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CO2 is not making storms worse near Japan either

Yet more evidence that there is no relationship between CO2 and cyclones, hurricanes, and typhoons. This paper from 2012 tests the theory that global warming made storms more severe and tried to find any effect on typhoons hitting Japan that could be linked to climate change since 1980.

There has been no increase in “super typhoons”. The typhoon season is not longer, nor is it delayed in starting. There has been no change in intensity. The wind speeds are not increasing. The minimum pressure is pretty much the same.

CO2 appears to influence storms in simulated worlds, but not so much in the real one. There is no sign of more severe storms in Australia, New Zealand or the South Pacific either. Nor is there any pattern in the Global Energy indicies, US Hurricanes, US Tornadoes either.

When will scientists and reporters make sure that their audiences know that?

The authors conclude:

“The results suggest that typhoons have not been influenced by global warming. In conclusion, global warming has not significantly changed the characteristics of typhoons, and there is no close relationship between the two.”

Figure 19. Number of super typhoons that develop

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9.4 out of 10 based on 73 ratings

How will you celebrate Power Hour — next Saturday?

Australians don’t forget Earth Hour The Power Hour!

At 8.30pm tonight March 28th, celebrate electricity and set that CO2 free. Do your bit to feed starving plants, and regreen deserts. Rejoice that at the flick of a switch we can do something that would seem magical for most of human history, and that which 1.3 billion people today still can’t do.

Do it for the children

It’s just one hour a year when we glory in the achievements of electricity.  What child would not benefit from taking part in an expression of gratitude that we do not live in the cold and dark anymore? In the West, almost everyone has cupboards-of-cold to store food that we don’t have to catch and kill, or grow, or grind?

 

h/t to Turtle. I got the date wrong. Next week… – Jo

9.2 out of 10 based on 105 ratings

Weekend Unloaded (last day to vote in Bloggies)

Some thoughts need to be shared…

PS:There are lots of skeptical blogs to vote for. Bloggies 2015 voting closes tonight 10pm Sunday EDT, which is 1pm Monday in Sydney. (And I had an old incorrect link in the post about it last week. Oops :- | ).

8.7 out of 10 based on 19 ratings

Melbourne heat — BoM makes mystery corrections, but misses new skyscrapers. Incompetence?

More errors in ACORN — The Bureau of Met wonder-database corrects for mysterious “statisticals” but not for 15 story buildings built next to the thermometers. They correct a step change that doesn’t occur in minima, but don’t correct for one that does in maxima. Big site changes are marked in some datasets but not in others. And where is the correction for obvious urban heat island effects? Bear in mind, the size of the artificial steps and corrections is on a par with the warming supposedly due to carbon dioxide. Hmmm.

The BoM database needs to be independently and publicly replicated, all the way from their raw data to the final output down to several decimal places. Then we will all know what is going on. Let’s shine a light in. If it ain’t replicated, it ain’t science.

Melbourne has one of the longest temperature records in the Southern Hemisphere. Looking at the original records it appears Melbourne maximums have not changed much from 1855 – 1995. Then they suddenly jumped or stepped up.

Tom Quirk did some sleuthing, and figured out why that happened. But what he can’t figure out is why the Bureau missed this adjustment, yet makes other adjustments no one can explain. At the same time as the temperatures suddenly jump 0.7C, two big skyscrapers were built directly south of the sensors (see the photo below). The tallest is a 15 story block finished in 1997.  Beside it is a shorter tower finished in 1998. The BoM corrects for “statistical” problems, but not for 15 story wind-blocks?

The all-marvellous ACORN is meant to adjust for exactly this kind of site change. Instead, the obvious upward step is left in the ACORN record, but other effects that can’t even be explained get “corrected”. There are step corrections in ACORN that “fix” mysterious attacks of something the BoM calls “statisticals”. But statistics don’t zip around the streets affecting measurements. Why do the original records needed to be changed at all?

Paradoxically, the BoM notes site changes in some data sets but not others about the same site. They correct for these site changes in the minima, even though it’s the maxima that are affected. They say they compensate for the Urban Heat Island effect, but the corrections are step changes when they should be long slow changes, just like the urban heat effect supposedly being countered.

During the time as these huge blocks were being built, the all-marvelous ACORN dataset also tells us that the bureau changed the thermometer from the older thermometer-based station to an automatic, electronic one.  Oddly the raw site record does not mention any instrument change at all. This is just a quality control problem. The BoM call it world’s best practice (we agree, things are sloppy everywhere!).

A new station has been set up 2km away from this old historic one, at “Olympic Park”, where it’s about 1C cooler. It is still very near the centre of the large city of Melbourne, but not next to skyscrapers. This shows a clear 1C urban heat island effect. Presumably if we compared the temperature outside the city and suburbs, it would be much larger than this.

