JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


Handbooks

The Skeptics Handbook

Think it has been debunked? See here.

The Skeptics Handbook II

Climate Money Paper


Advertising

micropace


GoldNerds

The nerds have the numbers on precious metals investments on the ASX



Archives

Weekend Unthreaded…

More wandering thoughts

VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
Rating: 7.5/10 (44 votes cast)
Weekend Unthreaded..., 7.5 out of 10 based on 44 ratings

Tiny Url for this post: http://tinyurl.com/m3fwo4m

169 comments to Weekend Unthreaded…

  • #
    Joe V.

    Belgium was already importing up to 1/3rd of its Electric Power on Friday, as demand hit 10GW and it could only supply about 3/4 of that from its own stretched capacity, with 3 of its 1GW reactors still out of commission, while wind tumbled from providing 1GW to nothing through the day.

    http://mobile.elia.be/en/Data

    Companies are already considering their options for hosting critical IT infrastructures from servers outside the country this winter.

    140

    • #
      ianl8888

      Well, well …

      Sad that the Belgium populace is at risk due to the unelected bureaucrats in Brussels

      Over the NH winter we will observe the empirical results of the Brussels experiment in base load supply

      130

  • #
    Peter C

    The Mysterious Alchemy of Black Bodies

    1. Black Bodies, so we are told, absorb all the radiation energy which is incident apon them.
    2. Black Bodies radiate with a Planck spectrum, which is unique for each temperature. The higher the temperature the more the high amplitude part of the curve is shifted toward the high frequencies.
    http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/wien.html
    3. Black bodies do not store energy.

    A consequence of the attributes of a black body, as given above is that a black body can transform low temperature radiation into high temperature radiation. If a Black Body is receiving energy from two low temperature radiation sources it will sum or integrate the energies (this follows from axiom 1. above).
    The energy absorbed is given by the area under the Planck curve. Normally to find the sum of two functions one simply adds the y values for each point on the curve to obtain the value of the new function. If the two functions are identical, the y value at each point is twice the value of the initial function(s) and the area under the new curve is twice the value of the each initial curve.

    Supposing we try this with a Black Body. The Black Body is exposed to radiation from two low temperature sources. The energy absorbed by the Black Body is given by the area under each curve (Q). The energy emitted by the Black Body is the same as the energy received (axiom 3). However the output of the Black Body is not the sum of the y values of each curve, because that is not a Planck function. The correct Planck function for the higher energy output is a curve for a higher temperature. The temperature for a given energy output is given by the Stefan-Boltzman equation (Q=sT^4). Therefore a Black Body can absorb energy from two or more low temperature sources and output a higher temperature.
    It is an implicit assumption of the Greenhouse theory that the Earth’s surface behaves like a Black Body. However I do not know of any empirical observations nor experimental evidence that says that this can happen for any real world object or material. Indeed Voldemort’s Law (thanks Memory Vault) says heat won’t go from a cooler to a hotter.

    141

    • #
      Roy Hogue

      In the current political and racial climate in America a reference to “Black Bodies” could easily excite a race riot or an attack on the character of the commenter. ;-)

      I’m sure the news about the shootings and riots in MIssouri has reached Oz, so no offense intended. All in good fun. But to their shame there’s no real grip on reality by those now rioting. None at all. :-(

      If you pray, pray for my country. She is hurting.

      141

      • #
        rah

        Only if you shoot them no matter what they are doing and even if they are shooting at you! It is a sad and sick situation. No way in hell I would want to be a cop.

        70

      • #
        James Bradley

        Roy,

        America as in Australia, members of minorities are over represented in the court system because the members of minorities represent the proportion of crimes they commit.

        They have learned that left wing government will always give voice to their accusations against authority of discrimination, racism and harassment because it legitimises the socialist agenda against democracy and freedom of speach.

        It’s a little trick learned from the enthusiastic followers of Islam – denounce opposition vigourously, cry discrimination then attack opposition furiously until citizens are too scared to ask question, they are enthusiatically supported in this cause by left wing socialist government because there is not a lot of difference in their basic philosophies as left wing socialist governments tend to deal with dissent in the same manner to gain support from the ‘down trodden minorities’ through fear or favour.

        It may turn out to be a somewhat self defeating tactic because I can’t see Islam accepting the traditional left wing socialist values of welfare, gay rights or secularism – so the left wing socialist academics that extol the virtues of a peaceful and loving Islam may be the first to have reason for regret.

        231

        • #
          Rereke Whakaaro

          Ask the Chechens how tolerant Moscow was in regard to Islam. There was more than one plan for genocide, I believe?

          130

          • #
            James Bradley

            Oh yeah, thoooose Russians…

            50

          • #
            James Bradley

            Rereke,

            The old USSR weren’t too interested in garnering votes from minorities so the main focus was on eradicating any form of dissent, including Chechen Muslims who represented the same danger to the USSR then as it represents to any other non-islamic government today.

            40

          • #
            Ceetee

            Russia is a realpolitik conundrum and democracy is a complication that the USSR never had to contend with. That said I believe the Russian problems in dealing with this issue are the same as ours. Religious fundamentalism is a real problem for all of us. Fervour can’t be swayed by reason and dangerous fervour can only be countered with force. Stunned at the people who believe we should turn our backs on Syria/Iraq. Really glad there weren’t too many of them around in 1939.

            41

            • #
              James Murphy

              Far too often I’m left with almost equal parts of disbelief, disgust, shame, and anger when reading the comments by people on ‘our ABC’ about this situation. If these pathetic individuals are anything to go by, it seems that the existence of IS/ISIS/Daesh is entirely the fault of Blair/Howard/Bush, and that any action taken now is ‘another invasion of Iraq by Abbott the warmonger’, and that Australia should do nothing at all about it.

              Not surprisingly, they rapidly descend into near-incoherency when it’s pointed out that Labor supported military action, the 1st time, and now.

              In fact, it seems that some of the less mentally stable commenters (and sadly, also the most frequent) are almost gleefully looking forward to more deaths, just so they can say “look at what John Howard did”. Then, of course, there are the people who say that Saddam Hussein was a good leader, because groups like Daesh didn’t cause trouble under his rule…

              Seriously, what is wrong with the world when the actions of any sort of violent and totalitarian regime are excused and exonerated just because the government is of a political persuasion which is at odds with personal political beliefs?

              90

              • #
                Cookster

                Totally agree James. But now the Left have their man in the White house they are being exposed as hypocrites. With Obama supporting the overthrow of Gaddafi in Libya and now military action against the brutal Islamic State in Iraq and Syria the Left’s irrational opposition to brutal regimes doing as they please is exposed.

                But I also feel we in the West are fortunate Russia has similar motivation to discourage religious fundamentalism as we do. With Putin’s action in Crimea and Ukraine together with the shooting down of flight MH17 we aren’t far away from a reigniting of the cold war. Even without Chechnya Russia is not immune to Islamic terrorism and that might just be a good thing for the sake of global security.

                Also, while on the subject of Russia, with their economic reliance on exports of Oil and Gas to Europe I am not sure they are great fans of the global warming fad as we are in the West?

                40

      • #
        Roy Hogue

        I appreciate all the thoughtful commentary and I don’t want to be anyone’s critic. But with that said, Muslims and every other group, black, homosexual, religious fundamentalist and many others — organize them any way you want to — are all part of this world and they won’t go away just because we fear them, embrace them, suppress them or give them preferential treatment over others. Least of all will they go away just because we wish they would. And to continue in the current mode, laying blame, pointing fingers and killing each other is suicidal in the end.

        Our job — and it’s no easy one — is to begin to find ways to trust each other and each allow the other some space on this earth free of attack, verbal or physical. Otherwise the course of human history looks all downhill. And the faster and more widespread our easy communication becomes, the worse it gets.

        I remember what Ronald Reagan told Secretary Gorbachev when they met. I have to paraphrase because I no longer remember the exact words. He said, “We don’t distrust each other because we’re armed. We’re armed because we don’t trust each other. We need to find ways to begin to build the necessary trust.” He thereby signaled his desire to have a better relationship with the Soviet Union, one not based on mutual fear but on mutual respect. To be complete, he then went on to say that if the arms race were to continue he would have no choice but to keep the United States militarily superior to anything Gorbachev could hope to achieve, thus providing some incentive for Gorbachev to think about what he was offering.

        The Soviet Union eventually fell and some conservatives credit Reagan with singlehandedly accomplishing that. But I have a quite different take on it. Had Gorbachev not continued his perestroika (part of glasnost) I don’t know what the outcome would have been. Certainly Reagan gave the Soviet Union a hard push. But I think had it been internally sound it could have withstood Reagan. I think the plain truth is that Reagan helped its downfall along quite a lot. But the ultimate collapse began with years of pent up hatred for the Soviet Government and the thing finally came apart from its own dead weight when internal discipline enforced by the government was relaxed under Gorbachev.

        This kind of approach is our only real hope of dealing with the many problems we face. I find it interesting that Reagan’s unofficial biographer, Michael Deaver**, said in his book, A DIFFERENT DRUMMER, that Reagan never made his adversary into an enemy. That’s a good place for all of us to start. You have no chance to deal with someone if you don’t have his ear so he’ll listen. And you don’t have the ear of someone you make your enemy.

        ISIS, after all is said and done and whether justly or unjustly, is fighting a very old grudge. They will be very hard to deal with and perhaps there will be another all out war. I don’t know. But the solution can’t start until we recognize what’s really going on. The same can be said about every other trouble spot in the world — the other guy has a point of view that to him is legitimate. The one thing I thought helpful in Obama’s first election campaign was his stated willingness to talk to anyone — at best you learn something useful in solving the problem and at worst you don’t but neither are you required to give away the farm. It’s too bad he didn’t have the wisdom to follow through.

        As was stated above, I too would not like to be a cop. Neither would I like to be a black man stopped repeatedly driving through his very own neighborhood for no better reason than a black man was suspicious in that neighborhood. And I have this story told to me directly by two of the best managers of software development I’ve ever seen, both black. So I know it happens.

        40

        • #
          Roy Hogue

          ** Deaver was the one person who spent more time in close working and personal relationship with Reagan than anyone else except Nancy Reagan. He was the most trusted advisor Reagan had since beginning his first term as governor of California until the beginning of his second term as president. Deaver is probably the only one in the world with even close to as much insight into our 40th president as Nancy.

          20

        • #
          Cookster

          Good comments Roy – especially in regard for all people to learn to trust each other. However, in relation to the fall of the Soviet Union I worry if Russians have forgotten about their pent up hatred for the former Soviet Government? It is now 23 years since the fall of the USSR so many young voting Russians weren’t even born then. As a democratically elected leader Putin’s actions in meddling in Ukraine including alleged Russian involvement in shooting down of flight MH17 suggest he is acting out of populist Russian support. What other motivation would he have as the official reasons Russia has put forth for what has occurred in Crimea and now Eastern Ukraine do not stack up. The only Russian point of view I can think of to support this apparent Russian imperialist action is many Russians long for the days of the USSR? I certainly agree we all need to trust each other more and have greater empathy for other people’s views but fear it is still a utopian dream. Bad people will still try to do bad things no matter what our good intentions might be. Nobody with any sense of humanity can make a case for what ISIS has been doing.

          30

          • #
            Graeme No.3

            Certainly some nostalgia for when they were one of the BIG TWO, but

            The Crimea was annexed by Russia in 1783 (It had been part of the Rus Empire in medieval times). It became part of The Ukraine in 1954 as a political favour by Khrushchev in return for support. Note that the support in the 1991 referendum about joining the Ukraine was fairly narrow, at a time when things were dire in Russia. The recent one was overwhelmingly in favour of Russia, and not all that was ‘stacking the vote’ but the experience of 20 years of Ukrainian control.

            There is also the modern problem of a lot of russian oil and gas pipelines to Europe pass through The Ukraine, and there have been disputes for years about payments, supply, diversions. Partly the reason Russia (and Germany) built the Nord Stream pipeline (actually double) in the Baltic sea.

            Putin can also point out the double standards of the West in that the elected (thuggish, corrupt) President of The Ukraine was deposed by a coup and replaced by a (thuggish, corrupt) group of politicians whom many Ukrainians didn’t want.

            Another reason is that the Russians believe the climate is getting colder, which will lead to agricultural problems. The flat lands of The Ukraine were ‘the breadbasket of Russia’ during the cooler times 1950-1980.

            50

          • #
            Roy Hogue

            Cookster, Graeme No.3,

            As I’m seeing right here in the U.S., a lot can be traced back to not teaching the young as they grow up, what their history is all about, both the bad and the good. This goes for Russia too I expect. Indoctrination is no substitute for understanding. And jumping to conclusions is like Russian roulette (no pun intended).

            It might also be that Putin doesn’t represent as wide a segment of the Russian population as we think and is simply acting on his own rather obvious desire to return to the authoritarian rule and the grandeur of the old Soviet Union.

            In either case, I have no good answer to the question of Ukraine. And it bothers me that we have so many who think we have some compelling national interest there when it seems clear that we don’t.

            ISIS — Iraq and Syria are the most immediate problem and some “military experts” say it’s not a real threat to the U.S. and some say it is. And as I said, the job will not be an easy one either way because we’re bound to get even more entangled in the mess. So I wish first and foremost for leaders who understand the situation. But the only person up to now who shows me that he has a firm grip on it is the very controversial Glenn Beck, who isn’t presidential or even congressional material even if he was willing.

