days?
But I do wish wish Elon would wear a boater and checked suit with bow tie, just like his inspiration and mentor.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LI_Oe-jtgdI
70
Turnbull who? He will lead the party to one of the biggest landslide defeats of any election in history. Any Liberal member who doesn’t see that is brainless. Abbott knows this of course and I’m sure there are others in the party who also see the writing on the wall.
50
Pat – I think you will find that that article was a spoof – written by Alan Kohler. It was quite funny and sounded much like the waffler himself, prevarication and innuendo. Have a read.
20
can’t imagine PM Turnbull having an hour-long phone conversation with any of these people. lengthy, read all:
12 Mar: Herald Sun: Ashley Argoon: Latrobe Valley braces for closure of Hazelwood Power Station
Generations of families have spent their lives in mines and stations to power a state.
But now, that same state dismisses the fuel as dirty.
As men and women in suits two hours away on Spring St or a flight away in Canberra squabble over renewables versus coal, a Valley built on it is waiting for answers…
MARK Rowles hasn’t been sleeping well.
“You don’t stop thinking about the damn bloody thing, 24 hours a day,” the Hazelwood unit controller says.
And he’s not the only one.
Mark is a relief shift manager at the power station.
“That position has basically gone from a manager of the power station to full time counsellor,” he says.
“The guys, they’re just beside themselves.
“We’ll be talking about work one minute and all of a sudden it leads to the fact we’ll be out of a job, they start pouring their heart out.”…
The community has already created a transition plan.
They’ve handed it to government.
And they don’t think the writing is on the wall for coal just yet.
“You’re relying on a fairly significant load being taken out of our baseload system with Hazelwood’s closure with no backup,” Ms O’Callaghan says.
“There’s going to be an awful lot of people turn around when we have our first lot of brownouts and then go to blackouts … I’ve got my generator, what are you going to do?”
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/latrobe-valley-braces-for-closure-of-hazelwood-power-station/news-story/6b1aed1404b4936896320686b9119f6d
71
Since Victoria will now lose some 20% of the power generation capacity the obvious thing to do is to not supply SA with any power when Victoria’s demand reaches high levels. I think it’s only fair since SA keeps saying it’s proud of leading the country on the renewables push so let them practice what they preach. On the other hand if Victoria wants to go down the same path then perhaps they can share the blackouts. I’m sure the Victorians would be willing to sacrifice their power to there fellow South Australian dimwits.
50
heart-breaking tale from La Trobe Valley/Hazelwood closure has gone into moderation.
30
Via the GWPF;
Die Welt 11 March 2017
GERMAN MINISTER ANNOUNCES END OF UNILATERAL CLIMATE TARGETS
Trump; Germany, Marine Le Pen of France, the EU backing off of the so called Climate Change Agreement and etc and etc!
ITS OVER!
140
It’s not over in Australia yet. Don’t relax or take your eye off the ball.
Be sure that the recent promotion of no pause and record ice loss and high temps in Antarctica were factors in the West Australian election result.
They are still applying maximum effort to bring down Trump.
90
Cunning.
Get out of the Global Warming business and back to reality without actually being seen as a Denier.
I really admire politicians.
50
BOM’s soothsayers bids you “Beware the Ides of March”,
Predicting deluge droughts and floods that parch.
This paranormal bureau, now a fortune teller,
With sophisticated hokum as its primary seller,
Spreads fear, uncertainty, and doubt that crush all hopes,
As they divine forecasts full of horror-scopes.
90
I can’t help myself here so forgive me Jo and readers.
Isn’t it funny how the English language or maybe more correctly, those who use it and often abuse it can cause new terms to pop up out of almost nothing and suddenly spread clear around the world in just days. Until Donald Trump said, “…fake news…,” I had never heard the term. Now suddenly here it is used to describe something that, while it surely isn’t on the up-and-up, would never have been described this way until Trump gave birth to little baby Fake News.
So here I am, chuckling and laughing at the speed at which such new terminology gets coined, adopted and spreads at something close to the speed of light. And once again my dictionary and the English lexicon have become obsolete and need updating. Anyone got a good rigorous definition? 😉
60
None of that is to say that what Jo is talking about doesn’t meet the requirements to be “fake news”. Oh my aching head! When will they stop padding the figures to make the alarm ever more dreadful?
50
Actually it was the demogogs that first coined the term to strike out at conservative publishers, Trump has just cleverly coopted the term and used it to his advantage. It is a brilliant piece of politics done to perfection
70
Like ‘virtue signalling.’ )
60
It once was called “propaganda”. Meaning: publishing a lie in such a way it appears to be true. Then repetitiously publishing it until it is accepted as true by the target audience.
The primary difference with “fake news” is that it is a false to fact politically correct talking point for the opposition party. Its target audience is everyone else who mostly couldn’t care less and don’t really pay attention to it.
The “fake news” is fabricated just in time to be a “big hit” on all the Sunday morning News and Commentary network shows. After which, the commentary itself becomes the focus of the news media until roughly mid week.
The latest “fake news” then fades into the background to be replaced by the next bit of “fake news”. Rinse and repeat endlessly until the opposition party takes over the government again.
Guess why the news network’s ratings are dropping faster than rocks pushed off a cliff. They no longer present the news its simply nothing but talking points.
80
Lionell,
In this case the explanation isn’t needed. I would have recognized her by her name that’s been around for as long as the human race has been around, Ima Lie.
40
The Story of Propaganda by The American Historical Association, other information is in the list on the left.
20
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_lie
“…that in the big lie there is always a certain force of credibility; because the broad masses of a nation are always more easily corrupted in the deeper strata of their emotional nature than consciously or voluntarily; and thus in the primitive simplicity of their minds they more readily fall victims to the big lie than the small lie, since they themselves often tell small lies in little matters but would be ashamed to resort to large-scale falsehoods.
It would never come into their heads to fabricate colossal untruths, and they would not believe that others could have the impudence to distort the truth so infamously. Even though the facts which prove this to be so may be brought clearly to their minds, they will still doubt and waver and will continue to think that there may be some other explanation. For the grossly impudent lie always leaves traces behind it, even after it has been nailed down, a fact which is known to all expert liars in this world and to all who conspire together in the art of lying.
— Adolf Hitler, Mein Kampf, vol. I, ch. X[1]
30
the sad part Lionel is even the word propaganda has been twisted.. it once meant ‘information’ no matter whether it was true or otherwise – the connotation was applied after the wars when people clicked most of the propaganda supplied to them was false
http://www.etymonline.com/index.php?term=propaganda (propagation of information)
30
Honestly guys! I never heard that term until Donald Trump said it. But no matter as far as I can see. Here it is in all it’s glory, no matter why. And frankly, with that being he case, Bob, I have to wonder if it wouldn’t have languished in obscurity if Trump had not picked it up and used it to his advantage.
It all leaves me thinking about the possibilities if I was to come up with some clever twist or turn on everyday usage. I might be famous for for saying it. But probably not. I don’t have The Donald’s name recognition to get started with. Nuts! 🙁
Maybe I should start paying more attention to the demagogues that I try to ignore? 😉
30
Roy here’s Mark Steyn on Trumps fake news media tweet in February, it is indeed the enemy of the American people.
50
I think the NY Times used it first. To try to discredit the non-YSM. However, the “non-YSM” quickly demonstrated the mistakes of both the NY Times and other so called YSM outlets. To the point that, like “deplorables”, it became a handy reference to those who coined the term.
