JoNova

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William Kininmonth: Is it Extreme Weather or Climate Change?

Following in the heatwave theme… William Kinninmonth points out that the long term data on the red hot centre of Australia shows that this January is not unusual.
- Jo.

__________________________________
Letter to the Editor of The Australian

A pattern of extreme weather should not be confused with climate change.

The recent heat wave across much of Central Australia and its occasional extension east and south is a pattern of extreme weather. Climate is the recurring patterns of weather that inure us to such extremes. The climate of Alice Springs is exemplified by 1887, the previously hottest January with an average maximum of 40.7oC. The extreme, nearly 5oC above the long term January average, was made possible by a spell of 11 days over 40oC, a brief respite then another 10 days over 40oC.

Climate change, of course, is a persisting significant departure from the experienced pattern of weather. The current pattern of extreme weather is not outside the envelope of experience that describes Central Australian climate.

William Kininmonth

William Kininmonth headed Australia‘s National Climate Centre at the Bureau of Meteorology from 1986 to 1998.

PS: You may be interested in the pattern of January average temperatures downloaded from the Bureau of Meteorology online archive. The Post Office (PO) site closed in 1953; the airport (A/p) site opened in 1942 and is currently the official Alice Springs meteorological observing station. During the period of overlapping records the airport was, on average, 0.2oC cooler than the Post Office.

 

The current heat has occurred before in Alice Springs. Wait and see what the ave of Jan 2013 brings.

POST NOTE: to clarify “averages”.

The average January temperature was in the context of the daily maximum temperature as used in the letter. The BOM have both max and min tables in their site and ‘average daily temperature’ is usually taken as (max + min)/2. In the context of heat waves people are only interested in max.

William Kininmonth added this in an email Monday morning, but I unfortunately was on holiday…

UPDATE: Back from holiday. Chris Gillham, David Stockwell and others in the BOM had emails waiting for me to point out that “heatwaves” have many and varied definitions, so I dropped the “wave” from the caption, and of course, they are keeping track of Jan 2013 numbers, and while it’s obvious this graph could not possibly have data from Jan 2013 when it was posted on Jan 17, I’ve added the line “wait and see” just to make that clear, especially as this post ages. Even if Jan 2013 in Alice sets a record, this graph (in uncherry-picked entirety) is no friend to those who want to alarm us. As if a four week hot spell is finally “evidence” that 120 years of man-made activities is changing the climate.

For a better idea of what the usual extreme weather in Australia looks like, see the post right before this one.

 

 

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244 comments to William Kininmonth: Is it Extreme Weather or Climate Change?

  • #
    john robertson

    What is this “Extreme Weather”?
    A storm? A 100yr storm?
    Or any gust of wind, warm day or clouds overhead?
    The climate babble is increasing, like a Dilbert Cartoon.
    And to me this blaming weather on the acts of man, is the best example of the alarmists shooting their own feet.
    This Chicken Little tactic is folklore.

    Jo, is there a link to the letter?


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    • #
      Rereke Whakaaro

      A journalist friend of mine (I have odd friends), has defined “extreme weather”, or extreme “anything”, as far as newsworthiness is concerned, as being in the top or bottom two percent of contemporary human experience.

      The people who experienced the recent storm in New York (a category 1, by the time it reached land) would call it extreme if they had never experienced a higher category storm. A foot or so of snow in Southern England is extreme, but is unremarkable in Canada.

      Climate babble has nothing to do with science. It has a lot to do with propaganda and attitude modification.


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      • #
        Kevin Moore

        Which brings to mind the book –

        Myra MacPherson, ‘All Governments Lie’, The Life and Times of Rebel Journalist I F Stone, Lisa Drew/Scribner, New York, 2006.


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      • #
        Grant (NZ)

        I was musing on this very thing this morning.

        I maintain that summers have been getting cooler. I remember as a kid systematically moving across the bed at night to find a cooler spot to sleep (no aircon back then). I also remember long days at the beach and spending hours in the water swimming.

        Now though nights are much cooler and I wouldn’t go in the water for anything like 10 minutes.

        None of the above empirical evidence has anything to do with me having grown up in Northland (NZ) and now living in the Central North Island at 500m above sea level.


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        • #
          Rereke Whakaaro

          … next to a volcanic lake fed from snow melt …?

          Yeah, right!


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        • #
          Alan

          Grant, my experience is the opposite. I also grew up in Northland, moved to Oz +30 yrs ago and now live in Perth and it’s definitely warmed up, especially this Xmas-New Year when the AC broke down and the humidity was about twice normal.


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      • #
        Mark D.

        RW, it is my understanding that Sandy (superstorm) was not a hurricane (not even 1) at landfall. Just a tropical storm.


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        • #
          Rereke Whakaaro

          Yes, you are right, and I was aware of that.

          But I have already had that discussion with several people on the East Coast, who insist that it was a Hurricane before it got close to shore. It seems that the more angst that can be generated, the better.


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        • #
          Albert

          2 metres was from predicted tidal surge and another 2 metres from the moon


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          • #
            Mark D.

            Right enough Albert, My unprofessional but well trained eye notes that the bulk of the damage was caused by water that would have been fairly minimal if not for the moon caused King Tide. The wind had play with infrastructure too but what I saw on news broadcasts were very large very old boulevard trees that toppled over into homes or power lines.

            What will anyone bet that those trees were a “protected species” in all the locations? The Tree Huggers caused these infrastructure damages due to blocking sensible pruning and or removal of overgrown decorative trees.

            Now I like my trees as much or more than the next person but when we consider damages done by nature, we need to analyze what part we set up for failure and not blame it on a relatively non-severe weather events.


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    • #

      I see studying weather being like studying cricket or football. If you look hard enough you can see new records being set all the time. Further, the more you look, the more you will see.
      So in football, you can look at the best teams in terms of points scored; cup wins; final placings (winning the league, top four finish)etc. With modern technology you can also compute completed passes, distance covered by player, shots on target, shots off target etc. etc.
      There is a further analogy. Sport is very partisan. You folks down under cannot accept the fact that England has easily the best cricket team. The best experts commentators on the game all agree that England as the best team. The best experts are of course English, because “we” invented the game and we have a far superior method of analysing the proceedings. We have the most experienced commentators for three reasons. First, the average age of commentators is 85, with a minimum entry qualification being to have played for England prior to 1960; Second is that we have the two requisite conditions for development of world leading experts – 100% radio coverage of 30 hours of a test match and plenty of summer rain meaning you have to develop the ability to talk about next to nothing for hours on end, whilst awaiting the next pitch inspection. Third, we have the BBC, who are able to allocate prodigious amounts of resources to an army of researchers trawling through 150 years of Wisden’s and cricketing memoirs to find the necessary facts should the encyclopeadic memories of the commentators need nourishment.

      Also if one looks hard enough, one can generate verifiable hypotheses that the vast majority of expert commentators will agree upon. Take football. The vast majority of expert commentators agree that the referees are biased in favour of the top teams when awarding penalties. The data “proves” this hypothesis. Sure enough, in England, Manchester Utd gain far more penalties than lessor teams like Wigan or Fulham. The vast majority of experts (football supporters) agree with this. The counter-hypothesis is that the top teams win more games than the lower teams (a tautology) and this is highly correlated with the number of goals scored. In turn, the number of goals scored is highly correlated with the time spent in the opponents penalty box. To be awarded a penalty, a team must be impeded whilst in possession of the ball in the opponents penalty box (i.e. attacking in a forward position). The alternative hypothesis (which the consensus of “experts” don’t consider)is that a winning side will spend most time in a position to gain a penalty, so will get more penalties.
      There is also a secondary factor. There are always penalties that are incorrectly given. There are more frequent incidents where penalties could have been awarded, but were not. Manchester Utd beat Wigan 1-0. Wigan’s sole scoring opportunity early in the game is blocked and may have been a penalty shout. MUFC were awarded a dubious penalty (converted), two other penalty shouts, 5 shots on target and 5 off target. Wigan claim the MUFC penalty made all the difference.
      Back to weather. Weather is becoming more extreme because a consensus of climatolgists (including those who invented the game science) agree that it is the case. They are consistently identifying why they are right and have far more time to study the subject than contrarians. Further, their hypotheses are constantly being confirmed. There are group of people in denial of this consensus, saying that they are wrong. The penalty denial “deniers” have the peculiar notion that the consensus are ignoring more important factors at play.

      My conclusion is that climatology confirmations are simply not cricket.


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  • #
    ExWarmist

    Anecdotal Evidence is Maxines forte – he is always pointing to hot days, insect plagues and current bushfires as evidence of CAGW – however Anecdotal Evidence is also the mainstay of the notion of Alien Abduction

    The conclusion should be obvious.


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    • #
      Rereke Whakaaro

      The conclusion should be obvious.

      That Maxine is an Alien?


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      • #
        David

        Not really RW although I don’t think anyone would object to her being abducted by them. With their obviously superior technology and intellect they could find where the neurons are short circuiting.


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      • #
        Mark D.

        I think all aliens will protest that comparison.

        The chip in my neck keeps buzzing out code explaining that there are no aliens with an IQ below 50.


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    • #

      You are not suggesting that the more extreme alarmists have a conspiracist orientation? That is cherry-picking evidence; lack of an overall perspective; selective methods of evaluating that evidence; impugning ulterior motives to other viewpoints; or claiming the ability to have superior insight?


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    • #
      ExWarmist

      I was suggesting that Maxines reliance on anecdotal evidence to support CAGW would be no better than making similar claims for support for Alien Abduction – which (wrt to Maxines use of Anecdotal evidence) puts CAGW in the same category as Alien Abduction.

      I’m not suggesting that Maxine believes in Alien Abduction, just that if “anecdotal evidence” is good enough to convince him of CAGW, then he should have no barrier for belief in Alien Abduction.

      Perhaps Maxine could clarify his position on the use of anecdotal evidence in both cases (CAGW, Alien Abduction).

      I suspect – and would require confirmation from Maxine, as I can’t read minds, that the key distinction for Maxine between CAGW and Alien Abduction is the presence of “Argument from Authority” for CAGW. If the Government came out in support for “Alien Abduction”, published photos, and set up a department of “Extraterrestrial Affairs”, than I suspect that Maxine would slot in behind the Government on Alien Abduction.

      Just going to my observations of Maxines method in previous comments…

      So the question for Maxine – is Anecdotal Evidence and the Argument from Authority (in the absence of empirical evidence) sufficient for your belief in CAGW?


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  • #
    janama

    please don’t associate extreme weather with recent normal weather events. It only feeds the trolls.


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  • #
    Drapetomania

    Anecdotal Evidence is Maxines forte – he is always pointing to hot days, insect plagues and current bushfires as evidence of CAGW – however Anecdotal Evidence is also the mainstay of the notion of Alien Abduction The conclusion should be obvious.

    CAGW has caused more alien abductions..!!
    Repent..


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  • #
    Ian George

    Does anyone know the official definition for a heatwave?
    I heard the ABC say that a heatwave is 5 days or more of 5C above the average temp for that month (or based on the 1961-1990 average mean max temp). I have also heard it is 3 days or more greater than 40C.
    Can’t seem to find the definition on the BOM website.


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    • #
      Dennis

      What definition would you prefer, which one will scare you most?


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    • #
      Dennis

      Here is an answer: A heat wave is a prolonged period of excessively hot weather, which may be accompanied by high humidity. While definitions vary, a heat wave is measured relative to the usual weather in the area and relative to normal temperatures for the season. Temperatures that people from a hotter climate consider normal can be termed a heat wave in a cooler area if they are outside the normal climate pattern for that area. The term is applied both to routine weather variations and to extraordinary spells of heat which may occur only once a century. Severe heat waves have caused catastrophic crop failures, thousands of deaths from hyperthermia, and widespread power outages due to increased use of air conditioning.


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      • #
        llew Jones

        Here in Melbourne been up since 6am and still quite cool at 7.40am. Tipped to get to 39C today so sometime later today I should reach my optimum ambient working temperature of around 35C. This isn’t my idea of a heat wave day. Nor have we had any this year yet.

        Off to work now to keep a warm smile on the bank manager’s face.


