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Wow? On sea-levels NSW councils told to take “scientific” approach, not IPCC predictions

This is a big deal. Here’s a state government telling people to be more scientific, and not blindly follow the IPCC. This is a win we need to translate to other areas.

The former Labor government in NSW had told councils they had to plan for sea-level rise  “according to the IPCC”, but that made sea-side properties unsalable, and was pretty painfully stupid compared to what the tide gauges were actually saying (like in Sydney where the rise is a tiny 6cm a century). The new strategy says councils need to be scientific and look at the conditions on each beach separately.

In this issue, the costs of following the IPCC plan were borne by those living on the coast (and property developers), and that pain motivated them to press the State government to get the IPCC out of the way. This is a reminder that it is worth protesting and sane things do happen.

If we can get citizens of the free west to appreciate the true cost of the IPCC, it would surely be gone by 2020. Now there’s a target..

Rob Stokes announces shake-up of council coastal management

In an interview with The Australian, Mr Stokes said he would be announcing “a much more scientific and evidence-based ­approach … it reflects recognition that what is happening on the coast is a product of what is happening to the sand off the coast,” he said.

“We will be integrating coastal management and planning with what is happening in the adjacent seabed.

The initiatives mark the second phase of the Coalition government’s demolition of the previous Labor government’s policy, which among other things directed local councils on the coast to enforce the climate change and sea level rise predictions of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Under that regime, councils in some cases included sea-level rise warnings on the planning certificates of some seaside properties based not on what was happening on the beaches concerned — including one that is acquiring sand naturally and pushing back the sea — but on IPCC predictions.

Many owners found that under this policy, their properties became almost unsaleable.

The Taree Council might be the smartest one of all — it plans to let the landowners figure it out themselves. They need to work out the risks, and how much action they should take. That will sort out the skeptics from the gullibles.

Congratulations to researcher Phil Watson, and Bob Carter, and to landholders on NSW coasts. I hear that some especially deserve credit: “Strong thanks are due to Batemans Bay residents Neville Hughes, Pat Aiken and other coastal NSW resident groups for their unwearying opposition to, and protests against, the former policy.”

More information

P. J. Watson (2011) Is There Evidence Yet of Acceleration in Mean Sea Level Rise around Mainland Australia?. Journal of Coastal Research: Volume 27, Issue 2: pp. 368 – 377.  doi: 10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-10-00141.1 [Link Abstract PDF ]

 

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Wow? On sea-levels NSW councils told to take "scientific" approach, not IPCC predictions, 9.1 out of 10 based on 71 ratings

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78 comments to Wow? On sea-levels NSW councils told to take “scientific” approach, not IPCC predictions

  • #
    Chris Hagan

    Is that a misprint? 6 CM is like 2 inches per year?

    130

    • #
      Ted Soares

      Appears to be a misprint. http://joannenova.com.au/2014/12/sydney-sea-levels-rising-at-just-6-5cm-per-century-peak-panic-is-behind-us/ article says net increase (adjusting for subsidence) of 0.16mm/year or 1.6cm/century. 6.5cm/century including subsidence

      100

    • #
      AndyG55

      The actual measured value is around 0.65 MILLIMETRES per year.

      http://s19.postimg.org/o9k545yr7/image.jpg

      171

    • #
      William

      Ted and Andy are right. I quoted it over at Fairfax a week or so ago and got torn to pieces by the alarmists (well they tried) who promptly quoted somewhere with a higher increase. It didn’t matter that I had expressly stated Sydney, they just couldn’t accept that rather inconvenient truth.

      101

    • #

      1 inch is 25.4 millimetres. So 60 Millimeters is 2.36 inches.
      0.65 Millimetres is 25.6 thousandths of an inch.

      40

      • #
        King Geo

        You are good with numbers Siliggy. Clearly those pedalling the “Rapid SL Rise’ scare mongering are not good with numbers or reality. And remember relative SL rise is lower on the eastern margin of Oz than the western margin. It is linked to geology. The western margin is a rift margin so therefore expect very minor subsidence though time. The eastern margin is not a rift margin. Is it any wonder then that relative SL rise is 2-3 times lower on the eastern margin. Tip: buy low lying eastern margin coastal properties now – clearly they have been devalued by the scaremongers e.g. in the past Penny Wong who predicted a SL rise of 1.1m by 2100 – how laughable is that. That prediction is over estimated by a factor of ~4 times.

        Here is Wong’s statement in November 2009 (6 years ago) when she was Climate Change Minister in the Rudd Govt – “The Government’s Climate Change Risks to Australia’s Coasts Report” found between 157,000 & 247,600 existing residential buildings were in danger of being flooded by 2100 if seas rose by 1.1 metres”. Now how damaging is that prediction by a Federal Govt Minister? A minister who is a trained lawyer and I am sure knows SFA about Earth’s eustatic SL changes through geological time.