So much so, that the NY Times decided to ‘drop’ the usage of the term. However, it had already gained its own life, and continues. And it continues to be a thorn in the side of the YSM since they have decided that lurid stories with no basis in fact, are more important than actual reporting.
00
Too right Lionell , but propaganda has been going on for thousands of years , not just since the left wing revolution in Victorian times , its all about pushing ideology , whether its religious or political ideology , I am a non believer , but am willing to accept that since the reformation Christian judeo values have shaped the west for the better of our society’s . but don’t tell me that modern attempts to control populations via ideology are any better than those in the past such as the Roman Emperor Constantine that set up a centralised religion that dominated Europe for a thousand years and created a feudal system that controlled the minds of the population , ideology is what it is , that’s why I voted Brexit and support Donald Trump , if you are a libertarian and believe in freedom you just have to do everything in your power to destroy the ideology of the likes of Barak Obama
70
That is why dictators of all kinds have worked to keep the masses uneducated and/or ignorant. The masses will more easily believe the propaganda and submit themselves to the dictator’s whims. A well educated mass who can use reason will not be so easily mislead and turned into sacrificial goats.
60
Bingo , you get it , think about that , why did Constantine centralise religion , why did all roads lead to Rome , how did we end up with a feudal system that lasted a thousand years until the days of enlightenment when the church became independent of the state
60
I am not a man of faith , but I do accept that judeo Christian values have shaped the modern world for the better , now is the time when we need to stand up for our people or sink into the void trying
50
‘…judeo Christian values have shaped the modern world for the better ….’
This is debatable, the European Christians exploited African slave labour and seized their raw resources to develop wealth.
As John Cleese famously remarked, what did the Romans ever do for us besides viaducts and clean drinking water, Judeo Christian law seems to work quite well.
40
You seem to answer your own question rather well!
00
“
To save money and keep another avenue for political intrigue closed.
The Roman Government had the office of Pontifax Maximus who was the Pontiff (high priest) of the College of Pontiffs. The Roman pantheon could be called “rich” in the same way Microsoft refers to word processor features, with the need to recognise the Pontiffs (high prriests) of the temples of many gods and goddesses, and acknowledge and interface with them. The College of Pontiffs became highly politicised over the years, as anything which could get some attention from the Head of State and, especially, “grants” from the State coffers is liable to do (cf today’s IPCC). Augustus (reign 27BC to 14AD) swept the office into his government as the central representative, not just the high priest of high priests, and the College faded away. But not the temples.
The appearance of the Christian religion meant a new god competing for the government purse. The first persecution of the Christians was organised during Nero’s Office in 84AD after the Great Fire of Rome. Perhaps they were a handy scapegoat? I don’t know. The persecution ended in 313AD after the Edict of Milan.
Constantine called the first Council of Nicea in 325AD. This was a unification council which sorted out and laid down in concrete and great detail, the tenets of The Church as a single doctrine, as the early Christians were pretty splintered and the splintering was mostly over matters of doctrine.
(The Apocrypha make for mostly boring reading but some of the doctrinal disagreements and wars therein spice them up! Doctrinal arguments spanned centuries, so our Climate Disagreements are very young and juvenile stuff in comparison.)
Constantine wanted a single unified faith to adopt as an official national religion to avoid repeating the expensive “mistake” and the political plotting of the College of Pontiffs. The Council of Nicea mostly delivered.
30
Thanks Sophocles.
Very informative.
I have the History of Christianity (Geoffrey Blainey), by my bedside to read. I am looking forward to improving my knowledge in this area.
30
sophocles:
Nero died in 68AD. 69AD was ‘the year of 4 emperors’ Galba, Otho, Vitellus and Vespasian, The last one was sane.
30
Correct. i typed 84 AD, it should hve been 64AD.
This time it wasn’t my keyboard but my #@$%^&* eyesight.
Sigh.
00
I’m not convinced educating the masses has helped all that much.
Just consider the education standards compared to medieval times.
Here we are in 2017 and great swathes of people think that CO2 is going to destroy the planet . . and that we, the supposedly educated people are to blame!
50
Please note the education in question was controlled by the government. It is the interest of government to keep the population incapable of rational thought. Thereby keeping them more docile and easy to control. This allows government to aggrandize power and reach without limit until it consumes all.
A well educated person demands to be free from government coercion applied to person, property, and effects. He is docile nor so easily controlled. Thus he will strive to limit the power and reach of government to the absolute minimum necessary.
30
Correction: “He is neither docile nor so easily controlled.”
20
Lionell said:
In a despotic tyranny, perhaps. But in a democracy? A government of the people, by the people, for the people? If you do not participate fully in your democracy as a democratic citizen, then you deserve that sort of government. Education of its citizens children so that they can join the democracy and become democratically involved in it, is one of the primary obligations of a democratic government..
Underfunding and under resourcing of education is one of the ways of destroying a democracy. You should know that. You should be standing up and fighting that. Are you? Or are you cheering the outsourcing of education to those who want to pocket the money without delivering what they should?
10
Raven said:
Don’t worry Raven. You’re not alone in your thinking.
I will point out that both Socrates and Plato thought the same about the standards of those who followed them. That was 2634 years ago.
The more things change, the more they stay the same.
00
Ideology is the scourge of the earth , it always has been , reject it in all its forms , because its always been a means by how the few can control the many
20
It is seen so often. One single day with a high temperature at any time, is the sign of warming or climate change.
But a single low temperature is never mentioned as sign of anything but weather.
They like to be called climate scientists, but why can’t they then just wait 10 to 30 years to see if it has anything to do with climate.
Besides that i hear that Elon Musk has promised to install 100MW batteries.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/mar/10/elon-musk-i-can-fix-south-australia-power-network-in-100-days-or-its-free
I hope they have sufficient electricity to fill up the batteries for low times.
80
Is it any different , from Constantine , inviting worshippers from pagan faiths like Apollo , Mythras or Isis and HORUS to decide what went into the New Testament , at the councils of Nicia , compared to the modern day councils at Paris , were they ask Christens if they believe in stewardship of the earth
70
One of the problems with the Musk offer is that we will have to pay. It’s the old salesman’s trick. If Turnbull, the self appointed genius, accepts the offer, it will always do something, so he will always have to pay. You see if it fails miserably, he will not admit it and we will have to pay because of Turnbull’s pride. Either way Musk gets paid, gets fame and Turnbull claims credit and the people of Australia pay for the egos of two men.
This is a bit like the awful windmills themselves. Weatherill will never admit they are are a complete waste of our money because sometimes, when you do not need them, when the wind blows a little but not too much, they do work. A little. At a cost to the public of $3Bn a year, of course they work. A bit. There are whole departments and career politicians whose jobs and perks and million dollar salaries depend on the useless windmills working. It’s shutting down and blowing up of working power stations which is the crime against Australia.
140
So the biggest charge from a Musk battery is monetary, gives a whole new meaning to energy density doesn’t it?
90
In this respect, Andrew Bolt references Tony from Oz’s work that in the last few weeks Hazelwood produced more electricity than all of Australia’s $30Bn windfarms together. So in three weeks it is being closed because it produces poisonous polluting carbon dioxide.
Of course the windfarms cost 30x more than Hazelwood and Hazelwood works steadily 24/7, not just when the wind blows the right amount or the sun shines. In fact you could build a new Hazelwood every year with the RET taxation but thanks to the RET, Hazelwood will close in three weeks and Hazelwood is privately owned.
