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Solar effects seem to shift wind and rainfall patterns over last 3000 years in Chile

A team of researchers looked at the solar influence on Southern Hemisphere Westerly Winds (SWW). These winds influence rainfall patterns and ocean currents in the Southern Hemisphere. Varma et al infer rainfall patterns by looking at iron deposits in marine sediments near Chile, which are apparently higher during drier conditions and lower during wetter times. They compared these to both Beryllium (10Be) and Carbon-14 (14C) which they use to estimate solar activity.

The end result is they find that the westerly winds shift northwards towards the equator during lower solar activity, and conversely move southwards towards the poles during higher solar activity. The shifting wind patterns move the rainfall. An effect is apparent in records for the last 3,000 years.

In graph a below, 10Be (solar activity) and Fe (rainfall) have a decent correlation coefficient (r) of 0.45, while the 14C  (solar activity) and Fe (rainfall) correlation in b has a lower correlation (r) of 0.21. Varma et al say:

“the large correlation coefficient for 10Be would suggest that ca. 20% (i.e., r2) of late Holocene rainfall and hence SWW variability could be attributable to solar forcing.”

They conclude that the current models don’t give the sun a large enough role.

“…we propose that the role of the sun in modifying Southern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation patterns has probably been underestimated in model simulations of past climate change.

Fig. 2. Reconstructions of precipitation and hence, the position of the SWW (based on the GeoB3313-1 iron record) versus solar activity for the late Holocene. (a) Solar activity based on 10Be (Vonmoos et al., 2006), (b) solar activity based on 14C (Solanki et al., 2004). The time series have been linearly detrended and standardized. The bold curves show 100-year running means and the thin curves show the unsmoothed data. A lower content of iron stands for wetter conditions, suggesting northward shifted SWW (Lamy et al., 2001). Conversely, a higher content of iron reflects drier conditions essentially due to southward shifted SWW. Pearson correlation coefficients (r) were calculated from the unsmoothed data. 95% confidence intervals (in brackets) were calculated using a bootstrap method, where autocorrelation has been taken into account (Mudelsee, 2003).

Note that all this has the caveat that correlation is not causation. We don’t understand the mechanisms involved. Then there is that slightly awkward point that correlation does not hold up for records older than 3000 years (it is “close to zero”), and Varma et al wonder whether the dates are inaccurate for the older records which could explain the lack of correlation.  Hmm. Three thousand years is a long time.

Speculation about possible mechanisms

Varma et al talk of mechanisms that amplify the solar effect through both “top down” and bottom up” processes, and think that both types of mechanisms are needed to generate these significant shifts in response to very small changes in solar TSI.

The top down mechanism:

“…a “top-down” mechanism, which influences the troposphere via stratospheric ozone responses to variations in ultraviolet radiation, has been proposed by Haigh (1996). In her model, increase in ultraviolet radiation and resulting rising ozone concentration, induced heating in the lower stratosphere during the Southern Hemisphere summer. As a consequence, strengthened stratosphere easterly winds caused the tropospheric subtropical westerly jets to move poleward, the tropical Hadley cell to broaden, and the SWW to move southward.

Valma point out that 70% of the shortwave incoming solar energy (that is not reflected back to space) ends up at the surface, and they looked at models of the “bottom up” possibilities:

As expected, a general surface cooling is induced by the TSI reduction (Fig. 7a). In addition to this general cooling, a more pronounced reduction in surface temperature is observed in the mid latitudes of, e.g., the central South Pacific sector (Fig. 7a, c, and d). By means of general atmospheric  circulation modelling and scaling arguments, it has recently been shown that a reduction of the mean global surface temperature decreases the width of the Hadley cell (Frierson et al., 2007) and shifts the eddy-driven surface westerlies that result from the balance between vertically integrated eddy momentum convergence and surface drag towards the equator (Lu et al., 2010). Since the reduction in TSI is only 0.15%, the global cooling effect is small and additional feedbacks are required to induce a significant change in the westerlies.

One important feedback is associated with enhanced Ekman divergence and resulting upwelling (vertical velocity) around 40 S in austral summer (Fig. 7b). The upwelled cold water is transported northward in the Ekman surface layer, leading to enhanced SST cooling just north of 40 S (Fig. 7c). This cooling results in a meridional SST gradient anomaly that lies very close to (or just equatorward of) the subtropical jet. It has been shown that such an anomalous subtropical surface temperature gradient causes a strengthening of the jet along with an equatorward shift of the eddy-driven surface westerlies (Brayshaw et al., 2008; Lu et al., 2010), thus providing a positive feedback on the initial SWW shift in our simulations.