            One problem the United States has always had is almost complete failure to prioritize our foreign interests realistically. And we’re rapidly running out of ability to be all things to all people if we haven’t already reached the end. And in the case of Ukraine I’m doubtful that the history leading up to now is well enough understood to allow us to have a position. I know I don’t know it well enough.

            20

        • #
          Peter Carabot

          Very noble aspiration. Unfortunately, for all of humanity, there is always somebody that wants power and is prepared to slaughter anybody that stands in his way. Libya was a wonderfull, peacefull, rich country, before Ghaddafy (the dog), muslim, jews and christians used to live togheter very armoniously. We used to go to each others schools, functions and the like. One day Nasser in Egypt started to foment the extreme minority of arabs, eventually Ghaddafy (the dog) assumed power from jail….. (car thief) and the rot started. Look at that country now, totally rotted!! Unddr the King, the arab population had everything they could possibly want for free, houses, doctors, dentist, food etc. Now they starve and have been since the overtrow of King Idris.
          The human factor is always what stuffs up good ideas!

          21

          • #
            Roy Hogue

            Unfortunately, for all of humanity, there is always somebody that wants power and is prepared to slaughter anybody that stands in his way.

            And we need to be ready to deal with them while they’re too small to be a lot of trouble. Otherwise we get what we have today.

            I’m well aware that it won’t be easy. But consider how much death could have been avoided by dealing with Syria and ISIS when they were first causing trouble. Consider how much easier it would have been to deal with them then than it will be now. Consider what might have been accomplished if the United States had not supported the dictator in Egypt for so long.

            No solution will be perfect but not trying will be even worse.

            00

        • #
          Lawrie Ayres

          That’s just the problem Roy. I can get along with just about anybody in an one on one situation. the problem arises when we start lumping people together based on race, religion or whatever. If I disagree with a policy that is being racist yet I might agree with with others of that race. If I say treat everyone the same I am told some need better treatment than others. It occurs to me that I would be called a conspiracy freak if I say the left are being very successful at confusing the issues and preventing open debate. While they may not all drink at the same coffee shop they all seem to have the same ideas and of course they do attend the same “festivals of Ideas” where they all agree with one another. Part of the problem is the lefts control of the media and maybe that is why the conservative blogs are so popular; they give voice to a silenced majority.

          00

          • #
            Roy Hogue

            It occurs to me that I would be called a conspiracy freak if I say the left are being very successful at confusing the issues and preventing open debate.

            All the things you mention are problems. I’m perfectly willing to let Muslims live in the U.S. and practice their religion. But I’m not willing to let them have their own separate set of laws instead of the laws the rest of us live by. Yet many Muslims do live by the laws of the United States. We need to find a way to let those who don’t want to do that live someplace where they can, at least up to the point of brutality instead of punishment for an offense. We need to give them an incentive to stop believing it’s Islam’s destiny to rule the world.

            We began the process of reconciliation between two historical enemies in Iraq under George Bush and it was beginning to work. Then Barack Obama threw it all away without even a second thought. Is it any wonder that they’re at each other’s throat again?

            What I think we need is a journey not a destination. We may never arrive. But I’m convinced that we can do better than we’re doing. That’s all I’m saying.

            10

    • #
      NielsZoo

      The part that drives me nuts is all the Climateers (and some skeptics that should know better) keep treating gases at 1 atmosphere as if BB radiation curves are even remotely valid for them… they aren’t. Low pressure gases, even when they actually have more energy than their surroundings, are line emitters… and really inefficient ones at that. The Warmistas use Stefan-Boltzmann energy equations for CO2′s fictional “back radiation” in the atmosphere and radically overstate the amount of make-believe emitted energy because they seem to think the blessed gas CO2 has an emissivity of 1.

      141

      • #
        James McCown

        Niels that agrees with what I heard long ago. Most solids and liguids approximately a blackbody fairly well. Most gases don’t.

        41

    • #

      Peter,
      A black-body (theoretical) must absorb radiation directed toward. The fantasy is the post modern, emission depends only on the temperature of the emitter. This is a direct contradiction of Maxwell’s equations. Thermal EMR flux is never “spontaneously” emitted in a direction of higher temperature. Such would be a violation of 2LTD. Spontaneously does not include your microwave oven adding energy to colder water. Details matter.

      51

      • #
        Tel

        It’s a simplifying assumption of course. Temperature is by definition a statistical property and we presume the black body is internally perfectly conductive so that the energy must spread evenly. This is the thing that allows all the little bits of energy distributed amongst the object to be represented by a single temperature value.

        Suffice to say, a planet is nothing like this, one small patch of a planet surface can be much hotter than other patches.

        50

    • #
      Konrad

      “However I do not know of any empirical observations nor experimental evidence that says that this can happen for any real world object or material.”

      Peter,
      There is clear evidence that the oceans covering 71% of the planet’s surface cannot be treated anywhere near a blackbody. It is instead a “selective surface”.

      At WUWT, Bob Irvine presents a paper based in part on one of my earlier experiments -
      http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/10/11/a-comparison-of-the-efficacy-of-greenhouse-gas-forcing-and-solar-forcing/#comment-1760026
      - (my response there including further experiments is still in moderation.)

      The foundation of the entire AGW hypothesis depends on the surface being a near blackbody, having an equilibrium temperature of 255K without atmosphere. This is supposedly raised 33K by an imaginary radiative GHE. Given the selective surface properties of water, that 255K would be closer to 312K. This means that our radiative atmosphere is actually working to reduce surface temperatures.

      Climastrologists provably went and applied standard SB equations to a SW transparent material that evaporatively cools and has emissivity asymmetric with absorptivity. The 255K assumption is locked into every climate model. It is the very foundation of the hoax. The climastrologists can never hide their shame.

      111

    • #
      Leo Morgan

      Peter C, your ‘disproof’ of the properties of a black body does not work in this universe, sorry.
      I’ll explain why in just a moment. *
      But first, for any casual visitors to sceptical blogs, please understand that the blog owners permit comments that demonstrate a misunderstanding of science, in order that all viewpoints may be heard. It does not mean the blog owner doesn’t understand the science.
      In fact, Jo on this blog, and Anthony Watts on his, have already written posts that explain why the theories endorsed by the ‘Sky Slayers’ are wrong.
      When blog owners censor that which they regard as ‘wrong’, visitors to the blog will never learn anything more than the blog owners pre-existing beliefs, knowledge and errors if any. Even in the improbable situation they are 100 percent right, you cannot know they are right, because alternative views and theories have not been considered. This is the flaw that kept the activist climate science blogs from being aware of the errors in their forecasts. Now they admit the ‘long tale’ of climate sensitivity emissions is non physical.** Now they admit ‘the pause’ exists.*** They were a decade late with each of these realisations because they would not consider non-consensus viewpoints. That’s why their extremist forecasts have failed to come true. Al Gore forecast the North Pole would melt by 2010. UNEP forecast there would be 50 to 200 million Climate refugees by the same date.
      That’s why Jo permits even ‘obviously wrong’ comments. She’s already responded in a blog article explaining why the ‘Sky slayers’ are mistaken. Now it’s up to the readership to point out errors. Jo’s role is to keep the discussion open. (Okay, she has many, many more roles, including ringmaster, researcher, reporter etc.)

      * To see your mistake, consider a physical analogy of your argument. Set a bar heater to shine on a kilo of iron. (The obvious difference between this situation and the one you described, that the bar of iron stores heat, is overcome by running the experiment long enough to fill the store of heat. This makes it a valid real-world example.) Now add a second bar heater. The block of iron will never be hotter than the surface of the hottest bar heater. Likewise, the heat radiated from the iron in any direction will never be hotter than the heat radiated onto its surface from the hottest radiator. The reasons why this is true are the same reasons why it is true for a black hole. Your form of logic is “1)If A then B, 2) Not B, 3) Therefore, not A.” This is a logically valid form of argument, and if your premises were true, then your conclusion would also be true. But your premise is not true. You may fairly ask, “Exactly which premise is (said by Leo to be) false?” It’s the many premises implied by your fuzzily worded last paragraph. Start with this one:
      Therefore a Black Body can absorb energy from two or more low temperature sources and output a higher temperature. Higher temperature than what? A black body, or a block of iron, with two bar radiators shining on it, will emit a higher temperature than a black body or bar of iron with one bar radiator shining on it. In neither case will they be hotter than the hottest source shining upon it. Once you specify what your comparative ‘hotter than (What)’ is compared to, your error is exposed.
      Likewise Indeed Voldemort’s Law (thanks Memory Vault) says heat won’t go from a cooler to a hotter.
      A hotter what? Heat will go from 35 degree air to your hotter 37 degree body. You’ll sweat and swelter from that extra heat. Some heat will always go from a colder item to a hotter item, even though the net effect will always be the other way.
      ** IE, they were wrong. Their mistake was in allowing for improbably high climate sensitivities. It’s like deciding the chance of a coin coming up heads is only 25 precent, because you have to allow for all the unlikely scenarios too, like it landing on its side, or a bird flying into the room and plucking it out of the air. As always, their mistake was on the side of alarm. They were wrong with that as with hundreds of other falsified forecasts for exactly that reason.
      *** If you are a casual visitor, ‘the pause’ refers to the fact that the lower tropospheric temperature has not warmed in the last 18 plus years according to satellite measurements. IE There’s been no Global Warming during all the years you’ve ben paying carbon taxes, solar subsidies, renewables costs, and the bureaucracies to administer those schemes, despite the fact believers and sceptics alike agree these will do nothing to stop Global Warming

      80

      • #
        Peter C

        Thanks Leo,

        I was hoping for a dissenting opinion.

        I put my argument because I am trying to undermine or even dispel the idea that the Greenhouse Effect is a Scientific Fact. In my view it is a Theory. As a theory it can be examined, tested, and dispelled if it fails.

        I have read through your reply. You canvass too many aspects. Lets just cut to the chase.

        your ‘disproof’ of the properties of a black body does not work in this universe, sorry.

        I have not disproved the properties of a Black Body. I stated the properties of a Black Body (as I understand them) and derived an argument about the Greenhouse theory, which I contend indicates that the Greenhouse theory is incorrect,

        I said

        However I do not know of any empirical observations nor experimental evidence that says that this can happen for any real world object or material

        You contend that a Bar of Iron is a real world example of a Black Body. I agree as far as emission is concerned. But not absorbtion!

        According to my analysis the Black Body gets hotter than either of the two identical radiative inputs.

        You say that the iron bar will be hotter if irradiated by two heat lamps than only one.

        To quote you if full here:

        * To see your mistake, consider a physical analogy of your argument. Set a bar heater to shine on a kilo of iron. (The obvious difference between this situation and the one you described, that the bar of iron stores heat, is overcome by running the experiment long enough to fill the store of heat. This makes it a valid real-world example.) Now add a second bar heater. The block of iron will never be hotter than the surface of the hottest bar heater. Likewise, the heat radiated from the iron in any direction will never be hotter than the heat radiated onto its surface from the hottest radiator.

        There is a clear difference here.

        Either the bar gets hotter that the inputs or it does not! I say that a (theoretical) Black Body gets hotter than the inputs. I also say that a Black Body does not exist in Nature (real world).

        You say that an Iron bar does not get hotter than the inputs.

        I agree.

        Therefore (in my opinion) it is not a Real World Black Body.

