JoNova
A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).
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I am now engaged in a personal project to analyze the costs of adding 3500 megawatts of wind & solar capacity plus 720 megawatts of demand response capacity to the US Northwest’s power grid.
The new capacity must generate 29 terawatt-hours baseload annually and 5 terawatt-hours demand response annually, which equates to 95% and 60% annual capacity factors, respectively.
Here is a link to a WUWT comment which describes what I am doing with this cost analysis project. I’m about half done with the analysis.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2024/05/15/the-green-energy-wall-cant-arrive-quickly-enough/#comment-3910865
The Northwest Power & Conservation Council’s 2021 power plan calls for adding 3500 megawatts of wind and solar power, plus 720 megawatts of demand response power, to the US Northwest’s regional power supply. Very limited grid-scale battery storage is included in the 2021 plan because hydropower now fills the need for energy storage.
However, since the NWPCC’s 2021 power plan was published in early 2022, the Biden Administration has adopted environmental and energy policies which will force the early retirement of the region’s coal-fired and gas-fired power generation capacity. In addition, the Biden Administration has signed an agreement with the State of Washington and with the region’s Indian Tribes which will force the removal of four large hydroelectric dams on the lower Snake River in Washington State.
The practical effect of these policies is that both the 3500 Mw baseload additions and the 720 Mw demand response additions must be zero emission wind and solar; and further, must have very high annual capacity factors which match those of the legacy power generation systems now targeted for early retirement. As a consequence of this developing situation, the installation of very substantial grid-scale battery storage must now be included in the Northwest’s long range power plan.
The NWPCC’s 2021 power plan assumes that electricity can be readily imported from outside the US Northwest region whenever it is needed. The true fact is that the forced early retirement of the coal-fired and gas-fired capacity now attached to the Western Interconnect, plus the breaching and removal of four large hydro-electric dams on the lower Snake River, will result in significant shortfalls in power generation capacity beginning in the late 2020’s.
As this situation evolves over the next decade, power grid reliability will trump power grid cost as a primary driver for power planning.
For my cost analysis study, the aggregated performance requirements being applied to new-build wind & solar systems, plus their battery backup systems, are chosen to match what would be possible with the construction of three Westinghouse AP1000 nuclear power plants at 1200 Mw each (baseload), plus twelve NuScale SMR modules at 77 Mw each (demand response & load-following).
All wind, solar, and battery systems are to be located on a large tract of land in central Washington State now owned by the US Federal Government.
Several more months of work are needed to finish out the cost analysis. In the meantime, all comments and questions are welcome.
Rick Will, Anthony, Lance, and the other engineers who participate on the JoNova blog will be especially interested in some of the work done so far, which is illustrated on the slides.
Slides 6 and 7, which illustrate the daily average wind & solar capacity factors for the region, are of particular interest in deciding how much of an overbuild of wind and solar capacity is necessary, and also how much grid-scale battery storage is needed to ensure the specified terawatt-hours of generation are produced at the specified capacity factors throughout the year, including the winter months.
Depending upon how much danger of future shortfalls in power generation one is willing to risk, opinions may vary as to how much energy storage capacity is needed.
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As you say: the Biden administration!.
The obvious intent is to smash the energy system for that region.
Battery storage? That doesn’t work.
There seems little point to a cost analysis because the renewables system doesn’t work.
This is a political problem and the only possible solution is through elections. Good luck.
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Kalm Keith, of course battery storage will work — if you install enough battery storage; if you are willing to pay whatever it costs to procure enough battery storage; and if you are willing to pay what it costs to replace all that battery storage every fifteen years or so. Plus replacing the wind turbines and the solar panels on a similar lifecycle basis while you are at it.
The point of the analysis is to determine the true costs of new-build wind & solar power systems which are as reliable as our legacy power systems, as those new-build wind & solar systems would be installed in a specific location for a specific public policy purpose: adding 3500 Mw of wind & solar plus 720 Mw of demand response to the US Northwest’s power grid.
That cost figure, plus the analysis which backs it, can tell its own story far more effectively than the usual rhetorical flourish, for example,’battery storage doesn’t work’ (etc. etc. etc.).
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Adding batteries does not increase wind or solar capacity factors so this makes no sense. Each only produces energy when it does. Putting some into batteries does not change that.
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And NOBODY wants to talk about how the Direct Current supplied by the ‘batteries”, becomes seriously high voltage, three-phase alternating Current for grid distribution.
“Lithium Ion” batteries?
Any word from the miners and rock-doctors on the “reserves” of Lithium?
Imagine a battery the size of a house doing an EV and going into “self-immolation” mode.
Nikola Tesla will be spinning in his grave. Hmmm…..
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More popcorn needed – the relatively small battery fire at the Geelong installation would be peanuts compared to the one at this installation, on Federal land in central Washington.
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Errr ? ..inverters, transformers …?
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Well spotted (and mentioned).!
Sources of said items?
Costa?
“Infrastructure”?
“Green” tape?
The “anti-electricity” campaign is PURE “death-cultism”.
Reticulated electricity was KEY in the improvement of general health of urbanites. Wood and coal fueled MILLIONS of homes and industries around the globe for hundreds of years. (Definite step up from Camel dung or cow-pats. House-fires from errant stoves and fireplaces were legion. “Gas” altered the scene in a tiny way, (traditional “Town-Gas” is seriously TOXIC because one of the two key components is CARBON MONOXIDE. Eventually somebody had the bright idea of adding “smelly stuff” to the reticulated Town Gas so that users could easily spot “leaks” or the fact that their “pilot flame” had gone out. but reticulated electricity was MUCH “cleaner” and more “convenient” than the old “romantic” ways
Before electricity, hospitals were charnel houses. Antisepsis and eventually, asepsis sorted some of that out. In the “good-old-days, dentistry was a barrel of laughs, too. NO serious lighting for “examinations” and only the really up-market fang-farriers had “pedal-powered” (literally) drill rigs. Steam engine development enabled the Industrial Revolution to REALLY step up. but workplaces full of machinery driven by overhead belts were NOISY and, if a belt let go, quite dangerous. There were factories being built here in Oz just pre-WW1, that had serious steam plants and networks of steam engines to drive the belt system. NO CNC gear in those days; apart from the punch-card programmed Weaving machines made practical, around the 1820s, courtesy of the mind of one Ely Whitney; one half of “Pratt and Whitney”.
Electric motors allowed machines to be more “portable” and less bulky and noisy.
The “New Luddites” are trying to KILL YOU.
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Are you refering to the inverters and tranformers etc ..? (Dont forget the AC/DC chargers)
..if so, why ?, what is your point ?
These items are built into most of the grid based battery systems.
Even some of the most popular domestic “batteries” incorperate charge and inverter functions…..”Intergrated Systems”
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David, it goes without saying that adding batteries doesn’t increase wind or solar capacity factors when both are considered as individual power generation systems.
As a component of a larger ‘system of energy systems’, batteries buffer the intermittency of wind & solar for purposes of stabilizing the day-to-day and the season-to-season performance of the combined energy delivery system as a whole.
What I call the ‘Pacific Northwest Zero Emission Energy Center (PNZEEC)’ is in fact a ‘system of energy systems’ which would cover several hundred square miles of central Washington State land area now owned by the US Federal Government.
For further insight into my cost analysis project, see Lance’s comment below and my subsequent response to it, starting here:
https://joannenova.com.au/2024/05/saturday-59/#comment-2765367
As is discussed in my response to Lance, any WECC or NWPCC planning document which asserts that wind & solar electricity can be reliably imported from other regions attached to the Western Interconnect has no credibility whatsoever.
The upshot here is that any large additions of wind & solar to the US Northwest power grid must be capable of standing on their own in delivering reliable power to the region regardless of what else might be happening in real time inside the other major regional areas of the Western Interconnect as a whole.
What this means practically is that many, many megawatts of battery storage must be included in the Northwest’s future power plans — astronomical amounts of battery capacity, in fact.
I want to know what that specific figure is, even if we can already surmise that it will be absurdly large and expensive in comparison with the option of simply doing the whole thing with nuclear.
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Fine but the specific term “capacity factor” does not apply.
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David, my estimate will be a high level parametric type of cost estimate. But a parametric cost estimate still requires that a high-level feasibility design be chosen as a basis for the choice of parameters to be used within the estimate. Capacity factors, and how those factors are being applied, are one class of parameters which must be investigated and properly employed. So before I respond further, could you explain in more detail what specific issues you have with the how I use the term ‘capacity factor’ in my writeup.
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Mentioning the CFs raises another question – has the annual average CFs for solar and wind for that location been determined? Also has the number/frequency and durations of the many wind dunkelflautes been determined?