In austral winter, the coldest surface temperature anomalies are found around Antarctica (Fig. 7d), mainly due to increased sea-ice concentrations (up to 7%) reducing ocean-atmosphere heat fluxes and increasing the surface albedo. The resulting stronger meridional surface temperature gradient at high latitudes, however, is  accompanied by a poleward shift of the surface westerlies (Chen et al., 2010; Lu et al., 2010), due to enhanced high-latitude baroclinic wave generation. This results in a winter SWW shift that is opposite to the other seasons.

Abstract

The Southern Hemisphere Westerly Winds (SWW) constitute an important zonal circulation that influences large-scale precipitation patterns and ocean circulation. Variations in their intensity and latitudinal position have been suggested to exert a strong influence on the CO2 budget in the Southern Ocean, thus making them a potential factor affecting the global climate. In the present study, the possible influence of solar forcing on SWW variability during the Holocene is addressed. It is shown that a high-resolution iron record from the Chilean continental slope (41° S), which is interpreted to reflect changes in the position of the SWW, is significantly correlated with reconstructed solar activity during the past 3000 years. In addition, solar sensitivity experiments with a comprehensive global climate model (CCSM3) were carried out to study the response of SWW to solar variability. Taken together, the proxy and model results suggest that centennial-scale periods of lower (higher) solar activity caused equatorward (southward) shifts of the annual mean SWW.

h/t The HockeySchtick

REFERENCE

Varma, V., Prange, M., Lamy, F., Merkel, U., and Schulz, M.: Solar-forced shifts of the Southern Hemisphere Westerlies during the Holocene, Clim. Past, 7, 339-347, doi:10.5194/cp-7-339-2011, 2011. [abstract]  [PDF]

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Solar effects seem to shift wind and rainfall patterns over last 3000 years in Chile, 9.0 out of 10 based on 39 ratings

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56 comments to Solar effects seem to shift wind and rainfall patterns over last 3000 years in Chile

  • #
    Andrew McRae

    Using UV as the intermediate mechanism is an interesting spin. I would have thought the Svensmark Effect would be the mechanism, but hey, the more hypotheses the better I guess.
    If it affects the water temperature around Peru/Chile, does that persist long enough to make its way over to the East Coast of Australia in the global ocean currents? Plenty of time on that journey for the effect to diminish so not clear if the water-based effects can affect south-east Australian climate.
    But the displacement of the latitude of the westerly jet streams has to be a global effect right?
    So then the UV solar effect in the above paper should affect some region of the Australian climate too.

    Which brings us back to present events…

    When the CSIRO told a Royal Commission in 2007 they could run their models to predict the Forest Fire Danger Index about 43 years into the future, did they take into account the imminent drop in solar activity to predict the effect of increased rainfall on fuel loads? Darned if I can find it.

    But it’s all kosher though, because

    The patterns were scaled for the years 2020 and 2050 using IPCC estimates of global warming for those years, i.e. 0.4-1.0°C by 2020 and 0.7-2.9°C by 2050.

    Pity the warming hasn’t quite kept up with the 0.3°C per decade they estimated, but that’s just a temporary Pause, the temperature will catch up again soon, promise!

    Yes all the natural variation patterns are under control in CSIRO science:

    The modelled changes from the various scenarios are then projected on to the observed daily time series of temperature, rainfall, wind and relative humidity from 1973 to early 2007. This methodology provides an estimate, based on the observed past weather, of what a realistic time series affected by climate change may look like, assuming no change in year-to-year variability beyond that observed in the past 34 years.

    Except that the naturally occurring 60-year ocean cycle has 30 years of warming and 30 years of cooling, with the last warming phase beginning in 1972, which means they modelled “realistic” natural variation based 85% on the warming phase and sampled virtually none of what normal weather looks like in the cooling phase. Some normality!

    And this newly reported effect of solar activity on wind and rainfall…nope, the words “sun” and “solar” do not appear even once in CSIRO’s description!

    Don’t worry, Lithgow, you’re safe in the hands of “settled science”.