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      • #
        Ian George

        Thanks Dennis
        I have seen this definition too (Wikipedia) but I am not sure what they mean by ‘prolonged’. I found one here:-

        https://wiki.csiro.au/confluence/download/attachments/442597561/Thursday+Nairn_1340Th.pdf

        This would mean that any 3 day period of excessive heat would be classified a heat wave. In Bourke in Jan, 1939 there were some 17 days over 40C.
        So that would mean that Bourke had 1 heatwave in Jan, 1939. So far Bourke has had two heatwaves this January (one of 6 days and one of three days).
        No wonder the number of heatwaves are increasing.


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    • #
      Kevin Moore

      theduke — posted this 17th Jan.

      \\The Australian BOM says this current pattern of extreme heat is “consistent with climate change”//

      Therefore a heatwave is defined as a climate change.


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    • #
      Crakar24

      Ian,

      Here in Adelaide we have been consistently told that a heatwave is five consecutive days above 35C, so far this year we have not even come close. We did a couple of years ago….hot really hot for about 7 days but it was just weather back then.


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    • #
      Ian Hill

      Adelaide had a heatwave in July once, according to the ABC’s definition:

      Average maximum for July 14.9C

      July 26: 21.5
      July 27: 23.7
      July 28: 24.5
      July 29: 26.6
      July 30: 23.7

      And the year was … (drumroll) ….. 1975.

      Source: BOM Adelaide’s West Tce site (23000).

      It closed in 1980 and therefore couldn’t have a 1961-90 mean.


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    • #
      Jaymez

      This was provided by another contributor Christine, on the definition of heatwaves:

      The Quadrant Magazine ‘The mythmakers’ by John McLean February 14, 2011
      http://www.quadrant.org.au/blogs/doomed-planet/2011/02/the-mythmakers

      Extreme weather or extreme exaggeration?

      Perhaps I shouldn’t have used the word exactly because even the nature of heatwaves seems to vary slightly. In the USA heatwaves are often said to be stationary pools of warm humid air that have typically come up from the Caribbean, but Australians and Europeans see things differently.

      The Bureau of Meteorology’s Monthly Weather Review for Victoria in January 2009, the month of the bad bushfires, says:

      “Perhaps the most important synoptic feature during the month, and the one responsible for Victoria’s heatwave, was a blocking high pressure system in the Tasman Sea which developed from about the 26th. The system directed a northerly air flow over the southeast of Australia, moving an extremely hot air mass over the southeast of the continent.”[8]

      And of November 2009 the corresponding review for South Australia said:

      “As the high pressure system entered the Tasman Sea it slowed dramatically and became nearly stationary during the next week, 7th to 14th, bringing heatwave conditions over the vast majority of South Australia.”[9].

      Of heatwaves in Perth, Western Australia, we are told:

      “Perth’s summer patterns often follow a typical sequence. A ridge of high pressure south of the state combines with a deepening trough off the west coast to direct east to northeasterly winds over the Perth region. This pattern causes rising temperatures over successive days. … Prolonged spells of hot days occur when this pattern is slow moving, the high being maintained south of the state and the west coast trough remaining off the coast. On such occasions, the east to northeasterly winds prevent the early arrival of the seabreeze and cause temperatures well above the average.”[10]

      And for Brisbane and the Gold Coast:

      “In South-East Queensland, heat waves typically occur between November and February, but days of excessive heat can occur between October and March. During these events the predominant wind is generally from the south-west to the north-west, i.e. from the interior of the Continent. Winds from these quarters have the potential to nullify the cooling effects of any sea breeze.” [11]

      Chapter 3 of the IPCC 2007 report said of the 2003 European heat wave:

      “The 2003 heat wave was associated with a very robust and persistent blocking high-pressure system that may be a manifestation of an exceptional northward extension of the Hadley Cell (Black et al., 2004; Fink et al., 2004).”[12].

      The message of all these is clear – heatwaves are caused by quasi-stationary High or Low pressure cells either moving warm air (Australia and Europe) or causing warm, humid air to remain in one place (USA).


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      • #
        Ian George

        So true, Jaymez.
        One interesting fact is that when it is extremely hot, humidity tends to be lower than average. During the 2009 bushfires in Victoria, humidity levels were below 10%.


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  • #
    Dennis

    Last night I heard on ALPBC that heatwave conditions kill more people than road accidents. We really must demand temperature limits and issue points for exceeding them.


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    • #

      Cold conditions kill even more. Over these last few years there have been thousands of deaths related to cold in the UK, across Europe, in China, Russia, etc. Not just old people either, but young ones snowed under on the highways or caught in trains. Pretty scary, especially when those countries believed it was warming and didn’t prepare for colder winters.


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      • #
        Rereke Whakaaro

        Cold conditions kill even more.

        I spent some time living and working in Singapore and got used to the idea that a lot of the workers, who were away from their family home, slept on pallets, under the verandas of the office buildings or shops where they worked. They stayed dry, and being only about 140 Km from the Equator, it was often the coolest place to sleep.

        But one night, the temperature dropped to around 20C, and a significant number of these people died from the effects of exposure.

        It was a very sad incident. But it demonstrated to me, that it is unusual and one-off variation in weather that is the danger, not the absolute extremes.

        I think the scientific term is “adaption”. But that is not a word you hear the catastrophists using,


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        • #
          Byron

          “unusual and one-off variation in weather that is the danger”

          I`d have to say cold is the worse of the two , An “average” Australian summer can be uncomfortable but usually not fatal without electricity unless there`s another cause rendering the person vulnerable , on the other hand if the enviromentals get their way and see Western civilization as energy starved as They would like a lack of heating in homes during a “normal” winter in places like Canada , the Northern half of the United States , northern Europe etc etc would see slews of otherwise healthy people dying from hypothermia .

          Statistically deaths due to “heat waves” mostly cause a shift in timing in overall mortality rates with a small increase in numbers. “Cold snap” events tend to have large spikes in numbers on TOP of typical mortality rates for a given period


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        • #
          KinkyKeith

          A sad event that you wouldn’t think possible.

          On another time scale the vulnerability of the human system to thermal shock is illustrated by the experience of British submariners in training.

          They were practicing escape maneuvers in a deep tank of cold water.

          Following their drills they had a hot shower to warm up and this was the problem.

          A few of them found the extreme cold to sudden warmth too much and they died from thermal shock.

          In hot climates a slightly less dangerous experience can occur when leaving very cold air condition spaces and going straight out into the midday sun.

          Makes you feel very squeamish. Be careful.

          Apparently the reverse from hot to cold is no problem as seen in the sauna to ice pool in Northern Europe.

          KK :)


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    • #
      Bryn

      I heard that as well. A preposterous statement. There were 1291 road deaths in Oz in 1911 (in the USA 32,367) [Wikipedia]. Eyeballing the table for the past decade the total in Oz has averaged about 1500/year. How many deaths from the present heat wave so far? …..


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      • #
        AndyG55

        They mean “during the heat wave”, silly !! ;-)


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        • #
          AndyG55

          What I mean is, suppose you have a 5 day heat wave, seeing it is in summer, there are probably around 30 people killed on the roads in Australia during those 5 days.

          With the cost of electricity, and old folks not being able to run their air-conditioners, it is quite possible that they could somehow manage to claim that many deaths due to heat.


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      • #
        AndyG55

        Byrn, I think you misunderstood me…

        I was just trying to come up with a silly explanation for their ridiculous comment.

        Something that might make sense.

        ie during a heat wave, it is might be possible that more people die from heat than die on the roads.


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      • #
        Roy Hogue

        A death during an extremely hot or cold period doesn’t necessarily mean that the heat or the cold caused that death.


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  • #
    Ross

    Looks like James Hansen might be taking a step or two backwards

    The five-year mean global temperature has been flat for the last decade, which we interpret as a combination of natural variability and a slow down in the growth rate of net climate forcing.

    h/t WUWT

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/01/16/quote-of-the-week-hansen-concedes-the-age-of-flatness/


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    • #
      handjive

      Failed Alarmist Global Warming short summary.
      ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

      1. February 2010
      Phil Jones, director of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia (UEA)-

      “Q. Do you agree that from 1995 to the present there has been no statistically-significant global warming
      A. Yes, but only just.”
      (NB: an inch is as good as a mile when you miss kicking a goal)
      .

      2. January 2013
      Germany is cooling. No increasing temperatures in 15 years
      .

      3. October 2012
      Met Office report: Global warming stopped 16 years ago
      .

      4. Jan 2013
      Global warming at a standstill, new Met Office figures show

      “The Met Office has downgraded its forecast for global warming to suggest that by 2017 temperatures will have remained about the same for two decades.”
      .

      What is the significance of 15-17 years?

      SEPTEMBER, 2011
      Santer: Our results show that temperature records of at least 17 years in length are required for identifying human effects on global-mean tropospheric temperature.


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    • #
      cohenite

      and a slow down in the growth rate of net climate forcing.

      How can net climate forcing be slowing down when CO2 is increasing.


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      • #
        Greg Cavanagh

        What physics is behind the forcing in the first place, and what causes a forcing to change over time (in the opposite direction to the supposed cause [CO2])?

        This is classic disconnect of ideology over simple logic.


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        • #
          john robertson

          Brian I like, we can get volunteers from the same gene pool thats signs up for , Hug a Polar Bear TV.
          I’m sure we can get the gullible to pay for the pleasure of hugging a wild bear, stamping on land mines, right after they campaign to ban the deadly DiHydrogen Monoxide.


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      • #
        AndyG55

        Obviously, the forcing is not, and never was, related to CO2, but some other thing that they will want to control too.


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      • #
        Dennis

        The increasing CO2 is not as effective since the carbon tax and emissions trading schemes were established. And now the fraction of 1 per cent lower global temperature rise that is avoided in 1,000 years time (reference Climate Commissioner Flannery interviewed by journalist Andrew Bolt) will now be a fraction of that fraction.


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        • #
          Andrew McRae

          Just had to do my follow-up energy consumption survey for the Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency.
          I’m sure the boffins at the ABS who have to wade through all this data don’t give a flying fig about the politics of it all, but I’d like to think I made someone’s day slightly more interesting due to my final response.

          =======8<=====8<====8<======

          Please provide comments

          - on any information you have supplied on this questionnaire (e.g. related to unusual circumstances or other factors which may have affected the information you have provided).

          No government should need usage information if power generation and transmission are done by the private sector. It has yet to be demonstrated scientifically that any externalities exist, or will ever exist, that ought to be forcibly injected into price signals by government intervention. My conveniences are my prerogative. Neither should government do companies’ market research for them. Ergo, the information collected in this survey cannot be put to a good use.

          In Ludwig von Mises we trust.

          - on any difficulties you had providing the requested information.

          It was easy, Dr Marx, no difficulties at all.

          =======8<=====8<====8<======

          Time to complete survey; a mere 25 minutes of my time. Was happy to help the Party in any way I can.


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          • #
            Roy Hogue

            What happens if you simply tear up the form instead of returning it?


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            Andrew McRae

            What happens is this:

            14 Failure to answer questions etc.

            (1) A person commits an offence if:

            (a) the person is served a direction under subsection 10(4) or 11(2); and

            (b) the person fails to comply with the direction.

            Penalty: One penalty unit.

            On a completely unrelated note, everyone here seems to think swimming with sharks is okay as long as the sharks only take a few people per year.


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          • #
            Roy Hogue

            And the penalty?

            ———————-

            Your government is totalitarian beyond anything I imagined.


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          • #
            Mark D.

            Andrew M. says:

            On a completely unrelated note, everyone here seems to think swimming with sharks is okay as long as the sharks only take a few people per year.

            Andrew, you are perhaps younger than most here and I really don’t want to be the one to break depressing news to you but the above quote pretty much describes how life operates. Sorry you had to hear it first from me.

            Now go get your prescription for Diazepam, mix carefully with the beverage of your choice. Don’t do that before work however. :)


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          • #
            Roy Hogue

            I might add that here so many people fail to send back census forms that they can’t follow up on all of them. I’ve trashed the last 3 decennial census forms without trouble. Technically it’s a misdemeanor with a possible fine or jail time but they don’t dare try it for fear of public outrage. Even the lefties don’t like the intrusiveness.

            I don’t mind the census but I do mind the questions that go far beyond what he constitution authorizes.


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          • #
            Andrew McRae

            Mark D.

            If you had ever known anybody that committed suicide you wouldn’t be joking about it.
            Here’s something which won’t be news to you. You are [snip insults]

            Right off.

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            Mark D.

            Andrew, I meant a recreational dose.

