JoNova

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Yasi was a monster — but not an unusual one

Yasi — the super cyclone that isn’t so unusual

Random shot of some coral bits on a beach.

For all the other Christine Milne’s out there, who think coal mining causes cyclones, the empirical evidence inconveniently declares that super-cyclones have been hitting Queensland regularly for the last 5000 years.

As usual, it’s the name-callers who cling to 100 year time-frames and deny the long term evidence, while we “cherry-picking denialists” gravitate towards long term studies based on real observations. (The evidence lies in an obscure industry newsletter called Nature.) The way researcher, Jon Nott, describes it, things have been unusually quiet in our high CO2 world for the last few decades, but cyclones used to be a lot worse, and “worse” is coming back.

Thanks to The Australian for putting together a very timely piece about the historical pattern of cyclone activity.

[Johnathon] Nott is an expert on the incidence of super cyclones. By analysing ridges of broken coral pushed ashore by storm surges, he has catalogued the incidence of super-cyclones over the past 5000 years.

In a paper published in the scientific journal, Nature in 2001 his research shows the frequency of super-cyclones is an order of magnitude higher than previously thought.

Nott’s work puts into perspective current debate about whether climate change is responsible for the extreme weather events in Queensland.

Over recent centuries, massive cyclones have been relatively common. And after an extended period of relatively little activity their return is overdue regardless of rising global temperatures.

The BOM talks about the PDO without saying P.D.O but this is the closest  I’ve seen them come (maybe I’ve missed it) to seriously talking about the major role the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) plays.

According to a paper by BOM Queensland weather forecaster Jeff Callaghan, the frequency of severe land-falling tropical cyclones had declined to low levels in recent decades in line with the El Nino weather patterns. Callaghan’s analysis shows that landfalls occurred almost twice as often in La Nina years as they did in El Nino years and that more than one [super] cyclone only ever hit land during La Nina years.

Callaghan says it would be imprudent to suppose the low number of tropical cyclones crossing the coast in recent decades would continue and planning should reflect the possibility of a rapid return to higher landfall rates.

Callaghan’s research confirms Nott’s analysis that tropical Australia is overdue for a dramatic intensification of cyclonic activity, regardless of whether there is a climate change signal in what is happening now or not.

Indeed Nott warned back in 2001 that a super cyclone was coming, and to their credit, the ABC–Catalyst show let the public know. The last super-cyclone was in the early 1800′s, so if there is a 200 – 300 year frequency, we appear to be right on target. What effect did all those emissions have again?

What the longer term records show, however, is that the frequency of extreme cyclones follow a predictable long-scale pattern.

“What the record shows is we go through extended periods, hundreds of years, of high activity and extended periods of little activity,” Nott says.

“The past 100 to 150 years has been very quiet in Queensland in terms of what happened in the past. The couple of hundred years prior to that were very active.”

According to shorter term decadal scale-that uses a 10-year cycle- Queensland can also expect a big increase in the number of severe cyclones.

The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation indicates the tropical north is due to emerge from a three-decade period of low cyclonic activity and return to the conditions of the 50s, 60s and 70s.

The lack of recent cyclones coincides with El Nino years.

From Roger Pielke’s blog

Andrew Bolt did a good analysis of the blame-man-kind-for-cyclones trick.

References

High frequency of ‘super-cyclones’ along the Great Barrier Reef over the past 5,000 years

Jonathan Nott1 & Matthew Hayne2

Nature 413, 508-512 (4 October 2001) | doi:10.1038/35097055; Received 20 February 2001;

——————————————————–

UPDATE:

As far as this super-cylone research goes below, if the storm surge didn’t rise to the 4m category, then Yasi wasn’t the super cyclone of the Nott studies, and the next big one is still coming.

Great news — so far — no lives lost.

I watched the coverage on the ABC last night. Significantly none of reported wind speeds I saw even came close to the forecast 300km/hr. The largest one was 138 km/hr. Presumably things must have slowed down more than expected. (Otherwise the ABC TV coverage was an endless repetition of Anna Bligh, Premier of QLD, being a newsreader and weathergirl, interspersed with “webcam” shots of the same three square meters of haggard palm fronds in Townsville).

*Max recorded wind gusts so far don’t seem to be over 185km/hr.

The Australian compares Yasi to Katrina. (Remember this story was written yesterday, and printed last night).

–Jo

—————————————————–

Pick of the Comments

Lawrie #10 writes:

During one of our many droughts I watched storms build and felt sure we would get some welcome rain. Then a southerly would hit and the storm would just blow away.

Last night on a talkback show they were talking of Yasi striking the coast at the top of the tide. A fisherman rang and said it wouldn’t happen. He said “every fisherman knows that the cyclones slow down to let the high tide flow out. He went on to say thay Yasi was supposed to cross the coast at a certain time but was now delayed by at least an hour.” I wonder if he is right and if he is, whether any of our experts will take notice of just a fisherman.

Ken Stewart #12 comments:

Maximum wind gust recorded at landfall (at Lucinda) was 185kmh- a far cry from 290kmh. Lucinda is about 70km from Mission Beach where Yasi crossed. And have a look at this:
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/weather/obs.jsp?graph=all_obs&station=32141
See how the wind was bucking around? Looks close to the eye to me.

Waffle #21

I told a mate on Tuesday not to get too excited about this week’s 6 o’clock disaster porn. Having seen alot of cyclone and hurricane time-lapse I knew Yasi would fizzle. Anything tracking greater than 60 degrees along the coast meets too much swell resistance. Those that track between 30 to 45 degrees amplify with a suction effect from coastal swell. You see this happen around Florida regularly.

Yasi was driven by prevailing winds almost perpendicular to the coast. Which, means about an hour or two of high tides, alot of beachside destruction but, not a whole lot of precipitation.

For wind speeds: See also Ken Charles Warren, #34 #35 #36.

Page edited on 15-Oct-2012. The “update” was moved lower in the text.

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102 comments to Yasi was a monster — but not an unusual one

  • #
    John from CA

    Great article Jo!

    Is this statement correct?

    According to a paper by BOM Queensland weather forecaster Jeff Callaghan, the frequency of severe land-falling tropical cyclones had declined to low levels in recent decades in line with the El Nino weather patterns. Callaghan’s analysis shows that landfalls occurred almost twice as often in La Nina years as they did in El Nino years and that more than one cyclone only ever hit land during La Nina years.

    Shouldn’t the statement read:
    … and that more than one cyclone only ever hit land during El Nino years.

    If “landfalls occurred almost twice as often in La Nina years” it doesn’t seem logical to conclude “more than one cyclone only ever hit land during La Nina years“.

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  • #

    [...] stories of Yasi being the result of man made global warming. Australians blogger JoNova, posted in http://joannenova.com.au/2011/02/yasi-is-a-monster-but-not-an-unusual-one/, on the expert work of Jon Nott, who has compiled a record of cyclone strikes on Australia going [...]

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  • #
    crist

    According to the BBC -

    “Fierce winds and driving rains brought by the most powerful storm ever to hit Queensland are lashing northern coastal areas of the Australian state.”

    Most powerful? Sure about that? Later we are informed –

    “Yasi was classed as a category five cyclone as it crossed the coast – the highest grade in the scale used to measure such storms. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology later downgraded the storm to category four and then to category three, but still classified it as dangerous.”

    Then

    “Many fear that Yasi could be worse than Cyclone Tracy, which hit Darwin on Christmas Eve in 1974 and killed 71 people. That was a category four storm.”

