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BOM September failure — but who can predict the climate a whole month ahead?

The World’s Best Practice climate models predicted Australia would be hotter than normal in September, instead the maximum temperature anomaly was 1 to 5 degrees below average across most of Australia.

That long range prediction was made all the way back on August 21. Four weeks later it was obvious it was wrong.

BOM, Bureau of MEteorology, Australia, temperature, September 2016, prediction, failure.

Prediction of a hot September versus actual outcome. (Click to enlarge).

Thanks to Warwick Hughes who saw this failure coming and The Marcus Review who points out the mismatch and goes on to log how much the BOM predictions for October have transformed from hotter than average to cold cold cold.

The BOM bravely predicted Tasmania would have an 80% chance of having hotter than average maximums. Temperatures ended up being spot on average. What’s 80% certainty worth? About the same as 95%.

Thanks to Chris Gillham who pointed out the big cold blob of ocean surrounding Australia on the south and west that gave Perth its coldest ever September nights. Wasn’t that cold blob present on August 21 when those models were run? On August 25th, the BOM predicted Perth’s chances of being cooler than average at 50:50. Toss a coin, or use a climate model? The prevailing winds for Tassie come straight of the cold sea.

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BOM September failure -- but who can predict the climate a whole month ahead?, 9.8 out of 10 based on 119 ratings

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165 comments to BOM September failure — but who can predict the climate a whole month ahead?

  • #

    OK, so short-term predictions don’t work, but at least they can get 100 year forward predictions to within a few degrees.

    601

    • #
      Yonniestone

      50% for a couple of weeks 100% for 100 years, hedging of bets much?

      251

    • #
      Hivemind

      “to within a few degrees”: apparently they can predict future temperatures hundreds of years in the future – to two decimal points of accuracy.

      172

    • #
      • #
        toorightmate

        I am fairly certain that at about this time last year we had the same message from BOM via ABC and Fairfax in relation to an abnormally large number of impending cyclones.
        The actual result for last summer was a very low number of cyclones and the wet season “up North” was as dry as chips.

        193

        • #
          sophocles

          The actual result for last summer was a very low number of cyclones and the wet season “up North” was as dry as chips.

          This summer is in the cooling zone of the El Nino. We should be in a La Nina in another month by the looks of the temps so far. That tends to make more cyclones. The cooler temperatures make for more condensation -> more rain -> more latent heat extracted to power the storms. That’s in the FOR column.

          The AGAINST column says the sun is quietening down so not so bumpy solar wind, no or few Solar Flares and CMEs suggests any storms will be more likely to not be more than Cat 3.

          It will be interesting to see.

          20

      • #
        Albert

        The NT government predicted a bad cyclone season due to high ocean temps. When will they learn, in the past some high ocean temps have produced NO cyclones
        Weather is not controlled by the simplistic view of 1 factor alone, any factor is just 1 of many and also the unknown factors
        We are still learning about weather and certainly co2 for me remains too small to consider

        182

    • #
      Leonard Lane

      Another example of BOM climate seance. They would probably have better predictions by casting chicken bones or some other better method than they used to prepare the “hottest evah” predictions.

      143

      • #
        tom0mason

        Makes me wonder how anyone ever did weather forecasting before computers.
        Certainly they were inaccurate back then but of course then the forecasters had to take the mistakes on the nose. Only later did the excuse of blaming the computer or its program arrive.

        133

        • #
          Russell

          Interestingly,the weather forecasters in England during WW2 produced some extremely accurate and reliable forecasts for weather in Europe – the lives of RAF crews depended on their accuracy.

          131

      • #
        Rereke Whakaaro

        They would probably have better predictions by casting chicken bones …

        How do we know they don’t?

        I have always assumed that they were using frozen chicken bones, to predict warming temperatures; and fried chicken bones, to predict cooling.

        That assumption seems to make as much sense as anything else, that Government Meterological Organisations come out with.

        Perhaps their supercomputer is sentinent?

        133

      • #
        Albert

        Climate seance ! love it ! I wonder if they use a ouija board to prove co2 is the only driver of climate ?

        132

      • #
        Allen Ford

        The BOM should never have junked their supply of Ouija boards, pendulums or crystal balls.

        Big mistake!

        40

        • #
          Another Ian

          Allen

          On a visit to a major met centre early 1960′s we were shown the instrument that recorded hours of sunshine by burning a trace on a paper.

          With the met man’s comment “That is also known as the crystal ball we use to predict weather”

          40

  • #
    pat

    this thread fits with the piece i was about to post on “unthreaded”. don’t think anyone has posted it before:

    8 Oct: UK Telegraph: Sarah Knapton: Experts said Arctic sea ice would melt entirely by September 2016 – they were wrong
    Dire predictions that the Arctic would be devoid of sea ice by September this year have proven to be unfounded after latest satellite images showed there is far more now than in 2012.
    Prof Wadhams, a leading expert on Arctic sea ice loss, has recently published a book entitled A Farewell To Ice in which he repeats the assertion that the polar region would free of ice in the middle of this decade.
    As late as this summer, he was still predicting an ice-free September…
    It is the latest example of experts making alarming predictions which do not come to pass. Earlier this week environmentalists were accused of misleading the public about the “Great Pacific Garbage Patch” after aerial shots proved there was no “island of rubbish” in the middle of the ocean. Likewise, warnings that the hole in the ozone layer would never close were debunked in June…READ ON
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2016/10/07/experts-said-arctic-sea-ice-would-melt-entirely-by-september-201/

    the piece still quotes plenty of “experts”, predicting it will happen in 2050. time will tell.

    303

    • #
      AndyG55

      Having fun with this.

      even invented a new unit of measurement for Arctic sea ice, that has been picked up on a couple of sites already

      1 Wadham = 1 million km²

      NSIDC has current Arctic sea ice area at 5.4 Wadhams.

      424

      • #
        John F. Hultquist

        I have suggested elsewhere that the Professor retire, never to be heard from again.
        The unit “Wadhams” can be a well deserved legacy.

        232

        • #
          OriginalSteve

          A new unit of measure : BOM

          Usage : encryption.

          Meaning : takes useful data and renders it unreadable to all a select few.

          Alternate usage : meterological ‘witchcraft’ & prediction, on par with reading sheep intestines.

          203

          • #
            Another Ian

            At least you can get an idea of intestinal parasite populations from sheep intestines but I doubt this crew knows that

            83

          • #
            turnedoutnice

            In reality, the monicker BOM applied to Ozzie meteorologists is taken from the noise their head makes when hit by the bullbars on a Landcruiser.

            53

          • #
            Rereke Whakaaro

            Any idiot can encrypt useful data, to render it incomprensable, and they often do.

            The real clever trick, is being able to unencrypt the encrypted data, in order to make it meaningful.

            Just because you have a whole bunch of numbers (of various measurement tolerances), doesn’t mean that they imply anything useful.

            133

      • #
        Yonniestone

        Was going to use the Flannel unit of measure and fond out,

        Vegetable Flannel,uses fibres from the Scots pine rather than wool, coincidence or what?

        62

        • #
          john karajas

          A few years ago in Sydney a “Flannery” was an inch (25mm) of rain, like as in “all those Flannery’s were not meant to fall on us”.

          192

          • #
            Bobl

            Don’t forget the Kev coined by Michael Smith meaning 1 Billion Australian Dollars, as in Kev 07 and “There will be no carbon tax” Gillard wasted 11 Kev per annum on climate nonsense.

            172

          • #
            Speedy

            Yeah, but in the old days a Flannery produced oxygen, not steal it!