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Graeme#4, as background to my response, the task of creating a high level feasibility design for the centralized wind & solar power facility discussed in my writeup — a feasibility design which is useful for a parametric type of cost estimating approach — has not yet been started.
Per your question, I’ve combined Slides 6,7, and 8 into one illustration. It contains the regional wind & solar capacity factor data needed to determine what mix of wind, solar, and battery systems is needed to achieve the stated objective of generating 3500 Mw of baseload at 95% annual capacity factor plus 720 Mw of demand response at 60% annual capacity factor.
https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/53728101860_ee2dc7236b_o.png
The centralized wind & solar facility would be located on the Hanford Site which is within the BPA’s area of load balancing authority. Accurate wind and solar performance data is readily available from the BPA’s website. That data has been used for creating the illustration shown in the above link.
This data isn’t by any means the whole story of creating a high-level feasibility design for use in a parametric cost estimate. Lance, RickWill, and David Wojick have offered remarks which bear on the topic what the high-level feasibility design should look like.
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Sort of does change thing David. Basically it time shifts energy supply to lessen the impact of intermiitency. As you say the CF is unchanged, however you have more controlled power availability within battery constraints.
All a bit avademic really as truly useful battery capacity isnt affordable.
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” … of four large hydroelectric dams on the lower Snake River ” {LSR}
The word “large” here is inappropriate. The 4 LSR dams were initially justified more for navigation (barges) with electricity as a secondary factor. They have little storage as they are Run-of-River design.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Run-of-the-river_hydroelectricity
Ice Harbor, Lower Monumental,
Little Goose, & Lower Granite
A dam in Idaho can be used for comparison: Dworshak
And in WA, see Grand Coulee
There are photos on the web of all of these
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John Hultquist, as I said to Kalm Keith, the point of the cost analysis is to determine the true costs of new-build wind & solar power systems which are as reliable as our legacy power systems, as those new-build wind & solar systems would be installed in a specific location for a specific public policy purpose: adding 3500 Mw of wind & solar plus 720 Mw of demand response to the US Northwest’s power grid.
The Biden Administration has targeted Ice Harbor, Lower Monumental, Little Goose, & Lower Granite for removal thus eliminating roughly 3000 Mw of nameplate capacity from the Northwest’s power grid. Dworshak dam in Idaho is not currently targeted for removal.
Seasonal water demand for other purposes reduces the 3000 Mw total nameplate of those four lower Snake River dams to roughly 1100 Mw combined useful capacity, as measured on a seasonal basis. As it affects the US Northwest, the 1100 Mw of useful capacity being lost is a big chunk of generation given how much the region’s power demand is expected to grow in the next decade.
Repeating what I said in my original comment, the NWPCC’s 2021 power plan assumes that electricity can be readily imported from outside the US Northwest region whenever it is needed. The true fact is that the forced early retirement of the coal-fired and gas-fired capacity now attached to the Western Interconnect, plus the breaching and removal of four large hydro-electric dams on the lower Snake River, will result in significant shortfalls in power generation capacity beginning in the late 2020’s.
The practical effect of these policies is that both the 3500 Mw baseload additions and the 720 Mw demand response additions must be zero emission wind and solar; and further, must have very high annual capacity factors which match those of the legacy power generation systems now targeted for early retirement.
Here is the relevant point: As a consequence of this developing situation, the installation of very substantial grid-scale battery storage must now be included in the Northwest’s long range power plan. The costs of those battery systems will be astronomical. But just how astronomical will those costs actually be? A cost figure must be stated, regardless of how absurd that cost figure might be.
And so a simple claim that the actual costs of this particular public policy decision will be astronomical isn’t enough. The claim must be backed by evidence collected and presented using a professional cost analysis approach. For purposes of effective policy issue communication and debate, the impacts of the Biden Administration’s energy policies on the NWPCC’s power plan is a useful vehicle for illuminating the breadth and depth of the cost issues associated with relying on wind & solar for reliable power generation.
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Good luck with it, well done. Good thing to do.
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Good to see someone looking at this subject. Add in transmission costs of connection for the wind/solar. Approx $4 Million USD/mile and a 10 year design/permitting/construction timeframe.
This paper might be of interest regarding your project.
Levelized Full System Costs of Electricity
https://econpapers.repec.org/article/eeeenergy/v_3a259_3ay_3a2022_3ai_3ac_3as0360544222018035.htm
This paper introduces the Levelized Full System Costs of Electricity (LFSCOE), a novel cost evaluation metric that compares the costs of serving the entire market using just one source plus storage.
https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Levelized-Full-System-Costs-of-Electricity-Idel/afcc338a214060d013874b4c1c531d2fe32291be
The full paper by Idel may be downloaded as PDF here:
https://iaee2021online.org/download/contribution/fullpaper/1145/1145%5C_fullpaper%5C_20210326%5C_222336.pdf
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Lance, thanks for the links. These papers will prove quite useful as my cost data collection effort moves forward.
I’ve combined Slides 6,7, and 8 into one illustration. It contains the regional wind & solar capacity factor data needed to determine what mix of wind, solar, and battery systems is needed to achieve the stated objective of generating 3500 Mw of baseload at 95% annual capacity factor plus 720 Mw of demand response at 60% annual capacity factor.
https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/53728101860_ee2dc7236b_o.png
Why did I choose emerging issues with the credibility of the NWPCC’s 2021 power plan as the focus of this cost analysis? And why did I choose the Hanford Site as the logical place for locating a centralized facility which can, in theory at least, host all the zero emission energy systems needed to meet the stated performance criteria?
— The issues affecting the addition of wind and solar to the US Northwest’s power grid are not so large by themselves that it becomes impossible for a small unfunded analysis team to get its arms around these issues. The work of performing the analysis is greatly simplified as a result.
— Reasonably useful and accurate wind and solar performance data for the US Northwest region is readily available from the BPA’s website. The Hanford Site experiences very similar weather conditions throughout the year. It is reasonable to assume that the BPA’s data holds for this smaller area within the BPA’s area of load balancing authority.
— Centralizing the necessary wind, solar, and battery systems in a location which is already owned by the US Federal Government eliminates many, if not most, of the environmental and regulatory review processes which would apply if the necessary systems were to be distributed throughout a variety of locations in the US Northwest.
— The land area contained within the Hanford Site is easily large enough to handle a practical mix of wind, solar, and energy systems as needed to meet the terawatt-hour generation targets. (Or so I think, anyway.)
— Most of the transmission infrastructure needed to connect to the BPA’s regional power grid already exists. Relatively small additions (in the grand scheme of things) are needed to gain access to the BPA’s power transmission infrastructure; and hence to gain access to the Western Interconnect.
OK ….
I’ve spent a good deal of time looking at the the Northwest Power & Conservation Council (NWPCC) planning documents. And also at the Western Electricity Coordination Council (WECC) documents. The NWPCC reports to the WECC and must take account of the planning decisions made by the WECC in formulating its own plans. The WECC in turn reports to the NERC for purposes of national planning and guidance.
My conclusion after reading these documents is that the number of issues which must be resolved by the WECC and the NWPCC before Biden’s Net Zero agenda can be achieved in the western United States is so large that it becomes nearly impossible to resolve these issues in a way which keeps the Western Interconnect as reliable as it has been in the past.
More than that, in doing their planning analyses for such a large geographical area as is the entire western United States, too many possible interactions among too many unknowns can occur which will nulify the conclusions of any and all analysis efforts.
As things stand today, any WECC or NWPCC planning document which asserts that electricity can be reliably imported from other regions attached to the Western Interconnect has no credibility whatsoever.
The upshot here is that any large additions of wind & solar to the US Northwest power grid must be capable of standing on their own in delivering reliable power to the region regardless of what else might be happening in real time inside the other major regional areas of the Western Interconnect as a whole.
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Any wind/solar generator must be evaluated AS A GENERATOR. If they require voltage/frequency support, that is a cost. Storage is a cost. Reactive power assistance is a cost. Backup generation is a cost. Connecting transmission lines, distribution lines, condemnation/acquisition of right-of-way, switchgear changes/upgrades, all are costs. The fuel efficiency losses at Coal/Gas/Nuke plants required to be in hot spinning reserve to backstop unreliable generation is a cost. Maintenance and amortization of all the costs have to be divided by the Capacity Factor of the non-dispatchable generator because if they only generate power 33% of the time, the actual cost of all the support systems are 3 times higher or have a 3 times longer break-even.
The only reason wind/solar people use LCOE is because it is a fiction when applied to non dispatchable generation.