        101

    • #
      PeterPetrum

      I think Jo must have written this just after she woke up! I think she means “per century”.

      70

      • #
        Ted O'Brien.

        It is distracting to find a government on side. Pity about the slip. Per century it should have been.

        20

  • #

    It is nice to see they have decided to employ the scientific method rather than appealing to a political body.

    I cannot for the life of me understand why greens invoke the IPCC as if it were holy writ. The IPCC does no original scientific work. Rather, it is a subjective collation of scientific literature edited and published by politicians in a concerted effort to support a failed hypothesis. How can any scientific compendium whose final edition is the work of politicians and not scientists be taken for anything but propaganda?

    I pity those scientists that have no choice but to go along or become unemployed and ostracized. Could it be more Orwellian?

    311

    • #
      Roy Hogue

      Could it be more Orwellian?

      Be careful what you enquire about. You might just get it in these days of everything gone off the rails.

      90

      • #
        Roy Hogue

        And it’s good to see you back commenting, Eddy.

        110

      • #
        KinkyKeith

        Roy

        This might be O/T but my son just returned home having heard on the radio that France had been subjected a coordinated bombing attack,

        possibly by a religiously associated group.

        While deploring the act, at another level it will certainly do what many on this site suggested earlier, namely, take away the impetus of

        the CAGW Conference and relegate it to a sensible level in the list of what problems the world needs to address.

        No doubt those lining up for the climate catastrophe conference will be absolutely besides themselves that the heat has gone out of Global warming.

        The big T word and Political Honesty are the two biggest problems faced by developed countries at the moment.

        Loss of democracy by stealth by the unipcccc is NOT a joke and neither is the yoking of young minds to the CAGW meme in our schools and political discussion.

        KK

        50

    • #

      I’d suggest it’s actually the cost that’s hitting home and driving this change. As soon as the true cost of following this insanity begins to hit home to all and sundry, this entire thing will crumble rapidly.

      130

      • #
        Manfred

        Absolutely Bemused. I agree. The cost is prohibitive, counter-developmental and may well reduce community cohesion, quite consistent in most respects to cardinal characteristics of the ‘climate change’ ™ charade. Many Councils have become infected with the Green-chancre. They have implemented multiple UN polices, including UNEP promoted divestment (Dunedin, NZ), based solely on IPCC modeling and UN policy. As real costs, consequences and unintended consequences gnaw their way home, perhaps such intellectually sickened Councils will increasingly be seen as such, as pariahs, isolated from reason.

        I had just come here from visiting over at the GWPF site, where I had read with much satisfaction the same announcement:

        Australia’s NSW Government Abandons IPCC-Based Sea-Level Policy

        This new NSW coastal policy (text pasted below) is a big, very big, announcement. Provided the State Government can make it stick (and Green activist planning to attack and undermine the policy will already have begun), this is a significant development for NSW/Australian politics and an international precedent to boot. So far as I am aware, this is the first time that a serving Western cabinet minister has ever publically rejected the advice of the IPCC in such an abrupt fashion as this.

        The new and sensible policy of treating the coastal zone as a geomorphically active one and in insisting on the application of empirical data at specific locations (rather than generalized computer model projections) for planning and management purposes, the NSW government is following almost to the letter the advice contained in the two following reports:

        http://www.thegwpf.org/new-report-urges-cost-effective-adaptation-to-sea-level-change/

        https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/commentary-and-analysis-whitehead-associates-2014-nsw-sea-level-report

        60

  • #

    “… only 6 cm a year” — must be a typo and the associated link does not seem relevant.

    50

    • #
      James Bradley

      Probably a typo – be closer to 6cm per century.

      60

    • #
      Yonniestone

      6 cm (60mm) is the inside diameter of 63mm (2.5″) exhaust tube about 3 fingers wide, 0.65 is the thickness of engine gaskets, so no need to blow a gasket over a bee’s dick sea level rise.

      50

      • #
        Rod Stuart

        And 150 mm is the size of Michelle Obama’s Johnson!

        41

      • #
        bobl

        Yonniestone, yes, Perspective – sea level rise is at most 1.5mm per year that’s a stack of sand 3 grains high! So the ocean can’t deposit a sand layer 3 grains high in a YEAR!, well tickle me pink.

        61

  • #
    Roy Hogue

    Wouldn’t it be nice if the whole problem of so much control over coastal real estate — personal property after all — just went away?

    No one has yet predicted what sea level rise would occur and the whole thing is a tempest in teapot for foolishness.