            Cheers,

            Speedy

            72

      • #
        toorightmate

        Wadhams up Doc?

        42

      • #
        AndyG55

        wow 40 thumbs ! Sweet :-)

        guys that hit their thumb with a hammer…

        anything to contribute ?? :-)

        10

  • #
    mal

    Reports in the telegraph on the weekend showed that tis Is the first time since records have been kept that there was no temperature over 30C for all of September in NSW.
    Forecasts are so wrong, wrong, wrong.

    363

    • #
      King Geo

      How about here in Perth? Coldest Sept on record. But there is no mention by BOM or the MSM that Perth has had below average maximum temps since April and that this “cooling trend” has extended into October which should see the trend extend to 7 months. Maybe real “Spring” will arrive in November. As for the coldest Perth Sept on record – our highest max temp for that month was just 23.5 degrees and even more compelling is that only 3 of the 30 days exceeded the Sept max temp average of 20.4 degrees.

      121

  • #
    el gordo

    ‘Wasn’t that cold blob present on August 21 when those models were run?’

    BoM is blind to imminent global cooling, if they could feed their super computers with this new mindset everything would become abundantly clear.

    Timbal (BoM) has been pushing the idea that the strengthening of the subtropical ridge would become permanent under AGW, this isn’t happening and he should admit its all over.

    273

    • #
      DaveR

      Spot on el gordo. There is a more than a reasonable basis to suspect that BOM (along with Met Office and NIWA) have all built AGW warming into their forecasting software.

      Notice how the forecasts often seem to predict warmer than actual, only rarely colder? It has become a big problem in the UK as well, where predicting overnight minima is beset with problems, the actual temperatures often much colder than forecast.

      If they could remove the AGW algorithms from their forecasting software then maybe the actual data would start to moderate forecasts.

      143

      • #
        Annie

        We were watching this all last summer. There was the forecast temp pattern with the actual one superimposed; the top temp was always below the forecast one.

        51

      • #
        PeterPetrum

        Here in the Blue Mountains the temperature seldom reaches the forecast. The peculiar thing is, if one watches the data put out by the BOM, the temperature during the afternoon up to 3pm is well below the forecast, then all of a sudden there is a short term “spike” between 3pm and 4pm that bring it up briefly close to forecast. At that time of day it is very suspect. Not sure how they achieve that.

        30

  • #
    David Maddison

    So what is the BoM being paid for?

    And how does their lack of performance compare with other comparable agencies?

    Think of all the supercomputer time they waste running their useless models.

    That supercomputer time should be devoted to scientific purposes instead.

    143

    • #

      So what is the BoM being paid for?

      To make weather apps, as if no one has ever made any before (government, better):

      http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/bureau-of-meteorology-launches-weather-app-to-keep-up-with-smartphone-obsessed-australians/525191

      62

    • #
      Ozwitch

      The BOM is paid for advancing the agenda and the research grants of green agencies so everyone stays nicely employed and on the green gravy train.

      213

    • #
      Dave

      It’s NOT the fault of BOM

      1. They were HACKED in 2015

      2. The 1.6 PETAFLOP Super Duper Computer is also to blame. Too many Petaflops result in Thermomixing at 4 degrees C above normal homogenisation.

      3. Dr David Jones is Manager of Climate Monitoring and Prediction at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology was also hacked by unknown Bob Brown alien called a NEWNORMAL.

      4. They haven’t got any scientists working for them yet, just data fiddlers.

      213

      • #
        toorightmate

        BOM should combine with ABS.
        Then someone could have a good crack at killing two birds with the one stone.

        83

      • #
        tom0mason

        Weather forecasting is as much an art as science.
        A FLOP is a failure especially in artistic productions.
        PENTA indicates the use of the multiplier of a thousand trillion.

        Therefore this computer has a performance rating of a thousand trillion flops, or failures, before it gets a correct forecast. Thankfully it does the flops very fast, almost too fast to see.

        83

        • #
          tom0mason

          Oops off by a few billion…

          A PETA is the ability of a computer to do one quadrillion.

          And scientifically a quadrillion is so many more than just a thousand trillion. In fact it’s lots more, so large in fact it can almost calculate the number of mistruths from the Obama/H. Clinton partnership.

          112

    • #
      Another Ian

      David

      A professional two bob bit spinner would be a lot cheaper

      72

      • #
        Rereke Whakaaro

        True. But it wouldn’t have the flashing lights, and the bell that goes, “Ting”, for no apparent reason.

        52

        • #
          Graeme No.3

          I thought it was a machine that went ping? (And that dates me for those who remember).

          71

          • #
            Rereke Whakaaro

            I was under the impression that the BOM had made major enhancements to their systems – more mice, nonslip running wheel treads, a bigger button, with a lable that says “Do not press me”, written in Swahili, and an upgrade from a “ping” (with no upper case) to the new improved “Ting”, which definitely does have an upper case letter.

            You have to give it to the Sales Reps who deal with the BOM. They certainly know how to look after a client (hic!).

            62

  • #
    pat

    links to Paul Homewood and Christopher Booker in the UK Telegraph:

    9 Oct: ClimateDepot: Marc Morano: The Guardian’s ‘100 months to save the planet’ was always just a fantasy
    http://www.climatedepot.com/2016/10/09/the-guardians-100-months-to-save-the-planet-was-always-just-a-fantasy/

    Homewood’s original piece:

    2 Oct: Paul Homewood: The Guardian’s “100 Months To Save The World”
    Eight years ago, the Guardian launched its “100 months to save the world” campaign, a series of monthly posts by Andrew Simms.
    The basic message of that first article was that we were all doomed unless we transformed our economy to look something like Cuba’s…
    https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2016/10/02/the-guardians-100-months-to-save-the-world/

    152

  • #
    RoHa

    OK, I’ll take that challenge. Here’s my prediction for November in Australia.

    During the month it will get warmer, though with one or two cooler spells in places. There will be some rain somewhere in the country, and a bit of wind, too. Expect a few clouds to appear in some parts of the country.

    Do I get a prize if I am right?

    283

  • #

    I was hoping that this year global warming would come early, but no, our wood fire is still burning strong because it’s so bleeding cold!

    263

    • #
      sophocles

      bemused said:

      our wood fire is still burning strong vbecause it’s so bleeding cold!

      your wood fire seems to know it’s not “global warming” but Northern Hemisphere only warming.

      From Notrickszone comes this article referencing a paper from De Freitas,Dedekind and Brill (2015). In brief, it claims NZ’s average annual temperature is 12.6 dC and has been for the past 150 years. Warming? Where? Ah, North of the equator! Not down here.

      Keep that wood burner happy, it knows what it’s doing :-)

      133

      • #
        Mark M

        It could have been those carbon (sic) credits. Oh wait … they were fr_ud:

        24 April, 2016, radionz.co.nz: Dubious carbon credits a thing of the past-Paula Bennett (actual headline!)

        “Climate Change Minister Paula Bennett says dubious carbon credits have been bought in the past, but that’s not happening now.

        A report released last week accused the government of allowing the purchase of fake carbon credits from countries that were not actually cutting emissions.

        Speaking today on TVNZ’s Q and A programme Ms Bennett said with the Paris agreement on climate change signed this weekend, nothing more needed to be done about those carbon credits.”

        63

    • #
      Annie

      Same here bemused.
      We had a few brief periods of sun but quite a lot of rain, heavy at times and with some violent gusts of wind. It was very cold during the squalls and I can well believe a forecast I heard of snow down to 800m. As the stove was on I cooked a Christmas cake in it; delicious smell of spicy fruit cake around the house.