Spot the new wind-blocking buildings to the south and south-East of the thermometers

Melbourne, an old long important record

The Melbourne temperature record is one of the “long time” instrumental records of Australian temperature. It starts in 1855 and continues to the present day. Originally measurements were made in the Flagstaff Gardens. Then when the Melbourne observatory was established in 1863 near the Botanical Gardens, the measurements were taken at that location until 1907 when there was a move to the present location on the corner of Victoria and Latrobe Streets in central Melbourne.

See the step change below in Melbourne’s long term record. It is about of 0.7 +/- 0.2 0C. That step up is larger than the rise from 1855-1995. Note the rise in the minima after 1940, which appears to be mostly the UHI effect. (See below).

Figure 1: Melbourne Regional Office annual average  minimum and maximum temperatures, first measured in the Flagstaff Gardens, then at the Observatory, and then from 1907 at the present site, the corner of Victoria and Latrobe Streets.

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These buildings block the southerly wind which brings cool air from the ocean. The BoM corrects for them in the minimums (where they don’t appear to have any effect), but not the maximum temperatures (where they appear to cause the step change).

Figure 7: CityGate tower directly to the south east of the BOM thermometer site in 2015 after the site was closed (see Figure 2)

We can see the urban heat island effect in Melbourne.

A station 20 km away (Laverton) does not show the same continuous increase from 1940 – 1970 in minima, though it may have developed its own urban heat island effect in recent years.

Figure 3: Annual average minimum temperatures for the ACORN-SAT homogenized Melbourne Regional Office measurements, raw minimum temperatures for the Melbourne Regional Office and Laverton.

The biggest Urban Heat Island effect is concrete and asphalt absorbing heat all day and radiating it back at night. As we would expect the maximums are not as affected (see below)

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8.9 out of 10 based on 68 ratings

Vanuatu sea levels: how much did they contribute to cyclone damage?

Sea levels are part of the scare campaign, but how many journalists ask, and how many scientists admit, that sea levels in the South Pacific are noisy data that changes as the ground moves and the ocean slops back and forward? The Pacific averages 4 km deep. Is it any wonder that slight changes in winds and currents will shift the top 10cm, just 0.0025% , around? Long term sea level changes are difficult to assess. But this is not what we hear much in the media:

“Rising sea levels making island nations such as Vanuatu more vulnerable to storms and amplifies the impact of tropical cyclones” –The Guardian

“Coastal flooding is a sleeping giant,” it says. —  The Climate Council (News.com)

The good recent data shows big rises and falls that don’t correlate with CO2

A very neat high-quality network of SeaFrame equipment was installed around South Pacific Islands in 1992 to measure both land and sea movements. This is called the Pacific Sea Level Monitoring Project. It is maintained by the Australian BoM. The geodetic observations are done by Geoscience Australia.

These tide gauges show that sea levels are rising and falling around Vanuatu over the last 20 years (feast your eyes, there is a 30cm range on that graph below). Where is that CO2 signal? Seas around Vanuatu have been falling since 2008. Getting long term trends out of short data with large natural swings is misleading. Slightly different start or end points will change the rate dramatically. In 2009 the  rate of sea level was listed as 6.5mm/yr since 1993. By 2011, the trend was 5.2mm/yr.2 There is no newer report, but clearly it would be even lower now.

Vanuatu Sea level  |  Source: Ref 3

The anomaly chart shows sea levels increase for a while, then decrease for a while. There is no connection with steadily rising CO2.

… |  Source: Ref 3

The surface temperature of water around Vanuatu cycles up and down by 5 degrees C like clockwork every single year. There is no trend visible at all. Then again, if seas are rising by 0.03 C per year, we aren’t going to see it on this graph, or measure it with this equipment. Marvel that last year the corals around Vanuatu coped with a five degree Celsius rise over just a six month period (like they do every year). But put on your panic-hat at the thought of them surviving a fraction of degree over a century.

Spot the effect of massive emissions of CO2?

Sea levels, south pacific

Vanuatu sea surface temperature |  Source: Ref 3

Reader Steve writes in with a paper from 1987 showing that the corals around Vanuatu are regularly baked in the sun, “emerging” above the seas and going back underwater:

Using coral growth bands, we can determine the year coral surfaces died due to emergence. We interpret four major coral emergence events as coseismic uplifts that occurred near the epicenters and rimes of large shallow earthquakes on January 5,1946 (Ms = 7.3), August 11, 1965 (Ms = 7.5), October 27, 1971 (Ms = 7.1) and December 29, 1973 (Ms = 7.5).

Vanuatu is in motion, and it’s been the same for a century:

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9.5 out of 10 based on 88 ratings

The Guardian-the-gullible: blind to whistleblowers, ignoring scandals, defender of feel-good teenage thinking

In years to come when people wonder how so much money came to be wasted in a frivolous attempt to stop the storms, people will marvel at the failure of parts of the free press. The Guardian will rise above that pack, standing out as the one that dressed itself in the color of gullible.