            Seriously, if you took it any other way I’m deeply sorry.

            If it is a close friend your talking about get them to talk to family, friends and then professionals.

            I’ve had my own major events in life bro.


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    • #
      Brendan

      Wow, so the entire theorem we have insisted is settled, has failed to predict the current lull in temperatures, and rather than as per the scientific method, this invalidating the theorem, instead we wave it away and no doubt add another ‘fudge factor’ to the computer code.

      We then invoke ‘natural variability’, the same factor that we discounted because we were 95% certain all the warming was man made.

      What the ?

      A year 10 science student would be failed for this level of ‘science’.


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  • #

    I was interested in the apparent 220 year cycle of sunspots and earth temperature and found the following interesting information which relates sunspots to Jupiters orbital period


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      Crakar24

      enthalpy,

      Do a search on Theodore Landscheidt to learn alot more but basically the suns natural cycle is about 11 years the Jovian orbit is 11.86 years and therefore they are out of sync. There are only two objects that produce more energy than they recieve (sun and Jupiter). If Jupiter approaches sun near perihelion if the sun is approaching maxima Jupiter gives it a kick and he we get big short cycles conversely if the sun is approaching minima jupiter causes low long cycles.

      The planets Saturn, Neptune, Uranus and even Earth have an effect but Jupiter is the main driver, what happens is the sun is dragged away from the barycentre (centre of mass) of the solar system. Landscheidt predicted all this, he predicted SC23 will be a long cycle, he predicted SC24 would be long and low and he predicted SC25 will be even worse.

      He developed his theory to the point where he could make weather predictions on Earth. Of course the IPCC ignored his work and unfortunately he died of the flu in 2004.


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    pat

    the CAGW MEME will never die!!!!

    15 Jan: Time Mag/Science/Going Green: Bryan Walsh: Federal Forecast for Climate Change: It’s Getting Hot in Here
    Spring came early to Walden Pond in 2012…
    Of course, you don’t need to pore through the records at Walden Pond to know that the climate is changing…
    (MORE: 2012 Was the Hottest Year in U.S. History. And Yes — It’s Climate Change)…
    (MORE: Why Seeing Is Believing—Usually—When It Comes to Climate Change)…
    (MORE: Climate Change and Sandy: Why We Need to Prepare for a Warmer World)…
    When President Barack Obama and a Democratic Congress couldn’t push through cap and trade legislation in 2010 — see Harvard’s Theda Skocpol on the green movement’s political failures — we may have squandered the best chance in a decade to take comprehensive action against climate change. Now we can’t even agree to pay the country’s bills. It’d be nice to feel some optimism, but that’s vanishing faster than the remains of an increasingly rare snowfall in New York. Still, I suppose there’s a silver lining. Spring is just around the corner — and it’s getting closer every year.
    (FIRST COMMENT BY GeraldWilhite) I could not find a clear citation to the paper on which your article is based in your article, but I assume that you were talking about “Global Temperature Update Through 2012, 15 January 2013 by J. Hansen, M. Sato, R. Ruedy”, which has not yet been peer-reviewed.
    This preliminary paper is notable because it is, to my knowledge, the first time Hansen has admitted that global warming flat-lined several years ago…
    http://science.time.com/2013/01/15/federal-forecast-for-climate-change-its-getting-hot-in-here/?iid=sl-main-mostpop2


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      Crakar24

      Thanks for the time link Pat for those interested there is an unending supply of AGW PR there to be read, i offer J Hansens latest illogical double speak as an example

      Hansen says the heat wave that struck Texas and Oklahoma last summer and the Moscow heat wave of 2010 (which caused 11,000 deaths in the city) are examples of three-sigma anomalies. In a paper published last year in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Stefan Rahmstorf and Dim Coumou of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, in Germany, wrote that it was 80 percent probable that the Moscow heat wave had been caused by global warming.

      “These three-sigma anomalies,” Hansen says, “we can now say are due to global warming.” But what about the extreme cold snaps climate-change deniers keep pointing to? Even with global warming, Hansen told Time.com in an email, there “is still a broad bell curve. In fact, it has become broader, which means there will still be times when a season is colder than average. When that happens [people] should not say, ‘What happened to global warming?’ It will still be there — they are just looking at natural variability.”

      So a cold snap is just weather but hot weather is climate change, oh how the mighty have fallen.


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    pat

    CO2 emissions to grow 26 pct by 2030: BP
    LONDON, Jan. 16 (Reuters Point Carbon) – Global emissions of carbon dioxide from increased use of energy are set to grow by more than a quarter from 2011 by the end of the next decade, well above what scientists say are safe levels, oil major BP said in its annual long-term forecast Wednesday…
    http://www.pointcarbon.com/news/reutersnews/1.2140905?&ref=searchlist

    Emitters, banks seek EU clarity on CO2 market rule change
    LONDON, Jan. 16 (Reuters Point Carbon) – A lobby group made up of Europe’s biggest energy firms and heavy industry has written to the EU Commission to demand clarity on proposed changes to the EU Emissions Trading Scheme that will curb the use of cheap Russian carbon credits…
    http://www.pointcarbon.com/news/1.2140428?&ref=searchlist

    EU carbon hits six-week low on profit taking, weak power
    LONDON, Jan 16 (Reuters Point Carbon) – EU carbon allowances fell to their lowest in six weeks on Wednesday as the market lost gains made on Tuesday amid profit taking and weak power prices, traders said…
    http://www.pointcarbon.com/news/1.2140867?&ref=searchlist

    EU to shut CO2 registry for software upgrade
    LONDON, Jan 16 (Reuters Point Carbon) – The European Commission will shut its carbon registry between Jan. 25-29, it said late on Tuesday, to upgrade the software required to distribute this year’s quota of free CO2 allowances to companies and airlines participating in the EU emissions market…
    http://www.pointcarbon.com/news/1.2140190?&ref=searchlist


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    pat

    Watch your Super:

    16 Jan: Bloomberg: Andrew Herndon/Christopher Martin: Private Equity Flees Clean Energy as Investment Falls
    Private equity companies and venture capitalists including Draper Fisher Jurvetson and Braemar Energy Ventures reduced renewable-energy investment to the lowest since 2006 as once-promising companies failed or were sold at a loss…
    The decline shows a wariness among investors who’ve been burned by losses, especially those who backed solar-panel manufacturers competing with Chinese companies. It also reflects a shrinking market as fewer entrepreneurs sought capital for clean energy startups, said Vinod Khosla, the billionaire founder of Menlo Park, California-based Khosla Ventures.
    “All the fashionable VCs have gone away from it,” Khosla said in an interview. “Even the number of businesses people are starting is smaller.”
    ***The decline is the result of waning government incentives for renewable energy and weak performance in the stock market, which made it harder for investors to extract value, said Ethan Zindler, an analyst at New Energy Finance in Washington…
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-15/private-equity-flees-clean-energy-as-investment-falls-energy.html


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    Geoff Sherrington

    Some more data on heat waves, January for 150 years, Sydney & Melbourne. Nothing from 2013 so far makes the graphs.:

    http://www.geoffstuff.com/HEAT%20WAVES.pdf

    chart 1

    Chart 2


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      cohenite

      Hi Geoff; I’ve arranged for your neat graphs to be put up at NCTCS; I hope you don’t mind.


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        Geoff Sherrington

        Hi Cohenite,
        I’m an open access thinker when blogging. My full and corect name is up, my c.v. is up, anything I write can be repeated without the need to seek permission – noting that, thank you for your courtesy in asking. The exception is my own photos, which are covered by copyright by me as maker under normal law.
        Can you email me pls if you had any difficulty opening the URL HEAT_WAVES above? I can’t open it on my own browser IE and I’m trying to pin down the problem.
        I’m going to do the same for Feb 2013 (plus the Jan-Feb 5-day overlap)some time early in Feb. It sets a benchmark that people claiming heat wave conditions have to overcome before they rush to print, though the definition is not entirely fixed.
        Cheers geoff. sherro1 at optusnet dot com dot au


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        cohenite

        It’s up here Geoff.

        [I took the liberty of using these images to put them in the post above too] ED


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    Bruce of Newcastle

    Further to Mr Kininmonths letter I’ll also repeat something I’ve posted a couple of times recently, since I think it is very pertinent to this whole heatwave discussion. The MSM rarely mention this and the likes of CSIRO don’t because it undermines their scary story (and funding).

    Such heatwaves are becoming more common, not because of CO2, but because of the phenomenon of jet stream blocking, where eastward movement of weather systems is impeded. So over land hot areas get hotter and cold areas get colder – until they move out over the sea and are dispersed due to the heat capacity of the ocean.

    Mike Lockwood of Reading University, a warmist, pointed this out for the cold in the UK and also the Moscow heat wave.

    His finding was that jet stream blocking events are more common when the Sun is quiet than when it is active. The Sun is presently in its quietest state for over 200 years, and this is expected to continue.

    Jet stream blocking occurs when Rossby waves become more serpentine.

    I was struck when looking at one of Ryan Maue’s fine graphics yesterday that you can easily spot where the (invisible) Rossby waves are in the southern hemisphere between each of the hot and cold patches processing right around the globe at our latitude.

    I doubt we’ll see an even handed analysis of such events anywhere in the press or popular websites. Too controversial and too dangerous to the Climate Change industry. So I’ll leave it to readers to consider this for themselves.


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    Graham Jeffs

    The mainstream media reporting on Hansen’s statement is pretty astounding, all the headlines simply say 2012 was hot, and the articles essentially say CAGW is marching on unabated. Journalists don’t seem to think the pause is too significant.


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      ExWarmist

      The only pause that the average journalist reporting on climate change would think is significant would be to their salary.


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        Graham Jeffs

        But it’s amazing how the focus is different , like when the SSREX IPCC report came out. All I could see was a report stating there was no evidence that climate change was causing extreme weather events but the media reports actually led with headlines that stated the direct opposite.its like bizarro- world, where clearly people state what they wAnt to be true despite an unusually honest IPCC report.


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          Shevva

          The MSM is a joke, just one example.

          I was watching the Channel 4 news over here int he UK last night
          i)they started with the horse burgers that where being sold as beef burgers, first up they went to a childrens play pit and asked the parents if they where happy that their children where eating horse? then they went to a halal butchers and asked if muslims would be happy eating beef burgers that had traces of pork in them.
          ii)next up the helicopter crash in London they started this news segment with what the helicopter COULD of crashed into?

          I could go on.


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    Kevin Moore

    There is nothing new under the sun.

    Excerpt from The Western Mail [Perth, WA 11Feb 1898]

    MELBOURNE, February 4.

    There is still no change in the sweltering heat which has prevailed night and day since last Friday. Northerly winds set in with daybreak, and by ll o’clock’ the thermometer at the Observatory registered lOOdeg. in the shade, and by 3 o’clock the reading had gone up to 107.5, which was the highest reading for the day, while during the greater part of the afternoon the thermometer registered 158deg. in the sun. Several cases of heat apoplexy have been reported, and in a couple of instances
    horses fell dead in the streets.

    Telegrams of rain in Gippsland and other fire afflicted districts reported dreadful suffering by settlers. Heat was registered up to 114 degrees ia the shade, and the suffering was intensified by stifling smoke and scarcity of water. One redeeming point
    in the bush fires is that there has not been any loss of human life,- but the des- truction of cattle, sheep, fencing, hay stacks and household property is very heavy. In South Gippsland in particular the limit of human endurance has been about reached.

    MELBOURNE, February 5.
    A bush fire,which swept away nearly nine thousand acres of grass, started near Woolsthorpe, in the Koroit district, on Friday. A north-easterly wind drove the flames on at a great rate, and fencing and live stock were destroyed. The Messrs. O’Keefe Bros. lost 50 sheep, W. Lindsay lost 150, and others had smaller losses. The Messrs. O’Keefe are heavy losers. They carry on an extensive dairying business, and have lost all their grass feed.

    Numerous cases ef heroic conduct have come under notice in connection with the disastrous bush fire. One, the most daring, was performed at Warragul by Mr. E. J. Fowler, who almost gave his own life away,riding through burning bush to save a crippled farmer, named Loader and his little girl.

    The Chief Justice, Sir John Madden, has written to Mr. Fowler, expressing his highest admiration of his gallant and splendid courage.