      71

      • #

        This morning it feels like it is going to snow; tops today of 11C. Darwin, Brisbane etc will be three times hotter; there must not be any life up north anymore, given that just a 2C temperature rise will kill the planet.

        52

  • #
    Robert Rosicka

    BOM sent me a response today about why they changed the flood levels of the Fifteen mile creek , nothing fishy here ?
    Hi Robert,

    Thanks for you query on our services.

    Flood class levels are based on the effects of water levels, and you can find the definition of minor, moderate and major flooding, at: http://www.bom.gov.au/water/floods/floodWarningServices.shtml

    Flood class levels across Victoria were recently reviewed in consultation with response agencies and as part of this process the flood class levels at Greta South were changes to better reflect local flood affects.

    I’ve included the information to the original ticket for your reference:-

    143

  • #
    Ian Hill

    Well they got something right – Tasmania turned out to be the same as the top end of Australia! If I were responsible for producing the predictive map I’d be wanting to know why Tasmania does not look more like the south-east of Australia. Seems there is some faulty data being used there.

    73

    • #
      Yonniestone

      Trust the BOM to misplace a map of Tassie, this has hairs on it.

      113

    • #
      Peter C

      I took a further look at the prediction map and the outcome.
      It seems to me quite surprising that the BOM made such a prediction, which throws serious doubt on the predictive models that they use.
      It seems to me that the large cool area centred on western Queensland corresponds with recent above normal rainfall. Surely every one knows that when the soil is moist the ground does not become very hot! It just takes so much energy to heat water. And the prediction was about the maximum temperatures.

      173

      • #
        Another Ian

        Peter C

        There is more to it than that.

        Our creek valley can be severe in winter – down to around – 10C if it really tries. This winter we’ve only had a few frosts. But no really warm days. The winter growing weeds like Scotch thistle and Mexican poppy have only hit their straps post August. The summer growing grasses haven’t really yet, as with natives like mulga nettle.

        So I’m waiting for August – September to be proclaimed “hottest ever”.

        Even my home brew doesn’t support that. Usually, sitting on a concrete floor it is starting to bubble in about 2 – 3 days. The August batch took about a week for the same brew.

        92

        • #
          toorightmate

          I would not be too worried about the weeds and seeds Ian, but I would be shaking in my boots if there is any evidence that global warming could affect home brewing!

          52

        • #
          PeterPetrum

          My little apple orchard up here in the Blue Mountains is usually in full leaf and blossom by the end of September. It is already well into October and a few leaves have appeared with some very shy blossom tucked away inside. And no bees yet!

          40

          • #
            Another Ian

            Bad news for BOM then.

            Looks like the birds and the bees and the plants might have a predictive lead over the BOM computer.

            31

          • #
            Dave

            Peter

            Same in Queensland!

            This day in New Farm Park!

            Jacarandas just starting to flower!
            Normally all nearly in full bloom by 11th October every year!
            The ground is a carpet of petals!

            NOT THIS YEAR!

            Summer starting later – MSM don’t report unless ONE WEEK early?

            It’s getting cooler every year as far as Jacarandas are concerned in Queensland!
            They indicate the start of SUMMER here!

            31

  • #
    David S

    I’m surprised that you have jumped to the conclusion that the BOM was wrong ! They are still yet to make adjustments to the data to make sure that they were right. I would expect those adjustments in the next few weeks and wouldn’t be surprised if this was one of the hottest Septembers evah!

    273

  • #

    This can only mean one thing: Promotions for those responsible at the BOM; to reward those leading CAGW chorus boys in this kakistocratic and seemingly useless agency absorbing tax dollars which year-on-year we don’t have.

    In a world which wasn’t upside down, where CAGW religion wasn’t infecting otherwise rational thinking people, things like predicting short term weather phenomenon might be considered a critical part of crisis mitigation – assisting for instance SES with accurate weather predictions – so it’s nice to know we are paying even more money to the BOM because of the CAGW ‘crisis’, in order to deliver an EPIC FAIL on the one thing your agency was ACTUALLY created to provide: Rational analysis.

    Kakistocracy:
    Government under the control of a nation’s worst or least-qualified citizens.

    Well done BOM boys … living up to the bar set by every useless bureaucrat who ever lived long enough to appoint a family member for entry into a deep-state fiefdom. Thanks for assisting the growth of the kakistocratic cancer that is killing another once decent western refuge from life in an uncivilized jungle.

    93

    • #
      • #

        Exactly … this seems to be the general convention in the United States and in N.Z., Canada, and the U.K.

        I reccon the FiveEyes should all just be merged into one big entity of stupid known as Kakistan!

        Admitting a problem or disorder is the first stage to recognizing the need for reform, and I don’t see much recognition of this sorry state of affairs, and I’m not holding my breath for the ABC or SBS to start covering the failings of Kakistocracy, because the Turkey never votes for Christmas dinner.

        20

    • #
      Rereke Whakaaro

      I lived for three years in Singapore, and used to listen to Australian Radio.

      I especially liked the weather forecast for Darwin: “Hot and dusty”. It never varied. It was always hot and dusty. Apparently, it only rained once a year, but even then it was “hot and dusty”.

      What a great job to have, I thought. So I made some tentative inquiries. But apparently my level of math was not up to the job. It requires advanced statistics to know that, if the last one hundred days, the weather has always been “hot and dusty”, then tomorrow might, just possibly, be “hot and dusty”, also.

      Ah, but there us the rub. The key thing, is knowing when to say that tommorrow might not be “hot and dusty”, and getting that right.

      Of course, they now use a super-computer to tell them that tommorrow will be, “hot and dusty”, except on those rare days when it won’t. The accuracy hasn’t changed much. But at least the BOM have made savings on the salary budget.

      72

      • #

        >>> But at least the BOM have made savings on the salary budget.

        I thought they just moved that freed up budget saving into the new ‘climate change’ directorates (plural), full of people on government contracts salaried to ‘find’ man made problems with the climate and to feed this to the Academic Industrial Complex who also gain grants and endowments based on their ability to find the same problems?

        Pray do tell, where is this government agency you speak of that actually made savings on a salary budget? :P Miracles do happen from time to time, so we should reward the few positive anomalies which above all laws of political nature actually succeed in floating to the top of the kakistocratic sludge.

        31

      • #
        Annie

        It sounds like Dubai! For months on end the forecast is ‘Hot and Sunny’ or ‘Sunny and Hot’ as an alternative! Temps somewhere in the 40C+ or ++ or even +++.

        10

  • #
    Manfred

    The weather haruspex appear as accurate today as their entrail gazing ancestors. The climate mongers are essentially lost in politicized space. Dispense with the lot of them. The science is settled, why bother with the extravagant cost of a State adjustment / prediction bureau? Use the money to subsidise those who are power impoverished. Meanwhile, the UN have brokered a new global green tax on air travel. It gives us a whiff of what it’s going to look like under a totalitarian bureaucratic administration. 2030 is the broader implementation date, and the airline taxes is just one of those incremental nails in the coffin of national identity, independence and freedom. This creep has to be arrested before it all ends in tears.

    173

  • #
    sophocles

    Over the second half of last year and the first half of this year, there was a strong El Nino. It’s been in it’s cooling phase for at least the last three months.

    I find it amazing the BOM seems to have treated its warming as a permanent or long term trend rather than a very temporary one, as the prediction made had the flavour of “business as usual.” Or did it cool sooner and faster than expected?

