JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


Handbooks

The Skeptics Handbook

Think it has been debunked? See here.

The Skeptics Handbook II

Climate Money Paper


Advertising

micropace


GoldNerds

The nerds have the numbers on precious metals investments on the ASX



Archives

Largest lake in world turned to dust bowl with no help from man-made fossil fuels

In a shocking discovery, the largest lake on Earth, covering 360,000km2 in central Africa, dried up to a dust bowl during times when CO2 levels were perfect. Climate change was abrupt, savage, and climate modelers have absolutely no idea what caused it.

Apparently, the dust now blows across the Atlantic and fertilizes the Amazon. So while Climate modelers in Chad circa 2000BC were dismayed and blamed Sahelian traders, Amazonian tribesman sang and danced for the last 1000 years.

 

[ScienceDaily] Largest freshwater lake on Earth was reduced to desert dunes in just a few hundred years

Researchers from Royal Holloway, Birkbeck and Kings College, University of London used satellite images to map abandoned shore lines around Palaeolake Mega-Chad, and analysed sediments to calculate the age of these shore lines, producing a lake level history spanning the last 15,000 years.

At its peak around 6,000 years ago, Palaeolake Mega-Chad was the largest freshwater lake on Earth, with an area of 360,000 km2. Now today’s Lake Chad is reduced to a fraction of that size, at only 355 km2. The drying of Lake Mega-Chad reveals a story of dramatic climate change in the southern Sahara, with a rapid change from a giant lake to desert dunes and dust, due to changes in rainfall from the West African Monsoon. The research, published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences confirms earlier suggestions that the climate change was abrupt, with the southern Sahara drying in just a few hundred years.

Part of the Palaeolake Mega-Chad basin that has dried completely is the Bodélé depression, which lies in remote northern Chad. The Bodélé depression is the World’s single greatest source of atmospheric dust, with dust being blown across the Atlantic to South America, where it is believed to be helping to maintain the fertility of tropical rainforests. However, the University of London team’s research shows that a small lake persisted in the Bodélé depression until about 1,000 years ago. This lake covered the parts of the Bodélé depression which currently produce most dust, limiting the dust potential until recent times.

“The Amazon tropical forest is like a giant hanging basket,” explains Dr Simon Armitage from the Department of Geography at Royal Holloway. “In a hanging basket, daily watering quickly washes soluble nutrients out of the soil, and these need to be replaced using fertiliser if the plants are to survive. Similarly, heavy washout of soluble minerals from the Amazon basin means that an external source of nutrients must be maintaining soil fertility. As the World’s most vigorous dust source, the Bodélé depression has often been cited as a likely source of these nutrients, but our findings indicate that this can only be true for the last 1,000 years,” he added.

Journal Reference:

  1. Simon J. Armitagea, Charlie S. Bristow, and Nick A. Drake. West African Monsoon dynamics inferred from abrupt fluctuations of Lake Mega-Chad. PNAS, June 2015 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1417655112
VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
Rating: 8.7/10 (69 votes cast)
Largest lake in world turned to dust bowl with no help from man-made fossil fuels, 8.7 out of 10 based on 69 ratings

Tiny Url for this post: http://tinyurl.com/qgb6wzh

117 comments to Largest lake in world turned to dust bowl with no help from man-made fossil fuels

  • #
    tom0mason

    Yet another good theory to be demolished…

    The drying of Lake Mega-Chad reveals a story of dramatic climate change in the southern Sahara, with a rapid change from a giant lake to desert dunes and dust, due to changes in rainfall from the West African Monsoon. The research, published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences confirms earlier suggestions that the climate change was abrupt, with the southern Sahara drying in just a few hundred years.

    Then they realize that with further analysis of the lowest levels of the lake bottom, they found that the wrong size drain plug had been used, partly because early K-Mart outlets had difficulty sourcing metric size plugs, but mostly because the Chinese manufacturers didn’t make plugs over 2 meters in diameter.

    401

  • #
    Mike Smith

    Well, obviously, the dust bowl was created by CO2 — the nastiest stuff on earth. We just have to find out where the CO2 came from and I would have thought that was obvious too: dinosaur farts.

    271

  • #
    LeeHarvey

    Clearly this is proof that Mesopotamians and Egyptians were driving SUVs, which obviously had to have been sourced extraterrestrially.

    300

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      Imagine the import duty on stuff from Alpha Centauri……yikes….

      I wonder if Tuten-kah-mun was into bling? One of those lowered Chrysler C300s with an impulse drive would have been the ticket…that and decent doof doof sound system…..

      Word has it impulse drives are plasma tech anyway, so no CO2 issues….

      *grin*

      50

  • #
    Peter Miller

    6,000 years ago was the time of the ‘Holocene Optimum’ when global temperatures were at least 1.0 degrees C warmer than today. This means the tropical rain belts were wider, I.e. their limits were further north than today.

    This paleo-lake is now largely an area of ISIL infestation. A problem which supposed global warming could cure. There you go, yet another good thing about ‘climate change’.

    250

    • #
      toorightmate

      There must be a large number of geologists and palaeontologists peeing themselves about this sort of research.

      We can’t be too far away from the time when one of these noble institutions invents a wheel.

      31

  • #
    Yonniestone

    This settles it, the missing heat finds it’s way into lake Chad slowly evaporating the water until gone, the CO2 levels are irrelevant as we know everything in climate science is doctored, which-doctor is a matter of choice….

    270

  • #
    tom0mason

    Even though the one of the largest changes in climate during the last 10,000 years seems to have happened at around 8,000 years ago. The changes appear to be volcanic in initiation and sparked a deep global cooling.

    Coming out of this cold period it has been noted
    that approximately 5,800 years ago, the return of El Niño (the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation phenomenon, or ENSO) after a hiatus of several millennia.