    All the country to the south of Warragul is again enveloped in thick smoke, caused by the bush fires being fanned by a strong south-westerly wind which set in yesterday and blew throughout to-day. During the owner’s absence in Warragul on Friday night the homestead of Mr. Michael Dwyer was nearly destroyed. Thè fire “swept through the forest, and attacked the house which, but for the splendid work of the inmates and neighbours, would have been destroyed. Thë state school was at one time in imminent danger, and the Mechanics Institute wag also threatened.

    MELBOURNE, February 6. J Mr, Brunker, Acting-Premier of New | South Wales, telegraphed to the Victorian Premier (Sir George Turner) yesterday as follows -”Deeply regret sad calamity and lamentable distress which have overtaken your people in consequence of bush fires in Gippsland district. Please accept my warmest sympathy.” Sir George Turner suitably replied.

    The Minister of Lands states that during the past week the Government attended to a large number of individual cases of the sufferers through the bush fires, and re- lieved their immediate hardship. He suggests, however, that where ” extensive damage bas been done and the distress urgent, local committees consisting of three persons should be formed, so that particulars as to the losses sustained could be collected and placed before him, when the pressing wants of the sufferers would receive his immediate attention.

    Telegrams from the “country show that the change of wind saved several town- ships, which were chreatened with de-struction by bush fises. In some portions of Gippsland the fires are still, burning fiercely, but the wind being no longer from the north the exhausted settlers have a chance of recovering energy. The coal mining town of Korumburra is still threatened, but a careful watch is being kept, and the residents have the assistance of a contingent of the metropolitan fire brigade. The officer in charge of the contingent paid-a visit this afternoon to Silkstone, where the Jumbunna and other coal mines were menaced by the fires which are burning in heavily timbered gulliss almost up to the pit mouths, and there-fore perilously close to the mine buildings and surface plant. If the danger becomes more acute during the night the fire engine will be removed from Korumburra and set to work to secure the mine buildings.

    The long stretch of intense heat was broken yesterday morning, when a cool southerly breeze set in and continued throughout to-day. This long-desired change gave intense relief, but heavy rain is wanted to complete that feeling. The Government astronomer, however, states that there are no signs of any rain……..”

    http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/33150385


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    william

    Although summer temperatures around Melbourne regions don’t seem to be as high or as prolonged as I recall them being as a lad in the 1960′s, but ultra violet radiation does seem to have increased somewhat.Being a British/Mediteranian hybrid with olive skin I could stay outside shirtless in over 100 degreeF all day without sunburn back then.
    Now if I go out for a couple of minutes without a shirt my skin starts to sting.
    Do the so called greenhouse gasses that the Warmists blame for globull warming not also filter UV? A genuine question as I’m scientifically uneducated.


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      Graham

      Oh no it’s worse than we thought, glowbull warming causes more sunburn! I see a new alarmist campaign coming from the loony ABC (Alarmist Bullsh1t Corporation)!

      Seriously, I too have noticed that I seem more susceptible to sunburn, but I strongly suspect it is due to my 7 decade old skin not being so tolerant to abuse.

      I’ll be interested in comments from a dermatologist if any care to comment.

      Graham


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      John Brookes

      That is just because you are older. The older you get, the less your skin likes the sun. Bloody said if you ask me.


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        Grant (NZ)

        And as kid you tended to have more opportunity to be outside and conditioned to being in the sun. Being more of an office wallah now I find those days I have opportunity for some outside work I have to watch exposure for a few days but then after a week or so I am right. My forearms never get sunburned – thanks to tee shirt wearing.


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    Turtle

    Which of these is correct?

    0.2 degrees = serious climate change

    0.2 degrees = a short drive down the road

    The second makes the first look insane.


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    inedible hyperbowl

    Quote from an immigrant friend -
    “… during one of those once in a hundred year storms that we have here. We seem to have had 5 in the last 5 years, since I have been here.”

    Sums up the BoM/Media hyperbole about the weather.


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      Dennis

      I was recently discussing with family a Christmas Day long ago, either 1949 or 1950, and it was explained that the night and day and following night were very hot on the NSW-Qld border in a small town. So hot that the ginger beer containers had their tops blown off by the pressure inside, with all the doors and windows wide open the heat and humidity was almost intolerable and in the late afternoon there was a fierce thunder storm and much lightening. They said that the young people went down to the river vehicle crossing after lunch to lie in the cool water, and some older children played cricket behind the hotel on a shaded paddock while the men sat in the pub drinking cold beer.

      A not uncommon weather event in those days apparently. Of course Australia has many hot summers and heatwaves are not uncommon.


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    Dennis

    I found this in a blog a few days ago, the writer is a very interesting person and as the subject is related to the politics of global warming/climate change I thought people here would like to see it;

    Thank you so much, Piers for this very very timely information.

    It will be completely ignored , of course , by the Labor propaganda unit that passes for a MSM, as they use every bushfire—every hot day—-every flood—every single weather event—to flog their lies to deceive the Australian people.

    The facts are something to be dodged at all costs in the MO of the Left—- here, in the US, the UK—everywhere.

    From an article by Daniel Sarewitz quoted on Roger Pielke Jr’s blog…related to this….

    [ ‘ Science has come, over the past decade or so, to be a part of the identity of one political party, the Democrats, in the United States.

    ‘For the third presidential election in a row, dozens of Nobel prizewinners in physics, chemistry and medicine signed a letter endorsing the Democratic candidate.’

    ‘The 2012 letter argued that Obama would ensure progress on the economy, health and the environment by continuing “America’s proud legacy of discovery and invention”, and that his Republican opponent, Mitt Romney, would “devastate a long tradition of support for public research and investment in science”.’ ]

    But from a reply to those uninformed scientists…

    [ ‘In fact Republican President George W. Bush is considered the second or third best President of all 44 for the quality and comprehensiveness of the science policies developed under his leadership. Those policies were developed without any partisanship by a superb group of policymakers in the key positions. The policies are being followed by the current administration and will likely continue to be followed for the rest of this decade, at least.’ ]
    The Left uses the anti-evolution and creationist beliefs of a few, to dismiss and denounce all conservatives and CAGW sceptics.

    But many of the leading scientists of the Left were just as passionate and just as certain in the past about the anti-human ‘science’ of eugenics —just as certain of their own over-arching superiority and correctness—just as pathologically narcissist—- as are the high priests of CAGW now.

    The Fabians, as all of the modern Left are, if they’re not outright Communists—- hope we’ll all forget, or never find out—–with the help of their MSM propaganda unit, of course——that back in the 30s, many of their great heroes were passionate eugenicists, for whom the poor were hardly seen as human, but in their eyes an evil pollutant every bit as much in need of eradication as CO2 is seen by them now.

    But , while conservatives would look for ways of helping the poor to improve their lot by education, and generally using government to empower them by policies that would increase employment opportunities etc—- the heroes of Labor and the Left were looking for measures of absolute eradication—as per the vermin they categorised them to be.

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/5571423/how-eugenics-poisoned-the-welfare-state/

    The great economist hero of the Left , quoted so often and so admiringly by Rudd in his unspeakable propaganda piece, ‘Howard’s Brutopia’, was an avid enthusiast—-even after Hitler….

    [ ‘The economist John Maynard Keynes served on the society’s governing council and was its director from 1937 to 1944. Once again, this was no casual hobby. As late as 1946 Keynes was still describing eugenics as ‘the most important and significant branch of sociology’’ ]

    Of course, Rudd’s other great hero, Bonhoeffer, lost his life trying to eradicate the monster who took encouragement from the ideas of Keynes and his Fabian comrades, and put them to use in his plan to take over the whole world in the name of Nazism.

    Such is the lunatic confusion and conceit of the Left.

    Fabian hero, George Bernard Shaw believed that the poor had ‘no business to be alive’ and speculated at a meeting of the Eugenics Society about the need to use a ‘lethal chamber’ to solve the problem.

    ‘ Petty criminals, unmarried mothers or those displaying homosexual inclinations’ , were classified under Fabian eugenicists’-inspired law as ‘feeble-minded’ or ‘morally defective’——and 40000 of them were incarcerated without trial.

    So under the rules of their very own heroes, just about all of the parliamentary Labor party would now be in the slammer.

    Now , of course the Left uses this same demographic as a useful screen on which to project and exhibit their bogus, phoney compassion—and an essential voting bloc that must grow to ensure their grip on power.

    ‘ So what went wrong with a welfare state that was supposed to make ‘ignorance, squalor and want’ things of the past, and guarantee greater social integration? Or have we simply misunderstood what that project was really about?’ , asks the writer of the article.

    I think we know the answer—– and the CAGW lies and propaganda are just the new eugenics—-with the infestations bu the Left of all of the institutions the means to the same old ends —a world governed globally by a Fabian Left self-styled elite—the individual just pesky vermin to be used, corralled, mobilized, incarcerated or finally eradicated.

    truth of sydney


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    Abel Knight

    I was having a discussion with a friend of mine who claimed that the increase in the number of days/ year with temperatures above 40 degree is a sign of climate change. I don’t think it is true but I don’t have an argument against it either


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      lmwd

      I don’t think it is true but I don’t have an argument against it either

      The wonderful thing about Jo’s site, if you care to go exploring and do some reading, is that you will learn precisely how to argue against this kind of assertion.


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        Andrew McRae

        you will learn precisely how to argue against this kind of assertion.

        Such as… how exactly?

        Yes really, don’t leave us in suspense!

        IMHO…
        A) Temperature is the result of an accumulation of energy in a small region. You could have an increase in heatwave occurrences within a particular region without a global rise in average temperature if they were due to solar energy not being mixed and diffused as quickly as usual. Obviously ocean and wind currents are the major distributors of solar energy. But winds are such a chaotic system that attribution to any cause is difficult. The recent Australian heatwaves have already been attributed to a co-incidence of the entirely natural cyclic Pacific ENSO phenomenon and the Antarctic Oscillation. Further, if you had less diffusion of energy you could expect to get colder mins and hotter maxs in the same year. (We have just had a December with record cold in Russia and heatwaves in Australia. Just sayin’.)

        B) The definition of “climate” is the 30 year average of temperature and rainfall. No less. So a couple of heatwaves may be a “sign” but it doesn’t actually count as climate change a change in climate until you have 30 years of that trend.

        C) “Climate change” is a loaded propaganda term anyway, which is really Green-code for “human-caused global warming”, so a change in temperature by itself doesn’t prove it was caused by industrial activity anyway.


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          lmwd

          Such as… how exactly?

          Yes really, don’t leave us in suspense!

          Andrew,

          Perhaps you misunderstood my post? My suggestion to Abel was to get informed and Jo’s site is a really good place to do that. Do you have a problem with that suggestion? Or were you wanting to display your superior knowledge? An intellectual pissing contest? Yes, Andrew, I’m sure you know more than me. Happy now?

          How about Abel reading (and understanding) the last thread on Australia’s historical record of temperatures. It might be a good start? Just sayin! I seem to remember a posting on how BOM were massaging the raw data in 1939. Very interesting. Perhaps some knowledge of The MWP and The LIA and when temperature records started being kept would also be useful to Abel in any discussion with warmist friends?

          The point of this site is for anyone to come here, read, interact, learn and then use that knowledge in climate discussions with others.


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        Abel Knight

        So I downloaded all the available daily max temperature data for Perth Airport(1960 onwards), Sydney(something like 1860 onwards) and inspired from the post above the two data sets (post office and the airport) for Alice Springs, from the BOM website. The annual mean max temperature was on the rise and so were the number of days above 40 (for Perth) and 35 (for Sydney). The values of 40 and 35 were chosen arbitrarily, 35 for Sydney because not many days above 40. Alice Springs post office data had peak of days above 40 in 1878 and then there was a decreasing trend. The airport data only had an increasing trend but it started collecting data in 1953 or so.

        I will try to see compare the trend of mean temperature with trend of extreme temperature days to see if there is too much perturbation. I guess the increase in the number of extreme heat days is due to the increase in the mean temperature. I don’t know what the increase in the mean temperature is from though.

        I tried reading through the website until I hit http://joannenova.com.au/2012/12/are-sea-levels-rising-nils-axel-morner-documents-a-decided-lack-of-rising-seas/ and saw the line
        “Sea level is measured both by tide gauges and, since 1992, by satellite altimetry. One of the keepers of the satellite record told Professor Mörner that the record had been interfered with to show sea level rising, because the raw data from the satellites showed no increase in global sea level at all.” hard to take that seriously. Someone told me that government is hiding Aliens too.