    In 1997 – 1998, there was a strong El Nino. That one and this one seem to have been very close to identical in terms of peak temperature and high rates of temperature change, with the 2015-2016 El Nino appearing to cool a bit sooner than its predecessor and somewhat more quickly.

    Would it be both interesting and useful to compare the weather experienced in the wake of the ’97-98 El Nino with that we are seeing now? It could make prediction both easier and more likely to be in the ball park.
    Unfortunately I had my head down in other more compelling affairs at that time to be able to remember much of the weather.

    The sort of weather we are seeing now is consonant with fairly rapid cooling. What was it like 18 years ago?

    Here in NZ, spring is both wet and windy post equinox, especially for about the first three weeks or so of October. So far, it’s more or less “situation normal” here, and perhaps a bit wetter than I remember most other recent years being. 2003 was a particularly windy spring but not quite as wet as this one, as I remember it. That’s about all I can remember of it.

    Why do I remember 2003? Because it flattened about 8m of a 1.8m high wooden boundary fence. (Ok, it was an elderly fence and due for replacement about then anyway … and this year my fences are in better condition … :-)

    133

  • #
    crakar24

    OT……as some of you may know I have the heat pleasure of working in Woomera from time to time. Generally there is not a week that goes by where I or some of my colleagues are not driving north of Adelaide to woomera.

    For those of you that don’t know, on the drive north you pass the Snowtown, bluff and hallets wind farms ( basically the 6 that failed bringing the third world to SA.

    It just so happens some of us where driving north that morning and it was noted by some just how many turbines were not working (feathered). In fact there were a number, when considering the wind which was quite low at the time the number was higher than usual.

    Perhaps these wind farms had problems much earlier in the day?

    252

  • #
    • #
      bobl

      They said that last year and I don’t recall even one landfall. In fact don’t they say that every year, if they do that then on average they will be right 50% of the time. Even a broken clock is correct twice a day.

      113

  • #
    Graeme

    The blob off the lower SW corner has been there since mid-July – I’ve been watching it on the ospo.noaa.gov website. The anomalies have become more pronounced during September. The size of the SW blob seems to have reduced slightly this week.

    32

  • #
    Ruairi

    The facts would never deter,
    What warmists will forecast to scare,
    That in just a few years,
    Arctic ice disappears,
    In summer,from man-made hot air.

    191

    • #
      Christopher

      I’m warmish-agnostic. Am I welcome here?

      My mind is open for anything. Seems like most people are set in their own belief system unfortunately..

      [You are welcome here no matter what you think as long as you follow Jo's rules for commenting. http://joannenova.com.au/rules-legal/ ] AZ

      101

      • #
        el gordo

        Do you think the hiatus has had any impact on warmist thinking?

        41

      • #

        Hi Christopher. I for one can say that it’s not a matter of being set in my beliefs, more a case of examining the evidence (over and above computer models and supposition). So, not belief but knowledge and experience and further learning. I also dismiss and disregard those individuals and bodies caught cheating, lying and manipulating (emotions or data). I will never trust those particular agencies again.

        Most here, I would say, have much the same experiences and feel pretty much the same way, but you will find a wide band of people here so the community here is made up of all-sorts.

        Of course some of the warmists who also visit here and who have not delved so deeply nor have yet been disillusioned, may now come along and kick heck out of this comment for what I said in the first paragraph (if nothing else, watch the red thumbs climb), but that’s okay because everyone is entitled to their opinion and I don’t mind people disagreeing with me.

        So yes, you should be fine here and find some good debate going if you are interested.

        So… Welcome and cheers to you! :)

        123

        • #

          Here, here, A.D.E.

          Once the agenda and bias based on $$$’s is identified, it’s hard to remain a CAGW agnostic, even if this is perhaps a reactionary logic. The fact that the main sponsor of IETA Carbon Trading advocacy is Royal Dutch Shell, *should* nix the argument that skeptics are the ones who are funded by ‘big oil’.

          I have never had a problem talking to people who aren’t sure if significant man-made warming is occurring or not, but I can definitely recognize a problem with the other side of the ‘debate’ when it comes to listening to the opinions of others.

          The side of the debate which not only has a bias, but a quite visible hostility to the act of debate itself, is clearly where any possible ulterior motives are to be found. If the ‘science’ was that strong in their favor, they wouldn’t care about the act of debate.

          DISCLAIMER: No, I am not funded by Big Oil to troll against the single issue which will actually make the investment arms of Big Oil companies more money than their physical commodity sales will make :P

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        Rereke Whakaaro

        Being agnostic is good. It is the belief system of the open mind. Of course you are welcome here.

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        Radical Rodent

        Oh. You have rules?!

        Who knew?

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    • #
      Speedy

      It seems that the “elitist” class
      Can decree all things that will pass
      But if their future tense
      Fails to match evidence –
      It shows they speak from their ….

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    Christopher

    I guess that’s why they call them weather models. Until we invent time machines its the best we’ve got.

    Less conspiracy and more running up against the limits of the technology we have – it’s damn hard to do med-long term forecasts, let alone 100 years out.

    That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t keep refining and tweaking – but you can bet on one thing, they’ll never be perfect.

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      Vlad the Impaler

      Hi Christopher,

      As a long-time commentator here, I’d agree that you’ll find some “closed minds” (as it were), but the question you might want to ask is, ‘why are they closed?’ I consider myself to be closed-minded on the subject of AGW or ACC, because the whole premise of the hypothesis is completely flawed.

      Agree with you: it doesn’t mean we shouldn’t keep refining and tweaking. Extremely true; climate models, weather forecast models should continue to be improved (e.g., allowing more prep time for a major typhoon or hurricane). But if those same climate models are premised on a false assumption (i.e., that CO2 is a primary driver of global climate), then they are less than worthless, are they not?

      I look at the geological record, and for the past 750 million years, there is no relationship between ‘average global climate’ and the corresponding CO2 concentration. The idea/framework that CO2 drives global climate is reached by those who study only the past two centuries or so, ignoring the rest of the record.

      I think what you’ll find here is a general consensus that we’ve looked at the hypothesis, and found it seriously wanting. Be advised that Jo herself was once a ‘believer’, then began to examine the science behind ‘human-caused climate change’, and became, on her own, a “skeptic” (sceptic for our Queen’s English brethren). I became a “dis-believer” back in the early 1970′s, when were told that we would all freeze in the coming Ice Age; the geological data told me that the ‘global cooling’ was just a natural variation. I was a mere undergrad at the time. I’m humored when I told, by those a half-century my junior, that I’m on the wrong side of history.

      I lived some of that history — they didn’t.

      Welcome to Jo’s Graduate Studies in Climatology and PaleoClimatology; there are no graduates, no exams; the learning never stops (unless you do).

      Regards,

      Vlad the Impaler

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      el gordo

      ‘…it’s damn hard to do med-long term forecasts …’

      Only because BoM doesn’t reckon the sun is of any significance.

      The next couple of decades will be cool and wet because our star is in a slumber, meaning the earth is bombarded with more cosmic rays which creates more low cloud.

      Its straight forward, but BoM can’t see it because they are blind in one eye.

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    • #
      AndyG55

      Then WHY are we wasting so much on wind turbines solar panels etc that are basically useless most of the time.

      That is the real issue.. the fact that all this AGW is unproven, yet seems to rule the political agenda.

      Why are the “predictions” given so much weight, when they have consistently proven to be WRONG.

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    • #
      OriginalSteve

      Generally, the louder the warmists shriek when questioned, the deeper thier blind obedience to the warmist religion.