    90

  • #
    jorgekafkazar

    Meanwhile, elsewhere around the globe, the Lysenkoist insanity level continues to rise at 6 cm per year.

    90

  • #
    Dennis

    Well done all people involved.

    50

  • #
    el gordo

    The left wing media think this is not news, let’s give them a couple of days to wake up.

    60

  • #
  • #
    pat

    am sure jo will correct the 6cm when she arises in WA!
    however, I copied the following last nite but am glad I didn’t post it til now, as it shows how the same story can be spun in the hands of a CAGW fanatic like Hannam:

    13 Nov: SMH: Peter Hannam: Climate change: NSW planning overhaul to be biggest in decades, says Rob Stokes
    Coastal residents, councils and developers have been given three months to have their say before the Baird government introduces the biggest shake-up in maritime planning in more than three decades.
    Quote: “Changes to climate are likely to intensify our existing hazards.” Rob Stokes, Planning Minister
    On Friday, Planning Minister Rob Stokes released for consultation a draft bill for a new Coastal Management Act, changes to a management manual for councils and proposals to repeal three existing policies and replace them with a new State Environmental Planning Policy (SEPP)…
    PHOTO CAPTION: Storm surges and rising sea levels are among the challenges facing coastal developments…
    Climate change is one element that residents will need to take into account, with sea level changes, storm cells and even changes to swell directions likely to have varying impacts along the 2000-plus kilometres of the state’s coast.
    “Changes to climate are likely to intensify our existing hazards,” Mr Stokes told Fairfax Media, adding that while many of the problem areas are known, other new ones may emerge…
    While overall sea levels are projected to rise perhaps by half a metre or more over the century because of global warming, the localised impacts are likely to vary according to a range of factors including whether the areas are dominated by rocky headlands or sand dunes.
    Councils will be given greater flexibility “to test their plans to make sure they are peer-reviewed and based on up-to-date science”, he said…
    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change-nsw-planning-overhaul-to-be-biggest-in-decades-says-rob-stokes-20151113-gkyavg.html

    51

  • #
    manalive

    As long as competent adults are fully informed, and that is the role of the government I believe, then they ought to be free to make up their own minds what to do with their own money.

    110

  • #
    pat

    btw Hannam produced two CAGW pieces yesterday instead of the usual one – doubling down as Paris draws near?

    I still have not found any Fairfax coverage of UN climate chief, Christiana Figueres, stating that a carbon price WILL NOT be part of any Paris deal (Reuters 27 Oct: Climate change deal will not include global carbon price – UN climate chief) so Hannam keeps shilling for one, and Fairfax readers (like ABC’s audience) are none the wiser, unless they read the comments sections of CAGW sceptic websites:

    13 Nov: SMH: Peter Hannam: Getting down and dirty on Direct Action
    An explainer on the Abbott-Turnbull government’s signature climate policy.
    Why do we have a climate policy?
    The world must cut greenhouse gas emissions – possibly to net zero by 2050 – to keep global warming below levels that are dangerously disruptive to the environment and our economies that depend on it.
    Governments accept the climate science, which is why about 200 of them will gather this month in Paris to ink a new global treaty to curb emissions that have sent atmospheric carbon dioxide levels to their highest in at least a million years – at a rate NASA says probably hasn’t been seen in 25 million years…
    Although Hunt is right to say the World Bank has a $US100 million ($140 million) reverse auction that “replicates many features” of the ERF, he overlooks the fact the bank, International Monetary Fund and most global leaders say a broad-based carbon price is the way to go…
    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/getting-down-and-dirty-on-direct-action-20151111-gkwxyb.html

    51

  • #
    Robert O

    It’s good there are tide gauges at Fort Denison and there are also the tide marks at Port Arthur, both of which show little sea level rise over 150 odd years. As to the projections, why do they make such preposterous predictions, it’s the same with fears about the acidification of the oceans, all headline grabbing stuff but with little substance.

    The old Roman ports around the Mediterranium are now many Km. from the sea which show that both sea and land levels rise and fall over time; it’s normal.

    112

    • #
      TdeF

      Yes, when did an archaeologist dig upwards? Everything gets buried. Ports are often in tidal estuaries which silt up. You also get massive land movements like Northern Sweden and Scotland where after the recent ice age, the land is still springing back at 1 metre per hundred years, 1cm/year! Cities have to keep moving just to be near the sea the the Roman port of Ostia is now 40km inland.

