GUEST POST: Dr David Evans and Professor Bob Carter
Their Latest Scary Forecast
The latest from the Climate Commission is very, very scary:
[I just love this graph. It's so over-the-top, it's like a "Pepsi-climate" ad -JN]
They reckon we have to stabilize carbon dioxide emissions immediately or we’ll fry. But these forecasts are based solely on what are essentially the same faulty climate models as in 1988, and are similarly exaggerated.
Their Earlier Scary Forecast Was Bunk
U.S. government climate scientists started the climate scare with a forecast to the U.S. Congress in 1988 which was based on climate models. Here it is, with the actual temperature that eventuated later added in red:
The three forecasts (black lines) are for three scenarios:
A. Carbon dioxide levels grow exponentially (top line, solid).
B. Carbon dioxide levels grow linearly (middle line, dashed).
C. Carbon dioxide emissions cut back so atmospheric CO2 stopped going up by 2000 (bottom line, dotted).
The carbon dioxide levels that occurred in reality were almost exactly those in scenario A, so it is the topmost line that is the relevant forecast.
Obviously the planet’s temperature (red line) hasn’t increased nearly as much as they forecast. After the temperature peak in 1998 (a strong El Nino year), the temperature appears to have leveled off. The temperature is only shown here to the beginning of 2010: in 2010 (another strong El Nino year) it peaked at the 0.6 degree line (cooler than in 1998), and as of March 2011 is plunging below the 0.4 degree line.
The planet is now cooler than what they forecast would happen if the world had savagely reduced its carbon emissions starting then in 1988.
Their theory and climate models are essentially the same now as then – the “science was settled” long ago. So why should the Australian public take the current alarmist forecasts of the Climate commission seriously?
The source of the planet’s temperature above are satellites, which measure temperatures 24/7 over nearly all the land and oceans without bias.
The Climate Commission, after the IPCC, use only the land thermometers to measure the global temperature, in what can only be described as “cheating”.
The official thermometers are often located in the warm exhaust of air conditioning outlets, over hot tarmac at airports where they get blasts of hot air from jet engines, at wastewater plants where they get warmth from decomposing sewage, or in hot cities choked with cars and buildings. Global warming is measured in tenths of a degree, so any extra heating nudge is important. In the US, nearly 90% of official thermometers surveyed by volunteers violate official siting requirements that they not be too close to an artificial heating source.
They use selected thermometers in warming locations, and call the results “global” warming. Anyone can understand that this is cheating: how can these thermometers possibly distinguish increased use of air conditioners, more aircraft traffic, more sewage, and bigger cities and more cars from a general increase in ambient temperature? They say that 2010 was the warmest recent year, but it was only the warmest year at various airports, selected air conditioners, and certain car parks.
Australia’s Climate Commissioners need to provide the public with real world data which establish both that dangerous global warming is occurring, and that human carbon dioxide emissions are the cause. Speculative computer models simply do not cut it.
About the Authors
Dr David Evans consulted full-time for the Australian Greenhouse Office (now the Department of Climate Change) from 1999 to 2005, and part-time 2008 to 2010, modeling Australia’s carbon in plants, debris, mulch, soils, and forestry and agricultural products. Evans is a mathematician and engineer, with six university degrees including a PhD from Stanford University in electrical engineering. The area of human endeavor with the most experience and sophistication in dealing with feedbacks and analyzing complex systems is electrical engineering, and the most crucial and disputed aspects of understanding the climate system are the feedbacks. The evidence supporting the idea that CO2 emissions were the main cause of global warming reversed itself from 1998 to 2006, causing Evans to move from being a warmist to a skeptic. Website: sciencespeak.com. David is married to Joanne Nova.
Professor Bob Carter is an adjunct Research Fellow at James Cook University (Queensland). He is a palaeontologist, stratigrapher, marine geologist and environmental scientist with more than 40 years professional experience, and holds degrees from the University of Otago (New Zealand) and the University of Cambridge (England). Bob has held tenured academic staff positions at the University of Otago (Dunedin) and James Cook University (Townsville), where he was Professor and Head of School of Earth Sciences between 1981 and 1999. Bob has published more than 100 research papers in international science journals on many topics, including sea-level and climate change.
Bob Carter has acted as an expert witness on climate change before the U.S. Senate Committee of Environment & Public Works, the Australian and N.Z. parliamentary Select Committees into emissions trading and in a meeting in parliament house, Stockholm. He was also a primary science witness in the U.K. High Court case of Dimmock v. H.M.’s Secretary of State for Education, the 2007 judgement from which identified nine major scientific errors in Mr Al Gore’s film “An Inconvenient Truth“.