    280

    • #
      Bloke down the pub

      Andrew McRae
      October 25, 2013 at 4:28 am · Reply
      Using UV as the intermediate mechanism is an interesting spin. I would have thought the Svensmark Effect would be the mechanism, but hey, the more hypotheses the better I guess.

      And if the effect of reduced uv all works in the same direction, then it makes the IPCC’s ignoring of solar input to climate change look all the more ridiculous.

      90

      • #
        Kevin Lohse

        “The Neglected Sun”. is your friend.

        80

      • #
        sophocles

        The Sun is a variable star. This planet orbits its parent star deep
        within its atmosphere. It’s sort of obvious it’s going to have noticable
        effects on our climate.

        Svensmark’s discovery is but one of an increasing number of
        discoveries of solar influences. His hypothesis seems to be
        an important control.

        And here’s another one I’m currently reading:

        The interplanetary magnetic field influences
        mid-latitude surface atmospheric pressures
        M M Lam, G Chisham and M P Freeman

        It can be downloaded freely, the link is on the hockeyschtick
        site (quite a few pages in as it’s now an `old’ paper for that
        site). It’s about the Solar influence on our weather.

        Kevin: has the English translation of The Neglected Sun reached
        the bookshops now? I’ve been waiting for it … must have a look.

        10

  • #
    Mark D.

    Wadya know, more new science telling us that it’s not so well understood after all. I await the bleats of trolls, soon enough, to remind us that it’s ENSO and hidden heat……

    80

  • #
    Ken Stewart

    The westerlies (and the sub tropical ridge) further south over the last 40-50 years has resulted in decreased rainfall and higher temps for SW Western Australia. This year the ST ridge has been a long way north, resulting in blocking highs, low rainfall, and higher temps in eastern Australia, but very high rainfall for Perth. Mixed blessings. This is an interesting hypothesis indeed. I wonder if there is then a link with weaker trade winds leading to increased El Nino conditions when the westerlies and ST ridge are further south during low solar activity? Next few decades should be interesting….

    110

    • #

      I’m just south of Perth and all this past rainfall season, the rain has been falling onto the SW-facing front door of my house.

      That’s a change. I’ve been living here since 1988 and until 2011 for sure; the rain “always” came from about NW to W.

      60

      • #
        Alan

        Bernd
        Perhaps the increased CO2 causing the “extreme weather” has rotated your house that little bit – hey gets the blame for everything else ;)

        30

      • #
        Kevin Lohse

        Put it down to continental drift :)

        20

      • #
        scaper...

        I was under the impression that IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) had much influence on the WA rainfall and some believe it effects the Pacific but glad to be proved errant.

        An interesting place is WA. When you drive into WA through the Nullarbor a second escarpment is observed that appears to be the Bight in times of yore. A rough guess of a previous sea level of over 100M.

        The Treeless Plain in SA would have been the inflow for the inland sea as there is no elevated landform.

        Also observed the flora, same genus but vast variation of specie types that indicate adaption and in the scope of things, still a work in progress.

        Was going to take samples to sate my curiosity under the guise of a round of golf on the Nullarbor Links which is the world’s longest golf course (tax deductable of course) but had to get back to Brisbane to protect my own.

        I shall return!

        10

  • #

    [...] Solar effects seem to shift wind and rainfall patterns over last 3000 … Tags: hockey, holocene, king, lower, ocean, Solar, south, Southern, tsi [...]

    00

  • #
    handjive

    12 September 2013: NASA last week confirmed their prediction that the current solar cycle 24 is likely to be the weakest since 1906.

    Intriguingly, the current solar cycle shows a striking similarity with solar cycle 5 which was also very weak, with the same double peak as the current cycle, and ran from approximately the mid 1790s to around 1810

    Solar cycles 5 and 6 were so unusual that they were named the Dalton solar minimum after meteorologist John Dalton and coincided with a period of increasingly cold winters and poor summers.

    This type of climate is a result of a jet stream that’s positioned further south than normal – caused, it’s thought at least in part, by the behaviour of the sun.

    The mechanism as to why weak solar cycles may affect the position of the jet stream is poorly understood.

    80

    • #
      crakar24

      HJ,

      Its interesting when you do the math, the gleissberg cycle is about 179 years long so we go through low cycles SC 5,6,7 and then we go through high cycles SC 20,21,22 and now we are going back into a slump.

      All this is driver by the angular momentum of the planets (hence the cycle) now thats climate change.