There is no greater commentary on appalling Green politics than to force Australia’s cheapest power station to close, because it is old and outputs CO2. So do I. So do you. Hazelwood is called old because it is between 45 and 53 years old. Close everything. That’s the way to keep your seat in parliament. The Preferences game. Our politicians are a disgrace, weasels.
110
I had a slight problem convincing Andrew it was actually correct, so I added the links to where the data comes from to my Post.
However, I have a slight problem myself that I could put down to either brain fade or a senior moment, and it concerns a mathematics convention, and I remember being taught this in High School. I have always use the one convention in working out percentages, and I’m not sure if it’s the right one, so perhaps someone could help me out here.
Okay then, what I want to do is to find out how much more (in percentage terms) Hazelwood generates as opposed to ALL the wind plants in Australia.
Over the last 11 days, Hazelwood has averaged 1340MW of power delivery, and all Australian wind have averaged 1147MW.
Now when it comes to working out how much more Hazelwood is delivering in percentage terms, I just divided Wind (1147) by Hazelwood (1340) and then multiplied by 100, to give me a percentage, giving a resultant of 85.597, so wind is generating only 85.6% of what Hazelwood is generating, and from that, then Hazelwood is generating 14.4% more than wind. (the difference between 100% and 85.6%)
However, if I do it the other way around, divide Hazelwood (1340) by wind (1147) and then multiply by 100, I get a resultant of 116.826, or 116.8%, so Hazelwood is generating 16.8% more than wind.
So, two results (14.4% and 16.8%)
See the point.
It’s a Maths thing that gives two different results from the same totals to begin with, depending upon which convention you use.
All along I have been using the one which gives the lesser total.
So, which one is the correct convention to use, now you can see that the same totals give different results?
Tony,
30
Tony,
Dividing wind by Hazelwood gives you the % that wind is generating compared to Hazelwood = 85.6% useng Hazelwood as the base reference ie full/100%
Dividing Hazelwood by wind gives you the comparable % of wind Hazelwood is generating = 116.82% using wind as the base reference ie full/100%.
I hope…
20
Okay, so using Hazelwood as the base, then at 85.6%, wind is generating 14.4% less than Hazelwood. Is that the same as saying Hazelwood is generating 14.4% more than wind.
See the point here?
It’s the same thing I was puzzled over. What to use as the base, in this case Hazelwood or wind. I learned it in High School maths, but I can’t remember which one it was.
I mean, using wind as the base, that gives Hazelwood a higher percentage, because (and using the same figures) it comes to 16.8%.
Tony.
20
It’s not just these set of figures.
Look at this simple one.
(a) generates 100, and (b) generates 80.
100, and 80.
Look at it and you can do it in your head.
(a) generates 20% more than (b) but in reality it’s that (b) generates only 80% of what (a) generates.
Now do the Maths using 80 as the base, and the result shows that (a) generates 25% more than (b)
I’m probably reading too much into it. It was just a quirk I noticed the other day. It all depends on which one you use as the base
Tony.
20
It’s all in the position of the observer relative to the observation.
You are using two different points of reference that have different values.
Hazelwood generates 1340MW and wind generates 1147MW.
Hazelwood generates 193MW more than wind.
Wind generates 193MW less than wind.
So in this example the constant of 193MW is the position of the observer.
The observer sees that Hazelwood generates 193MW/1147MW x 100 = 16.82% more than wind.
The observer then sees wind generates 193/1340 x 100 = 14.4% less than Hazelwood.
30
Probably correct to use wind as the base reference which shows Hazelwood generates 16.82% more power than wind.
40
Tony
The answer lies in your comaparison of the two values and this depends on whether you are considering a reduction in value or an increase in value.
For example in your comparison of Hazelwood (1340) vs Wind (1147)
Reduction from Hazelwood to Wind will result in a 14.4% reduction
(1340-1147)/1340 = 193/1340 = .144 or 14.4%
Whereas:
An increase from Wind to Hazelwood will result in a 16.8% increase
(1340-1147)/1147 = 193/1147 = 0.168 or 16.8% (abs(1147 – 1340)/1147)
It may seem paradoxical that if we start with 1340 and subtract 14.4%, we
get 1147, but to get back to 1340 we have to add 16.8%.
The reason these percentages are different is that they are
percentages of different amounts, 14.4% of 1340, and 16.8% of 1147 both are equal to 193
So I would more than likely say “we need an additional 16.8% more wind turbines or additional 16.8% more wind”. Alternatively, “we need a reduction of 14.4% electricty from the Hazelwood plant”
I hope this helps you.
Regards
Climate Heretic
20
Incidentally, it was interesting to watch (via the data) what happened last night, Sunday night.
On Friday night at around 9PM, Unit two dropped off line. I sort of expected that to mean the end for Unit 2, as with the plant closing in three weeks, then there was no need to fix it up.
However, at around 7PM last night, Unit 8 dropped off line and wound down over a two hour period.
At the same time as Unit 8 was winding down, Unit 2 wound back up to its full power delivery of 180MW, reaching that total at around the same time as Unit 8 wound back to zero power delivery.
So, that kept the status quo of seven of the eight units running.
It shows me that whatever work was being done to get Unit 8 back up took a little while, and then it came back up on line again, after two days.
It shows just how finely tuned these hulking power plants are, that they can still professionally operate a 53 year old ancient power plant to keep things going as best they can.
Tony.
70
Tony, both are true at the same time. 14.4% and 16.8% are both correct. This is a trap for all people using ratios. If you increase something by a quarter, to get back to where you started you have to decrease by a fifth. 5/4 and 4/5 cancel out. 25% increase followed by a 20% decrease because they are % of different base figures, the second one bigger.
Mathematically the 1/(1+x) = = 1 – x + x^2 – x^3 + x^4 – x^5 + x^6 – x^7 + x^8 – x^9 + x^10 – x^11 + x^12 – x^13 + x^14 …
However if x is very small, say 1%, the x^2 term does not matter. A 1% increase is almost identical to a 1% decrease. This is very handy, that the reciprocal of 1.01 is 0.99. The difference is 1% of 1%, negligible.
Once you start to talk about 15%, the difference is 15% of 15% or 2.25% where you have 2.4% as you have noted.
This is where mental arithmetic can get you caught with big percentages. If you increase something 100%, you only have to reduce 50% to get back to the original. It looks wrong but the base for the percentage is twice as big.
30
I that when people use % they do not notice the basis. A 10% reduction is numerically identical to a 10% increase, 90 vs 110.
However the 10 is only 9% of the new base of 110. So when you compare %, you have to maintain the same base and when you express %, you have to be clear what is the base. Then there is no problem. People choose the smaller base if they want to exaggerate, the larger one if they want to suggest a smaller effect.
This is true of fossil fuel CO2. Warmist say CO2 has increased 50% since 1900. However that means it is only 33% of current CO2. My endless point is that C14 should reduce 33% and it has not, so there is virtually no fossil fuel in the air and there is no reason to close Hazelwood at all.
50
When this came up, and I found it myself, I debated whether to explain it or not, and as I had been using it for 11 days now, (well, all my life really) I just decided to leave it as it is.
What I then did was to wonder about the actual power delivered, instead of just using the thing that most people would recognise, the average Nameplate, hence that 1340MW versus 1147MW.