    So wait a minute. First of all we’re told Yasi is the most powerful storm ever to hit Queensland, then we’re told it was downgraded from category 5, to 4 then 3, but it could still be worse than a category 4 cyclone that occurred only 37 years ago.

    Don’t get me wrong, I’m sure it’s going to be very unpleasant for everyone affected, but this scaremongering is ludicrous even for the BBC.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12342031

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  • #
    Jaymez

    John from CA: my guess is that it is meant to read that “more than one [category 5 or super] cyclone only ever hit land during La Nina years.”

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  • #
    Another Ian

    Jo,

    Minor typo in the above item

    “Catalyst show tlet he public know”

    [got that one] Ed

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    PJB

    Having intently watched the Atlantic basin for hurricane activity over the past decade, I have concluded that the one thing that stops or reduces cyclogenesis is wind shear.

    Screaming trades or local wind patterns tear the tops from the rising thunderstorms that fuel the strength and velocity of these weather phenomena. As a means of distributing excess heat they are good, but not as good, perhaps (I see a research paper coming… ;) ) as high velocity winds going from one region to another.

    Warm water temperatures notwithstanding, shear can take them all out or its absence can allow the formation of monsters like Yasi. In a global warming world, I gather that the models show less heat difference between the poles and the equator (ie less shear so more hurricanes) but the models have been wrong before. The PDO and the other oceanic cycles certainly seem to have the upper hand on historical [CO2] levels no matter how you present it.

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  • #
    John from CA

    Jaymez:
    February 3rd, 2011 at 5:47 am

    John from CA: my guess is that it is meant to read that “more than one [category 5 or super] cyclone only ever hit land during La Nina years.”

    Thanks Jaymez, that makes sense.

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  • #
    Neville

    Good article this morning from the Bolter, please all the delusional fools out there read Pielke jnr info at the end that helps put the history of these storms into some sort of reality.
    John and the other bedwetters won’t like these facts but hey everyone has to grow up one day.

    Most importantly so far there has been no loss of life.

    http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/yasi_now_just_a_category_three_no_dead_reported_yet/

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  • #
    val majkus

    here’s the abstract of the paper by Prof Nott to which the Oz article refers
    http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v413/n6855/abs/413508a0.html
    Understanding long-term variability in the occurrence of tropical cyclones that are of extreme intensity is important for determining their role in ecological disturbances1, 2, 3, 4, 5, for predicting present and future community vulnerability and economic loss6 and for assessing whether changes in the variability of such cyclones are induced by climate change7. Our ability to accurately make these assessments has been limited by the short (less than 100 years) instrumented record of cyclone intensity. Here we determine the intensity of prehistoric tropical cyclones over the past 5,000 years from ridges of detrital coral and shell deposited above highest tide and terraces that have been eroded into coarse-grained alluvial fan deposits. These features occur along 1,500 km of the Great Barrier Reef and also the Gulf of Carpentaria, Australia. We infer that the deposits were formed by storms with recurrence intervals of two to three centuries8, 9, 10, 11, and we show that the cyclones responsible must have been of extreme intensity (central pressures less than 920 hPa). Our estimate of the frequency of such ‘super-cyclones’ is an order of magnitude higher than that previously estimated (which was once every several millennia12, 13, 14), and is sufficiently high to suggest that the character of rainforests and coral reef communities were probably shaped by these events.

    you have to log in to see the paper in total

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  • #
    Lawrie

    PJB @ 5,

    During one of our many droughts I watched storms build and felt sure we would get some welcome rain. Then a southerly would hit and the storm would just blow away.

    Last night on a talkback show they were talking of Yasi striking the coast at the top of the tide. A fisherman rang and said it wouldn’t happen. He said “every fisherman knows that the cyclones slow down to let the high tide flow out. He went on to say thay Yasi was supposed to cross the coast at a certain time but was now delayed by at least an hour.” I wonder if he is right and if he is, whether any of our experts will take notice of just a fisherman.

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  • #
    pat

    having lived thru a cat 5 hurricane, Gilbert, in 1988 in the Caribbean, where the majority of the population, including yours truly, lived in simple shacks with zinc roofs, the hysteria over Yasi has been over-the-top, to say the least. experiencing Gilbert was awe-inspiring and everyone was impressed by its power. songs were written to celebrate its fury and people picked up the pieces and got on with their lives. in north qld, where cyclones are no strangers, u would have thought the world was about to end. nature is being viewed as an “enemy”.
    however:

    3 Feb: ABC: First light reveals cyclone destruction
    Premier Anna Bligh says there have been no reports so far of deaths or serious injuries, but cautioned it was too early to draw any conclusions.
    “While the early news is certainly not anything like I expected to hear this morning from a category five cyclone, I do stress in many places we’ve yet to see any assessment,” she said this morning.
    “But I do stress it’s far too early to start talking about dodging bullets.”…
    Councillor Alan Blake, the deputy chair of the local disaster management group, says it appears Cairns has survived with very little damage.
    “I’m very surprised this morning after the gale force winds that came through last night, Cairns has survived, and survived very, very well,” he said.
    “Going down our main highway into the city, [there are just] a few branches and trees across the highway.”
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/02/03/3128533.htm

    when your eyes are on more revenue, i guess the hysteria has a purpose:

    1 Feb: SMH: Phillip Coorey: Gillard warms to permanent disaster fund
    ”We’re happy to have a conversation about the longer term,” she said…
    Independents in both houses have called for a more permanent disaster fund rather than a one-off levy.
    Senator Nick Xenophon, of South Australia, who was briefed yesterday by government officials, said the levy was a Band-Aid solution.
    He called for a broad insurance scheme similar to those implemented after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, and Cyclone Tracy in 1974.
    The lower house MPs Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott want a natural disaster fund…
    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/gillard-warms-to-permanent-disaster-fund-20110131-1ab4z.html

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  • #
    Ken Stewart

    Lawrie, yes we saw Yasi slow down, veer south for about an hour, then head west again.
    I truly think BOM exaggerated the strength of Yasi. They copped some unjustified criticism for failing to alert people to the Toowoomba/ Lockyer floods, and over reacted and over compensated in their warnings for Yasi, to be on the safe side. Fortunately it worked, people did get prepared and evacuate etc and no lives were lost. However, at some cost to the truth.
    After the event they had to report the actual conditions, before hand they could predict the worst case scenario. Maximum wind gust recorded at landfall (at Lucinda) was 185kmh- a far cry from 290kmh. Lucinda is about 70km from Mission Beach where Yasi crossed. And have a look at this:
    http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/weather/obs.jsp?graph=all_obs&station=32141
    See how the wind was bucking around? Looks close to the eye to me.

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  • #

    [...] of relatively little activity their return is overdue regardless of rising global temperatures. (source) Share [...]

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  • #
    El Sledgo

    Some idiot commenters around the blogs have been cheering that coal shipments and the port were affected and have been parroting the warmist’s mantra saying things like “serves them right”. I’m not surprised that even a conservative blog like the Huffington Post’s coverage of Yasi has its fair share of idiots pushing that same party line, complete with a massive dose of “d-bombs”.

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  • #
    David C

    Some of the utterances from the warmists are amazing. They are consistently shown up as delusional, yet they continue to make pronouncements. It’s like a Punch and Judy show, where they play the part of Punch, and Judy plays Mother Gaia, whacking them with the Clue Club each time!

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  • #
    Mark D.

    The typo referenced in # 1 #3 #6 above might like to know that the typo is also in the quoted Australian piece as:

    According to a paper by BOM Queensland weather forecaster Jeff Callaghan, the frequency of severe land-falling tropical cyclones had declined to low levels in recent decades in line with the El Nino weather patterns. Callaghan’s analysis shows that landfalls occurred almost twice as often in La Nina years as they did in El Nino years and that more than one cyclone only ever hit land during La Nina years.