      The drop in UV can be up to 10% during these highs and lows however the IPCC in their wisdom did not look at this event just purely at TSI.

      141

  • #
    RoHa

    Any correlation with small earthquakes?

    00

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      Only greenies stamping their feet out of frustration.

      30

    • #
      PhilJourdan

      Ask Danny Glover

      10

    • #
      crakar24

      I did read a study once that sugeested an increase in small earth quakes during solar minimums but i lost it, it might have been due to decreasing magnetic fields and the like.

      I do believe our very own Jimbo “james” Hansen was a co author, that might help someone when searching for it.

      Cheers

      10

      • #
        AndyG55

        Hansen might have done some reasonable science once.

        but then his brain got infected by the warmist bug, and he went haywire !

        10

  • #
    Albert

    I saw a BBC doco some weeks ago that showed coastal plains of Peru changed from forest to grasslands to desert. The Earth is always on the move

    10

  • #
    tom0mason

    “…top-down” mechanism, which influences the troposphere via stratospheric ozone responses to variations in ultraviolet radiation, has been proposed by Haigh (1996). In her model, increase in ultraviolet radiation and resulting rising ozone concentration, induced heating in the lower stratosphere during the Southern Hemisphere summer.

    Erl Happ and Carl Wolk have some interesting ideas on the effects of ozone and more at http://climatechange1.wordpress.com/

    10

  • #
    King Geo

    “The end result is they find that the westerly winds shift northwards towards the equator during lower solar activity, and conversely move southwards towards the poles during higher solar activity. The shifting wind patterns move the rainfall. An effect is apparent in records for the last 3,000 years.”

    This case study in Chile makes a lot of since – it reinforces what UK’s Piers Corbyn [WeatherAction] and Stephen Wilde have been saying, ie during “Solar Minimums” the “Jet Stream” moves towards the Equator. Given that the next GM & LIA is imminent, expect this to impact on Oz’s Climate – “wetter & cooler” weather [extended winter weather pattern] for our South West – frequent cold fronts extending from April to October resulting in very good rainfall figures – the farmers will be rejoicing. On the other hand the late Spring/Summer/early Autumn “tropical rainfall season” will contract so expect lower rainfall figures in the NW(WA), NT, QLD and northern NSW.

    30

  • #
    StuartMcL

    They had to get it in somehow, didn’t they:

    ” a strong influence on the CO2 budget in the Southern Ocean, thus making them a potential factor affecting the global climate”

    30

  • #
    Eddie Sharpe

    Emote, emote, my kingdom for a moat.
    Imagining a future in which our grandchildren don’t all get jobs sitting around emoting about the waywardness of the Wotld in extravagantly funded series of conferences.

    90

  • #
    Bulldust

    O/T but this article on the Drum on the disturbing trend of un-reproducibility in scientific (biomedical) research:

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-10-25/scott-selling-science/5043620

    Obviously this casts doubt on certain researchers and the incentives to play the system etc… What about climate science, eh?

    My comment in relation to a peer review post:

    Proper peer review is effective at weeding out problems with submitted papers. The problem in smallish fields or politicised fields (mentioning no names *COUGH* climatescience *COUGH*) is that peer review can distort into “pal review” at which point all credibility is lost.

    When big grant money or industry money is involved, the incentives for distortion are greatest. Freakonomics shows copious examples of how humans pervert systems for their own gains when incentives are involved … scientists are certainly not immune to this, and to pretend otherwise is to be naive. Which isn’t to say that there aren’t saintly types out there, but they don’t need scrutiny and I applaud them.

    I shouldn’t have to quote the ClimateGate email about “redefining peer review” should I?

    Yes, i am _that_ Bulldust.

    * Curious to see whether this makes it past the mods.

    90

  • #
    Thumbnail

    Hi Jo!
    I wanted to let your readers know about a new Canadian musical talent eh.

    Can we help them get to Hockey Night in Canada?

    One band member has a most impressive beard!!

    10

    • #
      ExWarmist

      The comments section has allowed sceptical comments – maybe someone should take screen shots just to prove that it has happened.

      LOL – at the high number of sceptical vs warmist comments.

      20

  • #
    Sunray

    I am in big trouble, I actually understand the present situation and the inconvenient information release.