        20

        • #
          Leo Morgan

          Peter C. in the light of such a gracious response it feels churlish of me to demur. If our debate were just between you and me, I’d take it no further. But we are discussing in view of visitors to Jo’s blog, not just between ourselves.
          And I’m sorry, but you’re mistaken.
          By ‘inputs’, you must decide if you mean ‘the bar on the heater that emits the energy’(Meaning 1), or ‘the fraction of the energy from that bar that goes into the black body (or other object.)’(Meaning 2) The answer is different depending on which one you mean.
          Stand in front of a two bar electric radiator. Turn both bars on. The energy your leg receives from both bars, and therefore the temperature it’s raised to, is more than the energy (and consequent temperature) from the radiation received from either bar alone. ‘Input’(Meaning 2), the radiation that strikes and therefore warms the black_body/iron_bar/Your_leg, the temperature of the two is higher than the temperature of either alone. That’s why we turn both heater bars on when we’re cold.
          If instead by the word ‘input’ you mean the heater bar, then the answer is different. The radiation from both heater bars, or a hundred of them, will never raise the temperature of the thing it shines upon: black_body/iron_bar/your_leg hotter than the temperature of the hottest bar on the radiator.
          Replace ‘black_body/iron_bar/your_leg’ with ‘thermometer’. The radiation from two bars still raises the temperature more than the radiation from either bar alone. The same is true with black bodies, for the same reasons, despite your mistaken assertion to the contrary.
          To clarify: An iron bar does not get hotter than the inputs (Meaning 1). An iron bar DOES get hotter than the inputs (meaning 2).
          Tel’s comment explains WHY the two different meanings give two different answers.
          To further quibble, what we think are facts are as subject to examination, testing and disproof as any theory is. Our initial ‘facts’ about the speed of light, the size of the universe, and the shape of the earth have all turned out to be as mistaken as the phlogiston theory.
          The Greenhouse theory is badly named. Greenhouses warm their interiors in a very different fashion than the way the so-called Greenhouse Effect warms the atmosphere. It only works as a metaphor for the warming, but NOT as an analogy.
          The relevance of black bodies to the Greenhouse Effect is limited. It’s the idealised case of radiative energy transfer, energy in equals energy out.
          Nature is more complicated of course. There’s energy originally in the system, plus energy retained in the system, energy originally being radiated, the different forms of energy transfer convection as well as conduction, momentum transfers, radiative quantisation. But for all of that it’s a surprisingly close, and surprisingly useful approximation. But it is NOT the Greenhouse Effect.
          The Greenhouse Effect is where the particular shape of some molecules, (such as CO2) causes the molecule to absorb photons of particular wavelengths. The energy of the photon is either turned into momentum, with faster moving air being hotter air, of course, or the energy is immediately released again as another photon of the same wavelength, aimed in a random direction- half the time headed back where it came from. Given that CO2′s absorbed wavelengths are mostly thermal wavelengths (infra-red), this re-radiation back to where the photon came from, warms the planet. You will notice that the term ‘black body’ does not appear anywhere in this description.
          Lord Christopher Monkton recently asserted that this happens but not to the exact degree previously calculated. I have not mastered all his arguments yet. But the sceptic Lord and the most ardent of the Climate Faithful agree that that’s what we mean by the phrase ‘Greenhouse Effect’.
          And the point of all this is that even if you had succeeded in proving a flaw in the theories about black body radiation, you would not have poked a hole in the theory of the Greenhouse Effect at all.
          For what it’s worth, you may ask about my own scepticism. I call myself a lukewarmer. I don’t believe the multiplier effects assumed by the activists are scientifically validated. I think groupthink and noble cause corruption have distorted the historical record, and permitted shoddy science to be taken as scientific fact. (See climateaudit’s lists of data series misused upside down, and other hilarious non-science by the team for reasons to think this.) I know warmer epochs are geologically climate optimums, and I know that people deprived of cheap energy are far worse off than people living in warmer regions. I know the majority of forecasts of doom have already been disproven.
          Thanks for the discussion.

          21

    • #
      Tel

      Supposing we try this with a Black Body. The Black Body is exposed to radiation from two low temperature sources. The energy absorbed by the Black Body is given by the area under each curve (Q). The energy emitted by the Black Body is the same as the energy received (axiom 3). However the output of the Black Body is not the sum of the y values of each curve, because that is not a Planck function.

      I’ve often wondered about this one, and when you say it in words it sounds like it should work. However, try drawing the geometry and you find that if the two low-temperature sources radiate out in all directions, there’s no way to get all the radiation focussed onto the single black body target (which itself radiates in all directions). You could try arranging parabolic mirrors but this would also focus the back-radiation from the middle black body so they others would not be able to cool down… at best you end up with all objects at the same temperature.

      40

      • #
        Peter C

        Thank Tel,

        See my reply to Leo,

        Is a Black Body (for absorbtion) just a theoretical concept? Can it be applied in the real world?

        30

        • #
          tom0mason

          Is a gas a surface as required by Planc in the application of SB.

          Is water a surface? As a solid yes, but as a liquid? Or as a liquid transforming to a vapor? Or when water is at it’s triple point when it could be in any state?

          40

          • #
            NielsZoo

            Gases are in no way, shape, matter or form to be confused with black bodies, especially at the extremely low pressures found in our atmosphere. They absorb and emit energy in very discrete lines. Look at neon lamps and gas lasers. One changes the output colors by changing the mix of gases. If gas could act as a black body emitter (or absorber) all those lamps and lasers would have spectral outputs of “white” light that followed black body curves. That does not happen in the real world until you get temperatures and pressures found in stars… and even then you will have spikes in output at each element’s fundamental wavelengths. A black body is a theoretical construct that does not exist in Nature but is mathematically useful for describing absorption and emission of energy from solid bodies. (I’ve never looked at how liquids fair in the BB realm but I’d guess they act a bit more like gases as the atoms can roam around at will.)

            30

            • #
              tom0mason

              NielsZoo

              Thank-you, you are exactly on my wavelength :( and as you state so well this is the flaw in the warmist argument. And as I allude to, that wonderous water is not bound by the BB radiation theory, and unfortunately for the warmist it is a large part of this planet’s surface, and some of it’s atmosphere.

              30

        • #
          Leo Morgan

          Hi Peter,
          a perfect black body is like a perfect circle, not found in reality, but we come close enough for all practical purposes.

          00

    • #
      Geoff Sherrington

      Peter C,
      The way you express this is counterintuitive, suggesting heat flow from a lower temperature body to a higher one, 2 nd Law of thermo violated.
      I’m not sure what you are suggesting. A black body does not know if one or
      two sources of heat are acting on it. It has no mechanism to sum according to an equation.
      There is widespread abuse of the notion of a black body emitter and there is a lazy attitude by many invoking S-B. This field of physics has many subtle concepts that are commonly trodden on by size 10 boots. In particular, one has to carefully use terms like temperature, heat, heat energy, heat flow, work etc.
      But I’m generalising while thinking what you are driving at. Care to elaborate?
      Geoff.

      20

    • #
      Alex

      You’re looking at it from some philosophical point of view and disregarding things like the environment and specific heat of the blackbody.
      You need to look at it from an engineers point of view, taking all parameters into account ie draw a picture first and enter all dimensions. Otherwise it’s just devils dancing on the head of a pin stuff.

      10

    • #

      Peter C
      Two Lamps are next to each other. One is a 1 Watt lamp. One is a five watt lamp. The five watt lamp is swictched on and off for alternate seconds. It has a higher average power than the permanently on 1 watt lamp yet the 1 watt lamp heats it every other second. Now increase the flash rate to a pass band of CO2.

      Please try to disprove this without contradicting you uncited point 3 (Which needs a black body to have no mass).

      10

    • #
      Peter C

      Thanks to everyone who either read my post or read it and replied.

      It was a bit of a pity that the subject was hijacked at the start and diverted to race relations. I was hoping the conversation would remain scientific,

      I have read all the replies and there is quite a lot there for analysis.

      I am not a physicist. I have nothing more to contribute at present other that what I have written.

      Leo says I am wrong. OK. Maybe there is a mistake there somewhere. Everyone can read the thread and decide for themselves. I don’t mind disturbing the readers with controversial ideas.

      I should give credit to Ross McLeod who sent me his ideas about summation of functions and the apparent paradox of Black Bodies.

      00

  • #
    Graeme No.3

    Vesuvius has erupted many times and is the only volcano on the European mainland to have erupted within the last hundred years.
    There were numerous eruptions in prehistory including 3 bigger than in AD79, and since that famous eruption others in 172, 203, 222, possibly 303, 379, 472, 512, 536, 685, 787, around 860, around 900, 968, 991, 999, 1006, 1037, 1049, around 1073, 1139, 1150, and there may have been eruptions in 1270, 1347, and 1500. The volcano erupted again in 1631, six times in the 18th century esp. 1794, eight times in the 19th century (notably in 1822, 1834 and 1872), and in 1906, 1929, and 1944. Vesuvius is regarded as very active.
    There has been no eruption since 1944 and 600,000 people now live on the lower slopes of the volcano. It is the most densely populated volcanic region in the world, and an eruption could be catastrophic.
    The Italian authorities have a disaster plan and believe that they can evacuate these people in 7 days, but need to have sufficient warning of an impending eruption.
    But the warning may only come 2 days before the eruption. and there are 3 million close enough to be affected by a major eruption. Others further away could be at risk as in the big eruptions in 472 and 1631 Vesuvian ash fell on Istambul, over 1,200 kilometres away.
    It is now 70 years since an eruption and the next could well be a major one, with little warning. An international effort is needed to deal with this threat.
    I propose an International Panel on Controlling Vesuvius should be set up, and call on all governments to provide lots of funding.
    The IPCV will be based on the successful IPCC Model, and hold annual Conferences with thousands of participants. Already hundreds of scientists have sent in their CV’s and declared themselves ready to meet the danger by partying in exotic locations with multiple 5 star hotels. Several leading economists have declared themselves ready, for a suitable fee, to report on the enormous cost of the disaster and how cheap the countermeasures really are. The public will be encouraged to do its part by wearing sackcloth and refraining from drinking bottled water in public.
    While the IPCV will rely heavily on computer models some measurements may be needed, although most of the scientists involved feel this is unnecessary. But it could provide blackadderthe4th with respectable employment and enable him to abandon his aimless & inane trolling.
    Clutching a thermometer he would be lowered into the crater on a long rope to measure the temperature of the molten magma.
    WAIT …What’s this?
    The Griss feels that blackadderthe4th might not have the intellectual capabilities to be a weight at the end of a long rope, and recommends someone with a little scientific knowledge.
    Step forward Dr. Philip Shehan, your hour of glory cometh.

    231

    • #
      Peter Miller

      Where do I send my CV?

      I am still upset the IPCC returned my CV, just because I said I was a geologist and believed natural climate cycles did not stop in 1950, as per their official doctrine.

      I am quite willing to help lower Blackadderthe4th into the Vesuvius crater in order to get accurate temperature measurements, as long as that gets me lots of fat grant cheques and 5 star travel. I will do whatever it takes just to say I am a real climate scientist, so I can start living the good life.

      70

  • #
    Paul in Sweden

    Jo/Dave,Have a UPS, another switch, another NAS and 3 Three TB disks to be installed and then I am going to be looking at your recommendation of:

    http://quicklytech.com/downloads/QuickShadow.pdf

    Looks like a good program and one that I really will be considering.

    Thanks for mentioning it.

    -Paul In Sweden

    40

    • #
      Rereke Whakaaro

      What? It doesn’t backup Mac’s … ? Seriously, WTF!

      Oh, of course, how silly of me. Mac’s don’t need such things.

      Mac’s have “Time Machine” built right into the operating system, that does the same job, and has done for generations (says the Mac user superciliously).

      41

  • #
    Richard C (NZ)

    From WUWT (my emphasis):

    ‘A Comparison Of The Efficacy Of Greenhouse Gas Forcing And Solar Forcing’

    Free (open access) Paper DOI 10.2495/HT140241

    R. A. Irvine

    Abstract

    The efficacy (E) of a forcing is a measure of its capacity to generate a temperature response in the earth’s system. Most Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models assume that the efficacy of a solar forcing is close to the efficacy of a similar sized greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. This paper examines the possibility that a change in short wave solar forcing may more readily contribute to ocean heat content (OHC) than a similar change in long wave GHG forcing. If this hypothesis is shown to be correct, then it follows that equilibrium restoration times at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) are likely to be considerably faster, on average, for a change in GHG forcing than for a similar change in solar forcing. A crude forcings model has been developed that matches almost perfectly (R2 = 0.89) the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) temperature series from 1880 to 2010. This model is compared to and performs much better over this period than the United Kingdom Met Office’s (HadGEM2) contribution to the CMIP5 (R2 = 0.16). It is concluded, by implication that the efficacy of a GHG forcing is likely to be considerably lower than the efficacy of a similar sized solar forcing. Keywords: efficacy, forcing, greenhouse gas, solar, sensitivity, climate, model.

    The Basic Energy Model (BEM)

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/10/11/a-comparison-of-the-efficacy-of-greenhouse-gas-forcing-and-solar-forcing/

    Mimics the hiatus/pause/standstill

    Model vs Actual NOAA Temperature
    http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/10/clip_image002_thumb1.png?w=717&h=437

    The inputs to the model are anthropogenic GHGs, solar, anthropogenic aerosols and internal variability.

    The aerosol input to the model is toward the lower end, but still within the IPCC’s range. Internal variability is consistent with our current knowledge and is based on a combination of the AMO and PDO indexes. The solar input assumes a solar multiplier of some sort and is consistent with our knowledge of temperature over the last millennium as graphed in the AR5 and discussed in Yu & Luo 2014.

    The physics behind the model is based on the established fact that the oceans are opaque to long wave GHG energy but are very transparent to short wave solar energy. This implies that GHG energy is returned to the atmosphere and space very quickly as latent heat of evaporation while solar energy is effectively absorbed to a depth of many meters with consequent delays in equilibrium at the Top of the Atmosphere (TOA).

    # # #

    Cat among the pigeons.

    180

    • #
      Richard C (NZ)

      [Irvine] – “It is becoming increasingly obvious that no model, with a solid physical basis, can accurately track the slope of the temperature increase from 1910 to 1940, the cooling from 1940 to 1970, the slope of the increase from 1970 to 1998, and the current temperature hiatus without assuming GHG forcing efficacy is considerably lower than solar forcing efficacy.”

      You tell ‘em Bob.

      140

      • #
        Chuck Nolan

        “no model with a solid physical basis, can accurately track the slope of the temperature”
        There ya go…fixed

        60

    • #
      Richard C (NZ)

      And from SGW (Rocket Scientist’s Journal) back in March 2010 (my emphasis):

      ‘SOLAR GLOBAL WARMING’

      by Jeffrey A. Glassman, PhD

      3/27/10. Cor. 4/17/10.