    So blame the Australian not Jo.

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  • #
    Richard S Courtney

    Ms Nova:

    Whether or not Yasi is unusual (it is not), I offer my sincere hopes that all in the land of OZ will be OK.

    Richard

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  • #
    Mark

    I hear that a new bub entered the world during the disaster. God, I hope it’s not christened Yasi!

    Some wag has already announced that said bub was doing well apart from some “wind” problems.

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  • #
    Dave N

    Ken Stewart @ 12:

    From yesterday afternoon I was keeping an eye on Lucinda, as it seemed the closest BOM site with continuous data to where Yasi would make landfall. After visiting Warwick Hughes’ site, I also monitored Holmes Reef and more importantly Flinders Reef, the latter of which had maximum gusts of 167km/h which was at 2pm EST, around 10 hours before landfall. This location is in the Coral Sea and was close to the centre of Yasi. Lucinda was hit worse with gusts over 180km/h.

    Given the above, the estimation of 300km/h wind speeds seems like a total over-exaggeration, and I fail to see why they continued to push that line even after 2pm.

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  • #

    I told a mate on Tuesday not to get too excited about this week’s 6 o’clock disaster porn. Having seen alot of cyclone and hurricane time-lapse I knew Yasi would fizzle. Anything tracking greater than 60 degrees along the coast meets too much swell resistance. Those that track between 30 to 45 degrees amplify with a suction effect from coastal swell. You see this happen around Florida regularly.

    Yasi was driven by prevailing winds almost perpendicular to the coast. Which, means about an hour or two of high tides, alot of beachside destruction but, not a whole lot of precipitation.

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  • #
    val majkus

    Ken @ 12; nice to see you – was wondering about your part of the world yesterday,
    I think Warwick Hughes would agree with you about the wind speed reporting; have a look at his comments
    http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=809#comments
    … (quoting in part his comment posted at 4.16 am
    Looking at the latest current obs (3.30am Qld) at the BoM clickable map.
    Townsville windspeed never reached 100km/h and at 3.30 are 89 – gusts reached 135 (1.23-1.30am) and have decr to 119 @ 3.30.
    Going north, Lucinda has been hit heavier – as at 3.30am winds 113 gusts 145 down from peak winds 132 gusts 170 @ ~12.30am.
    Cairns by 3.30am neither wind speed (46) or gusts (72) reached 100.
    Arlington Reef just offshore Cairns has seen stronger winds. Gusts topped 100 between 11pm and 3am and have decr slightly to 89 @ 3.30am.
    Obviously we do not yet have winds from the strongest core, can only hope it is v restricted
    ….
    and 7.27 am
    The strongest wind gust I have seen in DATA is the 180 at Lucinda. Way short of this 295 bandied around – which I assume was always from modeling.

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  • #
    Graham

    Australian Climate Madness reports another excruciating low point in journalism courtesy of ABC’s Deborah Cameron and alarmist megaphone, Ian Lowe.

    He told Deborah there is a clear relationship between increased (man-made) Greenhouse emissions and changes in the climate – and the evidence is there to suggest that weather patterns are intensifying.

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  • #
    Bulldust

    Richard S Courtney:

    She’ll be right mate! So far no casualties. Property damage will take a few days to assess. No doubt Joooolya can now go for a Big Blow Levy.

    What I found somewhat nauseating (and I generally quite like the chap) was Karl Stefanovic struggling to withhold his disappointment at not having much death and destruction to report this morning. He seemed to almost salivate when he crossed to a “friend” who was quite keen to describe last night with plenty of alarming adjectives. Whenever he crossed to the folks living in the worst hit townships they downplayed the whole event… yeah it was a stiff breeze, but we got through it alright etc…

    It made me reflect once again on how tabloidal and alarmist the media has become… sound familiar?

    Best picture of the event? A sign in one of the towns before the cyclone landed reading:

    Kiss my Yasi!

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  • #
    Bulldust

    Meanwhile the UAH satellite temperature has dropped into the negatives:

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/02/02/uah-global-temperature-anomaly-goes-negative/

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  • #
    Hasbeen

    Well they have blown it. The BOM, Anna & the media hyped Yasi to the heavens, & then, as many above have shown, apart from a few unlucky ones at the point of landfall, the thing was damn near a fizzer. What’s more, Anna is still on TV doing even more of it. I guess the desire to get re-elected is strong.

    What won’t be strong is the response to the next few cyclone warnings, when the next one could be much more deadly.

    It really is a pity that the media can’t resist overuse of “correspondents” expensively flown into prospective disaster areas. I suppose the bean counters expect so many column inches, or on air time minutes, per dollar cost of fares & accommodation.

    Oh, & Anna, loose the body guard love. It’s not a good look. Even though I am having hearing difficulties, I find this ostentation objectionable at your press conferences.

    Surprisingly perhaps, I can read. Try a line of text if you want to help us understand what you are saying, rather than an intrusive signer.

    Note to TV producers. Tell your reporters to keep their microphones out of the wind. The trick of trying to add drama to the report by wind noise in the mike is annoying, not cleaver.

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  • #
    Dave N

    Just found this, which was released at 5pm on Tuesday:

    http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/media_releases/qld/20110201.shtml

    Classified as cat 3. To the BOM’s credit, their prediction of the strongest gusts and approximate (inferred) location of landfall were pretty close.

    Apparently the media never got “wind” of it. I guess that would have dampened down their scare story.

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  • #
    janama

    val majkus: @ 22

    180km at Lucinda in the eye of the cyclone – the BoM has blown it completely this time.

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  • #
    PJB

    @ Lawrie #10

    That darn over-used butterfly wing flapping again, no doubt!

    Chaos theory notwithstanding, there are inshore and offshore winds that vary with the hour of the day. Tides come and go depending on the moon phases. My experience is that there are so many “X” factors that it boggles the mind, imagination and beggars our “scientific” knowledge as far as what makes these and other weather phenomena “tick”.
    I had never previously heard of the high-tide effect but I will certainly look into it.
    As an aside, Katrina went from a Cat 5 to a Cat 3 in its last hours before landfall. Shelf water temps and a host of other factors all come into play.
    We know only what we allow ourselves to experience.

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  • #
    Percival Snodgrass

    WHAT WILL BE GILLARDS NEXT TAX?

    Given the intensity of cyclone YASI in North Queensland. What is the bet that if significant damage is incurred that RED GILLARD will try and introduce a CYCLONE TAX??????

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  • #
    Percival Snodgrass

    Temperatures stay below zero degrees for 40 consecutive days in North Korea……..

    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/environment/weather/temperatures-stay-below-zero-degrees-for-40-consecutive-days-in-north-korea-20110202-1aco2.html

    Bye Bye global warming!!!!!!!!!!

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  • #
    charlesd

    The ABC is still reporting the 290 kph speed prominently in its news summaries. But there is still no indication that such a speed has actually been measured anywhere.

    The preference for theoretical or modelled data over real-world measurement seems to be a characteristic of one side of the climate debates.

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  • #
    Ken Stewart

    Dave N @ 27:
    Yes but they upgraded Yasi to Cat 5 early Wednesday morning. Worst case scenario- predictions of what windspeed COULD be, what storm surge COULD be, what rainfall COULD be, if the cyclone does indeed reach Cat 5. Sounds like the IPCC. Category of TCs is not based on observation but is a tool for warning the public of possible conditions. And of course the media (and Anna) seized the worst case scenario as fact. Like the (girl) who cried wolf, will FNQ citizens take future warnings seriously as a result of this?