LFSCOE says “If a particular load is going to be met by a specific generator, what are the TOTAL costs to implement that solution”, not simply cost of alleged generation. But costs of integration, backup, frequency and voltage support, lost efficiency in thermal plant backup units, etc. ALL of those costs must be paid by somebody, usually the ratepayer or taxpayer. But ALL of those costs ought to be burdened to the “generator” who is saying “somebody else pay those costs”. That “somebody else” is you and me. The fully burdened cost of wind/solar is nearly 40 times what is claimed by the wind/solar industry because they conveniently ignore the Actual costs.
A simple way to engage reality is to legally require the “intermittent generators” to bid “day ahead” guaranteed delivery contracts for delivery of power into a grid at specific times and quantities. No Excuses. Just like Utilities must do every day. If they cannot deliver, they must purchase and provide the contracted power without limit of liability. That’s how a reliable market works.
Best of luck with your analysis. Keep us informed as you are able regarding your progress.
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Lance, as an engineer familiar with power grid design and operation, you observe that a power generation system requires grid support services for maintaining voltage/frequency, for energy storage, for maintaining reactive power, etc. etc.
The advocates of wind and solar backed by batteries claim that suitable technology exists for supplying these services to a fully wind & solar power grid without the need for maintaining gas-fired, coal-fired, or nuclear backup generation.
In your personal opinion as an engineer — and ignoring the costs for the moment — does said technology actually exist for supplying the necessary grid management services; e.g. voltage/frequency support, reactive power, etc.?
And if these technologies do exist, what specifically are these technologies and how would they be included in a feasibility engineering design for a centralized zero emission wind & solar energy facility such as the one described in my writeup?
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The problem with transmission lines for wind and solar is that they have to be designed for the maximum output, not the average output, so the lines are just idling along with the normal low usage due to low CFs. In Aust., even with our high labour costs, I believe that Australian HVAC lines are currently costing A$2.5m/km, or US$2.7m/mile.
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It’s notable that the Biden Maladministration is choosing the NW of the US for destroying the energy supply – a cool to cold area that needs a reliable and inexpensive supply of energy! It includes Montana and Idaho, considered among the coldest states in the Union.
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Generally the solar resource is more predictable and reliable. The sun comes up every day. It is the cloud that is less predictable.
One of the problems using data from existing systems is that they are not full tracking arrays. If fixed or single axis tracking, the panels are usually tilted to maximise yearly output. That is not applicable when you are looking for high winter time availability from a solar/battery combination. That was something I learnt with my off-grid system and now often observe with small solar/battery installation on things like street lighting and remote cabins. I have some panels on the roof tilted at 50 degrees – about optimum for May at 37S.
The December ToA solar resource on flat ground currently averages 124W/m^2 at 46N. The resource at 70 degree to horizontal will be close to 1000W/m^2 so will get close to the full rating of the solar panel. The offset is that you need about four times the land surface because of the long shadows. But I expect the land is lower cost than the panels. It also gives space between rows for vehicle access. The land area would reduce a little if on a southern slope. You should be able to extract an average of 20W/m^2 of land surface through December (Maybe better with latest panels). You would need arrays covering about 400sq.km or 154sq.miles. So there appears to be enough land for solar but it will depend on the terrain.
In Australia, the term “demand response” is used to refer to load that can be shed quickly. The most valuable consumers for demand response are the smelters because they can dump large chunks of demand quickly. I gather you are not meaning this?
If you are looking at a solar/battery combination then it is cloudiness that matters. You may find November is worse than December although your data shows December the worst. However the December figure may be polluted by snowfall. Panels mounted at 70 degrees to horizontal will shed snow. The other benefit is that hail is more inclined to be deflected than imparting heavy impact.
I expect a tracking array at 70 degree tilt will get up around 25% capacity factor on clear days in December close to rated output from 9am to 3pm and a little more on the wings between 8 and 9am and 3 to 4pm. So 3500MW will need around 13.2GW of solar panels. To level that out over a day, you will need to have around 20 hours of storage 70GWh. If you system load is in excess of 13.2GW and you can wind back hydro then you do not need as much battery. A 26GWh battery rated at the 2 hour rate would be adequate to take over when a storm passes to give time for hydro to wind up. Required overbuild then depends on cloudiness, which could be worse in October or November.
With a project like this, there is great value in establishing a pilot. It does not have to be very big to get valuable data and could be set up in short time. Given your location, the transmission cost may be significant. A steady 3.5GW output is a bit easier to manage than 13GW or higher if the 25% CF is not possible.
In summer time, the 70 degree single axis tracking panels could still produce more because they will generate at around 85% of rating but from 5:30am till 6:30pm.
The economics of these systems depends on the component operating life, operating costs and cost of capital. A 13GW tracking array is $13bn installed and a 26GWh battery is say $20bn installed.
I charge USD500/day for ad hoc consulting on projects that interest me (I prefer PayPal). But I imagine you will learn a lot quickly from building a small pilot plant. Supplying just a single household in the region over a year would be valuable. A project of this scale should be executed in stages with potential for utilising better equipment in subsequent stages. Always merit in inviting scoping studies from engineering firms active in the business. You may find there is a remote weather station or other stand-alone fact running of solar/battery that provides really valuable data.
From my observation, all current grid systems are based on the Ponzi of riding on the back of existing dispatchable plant. The focus shifts quite a lot once you are considering base load production from solar/battery. Or even conserving perched water. Most people making estimates for batteries just take the existing solar output like you have done without understanding the resource and looking to a minikin cost dispatachable system.
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I know that is how the AEMO use the expression, but it is because they are usually dealing with an inability to RESPOND TO DEMAND increases !
Demand response should be considered as something that can respond quickly to an increase in demand,..
..IE:- peaker plants, Hydro, Batteries, ?
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Man, March 2008, sitting around, minding my own business, following a link my friend in Stockton CA sent me, and replying to a Comment at that site.
Day later, email from the site owner ….. say, would you like to be a regular contributor to our site?
No idea , never done that before ….. but, hey, why not. Umm, what do I write about? ….. Who cares, whatever you want to write about.
Umm, all I know is electrical power ‘stuff’.
That’ll do. just send ’em to me.
Oooooookay!
Hmm! Kyoto is pretty current.
I wonder.
Okay, it’s a U.S. based blog site (Harrisburg PA) so, Tony, how about this then?
Let’s go along with Kyoto requirements to reduce CO2 Emissions to 5% less than what they were in 1992. (And now, in 2024, how hard it is to believe this was 32 YEARS ago, eh!)
So, Tony, what to write about then?
It’s a U.S. based blog site. Umm, CO2 is emitted from fossil fuelled power plants, so lets’ do the ‘sums’ to reduce that sector’s emissions, and how simple would it be to work out CO2 emissions from coal fired power and Natural Gas Fired power in the WHOOOOOLE of the U.S. and just replace it with renewable sources of power generation. As those erstwhile Meerkats say ….. simples!
I can use that huuuuuge database of the EIA, which in those days was so simple to access and follow, and not so much the case now.
So, innocent little Tony, thinking he actually might know something about power generation sets out on this smallish task ….. replace existing coal fired power with wind and solar power plants.
Oh Tony, how easy is this, eh?
So simple, it’ll all be done in five Posts, and that’ll be the end of my life as a blogger.
Umm, the more I looked, the harder it became, the more I actually learned, the more I realised, that just like Sgt Schultz ….. I know noooothing.
That original (perceived) maybe five at most Posts, morphed into 52 separate Posts plus occasional Updates, and the start of a journey still unfolding, as I learn more and more every passing week.
A task like this is in fact never ending, and can never be seriously even close to resolution I have found.
So, Beta Blocker, good luck with your task.
What I found is that, at the start, it all looked like a simple Maths equation, something easily solvable. Now, after sixteen plus years, I find that I probably haven’t even scratched the surface.
Tony.
Link to that original series back in 2008
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Tony, thanks for the encouragement. And, truth be told, I have an unspoken agenda in mind for all you skeptic engineers who reside in the Land of Oz and who contribute to the discussion and debate over Australia’s, and the western world’s, Net Zero ambitions.
The JoNova denizen engineers who frequently contribute to this blog have all the experience and the technical background needed to perform a high-level parametric type of cost estimate for achieving Australia’s Net Zero targets for your nation’s power grid.
Your first task as the analysis team is to indentify a reliable source of wind & solar performance data for the Australian continent as a whole, and then for specific areas within the national borders. Your next task is to design an engineering feasililty model of an Australia-wide Net Zero power grid which is technically capable of achieving your government’s Net Zero performance targets.
That engineering model will be done at a feasibility level of detail and include only those RE technologies and those RE systems known to be available within this decade, disregarding at first what those technologies and those systems currently cost. Only after the technical model is complete does the cost estimating work begin.
What you skeptic engineers should end up when you are done is a collection of information specific to Australia which credibily demonstrates just how expensive it will be to construct, own, and operate an Australia-wide Net Zero power grid.