      I had a near stand-up one day when a hard-core warmist wouldnt even debate the concept he might be wrong, so much for an open mind.

      I wouldnt back off either, which infuriates them no end – they are bullies generally, and expect you to roll over because the bare their teeth. I also like poking the bull too, namely because they cant back up thier strident red-faced-with-bulging-neck-veins insistence that they are “right”, when the cold hard facts say otherwise….its also never OK to always refer to authority, unless said authority can be proven right to anyone who enquires. Generally they cant…

      My experience has been the behaviour of the warmsist is very cult-like – never allowed to question, lines of enquiry are tightly controlled, and group think is the preferred method of examinging anything….

      If it cant stand up to scrutiny in a fair and open debate, it doesnt stand, period….

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    • #
      Egor TheOne

      Ponder this equation of everything climate: CAGW = BS

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    • #
      Rereke Whakaaro

      Forecasting is extremely difficult, especially in regards to the future.

      A question for any wannabee modellers: How many natural variables are there, that could impact the area of study? If you don’t know, give up, and find a more productive area to use your skills.

      If you do know how many variables you have to deal with, then you are being overconfident, and you will end up looking like a smuck.

      But if you don’t care about that, then ascertain all of the ways that all of the variables that you know about, could interact, in combination with each other, and the effect of each interaction.

      Factor the results of those possible interactions back into the model, to observe what happens next.

      If the result you get is “42″, then you have proven that computers do in fact have a sense of humour. Any other result will be wrong.

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    Mat L

    I don’t get this. Everywhere predicted with higher confidence (above 75% chance) ended up being 0-3º above average, i.e. the northern Australia regions and even Tassie (which you say was average?). There was a region in central Australia that ended up being below average, but that area had a lower confidence prediction (50-75%). What am I seeing differently?

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    • #
      Ian Hill

      Looking at the broader picture, about 85% of the country was predicted to have a higher than 50% chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature for September (white/grey/all shades of red). As it turned out about 75% of the country had below average maximum, with about two thirds being greater than 1C below (green/blue/purple).

      The fine print: the reference period for the prediction is 1981-2010 whereas for the actual is 1961-90, so the prediction is based on warmer data, which makes the outcome even more embarrassing for the BOM.

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    pat

    ***MSM never fails to ask the question…and the answer is always deceptively ambiguous:

    9 Oct: Herald Sun: Severe-weather experts tour South Australia in wake of super storm
    Jade Gailberger, The Advertiser
    At the Bureau of Meteorology headquarters on South Tce, hydrologist Alex Cornish was responsible for putting out alerts and advice for SA catchments.
    Mr Cornish, who has 20 years forecasting experience in the UK, has seen cities underwater in major floods and used this experience to strike a balance between giving information early, and giving the best and most accurate information…ETC
    ***But was it climate change that caused the storm? Senior climatologist Darren Ray said that was not the right question.
    “No one can scientifically attribute the formation of this weather system and the rainfall that came out of it, to climate change,” he said.
    “But the wetter conditions we’ve been experiencing have been made worse … by warming oceans (a result of climate change).”
    Ocean temperatures around Australia are currently under the impact of a negative Indian dipole and with data showing it could be the start of a La Nina event, after an El Nino event led to hot and dry conditions last year.
    “We’ve almost gone from one extreme to the other,” Mr Ray said…
    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/severe-weather-experts-tour-south-australia-in-wake-of-super-storm/news-story/e20ad418634d13fc9d73f8d5f8e1579c

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    • #
      toorightmate

      All Premier IllWeather had to do was phone Abel Tasman. Abel would have been able (how’s that?) to inform him about the Roaring Forties.

      43

    • #
      ianl8888

      … by warming oceans (a result of climate change)

      The Argo buoys disagree with the “warming ocean” blah. That’s why these technically advanced, extremely expensive, very smart “thermometers”, which were designed and deployed precisely to supply empirical evidence for this question, are now routinely ignored for bucket measurements taken from ships.

      There is no end to this.

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      • #

        It’s the Ministry of Truth rewriting history, and controlling the reporting of the present to make the rewriting of history easier in the future:

        He who controls the past controls the future. He who controls the present controls the past. - George Orwell

        I just can’t wait until the Ministry of Love get their license to re-educate skeptics. Then the fun begins!

        Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition! - Monty Python

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  • #
    Debbie

    I was once told by a BoM employee that even if they predicted with a 99% probability and if turned out to be different…they’re still not wrong!!!!
    How does that work?????

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    • #
      Rereke Whakaaro

      Debbie,

      That is a feature of using probabilities. If I said that 50% of coin tosses would end up heads, then I would always be right. All I need to do is toss the coin a sufficient number of times.

      So it is with weather prediction. Given enough forecasts, over a sufficiently long timeframe, you will get every possible pattern of results, including the one in one hundred chance.

      Using probablities in the way the BoM does is not wrong, but it is not honest either. It is a trick, to fool the masses, and to hide the fact that they can’t actually model a natural system that is so poorly understood, that it has the appearance of being random.

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  • #
    Ursus Augustus

    These predictions just keep coming from the manic-depressive models. Keep it up, BOM et al, when it is finally clear to every one with more than half a brain that the wolf ain’t a coming and that he doesn’t even exist then you will finally diagnosed correctly you sad, desperate to be important, coodabeen a Kardashian wannabees.

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  • #
    ren

    There is now very strong ionization of the atmosphere. The strongest where there is less ozone.
    Strong pressure anomalies over the polar circle. Weak solar wind.
    http://sol.spacenvironment.net/nairas/Dose_Rates.html
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_HGT_ANOM_OND_NH_2016.png

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  • #
    Speedy

    Jo

    In answer to your question… A true scientist never KNOWS – they only propose. Evidence is the only “gold currency”.

    Work stuff has kept me been off line this last few months – damn poverty and time poorness. However, I’ve had enough time to read the comments, even if too otherwise involved to give a deserving reply. I sit back in respect of the eclectic minds at play – or most of them, anyway!

    Cheers,

    Speedy.

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    • #
      PeterS

      Close. The very definition of science is “knowledge” ie, to know. More accurate to say a true scientist never admits to know the whole truth – they keep getting closer and closer to the truth by expanding and building up on their knowledge base. Going by this BOM has little to do with science – it’s mostly quackery.

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  • #
    Curious George

    Toss a coin, or use a climate model? Tossing a coin seems more reliable than using BOM models. Lots of work to do, modelers. Meanwhile enjoy your settled science.

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    • #
      PeterS

      Actually a better option for BOM is not to toss a coin but to use a couple of long range weather forecasters right here in Australia. They have a very good track record.

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    • #
      Rereke Whakaaro

      Tossing a coin seems more reliable than using BOM models.

      That is because the BOM models don’t give a toss.

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    • #

      It used to be they’d just hang a piece of string out the window. On any given day, if the string was dry it was sunny, if wet it was raining, and if sideways it was windy. Worked every time.

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      • #
        Rereke Whakaaro

        A military pilot once told me that the windsock was often more accurate than the met forecast, which is why military airfields still have windsocks.

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        • #
          Roy Hogue

          The windsock is only good up to a point.

          I once had to cope with one that was standing out fully horizontal and at a 90° angle to the runway. No way that would tell me what the wind was except that I would need a lot of left rudder on takeoff (you ordinarily need right rudder, explanation too long but pilots will understand). Fortunately there was a wind speed and direction display in the pilot’s lounge reading 18 knots. That was well within the airplane’s capability so off we went on our first leg of the trip home. When I landed where I had to wait for weather to clear at home base the wind was 20 knots but right in line with the runway. 22 knots when we finally took off again.