    Also a professor of geological sciences at Ohio State and a researcher with the Byrd Polar Research Center, Thompson points to markers in numerous records suggesting that the climate was altered suddenly some 5,200 years ago with severe impacts…[from deep within the lower parts of the glacier, recovered] plants were carbon-dated to determine their age and tests indicated they had been buried by the ice for perhaps 5,200 years. That suggests that somehow, the climate had shifted suddenly and severely to capture the plants and preserve them until now. http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2004/12/041219142907.htm

    Each or all of these events may (or may not) have a bearing on what happened to Palaeolake Mega-Chad lake region and the subsequent changes there.

    Isn’t nice to see that climate has always been so settled? :)

    260

    • #
      Another Ian

      tom0mason

      Would that be the Thompson that doesn’t archive his data mentioned by Steve McIntyre for example?

      40

    • #
      tom0mason

      The other thing to keep in mind is that shore lines around Palaeolake Mega-Chad was approximately the same size as The Great Sandy Desert in northwestern Australia at 360,000 km2 (140,000 sq mi). Therefore a huge amount of water there.

      20

      • #
        tom0mason

        Oops,

        I mean that the area encompassed by the shore lines around Palaeolake Mega-Chad was approximately the same size as The Great Sandy Desert.

        50

  • #
    Dennis

    I wonder if researchers are working on a climate change tale about Lake George?

    After all, the news before Lake Chad was in the news there was a media story about Earth running out of water.

    http://www.australiangeographic.com.au/travel/destinations/2011/09/the-amazing-disappearing-lake/

    80

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      Does that mean Canberra will go down the gurgler then?

      20

      • #
        Rereke Whakaaro

        I thought that Australians are discouraged from putting toxic items down the gurgler?

        50

      • #
        Dennis

        Canberra went close to going down during the period 2007-2013 when they formed government when federal debt was zero and after years of budgets in surplus a surplus of $22 billion was handed over to Labor. When they left office leaving a creatively accounted for budget for 2013/14, many unfunded commitments, and having under estimated the deficit by not making funding provisions by more than $23 billion, the Commonwealth of Australia federal government gross debt exceeded $400 billion with a monthly interest liability of more than $1 billion, about the cost of a new public teaching hospital every month.

        Now on a slippery slope of budget financial crisis, but manageable if handled astutely, the last thing we need is the socialists back pulling the levers and adding Greece to the slope.

        41

        • #
          Dennis

          Please don’t forget that the over $400 billion of gross debt does not include NBNCo debt which is off budget, accounted for in the government owned private company’s books. And we need to add the combined debts of state and territory governments and other government owned businesses. Hard to find all the figures but I estimate the cumulative total to exceed $800 billion.

          50

  • #
  • #
    TdeF

    This is why all the meteorologists asked the UN to form an international body to prevent climate change, an IPCC. All the world’s governments and all the world’s men can work to put Lake Chad back together again.

    With the creation of a huge bureaucracy, reports can be written and windmills built to save the planet. All climate change will be stopped immediately, volcanoes and earthquakes and meteors banned and a huge amount of money raised from Western democracies and given to poorer countries like China and the Maldives. This is the power of Socialist meteorology as huge quantities of money are transferred from pocket to pocket. Yes, Taxation is an evil word and so a new mechanism, an ETS will be created to effect the transfer. Lakes will fill and the Sahara will vanish and Gaia will be happy. Just ask Tim, the dear Leader.

    180

    • #
      mmxx

      Nice scenario outline, TdeF!

      We all agree that Tim should just put a plug in it; that is, in his oral orifice and maybe even in the ancient lake.

      Even in the latter fantasy, alarmists would trot out his earlier prognostication that because the previous lake floor is so dry, any run-off water would be absorbed by the soil or evaporate and therefore lake levels would never reform and rise.

      A mere few years ago, he predicted that possibility specifically for eastern Australian major dams before the flooding rains that caused their spillways to overflow and cause damaging inundation downstream. For warmists, this necessitated a transition in terminology from global warming to climate change to better suit the catch-all catastrophist mantra.

      60

  • #
    manalive

    There’s lots of archaeological evidence that 8000 – 4000 years ago when the climate was warmer and wetter the Sahara desert was savannah with flourishing wildlife.
    Because the climate can change radically without human assistance doesn’t of course mean that human GHG cannot have a similar effect, just that if the climate does warm with increasing CO2 concentration it will most probably be, on balance, most beneficial.

    201

    • #
      TdeF

      Burn the heretic! He is, after all, made from Carbon.

      80

    • #
      Manfred

      Presently, climate sensitivity to trivial changes in CO2 has declined and appears likely to continue to do so, QED, rapid radical climate changes are highly unlikely to be related to changes in the small (5%) atmospheric component known as GHG.

      True, warming is always desirable, except for doomsayers, who quite bizarrely also lament, deny and wail about its absence…

      61

      • #
        TdeF

        As I suggested yesterday, the seasonal CO2 sensitivity to climate (real daily temperature) change remains healthy, as you can see from the Mauna Loa graph. If you consider that CO2 is actually dependent on water temperature, as science says it should be, everything fits. What is looking sick is the alleged, unsubstantiated, unexplained and now disproven direct global temperature dependence on CO2.

        51

    • #
      Wayne Job

      Some fifty odd years ago I was in the desert and gibber plains in the middle of OZ. Setting up camp I was rather confounded by the fact that there shells in the sand, rather free looking shells. About a thousand miles from the ocean. Seems to me that the middle of OZ had some serious water also not that long ago.

      30

  • #
    el gordo

    At the height of the Holocene African Humid Period 9000-6000 BP lakes filled depressions which had been dry for eons.

    40

  • #
    el gordo

    NOAA came up with an exact date for a return to desert like conditions, approximately 5,500 years BP.