There are more than 31,000 whistleblowers inside science, 9,000 with PhD’s, 2 with Nobel Physics prizes, and 3 men who walked on the moon. There are meteorologists who won prizes in Meteorology, and physicists who studied with the greats — and they’re warning that the science is not settled, but the journalists at The Guardian know better.

Instead of asking hard questions of both skeptics and believers, the writers saw the passion and energy of namecalling activists and were swept off their feet to join the march. Now they dish out their infinite wisdom on science, on national policy and finance. If only the rest of us could be as genius and kind as Alan Rusbridger, eh?

But what are the Guardian guarding these days? They want to silence skeptics, and push a committee consensus. It isn’t free speech, and it isn’t science. If there are problems with our monopolistic scientific funding, the Guardian won’t be seeking them out and reporting them. If peer review science has become weaker, lax, and biased by one-sided funding, and poor eduction, The Guardian will defend the corruption. If the creative genius of scientists is being dimmed through petty gatekeeping, self-serving jealousy and greed, we all know who won’t be alerting the world. Poor Alan Rusbridger, Editor of The Guardian; he read English, and when the scientists who used tricks-to-hide-declines told him “it’s just physics”, he believed them. They didn’t mention that the feedbacks were 2 -3 times more important, or that predicting clouds and humidity is  vastly more uncertain. But then he probably didn’t ask.

The Guardian have launched the “Keep it in the Ground” Campaign. They have jumped feet first in with Greenpeace. They hate “fossil fuels” — oil, gas, and coal — and want people to move their money out of investments in any of them (as if they are all equivalent). Do they still take advertising from BP and Shell I wonder? And will they be sending the Guardian out in solar-trucks? Time to start running the presses on wind-power and coconut oil no doubt. Subscribers might not be excited about paying 10 pound a paper.

 Note from Alan Rusbridger, editor-in-chief

The argument for a campaign to divest from the world’s most polluting companies is becoming an overwhelming one, on both moral and financial grounds. As Archbishop Desmond Tutu puts it: “People of conscience need to break their ties with corporations financing the injustice of climate change”.

Divestment serves to delegitimise the business models of companies that are using investors’ money to search for yet more coal, oil and gas that can’t safely be burned. It is a small but crucial step in the economic transition away from a global economy run on fossil fuels.

The usual rule of newspaper campaigns is that you don’t start one unless you know you’re going to win it. This one will almost certainly be won in time: the physics is unarguable. But we are launching our campaign today in the firm belief that it will force the issue now into the boardrooms and inboxes of people who have billions of dollars at their disposal.

Golly, but isn’t Alan important?  He also knows things people with billions haven’t figured out yet (don’t they read his paper?). Alan-guru-Rusbridger can see financial arguments so obvious they are “overwhelming”. One day the people with silly billions will too.

Vote for your favourite blogs in the 2015 Bloggies.

More info here.Closes Sunday.

9.5 out of 10 based on 115 ratings

Vote for your favourite in the Bloggies

(Click to start voting)

Voting closes on Sunday, and there are lots of great sites to vote for.

I know voting is a bit of an effort, but if you get a lot from a site, it’s a way to say thanks. Awards are useful for bloggers — and it means blogs you like can reach a wider audience.

It’s already a success to be listed and linked as a finalist. Thanks to those who nominated and voted in that round.

For 2015 I’ll be voting for The Pickering Post in Australia-NZ, Steyn Online in Most Humorous, and Breitbart  in Politics (though American Thinker is also a great site). I’ll have to choose (darn) between Not a Lot of People Know That, and No Tricks Zone in Europe Tallbloke’s Talkshop and Climate Audit in Lifetime Achievement and Watts Up and Real Science in Weblog of the Year.

To make your vote count you do need to supply an email, check it, and confirm. See below for instructions if you need them.

How topical is climate science? In the last year 600,000 people visited this site. When Tony Abbott faced a leadership crisis last month his main competitor was an avid carbon trading fan. Hundreds of emails helped convince the Liberal Party not to vote for a spill — and this blog was the only one in Australia to post a list of politicians email addresses. Three things have really pleased me about progress in the last year: firstly the removal of The Carbon Tax in Australia; secondly, the recognition of the issue of the scandal of temperature adjustments and homogenisation in the mainstream media (especially in The Australian, and by Christopher Booker, and in The Daily Mail); and thirdly, we published original new scientific research about a possible cause of the recent global warming (and we have more on that soon — stronger and better than ever, overcoming this issue). Otherwise I’d like to thank most of the Old Media for their one-eyed, inept investigations and for leaving giant gaps in their coverage. The blog has now notched up 1,800 posts and 280,000 comments. It’s a testament to the success of the New Media. But there is much still to do — Paris is coming, the EU has already wasted $100 billion. How much more will go on the bonfire?