When you use actual power delivered the result is even more startling.
So far, in just 11 days, Hazelwood has delivered 353.76GWH of power.
All the wind plants in Australia have only delivered 302.8GWH.
That’s a difference of 51GWH. (and incidentally, the percentages remain the same here)
Now, breaking that down, and using the same false meme that Wind power always uses to pretend their plants can actually deliver, that breaks down to 31,000,000KWH, enough power to run 177,000 homes for those 11 days.
Tony.
50
See what happens when you rush things, and read the number incorrectly, and your finger on the plastic brain leaves off a zero, and then forget that it’s over 11 days, so the result needs to be divided by 11. (my bolding here)
That second figure should be 51,000,000KWH, hence enough to power 265,000 homes.
Mea culpa.
Astonishing, isn’t it.
Tony.
30
Tony, those figures deserve a wider mainstream audience. You should send them to the Bolta and let him do a follow-up post to your original PA Pundit article. With luck they might even find their way onto his TV slot.
When you express it as 265,000 homes for 11 days it has a lot more impact on readers than a GWH figure or a simple average that is too abstract for folk to get their heads around.
Do you plan on following Hazelwood’s production V wind production right to the death?
00
Yes!
Right up to the scheduled closure date, and, by nature of a hunch, beyond that date, just to see if the plant does close, or just gets phased down.
Oddly, even though I’m following Hazelwood, the exercise of following wind for this same period is also interesting, because it has shown me that even though Hazelwood is generating 14% more than all the wind power, that wind power is actually running at around the average of 30%. In fact, so far, after 12 days, wind has good days and bad days, but is actually running at 29%, almost right on the average.
So Hazelwood with seven units running is still generating more than all the wind. All wind at the average of 30% (of 3900MW) is 1170MW, while the 7 Units currently operational at 53 year old Hazelwood is 1197MW
Meanwhile, the nearby Loy Yang has all 6 units running delivering 3128MW of power.
Tony.
30
Indeed, thinking musically moving a frequency up scale by 100% is to go up an octave, as you point out, moving from the same start frequency down scale 50% (also) moves the frequency by one octave down.
This is often lost on the single C-note AGW chorus as they are not even or well tempered mathematically.
🙂
10
Turbull will lead his party over the cliff at the next election if he is still their leader. So there is no point worrying bout his “ideas” for our future. They are fictitious and will be moot even if they change leaders and manage to return and form government again.
70
We will be over the cliff. Malcolm will have retired, as if he cares. His ego is satisfied and his place in history and he will have destroyed his rival. What else matters?
50
Yes you are correct near term. Turnbull and his cohorts will laugh all the way to the bank. Well he did laugh all the way from Goldman Sachs so that will make him even laugh more when he is gone and we crash and burn. We the Australian public will suffer the consequences of the actions of both major parties. Then again the public keep voting them back in so they actually deserve what’s coming. Many lessons will be taught to the vast majority of voters in the not too distant future. Too bad there’s not a better way but unfortunately there isn’t.
40
It looks like Turnbull is a battery storage true believer and Musk has been telling him what to think.
http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-12/elon-musk-malcolm-turnbull-in-talks-on-renewables/8347554?pfmredir=sm
30
That infamous lack of judgement again
80
Malcolm poses as a technologist because of Ozemail. In fact that was the brainchild of Australian Personal Computer founder Sean Howard. He sold APC to Packer but bought Ozemail back for $1. Banker Lawyer Malcolm (his great wealth was inherited as an only child when his real estate developer father died at 53 in a plane crash) put in $500K, made himself chairman and soon picked up $50Million in the dotcom insanity when US telephone giant MCI paid cash. MCI soon went bust but it was a great windfall for both Howard and Turnbull. Howard bought an island. Turnbull made himself Prime Minister.
So I would not put it past Malcolm to buy fame from Musk with our money. There’s no more courageous risk taker than someone in charge of other people’s money. It would put Malcolm on the world stage, win or fail and by definition it will always work a bit, like windmills. Once again, Malcolm the technical entrepreneur, genius, risk taker, saviour and friend of the Greens and Hanson and anyone else who will help him keep his job. I had thought with Rudd there could be only one. There are two.
50
Alarmists would never refuse,
Any chance to push warmist views,
That man’s warming of Earth,
Might be measured in Perth,
Being experts in fake climate news.
120
I challenged someone to name two positive policy’s from either the Libs , Labs or one nation from the west Aussie election , they couldn’t name one .
I then asked for any criticism they heard about what a politician had said about any party and all I got was , oh it was on the news about Hansen having trouble with candidates , and Hansen said something stupid about vaccinations, and Hansen said this or Hansen said that .
So the msm controls the political landscape in this country not the voters , not saying the whole outcome can be blamed on msm but it surely can’t help .
80
I read that the storage facility Musk set-up in California will store enough energy to power 15000 homes for 4 hours. No doubt an exaggerated figure, probably calculated on electricity used by the average home between the hours of midnight and 4am – a lot of money for 4 hours storage and what about heavy industry? They’ll flatten the batteries before anyone can “holler for a Marshall”. Other facilities quote storage times of 7 minutes. Completely useless – should appeal to Malcolm.
61
If I had the power I would make a law that would send people to prison for a minimum of 10 years for making predictions about the climate and presenting them as though they are factual. Climate change predictions are still pure fantasy. One day we will have the understanding and computing power to make accurate predictions but we are certainly not there now.
41
Here’s an idea. Some entrepreneurs could build a giant floating ultrasupercritical coal plant and moor it in international waters off Australia. It would be powered by coal exported from Australia and electricity would be sent to Australia via undersea cables. It would work because there is no prohibition of coal exports except brown coal, and no CO2 would be released in Australia.
Thoughts?
71
Sorry, I intended that as a new post, not a reply.
21
Bloody good idea with lots of advantages in the present political anti-coal, anti-energy , anti-living standards betterment, anti-development, anti-industry, anti-low income citizens, anti-rural. pro big government. pro nanny state, pro tax, tax and more tax governments in Australia and across the western world.
The Russians are doing it with a their floating nuclear power generators used for their Arctic river located towns across the northern Russian / Siberian territories so why not for coal fired plants.
And if the governments whack a few extra taxes on, just disconnect the lines and drive off to wherever the next outfit is willing to pay for reliable always on power at a satisfactory compensation price.
And if coal prices are taxed by governments just source the coal from another source.
Maybe it is coming in the form of nuclear in any case which will really destroy all the greens and progressives abject ideological lust to shut down anything that might lead to some moderate comforts for the citizenery as a whole .
Floating nuclear power plants: China is far from first
31
A nasty thought – enough Russian floating nuclear power stations in the Arctic would melt the floating ice. Being stationed near land the effect would be to open up a shipway for east – west shipping. The Greens will be so hot under the collar and generating so much hot air that we really would have Global Warming. The only quick, if short term, solution to the crisis would be to station Al Gore on the ice shelf surrounded by hungry polar bears.
Australia must do its part to keep that solution going. I nominate Jay Weatherdill, Dopey Dave, MT, Christopher Pyne, Greg Hunt, and De Natali as bodyguards for Al Gore. Other Greens, P. Wong. Nick Xenophon should be held in reserve for when the bears get peckish again. If the bears get too aggressive or numerous then we should reduce their numbers with a dose of Shorten and/or Flannery.