      ABSTRACT

      Solar energy as modeled over the last three centuries contains patterns that match the full 160 year instrument record of Earth’s surface temperature. Earth’s surface temperature throughout the modern record is given by

      EQ01 http://www.rocketscientistsjournal.com/_res/EQ01.jpg (1)

      where

      Sn is the increase in Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) measured as the running percentage rise in the trend at every instance in time,

      t, for the previous n years.

      The parameters are best fits with the values m134=18.33°C/%, m46=-3.68°C/%, b=13.57(-0.43)°C, and τ=6 years.

      The value of b in parenthesis gives T(t) as a temperature anomaly. One standard deviation of the error between the equation and the HadCRUT3 data is 0.11°C (about one ordinate interval). Values for a good approximation (σ=0.13°C) with a single solar running trend are m134=17.50°C/%, m46=0, b=13.55(-0.45)°C, and τ=10 years.

      http://www.rocketscientistsjournal.com/2010/03/sgw.html

      Mimics HadCRUT3

      FIGURE 1 Global average surface temperature with solar formula overlay.
      http://www.rocketscientistsjournal.com/2010/03/_res/KEYNOTE.jpg

      90

      • #
        the Griss

        Richard, I am always highly suspicious of any model that mimics HadCrut3 pre-1979.

        Pre-1979 HadCrut3 is fudged to produce an over-emphasised warming trend since the 1940′s. (as per Tom Wigglies suggestion)

        Matching to it is NOT GOOD. !!

        81

        • #
          Richard C (NZ)

          Yes Griss, looks compelling on the face of it but I wonder about those parameters with additional data. Another 10 years say?

          Glassman might need a different set of parameters for the modern and future section but I suspect both his solar energy model and Irvine’s basic energy model will look even better than the IPCC’s stable when cooling really sets in, as it inevitably will.

          Irvine’s model should show whether CO2 has any efficacy at all i.e. if his starts overshooting (e.g. temp goes down but model doesn’t respond fast enough) then that will demonstrate GHG forcing is more overstated than even he thinks.

          Scafetta will be worse off than both of them with his harmonic model though (scroll down):

          http://people.duke.edu/~ns2002/

          His original mistake being an assumption that the secular trend is a quadratic – it isn’t.

          Then there’s David Evans’ N-D solar model…..

          40

      • #
        Paul Vaughan

        Thanks for regularly sharing interesting notes Richard.

        To gain insights into the Wyatt/Mann AMO/PDO conflict, I’ve been taking a closer look at the potential of the BDO (~20 year climate bidecadal oscillation) to spatiotemporally bias haphazard aggregation.

        Without going into a whole lot of detail, I’ve confirmed Warren White’s BDO attractor using completely different methods:

        http://s15.postimg.org/muz1tv02x/Bidecadal_Oscillation_20_year_BDO.gif

        Lack of due attention to this pattern is the root of the conflict between Wyatt & Mann. So far I’ve seen no indication that either of them realize it.

        Best Regards

        50

        • #
          Richard C (NZ)

          Paul,

          >”Warren White…… ~20 year climate bidecadal oscillation” [BDO]

          Confess I had to look that up although I was vaguely aware of Mann/Wyatt.

          ‘Global SST/SLP waves during the 20th century’

          Warren B. White and
          Yves M. Tourre (2003)

          2. Data and Results

          [3] Here we apply the MTM/SVD methodology [Mann and Park, 1999] to the 93-year record (1900–1992) of SST and SLP gridded datasets from 40°S to 60°N [Kaplan et al., 1998]. It produces a local fractional variance spectrum (top, Figure 1) that yields 7 discrete signals, significant at the 99% confidence level. They are the BDO and QDO signals near 16.7-year and 10.5-year periods, respectively, the ENSO signals near 5.5-, 4.4-, 3.5-, and 2.9-year periods, and the QBO signal near 2.2-year period. These signals are the same as those determined over the continents [Mann and Park, 1994], the Northern Hemisphere [Mann and Park, 1996], the Arctic Ocean [Venegas and Mysak, 2000], the Atlantic Ocean [Tourre et al., 1999], the Pacific Ocean [Tourre et al., 2001], and the Global Ocean [Allan, 2000]. Here we supplement discussion of the global standing modes by Allan [2000] with discussion of the global traveling waves.

          http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2003GL017055/full

          Figure 1 graphs it all. Thnx.

          OK, so traveling waves and stadium waves but doesn’t that apply to frequencies 10x times longer and more e.g. 200 yr?

          When they start arguing in that timeframe it will really get interesting.

          60

          • #
            Paul Vaughan

            Not all low-frequency varimax-rotated MSSA RCs need be interpreted as cycles. Details forthcoming — but meanwhile:

            ERSST EOF 1234 Review:

            Stadium Wave map-animations based on
            RI-SCD (sunspot integral minus solar cycle deceleration)
            which is tightly coherent with AMOC:

            SST: 3 correlation ranges / mid-range with polar views
            Supplementary: SLP

            A shorter time-step will ease perception. (Remember: I challenged rich agencies with time & resources to get paid technicians to easily outdo preliminary spearheading.)

            There’s plenty more to discuss moving forward. I’ve begun work on the 9.07 year lunisolar wave admitted even by combative lukewarm political activists. More on that (in the context of spatiotemporal aggregation criteria) down the road.

            Thanks again for your comments Richard. I’ve given you some due credit at Tallbloke’s Talkshop today (in the article on the new TSI series from 1878).

            Best Regards

            20

            • #
              Richard C (NZ)

              >”I challenged rich agencies with time & resources to get paid technicians to easily outdo preliminary spearheading.”

              They’ve got an extraordinarily busy, and provocative, act to follow if that ERSST EOF 1234 review is anything to go by.

              I especially liked:

              “AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) & IPO differ fundamentally. Both of the following need careful reinterpretation &/or revision: (a) Wyatt & Curry’s “stadium wave” concept (which conflates signals of fundamentally differing origin) and (b) Mann’s apparent attempt to redefine AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) as IPO (which would realign Atlantic modeling with Meehl, Trenberth, et al. (2013) & England et al. (2014)).”

              And,

              “The IPO appears to be of lunisolar origin. Mainstream climate scientists are advised to seek assistance from EOP experts (e.g. at NASA JPL) to prove this geometrically. At interdecadal timescale, accurate IPO forecasting appears feasible”

              I think I detect an undercurrent of the type of work you describe coming from the climate science fringe that’s slowly gaining traction, just not by the prominent names that we’re used to seeing (the MSM go-to people).

              That fringe doesn’t appear to be wedded to The Cause like a couple of those above so I expect the real climate science advancements will come from them eventually. Just seems to be some lag time involved.

              20

            • #
              Richard C (NZ)

              >”mid-range with polar views”

              For downunder viewers.

              Does that explain the current Antarctic Sea Ice Extent?

              Does that influence The Southern Annular Mode (SAM)?

              SAM with respect to Australia from BOM

              http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/history/ln-2010-12/SAM-what.shtml

              SAM with respect to New Zealand from NIWA

              http://www.niwa.co.nz/publications/wa/vol14-no2-june-2006/the-southern-annular-mode-and-new-zealand-climate

              NIWA,

              “The SAM was first identified in the 1970s. On a week-to-week basis, it flips between states – causing either windier or calmer weather over New Zealand latitudes – in an unpredictable way, apparently at random. Though these phase changes of the SAM cannot be predicted more than a few days in advance, once changed, the phases tend to persist for several weeks.

              In recent years, scientists have noticed a trend in the SAM towards more periods of the positive phase, with a tendency towards strong westerlies over the southern oceans and lighter winds over the middle latitudes. The trend appears to be related to the Antarctic ozone hole, and the influence of the stratosphere on the weather lower down.”

              And,

              “This research will continue during 2006 as part of a new study supported by the Marsden Fund on connections between the SAM, the ozone hole, and El Niño. A key aspect of the project will be to assess the role of the SAM and the Antarctic ozone hole in recent trends in New Zealand climate.
              Ringing in the changes

              # The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is one of the biggest players in southern hemisphere climate.

              # The SAM controls where and how strongly the westerly winds blow.

              # SAM effects are visible in New Zealand climate, in winds, rainfall, and temperature.

              # The SAM has been trending ‘upwards’ lately, with long-term implications for New Zealand.

              # # #

              All out now. Jim Salinger on it at The Conversatio:

              ‘New Zealand is drying out, and here’s why’

              “Between 1990 and 2013 there was a 34% increase in radiative forcing — the warming effect on our climate — because of long-lived greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2), methane and nitrous oxide.”

              http://theconversation.com/new-zealand-is-drying-out-and-heres-why-32330

              My 2 cents in response at Jennifer Marohasy’s:

              “Maybe, except there’s no relationship whatsoever between CO2 and the drought index from 1941 – 1997″

              http://jennifermarohasy.com/2014/10/opera-house-still-above-sea-level-despite-homogenisation/#comment-566551

              More like the influence of an oscillation such as what Paul shows.

              20

        • #
          Richard C (NZ)

          Just took a second look at your gif Paul, realized that was 2 waves around 2 circuits of the globe not 1 wave – spectacular.

          http://postimg.org/image/5ug5l6n1j/

          30

  • #
  • #
    Another Ian

    From comments at http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/10/11/saturday-silliness-naomi-klein-comprehends-the-pause/


    PaulH says:
    October 11, 2014 at 11:02 am
    Terrence Corcoran at the National Post did a good take-down of Naomi Klein’s latest book:

    http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2014/10/03/terence-corcoran-naomi-kleins-revolutionary-dreamland/

    “Her objective is to rally millions of people in a war against climate change, to clear the world of fossil fuels and install some new social order as part of a battle of worldviews”

    Notwithstanding her (few) valid attacks on crony capitalists and various green-washing groups, it’s mostly standard socialist paradise nonsense”

    AND check out the “Three Climatologists” You Tube in the comment by Admad
    October 11, 2014 at 11:51 am below

    60

    • #
      Yonniestone

      This book is a great reference for helping future historians understand the mindset of the post modern science movement, I’m going to get a (err copy) of this book for my own future references to remember details of this insane ideal and time.

      This morning I went for a 1 hour walk around my favorite local mountain with beautiful views and wildlife abound it was yet another great experience of our natural surroundings, however not once did it cross my mind that to preserve this natural beauty I had to create social and economic global upheaval that would result in the inevitable huge loss of life in the most vulnerable humans on the planet and indeed probably destroying other developed countries over time including our own.

      The insanity of people is a constant source of amazement but should never be forgotten.

      80

  • #
    TdeF

    With the proposition that the globe would heat by degrees by the end of the century, that was air temperature?

    So what is the business of ‘missing heat’? That was not the prediction. The oceans have a mass 400x bigger than the atmosphere, so what does it matter if the water temperature rises 2/400th of a degree? The science prediction was global air temperature, wasn’t it? How can Flannery in particular just segway into heating the oceans instead? Who predicted that? Why would we spend trillions preventing it?

    I suppose it is ironic in hindsight that the warming insanity really took off at the very point where any discernible warming stopped. Perhaps we should also add the warming contributed by fossil fuels. If coal is heating big cities and driving industries on a massive scale, surely that would heat the air too?

    60

    • #
      Richard C (NZ)

      >”How can Flannery in particular just segway into heating the oceans instead?”

      By miss-attribution, of course.

      40

  • #
    handjive

    Back to Antikythera

    The Antikythera mechanism, arguably the most important archeological discovery to date, is one reason why they are going back.

    Antikythera wreck in southern Greece yields new treasures

    30

  • #
  • #
  • #

    Ebola! Just the mere mention of the word instils fear in all of us.

    You may think I’m drawing a long bow by mentioning Ebola and the generation of electrical power in the same context, but a case can be made as to why I can talk about them together, so bear with me here.

    No doubt you’ve all see the images coming out of Africa with the medical personnel in Hazmat suits, but look closely at where they are working. Out of tents and shacks, with lanterns, while here in the Developed World, we have State of the art hospitals and isolation wards where we can work in relative safety. There, in Africa, they have nothing even closely approaching that.

    So, let’s look at the three Countries where this Ebola outbreak is at its worst, Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone.

    You all no doubt remember the Guest Post Joanne kindly allowed me, where I mentioned how the Country of Niger has only 60% of the power which services Dubbo in NSW. Dubbo has a population of 40,000, and Niger has 17.5Million.

    So then let’s now compare these three Countries where Ebola is taking hold.

    The largest is Guinea, which has a population of 12 million people. The total power generation in Guinea is 950GWH, around the same power which services Bunbury in W.A. with a population of around 70,000.

    Sierra Leone has a population of 6 Million and Liberia has a population of 4.3 Million people, so both Countries, a total population of 10.3 Million. The total power generation for Sierra Leone is 145GWH, and for Liberia, 335GWH, a total of 480GWH, which is just over 90% of what is required to fully service Dubbo, with its 40,000 People. Read that again. 10.4 million people with less power than what is required for 40,000 here in Australia, a ratio of 250 to one.

    So, for all three of those African Countries you have a population of 22.3 million people ….. hey, the same population as the WHOLE of Australia, with the total power generation we use to service two cities, Bunbury and Dubbo, total population 110,000, again a ratio of over 200 to one.

    Outside of the main Capitals of these three Countries, there is no access to electrical power, and even in those Capitals, there would be limited access in most areas.

    These people live in what we would term the most squalid of situations, something we would not stand for here in Australia. Those conditions most obviously contribute towards this Ebola outbreak being so difficult to control, and, if the truth is told, probably even contribute towards its spread.