Those numbers will in turn tell their own story — but only if and when the citizens of Australia wake up to the danger the Net Zero transition presents.
For those of you who might become involved in a cost analysis effort specific to Australia, your participation must be founded in a faith that some day, somehow, the citizens of Australia will indeed wake up to the dangers of Net Zero.
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BB, you mention reliability, but you don’t quote a design figure. What reliability are you designing to? Surely that figure needs to be established first, then all design has to meet or ideally exceed that requirement.
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At a high conceptual level, the reliability standard being applied to this large-scale centralized wind and solar power generation facility — the Pacific Northwest Zero Emission Energy Center (PNZEEC) — is to match the annual performance of three co-located AP1000-size 1200 Mw nuclear reactors for baseload generation combined with twelve co-located NuScale 77 Mw SMRs for demand-response/load-following generation.
The performance criteria being specified at this high conceptual level is roughly aligned with the NWPCC 2021 power plan’s stated requirement of adding 3500 Mw baseload wind & solar generation plus 720 Mw of demand-response/load-following generation. Energy policies announced by the Biden Administration since the 2021 plan was published have the effect of forcing the use of wind & solar backed by grid-scale batteries as the solution for both the NWPCC’s baseload and load-following megawatt output specifications.
Design work on the PNZEEC, as I label it in my writeup, has not yet begun. The comments I’m getting on the JoNova blog here in mid-May of 2024 have already proven exceptionally useful for the upcoming task of creating a feasibility-level PNZEEC design.
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So you’re looking at a 60 year time frame ( for a valid comparison with those nukes ). Don’t forget the life expectancy of those windmills and solar panels and apply that factor – three I think – to your calculations.
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Digital ID Has Officially Been Passed In Australia.
https://x.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1791452443038871766
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I guess we’ll all be Canadian soon.
Or for those not paying attention … F’d.
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It’s temporarily satisfying to have our once ridiculed ‘conspiracy theories’’ proven true.
However, the underlying grand conspiracy is the planned and intentional neutralization of constitutional rights across the Western world.
There appears no longer an intellectual acceptance or desire among the ruling elite for fundamental freedom.
Leaving us with no cultural structures to defend the very enlightened social agreements that produced our constantly vaunted ‘science’.
Medical science itself may have recently been wielded by corrupt governmental institutions against unsuspecting citizens.
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Yet another “far right tin foil hat wearer conspiracy theory” come true.
Next step will be compulsory DNA and fingerprints, maybe an implanted chip like pets have. Perhaps the supply of DNA and fingerprints will be made a condition of getting other essential services such as from government departments or if you visit a doctor or bank etc..
If Australians have ever had an official photo ID such as a driver’s license or passport they will already have the photo in a government national facial recognition database. The Government has been working on this person numbering and control system for a long time.
Note that the idea and legislation for this national facial recognition database and ID system started in 2019 under the pretend conservative Liberal faction of the Uniparty.
Have any of the Lamestream media complained?
As with all “voluntary” Government programs, it will soon become effectively compulsory if you want to do anything like work, travel or shop, just like covid “vaccines”.
Emperor Xi and Kamerad Herr Kommandant Klaus Schwab will be most pleased with their vassal state, Australia, once a relatively free country, now under hostile takeover by the Left.
110
Ever watch FBI in Australia?
https://www.cbs.com/shows/fbi/
Facial recognition and cell phone triangulation is essential to the premise. Law inforcement is dead in the water without surveillence.
00
Thieves Steal Tesla’s Electric Vehicle Charging Cables for Copper in California
https://www.breitbart.com/crime/2024/05/16/nolte-thieves-steal-teslas-electric-vehicle-charging-cables-for-copper-in-california/
Copper is currently at $11 USD / Kg (16.5 AUD/Kg). Thieves know this.
130
Stealing Copper in Japan!
You expect this to happen in South Africa – but Japan?
The cost of copper will continue to increase – how bad will copper theft be then?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ScD_E58qYUk
80
Surprising, but the criminals named in relation to the first theft were Cambodian nationals, not Japanese.
70
The Tesla fanboys will be crying into their soy lattes!
https://www.news.com.au/technology/motoring/on-the-road/what-the-hell-tesla-renting-shopping-centre-airport-car-parks-as-unsold-evs-pile-up/news-story/bd3632e1ca28af9072dcbe57715e955b
110
At least Tesla is at the cutting edge or should that be bleeding edge?
https://youtu.be/Gxpv3X53WN0?si=MRo-qysRWY3rVjrE
Maybe they’ll release an Insta-trans model. 😆
20
FWIW
“Sobering reflections on our lack of preparedness for a true emergency”
https://bayourenaissanceman.blogspot.com/2024/05/sobering-reflections-on-our-lack-of.html
40
Most people live in their normalcy bias zones.
The whole northern hemisphere almost entered the stoneage a week ago but to them it was just a lightshow.
The next one may not be.
Hands up everyone with a 1 year or more supply of everything you’d use in a year.
The sound of crickets…
00
Who says a year is enough?
Who says it is wise to eek out another year and die then
Bit of a pointless point really
20
Another FWIW
“It doesn’t help to ignore reality. Sooner or later, it’ll catch up with you.”
Florida surfside condominiums
https://bayourenaissanceman.blogspot.com/2024/05/it-doesnt-help-to-ignore-reality-sooner.html
50
One of the problems with apartment blocks is the body corporate fees. I am not familiar with USA but much rests on the shoulders of the building manager and willingness (or ability) of the occupants to accept higher fees if serious maintenance is required.
My sister retired into a low rise apartment complex on the Gold Coast and they observed a lot of waste in terms of how the place was managed. Ridiculous things like high water bills because the palm pond was not tightly sealed and consumed a massive amount of water through the sand to maintain the level. All external and general area lighting was still incandescent or fluorescent fittings. Her husband ended up the chairman of the body corporate and he was able to eventually lower the fees. just by implementing sensible changes.
80
FWIW
“New Dutch Government Fixin’ to *GASP* Do What They Were Elected to Do”
https://hotair.com/tree-hugging-sister/2024/05/17/new-dutch-government-fixin-to-gasp-do-what-they-were-elected-to-do-n3788565
90
More on the EV scene
“How About a Cheap Used Car? It’s Only Two Years Old, but There’s a Catch…”
https://pjmedia.com/vodkapundit/2024/05/17/how-about-a-cheap-used-car-only-two-years-old-but-theres-a-catch-n4929106
40
“Is the move to electric cars running out of power?”
Typical of the BBC the article isn’t really about answering the question posed, but fluffing up the essential/inevitable move to EVs.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-69022771
Also typical, how they imply it’s a big deal, by suddenly quoting global figures, whereas the pointless EV switch in the UK would amount to a small % of one percent and clearly fail any rational cost/benefit analysis.
“Replacing fossil-fuel-powered cars with EVs is central to the UK government’s plan to meet its climate goals – road transport accounting for 12% of planetary emissions.”
40
Attempting to control the climate makes as much sense as attempting to control volcanoes and earthquakes.
History teaches us that some ancient civilisations killed their children to change the weather. They used to practice child sacrifice to appease their gods in an attempt to court their good graces. Those primitive peoples believed that through human sacrifice, the forces of nature could be coerced in their favour. For example, one of the ways the Aztecs honoured their gods was by killing people in a field with arrows so that their blood might fertilise the land.
However, ‘environmentalist’ efforts to cut carbon emissions make energy less affordable and accessible, which drives up the costs of consumer products, stifles economic growth, costs jobs, and imposes harmful effects on the Earth’s poorest people. By contrast, allocating monetary resources to help build sewage treatment plants, enhance sanitation, and provide clean water for poor people would have a greater immediate impact on their plight than would the battle over the vague concept of ‘global warming.’
https://www.2lt.com.au/the-climate-change-religion-how-long-before-human-sacrifices/
70
That would be human emissions, not planetary emissions.
Road transport is a very small % of planetary emissions.
20
Video:
Why is modern art so bad?”.
Under 6 mins.
https://youtu.be/lNI07egoefc
20
An interesting take on this topic by Theodore Dalrymple…
“The successful modern artist’s subject is himself, not in any genuinely self-examining way that would tell us something about the human condition, but as an ego to distinguish himself from other egos, as distinctly and noisily as he can. Like Oscar Wilde at the New York customs, he has nothing to declare but his genius: which, if he is lucky, will lead to fame and fortune. Of all the artistic disciplines nowadays, self-advertisement is by far the most important… …Beauty is a fragile and vulnerable quality, and moreover one that is difficult to achieve; ugliness, by contrast, is unbreakable and invulnerable, and very easy to achieve. (How easy it is to look bad, how difficult to look good!) By espousing the ugly, we make ourselves invulnerable too; for when we espouse the ugly, we are telling others that ‘You can’t shock, depress, intimidate, blackmail, or browbeat me.’ We use the ugly as a kind of armour-plating, to establish our complete autonomy in the world; for he who says that ‘I find this beautiful,’ or ‘This moves me deeply,’ reveals something very important about himself that makes him vulnerable to others. Do we ever feel more contempt than for someone who finds something beautiful, or is deeply moved by, what we find banal, trivial or in bad taste? Best, then, to keep silent about beauty: then no one can mock or deride us for our weakness, and our ego remains unbruised. And in the modern world, ego is all.”