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  • #
    Warren

    Windspeeds of up to 140-185km/hr 70 to 100km from the eye wall at stations that measured minimum pressures above 970hPa cannot be taken as an indicator that speeds did not reach the high 200s at the eye wall. Yasi destroyed the Willis Island equipment at least 25km from the approaching edge of the eyewall with the wind graph going exponential,which is typical of the increase seen in cross-sections of cyclones. This was the only station that was traversed by the eye. Yasi came ashore with consistent hourly estimates of 930hPa core pressure,with an eye that stayed well defined. I’ll take the measurements,opinions and models of the experts over others,and it’s got bugger-all to do with climate debates.

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  • #
    brc

    crist @ 3

    All cyclones lose intensity as they cross the coastline. Any storm would decrease from 5,3,2 and then onto a tropical low.

    There are definitely some questions to be asked with regards to maximum wind speed projections vs actual measurements, but because the storm crossed the coasline in a very sparsely populated area, I doubt there is any accurate weather recording equipment to give a true indication of windspeed at the eye. Not sure if an accurate measurement could/was made with Doppler.

    It does seem that the damage is not consistent with a category 5 storm, but not all the pictures are out yet. What is shown for Tully, Tully Heads, Mission Beach and Cardwell will tell the true tale. The rainfall also seems pretty dismal – any good tropical storm will give that much rainfall.

    I think if it weren’t for the previous floods the media attention wouldn’t have been quite so severe. But they were still all in disaster reporting mode, and quite keen to keep the disaster ratings running.

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  • #
    Warren

    The rainfall seems pretty dismal

    I suppose that’s why places recorded approaching 400mm in less than a day? I suppose that’s why the Herbert is hitting 12m and rising at Gairloch? For a fast moving storm that’s pretty impressive. Wait until you hear what they recorded at high altitude on Bellenden Ker.

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  • #
    Olaf Koenders

    I wonder how many more natural disasters Anna Bligh and Julia Gillard can possibly attract to QLD to get their carbon trading agenda off the ground..? /sarc

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  • #
    Hasbeen

    Come on Warren, did you watch the radar as the thing crosses Dunk Island, & then the coast.

    The rainfall was pretty mild compared to a Brisbane afternoon thunderstorm.

    There was only one patch of really heavy rain in that hour, & that was on Cape Upstart, the middle of nowhere.

    Why do you have a problem with the facts, as they occurred?

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  • #
    pattoh

    OK @ 39

    How about a fashion disaster……….not being able to make pants suits without either farting ruminants or filthy liquid hydrocarbons?

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  • #
    Warren

    My problem,hasbeen,is that I looked at the data before I shot my mouth off. There were rainrates of 50mm/hr in this event,too.. 3 hour rates of up to 100mm/hr behind Townsville. 3 hour rates of up to 150mm in the Tully and Johnstone catchments. 24 hour totals of 200 to 350mm are common,with one as high as 464mm in the Herbert.

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  • #
    rukidding

    Queensland.Flooded one day blown away the next.

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  • #
    janama

    Warren – here are some facts you didn’t look at.

    Cardwell lost 200 homes, Mission Beach and Tully lost 20 homes each. Therefore it is clear that the centre of this “largest storm on record” went through Cardwell. Point Lucinda is 40km south of cardwell in an area where the winds are the greatest (i.e to the south of the centre) Point Lucinda recorded wind GUSTS up to 180km/hr.

    This was not a Cat5 cyclone – A Cat5 with 290 winds would have totally destroyed Mission Beach, Tully and Cardwell.

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    Warren

    I’ll put it this way,if there wasn’t a functioning wind recording station within 25km of the eyewall,and 50km of the centre of the eye,then dismissal of the wind estimates as high is not credible.

    The damage seen in the worst affected towns squares quite well with Saffir-Simpson Cat 4 [BOM cat 5],central pressures 920-945 hPa.and wind speeds 210 to 250km/hr. Lots of unroofing, some masonry wall damage and collapse,doors and windows damaged movement and destruction of lighter structures,sheds and caravans,whole trees uprooted and stripping of foliage.

    In the absence of functioning equipment,speeds will be quite accurately estimated from damage comparison with precedent events with hard data.,and from well tested modelling.

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    Ian Mott

    I seem to recall that the 295km/hr figure was recorded during a 3 second interval before the Willis Island weather station crashed. Three seconds does not constitute most people’s idea of a gust of wind and it hardly constitutes a record at all. The previous data indicated gusts to only 195km/hr, not 295km.

    We must keep in mind that all this data is compiled and recorded by the faithful servants of the Minister for Climate Change, with the emphasis on the “for”. A crashed weather station also happens to supply exactly the kind of ambiguity in which fraud and deception can thrive.

    Note that from the moment that 295km/hr number was mentioned there were no further attempts to obtain a more accurate range of wind speeds. The media, the bureaucrats and the elected shonkerati all jumped on it with “cometh the hour, cometh the man” ringing in every ear.

    They needed a category 5 and they went right out and manufactured one.

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    janama

    The BoM has taken Lucinda Point off line and replaced it’s reference with Townsville Airport. They said it was faulty.

    I still happen to have the link

    http://www.weatherzone.com.au/station.jsp?lt=site&lc=32141&list=ob

    as you can see wind measuring system worked fine, the temp unit went a bit haywire at the peak of the storm but soon settled down.

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    brc

    I’m no cyclone expert, but these were all smaller than predicted:
    - measured wind speeds
    - storm surge height
    - rainfall totals
    - flooding
    - damage
    - category once landfall was made (they were at one point talking about cat2 or cat3 to mt isa, which I had saved the image)

    It’s not my intention to say the BOM was fear mongering or making incorrect judgements – it must be difficult to make accurate measurements in these pretty isolated areas when everyone is watching over your shoulder – but none of the data, either anecdotal or measured, seems to be matching the predictions. Barring the emergence of better data, I can only come to the conclusion that the predictions were incorrect and largely overdone, and that a re-rating of the storm should happen now that it has passed. I can’t see it going down as a Cat5 in the history books once all the data is in. Nasa already has it as a Cat4 (don’t know if they use the same scale).http://www1.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurricanes/archives/2011/h2011_Yasi.html

    Perhaps some local amateur with decent equipment got a good windspeed and/or barometric pressure measurement around the eye wall, and that might throw some light on the subject.

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    You can catch a time-lapse here: http://www.theweatherchaser.com/videos/201101-tropical-cyclone-yasi

    What’s fascinating is the way the preceding storm forms and then yanks Yasi down towards it. Then, when the storm breaks, the dissipated energy gets hoovered up by Yasi making it colossal.

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    janama

    Nine news is constantly showing footage of Mission Beach beach front. It shows row upon row of damaged trees with the odd one toppled. Most still have branches with leaves on them – if they were hit by 290km winds straight off the ocean I doubt any would still be standing.

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    Warren

    Ian,all the international contributing agencies’ data support Yasi as Cat 5 BOM scale/Cat 4 Saffir-Simpson. Of course the media obliged with spreading the message about the upper end of possibilities;after all,it was a public safety matter. It was a very large ,powerful cyclone,with stations 700km apart [Bougainville Reef and Hamilton Island] recording winds at 80+km/hr with gusts over 100km/hr simultaneously.

    I don’t think 295km/hr was ever recorded by surface apparatus,but once again,the only station to reach 185km/hr gusts was destroyed the next minute as the eye approached over the next 30-40mins. The University of Wisconsin CIMSS folks put Yasi at 140knots average for its last 19 hours over the sea from their modelling. The USAF put it at 925hPa/128knots at about 6 hours before landfall.