        My understanding is that satellite altimeter-y has only just gotten to a point where signal to noise ratio is good enough to take measurements. I don’t trust the old measurements even though they show an increase.

        At the risk of sounding more and more like a stupid greenie, I will stop here. Mostly what I want is a trust worthy article(peer reviewed journal) explaining to me why climate change is nothing to be concerned about.


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      John Brookes

      I don’t think it is necessarily a sign of global warming. After all, that might just be a variation in local climate. Global warming would be if the average temperature over the whole world increased. Of course if the average temperature over the whole world increases, then more localities will heat up than cool down. So more days over xx degrees would be consistent with global warming, without proving it.

      But of course the world is warming, fairly rapidly. And you don’t need more 40+ days to prove it.


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        Jaymez

        The world is warming fairly rapidly

        1. I have UK Met land based temperature records which show no increase since 1998.
        2, I have 1982 – 2012 Annual NINO3.4 Surface Temperature Anomalies showing a cooling trend from ’82 to now.
        3. I have 3000 Argo buoy measuring at all levels down to 700m which show ocean heat content which has been stable over the period since 2003.
        4. Finally I have the NOAA provided satellite data which measures the Global-mean stratospheric temperature anomalies since 1979.The lower, middle and upper stratospheric levels indicate cooling: 15-20km looked like cooling of -1.5C over the period. At 25km – 35km the cooling trend appears to be a bit stronger at about -2.0C. The 25k – 35k also looks about -2.0C cooling. The higher stratosphere between 40k – 590K shows a very strong cooling trend of about 0.3C since 1970.

        So John, all the data tells us that global warming has at best stalled, at worse cooled. But temperatures are definitely not warming.

        Scientists, activists, politicians the media and others who continue to claim global warming is happening now, and faster than predicted have been seriously misled, and are misleading others.

        If they refuse to accept that the CAGW theory and their climate models are wrong, then they will have to wear the badge of climate denier.


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          John Brookes

          The long term trend is warming. When the long term (30+ year) trend changes to cooling, then we can talk about it. Right now, it is warming, and it has been warming. Sure it is masked by short term variability. But anyone who thinks that its not warming has rocks in their head.


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            Sonny

            I don’t think it’s warming anymore John.
            And the fact that it isn’t shows that CO2 is not a dominant climate driver.
            One day you will switch sides to embrace reality but I suspect that will be once the gravy train derails and you need to find yourself a real job.
            Ever thought of doin something useful?


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        Kevin Moore

        But of course the world is warming, fairly rapidly. And you don’t need more 40+ days to prove it

        .

        John,
        What standard for comparison can you give to validate your estimation that the world is warming fairly rapidly?


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          Kevin Moore

          This should suit Johns thinking methodology.

          Global cooling is caused by global warming — says Greenbang.com

          Averaged globally, temperatures around the world have been rising pretty much since modern instrumental record-keeping began. But average global warming doesn’t mean steady, year-round warming everywhere.

          Now, new research suggests that some of the cold, snowy winters that parts of the world have seen lately aren’t due just to random variations, but could in fact be caused by climate change. Yes, global warming might be causing more cooling and snow.

          Led by Judah L. Cohen of Atmospheric and Environmental Research, the new study explains the effect this way:

          When did modern instrumental record keeping begin?

          http://www.greenbang.com/global-warming-might-cause-colder-winters-more-snow_21263.html


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            Crakar24

            This is a fascinating story Kevin thankyou for sharing it with us.

            This story demonstrates just how fervent the warmers really are.

            1, The arctic is melting due to AGW (warmer air melts the ice), no ice means the oceans warm.
            2, This causes moisture in the air to increase, more moisture means more clouds, more clouds means more rain.
            3, Siberia (yep forget about the Arctic now) where it is still cold enough for snow now gets more snow especially in Autumn (fall)
            4, Increased fall snow in Siberia causes the AO to change bringing blasts of Artic air to some parts of USA, Canada and Nth Eurasia.

            That line of reasoning would help explain why the Northern Hemisphere has seen a trend of more extreme winter weather — both bitter cold spells and heavy snows — since around 1988, the researchers say.

            “(E)vidence suggests that summer and autumn warming trends are concurrent with increases in high-latitude moisture and an increase in Eurasian snow cover,” they write in an article published in Environmental Research Letters. And that, they continue, “dynamically induces large-scale wintertime cooling.”

            There you go: warming causes cooling.

            Which brings us back to point 1, the Artic is melting due to global warming so where does the Arctic blasts of air that causes cooler winters come from?

            This theory just gets more complex as the years of no warming drag on.


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            Kevin Moore

            Deluges of snow and rain. Why?

            The world has been hard-hit by abnormal weather in late 2010 and early 2011. Many articles have been written and opinions voiced. Some even blame global warming, but what really happened?

            It is indeed an unusual co-incidence of natural climate processes, which boil down to the following scenario:
            the world has been cooling slightly due to a change in solar activity, as borne out by the late and few sunspots for the coming Cycle 24. This alone accounts for:
            in the summer of 2010: droughts at mid-latitudes as explained above, accompanied by heat waves and bush fires in the summer of 2010: droughts at the centres of continents with abnormally low temperatures in the northern winter
            in the winter of 2010: (some) snow falling early, colder winter in the winter of 2010: (some) snow falling at lower latitudes, colder winter during the same time over the past three years, the oceans have experienced an unusually strong El Niño, during which ocean currents stagnate, which accounts for:
            a massive pool of warm water accumulating in the tropics.

            The warmer water should have triggered an over-active hurricane season but hurricanes cannot develop strength (spin) if they cannot move to higher latitudes where the coriolis force is stronger. When they did, they moved over colder water, which extinguished them. Because of land winds, none could make a land-fall.

            Seas in higher latitudes becoming colder than usual, resulting in
            summer: the drying of continents, heat waves, droughts, bush fires, etc.
            winter: early snow over larger areas then the El Niño ended, followed by La Niña when oceans begin to circulate again. The massive pool of warm tropical water began its journey poleward to higher latitudes, exactly when winter began in the north and summer in the south, causing:

            in the north: massive amounts of snow to fall on the still cold land. The snow, reflecting sunlight, further cooled the land, resulting in more sea wind with more snow over ever larger areas. Note, this is how an ice age begins!
            In the south: massive torrential rains on continental margins, accompanied by flooding.
            An extraordinary conspiracy of natural factors indeed! Its aftermath will be felt as a thorough disruption in agricultural productivity, most likely resulting in serious famines world-wide, accompanied by social unrest.

            http://www.seafriends.org.nz/issues/global/climate2.htm#global_cooling_heatwave


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            John Brookes

            What is wrong with that? It makes perfect sense. Not only will there be global warming, local climates may well change. And a local change to cooler is definitely possible.


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            Kevin Moore

            It is indeed an unusual co-incidence of natural climate processes, which boil down to the following scenario:
            the world has been cooling slightly due to a change in solar activity, as borne out by the late and few sunspots for the coming Cycle 24.

            Note, this is how an ice age begins!


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    Dennis

    Interesting graph, “just two facts” regarding CO2

    http://www.ilovemycarbondioxide.com/pdf/Just_two-facts.pdf


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    handjive

    Take 5…

    A little entertainment amongst all this serious stuff:

    Proving once again that someone, somewhere, might just have too much time on his/her hands, a mashup featuring the Beatles and Led Zeppelin has turned up online.

    This new creation, known as “Whole Lotta Helter Skelter,” mixes, well, Led Zeppelin’s “Whole Lotta Love” with the Beatles’ “Helter Skelter.” For the most part, it puts the Beatles’ vocals against Led Zep’s music, although there are some notable changes to keep it interesting. Both songs were recorded in the key of E.

    Fans of the Beatles & Led Zep should not miss this.

    Enjoy.

    http://www.guitaraficionado.com/video-led-zeppelin-the-beatles-featured-in-new-mashup.html


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    Neville

    More corruption , fraud and manufactured secret manipulation from the MET office.

    http://www.thegwpf.org/met-office-botch-climate-scientists-stratosphere-wrong/

    Now no one can replicate their secret manufacturing of the data and we all have to live with the GIGO produced by very doubtful CMs.

    I hope Jo and David can have a look at this mess.


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      Roy Hogue

      Neville,

      Yours is the most worthwhile comment in this thread.

      Here is what readers who don’t read the GWPF article should see.

      The bottom line here is that models based on this almost universally accepted data are wrong. “If the NOAA SSU data are correct, then both the CCMVal2 and CMIP5 models are presumably missing key changes in stratospheric composition,” the report plainly states. The article goes on to suggest corrective actions to prevent such a travesty being repeated in the future. Alas, the damage has already been done.

      What is documented here is simply astounding. That which was thought to be understood is found to be misunderstood. Readings thought to be accurate are shown to be inaccurate. How the data were derived is found to be a secret now lost. The impact of the bogus data ripples through past results and, in particular, climate models, rendering old assumptions invalid. What was that line again about “settled science?”


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        Roy Hogue

        The GWPF document I quoted is talking about an article in Nature which is unfortunately behind a pay wall.

        I agree with Neville and hope that Jo can do an exposition on this.


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    The Black Adder

    I’ve just heard the latest drivel on CAGW from ABC Newsradio…

    This is the second report I have heard this week pertaining to the Catastrophic figure of 6 degrees warming by the end of the century!!

    Is there no end to their lies!

    The Lord Monckton so kindly put it at WUWT, when he called it for what it is…

    FRAUD!!


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    john robertson

    Orwell was right, history must die for hysterical propaganda to work.
    So its extreme weather if you are under 30 and have kept to the inner city most of your life? I could believe we control the climate if my “outdoors” was a shopping mall.
    Must be the end of the world up here, its -36C tonight and gee thats unprecedented. Since 2003? This cold snap has lasted a month now, we are all gonna freeze.
    Comedy of that is the new improved Environment Canada Weather stations,1991, apparently are not calibrated below -40C. So new cold records are impossible.So I am sure I will never see a week of -50 again.


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      Dennis

      In the 1970s I worked for a Japanese trading company representing many Japanese companies, their culture required people to reach 30 years of age to become managers, maturity. Now the pollsters concentrate on under 30s. Think about it.


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      Roy Hogue

      John,

      I don’t know where you live. But if I was to bet that -36 C (-32.8 F) is regular winter fare for you, going back centuries, would I win or lose? :-)

      You probably get it much colder than that. Is -50 C usual?


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        john robertson

        Roy, NWT Canada, -50 C is rare enough in this period to be news, but historically nothing unusual.
        So yes you win.


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        Mark D.

        Roy and John, for the benefit of our AU friends and some perspective, it is not unusual for -30F here in the northern plains US states either. Upper Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, North and South Dakota, Montana all dip into -20F to -40F and sometimes even colder. The early settlers have plenty of harrowing stories about severe blizzards and extreme cold. Of course the historic native peoples also have the harrowing stories, they just didn’t have a number to assign to the cold.

        These same areas can have summertime highs over 100F to boot.

        Now I find it fascinating that “official” thermometers would not be able to record the coldest temperatures. What kind of bias does that introduce in the “official” temperature record?????


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          john robertson

          Oh its even better, they manage to loose the minus sign from some of the automated stations at airports so the hourly readings will go ,-24, -30,30,-23… Kind of FUBARS the average, but helps explain the alarming warming found in the arctic.
          WUWT found this gem a couple of years ago.
          Last winter U.S.A NOAA, says cannot use record lows from Alaska, equipment only accurate to -40,
          2010 Environment Canada, in answer to a FOI, our weather stations mostly FUBAR, been that way since 1991, no money or manpower to fix..meanwhile these wasters are bragging about spending $4 billion on researching Climate Change.
          I think its time to really hype up the fear, madame guillotine shall sing.

          Funny thing, by my calculations government at all levels have priced themselves off the market.
          It is more profitable for me to stay inside my tribe, produce only what we need, can protect or carry, than to continue to buy the illusion of civilization and have government rip me off every time I cooperate .
          It is obvious govt will not protect my life and they protect our property by expropriating it for themselves.


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            John Brookes

            Except that the arctic is warming alarmingly.


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            Sonny

            Maybe the arctic is warming due to subterranean heat source?
            A result of wandering magnetic or physical pole? More sun exposure?