    60

    • #
      TdeF

      Almost 1,000 years before the building of the Great Pyramids of Giza in 4500BP and the retreat of all people to the Nile valley, which for the most part is a canyon 35 metres deep. So the arrival of the desert created the great civilization. Not all bad then?

      100

    • #
      KinkyKeith

      After the last big ice melt finished there was a short term sea level hump about 7 to 8,000 years back.

      The period 5,500 BP would have been at the low tide mark when waters dropped by several metres.

      Just noticed above that a period Period 9000-6000 BP is mentioned and described as “humid”.

      This was the hump of the melting ice.

      Sea levels have been dropping ever since and going through lower and lower cycles of rise and fall.

      We are currently in a very stable period as far as sea levels are concerned after the most recent fall of about 1.2 metres.

      KK

      100

  • #
    KinkyKeith

    There is a drop in elevation from Lake Chad to the Bodelele depression of about 100 metres. This isn’t much over 550 km.

    The physical layout doesn’t indicate that any trapped water would be there forever given that Lake Chad is about 285 metres above sea level so if it stops raining?

    30

  • #
    Neville

    There was also a super mega drought in NW OZ about 5,500 years ago.
    The McGowan study found that this area suffered a mega drought that lasted for about 1,500 years.
    http://www.gpem.uq.edu.au/disappearance-prehistoric-culture
    Also the Burdekin basin in Qld suffered a drought from 1801 to 1869, the longest period for that basin since European settlement.
    No problems about co2 levels but it seems NATURAL VARIABLITY just couldn’t give a stuff.

    130

  • #
    Killroy

    Wot! No Water?

    10

  • #
    Dariusz

    This revelation is not new. Similar lakes were discovered in Sahara using radar images. In fact radar is a standard geological tool to look for water, look past dense vegetation like I did in in PNG when looking at surface geology.
    Military uses them for looking for bunkers, archeologist for Troys etc, astronomers look at surface of Venus or Titan.

    110

  • #
    TdeF

    On a tangent, I wonder how many Greens, even Vegans understand that everything they eat and thus they too are made entirely and solely from the evil Carbon Dioxide.

    While blaming the entire world’s climatic behaviour on an invisible tiny gas, a pollutant put there by greedy polluters, do they realise that every erg of their own energy comes from burning carbon? This lack of self awareness, even basic chemistry is at the root of this idea that CO2 and CO2 alone is the problem. It is in fact the stuff of all life.

    The only way we can exist out of the water is that the plants created the oxygen and made it out first, and then we humans, oxygen burning carbon lifeforms, took our salt water with us internally, keeping our 40M2 lung surface wet so we can release CO2 into the air and absorb oxygen just like the oceans. Then how did it get to this, that CO2 is the problem, an industrial pollutant destroying our world?

    When did anyone decide that the current world was ideal, at the perfect temperature, with the perfect climate, the ideal amount of water and the right lakes in the right places? It looks more like children decided that any change was bad and formed a group, the People Against Everything and hankered for a time lost when nobody worked, no one was unhappy and everyone was a meteorologist. Bring back Lake Chad! How dare Climates Change without permission!

    102

    • #
      jorgekafkazar

      It would be interesting to see a poll to determine whether Greens have the least notion of the part carbon and CO2 play in their lives.

      110

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        We have an electric car in the carpark near us – I am always tempted to stick a note on the window asking how their coal-powered car is running….

        121

        • #
          Willard

          I dont understand OriginalSteve, do you have a problem with coal? It’s mined in Australia keeping 1000s of fellow Aussies employed, or is it your just keen to keep overseas oil chiefs in the luxury their accustomed to. Did it ever occur to you that the owner of that car doesn’t give a stuff where the electricity is sourced from as long as its local. Maybe you should stop concerning yourself with what other people drive and show some concern for Australian workers.

          14

          • #
            William

            Ahhhhh Willard, I think you may have missed the irony in Original’s posting…….!

            80

            • #
              OriginalSteve

              To be fair, I guess it could have been read either way, but it was intended as a cheeky pop at the coal powered allegedly “clean” car…..

              Or as my young 7 year old sister once asked an electric car driver “but where is the extension lead…?”

              arf arf

              90

            • #
              Willard

              Explain the irony William.

              06

        • #
          Willard

          I get it, OriginalSteve cant come up with anything original when referencing Electric cars.

          12

          • #
            Originalsteve

            TdeF was right about explaining irony….

            It seems I have also inadvertedly hit a nerve…hmmm….

            Oh well….

            C’est La Vie

            00

    • #
      KinkyKeith

      “I wonder how many Greens, even Vegans understand”

      Would it be possible to start a new “awareness” campaign based on this?

      Just imagine people boasting that they ate only “Carbon Dioxide Neutral” foods!

      Join the latest bid to reduce “Carbon”.

      30

    • #
      Robert O

      I think the answer to your rhetorical question is not many. It appears that there is no understanding of photosynthesis and mundane things such as the Krebs cycle, but what else would one expect from scientifically illiterate folk. Apart from the inorganic salt calcium carbonate most animals are carbohydrate of some form, and plants nearly entirely.

      30

      • #
        James Murphy

        First, I mis-read “Krebs” as ‘kebabs’. All this talk of food, and carbon has made me hungry.

        00

  • #
    Ruairi

    The history of climate relates,
    To the changing and variable states,
    Of Earth’s physical features,
    Which a few human creatures,
    Couldn’t cause on such past distant dates.

    121

  • #
    Bulldust

    O/Topic – but this is the red hot news item for the week … yes, Greece is the word. John Quiggan showing his communist tendencies again crying tears for the Greeks and their self-inflicted debt. Those horrible nations and banks that helped this entitled culture limp along for a decade and a half, eschewing any economic rationality:

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-07-01/quiggin-could-greek-resistance-bring-down-the-eu/6585508

    Want to read something a bit more balanced on the Greek situation, then get ready to shoot the dog and sell the farm:

    http://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/shoot-the-dog-and-sell-the-farm

    I sympathise for any hard working Greeks that have deposits in their banks, because they are probably going to lose their hard-earned when the creditors come a calling. For the rest of them, a long hard look in the mirror is the necessary tonic. For other countries, pay attention… this is what the end game of a country mired in entitlement culture looks like.