Thanks to all the supporters who keep me going with donations, emails and ideas.

In 2014 I summed up the work I was most proud of, much of which is still “topical” 😉 :

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9.2 out of 10 based on 32 ratings

Playing politics with every disaster: Vanuatu cyclone blamed on “climate change”

So far 24 are confirmed dead in Vanuatu, a figure that seems likely to rise.  About 100,000 are homeless, according to the local Oxfam director, which, if accurate, is an awful lot in a country of 270,000. There is no doubt the nation needs help.

Despite the pressing need to solve immediate problems, the predictable claims are already starting. How many journalists will bother to check these claims against the history of cyclones in Vanuatu?  Accuweather lists a lot, including one in 1951 that killed 100 people when CO2 levels were just 311ppm. In 1987 another storm killed 48.

President Baldwin Lonsdale is blaming “climate change”.

Pacific nations regard themselves as at the frontline of climate change, given many are low-lying islands dangerously exposed to rising sea levels, and Lonsdale said changing weather patterns were partly to blame for the destruction.

“Climate change is contributing to the disaster in Vanuatu,” Lonsdale told reporters in Japan, saying rain had been unusually heavy this year.

Even President Hollande, host of the Paris UNFCCC later this year, is milking this disaster: “…the cyclone “is a new cry for the international community to take seriously its responsibility in the fight against climate change, which primarily affects the most vulnerable.”

President Lonsdale went on to talk about the destruction, but probably wasn’t thinking about what his comments mean about his government building programs:

“After all the development we have done for the last couple of years and this big cyclone came and just destroyed… all the infrastructure the government has… built. Completely destroyed.” — Canberra Times

Vanuatu is regularly hit with cyclones. Could be time to reassess the building codes?

Here’s the effect of CO2 on South Pacific cyclones. If it is driving this trend, clearly we need more CO2.

Number and intensity of Cyclones in the South Pacific | Source: Met Service Blog 

http://blog.metservice.com/2013/10/tropical-cyclone-season-2013-14/

President Lonsdale could be forgiven for being confused, but others should know better.

Mashable

Scientists Mashable contacted said the storm intensified rapidly before hitting Vanuatu, aided by an area of unusually mild ocean waters and favorable atmospheric conditions. Ocean temperatures in the area where the cyclone intensified were up to 2 degrees Celsius above average for this time of year (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit).

Some — but not all — of the sea surface temperature anomalies in the Southwest Pacific Ocean are likely related to global warming, according to Kevin Trenberth, a climate researcher with the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, as well as other experts. According to Trenberth, about about 0.6 degrees Celsius, or 1.1 degrees Fahrenheit, of the ocean temperature anomalies “can be blamed on human-induced global warming” while the rest is “natural”…

 Trenberth apparently can look at this noise (below) and see that CO2 is to blame for 0.6C of the 2C anomaly. His models can’t get the global average right, but they have insight on this tiny scale…

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9.3 out of 10 based on 75 ratings

Kingsman — a movie where the villain is a climate change megalomaniac

The movie came out in December (I’m way behind the times). It appears most of the audience had a rollicking good time at a spy movie where the evil villain “Valentine” had the ultimate genocidal carbon reduction plan. It was murder-to-save-the-planet.

Perhaps the leading edge of Hollywood has finally arrived? This can’t be good for the forces of freeloading. Someone shot the sacred cow, and though they did it quietly with no bragging or boasting, the crowd rewarded them.

From Mark Steyn’s review a few weeks ago:

Valentine is tired of giving money to politicians for action on climate change and nothing happening. He loves the planet and man is destroying it. So he’s concluded that the only solution is to eliminate the vast majority of mankind, leaving only those pre-selected individuals he’s invited to his mountain lair to re-emerge when the dust settles to live on a now Edenic earth cleansed of what he calls its “virus” – man.

This actually makes way more sense than the average Bond villain’s plan. Indeed, it makes so much sense that the pajama boy at Vox isn’t too sure who to root for. I mean, why would Colin Firth and the good guys even bother saving the world “only so it can be destroyed decades later” (by global warming)?

Steyn had a lot of fun with the confusion of the critics who laughed at the villain but knew they weren’t supposed too. He compared the boundary pushing Kingsman with the predictability of “The Day After Tomorrow”.

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8.8 out of 10 based on 64 ratings

Fellow, Michael Kelly says The Royal Society must not hide uncertainty of climate

Another excellent job by the UK Daily Mail.