            Why does it have to be CO2 related?
            Why did people have to be blamed?

            (oh yes you have one of those CO2 science type jobs!!!)

            Hang onto the warming arctic John. Hang on for dear life!


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            Streetcred

            It’s summer jb and the particular warming that you refer to is localised.


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            Backslider

            @John Brooks – You say that the Arctic is warming alarmingly. You are of course aware that the latest hype is that this will cause a two degree drop in the surface temperature of the whole earth? (James Hansen – NASA). That’s supposedly from melting iceburgs cooling the sea. Do you really think that the arctic has not previously had weather events?


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    BTW have a look at the latest abc hype I wrote a comment pointing out that it might be more useful to point out the degree of real pollution to the water and the land experienced in China, where all the solar panels and wind turbines are now made, rather than making something up about the great barrier reef – I’m not holding my breath on it getting through the ABC PC comment cutter..


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    Dave

    .
    Is it Extreme People or Climate Idiots?

    America’s Al Gore, India’s Dr Pachauri and Britain’s Professor Phil Jones are nothing compared to Australias own Prof Ross Garnaut:

    1.Professor Garnaut was forced to resign as Chairman of PNG’s biggest mining company OK Tedi.
    2.Professor Garnaut has had a travel ban imposed on him by PNG’s Prime Minister Peter O’Neill.
    3.Professor Garnaut is a director of Highlands Pacific.
    4.Professor Garnaut resigned from the position of chairman of PNGSDP

    Even the stock market (points 1 to 4 copied from link) is not happy with this jet setting environmental destroyer.

    The mad professor was telling everyone through his Garnaut Report that temperature was killing the Great Barrier Reef, The Murray Darling River System, Ningaloo Reef and Kakadu National Park. All burnt up in massive heat waves that will kill everyone. Meanwhile – Prof Ross was in PNG destorying river systems over 47 years, dumping millions of tonnes of heavy metals and toxic sludge into oceans all around PNG. A true environmental criminal that is still making millions from this pollution.

    Now Prof Stephen Howes from ANU believes the AUS government must come out publicly and condemn PNG for its action against this criminal. Dream on Howes.

    Prof Ross is finished as a consultant in all industries world wide.

    Little Prof Ross & Prof Howes seem to be lnked to the ABC.

    Now the Extreme Hyper Heat Wave is on Prof Roasts.


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      Dennis

      Professor Garnaut is a typical socialist, that’s why they use him to spread their lies.


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        Dave

        .
        Not quite a socialist – but he advocates making money over the life of women who are suffering in his toxic waste dumps. God – they are just trying to survive. He wants the AUS Govt to revoke his travel ban? Stop killing people Prof Ross.

        Here is a very ugly side of Prof Ross Garnauts actions in PNG:

        Women continue to die on the Fly River

        Prof Ross Garnaut is not interested in people – only money – he is an environmental crook who should be charged with crimes against humanity. Oh, sorry Prof Ross – you can take me to court and you will not win – I can vouch for that. The original money maker out of Kevin Rudd who paid for his stupid Garnaut Report. This guy Prof Ross is only one of many involved in this fraud of CAGW.

        Goodbye Prof Ross and Prof Tim Falnnery is not far behind him.


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          Andrew McRae

          The idea that only capitalists pollute nature is ridiculous. The communist countries invariably have far worse environmental records than the lightly-regulated free market countries.

          e.g. #1 the Techa river in the Chelyabinsk region of (ex-USSR) Russia. The most polluted river in the world. It was estimated in the 1990s that standing next to the banks of the river for one hour would bump up your chances of cancer several-fold. It was just downstream from the 1950s Soviet Union’s biggest nuclear materials refinery and atomic warhead factory.

          e.g. #2 China today.

          The only plausible explanation I can think of is… when people own land, and had to work hard to keep it, or had to risk collateral to get loans to buy it, they tend to take care of it better than a State company who has it handed to them for free by a totalitarian regime that doesn’t care about its people anyway.

          Our Saviour, Ludwig The Wise, told us:

          In the central and western areas of continental Europe, where the institution of private property had been rigidly established for many centuries, things were different [from America]. There was no question of soil erosion of formerly cultivated land. There was no problem of forest devastation in spite of the fact that the domestic forests had been for ages the only source of lumber for construction and mining and of fuel for heating and for the foundries and furnaces, the potteries and the glass factories. The owners of the forests were impelled to conservation by their own selfish interests. In the most densely inhabited and industrialized areas up to a few years ago between a fifth and a third of the surface was still covered by first-class forests managed according to the methods of scientific forestry.
          - Ludwig von Mises, Human Action, Part 4, Chapter XXIII, para 43.

          That is your meritorious daily Mises dose.


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            Roy Hogue

            Some of us, including me, have been preaching the benefit of self-interest for years.

            It falls on deaf ears. You might as well talk to a rock.

            Come to think of it, a rock has a better chance of understanding the argument than our so-called leaders.


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    Dennis

    Has anyone noticed comment from the alarmists about “greenhouse gas emissions”? Why is CO2 the focus now? As we all know CO2 is not a problem gas.


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      Sonny

      CO2 is a byproduct of near every useful reaction on earth.
      They want to ban CO2 because they are, by their very nature, [snip crass insult]

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        John Brookes

        Well that certainly explains it. I had no idea until now Sonny.


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        Mattb

        “CO2 is a byproduct of near every useful reaction on earth.”

        Is it? how many useful chemical reacions are there and how many produce CO2?


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          Sonny

          You want a high school chemistry lesson? Careful, education may cause you to start thinking… Unless ofcourse you are educated in school within the last few years in which science 101 has been replaced with statist propaganda 101


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            Mattb

            I think my Chemistry training is adequate to know that “CO2 is” NOT “a byproduct of near every useful reaction on earth.”

            Let’s play: I’ll start with photosynthesis


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            Bruce of Newcastle

            Well that one is easy. Plants absorb CO2, water and photons by the C3 or C4 pathways to produce food for themselves. They then burn the food using oxygen and produce CO2 as a byproduct. Therefore CO2 is a byproduct of the photosynthetic pathway, when you look at all of it.

            But on the other hand I will agree with you Matt as someone who has produced 50 odd chemicals new to man (at least according to Chem Abs). Yes you are right there are many many chemical reactions and few of them exhale CO2. But pCO2 above about 150 ppmV is essential to the current balance of life on this planet. Without this concentration much of the ecosphere would die. Humans might not, some of them. But on balance there is a whole lot of data saying increased pCO2 is beneficial. To ignore this is simple ostriching.

            For bonus points you can explain to us why plant porphrins have magnesium but animal porphrins use iron.


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            Bruce of Newcastle

            Rats, I forgot how to spell ‘porphyrins’. Been a while since uni.


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            Sonny

            Hmm the most useful reaction:

            C6H12O6 + 6O2 — 6CO2 + 6H2O + 38 ATP

            This one allows you to convert sugar into energy to live.

            Next?


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            Mattb

            Bruce – where have I suggested that CO2 is not essential to life? Not too hot, not too cold, but just right…


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            Mattb

            Sonny you can list as many as you like and it does not help your argument that near every useful reaction on earth produces CO2.


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            Bruce of Newcastle

            I never said that Matt, nor did I mean to imply you believe otherwise. I apologise if you thought this.

            I was making a related point, which is that while CO2 is chemically not involved in many biological reactions, it IS essential to life AND more of it leads to improved biosphere productivity.


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    pat

    good news:

    Sluggish German economy forces EU carbon to record low
    LONDON, Jan 17 (Reuters Point Carbon) – EU carbon prices hit a fresh record low on Thursday as poor economic data from Germany and relatively healthy supply of coal continued to force European power and coal prices lower…
    http://www.pointcarbon.com/news/1.2142679

    California downplays possibility of Australia CO2 market link
    DAVIS, CALIFORNIA, Jan 16 (Reuters Point Carbon) – California officials said they have no plans to sign any agreement with Australia linking their carbon markets down the road, despite interest on the part of Australian officials to expand its coming emissions trading system…
    http://www.pointcarbon.com/news/1.2141217?&ref=searchlist


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  • #

    Whether it’s “climate change” or not is not a “proof” that climate change is man-made rather than natural. These are the reasons Hansen was wrong …

    It should be clear from the recent comments on Roy Spencer’s latest thread that Jeff Conlon (owner of “The Air Vent” website) was wrong in assuming that microbolometers (infra red thermometers) disproved what Prof Claes Johnson said about how one-way spontaneous radiation cannot transfer heat from a cooler source to a warmer target.

    My March 2012 paper “Radiated Energy and the Second Law of Thermodynamics” was in large part a review of what Claes had written. He and I are in frequent communication, along with about half a dozen core members of PSI who really know their physics, and we have not been proven to be incorrect on any of this by anyone offering a valid rebuttal based on valid physics.

    The significance of what Claes proved in “Computational Blackbody Radiation” is that back radiation cannot affect the rate of cooling by non-radiative processes. The latter account for at least two-thirds of all the thermal energy transferred from the surface to the atmosphere.

    The rate of cooling by non-radiative processes is slowed, not by back radiation, but by the presence of all air molecules at a very close temperature at the surface/atmosphere boundary. These air molecules are at the temperature they are, because Loschmidt was right and his physics, nearly 150 years old, has stood the test of time, and now been proven correct empirically. A thermal gradient does develop autonomously in a gravitational field and is more than sufficient to explain that “33 degrees of warming” supposedly due to WV and GHG. So the greenhouse is demolished and falls to the ground, which it never was warming in the first place. QED.

    Doug Cotton
    http://climate-change-theory.com


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    John Westman

    After hearing about the supposed record temperatures, and the rubbish (junk “science”) that accompanied it, I decided to have a look at the records for my home city of Wagga. What William Kininmonth had to say is also reflected in the temperature record for Wagga

    I also had to look at two different data sets and work out the anomaly between both. The anomaly was 1.05C in the daily maxima with the older station recording the warmer temperatures.

    However, the result was unequivocal. The current hot spell is precedented.

    1896 Wagga experienced the hottest monthly mean max of 38.1C. There were 13 days =/over 40C (temps unadjusted for the anomaly). The average long term mean maxima, in January is about 31.5C. The current mean maximum for January 2013 is 35.5C, some 4C above the average.

    1897; 1898; 1932, 1939, and 1946 were other years with well above the average temperatures, for January.


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      john robertson

      John where did you go for data?
      I ask cause my local record high temp, july 1947, has been reduced in the official data, they have rewritten history, I’m hoping to get to the local museum to check the written record.
      The online record has changed from 36C to 30C so as to allow a more recent record unprecedented ever high of 32C.
      Course they forgot to organize a book burning, turn in your history books, save the future.


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        John Westman

        Hi John,

        The info came from the BOM web site. I had to navigate some distance and locate the closed stations. In Wagga’s case these were Kooringal and Ag Research.

        Go to the Wagga historical data and click on the box for closed stations. Kooringal has the best continuous record with most data “quality controlled”, whatever that means. I was able to establish the anomaly between the two stations as there is overlapping data for 8 years, 1943-1950. As a matter of interest the highest recorded temperature for Wagga was in 1897 at 47.2C. If we adjust for the anomaly this then comes 46.15C
        I am going to download the data for those years, just in case BOM thinks a “review” is needed.


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        John Westman

        Hi again John,

        I challenge everyone to do what I have done and check the records for their locality. Particularly, for the years that I have mentioned as being very hot. It is likely that Wagga is simply representative and that other regions will also be hot.

        The years to keep in mind are: 1896; 1897; 1898; 1932; 1939, and 1946.


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          john robertson

          hi John Thanks, thats what I noticed on Environment Canada’s site, they show Quality Controlled numbers only now.The as recorded numbers are gone.
          5 years ago the record high for Yellowknife NWT, on EC web site matched the record high in my History of Yellowknife book.
          Now is quality controlled from 36 to 30C.
          The historical data has been butchered by an organization that can barely do a 1 day forecast.My lying eyes work better.


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  • #

    I might have missed discussion on this but have any of you critiqued this release from BOM

    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/scs43c.pdf


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      Mark D.

      It simply shows to me that it is really bad to have a carbon tax. The rest of the world isn’t anywhere near this warm.

      On the other hand I read this:

      Note: This statement is based on data available as of 14 January 2013 which may be subject to change
      as a result of standard quality control procedures.

      which leaves me thinking.


