The good news is that skeptics are the majority, the bad news is that we’ll all have to pay the tax anyway. The IPA commissioned a Galaxy Poll in Australia and only one third of Australians believe that man-made global warming is real. Despite the advertising, the propaganda, the Nobel Prizes, the support of major institutions, the ABC censorship of skeptical science news, and the educational indoctrination at schools, most people are unconvinced.
Despite the falling polls, today the Gillard Government committed itself to getting a “carbon price” – the nice way of saying “tax”. (Note the poll attached to that story: Do you support a carbon tax? 84% say NO.)
It’s a question of youth
From the full results it’s clear that belief is mostly a “young” naive thing, and that by the age of 30 people are waking up to the truth. Half of the 18-24 year olds think that man is to blame, but only a quarter of the over 50′s do. The old cats who’ve been there and done that are wiser to exaggerated scare campaigns. Half of the 25 -34 year old group answered that they are not sure.
It’s also a socio-economic thing. Blue collar workers were more likely to say the cycle was natural than white collar workers (33% versus 22%) and white collar workers were more likely to blame man (37% versus 28%). The fans of The Big Scare would say that because the more highly educated know more about the science, but we skeptics know that this is not about science any more. If it were about the science the believers wouldn’t run scared from public debates, the media wouldn’t be too intimidated to interview people with other opinions, and people who asked polite questions wouldn’t be called rude names. When skeptics asked for empirical evidence for positive feedbacks the alarmists would be able to provide some (and from several sources and over long time spans).
Skeptics won the science years ago (back when the hot spot went missing, and the ice cores showed a long lag). Belief in man-made global warming is about the fashion, the meme, the religion. Since this is a fashion meme which is used as a substitute for an IQ test and a measure of someones “compassion”, this is a test that university educated people most want to pass.
But the crunch point is that the failure of the climate predictions is so obvious (where are those droughts?!) people don’t need a university degree to know that the scare-meisters got it wrong.
Dr Alan Moran, director of the Institute of Public Affairs’ Deregulation Unit said, “The Gillard Government‘s desperate efforts to sell its carbon tax are failing. It has funded the Tim Flannery headed Climate Commission, the advisory group to the Parliament’s ‘Multi Party Committee on Climate Change’ and the Garnaut review exercise. These come on top of the 600 strong Climate Change Department and taxpayer subsidized think tanks.
“Compounding this, well‐publicised claims by climate activists have linked recent floods with manmade global warming.
“Yet, in spite of the abuse of taxpayer funds, last weekend, people gave almost identical responses to the same question eight months ago.
Essentially in 2010, 20% of the population shifted from believing to being unsure.
The IPA points out the the responses haven’t changed in 8 months, but in a larger poll commission by the Australian Science Coalition a year ago, 54% of Australians “agreed that man-made emissions were contributing to global warming”. Which tells us that somewhere around 20% of the population changed their mind soon after.
In January 2010, 1737 people were asked: Would you agree or disagree that increasing amounts of CO2 in the atmosphere through man’s use of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas are significantly affecting earth’s temperature? Before Copenhagen and Climategate 58% agreed, in Jan 2010 that fell to 54% and now that’s down to 24%, and the big category that’s grown is the “don’t know’s”. In January 2010 only 18% of people were unsure or didn’t know, but now it’s 38%.
The Windsor Card
There is still hope that one of the crucial independents will not vote for it.
Independent Tony Windsor, also at the announcement, did not declare his hand: “Nothing’s settled in my view.”
The Government is still funding The Federal Climate Change Department to the tune of $90 million a year. If only the Conservatives would be brave enough to suggest that the funding could be spent better elsewhere.