          20

  • #
    david

    Still snowing after four months in Falls Creek Australia

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  • #
    Roy Hogue

    To listen to any TV station’s resident meteorologist you would think it was entertainment, complete with big digitally patched in graphics behind the speaker showing the high and low pressure fronts, the predicted temperatures and whatever else they want you to see. Some even have traffic that moves along the major freeways they have on their maps. Their short term forecasts turn out to be reasonably accurate. But these “forecasters” have become personalities, almost celebrities and I’m left wondering if someday the information they dish out will deteriorate into climate change nonsense.

    I think they do know better than to try forecasting a month in advance, at least for the time being.

    When I flew I could get good weather briefings for my intended flight if I called the flight service station on the day of the flight. And they could tell me about conditions that might be a problem over the next few days but they never tried to pin down exactly when something would happen. They were not very concerned about temperature unless it affected density altitude seriously (hot day, marginal runway) and they had direct temperature readings from most airports on a regular hourly or more often basis.

    Our national weather service is able to tell what it doesn’t know and what it does — so far.

    NOAA and NASA should be ignored.

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    • #
      sophocles

      Roy.
      all the weather forecasts come from the WMO (World Meteorology Organisation), a division of the UN.

      All daily weather observations (not model outputs) are gathered each day and fed to the WMO, passed through their super computers (digital blenders), the forecasts constructed and fed back to the Weather Offices* of the nations, including your National Weather Service.

      The “next day” forecasts are pretty accurate. The “next three days” forecasts are not quite so accurate, as the longer time increases the uncertainty. The “next five days” forecasts start off well but are even less accurate towards their end, which can sometimes be way off.

      Yes, it is presented as “infotainment” but, being so short term, it’s still pretty accurate.

      1.( * This is where the US Forecast The Facts cretins have it so wrong. The weather forecaster has to present the WMO supplied forecast, and that’s it. Also, the WMO is the parent body of the IPCC … and so it goes …)

      2.(The Weather Machine, subtitled: and the Threat of Ice by Nigel Calder spells it out. It’s a very good book, published in 1974. Amazon shows some hardback copies 2nd hand for $0.83c + postage, so it wouldn’t break the bank to purchase a copy, or you may be able to find a copy through a public library. It’s very readable, very interesting and impeccably researched. I picked up a 2nd hand copy for 0.01c + postage several years ago. It’s now a favourite reference book. It contains all the information about the cooling of the Atlantic in the early 1970s, information William Connally et al removed from Wikipedia.)

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      • #
        Roy Hogue

        Sophocles,

        Since I no longer fly I have little interest in weather forecasts anymore. I would not know what they have to say about any given day if the forecasts didn’t come along with various news broadcasts. I have always been prepared for good or bad weather when I leave the house and whatever it turns out to be I must cope with it. No way around that. So I don’t look for today’s forecast when I get up in the morning.

        Interesting though that the WMO has a monopoly on weather forecasts. When will we ever learn?

        If I told you what I think of thee UN right now Jo would probably ban me from her blog. And it isn’t just because of the WMO.

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  • #
    • #
      sophocles

      el gordo:

      “Hoist with their own petard” comes to mind. Their analysis is based on Salinger’s work. Salinger teamed up with a statistician and published a more rigorous method for handling the data. NIWA does not seem to have applied it. De Freitas et al have. The result speaks for itself.

      You should be able to find a pdf on the web to read it if you haven’t already.

      30

  • #
    Robber

    As I’m going to Mansfield, Vic this weekend I have started watching BOM’s 7 day forecasts for the town.
    Friday 2-19 degrees, sunny.
    Sat 5-21, mostly sunny
    Sun 11-18, shower or two. (Does that mean if there are three showers they are wrong?)
    Mon 7-15, shower or two.

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    • #

      Keep an eye on it because it will change for each of those days day-by-day, especially when it comes to rain, cold and snow. I’ve even known them to change it on the day itself. You cannot trust what they predict even only days ahead! That conputer just isn’t working in any time frame!

      (“Conputer” was a typo, but I decided to leave it as is. I’m sure you can see why.)

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    • #
      Annie

      You might think of bringing galoshes, as well as warm clothing, tee shirt, rain jcket, hat and gloves, good insect repellent (there are giant mossies breeding in all the lying water), sunscreen for when you get a glimmer of sun, sunglasses to screen your eyes from all the bright yellow capeweed…
      It’s not just Melbourne that has 4 seasons in a day. However, being inland it’s warmer in the summer and colder in the winter. We don’t have the moderating influence of the sea but also don’t have Melbourne’s UHI.
      Actually I don’t live in Mansfield but in the general area. Have a good weekend, whatever the weather brings!

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      • #
        Robber

        Thanks for the feedback Annie. I will be with good friends, enjoying some tennis and golf and a bit of geocaching, some good wine and food, some stimulating conversations, so mossies and weather will not dampen our spirits.

        20

        • #
          Annie

          It sounds good Robber. Still very wet here and occasionally squally with some glimpses of a bright thing up in the sky.

          10

    • #
      Robber

      An update to BOM forecasts for Mansfield this coming weekend from their Tuesday to Thursday forecasts:
      Friday 2-19 and sunny changed to 2-20 and sunny
      Saturday 5-21 and mostly sunny changed to 7-21 and mostly sunny
      Sunday 11-18 and shower or 2 changed to 13-20 and showers increasing
      Monday 7-15 and shower or 2 changed to 8-16 and showers.

      10

  • #
    pat

    11 Oct: Australian: Graham Lloyd: How hardcore greens trumped unions on renewable energy target
    (Additional reporting: Joe Kelly)
    The target was hatched in a room above a pub in central ­Melbourne in late 2014 by a self-declared “scraggly bunch” of ­environmentalists operating within the party.
    A re-energised Labor Environment Action Network went on to mount an aggressive grassroots campaign across the ALP branch network that conquered party heavyweights despite strong objections from the CFMEU.
    Bill Shorten adopted LEAN’s 50 per cent renewables target by 2030 shortly before the ALP’s ­national conference last year, ­admitting he had no idea how the party would get there…
    Citing a Bloomberg New ­Energy Finance Report, Mr Frydenberg warned the Labor policy would cost $48 billion and took aim at Mr Shorten for refusing to explain how to achieve the 50 per cent target until October next year. “We are told that will ­require 10,000 turbines. Where are they going to be built?” Mr Frydenberg said. “If you had a $48bn program, you’d expect you’d have a bit of detail to show.”…READ ALL
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/climate/how-hardcore-greens-trumped-unions-on-renewable-energy-target/news-story/f24c7b968392bb0e48945cb33bc8f5c8

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  • #
    pat

    the dream lives on.

    another Reuters reporter joins all the other former Reuters reporters at CarbonPulse:

    10 Oct: CarbonPulse: Carbon Pulse adds seasoned China reporter ahead of national ETS launch
    An experienced China carbon and energy reporter has joined Carbon Pulse from Thomson Reuters to boost the depth and quality of coverage of what will be the world’s biggest emissions trading scheme.
    Kathy Chen has taken up a position as researcher at Carbon Pulse after having covered Chinese carbon markets and climate policy for Reuters and Point Carbon since 2010, as well as renewables, coal, natural gas and oil…
    Chen has covered carbon markets since 2010, when she joined the Beijing office of Point Carbon, which was shortly thereafter acquired by Thomson Reuters…
    http://carbon-pulse.com/25147/

    as if Stern cares about anyone but himself & his cronies!