    On a personal note, having lived in The Netherlands (during their entitlement era paid for by gas – they have changed since), the UK (under Thatcher), South Africa (before the change), the USA (Reagan & Bush Snr), and Australia since 1992… I will say this. Australia has the balance about right. We b*tch and moan about this and that, but it is largely tinkering around the edges… the small things. First world problems. Cheer up, we are blessed in this country, the politics, economy and let’s not forget the weather.

    141

    • #
      Bulldust

      Don’t criticise John Quiggan’s lazy arguments and omissions or your post doesn’t get up – good ole ABC mod squad. Leftard thinkers are like gods at The Drum – you must praise them at every turn.

      60

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      Who is John Quiggan?

      And why should we listen to him?

      40

    • #
      Peter C

      Eric Worral says the Greek debt might be due in large part to gaming Kyoto and investing in renewable energy using borrowed euro funds!

      20

      • #
        Bulldust

        Nah the Greek debt is mostly due to inflated early pensions and the like. As I sadi, it’s the end game of the entitlement culture. Communism is the next stop, then everyone gets to be equally miserable (except the hand-picked elite of course).

        00

  • #
    manalive

    Wikipedia’s sneaky question mark “Climatic Optimum?” is a constant cause of irritation.
    As if generations archaeologists historians botanists zoologists geologists climatologists etc. have had it wrong about the climate fluctuations over this interglacial, probably due to the undue influence of the fossil fuel industries, and only in the last twenty years or so the true facts have been exposed by the historical revisionists like Mann et al., viz. that the latest warming cycle is unprecedented.

    81

  • #
    Harry Twinotter

    I am not seeing a point here wrt Anthropogenic Global Warming.

    The lake dried up over a period of 6,000 years.

    “The research, published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences confirms earlier suggestions that the climate change was abrupt, with the southern Sahara drying in just a few hundred years.”

    A few hundred years – that is the definition of abrupt climate change the researchers chose to use. Climate change in the southern Sahara.

    “climate modelers have absolutely no idea what caused it”

    This is a strange comment to make – did “climate modelers” try and figure out what caused it?

    313

    • #
      James Bradley

      Harry,

      “I am not seeing a point here wrt Anthropogenic Global Warming.

      The lake dried up over a period of 6,000 years.”

      That is the point.

      Precedence of abrupt climate change occurring… naturally.

      So, why is it that current climate change is now man made?

      133

      • #
        Harry Twinotter

        James Bradley.

        “So, why is it that current climate change is now man made?”

        I am not really sure how your comment is related to my questions, but I will run with it anyway.

        Not all the current climate change is man made, some of it is natural. But no climate scientist to my knowledge is saying it is all man made.

        11

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      The “settled science” is that the level of CO2 was stable for thousands of year, up until 1850 when humans started releasing CO2 because of the Industrial Revolution.

      From the assumption by them that CO2 controls the temperature it must follow that the Climate must have NOT changed during those thousands of years, hence the attempt to ‘get rid of the medieval warm period’ with the hockey stick.

      The facts that the Earth’s climate has changed many times in that period blows the whole idea of AGW out of the water. That the Sahara was once green has been known for at least 60 years. (Recent excavations show that there were 2 waves of settlement divided by a cool period, which would have led to drier conditions). That there was a warm period (the Minoan) followed by a colder period, followed by the Roman warming, followed by the Dark Ages (when the Bosphorus froze over in winter) followed by the medieval warm time has been ignored by the third rate “scientists” pushing an unlikely and unproven theory.
      They should change the symbol of AGW from the hockey stick to a Norwegian blue parrot.

      112

      • #
        Harry Twinotter

        Graeme,

        The year for pre/post industrial is 1750 I think.

        The term “settled science” is not one the climate scientists use, from my understanding. The term “Settled science” appears to have been created by global warming dissenters, and I do not know what it means.

        Your comment about the Hockey Stick makes no sense at all.

        The fact that climate has changed in the past does not falsify Anthropogenic Global Warming today. To say that it does is simply wrong.

        12

    • #
      Rereke Whakaaro

      Harry,

      I don’t know for sure, because I was not involved, but I would be very surprised if climate modelling was not employed.

      They may not improve your scientific understanding of cause and effect, but they are certainly a good way to attract funding from various sources.

      72

      • #
        Harry Twinotter

        Rereke Whakaaro.

        I have no idea what you are trying to say.

        Did “climate modelers” attempt to model the climatic shifts that dried out the south Safara, and fail? JoNova mentions “climate modelers” but does not give any details.

        12

    • #
      Originalsteve

      Harry…the reference in the article to climate modellers seems to subtly impart a sense of authroity and cred…

      Although considering John Christy shattered the myths…er…*cough* ….. models in the AR4 report ratehr convincingly with just basic observations, it doesnt surprise that climate modellers are clueless….again……

      21

      • #
        Harry Twinotter

        Originalsteve,

        “Harry…the reference in the article to climate modellers seems to subtly impart a sense of authroity and cred…”

        You mean impact authority to JoNova?

        I am not sure how John Christy is relevant to my questions, but I will run with it anyway.

        I have seen John Christy submit material to the US Congress which he claimed falsified some of the review in IPCC reports. But I looked at it and found that he was cherry picking and I found he had also mislead by adjusting the axis in his graph incorrectly. I assume if his submission was peer-reviewed, the errors would have been picked up.