    The SATCON three model consensus put it at 912hPa and 131 knots.

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    Warren

    brc,it will go down as Cat 5 in the books because all the satellite data agree. NASA use Saffir-Simpson,which makes it a 4 to our 5. I heard predictions of 200-400mm rainfall possible from BOM in the days before landfall…and that’s what we got. There were no functioning surface recorders within cooee of the intense circulation. The model projections for trajectory did extremely well days out,with only the last hours as the system interacted with the mountains seeing a slight drift south. Damage was less than feared because it did not test the outer extremes of its modelled track by directly hitting Cairns or Townsville,and Larry had cleaned out a lot of the more vulnerable structures from Innisfail and Tully areas back in 2006. The storm surge on top of low pressure bulge at Cardwell was about 3 metres,and at Clump Point at Mission Beach,about 2m. Not as high as possible…thankfully.

    Yasi is still Aussie Cat 2 500km inland ,that’s pretty impressive

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    Bulldust

    I know this will come as a shock to many, BUT Joolya is not going to raise another tax due to Yasi:

    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/8771398/budget-cuts-will-pay-for-yasi/

    Shame really… Yasi Levy kinda rolls off the tongue.

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    Ian Mott

    Warren @ 52. 128knots is 245km/hr which is $hitload less than 295km/hr. I think what we are seeing is a case of boored lifeguard syndrome, where a lifeguard spends ages staring at the beach with no action. And when someone actually starts looking like they may get into trouble they don’t just stroll down and help them out but, rather, sit back and wait until the situation is serious and they get to do a dramatic rescue and get their name in the local paper. Pity about the punter who’s life was seriously endangered.

    Everyone from Gillard and Bligh, right down through the chain of command NEEDED the biggest, baddest MOFO on record and that is exactly what they produced. Lets face it, these clowns were on political death row until the floods came. So does anyone seriously believe they wouldn’t flogg the crap out of a winning formula?

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    John Brookes

    I reckon you guys have got a mole in The Australian. The line above their main headline read, “Emergency shelters overflow as worst cyclone in 93 years bears down”. Now many people would read this and think nothing of it. However regular exposure to AGW skeptics makes one sensitive to nuance. One of the key messages of skeptics is, “Its been hotter before”. That proves that any hot day/month/year/decade now is not unusual in the great scheme of things. The Australian realises that you can’t just stick to temperature, you need to encompass all weather events. So its not good enough to say that Yasi was a bloody big cyclone – no, you need to get the office boy to do some research and then qualify it “worst cyclone in 93 years”.

    So what with giving his lordship some column space, and toeing the party line when covering cyclones, you guys should write to the editor and say thanks.

    The media in general has overhyped Yasi, but in doing so they have probably saved lives. When you combine media hype with the recent floods (and memories of Larry), people have prepared much better than they would otherwise have.

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    Nice!
    Sometimes its nice when things dont work out as expected :-)
    K.R. Frank

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    Richard S Courtney

    John Brookes:

    Your post at #56 is a disgrace.
    The cyclone has caused much damage for many people and all you can do is use spin an an attempt to make a political point.

    Yasi was severe. It was more severe than any other similar event in 93 years, and pointing that out shows just how bad it was.

    But you and your ilk want to claim every weather event as being “unprecedented” and “worse than before” because of AGW. There is no weather event that is known to be worsened by AGW, and no weather event observed recently is unprecedented.

    You should have waited until the disaster is over before making your political point.
    But that point is, itself, a spectacular ‘own goal’. The Australian printed the truth and not the false propoganda you wanted it to print: if that is “success” for climate realists then it should be applauded.

    Richard

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    John Brookes

    Sorry if it seemed tasteless, Richard, but I’ve become a little sensitised to skeptic tactics;-)

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    Percival Snodgrass

    PRICELESS – From a moronic greenie !!!!!!!!!

    Prof. Ian Lowe has let the cat out of the bag.

    He makes a telling statement in arguing for renewable energy instead of nuclear energy in “Why vs Why: Nuclear Power’, Pantera Press, Sydney, 2010.

    He claims that the 2030 energy demand can be met by wind (50%), solar (40%), hydro, tidal, and geothermal (10%).

    He then states:
    “Altogether, the area needed for energy supply would be about 1.3 % of the Earth’s land area.”

    Doesn’t sound much, does it? Trouble is, this amount to almost 2 million square kilometres!

    To put this in perspective, this amounts to covering every square inch of QUEENSLAND and VICTORIA with renewable energy collectors.
    This is bigger than most nation states.

    And this would be based on putting the best case forward for renewables, so the real amount would be much larger!

    A COCKROACH WOULD POSSESS MORE INTELLIGENCE!

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    Or it could be that you are just a jerk, John.

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    John Brookes

    I don’t think so Mike.

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    brc

    John @56
    “I reckon you guys have got a mole in The Australian”

    Or, you know, they could just be doing some research before spouting off about ‘OMG WORST CYCLONE EVER’. If Sunrise is your journalistic standard I can understand how someone actually doing some research before running off at the mouth might come as a shock.

    The fact is, it wasn’t the worst cyclone to ever hit QLD. I’m sure you have no problem with reporters doing research and reporting facts? You show all the classic signs of projection, where you’re used to seeing exaggerations and PR spun as news, and assume the ‘other side’ does the same thing.

    There’s a reason that ‘it’s been hotter before’ is a key message. That’s because it is true. Every single weather pattern currently being experience has been before. There is nothing unprecedented about the current climate. Anyone who uses ‘unprecedented’ is either poorly researched or has an ideaology to push.

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    Louis Hissink

    The unusual thing about this cyclone is that it still retains its cyclonic nature after landfall – interesting.

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    David

    Glad to hear that everyone in the area is ok…
    So – it wasn’t ‘unprecedented’; ‘biggest in history’; etc etc – after all..?
    However – I’d be interested to know how the $20m wind farm at Windy Hill fared – any nice piccies of bladeless turbines, by any chance..??

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    BobC

    Do you ever listen to yourself, John?

    At post @ 56, you make the following point:

    Skeptics must have “a mole in the Australian”, because it reported (correctly) that Yasi was the “worst cyclone in 93 years”. You noticed this because:

    … regular exposure to AGW skeptics makes one sensitive to nuance. One of the key messages of skeptics is, “Its been hotter before”. That proves that any hot day/month/year/decade now is not unusual in the great scheme of things.

    Apparently a dedicated spin-meister like yourself would have concealed the information about the past, the better to make false claims about the present being “unprecedented” and therefore due to human carbon emissions.

    Take a look at yourself in the mirror, John. It takes a pretty warped set of values to define telling the truth as a devious “trick”, and lying as the expected norm.

    It is interesting, however, that even you acknowledge that the AGW claims are based on lies and deception and the skeptics’ “key messages” are to disseminate all the facts truthfully.

    I’d have to agree with that.

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    Mark D.

    John Brookes @ 56 Can’t resist a final toss-in of rationalization with:

    The media in general has overhyped Yasi, but in doing so they have probably saved lives. When you combine media hype with the recent floods (and memories of Larry), people have prepared much better than they would otherwise have.

    Of course that is justification of the Precautionary Principle right John?

    and John, over-hyping (spin) is how close to lying in your personal lexicon of morals?

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    Baa Humbug

    Awww John John John, calling the kettle black are you mate?

    Lets see, speaking of moles, how about Andy Revkin at the NY Times?