    10

  • #
    edwina

    This may be a tiresome repeat of what I have written before. But a famous Australian long range forecaster, Inigo Jones, made predictions for the latter 19th century and early 20th century. Farmers reckoned he was almost always right.He predicted the Federation drought and the preceding repetitive floods in QLD. “Normal meteorologists” rejected his advice.That is, he based a lot of forecasts on sunspot activity or inactivity which was thought of no importance. Unfortunately he died before imparting his complicated calculations and procedures to others.

    10

  • #
    BilB

    This paper makes exactly the point that I have been driving. More energy in the system changes climate through increased atmospheric circulation which envigorates the Hadley Cells to marginally reposition the descending zone further poleward. In the so doing this alters the weather patterns in those zones to affect features such as bush fires.

    The argued solar variation of 2 watts/sq metre is just that, a fluctuation.

    Global Warming, on the other hand adds a further 3.7 watts per sq metre constant energy increase from increased CO2 buildup in the atmosphere alone. Much of this energy is taken up in the oceans upper 700 metres where it arrives over the seas to further exacerbate the atmospheric stirring with increase evaporation driving moisture into the atmosphere. Where the extra energy at surface level occurs over land then this serves to locally heat the atmosphere causing heat waves and accentuating drought where the high pressure systems occur and linger.

    It seems that we are in furious agreement.

    00

  • #
    pat

    SMH covering up for NBC’s web-related error, with no writer’s attribution anywhere on the page:

    25 Oct: SMH: Alarming US map of Australian bushfires explained
    American network NBC has been ridiculed on the web this week for graphically misrepresenting the bushfires in Australia, but it turns out they weren’t as wrong as it seemed.
    They just made the flames too big…
    NBC may have sourced the data from a bushfire monitoring service such as Geoscience Australia’s online tool, Sentinel…
    NBC’s controversial graphic ignored the finer details on the fire hotspots map.
    Dr Lewis said their choice of display “wasn’t really appropriate”.
    He explained that “each fire comes up as one small spot on the Sentinel website”, while on NBC’s report “they put a very big flaming icon over each of these little spots – which makes them look as if they’ve all joined up”…
    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/alarming-us-map-of-australian-bushfires-explained-20131025-2w6vi.html

    News Ltd goes for some gentle mocking:

    25 Oct: News Ltd: Anthony Sharwood: American network NBC publishes map showing the whole of Australia is on fire. Oops
    AMERICA, the nation which gave the world 307 Nobel laureates, has today shown that its media is about as smart as one of its famously dopey teen beauty pageant contestants.
    In a bizarre map produced by NBC News, pretty much the whole of Australia is depicted as being ablaze this week…
    At any given time, the map will show hazard reduction burns, bushfires which pose no threat to life or property, plus of course much more serious bushfires like the ones we’ve seen this week.
    They’ve taken every fire on the Sentinel map and assumed they are all part of the current emergency…

    http://www.news.com.au/technology/american-network-nbc-publishes-map-showing-the-whole-of-australia-is-on-fire-oops/story-e6frfrnr-1226746114107

    00

  • #
    pat

    COMPARE THE SMH EXCUSE FOR NBC TO THE FOLLOWING. THIS IS SMH’s FOURTH PIECE ON THE SUBJECT. THERE ARE LINKS TO THE OTHER THREE STORIES ON GREG HUNT/WIKIPEDIA BELOW THE COMMENTS, INCLUDING A NASTY VIDEO BY TIM DOLDISSEN, MOCKING ABBOT & HUNT & CLAIMING SOME AUSTRALIAN SCIENTISTS, ENVIRONMENT GROUPS & POLITICIANS THINK A LINK SHOULD BE MADE!