        If he has published similar findings in the peer-reviewed scientific literature, I am not aware of them. But if you have a reference I will read them and let you know what I think.

        12

  • #
    john karajas

    The geological record is replete with examples of former lake settings that became increasingly arid over time and had sediments deposited in desert or salt lake environments. The Canning Basin in Western Australia has the Carribuddy Formation and the Tandalgoo Red Beds, for instance, which were deposited in salt lake playa and desert dune sands environments respectively. Stratigraphers and sedimentologists can list numerous other examples from sedimentary basins around the world. The environmental history of Palaeo Lake Chad is by no means unique.

    100

  • #
    pat

    how a single day – Wednesday 1 July in the UK – may bring back “GLOBAL WARMING”!

    30 June: UK Independent: Michael McCarthy: Nature Studies: Global warming – both the phenomenon and the phrase – is back
    The bookies are already taking bets on the UK’s upcoming heatwave beating our previous absolute temperature record of 38.5C
    The extraordinary heatwave that is about to slam into southern England – Wednesday will probably see temperatures in London of 35C or even 36C (which is 95 to 96.8 degrees in old-fashioned Fahrenheit), according to the Met Office – may well turn people’s thoughts once more to a phrase we have almost stopped using: global warming.Nowadays we almost always call the phenomenon “climate change”. When, 25 years or so ago, we first realised that we were altering the atmosphere to devastating effect by our emissions of industrial gases, it was the dramatic warming expected to follow which focused everyone’s minds; but after a period of clearly rising global air temperatures in the 1980s and 1990s, in the Noughties, for reasons not entirely clear, the rise hit a plateau, where it has more or less remained.
    So climate change, which incorporates other phenomena such as more violent weather events and sea-level rise, rather than just evident heat, has become the preferred term; but “global warming” may be about to come back into vogue…
    This week’s heat, caused by a plume of very hot air moving north from Spain, will be quite exceptional, and if on Wednesday, which is 1 July, it does hit 36C, it will be close to the hottest July day ever seen in Britain – a record set on 19 July, 2006, when the mercury at Charlwood in Surrey hit 36.3C (97.3F). (And it will certainly be the hottest day ever seen at Wimbledon.)
    Before that, the old July record had lasted since 1911, when 36C was reached in Epsom, Surrey. So if we do hit it again on Wednesday, if will be as a hot a July day, barring one, as we have seen for more than a century – and there is always the possibility that the 2006 record itself may be broken.
    If so, minds will no doubt turn to Britain’s absolute temperature record, set on 10 August 2003, when 38.5C, or 101.3F, was reached at Brogdale near Faversham in Kent…
    Even our biggest supercomputers cannot predict the weather accurately more than a few days in advance, and making long-term forecasts is a mug’s game. But the Met Office says more plumes of very hot air from the south are likely, and the signs are that this summer may see temperatures wholly out of the ordinary – at least, as far as what we have always accepted as ordinary…
    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/global-warming–both-the-phenomenon-and-the-phrase–is-back-10355189.html

    11

  • #
    pat

    29 June: Reuters: K. Rajendran: India’s next weapon against climate change? The heat-tolerant dwarf cow
    One issue is cost. A dwarf cow costs almost the same as a larger crossbred – about 20,000 rupees ($300). But a crossbreed cow, when it is healthy, produces much more milk than its dwarf counterpart, making crossbreeds a popular choice among farmers.
    “I am concerned about the commercial aspects,” said K. Ravindran, a farmer from Palakkad. “In order to produce 10 liters of milk, a farmer has to rear at least four Vechur cows instead of one crossbreed.”
    But Basha Balakrishnan, a farmer living in Calicut, argues that customers are willing to pay more for milk from dwarf cows.
    “Though dwarf milk is costlier, many people — especially the rich who live in flats in Calicut — are eager to purchase it because it is thought to be more nutritious than crossbred milk,” she said.
    Balakrishnan’s dwarf cows are even famous. One of her Vechur cows was recently featured in the Guinness Book of World Records as the world’s shortest cow at a height of 61cm (24 inches)…
    “The dwarf cow is a great weapon against climate change,” he (K. Ramankutty, a dairy farmer in Palakkad) said.
    http://news.yahoo.com/indias-next-weapon-against-climate-change-heat-tolerant-103800648.html

    31

  • #
    pat

    26 June: NoTricksZone: Scandal: Wind Energy Law Written Directly By German Wind Lobbyists, Enercon and GE!
    German national daily Bild here reports how in Hannover the new energy law for the state of Lower Saxony was not really written by policymakers elected by the voters, but by the Big Green industry lobbyists themselves.
    The Bild story bears the title: “Companies write the energy law”
    Germany’s number one daily by circulation, Bild, tells of Lower Saxony’s Environment Minister Stefan Wenzel of the Green Party coming under heavy fire from the opposition. The FDP Free Democrats accused Wenzel of having parts of the 79-page draft legislation “dictated to him by the wind industry.” In other words, Bild writes:…
    http://notrickszone.com/2015/05/26/scandal-wind-energy-law-written-directly-by-german-wind-lobbyists-enercon-and-ge/#sthash.WuX4V1xD.GVQESDkc.dpbs

    24 June: Reuters: Julia Fioretti: Google, GE get the most face time when lobbying the EU
    In a report analyzing meetings held by European Commissioners and their staff with companies and organizations over the last six months, Transparency International found that officials held 29 meetings with the U.S. search engine, which is the subject of two high-profile antitrust cases.
    General Electric, which is trying to get EU approval for its bid for Alstom’s power division, had 26 meetings with senior officials, according to the report.
    “GE is a large industrial and technology company with broad interests that impact healthcare, transportation, consumer products, energy, finance and many other industries. We are also actively engaged with the European Commission on our proposed alliance with Alstom,” GE spokesman Seth Martin said in an emailed statement…
    Google spent between 3.5-3.8 million euros ($3.92-4.26 million) in lobbying activities last year, according to the register, while GE has not entered an amount for 2014. In 2013, it spent between 3.25-5.5 million euros…
    Transparency International listed the top 10 organizations by number of meetings, which included environmental campaign groups WWF and Greenpeace.
    Officials working in the fields of climate, energy, finance and digital policy got the most attention from lobbyists, Transparency International’s report said.
    http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/06/24/us-eu-lobbying-idUKKBN0P42HD20150624

    21

  • #
    Farmer Gez

    I’m backing those who put this down to climate variability because that leaves open the possibility that the last twenty years of below average rainfall in our area will change. If I have to rely on a volcano, meteor or other phenomena then we are buggered.