    What about that obnoxious mole George ‘moonbat’ Monbiot at the Guardian?

    What about every single (YES JOHN EVERY SINGLE) environment reporter in any MSM you care to name?

    here a mole there a mole, everywhere a mole mole John, open your eyes mate.

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    John from CA

    John Brookes,
    I’m guessing you followed the link I left on WUWT for you. Thanks for taking the time to read Jo’s post.

    You’ll also benefit from some posts on Dr. Curry’s site; Climate Etc.

    This Curry post puts things in perspective. The IPCC AR4 report does not forecast effects from AGW until about 2060. All of the nonsense delivered by various agencies and news sources about AGW effects occurring now should therefore be dismissed as Fiction. You’ll also discover from additional research that Climate Science doesn’t have a grasp of the the Climate System. Key aspects of the system are unknown including the Carbon Cycle, Water Cycle, Atmospheric models that explain oscillations, etc. In the face of it, their predictions are largely useless.

    And the calculations show that the warming proceeds until about 2060 in a manner that is independent of the emissions scenario.

    http://judithcurry.com/2010/10/31/decision-making-under-climate-uncertainty-part-i/

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    John from CA

    John Brookes,
    The person I left this link for on WUWT was Ross Brisbane.

    Sorry for the confusion.

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    grayman

    Glad to hear all alive and well, and hope it stays that way. As to the MSM over hyping the story, when i lived in North Carolina in 80s and 90s hurricanes were the norm for us with landfalls some yrs. 2 or3 times and some 1 ot none. The MSM was just starting to hype it up after HUGO came thru in 89 then a few weak ones came thru and the people stopped listening and stayed at thier homes. Then the strong ones came and people started to die again. I laughed at the over doing it by the MSM but decided to listen and get the hell out of harms way for safety sake, every thing else is material things that can be replaced or repaired the other side of the coin is my life and i chose life. I am glad so many others did to. The worst part though is the double wammy of the floods and now the hurricane. May you enjoy lots of sunshine for now to help dry out. John brookes sometimes you should just shut up so as to look the fool, but alas you speak and show that you are the fool!

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    Percival Snodgrass

    “John Brookes”……..
    THINK, NO REALLY THINK!
    I know it will be a new expereince for you, but you may come to enjoy it one day!

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    Percival Snodgrass

    More MORONIC “green” DRIVEL……

    World’s dams are ‘contributing to global warming’:-

    http://www.news.com.au/worlds-dams-are-contributing-to-global-warming/story-e6frfkp9-1111114339063

    Seriously, what planet do these “people” come from?

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    pattoh

    From Cookster’s link to Garnaut in the Aus above:-

    “The paper squarely takes on the climate change sceptics, arguing that there was no peer-reviewed scientific research in the past five years that gave strength to their views.

    The climate science equalled or exceeded worst-case scenarios for warming and sea-level rises in the 2007 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.”

    No peer reviewed scientific research in the past five years?????

    Equalled or exceeded worst case scenarios????

    Now that he is not busy looking after the gold mine on Lihir it would appear he is putting all that under utilised time, energy & passion into missing the argument & genuflecting his way to a seat at the high table of the ordained.

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    Percival Snodgrass

    850 Peer-Reviewed Papers Supporting Skepticism of “Man-Made” Global Warming……..

    http://www.populartechnology.net/2009/10/peer-reviewed-papers-supporting.html

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    Bob Malloy

    Talking of Garnaut:

    Listened to ABC local radio between the hours of 12 midnight, and 5am. Garnaut featured every hour on the hour with several selective sound bites, all hammering the same B.S,recent weather events all reinforce CAGW, and hopefully pollies of all Persuasions will move quickly to put a price on CARBON.

    No counter point aired,”as we would all expect from aunty”, unlike after the floods where they at least interviewed Stewart Franks, I bet this time they didn’t even bother, why waste time doing an interview if you have no intention of airing it. Buisness as usual at OUR INDEPENDANT & UNBIASED ABC.

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    Ross

    Garnaut is quoted in NZ media today saying Yasi is the result of AGW. They are clearly trying to con the Aussie public into believing a carbon price is needed in Australia.
    I’m surprised people are not highlighting the fact that the last time their were huge floods in Queensland ( 1974) there were a few significant cyclones in Northern Australia –Tracy ,in particular and as I understand it this was also when there was a “meeting of the minds” of the PDO and La Nina. Correct me if I am wrong

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    Bob Malloy

    Amusing little piece at Quadrant Online;

    PIGS Inquiry

    by Pat Beale

    February 3, 2011

    Global speeding

    I feel an obligation to alert readers to a looming crisis. Shortly WikiLeaks will reveal a secret that has been kept from the public by world governments for fear of the consequential panic. Research by a group of eminent scientists has identified that time is accelerating. For some time there has been growing suspicion that the years are passing more quickly. This has been particularly noted by numbers of senior scientists who, in their retirement, have time to devote to its study. Of great concern however is the realization that this speeding is not uniform. It has been observed that third-world nations are moving less quickly and that some may be going backwards. There is a growing fear that the world could be ripped apart.

    Loosly ties in with the B.S. that is climate change.

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    pat

    Bob Molloy -

    monday nite on 2UE kennedy and clark show, heard around australia, a caller phones in and says u should be talking about reducing the population, that’s the biggest problem. caller said we can’t let it get to 9bn, we need to reduce it to 1bn asap. clark responds, we agree completely about population, then asks rhetorically, but how do u suggest we go about it.

    conversation then changed tack, but how can our broadcasters be allowing this type of anti-life talk to air?

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    Bob Malloy

    pat:
    February 4th, 2011 at 7:36 am

    how can our broadcasters be allowing this type of anti-life talk to air?

    because they all have the heads firmly stuck up their respective !!!!’s

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    Llew Jones

    Re Garnaut it seems to me that the line of attack should be the evidence of weather history. The science far from being settled is being disputed at almost every level; there is even enough input from the thermodynamicists to cast doubts on the whole idea of the GH effect.

    I notice Spencer’s approach is to postulate that there is no need for the sun or increasing CO2 concentrations etc (“external” factors) to explain weather which is adequately explained by “internal” natural climate variability. That approach does not require involved meteorological science but a history of weather that includes pre-Industrial Revolution levels of atmospheric CO2. That seems to me to be about the only approach that leaves the alarmists and their fellow travelers in the MSM without an argument.

    Incidentally Spencer says only those with a mental illness can blame AGW for severe snow storms and freezing weather.

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    Percival Snodgrass

    “pat” (82) My suggestion to these two radio 2ue global warming FANATICS “kennedy and clark” would have been for them to stick plastic bags over their heads and demonstrate the strength of their convictions!

    These two “individuals” definitely do not belong on radio 2UE.

    They should be sacked from radio 2ue and join the LEFTIST LOVIN at their ABC (Australians Being Censored)………

    I suggest they people send them as well as the station manager at radio 2ue and tell them some facts of like!!!!!!!!

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    I just posted some of this on Warwick Hughes:

    If we were a first world country we’d have cyclone hunter aircraft flying over the storm dropping dropsondes with GPS units and we’d get real wind speeds at any points and altitudes we liked. A Super Hornet with some tanker support would be able to do this mission without any significant risk. The fighter pilots might even like to do some real stuff that doesn’t involve training for or actually killing people. Fun mission for DSTO/ARDU to design, build and qualify the dropping of the devices. Sounds like a good use for a defence force to me. I even know of a small instrument company that may be able to help.:-)

    Might end some of the speculation but where’s the fun in that?