    Large scale coal fired power construction and even the most rudimentary of power grids to deliver this to where it is needed should be the model here, but the only call is for small scale solar power be used to help them, and that these Countries should be actively dissuaded from constructing large scale power for their people, to bring them, not only into the 21st Century, but into the last one. Give them renewable power, and discourage them from building the power generation which has CO2 emissions.

    This callous Green Agenda is only exacerbating this Ebola situation.

    We need to sit back and take a long hard look at what is happening here. Instead of huge dollars being spent on ridiculous renewable power options, money needs to be spent on large scales to give these people something that we take so utterly for granted, even the most rudimentary of power grids and electrical power options which can actually raise the standard of living for these people.

    We have what we have in our already Developed World because we DO have access to humungous amounts of readily available electrical power.

    THEY DO NOT.

    Until something is done to address that, then all we will be doing is mopping up, sending volunteers into an uncertain situation, with the possibility that they could bring this back into our relatively safe World.

    So, come on all you people out there who believe in climate change caused by the emissions of CO2 and want to stop the electrical power which runs our Country. Be brave and respond here, and not just with red thumbs. Actually make your case in support of what you call green power.

    Then think of how we will gradually go back to being like these Countries if you take away REAL electrical power generation.

    Tony.

    291

    • #
      Phil

      Tony
      A friend of mine forwarded a post on Facebook stating that last Tuesday South Australia was powered 100% by renewable energy. I find this very hard to believe. Do you have any insights into the veracity (or otherwise) of this claim?

      60

      • #
        the Griss

        Up to Tony to answer, but iirc, Tony has mentioned that the electricity use of all SA is similar to that of the Newcastle region of NSW.

        ie… Not very much. !!

        50

      • #

        A friend of mine forwarded a post on Facebook stating that last Tuesday South Australia was powered 100% by renewable energy. I find this very hard to believe. Do you have any insights into the veracity (or otherwise) of this claim?

        Why yes Phil, I do in fact, and yes, it’s absolutely true.

        On Tuesday, 7th October, the State of South Australia was indeed powered 100% by renewable power ….. from Midnight until about 6AM, you know, those hours when everyone is tucked up tightly in bed and sound asleep, and actual power consumption falls away to the lowest point of daily power consumption, and in fact most of that wind power was dumped because no one was actually consuming at those hours.

        However, just as they all got up in the morning, you know, when people actually start to use electrical power, and the morning peak begins, then I’m afraid to say that the renewable wind power fell away pretty dramatically, you know, just as actual consumption began to rise, so that by around 7AM, wind was only supplying around 50% of the State’s requirements, if that, and as the day progressed it fell away even further, and when the evening peak started, it was down to around 25 to 30%.

        So yes, it actually did achieve 100%. Pity no one was actually consuming power though, eh, or actually awake to notice it.

        Source Wind Performance Tuesday 07OCT2014

        Click on MW at top right of graph. Untick each State except SA and untick the total (above SA)

        And yes, Griss is also correct. S.A. consumes around the same total as for Newcastle, so not all that much in the scheme of things.

        Tony.

        190

        • #

          Oh, and keep in mind here that during that same time period Midnight to 5/6AM, the one remaining coal fired unit was still supplying its dedicated rock solid always there total power. You don’t just ring up a coal fired power plant and tell them to shut down, and then 6 hours later tell them to run it back up.

          So, probably more than half that wind power was being dumped, unused. However, every one of those wind plants still got paid every cent for every watt of power they generated, enshrined in their contracts, oh, and paid for by every consumer in South Australia.

          Greedy money grubbing ba$tards, those wind plant owners.

          Tony.

          220

          • #
            Graeme No.3

            Tony:

            SA does send some energy to Victoria via the Interconnector (power lines to you and me). Since the Vics. have plenty of brown coal fired which doesn’t shut down, they would have had to send the electricity onto the Tas. & Snowy pumped storage schemes. Obviously neither of those would have been keen to pay extra for that.

            When the wind died down and SA had to import electricity from Victoria, they would have to pay the going rate.

            Nice business, sell what costs $110 for $30, then buy it back at $45. Did I mention that the Labor Government has racked up huge deficits and is having to cut social services?

            140

            • #

              Graeme No.3

              you just have to laugh here.

              True, that interchange works both ways, but between midnight and 6AM, the big ‘hummers’ are supplying all of Victoria’s needs, so South Australia can’t even give the power away.

              Tony.

              90

            • #
              DavidH

              “sell what costs $110 for $30, then buy it back at $45″

              Sounds like one of Mile Minderbinder’s schemes. What would Jospeh Heller have written about all this? A book called “Catch Agenda-21″?

              10

          • #
            handjive

            This 1.44 min youtube video best explains it:

            Renewable Energy Fails Protesters Calling for More Renewable Energy

            Demonstrators gathered outside the Public Service Commission to protest against a requested rate structure change by the local utility company, Madison Gas and Electric (MG&E).

            During the protest, they decried the use of “dirty coal” and called for more renewable energy.

            To make their point, they had a blow-up coal power plant that was running on a fan powered by wind and solar charged batteries.

            Before the protest was over, however, the batteries died and their solar panel could not produce enough energy to keep the power plant standing upright.

            110

            • #
              Rereke Whakaaro

              No cognitive dissonance there, nope, not a bit, none at all, move on folks, nothing to see here …

              00

        • #
          Andrew

          Thanks. But they specifically said 09:30-18:00 that renewables generated above 100%. It’s GetUp so shouldn’t be hard to find.

          10

          • #
            James Murphy

            Well, there’s your problem, it’s GetUp. They only have brief, and accidental brushes with reality. Not so much the fun and flirtatious accidental brushes either, it’s much more a creepy and lecherous scenario.

            20

        • #
          Andrew

          A week earlier. Sep 30?

          10

          • #

            You know, there’s something worth ridiculing in all this.

            South Australia.

            It’s a STATE ….. a whole State. Man, a whole State must consume an awful lot of electricity.

            South Australia consumes around 2.5 to 3 Percent of all the power consumed in Australia.

            And these people gloat when they can find ONE DAY when renewable power (might have) supplied 100% of demand.

            Who cares?

            It’s tiny.

            To paraphrase the Pythons ….. I laugh in your general direction!

            Tony.

            30

      • #
        Michael P

        I had someone try to convince me last year that china was and I quote “80+% solar” so I wouldn’t pay to much attention to it.

        20

        • #
          Rereke Whakaaro

          That is probably true.

          About 80% of Chinese live without electricity, because they can’t afford it. Watch the video at 12.2, which uses Africa as a reference.

          The same applies to China, as soon as you get more than a couple of hundred miles away from the coast.

          Most Western visitors only get to see Beijing, Qingdao, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Guangzhou, or Macao. But the rest of China is not quite like those places.

          10

    • #
      • #

        PLEASE.

        Everybody still reading this, take 6 minutes and watch the video at the above link provided by Another Ian.

        Look then at the image above that link, showing Global Energy Poverty.

        That is what I’m talking about. Look at India, Africa, China, South America, and Southern Asia.

        That is scary.

        And the UN is mandating that all money raised from CO2 Taxes and Emissions Trading Schemes have the bulk of that money sent to the UN for distribution to these Developing Countries so they can construct renewable power plants and to not construct CO2 emitting power plants.

        Tony.

        90

  • #
    DMA

    This week an in depth report of a 32 day “cold fusion” reactor test was posted. ( http://www.elforsk.se/LENR-matrapport-publicerad ) I have been following this for several years and submit that it is the beginning of the end of the “business as usual” mantra for anthropogenic CO2 causing dangerous climate change. LENR truly holds the promise of replacing much of the fossil fuel energy we now need that is at the root of the warmists efforts to control the world economy. If LENR now gets a little recognition and a little research funding ( 1/100 of carbon capture and sequestering would be a huge increase)it could become mainstream in a few years.

    10

    • #
      farmerbraun

      But it doesn’t add up up just yet :-
      ‘We have a device giving heat energy compatible with nuclear transformations, but it operates at low energy and gives neither nuclear radioactive waste nor emits radiation. From basic general knowledge in nuclear physics this should not be possible. Nevertheless we have to relate to the fact that the experimental results from our test show heat production beyond chemical burning, and that the E-Cat fuel undergoes nuclear transformations. It is certainly most unsatisfying that these results so far have no convincing theoretical explanation, but the experimental results cannot be dismissed or ignored just because of lack of theoretical understanding.”

      50

    • #
      handjive

      Here is an interesting one:

      Spiegel reports about new electrostatic motor/generator. German article, english video.

      http://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/technik/elektrostatisch-forscher-entwickeln-neuartigen-elektromotor-a-991518.html

      20

  • #
  • #
    pat

    10 Oct: Bloomberg: Fracking Setback in Poland Dims Hope for Less Russian Gas
    By Marek Strzelecki and Isis Almeida
    The highest test flows during the country’s five-year search for unconventional gas were just 30 percent of what’s needed for commercial production, said Pawel Poprawa, a geologist at the AGH University of Science and Technology in Krakow. The number of active shale permits has fallen 43 percent from a high in January 2013 and explorers probably won’t extend all those expiring this year, according to Slawomir Brodzinski, the nation’s deputy environment minister.
    3Legs Resources Plc, the Isle of Man-based company that was the first foreign explorer to buy a license in the East European nation, said last month it’s leaving after poor results at Poland’s biggest fracking operation in the northeastern Baltic Basin…
    Exxon Mobil Corp. left Poland in 2012 after results from early wells disappointed. Talisman Energy Inc. and Marathon Oil Corp. gave up in May 2013, while Eni SpA withdrew nine months ago…
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-09/fracking-setback-in-poland-dim-hopes-for-less-russian-gas.html

    30

  • #
    pat

    11 Oct: UK Telegraph: Christopher Hope: Scrap the Climate Change Act to keep the lights on, says Owen Paterson
    The Climate Change Act 2008, which ties Britain into stringent environmental measures, should be suspended – and then scrapped – if other countries refuse to agree legally binding targets, says Owen Paterson MP
    Britain will struggle to “keep the lights on” unless the Government changes its green energy policies, the former environment secretary will warn this week.
    Owen Paterson will say that the Government’s plan to slash carbon emissions and rely more heavily on wind farms and other renewable energy sources is fatally flawed…
    He will also suggest that home owners should get used to temporary power cuts — cutting the electricity to appliances such as fridges for two hours at a time, for example — to conserve energy.
    Mr Paterson will deliver the lecture at the Global Warming Policy Foundation, a think tank set up by Lord Lawson of Blaby, a climate-change sceptic and former chancellor in Margaret Thatcher’s Cabinet…
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/energy/11156113/Scrap-the-Climate-Change-Act-to-keep-the-lights-on-says-Owen-Paterson.html

    60

    • #
      jorgekafkazar

      Translated: The UK absolutely must not jump off the cliff unless all the other lemmings jump, too. Then it’s okay.

      20

  • #
    pat

    12 Oct: Guardian: Phillip Inman: British duo in running for Nobel prize for economics
    Sir Anthony Atkinson of Nuffield College and Princeton-based Angus Deaton are contenders for their work on inequality and wellbeing
    The Nobel prize for economics will be awarded tomorrow and there are plenty of candidates in the running for the 8m Swedish krona (£775,000) award…
    This year’s potential winners include:
    Marty Weitzman, Bill Nordhaus, William Baumol, Sir Partha Dasgupta
    Environmental economics
    Could environmental science be the flavour for 2014? It would give some momentum to next year’s global climate change talks in Paris and emphasise the recent warnings by US secretary of state John Kerry that global warming is a huge threat.
    Harvard University’s Weitzman has examined the effects of carbon pricing. Nordhaus is an economics professor at Yale’s school of forestry and environmental studies while Baumol, who is 92, works at New York State University, where he has lobbied for the inclusion of environmental improvements in the national accounts. Dasgupta, an economics professor at Cambridge university, has examined the link between environmental improvements and wellbeing…
    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/oct/12/british-duo-nobel-economics-prize-anthony-atkinson-angus-deaton-nuffield-princeton

    20

  • #
    pat

    for these “truths” and more, read it all:

    11 Oct: Desmoines Register: Iowa roots: James Hansen speaks truth to power
    BY JAMES HANSEN
    Implications for energy policy are crystal clear. Most remaining fossil fuels must be left in the ground, unless the CO2 is captured and buried. There is no serious scientific debate about this…
    The truth is that present energy and climate policies of the United States and the United Nations are dishonest and tragic…
    Most conservatives I know are thoughtful. They do not want to go down in history as being responsible for blocking effective action to stabilize climate…
    http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/opinion/columnists/iowa-view/2014/10/11/james-hansen-climate-change-speaking-truth-power/17118625/

    30

  • #
    pat

    11 Oct: France24: French FM praises ‘visionator’ Schwarzenegger
    Arnold Scharzenegger has gone from “Terminator” to “innovator and visionator”, France’s Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said Saturday in praise of the former governor of California (where he was “Governator”).
    “It’s rare for a Terminator to also be an innovator and visionator,” Fabius said at the first World Summit of Regions for Climate conference hosted by Scwarzenegger, who founded the R20 group, which helps sub-national governments lower their carbon footprint…
    A principal objective is the tricky issue of getting governments to pledge donations to a global fund to support environmental projects.
    Fabius said the fund stood at 1.8 million euros (France and Germany being the principal contributors) and that the target was to raise 15 billion euros by the end of the year.
    Schwarzenegger told reporters: “Doing nothing will cost us a fortune.”…
    http://www.france24.com/en/20141011-french-fm-schwarzenegger-environment-fabius/

    the link in the above to the Simmit didn’t work for me, but go to this one to check out the sponsors:

    World Summit of Regions for Climate
    http://regions-climate.org/en/

    30

  • #
    handjive

    One for Australia’s East Coast myths:

    Sydney panther legend surfaces in Goulburn after couple photograph predator on property

    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/animals/sydney-panther-legend-surfaces-in-goulburn-after-couple-photograph-predator-on-property-20141004-10qa0o.html

    30

  • #
    handjive

    Lasers Reveal Underground ‘Super Henge’

    Archeologists believe the Stonehenge complex was built and modified over a period of 11,000 years.