    40

  • #
    warcroft

    Activists o sue Abbot over his ‘climate inaction’.

    Environmentalists in Australia are investigating legal options to challenge the federal government over what they say is inaction on climate change.

    It comes after a landmark ruling in a Dutch court, which ordered the country’s government to slash greenhouse gas emission at a faster rate.

    The victory for Dutch environmental group Urgenda is having global repercussions, with environmental lawyers in Melbourne preparing to launch similar action in Australia.

    http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2015/06/30/environmentalists-consider-legal-challenge-climate-inaction

    20

    • #
      manalive

      Interesting, how under Australian law can anyone in 2015 sue for alleged harm done in 2100?
      They would probably get a good hearing in Duchess Triggs little outfit.
      Maybe the investors in wind farms could sue for damages due to a change in government policy i.e. not continuing to force electricity consumers to subsidise the rent-seekers’ scandalous boondoggle.

      40

    • #
      Matty

      Surely it’s the Climate they should be taking action against, for inaction.
      No Global Warming for 222 months. Must be some kind of record.
      http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/07/02/el-nio-begins-to-curtail-the-pause/

      00

  • #
    James Murphy

    I recall seeing a documentary about the Taklamakan desert and its surrounds, which explained (or tried to) some of the archaeology discovered in the region – such a people being buried in upturned boats, or in boat-styled tombs, and the prevalence of waterways, and very large numbers of poplars. Obviously this is not the case now.

    Humans have been displaced/cities/towns/cultures wiped out, and environments have been changed by changing climate before, but since when did the average AGW zealot ever let facts get in the way of a good story?

    91

  • #
    pat

    WOW! on 26 June on Jo’s “How do we panic about warming…” thread, i posted a Fairfax article:

    25 June: SMH: Heath Aston: Farmers call on Liberals to snuff out internal push by climate sceptic conservatives
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/farmers-call-on-liberals-to-snuff-out-internal-push-by-climate-sceptic-conservatives-20150625-ghxp5s.html

    i prefaced it by saying: “farmers call” or “two farmers call” or “a few farmers call”?
    hard to know as Aston doesn’t see fit to link to the Open Letter and i can’t find it in a quick search online.

    WELL OH WELL – THE FOLLOWING “THE LAND” (FAIRFAX) PIECE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE IN SMH OR THE AGE. IT IS SPREAD OVER 5 PAGES & GIVES PAGE 1 MOSTLY TO REPEATING THE CONTENTS OF THE LETTER. EVEN SOME OF THE COMMENTS (WHICH HAVE TO BE READ OVER 3 PAGES) SEEM TO COME FROM NON-FARMERS, SHALL WE SAY.

    HOW DISHONEST WAS THAT INITIAL FAIRFAX HEADLINE & STORY?

    1 July: The Land: Colin Bettles: Climate spat brewing in Lib ranks
    (Colin Bettles is the national political writer for Fairfax Agricultural Media)
    FURORE has erupted over a letter sent by ***11 farmers, warning the Liberal party against delaying global action on climate change and to further examine scientific evidence.
    But the group’s actions have raised concerns about the potential use of agricultural levies to conduct political lobbying on highly sensitive issues like climate change policy…
    The group’s controversial letter opposed a motion at the Liberal party’s federal council meeting in Melbourne at the weekend, moved by its regional and rural committee, chaired by Western Australian farmer Brian Mayfield…
    ***Ahead of the Liberal conference, a one-page website was established via the World Wildlife Fund’s (WWF) Earth Hour program to help promote the farmers’ letter and highlight concerns about the Liberal party’s motion…
    Mr Mayfield said he was aware a letter had been written by a group of farmers but had not seen it and that the ***WWF had sponsored a website to promote the letter.
    He said there appeared to be a loose affiliation with ***WWF and was concerned that some of the farmers who were party to the letter were also part of the Climate Champion program that’s funded partly by compulsory farmer levies, via their respective research institutions.
    “The Climate Champion program’s website seems to delve into future climate predictions and refers to the United Nations IPCC reports,” he said…
    “We have always had droughts, floods and frosts and always will, and research into adapting to that should be the beginning and end of their charter.” …
    Passionate group of farmers
    ***Earth Hour national manager Anna Rose said the “passionate group of farmers” took the lead on the issue while her organisation helped build the website “cheaply and quickly” on Thursday, before the conference.
    She said the website only cost a few hundred dollars to design and implement but did not involve using any levy funds, despite three of the 11 farmers also being on the managing climate variation Climate Champion program operated through the Grains Research and Development Corporation (GRDC)…
    GRDC’s Martin Blumenthal manages the Climate Champion program and said the participating farmers wore other “hats” at other times but were not entitled to use the program’s official title for political lobbying, given the levy funds also involve matching federal government contributions…
    One of the 11 farmers who sent the letter to the Liberal party – NSW Young Farmers chair Josh Gilbert – said it contained 187 signatures at the time of the conference and 291, as of Monday…
    Another signatory, Victorian dairy farmer Marian Macdonald, said it was good news that the Liberal Party didn’t vote on the motion at the weekend’s conference, instead referring it to a committee, regarding that as a “win”…
    Ms Macdonald said not all farmers are climate change “deniers”.
    NSW dairy farmer Lynne Strong is a Climate Champion participant and also promoted the letter sent to the Liberal conference, saying: “Acknowledging climate change is real is the right thing to do”…
    Any “suspicion” levies are being used for political purposes was “of genuine concern”, Senator Leyonhjelm said…
    A report on the Climate Champions program published in November 2012 said investment in the initiative – that started in 2009 – funds and supports 34 farmers to “take a role in improving communication with other Australian farmers on climate risk management”.
    ***It said the total investment of $1.09 million would produce total gross benefits of $3.14m, providing a net present value of $2.05m…
    “The average annual investment in each champion of about $8000 covers their training, media support, and an honorarium recognising their time input,” it said…
    ***“The program has given high priority to media activity to create awareness of how farmers are taking practical steps to adapt to climate risks.”
    http://www.theland.com.au/news/agriculture/general/weather/climate-spat-brewing-in-lib-ranks/2736475.aspx