41
Don’t forget a ship load or two of Alka Selzers for the bears after swallowing that lot!
30
Oh no!
Selzers plus water releases more CO2, what are you thinking of?
/sarcoff
10
12 Mar: Boston Globe: Olivia Arnold: Parts of Mass. could get up to 18 inches of snow Tuesday
Greater Boston was frigid early Sunday, dipping to the day’s lowest predicted temperature of 9 degrees just before 7 a.m. The cold was not record-breaking, however, as it was just 2 degrees shy of the coldest recorded temperature for March 12 of 7 degrees in 1900.
The city is projected to hit a high of 25 degrees later Sunday afternoon – nearly 20 degrees chillier than the average maximum temperature for this date of 44 degrees. There is potential to tie the date’s lowest recorded maximum temperature of 25 degrees in 1984…
Central and eastern Massachusetts are expected to be hit hardest with 12 to 18 inches of snow…
In Greater Boston, snow totals are expected in the higher range of 12 to 18 inches…
Monday’s temperatures are expected to be in the 30s, which Simpson said is well below normal but “not so bad” considering recent intense cold…
And spring? It is just a week away, debuting at 6:29 a.m. on March 20.
https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2017/03/12/winter-reigns-with-spring-just-week-away/Ngea5eLP9ot2bKNXost1PN/story.html
31
This sounds like American temperature, F.
We used to have that here in Australia but it was too hot.
60
12 Mar: Accuweather: Kristina Pydynowski: Bitter cold to grip eastern US after major nor’easter
“Winter will hold a tight grip on the Northeast in wake of the significant snowstorm early this week,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Max Vido said.
A fresh blast of arctic air will plunge southward in the wake of the nor’easter, encompassing nearly the entire eastern half of the nation by midweek.
Highs at midweek will be held below freezing throughout the Great Lakes and Northeast. Temperatures will not rise out of the lower and middle 20s F in the Appalachians, including in Binghamton, New York, and Burlington, Vermont.
“Factoring in the wind, cloud cover and other variables, AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees lower than the actual temperature,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Renee Duff said…
There could be enough snow showers to once again coat roads and create slippery spots on untreated surfaces around the Washington, D.C., area, especially on Tuesday night into Wednesday.
The cold will not be confined to the Northeast. Temperatures will be held 10 to 20 degrees F below normal southward to Tampa and Orlando, Florida.
Wednesday could be the coolest day for Jacksonville, Florida, since late January…
At night, subfreezing temperatures will encompass the South, southward to the I-10 corridor and even to Ocala.
Pipes that are above ground could freeze and burst…
Midweek will feel more like the dead of winter with Nashville; Raleigh and Charlotte, North Carolina; Augusta, Georgia; Birmingham, Alabama; and Jacksonville, Florida, among the many communities that will ***challenge record lows.
However, freezing temperatures are not expected to dip to the citrus regions.
“The freeze will stay in the northern part of Florida, where there is not commercial citrus growers,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dale Mohler said…
Another shot of cold may then plunge into the Northeast next Tuesday and Wednesday.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/bitter-cold-to-grip-eastern-us-after-major-noreaster/70001096
21
8 Mar: Met Office UK blog: What weather can we expect for Easter and May?
There have been some reports in the media that the Met Office has forecast a freezing Easter and icy May for the UK with headlines such as ‘Wild weather is set to hit the UK with a ‘polar vortex’ forecast and temperatures threatening to plummet to as low as -8C in the run up to Easter.’ and ‘The next three months will see March storms, below freezing temperatures in April along with expected snow- before a ‘sizzling May’ with heights of 26C’.
These predictions seem to have been based, in part, on the latest Met Office three month outlook for contingency planners, but our outlooks do not tell us the weather for specific days in the coming months.
The science of long-range forecasting is at the cutting edge of meteorology and the Met Office is leading the way with research in this area. However, with Easter over a month away it is too early to be able to predict the weather with any certainty…ETC
https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2017/03/08/what-weather-can-we-expect-for-easter-and-may/
21
I see that Global Warming / Climate Change is going to hit NE USA very hard indeed over the next couple of days.
Major nor’easter threatens to halt travel from DC to Boston
We surely could lend the Americans the BOM’s Andy Watkins and Will Steffen of the Climate Institute for a few weeks or preferably permanently so as to show the American forecasters how to the handle the technologically difficult task of turning an actual observed “minus” sign in front of a temperature reading into a NOAA certified “plus” sign so as to satisfy the democratic politicians and the progressives lust for another global warming / climate change catastrophe from which they can save America all over again.
50
ROM –
by chance, Chancellor Merkel will meet President Trump at the White House on Tuesday.
MSM were headlining on 10 March that ‘CLIMATE CHANGE’ would be one of the topics discussed, but dropped it from the headlines I saw yesterday.
Trump’s people didn’t seem interested in bringing it up!
10 Mar: White House: Background Press Briefing by Senior Administration Officials on the Upcoming Visit of Chancellor Merkel of Germany
Q You didn’t mention climate in your opening statement. Do you expect that to be a topic of discussion, and what will the President’s message be to Chancellor Merkel about his commitment to either staying in the Paris Agreement or withdrawing from the Paris Agreement?…
SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: It’s quite possible that that will be something that the Chancellor will raise. They don’t know for sure. Internally, the United States is still working on that issue, and that’s an issue that still is to be determined and will be discussed, I’m sure, with the Chancellor, but also further clarified in the weeks and months ahead, as we move forward to the G7 and the G20 ministerials and summit meetings…
12 Mar 6am: WaPo: Brian Jackson: D.C.-area forecast: Accumulating snow likely Monday night
As the storm moves away, lingering snow showers or flurries are possible later Tuesday morning into the afternoon. Highs should rise above freezing into the mid-30s to low 40s with lighter winds. But a hard refreeze is expected Tuesday night as lows drop into the 20s, with winds picking up again from the northwest and a few flurries possible from time to time. Confidence: Medium…
FROM COMMENTS:
JohnnyWB: Typical weather forecaster. 50% this, 50% that. Maybe this, Maybe that. And these are the guys who swear we are in Global Warming, or Climate Change as they now like to call it. Even more double talk than the politicians and the media.
update:
12 Mar 6pm: WaPo: Jason Samenow: Heavy snow likely in D.C. area Monday night, paralyzing blizzard from New York to Boston
Inside the Beltway, 4 to 8 inches is most likely.
Up and down the Interstate 95 corridor, the storm will hit fast but hard. In just 12 hours, it could generate historic snowfall amounts for March in some areas…
The main American forecast model, the GFS, forecasts a large amount of snow for Washington, while the European model – which is the highest performing – suggests a much lower impact event because of rain mixing in…
The storm will fall on the 24th anniversary of the “Blizzard of 93,” the most extreme March storm to hit the East Coast in recorded history. While it won’t be that strong, Monday night’s storm is forecast to explosively intensify or “bomb out” as it charges up the coast, much like that 1993 storm…
A number of forecast models have shown the immediate D.C. area getting buried by snowfall amounts into the double digits.
But others have the region right along the edge of where significant snow starts and stops and suggest the possibility of just a slushy, relatively inconsequential accumulation — especially near the Beltway and to the east and south…
We will need to watch temperatures and temperature forecasts carefully. If they are a little warmer than we’re expecting, the snow we’re calling for will not materialize, especially inside the Beltway and south and east. On the other hand, if they are on the cold side of model predictions, the snow will really pile up…
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/03/12/heavy-snow-likely-in-d-c-area-monday-night-paralyzing-blizzard-from-new-york-to-boston/?utm_term=.464d1b4ef8d4
time will tell…but I hope it SNOWS on the White House. lol.