    Because most of the clues about the ancient construction lie deep underground, the archeologists developed new techniques for finding the traces of pits and pillars.
    They beamed radar and lasers into the ground, and wheeled scanners over a vast area to study subtle changes in the Earth’s magnetic field.

    http://www.popsci.com.au/science/lasers-reveal-underground-super-henge-,392035

    40

  • #
    ROM

    Jo has had a number of past posts on papers that have found that under ice volcanoes are likely to be responsible for the melting of the immense Thwaites Glacier, one of the Antarctic continent’s largest glaciers in West Antarctica . A theory which has taken the wind right out of the alarmists claims that global warming is even capable of melting immense kilometre deep Antarctic glaciers from the bottom up.

    Ref; JoNova headline post June 9th / 2014. Surprise, West Antarctic volcano melts ice

    A later paper again than the one Jo used for that post is listed on The Hockey Schtick as of yesterday, Sat Oct 11th 2014 which reinforces the fact that the melting seen in both the Thwaites Glacier and the nearby Pine Island Glacier are being melted from underneath by volcanic type activity associated with the volcanic rifting zone that lies under West Antarctica.

    Via the Hockey Schtick site;

    New paper finds West Antarctic glacier likely melting from geothermal heat below

    [ quoted ]
    New paper finds West Antarctic glacier likely melting from geothermal heat below

    A paper published today in Earth and Planetary Science Letters finds evidence that one of the largest glaciers in West Antarctica, the Thwaites Glacier, is primarily melting from below due to geothermal heat flux from volcanoes located along the West Antarctic Volcanic Rift System, i.e. not due to man-made CO2.
    &
    Variable crustal thickness beneath Thwaites Glacier revealed from airborne gravimetry, possible implications for geothermal heat flux in West Antarctica

    Theresa M. Damiania, , , Tom A. Jordanb, , Fausto Ferracciolib, , Duncan A. Youngc, , Donald D. Blankenshipc

    The Byrd Subglacial Basin beneath Thwaites Glacier is part of Mesozoic widespread rifting.

    Thin crust (18–24 km) exists in eastern Marie Byrd Land and beneath Thwaites Glacier.

    Gravity evidence supports hypothesis of warm mantle beneath Marie Byrd Land.

    Supports the use of thin crust and higher heat flux values in Western Antarctica.

    &
    “we prefer the hypothesis that Marie Byrd Land volcanoes are thermally-supported by warmer upper mantle. The presence of such inferred warm upper mantle also suggests regionally elevated geothermal heat flux in this sector of the West Antarctic Rift System and consequently the potential for enhanced meltwater production beneath parts of Thwaites Glacier itself.”

    [ more ]

    60

    • #
      Ted O'Brien.

      What is the conductivity of ice?

      Where thick ice overlies the land, surely there would be a steady temperature progression from coldest at the surface to hottest at the centre of the earth.

      Somewhere along the way the temperature must be at freezing point for water/ice.

      Where this occurs at the surface of the land, melting occurs there. If additional new ice is applied to the surface of the ice, the insulation property of that new depth of ice will surely cause an increase in the rate of melting at the surface of the land. i.e. increasing the depth of ice will increase the melting below.

      00

  • #
    Gethrog

    Just thought you should all know that the Warmists latest plan is to follow the advice of psychologists who are better able to convince us why we are all wrong…..and here we were just thinking all we needed was proof.

    http://nym.ag/1rEq1DT?mid=emailshare_scienceofus

    40

  • #
  • #

    Just curious, does anyone know the status of Dr Murry Salby in regards to Macquarie University in Sydney (yes I know he was sacked) and what he is doing now?
     
     
    Regards
    Climate Heretic

    30

  • #

    TonyfromOz
     

    What are your thoughts or knowledge on the to privatising the electricity sector in Queensland.

    Yes I know it is a very complex subject and I for one do not have any real details on hand.

    Regards
    Climate Heretic

    20

    • #
      Len

      Liberal governments have a history of this activity. That is of selling public utilities to their mates for usually a low price. That is why the South Australians still remember their last liberal government selling their lotteries to their mates at a low price.

      10

      • #

        Hmm!

        Wasn’t all that selling off Electrical power plants Bob Carr’s idea as far back as 1997, and then it finally took till the last Labor premier to finally finish it off.

        Tony.

        20

        • #
          Len

          It looks like the Labor have mates as well, Tony.

          10

        • #
          Ted O'Brien.

          Jeff Kennett did it when he inherited a bankrupt Victoria. Note that in the years leading up to that ALP governments bankrupted South Australia and Western Australia also. Nick Greiner saved NSW from the same fate, after the ALP treasurer Ken Booth had given a stunning reply to what I had thought a silly question from a journalist: “What if the government becomes bankrupt?” His reply: “It is not possible for a government to be bankrupt.” The question wasn’t so silly after all.

          At about that time I spoke to an earthmoving contractor who was in a seething rage. Three government departments had owed him $270,000 for seven months. As a result he had got behind with his PAYE payments. He had sent his secretary with all the particulars to the Tax Office, who had declared: “You know they are slow to pay. You have to make allowance for that”, and fined him $10,000.

          But it goes back much further than that. When Hawke took over the leadership of the ACTU in 1969, he announced that the power generation industry would be the thin edge of his policy wedge. We saw many power strikes between then and when Joh Bjelke Petersen broke the last great power strike in Queensland. Joh never tolerated saboteurs. Simon Crean as head of the ACTU went up to sort it out and came back with his tail very much between his legs.

          However in the meantime ACTU policy had no doubt entrenched bloated costs in the power generation industry. Incidentally, that contractor named the Electricity Commission as his biggest debtor.

          That is not to say that I support their “free market theory”. Free Market Theory as applied by the Howard government did more to advance the cause of Marxism in rural Australia that it did under Hawke.

          10

  • #
     D o u g   C o t t o n 

    There is absolutely no other way to explain how the necessary energy gets into the surfaces of Earth and Venus than by non-radiative heat transfer, because the intensity of solar radiation just is nowhere near enough. It’s not hard to understand once you understand what thermodynamic equilibrium is all about, and if you have no idea why this is important to understand then you are best either working it out for yourself, reading my book “Why It’s Not Carbon Dioxide After All” or keeping out of all discussion pertaining to planetary temperatures, because these temperatures are not determined by radiation alone – not by a long shot, and the world has been very seriously misled by the biggest scientific blunder of all time.

    10

  • #
    Andrew McRae

    Anyone following this afternoon’s news would have seen an interesting development from a well known Australian climate change personality.

    More analysis, punditry, and the hyperlink when I get off my phone.
    (until then, can guess?)

    20

    • #
      Dave

      Just saw the idiot Flannery on ABC

      Release Tassie devils on mainland to get rid of feral cats?
      http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-10-12/tas-devils-to-prey-on-feral-cats-holder/5806242

      This is after Greens in Tasmania few years ago spent $50 million to find foxes
      “But didn’t find any”

      The Green World gone mad I think

      40

      • #
        Andrew McRae

        Dave is now the owner of two imaginary Internet Brownie Points for correctly identifying both the person and the news story. Don’t spend them all in one place, Dave!

        Now for amateur arm chair speculation on what this could signify from the climate change angle.

        How long have we been speculating that all the climate luminaries will begin to backpedal on CAGW and look for ways to quietly retire from the climate spotlight without repercussions? Probably at least two years now, and well before the Liberal-in-name-only Party won the election.

        Now here is Flannery quoted at length in an ABC news story, and how is he introduced? My emphasis:

        Feral cats have been in Australia for more than 100 years but mammalogist Professor Tim Flannery said their devastating impact on native wildlife has grown since recent pest management programs have decreased fox populations.

        What? How did “climate change expert Tim Flannery” [News Oct 2013, BBC Sep 2013, Tele 2012] suddenly become a mere mammalogy professor?
        Oh that’s right, he was never a climate change expert, he’s always been a mammalogist.
        And really, with the parlous state of climate seance, mammalogy is practically a promotion.

        Now floundering Flanners has found his feet on firm foundations finally and is slyly seeking salutations for his slightly more scientific experiences in examining endangered ecosystems. Still thrilling to the clarion call of activism, he’s not content to sit in the Uni library and count the koalas. Flannery still wants to intervene in the ecosystem and restore the natural pre-industrial balance, but this time it’s cats and not “carbon” that’s got to go.

        How important is this problem… you know, in the grand scheme of things?

        The Action Plan for Australian Mammals, released in June by the CSIRO, estimated there are 15 million feral cats in Australia and listed them as the number one threat to Australian mammals.

        That’s great news, as it means climate change is NOT the the number one threat to Australian mammals. As to how they know there’s 15 million and not 5 million without taking a cat census is anyone’s guess.

        Professor Tim Flannery agrees that any devil release needs to be tested first.
        “Let’s fence an area with both cats and foxes and introduce a single-sex group of devils and study what happens because it’s good science that is going to inform us,” he said.
        “While we do have a sense of what will happen, we still actually need to demonstrate that on the ground.”

        Further good news! With his climate seance hat taken off the old Flanners has suddenly rediscovered empiricism. Surely Timmy is well on the road to recovery.

        Yes, ex-climate change expert Dr Flannery has returned to his old occupation and with a bit of help from CSIRO he might still yet save the planet – from man-made cat change. But will the taxpayers forgive or forget?

        60

      • #
        Ted O'Brien.

        Could we dare hope that this marks the final discreditation of comrade Tim? I know that he is not alone with this lunacy. The wolves are back at Yellowstone, dingoes are being spoken of kindly in the media and so on. When will Tim reintroduce the dinosaurs?

        The Green world is certainly going madder.

        40

        • #
          Andrew McRae

          I would expect any mainland devil experiment to fail. They already told us in that same article that the devil was extinct on the mainland before the arrival of the British. Even without introduced European cats to compete against there was something about the mainland that devils were just not equipped to deal with. How does Flim-Flam think devils will fare any better today? Perhaps we should see that as a plus of his plan: it has a built in expiry date and after the devils have devoured the cats the devils will disappear again, their job done.
          In the meantime, can we expect CSIRO to give a helping hand to Tassie devils to help them thrive against all odds? In fact, isn’t Tim trying to create a new class of welfare recipients? Hahaha. Ah well, I guess it’s for a good cause.

          30

          • #
            Ted O'Brien.

            I have a fear that Tasmanian Devils may already be being bred in NSW in the Barrington Tops, where apparently the bookworms believe the climate is similar. While this could be a legitimate exercise, one must worry that some of the people working on the job may share the lunacy expressed by Tim. I you hadn’t heard it, you wouldn’t believe it.

            30

        • #
          Ted O'Brien.

          More.

          When I was younger and stronger I put in a fair bit of time spotlight shooting in the western reaches of the Hunter Valley. Foxes thrived there, feral cats there were some but not many. They appeared not to thrive.

          We used to put out a lot of rabbit poison, chopped carrots poisoned with 10-80, about 90 miles of trail over 10,000 acres in an annual event, which was very effective. That also kept the fox numbers down, because a rabbit usually ate enough poison to kill the fox that ate the dead rabbit. Foxes also ate the carrots.

          I was the bloke that used to ride the trail next day on a horse to check the results. I never saw any sign that we killed anything other than rabbits and foxes. We haven’t found it necessary to poison rabbits for about 20 years now, as some disease seemed to be keeping the numbers down better than myxomatosis did.

          The price of fox skins went up to around $30 or more. People went shooting them professionally, in the early winter when their coats were thickest, and before the breeding season.

          This, surprisingly, proved very good for the foxes. It eliminated diseases among the foxes, apparently because sick foxes were slow foxes and they got shot. The remaining foxes then bred much more successfully, and next year the numbers were up again. I don’t believe I have seen a mangy fox since.

          40

  • #

    I wonder if many who read Jo’s posts have also read the news that Owen Patterson, the former UK Cabinet Minister, has come out strongly against the ludicrous UK Climate Change Act?

    As can be seen in the Telegraph story regarding Owen Paterson and the truly awful Climate Change Act, he is calling for the repeal, or at least the suspension, of this Act which promises to be THE most expensive legislation ever saddled upon this benighted Nation of ours. He states that the absurd levels of the so-called ‘Decarbonisation’ demanded by this Act will cost us £1,100 Billion in terms of cash we cannot afford, and after the disastrous damage wrought by the ‘Decarbon’ process, we will not have altered the Carbon Dioxide levels in the atmosphere by one ounce. Click on the Link, and read the story for yourselves.