    11

  • #
    pat

    ABC seems to be the first & only (for now) MSM outlet to jump on this Reuters’ story (how typical of “their ABC”:

    1 July: ABC: Reuters: Humans first species to become top predator on land and sea, causing unprecedented shifts in world ecosystems
    The study from the University of Leicester shows human power over the natural environment has caused shifts in world ecosystems unprecedented in the last 500 million years.
    The transition has led to the international decline in the variety of plants and animals through extinction, as organisms not useful to human needs are killed off by ecosystem changes or over-exploitation…
    The research was published in the academic journal The Anthropocene Review…
    A new kind of nature
    In the past, volcanic eruptions, complex ecological breakdowns or meteor strikes caused structural changes to the planet, he said.
    In contrast, today’s shifts — including climate change, ocean acidification and the loss of biodiversity have created a “new kind of nature”, he said.
    “Global warming as a phenomenon is just beginning,” (Jan Zalasiewicz, a professor of palaeobiology at the University of Leicester) said….
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-07-01/humans-top-top-predator-on-land-and-sea/6585866

    30 March: WUWT: Anthropocene – ***The New Pop Religion by Guess writer Steve Harris
    An article came out on the AIP Physics Today website about a push from some scientists to formally designate today’s human geological epoch as the “Anthropocene”. Editors of the journal Nature argue that the name “provides a powerful framework for considering global change and how to manage it.”…
    Here is an excerpt, quoted from an article in Nature:
    “Some supporters of the Anthropocene idea have even been likened to zealots. “There’s a similarity to certain religious groups who are extremely keen on their religion—to the extent that they think everybody who doesn’t practise their religion is some kind of barbarian,” says one geologist who asked not to be named.”…
    SCROLL DOWN FOR COMMENT BY: George Devries Klein, PhD, PG, FGSA (March 30 at 6.16am) …WHICH HAS MULTIPLE REFERENCES TO PROFESSOR JAN ZALASIEWICZ.
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/03/30/anthropocene-the-new-pop-religion/

    ***above thread could have been headed The New Pope’s religion!

    Jan 15 WUWT thread “Forgive Us Our Transgressions” by Willis Eschenbach has a comment by Hugh (Jan 17 at 9.26am):
    “The Anthropocene: From Global Change to Planetary Stewardship”
    ***Will Steffen, Åsa Persson, Lisa Deutsch, ***Jan Zalasiewicz, Mark Williams, Katherine Richardson, Carole Crumley, Paul Crutzen, Carl Folke, Line Gordon, Mario Molina, ***Veerabhadran Ramanathan, Johan Rockström, Marten Scheffer, ***Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Uno Svedin

    11

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      Couldnt that be re-written:

      Jan 15 WUWT thread “Forgive Us Our Transgressions Emissions” by Willis Eschenbach has a comment by Hugh (Jan 17 at 9.26am):

      10

  • #
    pat

    warcroft -
    of course our little Aussie CAGW activists would be jumping on the legal bandwagon. a whole new breed of CAGW lawyers will be born:

    30 June: Ecowatch: Stefanie Spear: 15-Year-Old Climate Activist + Robert Redford Address UN on Urgent Need to #ActOnClimate
    Xiuhtezcatl is the youth director of a non profit organization Earth Guardians. He was raised in the Aztec tradition and has been an active campaigner since the age of ***six. Now 15, he was selected to speak at the Opening Ceremony from among 200 applicants through a process facilitated by the UN Non-Governmental Liaison Service.
    Martinez turned heads at the UN meeting calling on delegates to “dream big.” Saying, “It’s time to look to the skies for the solutions we need, because the future of energy is not down a hole.”…
    “Youth are suing their state and federal governments across the United States, demanding action on climate change from our elected officials. We are flooding the streets and now we are flooding the courts to get the world to see there is a movement on the rise and we are at the forefront, fighting for the solutions we need.”…
    As his speech concluded, Xiuhtezcatl asked, “Who will rise with me now for mine and future generations to inherit a healthy just and sustainable planet?” Many of the delegates ***symbolically rose from their seats in support of Xiuhtezcatl.
    Watch here: VIDEO
    http://ecowatch.com/2015/06/30/xiuhtezcatl-robert-redford/

    comments are amusing. watched the latter part of the video to see the “symbolic” rising of “many” or even “any” delegates, but saw nothing.
    nevertheless, the UN delegates are no doubt thrilled to have the unconvincing Xiuhtezcatl on board.

    11

  • #
    Richard111

    Some random thoughts. The disappearance of that lake is too permanent to be a climate event. Would tectonics have anything to do with it?
    Such a slow drying out over thousands of years would have encouraged lush plant growth in the newly exposed lake bed.
    Garden of Eden anyone?

    30

    • #
      KinkyKeith

      Good thought.