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      • #

        Mark- everyone checks their data, don’t go getting all conspiratorial. Lucky that transcription errors are mostly a thing of the past. Sixes and Zeros, ones and sevens and transcribers reading handwriting from someone else (possibly educated elsewhere and with different style).

        There was a paper on this but buggered if I can remember the details, but it does make me wonder about how errors like this are controlled for.


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          Crakar24

          Everyone GA?????

          Lets go and test the robustness of that claim.

          Early in August 2012, the NOAA issued a statement to the effect that July 2012 had been the hottest month in the contiguous U.S. since records began in 1895. NOAA said the July 2012 temperature had been 77.6 degrees Fahrenheit, 0.2 F° warmer than the previous July record, set in 1936.
          However, NOAA’s statement was based on incomplete information that has since been revised. Updated data available at the NCDC website (NCDC is the division of NOAA that maintains national climatic data for the United States) show that July 2012’s temperature was not 77.6 °F, as NOAA had previously claimed, but 76.9 °F, half a degree Fahrenheit below the record 77.4 °F set in July 1936.

          Even this revised value may be a considerable exaggeration. In response to criticisms of the siting of U.S. temperature monitoring stations, in 2008 NOAA introduced a new network of carefully sited stations with up-to-date, standardized, properly monitored equipment. The Climate Reference Network, as it is called, shows that the July temperature for the continental U.S. was 75.6 °F, lower by 1.3 °F than stated by the NOAA in August 2012 based on incomplete data from its older, poorly-sited stations influenced by urban heat-island effects, and lower by 2 full Fahrenheit degrees than the 77.6 °F that NOAA had published in August 2012.

          For some unaccountable reason, NOAA has not issued any statement correcting its original false claim that July 2012 was the warmest July since 1895. Indeed, the accurately-sited and properly-maintained Climate Reference Network is consistently delivering significantly lower contiguous-US temperatures than the older network: yet, again unaccountably, NOAA finds it expedient not to draw attention to the inconvenient results from its new network.

          So once again GA your emotional squealings in support of a theory deeply rooted in faith based religion has been found to be erroneous.

          Read it all here

          http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/originals/two_decades_no_warming.pdf


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    Peter Champness

    John Brookes

    But of course the world is warming, fairly rapidly. And you don’t need more 40+ days to prove it.

    Well if the world is warming, fairly rapidly, it should show up in the temperature record. But it does not. If you don’t need more 40+ days to prove it how will you prove it.——————————————————————————–


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      John Brookes

      Sydney, today, 18th January 2013, maximum 45.8, 0.5 degrees higher than previous highest max in 1939.


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        Sonny

        Fuck John it must be CO2. There is no other explanation.


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        John Westman

        John have you heard about the UHI effect and how it corrupts the temperature data? Do you understand how buildings and trees slow down wind speeds and restrict the dispersal of the heat build up in a large metropolis? Have you searched the records back before 1939?

        Do you understand why the bushfires are so severe at the moment? After 2 years of extreme wet Australian trees, bushes, and shrubs are full of leaf and most are replete with flammable oils. Thus when they are subjected to heat and dryness they become very flammable leading to a conflagration.

        Don’t let the facts get in the way of your belief system, John.


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        Backslider

        Where do you get that from John, the media? Its currently not available on the BOM website: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/IDCJDW2124.latest.shtml


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    Wow, Alice Springs not record yet?

    Cherry picking much Jo?


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      Sonny

      Maxine can you please try once, JUST ONCE to write an intelligent comment free from alarmist memes.

      Phrases to avoid:

      “cherry picking”
      “heads in the sand”
      “worse than we thought”
      “arctic melting”
      “think tanks”

      This list is not definitive. My point is that you need to demonstrate to us some modicum of intelligence to gain credibility.

      So far you have come across as a hypnotized slave to mass media groupthink.

      Please, for your own sake and for the sake of the environmental cause you hold dear, start thinking and avoid regurgitating!


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    • #
      wayne, s. Job

      People with one track minds, that play over in a continuos loop like a cockpit voice recorder but has no new input, is over time less than useful. Listening to an intoned mantra is a religious thing and accepting the chief beliefs of the faith are a personal thing.

      I have always been averse to people invading my space telling me how wrong and bad I am for not following their beliefs. Has it or does it ever occur to you Maxamillion that you are not a prophet and do not hold the keys to knowledge and wisdom.

      Pretending you do, does you no favours, the real science points in the opposite direction to your blind faith. With every passing week your prophets of doom are proving to have feet of clay.

      Come forth with one real provable fact that is not manipulated that can be proved by scientific method and we will believe you about CAGW.


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  • #
    Crakar24

    That flea bitten dog is back.


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  • #
    Backlider

    I find it remarkable that older records are scaled down, rather than up.

    If we are to look at the method of measuring temperature with a Stevenson screen, its very easy to see that these boxes will in fact record far higher temperatures than with how things were done way back then: http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2008/10/mina-nv-stevenson-screen-with-wmr-968.jpg

    A Stevenson screen is simply a louvered wooden box sitting out in the sun, essentially a little hot box. If you look at the journals from way back you will find that the thermometers were always placed in a very well shaded area, away from influences such as the hot ground you can see in the photo of the Stevenson screen. Were the two methods to be put together on the same day, the Stevenson screen box will always record a significantly higher temperature.

    The anectotal evidence that temperatures in the 1800′s were significantly higher is overwhelming.

    As for bush fires. Why do we have more bush fires? We have significantly more arsonists and plain idiots.


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    • #
      KinkyKeith

      Hi BS

      One of the main reasons we have more bush-fires is to do with reduction of undergrowth widely.

      Up until 40 years ago when PC took over responsibility for our safety, it was common practice to do hazard reduction burns to thin out dangerous kindling from parks, reserves and private property.

      It is now essentially illegal to carry out HRBs and we now have avoidable events like Vic 2009 taking 173 lives for the sake of a delusion about man and nature living in harmony.

      KK


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  • #
    Sonny

    Why does Jo’s forum not attract new alarmists? ?
    It’s just the same worn out old dogs.

    I think they are dieing out.

    When did becoming an unethical scam artist or a blind cult member go out of fashion?


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  • #
    Backslider

    From the Canberra Times today:

    Canberra sets new record for January temperature

    Bureau of Meteorology’s latest observations put the day’s high point at 41.6 degrees. It is the hottest January day since records began in 1939.

    Read more: http://www.canberratimes.com.au/environment/weather/canberra-sets-new-record-for-january-temperature-20130118-2cy72.html#ixzz2ILo9zc4q

    I grew up in Canberra. The above is an out an out absolute fabrication and a lie.


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    • #
      Nice One

      Can you please show us your records and weather site?


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      • #
        Backslider

        The “Weather site” is the BOM site, however we can no longer trust their records, they have all been revised.

        However, growing up in Canberra I recall many times the temperature pushing higher than 41.6. That was in the weather reports from BOM after the news every day. Dec – Feb was always very hot in the 70′s.


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        • #
          Nice One

          LOL, so instead of thermometers we’re supposed to trust your memory???????? No thanks.


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          • #
            Backslider

            Don’t be ridiculous. Nobody has asked you to do any such thing. It’s known as “anecdotal evidence”. If you are truly interested, then you would investigate it….. and find out that what I said is perfectly correct. Look up the old news papers, which all had data from BOM.

            41.6 degrees is not unusually hot for a good Canberra summer, just ask anybody who has lived there since the 60′s.

            I am not here to prove anything whatsoever to you.


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          • #
            Backslider

            I really like how BOM have now nudged the figure up by 0.4 degrees: Canberra Weather – January

            This shows just how reliable BOM now is, being overrun CC chicken littles who believe that telling lies if justifiable in support of “the message”.

            In truth, we really do not know exactly how hot it was on Friday.


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          • #
            Nice One

            Look up the old news papers, which all had data from BOM.

            From what BOM site were they taken? The airport was only open since 2008. How do you suggest they be homogenised with other site information? Or are you incorrectly making direct comparison without making adjustments for change of site?

            I really like how BOM have now nudged the figure up by 0.4 degrees

            Newpaper reports typically use the set of data updated every 30 minutes.

            Unfortunately “highs” aren’t well trained and don’t always fall on the half-hour.

            See –> http://www.bom.gov.au/act/observations/canberra.shtml – “High Temp °C time”

            The final “records” are taken from the full set of data.

            But good on you for taking the time to show us how much you know.


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          • #
            Backslider

            “making adjustments for change of site?”

            Ahh yes, we forgot the figure fudging. At least you admit it. This only goes to show that the methods used are not reliable. Tell me somthing: Who decides when and by how much figure must be fudged? A computer?? Have you ever read any George Orwell?

            “Newpaper reports typically use the set of data updated every 30 minutes.”

            If you care to read the report, they took the day’s peak temperature, further adding “At 3.30pm it was about 39.7 degrees.”


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  • #
    Backslider

    star comment
    The headlines everywhere are screaming “Heatwave!!! Global Warming!!!” again all over the place, just because Sydney has a warm day:

    Sydney

    Two warm days in a month does not constitute a heatwave.


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    • #
      Mark

      Indeed.

      Two warm days… ten days apart…. in Oz….. in summer.

      Aaaarrrrrgh. We’re all gonna die!

      (Well, we will some time or other.)


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      • #
        Backslider

        I’ve updated the image to include the so called “record” Friday, which was not yet up there when I took the original screeny.

        Please note how BOM’s reported 41.6 degrees has now been conveniently nudged up by 0.4 degrees to 42C.


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  • #
    Backslider

    From Julie Evans, a meteorologist and spokesperson for The Bureau of Meteorology on Sydney’s hot day:

    “Without a sea breeze it meant we had westerly winds billowing across the city, gathering heat off the roads and concrete buildings”

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/data-point/lack-of-sea-breeze-leaves-sydneysiders-to-bake-20130118-2cyre.html#ixzz2INO801Zd

    Nice to see a reasonable explanation for a change rather than all the chicken little squarking. Thus, whether its the highest recorded temperature or not, the fact that the heat is significantly increased by development puts paid to any argument that its particularly hotter than ever before.


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  • #
    Nice One

    [Snip. Duplicate]


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  • #
    2 Bobs Worth

    I love going through statistical data to prove a point, especially when you use the BOM’s own data to prove a point.
    The ABC and other government mouthpieces are sprouting the recent hot weather in Sydney a proof of CAGW and the climate-change
    gullibles (c-gulls, I like to call them) are shrieking louder than ever. If I hear another extreme when referring to what, for
    Australia is normal seasonal weather, I’ll throw something large and heavy at whatever media outlet is on.
    Here are some facts about Sydney’s so-called extreme temperatures. Seeing as January 2013 is only part-way through, I’ll take the 2012
    mean maximum for January which is 26.1 C.at Observatory Hill as the most recent. Since records began for Sydney, and the BOM has records beginning
    in 1859 for this site,the mean maximum January temperature of 26.1C has been exceeded in no fewer than 61 years of which 41 years existed prior to 1980 when CAGW was alledgedly beginning. What that means is you can expect the latest mean monthly maximum of 26.1C to be equalled or exceeded in two out of every five years. This is hardly the sign of unusual or extreme weather conditions. In fact, the figures prove just how average the current weather is for this time of year. Funny thing, have you ever noticed that the hooter the weather, the louder real sea-gulls squawk?


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  • #
    Nice One

    Your graph is missing 2013 data. When comparing 2013 against the rest of the record, it would seem sensible to show 2013 data as itsnotnova does.

    http://itsnotnova.wordpress.com/2013/01/18/alice-its-unusual/

    (The reason for that is because the month has 12 days left before it can be called a month to reduce the cherrypicking you complain so often about) CTS


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    • #
      Nice One

      (The reason for that is because the month has 12 days left before it can be called a month to reduce the cherrypicking you complain so often about) CTS

      Then you’d be premature to call it “nothing special”.


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      • #
        Backslider

        What you are in fact saying Nice One is that the graph on itsnotnova is an outright falsification. How can they possibly give an average temperature for January with the month not completed? Yet they have done exactly that.

        The point of the graph here was to show there had been previous heatwaves, not to make a comparison.

        Tthe graph on itsnotnova is a desperate lie.


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        • #
          Nice One

          Wrong Backslider. Note Jo’s words.