      The fantasy is with coral atolls which grow rapidly with sea level rise. Drilling in Bikini with the atom bomb tests showed the coral to be kilometers thick. Charles Darwin had this theory of sinking mountains. Then you get the people on the Pacific islands which were all uninhabited at the time of Christ, which is why NZ has no snakes or spiders. People are now inhabiting paradise, subject to cyclones, lack of fresh water, overpopulation, land level changes in both directions and tsunamis. Sea level changes are the least of their problems. Somehow industrial democracies should be forced to pay for this lifestyle choice.

      71

    • #
      Dariusz

      The reason why lots of the Roman settlement are well above now is because of the African plate subducting under the Eurasian plate casing its uplift. A similar process of the Indian plate attempting to subduct under the same Eurasian plate continues further south causing the Himalayas. This is nothing to do with what geos call eustatic sea level variation or absolute sea level variations which is notoriously difficult to evaluate (not involving tectonics or sediment input variations- related to paleoclimate).
      What geos discovered 200 years ago and was summarised by Exxon in 1977 as the global eustatic sea level curve, the lefties, politicians want to be experts in something that they have no idea about.

      70

  • #
    TdeF

    The real question is why Labor is so pro sea rising? How crazy is that and assuming they are not actually crazy, how did this become policy without facts?

    Sure you can quote the IPCC, a trans national unelected political body openly pursuing wealth distribution , but who really believes their story? How can you have Global Warming without an actual temperature rise? How can you have man made Climate Change without Global Warming? How can the IPCC claim rapid runaway turning point warming while admitting there is none and that without explanation.

    Global Warming is one of those issues where the population splits between totalitarianism and democracy, between independent thinking and a group mind set, between those who can add and multiply and those who are herded like sheep by politicians. Elect a Liberal/National government and sense prevails. Elect a Green/Labor/Democrat government and we are all quite deliberately herded by fear, faux science and the exercise of absolute power from councils to States to National.

    Fear is a way to control the masses. Science is a new religion. Combine them and you have the Greens and most Labor MPs owe their seats to Green preferences, so the Science ignorant totalitarians rule. The worst of them is Malcolm Turnbull, a lawyer becom merchant banker who still desperately wants an ETS and supports ABC and BOM Green activism. We need our popularly elected PM back, not this Labor/Green poseur, Malcolm Rudd.

    102

    • #
      clive

      The ALP are all “Lefties”

      60

      • #
        el gordo

        As the years roll by a lot of them are becoming sceptical of orthodox climate change theory.

        Nevertheless, we still have a big job in front of us to convince the hardened leftoids in the ALP and Greens that they are on a hiding to nothing.

        70

    • #
      William

      My worry Ted, is that this is happening while Turnbull is in Paris and is likely linked to the earlier more rational Abbott government. And when Turnbull returns from Paris, fired up with chicken little zeal, he will immediately counter the decision because he must be seen to be proactive on alarmism.

      Although I do wonder when the Nationals are going to calm him down – they have the option of withdrawing their support if he goes CAGW rogue,

      60

      • #
        William

        Yes I realise it is a State Government decision, but I do worry Turnbull may try and influence the State government away from Abbott’s practical sense on the subject.

        80

        • #
          el gordo

          The Premier Mike Baird was raised with politics in his blood, Turnbull can’t touch him.

          ‘NSW Premier Mike Baird remains the nation’s most popular politician and his Coalition government is increasing its lead over Labor, the latest Newspoll shows.’

          SBS

          50

        • #
          TdeF

          Remember Turnbull lost his job leading Liberal party because of one issue on which he refused to budge, his insistence on an ETS. Now it is coming because Malcolm says so, despite promises to the National party. He will also dramatically increase taxes, force his views on a Republic, legalize Gay marriage, restart the boat invasions and make sure the ABC staff can do what they like. He has already stopped any questioning of the BOM. Malcolm Rudd is more to the left than Bill Shorten. What the hell were the Liberal MPs thinking to get rid of the man who took them to victory, or was it just a few, utterly disloyal ministers Turnbull, Bishop and Morrison?

          90

      • #

        He may miss Paris after last night’s Paris carnage of several terrorist attacks. But that’s OK, Obama says Climate Change is a bigger threat than terrorism.

        70

  • #
    Tellitlikeitis

    This shows It’s impossible to measure ‘Sea Level’to the Millimeter.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q65O3qA0-n4

    20

  • #
    Ross

    There has been a similar situation in Christchurch NZ. I’m not sure where it is currently at but locals forced the Council into a review of what had said.
    In some ways The Councils have no option but to back track when you have these statements from the IPCC

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/11/12/the-ipcc-does-not-make-recommendations-ipcc/

    If a good lawyer got into Court ( acting for the residents) I’m sure they would be able to twist this IPCC position to win any case.