      Every year or so when I drive into Canberra I look at the dry lake bed that became dry because:

      1. The bottom has cracks and it leaks.

      2. It is well above sea level.

      30

  • #
    Roy Hogue

    Largest freshwater lake on Earth was reduced to desert dunes in just a few hundred years

    What would you bet that it happened because there were no environmentalists around to save it 6,000 years ago? I guess we need them after all. Otherwise maybe the oceans themselves might dry up and then where would we be? And besides, how else would we get our daily dose of humor? ;-)

    40

    • #
      Rereke Whakaaro

      Ooh … If the Pacific Ocean dried up, we could abseil down the Mariana Trench … awesome!

      20

      • #
        Roy Hogue

        Good morning Rereke,

        At 10,994 m deep (largest known depth, I looked it up) you’re going to do one hell of a rope trick. Wow.

        Maybe better to build an elevator for tourists, no? ;-)

        40

        • #
          Roy Hogue

          Good morning here at least. Late evening for you.

          20

          • #
            KinkyKeith

            It’s now good morning here in Newcastle Roy.

            Bloody freezing despite full winter sun; work that out.

            KK

            00

            • #
              Roy Hogue

              Golly, KK. It must be winter in Newcastle. ;-)

              10

              • #
                KinkyKeith

                Hi Roy

                Was talking to a fellow from Chicago yesterday and he told of his experiences there where every motor car and boat had to be winterised to stop fluid expansion from cracking the engine blocks. Also water pipes etc.

                Luckily we have very moderate winters here.

                KK

                00

  • #
    toorightmate

    Way, way, way off topic, but can one (or some) of you good folks explain to me how the Australian BOM “declares” a cyclone (TC RAQUEL) north east of the Solomon Islands.
    The low is a similar distance from mainland Australia as New Zealand and Jakarta.

    If this is genuinely an Aussie call, we should sell this as a skill and the likes of US, Japan Taipei, China, Vietnam, India, etc could outsource this service to us.

    20

  • #
    Stephen Klaber

    There is another very important factor in Lake Chad’s current shrinking. WEEDS! Aquatic weeds are dessication machines. And the primary result of their photosynthesis becomes silt. The process is known as hydrosere. Wikipedia’s coverage is pretty good. In Lake Chad, the predominate weed is Typha (cattails)but that is being challenged by Phragmites and water hyacinth. If the weeds were harvested their biomass could be made into fuel in several ways. The silt can be made into soil for reversing desertification and erosion.

    10

  • #
    BJ Chippindale

    When will Ms Nova demonstrate the basic journalistic skill of checking sources?

    At the source:

    http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2015/06/23/1417655112

    -we see the word “insolation”. This makes the assertion that “modelers have absolutely no idea what caused it” an indictment of her journalistic competence.

    The relevance to current conditions is nil, apart from the very real likelihood that our step-change input of forcing into the delicately balanced amplifiers and modulators of the climate system, is also apt to cause unexpected and unpredictable local changes.

    Ideologically motivated reasoning is no substitute for good journalism.

    but it sells papers.
    [It is a pity that you found the need to present your views, wrapped in ad hominem remarks. We expect commentators to be polite.] Fly

    23

    • #

      BJ, the change occurred abruptly 5000 years ago: “Lake levels fell rapidly at ∼5 ka, indicating abrupt aridification across the entire Lake Mega-Chad Basin.” The association with insolation was hardly simple and predictable: “indicating that the African monsoon exhibits a nonlinear response to insolation forcing. ”

      So just let me know which climate model can hindcast that with “solar insolation”.

      It may matter today if models that are used to predict much smaller changes than this dramatic one, do not include the factors that drove this event. How do we know that the forces are not operating today?

      Even so, my main point stands — there have been major climate transformations without CO2. The climate modelers need to be honest about them.

      32

      • #
        Harry Twinotter

        JoNova,

        I am still puzzled by your reference to climate modelers. Where is the evidence that climate modelers have not been honest about past climate changes?

        You refer to “major climate transformations”, well yes but the authors are only referring to one region on the globe. The way I read the study is the authors are not saying the monsoon stopped, it just shifted so areas that were receiving the monsoon rains stopped receiving it and dried out.

        Global circulation changes caused by small changes in insolation is an area of research, Professor Mike Lockwood and others have been doing work in this area for example.

        11

    • #
      KinkyKeith

      AHHHHH Models

      By definition climate MODELS are not models.

      Those who have training or practical, real world expertise in modelling know straight up that the so called “Climate Models” are not Models.

      Every time I hear the word Model I cringe, because it reminds me of the true purpose of present day models which is to muddy the waters and overpower sensible analysis.

      Powerful computers are not necessary to have good model, at least to start with.

      If the basics are correct and meaningful they are probably also simple.

      By definition, a model has certain requirements that must be met:

      First a model has one or more input factors which are variable (eg atmospheric CO2 level)

      and when this variable changes the model must register changes in another factor (eg

      atmospheric temperature) which shows conclusively that the two factors, input and output,

      are linked and is confirmed by MEASUREMENT of the factors.

      The most important requirement of any Model however is that it must duplicate reality.

      By definition a model successfully duplicates reality in some range of operation and allows extension, and

      prediction, outside the measured limits used to verify the model.

      A model which does not duplicate reality of the link between causal factor and effect is by definition NOT A MODEL.

      Global Climate models have NEVER duplicated reality in any way and by definition cannot be claimed to be

      models.”

      The point is that a model can only exist if the relationship can be demonstrated experimentally.

      From a theoretical point of view there can be no measurable link between CO2 levels and Temperature of the atm because other factors swamp that tiny effect.

      A model cannot be constructed to link the two factors.

      An exploratory computer simulation, as all Climate Models are, is NOT a model because it does not function.

      All models must be based on a known and measurable relationship between factors.

      KK

      11