    Now speaking and writing personally, as I always do, I had a fair amount of time for Owen Paterson as a man, but probably a bit less for him as a politician. He was, in many respects, the typical old-time Tory from the Shires; his background was rural, his values seemed to be based in the English countryside. He voted against the truly ghastly Same-Sex marriage farrago, and he also, happily, came down like a ton of bricks on the limp-wristed Chris Smith in his disgusting and disgraceful actions when the Environment Agency’s wholesale abandonment of decades of sensible flood management systems resulted in the worst flooding of the Somerset Levels since records first began.

    But I think that Owen Patterson ought to state why he has come out against the Climate Act only now, when on the back-benches, instead of when he was in Cabinet, and in a much higher profile position than now, when he could have stood up and denounced this Act for the ‘Green Crap’ it so soundly endorses.

    Why did he keep quiet, if he believed that the Act was so wrong for Great Britain?

    Why did he not threaten to resign if no-one took any notice of a countryman standing up for the Country?

    Why did he stay in the Coalition Government if he felt that this policy, and this Act, was so wrong?

    Why did he allow the Environment Agency to continue for so long with the perverted schemes of Chris Smith, when it was plainly obvious of the damage they were doing to the landscapes of England?

    Or is the simple truth that he is, and always has been, just another greasy bloody politician, out purely for his own purposes, and ever ready to ditch a long-held belief for his own advancement?

    60

    • #
      Matty

      The Tories say they are the only Party with the numbers & the ‘policies’, to deliver what the UK Independence Party is asking for (Referendum on EU, immigration policy etc) . It seems that all the Tories are delivering right now though, is more defectors to UKIP (Carswell, Reckless, …(?) ) Could Paterson be lining himself up to be the next ?

      20

    • #
      Eddie

      If Paterson had talked out of line while a Minister he’d have been on the Back Benches a lot sooner. While some conviction politicians have resigned as Ministers for that very purpose, I guess he just didn’t feel the time was right any sooner. Pity he lost the initiative by waiting till he was sacked though.

      40

    • #
      ROM

      Cabinet solidarity is a very powerful tool in the Westminister system.
      A minister is bound by his oath to support and promote the policies of the Cabinet of which he a member and on which the Cabinet has voted.

      Even down at Local politics levels, the local Council level, Councillors are bound to follow the policies as agreed by vote in the Council. And thats even if and when they vehemently disagree with any of those policies.

      The alternative is to resign and thereby lose any influence one might have had to influence, change or modify the policy decisions.
      Or in extremes by resigning, lose the ability to recall the policies and to re-examine them if and when it goes t**s up.

      It is also in the case with boards of businesses where all members of the board are required to publicly support the policies that the board has voted on.
      Some business law might even require this of board members

      00

    • #
      gai

      Dellingpole answers your question:

      http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/07/20/David-Cameron-cravenly-surrenders-to-Big-Green

      http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/07/20/UK-government-minister-I-had-more-death-threats-from-the-greens-than-IRA-terrorists

      “Since his departure it has been announced that Paterson will deliver the prestigious Annual Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF) Lecture in October. The GWPF has set out to debunk many of the myths propagated by what Paterson calls the “Green Blob”. He is widely expected to launch a stinging attack on groups like Friends of the Earth now he is no-longer shackled by his ministerial straight jacket.

      From what I read it would seem he stayed despite being muzzled because he could do some good. Now that he has been kicked out I think David Cameron is really going to regret it.

      00

  • #
    Ted O'Brien.

    WUWT tells us Bill Shorten has decided a carbon tax will still be unsaleable come the next election. Haven’t seen it elsewhere yet, but WUWT quotes the smh.

    The main news today was that the pavement failed at the Bathurst 1000, causing a suspension of the race for repairs, after a number of crashes. There will be some gnashing of teeth there.

    30

  • #
    DouptingDave

    hi everyone during the week i downloaded a book on my playstore app, its a study in what makes a genius. i thought some of you that like a good read might be interested as it covers the life and work of Nikola Tesla and its a FREE download. The author is Sean Patrick and the book is titled Nikola Tesla imagination and the man that invented the 20th century. or you could search the author online

    20

    • #
      Eddie

      Interesting to see Tesla’s great idea for wireless power transfer is only now being commercialised, at anything beyond the scale of the electric toothbrush.

      “At present, WiTricity technology charges devices at around 6 to 12 inches with roughly 95 percent efficiency—12 watts for mobile devices and up to 6.6 kilowatts for cars.”

      Wireless charging coming soon …

      20

    • #
      C.J.Richards

      It’s a great story. Having a job finding a simple .pdf version though, except at one of those places insisting on your credit card details for its Free Downloads. How many people does it think were born yesterday ?

      40

    • #
      Bob Tilden

      Many of Tesla’s own accounts and insights can be read in his short autobiography first published in 1919 My Inventions

      30

      • #
        Ted O'Brien.

        Note the stunningly prophetic final three sentences of that account. (1919?)

        It is particularly regrettable that a punitive policy was adopted in framing the terms of peace, because a few years hence it will be possible for nations to fight without armies, ships or guns, by weapons far more terrible, to the destructive action and range of which there is virtually no limit. A city, at any distance whatsoever from the enemy, can be destroyed by him and no power on earth can stop him from doing so. If we want to avert an impending calamity and a state of things which may transform this globe into an inferno, we should push the development of flying machines and wireless transmission of energy without an instant’s delay and with all the power and resources of the nation.

        20

  • #
    old44

    Survey finds 1 in 8 Australians cannot afford to pay electricity bill
    By consumer affairs reporter Amy Bainbridge
    Updated 53 minutes agoMon 13 Oct 2014, 12:17

    The Ernst & Young survey of households in Victoria, New South Wales and Queensland showed more than one in 10 people have missed more than three bill payments in the past 12 months.

    The proportion of customers often or occasionally worried about being able to pay their electricity bill has also remained consistently high at 70 per cent since the same survey last year.

    Earlier this month, the ABC revealed some household bills had gone up as much as $1,000 in the past five years.

    Ernst & Young’s Jenny Young said the survey sought to gauge how people are coping with rising energy costs.

    Do you know more about this story? Email investigations@abc.net.au
    “Electricity prices are continuing to be a cause of financial stress for Australian consumers,” she told the ABC.

    “Most are citing the reason for missing a bill to being unable to afford the payment, so that was the single biggest reason for not paying on time.

    “It is causing concern, a lot of people are very worried about financial stress in general but electricity bills are one of the key financial stressors.”

    Federal Parliament has announced a Senate inquiry to investigate whether the so-called gold plating of Australia’s electricity networks is artificially driving up the cost of electricity.

    Up to 60 per cent of some household electricity bills can be attributed to network costs, which is the amount passed on to consumers for maintaining infrastructure such as poles and wires.

    The Energy Retailers Association of Australia (ERAA) said there were hardship programs available to consumers who were suffering financial stress.

    “Your energy retailer is there to help when you have payment difficulties. Whether it’s a short term difficulty or a longer term hardship, your retailer can help tailor a payment plan,” ERAA chief executive Cameron O’Reilly said.

    “If you think you are unable to pay your energy bill, please to talk to your retailer as early as possible to see what options are available.

    “This may include the retailer arranging an extension on bill payments if necessary, creating affordable payment plans to help get back on track, providing financial counselling or making sure you get full entitlements from government agencies such as Centrelink.”

    The survey also found nine in 10 people said they had, or would consider, switching to solar energy.

    “The interest in solar is very much driven by the opportunity to save money and that was by far and away the most dominant reason … to switch to solar,” Ms Young said.

    “Not everybody does make the switch to solar because of the cost of installation but there is significant interest around solar.”

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-10-13/1-in-8-australians-cant-pay-electricity-bill/5805886

    After imposing a carbon tax to raise prices and force people to use less electricity you just know Labor are going to blame Tony Abbott

    30

  • #
    James Murphy

    Talking of things science-related, it seems that common sense still prevails in some parts of the world, in particular France, where a couple is facing a fine, and possible gaol time for refusing to immunise their children. The story is here.

    In other French news, a socialist proposal to means-test family benefits (which are currently universal), and to have a sliding scale of payment rates, has been opposed by the ‘right’, and also by ‘communists’ for the same basic reasons – it’s seen as one of the rare public policies which actually works (based on birth rates and numbers of children per household), and it’s an attack on the very concept of social security.

    I like to see different sides of politics have the same basic views on some things, and not be afraid to say so. Unlike, of course, the shameful Australian political climate which encourages and thrives on division and argument based on Party, not on policy…

    20

  • #
  • #

    A long time ago I used to subscribe to Discover magazine. Here’s an example of why I let my subscription lapse:

    Antarctic Ice Melt is Changing Earth’s Gravity

    Note the loaded terms, the imputation that events occurring locally and that can probably be explained by local factors (such as volcanoes under West Antarctica) are indicative of the same thing happening globally, and, of course, our old favourite, the ‘disasters’ that are going to happen in the future.

    20

  • #
    pat

    ***memory loss?

    12 Oct: LA Times: Mark Z. Barabak: Tom Steyer’s climate change crusade focuses on midterm races, for now
    Tom Steyer wants to save the planet, but first he wants to know about the U.S. Senate race in Iowa…
    He’s built an organization that includes some of the country’s top campaign strategists. He’s won a following among environmental activists thrilled at his free-spending ways — he’s drawn at least $40 million from his own checkbook this election cycle — and recruited a nationwide legion of green-thinking volunteers…
    What really drew notice, though, was a stated intention this spring to spend $100 million — half Steyer’s money, half raised from supporters — to make global warming an overriding issue in the midterm election. Fundraising has fallen drastically short of that goal, however; the NextGen political action committee collected nearly $43 million through August, the end of the last reporting period, and all but about $2 million of that came from Steyer.
    ***He now says he has no idea where the $100-million figure originated, blaming “somebody I don’t know who has never owned up to it.”
    Actually, Steyer’s political strategists suggested the sum, both in public and private…
    http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/la-na-tom-steyer-environment-2014-elections-20141012-story.html#page=1

    10

  • #
    pat

    old44 -

    note E&Y claim it is a survey of “households”. guess they’d have to, given renters can’t install solar panels, tho there are plenty of rented houses, which E&Y probably hopes we don’t mention.

    re the survey: only Business Insider Australia mentions: “These findings from Ernst & Young’s latest Customer Experience Series – Utilities survey” – as opposed to Ernst & Young’s quarterly Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index, that is – LOL.

    as for blaming the current Government, ABC has already started:

    13 Oct: ABC: Sarina Locke: Regional households hit hardest by high electricity bills
    According to the EY report, nine in ten Australians say they have already or would consider buying photovoltaic (PV) cells and 70 per cent reported it was to save money…
    Chris Horton is one of those, living on a small property at Yackandandah in northern Victoria.
    When he was building his house four years ago, he was quoted $28,000 to connect to the power grid.
    Instead, for about $22,000, he set up a modest three-kilowatt solar PV array.
    “We were sort of gobsmacked,” he said.
    “The house is only 200 metres from an existing power supply pole, but they said they’d have to put up another pole. That was $25,000 and then there were associated connection costs.”…
    ***He worries about the lack of foresight by governments.
    “I think critical is something of an understatement. There’s very little incentive now for grid connect and there should be and there’s a steady ramping up of costs to basically to go renewable or part renewable.”
    Ernst and Young’s power and utility advisor, Stuart Hartley, says energy retailers need to look to the future and overseas, as the sector is undergoing rapid change.
    “For instance, they could well become providers of solar PV batteries via leasing arrangements.”
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-10-13/regional-power-bills/5804610?&section=news

    google the Index & you will see the hundreds of MSM outlets that give space to this push for renewables every quarter:

    Ernst & Young Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index
    Established in 2003, our global quarterly publication ranks 40 countries on the attractiveness of their renewable energy investment and deployment opportunities, based on a number of macro, energy market and technology-specific indicators.
    http://www.ey.com/UK/en/Industries/Cleantech/Renewable-Energy-Country-Attractiveness-Index

    00

  • #
    Davet916

    I know Earth’s magnetic field deflects or absorbs solar radiation thus protecting us from annihilation. Does the sun’s magnetic field regulate the amount of radiation sent our way? If so, could an increase in the strength of the field cause a reduction in radiation sufficient to bring on an ice age or quick freezing on Earth?

    I’m having difficulty accounting for the rapid freezing of mammoths, other mammals and fish frozen while swimming without trying to get under the ice as they normally would.