    10 Oct: ClimateChangeNews: Karl Mathieson: Indigenous land rights fundamental to climate safety – Lord Stern
    Forests and grasslands would store more carbon if communities’ rights were protected, according to research from the leading climate economist
    The world must become “zero net carbon” by 2070-80 if it wants to stay within the 2C limit set by the Paris climate agreement, said (Lord) Stern, or “much earlier for 1.5C”. But some industries – including aviation – are expected to continue emitting carbon late into the century.
    “If there are going to be some that are [carbon] positive,” Stern told an audience at a World Resources Institute (WRI) event in Washington, DC, “there have got to be some that are negative and it’s the forests and the grasslands that are the big potential source there.”…
    With the leaders of the G20 and the governor of the Bank of England pushing for great investment in green projects in recent weeks, Stern said “secure land rights, whether they be of indigenous people or anybody else, is fundamental to investment”…
    The economic benefits accrued by avoided emissions and the value associated with keeping forests intact was estimated at a whopping US$523 billion–1.165 trillion in Brazil over the next 20 years. In Bolivia the savings could be $54–119 billion and $123–277 billion in Colombia.
    That is based on the social cost of carbon used by the US government, of $41 a tonne. Stern said it was a conservative figure and the actual value of avoiding dangerous climate change was likely to be higher…
    “We are talking about justice here”…
    http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/10/10/indigenous-land-rights-fundamental-to-climate-safety-lord-stern/

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  • #
    Liberator

    Go and see if you can find the latest BOM extreme weather forecast video of Facebook which I think covers off the next 4-6 months. I’m not really sure what time frame it’s covering – it did mention October to April. I watched it on Facebook last night. All I got out of it was we may have more cyclones, we may have more heatwaves, we may have more bushfires and we may have more thunderstorms. Please correct me if I’m wrong.

    32

    • #
      el gordo

      There maybe isolated bushfires and heatwaves, but for most of the continent it will be cooler and wetter than average.

      31

  • #
    pat

    the FT’s chief leader writer Jonathan Ford goes off script!!!

    10 Oct: Financial Times: Jonathan Ford: Evolutionary strategy needed for UK’s climate policy
    But the real problem comes when you consider where all this new low-carbon kit is going to come from. The obvious choices – nuclear and renewables – are, in their present form, neither adequate or affordable…
    Some technologies are so costly in terms of the benefits they deliver that arguably it is rational to prefer climate change and its harms to the economic damaged caused by their adoption…
    No insurance policy on carbon emissions can ever work without international emulation
    The US Environmental Protection Agency has produced estimates of the so-called “social costs” of emitting carbon, which ut these at $12-$120 a tonne in 2015, rising to $29-$240 if the emission takes place in 2050. Compare these with subsidy costs per tonne of carbon dioxide saved by offshort wind, which come to no less than $274, a figure that can be calculated from UK government data. Add in all the other costs and these balloon to a staggering ***$470 a tonne…
    Given the global dimension of the climate issue, no insurance policy on emissions can ever work without widespread international emulation. That’s why any UK policy that involves excessive spending is ultimately self-defeating…
    https://www.ft.com/content/94dcb96a-8e12-11e6-a72e-b428cb934b78

    ***note those $$$ figures. the public has no clue where the CAGW scam is heading.

    shameful:

    10 Oct: ClimateChangeNews: Rwanda sets its sights on a historic international deal
    Its own cooling system may leak, but Kigali Convention Centre is hosting a revolution in climate-friendly air conditioning
    By Lou Del Bello in Kigali
    Normally, these meetings draw about 500 people, but Dan Teng’o of the UNEP Ozone Secretariat is expecting a bigger crowd this time, as it is “a historic event”. US secretary of State John Kerry is among the high level representatives…
    “We are happy,” says Gerald Cyaruhinda, a waiter who works at the conference center. “The economy is growing and seeing all these international visitors makes me proud, it means that Rwanda is developing.” I ask him if he envisages an increase in the number of cooling systems installed as Rwanda gets richer. “Of course we need more refrigeration, it gets pretty hot here.”
    It looks like the art of air conditioning is yet to be mastered at the venue: three months after its opening, the cooling system still causes leaks on the floor that soak shoes and bags. But being at an early stage of infrastructural development, Rwanda has a chance to go straight to climate-friendly coolants…
    Rene Nzabakira, a student attending the meeting as an observer, is confident that it won’t be difficult for the economy to grow sustainably…
    http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/10/10/rwanda-sets-its-sights-on-a-historic-international-deal/

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    • #
      MariC

      I posted in a different thread – http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/13/world/asia/india-air-conditioning.html – and it seems I should have waited to post here. I am glad those at the Kigali center are sweltering in a lack of A/C, and they should deem themselves hypocrites of the highest order for leaking the very stuff they are calling to ban.

      The article also mentions the much higher cost of the “climate-friendly” coolants – the ones that are toxic and flammable and require sturdier housing and tubing and maybe more power…

      10

  • #
    pat

    10 Oct: Yahoo: CNBC: Forget ‘Peak Oil’: We could reach ‘Peak Demand’ for energy before 2030
    A new report from the World Energy Council has found that per capita energy demand will peak in the next decade or so.
    The report, launched at the 23rd World Energy Congress in Istanbul, states that “unprecedented efficiencies created by new technologies and more stringent energy policies” would see primary energy demand growth diminish and per capita energy demand peak before 2030.
    World Energy Scenarios 2016 – The Grand Transition, was produced by the WEC “in collaboration” with Accenture Strategy and the Paul Scherrer Institute.
    “It is clear that we are undergoing a Grand Transition, which will create a fundamentally new world for the energy industry,” Ged Davis, executive chair of scenarios at the World Energy Council, said in a news release.
    “Historically people have talked about Peak Oil but now disruptive trends are leading energy experts to consider the implications of Peak Demand,” Davis added…
    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/forget-peak-oil-could-reach-120421910.html

    notes: Accenture began as the business and technology consulting division of accounting firm Arthur Andersen (Wikipedia); The Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) is a multi-disciplinary research institute which belongs to the Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain covering also ETH Zurich and EPFL (Wikipedia).

    ***u can’t make this stuff up!

    World Energy Council: World Energy Scenarios 2016 – The Grand Transition
    ***The report ‘World Energy Scenarios 2016: THE GRAND TRANSITION’ presents three exploratory scenarios — Modern Jazz, Unfinished Symphony, and Hard Rock. These provide users with a common language for thinking and talking about current events. They provide energy leaders with an open, transparent, and inclusive framework to think about a very uncertain future, and thus assist in the shaping of the choices they make.
    The study has developed three realistic scenario stories using an explorative approach rather than the more commonly used normative, methodology…ETC
    ***Download publication files:
    http://www.worldenergy.org/publications/2016/world-energy-scenarios-2016-the-grand-transition/

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  • #
    Egor TheOne

    Who can predict indeed?

    Maybe its time for another round of dud climate predictions of doom….Where is climate premonitionist ‘Sage Flannery’??

    Or is he still in hiding?

    How many suckers there are that believe all this rubbish and want to believe…the CAGW gullible.

    Its all no more than simpleton mob mentality being driven by ‘pretend True B’lvers’ on a racketeering and/or ratbag political agenda.

    Warning: medievalists at large! Beware: climate skeptic(realist) imprisonments and witch burnings to begin soon.

    A Trump presidency will begin an end to this global scam where as an el presidente Hitlery will only enforce it even worse than Dictator O’Bummer.

    Vote ‘the Donald’ for Pres and ‘the Hitlery’ for jail(along with BS Bill).