          William Kinninmonth points out that the long term data on the red hot centre of Australia shows that this January is not unusual.

          itsnotnova state, on the graph and in the text, that they are only using the current available data for Jan. That data shows it is currently well ABOVE previous monthly max temps.

          Jo/Will are wrong to conclude it is nothing out of the ordinary:
          - because they don’t compare against the current data OR
          - because they exluce the current data

          Take your pick.

          But then of course you’re left with the problem of being one site, in one year, rather than the majority of the country.


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          • #
            Backslider

            You really are desperate. Alice Springs in not “the red hot centre of Australia”. Its only a part of it. The graph of Alice Springs is only an example and does not purport to represent the entire central Australia.

            The itsnotnova graph on the other hand purports to show that this January was significantly different for Alice Springs than at other times by giving a fabricated peak for January.

            I accept the words of a very experienced and well respected climatologist rather than chicken little squarking about “global warming”.

            I have myself lived for many years in Australia’s outback and know first hand that it is in fact nothing unusual… it comes and goes in cycles, as all weather events do.

            When will you accept the prevailing scientific view that climate events do not indicate global warming?


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          • #
            Nice One

            The graph of Alice Springs is only an example and does not purport to represent the entire central Australia.

            I know. It’s not me trying to use Alice Springs to represent the whole country.

            The itsnotnova graph on the other hand purports to show that this January was significantly different for Alice Springs than at other times by giving a fabricated peak for January.

            The itsnotnova graph states exactly what it represents. It does not try to establish that Jan is different, but it does show that you CANNOT say at the moment that Jan is not unusual.

            William Kininmonth is is a retired meteorologist, NOT a climatologist. He has never published peer-reviewed research on the topic. But he says what you want to hear, so yes by all means go ahead and swallow whatever he says and ignore those that publish climate research.

            I have myself lived for many years in Australia’s outback

            LOL. More anecdotal evidence!


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          • #
            Backslider

            Wow Nice One! I don’t know how you can sit there and out and out lie:

            “The itsnotnova graph states exactly what it represents. It does not try to establish that Jan is different, but it does show that you CANNOT say at the moment that Jan is not unusual.”

            Lets just take a look at what it says:

            1. The Topic: “Alice – It’s unusual”
            2. “Here’s how the graph would appear with the first 17 days of this year included.” Nope, thats a fabrication, we don’t have data for the whole month.
            3. “Nothing special – aside from it being the highest average maximum temp (so far).” This proves its an out and out fabrication. How can they possibly calculate the “average maximum temp” without all the data?

            The article is the epitome of stupidity.

            William Kininmonth headed Australia’s National Climate Centre at the Bureau of Meteorology from 1986 to 1998, He was Australia’s delegate to the WMO Commission for Climatology, was a member of Australia’s delegations to the Second World Climate Conference (1990) and the subsequent intergovernmental negotiations for the Framework Convention on Climate Change (1991–1992).

            Clearly he is a nobody….

            Anecdotal evidence, yes. Clearly you are not aware of its value in scientific research, but then, you are not a scientist, are you? Tell me something. Whenever you have a conversation with somebody, do you ask them for peer reviewed scientific research to support everything they say?


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        • #
          Nice One

          The data (to date) is available and that’s what itsnotnova uses. You canget ityourself if you like and repeat.

          http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/data/

          Clearly he is a nobody….

          In terms of having performed any science, I strongly agree with you.

          However he does seem to have some managerial skills. Whoopeee!

          Clearly you are not aware of its value in scientific research

          Versus thermometers making actual recordings of the temperature. No, I am not a big fan.


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          • #
            Backslider

            “The data (to date) is available and that’s what itsnotnova uses.”

            We are talking about a *monthly* average, which naturally requires a full month of data in order to calculate. To put a partial month calculation within a graph of full month calculations is plainly dishonest. Is that your website is it?


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      • #
        Backslider

        There you go folks!! I have updated the itsnotnova graph in post#46 to show the true figures. From the speculated 42.5C we have an actual figure for the month of 39.9C, certainly not the highest peak on the graph.

        You can find the figures from BOM here: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/201301/pdf/IDCJDW8002.201301.pdf

        Tell me Nice One, will your friends over there now update their graph? (not likely!)


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  • #
    Backslider

    “Versus thermometers making actual recordings of the temperature. No, I am not a big fan.”

    That’s fine. Now please show us those records which demonstrate your point.


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  • #
    Backslider

    Here is a modified copy of the itsnotnova graph, with the temperature point for 2013 falsified by itsnotnova marked in red. I will update this when the data is in :-)

    itsnotnova falsification


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    • #
      Nice One

      http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/IDCJDW8002.latest.shtml

      1st 40.3
      2nd 41.6
      3rd 42.9
      4th 43.7
      5th 42.7
      6th 43.5
      7th 43.1
      8th 43.7
      9th 42.9
      10th 42.1
      11th 44.1
      12th 44.4
      13th 44
      14th 41.8
      15th 40.8
      16th 40.2
      17th 40.1

      Average : 42.46 which seems to match the plot by itsnotnova

      I agree the entire monthly data is not yet available, so how can Jo/Will justify the following statement with incomplete data?

      “William Kinninmonth points out that the long term data on the red hot centre of Australia shows that this January is not unusual.”

      Either the statement is incorrect because they use NO data, or they would be incorrect even if they tried to use what partial data is available.

      Sure, by all means update it. You still have the problem:

      “The recent heatwave is exceptional for being so widespread and not just happening in one location like Alice Springs.”

      As for Nova’s claim “As if a four week hot spell is finally “evidence” that 120 years of man-made activities is changing the climate.”, no one is claiming this. That’s a strawman argument.

      What they are saying, is that the recent heatwave is record breaking in that it recorded the highest nationwide maximum on record and that the first 8 days of this year are amoungst the top 20 on record.


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      • #
        Backslider

        There you go Nice One, I have updated the graph. What do you say now?


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        • #
          Nice One

          Like I said before. You still have the problem:

          “The recent heatwave is exceptional for being so widespread and not just happening in one location like Alice Springs.”

          As for Nova’s claim “As if a four week hot spell is finally “evidence” that 120 years of man-made activities is changing the climate.”, no one is claiming this. That’s a strawman argument.

          What they are saying, is that the recent heatwave is record breaking in that it recorded the highest nationwide maximum on record and that the first 8 days of this year are amoungst the top 20 on record.

          And stats in from the BOM for the past month:

          The national anomaly was +2.28 °C, a substantial increase on the previous record of +2.17 °C in January 1932.

          This continues the string of very-warm months observed in Australia since spring last year, and again saw heatwaves across the continent.


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          • #
            Backslider

            I don’t have a problem at all.

            The heatwave was exceptional for being widespread? Sure it was, in relation to normal every day weather, however that does not mean that it was by any means unique – Australia has had many widespread heatwaves.

            Was it really so widespread? Sure, some places had some pretty high temperatures, but if I look for example at Canberra, which is right in the smack bang of everything in the east of Australia, all I see is a typical hot Canberra summer: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/201201/html/IDCJDW2801.201201.shtml

            You will find the same all over the east of Australia – normal hot summer and in many places unusually cool. This whole thing has been beat up big time by warmists, no doubt about that. It was not record breaking at all.

            You still have the problem of the fabricated graph and no answer for it.


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          • #
            Nice One

            You think you can prove it wasn’t sidespread by picking one location? That’s daft, try again.

            The stats I show ARE for Australia, not just one location, not just the coast, the entire country.

            Nationally it set new records, both for the hottest day and the hottest January.

            As for the graph, it was not a fabrication. itsnotnova showed the data AT THAT POINT IN TIME, highlighting that it was not possible for William to yet claim that Alice springs was not unusual. itsnotvoa was very clear that the data was not a monthly average.


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          • #
            Dave

            .
            Nice One – you say:

            itsnotvoa was very clear that the data was not a monthly average.

            WTF is itsnotvoa?

            A new sort of drug maybe?


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          • #
            Backslider

            “sidespread” ? I don’t know what you are talking about… “itsnotvoa”…. he he.

            What stats are you showing? I don’t see any stats, only a fabricated graph over on that silly website. Yes, it was completely fabricated.

            As for the opinion of William Kininmonth – he did not try to fabricate stats, but rather he pointed out that there was nothing unusual in the weather, which the stats now show quite clearly to be the case.

            You purport that this “heatwave” was “so widespread”, yet for central Australia, it was normal weather, just as the stats show. I gave you an example of Canberra, which also is perfectly normal. I think you will find that Melbourne was particularly cool. So, my challenge to you is this: Please provide the stats that supposedly prove what you are saying.

            That does not mean to post links to alarmist statements, whether they be from BOM or anywhere else – I mean STATS.


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          • #
            Nice One

            Of course you dont see any stats. You only see what you want to see.

            Perhaps take a longer, more thorough look.

            http://joannenova.com.au/2013/01/william-kininmonth-is-it-extreme-weather-or-climate-change/#comment-1234396

            William can’t say there is nothing unusual about the nations weather by looking only at Alice Springs. That’s just as dumb as thinking Canberra represents the nation’s weather.


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          • #
            Backslider

            No, I do not see you stats that prove your “exceptional heatwave”.

            The alarmist at BOM who wrote that summary is very creative, telling us that a 0.11 degree difference in the anomaly was “a substantial increase”. I would be more inclined to believe that both UHI and BOM fiddling the data has pushed up the numbers.

            I see absolutely no proof of your supposed “exceptional heatwave”. None.

            William Kininmonth was perfectly correct when stating that there was nothing unusual. There wasn’t.


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          • #
            Rereke Whakaaro

            Nice One doesn’t do evidence, Backslider.

            Ask for evidence and he goes away and sulks.


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          • #
            Nice One

            The national anomaly was +2.28 °C, a substantial increase on the previous record of +2.17 °C in January 1932.

            Deal with it. ;)


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          • #
            Backslider

            As I said: a 0.11 degree difference

            Squark! Squark! The sky is falling!! The sky is falling!!

            0.11 degrees ….. I would liken that to the breeze dropping for a moment.

            Where are your stats for “exceptional heatwave” ? Oh right, that’s just more squarking.


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          • #
            Nice One

            It’s exceptional in that they don’t occur too often. Let me know when the last one of this scale and magnitude happened????

            Oh, that’s right, it’s NEVER happened before.


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          • #
            Rereke Whakaaro

            Oh, that’s right, it’s NEVER happened before.

            What NEVER? That is a big word. A real scientist would avoid using that word, because of the Provability Paradox, ergo we have definitive evidence that you are not a real scientist, only a wannabe. Mind you, there wasn’t much doubt previously, was there, but it is nice to get confirmation.

            … the last one of this scale and magnitude …

            And what, precisely, do you mean by this scale? You have not previously mentioned a scale, in fact, I cannot recall you previously mentioning any system of measurement, other than loosely referring to “temperature” and “degrees,” and without mentioning any baseline at all. And without knowing the scale being used, the relative term, magnitude has no practical meaning either.

            I am not sure why you waste your time coming to this blog, since you never fail to demonstrate your lack of education and intellect, not to mention your dearth of social skills.


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          • #
            Backslider

            Oh, that’s right, it’s NEVER happened before.

            What never happened before? Please show me the data that explains what you are trying to say.

            While you are at it, please show me the reports of birds and bats dropping dead out of the sky, then I may believe we are talking about something that never happened before.


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          • #
            Nice One

            The heatwave was “outside the envelope of experience”. Suck it up princesses!


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          • #
            Rereke Whakaaro

            The heat wave was “outside the envelope of experience”.

            Who’s experience are you referring to?

            Are you speaking from personal experience?

            Do you have any evidence at all, that the heat wave was “outside the envelope of experience”?

            Are you referring to “experience” imputed by adjusted and homogenised data that is then smoothed and further manipulated by computer models?

            Or are you excluding the thousands of years of human inhabitation and experience prior to the first white settlers? And if so, on what grounds?

            All you are demonstrating here, is that you are not very bright, you have no ability to think rationally and critically, you are unable to provide any evidence in support your position, and have absolutely no ability to engage in a grown-up discussion.

            You are making nobody look a fool, apart from yourself.


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  • #
    Grad

    Didn’t you just contradict yourself massively Joanne. You just posted about about some Boris Johnson nobody saying the climate in the UK is getting colder and then say it is the weather for Australia!. Is it weather or climate?? You can’t just take what suits you to fuel your misleading blog.


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