    25 Oct: SMH: Tony Wright: Wikipedia’s verdict on Greg Hunt: ‘terrible at his job’
    Anyone with an internet connection can look up Greg Hunt on Wikipedia.
    The entry for a few delicious minutes on Thursday included the following pearl: “Since the 2013 election, Hunt has become the Minister for the Environment. He has already proven to be terrible at his job, to no surprise”…
    Indeed, if you’d clicked on Mr Hunt’s entry a bit earlier, you might have come across the following:
    “He [Hunt] is notorious for using Wikipedia to conduct research on environmental issues on Wikipedia despite having access to a vast bureaucracy staffed by some of the finest and most dedicated minds in the nation, like some total turd. Critics concede that his 1990 Honours thesis on the necessity of a carbon tax was probably more academically rigorous
    than the manner in which he comports himself as one of the most powerful people in the country, but others defend their characterisation of the Environment Minister as an utter weiner.”
    This no longer appears on the site, having been excised with some haste. Mr Hunt or his staff and supporters, as anyone who searches the Wikipedia site can discover, appear to spend inordinate amounts of time frantically revising and removing unhelpful, uncomplimentary and occasionally defamatory
    insertions of material concerning the Minister’s alleged life and times.
    Wikipedia has now disabled editing of Hunt’s page by unregistered users.
    The reference to Mr Hunt consulting Wikipedia on matters environmental, however, is accurate, more or less.
    We know this because Mr Hunt has told a fair slice of the world that he puts his faith in Wikipedia.
    “I looked up what Wikipedia said just to see what the rest of the world thought,” he advised the BBC on Wednesday when put on the spot about whether there might be a link between Australia’s latest bushfires and climate change.
    “It opened up with the fact that, ‘bushfires in Australia are frequently occurring events during the hotter months of the year due to Australia’s mostly hot, dry, climate’.”
    That settles that, then. Ground-breaking research. Who would ever have imagined?…
    Research is a contestable field, as Mr Hunt’s own career, both academic and political, attests.
    Why, in 1990 he won a university prize for his own thesis entitled “a tax to make polluters pay”…
    That old treatise has been replaced by his professed faith that a carbon tax is a dreadful Labor-Greens plot, and that Tony Abbott’s “direct action” plan is altogether superior.
    A Wikipedia search for direct action on climate change, alas, offers no result. Which may be merciful, for who knows what mischief non-believers might wreak upon it?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/wikipedias-verdict-on-greg-hunt-terrible-at-his-job-20131024-2w34y.html

    10

  • #
    Tim

    Inigo Jones, 1872 – 1954 was an Australian long range weather forecaster who believed that cyclical variations in the activity of the sun, visible as sunspots, controlled the earth’s climate, and that these variations were themselves largely determined by the orbits of Jupiter, Saturn and Uranus. He was condemned as “unscientific” for his emphasis on solar activity as an influence on weather, but he made good long-range forecasts without the help of computer modelling or satellites and got it pretty right. For decades, Aussie farmers planned their planting and harvesting by him.

    There’s nothing much new under the cyclical sunspots.

    10

  • #
    Tim

    Hi edwina #15. Sorry for the tiresome repeat – just noticed your blog.

    00

  • #
    wayne, s. Job

    Our sun much neglected in the climate debate stirs the very heart of our world keeping our core stirred and molten. Sol’s tentacles keep our magnet alive protecting our atmosphere from being stripped and lost by other forces projected by Sol. One has to wonder when sol is the only heat source and life giver we have that we have not taken more notice in recent times of Sol’s impacts.

    It is heartening recently that many have started to twig to the fact that not only is the sun variable, that also our planet is meandering in a merry dance with other elements in our solar system that would include not just gravity connections, but magnet and electrical connections.

    Overriding our merry dance is our sojourn around the galaxy, as we seem to be some what a rogue little system not part of the spiral arms but doing a Sinatra our way.

    Thus we seem to be passengers on a wayward solar system subject to the vagarities of many and varied positive and negative imputs. With a climate system that is an unplumbed heat activated heat pump with water as the refrigerant trying desperately to reach equilibrium, so we have weather, chaotic thou it be. CO2 has an ice cubes chance in hell of making a difference.

    It is nice to see some real science, although it is just a side show to the main event it gives real meaning to science.

    10

  • #

    Similar changes in rain patterns can be seen in the NH, here for Portugal:
    http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2005GL023787/abstract
    Similar reports were available about the Nile delta (Egypt), the Po (Italy) and the Mississippi delta (USA). But the links I had don’t work anymore…

    The main origin indeed seems to be the increase in UV at the maximum solar cycle which gives more ozone in the lower stratosphere and an increase in temperature in that layer mainly in the tropics, which pushes the jetstreams poleward with their accompanied cloud/rain patterns.

    00

  • #

    “The end result is they find that the westerly winds shift northwards towards the equator during lower solar activity, and conversely move southwards towards the poles during higher solar activity. The shifting wind patterns move the rainfall. An effect is apparent in records for the last 3,000 years.”

    I’ve been onto this for a number of years. Latest version here:

    http://www.newclimatemodel.com/new-climate-model/

    10

  • #

    “the increase in UV at the maximum solar cycle which gives more ozone in the lower stratosphere and an increase in temperature in that layer mainly in the tropics which pushes the jetstreams poleward”

    The trouble with that is that overall stratospheric ozone decreased during the active sun of the late 20th century.