31
Are you saying you want to send him back to where he came from?
20
This type of garbage from the greenies has been going on for 20 years, Hottest day since records began in 18983/1978/1969 etc. etc.
What? Thermometers not invented yet? No pencils or paper, nobody thought to write the results down.
Corrupt and mendacious to the bone.
61
This stuff is happening in the UK too. We keep getting weather forecasts for terrible weather, with the inferrence they are caused by climate change, then the actual event doesn’t happen. A new phrase has been coined for them, “weather bomb”. Another thing that began this winter was the Met Office giving names to the normal winter storms that we always get, as if they were somehow equivalent to American hurricanes. These storms are heavy rain accompsnied by high winds with gusts up to 80 mph, which normally affect Scotland and the North the most. They have been happening since the year dot, but now they have names. I believe it is all part of a plan to have a psychological influence on us, to influence us about man made global warming. I bellieve it leaves in the collective memory a series of weather bombs that didn’t actally happen.
81
The NASA GISS temperature reconstruct is “fake” news “fake” data and “fake” science. Long term temperature data doesn’t support the claim of warming.
Climate “Science” on Trial; Temperature Records Don’t Support NASA GISS
https://co2islife.wordpress.com/2017/03/12/climate-science-on-trial-temperature-records-dont-support-nasa-giss/
61
more reasons for Google’s AlGoreIthms to hide negative CAGW stories, as Silicon Valley continues its quest to rule the world!
12 Mar: UK Times: John Collingridge: Google owner plots to control Britain’s electricity network
Artificial intelligence technology owned by Google’s parent company could be unleashed on Britain’s power network, The Sunday Times can reveal.
DeepMind, a machine-learning operation bought by Google in 2014, has held talks with National Grid about embedding its software in the electricity network.
The negotiations, aimed at boosting efficiency and increasing the use of renewable energy, underline the reach of Silicon Valley’s biggest companies into every aspect of daily life.
DeepMind’s sophisticated algorithms — considered among the most advanced in the world — could significantly improve performance at National Grid and big power generators, the company believes.
It could use millions of pieces of data – from TV viewing trends to the weather – to accurately predict peaks and troughs in demand…SUBSCRIPTION REQD
12 Mar: CityAM UK: Lynsey Barber: Google’s DeepMind is in talks with National Grid to apply artificial intelligence to energy use
“There’s huge potential for predictive machine learning technology to help energy systems reduce their environmental impact,” said a spokesperson for the company…
“One really interesting possibility is whether we could help the National Grid maximise the use of renewables through using machine learning to predict peaks in demand and supply.”…
DeepMind’s AI technology, which became famous after beating a human player at the chess-like game Go, has already been put to work for Google, reducing the energy needed for cooling its data centres by 40 per cent last year and increasing efficiency by 15 per cent…
Now that has developed into early-stage talks taking place more recently between DeepMind … and the National Grid, although there is no guarantee of anything being agreed.
“We are in the very early stages of looking at the potential of working with DeepMind and exploring what opportunities they could offer for us,” said National Grid…
http://www.cityam.com/260742/googles-deepmind-talks-national-grid-apply-ai-energy-use
Wikipedia: DeepMind
DeepMind Technologies Limited is a British artificial intelligence company founded in September 2010. It was acquired by Google in 2014. The company has created a neural network that learns how to play video games in a fashion similar to that of humans…
Since then major venture capital firms Horizons Ventures and Founders Fund have invested in the company, as well as entrepreneurs Scott Banister and Elon Musk…
The sale to Google took place after Facebook reportedly ended negotiations with DeepMind Technologies in 2013…
After Google’s acquisition the company established an artificial intelligence ethics board. The ethics board for AI research remains a mystery, with both Google and DeepMind declining to reveal who sits on the board. DeepMind, together with Amazon, Google, Facebook, IBM, and Microsoft, is a member of Partnership on AI, an organization devoted to the society-AI interface…
31
Australia is currently under the influence of a two year Solar- induced orbital ‘Dry’ Cycle, (hence no cyclones.)The next one year Orbital ‘Wet’/Normal period has started circa longitude 110 degrees East of Prime (Beijing) – and will reach Australia in early January 2018. (East to West with the solar orbit of the Earth’s Magnetic Field.
These ‘Dry’ Cycles represent the exact ‘terrestrial footprint’ of the Solar-induced ‘X Factor’, as described and predicted by Alex S. Gaddes in his work ‘Tomorrow’s Weather’ (1990) – and verified by Dr David Evans in more recent works.
An updated version of ‘Tomorrow’s Weather’ (including ‘Dry’ Cycle forecasts to 2055,) is available as a free PDF from [email protected]
51
BoM seasonal forecast, which I believe is wrong because the subtropical ridge has collapsed. The pause in global temperature over the past two decades has brought below average rainfall to the south-east.
‘Higher than average pressure is forecast over the Great Australian Bight and southern and western Australia, meaning fewer rain-bearing systems are likely to cross the coast.
‘The past two decades have seen autumn rainfall declines across much of the south. For example, 22 of the past 26 years have brought below-average rainfall to southeast Australia.’
41
We used to call them “Indian Summers”. Actually it is ironic (in these modern “Global Warming” times)that the term was supposedly first used in 1774 by American settlers (according to the Online Etymology Dictionary).
60
What’s odd about all the talk by many who believe the weather is much hotter than ever before due to man-made CO2 emissions is it must therefore mean it was always much colder in the past. Well it wasn’t. I recall we had some really bad heatwaves decades ago, no different to those we are experiencing of late.
61
Those bad heatwaves from decades ago have now been erased from the archives. The future is certain, only the past needs to be managed.
21
PeterS , exactly we have become soft over the years , ask an aboriginal if they are happier out in the desert in 45+ temps or in a room with air conditioning and you will mostly get the latter .
So it’s universal man has become to accustomed to air cons and heaters and forgotten what temps we had as kids .
21
Thanks to competent science reporters like Jo Nova and a few others, and arrogance of the Swedish and Norwegian National Academies of Sciences for awarding Nobel and Crafoord Prizes for governments’ phoney science and phoney policies,
1. Eight decades of official deceit are ending, and
2. Humanity may experience an awakening to reality:
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/10640850/Nuclear_Energy_Error.pdf
40
I think you have all taken the wrong read on Mr Paddenburger’s article. His reference to ‘Sizzling Season’ was to let people know than the hot part of the year being officially over, it was a good time to roll out the BBQ.
20
13 Mar: RenewEconomy: Giles Parkinson: S.A. may pick two battery storage projects as it outlines new energy policy
Weatherill has had at least one long telephone conversation with Musk, which he described as very productive, but if the government was to support a Tesla initiative, it would upset several local players who have been making exactly the same claims as Tesla for many months.
That has raised the prospect that South Australia will commission not one, but two, major battery storage projects, and could even do this through a reverse auction process – although hopefully one quicker than the current tender for its own government supply contract.
Local supplier Zen Energy, chaired by Professor Ross Garnaut and partnered by Californian firm Greensmith, is seen as a favourite, and has previously outlined its own proposals for a “big battery” project in the state.