    60

    • #
      TdeF

      That’s pure semantics. “Summary for policy makers” sounds like a document for people to construct policy and like any useless and devious consultant, the IPCC denies any responsibility for actions taken on their advice but to deny giving advice at all it absurd.

      61

  • #
    nc

    Here is a thought, up here in BC, Canada an extreme weather event causing damage is generally referred to as a act of god. Insurance companies use that to get out of paying. How can that be when it seems extreme weather never happened before man’s c02 emissions. If extreme weather is man caused, insurance companies should pay up. For example covering damage when development is allowed in coastal areas prone to flooding from an extreme weather event caused by man.

    40

  • #
    Neville

    Let’s hope that 6 cm is fixed ASAP. Perhaps Jo is just testing us? But mistakes are easily made.
    Here is NOAA’s info on the latest SLR around the globe and FD Sydney is definitely 0.65 MM year or about 2.2 inches by 2100.

    http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_global.htm

    50

    • #
      Dariusz

      These values show only a relative sea level change as most of them include a component associated with normally compacting sediments. Look for stations that are located on hard rocks like granite away from tectonically active areas abutting the sea. In this way you will get a much better picture of absolute sea variations. In fact after removing this subsidence component you may find that the sea level is unchanged or is going in the opposite direction.
      The other way is to look at the rate of change trends. These demonstrate that the sea change has slowed to almost a zero reflecting an interglacial period that we are living in or what geos call a highstand. In other words the Mother Nature cannot provide any more significant sea level rises as most of the culprit has melted away which we all drink it every day.

      30

  • #

    Pyramid found under the sea.

    Researchers have discovered an underwater pyramid 60 meters high and 8000 meters square base near the Bank De João de Castro, between the islands of Terceira and São Miguel.

    https://youtu.be/Q9C0VabifwY

    10

  • #
    PeterS

    Someone is being more pragmatic about it. Councils don’t like the idea of causing unnecessary alarm forcing people away from their expensive and luxurious water front properties who are paying hefty rates (and land taxes to the state government). See what happens when money is involved? People become greedy. The scammers and federal government want the AGW hoax to continue so they can collect more money via carbon tax or similar, and the local and state bureaucracy want to avoid panic so they can continue to collect high rates and taxes. It’s all about the money, not climate change.

    61

  • #
    crakar24

    OT but are ISIS climate change deniers? (obviously I am appalled at just how little some people value another persons life)

    22

  • #
    handjive

    Paris seems to be understanding that there are more deadly issues than global warming sea level rise in 1000 years.
    Quite timely.

    70

    • #
      Yonniestone

      Yes soon a meeting there will arrange to spend $ trillions of countries wealth to combat an imaginary threat to global civilisation when an actual very real threat exists right under their noses.

      The Vikings in Valhalla will be looking down lamenting at their efforts when all they had to do was feign poverty and project guilt to conquer Paris.

      80

    • #
      Ross

      I read where Gore was broadcasting from near the Eiffel Tower to drum up support for the Paris talkfest. He has a great ability to get his timing wrong.

      Having said that, my condolenses to the hundreds of families directly affected by this horrendous act(s).

      60

  • #
    Egor TheOne

    What ? No CAGSLR ? From 20 foot to 2 inches !

    That has got to hurt the multi-trillion dollar con job .

    Or will it simply be ignored and/or ‘Homogenized’ like any ‘adverse to the (Marxist) cause’ scientific data is subjected to ?

    But no facts will stop the grand gathering of pretenders and thieves at the upcoming Paris Pre-Enlightenment Hajj .

    They are already gathering now in eager anticipation of how many trillions they can steal from us ,to squander on useless junk policies , idiotic mitigation fantasies and large scale rackets .

    Also I would bet that all LearJet parking spaces are booked out in advance , by these supposed co2 (carbon pollution) conscious .

    We must do as they say , not as they do ……after all , we are just the ‘little people’!

    Fleecing time is upon us again ……our Totalitarian Unelected Nutters (U.N.)looking out for us ,yet again .

    Forgive me if I salute only with my middle finger !

    60

  • #
    Ruairi

    The minuscule rise of the sea,
    Is what skeptics expected would be,
    That marine inundations,
    Wouldn’t swamp coastal nations,
    As foretold by the I.P.C.C..