Professor Michael Kelly, Fellow of the Royal Society, was one of the 43 who protested back in 2010 at the Royal Society’s climate change position. (Read up on the Rebellion of the 43 at the GWPF p32.) They felt the Royal Society was breaking its own motto: motto ‘Nullius in verba’ – or ‘Don’t take another’s word for it; check it out for yourself’. Now five years later, Michael Kelly gives us an update, and he fears things are worse: “... since then the Society has become more, not less dogmatic – despite the fact that since we sent that letter, it has become evident that there is even more uncertainty than previously thought.”

Why my own Royal Society is wrong on climate change: A devastating critique of world’s leading scientific organisation by one of its Fellows

His main point is that the Royal Society is not giving balanced information about the uncertainties and model failures. (It’s the same pattern of telling us half truths, while hiding the bombs, that we see in the BBC and the ABC, and “love media”.) Kelly argued that Society ought to distance itself from levels of certainty which could not be justified.

Real scientists put forward everything they know that is relevant. As Kelly says: “Those who fail to provide balance are not giving advice, but lobbying.”

The great 20th Century physicist, Richard Feynman, wrote in his autobiography: ‘Details that could throw doubt on your interpretation must be given, if you know them. You must do the best you can – if you know anything at all wrong, or possibly wrong – to explain it. If you make a theory, for example, and advertise it, or put it out, then you must also put down all the facts that disagree with it, as well as those that agree with it.’ This the Royal Society has failed to do.

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9.3 out of 10 based on 113 ratings

Be afraid for your red wine and steak now!

Extra carbon dioxide is the wonder fertilizer that has greened deserts and created a global crop boom, but don’t think for a moment that just because plants love CO2 that more of it won’t be an utter disaster come to wreck your dinner!  Yet again, we are at the tipping point, and everything is just about to fall apart. How unlucky can one planet be! “There are few winners”.

Wouldn’t you know it —  the current rainfall and frost patterns are perfect? But soon you will sweat like a pig, have poorer bread, and heat stressed steak. Worse, you may have to eat more olives and mangoes and drink Merlot from … a different region. This is serious, folks: when a cyclone hits the North West of Australia, some West Australians may even have to eat Queensland bananas.

Peter Hannam, Sydney Morning Herald, “investigates” the news that another government agency has written another long, dire report with prophecies of doom. But unlike the past incompetent exaggerated beat-ups, this one (finally) is going to be right, so he doesn’t bother asking hard questions, or interviewing other experts, or even doing a Google search.

“Hotter, harder times forecast for the farm as climate changes food production”

Australia’s agricultural sector faces profound challenges from climate change over coming decades forcing the migration of some crops and the use of new varieties of others, a new report by the University of Melbourne researchers.

After all, the Earth is a lot like a factory farm with not much natural air flow:

Belying the phrase, “sweating like a pig”, these animals don’t have sweat glands are particularly sensitive to heat. As evidence of their vulnerability, about 500 pigs reportedly died at a piggery near the NSW Riverina town of Grong Grong one weekend last month when a ventilation system failed.

Weak wheat is coming:

Whereas rising carbon dioxide levels assists plant growth – the so-called fertilisation effect – the benefits are curtailed if there is insufficient water, phosphorous, nitrogen and other nutrients. Wheat, for instance, may increase in quantity but have lower levels of protein.

Effectively CO2 fertilizer produces slightly more carbohydrate in your carbohydrate foods. In the West, hardly anyone eats wheat for its protein content, because we have beef, KFC, and fish and chips instead. I calculated the effects of low protein wheat and rice on the world’s poor  and showed that to compensate for 100 g of “diluted” rice, they would need to eat one whole extra 2.6g chick pea.

Peter Hannam dishes up the big insights of Prof Eckard.

“The federal government’s really behind the eight-ball on this because they are playing politics,” Professor Eckard said.

Golly. Imagine politicians playing politics.

I guess we need our pollies to do science instead, because some government scientists don’t seem to be very good at it.

Eckard goes on:

“If you can disentangle climate change from the politics, we’d be so much better off.”

Exactly. Let’s get the political activists out of science and out of the media. No more junk journalists who cheer on illogical, deficient predictions from witchdoctors of doom.

 John McLean writes to me:

Hannan says “Australia’s average temperatures have increased 0.9 degrees since 1910, with the rise of greenhouse gases contributing to the warming, the CSIRO and the bureau said. By 2030, temperatures will increase by 0.6-1.3 degrees on 1986-2005 averages, and as much as 5.1 degrees by 2090 if emissions remain on a high trajectory of growth.”

Hasn’t he looked at the latest CSIRO report and realised that 39 of the 40 CIMP5 climate models that it relied upon are all in the list of models in the latest IPCC report and about which the IPCC said (in the WGI Summary for Policymakers and elsewhere ) …

– 111 of 114 climate models runs predicted greater warming for the period 1998 to 2012 than the temperature data indicates
– “some” models “over-estimate” the influence of greenhouse gases
– the exact reasons for the flawed predictions are unknown.