    Consequently I had to build my New Climate Model on the basis that although ozone above the tropics and at low levels in the stratosphere does increase when the sun is more active that is more than offset by a reduction of ozone higher up and towards the poles when the sun is more active.

    At present I have the only hypothesis which attempts to deal with that conundrum.

    Meanwhile there has been some data obtained which suggests a reversal of the expected solar effect on ozone creation / destruction above 45km.

    I’m curious as to whether future data will firm up on that.

    10

    • #

      The trouble with that is that overall stratospheric ozone decreased during the active sun of the late 20th century.

      Stephen, I don’t think that the reduction in total ozone did have a huge influence on the jet stream position, as the main warming by UV is in the tropical lower stratosphere and it is the difference in temperature with the poles which drives the jetstreams polewards. Maybe the destruction of ozone, which is mainly at the high latitudes in spring even pushes the temperature difference even higher…

      It is a pitty that several interesting papers disappeared from the net (or were moved), I had one which nicely described the mechanism involved…
      Here another one that describes the connection between stratosphere and troposphere under different solar and AO conditions:
      http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2005GL024393/abstract

      10

      • #
        tom0mason

        Maybe you and Stephen Wilde would find Erl Happ and Carl Wolk have some interesting ideas on the effects of ozone and more at http://climatechange1.wordpress.com/

        00

        • #

          Yes I’m familiar with the admirable work of Erl and Carl.

          However mine differs from theirs in taking account of the apparent reverse sign of the solar effect on ozone above 45km and towards the poles.

          It is their apparent failure to deal with that which makes their scenarios so convoluted.

          As soon as one does adjust the logic to include that phenomenon a lot of the contortions that they have to engage in fall away.

          00

  • #

    Hello Ferdinand.

    The reduction in total ozone was most pronounced towards the poles, hence the panic about the ozone hole.

    Less ozone higher up and above the pole raises tropopause height above the pole at the same time as more ozone lower down and above the tropics pushes the tropopause down so both work together to drive the jets poleward.

    The opposite occurs when the sun is quiet.

    We need both operating together to see a reduction in total ozone when the sun is active and an increase when the sun is inactive.

    If ‘your’ proposal were the complete answer there would be an increase in total ozone when the sun is more active. That is what established climatology expected and when it didn’t happen they blamed CFCs.

    A mistake, I suspect.

    All observed climate change can be dealt with by proposing top down solar and bottom up oceanic effects altering the tropopause height gradient between equator and poles with consequent latitudinal climate zone shifting as a negative system response.

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    Stew Green

    Fair report from BBC Radio ..quotes Gore, & explains the controversy but ends by quoting local residents supporting Abbot : Direct Audio Link
    - BBC Correspondent Prog page

    Jon Donnison is in the Blue Mountains of New South Wales where the wildfires are still raging and there’s a heated debate about how much climate change is to blame;

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    Brian G Valentine

    This is good but needs independent confirmation, outside of the isotopes, before making any serious conclusions.

    The solar activity has to be reflected elsewhere (which it has), but the rainfall has to be independently confirmed.

    Chilean Mountains are perpetually dry, lower total humidity than most desert climates, and changes of fraction of percent average humidity should not be difficult to discern

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    Thomas T.S.Watson

    Chille or Australia, there is a change taking place and it is basically due to the fact that the Earth is orbiting with our Sun which has just gone through a change in time, entering a Negative Magnetic influence from the Milky Way Galaxy. Because of the fact that our Earth has a tag-along effect, it is also under the influences from our Sun’s interaction and from time to time, these sequences can be followed as have been expressed above by other well intrigued science fellows.
    What I am saying is that our seasons are being controlled by the Sun’s magnetic interference which is included within the Sun’s Heliosphere, and as clouds and barometric pressure systems vary, so does our season change, are associated to these interactions, the seasons will change as observed by these changes re-occurring.
    Re Mr Hunts attitude. Yes! I agree he appears to have little understanding of the reality of the eminence variables that are associated to the climate change situations that controls, Earth, and what it is that is putting pressure on human life to change the situation, for he seems to push away comments that there are real and are the controlling factors, being applied; Our Sun, for the Sun is the controlling factor. Not Humans.

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