30
Have a look in the MONA art gallery, all the best crazy, ugly and incomprehensible ‘art’ on display there.
00
Glad I’m not the only one who thought it was garbage. Can’t remember anything about it, except the excrement machine.
Something to do in Hobart to fill the day, the excursion on the boat, that’s what makes it sell. If it wasn’t for that, if it were just in the center of Hobart, it wouldn’t be as successful.
00
FWIW
“How we know that the sun changes climate (II). The present”
https://judithcurry.com/2024/05/17/how-we-know-that-the-sun-changes-climate-ii-the-present/
40
Music:
AC/DC “Highway to Hell”.
Being on a “highway to hell” very adequately describes Australia’s, and the rest of the Western World’s present situation.
https://youtu.be/l482T0yNkeo
20
Some new terms
In comments at Chiefio –
“jim2
It’s hard to swallow that we live in a world where the term “far right” includes those who want only legal immigration and where only citizens have the right to vote (and those laws are enforced!).”
Reply –
“@Jim2:
That’s part of why I’ve taken to calling myself:
“On the far center” and a “radical far centrist”… and a “extreme centrist”… etc.
Parody and truth are useful.”
https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2024/05/07/w-o-o-d-6-may-2024-macron-sends-fflegion-in-russia-nuke-drills-usa-flushes-cash-down-the-drain/#comment-170310
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FWIW –
“Apropos Drug Company Fraud & Thuggery: (Skip to 1hr 1 min in when it actually starts):
https://rumble.com/v4vr72z-oh-sht-who-murder-people-in-ebola-clinical-trails-who-exposed-like-never-be.html
About a whole lot more than Ebola including a whole lot of deep history on the UN / WHO / CDC etc.”
https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2024/05/07/w-o-o-d-6-may-2024-macron-sends-fflegion-in-russia-nuke-drills-usa-flushes-cash-down-the-drain/#comment-170322
In subsequent comments
““Much of what the drug industry does fulfills the criteria for organised crime”
Written by someone with expert inside knowledge.
Cochrane Founder Peter Gøtzsche: Healthcare is Much More Corrupt Than People Think
https://dailysceptic.org/2024/05/15/cochrane-founder-peter-gotzsche-healthcare-is-much-more-corrupt-than-people-think/ ”
“Talking of crooks …
Fauci aide allegedly boasted about ability to ‘make emails disappear’ including ‘smoking guns’ … A longtime aide to former National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Anthony Fauci allegedly boasted in emails about his ability to evade public records requests and his intention to delete any potential “smoking guns,” a congressional hearing revealed Thursday.
https://usrtk.org/covid-19-origins/fauci-aide-make-emails-disappear-including-smoking-guns/ “
40
Here is an article from 2011 about the physical impossibility of using pumped hydro storage as a backup battery system for unreliables in the US.
https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2011/11/pump-up-the-storage/
60
The fact that it is from 2011 and USA is still moving ahead with the fantasy suggests it has not had much impact.
I lookout at from a different perspective using exiting water resources. The biggest of course are the Great Lakes. Taking surface area at 260E9m^2 and elevation above sea level of 183m. The top meter would produce about 1/6th the required output if cycled each day. If you were prepared to accept tidal range of 3m then about half the daily requirement. It also depends on having a lower dam spread over a similar area near sea level. If it was smaller in area then it takes away some of the head.
There is a much more detailed technical study done for Germany that ends with the same conclusion.
I cannot believe so many people are prepared to try the impossible without even making a few basic calculations. It is no different to driving a car off a cliff and assuming it will land at the bottom without damage.
40
A great article with lots of solid calculations, still relevant today. After reading it, I’m not sure why folks in Australia still believe that pumped hydro will work in this country.
30
I am not sure why anybody beliieves pumped hydro can provide full backup (base load) power at all,..let alone for any serious time period.
Even the much debated Snowy 2 ,with its claimed capacity of 300+ GWh ,..only represents about half a days worth of Australias consumption…and it cannot supply at a rate greater than 2GWh.
BUT..that has never been the purpose of PH, which was only ever intended as a “buffer” storage facility to help cope with the daily fluctuations in demand and supply, which it has been doing effectively for decades on fossil based generation grids.
…….including in Australia .!
In reality, that is all batteries can ever be also, they can never be a replacement for a failed grid scale generation system.!…( but at a far greater cost than PH !)
00
My electrician (Australia) told me that his costs are being hugely impacted by yet another massive increase in the cost of copper cabling.
The copper shortage is brought about by the waste of copper used for useless unreliables.
Copper should only be used for useful things.
He said some electricians are starting to use aluminium cable which I didn’t realise Australian electrical codes now allow. It has to be twice the conductor area of copper it replaces and requires special connectors.
The use of aluminium cables for domestic wiring in the US in the 1960s led to a lot of house fires.
Interstingly they used aluminium cables in communist East Germany, which of course is they way we’re going anyway.
80
Forget Gold and buy Copper
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/jeff-currie-copper-bull-most-compelling-trade-ive-seen-my-30-year-trading-career
60
Yes, Copper is important. But.
Utility scale transmission, distribution, and service entrance lines are aluminum or steel core or composite core aluminum conductors.
Nobody can afford copper transmission lines. That’s why they use steel core aluminum wires.
https://electrical-engineering-portal.com/conductor-types-used-for-overhead-lines
Agree copper is a limiting factor, but not for overhead transmission/distribution/service conductors.
60
I am commenting a lot of Quora at present. One of the classic ways of putting down reasonable argument is to say that someone is a ‘denier’ which presumably means they are not to be believed. Or they are not Climate Scientists, even if they are highly qualified scientists. It’s as if Climate Science is a separate science and not dependent at all on the rest of science.
The perjorative ‘denier’ is a weak argument of unspecified prejudice but I am intrigued that the millions of ‘climate scientists’ who earn a living from the world is ending story as insulated from physics, chemistry, engineering, mathematics, meteorology, quantitative analysis. They live in a world which is of their own creation, the Climate World. It seems to be a herd of like minded individuals who are right because they are a group who believe the same things. And their great enemy is not total CO2 in the atmosphere. Their great enemy is human CO2 emissions.
It’s all very odd. As if they are a cult depending on the the ultimate authority, the UN IPCC.
I am more reminded of the Vatican and the Pope in the time of Martin Luther and indulgences, around 1517. I can see a new Reformation coming as the Western world runs out of electricity. And falls out of love with electric cars. This is happening now. The rise of Gert Wilders in the Nederlands is significant. As is the universal reaction against unchecked clearly incompatible migration which refuses to assimilate. The Germans will not take kindly to the idea of a proposed Khanate, an Islamic republic in the middle of Germany.
The election of Donald Trump may be the trigger for a political Reformation. And hopefully the end of the war in Ukraine, Gaza and the war on Democracy in the US and Europe. The UN and EU really need to be defunded as is the vogue. They are not elected governments or governments at all. The UN is run increasigly by China, certainly the WHO. And the EU is run by France and Germany now Britain has withdrawn. As has been true for the last millenium.
160
And I am staggered that the Pope gave a CNN one hour interview in which he came close to calling American Catholics deplorables. And America evil with their per capita CO2 output. No criticism whatsoever of the oppression of Catholics in China, Nigeria, the Middle East. The US is the apparently the Great Satan. Not Kim Jong Un or even Pol Pot or Stalin or Hitler? Certainly not President Xi and his dabbling in bioweapons at his laboratory in Wuhan. Clearly the problem was a bat or an imported frozen US chicken.
Utterly amazing and extremely embarrassing particularly for American Catholics and clerics.
Maybe the Vatican should issue Carbon Credits/Indulgences again? With the usual threat of hell fire.
It worked once before.
140
Part of it comes down to post-modernism.
See my post below.
50
‘And hopefully the end of the war in Ukraine …’
Which side will sue for peace?
21
Rational thinkers need to understand that the modern Left is based upon post-modernism.
It is an extremely dangerous and irrational ideology and at its core is the belief that there is no such thing as objective reality.
How do you debate or even reason with someone who believes “reality” is whatever you think it is?