 

But I’d like to thank the SMH for reminding me that  Earth Hour is coming next Sunday at 8.30pm to Australia.

Think about how you can use the Power Hour to celebrate electricity.

Plan now for your 5000W BBQ!

h/t Pat in comments and Mike S and John McLean

9.7 out of 10 based on 59 ratings

Weekend Unleaded…

🙂

8.3 out of 10 based on 17 ratings

Scientific American: black death and slavery cause the little ice age?

Looks like Scientific American has gone a bit “cosmic”: The Little Ice Age was apparently caused by black death, small pox, and slavery. The theory goes that there was a small spikey dip in CO2 levels in 1610, which was man-made. So hold your breath, that means a whole new era should start from then. This small dip of dubious causality, plus the correlation of oddly unclimatic things like slavery, seems to make the spike worthy of an impressive sciencey title, lo, a new era is born  — The start of the Anthropocene.

Let’s not mention that temperatures started falling from 1400 AD. That’s 200 years  before the CO2 spike down. Cause and effect are so passe in postmodern science.

Mass Deaths in Americas Start New CO2 Epoch

Scientific American:

The atmosphere recorded the mass death, slavery and war that followed 1492. The death by smallpox and warfare of an estimated 50 million native Americans—as well as the enslavement of Africans to work in the newly depopulated Americas—allowed forests to grow in former farmlands. By 1610, the growth of all those trees had sucked enough carbon dioxide out of the sky to cause a drop of at least seven parts per million in atmospheric concentrations of the most prominent greenhouse gas and start a little ice age. Based on that dramatic shift, 1610 should be considered the start date of a new, proposed geologic epoch—the Anthropocene, or recent age of humanity—according to the authors of a new study.

In any climate astrology it is important to have a hockeystick graph. I know of no global proxy that produces a temperature graph like this. But it’s easy to get this shape by comparing smoothed low res old proxies to high resolution modern adjusted thermometers. It’s just a really bad way to do science. I want the same proxy from start to end. Give me the modern temperature in tree rings or clam shells or sediments, but let’s stop pretending there are no proxies left on Earth after 1980. Has Earth ran out of mud, trees, corals or shells, or do those “modern” proxies give the wrong answer?

120 Northern Hemisphere proxies show the world was as warm as now 1000 years ago.

 

See how CO2 dipped in 1610. Note how temperature didn’t.

 

The whole theory rests on the “coincidence” of a CO2 dip of 7ppm in 1610 with the depth of the Little Ice Age, er, apparently 180 or so years later (according to their graph). Greenhouses gases can absorb infra red at the speed of light, and they drive the climate, we just don’t see the correlation, right? Yeah, baby.

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9.7 out of 10 based on 69 ratings

Climate Skeptics, ISIS — What’s the difference?

Just another day in a science debate, right?

One side of a scientific theory, are generally bully boys  conducting witchhunts, wishing of execution, joking about chopping off heads, and thinks it’s funny to mock explode children of dissenters. This is the same side who wants to force us pay billions to change the weather. They dehumanize their critics with relentless petty names that imply they have no rational brain. When their lauded hero professor can’t convince the crowd with reasoned arguments, he discusses using industrial sabotage and destruction to get the message across. Go blow up a dam to save the planet?

The other side are upstanding scientists.

Pat Bagley, the Salt Lake Tribune cartoonist, has things a little mixed up.

“Anti-Scientists.”   A cropped section of Pat Bagley’s cartoon | Salt Lake Tribune

See the full cartoon on CAGLE CARTOONS

Artists used to pride themselves on being a thorn in the side of authority. In the topsy turvey world of “climate science” they instead attack the volunteers fighting corruption and incompetence, and help the industrial green machine, global financial houses, and ever-bigger government (or if you like, respectively the environmental, financial, and political authorities).

Someone should let Pat Bagley know (in the politest possible way). The best cartoonists — the funniest ones who hit a nerve are the ones who know what they are talking about.

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9.4 out of 10 based on 74 ratings

“Merchants of Doubt” bombs at box office

“Merchants of Doubt” — the new attack-umentory released last week — has been a box-office bomb. Even the anti-carbon activists can’t be bothered watching the rehashed malevolent fantasy speculation about the scientists who dared stand against the establishment.

Jim Lakely at Heartland reports that total takings were $23,300 last weekend.

It uses 20 year old documents to absurdly try to tie the smoking campaign to the climate debate. Oreskes fights on the side with billions of dollars but tries to paint herself the victim of intimidation. No one is buying it. The Merchants of Doubt is an unwitting self projection of her own obsession trying to sell doubts about honest, upstanding scientists.