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    TdeF

    Could someone explain why, if the world models cannot predict even the temperature correctly from CO2 we should accept the prediction of ‘more’ extreme events? Why would there be more? What is the mechanism? Where is the chain of logic? Is there any actual proof of this? Has anyone even tried to justify this scientifically?

    So far the clear evidence is that even the tiniest increase of an average, barely above the old error bars has meant far fewer extreme weather events but you could argue that a reduction in storms is just meaningless natural variation. Of course if the number of cyclones had increased, it would be proof of Climate Change. In fact I read a comment this week that the reduction in frequency of storms is itself proof of Climate Change.

    Also why is every storm, storms we used to have which were once meaningless and random storms, is deemed to be conclusive proof of man made climate change. So which storms are not climate change and just the climate which used to include storms? How can anyone tell? Flannery claimed an October NSW bushfire (later admitted to be lit by the army) was proof. What special characteristic does a storm have to have to be anything other than natural? How does a dead kangaroo expert tell the difference?

    This is ignoring the fact that the increase of CO2 is not correlated with temperature at all according to expert Prof Salby. However it is quite obvious the anti coal people are prepared to blame all Australian storms on Australian CO2, even though 98% is from overseas. This is a Green chant. Meaningless.

    In the middle of the Millenium drought when John Howard was asked on the steps of parliament what he was going to do about ‘the worst drought in 1,000 years’ he simply said ‘How do you know that’? The next morning the Melbourne Age ran the headline, “worst drought in 100 years”. It is all made up stuff presented as a thing called ‘The Science’ as in ‘The Bible’. To deny The Science is to be a denier, an unbeliever, a heretic. Surrender your first born to the priests or pay a carbon tax. What you need is faith and redemption.

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      TdeF

      This idea of more extreme weather and more frequent extreme weather caused by increased (man made) CO2 has been foisted on the public as fact without any attempt at justification or explanation or even faulty logic. Who originally said this was true? Does it even have a source? Proof? Even logic?

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        theRealUniverse

        This might give you a slight clue…
        From ‘Spencer Socery on Magic Gas’ by P E Olsen.
        “Offhand remarks about greenhouses by Jean-Baptiste Fourier have led the Alarmists to
        claim him as ‘father of the Greenhouse Gas Hypothesis’ [3]. In this same report Fourier
        claims all volcanism is due to ‘original heat of origin’, but since there would be no
        periodic table, Laws of Thermodynamics or model of the atom for over fifty years,
        Fourier can be forgiven for his speculation. Other Alarmist credit Svante Arrhenius as
        the [[snip] real] father, but he was quickly discredited by Knut Angstrom [4] and in 1909
        Professor Robert Woods of Stanford proved that NO greenhouse can capture radiant
        energy. The Carbon forcing [[snip] idea] was revived with federal funding under Big Bush
        beginning in 1988. The last year of GAO records in 2014 indicate an annual expense of
        $12 billion to fund this [[snip] activity].”
        http://fauxscienceslayer.com/

        [Editorial discretion applied.] AZ

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    pat

    11 Oct: Tim Blair blog: SUN SETS ON SUNSETS
    Weren’t lefties telling us just a week or so ago that politics should be kept out of the climate debate?
    Let’s see what those same lefties have to say about this press release from Southern Cross University, which is launching some kind of Greens-breeding program in NSW schools:
    It is the challenge we can all play our part in. But this Wednesday (12 October) at Southern Cross University (East Lismore NSW) (LINK) students will take the lead when more than 300 children and teenagers from local schools will share ideas on how to combat climate change …
    Organiser David Rousell, a Research Fellow and lecturer from the SCU School of Education, said the new school-based curriculum, culminating in the challenge enabled students to have their own response to climate change and acknowledges kids as experts in their own lives…
    “We have worked with kids and teachers directly to create a climate change curriculum, the first of its kind in the world, which is now going into schools …
    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/blogs/tim-blair/sun-sets-on-sunsets/news-story/f5d3c3e33c7551dda49d0d914175f1f6

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    pat

    how appropriate 4-traders website is the only site picking up this story so far:

    11 Oct: 4-traders.com: Southern Cross University : SCU challenges climate change at ideas fest
    It is the challenge we can all play our part in. But this Wednesday at Southern Cross University, students will take the lead when more than 300 children and teenagers from local schools will share ideas on how to combat climate change.
    The Climate Change Challenge will be held at the Lismore campus from 10am where students from ages 8 to 15 can take part in the ‘photo voice’ competition, where they can use photography to have a voice on the issue and win prizes…
    Mr Rousell said schools in Bexhill, Mullumbimby and Alstonville had taken on the inter-disciplinary model which can be implemented through any English, creative arts, science and history classes, based around the method of students working together…
    ‘We even received submissions from students throughout the holidays who have taken up the challenge in their own time, because they understand it is up to them to help create change.’ …
    Media contact: Jessica Huxley, media officer, Southern Cross University
    http://www.4-traders.com/news/Southern-Cross-University-SCU-challenges-climate-change-at-ideas-fest–23192948/

    above has a link to an SCU page, but error message comes up.
    below is the team – page has logos for scu, nsw govt & nsw environmental trust.
    if u click on About The Project, it begins: CC + ME is a three-year project with four distinct stages and objectives:

    ClimateChangeAndMe.com.au: About The Team
    http://climatechangeandme.com.au/about/the-team/

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      TdeF

      Give me a child when he is young. Or Aristotle’s “Aristotle — ‘Give me a child until he is 7 and I will show you the man.” This is indoctrination. I thought progressives were against religion in schools?

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        crakar24

        Last week in the local papers letter section a grade 3 child told me CO2 floats in the air like a blanket trapping heat, we start our indoctrination early here in South Oz.

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          Rereke Whakaaro

          You should have responded by asking the child, how high the blanket was, what colour it was, and why couldn’t everybody see it, when they looked up into the sky?

          With any luck, the child would ask their teacher indoctrinator who could not answer the question, without digging themselves into an even deeper hole.

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          Griffo

          A blanket 50 km thick with a lot of holes,400 warmy molecules within 1 million mostly nitrogen and oxygen some water vapour and the inert gases.

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      el gordo

      From Pat’s link:

      ‘David Rousell is research fellow and project manager for the Climate Change and Me project. He is an artist, educator and researcher at Southern Cross University, where he is also completing his PhD entitled States and Territories: Re-imagining university learning environments for the Anthropocene era.’

      He seems like a nice man, but he is totally misguided about the future.

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    el gordo

    Word around the traps say this European winter will be a shocker.

    http://www.climatedepot.com/2016/10/10/europeans-brace-for-coldest-winter-in-a-century/

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    theRealUniverse

    Well as the BOM’s models are probably based on CO2 = klimate change = based on false physics, then its not surprising they cant predict squat!

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    “Thanks to Chris Gillham who pointed out the big cold blob of ocean surrounding Australia on the south and west that gave Perth its coldest ever September nights.”

    If I could clarify … in Perth and the 15 WA ACORN stations south of Geraldton and east to Eucla, September had its coldest mean temperature since 1897 unadjusted in RAW and its coldest mean since 1910 adjusted in ACORN.

    They were the coldest September nights on record but as an average of min and max, the mean is a better measurement of whether September was the coldest ever in the south-west of Australia, which it was based on the temp records of 15 ACORN stations and with a start year of 1897 when most major WA stations including Perth had Stephenson screens.

    Details at http://www.waclimate.net/september-coldest-2016.html including spreadsheets of raw and ACORN min, max and mean back to 1897.

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