The following points of view of Enlightenment vs post-modernist thinking are excerpted from the link below. I have edited them for brevity but only deleted material, not changed any words. The paragraph following the number is the Enlightenment thinking and the post-modernist view follows:
https://www.britannica.com/topic/postmodernism-philosophy
1. Enlightenment There is an objective natural reality, a reality whose existence and properties are logically independent of human beings—of their minds, their societies, their social practices, or their investigative techniques.
Postmodernists dismiss this idea as a kind of naive realism. Such reality as there is, according to postmodernists, is a conceptual construct, an artifact of scientific practice and language. This point also applies to the investigation of past events by historians and to the description of social institutions, structures, or practices by social scientists.
2. Enlightenment The descriptive and explanatory statements of scientists and historians can, in principle, be objectively true or false.
The postmodern denial of this viewpoint—which follows from the rejection of an objective natural reality—is sometimes expressed by saying that there is no such thing as Truth.
3. Enlightenment Through the use of reason and logic, and with the more specialized tools provided by science and technology, human beings are likely to change themselves and their societies for the better. It is reasonable to expect that future societies will be more humane, more just, more enlightened, and more prosperous than they are now.
Postmodernists deny this Enlightenment faith in science and technology as instruments of human progress. Indeed, many postmodernists hold that the misguided (or unguided) pursuit of scientific and technological knowledge led to the development of technologies for killing on a massive scale in World War II.
4. Enlightenment Reason and logic are universally valid—i.e., their laws are the same for, or apply equally to, any thinker and any domain of knowledge.
For postmodernists, reason and logic too are merely conceptual constructs and are therefore valid only within the established intellectual traditions in which they are used.
5. Enlightenment There is such a thing as human nature; it consists of faculties, aptitudes, or dispositions that are in some sense present in human beings at birth rather than learned or instilled through social forces.
Postmodernists insist that all, or nearly all, aspects of human psychology are completely socially determined.
6. Enlightenment Language refers to and represents a reality outside itself.
According to postmodernists, language is not such a “mirror of nature,” as the American pragmatist philosopher Richard Rorty characterized the Enlightenment view. Inspired by the work of the Swiss linguist Ferdinand de Saussure, postmodernists claim that language is semantically self-contained, or self-referential: the meaning of a word is not a static thing in the world or even an idea in the mind but rather a range of contrasts and differences with the meanings of other words. Because meanings are in this sense functions of other meanings—which themselves are functions of other meanings, and so on—they are never fully “present” to the speaker or hearer but are endlessly “deferred.” Self-reference characterizes not only natural languages but also the more specialized “discourses” of particular communities or traditions; such discourses are embedded in social practices and reflect the conceptual schemes and moral and intellectual values of the community or tradition in which they are used. The postmodern view of language and discourse is due largely to the French philosopher and literary theorist Jacques Derrida (1930–2004), the originator and leading practitioner of deconstruction.
7. Enlightenment Human beings can acquire knowledge about natural reality, and this knowledge can be justified ultimately on the basis of evidence or principles that are, or can be, known immediately, intuitively, or otherwise with certainty.
Postmodernists reject philosophical foundationalism—the attempt, perhaps best exemplified by the 17th-century French philosopher René Descartes’s dictum cogito, ergo sum (“I think, therefore I am”), to identify a foundation of certainty on which to build the edifice of empirical (including scientific) knowledge.
8. Enlightenment It is possible, at least in principle, to construct general theories that explain many aspects of the natural or social world within a given domain of knowledge—e.g., a general theory of human history, such as dialectical materialism. Furthermore, it should be a goal of scientific and historical research to construct such theories, even if they are never perfectly attainable in practice.
Postmodernists dismiss this notion as a pipe dream and indeed as symptomatic of an unhealthy tendency within Enlightenment discourses to adopt “totalizing” systems of thought (as the French philosopher Emmanuel Lévinas called them) or grand “metanarratives” of human biological, historical, and social development (as the French philosopher Jean-François Lyotard claimed). These theories are pernicious not merely because they are false but because they effectively impose conformity on other perspectives or discourses, thereby oppressing, marginalizing, or silencing them. Derrida himself equated the theoretical tendency toward totality with totalitarianism.
90
Enlightenment: Reality Rules.
Postmodernists: Feelings rule.
Facts matter more than feelings. Get off of my lawn if you can’t prove your claim.
Nothing beats a Royal Flush except a loaded gun.
People are mostly good. Except politicians, charlatans, grifters, liars, thieves, their families and friends.
If you don’t have “skin in the game”, your opinion doesn’t count, neither does your vote or your position.
Replacing “what works” with “what sounds good” is idiocy, personified.
Anything that does not protect your family, feed, clothe, protect, educate, and defend your Nation, is suicide.
Electing people who bear no responsibility for their actions is the most ignorant act any free person can make.
100
Post modernism is a mental state bordering the inaccessible realms of solipsism; no conversation is possible with the obmutescent practitioners of such mind pathologies.
30
Australians, enjoy cooking and heating with natural gas while you can, before they ban it or the supply runs out because it’s exported to China (Howard’s bizarre 30 year contract).
In new houses in Victoriastan, the gas supply is not even allowed to be connected.
Enjoy freezing in the dark and eating your insect ration!
60
My local Victorian Council is stacked with woke greenies.
One had an opinion piece in the local rag yesterday stating:
“A huge area of our ocean is under threat by seismic blasting for gas exploration”
But no mention of the environmental vandalism of offshore wind farms and the threat they pose to whales and other marine life.
Some great shots of whales “jumping”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tWBG2q5sT0I
60
Another “far right tin foil hat wearer conspiracy theory” is insect eating being imposed on non-Elites.
60
Putting the health of children at risk
https://bioone.org/journals/journal-of-orthoptera-research/volume-25/issue-2/034.025.0208/Allergy-to-Crickets-A-Review/10.1665/034.025.0208.full#:
But then the sacrifice of children to appease the climate gods was a feature of several ancient civilisations.
70
One T-Shirt says it All – “The Truth”
60
T-Shirt for the transgender male
https://threadheads.com.au/products/stop-staring-at-my-tits-tshirt
30
Two and a Half Men – Boobra’s Mom [HD]
Plus
Jake drew a picture of a classmate with big boobs. Berta has a few words with him.
00
Oohh, a bearded tit! Appropriate in multiple ways.😆😆
20
We’ve all seen the one where the hopelessly ignorant lefty posts a rant about cows being given girls names and how sexist that is.
The brilliant reply was that milk from a bull wouldn’t taste right.
40
Something that left out
https://michaelsmithnews.typepad.com/.a/6a0177444b0c2e970d02c8d3b3479c200b-800wi
https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2024/05/well-done-that-man.html
20
Let’s do some basic science. The theory is:- the attack on CO2 is an attack on Western Civilisation. Proof #1 – nuclear is not allowed. Proof #2 – China can do whatever it likes. It’s pretty simple science.
60
I came across an amazing Dutch photographer, who documents a local medieval/steam punk scene, and I’m in awe of how excessive these people are. They are obviously failed victims, who instead of composting, or chairing zoning committees, have launched themselves into a creative orgy. And when you think about it – nature is excessive. It could have stopped in conquering the land with mosses and lichens. Really, orchids? It can get pretty extreme – Versailles v wattle and daub. But really, let’s drink to excess! Wattle and daub is a very low bar.
10
Solar Panels Spark Hot in Australia as Energy Companies Start Charging Owners For Excess Power Generation
https://hotair.com/tree-hugging-sister/2024/05/17/solar-panels-spark-hot-in-australia-as-energy-companies-start-charging-owners-for-excess-power-generation-n3788596
40
Interesting assessment of Putin Visit to China
The DragonBear-Hug Signals Unprecedented Expansion of Ties
SIMPLICIUS MAY 17, 2024
Not only is it the symbolic first foreign trip of his latest presidential term, but digging under the hood, we discover there is even much more import to the trip to distinguish it from the merely routine.
Firstly, Putin brought virtually every major figure of the Russian government with him, most notably new Defense Minister Belousov—though Shoigu remained significantly at his side:
This has led many pundits to analyze the trip on a deeper level than usual.
This thread by a Ukrainian reserve officer lists the following entourage:
Furthermore, key representatives of businesses and oligarchs are part of the expanded delegation.
– Oleg Deripaska, oligarch and founder of RUSAL
– Igor Sechin, oligarch, CEO of Rosneft
– Herman Gref, Chairman of Sberbank’s Executive Board
– Andrey Kostin, President-Chairman of VTB Bank
– Kirill Dmitriev, CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund
– Leonid Mikhelson, Chairman of NOVATEK
– Igor Shuvalov, Chairman of VEB.RF
– Alexander Shokhin, President of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP)
That’s in addition to Lavrov, Peskov, Shoigu, Belousov, and others.