Fred Singer got his PhD in 1948 on cosmic ray showers. His thesis committee included J. Robert Oppenheimer and Niels Bohr. I’d like to see Fred Singer discuss atmospheric physics with Naomi. Bring on the debate that matters and let the smear campaign get all it deserves.

 

 

9.5 out of 10 based on 133 ratings

Want to save tax and “save the world” from carbon? No Thanks say 92% of Swiss

These results are devastating for the carbonistas. In the lead-up to Paris, every time someone suggests “there is momentum”, remind them of this Swiss result. The majority of western populations do not want serious climate action, they don’t want to pay more for energy, and countries are not “picking up the carbon challenge”.

The Greens in Switzerland asked the Swiss to dump the VAT tax and replace it with a “carbon tax”. It would (in theory) mean  Swiss people could pay less tax overall, and save the environment at the same time. Greenpeace and World Wildlife Fund endorsed it, and 92% of Swiss people rejected it.

Swiss Voters Reject Initiative to Replace VAT System With Carbon Tax

Roughly 92% of voters opposed the initiative, known as “Energy Rather than VAT,” while 8% supported the measure, according to preliminary results from 13 of the country’s 26 cantons.

The Swiss cabinet had recommended voters reject the proposal because it would likely have caused a falloff in revenue for the federal government. The current VAT tax, which ranges from 2.5% to 8%, generated income of 22.6 billion Swiss francs ($22.92 billion) for the federal government in 2013, according to government data.

Presumably if the Swiss government thought the carbon tax would bring in more money, they would have felt a lot more like they needed to save the world.

Since the voters rejected it there are a few ways to look at this:

One: Voters cared about carbon but didn’t believe the government about paying less tax.

Two: Voters didn’t believe the government about the tax or the carbon.

Three: Voters thought they might pay less tax but saw that the Greens and Greenpeace were behind it… 😉

Any which way the fans-of-climate-action look at this, it is a disaster. If this were a minor online poll suggesting “most” people want climate action, the NY Times would be on it, as would Reuters. But ask 4 million Swiss voters and put money on the table, and it’s not really news. It was the second biggest “fail” in Swiss history of voting.

Some still report the news: Wall St Journal

Keep reading  →

9.2 out of 10 based on 91 ratings

BoM Forum Panel: one-day-wonder. Rigorous as Annual Cakes and Tea Jamboree

Last August the BoM were feeling the heat — Graham Lloyd at The Australian and skeptics, particularly Jennifer Marohasy, were asking why cooling trends were being revised to warming trends at stations with no recorded moves. People were raising eyebrows at embarrassing questions about why the Bureau thought climate change was all-critical, yet they were tossing out historic Stevenson-screen data. The BoM felt so squeezed they finally answered some basic questions they’d been ignoring for years (like details on Rutherglen).

But the pressure kept growing because nobody needs a degree in Meteorology to know that there ought to be a reason for fiddling with historic thermometer data. The dumb punters were not impressed with the excuse that stations “might” have moved because tricky statistics on other stations 300km away detected an “unrecorded shift”. So the BoM and their apologist friends in The Dept of Environment dusted off a 3 year old idea called a Technical Advisory Forum, pulled out some names of respectable sounding statisticians and “voila” — created a one day wonder. The “technical forum” will spend more time releasing press releases than analyzing data.

On Jan 19th we were promised so much. The full gloss press release ticks all the right keywords:

The establishment of this Forum will provide an independent framework for quality assurance tests and analysis of the Bureau’s data sets for greater transparency.

Blah blah blah. Finally the Terms of Reference are out, and we can see the meat: a new ultra thin variety of Nano-Spam.

The Forum will meet all its goals and peer reviewed angels will sing, if it … “provides comment”. It’s hard to imagine all those academics saying absolutely nothing, so I’m expecting it to be declared a complete and rigorous success. It is bound to be “world’s best practice” because the rest of the world is dismal too. No bureau anywhere ever publishes all the information, all the historic data, and all the details of their mystery homogenie which transforms past temperatures with a cold wand.  The comprehensive and in-depth extent of the panel is such that “Forums will run over one day, every year.” (Don’t scoff, it is a whole day which has a morning and an afternoon, and they have different agendas. So this is extended “Tea and Cakes” — there is even lunch). All the pre-reading materials will be given to the members at least “a fortnight” beforehand.

Jennifer Marohasy wrote to Bob Baldwin today expressing her disapproval. She describes the pointless forum as Like Expecting George Pell to Admit Pedophilia During Sunday Sermon.

As she so rightly says, the Church of the B0M hath spoken, and no dissidents will be heard.

 

Dear Mr Baldwin

Re: Robust assessment of the trusted and respected Bureau of Meteorology obviously requires that the dissident view be heard

There once existed a broad consensus that the Church must be the ultimate judge of scientific truths.  That was before the enlightenment.  More recently, there was an equally mistaken consensus that the Church could provide a safe environment for little children.