    130

  • #
    pat

    India, S-E Asia ignored, China misrepresented, but you get the ***message:

    13 Nov: ClimateChangeNews: Megan Darby: Are major economies putting the squeeze on coal?
    Upcoming G20 and OECD meetings promise a crackdown on fossil fuel subsidies, but their actions tell a different story
    ***Coal is the single biggest threat to a stable future climate…
    There is an OECD bid to phase out coal export credits, a broader G20 push against fossil fuel subsidies and a climate risk disclosure drive…
    But these things are easier said than done, as vested interests lobby fiercely behind the scenes…
    In a compromise struck with the US, it does not propose a complete ban, as some environmentalists would like…
    There are holdouts. Australia and South Korea have both submitted weaker proposals…
    Still, Richard Denniss, chief economist at The Australia Institute, wants to see more aggressive measures.
    “Information helps, but we need to go much further than disclosure; we need to go to investigation,” he says…
    http://www.climatechangenews.com/2015/11/13/are-major-economies-putting-the-squeeze-on-coal/

    novel-length contortions, read all:

    13 Nov: CarbonBrief: Simon Evans: Explainer: The legal form of the Paris climate agreement
    The aim of the UN summit in Paris is to seal a universal, international agreement on avoiding dangerous climate change, that has legal force…
    Yet according to a Financial Times interview, US secretary of state John Kerry “insisted the agreement was ‘definitively not going to be a treaty’”. The interview has sparked a series of responses, articles and questions. What’s going on?
    The answer comes down to the definition of a treaty and the US Senate’s likely refusal to ratify any Paris agreement. “The term ‘treaty’ has a different meaning within the US than internationally,” Dr Franz Perrez, Switzerland’s chief climate negotiator, tells Carbon Brief…
    Privately, US sources agree that Paris will agree a “legal instrument”. In a moment we will explore in more detail how the US can sign up without Senate approval, and how states will be bound.
    For now, it’s just worth reiterating the breadth of support for an international, legally-binding agreement, which will technically be a treaty — even though it will not be given that name…
    (FINALE) Yamin (Farhana Yamin, a legal expert and veteran of the UN climate process) says:
    “In a way I’ve let go of my puritan ideals as a lawyer as to what a good agreement means…Are public perceptions around the inevitability of climate action more important than the legal form of the deal? Yes.
    ”http://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-the-legal-form-of-the-paris-climate-agreement

    31

  • #
    pat

    the “keep it in the ground” Guardian is shameless:

    12 Nov: Guardian: Rob Davies: Will the lights go out in the UK this winter?
    National Grid is adamant there will be no blackouts this winter, but the safety cushion between supply and demand is increasingly threadbare
    Anyone of a nervous disposition should mark 11 January in their calendar as the moment to have torches, candles or paraffin lamps at the ready.
    That is the day when, according to National Grid’s forecast, the gap between Britain’s energy needs and its power supply will be at its wafer-thinnest…
    National Grid has been forced to find increasingly inventive and expensive weapons to stave off power cuts. And despite its beefed-up armoury, it still risks sailing closer to the wind than is comfortable…
    An even larger weapon, yet to be wielded, is the supplemental balancing reserve, under which power suppliers are paid to fire up mothballed power plants.
    So will these tools need to be called upon again? What’s more, will they work?…
    Another possibility is to import more electricity from Europe via sub-sea interconnectors or reduce the amount being exported to Ireland.
    But not all of these measures are foolproof and most are expensive…
    If France and the Netherlands are also feeling the chill, it will come down to who is willing to pay the most to get the electricity flowing their way…
    The coal-fired power stations are closing as the government struggles to meet the EU’s target of 15% renewable energy by 2020…
    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/nov/12/will-the-lights-go-out-in-the-uk-this-winter

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  • #
    ARW

    Just read this – sprinting up George St. to escape the inundation. will report back if I make it – wish me luck

    81

  • #
    pat

    12 Nov: Guardian: Damian Carrington: UK becomes only G7 country to increase fossil fuel subsidies
    Tory government is giving billions in ever increasing handouts to oil and gas majors at the same time as cutting support for clean energy, report reveals
    The UK is alone among G7 nations in dramatically increasing its fossil fuel subsidies, despite an earlier pledge to phase them out, a new report has found.
    The revelation will embarrass ministers who want to take a leading role at a crunch UN climate change summit in Paris in December, but who have been sharply cutting support for green energy at home.
    The report from the Overseas Development Institute (ODI) and Oil Change International found that as a whole, G20 nations are responsible for $452bn (£297bn) a year in subsidies for fossil fuel production…
    New tax breaks for North Sea oil and gas production announced by the chancellor, George Osborne, earlier in 2015 will cost taxpayers a further £1.7bn by 2020, according to government figures…
    The International Energy Agency (IEA) revealed on Tuesday a further $490bn a year in subsidies for fossil fuel consumption, mainly cheap fuel…
    Turkey, which currently holds the G20 presidency, is giving tax breaks to support the building of more coal plants than any other Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) country, which could almost double its carbon emissions in the next 15 years…
    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/nov/12/uk-breaks-pledge-to-become-only-g7-country-increase-fossil-fuel-subsidies

