Yes I’m having a party. : -)
The total seats in the house of Representatives is 150, so when a party gets 76, they win.
UPDATE: 7:28 pm Eastern Time (5:28pm in the West, polls are still open): ABC giving 42 seats for Labor, 72 to the Liberals.
This election will be called soon.
UPDATE: 7:41pm Eastern Time. 43 Labor, 73 Liberal.
Treasurer Wayne Swan looks like holding his seat. 30% counted. Swing against him is 2.5%. The Worlds Greatest Treasurer, who proved so adept at spending other people’s money on things like $800,000 tin sheds will keep his seat. Anyone in charge of the national cheque book can accrue $250bn of debt… spending money is the easy part. Paying it back is another thing entirely.
UPDATE: 7:56pm Labor doing better. Greens get their man.
Labor 48; Liberal 73; Green 1: Other 2
Adam Bandt, sole Green member of the house of Reps elected? again (or as good as) in Melbourne
The ALP / ABC have set expectations so low that Labor will claim anything over 50 seats as a “win”. It helps them put a good spin on a bad loss.
UPDATE 8:20pm: Done deal. Labor 51; Liberal 77 (over the line). Green 1; Other 1. (?)
But all the talk will be about how Labor really did pretty well given the circumstances. Only four weeks ago the polls were 50:50 — it was thought they had a chance. Four weeks before that, polls predicted a wipe-out and Julia Gillard was pictured knitting a kangaroo.
Commenter Bulldust: the AEC virtual tally room: http://vtr.aec.gov.au/
UPDATE: 9:03pm. No win or concession announced yet, but Delingpole gets in early and sends his congratulations.
The ABC meanwhile is finding all kinds of reasons to announce how things are going better than expected for Labor, and the Liberals may lose Sophie Mirabella’s seat (to a conservative independent). The word “Gillard” is a bit like she-who-shall-not-be-named. The ALP have not so much lost as been “vindicated” with their leadership change 9 weeks ago. Of course. The problems are not the policies or the management ability, but just problems with campaigns…
UPDATE 9:50: Rudds concession speech
Never admit defeat. You would think he is planning 2016. This is a man who thinks this result is a temporary aberration. No lessons to learn. He looks relieved and happy (he hasn’t lost his own seat, the carnage is not as bad as predicted yesterday). A child in the room with us, watching him, looks confused and says “who won the election”?
Rudd is resigning. “Won’t contest”.
UPDATE: 10:20 Abbotts Win
While Sky news commentators in the ALP party were talking about the “delusional” and “bizarre” atmosphere in the Labor camp, Abbotts speech had no false triumphalism. He talked of serving for all Australians, of a heavy responsibility, a great honor.
ABC coverage is just amazing. There was no mention that this was the worst result for Labor in 100 years. First preferences for Labor 34%.
Current preferences flow 53% to 47%
Liberal 89 seats
Labor 56 seats
TonyfromOz posts a link for people to view the results as they come in: ABC News 2:4