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    pat

    how many lies does malcolm employ here:

    4 Feb: The Punch: Mal Farr: Wild weather could help blow in the new carbon tax
    The Gillard Government is determined to get a victory on carbon emission penalties within 12 months, and a key factor in this political process could be the latest weather reports.
    The general public was more receptive to the arguments for global warming the last time the weather was big news, when Australia was dealing with record drought and lethal bush fires.
    They might be willing to listen again following the counter events of massive flood and wild winds across much of the continent.
    There is no broadly accepted direct link between climate change and Australia’s natural disasters of the past month, but they fit the theory of global warming causing “severe’’ weather.
    The theory says that a hotter world generates more energy in the atmosphere and draws up more water, which falls as rain or snow, at times accompanied by powerful winds.
    It’s not the appearance of floods and cyclones, it’s the intensity of their effect which global warming backers argue is important.
    The oversized and destructive meteorological features in Australia and elsewhere – such as the freak “thundersnow’’ hitting Chicago – have encouraged claims that the forecast consequences of global warning have started.
    It’s not just that a cyclone has hit Queensland. There have been some 60 of them in recorded history. The stark factor is the size of the blow.
    And it’s not just that there has been heavy flooding in Queensland, NSW and Victoria. This is a regular event. It’s the magnitude of the inundations that is the additional element…
    Gillard will have to bring a majority of cross-benchers, and the Greens in the Senate after July 1, with her if she is to fulfill that legislative pledge, because Abbott will not help her.
    The Government will have to convince voters that global warning must be addressed, and that Australia must take action because it is more vulnerable than most nations to climate change.
    http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/wild-weather-could-help-blow-in-the-new-carbon-tax/

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    Percival Snodgrass

    I’ve just done a quick Google for – “Cyclone history” Queensland Australia – and found “Factbox – Australia’s deadliest & most destructive cyclones”

    (http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/02/uk-australia-cyclone-history-i
    dUKTRE71113N20110202):

    - Mahina, 1899: Australia’s deadliest. It hit the far northeast coast of Queensland, killing more than 400 people, including the crews of around 100 pearling vessels. It still ranks as the country’s deadliest natural disaster, according to a government Web site.
    - Tracy, 1974: Category 4, Australia’s most destructive. It hit the small northern city of Darwin in the early hours of Christmas Day with wind gusts of up to 250 km per hour, destroying or badly damaging more than 70 percent of the city’s buildings. Tracy also killed 71 people and injured 650, though it was relatively small compared with Yasi.
    - Summer of 1918: Two cyclones (they have no names) hit the Queensland coast within two months of each other, killing a total of 120 people.
    The first, thought to have been a category 5, killed 30 people and dumped 1.4 metres rain in three days. The second killed nearly 90 people.
    - Larry, 2006: No lives were lost when it hit the Queensland coast, but damage to infrastructure and crops was extensive and estimated at more than A$1 billion (626 million pounds). It flattened sugarcane fields and cut Queensland’s raw sugar output by 8 percent.
    - Joan, 1975: one of the most intense tropical cyclones on record to hit Australia, this time on the northwest coast. It damaged buildings in the remote town of Port Headland and also railways.
    - Ingrid, 2005: a category 5 cyclone, it swirled across three states and territories — Queensland, the Northern Territory and Western Australia. It was small in size but very intense. No reports of serious injury or death.
    - Olivia, 1996: generated a wind gust of 408 kph (255 mph) on Barrow Island off west Australia, a world record.

    For comparison, Hurricane Katrina, 2005 – A category 5 hurricane off the Gulf of Mexico, it came ashore in August near New Orleans. It killed about 1,500 people on the U.S. Gulf Coast and caused $80 billion in damage, the costliest cyclone in U.S. history.

    As I’ve said before about extreme weather events, we’ve seen them all before, long before humans started using significant amounts of fossil fuel.

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    Percival Snodgrass

    ABC POLL – Do events like cyclone Yasi alter your view of climate change?

    http://www.abc.net.au/thedrum/polls/

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    Ross

    Percival # 89

    One of those stupid loaded question / crazy answer options polls

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    [...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by TheFacelessSpin, Mick and Sophie McIntyre, Lyndsay Farlow. Lyndsay Farlow said: #auspol http://bit.ly/gMjZA6 For all the other Christine Milne’s out there, who think coal mining causes cyclones … #TCYasi #climatechange [...]

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    brc

    LOL Drum Poll

    Question 658
    Should a flood levy be introduced to pay for rebuilding costs?

    Yes 41%
    No 59%
    1544 votes counted

    Then

    Question 666
    How do you feel about the $1.8billion flood levy?

    Worried about the personal cost 4%
    Upset because you have already given to charity 7%
    Concerned that the money will be wasted 34%
    Happy to pay 55%
    4296 votes counted

    Well there’s some consistent data. 59% say ‘no tax’. Tax is implemented by Gillard. 55% says ‘happy to pay tax’.

    Online polls – not exactly scientific.

    I don’t know why they don’t just put out a poll

    ‘Do you hate anyone who disagrees with the prevailing Drum worldview’
    Yes 110%
    No 0%
    1,000,000 votes counted

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    rukidding

    I have not seen any reports on the news about the wind farm that is in the area how did it fare.?

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    Percival Snodgrass

    Now you know why the push is on to put large amounts of wind turbine off-shore, then you can’t see the smashed albatrosses, various types of sea eagles, etc.

    All the bodies fall into the sea and becomes fish food, and that covers up the evidence.

    World Wildlife Fund – emphasis on fund.

    What has surprised me is the various Audobon Societies (bird fanciers ) around the world which appear to be silent about bird destruction. Apparently there are allowable bird losses for each installation.

    But if you or I took a shotgun and shot a wedgetail eagle or a kite, it would make the news & newspapers and the penalties would be horrific.

    Another item is that wind turbine blades do have effects on radar systems accuracy – think civil aircraft, military aircraft and security from smuggling of goods and people.

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    Percival Snodgrass

    In China, the true cost of Britain’s clean, green wind power experiment: Pollution on a disastrous scale

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/moslive/article-1350811/In-China-true-cost-Britains-clean-green-wind-power-experiment-Pollution-disastrous-scale.html

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    janama

    Percival Snodgrass: @95

    great link – thank you for that!

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    It’s worth checking the history books to compare Queensland cyclones and rainfall.

    Have a look at The Climate and Weather of Australia by Commonwealth Meteorologist Henry Hunt, published in 1913 (http://www.archive.org/download/climateweatherof00huntrich/climateweatherof00huntrich.pdf – be warned, it’s 29mb).