    13 Nov: Business Green: Jocelyn Timperley: Pakistan delivers target-free plan ahead of Paris climate summit
    The country’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) on Thursday highlighted Pakistan’s commitment to working with the international community to combat climate change, but stressed growing development needs would require “affordable sources of power generation” and it made no concrete pledges to reduce emissions…
    Pakistan suffers from huge energy challenges, with power shortfalls approaching 50 per cent of national demand in recent years, while a report this year said energy demand could double in the next 10 years and quadruple in the next 20. To address the shortfall, the government is making a push to build coal-fired power plants, with the help of foreign investment from China and others…
    http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/2434655/pakistan-delivers-target-free-plan-ahead-of-paris-climate-summit

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      Dariusz

      Since when the tax cut is called a subsidy?
      Giving money for something that does not work would constitute as a subsidy in my books.

      But who would listen to me. I am an exploration geologist and getting it wrong 90% of the time is my legacy. Who pays for this, tax payer? Never got a single dollar out of them. In fact the opposite is true. We are in a high risk business that cost money and if we discover anything it immediately gets taxed.

      Lefties always try to project their failures on the part of the economy that works. You would not have a hot cappuccino in your Richmond coffee hangout, drive your electric cars, iPods, SMS or Facebook, if it wasn,t for the petroleum and coal industry. Just wait when they switch off your lights and your internet then you will release yourself to nature (living in mud huts and tending to your local wind farm) and test your highly moralistic goals.

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    pat

    foretold by Christopher Booker, for starters:

    12 Nov: UK Telegraph: Reuters: Hinkley Point could bring down EDF, warns shareholders
    EDF Actionnariat Salarie, the utility’s second-largest shareholder, calls the Hinkley Point project ‘a financial catastrophy foretold’
    EDF’s £18bn project to build two nuclear reactors in Britain is so expensive and risky that it puts the survival of the French utility at risk, an association of employee-shareholders has said…
    Standard & Poor’s last month warned that it might downgrade EDF’s debt if it goes ahead with Hinkley Point, because of the project’s high execution risks and substantial investment needs.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/11992245/Hinkley-Point-could-bring-down-EDF-warns-shareholders.html

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    pat

    13 Nov: The Hill: Timothy Cama: Gore suspends Paris climate concert during attacks
    A Paris concert hosted by former Vice President Al Gore to advocate for global climate change action was suspended Friday as the city was hit by multiple terrorist attacks that killed dozens
    The climate event near the Eiffel Tower was still happening around 6:30 p.m. eastern United States time, but it was stopped shortly thereafter.
    The web-based livestream for the event was replaced with a statement.
    “Out of solidarity with the French people and the city of Paris, we have decided to suspend our broadcast,” it says. “Our thoughts are with all who have been affected and the entire nation.”…
    The United Nations’ Framework Convention on Climate Change, the international agency planning the climate pact negotiations, did not immediately respond to a request for comment on how the terrorist attacks will change plans for the meeting, if at all.
    Gore’s event, dubbed 24 Hours of Reality, started hours before the attacks and was planned to feature artists including Duran Duran, Florence + The Machine, Mumford and Sons and Neil Young.
    http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/260144-gore-suspends-paris-climate-concert-during-attacks

    my advice Hallie – take Al Gore to court:

    13 Nov: News Observer: 13-year-old takes NC to court over climate change
    Hallie Turner has been an environmental activist since 4th grade
    Hallie Turner, an eighth grader at Ligon Middle School in Raleigh, has petitioned the state Environmental Management Commission to issue an edict that would require North Carolina to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions by at least 4 percent each year. On Friday, she was in Wake County Superior Court seeking judicial review of the commission’s decision not to hear her petition. Hallie, a climate change activist since the fourth grade, was inspired to take up the issue after reading Al Gore’s book, “An Inconvenient Truth: The Crisis of Global Warming.”
    Read more here: http://www.newsobserver.com/news/local/education/article44813247.html#storylink=cpy
    http://www.newsobserver.com/news/local/education/article44813247.html

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      Dariusz

      Last time I heard from Obamer it was the climate change threat that was worse than terrorism. Surely the death of a few hundred people is nothing to the sea level rise? Sarc.