That is a full house, and represents major deals being formed. The Ukrainian officer agrees:
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Worth Watching 9 Mins 56 Secs to see a Calm Leader explaining changes
The other most significant event was Putin’s speech in front of his cabinet council, which debuted Belousov and Shoigu in their new positions:
Also note General Lapin’s prominent position at Belousov’s side: Lapin is said to be the commander of the new Leningrad district, whose units—according to some reports—comprise the majority of active fighters on the new northern Kharkov front.
In the speech, Putin makes an important concession, which is a little lost in the AI translation above. In essence, he admits that Russia—like everyone else in the world—did not fully know what they were doing in the beginning of the SMO. Most likely he’s referring to anticipating some of the drone developments, primarily.
“Many things were not clear to us at the beginning of the SMO. Not to us nor anybody.”
The other hugely important point is two-fold. Firstly, he reinforces our earlier reports that the hiring of Belousov is entirely centered on managing the Russian economic integration of the defense and civil fields.
As you can see from the quote above, Putin is prioritizing the health of the country’s overall economy. In short: Belousov’s job is to make sure that the long-term economic repercussions of the military conflict do not adversely affect the general economy and civilian life.
He emphasizes this point by bringing up the next big ‘bombshell’: Russia’s combined defense and security spending is already approaching 9% of GDP, while that of the Soviet Union’s in the 1980s was north of 13%.
This is obviously a quite staggering number that no country on earth currently spends.
That means Putin recognized Russia is slowly drifting into the danger zone and no pains must be spared in competently managing these economic forces.
No man, by all accounts, appears better suited to this than Belousov. I’ve seen several former Western colleagues of his now laud him with praise.
Here’s one of the latest examples, whose very revealing thoughts are worth reading; French economist Jacques Sapir:
20
Is Joe Biden even aware of the catastrophic damage he has done?
America’s blundering president has emboldened the axis of evil in its quest to destroy the free world
ALLISTER HEATH
Joe Biden is the worst US president since Jimmy Carter. He specialises in betraying America’s friends and rewarding its enemies, in humiliating the West and empowering the Global South’s autocracies.
His underlying arrogance has been exacerbated by his deteriorating physical and mental condition.
He acts like a blundering, interfering imperial overlord plagued by the shortest of attention spans.
He sends out mixed signals, sucks up to random rogues, relentlessly bullies allies, micromanages complex conflicts from a distance and a position of ignorance, and inevitably angers both sides of every argument.
Under his leadership, the world’s supreme economic, technological and military power exudes weakness, self-doubt and moral uncertainty.
Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin should have little to celebrate, yet they are holding a sickeningly triumphalist summit this week, emboldened by Biden’s pusillanimity towards anti-Western forces at home and abroad, and his strategic and tactical blunders.
The China-Russia-Iran-North Korea axis is on the march again. America’s reputation in the emerging world is at its lowest ebb since the 1970s: outside of the West, strength, resilience and determination matter, and nobody respects cowardice and vacillation.
50
Zelensky blames ‘whole world’ for Ukraine’s failures in Kharkov
The whole world is to blame for Ukraine’s failure to stop Russia’s recent advances in Kharkov Region and must now help Kiev to change the situation, President Vladimir Zelensky told ABC News in an interview on Thursday.
30
Yes that makes sense, better late than never, the summer offensive should see mainland Russia under attack.
17
It was Lenin who gave away the disputed Russian territories to the Ukraine. Time to get them back.
20
Perhaps if he didnt shell and terrorize his own ethnic Russians citizens for a decade there would be no Russian troops in Kharkov or anywhere else.
40
The Look of Things After Russia’s May 9 Observance
BY PHILBUTLER
On May 9th, Russia once again paid tribute to the tens of millions who perished defeating fascism in WW2. It’s been 79 years since the Soviet Union beat Hitler’s juggernaut back to Berlin. President Putin delivered a solemn address to all present and those watching via television and radio.
The focus of the address framed for the world how the Western elites are currently revising history. A section of this address reads:
“Harbouring revanchist sentiments, making a mockery of history, and seeking to justify present-day N@zi followers is part of what constitutes a common policy of Western elites to fuel regional conflicts, interethnic and interreligious strife and to contain sovereign and independent centres of global development.”
Of course, the Western press and propaganda channels attempted to reverse Mr. Putin’s claims, but the facts speak for themselves. Russia’s president also warned that he will never allow his people to be threatened. This comes at a time when Russia is under constant and increasingly desperate assault by the liberal order that’s dominated world affairs since WW2.
Examining the warnings from French President Emmanuel Macron recently, will clarify the reasons for Mr. Putin’s hard rhetoric.
Macron told reporters recently he’d consider sending French troops to Ukraine “if the Russians were to break through the front lines, if there were a Ukrainian request.” And all across the front in Ukraine, Russian forces continue to inch their way Westward as the propped up Ukraine regime gives up ground. The situation is desperate, but not only for Zelensky’s brood in Kyiv. There are others “vested” in the Ukraine conflict, and they are the true power behind today’s proxy war with Russia.
What’s truly sad about this whole France versus Russia cartoon is the fact Frenchman would be speaking German had the Soviet Union not sapped the strength of Hitler’s forces in WW2.
Without the Russians, Americans and the British could never have landed in Normandy. And now, Macron needs the Germans to back the French investors’ play to succeed in leading a new NATO defensive alliance.
Talk about irony.
No wonder Mr. Putin seemed so focused on history revision during the May 9th ceremonies. It’s the key to this whole mess.
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Its just possible that they still teach history in Russia as opposed to the revisionist stuff taught in many western countries.
The old saying is quite right
“those that don’t learn from history are bound to repeat it”
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The might Wehrmacht was crushed by a war of attrition with the Russians. D-Day was just a mopping up operation.
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Drax To Build Wood Power Cargo Ship
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2024/05/15/drax-to-build-wood-power-cargo-ship/
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This is a video (1 minute) of the shooting, being fed a naritive AGAIN.
HIGH QUALITY FOOTAGE OF SLOVAKIA’S PRIME MINISTER ROBERT FICO BEING SHOT
https://www.bitchute.com/video/B1Zob3rBufCq/
No gore, no anything really.
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FWIW – the WHO power grab
” While our country sleepwalks through the deadly aftermath of the evil Covid-19 operation, the World Health Organization (WHO) puts the final touches on a nice bit of fuckery called its Pandemic Treaty on International Health Regulations (IHR) or “One Health” initiative, a Globalist power grab disguised in the saintly white robes of public health medicine. The agreement, to be finalized at the end of this month, will cede what’s left of your liberty to this unelected bureaucracy for the sake of global “equity and inclusivity,” meaning more lockdowns, constant surveillance, forced “vaccinations,” restrictions on medications, and censorship of anyone who voices a contrary opinion of these actions.”
More at
https://kunstler.com/clusterf*-nation/an-urgent-matter/
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That was close. (amazing misses)
https://www.bitchute.com/video/GDHgv64aTUL8/
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Antarctic has been cooling since 1996!
Since 1996 global CO2 emissions from energy have risen from 22,584 million tonnes to 34,374 (2022 data) – a 52% increase, but temperatures in antarctica have not increased
The Antarctic Ice Sheet covers an area of almost 14 million km² and contains 30 million km³ of ice. Around 60% of the world’s total fresh water (90% of the world’s surface fresh water) is held in the ice sheet, equivalent to a 70m rise in global sea level.
There will only be a “Climate Emergency” if Antarctica warms significantly and the ice sheet starts to melt in large volumes.
This ain’t happening.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2024/05/17/noaas-latest-climate-data-shows-the-global-land-region-temperature-anomaly-peaked-in-february-2016-over-8-years-ago/
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Even if temperatures were to rise in Antarctica it would still take a long time before ice started to melt in significant volumes
Antarctica’s average annual temperature ranges from about −10°C on the coast to −60°C at the highest parts of the interior. Near the coast, the temperature can exceed +10°C in summer and fall to below −40°C in winter. Over the elevated inland, it can rise to about −30°C in summer but fall below −80°C in winter.18
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I find ice sheet and ice cap totally inadequate as descriptions. The average height is about 10,000′ making it the tallest continent on the planet. And it still has mountain ranges to 16,000′ which is higher than any mountain in the US except Alaska and nearly triple anything in Australia. Most of this is solid ice, so as tall as the ocean is deep and solid ice the size of South America. This is not a sheet. Or a cap. It is a frozen ocean on land.
And given the altitude at -1C per 100 metres, a maximum temperature of -25C in the short summer, it’s not going anywhere.