But also pitching are Lyon Soar, partnered with Mitsubishi and US firm AES, and with at least one and possibly three solar-storage projects in the pipeline, and Perth-based Carnegie, which said on Monday that it was in talks through its Energy Made Clean subsidiary. Others might also be in the wings.
The local tender and government support – it could be a combination of state and federal funding, including from the likes of the Clean Energy Finance Corporation – is needed because while battery storage is competitive with fossil fuels, it needs to be able to extract all its value streams…
So, here’s a nice idea for a South Australia energy policy update:
Number 1: Sign contracts with two battery storage developers, with government assistance, to show what they can do at scale, and then push mightily for the change of rules that have been stalled with the AEMC…ETC ETC
That way, South Australia, which already sources nearly 50 per cent of its demand from wind and solar, can continue to lead the world. And it won’t feel so much like an experiment.
http://reneweconomy.com.au/s-a-may-pick-two-battery-storage-projects-as-it-outlines-new-energy-policy-94353/
13 Mar: ABC: Battery companies say they are ahead of Tesla in race to secure SA energy supply
Lyon Group partner David Green told Business PM that his company was better placed than Tesla to quickly deliver a battery solution for South Australia’s energy problems.
“As I understand it, their hundred day pledge is a hundred days from when they sign the contract,” he said.
“Before you get to the stage of being able to sign a contract to deliver a project there’s about nine months worth of work that goes into identifying the land, going through the network connection process, extensive assessment of network flows and identifying the appropriate configuration of your project.
Mr Green said his company’s advantage over Tesla is that it already has one project announced in South Australia with three more to be announced “in the next couple of weeks”…
22
UN statement on fake news.
“The human right to impart information and ideas is not limited to ‘correct’ statements, the right also protects information and ideas that may shock, offend and disturb, prohibitions on disinformation may violate international human rights standards,” the statement said.
30
Is the U.N. going to support Aayan Hirsi Ali’s right to be heard in the search for dignity for women born outside Christianity?
Doubtful.
20
Origin of this statement please? Amazing.
This statement means the UN has declared Australia’s 18C in violation of international human rights and that Gillian Triggs should be disputing 18C in her role of head of the Australian Human Rights Commmission, not using wrong legislation to intimidate hundreds of people into paying $5000 each to prevent prosecution by her group of legal thugees, just for daring to hurt feelings by telling the truth.
70
Slightly OT but relevant is this story I found about lack of funds for scientific research outside of the climate area , now I know why they blame earthquakes on Co2 – it’s so scientists studying other more important fields can get funding .
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-13/report-identifies-earthquake-hotspots-in-regional-qld/8349172
31
Sorry, make that a green.
30
That’s ok KK I think I accidentally have given out a few myself , the biggest shame was giving Willard a green thumb by accident .
60
Gosh, yes. I offended that way very recently!
20
13 Mar: news.com.au: Charis Chang: Confusion over Elon Musk’s battery offer for South Australia
IF ELON Musk’s offer to fix South Australia’s power woes in 100 days sounds a bit too good to be true — unfortunately it may just turn out to be…
But Dr Roger Dargaville, of the Melbourne Energy Institute at the University of Melbourne, told news.com.au he believed the pledge would ultimately be too expensive to deliver.
He said Mr Cannon-Brookes could struggle to finance the project because it would probably make a loss in today’s market.
According to the institute’s calculations, the price for batteries needs to come down to less than $250 kilowatt hour before it can be profitable.
During his Twitter exchange, Mr Musk quoted a price of $US250kWh for a 100 megawatt hour system.
But this converts to $331kWh in Australian dollars, and the price doesn’t include installation costs.
Dr Dargaville said there was also confusion about whether Mr Musk meant to quote for a 100 “megawatt” system, or for a 100 “megawatt hour” system. It’s also unclear how many hours of storage the system would provide, either two hours or four hours…READ ON
http://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/confusion-over-elon-musks-battery-offer-for-south-australia/news-story/8f06c79ecc676cb82336ee8f77e91f8b
21
lengthy…a total scam:
12 Mar: UK Telegraph: Robert Mendick: Hundreds of millions of British aid ‘wasted’ on overseas climate change projects
Serious questions are raised today over hundreds of millions of pounds of British taxpayers’ money being ‘wasted’ on climate change projects such as an Ethiopian wind farm and Kenyan solar power plant.
A Telegraph investigation shows little benefit so far from a £2 billion foreign aid programme to tackle climate change that was established eight years ago.
One scheme, costing £260m of UK taxpayers’ money, has produced only enough renewable electricity to power the equivalent of just 100 British households – about the size of a typical street…
The complex set of schemes – known as the Climate Investment Funds (CIFs) – are run by the World Bank, with almost one-third of the £6.75 billion total funding provided by the UK government. No other country has put in so much cash…READ ALL
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/12/hundreds-millions-british-aid-wasted-overseas-climate-change/
11
13 Mar: Thomson Reuters Foundation: World Bank’s medicine for Thailand: more jobs, green protection
by Thin Lei Win
Thailand needs to rein in rapid depletion of its natural resources, create more and better jobs, and provide support to millions of the poorest if it is to achieve green growth that brings prosperity to all, the World Bank said on Monday…
Embarking on more environmentally conscious growth requires better land zoning and management, alongside the promotion of energy efficiency and clean energy, the World Bank report said.
But despite pledges to reduce its climate-changing emissions, the majority of which come from the energy sector, Thailand is looking to build 7,390 megawatts of coal-fired power plants over the next 20 years, the report noted.
http://news.trust.org/item/20170313102301-lj2if/?source=gep
21
a must-read. even with the ***Australia mention, will it get past the negative-CAGW censors in the Australian MSM?
13 Mar: UK Daily Mail: Judge’s son ‘lured celebrities in record £100m tax scam’: Old Etonian ‘told stars they could cut bills by investing in projects in Brazil and China’
The con is said to be the biggest tax fraud ever carried out in the U.K.
Anwyl was educated at Dulwich College and Eton before attending Oxford
A judge’s son has gone on trial accused of Britain’s biggest ever tax fraud in which celebrities were conned out of more than £100 million.
Jonathon Anwyl, 43, is said to have helped run an investment scheme targeting the rich and famous, including comedians, sports stars and relatives of politicians.
The Oxford and Eton-educated son of a retired Crown Court judge was part of a group which allegedly told the celebrities, who have not been named, that they could cut their tax bill by investing in environmental projects in Brazil and China…
***Anwyl is said to have used some of the proceeds to pay £788,000 off the mortgage of a house he owned in Australia with his French wife Anne…
Southwark Crown Court heard that despite his privileged background, Anwyl joined a gang led by businessman and environmental scientist Michael Richards, 55, which allegedly ran the fraud using a company called Carbon Positive Trading, where Anwyl was a director, and another called Carbon Capital. Panamanian law firm Mossack Fonseca was paid to set up the two firms, which were registered in the British Virgin Isles…
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4307208/Judge-s-son-lured-celebrities-record-100m-tax-scam.html
21
followup to carbon fraud trial UK Tele 13 March piece which has gone into moderation.
this is, apparently, the now 54-year-old named partner of the main subject of the Tele story I posted. ralk about the slow wheels of justice?
2011: UK Telegraph: Jonathan Russell: KPMG says public purse the main victim as fraud cases soar
Financial crime hit record levels in 2010, with the Government overtaking the financial services industry as the main victim, according to the KPMG Fraud Barometer.