    Page 60 lists major downpours in Queensland prior to 1913:

    Crohamhurst n/w of Brisbane on Jan 31 1893 – 35.71 inches (907mm)
    Buderim n of Brisbane on Jan 11 1898 – 26.2 inches (665.5mm)
    The Hollow at Mackay on on Feb 23 1888 – 25.12 inches (638mm)
    Macnade at Townsville on Jan 6 1901 – 23.33 inches (592.6mm)
    Yeppon at Rockhampton on Jan 31 1901 – 23.07 inches (586mm)
    Dungeness at Cardwell on Mar 16 1893 – 22.17 inches (563.2mm)
    Mooloolah n of Brisbane on Mar 13 1892 – 21.53 inches (546.9mm)
    Innisfail s of Cairns on Dec 29 1903 – 22.22 inches (564.4mm)
    Nambour s of Gympie on Jan 9 1898 – 21 inches (533.4mm)
    Yandina s of Gympie on Feb 1 1893 – 20.08 inches (510mm)
    Yeppoon at Rockhampton on Jan 31 1893 – 20.05 inches (509.3mm)
    Crohamhurst n/w of Brisbane on Jan 9 1898 – 19.55 inches (496.6mm)
    Howard at Maryborough on Jan 15 1905 – 19.55 inches (496.6mm)
    Townsville north coast on Jan 24 1892 – 19.2 inches (487.7mm)
    Cardwell north coast on Mar 18 1904 – 18.24 inches (463.3mm)
    Brisbane south coast on Jan 21 1887 – 18.31 inches (465.1mm)
    Thornborough near Cairns April 20 1903 – 18.07 inches (459mm)
    Anglesey at Gympie on December 26 1909 – 18.2 inches (462.3mm)
    Yeppoon at Rockhampton on Jan 8 1898 – 18.05 inches (458.5mm)
    Bloomsbury in Brisbane region on Feb 14 1893 – 17.4 inches (442mm)
    Mundoolun s of Brisbane on Jan 21 1887 – 17.95 inches (455.9mm)
    Palmwoods in Brisbane on December 25 1909 – 17.75 inches (450.8mm)

    That’s rainfall recorded at those locations on the day. It gives a bit of dimension to the 1893 floods compared with this year. Note also that they had nowhere near as many recording stations way back then so the extent of these downpours is unknown.

    http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp?colour=colour&time=latest&step=0&map=totals&period=week&area=qd shows that over the last week including Yasi, locations on the Queensland coast managed about 300-350mm.

    http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp?colour=colour&time=latest&step=0&map=totals&period=3month&area=qd shows the wettest parts of Queensland have taken the last three months of rainfall to nudge above locations in the daily downpour list above.

    Yasi was big but it’s worth reading what happened on March 10 1918 – http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/eastern.shtml

    This tropical cyclone is widely regarded as the worst cyclone to hit a populated area of Queensland. It crossed the coast and passed directly over Innisfail. The pen on the Post Office barograph was prevented from registering below 948 hPa by the flange on the bottom of the drum. A pressure of 926 hPa was read at the Mourilyan Sugar mill at 7 pm on the 10th March. In Innisfail, then a town of 3,500 residents, only around 12 houses remained intact, the rest either blown flat or unroofed following the passage of the cyclone eye around 9 pm. A report from the Harbours and Marine engineer indicated that at Maria Creek, the sea rose to a height of about 3 m above high water (which is a height of 4.65 m above the normal tide levels for that day). Around 4:40 pm on the 10th March, a tidal wave was seen surging in from the east into Bingil Bay, taking the bridge over the creek 400 m inland. Mission Beach was covered by 3.6 m of water, extending hundreds of metres inland, with the debris reaching a height of 7 m in the trees. All buildings and structures were destroyed by the storm surge in the Bingil Bay to Mission beach area. The storm surge was 2.6m at Flying Fish Point. Babinda also had many buildings destroyed and some reports suggest that not one building was left standing. There was widespread damage at Cairns and on the Atherton Tablelands. Recent reports suggest that 37 people died at Innisfail while 40 – 60 lost their lives in nearby areas.

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    Cookster

    As I mentioned in an earlier post, get ready for a barrage of alarmist propaganda after Yasi. Here is yet another story in The Australian quoting Professor Ross Garnaut who seems to have taken upon himself to push the case of Carbon taxes for Australia on behalf of Labor and the Greens. Some of the quotes by Garnaut seem outrageous? For example “The general tendency of peer-reviewed literature is to confirm the IPCC underestimated impacts”.

    Garnaut says he is convinced that the science is becoming more certain and peer reviewed studies are all falling on the side of the alarmist view. This is a tough battle these guys just never give up! I guess Garnaut is just another good example of “the annointed”?

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/severe-storms-will-get-worse-garnaut-says/story-e6frg6zo-1226000414704

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    Percival Snodgrass @ 80 and subsequent comments:
    Thanks for the link to Bolt. Strong anti-Bligh sentiments running through the comments there.
    Anna is milking the situation for all it’s worth as a publicity device. If someone doesn’t stop her soon she’ll be adding stock market reports and traffic camera locations to her spiel.
    Her saintly aura will fade however as more people begin to ask how and why. Anna may be trumping Jooolya in the public sweetheart stakes today, but I suspect, that when they go down they’ll go together.
    Now to a little something I prepared earlier…
    Ladies and gentlemen! Introducing: The Canute Twins!

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    David

    Chris Gillham – how very DARE you look at the history of deluges in Queensland..
    EVERYONE KNOWS that Yasi was the BIGGEST EVER (ever being since 1980 when history began) – and that it was caused by MAN-MADE GLOBAL WARMING..
    Its your sort that damage western governments’ well-researched and essential carbon taxes to keep the global temperature rise this century to 2C (yes, its been carefully calculated, not picked out of the air) – just wait and see when in thirty years’ time when we’ve decimated industry (except in China and India) and the temperature hasn’t risen, we’ll be able to say: ‘See – it worked..!’
    Now – just get off the internet and do as you’re told…

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    wes george

    A couple of observations:

    1. Big cyclones aren’t always more powerful. Bulldust noted as much on this thread when he commented that Yasi might have spread herself out too far. I’m guessing that cyclones behave a bit like spinning ice skaters, the more tucked up in a tight formation they are, the faster they spin. A big sprawling disorganized storm can be weaker than a smaller storm with better form.

    2. Governments and meteorological bureaucracies are naturally wont to over-estimate the power and danger of storms. This is a good thing if it saves lives. It’s a bad thing if it creates a “crying wolf” syndrome where a section of the public begins to anticipate exaggeration of storm threats. Something like this occurred in the 1980′s in the US where it was popular to hold “hurricane parties” in areas often recommended for evacuation by over-zealous authorities.

    To avoid the danger of over-estimating threats the BOM has to shake quasi-faith-based assumptions about the climate and stick with the empirical task of weather forecasts. Same goes for the CSIRO and its erroneously prejudiced assumptions about the hydrological cycle that have cost this nation billions of dollars already in misallocated funds on desalination plants when more catchment dams are what’s needed both to store water and to mitigate flooding.

    3. The PDO shift towards a warmer eastern Pacific means more storm activity in eastern Australia perhaps for the next decade or more. This subtlety in the science will be too difficult for Warmist propagandists to resist exploiting, so we’re all doomed to many more Mike Carltonesque’s claims that storms are caused by the evil Aussie way of life rather than as part of a naturally occurring event once called “the weather.”

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/flatearthers-its-time-for-a-cold-shower-20110204-1agt8.html

    4. Finally, it is important to explain to friends and neighbors that, No, in spite of what you might have heard, it is impossible for parliament to legislate fine weather for the Queensland coast. I know it’s hard to believe, but there are limits to the federal government’s power.

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    Warren

    Yasi was a monster but not an unusual one

    Yes and no. Yasi was a monster,but do you think that,as the the deepest system to cross the coast since 1918, it wasn’t unusual? Not many systems get to Cat 5 in the historical record,let alone maintain that strength until landfall. TC Ului was powerful but weakend. TC Hamish walked the walk for a while but never crossed. Yasi was 930hPa at landfall as measured by the Department of Environment and resource management’s apparatus at Mission Beach. And for Chris @ 97,some of its rainfalls were well up there with the best :471 mm in 24hrs at South Mission Beach,for instance. If it had been a slower moving storm,we would have seen higher totals.

    Wes,I think Yasi was big and powerful and well-organised,because it had rapid forward motion on flat constant arc, interaction with the coastal mountains did not weaken it before landfall,and because even now in central-western WA,its remnants are maintaining a defined circulation.

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