By comparison the ice cap/sheet at the North Pole is floating, so it doesn’t matter if it melts. And it averages 4 metres thick, not 4,000. And it is over water 4.0km deep, not land. In summer it has reached +13C. And the Arctic circle has reached 38C/100F.
Yet people talk of them in the same breath as ice ‘caps’ or ice ‘sheets’. One is an ultra thin film 0.1% thick on the ocean and the other is a frozen ocean 1000x the thickness, the size of a continent and on top of land.
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🙂
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🙂 🙂
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Let’s all move to the Netherlands!
So, Geert Wilders finally has a government of his own. But what does it actually plan to do?
A summary of what we know so far – some of it predictable and some more shocking:
There will be a temporary Asylum Crisis Act lasting up to two years. During that period, the processing of asylum applications will be suspended and the reception of people who apply for asylum here will be ‘greatly reduced’.
The Netherlands will ask Brussels for an opt-out from the existing asylum rules, so the country can set its own independent migration policy
People fleeing here from Ukraine will have to pay more
There will be a brake on the number of foreign students who are allowed to study in the Netherlands
Employers hiring from abroad will face more restrictions, including an obligation to provide shelter if workers can’t find a home
There will be stricter rules governing prayer calls from mosques.
The “eigen risico” in healthcare (the amount you pay yourself before the insurance kicks in) will remain 385 euros in 2025 and 2026. In 2027 it will increase to 165 euros. Health insurance premiums will increase, but this will be partly compensated through lower income tax.
€2 billion will be spent to ensure “working people will pay less tax”. €800m will be spent on housing allowances and children
Childcare will become “almost free” – the previous cabinet pledged this years ago but never delivered
Gas energy taxes will be cut, and tax increases for the wealthy will be reversed. Car fuel taxes will rise after 2025
There will be no “forced expropriation” of farms and efforts to shrink the livestock population will end. Fuel taxes paid by farmers will be cut. The “stikstof” problem must be addressed at the European level.
Where possible, motorway speed limits will go back to 130 (having been cut to 100 by Rutte for environmental reasons).
The civil service will be cut by €1 billion. No pay rises for politicians or civil servants
International development will be cut by €2.4 billion
Budget deficits will be kept below the EU’s 3% limit, and the national debt below 60%
The price of museum, concert and theatre tickets will go up as they’ll be taxed more
People who have installed solar panels at home will no longer get money for selling power back to the grid. Rules compelling heat pumps be installed will be scrapped.
Four new nuclear power stations will be built, and subsidies on electric cars will be binned
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1791005807783358929.html
He’d better have bodyguards…
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Now if a super conservative part could only be installed in Germany by whatever means! The Woke virus needs to be eradicated in more countries.
Australia is a lost cause.
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“Australia is a lost cause.”
President Xi thanks you for your help in demoralizing any resistance.
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“….kicks in) will remain 385 euros in 2025 and 2026. In 2027 it will increase to 165 euros. Health insurance premiums will increase, but this will be partly compensated through lower income tax.”
385 to 165 is an increase?
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Saturday satire – the Babylon Bee – ‘Satan askes Democrats to tone it down all the evil’ 5 mins
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nnN1a8nNCwA
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And still yet another “far right tin foil hat wearer conspiracy theory” comes true.
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Beta Blocker.
or
Blog Blocker.
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High pressure gets the credit for the unusual cool temps in Australia, considering its the warmest year globally.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/may/17/april-2024-australia-average-temperature-coldest
The same conditions were in play this time last year, it might be the start of a trend.
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The next Green Elephant after Snowy 2.0
Building a electricity powered steel arc furnance in South Australia {Who in there right mind would build anything powered by electricity in South Australia?)
The state and federal governments have committed more than $110 million to the project.
Back in Whyalla, the existing blast furnace at the steelworks has been offline since mid-March, with repair works set back again last week when a “break out” occurred, cracking part of the outer shell.
A Green Hydrogen Iron ore deduction plant is the next stage of this made “Made in Australia” scam. But we need steel for the obsolete manned submarines to be built in SA right that will cost
Australian nuclear submarine program to cost up to $368b – so what is a few extra billion to make “green” steel in the industrial wasteland of South Australia.
Australia will have the best DEI and “green” subs on the planet – be warned China!
5% of the crew will be “First Nations Peoples”!
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-05-16/whyalla-steelworks-at-least-a-year-behind-schedule/103849438
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Damm! Only 5%?
I also read the other one about Mr Gupta and his dodgy businesses, and he a classic ‘follow the subsidies’ man. Its just plain criminal for any Govt to subsidise any private business, it distorts the market, it destroys better products and it give a false price signal to investors, ie, your retirement fund!
..and on top of that it costs the taxpayer not only the billions in subsidies given to some billionaire, it also costs us the interest the Govt pays on the debt it took on to get the money to give away. Would WE be allowed to borrow money to gamble? Would that be seen as a wise life decision? The sooner the Govt is banned from subsidising any business, the better.
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“A few extra billion..” ?
…. The green Hydrogen program for green steel etc already has $300 bn in projects committed !
.. it is beyond a joke !
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1 Million Homes To Pay Extra Because They Have Solar
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What are the odds?
https://x.com/unhealthytruth/status/1791350385149395081
Climate change strikes again!😆
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Net Zero Watch: The wheels are coming off the narrative of fear
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I expect Trump will need to be elected before the climate cart gets wobbly.
If Trump has a second term, it will put the USA another 4 years behind the woke world heading for Chinese economic dominance.
It is tough for USA to admit that they cannot make any real progress toward NutZero without sourcing heaps of stuff from China. And there is no way Trump wants to support China.
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Has there been previous mention of the Texas storm. I heard it only this morning:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/texas-power-outage-map-severe-storms-leave-nearly-800-000-homes-businesses-without-power/ar-BB1mzckF
About 800,000 consumers without power.
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Labor Conference in disarray.
‘In a statement on X (formerly Twitter), Ms Allan condemned the protests and the behaviour of some demonstrators.
“Today, protesters and intruders brought violence, homophobia and anti-Semitism to the front door of state conference,” she said.
“I’m disgusted. No-one should be cowered by these bullies.” (ABC)
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Experts reveal the extra-hot sauces that could trigger a heart attack…as teen dies after eating super spicy tortilla chip
The super spicy condiments in your kitchen cupboard could cause agonizing ulcers and stomach ruptures — as well as potentially fatal heart attacks, experts have told DailyMail.com.
Doctors say that, for those who are vulnerable, some extra hot sauces on grocery store shelves contain dangerous levels of capsaicin, the chilli pepper extract that causes the heat.
For people with an enlarged heart and congenital heart defects, it can be ‘like putting a bomb in your stomach,’ according to Dr Allan Capin, an urgent care physician at the Cleveland Clinic.
At high levels, doctors told DailyMail.com that capsaicin causes an intense pain response that constricts blood vessels, raises blood pressure, and increases heart rate. This leads the heart to strain and can result in a heart attack.
The warnings follow the shock death of Massachusetts teenager Harris Wolobah, 14, who suffered a fatal heart attack after eating the alleged spiciest chip in the world, as part of a social media challenge.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-13430363/hot-sauce-trigger-heart-attack.html
It’s actually true, not a Fakevax copout for a change, but is a warning for the silly not to engage in internet challenges.
High Capsaicin doses will cause an Adrenaline rush, cramps, ulcers, severe gastrointestinal distress and more, at least for the first 5 years until you get used to it.😆
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Xi’s Paris Visit: Limping, Wheelchair, Deleted Footage? IKEA Turns ‘Poor Man’s Canteen’ For Chinese
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China is the model Western Leftists aspire to for their countries.
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There don’t seem to be too many complaints about Australia’s passing of a digital ID / person numbering system.
As I wrote yesterday:
Yet another “far right tin foil hat wearer conspiracy theory” come true.
Next step will be compulsory DNA and fingerprints, maybe an implanted chip like pets have. Perhaps the supply of DNA and fingerprints will be made a condition of getting other essential services such as from government departments or if you visit a doctor or bank etc..
If Australians have ever had an official photo ID such as a driver’s license or passport they will already have the photo in a government national facial recognition database. The Government has been working on this person numbering and control system for a long time.
Note that the idea and legislation for this national facial recognition database and ID system started in 2019 under the pretend conservative Liberal faction of the Uniparty.
Have any of the Lamestream media complained?
As with all “voluntary” Government programs, it will soon become effectively compulsory if you want to do anything like work, travel or shop, just like covid “vaccines”.
Emperor Xi and Kamerad Herr Kommandant Klaus Schwab will be most pleased with their vassal state, Australia, once a relatively free country, now under hostile takeover by the Left.
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Oops, I didn’t mean to post thst here.
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