The Australian Abbott government has announced the target of a 26% reduction in emissions of CO2 by 2030. This futile effort to change the weather is all cost and no benefit. It’s 26% reduction in 1.3% (Australia’s share) of 4% (human share) of total CO2 emissions globally. If we succeed there’ll be 0.01% less CO2 in the air (at best).
The only good thing is that the policy supposedly can be achieved without “without any need to purchase emissions reductions from overseas.” That means Australia won’t be feeding the global banker-broker machine and assorted “carbon market” bureaucrats — not until the Labor Party come to government, anyway. This is a big win, helping to slow the cycle of governments feeding vested interests who promote big-government.
For once the Greens had a realistic response, though they probably did not intend it that way:
“The Greens party room also discussed the government’s target. The party’s MPs agreed it was “an all-around science fail” and they “all nodded vigorously”, a senior source said.”
Because “carbon accounting” is a joke, measured in a dozen mindless ways, all sides are spinning this in equal and opposite directions. Black IS white simultaneously, and too much pandering is never enough: “Tim Flannery has said the government’s draft proposals to cut Australian carbon emissions by 30 per cent by 2030 was “vastly inadequate”. Indeed, but the dams filled, didn’t they?
The carbon-reduction leaders of the world are downunder
Australians are great “Green” achievers on a per capita basis, despite the rapidly growing population:
Australian per capita emissions fell by 28% since 1990 – and our population has grown by a monster 38% in the same period. Fully 20% of the 28% comes from land use changes (basically a euphemism for not cutting down bush and regrowth). The pink batts, solar panels, wind turbines have achieved very little. The carbon tax cost $14 billion and reduced global emissions by 0.004%. The dark side of Australia’s “fantastic” reduction is that farmers like Peter Spencer have paid for it on our behalf. More news on that soon.
Mr Abbott said the government’s per capita emissions cuts would be the highest in the developed world.
“It is not quite as high as the Europeans at 34 per cent on (the levels of) 2005. It is better than the Japanese at 25 per cent. It is vastly better than the Koreans at 4 per cent. It’s immeasurably better than the Chinese who will actually increase their emissions by 150 per cent between now and 2030,” Mr Abbott said.
– The Australian “Climate change: emissions reductions target set at 26pc ”
The US and Canada withdrew from the Kyoto Protocol, while Japan, Spain, Denmark, Switzerland and Norway failed to meet their targets in the first commitment period. Australia represents about 1.3 per cent of global emissions, while China (24.1 per cent), the US (14.9 per cent) and the EU (10.4 per cent) are the three biggest emitters.
Australia’s current target of 5 per cent below 2000 levels by 2020 represents a reduction of 13 per cent below 2005 levels by 2020. But the government faces pressure to match commitments by other developed countries such as Canada, which has promised 30 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030 and Japan’s 25 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030.
The costs — modeled as an unbelievably low $660m by 2030
How does a non-nuclear nation with not-a-lot-of-mountains (for hydro) pretend to reduce emissions by a quarter at barely any cost?
The Direct Action plan auction in late 2014 meant it will cost $660m to reduce our carbon emissions by 47 Mt, less than a tenth of our total CO2 emissions. (Our National Greenhouse Accounts estimate our total emissions were 542.6 Mt CO2-e in the year to June 2014.) We’ve already done the cheap and easy things. The numbers just don’t add up.
The modelling done to prepare for last night’s cabinet meeting suggested that a cut of 26 to 35 per cent would lead to a “forgone GDP percentage change” of 0.02 to 0.04 per cent of GDP by 2030. Gross domestic product is expected to be about $3.3 trillion in 2030 in nominal terms, according to the forecasts set out in the Intergenerational Report issued in March. A 0.02 per cent cut to that amount would equal $660m. Mr Abbott is likely to justify the lower target on the basis that Australia has some of the highest population growth of any developed country, which means emissions are strongly linked to economic growth and population growth.
Australia’s population continues to grow at a rate of about 1.5 per cent a year to 2030, compared with the average in the OECD of 0.4 per cent.
The EU’s population is expected to be stagnant to 2030 and Japan’s population is predicted to fall by 0.3 per cent a year.
–The Australian, Tony Abbott cuts ambitions on carbon
Tony Abbott will not be attending the Paris Climate Junket.