    Thanks,

    Davet916
    Sacramento, CA

    10

  • #
    pat

    ***just a distraction, says Labor:

    12 Oct: Brisbane Times: Natalie Bochenski: Solar tariff scheme bigger bungle than health payroll: Newman
    Campbell Newman said the former Labor government’s solar power bonus scheme was a bigger bungle than the infamous health payroll fiasco.
    The Premier announced on Sunday that $3.4 billion from asset leases would be quarantined to reduce average household power bills by $577 over five years.
    The deal was dependent on the LNP’s re-election in 2015, and would be achieved by restructuring bills so that the government paid the 44 cent per kilowatt hour solar feed-in tariff currently passed on to customers by the energy companies.
    No new solar power users are able access the scheme, which expires in 2028…
    Mr Newman said this was three times more than the $1.25 billion it would ultimately cost taxpayers to fix the health payroll system, which floundered on implementation in 2010.
    “I think the feed-in tariff was a bigger public policy debacle that has cost people,” he said.
    “If government doesn’t spend your money wisely, you actually pay, so debt that’s accumulated by the former Labor government really hurts us in our daily lives.”
    Opposition leader Annastasia Palaszczuk said the 44 cent feed in solar tariff had a purpose.
    “Labor was always looking at diversification and encouraging people to have other options, including solar,” she said.
    “There are a lot of people out there, a lot of mums and dads, a lot of people right across the state that have actually adopted solar panels.”
    ***Ms Palaszczuk described the power bills price cut plan as another distraction…
    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/solar-tariff-scheme-bigger-bungle-than-health-payroll-newman-20141012-1152wu.html

    00

  • #
     D o u g   C o t t o n 

    The required net energy flow into the Venus surface while its temperature is rising from 732K to 737K during 4 months of sunlight is not from radiation but rather from convection down through the troposphere and thence by conduction into the hotter surface. What you have not come to grips with is the fact that the state of thermodynamic equilibrium (which the Second Law says will evolve) involves all forms of energy including gravitational potential energy. The Clausius (“hot to cold”) statement is merely a corollary of the Second Law having certain prerequisites, namely that gravitational potential energy be held constant. So “hot to cold” is only always true in a horizontal plane, not in a vertical plane in a planet’s troposphere. Think through the rest yourself, for then you’ll understand it better, or read my book “Why It’s Not Carbon Dioxide After All” because the same process happens on Earth and this obviates  any need for concern over GH gases. It is not back radiation supplying the missing energy into the surface: it is non-radiative heat transfer.

    10

  • #
    pat

    Josh – a lawyer, according to his Guardian profile – is somewhat fixated on food!

    13 Oct: Guardian: Josh Bornstein: An apology from Australia to the rest of the world is now warranted
    It almost feels as if the Enlightenment never reached our shores – and climate policy is but one victim of the malaise
    Australia was once a leader in dealing with climate change; seven years after ratifying the Kyoto protocol, it is now something approaching an international pariah.
    This is how the New York Times responded to the scrapping of the carbon price scheme:
    “At a time when president Obama is seeking emissions limits” BLAH BLAH…
    Not too put too fine a point on it, since the election of the Abbott government in November 2013, Australian politics has become fruitier than a tarte tatin. Nuttier than a pecan pie. It feels as if the Enlightenment never reached these shores…
    An explanation to the world, if not an apology, is warranted…
    Prime minister Abbott once famously described climate science as “crap”; he typifies a discernible demographic trend in his country. For white men aged 50 and over, climate change skepticism seems to be our new national sport, perhaps even more popular than golf…
    Why has the Australian body politic removed its head and replaced it with a pumpkin?…
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/oct/13/an-apology-from-australia-to-the-rest-of-the-world-is-now-warranted

    10

  • #
    pat

    Greg Hunt is listed as a speaker. lists all the Reuters Climate Summits for 2014. how invested in CAGW is the MSM?

    .pdf: 2 pages: Reuters: Global Climate Change Summit, October 13-16, 2014 – Various Cities
    SPEAKERS…(includes Greg Hunt)…
    Through a series of closed-session interviews with Reuters journalists, the Summit will generate exclusive news and investable insights available first only to Thomson Reuters clients.
    http://share.thomsonreuters.com/assets/summits/Reuters_Global_Climate_Change_Summit_2014_Access_to_exclusives_for_clients.pdf

    12 Oct: US Dept of Defense: Climate Change Can Affect Security Environment, Hagel Says
    By John D. Banusiewicz
    Providing a preview to a key topic he’ll discuss during a security conference that begins tomorrow, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel yesterday described how climate change can affect the security environment.
    Speaking at a news conference in Santiago, Chile, after a meeting with government leaders there, Hagel said climate change can have a significant effect on the security environment, noting that as sea levels rise, so can potential threats.
    “When there is any natural disaster event that occurs, there always is some element of a security risk — law and order, individuals attempting to take advantage of those catastrophes, adjusting to shifts in security requirements,” he said.
    Nations will compete for natural resources
    The secretary cited the Arctic as an example…
    Hagel, who is on a six-day, three-nation trip to South America, said he will discuss the relationship between climate change and security in more detail during the Conference of the Defense Ministers of the Americas, which begins tomorrow in Arequipa, Peru.
    http://www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=123393

    00

  • #
     D o u g   C o t t o n 

     
    THIS IS CRITICALLY IMPORTANT INFORMATION

    In a perfectly insulated sealed tall vertical cylinder with 80% pure nitrogen and 20% pure oxygen (closely approximating dry air) the Second Law of Thermodynamics can be used to explain why a density gradient and a temperature gradient will evolve as the state of thermodynamic equilibrium is approached. When that state is reached, the addition of new thermal energy at the top of the cylinder, even though it may not raise the temperature there above that at the base of the cylinder, will result in the transfer of thermal energy from the top downwards to warmer regions until a new state of thermodynamic equilibrium is attained having the same temperature gradient as the initial state but a higher overall level because the new energy has been uniformly dispersed. This is how the energy absorbed from solar radiation at the top of the tropospheres of Earth, Uranus, Venus and other planets moves downwards towards warmer regions. In effect, gravity has trapped thermal energy over the life of the planet.

     

    30

  • #
     D o u g   C o t t o n 

    THE MOST IMPORTANT COMMENT YOU WILL EVER READ ON CLIMATE CHANGE

    What you all need to understand is that radiation transmits electro-magnetic energy. There are no molecules involved in the path, no kinetic energy and thus no thermal energy. Thermal energy in the source raises an electron between energy states and it then falls back emitting a photon. If and only if that photon exceeds in energy anything that the target itself can emit then its energy can be converted back to thermal energy, and so we get the impression that thermal energy has transferred from a hotter source to a cooler target. If the photon has insufficient energy it just becomes a part of the target’s “quota” of radiation as per its Planck function. Because of this, every single one-way passage of radiation obeys the Second Law and can never cause entropy to decrease.

    Hence in a planet’s troposphere radiation only ever transfers thermal energy this way from a hotter source to a cooler target. Hence such energy never gets transferred by radiation up the temperature gradient from the upper troposphere to the warmer surface.

    However, diffusion via molecular collisions involves molecules upon which gravity acts and, as most can understand, gravity forms a density gradient which is what the Second Law of Thermodynamics indicates will happen, because that density gradient represents the state of thermodynamic equilibrium which the Second Law says will evolve. Now go to my comment which explains how, in a tall cylinder, new thermal energy at the top can and will be diffused downwards when the thermodynamic equilibrium is disturbed and needs to be restored. The necessity for such transfers is very obvious on Venus and Uranus, but it also explains most of the surface warming on Earth, and explains why there is no radiative GH effect.

    Water vapour and carbon dioxide do not warm: they cool because their radiative properties work against the gravitationally-induced temperature gradient. Absolutely all climate change relates to natural cycles, the most relevant having periodicity of about 1000 years and 60 years. We are currently n the middle of 30 years of cooling by the 60 years cycle, but the 1000 year cycle still has 50 to 100 years of warming by about 0.4 degree in total I estimate. Thereafter the world can expect 500 years of cooling.

    00

  • #
  • #
    David Wood

    I wonder how much of the “gold-plating” of electricity networks is due to the infrastructure required to collect low grade power from wind and solar farms. Also is any of such costs is directly charged, or eveb charged at all, to the wind farm owners?

    10

    • #
      Leo Morgan

      David, my understanding is that the ‘gold plating’ is political fake marketing from beginning to end.
      The story I heard is that for political popularity, the Gillard government imposed draconian reliability guarentees upon electricity suppliers. In exchange for accepting this regulation, they were offered a one hundred and fifty percent tax credit for their reliability expenditure.
      The government was then dumbfounded as businesses reacted rationally to the incentives they’d created.
      “Plate the networks with gold. You get gold and a half back from the government!”
      This folly raised electricity prices as much again as the carbon tax did. The government was discussing an investigation into electricity pricing before it was kicked out, priimarily to see if it could cast the blame anywhere apart from itself.
      I admit my account is anecdotal, from someone who was not a fan of that government. But I find it plausible, and believe its true. If I’m wrong, please let me know.

      00

  • #
     D o u g   C o t t o n 

    Set up parallel mirrors and shine a torch through a small hole in one. Does the light get brighter and brighter as it bounces back and forth? No. And neither does the radiative flux that enters Earth’s atmosphere get stronger and stronger as it bounces back and forth between the surface and the atmosphere, supposedly delivering more flux out of the base of the troposphere and into the surface than the flux which entered the atmosphere in the first place. But that’s what the fancy K-T cum IPCC back radiation diagrams show and the IPCC authors brainwash gullible people into believing, just like they want you to believe water vapour warms dry regions with 1% WV by about 10 or 12 degrees and moist regions with 4% WV by about 40 or 50 degrees. Actually, real world data shows it cools.

    10

  • #
    gai

    I am afraid floundering Flanners has just jumped onto another United Nations boat. The Biodiversity Treaty or ‘Rewilding’

    They have been quitely releasing wolves and black (melanistic) jaguars in my area (N.C. USA) The release of the black jags is denied as are all the sightings so that may have been done by the Rewilding Institute/Big Cat Rescue/Ted Turner without permission from the Feds.

    See my comment if it ever gets out of moderation:
    http://joannenova.com.au/2014/10/weekend-unthreaded-52/#comment-1589361

    Also http://bigcatrescue.org/jaguar-facts/

    00

  • #
     D o u g   C o t t o n 

    To all readers:

    Most people don’t understand convection and why it can just as easily go downwards in a planet’s troposphere as upwards. Disregarding radiation for the moment, an ideal non-radiating gas (say 80% pure nitrogen and 20% pure oxygen) in calm conditions (or even in a tall, sealed and perfectly insulated cylinder) tends towards the state of thermodynamic equilibrium, as the Second Law of Thermodynamics dictates it must do, increasing entropy until a maximum entropy state is attained. Such a state can have no unbalanced energy potentials, this being obvious because if it did then entropy could still increase as work could be done.

    Now, that is why we observe a density gradient in a vertical cylinder in a gravitational field. Gravity acts on molecules in flight between collisions. So-called hydrostatic equilibrium is exactly the same as thermodynamic equilibrium. You can’t have any equilibrium until you have maximum entropy within the constraints of the isolated system, of course.

    The density gradient forms because more molecules are needed at the base of the column than at the top in order to maintain mechanical equilibrium. This is because molecules going downwards gain kinetic energy, just as does a stone when falling. But temperature is proportional to the mean kinetic energy of the molecules, and for there to be no unbalanced energy potentials, the additional gravitational potential energy per molecule at the top must be offset by an equal reduction in kinetic energy. Hence the same process whereby gravity forms a density gradient also forms a temperature gradient which we derive simply by equating PE lost with KE gained: M.g.dH = M.Cp.dT so that dT/dH=g/Cp.
    as explained in an earlier comment above.

    Now, because the sloping thermal plane is really the state of thermodynamic equilibrium it acts like the level surface of a lake when new rain (thermal energy absorbed) occurs in some region of the lake (troposphere) and that new water (thermal energy) spreads out in all accessible directions away from the source of new water or thermal energy. This is simply because the extra kinetic energy in the warmed molecules causes net movement away from the source as these molecules collide with adjacent ones. But remember, it occurs in all accessible directions, so it can mean that thermal energy moves downwards to warmer regions provided that all it is doing is bringing about a new state of thermodynamic equilibrium after the previous state was disturbed.

    When there is such a disturbance to the state of thermodynamic equilibrium due to the addition of new thermal energy, then, we observe convection away from that source. So if the Earth’s surface is warmed one sunny morning in a particular region, the convection appears to go only upwards into the air. But it also goes downwards in the oceans and energy also goes downwards by conduction into the surface, so the outer layer of rocks gets warmed for example. But if air is warmed by the Sun in the upper troposphere there can be downwards heat transfer, even through the clouds and on down to the surface, which can thus get warmed even when there is total cloud cover.

    The temperature at the base of a planet’s troposphere is determined primarily by radiating temperature and the gravitationally induced temperature gradient. Radiating molecules have a temperature-levelling effect and thus reduce the temperature gradient a little. The resulting temperature at the base of the troposphere supports the surface temperature by slowing or stopping the cooling n the early pre-dawn hours.

    10

  • #

    We are slowly inching towards fusion power.

    Time to look for a new cause, CAGW comrades.

    00

  • #
     D o u g   C o t t o n 

    As explained by Josef Loschmidt in the 19th century, the temperature gradient -g/Cp evolves by diffusion. When a long sealed insulated cylinder with 80% pure nitrogen and 20% pure oxygen is rotated about its centre the top gets cooler and the bottom gets hotter as energy is redistributed (not lost or gained) and entropy increases to the maximum accessible level. That state is thermodynamic equilibrium.

    This is all well confirmed empirically. Until people understand this, they will never understand how the required energy gets down into planetary surfaces, crusts, mantles and cores. Solar energy supports all such temperatures by downward convection, which includes diffusion and advection. That is what you don’t yet understand, but it’s fact and you won’t learn it in climatology classes.

     

    00