Those who dared suggested otherwise were first ignored, then ridiculed, and only much later able to fight for truth and justice.   When their concerns finally registered, there was disbelief that such outrageous abuse was allowed to persist for so long.

In your recent appointment as ‘Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister for the Environment’ with responsibility for the Bureau of Meteorology, you have the opportunity to provide a forum for dissident voices to be heard concerning what is perceived by many to be the bastardization of Australia’s temperature record.

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9.1 out of 10 based on 124 ratings

Greens — rich educated inner city folk

How the political landscape has changed.

The Labor Party is just waking up to the new demographics. Greens in the inner city are more like the profile of some former Liberal (conservative) voters 30 years ago. Greens in the outer suburbs are more the sustainability hippies.

One ALP source said the ALP had identified a big split in the profile of Greens in the inner city and those on the urban fringes, with the outer-suburban Greens more like the earthy, environmental ­activist-style Greens of the Bob Brown generation rather than the wealthy careerists of the inner city.

Inner city Greens are wealthy, educated types:

In Victoria, the ALP has pushed back the preselection of its candidate in the federal seat of Melbourne, now in the hands of the Greens’ Adam Bandt, to ensure it adopts the right candidate and the right campaign strategy. “There is a lot of institutionalised prejudice about how we have to be more Green than the Greens. In reality a lot of these Greens come from Liberal voting backgrounds,’’ the source said. “The Greens vote in Hawthorn was north of 20 per cent — that’s a blue-ribbon Liberal seat. These Green voters are earning more than $80,000 per annum, are tertiary educated and almost two-thirds are working in the private sector, the ALP believes.

The Labor source is halfway there, but thinks Green voters have social consciences:

“They all think we are terrible on refugees and terrible on climate change but the biggest single issue in terms of their vote is job security. They are like wet Libs, but they have social consciences,” the source said.

Evidence shows many Greens have social consciences only in the weakest, most superficial way. The inner city Greens say they care about the planet and the poor, but it’s a moral-vanity-badge type of care. They don’t change plans, admit failure, or apologize when their policies cause death and suffering or harm animals. Where are the protests? They might say they “care” about asylum seekers, but they don’t complain when soft policies mean a thousand drown at sea, and they don’t offer to settle them in their suburbs. They don’t care when the most desperate asylum seekers get left in UN camps because the asylum seekers with money have paid smugglers and “jumped the queue”.

The Greens social conscience is limited to being conscious of their social standing. If I wear this fashionable idea will it impress my friends at dinner parties? It’s not a social conscious, it’s more a conscious social.

 

9.4 out of 10 based on 94 ratings

Weekend Unthreaded

Because there is always something else that needs saying…

8.7 out of 10 based on 21 ratings

Is it the Blue Pill for Google? Will it consign itself to oblivion with “truth” filters?

Google is considering the possibility of “filtering out” politically incorrect and controversial sites by adding a Truth TM ranking for their search results. It is hubris unbounded — oh hear ye, Google ranks truth for humanity! Fergoodnesssake, the narcissism of it.

It might be a “truth” ranking in Orwellian Newspeak but everyone knows that translates as being whatever government and biggest man in the room decides is true. Like every organization which silences debate and censors ideas,  it will be superseded in a flash by those who don’t.

Why would Google even toy with a move that makes it as much fun as a sterilized encyclopedia? Too big for their boots — do they think They Are The Net?

By alienating the most active sector of the Net — the creative, high-risk thinkers — the buzz of the web will shift. It will become known that Google is the place to go for official boredom, and safe state propaganda. Moms and dads will send the kids to do school projects on Google, while all the adults go somewhere else. Google-fawn will become Google-yawn.

The driving  lifeblood of the Internet are the people debating and hunting for the forbidden — the controversial and unpopular theories. The most motivated searchers and most passionate writers want to share exactly the kind of information the mainstream already filters out. (Otherwise, why bother?)  Consider how many Bloggies the climate skeptics won compared to the officially approved competition — one unskeptical site had the entire official world behind them but lamely bailed even though the skeptic vote was divided four ways. So if Google takes the Blue Pill, it will be giving up the “edge”, and standing smack in the boring safe middle of official nothingness.

Ideas will always seek an outlet. On any computer, Google is only a click away from being replaced.

Even the Soviet Union eventually fell, simply because too many people just stopped believing in it.

Instead of letting humans figure out what is junk on the Internet, Google wonders if it can do it for them. The narcissism of believing they have the formula that beats three billion brains will be Google’s undoing.

 

PS: The Bloggies are on again. Thanks to those who nominated so many skeptical sites. Vote now!

Don’t forget to check your email to confirm the vote.

9.5 out of 10 based on 119 ratings