One of the largest cases to appear in the KPMG Fraud Barometer involves alleged fraudster Michael Richards, 48. The businessman stands accused of masterminding one of the biggest direct tax frauds in UK history.
Although the case has yet to reach trial Mr Richards is accused of making fraudulent bids worth £103m in tax breaks on research into ***green technologies. Prosecutors say rich investors were lured into the scheme. Mr Richards is charged with six offences in total. The case is unlikely to reach court until 2012…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/8249147/KPMG-says-public-purse-the-main-victim-as-fraud-cases-soar.html
11
found a link to this documentary in the Times of Israel piece linked below.
lengthy interview, but read all.
btw the film is not made by CAGW sceptics, but by opponents of carbon trading, it would seem:
CARBON CROOKS -a film about carbon, credit and crooks
FAST AND UN-TRACEABLE, CARBON IS PERFECT
Marius-Cristian Frunza is a chief analyst in environmental markets with Schwarzthal Kapital and a lecturer at Sorbonne and Dauphine universities in France. He worked previously for 2.5 years in a carbon brokerage company in Paris. Recently, he published a highly recommendable book: “Fraud and Carbon Markets”.
By Tom Heinemann
Q “Why didn’t they stop them then?”
A “I think that one thing was that carbon was the big thing in the European Union. Something that the EU was very proud of to have the EU ETS – the European Carbon permits – and second you had a lot of financial institutions involved and it was generally financing crimes today probably more related than we think, but still it was seen in the modern world as a high level clean business sector.”
Q “How many have so far been arrested and convicted for doing this?”
A “I took various cases from Eastern Europe, Romania, Bulgaria and to the U.K. and with very small exposure – like a couple of thousands of € of VAT fraud – and up to millions and the number of people who were in some kind of a trial were around 200.”
Q “How many do you think they represent. Are there more behind this?”
A “I think the total head count involved in the VAT is around 1.000 – meaning people with significant business above half a million €.
http://carboncrooks.tv/fast-and-un-traceable-carbon-is-perfect/
found a youtube without the professional opening credits. better watch it soon in case it’s removed:
Youtube: 51mins29secs: Carbon Crooks
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EOx-Kj1_2GA
4 Mar: Times of Israel: Suspects allegedly impersonated top executives of firms in US, France, Poland and India, and tricked lower-level staff into transferring them huge sums of company money
By Simona Weinglass
As Israel-based financial fraud soars, police swoop on 20 suspects as part of global, FBI-led sting
In addition, French authorities told The Times of Israel in May 2016 that there is overlap between the French-Israeli owners of fraudulent binary options and forex companies and some of the perpetrators of carbon-VAT scams. Several former employees of French-owned binary options companies in Israel told The Times of Israel that they were frequently paid in cash and that rumors were rife that carbon-VATproceeds were being “laundered” through binary options companies as well as through purchases of Israeli real estate.
http://www.timesofisrael.com/as-israel-based-financial-fraud-soars-police-swoop-on-20-suspects-as-part-of-global-fbi-led-sting/
21
Great article thanks Jo Nova! What great work you’re doing. How necessary this is, to expose the lies and half-truths we are being fed! Thanks.
40
Jo this is so behind the time line that it probably won’t be read but perhaps, just perhaps it won’t get binned for obscenity. Any report in WA’s Sunday Times is suspect because it is in the Sunday Times which is a strong contender for the world’s worst newspaper. Bennet and Steffen are monumental bull shit artists who seize every opportunity touring hot weather to the fore but eschew every opportunity to mention cold weather. For any readers of this thread that don’t live in WA it’s been colder and wetter than for several years. Does that crack a mention from these masters of omission? Not bloody likely . I really despair of ever getting a balanced view of climate in the MSM as everything is distorted to buggery with “fake news” on the one hand and real sins of omission on the other. It makes me so angry because I am a real scientist and these bustards have no conscience about destroying every tenet that scientists hold dear.
21
It’s no different here. The NZ Herald and the major Radio/TV stations make a big deal out of every tenth of a degree C for “elevated” temperatures but barely report anything cold. The South Island had TWO snowfalls in early January. The first was a light dusting, the second nearly a metre. I cannot remember that happening in my lifetime. It was mentioned: a paragraph in the Herald and a mention on TV. The reporting was so low-key, anyone could think that this was nothing out of the ordinary. It happens every year. So what?
Snow down to 300-400m?
In January?
The middle of summer?
Even the Northern Hemisphere snow in the Sahara escaped notice. I was expecting that to be a big thing. If it was mentioned anywhere, I missed it.
11
Let me repeat a post on Catallaxy Files Forum 8th March 2017
Geriatric Mayfly
#2319391, posted on March 8, 2017 at 3:23 pm
The angry summer in retrospect over at Blair’s. That Stefan idiot on his megaphone again blaring out every meteorological idiosyncrasy as evidence of impending doom. The only solution: all windmills and mirrors, no mention of nuclear. I turned the AC on twice during this angry summer and then only for an hour each time to dissipate the Dreadful Heat which had sneaked into the house.
From Tim Blair Blog
Today’s noticeboard is brought to you by Australia’s “angry summer”.
AAP reports:
More than 200 weather records were broken during the intense, “angry summer” just finished, putting stress on Australians and the ageing energy system.
A report from the Climate Council, released on Wednesday, says the summer was characterised by intense heatwaves, hot days and bushfires in central and eastern Australia but heavy rainfall and flooding in the country’s west.
Climate scientist Will Steffen said the effects of climate change could be seen in the 200 records broken in 90 days.
“We’re experiencing unprecedented extreme heat and setting new records at an alarming rate, with every part of Australia feeling the impact,” he said.
OK, I arrived in Melbourne to live February 1968
From BOM Melbourne – 30 January 1968 to 1 March 1968
19680130 37.1
19680131 44.2
19680201 24.9
19680202 21.9
19680203 21.8
19680204 30.4
19680205 38.3
19680206 23.2
19680207 24.6
19680208 19.8
19680209 22.2
19680210 24.3
19680211 23.8
19680212 23.7
19680213 32.5
19680214 26.9
19680215 37.7
19680216 38.8
19680217 39.5
19680218 38.7
19680219 36.6
19680220 32.6
19680221 32.1
19680222 24.3
19680223 36.6
19680224 42.0
19680225 41.5
19680226 22.6
19680227 20.8
19680228 23.2
19680229 31.0
19680301 35.7
Days over 30C – 17
Days Over 35C – 12
Days over 40C – 3
For the same dates 2017 from BOM
Days over 30C – 10
Days over 35C – 3
Days over 40C – 0
Can Climate Council, Idiot Climate Scientist Will Stefan, and AAP explain to me what was “ says the summer was characterised by intense heatwaves, hot days and bushfires in central and eastern Australia”
When you compare Melbourne 30 January 1968 to 1 March 1968 to 30 January 2017 to 1 March 2017, it was a Hell of a Lot Hotter in 1968 than 2017.
Climate Council Report is a bunch of Garbage as is Idiot Climate Scientist Will Stefan
31
Dr Watkins..go learn some “basic physics” on how CO2 DOESNT have ANYTHING to do with the earths climate. And what “basic physics” would that be? simple thermodynamics?
00
This Perth summer was both cool and wet. This years cyclones seemed more like monsoons so maybe failed cyclones should be renamed monsoonal flows.
00