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    pat

    13 Nov: The Wrap: Paris Attacks: Al Gore Cancels Eiffel Tower Climate Telethon After 5 Hours
    Former Vice President Al Gore pulled the plug on a live benefit for climate change some five hours into a 24-hour streaming show from the foot of the Eiffel Tower on Friday evening.
    “Out of solidarity with the French people and the City of Paris, we have decided to suspend our broadcast of 24 Hours of Reality and Live Earth.”…
    Musicians Elton John and Bon Jovi were slated to play at the event, which did see a performance from Duran Duran, according to a Gore tweet…
    The event made it through roughly 4.5 hours before the live feed was pulled, leaving the homepage of Gore’s site with nothing but a backsplash of an animated Paris, with the phrase, “The World is Watching,” scrawled across…
    http://www.thewrap.com/paris-attacks-al-gore-cancels-24-hour-eiffel-tower-climate-telethon-out-of-solidarity/

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    pat

    reminder:

    4 Nov: Guardian: Adam Vaughan: Al Gore’s plan for huge global climate concerts downgraded to Paris webcast
    Second round of Live Earth music concerts promised by former US vice-president and Pharrell Williams were due to be broadcasted to billions around the world
    In January, the duo and producer Kevin Wall used the World Economic Forum in Davos to announce a global event that would reach 2 billion people across 193 television networks, with promotional materials promising 100 artists in seven shows.
    In May organisers delayed the event from a scheduled date of 18 June and said a free, public concert would be held in Paris in the autumn instead.
    But this week organisers told the Guardian that Live Earth had been reduced to an event on the 13 and 14 November at the Champ de Mars in Paris that will be ***closed to the public and streamed online instead…
    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/nov/04/al-gores-plan-for-huge-global-climate-concerts-downgraded-to-paris-webcast

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    pat

    reminder:

    13 Nov: Voice Of America: AP: Al Gore Hosting Climate Telethon from Paris’ Eiffel Tower
    French President Francois Hollande and former U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan are among other officials scheduled to take part in the event.
    http://www.voanews.com/content/al-gore-hosting-climate-telethon-from-paris-eiffel-tower/3056798.html

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    pat

    reminder:

    6 Nov: Associated Press: France to reinstate border controls for UN climate meeting
    Authorities are on alert for violent protesters as well as potential terror attacks.
    (Interior Minister) Bernard Cazeneuve said on BFM television Friday that the controls will be in place for a month as part of larger security measures around the Nov. 30-Dec. 11 conference. He did not elaborate on how tightly the borders would be controlled or how the border checks would be carried out…
    ***Activist groups say they were informed that the French controls would begin Nov. 13…
    A major protest march is planned through Paris Nov. 29, in addition to several other smaller-scale actions.
    France faces routine protests that are largely peaceful but sometimes degenerate into violence by an extremist fringe. The country saw particularly violent protests during a NATO summit in Strasbourg in 2009.
    http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/cae69a7523db45408eeb2b3a98c0c9c5/Article_2015-11-06-EU-France-Climate-Conference/id-f6867ba09b914bb680e8b6c9f5e3402d

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    PeterPetrum

    I have just emailed Ron Stokes, to congratulate and thank him.

    Dear Rob, as a, past, long-time resident of Pittwater I wish to congratulate you on your new plan for coastal management. I cannot tell you how pleased I am that, at last, one of our parliamentarians has the courage and knowledge to stand up for real science, based on data and facts, rather than the grossly exaggerated claims of the UN IPCC, an unelected, non scientific body with a political agenda that has nothing to do with science. No doubt you will be roundly criticised by those of the left, your opposition and the politicised green groups. I trust that you will maintain the courage of your convictions, supported by those in the science community, on whose expertise you have relied. Well done, and thank you.

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    dp

    If you check the sea level rise in publications from the early 1900′s you’ll see the same numbers. In many places (Hawaii, for example) subsidence exceeds sea level rise. I would consider betting a vital organ that is the same situation in Kiribati and New Orleans.

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    sillyfilly

    Just to add: The Australian misrepresents Watson:

    Mr Watson does not agree with the use of his findings to infer future projections of sea level rise nor does Mr Watson agree that his research casts doubts on the future modelling undertaken by CSIRO.

    From the experts you don’t quote:

    does not call into question the projections of the IPCC nor CSIRO and so there is no basis for anyone else to make such assertions.

    So who’s lying and making up stuff eh! Clearly you should know, being well practised at those arts.

    Strawman. I did not say Watson said the things you accuse me of. As for his quotes, we are used to seeing scientists add politically correct caveats in order that they won’t be ostracized, ignored, cut off from funding or tossed out of their university. The data tells its own story. Once again, you think “opinion” trumps data. you fail to back up your earlier claim, but I’ll publish this anyway. – Jo

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      el gordo

      ‘So who’s lying and making up stuff eh!’

      Strolling along the beach Watson told the truth to the journalist about SLR, then when the Australian published the story all hell broke lose and Smith was given the job of damage control.

      Wasn’t it Watson’s brother who was on the ship of fools in Antarctica?

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