JoNova
A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).
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Statistics
As regards the so called climate catastrophe, The Romans were sceptical about such fervently believed nonsense.
Hic ego aut omnino
‘I am confident that these things are either altogether false, or at any rate less serious than they are thought to be”
William Bradley Latin Exercises 1855
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Extraordinary example of temperature inversion today in Austria as a cold layer is trapped under a warm layer of air.
At our apt at 400 metres the temperature was minus 3 centigrade, as we drove along the flat it dropped to minus 6.
As we drove up to 1100 metres in a 20 minute drive the temperature rapidly rose and at 1100 metres the temperature was plus 7.5 centigrade.
This reminds me of the time we arrived one time at Salzburg airport in December to go skiing, to be told by the pilot as we touched down that it was plus 21 degrees centigrade.
Our son was joining us the next morning so we were concerned his ski experience would be non existent.
However on driving to the airport the next morning to collect him it was snowing heavily and minus 2 centigrade.
The most extreme example of Sudden Stratospheric warming I have ever witnessed.
When previously researching English temperatures from hundreds of years ago I came across 3 reports of similar SST’s
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So what was the average air temperature on those days?
And that’s why global warming, using air as the measure stick, is useless. An air pocket can be several degrees warmer than the surrounds and if that bubble is on the local temperature gauge, then bingo global warming.
Average air temperatures should NOT be based on the simple average of the lowest measure and the highest measure. If air temperatures are to be used, then it should be a time weighted average, eg 5 minutes at 40C and the rest of the hour at 30C would show an average for the hour of very near to 30.8C.
It would be interesting to see how the modern data, (5 minute intervals), can be used to calculate an average based on this and compare that to the average of the min and max. Anyone want to do that over a month or two and report back. (Yes I’m lazy. Maybe someone has already done it?).
If the ‘average’ reported is so variable, why are we using it?
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Some of you may know that the (Australian) NSW Fire Services are sending fire officers to LA.
You may have read in the media…“NSW firefighters head to LA to learn lessons from horror blazes.”
Ok, Imho. Unless they study the failure of DEI in an emergency organisation…
Then sending selected Senior Fire personnel on a junket, will do nothing to improve the suppression or outcome of future NSW bushfires.
Those sent will learn nothing more than our most experienced NSW “first responder” rank and file already know.
NSW fire management and Govs already have all the information they need..
Every NSW Fire Report, Coroners Report, Inquiry and Royal Commission finding is available.
From 1994, I wrote quite a few of those.
We have 70+ years of NSW Bush fire reports and findings. The answer is there.
It seems apparent to me, that In the 2020’s, Australian politicians and the NSW Senior Fire management, still can’t read, study or learn.
And if they are incompetent and bad stuff happens, they always use their safety excuse, which is to blame “Climate change”
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And when they get back we’ll soon learn that we have fires here and because we don’t have enough women in the NSWFS they will have to keep rescuing men who get into the ‘wrong location’.
That should all end by next Christmas, (after the DEI roll out).
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It is not Monday yet in the USA, much as I wish it were.
Shortly after Noon — about 28 hours after I click “Post Comment” — a new course will be established. I will hoist a beer and wish us well.
Also of interest is the Arctic Outbreak, having been somewhat delayed in Canada, will sweep across the middle and eastern states over the next 3 or 4 days. Minus 12°C (10°F) expected in Wash D.C. This is after a 1,800 mile trip south and east from the prairie provinces of our very cold northern neighbor. Regina is -30°C (-22°F).
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If it drops to minus 40 you won’t have to note the scales. (minus 40 is the same in both ℃ and °F )
But where is the Global Warming which was predicted by all those losers?
About the End of the World I point out that Isaac Newton in the 1690’s, exasperated by lots of predictions about the imminent date claimed that “the world may end in 2060. It may be later but I cannot see any reason for it to be sooner”.
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There is a lot of discussion about the way Britain almost had a massive power failure a few days ago.
This all needs to be exposed and explained to the general public. However it is a secondary problem along with everything else that is going wrong like the cost and the instability of the current.
The fundamental problem, the Original Sin you might say, was the failure of the meteorologists to tell us about wind droughts/Dunkelflautes and the failure of the architects of the so-called transition to plan for the worst case scenario in the wind supply, namely low winds for several days in succession or even weeks.
These two failures demand explanation.
Everything else that is going wrong followed as night follows day from the original blunders but I do not see this being put about even by conservative commentators who should be the first and most outspoken about it.
Nothing can improve as long as the subsidies and mandates for unreliable energy are in place. Fix that or die!
https://www.flickerpower.com/images/The_endless_wind_drought_crippling_renewables___The_Spectator_Australia.pdf
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‘In October of 2024, the isolated small city of Broken Hill in New South Wales, Australia with a 36 MW load
(including the large nearby mines) could not be reliably served by 200 MW of wind, a 53 MW solar array, significant residential solar,
and a large 50 MW battery all supplemented by diesel generators.
Many people falsely believe that wind, solar and batteries have been demonstrated to provide grid support and deliver energy independently
in large real word applications. Few people realize that we are a long way away from having wind, solar and batteries support a large power
system without significant amounts of conventional spinning generation (nuclear, gas, coal, hydro, geothermal) on-line to support the grid.’
Russ Schussler, Planning Engineer Post @ Climate Etc 5/12/24
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It used to be a common feature of design to assess the probability of multiple input events happening simultaneously. AS1170.0 addresses several of these with regard to structural loads.
For example, you can have a live load on a building roof, (maintenance, etc), you can also have wind loads on the roof, (storms), you also obviously have dead loads, (the roof materials). AS1170 makes several simple assessments, these being sensible attribution of each of the loads to create a range of different load cases, and each should be able to be withstood by the structure.
For example, you are highly unlikely to have maintenance loads on the roof when the storm loads are also present, so this case is factored down from a simple sum of the two. Also, windloads that act UPWARD are countered by LESS than all the design dead load, because sometimes the roof is built lighter than the designer considered. Again, very sensible, the load reflects reality.
And for electrical power, we have Bowen. Wind and solar work all the time in his head. Why haven’t we turned off and demolished the expensive carbon based generators yet? How did it ever get this wrong?
I just can’t see our minister of blackouts being allowed to change AS1170, so why can he destroy our grid?
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Gearing up the fight against offshore wind:
https://www.cfact.org/2025/01/19/cfact-demonstration-in-richmond-takes-aim-at-dominion-energy/
Stopping a $300 billion industry will not be easy but we are going to give it a hard go. Stay tuned. Or join in.
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